Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Edit:

The counter argument though is that at this point what would be the effect of claiming a false flag attack?  If true, Russia used the apartment bombing as justification for the second Chechen War.  But Russia's already at war with Ukraine..  Short of sing nukes (which seems highly unlikely) there's almost nothing Putin can do to further escalate that war.

Yeah I can't think of an argument for a false flag.

And I think about two weeks ago the Ukrainian Defence Twitter account posted a video of drone footage of the Kremlin with an eyes emoji (war in the 21st century ), so I'd be more inclined to think it's Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Had they been fishing cod, hell would have already been unleashed. 

[Legbiter]

Yeah that's the thing about Putin's Russia.  Normally I completely dismiss allegations of false flag attacks... but PUtins' Russia is perhaps the one country where I shouldn't.

If the vatniks cancel the May 9th Red Square parade because of security concerns then I'll be inclined to think this is a false flag.

[Jacob]

There have always been rumours about those apartment bombings in Moscow, haven't there?

My understanding is that it's fairly well established that it was a Russian state security action.

[Barrister]

Zelensky gives a statement saying Kremlin attack wasn't Ukraine - they don't have enough weapons to begin with, so they only save them for use in Ukraine.

Which I mean is somewhat disingenuous - there have been attacks on targets within Russia itself.  But in those cases the Ukrainians just avoid commenting on, neither confirming nor denying involvement.

[Josquius]

I have to say I do find it weird that Russia hasn't destroyed the Ukrainian parliament and related buildings yet.
Wonder why they feel they need the excuse.

[viper37]

US secret plan is revealed

[Barrister]

The counter argument though is that at this point what would be the effect of claiming a false flag attack?  If true, Russia used the apartment bombing as justification for the second Chechen War.  But Russia's already at war with Ukraine..  Short of sing nukes (which seems highly unlikely) there's almost nothing Putin can do to further escalate that war.

Based on some things seen on Twitter - the one thing Moscow hasn't done is go after government/administrative buildings in Kiyev.  Perhaps they use this as justification to bomb the Presidential Palace or Ukraine's Verkohvnoa Rada.

It would be incredibly petty and without military value, but, you know, they're orcs...

[Hamilcar]

Faking an attack on Putin and the Kremlin just looks weak and desperate.

[Barrister]

Faking an attack on Putin and the Kremlin just looks weak and desperate.

...which are both words I'd use to describe Putin.

[mongers]

Not a perfect analogy, but certainly not fully in Martinus territory:

What if the North Vietnamese had launched a suicide squad attack on the US Capitol sometime before the Tet offensive, what would the US have done in retaliation?

[Legbiter]

Nordic meetup with Zelensky.

[grumbler]

I have to say I do find it weird that Russia hasn't destroyed the Ukrainian parliament and related buildings yet.
Wonder why they feel they need the excuse.

In the last wave of missile attacks on cities, the Ukrainians shout down 12 of the 12 cruise missiles that targeted Kiev.  Taking out the Ukrainian parliament building may not be an easy do.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW RT has promulgated the claim the Kremlin drone attack was an assassination attempt on Putin. This seems even more far-fetched than the idea it was some sort of symbolic Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin. Putin is well known to not live in the Kremlin--the State built a private estate for him in Moscow in 2000 (following a precedent sent by Yeltsin, this was basically intended as a "gift" of an estate to Putin personally, intended to be where he lived when he left office--of course in c. 2000 they may not have expected he would still be President in 2023); and that estate is where he often meets foreign leaders for more "substantive" talks (the Great Palace in the Kremlin tends to be used for ceremony only) and also is where he bunkered up during his years of extreme covid separation / paranoia.

If you're looking to kill Vlad late at night you aren't going at the Kremlin, you're going at that estate (which I am sure is even more protected by active Russian security personnel / technology.)

[Maladict]

Zelensky is in The Hague today, in his speech alluding to a Nuremberg style trial to be set up there.

Meanwhile Russian media are calling for Zelensky to be assassinated while abroad, even if in a Nato country.