Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Looks like the Russians are going through with a hasty plan B. This is total folly with very few obvious upsides for the regime.

[The Brain]

Putin has probably started to believe his own BS.

[Grey Fox]

I don't know that sanctions are going to sting much, at least not in any immediate sense.

What has to happen, what should have happened long ago in fact, is that the West needs to treat Russia like what it is (what McCain called it) - a gas station masquerading as a country.

The West has to stop thinking short term with their pocket books, and start making decisions at the state level to reduce or eliminate their dependence on the gas station. That can be done, and in fact, would be good for the environment in the process.

But going forward, the West should treat Russia as a straight out enemy as long as Putin is in charge. Europe should assume that they have no choice but to stop relying on Russian gas, and figure out how to start making that happen. The US should help that effort.

And we should just say that. As long as Putin is running the country, Russia is a pariah state, and will be treated as such.

and we will do none of it.

[Tamas]

U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT RUSSIA PLANS TO USE ITS MILITARY RESERVES AND NATIONAL GUARD, SUGGESTING LONG TERM GOALS IN UKRAINE- OFFICIAL

[The Brain]

Reservists doing counter-insurgency against their "Russian brothers" will be winning.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm starting to wonder if all this blabbing about Russian activities and plans is compromising intelligence assets. 

[The Brain]

I'm starting to wonder if all this blabbing about Russian activities and plans is compromising intelligence assets. 

My guess is no. And with any luck increased paranoia can get some innocent Russian officers taken out and shot. Great for morale.

[DGuller]

I'm starting to wonder if all this blabbing about Russian activities and plans is compromising intelligence assets. 

My guess is that US is not making public intelligence that they're getting from valuable human sources, like people close to Putin.  They're probably just intercepting run-of-the-mill conversations of ordinary people.  If you're going to order a full-scale invasion, a whole bunch of people kind of have to know ahead of time.

[FunkMonk]

Someone please get Vlad a copy of Imagined Communities for Gods sake.

[Syt]

BBC:

Switzerland says it won't impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine – for now.

Government ministers met today and condemned Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as a violation of international law, and promised to make sure Switzerland could not be used as a platform to get round EU sanctions.

But they stopped short of announcing sanctions of their own.

Russia is an important business partner for Switzerland. The Nord Stream consortium building gas pipelines from Russia to Europe has its headquarters in the Swiss town of Zug. Russian company Gazprom, which will fill the pipes, has an office there too.

In response to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Switzerland's response was the same - no sanctions. But no sanction-busting either.

This time the stakes may be higher. Business with Russia may be good, but business with the EU (far and away Switzerland's biggest trading partner) is better.

Pressure from Brussels could make this neutral non-EU member change its mind.

[Legbiter]

I'm starting to wonder if all this blabbing about Russian activities and plans is compromising intelligence assets. 

US intelligence is still pretty good when it comes to electronic snooping, signals intelligence, etc

[Sheilbh]

BBC:

The one thing Gaddafi was right about

[Admiral Yi]

US intelligence is still pretty good when it comes to electronic snooping, signals intelligence, etc

There's still such a thing as thinking you have uncrackable cyphers or untappable land lines.

[Valmy]

I think the plan is to use these leaks to embarras Russia into calling it off. I hope it works.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it did pretty much defang the false flag stuff.