Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Reuters (I think) wrote that US intelligence sources said we are at most 48 hours away from the start of invasion, which will likely start during the night, preceded with a cyber attack. A cyber attack was just happening on a bunch of Ukrainian sites. 

[Syt]

Kinda glad I'm not in my old job anymore where Russia and Ukraine were key markets and we were regularly making payments to persons and companies there. 

[The Brain]

My regiment fought at Poltava. Eastern Europe would have been a better place if we had won and killed Peter.

[Sheilbh]

Reuters (I think) wrote that US intelligence sources said we are at most 48 hours away from the start of invasion, which will likely start during the night, preceded with a cyber attack. A cyber attack was just happening on a bunch of Ukrainian sites. 

Ukraine's foreign minister has said Russia's ready to attack and there's only a short time to deter them from it. As I say real shift in tone from the gap between Ukrainian calm v Western alarmism

[HVC]

Why only go after the oligarchs? They have their money, what do the care?  Go after normal Russians and russia in general. If they feel the sting maybe they'll push against their government.

[The Brain]

I really hope that coming sanctions aren't largely symbolic like the present ones.

[Admiral Yi]

Why only go after the oligarchs? They have their money, what do the care?  Go after normal Russians and russia in general. If they feel the sting maybe they'll push against their government.

They care presumably because they don't want their wealth stuck in rubles in Russia.  They want their wealth in hard currency and they want to spend it in Chamonix and Nice.

[HVC]

Keep it in rubles for 5 to 10 years until the sections blow like they always do. Or better yet swiss francs.

[The Brain]

With sanctions that hurt Putin and his pals but not others, reasonable Russians get a perverse incentive to keep Putin on a war course.

[Syt]

Why only go after the oligarchs? They have their money, what do the care?  Go after normal Russians and russia in general. If they feel the sting maybe they'll push against their government.

Didn't happen in Iraq. And I'd expect that the blame will land with "evil foreigners", not their rulers.

[The Brain]

Whatever sanctions are put in place, they have to hurt Putin's ability to wage war. I don't think making him slightly less popular amongst the oligarchs will do this.

[Sheilbh]

Why only go after the oligarchs? They have their money, what do the care?  Go after normal Russians and russia in general. If they feel the sting maybe they'll push against their government.

Didn't happen in Iraq. And I'd expect that the blame will land with "evil foreigners", not their rulers.

Yeah I can't off the top of my head think of any sanctions that have actually "worked". The point of them I think is to extract a price for certain bad behaviour. From everything I've read it is very unlikely Russia would get, say, Iran level sanctions after an invasion. Part of the issue is that the US is the most able to deliver on sanctions and, in some cases, the strongest supporter but it tends to also be one of the least affected - so US-Russia trade is about the level of US-Ecuador trade, while the economic hit is higher in Europe.

I think that is the other argument for them that it reduces any economic dependence on Russia but even then it's relatively low.

But there's a new book coming out called the Economic Weapon which is a history of sanctions and apparently very very good - probably worth a read about now.

Whatever sanctions are put in place, they have to hurt Putin's ability to wage war. I don't think making him slightly less popular amongst the oligarchs will do this.

Yeah as I say I think people overestimate that - I think it might have had an impact in the 2000s, but since 2008 Putin's been pushing for oligarchs to repatriate wealth/stop capital flows out of Russia. Could be totally wrong, but I think he'd have minimal sympathy for people who'd ignored those directives and done business in enemy countries and I think they have minimal power over Putin and the securocrats if it comes down to it.

[Jacob]

Btw, the previous debate about Tucker Carlson could be extended to the whole of Fox News, apparently: https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1496242512272543745

I mean, when Candace Owens parrots Putin's talking points...

I think Murdoch's been around Putin socially for decades.

[Admiral Yi]

I still haven't seen any confirmation that Russia has moved into the Donbas.

[Berkut]

I don't know that sanctions are going to sting much, at least not in any immediate sense.

What has to happen, what should have happened long ago in fact, is that the West needs to treat Russia like what it is (what McCain called it) - a gas station masquerading as a country.

The West has to stop thinking short term with their pocket books, and start making decisions at the state level to reduce or eliminate their dependence on the gas station. That can be done, and in fact, would be good for the environment in the process.

But going forward, the West should treat Russia as a straight out enemy as long as Putin is in charge. Europe should assume that they have no choice but to stop relying on Russian gas, and figure out how to start making that happen. The US should help that effort.

And we should just say that. As long as Putin is running the country, Russia is a pariah state, and will be treated as such.