Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

The fact that Gibraltar is even disputed is so weird to me, in any norm of international relations it is unambiguously British. Unless we believe treaties basically mean nothing once a country "feels like it wants land because it once owned it." It'd be like Mexico trying to do a take-bake on the Western United States.

The one that gets me is how Spain insists an exclave like Gibraltar must return to Spanish rule, while exclaves like Ceuta and Melilla are just fine.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I see lots of people talk about it as a given that Ukraine probably concedes on Crimea and the Donbass. But I think it's also a war of national liberation/survival and I can't see a way for any deal that concedes on that point not being perceived as a form of surrender of national territory from Ukraine. We may - and I hope not - get to a point where it's acceptable.

Zelensky himself in a direct interview with Western press over a week ago countenanced negotiating room on the "eastern regions" as long as some respect was given to what the people in those regions wanted, which does not sound like a hard line to me that Russia has to vacate them. In that same interview he said Crimea was non-negotiable, which is a little strange since I think Crimea of the three entities Russia has stolen/propped up is the most likely to actually support unification with Russia in a free/democratic referendum.

[celedhring]

The fact that Gibraltar is even disputed is so weird to me, in any norm of international relations it is unambiguously British. Unless we believe treaties basically mean nothing once a country "feels like it wants land because it once owned it." It'd be like Mexico trying to do a take-bake on the Western United States.

Spain's claim is based on the Treaty of Utrecht. According to it, if UK ever gives up ownership of Gib, it goes back to Spain. Spain's interpretation is that already happened when UK changed Gib's status in the 1960s. Essentially, UK can't decolonize Gib, it has to either keep it or give it to Spain.

Again, I personally couldn't care less and my personal belief is that modern understanding of self-determination should trump a XVIIIth century treaty. The only thing that bothers me from Gibraltar is its quasi-tax haven status. The UK-Spain bilateral agreement for Brexit is supposed to take care of that, we'll see how it goes.

[Sophie Scholl]

Dark stuff.

Christ - yeah, on dark paths Russia might go down:

max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin: "They are trying to bet on a so-called fifth column, on traitors of the nation, on those who earn money here but live over there. And live there not just in a geographic sense, but in their minds and their consciousness which is that of slaves."
"I don't judge those with villas in Miami or the French Riviera. Or who can't get by without oysters or foie gras or so-called 'gender freedoms.' The problem is they mentally exist there, and not here, with our people, with Russia. They think this places them in a higher caste."

The right is so fucking terrified of trans people. Especially trans women. It is amazing and awful to endure the unrelenting hatred and focus. Fragile damn masculinity on full display with their fears. Nothing in the water turned frogs gay and eating soy or letting people be themselves openly, freely, and equally isn't going to turn you trans you utter cowards. 

[viper37]

The other question is the quality of this remaining strength - is it more or less the same as what we've seen?  Is it better (the theory that Putin's been holding back "the real army" has been suggested by some folks, though I'm not sure I buy it), or is it worse because Putin led with his best troops?

The airborne are supposed to be some of their best troops and they've been committed.  Some of the currently active units have the Guards designation, which used to mean something in terms of quality.

My cousin is in the French paratroopers and he tells me it's an open secret how shit the VdV really are. They apparently have an outsize influence in Russia itself and their PR is good, but in terms of operational efficiency they're a laughingstock.

Nothing I've seen so far has proved that analysis wrong. They got wiped out at Hostomel airport apparently.

Good time to repost this:

[The Brain]

I think Putin will be able to sell most outcomes as a victory to his base. His base isn't very bright, and those not in his base already hate his guts so who cares. Now some outcomes would be harder, say a return of Crimea to Ukraine, or massive war reparations or similar. If things get that bad he may just double down on the reverse Dolchstoss legend he's already building and claim that Nazi traitor generals etc are to blame, and do show trials and executions, and use this Vast-Non-Putin-Conspiracy to go full North Korea on internal dissent.

[grumbler]

German Panzer tanks were difficult to repair, had engine problems and very low fuel efficiency.  I guess not much as evolved since then for German car manufacturers...

I don't think there was much to be done for fuel efficiency, 70-80 miles for a Panzer IV before refueling, since they were big machines.  But I remember that the slightest engine tuning required to take out the entire engine block, difficult to do in the field.

The Pz IV had better fuel efficiency than the Sherman and as good as the Cromwell (about 150 miles on about 150 gallons of fuel).  I've nowhere read that the engine was difficult to service.  What WAS hard to service was the duel-wheel (inner and outer) system that so reduced ground pressure but also jammed up easily and required almost complete disassembly to repair damage.  The Pz IV was not a "big machine" - it weighed less than the T-34c, Cromwell, or Sherman.

I do wonder if they'd have performed that much better vs the Soviets with easier to repair tanks, all  other things being equal.  Low mobility kinda gets there with lots of armor.  But I don't know how different could Germany could have done things preparing for a war in the East with a very populous country and needing to keep troops in occupied Western Europe.  The Russians did not put much effort in their navy for WWII, while the Germans still had to divert some manpower for theirs.  Ultimately, they could not afford to sustain as much losses as Russia, so they kinda needed to have bigger, more armored tanks.

The problem the Germans had was not the complexity of their tanks but the inefficiency of their production.  They built tanks on stands, bringing all the pieces to each tank, rather than on moving production lies with each tank brought to each piece.  The use of slave labor also left them with lots of "file to fit" components.  In the end, a Pz IV required more than 5 times the manhours to produce than a Sherman did.

[KRonn]

Interesting about the PZIV vs other tanks and German production. I think the Germans lacked an assembly line production system anything like what the US had and probably also behind the UK. I watched an online documentary that told how the UK outproduced Germany by about the mid to later years of WW2. UK by that time had also geared up to produce most of the food needed. I was surprised and impressed with the UK efforts.

[viper37]

Not sure if this has been posted; I'm not reading everything here. But there has been talk about how surprisingly week the Russian army is. I came across this Twitter story the other day, that explains one of the reasons why.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278

This might explain why so many generals get killed by the Ukrainians...  Were I of a paranoid type, I'd be inclined to think it's the generals the leadership wants to get rid of.

[crazy canuck]

Even with a regime change, every concession we give should be very instrumental - we get something we want and/ or move Russia into a position more to our liking.  Nothing should be given because we hope trade or relationships will somehow move Russia in the right direction over time.

I think this is very important.

+1 or is it +2

[Sheilbh]

Wow - Zelensky confirms that Ukrainian forces have extracted the (deposed) mayor of Melitopol from Russian captivity
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1504164932488765451?s=20&t=m1oqXJCYszH8bTzp5KvuAg
Google translated:

The President of Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa spoke with the released mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov.

 "We do not abandon ours," said the President.

Incredible - that's also probably the most emotional/happy looking video I've seen of Zelensky.

[viper37]

Putin did not invade Ukraine because the US and the West was too agressive with Ukraine. He invaded Ukraine because the West was too weak, and he thought he could get away with it. And part of that was the successful bullshit campaign he has been spouting about how threatened Russia is by NATO expansion, and the acceptance of that as a valid point by many on both the left and the right in the West.

This stuff does matter. It matters a lot.

Well, yeah, Russia has a lot of support in the Western countries.  And lots of people hate the US much more than they hate Russia, or at least equally.  It's no big news there.

We know Russia has useful idiots, they have had for years, they are politicians, university teachers, journalists, political commentators, etc.  They've been there for years and they have trained a new generation that has trained yet another one.

They're the same people who got enraged at US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, claiming it was a war crime and are now defending Russia's invasion of a neighbor country.

But this is totally unrelated to the false claims made by Russia, or the weakness of the occidental countries toward bullies like Russia and China.  We have no problems with the cultural genocides of China, we had no problem with the genocides carried by Russian troops in their ex-republics.  It's not just America that does not have friends, only interests.

Russia could have claimed the truth on why the invaded Ukraine, to repatriate an ex-Republic into its modern Empire that it wouldn't have changed how these people view things.

The Western leaders never believed Putin was a friend and ally, they never believed he was genuinely scared of NATO.  They only cared that he has nukes and that he'll be willing to use them in case of conflict with NATO powers.

That's why there's no NATO troops in Ukraine, that's why the few troops that were there were brought back before the invasion, that's why there isn't any talk of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, unlike Kosovo and Irak (1990-2003).

If we had an umbrella shield that protects us 100% from any nuclear attack, we'd have a different discourse now.  But we do not.  Hence why no world leader wants to fully commit against Russia.

It's a mistake.  You know it.  I know it.  A lot of people know it.  Some people are really scared about the nukes and would likely prefer to sacrifice Ukraine, and Moldova, and Goergia, and Lithuania, and any country other than their own than to risk a war with Russia.  Just like some people couldn't care less ISIS was slaughtering other muslims to the point where they protested the bombing campaign.

I do not know what we can do to change this people for whom the US and occidental powers would always be the greatest threat to world peace.  We might has well try to convince people that vaccines aren't poison.

[The Brain]

Wow - Zelensky confirms that Ukrainian forces have extracted the (deposed) mayor of Melitopol from Russian captivity
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1504164932488765451?s=20&t=m1oqXJCYszH8bTzp5KvuAg
Google translated:

The President of Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa spoke with the released mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov.

 "We do not abandon ours," said the President.

Incredible - that's also probably the most emotional/happy looking video I've seen of Zelensky.

[Jacob]

That's amazing

[Barrister]

Wow - Zelensky confirms that Ukrainian forces have extracted the (deposed) mayor of Melitopol from Russian captivity
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1504164932488765451?s=20&t=m1oqXJCYszH8bTzp5KvuAg
Google translated:

The President of Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa spoke with the released mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov.

 "We do not abandon ours," said the President.

I saw that reported earlier but was waiting for confirmation.  Nice going Ukraine!

Incredible - that's also probably the most emotional/happy looking video I've seen of Zelensky.