Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Cool map, thanks Celed. Is it supposed to be their official garrison locations or their current assumed deployment? I am asking because there's none showing in Belarus for example.

[Sheilbh]

I guess that's one of Putin's possible paths forward on this. Go in. Weather the response until Trump comes back (or Trump aligned GOP take Congress in the midterms) and proactively wrecks all trust and coordination within NATO, giving Putin what he wants and more.

Another reason why Europe needs to work together on defence - and practically I think that needs to include the UK because France can't deploy troops across all of Eastern Europe (not again ).

"I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. ... We could use that on our southern border," the former president said, describing Putin as "a guy who's very savvy" and whom he knows "very, very well."

It's not really the thread for this but I just want to note this because it seems there's a non-zero chance Trump tries to invade Mexico if he wins in 2024

[The Larch]

Cool map, thanks Celed. Is it supposed to be their official garrison locations or their current assumed deployment? I am asking because there's none showing in Belarus for example.

The map info says that it shows the headquarters for each unit, so it's not current locations.

[The Brain]

I guess that's one of Putin's possible paths forward on this. Go in. Weather the response until Trump comes back (or Trump aligned GOP take Congress in the midterms) and proactively wrecks all trust and coordination within NATO, giving Putin what he wants and more.

Another reason why Europe needs to work together on defence - and practically I think that needs to include the UK because France can't deploy troops across all of Eastern Europe (not again ).

"I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. ... We could use that on our southern border," the former president said, describing Putin as "a guy who's very savvy" and whom he knows "very, very well."

It's not really the thread for this but I just want to note this because it seems there's a non-zero chance Trump tries to invade Mexico if he wins in 2024

Trump will try to catch flamboyant guerilla leader Sancho Panza.

[Sheilbh]

This looks like a shift - feels like all of Ukraine is now preparing for war (albeit with Zelenskiy trying not to cause panic):

Iryna Matviyishyn
@IMatviyishyn
National Security and Defense Council asks Ukrainian parliament to declare state of emergency throughout Ukraine, except for Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts which are already in the special regime

[The Brain]

A shift? They need combat fatigues IMHO.

[The Larch]

Apparently the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted this the other day:

[Tamas]

https://twitter.com/antontroian/status/1496426736925483012

Russian state TV is now following up on Putin's speech with a graphic diagramming territorial "gifts" to Ukraine from Russian Czars, Stalin, Lenin and Khrushchev. The yellow bit in the middle is labeled "Ukraine."

[Tamas]

Apparently the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted this the other day:

They are not wrong but I am not sure whataboutism is great in this case. 

[The Larch]

https://twitter.com/antontroian/status/1496426736925483012

Russian state TV is now following up on Putin's speech with a graphic diagramming territorial "gifts" to Ukraine from Russian Czars, Stalin, Lenin and Khrushchev. The yellow bit in the middle is labeled "Ukraine."

So the Soviet Union's territorial gains in Poland after WWII that were attached to Ukraine were "a gift from Stalin"?

What is each label? I know Crimea was attached to Ukraine by Krushchev in the 50s, but what about the other "gifts"?

[The Brain]

Swedish PM avoided the word "invasion", but the Defence Minister did not. Trouble in paradise?

[Syt]

These maps seem lazy, because every side can go back to the point in history they like best and say that's the "real" borders. See: Balkanites on Paradox forums.

[Tamas]

These maps seem lazy, because every side can go back to the point in history they like best and say that's the "real" borders. See: Balkanites on Paradox forums.

Yeah. Even Hungary could say we gifted vast swats of Ukraine to the Ukrainians when we broke camp and left cca. 880s.

[The Brain]

Dark green in a solid green line shows the area Putin thinks Russia has a right to.

[The Larch]

Btw, the previous debate about Tucker Carlson could be extended to the whole of Fox News, apparently: https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1496242512272543745

I mean, when Candace Owens parrots Putin's talking points...

Candace Owens
@RealCandaceO
I suggest every American who wants to know what's *actually* going on in Russia and Ukraine, read this transcript of Putin's address. As I've said for month— NATO (under direction from the United States) is violating previous agreements and expanding eastward. WE are at fault.