Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Hamilcar]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

[Josquius]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

More likely than neutrality going is it morphs into a unarmed neutrality.
The army is a pointless joke that exists purely to make boomers hard at the thought of young people suffering afterall

[Barrister]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

Interestng to hear that perspective.

[Barrister]

So I saw it pointed out that in the last few days Erogan has:

-dropped opposition to Sweden joining NATO
-has said the Turkish Navy will protect grain shipments if Russian won't extend the grain deal
-said he supports Ukraine in NATO
-returned the Azovstal defenders to Ukraine, contrary to the initial deal where they were to stay in Turkey

All compared to a much more middle-of-the-road approach earlier in the war.

Has Erogan seen which way the wind is blowing, or what concessions has he extracted from the US/EU?

[Sheilbh]

I think zero chance with Ireland - although who knows with the national consultation.

It's not constitutional and is a little bit of an embarrassment in a European context. But it's a very important, deeply felt national myth. Plus the side in Irish politics most opposed to any change to neutrality (and, to an extent, to the "West") are a little in the ascendancy at the minute.

As I say Ireland is starting a national consultation on changing its military neutrality but even opening a debate has sparked anti-NATO protests and a (borderline unconstitutional) warning from the president that they're "playing with fire" by "drifting towards NATO".

[Barrister]

I think zero chance with Ireland - although who knows with the national consultation.

It's not constitutional and is a little bit of an embarrassment in a European context. But it's a very important, deeply felt national myth. Plus the side in Irish politics most opposed to any change to neutrality (and, to an extent, to the "West") are a little in the ascendancy at the minute.

As I say Ireland is starting a national consultation on changing its military neutrality but even opening a debate has sparked anti-NATO protests and a (borderline unconstitutional) warning from the president that they're "playing with fire" by "drifting towards NATO".

Obviously your knowledge of Irish politics is far stronger than mine.

All I can offer though that if Sinn Fein comes to power they might have the most credibility to change Irish neutrality.  "Only Nixon could go to China" kind of thing.

[Josquius]

Purely thinking about it practically for Ireland I suppose it depends how much Russia keeps creeping about it's coast.

If Russia keeps suffering losses at the current rate... Maybe not much of a point.

[crazy canuck]

Wouldn't the problem be that Ireland would not want to be allied with the UK?

[Zanza]

Switzerland and Austria will both join the "European Sky Shield" initiative which arms at improving European air defense. The main part of that will be Germany deploying an Israeli-made anti-ballistic missile system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/world/europe/switzerland-austria-sky-shield-germany-russia.html

[Hamilcar]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

More likely than neutrality going is it morphs into a unarmed neutrality.
The army is a pointless joke that exists purely to make boomers hard at the thought of young people suffering afterall

What?

[Hamilcar]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

Interestng to hear that perspective.

Neutrality, together with refusing to join the EU, is mostly pushed by the far left and the right. Our socialist party bears a lot of responsibility.

[Sheilbh]

All I can offer though that if Sinn Fein comes to power they might have the most credibility to change Irish neutrality.  "Only Nixon could go to China" kind of thing.

I think that's probably true.

I think Sinn Fein have moved significantly in response to Ukraine. I think, for obvious reasons, as a conflict it resonates in Ireland. There's been a recent performance in the Abbey Theatre of Brian Friel's play Translation ("a play about language" - set in 19th century Donegal) by the Ukrainian National Theatre. And Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Fein, gave a speech on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine outside the General Post Office.

But I think military neutrality is a fairly core part of Irish Republican identity. Sadly some of the most disgraceful, pro-Russian voices at the European level have been coming from the Irish left/Republican politics (to a really disproportionate degree). And Sinn Fein itself still has a big anti-West/American streak (when not gladhanding Irish-American politicans ) - I think the latest polls are 60-70% support military neutrality.

I think what might happen is a bit of a shift to slightly less free-riding. So Ireland gets help, primarily from the Royal Navy, in defending sub-sea cables, similarly the RAF defends Irish airspace for Ireland (this is partly what I mean by neutrality to an extent being a myth in practical terms). I think there is a bit of a sense that Ireland should spend more on their own Defence Forces to contribute more to the defence of Irish territory (which could, I suppose, free up some UK forces so help NATO indirectly).

But even the 30-40% who do think Ireland should move away from military neutrality are 50/50 split on NATO. There's more support for EU defence cooperation - part of the deal for Ireland's second referendum on the Lisbon treaty included a protocol attached to the treaty largely opting Ireland out of the mutual defence provisions.  I think that and more spending on the Defence Forces would be the steps Ireland might take.

Wouldn't the problem be that Ireland would not want to be allied with the UK?

As I say on a purely practical level Ireland is currently defended by the UK (or at least it's sea and airspace is) and was absolutely not neutral in anything but a legalist sense in either WW2 or the Cold War. While there is something to the accusation that Ireland hides under NATO's skirts, it is also true that the Irish government allowed listening posts on their territory, as well as spy planes over it and, in the 2000s, Shannon was one of the black sites in the CIA rendition program.

However the idea and symbol of neutrality is tied up with Republicanism and the identity of Ireland as a state. In the case of Republicanism and Sinn Fein being in an alliance with the Brits is a problem - but it is broader than that. Despite getting money out of the US, Sinn Fein and the PIRA identified themselves with third worldism and national liberation movements - they cooperated with Libya and the PLO, they salute Fidel Castro as a revolutionary hero. It's not unlike the ANC in that respect - I think it's probably generation but that generation still holds a lot of sway, especially at the behind the scenes level.

Even in more modern times they campaigned against the Lisbon Treaty both times because they were (at that point) Eurosceptic but in particular because it was tying them into a Western bloc. Ireland commits a proportionately large number of its troops to peacekeeping missions but Sinn Fein campaigned against participating in any peacekeeping in Kosovo as it was seen as endorsing NATO action. Even in 2018 when the Irish government expelled a Russian diplomat in solidarity with the UK after the Salisbury attack, Sinn Fein attacked that asa  "flagrant disregard" for Irish neutrality.

The UK is part of it - but I think the ideological perception of world politics on the Republican side of Irish politics has shifted because of the war but is a little bit more in line with, say, the ANC or Lula or India (all of which they'd probably point out are post-colonial states) than simply pro-West/pro-Atlantic, if not for the Brits.

Their position has softened but they want to put neutrality into the constitution and have said it is "fundamental to our identity domestically and internationally" - but that doesn't preclude support for Ukraine (at about the level of the current government) or cooperation with EU partners or other countries who are in NATO. But I think you've basically got the government of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail broadly open to strengthening EU mutual defence (plus Fine Gael, probably, a bit more keen on NATO), then Sinn Fein trying to stake a middle position and triangulate a bit by constitutionalising neutrality but being open to increased funding for the Defence Forces and some cooperation and then the Greens and other left who oppose current levels of Irish support for Ukraine, or any increase to defence spending.

[Josquius]

Swiss neutrality is like the second amendment in the US. Stupid, self destructive but so deeply engrained in the national psyche that it won't be abandoned for a long time. Maybe after the boomers are dead.

More likely than neutrality going is it morphs into a unarmed neutrality.
The army is a pointless joke that exists purely to make boomers hard at the thought of young people suffering afterall

What?

Conscription and the army is stupid and pointless. But it's a big deal to conservatives, a symbol of the nation and all that crap, and they don't like the idea of kids getting out of it when they had to do it.

Switzerland is all about profits. Most sensible thing for them to do would not be to join nato but to stop conscription and massively cut back the military - they can hide behind their neighbours.

[Tamas]

Let's remember that Hungary is still a holdout on Sweden.

[Sheilbh]

Let's remember that Hungary is still a holdout on Sweden.

Yeah - it'll be interesting to see if they hold out when they're on their own.