Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[PJL]

The main reason why the Cold War didn't become hot, or even warm in Europe (though it did elsewhere) is largely due to the various agreements for a post war Europe made during WW2 that clearly defined areas of influence and interest between the various powers. This made for nicely defined 'play areas' that each side could use without the interference of the other. Once the Soviet economy collapsed, there was no real post Cold War summit that defined the new spheres of influence (other than German reunification). Everything since then had become ad hoc and there is no clearly defined strategy since. Hence the warm spots even in Europe (Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Georgia etc).

What is needed is a new international conference (or at least Europe wide) where various grievances and details can be discussed, new deals can be made etc. However this come with the proviso that if any of these are crossed, then they should be dealt with in no uncertain terms. Unfortunately at the moment, I can't even see the first happening soon, and even if it did occur, I doubt there is the will to enforce it strongly.

[Malthus]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

I don't think we have trampled them that much, at least not from our perspective. From theirs, I think we have - we basically ignored them. We expanded NATO to their borders, we encouraged the Ukrained to lean West, we basically have pretty much just ignored Russia as a great power. I don't think that was wrong per se, because really, they are NOT a great power...except that they have a shitload of nukes.

From our perspective, we are acting very normally. We know we are no threat to Russia, and that the best thing for Russia to do is stop acting like a bunch of douchebags, get their house in order, and join us in the Western world all liberal, fat, dumb, and happy. Who cares if NATO expands east? We aren't looking to invade Russia, so what difference does it make?

I think that is basically out attitude, or has been. Russia doesn't matter, they lost, we won, we can pretty much not worry about them.

Well, that is a pretty horrible way to treat them, given what we know about their paranoia and insecurity combined with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world and a huge fucking chip on their shoulder.

I don't think we should be rolling over to them by any means, but I wonder what the purpose of things like bringing the Baltic States into NATO. Surely we could figure out a way to make them more secure without expanding a historically anti-Russian alliance to the borders of Russia, understanding how that must look to Russia...for example?

The basic problem in this part of the world is that the essential interests of Eastern Europeans outside of Russia (with the exception, perhaps, of ethnic Russians) are fundamentally at odds with Russian notions of its role as a great power in the area - which Russia lacks the ecomomic muscle to translate into reality in any event.

Take the West out of the equation, and the situation remains the same, only even more dangerous. It is not at all clear what would happen if, say, Russia attempted to re-expand to its former imperial size - or even, for that matter, attempted to swallow Ukraine whole. Russia has had victories, but against pretty feeble and disjointed opposition so far. Could it pay for a full-scale invasion of Eastern Europe - if the West essentially announced it did not care? Many of those countries - particularly Poland - have lots of economic muscle (comparatively) and no love of Russian domination.

As to the relative size, ability to mobilize, morale etc. of their conventional forces, I have no idea. The Russians can clearly beat up the (broke, corrupt and disorganized) Ukrainians, under the cover of "volunteers", but how many such operations can they undertake without overstretch? Russians are cheering Putin as he thumbs his nose at the West, but they may be less inclined to cheer as the war bites.

The threat of nukes, lunacy aside, is basically defensive. It isn't of much use in (say) invading Ukraine, the Baltics, or Poland. For that you need conventional forces, which are expensive. In essence, assuming that the West stays out of it altogether and gives Putin a free hand to do what he wants, he may still be unable to do it; his 'appetite may be stronger than his teeth'.

[Berkut]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

I don't think we have trampled them that much, at least not from our perspective. From theirs, I think we have - we basically ignored them. We expanded NATO to their borders, we encouraged the Ukrained to lean West, we basically have pretty much just ignored Russia as a great power. I don't think that was wrong per se, because really, they are NOT a great power...except that they have a shitload of nukes.

From our perspective, we are acting very normally. We know we are no threat to Russia, and that the best thing for Russia to do is stop acting like a bunch of douchebags, get their house in order, and join us in the Western world all liberal, fat, dumb, and happy. Who cares if NATO expands east? We aren't looking to invade Russia, so what difference does it make?

I think that is basically out attitude, or has been. Russia doesn't matter, they lost, we won, we can pretty much not worry about them.

Well, that is a pretty horrible way to treat them, given what we know about their paranoia and insecurity combined with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world and a huge fucking chip on their shoulder.

I don't think we should be rolling over to them by any means, but I wonder what the purpose of things like bringing the Baltic States into NATO. Surely we could figure out a way to make them more secure without expanding a historically anti-Russian alliance to the borders of Russia, understanding how that must look to Russia...for example?

The basic problem in this part of the world is that the essential interests of Eastern Europeans outside of Russia (with the exception, perhaps, of ethnic Russians) are fundamentally at odds with Russian notions of its role as a great power in the area - which Russia lacks the ecomomic muscle to translate into reality in any event.

I think that nails it exactly.

The Uraine is a great example - Russia wants to create this narrative where the Ukraine is being interfered with by the West, and absent that interference, would be happy to be a pawn or satellite of Russia. While the West may very have "interfered" in some manner, the reality is that what is driving the Ukraine is simply self interest, and it is pretty obvious that they are better off aligned with the rich, successful, free West rather than fucked up Russia.

[Malthus]

I think that nails it exactly.

The Uraine is a great example - Russia wants to create this narrative where the Ukraine is being interfered with by the West, and absent that interference, would be happy to be a pawn or satellite of Russia. While the West may very have "interfered" in some manner, the reality is that what is driving the Ukraine is simply self interest, and it is pretty obvious that they are better off aligned with the rich, successful, free West rather than fucked up Russia.

I have a reasonable notion of what Ukrainians are thinking, from my in-laws: they are looking across the border at Poland, and wondering WTF they can't do the same ... and concluding the biggest slice of the problem is that they are dominated so completely by Russia. Recent events have only made that conclusion more stark (though to be fair, Ukraine hasn't even begun to tackle its own internal problems of its culture of corruption - hard to do while being eaten alive by Russia).

Some of my in-laws back in Ukraine travel to Poland for seasonal work. They can see for themselves the difference between a functioning country and a non-functioning country.

You don't hear as much anymore in the West from the Russian trolls the ludicrous bullshit about how the Ukrainian government is composed of Nazis and anti-Semites. I assume that inside Russia itself, that is still the narrative.

[Syt]

Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung quotes an interview published in (oppositional) Novaya Gazeta with a supposed wounded Russian tanker who confirms that the battle in Debaltseve was handled by the Russian Army, and that the "freedom fighters" only serve as smoke screen for Russian units fighting in the East.

A translation of the interview is here: http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/03/02/the-story-of-a-russian-soldiers-war-in-ukraine-we-all-knew-what-we-had-to-do-and-what-could-happen/

Dorzhi Batomkunuev, 20 years old, 5th separate tank brigade (Ulan-Ude), military unit No 46108. Drafted on November 25, 2013, in June 2014 signed a three-year contract. Individual number 200220, military ID No 2609999.

Impossible to verify, of course, how authentic this is. While I'm convinced Russian troops are operating in Ukraine, it still seems weird there's so little concrete proof - you'd think there'd be prisoners, corpses, vehicles, anything that the Ukrainians can parade in front of their cameras.

[derspiess]

I don't know whether they really believe that such particular details are true to the full extent, but I am pretty sure that they generally feel extremely disdainful of Americans, with rather few exceptions.  Even those who respect America don't necessarily respect Americans.

But we want them to like us.  THEY MUST LIKE US

[Valmy]

Really?  You meant that you Russians think that "hamburger-eating obese morons" is a serious description of every American, and not a metaphor?  Okay.  I guess that that is even funnier than your metaphor idea. 

I don't know whether they really believe that such particular details are true to the full extent, but I am pretty sure that they generally feel extremely disdainful of Americans, with rather few exceptions.  Even those who respect America don't necessarily respect Americans.

They basically think we are gullible idiots.  But I am not really impressed with where worldly smarts get you if Russia is the example.

[garbon]

In the long run is it in anyone's interest to have NATO parked north of Kiev?

Ran this through my gibberish-English translator and it still came out gibberish.  Can anyone translate "NATO parked north of Kiev" into English?

Do fuck off.

Se how easy it is to eschew obfuscation when you limit your sentences written in English to three words?  Best not to push your command of the language beyond its carrying capacity. 

Whatever old man. And I use that term with a degree of affection, because one day, sooner than the rest of us, you'll drop dead and this forum will then be a more pleasant place to post and chat.  Best wishes and a speedy exit, Mongers.

Really? Cheering on the inevitable death of a forum member?

[grumbler]

In the long run is it in anyone's interest to have NATO parked north of Kiev?

Ran this through my gibberish-English translator and it still came out gibberish.  Can anyone translate "NATO parked north of Kiev" into English?

Do fuck off.

Se how easy it is to eschew obfuscation when you limit your sentences written in English to three words?  Best not to push your command of the language beyond its carrying capacity. 

Whatever old man. And I use that term with a degree of affection, because one day, sooner than the rest of us, you'll drop dead and this forum will then be a more pleasant place to post and chat.  Best wishes and a speedy exit, Mongers.

Really? Cheering on the inevitable death of a forum member?

This is Mongers you are talking to.  His thin-skinned hysterics over getting called on a typically gibberish post bothers me not in the slightest.  Hell, I'm not even going to piss on his grave.  If I didn't do it to Hannibal's, I won't do it to his.

[CountDeMoney]

Whatever old man. And I use that term with a degree of affection, because one day, sooner than the rest of us, you'll drop dead and this forum will then be a more pleasant place to post and chat.  Best wishes and a speedy exit, Mongers.

grumbler's been on other forums seven times--and he ain't dead.  Does that mean anything to you?  Huh?  Grumbler ain't meant to die!  The only thing that can kill grumbler is grumbler.

[Martinus]

I wish to say that, before the chorus of righteous indignation befalls mongers, I do get his frustration with grumbler. I think grumbler is capable of being smart and a nice person but he often can't help himself being a sniping asshole.

[Martinus]

Whatever old man. And I use that term with a degree of affection, because one day, sooner than the rest of us, you'll drop dead and this forum will then be a more pleasant place to post and chat.  Best wishes and a speedy exit, Mongers.

grumbler's been on other forums seven times--and he ain't dead.  Does that mean anything to you?  Huh?  Grumbler ain't meant to die!  The only thing that can kill grumbler is grumbler.

The only thing we should grumbler is grumbler itself

[grumbler]

I wish to say that, before the chorus of righteous indignation befalls mongers, I do get his frustration with grumbler. I think grumbler is capable of being smart and a nice person but he often can't help himself being a sniping asshole.

I deny being capable of being smart and a nice person.  I have to choose, and I choose to be smart. 

If only you had such a choice. 

[grumbler]

grumbler's been on other forums seven times--and he ain't dead.  Does that mean anything to you?  Huh?  Grumbler ain't meant to die!  The only thing that can kill grumbler is grumbler.

That's.... bootiful, man. 

[DGuller]

The only thing that can kill grumbler is grumbler.

What a defeatist attitude.