Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

The interesting question would be what what would the world do if Putin pulled back to the Feb 23 lines - that is keeping the 2014 lands stolen, but giving back everything taken this year.  Would the west still support Ukraine in trying to re-take the 2014 lands (DOnetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea)?

I think it would depend on the speed of the Ukrainian advance, sort of like the Yom Kippur War.

Another interesting question is what would be the response if Russia requests a cease fire "on humanitarian grounds."

[Berkut]

Russians hit a hydro damn at Kryvyi Rih, knocking out power and flooding the river below.

No military value of course.  Just trying to make Ukrainian civilians suffer.

Not to apologize for Russians, but taking out power stations most definitely has military value.

And being upstream on a river that flows through one of the Axes of the attack, there might be a hope it slows it down in that sector.

Still it is churlishness at best.  The position in Kherson is untenable, but the suffering will continue due to pig-headed decisions.  The real tragedy will come when the Russians start to really target the civilian population of Kherson.  I don't think for a moment they won't in the end.

Maybe not all power plants, but it is against the Geneva Convention to attack dams and dykes:

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v2_rul_rule42

It is a violation if their attack may cause " severe losses among the civilian population". 

You can drive a cruise missile or six in that loophole.

[Josquius]

The interesting question would be what what would the world do if Putin pulled back to the Feb 23 lines - that is keeping the 2014 lands stolen, but giving back everything taken this year.  Would the west still support Ukraine in trying to re-take the 2014 lands (DOnetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea)?

I think it would depend on the speed of the Ukrainian advance, sort of like the Yom Kippur War.

Another interesting question is what would be the response if Russia requests a cease fire "on humanitarian grounds."

Yeah... This one is a worry. Really wouldn't put it past them to fake a cease fire. They've already pulled that shit a lot on a smaller scale afterall.

[Grey Fox]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah... This one is a worry. Really wouldn't put it past them to fake a cease fire. They've already pulled that shit a lot on a smaller scale afterall.

I'm less concerned about Russia cheating on a cease fire than I am that they will use it to freeze the front line and forestall any further Ukrainian advances.

[Berkut]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

[Habbaku]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

Has Russia claimed peace? Does 'claiming peace' mean something different in French?

[grumbler]

The interesting question would be what what would the world do if Putin pulled back to the Feb 23 lines - that is keeping the 2014 lands stolen, but giving back everything taken this year.  Would the west still support Ukraine in trying to re-take the 2014 lands (DOnetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea)?

I think it would depend on the speed of the Ukrainian advance, sort of like the Yom Kippur War.

Another interesting question is what would be the response if Russia requests a cease fire "on humanitarian grounds."

Yeah... This one is a worry. Really wouldn't put it past them to fake a cease fire. They've already pulled that shit a lot on a smaller scale afterall.

A cease fire does not have to be a cease fire in place.  If the Russians call for a cease fire on humanitarian grounds, the Ukrainians will be perfectly entitled to insist that it include an immediate and complete Russian withdrawal to the international border.  If the Russians fail to agree, then they will be revealing that there is no humanitarian reason after all.

I think that there is no hope that Ukraine stops short of liberating their entire country.  Whether some support is lost because some backers decline to support international law is moot; by that point, the Ukrainians will be in their endgame and won't need as much support from the fainthearts.

[grumbler]

You guys may find this interesting: official Ukrainian propaganda for the social media age:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1570119986349318146?s=20&t=iQbz6Wpjl7KvQqD5plt1MA

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

[Grey Fox]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

Has Russia claimed peace? Does 'claiming peace' mean something different in French?

No.

[Grey Fox]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

[Berkut]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

They, like everyone else, are merely pawns for the US war hawks.

[crazy canuck]

You guys may find this interesting: official Ukrainian propaganda for the social media age:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1570119986349318146?s=20&t=iQbz6Wpjl7KvQqD5plt1MA

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

 

[Grey Fox]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

They, like everyone else, are merely pawns for the US war hawks.

Really? Why do you think so?

[crazy canuck]

US war Hawks are not wasting this chance because Russia claims peace. There's someone willing and capable to significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities at the cost of no american life. That's an opportunity that only comes once a century.

I am glad we finally figured out who is truly to blame for this war.

Russia?

They, like everyone else, are merely pawns for the US war hawks.

I don't think GF was making a comment about who started the war, but rather the strategic opportunity which now presents itself for hawks.