Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

I read some speculation -and seeing how things are unfolding maybe it has some merit- that in fact Prigozhin is maybe just the face of an alliance of oligarchs and general intent on overthrowing Putin.

[Josephus]

For a guy that has a hard on for his legacy getting overthrown by a hotdog vendor has to be a kick to the nuts for Putin. It's glorious.

You've used "Hardon" "hotdog" and "nuts" in one post

[HVC]

For a guy that has a hard on for his legacy getting overthrown by a hotdog vendor has to be a kick to the nuts for Putin. It's glorious.

You've used "Hardon" "hotdog" and "nuts" in one post

It's a phallic day

[mongers]

Yes, a great deal of officials/generals/oligarchs standing on the sideline, waiting to see which way the game is going.

Best case is someone puts a bullet in Putin's brain, next that he flees to China, can't imagine him fighting it out in the Kremlin.

But I guess still the most likely outcome is he eventually crushes the insurrection, following a lot of dithering.

[Hamilcar]

I read some speculation -and seeing how things are unfolding maybe it has some merit- that in fact Prigozhin is maybe just the face of an alliance of oligarchs and general intent on overthrowing Putin.

That sounds plausible. That's why there is almost no resistance, and also why Putin knows it's over.

[Sheilbh]

I find it incredible that Wagner has not been crushed yet. I see only two possible explanations: one is that a lot of generals actually want Wagner to win, which I find unlikely. Or indeed the war in Ukraine has consumed everything Russia has, and they simply do not have reserves to move against Wagner, and disengaging whatever offensive-worthy forces they might still have in Ukraine must be difficult even if they'd be willing to do so.

I wouldn't rule out option one. This is clearly well planned and it feels the lack of resistance etc means something.

I think Wagner were always working with and being advanced by parts of the security state, including in their rows v Shoigu. Wouldn't be surprised if this is still part of that. Although if so it seems like Prigozhin's connections within the security state elite are a lot broader and deeper than previously realised?

[Maladict]

Putin's plane left Moscow in the direction of St. Petersburg.

[Josquius]

I fear this brings the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine significantly closer, because if there's a general collapse of Russian frontlines, Ukrainians advance and Putin is face with having to 'save' something from the disaster, so maybe he uses nukes at the gates of the Crimea? 

Rostov is the command center for the war and is currently under Wagner control so unlikely. Also you have to have something to nuke like 3 concentrated Ukrainian divisions or something. Ukrainians are unlikely to present the vatniks with a juicy target like that.

Something to nuke like... Kyiv? Lviv? Kharkiv?

[mongers]

Slightly interesting that Wagner are using the Z' but it and other markings painted in red, not white.

[Jacob]

depending on how this rolls: what will China do?

I'm hoping this is causing Xi to reexamine his belief that it is his destiny to conquer Taiwan.

[mongers]

depending on how this rolls: what will China do?

I'm hoping this is causing Xi to reexamine his belief that it is his destiny to conquer Taiwan.

Or maybe bring plans forward?

As if post-Ukraine war, a new security status in Europe is 'agreed' with Russia, that will allow a lot more NATO resources to be pivoted towards China.

Currently a lot of Western weapon inventories are quite low, though obviously much less so with regard to the US Navy.

Still a mistake for China to attack Tiawan, ever, but then again Xi is another dictator along the lines of Putin, more than capable of making disastrous decisions.

[Solmyr]

At least the Russians managed 1 impressive offensive in this war. 

They'll take Moscow in 3 days!

[viper37]

I find it incredible that Wagner has not been crushed yet. I see only two possible explanations: one is that a lot of generals actually want Wagner to win, which I find unlikely. Or indeed the war in Ukraine has consumed everything Russia has, and they simply do not have reserves to move against Wagner, and disengaging whatever offensive-worthy forces they might still have in Ukraine must be difficult even if they'd be willing to do so.

It could be a bit of both.

They do not want to die for Putin.  They don't like Wagner much, but at this point, they don't care and want Putin gone.  They may be preparing for the aftermath?

[Sheilbh]

depending on how this rolls: what will China do?

I'm hoping this is causing Xi to reexamine his belief that it is his destiny to conquer Taiwan.

I suspect the main lesson will be the danger of allowing the development of forces that are not controlled by the party

[Legbiter]

They'll take Moscow in 3 days!

Also trying to cheese the AI.