Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Nice video of the Kremlin attack.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1653752188508811267

As somebody points out under it: Why do those videos suddenly keep popping up, half a day after the 'attack'?

[celedhring]

I know the Russian leadership is a bit dense, but why would they make up an attack that shows Ukrainians sneaking suicide drones right into the heart of Moscow? How does that make them look good?

Note that I don't think it was necessarily the Ukraininans, might be an internal opposition group.

[Legbiter]

The symbolic detonation of the drone on the Victory Day banner answers the question for me who carried it out...

[Tamas]

Fair points.

[Jacob]

BTW, Nordic (well Danish and Norwegian, not sure of others) media is full of coverage of Russian spying over the years - including all sorts of naval activity. Seems like the Russians had all sorts of activity around the Nord Stream pipeline that blew up.

[Barrister]

The symbolic detonation of the drone on the Victory Day banner answers the question for me who carried it out...

So the counter-point is that Ukrainians haven't shown themselves to be super-interested in purely symbolic attacks - they've* been pretty disciplined about going after purely military targets.

Plus, who had access to this video that was released - unlikely it was Ukrainians/Russian opposition.



*I so want to say "we", but 100+ years of my family in Canada probably makes that suspect.

[Sheilbh]

BTW, Nordic (well Danish and Norwegian, not sure of others) media is full of coverage of Russian spying over the years - including all sorts of naval activity. Seems like the Russians had all sorts of activity around the Nord Stream pipeline that blew up.

Yeah - I've read about all sorts of Russian ships in the Baltic that look like they're mapping sub-sea infrastructure. The Dutch head of intelligence also recently discussed that they intercepted a Russian ship that was mapping sub-sea power infrastructure.

I think it's definitely something they are clearly interested in.

[Legbiter]

Yeah - I've read about all sorts of Russian ships in the Baltic that look like they're mapping sub-sea infrastructure. The Dutch head of intelligence also recently discussed that they intercepted a Russian ship that was mapping sub-sea power infrastructure.

I think it's definitely something they are clearly interested in.

Here in the North Atlantic as well. Dodgy Russian "research" vessels in our EEZ...

They're not fishing cod so the coast guard just observes. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah - I've read about all sorts of Russian ships in the Baltic that look like they're mapping sub-sea infrastructure. The Dutch head of intelligence also recently discussed that they intercepted a Russian ship that was mapping sub-sea power infrastructure.

I think it's definitely something they are clearly interested in.

Here in the North Atlantic as well. Dodgy Russian "research" vessels in our EEZ...

They're not fishing cod so the coast guard just observes. 

Had they been fishing cod, hell would have already been unleashed. 

[Legbiter]

The symbolic detonation of the drone on the Victory Day banner answers the question for me who carried it out...

So the counter-point is that Ukrainians haven't shown themselves to be super-interested in purely symbolic attacks - they've* been pretty disciplined about going after purely military targets.

Plus, who had access to this video that was released - unlikely it was Ukrainians/Russian opposition.

Sure, Russians could have false-flagged themselves like they did with Nordstream for some harebrained domestic political purpose. The CCTV footage released is all under Kremlin control.

[Barrister]

The symbolic detonation of the drone on the Victory Day banner answers the question for me who carried it out...

So the counter-point is that Ukrainians haven't shown themselves to be super-interested in purely symbolic attacks - they've* been pretty disciplined about going after purely military targets.

Plus, who had access to this video that was released - unlikely it was Ukrainians/Russian opposition.

Sure, Russians could have false-flagged themselves like they did with Nordstream for some harebrained domestic political purpose. The CCTV footage released is all under Kremlin control.

Yeah that's the thing about Putin's Russia.  Normally I completely dismiss allegations of false flag attacks... but PUtins' Russia is perhaps the one country where I shouldn't.

[Sheilbh]

There have always been rumours about those apartment bombings in Moscow, haven't there?

[Barrister]

There have always been rumours about those apartment bombings in Moscow, haven't there?

There have.

Edit:

The counter argument though is that at this point what would be the effect of claiming a false flag attack?  If true, Russia used the apartment bombing as justification for the second Chechen War.  But Russia's already at war with Ukraine..  Short of sing nukes (which seems highly unlikely) there's almost nothing Putin can do to further escalate that war.

[Tamas]

There have always been rumours about those apartment bombings in Moscow, haven't there?

I think there were far more things than rumours, but it was many years ago that I read the summary.

[Duque de Bragança]

There have always been rumours about those apartment bombings in Moscow, haven't there?

There have.

Edit:

The counter argument though is that at this point what would be the effect of claiming a false flag attack?  If true, Russia used the apartment bombing as justification for the second Chechen War.  But Russia's already at war with Ukraine..  Short of sing nukes (which seems highly unlikely) there's almost nothing Putin can do to further escalate that war.

Other attacks as well, at the same time, with the Ryazan case where the explosives were found by local law enforcement so no attack, being explained by the FSB anti-terrorist section as an anti-terrorism exercise.