Thought we could use a new thread for the day of itself - makes it easier if we ever want to go back and re-live the experience.
Is there anyone NOT watching tonight?
Trump maybe? I think he is tied up watching the Governor of Pennsylvania.
Oh and we could have another new thread tomorrow for the post-election societal meltdown / snooze-fest.
:)
I'm not watching. I'm sure I'll hear the result when it's done.
Can't afford to stay up really, too much work tomorrow.
Donald just spoke at his campaign headquarters in Virginia. Dude looks down and sounded tired. Real low energy vibes.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 01:31:02 PM
Donald just spoke at his campaign headquarters in Virginia. Dude looks down and sounded tired. Real low energy vibes.
TBF he is an old guy who just recovered from covid and as I understand had a busy calendar the last few days.
Now we have 4 election day threads :P
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 01:31:02 PM
Donald just spoke at his campaign headquarters in Virginia. Dude looks down and sounded tired. Real low energy vibes.
Withdrawal symptoms from whatever concoctions being used to prop him up and his scarred lungs.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 01:17:04 PM
Thought we could use a new thread for the day of itself - makes it easier if we ever want to go back and re-live the experience.
Is there anyone NOT watching tonight?
Yes. I can't stay up all night.
I'll get the results tomorrow morning. Well, at least a strong indication. :P
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 03, 2020, 01:38:25 PM
Now we have 4 election day threads :P
This is the election day thread.
We also have a:
-Prediction thread
-general 2020 election thread (which was started January 2019)
-a Trump presidency thread
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 01:31:02 PM
Donald just spoke at his campaign headquarters in Virginia. Dude looks down and sounded tired. Real low energy vibes.
He does - also with the Fox and Friends appearance. It could be totally wrong but it feels a little like he's looking at bad internals.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El6kz-BVcAANpfI?format=jpg&name=small)
Well so long as you are in here voting you might as well...
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 03, 2020, 01:40:25 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 01:31:02 PM
Donald just spoke at his campaign headquarters in Virginia. Dude looks down and sounded tired. Real low energy vibes.
Withdrawal symptoms from whatever concoctions being used to prop him up and his scarred lungs.
Sleepy Donald! Sad!
I'm tempted to stay up to see the early states at least. But work tomorrow et al. But will I be able to sleep?
https://twitter.com/SamuelHHoward/status/1323651199556530182?s=19
QuoteWouldn't be #ElectionDay if there weren't some photos of Pumpkin, the Athens County Ohio Board of Elections cat. https://t.co/o8YZfYq7wT
Democracy needs more cats
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 01:17:04 PM
Thought we could use a new thread for the day of itself - makes it easier if we ever want to go back and re-live the experience.
Is there anyone NOT watching tonight?
I've got an appointment to meet friends at a gym from 8-10 (because of covid you need a reservation). My guess is that by the time I get home and log on at about 1030, Florida will be called and it will be effectively over.
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Yeah, I will be watching and I hope to see the election called before polls close on the West coast.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 02:32:28 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Yeah, I will be watching and I hope to see the election called before polls close on the West coast.
Usually it is called a few seconds after they close.
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 02:33:04 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 02:32:28 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Yeah, I will be watching and I hope to see the election called before polls close on the West coast.
Usually it is called a few seconds after they close.
True, I accept the friendly amendment.
I was hoping Midtjylland - Ajax could help pass the time but Ajax scores after 48 seconds. It's going to be a disastrous night. :(
Quote from: The Brain on November 03, 2020, 01:20:14 PM
I'm not watching. I'm sure I'll hear the result when it's done.
Quote from: Tamas on November 03, 2020, 01:29:35 PM
Can't afford to stay up really, too much work tomorrow.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 03, 2020, 01:40:41 PM
Yes. I can't stay up all night.
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Bunch of olds :P
Being here in Alaska our polls close at 8 PM local, midnight Eastern time. So I'm hoping by the time I go to bed a hours later, that it'll all be settled. But I won't be surprised if it isn't
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El6glegX0AAFsr2?format=jpg&name=large)
Someone is flying this banner around Philadelphia today...
https://twitter.com/_travishughes/status/1323672054621753345
:lol:
These days that might cause Dallas voters to vote Biden.
That's pro or anti trump? :unsure:
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2020, 03:46:51 PM
That's pro or anti trump? :unsure:
Philadelphia hates Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys.
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2020, 03:46:51 PM
That's pro or anti trump? :unsure:
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti. You then get close to the hatred Philadelphia fans have for all things Dallas Cowboys.
edit or just read Valmy's post.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti.
Ummm, there's some pretty damn heated rivalries in soccer. Just off the top of my head Rangers vs Celtic in Scotland, which incorporates all kinds of sectarian divisions (Celtic is Catholic, Rangers is Protestant) such that it has often resulting in the two fanbaes having brawls in the stands. I'm sure a real soccer-head could elaborate.
But yes - Cowboys - Iggles is a notable rivalry.
The team hasn't existed in 26 years but the Nordiques vs Habs rivalry is still going strong.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 03:43:46 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El6glegX0AAFsr2?format=jpg&name=large)
Someone is flying this banner around Philadelphia today...
https://twitter.com/_travishughes/status/1323672054621753345
America can suck sometimes but it truly is great :lol:
If I try to stay up watching this I will give myself an ulcer.
I voted for a Republican for Gov and L Gov. They removed Greitens and I think that sort of behavior should be rewarded.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti.
Ummm, there's some pretty damn heated rivalries in soccer. Just off the top of my head Rangers vs Celtic in Scotland, which incorporates all kinds of sectarian divisions (Celtic is Catholic, Rangers is Protestant) such that it has often resulting in the two fanbaes having brawls in the stands. I'm sure a real soccer-head could elaborate.
But yes - Cowboys - Iggles is a notable rivalry.
Literal interpretation may not always be the correct way to understand a particular text.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 04:39:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti.
Ummm, there's some pretty damn heated rivalries in soccer. Just off the top of my head Rangers vs Celtic in Scotland, which incorporates all kinds of sectarian divisions (Celtic is Catholic, Rangers is Protestant) such that it has often resulting in the two fanbaes having brawls in the stands. I'm sure a real soccer-head could elaborate.
But yes - Cowboys - Iggles is a notable rivalry.
Literal interpretation may not always be the correct way to understand a particular text.
If I took his post literally I would have asked how you multiply a sports rivalry by a car brand.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 04:41:12 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 04:39:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti.
Ummm, there's some pretty damn heated rivalries in soccer. Just off the top of my head Rangers vs Celtic in Scotland, which incorporates all kinds of sectarian divisions (Celtic is Catholic, Rangers is Protestant) such that it has often resulting in the two fanbaes having brawls in the stands. I'm sure a real soccer-head could elaborate.
But yes - Cowboys - Iggles is a notable rivalry.
Literal interpretation may not always be the correct way to understand a particular text.
If I took his post literally I would have asked how you multiply a sports rivalry by a car brand.
his?
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 04:41:53 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 04:41:12 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 04:39:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 03:58:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 03, 2020, 03:50:03 PM
Think of the biggest rivalry in soccer and multiply by infiniti.
Ummm, there's some pretty damn heated rivalries in soccer. Just off the top of my head Rangers vs Celtic in Scotland, which incorporates all kinds of sectarian divisions (Celtic is Catholic, Rangers is Protestant) such that it has often resulting in the two fanbaes having brawls in the stands. I'm sure a real soccer-head could elaborate.
But yes - Cowboys - Iggles is a notable rivalry.
Literal interpretation may not always be the correct way to understand a particular text.
If I took his post literally I would have asked how you multiply a sports rivalry by a car brand.
his?
You
Unless she's decided to transition? :hmm:
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 03:14:40 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 03, 2020, 01:20:14 PM
I'm not watching. I'm sure I'll hear the result when it's done.
Quote from: Tamas on November 03, 2020, 01:29:35 PM
Can't afford to stay up really, too much work tomorrow.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 03, 2020, 01:40:41 PM
Yes. I can't stay up all night.
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
I don't plan on staying up late. But I don't expect it to be close.
Bunch of olds :P
I can't stay up all night, unless it's for a good reason. :P
His Youness.
Everything quiet as can be down at the Johnson County Building.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 03, 2020, 04:33:14 PM
I voted for a Republican for Gov and L Gov. They removed Greitens and I think that sort of behavior should be rewarded.
I voted for a Democrat for Coroner. She was running unopposed.
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 05:41:07 PM
I voted for a Democrat for Coroner. She was running unopposed.
Did you vote for any other Democrats....? :ph34r:
Exit polls seem to be pointing trumps way :bleeding:
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2020, 06:20:07 PM
Exit polls seem to be pointing trumps way :bleeding:
How do you do exit polls? Wouldn't the people voting today be skewing Trump?
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2020, 06:20:07 PM
Exit polls seem to be pointing trumps way :bleeding:
How do you do exit polls? Wouldn't the people voting today be skewing Trump?
That's my hope yeah. They're just speaking to those voting in person and even there trump doesn't seem to overwhelmingly have it..
Trying not to read too much into it but nights are anxious times even normally.
Biden up 88k to 60k over Trump in Kentucky
6% of the vote
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 06:30:41 PM
Biden up 88k to 60k over Trump in Kentucky
6% of the vote
Postal or in person or..?
Who knows.
8% in and Biden still up
https://www.politico.com/
Votes Tyr. They all count the same.
Biden is not winning Kentucky though.
With such a huge number of mail-in or early voters, and the in-person voting skewing Republican, I wished they'd foregone the exit polling. It's only going to feed the "they stole the election" narrative.
Quote from: grumbler on November 03, 2020, 06:41:11 PM
With such a huge number of mail-in or early voters, and the in-person voting skewing Republican, I wished they'd foregone the exit polling. It's only going to feed the "they stole the election" narrative.
Exit polling isn't meant to be predictive anyway. It is for post election analysis.
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 06:43:27 PM
Quote from: grumbler on November 03, 2020, 06:41:11 PM
With such a huge number of mail-in or early voters, and the in-person voting skewing Republican, I wished they'd foregone the exit polling. It's only going to feed the "they stole the election" narrative.
Exit polling isn't meant to be predictive anyway. It is for post election analysis.
Good point, though somewhat ruined by the fact that they report the exit poll results while the election is going on. So I'll modify my statement and say that "I wished they'd foregone reporting the exit polling results while the election is being held."
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 06:36:27 PM
Who knows.
8% in and Biden still up
https://www.politico.com/
Louisville?
Surely Lexington is more libural than Louisville?
Cnn coverage is pretty bad.
I'm watching NBC
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2020/11/03/live-stream-2020-election-day-coverage-on-nbc-news/
AP is already calling Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
It's happening
The election, that is.
Quote from: The Larch on November 03, 2020, 07:10:52 PM
AP is already calling Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
They didn't even count a vote in Vermont before they called it. The power of the Bernie Bros.
37% in Florida
Biden up 190k
43% in
Up 212k
48% in, up 195k
Florida clearly has finally learned how to run elections because that is some crazy fast counting.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 06:30:41 PM
Biden up 88k to 60k over Trump in Kentucky
6% of the vote
Tainted. :rolleyes:
Florida 54% in, Biden 168k up.
All the channels are so far calling it 11-0 for Trump, that's Indiana right?
But Al Jazeera has it as 8-3 for Trump, do they know something we don't?
Or does Indiana do that split thing?
Quote from: mongers on November 03, 2020, 07:30:06 PM
All the channels are so far calling it 11-0 for Trump, that's Indiana right?
But Al Jazeera has it as 8-3 for Trump, do they know something we don't?
Or does Indiana do that split thing?
Vermont was called for Biden, 3 EVs
Quote from: mongers on November 03, 2020, 07:30:06 PM
All the channels are so far calling it 11-0 for Trump, that's Indiana right?
But Al Jazeera has it as 8-3 for Trump, do they know something we don't?
Or does Indiana do that split thing?
11-0 what? Electoral votes?
The President is up in Florida. Pretty close there though.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2020, 07:32:01 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 03, 2020, 07:30:06 PM
All the channels are so far calling it 11-0 for Trump, that's Indiana right?
But Al Jazeera has it as 8-3 for Trump, do they know something we don't?
Or does Indiana do that split thing?
11-0 what? Electoral votes?
Yep
I've seen Indiana called for Trump in some places, but not in the one I'm following, which btw has just called West Virginia for Trump.
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:33:24 PM
The President is up in Florida. Pretty close there though.
And with 60% Joe is back up.
Damn Florida, I am impressed.
When I voted, I stopped by every polling place in the city. Didn't see any goons with rifles or Trump flags. I did see one Trump flag on the street though. Some dipshit was riding a skateboard in the middle of the street while holding a US flag and a Trump flag.
So everything seems to be okay here in Mid-Missouri.
The 538 live blog is very pessimistic on Florida. Seems like early voting results are much worse than expected for Democrats. I hope this isn't the first eerie sign of a nightmare to come.
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:34:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:33:24 PM
The President is up in Florida. Pretty close there though.
And with 60% Joe is back up.
Damn Florida, I am impressed.
NYT election needle moved Florida to 94% likely Trump.
66% in Florida, only 102k margin
Told ya.... :secret:
FL gonna FL :lol:
It is super close
Wrong day to start sniffing glue
Quote from: Liep on November 03, 2020, 07:36:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:34:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:33:24 PM
The President is up in Florida. Pretty close there though.
And with 60% Joe is back up.
Damn Florida, I am impressed.
NYT election needle moved Florida to 94% likely Trump.
Real-time tainting. :lol: ;)
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 07:36:06 PM
The 538 live blog is very pessimistic on Florida. Seems like early voting results are much worse than expected for Democrats. I hope this isn't the first eerie sign of a nightmare to come.
Apparently Biden's lead in Miami-Dade county in the early voting (9%) is much lower than what Hillary got in 2016 (29%).
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 07:36:06 PM
The 538 live blog is very pessimistic on Florida. Seems like early voting results are much worse than expected for Democrats. I hope this isn't the first eerie sign of a nightmare to come.
Yep, results are really underwhelming from Miami-Dade. The rest of the votes will probably go to Trump in Stalinist proportions.
Fuck.
Biden takes Virginia.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 07:40:19 PM
FL gonna FL :lol:
It is super close
Then the Panhandle comes in later and seals it for Trump right? :hmm:
Quote from: Legbiter on November 03, 2020, 07:42:11 PM
Then the Panhandle comes in later and seals it for Trump right? :hmm:
Yes.
As Sheilbh said, Florida is a messy bitch that lives for the drama. :P
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2020, 05:51:35 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 05:41:07 PM
I voted for a Democrat for Coroner. She was running unopposed.
Did you vote for any other Democrats....? :ph34r:
No.
77% in and Biden up 165k
Just need one of Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
So there is another...
I guess it's safe to say that right now things are going worse than expected for Biden, right?
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 07:46:07 PM
Just need one of Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
So there is another...
I fear Pennsylvania will go Trump. And Florida too.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 07:47:16 PM
I guess it's safe to say that right now things are going worse than expected for Biden, right?
Yes.
Quote from: Legbiter on November 03, 2020, 07:42:11 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 07:40:19 PM
FL gonna FL :lol:
It is super close
Then the Panhandle comes in later and seals it for Trump right? :hmm:
Could go either way. We'll see after the panhandle comes in and all the precincts come in.
And I get called an edgelord and stupid... :lol:
Not so confident are we Languish.
I still think Trump will win by a hair.
You guys got this :hug:
The NYT is giving Trump a 95% chance of getting Florida due to the relatively poor Biden results in Miami-Dade.
Biden is currently 65k up after 79% of votes having been counted.
Turtle Man beat Bloodbath. Kind of a wasted $85 million the Dems spent on her.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 07:47:47 PMCould go either way. We'll see after the panhandle comes in and all the precincts come in.
Yeah but Florida is that early bellweather state. As Florida goes, so goes the rest of the country. So Donaldo is going to win this but maybe Biden chips off a Rust belt state or 2. :hmm:
South Carolina goes to Trump.
Quote from: Legbiter on November 03, 2020, 07:54:21 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 07:47:47 PMCould go either way. We'll see after the panhandle comes in and all the precincts come in.
Yeah but Florida is that early bellweather state. As Florida goes, so goes the rest of the country. So Donaldo is going to win this but maybe Biden chips off a Rust belt state or 2. :hmm:
Possibly. The only reason Donaldo is in play in Florida right now is the Cuban vote came in big for him. Biden winning in a lot in the burbs. Not a big Cuban vote in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Florida gonna florida. Just gotta wait till the votes are in.
Trump overtakes Biden in Florida with 81% in.
So, basically, the hope is that Florida is idiosyncratic due to Cuban votes, and not reflective of the general trend?
The NYT needle for Georgia is ticking over to the right as well. Ugh, at the very least it's a sign that it won't be the blowout it needed to be, and possibly a lot worse than that.
A bunch of states have been called, nothing surprising.
Trump gets Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.
Biden gets Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticutt, Rhode Island and Massachussets.
Hey Biden up 54-45 in Texas with 16% in! I am sure that will be the final margin -_-
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
Nope.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
No, plenty of panicking to do until we get one of the Big 4 called for Biden.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
Looks like Donald may have evaded the knockout blow of an early Biden win Florida.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
Be considerate towards us. Wait until Ohio is called to start screaming at the sky. ;)
QuoteThe New York Times needle also now has Trump at 78 percent to win in Georgia. According to their estimates, only the Latino vote is showing very large changes in Florida and Georgia.
I guess that doesn't bode well for Arizona either?
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 08:14:45 PM
QuoteThe New York Times needle also now has Trump at 78 percent to win in Georgia. According to their estimates, only the Latino vote is showing very large changes in Florida and Georgia.
I guess that doesn't bode well for Arizona either?
Depends. Different sort of Latinos out this way.
Christ, NYT also tilting Trump in NC
Regardless of how this ends, it's still tragic that it's even remotely this close. It's still clearly dark times for democracy.
49% in Ohio, Biden up by 400k
41% in Texas, Biden up by 200k
Third of Kansas in, Biden up 10%
50% in NC, Biden up 261k
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 08:27:44 PM
49% in Ohio, Biden up by 400k
41% in Texas, Biden up by 200k
Third of Kansas in, Biden up 10%
Doesn't tell us much unless we compare it with what's expected.
Arkansas called for Trump.
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 08:26:35 PM
Christ, NYT also tilting Trump in NC
Weird I was just sort of amazed how fast the vote shifted our way there. But maybe it did not shift our way enough.
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 08:33:45 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 08:26:35 PM
Christ, NYT also tilting Trump in NC
Weird I was just sort of amazed how fast the vote shifted our way there. But maybe it did not shift our way enough.
Now more than any other time, what matters is whether you're +/- on expected. We know Biden would be starting ahead pretty much everywhere, what matters is if he's ahead enough.
I guess Senate is definitely out now, so it's already a defeat. I guess we're now hoping for just a defeat and not a crushing defeat.
NC 65% of the vote in, Biden up 294k
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:26:45 PM
Regardless of how this ends, it's still tragic that it's even remotely this close. It's still clearly dark times for democracy.
Its pretty grim so far, much worse than anticipated. People like us who read and things like that might have to admit that we have this all wrong. I predicted agonizingly close Biden win, looks like its more likely to be razor thin Trump win. Hopefully we still get a Biden win, but we aren't getting the Biden triumph, and that's what I think we needed to arrest the present madness and hopefully push the Republican party back a bit at least to the center. That is looking very very unlikely now.
Sorry everyone. Especially AR who might lose a bunch of money.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:35:00 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2020, 08:33:45 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 08:26:35 PM
Christ, NYT also tilting Trump in NC
Weird I was just sort of amazed how fast the vote shifted our way there. But maybe it did not shift our way enough.
Now more than any other time, what matters is whether you're +/- on expected. We know Biden would be starting ahead pretty much everywhere, what matters is if he's ahead enough.
He certainly did not start ahead in North Carolina :P
Jesus you guys are doom and gloom. I think Biden still wins.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:37:22 PM
I guess Senate is definitely out now, so it's already a defeat. I guess we're now hoping for just a defeat and not a crushing defeat.
What key Senate races have been called?
Quote from: Zoupa on November 03, 2020, 08:46:45 PM
Jesus you guys are doom and gloom. I think Biden still wins.
Agree.
Quote from: derspiess on November 03, 2020, 08:47:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:37:22 PM
I guess Senate is definitely out now, so it's already a defeat. I guess we're now hoping for just a defeat and not a crushing defeat.
What key Senate races have been called?
None, but NC Senate candidate is running several points behind Biden. Given that even in the best case Biden will win NC just by the skin of his teeth, that pretty much spells doom for that Senate seat.
I'm watching CBC coverage at the moment while kids have the TV. Really shitty analysis - no attempt to consider where the votes are coming from.
This is my prediction map from July:
(https://i.imgur.com/9p4AeKP.jpg)
The first positive bit of news is that Biden's performance in suburbs is as expected. I guess there is a chance that the polling miss will thus be limited to just Latino voters, and maybe just Cuban Latino voters.
Cuban Latinos are notoriously Republican and this is them returning to the party.
Oh look I can get US networks. Well NBC at least. This is better.
Indiana called for Trump.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 08:53:16 PM
Oh look I can get US networks. Well NBC at least. This is better.
Just watch it on youtube live. I'm on the ABC News live feed.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 08:49:58 PM
I'm watching CBC coverage at the moment while kids have the TV. Really shitty analysis - no attempt to consider where the votes are coming from.
Yes, it was really poor. RDI does a much better job. I got the feeling the CBC were trying to avoid pushback from some of their viewers about covering American elections.
Languish is my main source :P
New Mexico called for Biden.
Nebraska, Wyoming, North and South Dakota called for Trump.
Florida is 90% in, Trump leads by something like 350k, I think that one's in the bag for him.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
So, any indication yet that I shouldn't be starting to panic?
Ohio still looks good, which bodes well for the Midwest.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 08:52:00 PM
Cuban Latinos are notoriously Republican and this is them returning to the party.
im disappointed by news of how Trump is doing in border counties in Texas though. Fucking wetbacks.
How do states get called when zero votes are counted?
New York called for Biden, Louisiana called for Trump.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 03, 2020, 09:07:35 PM
How do states get called when zero votes are counted?
Exit polls + voter turnout + conventional wisdom.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 03, 2020, 09:07:35 PM
How do states get called when zero votes are counted?
Exit polling. If it's just so overwhelming they just call it right off the bat.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 03, 2020, 09:07:35 PM
How do states get called when zero votes are counted?
Exit polling. Calling a state is a statistical thing, it's not like you call a state only when the margin exceeds the votes yet to count.
Conventional wisdom means jack shit in these times. :P
How do you keep 538 updating automatically? I think caching in Google Chrome is really playing havoc with it.
Odds are now even, unless Biden takes Ohio. That would be an autowin.
The constant ads on NBC for a six-part podcast on Kamal Harris sound a little premature now, don't they?
Am I transitioning to the next stage of grief, or does it sound like the mood is shifting a little towards Biden?
Quote from: Maladict on November 03, 2020, 09:22:23 PM
Odds are now even, unless Biden takes Ohio. That would be an autowin.
Odds here now have Trump as clear favorite at 1,40.
Colorado called for Biden.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 08:26:45 PM
Regardless of how this ends, it's still tragic that it's even remotely this close. It's still clearly dark times for democracy.
:yes:
Trumpism isn't going aaway and QAnon Republicanism is going to go big. We'll get a four year respite before the deluge.
I think even if Biden loses Ohio, it's obviously much closer than in 2016.
Assuming that correlates with other midwestern states, a shift of just a couple of points wins MI, WI and PA.
That's enough to win even if Trump wins all the other swing states.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 09:28:57 PM
The constant ads on NBC for a six-part podcast on Kamal Harris sound a little premature now, don't they?
She would be the presumptive front runner in '24.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 09:38:55 PM
I think even if Biden loses Ohio, it's obviously much closer than in 2016.
Assuming that correlates with other midwestern states, a shift of just a couple of points wins MI, WI and PA.
That's enough to win even if Trump wins all the other swing states.
Tim, for god sake lay of The Taint, you've done enough with that post to near guarantee a Trump win. :mad:
Fuck off, nothing I say matters
Lay off the Taint obsession.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 03, 2020, 09:39:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 09:28:57 PM
The constant ads on NBC for a six-part podcast on Kamal Harris sound a little premature now, don't they?
She would be the presumptive front runner in '24.
She'll be the incumbent in 2024.
I guess one way to salvage the night is for Midwest to whiplash just as much as Florida, but in the other direction. Running below expectations but still eking out a win is still a bad outcome, even if by the end of the night we might be thankful just for that.
This guy won. https://newrepublic.com/article/158977/madison-cawthorn-future-republican-party
The future of the GOP.
This election is crazy :hmm:
Nothing extraordinary has happened yet. The freak out is hilarious.
Ohio is beginning to go red, they're probably done counting the mail-in votes and have started on ED votes.
I'm using the Guardian update page. Very smooth layout and updates every 10 seconds.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat)
Quote from: katmai on November 03, 2020, 09:49:30 PM
Nothing extraordinary has happened yet. The freak out is hilarious.
Something bad has already happened, and that is the lack of Democratic blowout, unless Midwest pulls a reverse Florida on us. Without a solid hold on the Senate, we're at best in a holding pattern waiting for the next fascist to take over.
It wasn't going to be a democratic blowout, if ever thought that you were fooling yourself.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 03, 2020, 09:46:36 PM
This guy won. https://newrepublic.com/article/158977/madison-cawthorn-future-republican-party
The future of the GOP.
Apparently this was his celebratory tweet. :lol: :bleeding:
QuoteMadison Cawthorn
(@CawthornforNC)
Cry more, lib.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 03, 2020, 09:46:36 PM
This guy won. https://newrepublic.com/article/158977/madison-cawthorn-future-republican-party
The future of the GOP.
24 year olds are Millennials, not Zoomers, right?
Kansas called for Trump.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 03, 2020, 09:58:30 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 03, 2020, 09:46:36 PM
This guy won. https://newrepublic.com/article/158977/madison-cawthorn-future-republican-party
The future of the GOP.
24 year olds are Millennials, not Zoomers, right?
Zoomers, I think. I'm a middle Millennial at 35.
This doesn't look like it's going to be called any time soon. It's still only 8pm here, but I'm not staying up late for this.
Yeah this will take a while :ph34r:
It seems possible that Pennsilvania won't be called tonight, as officials are reporting that no more mail-in voting results will be communicated tonight, and there are more than 250k mail-in votes still to be counted in Philadelphia alone.
Quote from: The Larch on November 03, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
It seems possible that Pennsilvania won't be called tonight, as officials are reporting that no more mail-in voting results will be communicated tonight, and there are more than 250k mail-in votes still to be counted in Philadelphia alone.
LOL if you think they'll actually be counted if it comes down to PA.
Guess I'll be up for a bit.
If Baby Boomers go from 1946-64, Gen X should go to 1982 and Millennial to 2000.
late night call: it's going to be a mess
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/GQZod.png)
Not looking too promising for Bidenbros right now. Déjà vu.
Woah, WTF happened in Ohio now?
Don't look at me.
Quote from: Legbiter on November 03, 2020, 10:22:39 PM
Not looking too promising for Bidenbros right now. Déjà vu.
Don't cream your pants just yet.
Am I getting this right, Ohio went from surprisingly good for Biden to being surprisingly bad?
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 10:23:52 PM
Woah, WTF happened in Ohio now?
Looks like a fairly easy Trump win there. :hmm:
Quote from: Legbiter on November 03, 2020, 10:22:39 PM
Not looking too promising for Bidenbros right now. Déjà vu.
269 tie chaos scenario is on the menu.
He's down 6 points there.
I read most of the votes are still in the cities. If he can keep it to a 5 - 6 point loss, then assuming PA, MI and WI shift the same way, that's enough to win them.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 03, 2020, 10:27:23 PM269 tie chaos scenario is on the menu.
:lol:
Poor Nate Silver. :hmm:
Looks like Biden is likely to win AZ
Milwaukee county results might not be known til 5 am apparently.
Well shit. This is not going at all like I had hoped. Going to bed.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 10:26:43 PM
Am I getting this right, Ohio went from surprisingly good for Biden to being surprisingly bad?
He was doing very well at first, yeah, but Trump ended up overtaking him, same pattern as in other states (maybe because of mail-in and early votes, compared to election day votes). It could still change, though, apparently Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinatti have not yet finished reporting their votes, and Biden is doing well there.
Guys it was wishful thinking that this was going to be resolved tonight.
Missouri called for Trump.
Yeah, because of the different methods of voting being counted at different times in every county and every state it is a mess trying to parse things out.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/politics/exit-polls-2020/index.html
So, what were some people saying about the Latino vote? Seems they prefered Hillary to Biden, or they really liked Trump's policies, in FLorida, at least.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 03, 2020, 10:30:56 PM
Looks like Biden is likely to win AZ
I thought it was just the same pattern repeating itself like in NC and Ohio. Mail-in votes are counted first, giving Biden a comfy lead which is then swamped by ED votes but 73% of the total vote has been counted and Biden is crushing it. :hmm: Almost 9 points ahead.
Quote from: viper37 on November 03, 2020, 10:42:25 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/politics/exit-polls-2020/index.html
So, what were some people saying about the Latino vote? Seems they prefered Hillary to Biden, or they really liked Trump's policies, in FLorida, at least.
Florida is mostly Cubans, and they heard "socialist" and went "Fuck the Democrats!"
No one should be surprised by that.
Well, it's way later than I wanted to stay up, and given that no bombshells or big revelations are in sight I'm going to call it quits. Let's see what kind of smouldering ruins I find in the morning... :lol:
I'm calling it a night as well. What a shitty night that was, hopefully morning will be better.
It reminds me of 2018 - GOP vote holding very solid in rural counties, but doing very badly (and generally worse in suburbs and urban areas) which will come out as the votes are counted over the next few days especially given the number of mail and early votes.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 03, 2020, 11:08:27 PM
It reminds me of 2018 - GOP vote holding very solid in rural counties, but doing very badly (and generally worse in suburbs and urban areas) which will come out as the votes are counted over the next few days especially given the number of mail and early votes.
Yeah that's exactly what I was thinking too.
Quote from: DGuller on November 03, 2020, 11:03:08 PM
I'm calling it a night as well. What a shitty night that was, hopefully morning will be better.
Your Russian bleakness is bleeding through DG. Michigan Secretary of State is saying first reports are all in person voting not mail in votes...
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania won't be known till tomorrow night at earliest.
But do mail-in votes counted after Election Day actually count? :hmm:
And senate let's see how Iowa, Maine, Montana and Arizona go.
Last update from me (on the phone and in bed already :lol: )
Idaho called for Trump, California, Oregon and Washington for Biden.
I'm disgusted that it wasn't such a blow-out that there would be no question tonight. I know, wishful thinking. But still....I just wanted to think better of my country. :(
What a shitshow. Good grief.
Quote from: Barrister on November 03, 2020, 11:41:08 PM
What a shitshow. Good grief.
Yep and it feels very likely that lots will be going to the courts :(
The Democrat leadership was so ill-equipped, and ill-chosen, for this moment. I will never understand how they have squandered so much time. And ordinary Democrats have also been astonishingly passive, in the face of the threat.
Fiery but mostly passive.
True. Giving money =/= activism.
I am dismayed that millions of Americans look at Trump's performance these last 4 years and think, "Yup, I'd like me some more of that."
It looks like Trump is ahead in most battleground states. So it may well rain in downtown Lo's Angeles after all.
I'm dismayed that even one American would say that.
The major repudiation of Trump was the dream and the dream died.
I mean, Biden may still probably win this but Trumpism itself will still have legs to stand on.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 12:06:31 AM
The major repudiation of Trump was the dream and the dream died.
I mean, Biden may still probably win this but Trumpian itself will still have legs to stand on.
I hoped Biden would win, but Trumpism was not an accident. I thought this, at least, was clear. But I now have to come to the conclusion that, for many, the lessons of 2016 have not been drawn. At all. To think that Trumpism was an accident was to think that the wrong would correct itself magically. Even RBG seemed to think that. One could thus simply wait for the election. No need to do anything more.
The Don has been staying at 40% of the country, as long as we have an electoral college there will be tight races.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 12:06:31 AM
The major repudiation of Trump was the dream and the dream died.
I mean, Biden may still probably win this but Trumpian itself will still have legs to stand on.
I think that was always unlikely - I think you'd need a humiliation of Biden at 400+ which was very difficult to imagine. Trumpism has legs because it's won once and it's doing relatively well tonight: that's a better record than Mitt Romney style Republicanism.
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Quote from: Monoriu on November 04, 2020, 12:03:55 AM
It looks like Trump is ahead in most battleground states. So it may well rain in downtown Lo's Angeles after all.
What do you mean?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM.
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Again waaaay too early to doom and gloom Senate, relax shelf
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 12:29:51 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM.
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Again waaaay too early to doom and gloom Senate, relax shelf
:lol: Fair.
In other Senate news - I am delighted with the name Senator Tommy Tuberville :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:30:56 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 12:29:51 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM.
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Again waaaay too early to doom and gloom Senate, relax shelf
:lol: Fair.
In other Senate news - I am delighted with the name Senator Tommy Tuberville :lol:
I think he changed his name. He used to be called Tatertown :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:30:56 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 12:29:51 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM.
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Again waaaay too early to doom and gloom Senate, relax shelf
:lol: Fair.
In other Senate news - I am delighted with the name Senator Tommy Tuberville :lol:
all told I think Montana, Arizona and Maine could all well end up flipping to Dems
Before covid, I predicted Trump will win. So far, it looks a lot like 2016. I thought covid would have changed things by a lot more than that. Oh well.
Off to bed, see ya tomorrow, to cheer on President Trump :P
Seriously, if that piece of shit wins, what will be the impact on other countries' politics? Will Macron's plan for a united Europe defense see the day? Will the populists of Europe have a field day building on Trump's success to gain an even more larger share of the electorate? Will the Canadian conservatives realign themselves even more to be the Canadian GOP?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Am I evil for wishing him dead before the end of the year? :unsure:
As expected:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:54:02 AM
As expected:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!
shocked, shocked I say!
Quote from: merithyn on November 04, 2020, 12:46:31 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:19:53 AM
The other key point is it looks bad for the Senate and I think there's a strong argument that the defining political figure of 2010-20 is Mitch McConnell and it looks likely that'll continue (for now).
Am I evil for wishing him dead before the end of the year? :unsure:
Nope.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:54:02 AM
As expected:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!
:lol:
Someone spell checked his Tweet, because he originally had it "Poles" :D
WaPo:
Quote7:02 a.m.
Trump expected to make statement soon about the election
By Colby Itkowitz
Trump announced he will be making a statement overnight about the election, calling it a "big WIN!"
He also tweeted baselessly that the Democrats were "trying to steal," an accusation he's been leveling on Twitter and in speeches for months. Trump and Republicans have tried to limit states counting mail-in ballots after Election Day.
"We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election," Trump wrote. "We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!"
Twitter flagged the president's tweet, warning: "Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process."
The White House has yet to provide any additional guidance on when Trump will speak.
My guess: He will declare victory because he's in the lead and machinations will continue to throw out as many votes as possible to validate his claim.
NE2 called for Biden, the Arizona route seems to be open for now.
For some stupid fucking reason Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin wait to count their mail in votes and this year they received um...zillions. We have to win two while holding off Trump in Arizona and Nevada. Joe seems pretty confident that is going to happen but we are trailing in all three in a very precarious position.
It all sucks. I just hope we get to count all the votes.
Yeah it looks like Biden's blue wave in the Midwest will come from all these mail in ballots that will take days to fully count.
Georgia still not called because most of the Atlanta metro area hasn't been counted yet :hmm:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 01:41:59 AM
Yeah it looks like Biden's blue wave in the Midwest will come from all these mail in ballots that will take days to fully count.
Georgia still not called because most of the Atlanta metro area hasn't been counted yet :hmm:
Are we really expecting Atlanta to lead a big comeback win because that doesn't seem to be that city's style :hmm:
Without some kind of weirdness in North Carolina and Georgia we are not winning the Senate. So no matter what happens the next two years will be fun.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 01:38:55 AM
For some stupid fucking reason Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin wait to count their mail in votes .
you can thank the GOP for that
So I just woke up, unplanned too early, and at a glance the BBC map does not look good at all.
Still waiting on postal votes here right?
But odds seem against biden...
Man, America how the hell can so many vote for this again? 2016 on repeat it seems.
Please tell me I'm wrong and things are actually looking shiny.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 01:44:33 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 01:41:59 AM
Yeah it looks like Biden's blue wave in the Midwest will come from all these mail in ballots that will take days to fully count.
Georgia still not called because most of the Atlanta metro area hasn't been counted yet :hmm:
Are we really expecting Atlanta to lead a big comeback win because that doesn't seem to be that city's style :hmm:
Without some kind of weirdness in North Carolina and Georgia we are not winning the Senate. So no matter what happens the next two years will be fun.
Don't diss Hotlanta.
I slept well and it looks like I did not miss anything.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 01:51:08 AM
So I just woke up, unplanned too early, and at a glance the BBC map does not look good at all.
Still waiting on postal votes here right?
But odds seem against biden...
Man, America how the hell can so many vote for this again? 2016 on repeat it seems.
Please tell me I'm wrong and things are actually looking shiny.
I think you're wrong :)
I think the odds are against Trump/it looks better for Biden if there's no issues counting all the votes, but we might not know for a few days. I think Trump has won Arizona and the Nebraska CD EV. So Biden's got about 244 and Trump's at 217.
The outstanding states are North Carolina (likely Trump), Georgia (with outstanding votes mainly in Atlanta and suburbs), Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (all of which are processing early and mail-in votes slowly). Basically Biden needs to win any two states, Trump needs to win at least four states. (And 269-269 is still, technically, a possibility :lol:)
WaPo has TX at 94% counted with Trump having 52.3% over Biden's 46.3%. Looks like TX stays RED this time.
Have a nice civil war when Trump inevitably contests the result and sends his militias to disrupt late vote counting.
It seems like Trump is actually winning, from what I can gather he seems to be ahead in most remaining undeclared states. What a disgusting show of retardness from the American people.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 03, 2020, 11:55:22 PM
The Democrat leadership was so ill-equipped, and ill-chosen, for this moment. I will never understand how they have squandered so much time. And ordinary Democrats have also been astonishingly passive, in the face of the threat.
Maybe it is time for you to stop talking on American topics. Facing a possibility for four more years with you sniping in the background too. -_-
Just woke up. Are ya winning, sons?
Trump getting this many votes and possibly winning, I just find this disgusting.
Also not going to be pretty when some militias will ransack mail vote counting places and the supreme Court will decide well tough luck it's a Trump victory anyways.
Trump claiming he's won lots of states clearly. He hasn't yet and it's not clear. It's a "fraud on the American public".
But - this feels less confrontational than I was expecting and honestly it sounds like he knows he's losing. I could be wrong but this is almost how I imagine a Trump concession speech would go - claim victory "we will win this, and we already have won this" before reality which is "fraud" and "theft".
Again I could be wrong but I also suspect the Supreme Court might not rule the way Trump wants (because the GOP are likely to keep the Senate).
Edit: Although watching ABC, I still don't think the American media is fit at covering this.
America's 2020 Season Finale is a two-parter, apparently.
Interestingly Pence doesn't declare victory and does say "while the votes continue to be counted, we're going to remain vigilant" and "I truly do believe, as you do, that we are on the road to victory". If the GOP were losing the Senate I think Republicans might lash themselves to Trump, with the Senate I think they'll now not back him.
Edit: Also Rahm Emanuel agrees with me that it's not about the law it's pure politics and this sounds like he's lost and knows he's lost. This is how Trump will concede - by actually winning until it was stolen from him. Because he's never a loser but is, often, a victim.
Why does this keep happening?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 02:40:40 AM
Interestingly Pence doesn't declare victory and does say "while the votes continue to be counted, we're going to remain vigilant" and "I truly do believe, as you do, that we are on the road to victory". If the GOP were losing the Senate I think Republicans might lash themselves to Trump, with the Senate I think they'll now not back him.
Edit: Also Rahm Emanuel agrees with me that it's not about the law it's pure politics and this sounds like he's lost and knows he's lost. This is how Trump will concede - by actually winning until it was stolen from him. Because he's never a loser but is, often, a victim.
That he might does not actually believe his baseless lies is of little consolation and even smaller surprise. But a considerable number of dumb people will want to believe him and will try to act on that.
Dangerous and destructive lies are not okay just because they are made to further political gains
Biden winning the race but GOP keeping the senate sounds like a horrible outcome. I doubt Mitch and his minions would be more cooperative this time around and would do everything to sabotage him.
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 02:46:20 AM
That he might does not actually believe his baseless lies is of little consolation and even smaller surprise. But a considerable number of dumb people will want to believe him and will try to act on that.
Dangerous and destructive lies are not okay just because they are made to further political gains
Yeah - I'm not excusing it and you're right. But as I say it was less confrontational than I was expecting and it feels more to me like setting up a victim narrative rather than actually going to really fight everything. That might be wrong and it could change.
I'd note that as well as Emanuel, Tony Blair's former comms director Alastair Campbell's also tweeted "he knows he's lost" so I don't feel entirely crazy :lol:
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 02:50:07 AM
Biden winning the race but GOP keeping the senate sounds like a horrible outcome. I doubt Mitch and his minions would be more cooperative this time around and would do everything to sabotage him.
It's still better than the alternative though. I'd take gridlock any day over another Trump win.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 02:50:07 AM
Biden winning the race but GOP keeping the senate sounds like a horrible outcome. I doubt Mitch and his minions would be more cooperative this time around and would do everything to sabotage him.
Probably keep another 100 Federal judge positions open before the Trump (Don or Jr) 2024 campaign :bleeding:
QuoteIt's still better than the alternative though. I'd take gridlock any day over another Trump win.
I'm less sure. I almost feel like winning the Senate matters more.
From Twitter:
"The authoritarian president of a former British colony has preliminary declared victory for the ruling party in a country-tearing election. Opposition leaders and the media resist the president's calls to leave millions of votes uncounted. The EU monitors the situation closely."
Biden was never going to be a revolutionary president. Holding the line is the best we could expect. So the senate stopping him from doing much... Meh.
On the other hand trump being the one to continue to set the agenda would not be a great thing.
Surprised on the senate. The anti trump republican vote?
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:44:22 AM
Biden was never going to be a revolutionary president. Holding the line is the best we could expect. So the senate stopping him from doing much... Meh.
On the other hand trump being the one to continue to set the agenda would not be a great thing.
Surprised on the senate. The anti trump republican vote?
Trump's appointed 1/3 of the Supreme Court and a lot of judges in the lower courts. If Biden wins, I doubt the Senate will let him appoint any for four years in the hope that Trump (or Jr) win in 2024 - maybe I'm over-cynical but....
The other point is there is a huge polling failure here even just on the national popular it looks like it's way off.
Damn, I knew I would wake up to some nailbitter shit. :lol: :(
Looks bad for Biden in the rust belt. That mail vote better be as overwhelming as it has been touted. Seeing Trump's quotes it looks like his campaign isn't that sure of a win...
Meanwhile, a dead guy got elected: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/gop-state-legislature-candidate-in-north-dakota-who-died-of-covid-wins-election-433998
Numbers looking worse than 3 hours ago.
Arizona called for Biden but huge trump leads in those still being counted with less than 10% to go
Quote
Trump's appointed 1/3 of the Supreme Court and a lot of judges in the lower courts. If Biden wins, I doubt the Senate will let him appoint any for four years in the hope that Trump (or Jr) win in 2024 - maybe I'm over-cynical but....
The other point is there is a huge polling failure here even just on the national popular it looks like it's way off.
On that I say time is on the good guys side. No movement for 4 years is less preferable than things becoming better but the longer the line is held the more the boomers kick the bucket and people born in the 21st century start voting.
Millennials are a fairly mixed bag, positive leaning, but with the digital natives I'm very optimistic about their progressive credentials.
On polling being wrong.... I'm seeing this being reported a lot. Though let's not forget though 9/10 predictions were for Biden, the bulk of them were for fairly narrow wins. The most likely outcome was always predicted to be close, the question is which way the margin of error will blow.
:lol:
The PM of Slovenia has called it for Trump and offered his congratulations while criticising the mainstream media :bleeding:
QuoteArizona called for Biden but huge trump leads in those still being counted with less than 10% to go
Nate Cohn made an interesting observation on this: "In a way, the situation right now is vaguely reminiscent of the situation at 11PM in 2016... but in reverse (and in slow motion).
Biden's the favorite, even if narrowly, just about everywhere: PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA. But the trailing candidate is close, and it could be a while"
Trump has a big lead but there's not likely to be that many more Republican votes in those states (given what we know of where they are), so they're likely to be far more Democratic. Which was a bit like 2016 where Clinton had leads in those states, but the Democratic vote had been counted and the remaining votes were likely to be Republicans.
Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. :(
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/631185673654763551/773477574529646612/image0.png)
:lol:
Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds) :ph34r:
Yank friend that moved to Spain last year is already going full hysterics and posting on FB that he's rennouncing his American citizenship and becoming a Spanish citizen instead. :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 04:40:33 AM
Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds) :ph34r:
It's like less than 10k votes difference... and Jo Jorgensen has 37k votes. :bleeding:
Fellas, the votes that are still be be counted in a Wisconsin, Michigan and PA are mostly absentee ballots which are expected to skew Biden way. Just saying.
Just had my heart jump when I read of a burst pipe in Georgia stopping 60k postal votes being counted. Seems they weren't damaged and are due to be counted later today.
I remember in the prediction thread saying it would be awesome if a traditionally republican state made the difference. Could be heading that way. Final nail in the confederacys coffin as it's clearly urban /rural & industrial states that make the difference?
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 04:50:48 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 04:40:33 AM
Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds) :ph34r:
It's like less than 10k votes difference... and Jo Jorgensen has 37k votes. :bleeding:
From what I can read the rest of the outstanding vote in WI should still be quite blue. I wouldn't worry about it. Now we need one of MI or PA... Flipping GA but losing both of those and ME2 would put Biden at 270, which IIRC keeps Trump prez.
Isn't 270 the minimum winning number (269-269 being the tie)?
Yes the magic number is 270
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 04:58:45 AM
Yes the magic number is 270
Ah damn, it's true. Had a brain fart. What a relief :lol:
Also from Twitter , can't confirm 100% validity but
QuotePA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count
And most are mail in ballots
How likely are there to be faithless electors voting for Trump despite their state electing Biden?
It's a pity Americans aren't directly electing a prime minister to power and there's a 'figure-head' president to safeguard democratic institutions.
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 04:53:15 AM
Fellas, the votes that are still be be counted in a Wisconsin, Michigan and PA are mostly absentee ballots which are expected to skew Biden way. Just saying.
Yeah - I think Biden's favoured in all of these states given that, but it is narrow.
But leading Wisconsin make it a lot easier. Trump needs to win everything else now I think.
True Shelf. It is 1am here. So I'm off to bed.
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 05:03:53 AM
True Shelf. It is 1am here. So I'm off to bed.
Sleep well; we have a long day to endure.
Apparently the one city in WI that remains to be counted is Green Bay. If Brett Favre ends up delivering the presidency to Trump I'll be *furious* :lol:
Quote from: mongers on November 04, 2020, 05:05:24 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 05:03:53 AM
True Shelf. It is 1am here. So I'm off to bed.
Sleep well; we have a long day to endure.
Day to months :ph34r: :lol: :weep:
Quote from: celedhring on November 04, 2020, 05:06:58 AM
Apparently the one city in WI that remains to be counted is Green Bay. If Brett Favre ends up delivering the presidency to Trump I'll be *furious* :lol:
Apparently this is the reason:
QuoteGreen Bay's absentee ballot results are being delayed because one of the vote-counting machines ran out of ink and an elections official had to return to City Hall to get more.
The clerk has now returned with printer ink, so democracy can resume! :w00t:
Well, the printing press had been a key component of democratization. :contract:
And the city of Kenosha. :ph34r:
Gotta say, if I were an ignorant trumpy I'd be screaming manically at why a vote COUNTING machine needs ink.
PredictIt putting Biden back as favorite. Come on, hold, just fucking hold.
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:21:47 AM
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
Her grandparents fled Denmark - a country she thinks is draconian. I think a lot of her votes could be coming out of Trump's pocket.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:21:47 AM
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
I mean she was even the first to declare victory :lol:
From about 16 hours ago:
QuoteJo Jorgensen
@Jorgensen4POTUS
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El6lms6W0AA_Rnb?format=jpg&name=small)
I think this means she won until it was robbed from her by people voting for other parties :(
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 04:32:28 AM
Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. :(
My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 05:44:57 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 04:32:28 AM
Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. :(
My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.
Whenever I briefly awakened during the night I looked at results which didn't help my sleeping pattern. :D I am thinking a lunchtime powernap is in order.
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 05:48:45 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 05:44:57 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 04:32:28 AM
Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. :(
My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.
Whenever I briefly awakened during the night I looked at results which didn't help my sleeping pattern. :D I am thinking a lunchtime powernap is in order.
I know I'm Spanish, but for some reason I've never been able to master the art of the nap. It's really hard for me to catch sleep during the day, no matter how tired I feel, and when I'm able to nap it only manages to make me feel more sleepy for the rest of the afternoon.
Can Biden still lose Nevada?
It seems I could have gone to sleep much earlier last night. :lol: Besides the Arizona flip nothing really groundbreaking happened, right? So now we'll have to wait until the mail-in voting results start dripping by. Any idea when there'll be news about them?
There's a handy table about the states left to be called at the Guardian:
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Wisconsin 5% 169,000 7,172 Biden
Georgia 6% 301,000 102,823 Trump
North Carolina 6% 348,000 76,712 Trump
Michigan 13% 699,000 66,387 Trump
Nevada 33% 589,000 7,647 Biden
Pennsylvania 36% 2,992,000 675,012 Trump
Alaska 57% 207,000 46,553 Trump
I did some calculations trying to predict Michigan. The data points are somewhere within the percent counted and I took them before and after lunch.
At 80% counted Trump had 2331747 votes and a 81% 2342005, a difference of 10528 votes.
At 80% counted Biden had 2134557 votes and a 81% 2144394, a difference of 9837 votes.
To win Biden needs to go about 10000 plus votes for every percent remaining. Good luck with that.
A thought is that the percent counted probably indicates the percentage of districts having reported in and that the large cities should be last and therefore disproportionally many votes are remaining. If so we might expect Biden closing in quickly assuming that he gets more urban than rural votes.
Looking closer most of Michigan seems counted, the bog remaining areas seems to be in Wayne county, where Biden leads with 2:1 in votes. 100 000 votes of Trumps lead will probably be caught up there. Hard to see where another 100k votes are going to come from, some red areas hasn't been reported in completely either. Probably quite even in the rest of the state.
Doing the same with NC and GA indicates that NC might be difficult for Biden, but in Georgia most rural areas seems counted with Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta and Columbus remaining with about 80-90% counted. There might be enough votes to tip the scales there, DeKalb county alone might be 50k democratic votes ir current trend continues.
Quote from: Threviel on November 04, 2020, 06:46:46 AM
Looking closer most of Michigan seems counted, the bog remaining areas seems to be in Wayne county, where Biden leads with 2:1 in votes. 100 000 votes of Trumps lead will probably be caught up there. Hard to see where another 100k votes are going to come from, some red areas hasn't been reported in completely either. Probably quite even in the rest of the state.
Yeah - so an hour ago there was a 200,000 vote difference; 2.5 hours ago Trump had 52% of the vote to Biden's 46%. That's now down to about 70,000 and 50%/48%. According to the Nates, the remaining votes are mail-in ballots (which are overwhelmingly Democrat) from Democrat counties. So while it might not be enough for Biden to win, the outstanding votes are likely going his way.
Quote from: Threviel on November 04, 2020, 06:53:48 AM
Doing the same with NC and GA indicates that NC might be difficult for Biden, but in Georgia most rural areas seems counted with Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta and Columbus remaining with about 80-90% counted. There might be enough votes to tip the scales there, DeKalb county alone might be 50k democratic votes ir current trend continues.
I find this (now frozen) quite helpful on Georgia:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Ignore the doom-needles and scroll down to the maps, because it looks to me like there's basically not many areas where they'd expect/estimate Republican votes to come v a lot for the Democrats.
In Pennsylvania Biden needs about 600k votes. The rural areas have in large reported, but expect another 100k advantage for Trump from them, so Biden needs about 700k advantage from the cities.
Philadelphia: 250'
Montgomery: 20'
Delaware: 12'
Allegheny 12ish'
Well. Fuck.
It sort of seems that short of anything crazy happening, Trump is going to need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
I don't know much about the first two, but in Georgia the outstanding votes are from Fulton and DeKalb counties - the two main metro Atlanta counties. There are apparently at least 260k votes that are uncounted. Trumps lead is just over 102k.
In case you are questioning whether that is possible, in the vote already counted, Biden is winning 83% to 16% in DeKalb and 72% to 27% in Fulton.
In summary: if there really are 260k votes that are uncounted, Biden may be a favorite to win Georgia.
Let's hope.
Looking forward to the "but I was winning before they counted all the votes, this is cheating!" complaints from the most powerful man on the planet.
It actually may not even be very close. I just check predictit and Biden is now the betting favorite in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If that holds, he will win in the electoral college 306-232.
I'm feeling much better than I was last night, with the info that mail ins haven't been counted.
If he wins GA, like I believe and Nevada, where he leads, Biden will win.
There was some talk on the future of the GOP and bringing latinos into the fold. It may be happening already--exit polls are not perfect, but there is a county that is 96% hispanic - Starr County Texas.
In 2016, it voted for Clinton 79% and Trump 19%.
In 2020, it voted for Biden 52% and Trump 47%.
That is a swing of R +55% in 4 years.
If the Republicans weren't running a candidate calling mexicans rapists and murderers, they might have even won the county.
Looks like the Red Mirage rang true :hmm:
In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:06:05 AM
It actually may not even be very close. I just check predictit and Biden is now the betting favorite in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If that holds, he will win in the electoral college 306-232.
According to the NYT there's 1.4 million outstanding absentee ballots in Pennsylvania and the first million broke 80-20 to Biden. Plus there's still election day votes to count in Philadelphia and the suburbs. Hopefully that all holds because Trump's lead is 700k.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 04:53:20 AM
Just had my heart jump when I read of a burst pipe in Georgia stopping 60k postal votes being counted. Seems they weren't damaged and are due to be counted later today.
I remember in the prediction thread saying it would be awesome if a traditionally republican state made the difference. Could be heading that way. Final nail in the confederacys coffin as it's clearly urban /rural & industrial states that make the difference?
I love ACW references and hijacks, but I just have to point out that this is a terrible take. :D
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:17:21 AM
Looks like the Red Mirage rang true :hmm:
In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.
It was little bit stressful earlier in the day.
But, on the other hand in 2016 I remember crawling all over US electoral maps to look for hidden pockets of Democratic votes that still needed to report. I'm not too sad that Republicans might now be doing that :blush:
Edit: I think Nate Silver was doing some calculations and said the popular vote might work out at 52/48, which is a cursed number for the British posters :lol: :bleeding:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:17:21 AM
Looks like the Red Mirage rang true :hmm:
In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.
We don't have the "you can count votes postmarked before election day" thing, but over here mail votes are just mixed in with election day votes when doing the recount (I was chosen to man a polling station some time ago).
All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.
Biden up 21k in Wisconsin, up 8k in Nevada
Down 12k in Michigan
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:24:22 AM
All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.
What can they do if the chuds don't answer the phone?
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:17:21 AM
Looks like the Red Mirage rang true :hmm:
In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.
If Florida(!) can get counting quickly figured out, it seems other states should be able to as well.
But something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 04, 2020, 07:25:32 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:24:22 AM
All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.
What can they do if the chuds don't answer the phone?
Most of them know how to code. They can find new careers.
I hate gambling. But my imaginary money is on PA going trump but Biden winning anyway. Georgia to him
Quote. All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters
Look at 270towins models and though there's a long tail for Biden with some massive wins coming out, the bulk of outcomes hover around things being even, with a lot more on the Biden side of the fence.
I don't think the polls were wrong here. Remember the margin of error is always there - in 2016 the polls were broadly right outside of a few states too.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:27:19 AM
If Florida(!) can get counting quickly figured out, it seems other states should be able to as well.
My understanding is that the Republican legislatures in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all opposed measures to start counting mail-in ballots early. Which makes sense in a normal year when mail-in ballots etc are, from my understanding, normally quite restricted in those states. But I feel like if you increase that route to voting then you really should follow the model of states like Florida and start counting early.
QuoteBut something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.
That's the way it is in the UK and I agree. But I think that's a legislative change you make ahead of a vote - I don't agree with the idea that you can challenge it in the courts after people have received their ballots. I might not like it but that was possibly the law when people cast their ballots and I feel like that should be respected.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:24:22 AM
All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.
Agreed - I know others disagree but I think there was a polling failure in 2016 and there's been another now. The industry needs to properly work out what went wrong.
Michigan is looking good. 11% left and 0.6% in it.
Come on black ladies!
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:15:52 AM
There was some talk on the future of the GOP and bringing latinos into the fold. It may be happening already--exit polls are not perfect, but there is a county that is 96% hispanic - Starr County Texas.
In 2016, it voted for Clinton 79% and Trump 19%.
In 2020, it voted for Biden 52% and Trump 47%.
That is a swing of R +55% in 4 years.
If the Republicans weren't running a candidate calling mexicans rapists and murderers, they might have even won the county.
Ithink Trump did well with Flordia Latinos as well.
What an insane election :lol:
Florida passed a minimum wage hike to $10.
This country is ripe for Strasserism.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 07:35:04 AM
That's the way it is in the UK and I agree. But I think that's a legislative change you make ahead of a vote - I don't agree with the idea that you can challenge it in the courts after people have received their ballots. I might not like it but that was possibly the law when people cast their ballots and I feel like that should be respected.
Agree--once people have cast votes, the "remedy" of ignoring votes cast under the rules voters were told they were operating under is absurd.
One other thought - how much will the experience of election night shape the narrative around Biden. Seeing lots of takes that are critical of Biden and the campaign etc and I wonder about it.
It looks to me like, of the remaining states, only NC is leaning to Trump. This might not happen but if Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in normal election time would Biden be getting criticised for his campaign or would Dems be happy (even if it was similarly close)?
Biden up to 80% on PredictIt. I have to eat a humble pie here; I kept trashing PredictIt, but it seemed to have a better evaluation of the race all along compared to 538. It seemed to indicate it was a 50/50 race or thereabout all along, and that was probably closer to the mark than 90/10. :bleeding: Clearly polls have missed something in a big way this year, much more so than they did in 2016.
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 07:37:37 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:15:52 AM
There was some talk on the future of the GOP and bringing latinos into the fold. It may be happening already--exit polls are not perfect, but there is a county that is 96% hispanic - Starr County Texas.
In 2016, it voted for Clinton 79% and Trump 19%.
In 2020, it voted for Biden 52% and Trump 47%.
That is a swing of R +55% in 4 years.
If the Republicans weren't running a candidate calling mexicans rapists and murderers, they might have even won the county.
Ithink Trump did well with Flordia Latinos as well.
One other point on the voters of Starr Texas.
Apparently 55% of them saw Trump in 2016 and said, "no thanks to president trump". But after seeing the job he did for 4 years, decided, "yes, we want more of this, we were wrong about him before, and he deserves a second term."
Latinos are demonstrating that they are quickly assimilating into the American voter culture of extreme stupidity and irrationality. These guys are going to fit in!
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:27:19 AM
But something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.
After you put it in the mail box the amount of time it takes to get to the counters is out of your hands. I think a post mark deadline, which is what Iowa does, is perfect.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 07:53:15 AM
One other thought - how much will the experience of election night shape the narrative around Biden. Seeing lots of takes that are critical of Biden and the campaign etc and I wonder about it.
It looks to me like, of the remaining states, only NC is leaning to Trump. This might not happen but if Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in normal election time would Biden be getting criticised for his campaign or would Dems be happy (even if it was similarly close)?
If he wins it'll be alright. If he loses a scapegoat will need to be found, because obviously it cannot just be that half of the country is so shitty that they are genuinely quite ok with the likes of Trump leading them.
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 07:56:45 AM
If he loses a scapegoat will need to be found
Jewish retirees in Miami. :contract:
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 07:56:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 07:53:15 AM
One other thought - how much will the experience of election night shape the narrative around Biden. Seeing lots of takes that are critical of Biden and the campaign etc and I wonder about it.
It looks to me like, of the remaining states, only NC is leaning to Trump. This might not happen but if Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in normal election time would Biden be getting criticised for his campaign or would Dems be happy (even if it was similarly close)?
If he wins it'll be alright. If he loses a scapegoat will need to be found, because obviously it cannot just be that half of the country is so shitty that they are genuinely quite ok with the likes of Trump leading them.
Yep. We would then hear endless of how he was a terrible candidate. Should have gone with Bernie!
With the Latinos in Florida wasn't it the single issue of trump rolling back Obamas detente with Cuba that did it?
Though will say my partner has a relative in florida. Immigrant, son of immigrants to elsewhere, who is married to a central American immigrant...and they are on board the Trumptardo train.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 07:59:24 AM
With the Latinos in Florida wasn't it the single issue of trump rolling back Obamas detente with Cuba that did it?
Though will say my partner has a relative in florida. Immigrant, son of immigrants to elsewhere, who is married to a central American immigrant...and they are on board the Trumptardo train.
I think you guys are being a bit racist here, unable to look past colour of skin and how Trump is glad when white supremacists cheer his clown act on.
Having a non-white skin does not predestinate you of being rid of the same, let's say "conservative" "religious" views that prompt white folk to vote for Trump apparently. ESPECIALLY if you are from an immigrant background then there are good odds you come from a culture/family background where openness toward progressive ideas is lukewarm at best.
It's culture, not race, stop being fixated on race it's not becoming of you.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 07:59:24 AM
With the Latinos in Florida wasn't it the single issue of trump rolling back Obamas detente with Cuba that did it?
Though will say my partner has a relative in florida. Immigrant, son of immigrants to elsewhere, who is married to a central American immigrant...and they are on board the Trumptardo train.
It's also got the largest population of Venezuelan-Americans who are probably not keen on a "socialist" candidate either.
But there's signs that Latinos swung to Trump in other areas like Texas too. But not, from what I've seen, in Nevada or Arizona.
The truth is "Latino" is an incredibly broad label and there's probably more of an answer in breaking down that demographically/regionally etc.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
It seems I could have gone to sleep much earlier last night.
Yeah, I've needlessly aged considerably. And of course there was a big ass shitstorm at work today, after weeks of not much happening. :rolleyes:
Worst thing is I still need to go to the gym tonight, last chance before the lockdown.
That said I'm happy to see some blue appearing in the Midwest, shame about the Senate though.
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 08:04:07 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 07:59:24 AM
With the Latinos in Florida wasn't it the single issue of trump rolling back Obamas detente with Cuba that did it?
Though will say my partner has a relative in florida. Immigrant, son of immigrants to elsewhere, who is married to a central American immigrant...and they are on board the Trumptardo train.
I think you guys are being a bit racist here, unable to look past colour of skin and how Trump is glad when white supremacists cheer his clown act on.
Having a non-white skin does not predestinate you of being rid of the same, let's say "conservative" "religious" views that prompt white folk to vote for Trump apparently. ESPECIALLY if you are from an immigrant background then there are good odds you come from a culture/family background where openness toward progressive ideas is lukewarm at best.
It's culture, not race, stop being fixated on race it's not becoming of you.
I never mentioned race?
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 07:53:56 AM
Biden up to 80% on PredictIt. I have to eat a humble pie here; I kept trashing PredictIt, but it seemed to have a better evaluation of the race all along compared to 538. It seemed to indicate it was a 50/50 race or thereabout all along, and that was probably closer to the mark than 90/10. :bleeding: Clearly polls have missed something in a big way this year, much more so than they did in 2016.
I had this in the back of my mind even before the election.
I wonder if the problem is that the best polls in a Trump presidential election year are the "trash" republican ones. Everyone, including Silver, seems to dunk on Trafalgar, for example. And he gives it a shit rating that basically removes it from the model. But it was quite accurate in 2016.
I know that there are legit questions about the integrity of Trafalgar, but other pollsters don't get hit with such vindictive despite Silver talking about more general and widespread integrity issues that he thinks are prevalent (such as herding). If you hamstring the R leaning pollsters but not the D ones, you get a D bias, and if best in practice techniques have a D bias themselves (for whatever reason), that just exacerbates the issue.
The Selzer Iowa poll generated massive discussion/consternation/controversy when it was released a few days ago and showed Trump +7. In the event, Iowa was Trump +8.
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 07:58:25 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 07:56:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 07:53:15 AM
One other thought - how much will the experience of election night shape the narrative around Biden. Seeing lots of takes that are critical of Biden and the campaign etc and I wonder about it.
It looks to me like, of the remaining states, only NC is leaning to Trump. This might not happen but if Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in normal election time would Biden be getting criticised for his campaign or would Dems be happy (even if it was similarly close)?
If he wins it'll be alright. If he loses a scapegoat will need to be found, because obviously it cannot just be that half of the country is so shitty that they are genuinely quite ok with the likes of Trump leading them.
Yep. We would then hear endless of how he was a terrible candidate. Should have gone with Bernie!
Yeah - I'm already seeing them. And I think there are queries for the Dems - they've done badly in the Senate, they've lost House seats etc.
But I'm not sure that (possible) map is that bad for Biden, it's just a stressful route to actually getting it :lol:
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 13% 699,000 66,387 Trump
So, Michigan has started to count the remaining votes and the Dem advantage in those votes seems to be quite clear. 159k votes counted and Trump's advantage has gone down drastically.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 10% 540,000 13,057 Trump
Good point raised on 538 (if you forget it's Trump we're talking about)
QuoteYou go on Twitter and there's a lot of Biden supporters hand-wringing about how it could possibly be this close — and it feels like a negative story for Biden. But, like, in any normal election year, if an incumbent president were fighting this hard for his seat, wouldn't that be seen as a positive story for the challenger?
I don't see how normal election years are relevant.
Right Mal, Trump should be embarassed... but he has no shame, so he's not of course.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 08:18:18 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 13% 699,000 66,387 Trump
So, Michigan has started to count the remaining votes and the Dem advantage in those votes seems to be quite clear. 159k votes counted and Trump's advantage has gone down drastically.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 10% 540,000 13,057 Trump
OMG voter fraud confirmed. :P
1) It's hard to unseat an incumbent President
2) Polls were way off in a lot of the country
3) Said polls created expectations for big Democratic wave
4) Now everyone feels like shit
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 08:29:51 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 08:18:18 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 13% 699,000 66,387 Trump
So, Michigan has started to count the remaining votes and the Dem advantage in those votes seems to be quite clear. 159k votes counted and Trump's advantage has gone down drastically.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 10% 540,000 13,057 Trump
OMG voter fraud confirmed. :P
It has gone up with the next batch. :P
Michigan 9% 484,000 24,248 Trump
Quote from: Maladict on November 04, 2020, 08:06:50 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
It seems I could have gone to sleep much earlier last night.
Yeah, I've needlessly aged considerably. And of course there was a big ass shitstorm at work today, after weeks of not much happening. :rolleyes:
Worst thing is I still need to go to the gym tonight, last chance before the lockdown.
That said I'm happy to see some blue appearing in the Midwest, shame about the Senate though.
I knew it was not worth staying up all night.
:yeah:
Just going back to some of the Senate races, a bunch of polls showed Lindsey Graham in trouble in South Carolina. Nate Silver thought he would win by 5.1%. He is winning by about 13%. He didn't include any polls that had Graham up by double digits.
In Alabama, it looked surprisingly competitive, with the republican expected to beat the democratic challenger by 8.8%. He is winning by 22.8%. Silver didn't include any polls with the republican doing better than +15, and he included one with the democrat ahead.
I could go on. Everyone is going to focus on the swing states, but when you step back to see the bigger picture you can see the problems more clearly. If the polls have a bias, and then you weight the polls with possibly additional bias, and then you feed them into a model, you are going to get skewed results.
I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do. I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:38:21 AM
I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do. I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.
Yeah, honestly, I think he's done. It looks like he has no idea what he's talking about at this point.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:38:21 AM
I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do. I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.
He did say
It's A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter in the final projection.
But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:38:21 AM
I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do. I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.
I mean didn't Nate kind of get it right.
As I say I'm not personally a massive fan during the campaign but think he's useful on election night. But we were basically dealing with, by the looks of it, a large polling failure (especially at the state level - again - where some of the differences are enormous) and his model was probably about right. He correctly got that Biden's odds were pretty good even in the event of a big a polling failure. To me that seems like a vindication of the model rather than the polls - not the 10% thing.
Quote from: Maladict on November 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.
But weren't those polling errors? I get that he weights them and probably needs to examine those weightings, but surely he's not responsible for the underlying polls being so wrong.
Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia. Stop, stop, enough.
Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:21:47 AM
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
:)
Quote from: The Brain on November 04, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?
Perhaps that was Trump's plan all along. :ph34r:
Quote from: The Brain on November 04, 2020, 08:44:32 AM
Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?
Has anyone been reporting things like spoiled ballot rate?
Polling is finished so Nate and the cottage industry based around polling are finished. Private polling by campaigns will still exist but public polling is gone.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 08:47:58 AM
Polling is finished so Nate and the cottage industry based around polling are finished. Private polling by campaigns will still exist but public polling is gone.
In a just world, but in reality people want to know what is going to happen so there will be a market for polling. Just as there is for astrology.
Yeah. Polling isn't finished, but I think the current crop of pollsters are.
IIRC the pollsters did just fine in 2018 . . .
Also, some non-Presidential observations for you all:
* McConnell destroyed McGrath in KY, just as everyone with a brain knew he would. Why the national party set a bunch of money on fire for her, I'll never understand. McConnell is unbeatable here.
* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents. :cool:
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 08:58:16 AM
* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents. :cool:
You're welcome.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:43:57 AM
Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia. Stop, stop, enough.
I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.
It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.
@JR I thought you lived in NY? But thanks homie. :showoff:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 08:43:11 AM
Quote from: Maladict on November 04, 2020, 08:41:50 AM
But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.
But weren't those polling errors? I get that he weights them and probably needs to examine those weightings, but surely he's not responsible for the underlying polls being so wrong.
Maybe, I'm sure he will publish a lengthy explanation soon.
Polls are not an exact science. Confidence levels and intervals are a thing. Most results were well within their margin of error.
The trouble for pollsters, and something that is really interesting, is quite how many states are so close to 50/50. In the past when pollsters said blue would get 60% in a state and they got 55% instead nobody blinked. When its 51% and 49%.... That makes a difference.
What I find so amazing is how things are so perfectly split 50/50. In the UK I'd be tempted to blame polls for this, giving the right the power of micro targeting and wedge issues. But is Trump really bright enough for this? How has he managed to his upon the perfect wedges so expertly? - is it not down to him but rather his foreign supporters on social media that we are getting this?- an acrimonious 50/50 split is afterall the perfect outcome for those who want to see a country suffer.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 08:59:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:43:57 AM
Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia. Stop, stop, enough.
I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.
It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.
Nevada isn't entirely safe it seems.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 08:59:05 AM
I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.
It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.
It's kind of extraordinary that after all the weeks of narrative about this, the crucial tipping states might not actually be Pennsylvania or Florida :huh:
It does feel like potentially a very transitional map.
Quote* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents. :cool:
:lol: Loads of states legalised or decriminalised various substances. It's striking how far ahead on this the US is compared to us <_<
It's odd to me that a bunch of liberal ballot measures seemed to have passed and yet Biden is struggling so much. :hmm:
Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.
Michigan 6% 322,000 3,700 Biden
Oregon legalized, kinda, magic mushroom. :lol:
Californians are still assholes to the working class by refusing to consider App-based drivers to be employees.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 08:58:16 AM
* McConnell destroyed McGrath in KY, just as everyone with a brain knew he would. Why the national party set a bunch of money on fire for her, I'll never understand. McConnell is unbeatable here.
Maybe they just had money to blow. They spent a lot of money in other unsuccessful (and fairly hopeless) Senate and state-level races.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 09:05:27 AM
Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.
Michigan 6% 322,000 3,700 Biden
Biden up 10k now.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 08:59:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 08:43:57 AM
Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia. Stop, stop, enough.
I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.
It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.
Georgia is Plan C, yes, but still your odds are better if you have plan C than if you don't.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:03:28 AM
It's kind of extraordinary that after all the weeks of narrative about this, the crucial tipping states might not actually be Pennsylvania or Florida :huh:
Well, I think Florida was critical because Biden was up in the polls there and if he won that state Trump had no way to make it up (the state has too many electoral votes). Also its polls closed in the first wave and it now counts votes very quickly, so this could have effectively been over by ~9pm.
Pennsylvania was most likely to be the tipping point state, and there really isn't a reason to think it won't be: but the vote collection/counting will take a long time there. So in terms of counting votes it may not be the one to announce the result that puts Biden over the top.
Quote from: derspiess on November 04, 2020, 09:09:05 AM
Maybe they just had money to blow. They spent a lot of money in other unsuccessful (and fairly hopeless) Senate and state-level races.
I guess so? I just don't understand it. McConnell is to KY what Ted Kennedy was to MA. He's Senator for Life.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 09:10:30 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 09:05:27 AM
Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.
Michigan 6% 322,000 3,700 Biden
Biden up 10k now.
I *think* that puts this close to being in the bag.
Give Trump Georgia and Pennsylvania. That gives him 268 electoral votes. He needs 269 (assuming he would win a tie). If he can't get them from Michigan, he has to get them from Nevada? Not sure where the next best option is.
Biden is up to 90% on predictit.
Trump campaign sending emails again.
https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El-73igX0AA05A3?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El-iXxIXIAEMsgC?format=jpg&name=medium)
What's up in Maine and the split vote? (iirc?)
I'm interpreting this as Trump acknowledging he has lost:
"This is a fraud on the American public," Trump said. "This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election. So our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation. This is a very big moment. This is a major fraud on our nation. We want law to be used in a proper manner. So we'll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4 o'clock in the morning. It's a very sad moment. To me, it's a very sad moment. We will win this. As far as I'm concerned, we already have won."
I will not be satisfied unless Trump's next home after the White House is Riker's Island. :sleep:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 09:19:15 AM
I'm interpreting this as Trump acknowledging he has lost:
"This is a fraud on the American public," Trump said. "This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election. So our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation. This is a very big moment. This is a major fraud on our nation. We want law to be used in a proper manner. So we'll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4 o'clock in the morning. It's a very sad moment. To me, it's a very sad moment. We will win this. As far as I'm concerned, we already have won."
"P.S.: Send money"
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 09:18:22 AM
What's up in Maine and the split vote? (iirc?)
And Nebraska I think, it's the correct way to do it in my view :blush:
Basically there are two statewide electoral college voters (reflecting the Senators) and then one for each congressional district (reflecting the House).
It probably does mean addressing gerrymandering though :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:21:27 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 09:18:22 AM
What's up in Maine and the split vote? (iirc?)
And Nebraska I think, it's the correct way to do it in my view :blush:
Basically there are two statewide electoral college voters (reflecting the Senators) and then one for each congressional district (reflecting the House).
It probably does mean addressing gerrymandering though :hmm:
Aye. I know how it works, and it is better yeah.
Just meant I haven't heard any news from Maine on which way it is going. If Biden just gets michigan and wisconsin he needs that 1 vote.
Michigan lead is 19k now. Wouldn't it be fun if it all came down to Nevada flipping red at the last minute?
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:21:47 AM
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
Jo Jorgenson could hand Georgia to Biden :lol:
@Shelf I agree, if every state did it that way, then it's sort of like not having the Electoral College anymore.
Which therefore means we won't do it that way at large. :glare:
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:20:28 AM
I will not be satisfied unless Trump's next home after the White House is Riker's Island. :sleep:
Actually, I think I've made my peace with it, regardless of whether or not he gets a second term at this point. Enough people support him and his shenanigans, so let them have it. GOP will feel vindicated enough to continue their destructive behavior either way, whether it's a narrow win or loss.
It's kind of like climate change. Yes, I think it's too late to do much about it, because societies and politicians around the world, on the whole (including me) are not willing to take the drastic steps necessary to mitigate it, but I'm in the acceptance face at this point. Can just ride it out and hope conditions remain tolerable here till I kick the bucket.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:21:27 AM
And Nebraska I think, it's the correct way to do it in my view :blush:
Basically there are two statewide electoral college voters (reflecting the Senators) and then one for each congressional district (reflecting the House).
It probably does mean addressing gerrymandering though :hmm:
It is a terrible way to do it because of gerrymandering. I saw that it appears Republicans took a state house, and didn't lose any. We redistrict once every 10 years, and 2020 is a redistricting year, so we will be addressing gerrymandering: there will be more of it.
More quotes from Trump, after all these years still dumbfounded that we elected a president that talks like a third grader:
"We're winning Pennsylvania by a tremendous amount of votes," Trump said. "Think of this. We're up 690,000 votes in Pennsylvania. These aren't even close. It's not like, 'oh, it's close.' With 64% of the vote in, it's going to be almost impossible to catch and we're coming into good Pennsylvania areas where they happen to like your president. So we'll probably expand that."
"We're winning Michigan," Trump said. "I looked at the numbers, I said, 'Wow, that's a lot.' By almost 300,000 votes. And 65% of the vote is in. And we're winning Wisconsin."
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 09:22:42 AM
Aye. I know how it works, and it is better yeah.
Just meant I haven't heard any news from Maine on which way it is going. If Biden just gets michigan and wisconsin he needs that 1 vote.
Sorry - misunderstood :(
Just had a quick look on the NYT at the House election which should be a pretty good predictor, I'd expect - the Democrats are ahead 54-46 with 60% of the vote in. Obviously people could split their vote.
Yeah... Was thinking about Bidens victory speech just now and it does seem smart for him to take the high road and extend the olive branch there. I understand why so many voted for trump despite his faults, we want to find out what we can do to help, forgiveness peace and love, etc...
As much as trump deserves to go on trial that could cause more trouble than its worth.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 09:22:55 AM
Michigan lead is 19k now. Wouldn't it be fun if it all came down to Nevada flipping red at the last minute?
No way that will happen. Nevada has a massive hispanic population.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 09:24:17 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:21:47 AM
What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many :bleeding:
Jo Jorgenson could hand Georgia to Biden :lol:
I suspect libertarians pull more votes from Republicans than Democrats at this point. It is at least a mixed bag.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 09:27:44 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 09:22:55 AM
Michigan lead is 19k now. Wouldn't it be fun if it all came down to Nevada flipping red at the last minute?
No way that will happen. Nevada has a massive hispanic population.
Also from the department responsible:
QuoteNevada Elections
@NVElect
Here's what is left to count:
-Mail ballots received on Election Day
-Mail ballots that will be received over the next week
-Provisional ballots
Ballots outstanding is difficult to estimate in Nevada because every voter was sent a mail ballot. Obviously, not all will vote.
There's nothing there that seems likely to be disproportionately Republican.
I'm pleasantly surprised at nevada. Las Vegas seems to be just so trump.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 09:22:55 AM
Wouldn't it be fun if it all came down to Nevada flipping red at the last minute?
I'd prefer an outright coup if we're going for laughs.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 09:32:01 AM
I'm pleasantly surprised at nevada. Las Vegas seems to be just so trump.
:huh: What do you base that on?
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
Trump campaign sending emails again.
https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897
Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors
I know it's the increasingly old fart in me yelling at a cloud but:
Quote
CLARE MALONE
NOV. 4, 9:35 AM
Sarah Ellison over at The Washington Post has a good TikTok about Fox's decision to project Arizona for Biden pretty early in the night. (ABC News, I need to note here, has not yet made a projection in the state.) The tension between Fox's decision desk and its opinion anchors and the pressure that the pro-Trump network was getting from the Trump campaign were all very 2020 in its dynamics.
TikTok as a journalism outlet :bleeding:
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:00:07 AM
@JR I thought you lived in NY?
Pretty close but there is this little river in the way.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 04, 2020, 07:42:15 AM
Florida passed a minimum wage hike to $10.
This country is ripe for Strasserism.
Fret not sweet Timmay, Republicans will use the courts to get rid of this pronto. It will become something like a $10 minimum wage for self employed alligators on Tuesdays only when they are done with it.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:39:29 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
Trump campaign sending emails again.
https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897
Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors
See, this is why I'm not convinced that demographic change will eventually force the GOP to adapt or leave, as long as conservative rural areas wield disproportionate power.
Quote from: celedhring on November 04, 2020, 09:40:38 AM
I know it's the increasingly old fart in me yelling at a cloud but:
Quote
CLARE MALONE
NOV. 4, 9:35 AM
Sarah Ellison over at The Washington Post has a good TikTok about Fox's decision to project Arizona for Biden pretty early in the night. (ABC News, I need to note here, has not yet made a projection in the state.) The tension between Fox's decision desk and its opinion anchors and the pressure that the pro-Trump network was getting from the Trump campaign were all very 2020 in its dynamics.
TikTok as a journalism outlet :bleeding:
I mostly watched Fox's coverage last night - there are a LOT of problems with that network but overall the coverage last night really was old school fair and balanced.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:30:25 AM
There's nothing there that seems likely to be disproportionately Republican.
There was the theory that late arriving ballots could be disproportionately republican. Mainly based on the trend that early mailers were democratic out of proportion to those that got mail in ballots - so maybe republicans were procrastinating (and causing the late mail in vote to be republican).
Biden's lead is just under 8,000. I guess the question is how many votes are outstanding. If it is 10k: obviously Trump is cooked. If it is 150k...I'd still bet Biden of course but it is getting worrying.
Recorded vote totals are already in excess of what was cast in Nevada in 2016, although Nevada is a growing state and this is a high turnout election.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:42:46 AM
I mostly watched Fox's coverage last night - there are a LOT of problems with that network but overall the coverage last night really was old school fair and balanced.
Meanwhile I watched mostly MSNBC where the nonstop theme was "don't panic, we got this people". :sleep:
They had James Carville on and he had a bottle of Pappy on a shelf behind him and repeatedly talked about it. Thanks for the free publicity James. :showoff:
A big thumbs up from the Fromtia Wild Eyed Panic Bunker to all of you. I had resolved not to look at my phone or read any news outlets through all of this and instead chose to rely on all of you for some generally thoughtful and insightful commentary on events as they unfold, and you have delivered, as you have done in times past. Thanks. :hug:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:42:46 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 04, 2020, 09:40:38 AM
I know it's the increasingly old fart in me yelling at a cloud but:
Quote
CLARE MALONE
NOV. 4, 9:35 AM
Sarah Ellison over at The Washington Post has a good TikTok about Fox's decision to project Arizona for Biden pretty early in the night. (ABC News, I need to note here, has not yet made a projection in the state.) The tension between Fox's decision desk and its opinion anchors and the pressure that the pro-Trump network was getting from the Trump campaign were all very 2020 in its dynamics.
TikTok as a journalism outlet :bleeding:
I mostly watched Fox's coverage last night - there are a LOT of problems with that network but overall the coverage last night really was old school fair and balanced.
I read an article in the NYT a few weeks ago about the dude that makes their calls. He's a hyper-wonk and seemed completely walled off from outside pressure, very respected among his peers apparently.
Quote from: celedhring on November 04, 2020, 09:49:07 AM
I read an article in the NYT a few weeks ago about the dude that makes their calls. He's a hyper-wonk and seemed completely walled off from outside pressure, very respected among his peers apparently.
Completely walled off except for that one, hilarious time Karl Rove lost his shit over him calling Ohio for Obama :lol:
I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:40:46 AM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:00:07 AM
@JR I thought you lived in NY?
Pretty close but there is this little river in the way.
I'm hoping it's the Kill Van Kull, since that's the coolest river name in the world.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:55:28 AM
I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.
I had to stop watching CNN. John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'
At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."
It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something? :wacko:
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:42:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:39:29 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
Trump campaign sending emails again.
https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897
Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors
See, this is why I'm not convinced that demographic change will eventually force the GOP to adapt or leave, as long as conservative rural areas wield disproportionate power.
The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:55:28 AM
I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.
Yeah that was painful. We're painting Texas blue because the first vote counted is for Biden, get your cameras out!
They were way too focused on current numbers, acting as if Florida was still in play when it obviously wasn't anymore.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:24:18 AM
@Shelf I agree, if every state did it that way, then it's sort of like not having the Electoral College anymore.
Which therefore means we won't do it that way at large. :glare:
It's not like that at all, actually. Even the Congress is heavily biased towards rural areas, even though that was supposed to be the Senate's job. Splitting the vote by congressional district is still a far cry from a popular vote.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:55:28 AM
I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.
I had to stop watching CNN. John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'
At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."
It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something? :wacko:
I think 24/7 news channels really need to learn how to moderate their excitement. If everything is breaking news, then nothing is breaking news.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 10:00:03 AM
The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.
I wish they would put it to bed. Squeak a narrow win with a neo liberal shape shifter and have the pundocracy declare that the future is Blue because: reasons. Make it stop.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:55:28 AM
Completely walled off except for that one, hilarious time Karl Rove lost his shit over him calling Ohio for Obama :lol:
It is this attitude that I completely don't understand. And it is completely bipartisan.
People attack anyone who tries to interpret the world factually, if their interpretation differs from what they want. So the decision desk dude was wrong about calling Ohio for Obama (he wasn't). Time will show him to be wrong, if he is. There is no reason for Karl Rove to come after him.
I worry that this is what is sinking Nate Silver. He wants to be progressive and he has a progressive audience, but his audience doesn't want to hear bad news and really if your gig is data analysis there isn't much room for partisan opinion (except as commentary). You put those same pressures on the groups producing the data that he relies on--like the New York Times and Washington Post--and you get not just an echo chamber but one with an amplifier.
I read an article making an argument that models like 538 are destructive in part because they can affect what they're measuring. If people know what 538 says, they may be more or less likely to vote because of it. I think that's a very valid critique, that's a deadly danger of any statistical model.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:01:50 AM
It's not like that at all, actually. Even the Congress is heavily biased towards rural areas, even though that was supposed to be the Senate's job. Splitting the vote by congressional district is still a far cry from a popular vote.
:hmm: I shall have to meditate upon this. I had always assumed electoral vote splitting like NE and ME do would help to bring the country closer to a true popular vote.
But it's true of polling as well which has been a staple of election reporting as long as it's existed - this is just the next iteration. I think in the UK there was evidence that polling had an effect on the 2015 election (and actually in our multi-party system polls can be an attack point - a vote for Labour is actually a vote for a "coalition of chaos" with the SNP).
That's what I mean by Nate Silver started by critiquing horse race reporting that just said who's up-who's down based on polls and data that was often being misinterpreted. But I feel like to a large extent he just replaced the horse race, which was not his goal, and you get the same issues around it being misinterpreted.
We will always look for interpretive tools to understand the world and so will newspapers when reporting it. I think they get over-reported, but ultimately if that's what people want to read it's tough to argue against. There's clearly demand for this stuff.
JFC, Biden is back to 82%. Stop, just make it stop.
If the GOP can keep the Senate I'll be fairly happy with this whole mess of an election.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:18:16 AM
I read an article making an argument that models like 538 are destructive in part because they can affect what they're measuring. If people know what 538 says, they may be more or less likely to vote because of it. I think that's a very valid critique, that's a deadly danger of any statistical model.
Turnout will probably be ~150-160 million. How many people do you really think are engaged with 538? And then how many of those aren't already highly engaged?
For perspective, the digital subscriptions to the NYT are just under 3 million and the Sunday circulation just over a million.
I'm unconvinced that is a problem. What I think is more likely to be a problem is a politician makes a speech, or there is a debate, and then you get a couple hours of news programming never discussing the merits of the policy discussed and instead talking about the political motivations behind the speech and how it will affect the political fortunes of the republicans and democrats.
Quote from: fromtia on November 04, 2020, 09:48:45 AM
A big thumbs up from the Fromtia Wild Eyed Panic Bunker to all of you. I had resolved not to look at my phone or read any news outlets through all of this and instead chose to rely on all of you for some generally thoughtful and insightful commentary on events as they unfold, and you have delivered, as you have done in times past. Thanks. :hug:
Wise man.
Quote from: derspiess on November 04, 2020, 10:27:12 AM
If the GOP can keep the Senate I'll be fairly happy with this whole mess of an election.
They'll definitely keep the Senate now.
One silver lining is that Republicans are probably going to be a lot less willing to go along with Trump's banana republic tactics now that they know that they still have the Senate, the filibuster, and the Supreme Court. They don't need to break the system that still would disproportionately benefit them.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 10:27:57 AM
I'm unconvinced that is a problem. What I think is more likely to be a problem is a politician makes a speech, or there is a debate, and then you get a couple hours of news programming never discussing the merits of the policy discussed and instead talking about the political motivations behind the speech and how it will affect the political fortunes of the republicans and democrats.
Yes, our media has always been a big part of the problem. Not because they're fake news, they're not, but because they're commercial news.
Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan. Is Arizona not a done deal after all?
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 10:00:03 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:42:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 09:39:29 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
Trump campaign sending emails again.
https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897
Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors
See, this is why I'm not convinced that demographic change will eventually force the GOP to adapt or leave, as long as conservative rural areas wield disproportionate power.
The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.
Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:36:24 AM
Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan. Is Arizona not a done deal after all?
If you want to rely on PredictIt, I can say with confidence you need to discount anything at 90+. I had Vermont, New York, Hawaii, California and other states in the 92-93 range just prior to the election. DC got down to 92 a few weeks ago. I had New Mexico at 85.
The fees make it really hard to clear anything out at the ends of ranges.
That said, Trump may have a bit more life than some are giving him credit for in Arizona.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 10:36:57 AM
Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.
Address the material concerns of voters? What madness is this? No! Kneeling in Kente cloth only!
Biden is still favourite in PA I see....
Am I alone in being skeptical of this?
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:36:24 AM
Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan. Is Arizona not a done deal after all?
According to the NYT map there was an error with the data feed which meant it was incorrectly putting the count at 98% complete, not 86%. So that may be part of it?
QuoteThe demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.
Demographics is destiny is always bullshit because I'm old enough to remember George W Bush's "emerging Republican majority" (I think that was the phrase, right? Stuff like steel tariffs, NCLB and social conservatism was meant to lure minority voters) :lol:
But I think that the map we might see does look indicative of a possible transition and I don't see any reason why the US won't have the type of party re-alignment that the rest of the developed world has seen. I think it's striking that actually this election is less racially polarised than 2016 but more divided on education level which isn't just class but also cultural signifiers etc.
Edit: And Adrian Vermeule (the common good, Catholic integralist Harvard Law Professor) is excited for this potential re-alignment:
QuoteThe future will be multiracial, working class, socially conservative populism and I can't wait
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 10:42:53 AM
Biden is still favourite in PA I see....
Am I alone in being skeptical of this?
If you trust 538 commentary, when all is said and done, Trump didn't gain anywhere on his 2016 results on PA, and lost ground in a couple of counties. That coupled with absentee ballots leaning Democratic seems to imply fairly good things for Biden. Then again, this is 2020, who the fuck knows what's going to happen?
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 08:29:51 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 08:18:18 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 13% 699,000 66,387 Trump
So, Michigan has started to count the remaining votes and the Dem advantage in those votes seems to be quite clear. 159k votes counted and Trump's advantage has gone down drastically.
State Votes left to count (est.) Current margin Current leader
% votes
Michigan 10% 540,000 13,057 Trump
OMG voter fraud confirmed. :P
Trump's already hinting that on Twitter a half hour ago
"How come every time they count Mail-In ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction?"
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:36:24 AM
Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan. Is Arizona not a done deal after all?
Ugghhhh...this is exhausting.
I was digging into this, and it seems that most of the ballots are outstanding in Maricopa county, which has so far gone for biden 52-46. It seems as of 8am there were maybe 400k ballots outstanding. However, these seem to exclude early votes. Biden is up about 93k in the state.
So I wouldn't want to be Trump, but if you exclude the very early votes the remaining could have a Trump skew. Probably not enough to make up the difference, and I don't know more than the people making the decisions, but I can see why predictit would have odds greater than 0.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 09:55:28 AM
I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.
I had to stop watching CNN. John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'
At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."
It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something? :wacko:
John King looks forward to this every four years, the way a budding gymnast looks forward to the olympics. This is his moment. Right now.
The AP called Arizona for Biden before midnight last night and haven't budged from their call since. :hmm:
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 10:55:55 AM
John King looks forward to this every four years, the way a budding gymnast looks forward to the olympics. This is his moment. Right now.
To him: It means everything.
Quote from: fromtia on November 04, 2020, 10:08:21 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 10:00:03 AM
The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.
I wish they would put it to bed. Squeak a narrow win with a neo liberal shape shifter and have the pundocracy declare that the future is Blue because: reasons. Make it stop.
Biden represented a return to normalcy not the future. After him there are no neo-Liberals left.
I know I predicted this four years ago and have mostly been wrong so far but I had no idea all these 80 year olds were going to be hanging around still in power in the party. Maybe in four years I am talking about how amazing it is that Nancy Pelosi won re-election as a head in a jar.
But I think the party is about to shift leftwards in a big way. It is either that or the party falls apart. I haven't checked the results for the progressive candidates to see if they out-performed the party in general though.
The left is pissed, they think the party has sold out to corporate interests and is weak. All the new leaders and super stars coming up are leftists. There is only so long these ancient mummified third wayers from 30 years ago can go on...surely. They either seize control of the party or it falls apart. That's my feeling.
I will have to figure out what I think of that when and if it happens.
I will need some time to look at the Texas results to get a good feeling for what happened here. Obviously it was disappointing as the suburbs shifted back redwards but the actual impact of that on the balance of power is not clear yet. I think we did much better than 2016 though, just not as good as 2018.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 10:58:17 AM
Maybe in four years I am talking about how amazing it is that Nancy Pelosi won re-election as a head in a jar.
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer need to be purged now. I don't care if Biden wins - it is a total failure that you lose house seats and can't win the senate with this map in a year that has this much shit going wrong. This is probably the biggest dumpster fire year for America since we entered the great depression and incumbent party basically breaks even in the election. By a reasonable standard I would have expected this to be 1932.
So a disturbingly large number of Americans saw four years of lies, pandering to white supremacy groups, a senate majority that caved in to it all and decided they liked what they saw.
Biden will likely win the Presidency by a slim margin but the Senate will block everything for four years and people like DerIdiot will cheer them on. Trumpism is alive and well.
Fuck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On predictit, Arizona is down to 84% and Biden overall 82%.
My company gave me yesterday off to vote, which was bullshit because it took 5 minutes. They should have given me today off, because obviously no work is going to get done.
Pelosi needs to go yesterday. I am willing to tolerate anybody, freaking AOC, anybody. Let's just get somebody with a cause and message to get the party united. Especially if Biden ends up winning, as anti-Trumpism isn't going to work as well as a cause without Trump around.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:04:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 10:58:17 AM
Maybe in four years I am talking about how amazing it is that Nancy Pelosi won re-election as a head in a jar.
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer need to be purged now. I don't care if Biden wins - it is a total failure that you lose house seats and can't win the senate with this map in a year that has this much shit going wrong. This is probably the biggest dumpster fire year for America since we entered the great depression and incumbent party basically breaks even in the election. By a reasonable standard I would have expected this to be 1932.
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:05:25 AM
So a disturbingly large number of Americans saw four years of lies, pandering to white supremacy groups, a senate majority that caved in to it all and decided they liked what they saw.
Biden will likely win the Presidency by a slim margin but the Senate will block everything for four years and people like DerIdiot will cheer them on. Trumpism is alive and well.
Fuck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Get a chance again in November 2022.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:08:05 AM
Pelosi needs to go yesterday. I am willing to tolerate anybody, freaking AOC, anybody. Let's just get somebody with a cause and message to get the party united. Especially if Biden ends up winning, as anti-Trumpism isn't going to work as well as a cause without Trump around.
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
Yeah, I don't think replacing one lightning rod for conservative hate with another would be a good strategy. Let AOC be Bernie's successor when he retires/dies.
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:13:15 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:08:05 AM
Pelosi needs to go yesterday. I am willing to tolerate anybody, freaking AOC, anybody. Let's just get somebody with a cause and message to get the party united. Especially if Biden ends up winning, as anti-Trumpism isn't going to work as well as a cause without Trump around.
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
Dude, I am not endorsing AOC as the new Speaker just expressing how important I think it is to get somebody else in there that even the seemingly worse choice might be better.
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:14:30 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:13:15 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:08:05 AM
Pelosi needs to go yesterday. I am willing to tolerate anybody, freaking AOC, anybody. Let's just get somebody with a cause and message to get the party united. Especially if Biden ends up winning, as anti-Trumpism isn't going to work as well as a cause without Trump around.
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
Dude, I am not endorsing AOC as the new Speaker just expressing how important I think it is to get somebody else in there that even the seemingly worse choice might be better.
Which is why I don't follow. I'm not sure why just anyone is better than Pelosi.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:32:16 AMThey'll definitely keep the Senate now.
One silver lining is that Republicans are probably going to be a lot less willing to go along with Trump's banana republic tactics now that they know that they still have the Senate, the filibuster, and the Supreme Court. They don't need to break the system that still would disproportionately benefit them.
I've lost that hope - as long as Mitch runs the senate, they will continue to make a mockery of things, because apparently that's what their base wants.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:14:44 AM
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?
Igor Kurchatov?
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:13:15 AM
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
On the main road entering Atlanta, there was a big Trump billboard. It had a picture of trump, statement to Vote Trump, and the tagline,
"Its America vs. Communism"
Quote from: The future will be multiracial, working class, socially conservative populism and I can't wait
:bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding::bleeding:
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:16:51 AM
Which is why I don't follow. I'm not sure why just anyone is better than Pelosi.
Ok I did not expect to be taken so literally. I don't think AOC is the better choice. I was just expressing exasperation.
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
Donnie and the GOP won Florida bigly and the state passed a $15 minimum wage.
Electoral realignment is a helluva rollercoaster.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:18:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:16:51 AM
Which is why I don't follow. I'm not sure why just anyone is better than Pelosi.
Ok I did not expect to be taken so literally. I don't think AOC is the better choice. I was just expressing exasperation.
Okay well let me say I think the opposite. I think Pelosi has generally been a good foil to Trump and have been happy she stuck around to do so.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:17:55 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:13:15 AM
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
On the main road entering Atlanta, there was a big Trump billboard. It had a picture of trump, statement to Vote Trump, and the tagline,
"Its America vs. Communism"
Well that is going to be the narrative even when we run Joe Biden. So will the Democrats suffer running actual Socialists? The Republicans showed leaning into the caricature is not the worst thing.
I don't know. Populist leftism might be where things go. That might be the new Democrats.
Or will the center hold? I hope so but I don't see the leftists and progressives aligning themselves with us indefinitely. I don't know. I am worried about the future of the Party and the country for that matter.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:20:25 AM
Donnie and the GOP won Florida bigly and the state passed a $15 minimum wage.
Electoral realignment is a helluva rollercoaster.
Yeah see? Legalizing drugs, raising the minimum wage, and all that leftwing stuff has never been more popular. But we are too centrist to really own it and take advantage.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:08:05 AM
Pelosi needs to go yesterday. I am willing to tolerate anybody, freaking AOC, anybody. Let's just get somebody with a cause and message to get the party united. Especially if Biden ends up winning, as anti-Trumpism isn't going to work as well as a cause without Trump around.
Anti-Trumpism didnt work well with Trump.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
If you take the three states where Biden is leading: WIsconsin, Michigan and Nevada - he is at 270 EV.
Now I'm not calling or predicting anything here - but Biden certainly has "paths to victory". Plus there's Pennsylvania which everyone said would be super late in counting early ballots, and sure enough they are.
What's going on with the Senate special election Georgia?
QuoteRaphael Warnock DEM 31.9%
Kelly Loeffler *GOP 26.5
Doug Collins GOP 20.4
Deborah Jackson DEM 6.6
Matt Lieberman DEM 2.8
An estimated 90% of votes have been counted.
* Incumbent
The three way split looks a bit odd, esp. since it's two GOP candidates cannibalizing each other. Kelly Loeffler rings a bell - wasn't she some sort of nutjob?
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
Because all the outstanding votes being counted are the mail in ballots.
If the results hold and Biden becomes president, I'm going to take a moderate amount of enjoyment on the GOP having their Ralph Nader moment:
Quote
Scott Walker
@ScottWalker
·
47min
If it holds, @LPNational candidate got 38,000 votes in Wisconsin and margin between @JoeBidenand @realDonaldTrump is less than 21,000 votes. #Elections2020
If Joe holds the states he is currently leading in, he wins. If that happens then it was Arizona that won it for Joe which would kind of mean that Trump attacking John McCain all those times ultimately lost him his second term.
Ghost McCain might have his revenge.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 11:25:08 AM
What's going on with the Senate special election Georgia?
QuoteRaphael Warnock DEM 31.9%
Kelly Loeffler *GOP 26.5
Doug Collins GOP 20.4
Deborah Jackson DEM 6.6
Matt Lieberman DEM 2.8
An estimated 90% of votes have been counted.
* Incumbent
The three way split looks a bit odd, esp. since it's two GOP candidates cannibalizing each other. Kelly Loeffler rings a bell - wasn't she some sort of nutjob?
Kelly Loeffler is the one who ran the ads favourably calling herself more conservative than Atilla the Hun.
This is a jungle primary where the top two candidates go to a run-off, no matter if they're from the same party or not.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 10:36:57 AM
Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.
Honestly, neither side is that interested in that. The last person to do that was LBJ. Rural poverty is bad, worse than Urban poverty. It's harder to notice because it's spread thin across the whole US. Urban poverty is much easier to see. It's concentrated in big cities. The worst poverty is Indian reservations. That shit is dire.
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 11:23:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
If you take the three states where Biden is leading: WIsconsin, Michigan and Nevada - he is at 270 EV.
Now I'm not calling or predicting anything here - but Biden certainly has "paths to victory". Plus there's Pennsylvania which everyone said would be super late in counting early ballots, and sure enough they are.
You're taking Arizona for granted, which it may not be.
The runoff between Warnock and Loeffler will be ferocious and close but Loeffler would be the favorite to pull it out. There will be no libertarian candidate to pull a few votes away.
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 11:29:14 AM
Kelly Loeffler is the one who ran the ads favourably calling herself more conservative than Atilla the Hun.
Ah yes, I remember now. :)
QuoteThis is a jungle primary where the top two candidates go to a run-off, no matter if they're from the same party or not.
Ok, so this is basically locked in as GOP, then.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 10:56:35 AM
The AP called Arizona for Biden before midnight last night and haven't budged from their call since. :hmm:
Fox News called it for him almost right after polls closed. Everyone was giving shit to the dude that called it but he stuck to his guns.
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 11:23:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
If you take the three states where Biden is leading: WIsconsin, Michigan and Nevada - he is at 270 EV.
Now I'm not calling or predicting anything here - but Biden certainly has "paths to victory". Plus there's Pennsylvania which everyone said would be super late in counting early ballots, and sure enough they are.
You're in good with the Lord, you should try praying for us. I'm not religious and even if I tried I'd screw it up. I tend to piss people off. Also, I don't remember the "Hail, Mary". I get lost when it starts talking about fruit.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:29:52 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 10:36:57 AM
Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.
Honestly, neither side is that interested in that. The last person to do that was LBJ. Rural poverty is bad, worse than Urban poverty. It's harder to notice because it's spread thin across the whole US. Urban poverty is much easier to see. It's concentrated in big cities. The worst poverty is Indian reservations. That shit is dire.
Universal Basic Income would do it.
That is my cure for populism.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 11:30:08 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 11:23:58 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:18:25 AM
Why does anyone still believe Biden will still win?
If you take the three states where Biden is leading: WIsconsin, Michigan and Nevada - he is at 270 EV.
Now I'm not calling or predicting anything here - but Biden certainly has "paths to victory". Plus there's Pennsylvania which everyone said would be super late in counting early ballots, and sure enough they are.
You're taking Arizona for granted, which it may not be.
I'm not predicting anything, so I'm not taking anything for granted.
But Raz asked why would anyone still believe Biden could win. His path to victory is obvious - he just has to win the states he is currently leading in.
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:33:11 AM
Also, I don't remember the "Hail, Mary".
I thought you just throw the ball as far as you can and hope for the best? :unsure:
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Panda Express? :w00t:
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:33:12 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:29:52 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 10:36:57 AM
Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.
Honestly, neither side is that interested in that. The last person to do that was LBJ. Rural poverty is bad, worse than Urban poverty. It's harder to notice because it's spread thin across the whole US. Urban poverty is much easier to see. It's concentrated in big cities. The worst poverty is Indian reservations. That shit is dire.
Universal Basic Income would do it.
That is my cure for populism.
Well that or health care, or both.
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Be well Raz :)
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:22:03 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:17:55 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2020, 11:13:15 AM
Odd because it appears that many in the house who lost, did so when their opponents succesfully linked them to Liberal Pelosi. How would AOC help that?
On the main road entering Atlanta, there was a big Trump billboard. It had a picture of trump, statement to Vote Trump, and the tagline,
"Its America vs. Communism"
Well that is going to be the narrative even when we run Joe Biden. So will the Democrats suffer running actual Socialists? The Republicans showed leaning into the caricature is not the worst thing.
I don't know. Populist leftism might be where things go. That might be the new Democrats.
Or will the center hold? I hope so but I don't see the leftists and progressives aligning themselves with us indefinitely. I don't know. I am worried about the future of the Party and the country for that matter.
I guess the larger context is that I see the billboard with my friends/family and just laugh. It leaves us completely cold.
One of my grandfathers was a lawyer, the other an engineer. Both my parents went to law school. I work in business in a major city. For 100 years people like me have been the core of the republican party in the South. Now the Republicans aren't even trying to reach out to me--it is an extremely abrupt change for a party that nominated Romney in 2012. I don't know who "America vs. Communism" appeals to, but the Republican party seems to be doing pretty well in Georgia so I guess it is working.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
(https://i.postimg.cc/0y6JLz2H/pkg.jpg)
I've said it a million times - but no-one normal cares about policy which might help explain some stuff for Krugman.
Apparently all votes have been counted in Wisconsin and Biden has won - I think with a bigger margin than Trump in 2016.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
Is this the critique of center-left parties in the West in general?
So with Trump mercifully removed as head of the GOP, I'm wondering what direction the party will take? My hope is it's away from Trumpist rightwing populism, but who knows. Trump did so well in this election, maybe the populist BS needs longer to burn itself out. I'm guessing there's a fight of some sort that will have to decide it.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
I won't dispute the overall issue of money in politics...but just like this election is destroying the reputation of pollsters, one could also argue it is wrecking the simple notion that more money = more votes. Dems have outspent the GOP significantly and are getting almost nothing to show for that.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 11:29:14 AM
Kelly Loeffler is the one who ran the ads favourably calling herself more conservative than Atilla the Hun.
Ah yes, I remember now. :)
QuoteThis is a jungle primary where the top two candidates go to a run-off, no matter if they're from the same party or not.
Ok, so this is basically locked in as GOP, then.
I think the runoff is in January so a lot can happen. It will also probably be a double runoff--if you don't get over 50% in a senate election in Georgia you go to a runoff, and we have two senate elections. This one is obviously a runoff, but the other is right now at 50.8% republican 46.9% democrat. Since most outstanding votes are in Atlanta it is likely the republican will dip below 50%.
2 senate seats up for grabs at the same time is going to generate a ton of national attention. The democrats are both complementary: one is a urban/suburban white dude, the other is a black minister. If they each turn out their bases, it could be a good turnout for democrats, and both of the republicans are weak candidates.
That said, historically democrats struggle in runoffs in Georgia, and democrats will probably be demoralized.
NC is 99% counted out according to WaPo, with Trump leading by 80k. Looks like a win for the pumpkin.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 11:45:48 AM
Apparently all votes have been counted in Wisconsin and Biden has won - I think with a bigger margin than Trump in 2016.
I will believe it when the AP calls it :lol:
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
:unsure:
Did we just watch the same election campaign? You know the one where Biden massively outspent Trump at the end of the campaign?
Or did you miss the time where Michael Bloomberg spent One Billion Dollars and won only American Samoa in the Democratic primaries?
Quote from: derspiess on November 04, 2020, 11:48:33 AM
So with Trump mercifully removed as head of the GOP, I'm wondering what direction the party will take? My hope is it's away from Trumpist rightwing populism, but who knows. Trump did so well in this election, maybe the populist BS needs longer to burn itself out. I'm guessing there's a fight of some sort that will have to decide it.
Man that is an interesting conversation.
I will wait until I see Donald Trump leaving the White House before I have it though :P
@BB & all
That's what CC is saying.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
Is this the critique of center-left parties in the West in general?
Not really. In Canada, for example, we have health care, legislation which actually protects workers etc. We also have strict election spending rules.
The US is an outlier amongst western countries in a lot of ways, including health care, labour laws and election spending rules.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 11:45:48 AM
I've said it a million times - but no-one normal cares about policy which might help explain some stuff for Krugman.
The GOP is just so much better at messaging at all levels, national, state, and local. Policies are nice, but if I can convince Emilio to come out and vote for me because the Democrat is a vicious communist hellbent on destroying his small business running a food truck then honestly policies don't matter all that much.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
That would imply that before the last few decades there was no undue influence of rich people on democratic elections, which I simply find unrealistic and impossible.
And I'd turn the general criticism around. It was mainly the lower classes which abandoned liberal-left ideas once the parties supporting those ideas could not give them further economic benefits for supporting them. Since they could not get further economic benefits either way, the have decided to go with the ideology they always preferred.
Quote from: derspiess on November 04, 2020, 11:48:33 AM
So with Trump mercifully removed as head of the GOP, I'm wondering what direction the party will take? My hope is it's away from Trumpist rightwing populism, but who knows. Trump did so well in this election, maybe the populist BS needs longer to burn itself out. I'm guessing there's a fight of some sort that will have to decide it.
If this comes out as an incredibly narrow Biden win I don't see how Trump is removed as head of the GOP.
Quote from: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 11:53:35 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
That would imply that before the last few decades there was no undue influence of rich people on democratic elections, which I simply find unrealistic and impossible.
Well yeah, you made a statement that is not possible. That influence has always existed, but you would need to have blinders on not to realize how much that influence has increased in US politics.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:14:44 AM
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?
What are you blathering about? It's dozens of different elections, the majority and minority leaders don't affect that.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 10:46:19 AM
Edit: And Adrian Vermeule (the common good, Catholic integralist Harvard Law Professor) is excited for this potential re-alignment:
QuoteThe future will be multiracial, working class, socially conservative populism and I can't wait
Because I watch Krystal Ball on Rising I have found myself listening a lot to Saagar Enjeti and while I dont agree with him on a lot of stuff I do find the case he makes for an imminent realignment absolutely compelling.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:52:33 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
Is this the critique of center-left parties in the West in general?
Not really. In Canada, for example, we have health care, legislation which actually protects workers etc. We also have strict election spending rules.
The US is an outlier amongst western countries in a lot of ways, including health care, labour laws and election spending rules.
Canada is great but I'm talking about western Europe too, where center-left parties have had a lot of trouble with right-wing populists in recent years, and those countries have sizeable welfare states themselves.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/04/trump-biden-election-live-updates/#link-IN7UYEL7P5C4XEGLGPVSWXCVJM
QuoteTrump campaign officials preparing a slate of legal challenges, they tell allies
By Josh Dawsey
Top Trump campaign officials told allies, surrogates and donors in a call Wednesday morning that they expected a slate of legal challenges and had already deployed lawyers to a range of states.
"We are in recount territory in Wisconsin, in Michigan, the same way," deputy campaign manager Justin Clark said, according to a recording of the call obtained by The Washington Post. "I believe we will be lodging legal challenges in both of those places because there is some ... to counteract any funny business going on in both of those places."
"You will see more litigation today, likely," Clark said about Pennsylvania.
He didn't specify exactly what it would be.
Bill Stepien, the president's campaign manager, said that the campaign had deployed lawyers to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, among other states.
"We have a legal operation like that has never been assembled for a Republican candidate for president," Stepien said. "We feel really good about the state of our legal operation."
Clark said the campaign is "on guard" in North Carolina and has challenges "in every board of elections in the state."
"We are looking for ballots that come in late to lodge challenges," he said. "The same is true in Georgia. We have a fully staffed, fully operational team."
Stepien said the team was closely watching Philadelphia more than other areas.
"We are in the shorts of those officials to make sure we are in each of those offices, looking over the shoulders of the election officials," Stepien said.
Jason Miller, a campaign adviser, told surrogates on the call that he expects "the media" to focus on the president saying he wanted counting stopped, while the campaign wanted ballots to still be counted.
"We want all legally cast ballots to be counted. We want all illegally cast ballots not to be counted," Miller said.
He encouraged surrogates to fight the media. "Turn it around back on them. Why do you think they're fighting so hard to get illegally cast ballots accepted?" Miller said.
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Are you not enjoying election month? :)
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 11:45:48 AM
I've said it a million times - but no-one normal cares about policy which might help explain some stuff for Krugman.
The GOP is just so much better at messaging at all levels, national, state, and local. Policies are nice, but if I can convince Emilio to come out and vote for me because the Democrat is a vicious communist hellbent on destroying his small business running a food truck then honestly policies don't matter all that much.
Exactly. People aren't rational calculating machines matching their policies with their party preferences. This is about marketing, branding, identity etc of you and your opponent.
QuoteCanada is great but I'm talking about western Europe too, where center-left parties have had a lot of trouble with right-wing populists in recent years, and those countries have sizeable welfare states themselves.
Yeah the centre left in most of Europe has collapsed (with the exception of Scandinavia and Iberia) to a core vote of public sector workers and the young educated people. So tends to be big cities and college towns (the Brahmin Left). I think the race element in the US may mean the Democrats are different - because the minority vote in Europe is nowhere near as big. And to an extent Obama's coalition achieved this.
But you take away a generational political talent and it looks less clear that the Democrats are that different from their sister parties in Europe (or Australia - my hottest of hot takes is that the most important electoral event in the last 5 years was the 2019 Australian election :lol:). Obviously there could be lots of changes on the way - climate especially will force that, but it is striking that this doesn't look a million miles away from Europe. The Democrats are the social democrats/centre left plus the greens and the Republicans are the christian democrats/centre right plus the populist/nationalist right - obviously the content of their policies are very different but the structural issues/re-alignment seem similar.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 11:49:52 AM
NC is 99% counted out according to WaPo, with Trump leading by 80k. Looks like a win for the pumpkin.
But Roy Cooper won :hmm:
So weird.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 12:05:19 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Are you not enjoying election month? :)
Not as much as all those lawyers. Lots of boats and mansions are getting paid off this month.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Thank God there's at least one silver lining to this whole mess. :hug:
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:55:49 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:14:44 AM
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?
What are you blathering about? It's dozens of different elections, the majority and minority leaders don't affect that.
dude, they are responsible for recruitment and strategy. they also position their incumbents for reelection.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:57:34 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:52:33 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
Is this the critique of center-left parties in the West in general?
Not really. In Canada, for example, we have health care, legislation which actually protects workers etc. We also have strict election spending rules.
The US is an outlier amongst western countries in a lot of ways, including health care, labour laws and election spending rules.
Canada is great but I'm talking about western Europe too, where center-left parties have had a lot of trouble with right-wing populists in recent years, and those countries have sizeable welfare states themselves.
Where have right wing populists been able to hold on to power in Western Europe? I acknowledge that they have taken hold in Poland and Hungary but that is a separate issue of liberal democracy never actually being established after the fall of communism.
There are lots of other examples of healthier Liberal Democracies other than Canada - Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Australia etc etc. Just look at the world livability rankings and it will be easy to identify them. And that is really the point. The US is failing on many measures, life expectancy, income and wealth inequality, access to health care, lack of mobility, and so it is not that surprising that right wing populism has succeeded.
My concern is that US style right wing populism is going to infect the rest of us. How can it not. The US is the major cultural hub of the world. We already see signs of it in Canadian politics. Before last night I thought the US was going to turn it around and the threat would be minimized. But now I have a lot of doubt that will happen at all.
I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore. If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump.
It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves. They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it. They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons. The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:57:34 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:52:33 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 11:39:20 AM
The failing of Liberal Democracy in the US is that it sold out and now the people who were supposed to benefit from that political economic system are getting screwed allowing Trumpism to flourish.
That is certainly the Progressive critique.
Not just from Progressives. One needs to have blinders on to not acknowledge the effect of election spending rules and how that impacts your politics.
Is this the critique of center-left parties in the West in general?
Not really. In Canada, for example, we have health care, legislation which actually protects workers etc. We also have strict election spending rules.
The US is an outlier amongst western countries in a lot of ways, including health care, labour laws and election spending rules.
Canada is great but I'm talking about western Europe too, where center-left parties have had a lot of trouble with right-wing populists in recent years, and those countries have sizeable welfare states themselves.
Where have right wing populists been able to hold on to power in Western Europe? I acknowledge that they have taken hold in Poland and Hungary but that is a separate issue of liberal democracy never actually being established after the fall of communism.
There are lots of other examples of healthier Liberal Democracies other than Canada - Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Australia etc etc. Just look at the world livability rankings and it will be easy to identify them. And that is really the point. The US is failing on many measures, life expectancy, income and wealth inequality, access to health care, lack of mobility, and so it is not that surprising that right wing populism has succeeded.
My concern is that US style right wing populism is going to infect the rest of us. How can it not. The US is the major cultural hub of the world. We already see signs of it in Canadian politics. Before last night I thought the US was going to turn it around and the threat would be minimized. But now I have a lot of doubt that will happen at all.
Sheilbh put it better than I ever could. :D
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:19:30 PM
I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore. If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump.
It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves. They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it. They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons. The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.
Maybe. I wonder if part of it is just how do you poll people who don't trust any institutions? They think the media's fake news (as are polls) etc etc. It's a bit like a really trivial version of the issue census-takers have had. I swear there was someone here with that experience.
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 12:13:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Thank God there's at least one silver lining to this whole mess. :hug:
:lol:
Not for prosecutors though :console:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 12:23:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:19:30 PM
I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore. If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump.
It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves. They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it. They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons. The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.
Maybe. I wonder if part of it is just how do you poll people who don't trust any institutions? They think the media's fake news (as are polls) etc etc. It's a bit like a really trivial version of the issue census-takers have had. I swear there was someone here with that experience.
Benedict Arnold.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 11:39:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Panda Express? :w00t:
Nah, local joint. They have a buffet and I just fill up a box and pay by the pound.
The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called. I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
A lot of those hours are volunteered.
I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted. Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere? I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:26:47 PM
The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called. I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.
Looking at the County Map I don't know if it really set up well for the President to have it swing back as most of the outstanding votes seem to be in counties that are currently democratic, but then I don't know the source of the outstanding votes. You might be right.
Edit: Obviously if there is some kind of systemic error in there that might change things.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:30:26 PM
I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted. Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere? I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.
From Googling, it sounds like bullshit, at least the part with the machines not picking it up. Hopefully that explains the PredictIt movement. Please, please, let it explain it.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 11:39:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Panda Express? :w00t:
Nah, local joint. They have a buffet and I just fill up a box and pay by the pound.
How does that work in the age of corona?
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:26:47 PM
The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called. I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.
It looks pretty good - most of the the counties where Trump is leading are 90-98% in except for Cochise and Greenlee which are teensy tiny - Trump could win every vote out there and still not make a dent.
The biggest block of votes left to be counted are 260K early votes in Maricopa, probably not going to give Trump a ton of help. That is more than half of the total 450K outstanding state wide.
Unless I'm missing something I'd buy at 79
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 12:15:54 PM
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:55:49 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 11:14:44 AM
Quote from: chipwich on November 04, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?
Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?
What are you blathering about? It's dozens of different elections, the majority and minority leaders don't affect that.
dude, they are responsible for recruitment and strategy. they also position their incumbents for reelection.
No they aren't no they don't.
It's been ages since I've been to a Chinese buffet. There used to be an amazing one in the little mall near the Happel Stadium where we sometimes went for lunch at my old job.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:33:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:30:26 PM
I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted. Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere? I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.
From Googling, it sounds like bullshit, at least the part with the machines not picking it up. Hopefully that explains the PredictIt movement. Please, please, let it explain it.
Yeah - I'm only seeing that from right-wing celebs who are saying that not only did sharpies not get picked up but that people were handing them out in Republican precincts. This is what it's going to be like I think for the next few weeks :(
NYT hasn't called Arizona and Biden isn't listing it in his states the campain expects to win. The Secretary of State was interviewed here which may be helpful :)
https://twitter.com/KTAR923/status/1324025669286653954?s=20
Edit: And key to this is there are a lot of votes to be counted - they should be counted today. Smaller counties will provide their updates as they complete their counts which will happen throughout the day. Maricopa County is intending to provide an update at the end of the day. So the trends may go one way through the day but a lot really depends on that end of the day update.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 12:43:22 PM
It's been ages since I've been to a Chinese buffet. There used to be an amazing one in the little mall near the Happel Stadium where we sometimes went for lunch at my old job.
I feel like buffet food has been hit particularly hard by concerns about public health/pandemics :ph34r:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 12:42:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:26:47 PM
The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called. I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.
It looks pretty good - most of the the counties where Trump is leading are 90-98% in except for Cochise and Greenlee which are teensy tiny - Trump could win every vote out there and still not make a dent.
The biggest block of votes left to be counted are 260K early votes in Maricopa, probably not going to give Trump a ton of help. That is more than half of the total 450K outstanding state wide.
Unless I'm missing something I'd buy at 79
That's what I saw a well on NYT pages, and likewise I thought that Trump votes aren't there, unless for some unusual reason it's the red votes that would be counted last. However, if the rumors of a Maricopa recount really are true, and that Sharpie thing was indeed material, then it may not be the uncounted votes that are the issue, but actually the counted votes. It also bothers me that no one seems to report percentage of spoiled ballots, since it could be a rather critical number.
Also the USPS case seems more striking/serious than sharpiegate.
Biden just passed 70 million in popular vote, which is apparently biggest ever? Trump must be fuming at this. :D
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 12:53:49 PM
Biden just passed 70 million in popular vote, which is apparently biggest ever? Trump must be fuming at this. :D
Trump's count is 2nd biggest ever and wasn't achieved by illegals voting. Easy. :P
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 12:42:15 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 12:25:54 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 11:39:15 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
Man, I don't have it together at the best of times. This is more than I can stand. I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.
Panda Express? :w00t:
Nah, local joint. They have a buffet and I just fill up a box and pay by the pound.
How does that work in the age of corona?
I go right after it opens, at 10:30 in the morning.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 12:53:49 PM
Biden just passed 70 million in popular vote, which is apparently biggest ever? Trump must be fuming at this. :D
FAKE NEWS.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 11:52:06 AM
@BB & all
That's what CC is saying.
Yeah, but BB is never really going to understand, he views the world through Alberta Conservative glasses.
@ FunkMunk, I think Sheilbh makes a good point, but doesn't really address my point.
Liberal Democracy is at risk everywhere, just more so in the US, and that is now going to spread faster to the rest of us now. And I don't see that changing largely because of the way election spending rules work in the US. It is almost impossible for a strong liberal democracy to flourish under those conditions.
tldr - Liberal Democracy is fucked. Now what?
I was despondent about the future of Liberal Democracy before but now I think historians may well mark this election as the clear mark of its downward slide.
And AZ is down to 68 cents. Ugh.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Most of the time when you see a lawyer on a high profile case without an underlying commercial dispute - it is pro bono work.
It is what a lot of us do - JR included. :)
To be honest I hadn't really followed your conversation so hadn't properly read your point - I just, as I often do, just went in with a two footed challenge and hoped for the best :blush: :(
I will think about your point - I'm not sure I agree.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 01:10:06 PM
To be honest I hadn't really followed your conversation so hadn't properly read your point - I just, as I often do, just went in with a two footed challenge and hoped for the best :blush: :(
I will think about your point - I'm not sure I agree.
Happy to hear your view :)
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 01:09:00 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? :lol:
Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.
Most of the time when you see a lawyer on a high profile case without an underlying commercial dispute - it is pro bono work.
It is what a lot of us do - JR included. :)
Well damn. Not even the lawyers are winning.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 12:53:49 PM
Biden just passed 70 million in popular vote, which is apparently biggest ever? Trump must be fuming at this. :D
Trump's latest tweet:
They are finding Biden votes all over the place — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So bad for our Country!
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 01:08:19 PM
And AZ is down to 68 cents. Ugh.
What was it on Monday?
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 01:15:00 PM
Trump's latest tweet:
They are finding Biden votes all over the place — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So bad for our Country!
What a loser. I don't think he's intentionally trying to destabilize our democracy like some people probably do, but he's just not capable of shutting up and waiting for the outcome without mouthing off.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El_2_A-XUAECdc7?format=jpg&name=medium)
Personally, I hope every state where Trump demands a recount *increases* the margin on recount. :P
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 04, 2020, 01:16:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 01:08:19 PM
And AZ is down to 68 cents. Ugh.
What was it on Monday?
It was 50 cents on Monday, but on Monday we needed AZ a hell of a lot less than we do today.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 01:21:08 PM
Personally, I hope every state where Trump demands a recount *increases* the margin on recount. :P
*shrug* If without the recount you'll definitely lose, you have nothing to lose if you ask for one (other than I guess some dignity, which Trump has none of that anyway).
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 10:56:35 AM
The AP called Arizona for Biden before midnight last night and haven't budged from their call since. :hmm:
IIRC AP never called Florida from 2000, a sort of point of principle on their part.
Or am I confusing them with AFP?
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 01:19:33 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El_2_A-XUAECdc7?fo=jpg&name=medium)
Where do you keep getting this stuff?
Such projection :lol:
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 01:19:32 PMWhat a loser. I don't think he's intentionally trying to destabilize our democracy like some people probably do, but he's just not capable of shutting up and waiting for the outcome without mouthing off.
I feel like it might not be intentional. But if you have a leader who is psychologically incapable of losing, I think that will probably be inevitably, inherently destabilising.
It's interesting that at work, my UK colleagues are far more interested in our election than my American (mostly pretty young) colleagues. I gave one coworker a 15-minute breakdown/American civics lesson of how the Electoral College works and other generalities of the US political system (all while working very hard to self-enforce my strict adherence to nonpartisanship in the workplace political discussion).
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2020, 01:31:48 PM
It's interesting that at work, my UK colleagues are far more interested in our election than my American (mostly pretty young) colleagues. I gave one coworker a 15-minute breakdown/American civics lesson of how the Electoral College works and other generalities of the US political system (all while working very hard to self-enforce my strict adherence to nonpartisanship in the workplace political discussion).
Also, you Brits (in the military environment) seem to talk way more openly about religion/politics at work than is ever allowed by the decorum of the Stateside equivalents I have been in. It is pretty taboo anywhere I've worked before (as it should be).
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:33:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:30:26 PM
I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted. Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere? I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.
From Googling, it sounds like bullshit, at least the part with the machines not picking it up. Hopefully that explains the PredictIt movement. Please, please, let it explain it.
I'm hearing that the sharpie votes were mistakenly sent to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama and got counted there.
(https://i.ibb.co/kJmZ7Xj/Screenshot-20201104-183341-Chrome.jpg)
Guardian burn :bowler:
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2020, 01:31:48 PM
It's interesting that at work, my UK colleagues are far more interested in our election than my American (mostly pretty young) colleagues. I gave one coworker a 15-minute breakdown/American civics lesson of how the Electoral College works and other generalities of the US political system (all while working very hard to self-enforce my strict adherence to nonpartisanship in the workplace political discussion).
Also, you Brits (in the military environment) seem to talk way more openly about religion/politics at work than is ever allowed by the decorum of the Stateside equivalents I have been in. It is pretty taboo anywhere I've worked before (as it should be).
It's good for people to discuss such things outside their echo chambers.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 04, 2020, 01:37:48 PM
It's good for people to discuss such things outside their echo chambers.
I often wondered myself whether this taboo is good for democracy. On the one hand, you clearly want to avoid situations where people get at each others' throats in the workplace. On the other hand, workplace is the one place where people of different political views are intermingling. Maybe it would help keep the heat down if we had people discussing politics where there is some pressure to keep things civil.
People will comment on politics at work, but things are kept civil. I mean, my senior boss is very conservative, and I'm fairly liberal, but we work quite well together because we align generally quite well on work stuff.
Quote from: Syt on November 04, 2020, 01:49:00 PM
People will comment on politics at work, but things are kept civil. I mean, my senior boss is very conservative, and I'm fairly liberal, but we work quite well together because we align generally quite well on work stuff.
Yeah in the workplace you still have to be able to work with people. I don't know many of my colleagues opinions - I mean, I have a few colleagues who are SNP supporters, work with some clients who support Brexit and at least one who was a massive Trump fan (since moved to another firm). You just get on with it.
Edit: Oh and I have one colleague who is very involved in the Greens :lol:
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 01:42:29 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 04, 2020, 01:37:48 PM
It's good for people to discuss such things outside their echo chambers.
I often wondered myself whether this taboo is good for democracy. On the one hand, you clearly want to avoid situations where people get at each others' throats in the workplace. On the other hand, workplace is the one place where people of different political views are intermingling. Maybe it would help keep the heat down if we had people discussing politics where there is some pressure to keep things civil.
I'm more specifically in the military-workplace context. I think it is very important there.
But I also wondered if the difference might be that for Brits (as I understand it), their head of the armed forces is technically good Queen Liz, while our Commander in Chief is a more political office.
In other election news, the new Mississippi flag has been approved.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Flag_of_Mississippi_%22New_Magnolia_Flag%22.svg/255px-Flag_of_Mississippi_%22New_Magnolia_Flag%22.svg.png)
MAH HERITAGE :cry:
If you want even more excitement:
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/719120818998607880/773617448246575135/unknown-20.png)
CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden (the first flip state they've actually called).
Former Wisconsin Governor (and full-on Trump supporter) on Twitter:
QuoteAfter recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI,
@realDonaldTrump
numbers went up by 131.
As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020
https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2020, 01:59:10 PM
But I also wondered if the difference might be that for Brits (as I understand it), their head of the armed forces is technically good Queen Liz, while our Commander in Chief is a more political office.
I think that's key. And it's one of the bits where I think the monarchy is a little more than a technicality - the forces, from my experience, take the Queen and their royal patron pretty seriously. There's a lot of respect.
While no politician is entitled to respect. I think it's true of British society in general (for the Queen - probably not Charles) but especially strong in the military.
It must be really challenging in the US military at the minute. Because the Queen does the "dignified" bits of the state here and in the US Presidents have traditionally been able to pivot and know when they act as head of state. Trump doesn't.
The flipside is that the military in the UK do not like being dragged into politics or used as a prop. The only politician I can think of who's done the speech with a backdrop of soldiers is Blair and it went down badly (and was seen to reflect badly on commanders for letting it happen) and even there it's only for "state" matters not politics. I've never seen us go as far as the Aussies in this video, but I hope something similar would happen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heDGha25f9w
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 12:19:30 PM
I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore. If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump.
It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves. They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it. They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons. The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.
The "shy trump voters" gets some ridicule because of how in your face Trump support is in rural areas around here...and I want to say it is insane. I don't get it at all, but Trump even got over 90% of the vote in one Georgia county with turnout off the charts. He had a rally in Rome, Georgia (a small town) a few days ago and it was basically standing room only 2.5 hours before the rally--there was a story of a guy who was decided to skip I guess the big event of the past few years in Rome (Trump visiting) so he could keep going door to door to try to encourage people to vote.
But in urban/suburban areas...I'm in a really wealthy congressional district that went for Romney over Obama 61-38 (23 point margin). In 2016, those margins were destroyed--Trump only won by a point --48-47. I don't see much visible support for Trump, but half of people must be supporting him. I don't know anyone at work that admits to supporting Trump, but coworkers are very open about supporting Biden.
I had the thought on the way to the polls--it was a terrible impression for last minute voters. The largest Trump sign in the area had been vandalized, and some stores boarded up due to the election.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 04, 2020, 02:09:24 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2020, 01:59:10 PM
But I also wondered if the difference might be that for Brits (as I understand it), their head of the armed forces is technically good Queen Liz, while our Commander in Chief is a more political office.
I think that's key. And it's one of the bits where I think the monarchy is a little more than a technicality - the forces, from my experience, take the Queen and their royal patron pretty seriously. There's a lot of respect.
While no politician is entitled to respect. I think it's true of British society in general (for the Queen - probably not Charles) but especially strong in the military.
It must be really challenging in the US military at the minute. Because the Queen does the "dignified" bits of the state here and in the US Presidents have traditionally been able to pivot and know when they act as head of state. Trump doesn't.
The flipside is that the military in the UK do not like being dragged into politics or used as a prop. The only politician I can think of who's done the speech with a backdrop of soldiers is Blair and it went down badly (and was seen to reflect badly on commanders for letting it happen) and even there it's only for "state" matters not politics. I've never seen us go as far as the Aussies in this video, but I hope something similar would happen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heDGha25f9w
That is great. :)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 07:56:21 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:27:19 AM
But something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.
After you put it in the mail box the amount of time it takes to get to the counters is out of your hands. I think a post mark deadline, which is what Iowa does, is perfect.
Agree. And it follows the guidelines for our military, too.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 02:04:42 PM
CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden (the first flip state they've actually called).
AP now calling Wisgahnsin for Biden too.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 02:04:42 PM
CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden (the first flip state they've actually called).
AP has called it too (they had also called Arizona last night). Maybe Michigan will be called soon now?
Does all this calling actually mean jack shit? :unsure:
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
Does all this calling actually mean jack shit? :unsure:
Not officially. The election is actually held at some point between now and the New Years when all the electors get together.
WaPo:
QuoteTrump campaign says it is filing lawsuit to halt Michigan vote count 'until meaningful access has been granted'
The Trump campaign said Wednesday that it is filing a lawsuit to halt the vote count in the battleground state of Michigan until state officials grant the campaign "meaningful access" to the ballot opening and counting process.
The move is the latest attempt by the Trump campaign to go on offense in a state where Biden is narrowly leading as results continue to be tallied after Election Day. As of Wednesday afternoon, large, mostly heavily Democratic jurisdictions, including Detroit, were still counting ballots in Michigan.
The state's 16 electoral votes could prove crucial in a presidential race that has gone down to the wire. Trump narrowly won Michigan four years ago.
"President Trump's campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law," Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement. "We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted. We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access."
He added that Trump "is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else."
Soon after the Trump campaign issued its statement, Biden responded in a three-word tweet: "Count every vote."
With an estimated 96 percent of the vote counted, unofficial results showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan by about 37,000 votes, or less than one percentage point, as of Wednesday afternoon.
I have renamed the thread to make it more accurate. Let's hope I don't have to amend it again.
What does that mean? Will it be halted now?
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 02:34:22 PM
I have renamed the thread to make it more accurate. Let's hope I don't have to amend it again.
dammit lips, should have amended it to month.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:34:31 PM
What does that mean? Will it be halted now?
the voting in Michigan? No it won't.
Trump wins highest non white support for the GOP since 1960. Let that one sink in.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
Does all this calling actually mean jack shit? :unsure:
we are going to be in for legal challenges for the next month, instead of just Florida like in 2000 it's going to be multiple states probably
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:34:31 PM
What does that mean? Will it be halted now?
Um this doesn't normally happen so no idea.
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 02:35:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 02:34:22 PM
I have renamed the thread to make it more accurate. Let's hope I don't have to amend it again.
dammit lips, should have amended it to month.
Like I said - lets hope I don't have to do that...
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 02:37:13 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 02:35:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 04, 2020, 02:34:22 PM
I have renamed the thread to make it more accurate. Let's hope I don't have to amend it again.
dammit lips, should have amended it to month.
Like I said - lets hope I don't have to do that...
because of recount demand and Michigan t won't be over this week.
At any rate, seeing how close the results are, I think we have final proof that Trump's win in 2016 was not a one time fluke. Enough people either like what he does, or buy into the belief that a Democrat led government would be worse than Trump's shitshow.
So... With it being so close. What's the chance of faithless electors?
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 02:43:38 PM
So... With it being so close. What's the chance of faithless electors?
I would say the chances of faithless electors goes way up when the election isn't close. Some electors like to make a statement when it won't effect the outcome.
No chance some Democratic elector is going to hand it to Trump and vice versa.
There are a number of very big polling/projection misses at the state level. Just want to add one more (don't worry, I won't do a comprehensive list). Susan Collins is going to win Maine by about 9 points. Every poll in the nate silver forecast had Gideon winning, and silver projected Gideon to win by 2. For whatever reason, the Republican pollsters didn't seem to hit this one.
At a certain point, why waste money on pollsters and analysis? You can spitball almost as well.
With what he has already been called for and with the addition of the states where he's currently leading (Michigan and Nevada) Biden would already be at 270 electoral votes.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 02:48:45 PM
With what he has already been called for and with the addition of the states where he's currently leading (Michigan and Nevada) Biden would already be at 270 electoral votes.
That's why Trump isn't saying
all counting should stop :P
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 02:47:33 PM
There are a number of very big polling/projection misses at the state level. Just want to add one more (don't worry, I won't do a comprehensive list). Susan Collins is going to win Maine by about 9 points. Every poll in the nate silver forecast had Gideon winning, and silver projected Gideon to win by 2. For whatever reason, the Republican pollsters didn't seem to hit this one.
At a certain point, why waste money on pollsters and analysis? You can spitball almost as well.
Yeah, I think both parties are pretty pissed about wasting millions of dollars on these races based on some of this garbage polling.
So it seems Arizona is legitimately in play regardless of it being called. Predictit gives Trump a 22% shot.
Nate Silver commented the following in the past hour on twitter:
Basically the question is whether Trump can win all three of Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. There are long-shot scenarios where North Carolina or Nevada come into play, but it's mostly about those three states. Very hard to see a path for Trump in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Trump needs to win the remaining AZ votes by something like 20-25% depending on how many ballots there are. By party registration, late-arriving mail votes were something like +19% R, per my (quick) calculations.
With that said, there are some reasons to think the late-arriving ballots would be less R than you'd gather from party ID. For one thing, the early arriving mail ballots went more heavily for Biden than party ID would suggest, perhaps reflecting his edge amount independents.
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 02:36:43 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
Does all this calling actually mean jack shit? :unsure:
we are going to be in for legal challenges for the next month, instead of just Florida like in 2000 it's going to be multiple states probably
There probably will be legal challenges, but what made Florida unique is that the election was for all intents and purposes a tie. A handful of votes changing in a recount could change the winner.
Biden is up over 20k in Wisconsin and over 30k in Michigan (though they are still counting).
A legal challenge just isn't very interesting or likely to be productive.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 02:55:25 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 04, 2020, 02:36:43 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
Does all this calling actually mean jack shit? :unsure:
we are going to be in for legal challenges for the next month, instead of just Florida like in 2000 it's going to be multiple states probably
There probably will be legal challenges, but what made Florida unique is that the election was for all intents and purposes a tie. A handful of votes changing in a recount could change the winner.
Biden is up over 20k in Wisconsin and over 30k in Michigan (though they are still counting).
A legal challenge just isn't very interesting or likely to be productive.
oh I agree, just what I heard was the challenge of recount can't even go into effect till next Wednesday and then Wisconsin has 13 days to process said recount ( not that it will take that long)
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 02:47:33 PM
There are a number of very big polling/projection misses at the state level. Just want to add one more (don't worry, I won't do a comprehensive list). Susan Collins is going to win Maine by about 9 points. Every poll in the nate silver forecast had Gideon winning, and silver projected Gideon to win by 2. For whatever reason, the Republican pollsters didn't seem to hit this one.
At a certain point, why waste money on pollsters and analysis? You can spitball almost as well.
yeah this was one that surprised me. Though with like 175,000 ballot to still be counted i think final margin will be closer.
Remember Maine's ranked voting so if Collins dips below 50% she can still lose even if she is still up. If it weren't for that quirk it would have probably already been called for her.
Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine? I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine? I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).
He has three so far. The other has not yet been called yet but the President is up.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 03:02:26 PM
Remember Maine's ranked voting so if Collins dips below 50% she can still lose even if she is still up. If it weren't for that quirk it would have probably already been called for her.
that's what I was expecting, until her challenger apparently has conceded.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 03:06:19 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine? I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).
He has three so far. The other has not yet been called yet but the President is up.
:hmm: Is that sole electoral vote considered critical? NE2 was being discussed as critical last night on CNN but I don't recall anyone talking about the Maine electoral vote. Maybe because it was assumed Trump would win it, so no point discussing it?
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine? I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).
Trump got Maine's remaining vote, Biden got the other 3.
When I was checking out some combinations earlier Maine was critical but I think it has lost that now.
Apparently the Trump campaign is going hard at Fox and AP for calling Arizona for Biden and are demanding that call to be retracted.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 09:06:39 AM
Oregon legalized, kinda, magic mushroom. :lol:
You're welcome. :)
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 03:13:47 PM
Apparently the Trump campaign are going hard at Fox and AP for calling Arizona for Biden and are demanding that call to be retracted.
I think they have an argument that they have a viable shot at winning, though they are a decided underdog.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
:lmfao:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 03:17:27 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 03:13:47 PM
Apparently the Trump campaign are going hard at Fox and AP for calling Arizona for Biden and are demanding that call to be retracted.
I think they have an argument that they have a viable shot at winning, though they are a decided underdog.
I agree, they actually do have a point here. I guess that's one of their two times today. Clearly the only reason Arizona stays called because it was already called.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:09:56 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 03:06:19 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:05:36 PM
Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine? I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).
He has three so far. The other has not yet been called yet but the President is up.
:hmm: Is that sole electoral vote considered critical? NE2 was being discussed as critical last night on CNN but I don't recall anyone talking about the Maine electoral vote. Maybe because it was assumed Trump would win it, so no point discussing it?
no it is not
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
Before the election, the Senate was 53-47.
Not to be negative, but right now the democrats seem likely to get 2 republican seats (Arizona and Colorado) while republicans seem likely to get 1 of theirs (Alabama).
Of the races still out there, only 3 seem up in the air: Michigan, which may be a republican pickup. And 2 georgia races that are going to be run again in January (most likely). They will be heavy underdogs in the georgia races.
So you are probably looking at 52 or 53 republicans in the senate. There is one moderate: Susan Collins. They will probably keep the filibuster, so getting anything done will require 60 votes/12 or 13 republican senators except for judicial confirmations or budget items.
There was all this talk on how maybe Texas would flip this year, or if not, it would definately flip blue by the next presidential election.
Looking at results:
Prez 2016:
GOP: 52.23%
DEM: 43.24%
Prez 2020:
GOP: 52.2%
DEM: 46.3%
Senate 2012:
GOP: 56,5%
DEM: 40.6%
Senate 2018:
GOP: 50,9%
DEM: 48.3%
Senate 2020
GOP: 53.6%
DEM: 43.7%
(with 97% of the vote so far)
Am I missing something? This State seems to have been an anomaly in 2018, but otherwise, it's been solidly Republican since about the time I started following US politics (mid 1st to 2nd Clinton mandate).
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
Were you, by any chance, living on Mars during the last decade? ;)
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:27:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
Were you, by any chance, living on Mars during the last decade? ;)
I recall one voting for the impeachment and hasn't one (two?) of the recently elected ones managed to do so specifically due to distancing themself from trumps shit?
And honestly, I find these results disapointing. I really thought I was wrong and Donald Trump would be just a blip on the US political map, but über patriotism and insanity is the future of American politics, I guess. Too many people like this style of politics, all in the Twitter rage, none on the actions. People are so easily seduced by a sweet talker that it's depressing. I fear this model is slowly getting imported over here. :(
@viper Nope, you're not, it doesn't look like it'll flip soon.
Supposedly the Biden campaign didn't think Texas could possibly flip and he didn't spent much or any time campaigning there, though they did send Kamala.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:29:45 PM
I recall one voting for the impeachment and hasn't one (two?) of the recently elected ones managed to do so specifically due to distancing themself from trumps shit?
Romney, and Romney is a decent guy but he's also a hardcore conservative (he's Mormon).
I really need to take a nap, but I'm scared to wake up and find that actually Wisconsin went to Trump, or something like that.
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:26:40 PM
Am I missing something? This State seems to have been an anomaly in 2018, but otherwise, it's been solidly Republican since about the time I started following US politics (mid 1st to 2nd Clinton mandate).
No whatever momentum from 2018 has subsided for now. The suburbs moved a bit redwards from 2018 and there was no big turnout in the Tejano areas. Things seem to have just kind of locked in the new balance of power (I think...I haven't reviewed every race but it seems we at least held our Congressional gains from 2018) which is closer than before but still comfortably team Republican.
It was a hope based on 2018 and wondering if it indicated some kind of shift. Well it didn't.
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:29:58 PM
And honestly, I find these results disapointing. I really thought I was wrong and Donald Trump would be just a blip on the US political map, but über patriotism and insanity is the future of American politics, I guess. Too many people like this style of politics, all in the Twitter rage, none on the actions. People are so easily seduced by a sweet talker that it's depressing. I fear this model is slowly getting imported over here. :(
I don't think you guys should assume that everyone voting for Trump is in love with him or anything.
A lot of people in 2016 voted for Trump, not because they liked him, but because they despised Hillary and viewed her as an existential threat to the republic.
I don't know if a lot of people voting for Trump in 2020 are mainly voting against Biden, but it seems possible too.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:29:45 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:27:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Two years of McConnell blocking all of Biden's appointments, followed by the GOP taking the House in 2022 and picking up a seat in the Senate despite an unfavorable map. Yay.
Aren't there one or two decent republicans who will allow rational stuff through?
Were you, by any chance, living on Mars during the last decade? ;)
I recall one voting for the impeachment and hasn't one (two?) of the recently elected ones managed to do so specifically due to distancing themself from trumps shit?
Mitt Romney voted on impeachment for 1 of the charge, abuse of power, I think.
But he did vote for Trump's pick on the Supreme court, twice.
There were 2 who openly opposed Trump and they chose to retire rather than loose a primary.
As long as people like Derspiess will prefer voting for corrupt and inept Republican morons over any honest centrist Democrat, the GOP will be firmly entrenched where it is right now on the political specter.
I just don't see how can Biden do anything without a majority in the Senate and in the Supreme Court. All because some leftist assholes stayed home the last time instead of voting for an imperfect candidate. Now it's too late.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:30:24 PM
@viper Nope, you're not, it doesn't look like it'll flip soon.
Supposedly the Biden campaign didn't think Texas could possibly flip and he didn't spent much or any time campaigning there, though they did send Kamala.
Yeah and that was a disaster and an embarrassment.
There is plenty to win in Texas but no statewide races are in the cards, pending whatever shift is going on.
I will say the Republican leadership is becoming more unhinged for some reason and out of staters with radical views are taking over key offices. So it might get ugly at the countryside gets ready to take on the cities.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:31:54 PM
I really need to take a nap, but I'm scared to wake up and find that actually Wisconsin went to Trump, or something like that.
My work productivity is not great today.
Michigan and PA GOP are trying to disrupt the vote count in their respective states. Trump has declared victory in PA and of course they're counting on the Supreme Court to rule in a way that hands them a victory.
Trump's campaign is declaring victory in Pennsilvania, where a million votes have not yet been counted.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:29:58 PM
And honestly, I find these results disapointing. I really thought I was wrong and Donald Trump would be just a blip on the US political map, but über patriotism and insanity is the future of American politics, I guess. Too many people like this style of politics, all in the Twitter rage, none on the actions. People are so easily seduced by a sweet talker that it's depressing. I fear this model is slowly getting imported over here. :(
I don't think you guys should assume that everyone voting for Trump is in love with him or anything.
A lot of people in 2016 voted for Trump, not because they liked him, but because they despised Hillary and viewed her as an existential threat to the republic.
I don't know if a lot of people voting for Trump in 2020 are mainly voting against Biden, but it seems possible too.
As Biden himself would say:
come on! :P
I understand despising a political candidate. Especially some dumbass politician like Hillary Clinton.
However, If I'm given the choice between the current leader of the Bloc Québécois, a crook suspected of rape, and a Trump clone, I'll go with the alleged rapist crook. No matter how much I despise that man. Heck, I voted for the Green Party last time just to send a message to the Conservatives (not that it worked, but I tried, anyway :P ).
People like Trump and he succeeded at making them believe that whatever is not reported by Fox News or the likes of Breitbart is fake news. People don't even believe he collided with Russians, even after the Republican Senate admitted it. FFS. We're all in deep shit right now.
Besides, it goes deeper than just disliking Biden: Republicans are on their way to holding the Senate and making some progress in the house. Maybe there are missing ballots that could change the issue, I don't know. I'm in a bad mood right now. 4 more years of roller-coaster on the stock market is extremely bad for my health...
Even more reason to vote Conservative at the next election to get rid of our moronic PM. We need someone strong to assume leadership and can't wait for anything good out of the US.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 03:40:02 PM
Trump's campaign is declaring victory in Pennsilvania, where millions of votes have not yet been counted.
Trump says a lot of things. :sleep:
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:40:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 03:40:02 PM
Trump's campaign is declaring victory in Pennsilvania, where millions of votes have not yet been counted.
Trump says a lot of things. :sleep:
It's not Trump himself but his campaign team (the news quote Trump's campaign manager Bill Stepien) and Eric Trump has already tweeted their proclamation of victory as well.
You think they're not saying that in a pathetic attempt to lick their master's boots? :D
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:33:49 PM
I don't know if a lot of people voting for Trump in 2020 are mainly voting against Biden, but it seems possible too.
I haven't given this take yet, because I not only am totally consumed by one political topic and I stand almost alone on languish, but I wonder how much covid played into the results as pro gop.
Trump ran a lot of ads with Biden saying he would lock the country down and "listen to the scientists". Especially the latter may sound dumb, and those of us that can work from home and may have some savings may not be terrified by lockdown.
But the vast majority of workers are back on the job and not working from home for some time--going to work isn't the scary option for them. A lot is being made that minorities went to the GOP in bigger numbers than any election since 1960, but it could be that for many the calculation was less "I love Trump's GOP" and more "The GOP may be full of motherfuckers but I need to go to work and my kids need to be in school."
Couple that with the recent unrest and boarding up places for the election...topics are hitting closer to home than they have in other elections.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:43:33 PM
You think they're not saying that in a pathetic attempt to lick their master's boots? :D
They've also filed suit to halt the counting of remaining votes in the state.
In the 100 counties with the highest COVID deaths, Trump has 55% of the vote, 5% higher than 4 years ago.
White americans would rather die than let go of white supremacy. :lmfao:
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:10:07 PM
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
I have a suspicion that the reason is Covid. The Biden campaign was loath to do the normal things like drag people to the polls on election day out of fear of spreading Covid. Trump's people had no such fear as they don't seem to value human life.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 04, 2020, 03:50:31 PM
In the 100 counties with the highest COVID deaths, Trump has 55% of the vote, 5% higher than 4 years ago.
White americans would rather die than let go of white supremacy. :lmfao:
Maybe those that have the most direct experience with covid know that it isn't worth shutting down over.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:29:58 PM
And honestly, I find these results disapointing. I really thought I was wrong and Donald Trump would be just a blip on the US political map, but über patriotism and insanity is the future of American politics, I guess. Too many people like this style of politics, all in the Twitter rage, none on the actions. People are so easily seduced by a sweet talker that it's depressing. I fear this model is slowly getting imported over here. :(
I don't think you guys should assume that everyone voting for Trump is in love with him or anything.
A lot of people in 2016 voted for Trump, not because they liked him, but because they despised Hillary and viewed her as an existential threat to the republic.
I don't know if a lot of people voting for Trump in 2020 are mainly voting against Biden, but it seems possible too.
I don't think it is so much "against Biden" as hold-your-nose voting...or, the "Trump is an ass, but MAH IDEOLOGY" voting.
Right, that too. That especially describes evangelicals, I think.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 03:51:15 PM
I have a suspicion that the reason is Covid. The Biden campaign was loath to do the normal things like drag people to the polls on election day out of fear of spreading Covid. Trump's people had no such fear as they don't seem to value human life.
Which was a terrible decision by democrats. If democracy is important enough to fight wars defending, then elections should be worth a bit of risk too.
I don't think most Trump voters were voting against Joe Biden. I think most Trump voters were voting for Donald Trump the man. They like him or they feel some sort of affinity or connection to the man as strange as that might seem. He fights their perceived enemies and he suffers for them. That explains a lot of the cult of personality surrounding him.
That sounds like the reasoning used for Hitler's alleged appeal at the time. :hmm:
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 03:51:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:10:07 PM
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
I have a suspicion that the reason is Covid. The Biden campaign was loath to do the normal things like drag people to the polls on election day out of fear of spreading Covid. Trump's people had no such fear as they don't seem to value human life.
If that's true, then that's just criminal incompetence. If you want to save people's lives from Covid, you make sure that the orange imbecile is not leading the fight against it, and that his enablers in the Senate are not in position to block everything you do. The Democrats' lack of killer instinct in politics is unforgivable, because it cost lives and may very well cost us a democracy.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 04:00:47 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 03:51:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:10:07 PM
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
I have a suspicion that the reason is Covid. The Biden campaign was loath to do the normal things like drag people to the polls on election day out of fear of spreading Covid. Trump's people had no such fear as they don't seem to value human life.
If that's true, then that's just criminal incompetence. If you want to save people's lives from Covid, you make sure that the orange imbecile is not leading the fight against it, and that his enablers in the Senate are not in position to block everything you do. The Democrats' lack of killer instinct in politics is unforgivable, because it cost lives and may very well cost us a democracy.
Biden was drafted. On top of what you are saying, they've had a lack of charismatic and competent candidates for the last few elections. Obama was something of an outlier.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 04, 2020, 04:02:45 PM
Biden was drafted. On top of what you are saying, they've had a lack of charismatic and competent candidates for the last few elections. Obama was something of an outlier.
Obama isn't an outlier when it comes to lack of killer instinct, he is exhibit A. In his first year he wasted the supermajority of a lifetime, and in his last year he still failed to appreciate that GOP was not bound by any rules in its pursuit of power.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on November 04, 2020, 04:02:45 PM
Biden was drafted. On top of what you are saying, they've had a lack of charismatic and competent candidates for the last few elections. Obama was something of an outlier.
So is Trump the Republicans lacked charisma and star power since Reagan. Those kinds of talents don't come along much.
https://twitter.com/PattersonNBC/status/1324086177885003778
Quote
Steve Patterson
@PattersonNBC
#BREAKING: Large, animated crush of "stop the count" protestors trying to push their way into TCF hall in #Detroit where ballots are being counted.
They're being blocked by guards at the door.
Pizza boxes are pushed against the window to obstruct view. It's tense.
@NBCNews
I mean Biden and Peters presently ahead so if they want to stop the count now that would be ok.
Michigan seems to be mathematically Biden's (60k votes of advantage with 54k votes remaining to be counted) but it's not yet being called.
CNN just called Michigan for Biden.
I am not sure what is going on in Nevada and Arizona. Are they counting in secret or something? I am not seeing updated vote counts anywhere.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:19:44 PM
CNN just called Michigan for Biden.
I am not sure what is going on in Nevada and Arizona. Are they counting in secret or something? I am not seeing updated vote counts anywhere.
I so hope this comes down to Arizona putting their thumb down to Trump.
I to applaud Wisconsin and Michigan for finishing their counts so quickly under the circumstances. I don't know what those other states are doing.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 04:21:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:19:44 PM
CNN just called Michigan for Biden.
I am not sure what is going on in Nevada and Arizona. Are they counting in secret or something? I am not seeing updated vote counts anywhere.
I so hope this comes down to Arizona putting their thumb down to Trump.
It would be better if Biden decisively wins Pennsylvania and also pulls out a state like Georgia so that it doesn't come down to any one state.
Nevada officials said no updates until tomorrow noon EST, late last night.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 04:36:53 PM
Nevada officials said no updates until tomorrow noon EST, late last night.
So November 5th at noon?
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 04:36:52 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 04:21:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:19:44 PM
CNN just called Michigan for Biden.
I am not sure what is going on in Nevada and Arizona. Are they counting in secret or something? I am not seeing updated vote counts anywhere.
I so hope this comes down to Arizona putting their thumb down to Trump.
It would be better if Biden decisively wins Pennsylvania and also pulls out a state like Georgia so that it doesn't come down to any one state.
Yeah what is going on in Atlanta? When do they project to have all the votes counted?
Gotcha.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 04:36:53 PM
Nevada officials said no updates until tomorrow noon EST, late last night.
That really is bullshit. My brother works as the controller of a manufacturing company out in the sticks, and he is saying the workforce is becoming more and more angry as the day progresses "because of the voter fraud giving Biden the lead". He added he works with dumbasses.
It is destabilizing to have this drag out. Maybe if we had invested in education 20 years ago, people would understand and respond maturely, but we didn't. If Florida can learn how to count quickly, other states can too.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:39:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 04:36:52 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 04, 2020, 04:21:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:19:44 PM
CNN just called Michigan for Biden.
I am not sure what is going on in Nevada and Arizona. Are they counting in secret or something? I am not seeing updated vote counts anywhere.
I so hope this comes down to Arizona putting their thumb down to Trump.
It would be better if Biden decisively wins Pennsylvania and also pulls out a state like Georgia so that it doesn't come down to any one state.
Yeah what is going on in Atlanta? When do they project to have all the votes counted?
Well, they fixed the water main break, but then the power went out. They got the power restored, but a tiger escaped from the zoo and is loose among the ballots. So maybe after that, they'll have results?
Nevada is strange to me... the margin looks razor thin there (~8K votes) but almost since polls closed, AP has had it leaning toward Trump even with a ton of outstanding votes to be counted and very few updates all day.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 04:39:03 PM
Yeah what is going on in Atlanta? When do they project to have all the votes counted?
Not sure...earlier today the AJC said that they could wrap up by the end of the day, but I haven't seen anything sense then. Knowing the way this place works, if they say "the end of the day", that could be the case, or it could be early december.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 04:41:03 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 04:36:53 PM
Nevada officials said no updates until tomorrow noon EST, late last night.
That really is bullshit. My brother works as the controller of a manufacturing company out in the sticks, and he is saying the workforce is becoming more and more angry as the day progresses "because of the voter fraud giving Biden the lead". He added he works with dumbasses.
It is destabilizing to have this drag out. Maybe if we had invested in education 20 years ago, people would understand and respond maturely, but we didn't. If Florida can learn how to count quickly, other states can too.
In multiple states (not sure about NV, but PA is one), there are laws courtesy of the GOP that forbid early counting of mail-in votes, and they do it entirely to discredit the process.
@AR Southerners are lazy, duh. :)
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 04:44:51 PM
In multiple states (not sure about NV, but PA is one), there are laws courtesy of the GOP that forbid early counting of mail-in votes, and they do it entirely to discredit the process.
That doesn't seem entirely fair. I mean, Democrats are using mail in ballots disproporationately, so they are likely ahead in early votes, which if leaked could hurt Republican turnout.
Anyway, on Georgia, vote counting is really a local matter and they aren't required to be completed until the 13th. But the secretary of state is asking them to move quickly and finish today.
A true final count doesn't seem possible until Friday, because ballots with defects can be cured until then.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 04:51:44 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 04:44:51 PM
In multiple states (not sure about NV, but PA is one), there are laws courtesy of the GOP that forbid early counting of mail-in votes, and they do it entirely to discredit the process.
That doesn't seem entirely fair. I mean, Democrats are using mail in ballots disproporationately, so they are likely ahead in early votes, which if leaked could hurt Republican turnout.
Anyway, on Georgia, vote counting is really a local matter and they aren't required to be completed until the 13th. But the secretary of state is asking them to move quickly and finish today.
A true final count doesn't seem possible until Friday, because ballots with defects can be cured until then.
Florida counts as they come in, which is why they can report so quickly. They do report party affiliation of people who have voted so far (I think, I saw those numbers in tweets and don't recall the source). Dem dominated mail in ballots don't appear to have suppressed the GOP in FL, nor does it look like there was any leak of results, so that seems to be a pretty minor problem. Better to allow states to count ballots early so we can get faster results.
Can Biden resign the Paris Accord without Senate support?
Quote from: Maladict on November 04, 2020, 05:00:04 PM
Can Biden resign the Paris Accord without Senate support?
IIRC the Paris accord was specifically designed not as a treaty precisely so that Obama didn't need to send it to the Senate.
The downside of that approach meant that Trump could just promptly back out of it as well.
Anyone want to explain how michigan is called and wisxonsin not? Wisconsin has 1% left to count and a gap bigger than that whilst in michigan it does look theoretically possible (unlikely) to flip
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:12:20 PM
Anyone want to explain how michigan is called and wisxonsin not? Wisconsin has 1% left to count and a gap bigger than that whilst in michigan it does look theoretically possible (unlikely) to flip
Wisconsin is called.
So Trump himself is now claiming victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, where he claims that ballots have been dumped.
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won't allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported!
And I have claimed the State of New Jersey for the King of Siam. So there.
Someone wanna mock up trump as columbus claiming states for the Queen?
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
So Trump himself is now claiming victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, where he claims that ballots have been dumped.
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won't allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported!
What a loser.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 05:16:53 PM
And I have claimed the State of New Jersey for the King of Siam. So there.
One of you isn't the President of the United States.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
So Trump himself is now claiming victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, where he claims that ballots have been dumped.
Do the claims give him a casus belli?
I don't even get this stop counting nonsense.
It's not like they are counting votes which were cast past closing time.
But I know it's stupid to try and find logics.
This "man" is such a fucking little toddler in an old guy's body it's incredible. And he is half of his country's choice and may still be re-elected.
What is truly amazing is how so many people are so brainwashed they're believing this stuff.
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 03:29:58 PM
And honestly, I find these results disapointing. I really thought I was wrong and Donald Trump would be just a blip on the US political map, but über patriotism and insanity is the future of American politics, I guess. Too many people like this style of politics, all in the Twitter rage, none on the actions. People are so easily seduced by a sweet talker that it's depressing. I fear this model is slowly getting imported over here. :(
I watched a little a bit of Tucker Carlson the other night. He had on a guy hawking a new book (it's one of the books where a hack editorial writer drags out a column to book length to cash in). Book was called "Grow up and Vote for Trump". I found that funny and not just because of Trump's own childlike emotional state and lack of maturity. It was because the previous 5 minutes of the show consisted entirely of Carlson making fun of Kamala Harris' name, interspersed with mockery of the way she dresses and how she talks. It was as if Carlson was simultaneously communing with and combining together a clique of bitchy 6th grade girls and obnoxious 6th grade boys.
It is the politics of asshollery. Being an asshole is not just an unfortunate side effect of having an "authentic" politician. It is an end in itself, a feature not a bug. WAD. Many Americans are genuinely attracted to it - presumably because they confuse lack of decency for toughness. It does speak to a cultural failing. The media sometimes tries to pass it off as anti-elitism but that's B.S. because the targets of asshollery are more often non-elites. Trump didn't rip kids from their parents and shove them into cages to stick to the elites, he did it because he is a soulless immoral person and a giant asshole. For all the tut-tutting there are plenty of Americans cheerleading this stuff.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 04, 2020, 05:19:40 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 05:16:53 PM
And I have claimed the State of New Jersey for the King of Siam. So there.
One of you isn't the President of the United States.
And yet my statement is of equal legal effect.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 05:31:28 PM
And yet my statement is of equal legal effect.
Yes, but Trump isn't looking for legal effect. If that were the case, we'd have known for a while. Trump is fighting in the political arena, where his utterances have had their effects - by virtue of him being President of the United States.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 05:31:28 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 04, 2020, 05:19:40 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 04, 2020, 05:16:53 PM
And I have claimed the State of New Jersey for the King of Siam. So there.
One of you isn't the President of the United States.
And yet my statement is of equal legal effect.
This isn't for you or the courts or any lame law stuff. It's for his supporters. He's telling them he's not going down without a fight. And they'll love him for it.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 04, 2020, 05:24:07 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 05:15:46 PM
So Trump himself is now claiming victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, where he claims that ballots have been dumped.
Do the claims give him a casus belli?
Good analogy. And yes. Yes they do. There's that percentage of his base that believes everything he says . (And the reason he says what he says is to galvanize them). And it' s these people, who, if Biden wins, will believe they have a just cause to raise shit.
A quick note about other elections: ranked choice voting was defeated in MA. That sucks.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 04, 2020, 04:55:43 PM
Florida counts as they come in, which is why they can report so quickly. They do report party affiliation of people who have voted so far (I think, I saw those numbers in tweets and don't recall the source). Dem dominated mail in ballots don't appear to have suppressed the GOP in FL, nor does it look like there was any leak of results, so that seems to be a pretty minor problem. Better to allow states to count ballots early so we can get faster results.
If your thoughts are that there are pros and cons but on the balance they favor starting counts early, I agree it seems to work better in Florida. That is different than saying the delay is entirely about discrediting the process. There are democratic states with similar delays. Are they trying to discredit the process?
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 05:38:34 PM
This isn't for you or the courts or any lame law stuff. It's for his supporters. He's telling them he's not going down without a fight. And they'll love him for it.
And so?
They loved him going to the election, wasn't enough to carry him over.
PA is now up to 78%. Good, please keep trending this way. We really need some redundancy, in case NV or AZ does something weird.
Nate Silver (I know, I know) seems to think Biden could still win Georgia, too.
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:52:22 PM
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Did you explain why you asserted this earlier? :hmm: I don't know why you think Vegas is 'so Trump'.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 04:45:09 PM
@AR Southerners are lazy, duh. :)
Guilty as charged. :cool:
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 05:41:18 PM
A quick note about other elections: ranked choice voting was defeated in MA. That sucks.
it apparently here as well, though we have 120,000 absentee ballots that won't be counted till next week.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:52:22 PM
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Tyr, it is so weird you keep saying that. In 2016, Las Vegas' voted for Clinton over Trump 52-42. It was literally the least Trump county in all of Nevada (and one of only two not to support him).
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:52:22 PM
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Did you explain why you asserted this earlier? :hmm: I don't know why you think Vegas is 'so Trump'.
Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:52:22 PM
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Did you explain why you asserted this earlier? :hmm: I don't know why you think Vegas is 'so Trump'.
It's tawdry and garish.
Of course, New York is naturally the most Trumplike place in the country and they soundly rejected him
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:56:57 PM
Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.
I see. Well let me tell you a little story. My parents live about ten miles outside Atlantic City, which, in the 1980s, was 'Trump's town', what with the casinos he had there. Well guess what? The town is a flaming dumpster fire since he got done using it up and throwing it away, and he's despised in the area (and went down in flames in New Jersey in both 2016 and 2020).
He hasn't done that to Vegas and never will, but don't assume just because a town seems 'sleazy' that Trump is popular there. Atlantic City is a sleazy shithole, too.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 04, 2020, 05:58:40 PM
Of course, New York is naturally the most Trumplike place in the country and they soundly rejected him
Yeah, NYC is also very familiar with Trump and they've also twice now resoundingly rejected him. When people get to really know Trump, they tend to do that.
One day, America as a whole will soundly reject Trump, too. My hope is that he goes to prison after the election and so that day will come sooner rather than later. DON'T PARDON HIM GRANDPA JOE
Michigan called for Biden.
https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/6157997002
Arizona Republic is estimating "at least" 600,000 ballots in Arizona to be counted, as of 11am today.
These are mostly early ballots that were sent in the last couple of days and early ballots dropped off on election day. Trump is still about 91k behind, but that is a big number.
guys, i just realized what is going to happen...Trump pulls out Arizona and Pennsylvania. Georgia goes to Biden.
269-269.
The whole year has been set up for this.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:12:51 PM
guys, i just realized what is going to happen...Trump pulls out Arizona and Pennsylvania. Georgia goes to Biden.
269-269.
The whole year has been set up for this.
Dude, do you you really think it's in your interest for me to drop dead of a stroke?
So to touch on another topic I brought up earlier, weed has been legalized in:
* Arizona
* New Jersey
* Montana
* South Dakota
* Mississippi (medical)
Biden is making the website for his transition public already.
https://buildbackbetter.com/ (https://buildbackbetter.com/)
QuoteThe American people will determine who will serve as the next President of the United States. Votes are still being counted in several states around the country. The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession, climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden‑Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:56:57 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:52:22 PM
Nevada gives me the heeby jeebies.
Las Vegas is just so Trump.
Did you explain why you asserted this earlier? :hmm: I don't know why you think Vegas is 'so Trump'.
Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.
It's a Trumper's version of holidaying in Paris, yes. But they don't necessarily live there.
It seems Biden's team is absolutely convinced they won. I also don't believe they are filing any nuisance lawsuits like Trump's team is, which is pretty telling.
From Vanity Fair:
QuoteAccording to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 06:14:50 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:12:51 PM
guys, i just realized what is going to happen...Trump pulls out Arizona and Pennsylvania. Georgia goes to Biden.
269-269.
The whole year has been set up for this.
Dude, do you you really think it's in your interest for me to drop dead of a stroke?
Can he do it without injuring the body?
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:12:51 PM
guys, i just realized what is going to happen...Trump pulls out Arizona and Pennsylvania. Georgia goes to Biden.
269-269.
The whole year has been set up for this.
What would happen if that's the case? Or rather--what is
supposed to happen?
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
What would happen if that's the case? Or rather--what is supposed to happen?
It's kind of fucked up. The House of Representatives votes to decide the election, but each state delegation gets one vote. Yes, that means Wyoming has as much power in that vote as California does. I guess the delegates get together and vote, and then whomever wins that vote puts one vote in the hat for Trump or Biden.
Biden will end up with 306 at the end.
Trump and Biden. Pistols at dawn.
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:26:37 PM
From Vanity Fair:
QuoteAccording to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood
"According to a source"...
The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 06:29:45 PM
Trump and Biden. Pistols at dawn.
Damn, should have gone with Booty-gig.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:30:39 PM
The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.
I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.
There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:30:39 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:26:37 PM
From Vanity Fair:
QuoteAccording to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood
"According to a source"...
The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.
Because, as anti-science types, the "calling" is akin to the magical incatation that makes it so. In order for it to swing back to Trump, Fox needs to uncall it first so that the spell can work properly.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:28:59 PM
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
What would happen if that's the case? Or rather--what is supposed to happen?
It's kind of fucked up. The House of Representatives votes to decide the election, but each state delegation gets one vote. Yes, that means Wyoming has as much power in that vote as California does. I guess the delegates get together and vote, and then whomever wins that vote puts one vote in the hat for Trump or Biden.
I think Republicans will have ~27 delegations so that means they would ostensibly win. But they have no obligation to chose Trump or Biden. The one rep from Wyoming and one rep from Alaska could decide that someone better than Trump exists, and insist on electing Paul Ryan or something.
Quote from: Berkut on November 04, 2020, 06:28:59 PM
Biden will end up with 306 at the end.
That is what the betting odds say.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:35:21 PM
I think Republicans will have ~27 delegations so that means they would ostensibly win. But they have no obligation to chose Trump or Biden. The one rep from Wyoming and one rep from Alaska could decide that someone better than Trump exists, and insist on electing Paul Ryan or something.
That's right, for sure before yesterday they controlled 27 delegations, so if they all vote on party lines, Trump wins an electoral tie. But I don't believe they are bound to vote for their own party, no, and yeah, certain states only have the single Rep so that Rep can just do whatever the fuck they want to.
Picking a non trump republican would probably best represent the actual election results to be fair.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:56:57 PM
Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.
Tourists don't vote there. Restaurant workers and hotel cleaning staff are going to lean Democrat. FYI, it's a very unionized town.
Is Putin expected to give a concession speech soon, if all goes well?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 06:38:21 PM
Tourists don't vote there. Restaurant workers and hotel cleaning staff are going to lean Democrat. FYI, it's a very unionized town.
Right.
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:33:20 PM
I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.
There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.
At the extreme margins that is plausible, but it requires an extremely close race so small differences in recount procedures matter. We don't have one of those yet.
The more extreme way the courts could intervene--to disallow a swath of submitted votes due to a procedural issue--if the election outcome hinges on that it will be explosive beyond imagination.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:30:39 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:26:37 PM
From Vanity Fair:
QuoteAccording to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood
"According to a source"...
The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.
It matters because Trump's strategy is to win the narrative early, so that vote counting can be influenced or at the least legitimacy of Biden undermined. Fox took some wind out of his sails with the AZ call, though clearly not enough.
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 06:37:51 PM
Picking a non trump republican would probably best represent the actual election results to be fair.
I hope it doesn't come to that and since it's never happened, it's really hard to predict what might happen. For example, the lone Representative from Wyoming is Dick Cheney's daughter, and IIRC she's a total wackjob, so who knows what she'd do. It would only take two of these lone Reps in Republican states to do something crazy to cause all sorts of chaos.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 06:41:18 PM
It matters because Trump's strategy is to win the narrative early, so that vote counting can be influenced or at the least legitimacy of Biden undermined. Fox took some wind out of his sails with the AZ call, though clearly not enough.
Right, pretty much what I was trying to say.
Fun factoid I picked up on NPR. Most states have laws that say they will pick up the tab for a recount if the initial margin of victory, typically 0.1% to 0.5%. Otherwise, the person requesting the recount has to pick up the tab. That Green Party dingbat paid 6 million plus for a bunch of recounts in 16.
Just two? Don't you need four? Or do you need a majority and not just a plurality, so any two could have veto power?
Quote from: The Brain on November 04, 2020, 06:39:30 PM
Is Putin expected to give a concession speech soon, if all goes well?
Late count,chaos, pretty near 50/50 split in key systems and massive hate and conspiracy nonsense flying around....
He's probably making a victory speech in private.
So Oregon's drug related measures approved go beyond legalizing shrooms...
QuoteOregon becomes first US state to decriminalise hard drugs
Oregon has become the first US state to decriminalise the possession of hard drugs, including cocaine and heroin.
People caught with small amounts of drugs for personal use will now have to pay a $100 (£77) fine or have a health check at an addiction-recovery centre.
Oregon also becomes the first state to legalise the therapeutic use of hallucinogenic mushrooms.
The new measures were approved by a public vote as part of a nationwide push to relax drug laws.
Elsewhere, voters in Arizona, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota passed a ballot to legalise marijuana.
They join 11 other states, and the District of Columbia, which have already given the green light to the recreational adult use of cannabis - a drug that is still prohibited on a federal level.
Violations of Oregon's current state law against drug possession carry a maximum penalty of a $6,250 fine and up to a year in jail.
But despite the change in policy, people in Oregon who manufacture or distribute hard drugs will still face criminal punishment. Possession of larger quantities could result in misdemeanour charges, rising to felony charges if the quantity is considered large enough to be commercial.
The new law in Oregon, dubbed Measure 110, will take effect from 1 February 2021, and is supported by the Oregon Nurses' Association, the Oregon chapter of the American College of Physicians, and the Oregon Academy of Family Physicians.
Under its terms, funding will be provided for addiction treatment, health assessments and other services for people with addiction issues. The programmes would be financed partly by savings from state prisons, and tax money from the sale of marijuana, which was legalised in 2014.
The Drug Policy Alliance, a New York-based advocacy group, has been a major backer of Measure 110 and spent more than $4m on campaigning. It is supported by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and investor George Soros, who is a member of its board.
Kassandra Frederique, the group's director, told broadcaster OPB that the win was "a huge sledgehammer to the cornerstone of the war on drugs".
"Oregonians understand that we should be treating drug use as a health issue," she added.
Advocates have argued that current legislation has overcrowded prisons with non-violent offenders, and disproportionately affects non-white communities.
But those opposed argue that it would undermine the role of courts in helping people receive drug treatment. Critics have also said it is unclear how juveniles would be penalised, and whether their parents would be notified.
Jim O'Rourke, a leading opponent, told The Oregonian newspaper he was disappointed that "voters have been misled."
"Both sides need to come together with the governor and legislature and give the voters what they really intended - saving lives and more treatment beds," he added.
Countries including Switzerland, Portugal and the Netherlands have already taken similar measures to decriminalise possession of small amounts of hard drugs and invest in "harm reduction programmes", according to the United Nations.
Also...
QuoteThe Drug Policy Alliance, a New York-based advocacy group, has been a major backer of Measure 110 and spent more than $4m on campaigning. It is supported by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and investor George Soros, who is a member of its board.
:ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r:
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 06:44:58 PM
Just two? Don't you need four? Or do you need a majority and not just a plurality, so any two could have veto power?
You need a majority.
The other thing I forgot about this nightmare scenario is that it effectively decouples the President and the VP, and the Senate gets to elect the VP. So if the Dems managed to win the Senate (and I guess they still might) you could have President Trump with Vice President Harris. :lmfao:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 06:46:03 PM
jah
She's nice. :) I met her when I was at Harvard (she came to a forum at the School of Education). I didn't know she did that though. Did she pay for them out of pocket?
Yeah, IIRC she's a pediatrician, so seems like she wouldn't have been able to do that.
I will soonish go to bed again. Will this stuff be done by tomorrow?
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:42:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 06:37:51 PM
Picking a non trump republican would probably best represent the actual election results to be fair.
I hope it doesn't come to that and since it's never happened, it's really hard to predict what might happen. For example, the lone Representative from Wyoming is Dick Cheney's daughter, and IIRC she's a total wackjob, so who knows what she'd do. It would only take two of these lone Reps in Republican states to do something crazy to cause all sorts of chaos.
I think it happened in 1824, and Jackson went nuts that there was a corrupt bargain that kept him from being president, and it was quite destabilizing.
DGuller--my point is that the narrative is overrated at this point. This is about counting votes that have already been cast. Whoever gets the most electoral votes gets to be president. I don't want to sound idealistic or naive, but legal challenges and public bluster almost never amount to anything once an election is over.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:52:51 PM
I think it happened in 1824
Ah, you're right! I never knew that. :blush:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 06:38:21 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 04, 2020, 05:56:57 PM
Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.
Tourists don't vote there. Restaurant workers and hotel cleaning staff are going to lean Democrat. FYI, it's a very unionized town.
Tyr has some really weird views concerning the US. Trump is a part owner a casino in Las Vegas but, as you said, the unions are very strong there.
Quote from: The Brain on November 04, 2020, 06:50:56 PM
I will soonish go to bed again. Will this stuff be done by tomorrow?
I'm starting to wonder if it will be done by the end of the year ...
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:54:29 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:52:51 PM
I think it happened in 1824
Ah, you're right! I never knew that. :blush:
No excuse for that. :( Not only is it required knowledge for every american history nerd, Henry Clay was a central figure and you live in Kentucky! :P
Can Biden still win Alaska? :D
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:33:20 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:30:39 PM
The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.
I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.
There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.
Actually, Gore drew first blood, getting calls before they'd even closed the polls in the panhandle. Then they retracted and Bush ended up ahead once the initial count was done.
Someone must have already mentioned it, but it all comes to Nevada it looks like. And Trump needs a clean sweep of NV, GA, NC, and PA.
woops, and AK.
Nevada slow with their count. They should be good with numbers. Tsk tsk.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:30:39 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 04, 2020, 06:26:37 PM
From Vanity Fair:
QuoteAccording to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood
"According to a source"...
The thing I don't get is why this matters.
Trump.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 07:20:37 PM
Nevada slow with their count. They should be good with numbers. Tsk tsk.
Only when they're being tipped.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 07:13:31 PM
Someone must have already mentioned it, but it all comes to Nevada it looks like. And Trump needs a clean sweep of NV, GA, NC, and PA.
woops, and AK.
He doesn't necessarily.
Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.
At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.
Predictit odds right now:
AK: Trump 98%
NC: Trump 90%
GA: Biden 64%
AZ: Biden 82%
NV: Biden 89%
PA: Biden 80%
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:34:40 PM
He doesn't necessarily.
Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.
At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.
OK, I'm looking at a map (Google's) that has Arizona called.
Georgia is getting super close.
Something is wrong with the way the polls are done. This is the second time in a row that Trump has performed substantially better than expectations. There is a bug in the models.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 07:39:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:34:40 PM
He doesn't necessarily.
Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.
At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.
OK, I'm looking at a map (Google's) that has Arizona called.
AP & Fox have called Arizona for Biden. Everyone else is being a contrarian. Especially AR.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 07:40:08 PM
Georgia is getting super close.
Is it? It still looks like 1% behind with 95% of the vote counted.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:38:11 PM
Predictit odds right now:
AK: Trump 98%
NC: Trump 90%
GA: Biden 64%
AZ: Biden 82%
NV: Biden 89%
PA: Biden 80%
I like those odds
What is the likely hood of Biden winning PA and GA?
Sounds like Biden will have at least 270 soon enough. Philadelphia and possibly Atlanta are doing what they need to do to overcome his deficit in PA and GA.
Theory: Statistics is supernatural and Data Scientists are witches who spread woe.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 04, 2020, 07:42:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 07:39:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 07:34:40 PM
He doesn't necessarily.
Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.
At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.
OK, I'm looking at a map (Google's) that has Arizona called.
AP & Fox have called Arizona for Biden. Everyone else is being a contrarian. Especially AR.
I'm not being contrarian. If we are talking about Trump's paths to win--which are very limited--probably at least half of them go through Arizona. Professional prognosticators like Nate Silver are on this train. If you think AZ is in the bag because two media outlets called it, on predictit the have dollars on sale for $0.82.
There are a lot of outstanding votes in Arizona, Biden's lead is significant but not insurmountable, and there doesn't seem to be a good reason to think the outstanding votes are significantly skewed to Trump, but it isn't guaranteed they aren't either. There just isn't a good track record with this type of election to get a sense of the potential skew of the remaining ballots.
I think AP & Fox called it too soon. It doesn't seem 99.5% probable (which is what I think the standard was supposed to be).
Quote from: Monoriu on November 04, 2020, 07:42:24 PM
Something is wrong with the way the polls are done. This is the second time in a row that Trump has performed substantially better than expectations. There is a bug in the models.
Some statistical problems may simply be unsolvable, you just have to mix some judgment in and hope for the best. The people who agree to speak to pollsters are a self-selected bunch, and selection bias is deadly and often unavoidable.
When you deal with a possibly biased sample, you have to try to figure out how to reweight it to make it representative, but it's hard to do and requires judgment, which can be biased itself. I don't think the poll miss this year is a bug by pollsters, it's just a reminder that statistics has intractable limitations.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 07:44:54 PM
What is the likely hood of Biden winning PA and GA?
Biden is likely to win at least one.
Hoods are more a Trumpy thing.
Regarding the called status of Arizona.
Arizona initially fucked up and said they had like 96% of precincts in rather than 87%. Some groups called Arizona.
Then today Arizona said that they had 400,000 uncounted late arriving early votes in one county. Then later in the day they said more than 600,000 in multiple counties.
I don't know what the decision matrix is to reverse a call, but it may be they said, "well we thought it was 99.5% likely Biden would win, now we think it is 92% based on corrected, we aren't going to make a highly public reversal when it is still highly likely Biden will win. We will revisit if the race begins to tighten." Trump screams about everything, but I can see why he would scream about this: I bet Biden would too. The screaming is also irrelevant--the votes are going to get counted and what falls out is where we land.
I can see everyone's point of view and none of them are unreasonable here, but ultimately I don't think any of it matters. Arizona remains one of Trump's best hopes for getting re elected - which is highly unlikely.
Betting odds now have Trumpy AZ more likely than PA--19% for AZ and 16% for PA.
I think they're going to have to retract the Arizona call, I don't think it's defensible now to keep it. Fuck, AZ going Trump is really not the surprise we need this late in the game.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 06:35:21 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 04, 2020, 06:28:59 PM
Quote from: Josephus on November 04, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
What would happen if that's the case? Or rather--what is supposed to happen?
It's kind of fucked up. The House of Representatives votes to decide the election, but each state delegation gets one vote. Yes, that means Wyoming has as much power in that vote as California does. I guess the delegates get together and vote, and then whomever wins that vote puts one vote in the hat for Trump or Biden.
I think Republicans will have ~27 delegations so that means they would ostensibly win. But they have no obligation to chose Trump or Biden. The one rep from Wyoming and one rep from Alaska could decide that someone better than Trump exists, and insist on electing Paul Ryan or something.
They have to pick from among the three candidates getting the most EV for President.
Quote from: grumbler on November 04, 2020, 10:12:23 PM
They have to pick from among the three candidates getting the most EV for President.
How do you break the tie for third?
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 09:18:25 PM
I think they're going to have to retract the Arizona call, I don't think it's defensible now to keep it. Fuck, AZ going Trump is really not the surprise we need this late in the game.
Nate Silver seems to be pessimistic on Arizona...I'm interpreting his comments as he would rate it a weak lean to Biden. He seems significantly more optimistic on Pennsylvania, and Trump needs both.
And of course also Georgia unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat in Nevada.
Yep I'm still going back to Nate Silver. Anyone who has volunteered at a women's shelter would understand.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 10:16:51 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 09:18:25 PM
I think they're going to have to retract the Arizona call, I don't think it's defensible now to keep it. Fuck, AZ going Trump is really not the surprise we need this late in the game.
Nate Silver seems to be pessimistic on Arizona...I'm interpreting his comments as he would rate it a weak lean to Biden. He seems significantly more optimistic on Pennsylvania, and Trump needs both.
And of course also Georgia unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat in Nevada.
Yep I'm still going back to Nate Silver. Anyone who has volunteered at a women's shelter would understand.
:pinch:
I'm becoming pessimistic on AZ too. The first batch of long-awaited votes was for Trump at the margin he needed. I'm also unclear about other county's votes, because it seems like Maricopa is the best case for Biden. I'm struggling to see how it's anything but very close. I think the Fox stats guy and the AP are now torching their credibility with every minute that goes buy where the "called" state is the most uncertain of the ones remaining.
But really at this point, Arizona seems like a curiosity.
Biden is moving toward closing things out in PA and Georgia.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 10:36:49 PM
But really at this point, Arizona seems like a curiosity.
Biden is moving toward closing things out in PA and Georgia.
I want to be triple sure, literally, that's the only way to be sure.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:24:06 PM
I think the Fox stats guy and the AP are now torching their credibility with every minute that goes buy where the "called" state is the most uncertain of the ones remaining.
Presumably, they called it when they were told 96% of the vote was counted. If I see a large advance on Biden that can't be gapped with 99.5% of the 4% remaining votes, I'd be calling it to. However, it seems Arizona fucked up in reporting the results, since it was 82-84% of the vote counted instead of 96% and that makes a huge difference, unknown to Fox and the AP who called it.
If they called it for Biden at 82% of the vote in, and knowning such, then they were obviously wrong.
Are there automatic recounts in States where the margins are razor thin?
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 10:47:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:24:06 PM
I think the Fox stats guy and the AP are now torching their credibility with every minute that goes buy where the "called" state is the most uncertain of the ones remaining.
Presumably, they called it when they were told 96% of the vote was counted. If I see a large advance on Biden that can't be gapped with 99.5% of the 4% remaining votes, I'd be calling it to. However, it seems Arizona fucked up in reporting the results, since it was 82-84% of the vote counted instead of 96% and that makes a huge difference, unknown to Fox and the AP who called it.
If they called it for Biden at 82% of the vote in, and knowning such, then they were obviously wrong.
It's understandable why they called it originally. However, they really fucked up when they failed to retract after the data was fixed, and now they've just dug themselves into a hole. They're now all-in on their bad judgment to not retract, it seems, and they're just praying now, as we all are, that AZ will go Biden's way regardless. They're hoping that if it goes Biden's way in the end, then it'll be "no harm, no foul" freeroll that everyone will forget.
I'm running the numbers in Georgia. Trump is up about 31k votes.
About 90k votes are uncounted. Of those,
32k are from Fulton County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 72-26.
16k are from Chatham County (savannah), that went for Biden 58-41.
7k are from Clayton County (gone with the wind location outside atlanta), that went for Biden 85-14.
5k are from DeKalb County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 83-16.
Those are the largest by ballots uncounted. The rest are suburban and rural counties. They are early votes, so could skew democratic.
Biden needs to win the uncounted ballots about 2-1. It looks doable but not a slam dunk.
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 10:49:16 PM
Are there automatic recounts in States where the margins are razor thin?
Yes and no and sort of. It is different in every state.
I think maybe the Fox/AP guys were under the impression that these late VBM ballots in AZ were more Biden-leaning than they actually are. As it looks now it's definitely a toss-up.
They're probably hoping PA gets called late tonight. :lol:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 04, 2020, 11:00:35 PM
I think maybe the Fox/AP guys were under the impression that these late VBM ballots in AZ were more Biden-leaning than they actually are. As it looks now it's definitely a toss-up.
They're probably hoping PA gets called late tonight. :lol:
And definitely hoping that GA doesn't get called before PA, so that they don't have to explain why Biden having 280 EV is too close to call.
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:53:47 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 04, 2020, 10:47:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 10:24:06 PM
I think the Fox stats guy and the AP are now torching their credibility with every minute that goes buy where the "called" state is the most uncertain of the ones remaining.
Presumably, they called it when they were told 96% of the vote was counted. If I see a large advance on Biden that can't be gapped with 99.5% of the 4% remaining votes, I'd be calling it to. However, it seems Arizona fucked up in reporting the results, since it was 82-84% of the vote counted instead of 96% and that makes a huge difference, unknown to Fox and the AP who called it.
If they called it for Biden at 82% of the vote in, and knowning such, then they were obviously wrong.
It's understandable why they called it originally. However, they really fucked up when they failed to retract after the data was fixed, and now they've just dug themselves into a hole. They're now all-in on their bad judgment to not retract, it seems, and they're just praying now, as we all are, that AZ will go Biden's way regardless. They're hoping that if it goes Biden's way in the end, then it'll be "no harm, no foul" freeroll that everyone will forget.
Ah, I missed the part where they just dug themselves. I'm only watching WP's site, not tv.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 04, 2020, 10:54:09 PM
I'm running the numbers in Georgia. Trump is up about 31k votes.
About 90k votes are uncounted. Of those,
32k are from Fulton County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 72-26.
16k are from Chatham County (savannah), that went for Biden 58-41.
7k are from Clayton County (gone with the wind location outside atlanta), that went for Biden 85-14.
5k are from DeKalb County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 83-16.
Those are the largest by ballots uncounted. The rest are suburban and rural counties. They are early votes, so could skew democratic.
Biden needs to win the uncounted ballots about 2-1. It looks doable but not a slam dunk.
Ooooh. That's bad. So close.
My guess is Georgia finishes up as close 10,000, and we won't know until basically the end of counting on which side.
Arizona I think is actually a Biden hold. McCain's big pollster in Arizona basically is saying "yes Trump can pull it out here, but you'd rather be Joe Biden in this scenario." His reasons were that something like 40k of the votes remaining are from Pima County, which is a genuine blue county, and while Trump did hit exactly the margin (no more no less) he needed in the last dump, we don't know where in Maricopa county these votes are coming from. Maricopa is geographically and population quite huge, with areas that are strong red and areas that are strong blue. It's a true unknown, it could be the next few batches are real bad for Biden and then he needs even bigger vote share from subsequent batches and doesn't get it. Or it could be the last batch was Trump's low batch and he crushes the remainder and wins a narrow victory in the state.
Nevada it sounds like the data analysts are much more bullish on Biden, the margin there is scary tight, but it appears basically all the remaining votes in NV are mail in votes from Washoe and Clark county, these are blue counties in like every election, and in Nevada the partisan shift between in person election day votes vs mail is quite large, so there's no reason to expect Trump closes that margin at all and a lot of reasons to expect Biden quite meaningfully widens it.
PA is worth looking at their counting website: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
As of 11:25pm ET: Biden is down about 165,000 votes, 763,000 mail in votes remain. Virtually no in person votes remain ( a few small precincts in a few small counties that likely had counting issues.) The partisan tilt of mail in ballots thus far has been in the +40 to +50 range for Biden in PA. Philadelphia has not updated its count since like 4pm ET or so, and in that time Biden has continued to cut down the lead--because even mail votes from red counties are more blue than red, like there are counties Trump will probably win 75/25, where he's up 80/20, because we haven't counted the blue ballots there. So Biden is building margin basically statewide with every set of mail ballots counted, and he's down to 165k behind with several very very strong Biden counties with huge population not even giving us a ton of new vote in the last 6-7 hours.
I would say in PA you almost need a "data problem" to save Trump. With the data we have I don't see how he wins the state. But maybe in some nightmare scenario they come out tomorrow and are like "ohh, yeah it's not 760,000 mail ballots left, it's only 120,000" RIP. That probably won't happen, but I bet fear of just that scenario is why people are still being cautious around PA with Trump still up over 100,000 votes. When or if Biden gets that down to even a slight lead, I'll expect a big narrative shift everywhere, but that likely comes like noonish or 3pmish tomorrow.
Based on the numbers AR cited Georgia could be closer then 10K, maybe in the 0-5,000 range.
if Biden wins 70% of the ballots on average in the 4 counties where he leads it cuts the lead to 3000. At 80% Biden goes up 5000.
Then you'd have to see how the other 30K ballots split.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/10Fqq02NlCVeDu/giphy.gif)
To get more specific on PA, if the 763,000 remaining follow existing trends, Biden will net 595,000 or so votes from the remaining mail ballots. Trump will net 167,860.
You end up with something looking like:
Trump: 3,385,000
Biden: 3,646,000
Pretty substantial margin.
So we have this criminal county sheriff who is presently indicted for felony evidence tampering after he destroyed a video to cover up the murder of Javier Ambler last year by his deputies. Fortunately, despite the asshole spending shitloads of money to stay in office he lost by 12 points. The new Sheriff will be the first Democrat to hold a county wide office in this county in 25 years. We will see if he can hold it.
But that was an election we just had to win. The guy should be in prison but for now just having him out of office is a good start.
Quote. Georgia
According to CNN:
-Approx. 99,000 votes to go.
-Biden needs around 55% of those.
-Biden's average for the votes that have been coming in tonight is around 70%.
Whether it is 90K or 99K seems to matter a lot. Crazy.
But either way I think it should be enough to get that double Senate runoff.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 12:21:01 AM
Whether it is 90K or 99K seems to matter a lot. Crazy.
But either way I think it should be enough to get that double Senate runoff.
That would be awesome, even though it's just setting me up for crushing disappointment in Jan.
Quote from: Valmy on November 04, 2020, 11:57:29 PM
So we have this criminal county sheriff who is presently indicted for felony evidence tampering after he destroyed a video to cover up the murder of Javier Ambler last year by his deputies. Fortunately, despite the asshole spending shitloads of money to stay in office he lost by 12 points. The new Sheriff will be the first Democrat to hold a county wide office in this county in 25 years. We will see if he can hold it.
But that was an election we just had to win. The guy should be in prison but for now just having him out of office is a good start.
I saw a story on Twitter where some sheriff had fired a deputy for being an out lesbian. She was elected in his stead now. :)
https://www.insider.com/sheriff-fired-lesbian-deputy-shes-been-elected-to-replace-him-2020-11
But damn georgia , you go....
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:10:07 PM
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
I think I saw something about the spoilage being normal - but that may have just been for one state.
Also apparently political scientists who've looked into various polling failures haven't found evidence of "shy" voters. But lots of evidence of unrepresentative samples and weighting errors.
QuoteI don't think you guys should assume that everyone voting for Trump is in love with him or anything.
A lot of people in 2016 voted for Trump, not because they liked him, but because they despised Hillary and viewed her as an existential threat to the republic.
I don't know if a lot of people voting for Trump in 2020 are mainly voting against Biden, but it seems possible too.
I think there are fewer people who really hate Biden in that way though. But also isn't there a difference between taking a chance on Trump in 2016 and voting for him after the last four years?
And he has kept and expanded his base. I think Trumpism has consequences for the GOP (I posted a really good New Yorker piece on this - I don't know which side wins). But I think it may be it's own thing almost semi divorced from the GOP. So I saw one possibility that strikes me as plausible, Trumpism becomes a bit like an American Peronism: highly mobilising, highly polarising, not always in power, but always there (possibly always there as an option for the GOP). I think that is partly an inherent risk in a Presidential system. A President and their electorate have a relationship, it's always zero-sum/referendumy and there's always a risk if the President starts conflating their electorate with "the people" which is, I think, what Trump has done since day one.
Quote
What is the likely hood of Biden winning PA and GA?
Pennsylvania looks very good the mail ballots so far are still breaking about 75-80/25-20 in Biden's favour which will be enough to win - I think if it keeps up, given the number of votes, it would end up with Biden winning by about 2% (same as Michigan). Georgia looks very close and probably will get a recount.
Edit: It is insane to me that how many problems are being caused and probably millions of people will believe the election is actually being stolen or fraudulent, all because of one man's chronic insecurities :bleeding: :(
As of right now, Biden has 3.4 million more votes than Trump. Knowing that is likely to grow to over 4 million makes me happier.
Yeah, but take out California and it's even.
Quote from: Threviel on November 05, 2020, 01:57:03 AM
Yeah, but take out California and it's even.
Well let me know when you take out California.
WTH how long is this going to take?
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 02:11:50 AM
WTH how long is this going to take?
Sounds like Maricopa will take forever.
tldnw: reporter says they have 450k to count, doing 6-8k an hour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK8yShONfJ
woops forgotted link
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 02:11:50 AM
WTH how long is this going to take?
we should hope to know Nevada at Noon eastern time tomorrow. No idea Georgia, PA or Arizona
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/liberal-election-fantasy-loses-trumpism-wins/2020/11/04/ca79be4c-1e91-11eb-90dd-abd0f7086a91_story.html
QuoteThe fantasy of repudiating Trumpism is dead
So you were hoping for a "repudiation." A resounding rejection of Trump and Trumpism.
Election officials and news outlets had spent the better part of the month warning us that this would be an election week, not an election day, and still in some liberal circles there was a jacked-up fantasy that nobody would have to wait for Pennsylvania's tortured ballot count because by 10 p.m. Joe Biden would turn Florida and North Carolina blue — and maybe Texas, why not?
Sorry. As John King or Steve Kornacki spent the night informing viewers from their respective magic walls, President Trump over-performed in myriad polling measures. There would be no landslides, only squeakers and clenched jaws — and, possibly, court fights.
Win or lose, Trumpism will not have been swept into the dustbin of history; it will remain all over the furniture. It's part of the furniture. Unsweepable.
Anecdote isn't evidence, but I'll note that for the past two years, the demographics in my inbox who most fervently believed in a 2020 blue landslide were White liberal men and occasionally White liberal women. Surely, they insisted, what had happened in 2016 was a blip. Hillary Clinton had been uniquely flawed, the country uniquely complacent, Donald Trump uniquely novel. The results didn't really reflect America. Black women would save the party; Black women would save us all.
The Black women who wrote to me, meanwhile, were exhausted and often worried. To them, 2016 didn't feel like a blip. It felt like the America they'd already been living in for decades was finally made visible to the rest of the country. Yes, it had always been racist. Yes, it had always been sexist. Yes, yes, yes.
If you, like Biden, have had the recurring privilege of sadly shaking your head and saying, "This isn't who we are," what you really meant was, "This isn't who I've ever had to see us be." What you really meant was, "This isn't my America. . . . Crap, is it yours?"
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court was reshaped, and conspiracy theories multiplied, and 230,000 Americans died in a pandemic, and children were in cages, and however the race ends up, as of mid-Wednesday morning Trump had amassed 3 million more votes nationwide than he did in 2016: According to exit polls, he performed worse among White men, but slightly better among voters of color (Biden, at the same time Wednesday, was ahead in the popular vote by more than 2 million). On Tuesday a Georgia congressional seat was won by a QAnon believer, and a North Carolina seat was won by a 25-year-old Republican who used the dawning moments of his career as a U.S. representative to tweet out, "Cry more, lib."
The bad parts of America are not blips, they're characteristics. For every stone monument to democracy, an enslaved person forced to build a monument to democracy. For every "All men are created equal," a reminder that it really did only mean men, and only some of them. For every barrier-breaker like Sarah McBride, the newly elected transgender Delaware state senator, who openheartedly tweeted, "Thank you, thank you, thank you," there is a "cry more, lib." Do you know how hard it is to love this place sometimes?
Maybe the closeness of this election will make us revisit Hillary Clinton: It wasn't so much that she was flawed as that we were. Older White male candidates don't guarantee a tidal wave, either.
Still, votes are being counted.
Wisconsin was red for most of the night, and then Milwaukee and the mail-ins arrived, and around 4 or 5 in the morning, Biden pulled tenuously ahead. By 9 a.m. CNN's chryon read, "Biden takes lead in tight Michigan race," and a Detroit election official tersely told Chris Cuomo that more results could have come in while she was waiting on air to talk to him.
Pennsylvania isn't guaranteeing anything until Friday, officials have said, and chances are decent that it will come down to Pennsylvania again. Georgia isn't out of the game for Democrats, either — its mail-in ballots are still trickling in.
Biden might not lose. But some of the pillars of Americana he ran on — decency, truthfulness (or at least accountability for lying your tail off), a prevailing respect for science and history — may emerge all the shakier.
You can't effectively repudiate a worldview that nearly half the country believes in. Or at least, is willing to vote for.
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 02:11:50 AM
WTH how long is this going to take?
Christ, the wait is killing me :lol:
O say can you see, by the dawn's early light,
the votes we still counted at the twilight's last gleaming,
Whose broad chads and bright crayons through the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we count'd, with Nate Silver gallantly streaming?
Despite the map's red glare, or Trump bursting in hot air,
We had hope through the night that the votes were still there;
O say do we still for election results have to wait
On the land of the free and the home of the brave?
I mean even the most optimistic predictions of a humiliating Trumpist route still had 45% or so of the country voting for him.
Washington Post shows Trump with 68,052,419 votes so far. That's more than any other winning president, except Obama in 2008 (69,498,516).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 02:30:40 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 02:11:50 AM
WTH how long is this going to take?
Christ, the wait is killing me :lol:
How Nevada counts: https://twitter.com/ej11lizzie/status/1324218622751830019?s=20
Why would you take out 15% of the country out of your calculations? :wacko:
Following my mostly-correct electoral college prediction in the prediction thread, I confidently make the following prediction about the SCOTUS:
Thomas steps down next week and is replaced by a 45 year old Trump nominee. Breyer dies in 2021 and McConnell refuses to hold nomination hearings. The next Republican packs the Court anyway.
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on November 05, 2020, 02:49:26 AM
Following my mostly-correct electoral college prediction in the prediction thread, I confidently make the following prediction about the SCOTUS:
Thomas steps down next week and is replaced by a 45 year old Trump nominee. Breyer dies in 2021 and McConnell refuses to hold nomination hearings. The next Republican packs the Court anyway.
Why not every single Republican Judge in the entire judiciary step down and get replaced by 20 year olds or pack the court now? Just have 2,000 20 year old Supreme Court justices. Trump will make it happen tomorrow.
Anyway you predicted a Republican victory. I don't see how you have been proven correct or even mostly correct :P Though I hope you are right about the Pennsylvania thing.
The fact most analysts seem pretty confident about Biden turning PA is the only thing that keeps me from flipping out given the thin margins elsewhere.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 02:55:42 AM
The fact most analysts seem pretty confident about Biden turning PA is the only thing that keeps me from flipping out given the thin margins elsewhere.
Relax. Nothing is happening very fast anyway. Plenty of time to flip out later.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 02:55:42 AM
The fact most analysts seem pretty confident about Biden turning PA is the only thing that keeps me from flipping out given the thin margins elsewhere.
I've kinda accepted now that US internal politics will be a highly polarized mess for some time to come. I'm not sure what would be required to overcome that, but I'd expect it will either be a long, gradual process, or a very sudden, ugly one.
It wouldn't be enough to turn me fully Republican. But every four years I watch American news channels - and I kind of hate the media after just a few minutes :ph34r:
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 03:04:45 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 02:55:42 AM
The fact most analysts seem pretty confident about Biden turning PA is the only thing that keeps me from flipping out given the thin margins elsewhere.
I've kinda accepted now that US internal politics will be a highly polarized mess for some time to come. I'm not sure what would be required to overcome that, but I'd expect it will either be a long, gradual process, or a very sudden, ugly one.
I say we all unite against the common enemy.
Um...hrm....China I guess.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 03:05:49 AM
It wouldn't be enough to turn me fully Republican. But every four years I watch American news channels - and I kind of hate the media after just a few minutes :ph34r:
The news channels are garbage and have always been. I hate all of them. They are so insufferable.
Not sure what that has to do with being a Republican. They have their own equally shitty ones.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 02:37:25 AM
Why would you take out 15% of the country out of your calculations? :wacko:
For dishonest reasons.
Quote from: garbon on November 05, 2020, 03:08:12 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 02:37:25 AM
Why would you take out 15% of the country out of your calculations? :wacko:
For dishonest reasons.
Are you talking about me and California? I phrased myself badly, as usual. I was sitting around and thinking that the entire popular vote difference can be explained by California. Horribly enough it actually seems quite even in the rest of the US.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 03:07:36 AM
The news channels are garbage and have always been. I hate all of them. They are so insufferable.
Not sure what that has to do with being a Republican. They have their own equally shitty ones.
Yeah but Fox has better production. And (for a foreigner) far better/funnier adverts.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 02:55:42 AM
The fact most analysts seem pretty confident about Biden turning PA is the only thing that keeps me from flipping out given the thin margins elsewhere.
I'm pretty much done worrying. Arizona is either in the bag or almost there. Then Nevada makes 270. Either or both of Georgia and Pennsylvania would be gravy and get us closer to the blow out category.
I'm bummed Trump and Joni Ernst won in Iowa and I'm bummed we didn't flip the Senate, but I'm as sure as Joe Biden sounds that we'll win the White House.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 03:30:21 AM
I'm pretty much done worrying. Arizona is either in the bag or almost there.
I can still worry when they put this on NYT: Jennifer Medina, in Phoenix 30m ago
In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially win Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.
Quote from: Threviel on November 05, 2020, 03:11:23 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 05, 2020, 03:08:12 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 02:37:25 AM
Why would you take out 15% of the country out of your calculations? :wacko:
For dishonest reasons.
Are you talking about me and California? I phrased myself badly, as usual. I was sitting around and thinking that the entire popular vote difference can be explained by California. Horribly enough it actually seems quite even in the rest of the US.
Surely you could also just grab a whole collection of different states to say something similar right for your 2nd sentence? I'm also not sure your third sentence seems accurate.
Here's a list in descending order of Biden states and the gap. I've listed just those with 10% or higher gap (as shown in bold font).
Vermont 66-31
+35California 65-32
+33Massachusetts 66-33
+33Hawaii 64-34
+30Maryland 63-36
+27Washington 60-38
+22Rhode Island 59-39
+20Delaware 59-40
+19Oregon 58-40
+18Conneticut 57-41
+16NY 55-43
+12Colorado 55-42
+13Illinois 55-43
+12New Mexico 54-43
+11
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/719120818998607880/773807498721099776/FB_IMG_1604560425627.jpg)
:P
Looks like arizona may not flip afterall?
Though encouraging signs from PA.
Apparently Trump is starting to see it slip away from him and "feeling down" - although apparently he is starting to talk with friends and contacts on a 2024 run :lol: :ph34r: :bleeding:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:43:54 AM
Apparently Trump is starting to see it slip away from him and "feeling down" - although apparently he is starting to talk with friends and contacts on a 2024 run :lol: :ph34r: :bleeding:
Oh yes please.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:43:54 AM
Apparently Trump is starting to see it slip away from him and "feeling down" - although apparently he is starting to talk with friends and contacts on a 2024 run :lol: :ph34r: :bleeding:
Is it too much to hope that when the final results are certified that he'll have a Valentinian I moment?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentinian_I#Death
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmBms7uVoAEqHqe?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aBmMDvO_700bwp.webp)
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 04:53:11 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmBms7uVoAEqHqe?format=jpg&name=medium)
:lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:43:54 AM
Apparently Trump is starting to see it slip away from him and "feeling down" - although apparently he is starting to talk with friends and contacts on a 2024 run :lol: :ph34r: :bleeding:
Is he going to be alive and non-demented in 2024?
Quote from: Solmyr on November 05, 2020, 04:57:06 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:43:54 AM
Apparently Trump is starting to see it slip away from him and "feeling down" - although apparently he is starting to talk with friends and contacts on a 2024 run :lol: :ph34r: :bleeding:
Is he going to be alive and non-demented in 2024?
It won't matter either to him or his fans.
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/773505316691247124/773816995619012608/123679737_1678504802310779_7263718075218171256_n.png)
I'm predicting/hoping for some bodies under the white house lawn being discovered by the Biden administration that make trump a less then viable 2024 candidate (who runs anyway and loses)
I really wonder if evertything holds up - I don't know how he'll deal with loss.
And I don't think he's an idiot (unlike his kids) - so he knows he's bullshitting when he says this election is stolen, just like he knew he was bullshitting about the inauguration crowd size and the 3.5 million illegal Hilary voters that gave her the popular vote. He'll bluster and bullshit - but he'll know he lost and he's been rejected and the entire world is watching it happen over days and weeks. I really don't know how he'll respond to that.
Also this is the perfect result for McConnell and the establishment GOP: Trump lost, they kept the Senate and they've got 6-3 on the Supreme Court. It was all worth it.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 04:53:11 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmBms7uVoAEqHqe?format=jpg&name=medium)
:lol:
So, Georgia seems to be the state closest to be called at this moment, with only around 100k votes remaining to be counted. Trump's advantage is 22,567 votes, so if the ones remaining are from such overwhelmingly Biden-voting areas as reported it is feasible that it could go to Biden.
Next one could be North Carolina, with around 350k votes remaining to be counted, and Trump's advantage there is 76,701 votes. No idea how the split could be there in the remaining votes, as I can't see from which counties they are from.
Quote from: garbon on November 05, 2020, 03:49:46 AM
Quote from: Threviel on November 05, 2020, 03:11:23 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 05, 2020, 03:08:12 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 02:37:25 AM
Why would you take out 15% of the country out of your calculations? :wacko:
For dishonest reasons.
Are you talking about me and California? I phrased myself badly, as usual. I was sitting around and thinking that the entire popular vote difference can be explained by California. Horribly enough it actually seems quite even in the rest of the US.
Surely you could also just grab a whole collection of different states to say something similar right for your 2nd sentence? I'm also not sure your third sentence seems accurate.
Here's a list in descending order of Biden states and the gap. I've listed just those with 10% or higher gap (as shown in bold font).
Vermont 66-31 +35
California 65-32 +33
Massachusetts 66-33 +33
Hawaii 64-34 +30
Maryland 63-36 +27
Washington 60-38 +22
Rhode Island 59-39 +20
Delaware 59-40 +19
Oregon 58-40 +18
Conneticut 57-41 +16
NY 55-43 +12
Colorado 55-42 +13
Illinois 55-43 +12
New Mexico 54-43 +11
Popular vote advantage right now for the entire US, from CNN: 3 557 975
Popular vote advantage right now for California, from CNN: 3 912 732
It seems quite even for the US outside of California. That it is possible that other combinations of states has the same effect is neither here nor there.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El8Gg9gXEAMmFEI?format=jpg&name=small)
Dear Americans,
This is what an election count looks like in a mature democracy (nicked from Twitter)
Quote from: Threviel on November 05, 2020, 05:26:40 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 05, 2020, 03:49:46 AM
Surely you could also just grab a whole collection of different states to say something similar right for your 2nd sentence? I'm also not sure your third sentence seems accurate.
Here's a list in descending order of Biden states and the gap. I've listed just those with 10% or higher gap (as shown in bold font).
Vermont 66-31 +35
California 65-32 +33
Massachusetts 66-33 +33
Hawaii 64-34 +30
Maryland 63-36 +27
Washington 60-38 +22
Rhode Island 59-39 +20
Delaware 59-40 +19
Oregon 58-40 +18
Conneticut 57-41 +16
NY 55-43 +12
Colorado 55-42 +13
Illinois 55-43 +12
New Mexico 54-43 +11
Popular vote advantage right now for the entire US, from CNN: 3 557 975
Popular vote advantage right now for California, from CNN: 3 912 732
It seems quite even for the US outside of California. That it is possible that other combinations of states has the same effect is neither here nor there.
Sure its neither here nor there if you want to build a misleading narrative. As I demonstrated with my figures there are many states that are clearly not 'even'.
I had no plans to build a narrative, I just pointed a not-so-interesting thing out.
Quote from: Threviel on November 05, 2020, 06:22:21 AM
I had no plans to build a narrative, I just pointed a not-so-interesting thing out.
Okay. Yeah, I'm not sure why it would be interesting to note that removing the most populous Democratic state from the results can change the aggregate results. :P
I think if the popular vote advantage is coming from a single state, then it is a valid point to highlight, because otherwise "but we won the popular vote" could hide the fact that the country is very much divided between a reasonable centrist politician, and a rambling demented former reality TV star.
If we're in the time for making observations, I noticed a couple of funny things going state by state, and it's that some of them can easily be labelled as one party states, given that either Dems or Reps won in every single county. For instance, Hawaii, Massachussets and Rhode Island are 100% Dem states, while West Virginia and Oklahoma are 100% Rep.
A few more states are almost entirely monochromatic as well except for very few counties (New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticutt and Delaware on the Dem side, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota and Idaho on the Rep one).
I'm wondering how much of that might be because of people tending to move to areas with politics they agree with. Anecdotally, my sisters would e.g. never move to the West Coast because the area on the whole is too liberal.
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 06:44:40 AM
I'm wondering how much of that might be because of people tending to move to areas with politics they agree with. Anecdotally, my sisters would e.g. never move to the West Coast because the area on the whole is too liberal.
I think that's mostly prejudice rather than fact. Depending on the particular area, even in West Coast states there are sizeable areas (even if sparsely populated ones) that vote Republican, for instance Northern California or the interior of Oregon and Washington. Then again maybe even a West Coast Republican sounds like a Marxist if you're far enough to the right.
On the other hand, even in very "red" states you can find places that vote mostly Dem in urban counties (normally the one or two "blue" counties in some of the almost entirely "red" states), like Louisville and Lexington in Kentucky, or Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee
I wonder how much a Covid migration would change things. I imagine that most of it is from deep blue states to red or purple states.
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 06:35:09 AM
I think if the popular vote advantage is coming from a single state, then it is a valid point to highlight, because otherwise "but we won the popular vote" could hide the fact that the country is very much divided between a reasonable centrist politician, and a rambling demented former reality TV star.
But that's obvious from the fact that so many people will have voted for both candidates. Who is under an illusion that the country isn't divided? Highlighting California specifically and noting it has a large impact on popular vote totals should be obvious given size of its populace and also covers over other states where voters roundly rejected Trump.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 06:49:06 AM
Then again maybe even a West Coast Republican sounds like a Marxist if you're far enough to the right.
Yeah, the GOP in places like CA or the North-East is way more moderate than what you find elsewhere. At least that was the case when I lived there. I presume that the same happens with Dems in places like Alabama.
I mean, even in New York state most of the counties actually vote Republican, including most of Upstate and even parts of Long Island and NY itself (Staten Island, basically). Out of 62 counties in the whole state "only" 13 had Dem majorities (a handful of places Upstate like the counties where Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Ithaca are located, some counties in the Hudson Valley and most of NY itself.
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 06:44:40 AM
I'm wondering how much of that might be because of people tending to move to areas with politics they agree with. Anecdotally, my sisters would e.g. never move to the West Coast because the area on the whole is too liberal.
Less politics itself surely (though perhaps to an extent) and more the associated key factor of education?
If you're an educated person from Wyoming then chances are you won't be staying in your hometown, you'll be heading to a big city for work.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 06:49:06 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 06:44:40 AM
I'm wondering how much of that might be because of people tending to move to areas with politics they agree with. Anecdotally, my sisters would e.g. never move to the West Coast because the area on the whole is too liberal.
I think that's mostly prejudice rather than fact. Depending on the particular area, even in West Coast states there are sizeable areas (even if sparsely populated ones) that vote Republican, for instance Northern California or the interior of Oregon and Washington. Then again maybe even a West Coast Republican sounds like a Marxist if you're far enough to the right.
On the other hand, even in very "red" states you can find places that vote mostly Dem in urban counties (normally the one or two "blue" counties in some of the almost entirely "red" states), like Louisville and Lexington in Kentucky, or Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee
I assure you that the Republicans out here are far and away more extreme right than I remember them being in Illinois. They're certainly more in our face about their rhetoric.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 06:56:10 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 06:49:06 AM
Then again maybe even a West Coast Republican sounds like a Marxist if you're far enough to the right.
Yeah, the GOP in places like CA or the North-East is way more moderate than what you find elsewhere. At least that was the case when I lived there. I presume that the same happens with Dems in places like Alabama.
Not my experience in Oregon. May also just be that everyone is more extreme now than even 10-12 years ago.
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 07:22:26 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 06:56:10 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 06:49:06 AM
Then again maybe even a West Coast Republican sounds like a Marxist if you're far enough to the right.
Yeah, the GOP in places like CA or the North-East is way more moderate than what you find elsewhere. At least that was the case when I lived there. I presume that the same happens with Dems in places like Alabama.
Not my experience in Oregon. May also just be that everyone is more extreme now than even 10-12 years ago.
Yeah, I guess that one of the effects of Trump (and the Tea Partiers that paved the way for him) is that he has basically bulldozed the traditional "families" within the Republican party and nowadays his brand of in-your-face loud mouthness is the default GOP position for new politicians, as many of the younger and new candidates that have appeared lately. How the Republicans move for a post-Trump stage will be interesting to see. Will they stay in the grips of Trumpism or will that be slowly discarded and they'll be back to a more traditional mould?
I feel like California Republicans are also infamously crazy - and I think something similar's happened with the Virginia party since they lost power.
I think there's definitely something about ideological sorting geographically, but also the nationalisation of politics which is quite new.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 07:33:33 AM
I feel like California Republicans are also infamously crazy - and I think something similar's happened with the Virginia party since they lost power.
I think there's definitely something about ideological sorting geographically, but also the nationalisation of politics which is quite new.
Well, right now the most prominent California Republican might be Devin Nunes, so that doesn't really speak highly of them at the moment. :lol:
In contrast there are plenty of prominent California Democrats at the moment, with Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi in the forefront.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:59:47 AM
Also this is the perfect result for McConnell and the establishment GOP: Trump lost, they kept the Senate and they've got 6-3 on the Supreme Court. It was all worth it.
Yeah, that's what hurts most. The damage is permanent.
The number that gives me heartburn is the 70% reported number in Philadelphia. So much seems to hinge on that number. It seems a strangely low number by this stage, what if it's an error? :x
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 07:44:28 AM
The number that gives me heartburn is the 70% reported number in Philadelphia. So much seems to hinge on that number. It seems a strangely low number by this stage, what if it's an error? :x
NYT has it at 89%.
If it helps - I find this dashboard pretty impressive which makes me think that, despite the (lack of) speed, they're on top of counting and reporting etc:
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/trumps-legal-filings-are-trash-and-read-like-an-elementary-school-student-wrote-it-msnbcs-legal-experts/
QuoteTrump's legal filings are 'trash' and read 'like an elementary school student' wrote it: MSNBC's legal experts
MSNBC hosts Nicolle Wallace and Rachel Maddow are hearings from legal analysts that President Donald Trump's campaign's filings are "trash" and poorly written.
"I'll add this about the recounts," Wallace began, "I just hung up with a Trump adviser who says that these legal efforts do not really have the imprimatur of the late Warren Christopher and the James Baker sort of statesmen arriving on the ground in Florida the morning after the election there. That these do not seem like the kinds of legal fights that are attracting talent beyond people with the last name Trump and one Rudy Giuliani, who showed up in the state of Pennsylvania. So, just a little bit of evidence about the view even from inside Trump's side about the caliber of legal talent and legal arguments being made in lawsuits that were described to me as very much driven by the client himself without a lot of basis in any sort of consistent legal philosophy or argument at this point."
Maddow noted that legal advice to a president or a presidential campaign is generally considered prestigious, but in Trump's case, that is not happening.
"I asked a lawyer associated with us here at MSNBC today, not an on-air person but some who works off-air, to have a look at the complaint the Trump campaign filed in Michigan to try to stop the vote in Michigan. And that lawyer described it as something that looked like it was written by an elementary school student and something that did not actually have any of the predicates of a basic legal document, including the who, what, where, why, when of what they were alleging was the reason the court should step in and do something."
Maddow called it an "interesting" factoid in terms of what campaigns are bringing to the fight. Biden's team had thousands of lawyers lined up to take on whatever the Trump team could throw at them. The Trump campaign appears only to have Attorney General Bill Barr and Rudy Giuliani.
"It also makes me wonder if Republicans are so confident now — that there are so many conservative judges now that they have done such a good job in the federal courts stacking it with ideological, very right-wing, in some cases very young partisan-minded federal judges, that they've got a path even if what they're filing is just trash," Maddow questioned.
Wallace agreed that the question was an interesting one, noting that it's a conversation that should be had after the election. She wondered the degree to which "the courts are so contaminated by what Trump has said out loud he wants them to do" that they can't make a legally sound ruling.
"Trump said last night he's waiting to get this to the United States Supreme Court," Wallace continued. "No matter what they do, I think they are forever tainted by the notion that Donald Trump, who picked three of them, believes that they are sitting there waiting until one of these ludicrous, as you said, juvenile lawsuits makes its way to them. Whether they act on that or not doesn't matter. That is how Donald Trump described them, not just to his supporters but to the world. That is how he sees the United States Supreme Court."
She explained that it remains clear that Trump's own legal team can't come up with a legal theory as to why the vote-counting should stop in states like Arizona, much less what Trump wants to happen in Michigan and Wisconsin. The president simply wants counting to stop.
"So, there isn't a legal argument," Wallace said. "There isn't a legal through-line. So, even if you were sort of at the ready for Trump, a willing appointee waiting to do his political bidding, which I think is a reach even for the kinds of folks that he's put on the court, it's not clear what the philosophical, legal case is that's being made in the courts."
https://youtu.be/IT6IydWb2-o
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 07:50:39 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 07:44:28 AM
The number that gives me heartburn is the 70% reported number in Philadelphia. So much seems to hinge on that number. It seems a strangely low number by this stage, what if it's an error? :x
NYT has it at 89%.
If it helps - I find this dashboard pretty impressive which makes me think that, despite the (lack of) speed, they're on top of counting and reporting etc:
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
:confused: I still have Philadelphia County at 70% on NYT. Am I having some cache issues?
Sorry, you're quite right - I misread.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 12:02:07 AM
Quote. Georgia
According to CNN:
-Approx. 99,000 votes to go.
-Biden needs around 55% of those.
-Biden's average for the votes that have been coming in tonight is around 70%.
And this is another exhibit of why CNN is trash. Last evening the vote count had Trump up 32k. If there are 99k of ballots remaining and Biden got 55%, Trump would win by 22k. It wouldn't even be close.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 08:12:36 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 12:02:07 AM
Quote. Georgia
According to CNN:
-Approx. 99,000 votes to go.
-Biden needs around 55% of those.
-Biden's average for the votes that have been coming in tonight is around 70%.
And this is another exhibit of why CNN is trash. Last evening the vote count had Trump up 32k. If there are 99k of ballots remaining and Biden got 55%, Trump would win by 22k. It wouldn't even be close.
Current count is Trump up 18k. CNN's math would still not work, though.
The very latest numbers from the Georgia Secretary of State (updated 13 minutes ago) have Trump up just over 18k.
In Fulton County, the largest metro Atlanta county, they only have 10k ballots left to process and say they will be done by 11am. The late counted votes there are going to Biden at about an 80% clip. This was updated at 7:27 am from an interview with the Fulton elections chief by the AJC.
This is from last night from data I pulled together from the AJC (at least one place was counting until 4am so a lot was counted since then--at the time Trump's lead was ~31k):
About 90k votes are uncounted. Of those,
32k are from Fulton County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 72-26.
16k are from Chatham County (savannah), that went for Biden 58-41.
7k are from Clayton County (gone with the wind location outside atlanta), that went for Biden 85-14.
5k are from DeKalb County (metro atlanta), that went for Biden 83-16.
Honestly, if there really are only 10k ballots left in Fulton, I'm not optimistic.
The betting odds however favor Biden in Georgia by 64%.
I'd dig more into the numbers of where the votes are still outstanding - and how many - but it makes me too apprehensive. Hopefully it is done soon.
Hopefully Pennsylvania holds up...
In that MSNBC article the worrisome part is this:
"It also makes me wonder if Republicans are so confident now — that there are so many conservative judges now that they have done such a good job in the federal courts stacking it with ideological, very right-wing, in some cases very young partisan-minded federal judges, that they've got a path even if what they're filing is just trash," Maddow questioned.
It doesn't matter how poorly the legal arguments are if the judiciary is tainted. I trust, hopefully, that they'll vote based on jurisprudence and not on their ideology, but these days, in the USA, it's really hard to be certain.
So this is interesting - I saw it on Twitter as an observation of a trend but quickly checked to make sure it's not bullshit.
But basically in Miami-Dade and a few of those Texas counties that have been circulating, Biden's vote basically just matched Clinton's. But turnout was significantly higher and Trump won basically all of the new voters. Now probably if that was the other way round there'd be lots of shouting about fraud, but I swear I've read a lot about Trump basically never shutting his campaign down so he always had field offices going out registering voters etc.
It seems like a basic thing and worth doing but also strange that it's seen as sort of unusual rather than routine :mellow:
Edit: And I think the Dems made a huge mistake stopping door knocking (which is outside and distanced :blink - this and watching US news does give me more sympathy with AR's frustrations) v just spending lots of money and focusing on the air war.
So Dave Wasserman is saying Georgia's outstanding vote totals are not likely to be accurate, he says his sources say the absentee file isn't fully up to date in Georgia, and there's likely more than 50,000 votes out there not counting overseas military, that aren't reflected in the absentee data (because that data isn't up to date.)
Wasserman also thinks the outstanding ballots listed for Philadelphia is incorrect, because it would represent a net turnout decline in the city from 2016, and as we've seen like every other city has had significantly increased turnout from 2016 including other cities in Pennsylvania. He said if the number of outstanding ballots there is in line with the turnout you'd expect, Biden would flip PA from Philadelphia ballots alone, since those have been going to him 90-10.
I just hope that no one fucked up and counted all ballots that could potentially be returned as "outstanding". That would be a disaster.
Right, I think we're pretty comfortable with PA right now but that's the fear, if some idiot has the total outstanding wrong suddenly it's a lot less comfortable. We do know that sources inside the equivalent of the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's office already told Biden's team that based on their progress they expect he finishes Pennsylvania up 100-200k.
Georgia I think favors Trump now unless Wasserman is right about those extra ballots, which keep it more in play for Biden.
While PA is going to be counting throughout the day, they haven't really been very open imo with when they are updating and when they stop. I never even saw a firm indication of when they quit last night, but I checked the feed of their vote counters and saw none were there after like 9:30pm so I'm guessing that is when they stopped. When I woke up this morning the totals in PA hadn't changed since then so I guess I was right. Considering the importance it'd be nice if election officials would put out some release of when they're done and when they're starting etc. It's also annoying Arizona basically won't report data again until 9PM ET. We may resolve Nevada today if their claims of having all the counting done by this afternoon and reported all at once are true, but NV is only marginally important. Without PA Biden would need AZ as well, and with PA NV is irrelevant.
Never mind, I can do this. The AJC just put out an updated summary map of where the ballots are outstanding.
51k are outstanding total, Trump 18k ahead.
Including:
Fulton (Atlanta): 25k
Chatham (Savannah): 17k
THAT seems very doable, but close as fuck. If there are really 25k in Fulton, that should shrink Trump's lead to about 3k statewide with 26k remaining. Chatham should give Biden about a 3k boost. That leaves it a dead heat with 10k votes to count.
Most of the rest seems to be from the greater atlanta area. Biden should get there, but this could be Florida 2000 type of close.
However, the number outstanding contradicts what the Fulton elections chief said that status was at 4:30 am - he said 10k are uncounted, the secretary of state says 25k are uncounted.
Yeah, it feels like GA is going to come down to how many ballots are out there and for some reason we can't get a straight answer on it.
Do you know if they're mail-in ballots and how they're breaking in Georgia? Is it in a similar way to, say, Pennsylvania and the Mid-West (strongly for Biden and better for Biden even in Republican areas - because the President told his supporters not to use mail-in ballots) or more like Arizona where they vote by mail all the time so it's more mixed, and the later ballots favoured Trump? Or do we just not know?
But Georgia seems very, very close - I wonder impact these votes could have on the Senate race though :hmm:
So the remainder would probably need to break like 78% for Biden, a few batches ago the remainder would have needed to break 79% for Biden, so that suggests they're breaking enough for him to lower the % needed. Nate Silver seems to be saying 78% is very in line with what we've seen, but a percentage either way could be decisive and we have no clue what's going to happen.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 08:36:07 AM
Right, I think we're pretty comfortable with PA right now but that's the fear, if some idiot has the total outstanding wrong suddenly it's a lot less comfortable. We do know that sources inside the equivalent of the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's office already told Biden's team that based on their progress they expect he finishes Pennsylvania up 100-200k.
Georgia I think favors Trump now unless Wasserman is right about those extra ballots, which keep it more in play for Biden.
While PA is going to be counting throughout the day, they haven't really been very open imo with when they are updating and when they stop. I never even saw a firm indication of when they quit last night, but I checked the feed of their vote counters and saw none were there after like 9:30pm so I'm guessing that is when they stopped. When I woke up this morning the totals in PA hadn't changed since then so I guess I was right. Considering the importance it'd be nice if election officials would put out some release of when they're done and when they're starting etc. It's also annoying Arizona basically won't report data again until 9PM ET. We may resolve Nevada today if their claims of having all the counting done by this afternoon and reported all at once are true, but NV is only marginally important. Without PA Biden would need AZ as well, and with PA NV is irrelevant.
I think NV is important because it then turns the remaining three states into instant wins for Biden. Given that any one of those three states could have a surprise, it would make for a clear triple redundancy.
Sorry, Nate is saying as per AJC figures the remaining ballots would need to be Biden by 68%, not the 78 I said. This is in line with lots of previous ballot batches in GA as most are coming from ATL area.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 06:41:30 AM
If we're in the time for making observations, I noticed a couple of funny things going state by state, and it's that some of them can easily be labelled as one party states, given that either Dems or Reps won in every single county. For instance, Hawaii, Massachussets and Rhode Island are 100% Dem states, while West Virginia and Oklahoma are 100% Rep.
Uh, yeah... what's funny about that?
When I lived in Mass., pretty much all Republicans were crazy fringe people. The only elections that usually mattered in the state were Democratic primaries, since there was zero chance of the Republican nominee actually winning in the general. That said, the state likes to elect Republican governors from time to time (e.g. Mitt Romney), and somehow a Republican got elected to the Senate for a single term about a decade ago (Scott Brown).
So after a confusing morning--even the Georgia Secretary of State has now updated its official totals of outstanding ballots to the 50,000 or so number that has been going around.
They just want to enjoy their 15 days of fame, don't they?
Keep in mind Georgia's ballots do not include provisionals, overseas, or cured ballots. While it's impossible to guess how those would shift, they will come into play if this is a FL2000 situation in Georgia. Overseas military hasn't been as strong for Trump as is historical for a Republican, and provisionals and cured ballots historically break Dem.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 08:47:46 AM
They just want to enjoy their 15 days of fame, don't they?
Georgia feels like me when I tell my employer that I'm almost done but then I take 2-3 extra days to actually turn in the work.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 08:41:04 AM
Do you know if they're mail-in ballots and how they're breaking in Georgia? Is it in a similar way to, say, Pennsylvania and the Mid-West (strongly for Biden and better for Biden even in Republican areas - because the President told his supporters not to use mail-in ballots) or more like Arizona where they vote by mail all the time so it's more mixed, and the later ballots favoured Trump? Or do we just not know?
They are primarily mail in ballots but some provisional ballots as well (provisional ballots being people who showed up on election day, but the people running the polls weren't sure the person was eligible to vote--for example--if I requested an absentee ballot and then showed up to vote, they would see I requested an absentee and then tell me to cast a provisional vote, so they could check I didn't also vote the absentee).
They seem to be running slightly more pro biden--Fulton reported the last batch of counted votes was about 80% biden, versus 72.5% counted so far. But it isn't clear what is being counted now: are these early absentees (democrat skew) or late absentees (ambiguous skew) or a mix?
Quote
But Georgia seems very, very close - I wonder impact these votes could have on the Senate race though :hmm:
Not really any. In Georgia if you don't get over 50% of the vote you go to a runoff. The first senate race (we have 2) doesn't have anyone close to 50%. The second currently has the republican at 50.0 and the democrat at 47.7. While the republican is still technically at 50.0%, it is going to a runoff as well - doesn't seem any hope he holds that.
At the end of the day getting to "true" 100% counted in a state, which means every fucking absentee from every precinct, all the cured, overseas, and provisional ballots--usually does take days. It's just rare it matters or anyone cares, in all the instances in my lifetime where this has happened it's been a dreadfully painful experience to wait.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 08:49:20 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 08:47:46 AM
They just want to enjoy their 15 days of fame, don't they?
Georgia feels like me when I tell my employer that I'm almost done but then I take 2-3 extra days to actually turn in the work.
I mainly feel like Nevada because I don't think their vote count hasn't moved since Tuesday. I make a great start, get bored, nap, go for a drink, see friends, run out of time and have a panicked rush to meet a deadline :blush:
Interesting - thanks AR.
I donated to snopes.com. Now more than any other time they're key first responders.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 08:48:11 AM
Keep in mind Georgia's ballots do not include provisionals, overseas, or cured ballots. While it's impossible to guess how those would shift, they will come into play if this is a FL2000 situation in Georgia. Overseas military hasn't been as strong for Trump as is historical for a Republican, and provisionals and cured ballots historically break Dem.
You have until Friday to cure ballots in Georgia, so this isn't even an issue of counting if it is really within a few hundred votes.
The concern I have is that the secretary of state is telling the world fulton has 25k uncounted ballots and the fulton elections chief told the ajc it is 10k and would be done counting by 11 am. Anyway, I guess we will know soon.
It's weird no movement in NV, but they are definitely counting. MSNBC had reporters in the place where they count votes, whatever it was, in Washoe County (Reno) last night and you could see the workers counting ballots live.
What's the mechanism of counting the votes anyway? Is it a fully manual process? Or is it partially manual process (you have to unseal the envelop manually, but then feed it to a machine)? Would be nice to know, just to get a feel for what a reasonable timeline could be.
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 08:56:36 AM
It's weird no movement in NV, but they are definitely counting. MSNBC had reporters in the place where they count votes, whatever it was, in Washoe County (Reno) last night and you could see the workers counting ballots live.
I think they said they won't release new tallies till noon or so tday.
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 08:56:36 AM
It's weird no movement in NV, but they are definitely counting. MSNBC had reporters in the place where they count votes, whatever it was, in Washoe County (Reno) last night and you could see the workers counting ballots live.
They were initially planning to announce today, then said they'd announce on Wednesday, before finally saying they'd actually announce on Thursday. As I say I can only sympathise with that :blush:
QuoteScoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell
So, has the Senate at other points busted the figurative balls of incoming Presidents on who they can nominate for Cabinet positions? :hmm:
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 04:53:11 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmBms7uVoAEqHqe?format=jpg&name=medium)
I...worked on this meme for a year...and...he just...he tweeted it out.
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
STOP THE COUNT!
Edit: Of course the weird thing is if you stop the count now Biden's at 270 :hmm:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 08:49:51 AM
for example--if I requested an absentee ballot and then showed up to vote, they would see I requested an absentee and then tell me to cast a provisional vote, so they could check I didn't also vote the absentee).
that's a sure sigh they are Republican votes. Vote early and vote often the President said. ;)
FWIW while PA is still giving me heartburn, Dave Wasserman is saying the margins coming in are just astronomical and it won't even be close, but I'll feel a lot better when that displayed count goes from red to blue, it looks like based on the size of the PA data dump we can expect more dribbles throughout the day, not any huge one off dumps. So we may not see it flip til tomorrow.
I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 09:06:30 AM
QuoteScoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell
So, has the Senate at other points busted the figurative balls of incoming Presidents on who they can nominate for Cabinet positions? :hmm:
At that point, what stops them from demanding only GOP firebrands?
Thinking about Arizona, it's interesting several of the outfits to call it haven't wavered. With Fox News, which actually is one of the better decision desks at making calls I think it's possible they have done some sort of analysis they aren't sharing and actually still believe Biden has won. But there's also "internet-grade" rumors that due to the longstanding Murdoch v Trump feud, someone may have put a thumb on the finger to see AZ called for Biden early. It sitting there blue on the Fox News live map for 2 days has served as an effective blocker at Trump's overall information game since it keeps Biden so close to 270.
I still think Biden can come out ahead in Arizona fwiw, based on the sketchy details we're hearing there are two significant batches left in AZ that should be worse for Trump than the last few batches have been:
-Pima County
-Early mail in ballots -- apparently one of the Maricopa batches is not late arriving/election day absentee drop off ballots, but normal mail ballots that just hadn't been processed yet. The normal mail ballots in AZ have been overwhelmingly Blue. We don't know the size of this batch
But what that does mean is we should expect some sort of data dump at some point from AZ that will be worse for Trump, how much worse, I don't know. But once that happens it means Trump has to overperform even more for the remainder ballots to close the gap.
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 09:57:12 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 09:06:30 AM
QuoteScoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell
So, has the Senate at other points busted the figurative balls of incoming Presidents on who they can nominate for Cabinet positions? :hmm:
At that point, what stops them from demanding only GOP firebrands?
Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.
So Trump couldn't get approval for his nominees so he appointed loads of Interim and Acting Secretaries etc - it feels like Biden won't be able to get his, being Biden I expect he'll try to work with McConnell. But it basically feels like unless you have the Senate you won't be able to properly appoint people to run the various bits of the American government.
I just bet a bit over $2k (the max the site allows) on predictit that Biden would win Michigan and Wisconsin--the implied chances Trump has are 5-7%.
I was reading the comments to try to figure out wtf gives Trump such odds when the votes are basically over and he is way behind. It seems wild conspiracy theories--"There were more votes than registered voters in Wisconsin--Trump's lawyers are going to be all over this!"
I don't know what to say. Hopefully this doesn't end up being very close.
Senatorial control is paramount in a government run by Mitch McConnell.
Assuming Biden pulls this out, the Georgia Senate runoff(s) will be the most important election(s) since the the one that occured two days ago. :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:02:20 AM
Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.
FWIW, McConnell recently said he wants to pass more COVID stimulus, but couldn't because the Democrats didn't want to so close to the election (i.e. they were not cooperating as a political ploy).
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 10:07:36 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:02:20 AM
Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.
FWIW, McConnell recently said he wants to pass more COVID stimulus, but couldn't because the Democrats didn't want to so close to the election (i.e. they were not cooperating as a political ploy).
I think his willingness to do covid stimulus and the type he'll support is probably linked to who's in the White House.
And he did say that, but I'm not entirely convinced that actually means it's true. The White House and Pelosi were broadly agreed on the type of figure for a deal, McConnell only wanted something a lot lower and didn't want a vote on it that could divide the caucus before an election (and have Senators voting for a Pelosi passed House bill):
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-elections-house-elections-de0d5d7e76c960802e9ab541c302277b
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 09:56:16 AM
I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.
This election outcome and aftermath is a disaster. Pretty much the worst case scenario.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:02:20 AM
Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.
So Trump couldn't get approval for his nominees so he appointed loads of Interim and Acting Secretaries etc - it feels like Biden won't be able to get his, being Biden I expect he'll try to work with McConnell. But it basically feels like unless you have the Senate you won't be able to properly appoint people to run the various bits of the American government.
The Senate map is absolutely abysmal for the Republicans in 2022. They basically cleaned out the Democrats in 2016 (the trump wave) and took almost every purple seat. The point being: if the republicans escape with 52 senate seats (probably their best case scenario right now), they will have a very tough time defending it if they get more unpopular.
But the bigger picture is that I give McConnell a ton of leeway right now to talk super tough and unreasonably. Trump almost certainly has lost. The republican base is prone to believe that Trump is being cheated and this election is being stolen. Trump is prone to encourage that. McConnell may very well need to put some pressure to accept the election results, and the knock on the non-Trump GOP from the right has always been that they cave too easily. Acting like an insane motherfucker on issues not at hand may be good politics for the issue of this moment.
I put this way beyond Trump's abilities but I am now guessing some of the more sinister advisors around him assumed that the pandemic bruhaha meant it would be mainly Democrat voters using mail-in ballots and it could play out the way it has, and talked up the cheating BS with Trump to make sure the seed gets planted among the fanbase.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:12:56 AM
And he did say that, but I'm not entirely convinced that actually means it's true.
Agree, hence why I prefaced my comment with FWIW :)
So any chance of you guys getting these vote counts over and dusted, today, possibly by 6pm EST ?? :unsure:
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
So any chance of you guys getting these vote counts over and dusted, today, possibly by 6pm EST ?? :unsure:
I'll see what we can do for you, mongers.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 10:21:14 AM
The Senate map is absolutely abysmal for the Republicans in 2022. They basically cleaned out the Democrats in 2016 (the trump wave) and took almost every purple seat. The point being: if the republicans escape with 52 senate seats (probably their best case scenario right now), they will have a very tough time defending it if they get more unpopular.
I get the map is tough, but it'll be mid-terms and chance are Biden will be leading a country (in a world) that is recovering from covid and it's economic impact. And Republicans will have pivoted to deep concern about the astronomical level of debt the US now has and the deficit - it's certainly what I'd do if I was in their shoes. I feel like Republicans or any other opposition party doesn't necessarily need to be that popular to do well in that context.
And that's one thing I wonder if we need to re-evaluate, after the dust has settled. Was 2018 the strong blue wave disapproval of Trump that we thought it was, or was it just a typical mid-term result when the governing party's big attraction isn't at the top of the ticket?
QuoteBut the bigger picture is that I give McConnell a ton of leeway right now to talk super tough and unreasonably. Trump almost certainly has lost. The republican base is prone to believe that Trump is being cheated and this election is being stolen. Trump is prone to encourage that. McConnell may very well need to put some pressure to accept the election results, and the knock on the non-Trump GOP from the right has always been that they cave too easily. Acting like an insane motherfucker on issues not at hand may be good politics for the issue of this moment.
But what do you think it's for? What's McConnell's goal there?
As I say I think McConnell's in the best position possible right now - Trump's lost, they've got 6-3 on the Supreme Court and they will probably keep the Senate (they need to go all in on the Georgia races). My suspicion is they'll talk about just counting the votes and not get taken down the rabbit hole with Trump and his supporters (and I think the SC would do the same) because they've kept the Senate. If the GOP lost the White House and the Senate then I think we'd see them possibly embracing a lot more of a narrative around fraud and it being stolen from them.
Of course one thing I could see happening - especially if the Trumps do decide they want to make a run in 2024 - is help target RINOs who weren't loyal enough to the President in 2022. Which could change things in a big way.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
Quote from: Legbiter on November 05, 2020, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 09:56:16 AM
I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.
This election outcome and aftermath is a disaster. Pretty much the worst case scenario.
Without Trump, who will protect us from the blue-hairs?
Trump keeps tweeting out "Stop the Count". He does know that if the count stops right now he loses, right?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:34:32 AM
I get the map is tough, but it'll be mid-terms and chance are Biden will be leading a country (in a world) that is recovering from covid and it's economic impact. And Republicans will have pivoted to deep concern about the astronomical level of debt the US now has and the deficit - it's certainly what I'd do if I was in their shoes. I feel like Republicans or any other opposition party doesn't necessarily need to be that popular to do well in that context.
And that's one thing I wonder if we need to re-evaluate, after the dust has settled. Was 2018 the strong blue wave disapproval of Trump that we thought it was, or was it just a typical mid-term result when the governing party's big attraction isn't at the top of the ticket?
If the question is, "will republicans take the house in 2022?" I think that is a good possibility. But for the Senate, you can see the map here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections
The democrats have no seats in red states and the only purplish ones are Arizona (probably, depending on the current election), Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
Republicans are defending a zillion.
QuoteThe Democratic Super PAC in charge of House races is going to face serious questions about how it lost seats when projected to pick them up.
House Majority PAC's president is Robby Mook.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1324376902241603590
Robby Mook is infamous for being Hillary's campaign manager in 2016. :lol:
I am not so sure on GOP taking the House in 2022 fwiw. They may, they are in position to. But as we've started to do an analysis on the electorate Trump brought together, he really did do what a lot of people doubted--generate low propensity voter registrations and turnout for whites who just don't regularly vote. His messaging and strategy targeting black men and Hispanics really worked too, but the reason he didn't get flooded by the huge turnout for Biden is he actually did get more of those "base type" voters who had previously sat out of the political process out for him.
Now the issue is, these are very low propensity voters. These are the voters who love Trump, love that he's not a politician etc. They are also people in their 40s-60s who in all their lives had probably never voted before. What is the likelihood they stick around to vote in the 2022 midterms when their cult leader isn't on the ballot? We know they didn't bother to vote in 2018. We also know the last time we had a really "charismatic" candidate who mobilized a lot of low propensity voters, his voters didn't come out when he wasn't on the ballot either--talking about Obama here, Dems just couldn't get those voters out in 2010, 2014, and it cost them, they didn't come back for Hillary in 2016 either.
So with that being said I'm not convinced 2022 doesn't revert back to the demographic/turnout norm for the GOP, which is de facto worse for them. At the same time, the Dems obviously have gotten motivated to dump out Trump as well, so some of that will be gone. Additionally some of the suburban white vote may go back home to the GOP. But I think it's too early to tell, the suburban white vote seems a lot more interested in process issues and other things where the GOP has sucked ass for a real long time. I'm not convinced the GOP easily gets back some of these suburban voters, there's historical precedent for voters like that shifting away due to an unpalatable candidate and never really shifting back--it happened in several other "wave" elections in the 20th century.
I would also say it's worth remembering the Dems did almost none of their traditional registration drives or GOTV efforts because of Covid, and the GOP did all of theirs. I would hope by 2022 the Dems are back to doing that stuff. How much does that stuff affect an election? I think it's hard to say, but I have to think it at least moves the needle. The best way to find low propensity voters is to go to their homes and ask them to vote, the fact that they are low propensity means it's harder to find them other ways. They're less likely to follow political news etc.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 10:34:32 AM
But what do you think it's for? What's McConnell's goal there?
When I see McConnell indicating he is going to be 100% unreasonable and basically dictate cabinet positions to Biden, I read that as him saying he thinks Biden won and is not going to support Trump barricading himself in the White House.
I also read that as a way to keep republicans possibly prone to man Trump's barricades to consider, "wait, all is not lost. We can almost control the country with the senate."
McConnell probably will be historically uncooperative with the Biden administration, but that doesn't mean posturing today should be taken at face value. That is an issue for January.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
Super-interesting - thanks :)
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 10:54:01 AM
QuoteThe Democratic Super PAC in charge of House races is going to face serious questions about how it lost seats when projected to pick them up.
House Majority PAC's president is Robby Mook.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1324376902241603590
Robby Mook is infamous for being Hillary's campaign manager in 2016. :lol:
Christ :bleeding:
Surprised they didn't get Mark Penn in (I know the more recent issues) :lol:
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:00:40 AM
I am not so sure on GOP taking the House in 2022 fwiw. They may, they are in position to. But as we've started to do an analysis on the electorate Trump brought together, he really did do what a lot of people doubted--generate low propensity voter registrations and turnout for whites who just don't regularly vote. His messaging and strategy targeting black men and Hispanics really worked too, but the reason he didn't get flooded by the huge turnout for Biden is he actually did get more of those "base type" voters who had previously sat out of the political process out for him.
I know the republicans are euphoric that they got a bunch of minorities to vote for them, but I wonder if the reality isn't that they are losing the educated party of the population and much of the working class (which includes minorities) is terrified they are going to get put out of work if democrats take over and we go into lockdown. When covid goes away, the minorities go back to the democrats and republicans are back to being the uneducated white guy party.
QuoteAllegheny County, PA (where Pittsbrugh is located and where Biden defeats Trump 60-40) still has 35,413 uncounted mail-in ballots, but elections staff is taking today off for "administrative work" and will not resume count until Friday.
(...)
Allegheny County counting update
Most 35k mail-ins to be counted are the 29k ballots that can't be legally counted until Friday. No mail-in ballot counting today.
So, Pennsylvania probably won't be called today and we'll have to wait at least until tomorrow.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 10:45:27 AM
Trump keeps tweeting out "Stop the Count". He does know that if the count stops right now he loses, right?
Probably not.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 11:06:34 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 10:54:01 AM
QuoteThe Democratic Super PAC in charge of House races is going to face serious questions about how it lost seats when projected to pick them up.
House Majority PAC's president is Robby Mook.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1324376902241603590
Robby Mook is infamous for being Hillary's campaign manager in 2016. :lol:
Christ :bleeding:
Surprised they didn't get Mark Penn in (I know the more recent issues) :lol:
Robby Mook will now be in charge of the Dems Senate PAC in 2022. The GOP will hold all seats and the Dems will lose NH and NV.
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:18:12 AM
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
Yeah, political campaign 101 stuff. Rule 1 get out your vote. Rule 2 everything is subordinate to Rule 1. Rule 3 there are no other Rules.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 11:01:41 AM
When I see McConnell indicating he is going to be 100% unreasonable and basically dictate cabinet positions to Biden, I read that as him saying he thinks Biden won and is not going to support Trump barricading himself in the White House.
I also read that as a way to keep republicans possibly prone to man Trump's barricades to consider, "wait, all is not lost. We can almost control the country with the senate."
McConnell probably will be historically uncooperative with the Biden administration, but that doesn't mean posturing today should be taken at face value. That is an issue for January.
Yeah - so I don't disagree with any of that. I think the establishment GOP thinks Trump has lost and are fine with that and will just move on pretty quickly/not get distracted.
But I think their priority will be to win and for Biden to lose - but I think the work for that starts now, not in January. If they aren't wargaming how they're going to damage the new administration then they're in the wrong job. I don't think at this stage they particularly care about Trump, or even his supporters, because the election's over - it's just counting now (though they might do some "don't let them steal this one" GOTV stuff in Georgia for the Senate races).
And I think the best strategy to that is to be obstructive and low profile - which McConnell's great at, pivot to the national debt and attack big spending plans by Biden-Pelosi, but stop just short of shut-down. I think people will blame the President because he's higher profile and Pelosi because she showboats more than McConnell.
I think McConnell's an interesting politician because a lot of the time you can take what he says at face value, because he's normally saying they will get x thing done or they will stop y thing and he's very good at keeping his caucus together and delivering on that.
QuoteI'm not convinced the GOP easily gets back some of these suburban voters, there's historical precedent for voters like that shifting away due to an unpalatable candidate and never really shifting back--it happened in several other "wave" elections in the 20th century.
Yeah and there's a trend in other democracies for those type of voters to move to the party of the left. We've seen it at a very rapid pace in the UK where class is no longer the best predictor of how you'll vote, it's education.
QuoteI know the republicans are euphoric that they got a bunch of minorities to vote for them, but I wonder if the reality isn't that they are losing the educated party of the population and much of the working class (which includes minorities) is terrified they are going to get put out of work if democrats take over and we go into lockdown. When covid goes away, the minorities go back to the democrats and republicans are back to being the uneducated white guy party.
How much of the stuff around minorities and working class voters is based on exit polling on election day? Does it take into account the number of early and mail-in voters this year? I ask because I remember there being a number of surprises in the 2016 exit polls that then became a lot less surprising when Pew did some follow up deeper analysis of voters.
Totally agree on the education angle.
Georgia counties just sent results to the secretary of state. Fulton County (the big Atlanta one) said their uncounted ballots are down to 2k.
Trump's lead: 17k.
Heart sinks.
Georgia's Secretary of State says that several counties forgot to click "upload results" in the system and they don't have in the 11am reporting. He sent a reminder that they need to click that button.
Fulton County didn't report. This is my county. This is my state. This is how we operate when the eyes of the world are on us, normally we are a bit more dysfunctional. :)
I've read the Michigan complaint. Comments:
1) it is not the finest legal filing I've ever read, but its not grade school scribbling either.
2) There is a glaring absence of any concrete facts being alleged
3) Counsel is a small firm specializing in 5th amendment property cases. But the lead counsel was an elections law counsel for GWB. So far from an elections law A team, but perhaps a C team with arguments to be a B team.
4) The complaint is that GOP observers were not present when certain absentee ballots were being counted. However, no instance or evidence of this happening is supplied.
5) The complaint also says that Michigan failed to provide video surveillance of drop boxes which it claims is required under Michigan law.
The real head scratcher is assuming this is all true what is the remedy? The lawsuit asks that counting of absentee ballots "stop" and that drop box ballots be segregated. My understanding is that the count is done and the ballots can't be unscrambled now.
Tellingly, the plaintiff has not asked for a TRO (temporary order) that would be needed assuming the relief they sought was even possible. Instead they have asked for a declaratory judgment - basically a declaration from the court that Michigan didn't follow the law. However, that really doesn't do anything to change the results.
Seems to me the best possible outcome for Trump legally here would be an order for a statewide recount with GOP observers present but that obviously won't help Trump.
The other possibility is that this is a purely political ploy and the intent is to convince the Michigan legislature to toss the whole count. I don't see that happening either.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 05, 2020, 11:17:41 AM
Robby Mook will now be in charge of the Dems Senate PAC in 2022. The GOP will hold all seats and the Dems will lose NH and NV.
"We are thrilled to welcome back Joe Trippi as our campaign manager for the 2024 Biden/Harris Campaign" :lol:
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:18:12 AM
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
One other factor is maybe Howard Dean? Because I read a lot about him being quite effective at building up the party's infrastructure and his strategy feeding into victories in 2006 and 2008, while I've not read anything similar about recent DNC Chairs.
Quote from: Legbiter on November 05, 2020, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 09:56:16 AM
I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.
This election outcome and aftermath is a disaster. Pretty much the worst case scenario.
I can think of many cases worse than this :hmm:
It actually may not be a bad thing to have everybody cooling their heels for a few days before the results are discovered. Last time we had Hillary supporters protesting because everything happened so fast and shocked the system. Now everybody might be too bored to start protesting.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 05, 2020, 11:17:41 AM
Robby Mook will now be in charge of the Dems Senate PAC in 2022. The GOP will hold all seats and the Dems will lose NH and NV.
"We are thrilled to welcome back Joe Trippi as our campaign manager for the 2024 Biden/Harris Campaign" :lol:
I need a career where I repeatedly fail spectacularly but people keep giving me tons of responsibility and a huge paycheck.
Well I guess that is government :hmm:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2020, 11:27:48 AM
The real head scratcher is assuming this is all true what is the remedy? The lawsuit asks that counting of absentee ballots "stop" and that drop box ballots be segregated. My understanding is that the count is done and the ballots can't be unscrambled now.
Tellingly, the plaintiff has not asked for a TRO (temporary order) that would be needed assuming the relief they sought was even possible. Instead they have asked for a declaratory judgment - basically a declaration from the court that Michigan didn't follow the law. However, that really doesn't do anything to change the results.
That feels like you've got a client who wants you to "do something" but legally, there's not much you can actually do. Is that unfair?
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 09:56:16 AM
I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.
This image makes me so happy. ^_^
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 11:24:23 AM
How much of the stuff around minorities and working class voters is based on exit polling on election day? Does it take into account the number of early and mail-in voters this year? I ask because I remember there being a number of surprises in the 2016 exit polls that then became a lot less surprising when Pew did some follow up deeper analysis of voters.
Totally agree on the education angle.
For hispanics it is identifiable in returns in districts with large hispanic populations. For example, in one district in Texas, there is a 96% hispanic population. The democratic margins were cut by 55% versus 2016. As in, they won the county by 60 points in 2016 and only 5 in 2020, which is obviously insane. I've seen analysis showing shifts in hispanic significant districts in Florida and Colorado as well, so it isn't just a Texas phenomena.
On the one hand, I was arguing before the election that this would happen longer term (Catholics in general used to be super democrats, such as in the era of kennedy, but not anymore). But the abruptness of the shift is causing me to toss out my covid theory, without any evidence and probably because it aligns with what I think about covid.
Nevada; Biden lead expanded by 5k with first 15k ballots added today
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 12:02:43 PM
For hispanics it is identifiable in returns in districts with large hispanic populations. For example, in one district in Texas, there is a 96% hispanic population. The democratic margins were cut by 55% versus 2016. As in, they won the county by 60 points in 2016 and only 5 in 2020, which is obviously insane. I've seen analysis showing shifts in hispanic significant districts in Florida and Colorado as well, so it isn't just a Texas phenomena.
Fair. But I think it will take a lot of unpacking given that there don't seem to be those types of swings in Arizona (yet). Latino and hispanic are incredibly broad terms.
QuoteOn the one hand, I was arguing before the election that this would happen longer term (Catholics in general used to be super democrats, such as in the era of kennedy, but not anymore). But the abruptness of the shift is causing me to toss out my covid theory, without any evidence and probably because it aligns with what I think about covid.
I don't know if it's to do with Catholicism. From the early polls on this (:lol:), Catholics went for Biden and he did a lot better than Clinton.
In terms of religion I wonder if the growing evangelical protestant churches in Latino communities (and Latin America) may be part of it?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 11:02:12 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
Super-interesting - thanks :)
This is good.
I am curious how everyone has called arizona already. Things aren't looking good there.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 12:16:50 PM
I am curious how everyone has called arizona already. Things aren't looking good there.
That Fox guy must be shitting himself, even though it wasn't his fault.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 12:10:44 PM
Nevada; Biden lead expanded by 5k with first 15k ballots added today
In years past I think Pennsylvania and Nevada would already be called for Joe Biden and North Carolina and Alaska for Donald Trump. Everybody is so damn conservative this year...well except for Fox and Arizona.
What legal argument did Trump win re:Pennsylvania. I see him tweeting some shit about that.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:18:12 AM
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
I'm not sure you can point at lack of GOTV efforts when Biden's on track to get the largest number of votes of any presidential election. Yes, the Dems didn't seem to bother much with it, but I think they correctly assumed that Trump was doing their job for them. I think the problem lies elsewhere, like culture wars preventing them from being more effective with rural voters, and what I perceive (maybe wrongly, I live in Europe afterall) as lack of interest in turning that constituency.
Quote from: Maladict on November 05, 2020, 12:18:16 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 12:16:50 PM
I am curious how everyone has called arizona already. Things aren't looking good there.
That Fox guy must be shitting himself, even though it wasn't his fault.
It wasn't his fault for the initial call, but it's his fault for not retracting.
Quote from: Josephus on November 05, 2020, 12:23:23 PM
What legal argument did Trump win re:Pennsylvania. I see him tweeting some shit about that.
first mistake is reading Trump tweets. To my knowledge nothing has happened legally in PA TODAY
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 12:24:00 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:18:12 AM
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
I'm not sure you can point at lack of GOTV efforts when Biden's on track to get the largest number of votes of any presidential election. Yes, the Dems didn't seem to bother much with it, but I think they correctly assumed that Trump was doing their job for them. I think the problem lies elsewhere, like culture wars preventing them from being more effective with rural voters, and what I perceive (maybe wrongly, I live in Europe afterall) as lack of interest in turning that constituency.
Yeah this is the big problem with modern fascism. A lot of people with a genuine belief there is a culture war going on.
Education can fix this in the long term but in the short term I'm just know sure you convince ignorant hicks that transsexuals aren't about to sneak into their room at night and cut off their penis (or whatever it is they believe)
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 12:33:02 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 05, 2020, 12:18:16 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 12:16:50 PM
I am curious how everyone has called arizona already. Things aren't looking good there.
That Fox guy must be shitting himself, even though it wasn't his fault.
It wasn't his fault for the initial call, but it's his fault for not retracting.
They will have to soon, because Nevada is ready to be called any time now.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 12:12:45 PM
I don't know if it's to do with Catholicism. From the early polls on this (:lol:), Catholics went for Biden and he did a lot better than Clinton.
In terms of religion I wonder if the growing evangelical protestant churches in Latino communities (and Latin America) may be part of it?
I wasn't trying to attribute anything to religion. I was just trying to point out a demographic that was initially dialed in as democratic moved to be competitive in the past few decades as they mainstreamed.
It seems the future of Republicans/Democrats has long been defined by the demography is destiny debate. There are those that believe the coming minority status for whites means a future with a semi-permanent democrat majority as republicans are a party for white people. It is a major part of the reason the pre trump national republican leaders were supportive of immigration reform--trying to bring in hispanics. Obviously the efforts to appeal to minorities were quite a failure before this election. It would be a big deal if this is something beyond a one election thing.
Nevada being called with take the actual worst case scenario, the dreaded 269 all tie, off the table.
Perdue just went under 50% in Georgia by 121 votes. So given the trends we look to be headed to a wild double senate runoff in Georgia.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 12:42:55 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 12:24:00 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 11:18:12 AM
I will say with minority vote, while I kind of casually just chalked up a lot of the Obama coalition to his charisma, it should be noted Obama had the largest scale, most pervasive, community level GOTV effort in high minority % urban areas. Hillary didn't bother to even try replicating it, and Biden's team basically said because of Covid they don't need to do that sort of thing.
We probably shouldn't assume that it's smart to just never even try again to replicate some of the Obama "magic." But the Dems have to actually think this way, so far they haven't.
I'm not sure you can point at lack of GOTV efforts when Biden's on track to get the largest number of votes of any presidential election. Yes, the Dems didn't seem to bother much with it, but I think they correctly assumed that Trump was doing their job for them. I think the problem lies elsewhere, like culture wars preventing them from being more effective with rural voters, and what I perceive (maybe wrongly, I live in Europe afterall) as lack of interest in turning that constituency.
Yeah this is the big problem with modern fascism. A lot of people with a genuine belief there is a culture war going on.
Education can fix this in the long term but in the short term I'm just know sure you convince ignorant hicks that transsexuals aren't about to sneak into their room at night and cut off their penis (or whatever it is they believe)
I think the Dems could do a better job of stressing a progressive economic message. FL passed an increased minimum wage at the same time they voted to re-elect Trump.
Yeah and this is one of the reasons I think the leftwing of the party will prevail. Economic populism is a winner, culture war stuff might not be.
Quote from: Josephus on November 05, 2020, 12:23:23 PM
What legal argument did Trump win re:Pennsylvania. I see him tweeting some shit about that.
Maybe this?
QuoteTrump campaign can watch votes being counted in Pa. from six feet away
By Jon Swaine
Trump's campaign on Thursday secured the right to watch votes being counted in Pennsylvania from six feet away.
A state appeals court reversed a lower court's rejection of a request from the Trump campaign to be given closer access to the counting process.
Judge Christine Fizzano Cannon ordered that all candidates and their representatives "be permitted to observe all aspects of the canvassing process within 6 feet, while adhering to all COVID-19 protocols, including, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing."
In a 59-page brief filed earlier on Thursday morning, the Trump campaign complained that officials in Philadelphia had prevented observers from getting close enough to officials processing ballots. It argued that this was "casting a cloud over the ballots processed and the integrity of the vote."
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party had opposed the Trump campaign's appeal, arguing that the state legislature had placed limits on observers, apparently to avoid time-consuming challenges.
The decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the vote count. Observers are not permitted to challenge the validity of ballots. The Trump campaign said in its brief that it was not trying to change this, and "simply wants the right to observe."
But observers are likely to watch keenly for any potential irregularities to report back to the campaign. The Trump team has already joined Republican lawsuits seeking to halt the count of a small number of mail ballots whose voters were given the opportunity to correct errors.
"Under the Constitution, the legislature has the right to make these laws, which they've made, and the judge just confirmed that they must be followed," Trump campaign attorney Pam Bondi said at a news conference about the legal victory in Philadelphia. "So we plan on entering that building and legally observing the voting process."
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 12:47:06 PMI wasn't trying to attribute anything to religion. I was just trying to point out a demographic that was initially dialed in as democratic moved to be competitive in the past few decades as they mainstreamed.
Sure - it will be interesting to see a breakdown of this
QuoteIt seems the future of Republicans/Democrats has long been defined by the demography is destiny debate. There are those that believe the coming minority status for whites means a future with a semi-permanent democrat majority as republicans are a party for white people. It is a major part of the reason the pre trump national republican leaders were supportive of immigration reform--trying to bring in hispanics. Obviously the efforts to appeal to minorities were quite a failure before this election. It would be a big deal if this is something beyond a one election thing.
I think that's always been nonsense though the demographics is destiny thing. We've heard it so many times from both parties. I remember the last time the Republicans significantly increased their vote with minorities in 2004 all the talk about an "emerging Republican majority" expanding into minorities through compassionate conservatism (and immigration reform). Of course one of the is probably material - Trump is doing better than the candidacy of some guys who wanted to privatise social security, Bush in 2004 blew a lot of capital on that as well.
I don't think anything's fixed but there's definitely an opportunity if the Rubio/Reversalist wing of the GOP manage to win arguments within the party.
That is actually the historical trend. The Democrats have always been the immigrants party. As they mainstream they began to resemble general national trends.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 12:58:25 PM
That is actually the historical trend. The Democrats have always been the immigrants party. As they mainstream they began to resemble general national trends.
Yeah - I suppose part of it is if Latinos stay "racialised" or if they become more like, say, Italian-Americans. It'll be really interesting to see breakdowns by part of Latin America, generation etc.
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 12:51:09 PM
Quote from: Josephus on November 05, 2020, 12:23:23 PM
What legal argument did Trump win re:Pennsylvania. I see him tweeting some shit about that.
Maybe this?
QuoteTrump campaign can watch votes being counted in Pa. from six feet away
By Jon Swaine
Trump's campaign on Thursday secured the right to watch votes being counted in Pennsylvania from six feet away.
A state appeals court reversed a lower court's rejection of a request from the Trump campaign to be given closer access to the counting process.
Judge Christine Fizzano Cannon ordered that all candidates and their representatives "be permitted to observe all aspects of the canvassing process within 6 feet, while adhering to all COVID-19 protocols, including, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing."
In a 59-page brief filed earlier on Thursday morning, the Trump campaign complained that officials in Philadelphia had prevented observers from getting close enough to officials processing ballots. It argued that this was "casting a cloud over the ballots processed and the integrity of the vote."
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party had opposed the Trump campaign's appeal, arguing that the state legislature had placed limits on observers, apparently to avoid time-consuming challenges.
The decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the vote count. Observers are not permitted to challenge the validity of ballots. The Trump campaign said in its brief that it was not trying to change this, and "simply wants the right to observe."
But observers are likely to watch keenly for any potential irregularities to report back to the campaign. The Trump team has already joined Republican lawsuits seeking to halt the count of a small number of mail ballots whose voters were given the opportunity to correct errors.
"Under the Constitution, the legislature has the right to make these laws, which they've made, and the judge just confirmed that they must be followed," Trump campaign attorney Pam Bondi said at a news conference about the legal victory in Philadelphia. "So we plan on entering that building and legally observing the voting process."
What could possibly go wrong.
Woops. Spilled my 6 pint tub of coke.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 01:07:24 PM
Woops. Spilled my 6 pint tub of coke.
Did you spill it all over some ballots? :angry:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 01:00:53 PM
Yeah - I suppose part of it is if Latinos stay "racialised" or if they become more like, say, Italian-Americans. It'll be really interesting to see breakdowns by part of Latin America, generation etc.
It is not going to stop any articles being written or theorizing, because what else is there to do? But if we can't trust polling, and covid is making exit polls even more unreliable in 2020, the breakdowns may be bullshit.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 01:17:18 PM
It is not going to stop any articles being written or theorizing, because what else is there to do? But if we can't trust polling, and covid is making exit polls even more unreliable in 2020, the breakdowns may be bullshit.
Yeah the industrial-take complex is a hell of a thing.
I imagine we'll get a more complete analysis, like Pew did in 2016, in a few months that might change a lot of the initial takes. It's a bit similar to this election in general - the experience on Tuesday night may end up mattering more than facts once all the votes are counted. And once that perception takes hold, it's going to be tough to shift.
In a two party system semi-permanent is kinda silly, but it will make it almost impossible for a white grievance party that can't win basically 100% of the white vote, to be viable in a country that is going to be less than 50% white.
It will mean the GOP eventually has to change some positions.
While I agree we probably need higher quality election analytics to come out before making any bold proclamations, I think that this election suggests things are largely going the way Democrats would want. But the hope that they were going to move that way by a giant leap, not so much. It's going to be awhile, probably another 10 years.
If the Dems found a way to at least reduce the flames on the culture war stuff and find a way to even message a little bit to rural voters, I think you'd put the GOP in a worse place. I don't really know how you do that though, it's extremely non-trivial I'd say. Under Biden the Dems should focus on policy promises that really resonate with the working class. I think under Obama there was a belief "if we can't get it past Mitch, we shouldn't dwell on it much." But that's silly, there are several politicians that have built entire political movements on policies they can't implement or get passed in the legislature. The rhetoric actually matters for building a good foundation, and I think a lot of Democrats historically haven't felt the need to bother. Obama really gave up on politicking when he wasn't running, a big critique I'd have of him (but I was pretty anti-Obama when he was in office so it didn't bother me a ton at the time.) Obama thought he was above getting in the mud really pushing national narratives on individual pieces of legislation.
I think you cede a lot of the battlefield to the GOP when you do that. The Obama era GOP kept their base focused with all kinds of policy promises they knew they couldn't implement, Dems need to just get in that game to some degree.
That's not the only thing they need to do, but it's one of the easiest they can do since they control their own behavior.
Very Smart People are determining that NV is basically over. The math just won't work out for Donald.
I suspect the Fox News and AP guys won't actually call it yet though. :lol:
On the two party system thing I have to ask what is so special about Maine that allowed them to setup a democratic voting system there whilst elsewhere doesn't?
AV, split electoral vote.... Sounds not just better than elswhere but outright good.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 05, 2020, 01:28:34 PM
Very Smart People are determining that NV is basically over. The math just won't work out for Donald.
I suspect the Fox News and AP guys won't actually call it yet though. :lol:
As I said under normal conditions most of these states would already be called and we would all just be looking at Arizona and Georgia.
People have been extremely cautious about calling anything, except for Arizona where Fox and the AP were riverboat gamblers.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 01:29:02 PM
On the two party system thing I have to ask what is so special about Maine that allowed them to setup a democratic voting system there whilst elsewhere doesn't?
AV, split electoral vote.... Sounds not just better than elswhere but outright good.
Nothing is special about Maine at all. The states run their own elections. Everybody could have that if they wanted to.
Inertia and tradition are powerful in most states and nothing tends to change until something goes wrong sufficiently enough to embarrass the state in question. Like look at how smooth and well managed the Florida election was? Nothing so archaic as voting chads there anymore.
I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in. <_<
Sounds like Nevada won't be called till tomorrow at earliest
That scraper website pretty much has Biden winning Georgia, or am I missing something? :unsure:
With 45k votes left to count - and the current spate of votes in the 73%+ rate for Biden - it looks really good for him. I mean, there will be a recount, but still.
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 01:32:25 PM
I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in. <_<
Pennsylvania won't finish counting till tomorrow
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 01:32:25 PM
I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in. <_<
You should feel better this evening...evening in Pennsylvania that is.
Arizona is fascinating. The % coming in for trump is ever decreasing but he is still over 50% and slowly making ground.
And ja. Way too many sudden drops in the expected percentage with no voters elsewhere
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 01:32:25 PM
I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in. <_<
On that scraper site Trump's lead has gone from about 350k to 115k in the last day - and remember that for at least part of that the count in Philly was reportedly stopped for the legal challenge.
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 01:35:24 PM
Arizona is fascinating. The % coming in for trump is ever decreasing but he is still over 50% and slowly making ground.
And ja. Way too many sudden drops in the expected percentage with no voters elsewhere
Arizona hasn't announced any new voter totals in almost 12 hours :hmm:
And there are almost a half million left to count :hmm:
What are you talking about?
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 01:34:31 PM
That scraper website pretty much has Biden winning Georgia, or am I missing something? :unsure:
With 45k votes left to count - and the current spate of votes in the 73%+ rate for Biden - it looks really good for him. I mean, there will be a recount, but still.
Past performance are not indicative of future results. If this last batch performs like the rest then yes Biden will barely pull it out. But it might not.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 01:32:20 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 01:29:02 PM
On the two party system thing I have to ask what is so special about Maine that allowed them to setup a democratic voting system there whilst elsewhere doesn't?
AV, split electoral vote.... Sounds not just better than elswhere but outright good.
Nothing is special about Maine at all. The states run their own elections. Everybody could have that if they wanted to.
Inertia and tradition are powerful in most states and nothing tends to change until something goes wrong sufficiently enough to embarrass the state in question. Like look at how smooth and well managed the Florida election was? Nothing so archaic as voting chads there anymore.
Common human traits I wager. After a crippling scandal about widespread adding anti-freeze to Austrian wines in the 80s, the industry turned itself inside out and upside down in terms of quality assurance and has now an excellent reputation.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 01:40:25 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 01:34:31 PM
That scraper website pretty much has Biden winning Georgia, or am I missing something? :unsure:
With 45k votes left to count - and the current spate of votes in the 73%+ rate for Biden - it looks really good for him. I mean, there will be a recount, but still.
Past performance are not indicative of future results. If this last batch performs like the rest then yes Biden will barely pull it out. But it might not.
I think that if Biden needs Georgia, then Georgia is Florida in 2000.
But for him to need Georgia, Trump has to get Pennsylvania and Arizona, neither of which seems likely. (assuming Nevada is in the bag)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFEl7-XEAo84IT?format=jpg&name=small)
Yeah but states also have Constitutions.
I doubt very many of them say that the legislatures are free to ignore the popular vote.
I see a tiny bit of angst from some people I know about PA--but remember Biden is winning big in almost every batch, Allegheny County has around 20,000 ballots that are on hold until Friday that will probably be very heavily Biden 85%+, and Philly stopped sending reports in for several hours. With 500,000 to go as per the Penn SecState like 45 minutes ago and the way they're going, Trump's 115k or so lead is mathematically in very bad shape. The issue comes down to voting method, these are mail in votes and in Pennsylvania for every 1 Republican who cast one of those about 2.5 Democrats did. Even in counties that Biden won't come close to winning, it's often been the case he won the mail voting due to that 2.5:1 ratio. There are "less bad" and "awful" batches on the board for Trump in PA. There aren't any expected good ones anywhere.
AZ is more complex because of the fact mail voting is much more established there and frequently used by Republicans, but most AZ insiders still think because we haven't seen the dumps from the expected blue areas in like 2 days, that Trump will be set back there really bad when those do come out, such that he likely can't close the gap (but he should narrow it substantially.) But AZ is imo still fairly unknown because no one really knows the exact composition of these outstanding ballots, there's a lot of speculation and such based on different AZ pollster's knowledge of AZ. The state itself hasn't been nearly as transparent about what ballots it's holding as GA and PA have been.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 01:33:53 PM
Sounds like Nevada won't be called till tomorrow at earliest
A shame because if Nevada could be called it would lead to a possibly hilarious meltdown as Fox is the first and only network to call the election for Biden :ph34r: :lol:
Watching PA vote counts is like watching Zeno's paradox. The gap keeps shrinking and shrinking, smaller chunk each time, but it doesn't seem to disappear.
Yi and Meri, are you reconsidering the idea that it is cool that ballots can still arrive after the polls close? I know that isn't the only (or even main) reason the count is still going, but there is something to be said for getting mail in ballots out with plenty of time, and having it be the voters responsibility to get it to election officials by election day (including in drop boxes) or to vote in person.
Two problems:
1) In a practical sense, the delayed count is destroying any mandate Biden would have had. Historically the votes are counted Tuesday, and one party loses and one wins. The losing party is demoralized, and gives the new president some leeway.
Biden would have won with about 306 electoral college votes, 52% of the vote and a 4 point margin of victory (probably). A resounding win. But instead of feeling defeated, Republicans seem to be energized, and a sizeable group thinking this is being stolen from them. McConnell is openly discussing unprecedented levels of obstructionism.
2) Imagine this becomes a close to tie vote. It comes down to Pennsylvania and the vote margin is 50 votes. You have tens of thousands of absentee ballots floating around that never got submitted. People start trying to send them in, claiming they were submitted before, maybe the post man finds some that slid under the seat in his car, etc. It is a recipe for even more chaos.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
I don't understand this. Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?
I'm generally in favor with requiring mail ballots to unequivocally arrive by election day, and if you are choosing to use postal voting you simply need to be very conservative and understand you need to get that ballot mailed 10 days out to have 0.0% chance of it not getting there in time. At 5 days out it's probably 95% chance of getting there in time, but why risk it?
I will reiterate that in PA where they were not allowed to even start counting mail ballots until the polls closed, the vast majority of ballots being counted arrived in time even under this metric. Other states that require mail ballots to arrive by election day, but allowed pre-counting, had their counting done very fast.
The problem with not allowing the ballots after election day is that it's unfair and not legitimate to throw out valid votes because of failure of post office. I don't see why we can't have the mail-in deadline be a week before the election, though. You have at least one week to check and see whether your ballot made it in, and you have remedies in case it didn't come in.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 02:19:54 PM
I will reiterate that in PA where they were not allowed to even start counting mail ballots until the polls closed, the vast majority of ballots being counted arrived in time even under this metric. Other states that require mail ballots to arrive by election day, but allowed pre-counting, had their counting done very fast.
Yeah and that was part of a deliberate strategy. So confusion and issues around "legitimacy" are features not bugs of the system in certain states like Pennsylvania. If the goal was a quick, decisive result then they could have a system like, say, Florida's.
In Sweden mail ballots have to be in time for the start of counting, AFAIK that means no later than election day. Seems fine to me, and I don't think I've ever heard anyone complain about this. If you don't trust the post office to deliver quickly then just vote a bit earlier.
Check this twitter feed out of Maria Bartiromo. She is a Fox Business host and previously a long time CNBC host. She is what I guess passes for right leaning but not in the talk show host realm of crazy:
https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo
Lots of hints of Trump losing because of voter fraud.
I imagine in the true conservative echo chamber / talk show universe it is dramatically worse.
I don't know that most Republican voters are going to accept Trump losing as something other than a fraud. Trump certainly won't lead them there. I expect some doozies in Syt's family thread.
So it looks like we're headed for a runoff circus in Georgia to determine the Senate. Let's see how much money gets dumped in by both parties.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:19:24 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
I don't understand this. Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?
It's not saying any particular result. But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in. So incredibly tight.
But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).
An interesting little tool.
Why drag Tim into this, Beeb?
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 02:21:34 PM
The problem with not allowing the ballots after election day is that it's unfair and not legitimate to throw out valid votes because of failure of post office. I don't see why we can't have the mail-in deadline be a week before the election, though. You have at least one week to check and see whether your ballot made it in, and you have remedies in case it didn't come in.
If you define a valid vote as one that arrives by election day, then you aren't throwing out valid votes. :P
What is the difference between sending out ballots three weeks before the election and telling people to get them back by election day (either by mail, dropping them off at the voting location, or deposited in a drop box), and your system of telling them to have them mailed a week before the election?
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:33:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 02:21:34 PM
The problem with not allowing the ballots after election day is that it's unfair and not legitimate to throw out valid votes because of failure of post office. I don't see why we can't have the mail-in deadline be a week before the election, though. You have at least one week to check and see whether your ballot made it in, and you have remedies in case it didn't come in.
If you define a valid vote as one that arrives by election day, then you aren't throwing out valid votes. :P
What is the difference between sending out ballots three weeks before the election and telling people to get them back by election day (either by mail, dropping them off at the voting location, or deposited in a drop box), and your system of telling them to have them mailed a week before the election?
:hmm: I'll get back to you on that one.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:26:30 PM
Check this twitter feed out of Maria Bartiromo. She is a Fox Business host and previously a long time CNBC host. She is what I guess passes for right leaning but not in the talk show host realm of crazy:
https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo
Lots of hints of Trump losing because of voter fraud.
I imagine in the true conservative echo chamber / talk show universe it is dramatically worse.
I don't know that most Republican voters are going to accept Trump losing as something other than a fraud. Trump certainly won't lead them there. I expect some doozies in Syt's family thread.
Bartiromo used to pretty straight but recently got Rudy Disease and has been spouting nutty Trumpy stuff for a while now.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2020, 02:37:12 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:26:30 PM
Check this twitter feed out of Maria Bartiromo. She is a Fox Business host and previously a long time CNBC host. She is what I guess passes for right leaning but not in the talk show host realm of crazy:
https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo
Lots of hints of Trump losing because of voter fraud.
I imagine in the true conservative echo chamber / talk show universe it is dramatically worse.
I don't know that most Republican voters are going to accept Trump losing as something other than a fraud. Trump certainly won't lead them there. I expect some doozies in Syt's family thread.
Bartiromo used to pretty straight but recently got Rudy Disease and has been spouting nutty Trumpy stuff for a while now.
Minsky beat me to this, but yeah she nuttier than squirrel shit these days. ( but then again so is most of the GOP) :lol:
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2020, 02:29:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:19:24 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
I don't understand this. Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?
It's not saying any particular result. But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in. So incredibly tight.
But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).
An interesting little tool.
What are "Blocks"? Why do block trends and hurdles keep changing?
Are democrats going to lose the house?
Blocks of votes reporting.
Each result changes the result the candidate needs to win based on the projected remaining votes.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:37 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2020, 02:29:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:19:24 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html (https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html)
This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.
I don't understand this. Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?
It's not saying any particular result. But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in. So incredibly tight.
But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).
An interesting little tool.
What are "Blocks"? Why do block trends and hurdles keep changing?
Each block is each batch of new votes that were added to the total. Trends and hurdles change as more votes are added.
Oh, okay. Thanks. I wish I understood statistics. :(
So long as it doesn't change the election outcome, i want Arizona to go to Trump.
My girlfriend has for days been refusing to discuss the possibility of Arizona being up in the air, because it has been "called". She is dismissive as though I'm a madman for thinking the AP experts would be wrong, or that Fox would do something unjustified that was pro democrat.
Arizona would force her to recognize my genius, just as covid-19 will force you guys once it becomes clear how awesome my takes were.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2020, 11:27:48 AM
I've read the Michigan complaint. Comments:
1) it is not the finest legal filing I've ever read, but its not grade school scribbling either.
2) There is a glaring absence of any concrete facts being alleged
3) Counsel is a small firm specializing in 5th amendment property cases. But the lead counsel was an elections law counsel for GWB. So far from an elections law A team, but perhaps a C team with arguments to be a B team.
4) The complaint is that GOP observers were not present when certain absentee ballots were being counted. However, no instance or evidence of this happening is supplied.
5) The complaint also says that Michigan failed to provide video surveillance of drop boxes which it claims is required under Michigan law.
The real head scratcher is assuming this is all true what is the remedy? The lawsuit asks that counting of absentee ballots "stop" and that drop box ballots be segregated. My understanding is that the count is done and the ballots can't be unscrambled now.
Tellingly, the plaintiff has not asked for a TRO (temporary order) that would be needed assuming the relief they sought was even possible. Instead they have asked for a declaratory judgment - basically a declaration from the court that Michigan didn't follow the law. However, that really doesn't do anything to change the results.
Seems to me the best possible outcome for Trump legally here would be an order for a statewide recount with GOP observers present but that obviously won't help Trump.
The other possibility is that this is a purely political ploy and the intent is to convince the Michigan legislature to toss the whole count. I don't see that happening either.
Motion for emergency relief denied.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1324402059559477248
Awesome Michigan accent from Heather Meingast (asst AG).
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:51:06 PM
So long as it doesn't change the election outcome, i want Arizona to go to Trump.
My girlfriend has for days been refusing to discuss the possibility of Arizona being up in the air, because it has been "called". She is dismissive as though I'm a madman for thinking the AP experts would be wrong, or that Fox would do something unjustified that was pro democrat.
Arizona would force her to recognize my genius, just as covid-19 will force you guys once it becomes clear how awesome my takes were.
I'm not sure your expectations of how people react to being proven wrong are grounded in reality.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Are democrats going to lose the house?
Only if these mail in votes in California suddenly go very red.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 03:00:54 PM
I'm not sure your expectations of how people react to being proven wrong are grounded in reality.
"In a family argument, if it turns out you are right, apologize at once."
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 03:01:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Are democrats going to lose the house?
Only if these mail in votes in California suddenly go very red.
Maybe I shouldn't have voted a straight Peace and Freedom ticket...
So just saw this:
QuoteChris Wallace says the Fox Decision Desk is sticking with their AZ call, and that Biden picking up Nevada would put him at 270 under their tally.
The fact that this has come up multiple times and Fox are discussing it suggests to me that their Decision Desk team must be seeing/know something that is making them not withdraw their call.
Oh bunch of expected Georgia votes went away :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 03:06:04 PM
So just saw this:
QuoteChris Wallace says the Fox Decision Desk is sticking with their AZ call, and that Biden picking up Nevada would put him at 270 under their tally.
The fact that this has come up multiple times and Fox are discussing it suggests to me that their Decision Desk team must be seeing/know something that is making them not withdraw their call.
Know something enough to be 99.5% sure? :yeahright:
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 03:08:22 PM
Oh bunch of expected Georgia votes went away :hmm:
I hope it's a feed issue.
They know Murdoch put his foot down?
I don't know - maybe, maybe not. They've been challenged, they've been given off-ramps and they're sticking to it - and earlier we were praising them in particular as very good and walled off from editorial pressure.
It could be pride, or vanity, for sure. But I just think it's striking they've not taken any of those off-ramps or points when you could legitimately say "well the information's changed so we've re-evaluated."
That ticker was in hindsight a little too good. It's now panic stations as across the field it looks bad.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 03:10:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 03:08:22 PM
Oh bunch of expected Georgia votes went away :hmm:
I hope it's a feed issue.
I don't want to be pessimistic but what Fulton County has been saying in interviews has consistently been less than what the secretary of state says.
Sheilbh - a problem with thinking the Fox and AP people "know something" is that the whole world is looking at this right now. It seems less likely that they have the greatest expertise and more likely that isolated thinking/pride is causing them to stick to their guns. Still seems like Arizona goes D but...
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 03:18:08 PM
That ticker was in hindsight a little too good. It's now panic stations as across the field it looks bad.
What are you talking about?
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:51:06 PM
So long as it doesn't change the election outcome, i want Arizona to go to Trump.
My girlfriend has for days been refusing to discuss the possibility of Arizona being up in the air, because it has been "called". She is dismissive as though I'm a madman for thinking the AP experts would be wrong, or that Fox would do something unjustified that was pro democrat.
Arizona would force her to recognize my genius, just as covid-19 will force you guys once it becomes clear how awesome my takes were.
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 03:20:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 05, 2020, 03:18:08 PM
That ticker was in hindsight a little too good. It's now panic stations as across the field it looks bad.
What are you talking about?
isn't this the question to everyone of his posts?
So Georgia Secretary of State literally said minutes ago that they actually have 47,000 votes left to be counted. But the data feed has it down to 27,000. I have a lot of ideas as to why there could be discrepancies, and it all kinda comes together in my mind to make me say Georgia probably isn't worth following vote by vote right now. It's going to be real close, and we won't know until they clean up their shit and clearly tell us what's left, which probably will be days.
Ok those potential votes are back. Yeah!
WTF is wrong with some people: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/missouri-poll-worker-positive-covid-19-still-worked-shift-died-n1246620.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
I haven't received my invitation yet. :unsure:
Looking at the feed site, one question pops out at me: who the fuck thought it was helpful to display time stamps as "one day ago"? Seriously, this shit is all over the Internet, and so often destroys useful information. What, is it not obvious how long ago 10 pm on November 4 was? If you need a precise answer, I'm sure you possess the ability to figure it out.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
That woman is a saint.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:18:51 PM
Sheilbh - a problem with thinking the Fox and AP people "know something" is that the whole world is looking at this right now. It seems less likely that they have the greatest expertise and more likely that isolated thinking/pride is causing them to stick to their guns. Still seems like Arizona goes D but...
I've no idea if the know something (for example Fox did a story about doing polling (:lol:) on the breakdown of types of vote), or if it's pride or whatever else. But none of us do and I just think we can't be any more certain that they should be withdrawing those calls or sticking to them. Even other modellers looking at this won't be looking at the same information being interpreted in the same way.
All we know is they've been given chances to withdraw them and they haven't. Tomorrow we'll know if they should have pulled the calls or not.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
that still doesn't answer my question of odds, mr betting man
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
That woman is a saint.
that's one way to look at it.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 03:39:08 PM
All we know is they've been given chances to withdraw them and they haven't. Tomorrow we'll know if they should have pulled the calls or not.
Not really. :lol:
I mean, the betting odds have Biden 79% likely to win Arizona. If those odds are at all reflective of what is going on, it is ridiculous to have the state "called".
In Florida in 2000, the networks first called it for Gore, and then called it for Bush, and then pulled it back. Anyone saying, "well we were wrong about the call on Gore but got it right the second time because Bush won (arguably)" is not right. They aren't supposed to be predicting who will win, but telling you, "this one is in the bag, you can ignore it from now on because the losing candidate has no reasonable path to victory".
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
Then you should probably let that Arizona thing go. And tell her you're sorry. Especially if you turn out to be right.
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 03:52:40 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
Then you should probably let that Arizona thing go. And tell her you're sorry. Especially if you turn out to be right.
shut up spicy, I'm trying to win a bet.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
Congrats :cheers:
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:56:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 03:52:40 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
Then you should probably let that Arizona thing go. And tell her you're sorry. Especially if you turn out to be right.
shut up spicy, I'm trying to win a bet.
She isn't going to dump me because of Arizona.
She might dump me when she finds out I bet $20k on this election. :lol: (she voted for Biden but was convinced that Trump would win)
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:49:28 PMNot really. :lol:
I mean, the betting odds have Biden 79% likely to win Arizona. If those odds are at all reflective of what is going on, it is ridiculous to have the state "called".
In Florida in 2000, the networks first called it for Gore, and then called it for Bush, and then pulled it back. Anyone saying, "well we were wrong about the call on Gore but got it right the second time because Bush won (arguably)" is not right. They aren't supposed to be predicting who will win, but telling you, "this one is in the bag, you can ignore it from now on because the losing candidate has no reasonable path to victory".
Yeah - but this is the article I mentioned, Fox have taken an approach they say is different than the other networks (because the mail-in voting). We are not all looking at the same thing - even among the networks:
https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-decision-desk-director-election-night-calling-races-2020-10?r=US&IR=T
It could be that, based on what they're looking at and (presumably how that's performed in other states), that they have valid reasons for being confident and the new information they've received isn't changing anything. I don't know if that's the case and it could be vanity or pride etc. But I don't think it's necessarily right that they should just herd with the other broadcasters when they may have good reasons for sticking by the call.
As I say they've had plenty of reasons and chances to climb-down on this and haven't. My own view is that it's probably more likely they're doing that because they're confident than proud but it could be either, or some other reason. It's not clear that they definitely should pull it.
Edit: And, incidentally, AP use the same system Fox do - so those two are looking at the same thing and not pulling their calls.
And congrats! :w00t: :hug:
Oh I wasn't saying she's gonna dump you over Arizona, I was saying she was dumping you because you're insufferable prick. :hug:
Anyone else notice AF didn't actually answer Katmai's question?
Pennsylvania Secretary of State says she believes enough votes will be counted that news agencies will be able to project a winner today. Which, at the glacial rate of 2-3000 votes every half hour or so, I don't see how that is true. They need to drop some 30-40k batches like they were doing earlier in the morning.
GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.
Updates are trickling in from mail in ballots statewide, not just the cities.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 04:08:27 PM
GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.
:ccr
Don't let them draw you in on a wager about how long your relationship lasts that could itself be a catalyst for a breakup.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 04:07:17 PM
Pennsylvania Secretary of State says she believes enough votes will be counted that news agencies will be able to project a winner today. Which, at the glacial rate of 2-3000 votes every half hour or so, I don't see how that is true. They need to drop some 30-40k batches like they were doing earlier in the morning.
Well they just dropped 13,700 a minute ago so maybe we are picking up the pace.
Under 100,000 margin. We are on our way in Pennsylvania.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 03:35:29 PM
Looking at the feed site, one question pops out at me: who the fuck thought it was helpful to display time stamps as "one day ago"? Seriously, this shit is all over the Internet, and so often destroys useful information. What, is it not obvious how long ago 10 pm on November 4 was? If you need a precise answer, I'm sure you possess the ability to figure it out.
Oh yeah this shit pisses me off.
On some sites it is always days. Some will provide some useful data stamp like '814 days ago' so then you have to rush back and calculate what day that was.
Youtube likes years and there will be no rounding and no decimals and it will not change until it actually hits the anniversary date. So a video posted on November 6, 2017 will say 'posted two years ago' because 2 years and 2.99 years is the same amount of time to Youtube. You do get the actual date when you click on the video but damn that gets confusing when just looking through a list to find a video posted around a certain time.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 04:08:27 PM
GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.
OvB--in general I've been telling you this about Georgia for a long time, and in this specific case this AM I was saying the statements from major county didn't match the state data. :)
We talked about this regarding the problems regarding voting in the state. Georgia basically delegates all the voting process stuff to local officials and there are 159 counties (because of a state rule that no county seat can be more than a day's ride from the furthest part of the county, we have lot of counties). The state role is to basically collect vote information. So you have a bunch of local officials at various levels of incompetence, and in the case of the metro Atlanta area with a dysfunctional relationship with the state (because they are all democrats while the state officials are all republican).
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 04:19:07 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:20:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Are democrats going to lose the house?
uh. Wut?
I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.
Democrats had 232 seats. Odds seem to be that they will lose 8ish. They need 218 for a majority.
They will keep a majority but is going to be an uncomfortable one.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 04:20:00 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 05, 2020, 04:08:27 PM
GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.
OvB--in general I've been telling you this about Georgia for a long time, and in this specific case this AM I was saying the statements from major county didn't match the state data. :)
We talked about this regarding the problems regarding voting in the state. Georgia basically delegates all the voting process stuff to local officials and there are 159 counties (because of a state rule that no county seat can be more than a day's ride from the furthest part of the county, we have lot of counties). The state role is to basically collect vote information. So you have a bunch of local officials at various levels of incompetence, and in the case of the metro Atlanta area with a dysfunctional relationship with the state (because they are all democrats while the state officials are all republican).
So if you had to make a bet, who would you think is reporting correct amount of votes left to be counted?
Once Philadelphia county reports that'll put Biden over the top and they'll call it there.
It just goes to show that a super high turnout election like this, while great for democracy, is not as great for Democrats as some have theorized.
But I am less upset about losing some seats when it is because everybody turned out and they just like the other guy more than losing them in some low turnout midterm.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 04:20:59 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 04:19:07 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:20:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Are democrats going to lose the house?
uh. Wut?
I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.
Oh, sadly yes, but will still have a majority
Sadly? Gloriously!!
Stabbed in the back, it seems:
QuoteEric Trump
@EricTrump
Where is the GOP?! Our voters will never forget...
And a decent number of leading Republicans have called for the votes to just be counted. As I say, great result for the establishment GOP.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 04:26:55 PM
Stabbed in the back, it seems:
QuoteEric Trump
@EricTrump
Where is the GOP?! Our voters will never forget...
And a decent number of leading Republicans have called for the votes to just be counted. As I say, great result for the establishment GOP.
He's gonna try to burn them all down on his way out and it'll be amazing television.
Ugh. Democrats are counting their chickens before they are hatched. :mad:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/h_286851fc4737ee107951376bd3448b6a
QuotePennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey told CNN Thursday afternoon that he firmly believes there are enough uncounted votes in the Keystone State for Joe Biden to overtake President Donald Trump.
Casey predicted that Biden could overtake Trump by a 100,000 vote margin in Pennsylvania, but that it might "only reached when the vote is certified, which is down the road."
"But for the short term, no question, I think, Joe Biden will win the state," Casey, who has served in the US Senate since 2007, continued.
Casey added that he thinks Biden's Pennsylvania win is "inevitable" because the remaining vote results that have yet to be tallied reside in and around cities and are mail-in votes.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/h_cbb93ccb102ed6d8568f4cf09a4a4bef
QuoteOn an ongoing caucus call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is giving a positive assessment of the outcome of Tuesday's election, a Democratic source on the call tells CNN. This is despite House Democratic losses that likely mean she will hold a smaller majority in the new Congress.
"This was a big win," she told House Democrats, referring to Joe Biden nearing a White House win, keeping the House majority and likely gaining at least a seat in the Senate.
"We did not win every battle, but we won the war," Pelosi said, according to this source.
Pelosi said that they "recognized from the start [2020] would be a steeper climb" to hold some of their seats because House Democrats did so well in deep red districts in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ballot.
Pelosi is also talking up the importance of the two possible Georgia Senate runoffs to take back the Senate majority.
Rep. Cheri Bustos, a who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, blamed bad polling for the outcome and for the bullish predictions headed into Election Day, according to two sources on the call.
"Voters looked more like 2016 than projected," Bustos told Democrats, one of the sources said.
Pelosi, giving an upbeat assessment, tells Democrats that "we have created a mandate for Biden to lead our country in a unified way."
The source said that Pelosi is using the word "mandate" repeatedly.
The call with her members comes amid Democratic hand-wringing about what went wrong Tuesday for their congressional candidates.
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 04:24:15 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 04:20:59 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 04:19:07 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:20:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 02:41:56 PM
Are democrats going to lose the house?
uh. Wut?
I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.
Oh, sadly yes, but will still have a majority
Sadly? Gloriously!!
like, that's your opinion man.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 04:22:33 PM
So if you had to make a bet, who would you think is reporting correct amount of votes left to be counted?
I have no idea. There is no track record for any of this. The people who should know best are the local officials, but how do you square that they are telling the newspaper lower numbers than the secretary of state is reporting (that ultimately is from them)? I can come up with theories--maybe they feel pressure to show competence and that they are almost done, so give partial numbers to the local newspaper but put in proper numbers for the state reporting?
In any event, there can't be too much precision because problem ballots can still be cured tomorrow.
Some betting odds though (all for biden winning):
Pennsylvania: 88%
Nevada: 91%
Arizona: 80%
Georgia: 73%
It seems like this is basically closing out, regardless of a bit of messiness here and there.
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 04:32:13 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:44:31 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
That woman is a saint.
that's one way to look at it.
Or fictional.
You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 04:23:50 PM
It just goes to show that a super high turnout election like this, while great for democracy, is not as great for Democrats as some have theorized.
But I am less upset about losing some seats when it is because everybody turned out and they just like the other guy more than losing them in some low turnout midterm.
It has been conventional wisdom that low turnout = wins for republicans because they turn out no matter what.
But if the best turnout group is the educated, and they are flipping to the democrats, the conventional wisdom may flip some too. Realignment....
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 04:35:40 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2020, 04:32:13 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:44:31 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 05, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?
We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. :)
That woman is a saint.
that's one way to look at it.
Or fictional.
You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?
fiance implies there is another person involved.
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 04:35:40 PM
You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?
Yes, me, the person skewering AP's call for the last 24 hours, is definitely AR's fiancée. :rolleyes:
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 04:39:22 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 04:35:40 PM
You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?
Yes, me, the person skewering AP's call for the last 24 hours, is definitely AR's fiancée. :rolleyes:
Just don't tell him you know he bet 20k on this election
Her surname is Heisman iirc :cool:
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 04:40:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 04:39:22 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 05, 2020, 04:35:40 PM
You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?
Yes, me, the person skewering AP's call for the last 24 hours, is definitely AR's fiancée. :rolleyes:
Just don't tell him you know he bet 20k on this election
He did what?!?!
I don't know what the hell Pelosi is talking about. Even if Biden wins with comfy majorities in both the popular vote and the Electoral College this was not a great result for the Democrats in Congress. We needed Maine and we needed Iowa and we didn't get them. Now we need a double miracle in Georgia, and to hold on in Arizona, to merely not be totally shut down by Mitch McConnell and company. And even then can only pass things Joe Manchin III approves of and that somewhat unimpressive mandate would be the result of a complete miracle in Georgia. The probability looks like close losses in both runoffs IMO.
And we lost critical House Seats.
And we lost ground in the fight for state legislatures.
I don't think Joe has much of a mandate. Now he has worked well with his Republican colleagues in the past so maybe there is one or two dudes who might support him for something just barely right of center, I don't know.
Clearly Joe needs to get the dirt on Graham from Vlad and he will fall in line.
Might be a good idea to fly in some of the vote counters from NV to PA as consultants, teach them how to speed things up.
Down to 9,525 vote lead for Trump in Georgia.
They just have to remember to click "Upload."
So this is striking. Jr tweets this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFzr-NVkAUEh24?format=jpg&name=medium)
And within an hour Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton are tweeting about the need to support Trump and how to donate to his legal fund. Neither had been tweeting stuff like that for the last day or so.
Nate Silver thinks Nevada is nearing the point it should be called (but that Arizona should not be).
If that is so, a nightmare scenario for Fox and AP. :lol:
Maybe Pennsylvania will put Biden over the top and solve the problem for them.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 05:06:52 PM
So this is striking. Jr tweets this:
And so the race for 2024 officially begins! :lol:
Yeah I think everyone is just waiting for the inevitable Biden +1 in PA tonight and then we'll see a rush of state calls :lol:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:15:14 PM
Yi and Meri, are you reconsidering the idea that it is cool that ballots can still arrive after the polls close? I know that isn't the only (or even main) reason the count is still going, but there is something to be said for getting mail in ballots out with plenty of time, and having it be the voters responsibility to get it to election officials by election day (including in drop boxes) or to vote in person.
Two problems:
1) In a practical sense, the delayed count is destroying any mandate Biden would have had. Historically the votes are counted Tuesday, and one party loses and one wins. The losing party is demoralized, and gives the new president some leeway.
Biden would have won with about 306 electoral college votes, 52% of the vote and a 4 point margin of victory (probably). A resounding win. But instead of feeling defeated, Republicans seem to be energized, and a sizeable group thinking this is being stolen from them. McConnell is openly discussing unprecedented levels of obstructionism.
2) Imagine this becomes a close to tie vote. It comes down to Pennsylvania and the vote margin is 50 votes. You have tens of thousands of absentee ballots floating around that never got submitted. People start trying to send them in, claiming they were submitted before, maybe the post man finds some that slid under the seat in his car, etc. It is a recipe for even more chaos.
:unsure:
I don't remember stating my opinion on this one way or another, but no, I don't have a problem with the delays. I feel like everyone's legal vote should count, and these are all legal votes.
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 04:41:20 PM
I don't think Joe has much of a mandate. Now he has worked well with his Republican colleagues in the past so maybe there is one or two dudes who might support him for something just barely right of center, I don't know.
At this point, I am afraid the trick will be to buy them outright. Have bills that further social aims of the Dems, sponsored by Dems, but that pour money in Republican but winnable counties. The sort of local politics that will not make it to the national propaganda machine of Fox. Place Republican congresspeople in the untenable position to either break with the GOP in exchange for sweet Congressional money, or refuse things that are popular with GOP electorate despite the establishment (hospitals, treatment center for opioids crisis, etc.). McConnell needs to be broken, and bypassed. Historically, this sort of outright political bribery has been the way to circumvent the iron hold of political bosses.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2020, 05:06:52 PM
So this is striking. Jr tweets this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFzr-NVkAUEh24?format=jpg&name=medium)
And within an hour Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton are tweeting about the need to support Trump and how to donate to his legal fund. Neither had been tweeting stuff like that for the last day or so.
OMG this stupid family. You can tell the 2024 primaries are chief on his stupid mind.
God, the 2024 GOP primaries will be such a circus. I perversely can't wait :lol:
(the presidential election will probably be very stressful, though)
Isn't Junior the stupid one?
Quote from: celedhring on November 05, 2020, 05:21:59 PM
God, the 2024 GOP primaries will be such a circus. I perversely can't wait :lol:
(the presidential election will probably be very stressful, though)
My money is still on Trump to be the 2024 nominee.
Quote from: Liep on November 05, 2020, 05:24:12 PM
Isn't Junior the stupid one?
...who is really popular with the base.
If it's not dad, it's going to be Don Jr.
Live reports on the front indicate soldiers from the Pennsylvanian Front will be linking up in Berlin with advance elements of the Arizonan, Nevadan, and Georgian Fronts very soon.
Onward Comrades!
I'm skeptical of Don Jr.'s chances. It takes a certain rare talent to hypnotize people the way Donald has done his whole life. Being able to hypnotize people is the key to his success. Doing what the Donald has been doing without that ability would bring very predictable consequences to you.
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
:unsure:
I don't remember stating my opinion on this one way or another, but no, I don't have a problem with the delays. I feel like everyone's legal vote should count, and these are all legal votes.
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
It was back before the election, like Monday or something. Ancient history.
To be clear, obviously everyone who voted under the rules of the election at that time should have their vote count. To disallow votes received after election day that were mailed before -- when the rules said that was fine at the time -- would be egregious.
The question is theoretically what should the rules be--like for the next election.
Quote from: Liep on November 05, 2020, 05:24:12 PM
Isn't Junior the stupid one?
Eric is supposed to be the dumb one, or at least that's the way he's portrayed in SNL. :P
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 05:35:27 PM
I'm skeptical of Don Jr.'s chances. It takes a certain rare talent to hypnotize people the way Donald has done his whole life. Being able to hypnotize people is the key to his success. Doing what the Donald has been doing without that ability would bring very predictable consequences to you.
The GOP establishment has four years to pivot away from Trump and find enough dirt to make sure that family never gets close to a nomination again.
They're both chips off the old blockhead.
Classy.
QuoteDONALD Trump Jr said the US "should go to total war" and "expose the fraud and cheating" in ballots as Joe Biden nears a win today.
Taking to Twitter to air his grievances over the count on Thursday, Don Jr raged: "The best thing for America's future is for [Donald Trump] to go to total war over this election."
Don Jr posted this Twitter shortly after 5pm EST on Wednesday – which was rapidly flagged by the platform
He claimed that the purpose of this civil war would be "to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long."
"It's time to clean up this mess & stop looking like a banana republic!" Don Jr concluded his inflammatory rant this evening.
His incendiary statement was rapidly flagged by Twitter.
The social media giant warned that "some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process" and linked to their Civic Integrity Policy.
This states that users "may not use Twitter's services for the purpose of manipulating or interfering in elections or other civic processes."
"This includes posting or sharing content that may suppress participation or mislead people about when, where, or how to participate in a civic process," Twitter's statement continued.
Trump to release a statement in half an hour. A graceful concession, surely.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 05, 2020, 02:15:14 PM
Yi and Meri, are you reconsidering the idea that it is cool that ballots can still arrive after the polls close? I know that isn't the only (or even main) reason the count is still going, but there is something to be said for getting mail in ballots out with plenty of time, and having it be the voters responsibility to get it to election officials by election day (including in drop boxes) or to vote in person.
Two problems:
1) In a practical sense, the delayed count is destroying any mandate Biden would have had. Historically the votes are counted Tuesday, and one party loses and one wins. The losing party is demoralized, and gives the new president some leeway.
Biden would have won with about 306 electoral college votes, 52% of the vote and a 4 point margin of victory (probably). A resounding win. But instead of feeling defeated, Republicans seem to be energized, and a sizeable group thinking this is being stolen from them. McConnell is openly discussing unprecedented levels of obstructionism.
2) Imagine this becomes a close to tie vote. It comes down to Pennsylvania and the vote margin is 50 votes. You have tens of thousands of absentee ballots floating around that never got submitted. People start trying to send them in, claiming they were submitted before, maybe the post man finds some that slid under the seat in his car, etc. It is a recipe for even more chaos.
That's an issue of setting the post mark deadline to late. I'd be perfectly happy with a legal requirement of a post mark a week before election day. Also don't forget that in some states they're not allowed to start counting mail ins until election day.
Biscuit, what do you mean by cured ballots? Like a way to make absentee ballots with no secrecy envelope count?
Why do they call it "cured" anyway? Because some doctoring is involved?
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 06:08:15 PM
Why do they call it "cured" anyway? Because some doctoring is involved?
Obvs. They will stop at nothing to cure the disease afflicting this country.
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Both were shitty candidates. I'm happy to have voted third party again this time.
I don't think a close race is what should bug you. What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
But lost support among woman voters. It seems like we came out ahead given how we got more votes than last time.
I suspect both of those trends to reverse slightly sans Trump but we will see how it goes. He appeals and repels people in a very specific way that is not easily transferable to Ted Cruz and company.
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
Why should that bug you?
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Both were shitty candidates. I'm happy to have voted third party again this time.
I don't think a close race is what should bug you. What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
still trying to play this game eh?
Did I say it bugged me?
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:41:23 PM
Did I say it bugged me?
We all saw how Marty was getting super excited about Trump. His LGBT support in Poland was already significant.
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Both were shitty candidates. I'm happy to have voted third party again this time.
I don't think a close race is what should bug you. What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
Considering how OH went, I'm okay with you voting for Jo. :cheers:
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Both were shitty candidates. I'm happy to have voted third party again this time.
I don't think a close race is what should bug you. What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
I've seen a lot of posts by gay men who are Trump supporters. I don't know if it is a local thing/the mutuals we share or what, but it definitely seems like a "I got mine and fuck everyone else" type of attitude in place. Also, most are slightly above average in terms of wealth for the area. People valuing a few dollars more then their own health, safety, and rights or the desire to unleash the hurt and pain they went through on others has always rubbed me the wrong way and left me baffled. Especially when the groups they are now cutting off are the very, very thing shield preventing them from being the primary target once again instead of just a secondary one for a moment. It isn't like Republicans have accepted gay and lesbian people, they've just downgraded them as targets and are still a prime target for people as close to power as the vice presidency. Just... baffling. It's like Irish and Italian Americans becoming the most Conservative and hateful groups and enforcers for the current status quo as soon as they vaguely were accepted by the ruling elite. It's like if they don't yell louder and fight harder for the old masters they'll be sent back with the "lesser" groups. They've been let inside the fence, but they'll never get into the manor house from the yard yet they'll be damned if anyone else gets over the fence or let in.
Georgia now at Trump lead of 3,635
Atlanta metro is area left to still bring in votes apparently.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 07:02:25 PM
Georgia now at Trump lead of 3,635
Atlanta metro is area left to still bring in votes apparently.
He only needs 57% of the remaining votes to pull ahead. Pretty nuts.
Georgia looks close. Think it'll be the one to push Biden over the line.
QuoteI've seen a lot of posts by gay men who are Trump supporters. I don't know if it is a local thing/the mutuals we share or what, but it definitely seems like a "I got mine and fuck everyone else" type of attitude in place. Also, most are slightly above average in terms of wealth for the area. People valuing a few dollars more then their own health, safety, and rights or the desire to unleash the hurt and pain they went through on others has always rubbed me the wrong way and left me baffled....
Yeah, gay nazis seem disturbingly common these days.
In a way I guess it's a good thing. Shows how accepted being gay has become that they feel comfortable enough siding with the anti minority crowd.
But... Yup. The culture warriors have their gaze solidly on rolling a lot of things back. I don't think they'll ever reach a point where gays are in danger, trans people are their top priority. Still.... Really annoying some people can be such arse holes with the whole I got mine thing.
Back at the brexit vote time there were a significant number of Eastern Europeans voted brexit, figuring they're already in so it's time to pull up the draw bridge.
In a way this explains a lot of the working class losses to the far right. A lot of working people aren't actually left wing in any way... They're merely working class tribalists. They happen to be in the needy group so support help for the needy usually. Convince them they're merely temporarily embarrassed millionaires though...
Yeah. The recycling of the old anti gay/lesbian talking points to now be about trans people is disturbing but entirely expected. Seeing so many gay and lesbian people now using the rhetoric used against them to attack and marginalize the next group down is pretty disheartening though. I hope the UK's special brand of TERF attitudes doesn't spread but is contained and, hopefully, eliminated soon. I'm not too hopeful about that though considering a lot of the LGB Alliance and TERF group funding seems to come from rightwing groups in the US.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 07:09:35 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 07:02:25 PM
Georgia now at Trump lead of 3,635
Atlanta metro is area left to still bring in votes apparently.
He only needs 57% of the remaining votes to pull ahead. Pretty nuts.
Yeah, sorry, I had a tough time creating new ballots on short request last night.
Were are you guys seeing how many votes need to be counted by each state?
Quote from: Habbaku on November 05, 2020, 06:44:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 05:17:17 PM
I'm more upset that it's even this close. We're talking about a toddler versus an old man. This really shouldn't be that hard.
Both were shitty candidates. I'm happy to have voted third party again this time.
I don't think a close race is what should bug you. What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
Considering how OH went, I'm okay with you voting for Jo. :cheers:
Was hoping you'd approve.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 05, 2020, 07:23:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 07:09:35 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 07:02:25 PM
Georgia now at Trump lead of 3,635
Atlanta metro is area left to still bring in votes apparently.
He only needs 57% of the remaining votes to pull ahead. Pretty nuts.
Yeah, sorry, I had a tough time creating new ballots on short request last night.
Yeah ok let's not even make jokes like this under the current atmosphere :lol:
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 07:23:45 PM
Were are you guys seeing how many votes need to be counted by each state?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK8yShONfJw
Biscuit's scraper.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 07:23:45 PM
Were are you guys seeing how many votes need to be counted by each state?
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Looks like a block came in for PA. Joe needs 63,427 with 372,392 lefft.
A win in GA would take a lot of the sting out of this dud of a blue wave.
Looking good as new report from Forsyth, GA mail ballots, Biden 1400+, Trump 1,300+. In a place Trump was winning 60% of already counted votes.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 05, 2020, 07:23:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 07:09:35 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 07:02:25 PM
Georgia now at Trump lead of 3,635
Atlanta metro is area left to still bring in votes apparently.
He only needs 57% of the remaining votes to pull ahead. Pretty nuts.
Yeah, sorry, I had a tough time creating new ballots on short request last night.
They'd all be for Jorgensen anyways :rolleyes: :glare:
I'd love to see Biden top Trump's 306 from 2016. A feat which is still quite possible I believe.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 05, 2020, 06:44:33 PM
I've seen a lot of posts by gay men who are Trump supporters. I don't know if it is a local thing/the mutuals we share or what, but it definitely seems like a "I got mine and fuck everyone else" type of attitude in place. Also, most are slightly above average in terms of wealth for the area. People valuing a few dollars more then their own health, safety, and rights or the desire to unleash the hurt and pain they went through on others has always rubbed me the wrong way and left me baffled. Especially when the groups they are now cutting off are the very, very thing shield preventing them from being the primary target once again instead of just a secondary one for a moment. It isn't like Republicans have accepted gay and lesbian people, they've just downgraded them as targets and are still a prime target for people as close to power as the vice presidency. Just... baffling. It's like Irish and Italian Americans becoming the most Conservative and hateful groups and enforcers for the current status quo as soon as they vaguely were accepted by the ruling elite. It's like if they don't yell louder and fight harder for the old masters they'll be sent back with the "lesser" groups. They've been let inside the fence, but they'll never get into the manor house from the yard yet they'll be damned if anyone else gets over the fence or let in.
I don't think that well-off people are supporting Republicans because they want to save a buck on taxes. I the dynamic in play is more that people lose their empathy as they become more successful. They lose their empathy both out of arrogance, as well as out of simply losing touch with how people who are not as unfortunate live, even if they lived that lifestyle themselves not too long ago.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 05, 2020, 07:32:33 PM
I'd love to see Biden top Trump's 306 from 2016. A feat which is still quite possible I believe.
I think he can only match it, no?
Quote from: Habbaku on November 05, 2020, 07:23:23 PM
Yeah, sorry, I had a tough time creating new ballots on short request last night.
Paper ballots are a bitch, aren't they? :( I hope these crazy times will be over soon, and we'll get back to voting on machines protected by "12345" passwords.
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
It's the same stuff he has been saying for years.
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
He looked knackered.
I like that all the reporting of what trump is saying is being kept very low key and being sure to pull no punches, rather than sitting on the fence and going "there is yet to be proof of any fraud", outright saying "this is a lie".
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
I had it on, but I literally fell asleep as soon as he started.
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
(https://i.imgur.com/JDJX3nv.jpg)
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 07:39:20 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 05, 2020, 07:23:23 PM
Yeah, sorry, I had a tough time creating new ballots on short request last night.
Paper ballots are a bitch, aren't they? :( I hope these crazy times will be over soon, and we'll get back to voting on machines protected by "12345" passwords.
My hand hurts. Switching to southpaw for a bit started to make the signatures look weird and I don't think that we have that many registered voters with cerebral palsy, so I stopped after a couple hundred.
Also, fuck you, the passwords were changed to "Kemp2022!" last year.
Trump leads by 63,000
250,000 ballots left in PA.
Biden has been getting 75% of said mail in ballots so far.
You guys do the math.
Make me.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 08:08:34 PM
Trump leads by 63,000
250,000 ballots left in PA.
Biden has been getting 75% of said mail in ballots so far.
You guys do the math.
61,000 vote Biden victory. Assuming he continues getting 75% of course.
I see 370,000 not 250,000...
But either way.
Okay, for Trump to win he needs both Georgia and Pennsylvania and either Nevada and or Arizona. Every other scenario causes Biden to win (I wasn't counting North Carolina-that seems like a given for Trump).
This is a very possible scenario. Trump leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia but weirdly Biden's people think they will win. Biden leads Nevada and Arizona but the margins are so then and the number of uncounted ballots is so high I don't don't think you can even say they really lean either way.
The idea that Biden could win in Georgia seems preposterous to me, but everyone seems to think Biden has a shot.
Jesus Christ, I'm nervous. Like so nervous that I'm in pain.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 05, 2020, 08:23:02 PM
Okay, for Trump to win he needs both Georgia and Pennsylvania and either Nevada and or Arizona. Every other scenario causes Biden to win (I wasn't counting North Carolina-that seems like a given for Trump).
This is a very possible scenario. Trump leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia but weirdly Biden's people think they will win. Biden leads Nevada and Arizona but the margins are so then and the number of uncounted ballots is so high I don't don't think you can even say they really lean either way.
The idea that Biden could win in Georgia seems preposterous to me, but everyone seems to think Biden has a shot.
Jesus Christ, I'm nervous. Like so nervous that I'm in pain.
NV is a done deal. There is no path for Trump there. So Trump really has to get all three remaining states, Biden getting any one of them is game over. AZ may look legitimately questionable, but surely one of PA or GA has to not have a massive fuck-up that would mess up the math indicating that Biden would eventually take the lead.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 04, 2020, 03:51:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 04, 2020, 03:10:07 PM
Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting? We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we? Maybe it's a horrifically high number.
I have a suspicion that the reason is Covid. The Biden campaign was loath to do the normal things like drag people to the polls on election day out of fear of spreading Covid. Trump's people had no such fear as they don't seem to value human life.
So I wasn't the only one to think this. I read something about how the lack of canvassing, etc pretty much deep-sixed Democratic efforts in Houston.
I hate math.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 08:20:35 PM
I see 370,000 not 250,000...
But either way.
Sorry that was number thrown out by the numbers guy Kornacki(sp?) on MSNBC
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 08:08:34 PM
Trump leads by 63,000
250,000 ballots left in PA.
Biden has been getting 75% of said mail in ballots so far.
You guys do the math.
CNN dude says Biden has to pull an average of 63% to catch and pass Trump. He's been exceeding that with ease.
And there is about 28k ballots that cannot be counted until 5 tomorrow, local time
In Pennsylvania a crowd of Trump supporters is chanting "stop the count." In Arizona a crowd is chanting "count all votes."
Deplorables.
Not the brightest bulbs
Have any senior active Republican politicains yet come out and said in effect ' preserving the democratic election process is more important than the result this time' ?
Clayton County, GA has 5,726 outstanding absentee votes. Biden is getting around 80% of the vote in Clayton County.
Right now, Trump is only up in the entire state of Georgia by around 2,500 votes.
:hmm:
Yeah last I saw there are three counties totaling iirc 15,000 votes that have been trending Biden in ballots already counted. And two with like 5,600 outstanding ballots that have been favoring Trump.
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 09:18:50 PM
Yeah last I saw there are three counties totaling iirc 15,000 votes that have been trending Biden in ballots already counted. And two with like 5,600 outstanding ballots that have been favoring Trump.
Where are you getting your info about which counties are left?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:25:25 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 09:18:50 PM
Yeah last I saw there are three counties totaling iirc 15,000 votes that have been trending Biden in ballots already counted. And two with like 5,600 outstanding ballots that have been favoring Trump.
Where are you getting your info about which counties are left?
MSNBC and Kornacki.
And per him, sounds like Arizona will be quiet till 11am EST with next batch of votes.
Joe down to 46,257 in AZ after a big chunk broke 57/43 for Donaldo.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:25:25 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 09:18:50 PM
Yeah last I saw there are three counties totaling iirc 15,000 votes that have been trending Biden in ballots already counted. And two with like 5,600 outstanding ballots that have been favoring Trump.
Where are you getting your info about which counties are left?
The tidbit I shared came RIGHT NOW from CNN, RIGHT NOW.
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 09:36:27 PM
The tidbit I shared came RIGHT NOW from CNN, RIGHT NOW.
I mean, approximately when did you get that tidbit? Ballpark, give or take.
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 09:36:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:25:25 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 09:18:50 PM
Yeah last I saw there are three counties totaling iirc 15,000 votes that have been trending Biden in ballots already counted. And two with like 5,600 outstanding ballots that have been favoring Trump.
Where are you getting your info about which counties are left?
The tidbit I shared came RIGHT NOW from CNN, RIGHT NOW.
Howitzer Explosion Guy still at it?
1902 in GA.! :w00t:
PA 42,142 :yeah:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:41:40 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 09:36:27 PM
The tidbit I shared came RIGHT NOW from CNN, RIGHT NOW.
I mean, approximately when did you get that tidbit? Ballpark, give or take.
Pretty much right before I posted it.
I'll be damned. I'm starting to get a little bit hopful.
If the Republicans run a competent, sane candidate, this probably would have been a red landslide.
Trump mirrors Selina.
Spoiler if you haven't already seen Veep but I assume everyone has
https://youtu.be/kntpywGl5ak
GA 1,797 :menace:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 05, 2020, 10:10:12 PM
If the Republicans run a competent, sane candidate, this probably would have been a red landslide.
You just don't get the Trump phenomenon if you think a bland conventional candidate would do better. Did you step out of a time machine from 2015 and miss the past five years? All those dudes lost. Trump crushed them. And the viable candidates that remain are all Trump types now.
There are few bland conventional types you love but they are outsiders.
At least right now. I have no idea what the Republican Party looks like in the future.
But you cannot be both a competent sane candidate and generate massive amounts of populist furor.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
If Trump was a Democrat and he was running against some ancient establishment Republican from the 1990s I would be rooting for that dude as well.
I'm definitely not looking forward to all the ads I'll get in 2024.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 10:25:47 PM
I'm definitely not looking forward to all the ads I'll get in 2024.
Let's make it to 2024 first before we start worrying about it.
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
If Trump were a Dem, I would be a rabid Republican.
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 10:34:25 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 10:25:47 PM
I'm definitely not looking forward to all the ads I'll get in 2024.
Let's make it to 2024 first before we start worrying about it.
It's a certainty. Georgia is a swing state now.
Well I just said I would so...
If the last block of votes is any indication, Biden will carry AZ by the skin of one voter's teeth. Not all their teeth, just a handful of them.
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
If Trump were a Dem, I would be a rabid Republican.
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
I wouldn't be a rabid Republican, but I would be a rabid anti-Democrat. I'm not exactly a barometer, though, I fall squarely into anti-woke pragmatic wing.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:41:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 10:39:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:36:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:44:48 PM
PA 42,142 :yeah:
41,305 :area52:
36500!
36572 :glare:
26,319
That last PA block broke 79/21. :ccr
I mean the block before Hose's double secret probation block.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:33:17 PM
Joe down to 46,257 in AZ after a big chunk broke 57/43 for Donaldo.
46,667 :pope:
Were they saving up all those blocks for prime time in PA?
Quote from: Caliga on November 05, 2020, 09:16:47 PM
Clayton County, GA has 5,726 outstanding absentee votes. Biden is getting around 80% of the vote in Clayton County.
:hmm:
And with that, Trump's prayers for reelection are gone with the wind.
If he keeps AZ & NV and flips PA and GA that's 306 EV. Same as Trump in 2016
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 10:38:04 PM
It's a certainty. Georgia is a swing state now.
We will see how the senate elections go.
This year, it went for a democrat in an election that may not be very close in the electoral college and probably was 4 points more republican than the country at large.
Bigger picture, it currently has a congressional delegation with 9 republicans and 5 democrats, 2 republican senators, a republican governor, I think every elected state position is a republican, a republican state house, and a republican state senate.
I mean we know it is a swing state in a Trump election. We will see how it looks in future elections.
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
If Trump were a Dem, I would be a rabid Republican.
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
I've always straddled the line, so it wouldn't be a big leap for me. But I mean.. Trump?? Ugh...
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
:huh:
It might not swing that way?
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
If Trump were a Dem, I would be a rabid Republican.
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
I wouldn't be a rabid Republican, but I would be a rabid anti-Democrat. I'm not exactly a barometer, though, I fall squarely into anti-woke pragmatic wing.
Fair enough. I actually believe you. You are ultra partisan, but it comes from a position of calculus.
What would a left-wing version of Trump even look like?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 11:11:26 PM
What would a left-wing version of Trump even look like?
Just like Trump. It's not like he has any ideology anyway.
The left would need some serious prep work laid for that to work though. Like maybe 20 years of MoveOn.org from the Shrubbery Presidency taking over the Party somehow.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 11:11:26 PM
What would a left-wing version of Trump even look like?
Trump but back when he was a Democrat. 25 years ago Trump.
Although the identity politics woke left is pretty terrifying in their own way.
No se. Numbers guy hasn't been on last 15 mins or so.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 11:11:26 PM
What would a left-wing version of Trump even look like?
Charismatic woke leftist imposing cancel culture and Lysenkoism from above.
Quote from: DGuller on November 05, 2020, 11:21:58 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2020, 11:11:26 PM
What would a left-wing version of Trump even look like?
Charismatic woke leftist imposing cancel culture and Lysenkoism from above.
Those first three seem like an oxymoron when put together.
Man I am so excited for this to wrap up tomorrow.
(https://i.imgur.com/BoWewsE.jpg)
I know it doesn't win elections but...
Biden has nearly 4 million more votes than Trump. :D
Quote from: katmai on November 05, 2020, 10:43:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:41:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 10:39:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:36:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 09:44:48 PM
PA 42,142 :yeah:
41,305 :area52:
36500!
36572 :glare:
26,319
24,484 :bowler: Great day. One of the best of my life.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 05, 2020, 11:39:13 PM
Horse drawn ballots from Lee Stuart Bedford Forrest County
It included 500 write in votes for John C Breckinridge
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
If Trump were a Dem, I would be a rabid Republican.
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
They'd all claim they voted Green, just as those who voted Trump claim they voted Libertarian.
the bad Georgia drop came from Forsyth County which voted 66-33 Trump overall. So a close to 50-50 split is not bad for Biden there.
There is one other Trumpy county with significant ballot nos left - Laurens County with 1797 outstanding. Taylor is another Trump county with 456 and Floyd at 444. this is per GA SoS as of a couple hours ago.
There are 4000 from Clayton County trickling in slowly - this is a 85-14 Biden County so there is enough there to carry Biden over assuming he doesn't lose much ground from Laurens.
There are also 4800 in Gwinett and 800 in Cobb - both Biden counties.
Basically of the outstanding:
2700 from Trump counties that went 2-1+ for trump - but because these are mail-ins Biden can reasonable hope for mid40s or better.
4000 from Clayton an 85-15 Biden county
5600 from w 2 high 50s Biden counties that have been splitting high 60s/low 70s for mail ins.
Assuming the nos are accurately reported, Biden should pull safely ahead tomorrow.
However there are still 5000+ military ballots and another 7000 overseas to be counted.
Gingrich is on Fox News asking Barr to arrest election workers in Philadelphia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-democrats-pelosi-election/2020/11/05/1ddae5ca-1f6e-11eb-90dd-abd0f7086a91_story.html
QuoteCentrist House Democrats lash out at liberal colleagues, blame far-left views for costing the party seats
An angry dispute erupted among House Democrats on Thursday, with centrist members blasting their liberal colleagues during a private conference call for pushing far-left views that cost the party seats in Tuesday's election that they had worked hard to win two years ago.
The bitter exchange, which lasted more than three hours as members sniped back and forth over tactics and ideology, reflected the extent to which the 2020 campaign exposed simmering tensions in the party even as its presidential nominee, Joe Biden, stands on the brink of achieving their biggest goal of the year — ousting President Trump.
Party leaders had expressed certainty that Trump's divisiveness and mishandling of the pandemic would help them expand their majority with wins in GOP-held districts — and yet they lost at least a half-dozen seats and failed to retake the Senate. The explanation laid out by centrists, according to multiple people who were on the call and spoke on the condition of anonymity, is that Republicans were easily able to paint them all as socialists and radical leftists who endorse far-left positions such as defunding the police.
"We need to not ever use the word 'socialist' or 'socialism' ever again. . . . We lost good members because of that," Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who narrowly leads in her reelection bid, said heatedly. "If we are classifying Tuesday as a success . . . we will get f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Other centrists, including Rep. Marc Veasey of Texas, made similar points. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Florida Democrat who suffered an unexpected loss to a Republican challenger, argued through tears that the party's infighting on Twitter needs to stop.
Liberals, meanwhile, fired back. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, argued that Democrats shouldn't single out people and ideas that energize the party base. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a self-described democratic socialist, grew angry, accusing her colleagues of only being interested in appealing to White people in suburbia.
"To be real, it sounds like you are saying stop pushing for what Black folks want," she said.
Democrats are poised to hold the smallest majority in 18 years, undercutting the leverage of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The rancor on Thursday's call is certain to be more pronounced next year as the party faces the tougher task of uniting to pass legislation.
During the call, Pelosi sought to reassure her members that the election wasn't as bad as it seemed. Democrats, she argued, have held on to about 70 percent of the 30 Trump-carried districts they won in 2018 — and she predicted they would capture the White House.
"We held the House. Joe Biden is on a clear path to be the next president of the United States," she said. "We did not win every battle, but we did win the war."
Pelosi even held out hope of taking control of the Senate, pointing to two likely runoffs in Georgia where Democrats will be severe underdogs. Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.), however, cautioned that if Democrats run on socialized medicine and defunding the police, "we're not going to win" those races.
In the aftermath of their unexpected losses, Democrats argued that the party needs to come to terms with a bigger problem: Republicans have successfully cast the most vulnerable Democrats as "socialists" and tied them to liberal ideas, including Medicare-for-all, the Green New Deal and cutting police budgets.
It didn't matter that Biden, House Democratic leadership and most members have rejected calls to "defund the police," a position that got lost in attack ads.
The attacks, moderates warned, have proved salient and powerful — and Democrats need to figure out a way to address them now.
"Democrats' messaging is terrible; it doesn't resonate," Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, said in an interview. "When [voters] see the far left that gets all the news media attention, they get scared. They're very afraid that this will become a supernanny state, and their ability to do things on their own is going to be taken away."
The blame game extended beyond the liberal members. Several moderate Democrats said in interviews that Pelosi should have made a deal with the Trump administration on a coronavirus relief package. Many moderates had been pushing her to compromise, fearful that constituents would blame them as Democratic leadership was unwilling to give Trump a legislative victory before the election.
Pelosi has said she was holding out for a better deal and that politics had nothing to do with it. Trump, she argued, wasn't backing policies that address voters' needs — but to centrists, that was just an excuse to say no.
"It made us look like obstructionists instead of those up for the challenge the country needs," said one lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly. "That was a huge mistake. Trump was like, 'I'm ready for a deal, make it bigger!' and Pelosi was obstructing."
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who nearly lost her seat, is also facing members' wrath. On the call, Bustos defended her operation, arguing that Republicans were forced to "spend tens of millions of dollars playing defense, deep into their territory in Arkansas, Montana, Alaska, Missouri, Indiana, western North Carolina, and more." But she also offered sympathy.
"I also want to say the thing we're all feeling: I'm furious," she said. "Something went wrong here across the entire political world. Our polls, Senate polls, gov polls, presidential polls, Republican polls, public polls, turnout modeling and prognosticators all pointed to one political environment — that environment never materialized."
She added: "I want answers, and my team is already planning how we go and get those answers. I look forward to talking them through with you."
Privately, Democrats in interviews over the past two days have said the answer is obvious. The party in recent years has moved further left, with some members embracing such liberal ideas as free college, the Green New Deal, eliminating the Senate filibuster and adding justices to the Supreme Court. Many of the House's rank and file support those policies, though Pelosi and the DCCC have done their utmost to steer the caucus away from those ideas and keep them from advancing in the House.
At the same time, one member noted that 130 House Democrats faced primaries this cycle, with such groups as Justice Democrats defeating establishment Democrats and seeking to punish members who aren't liberal enough.
"There is no question that that was a huge albatross on the necks of so many of our candidates, who unfortunately went down," said a lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private discussions. "There has to be a reckoning within our ranks about this because a lot of Justice Democrats don't give a damn about the Democratic Party. . . . They're all about purity and orthodoxy, and it is damaging our opportunities."
In response, Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats, blamed the House Democrats for their own failures.
"They had one job and they blew it," she said in a statement for this story. "We need a Democratic Party that stands for something more than just being anti-Trump."
The frustration was evident during the Thursday call, when moderates who won in Trump districts vented about how the use of some language on the left — such as the word "socialism" — is causing problems with those in middle America. But Jayapal, speaking for many Progressive Caucus members, argued that Democrats have had the highest turnout in urban areas in years, including among people of color.
Democrats lost in 2016, she continued, because they didn't turn out the base.
Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), a centrist who barely won his seat on Election Day, agreed with Spanberger, however.
"Spanberger was talking about something many of us are feeling today: We pay the price for these unprofessional and unrealistic comments about a number of issues, whether it is about the police or shale gas," Lamb said. "These issues are too serious for the people we represent to tolerate them being talked about so casually."
Even some liberals agreed with their moderate colleagues that the language being embraced by the far left needs to change. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a member of the Progressive Caucus who supports universal health care, said the party needs to stop using the word "socialist" altogether.
"I think Republicans did get some traction trying to scare people on this 'socialist narrative.' . . . That was a shrewd play from them," he said in an interview. "These labels do distract us and divide us in unfortunate ways. . . . What's the point of embracing a phrase like that? All you do is feed into these fears and bogus narratives."
In swing districts, Republicans spent millions of dollars on ads seeking to tie Democrats to the "defund the police" movement that virtually none supported. In New York, Republicans ran commercials showing a clip of Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) joining a Black Lives Matter march protesting police brutality.
Rose opposes the movement to defund the police, but Republicans accused him of essentially leading the charge to take money from police departments. Rose is trailing his Republican opponent by more than 15 percentage points, with 95 percent of the votes tallied, according to the Associated Press.
Something similar happened to Rep. Anthony Brindisi in Upstate New York. "Cop hater," Republican attack ads said of him after he likewise joined a protest for equality in criminal justice. Brindisi, who tried to fight back against the charge, is down by more than 10 points, according to the Associated Press, though his race hasn't been called.
The saliency of the "socialist" messaging may be one where both parties agree. Republicans in multiple news conferences and conversations with reporters this week have cited the Democrats' move to the left for their unexpected misfortunes.
"Democrats lost these races because you can't outspend crazy and dangerous ideas like defunding the police, Medicare-for-all and eliminating hundreds of thousands of Texas energy jobs," said Rep. Kevin Brady (Tex.), the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee.
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
Quote from: Berkut on November 05, 2020, 10:37:39 PM
I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
What would a "left wing version of Trump" entail? Taxing the rich excessively instead of giving them tax breaks? Being incredibly welcoming to immigrants instead of putting them in cages and dramatically reducing their numbers? Being very pro-LGBTQ? Being all about defunding the police? Being a big fan of global alliances and working with the UN? Opening condoning and agreeing with the underlying tenets of the antifa movement? Advocating for freedom from religious intrusion in government? Advocating for women's equality and the #mettomovement? I mean, all of those total flips I would be 100% in support of. That's why I'm curious what you mean.
A week ago I would've said that watching number tick over for two days straight is not that exciting. Today I'm sitting here watching the numbers tick over, and I'm amazed at how right I would've been a week ago. :zzz Come on, Pennsylvania, just finish it off already, we all know the election is getting called the moment Joe is +1 there.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
I have a transcript - certain words and phrases have been translated to plain English:
QuoteNEWT GINGRICH: My hope is that President Trump will lead the millions of Americans who understand exactly what's going on. Black people in cities are being allowed to tabulate votes, and we should not allow them to do that.
First of all, under federal law, black people should not be allowed to tabulate votes unless there is a white man with a gun standing over him. You stop somebody from pointing a gun at a black election voter, you just broke federal law Do you quietly get on with your business and do your job counting votes? You just broke federal law, especially if your are black and live in a city.. You bring in ballots that other black people mailed in under Georgia law? You just broke federal law.
I am sick and tired of corrupt left-wing Democrats who believe that we are too timid and too easy to intimidate, and therefore, "Let us go and count votes from black people," and that's exactly -- no one should have any doubt, you are watching an effort to allow black people to have a vote in who wins the presidency of the United States.
And this is not about Donald Trump. This is about the American white people. The American white people have the right in an honest white election with honest white ballots to pick their leader, or are we now just sheep to be dominated by a democracy of all the people? And are we supposed to surrender to a free and equal democracy?
So, I think this is one of the great -- this is a crisis in the white supremacist American system comparable to Lee at Appomattox or comparable to Wallace losing in 68. This is a genuine deep crisis of our supremacy over the other races.
SEAN HANNITY (HOST): So, what is the answer, now that the law's been violated and black people have been allowed to vote and count votes? Doesn't it render the vote illegitimate?
GINGRICH: The first answer -- the first answer is for the attorney. Look, the attorney general this afternoon issued an order that federal agents can carry guns in the pursuit of black people who are counting votes. That's a signal.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 06, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
I don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 06, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
There was ranked choice on the ballot in MA, but it failed pretty badly. Big shot Democrats actually supported it. Ranked choice would go a long way towards changing the system so that it doesn't prevent viable third parties.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:27:02 AM
I don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.
The system absolutely prevents it, it has nothing to do with tradition and intertia. In our current system, a non-joke third party would either catastrophically split the vote with the next closest party, or it would quickly replace one of the other two parties. The first-past-the-post system promotes duopoly.
In order for there to be a viable third party a large number of states need to adopt Maine's ranked choice voting. If we had that then suddenly other parties would start getting lots of votes from people.
(https://i.redd.it/d5qj96uw3jx51.jpg)
For context, the Trump campaign has a bunch a lawsuits out in a number of states including the remaining battle ground states and most notably Penn. There is, however, a huge disconnect between the insane and incendiary lies the campaign and Trump are saying in public and what they are alleging in the lawsuits. The lawsuits are mostly about small ticky-tacky stuff like the total number of authorized observers and the distance requirements for the observers. The biggest cases in potential impact are the one challenging the postmarked ballots that arrive after election day in Penn and the challenge to the reprinted ballots in Alleghany - however, it seems a near certainty that Biden will prevail without these.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 01:30:42 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:27:02 AM
I don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.
The system absolutely prevents it, it has nothing to do with tradition and intertia. In our current system, a non-joke third party would either catastrophically split the vote with the next closest party, or it would quickly replace one of the other two parties. The first-past-the-post system promotes duopoly.
Fair enough, but that leads me to another point - get rid of FPTP. Or change it in a way that represents the broad electorate better. We do that in German federal elections. You have two votes: one for the local candidate race in the district who automatically wins a seat. The second vote for a party list which then allocates the party's seats in parliament. If a party wins 10 seats per list vote and wins 7 FTPT seats, the remaining three are filled form the list (unfortunately it means if a party wins 10 direct seats and 7 list seats, the parliament size is increased to such a point that the list % seats reaches 10). Our state chamber is filled with members of the state governments - but to be fair, the state chamber in Germany is nowhere near as powerful as the US Senate.
Speaking of power - it's an outside layperson's perspective, but has the presidency had a lot of power creep over the decades/centuries? Should something be done about that? :unsure:
(I'm well aware that there's not likely to be any changes to the US system any time soon. I understand that one of the thoughts behind it was to avoid a tyranny of the majority and therefore safeguards were put in place to ensure smaller electorates and smaller states have leverage.
However, the GOP strategy now seems to be built around a tyranny of the minority at this point where they get enough support from those states that have comparatively more impact per vote to govern effectively against the majority of the nation - this can also not be a good thing in the long run.)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 01:10:36 AM
However there are still 5000+ military ballots and another 7000 overseas to be counted.
Heh. Trump should dominate the first set. It might be up to the Democrats Abroad to win it for Joe in Georgia.
In NY there is a fusion system, which is a little complicated, but it allows candidates to represent multiple parties simultaneously. The idea is that someone can show their support for Working Families Party while still not wasting a vote, because a Working Families Party candidate would usually be a Democratic candidate. For example, in this election, 4.5% of the voters in NY voted for Joe Biden under the Working Families Party ticket rather than Democratic ticket.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:40:17 AM
Fair enough, but that leads me to another point - get rid of FPTP.
As I said, Massachusetts tried just this year. Democrats supported it. It didn't pass. FPTP absolutely should go, no argument there.
1,267 in Georgia.
18,229 in Pennsylvania.
Last batch in GA went 91% for Biden. Nice job, Habbaku. :cheers:
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:40:38 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 01:10:36 AM
However there are still 5000+ military ballots and another 7000 overseas to be counted.
Heh. Trump should dominate the first set. It might be up to the Democrats Abroad to win it for Joe in Georgia.
It's looking like Biden will end up ahead 2000-3000 when everything comes in except the military and overseas. So it could come down to that.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 06, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
That would basically mean that the Center party will buckle to whatever demands the crazy Trump party would make in order to give their support. We've seen that in European countries where conservatives are basically enabling fascists just to stay in power a bit longer.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/774160214031204352/20201106_083345.jpg)
(https://i.redd.it/pkzh2l71thx51.jpg)
:lmfao:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/05/trump-biden-election-live-updates/#link-6HGNLHMXEZGURAMI7JQI2RZEM4
QuoteGraham, Cruz and others rally to Trump's defense after being called out by president's sons
By Colby Itkowitz
After Trump's sons and others in the president's immediate orbit complained that not enough Republicans were speaking out in defense of the president's unsubstantiated claims of election corruption, several prominent Republicans publicly echoed Trump's rhetoric.
When Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who won reelection, was mentioned on Twitter by name for staying silent about the results, Donald Trump Jr. tweeted back, "No one is surprised."
Several hours later, Graham was on Fox News with Sean Hannity, where he falsely claimed that the election had been rigged. The senator, one of Trump's closest allies on Capitol Hill, said he would be donating $500,000 to Trump's legal fund, prompting Eric Trump to tweet: "Thank you for having a spine! Fight this fraud!"
Graham also told Hannity that he was open to the idea of the GOP-controlled Pennsylvania legislature choosing its own electors, overriding the will of the voters.
After Graham's segment, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) appeared with Hannity and accused the Democrats of trying to steal the election from Trump.
Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville, who defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.), made similar allegations, tweeting the same conspiracy theory that the legal counting of mail-in ballots for Biden is proof of corruption.
"The election results are out of control. It's like the whistle has blown, the game is over and the players have gone home, but the referees are suddenly adding touchdowns to the other team's side of the scoreboard," the former football coach said.
Earlier in the day, Trump's sons began tweeting about the lack of Republican support, specifically warning anyone who might consider running for president in 2024 that Trump voters wouldn't forget their silence.
Per MSNBC Trump's lead is down to 665 votes in Georgia..good on you Habbu
And there it is.
Quote from: Trump on TwitterU.S. Supreme Court should decide!
Quote from: Maladict on November 06, 2020, 03:09:23 AM
And there it is.
Quote from: Trump on TwitterU.S. Supreme Court should decide!
Censored on Twitter and unshareable. His own guy admitted that they had non-zero people overseeing the counting.
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2020, 06:33:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 05, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.
But lost support among woman voters. It seems like we came out ahead given how we got more votes than last time.
I suspect both of those trends to reverse slightly sans Trump but we will see how it goes. He appeals and repels people in a very specific way that is not easily transferable to Ted Cruz and company.
And, from my understanding, all of this analysis is based on exit polls of election day voters (who as we've seen are overwhelmingly more Trump). As someone put it on Twitter:
"Twitter yesterday: Polling is dead, cancel the quants
Twitter today: Exit polls reveal third-generation Uzbeks from the Ottumwa exurbs betrayed us by 1.7 points"
I don't think we should be placing much weight on that exit poll. It's probably best to wait for a deeper analysis of all voters including early and mail-in voters.
I think we can say that Trump did better with some Latinos (and the striking thing here is basically all of the increased turnout went to Trump - so they may have done very well in GOTV) and Biden is doing far, far better with suburban voters. That's clear from the NYT map of trends - but that's about it (it's a very confusing map). I think we should see where things lay when there's proper analysis because in a lot of ways this is a very unique election.
Quote
A win in GA would take a lot of the sting out of this dud of a blue wave.
I mean as I say it looks like a transitional map - the Dems win back their blue wall states, but if they get Georgia and Arizona, then it feels like their sun belt hopes might be paying off. It's that strategic choice from 2018: rebuild the heartands or chase the suburbs. Because I think the politics of those look quite different.
QuoteI don't think that well-off people are supporting Republicans because they want to save a buck on taxes. I the dynamic in play is more that people lose their empathy as they become more successful. They lose their empathy both out of arrogance, as well as out of simply losing touch with how people who are not as unfortunate live, even if they lived that lifestyle themselves not too long ago.
One other possibility is that Trump is the first GOP candidate who has made any effort to win LGBT votes. He's got gay people in his administration - they did the Trump pride event. It may be that there were always some LGBT voters who wanted to and would vote Republican if Republicans made any outreach or attempt to not make beating up on the rights of gay people (not trans) a core part of their pitch.
What I've found striking is that all of that's happened with a candidate who evangelicals consider more "their guy" than anyone since W.
Quote
In Pennsylvania a crowd of Trump supporters is chanting "stop the count." In Arizona a crowd is chanting "count all votes."
:lol: I know.
QuoteHave any senior active Republican politicains yet come out and said in effect ' preserving the democratic election process is more important than the result this time' ?
A lot of senior Republicans, including Pence have basically said that the votes should be counted.
QuoteI wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....
Can't speak for the Yanks but I couldn't vote for Corbyn - so I voted Green :goodboy:
QuoteBigger picture, it currently has a congressional delegation with 9 republicans and 5 democrats, 2 republican senators, a republican governor, I think every elected state position is a republican, a republican state house, and a republican state senate.
But it also feels like their state party has been doing work to build up Georgia as a competitive state unlike, say, Florida :bleeding: <_<
QuoteI don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.
The system's a big part of it I think - it forces big tent/coalition based parties. US politics would look very different if they had, say a French system of electing Presidents with a run-off.
Truly amazing how down to the wire this is going. Fingers crossed.
Trump already has more votes than Obama in 2008, which so far has been the highest number of a winner.
69,655,365 (Trump 2020) vs. 69,498,516 (Obama 2008).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/774189367374774282/FB_IMG_1604651305566.jpg)
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 03:50:37 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/774189367374774282/FB_IMG_1604651305566.jpg)
Why is the world so dense?
The Swing vs. 2016 Margin plot is very blue.
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker
Quote from: mongers on November 05, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
Any reactions to the Trump White house televised statement?
As with his election night statement, he knows he's lost and this is how he'll lose: as a victim. He really won, but it was stolen from him and he was stabbed in the back by his party, his courts etc.
Quote from: Liep on November 06, 2020, 04:11:02 AM
The Swing vs. 2016 Margin plot is very blue.
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker
Encouraging.
This looks like it could become violent.
:nelson:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFsDsmWoAEcfBt?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFsDsdWkAE90Mw?format=jpg&name=small)
GA Presidential Election Results - Biden takes the Lead
Biden (D): 49.39.% ( 2,449,371 votes)
Trump (R): 49.37% ( 2,448,454 votes)
Biden Margin: (+917)
Estimated: > 99% votes in
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324643210283593728?
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 06, 2020, 04:27:05 AM
GA Presidential Election Results - Biden takes the Lead
Biden (D): 49.39.% ( 2,449,371 votes)
Trump (R): 49.37% ( 2,448,454 votes)
Biden Margin: (+917)
Estimated: > 99% votes in
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324643210283593728?
Nice work Habs.
I did notice Katmai is lagging behind though.
"Isn't it weird that thousands of votes were cast in name of dead people? If it happened here there'd be such a scandal" - Orban reflects on the US election on the radio this morning.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 04:29:53 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 06, 2020, 04:27:05 AM
GA Presidential Election Results - Biden takes the Lead
Biden (D): 49.39.% ( 2,449,371 votes)
Trump (R): 49.37% ( 2,448,454 votes)
Biden Margin: (+917)
Estimated: > 99% votes in
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324643210283593728?
Nice work Habs.
I did notice Katmai is lagging behind though.
sorry was taking shower and grabbing midnight snack.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 04:35:28 AM
"Isn't it weird that thousands of votes were cast in name of dead people? If it happened here there'd be such a scandal" - Orban reflects on the US election on the radio this morning.
Obvious bollocks, not unexpected.
But I do wonder on this, with things being so tight. What if someone votes by post the week before the election and dies before election day?
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 04:53:55 AM
But I do wonder on this, with things being so tight. What if someone votes by post the week before the election and dies before election day?
I don't think it's that tight :P
My guess is it would depend on the state rules. In the UK there's no check the point is that we count the ballots that were valid at the time they were cast rather than checking if they remain valid at the time they are counted (the other issue could be if someone becomes a prisoner, a lunatic, or a member of the royal family after casting their postal ballot). Given the numbers of people who request postal ballots and that they're particularly popular amoung the elderly (who also turn out most), there's probably a few thousand votes every election year that were made by dead people. And, of course, it's more than possible that someone could vote in person, step out the community centre and get run down by a bus.
But also any way to cure this issue would probably create bigger problems because it wouldn't be a secret ballot any more if we were to identify x ballot with y person and check that they haven't subsequently died.
There have also been dead candidates, some have even won their election, because when they died it was too late to remove them from the ballot.
:lol:
https://twitter.com/NicholasGuyatt/status/1324652192633151489?s=20
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmHGcEtXIAE95iA?format=jpg&name=medium)
I do like this meme:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmGoW49WMAYObOJ?format=jpg&name=medium)
:lol:
Who dat
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 05:18:25 AM
Who dat
The Philadelphia Flyers mascot, Gritty - who has been providing exactly the sort of chaotic look and energy of the last four years:
QuotePhiladelphia Flyers mascot Gritty accused of punching child
Popular orange-haired mascot accused of punching teenager
Police confirm 'active and on-going' investigation of assault
:lol:
Edit: Gritty also became like an anti-pepe the frog online for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/nov/27/gritty-flyers-mascot-antifa-pepe-the-frog
It's Gritty, mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers hockey team and working class hero.
(https://www.dailydot.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-23-at-11.28.24-AM.png)
So Biden's now ahead by 10k in Georgia which is looking almost finished. Obviously Georgia (and probably Arizona) will be very close and go to recounts. But if that lead holds and Biden wins Georgia there is no way Trump can win outright and the best he could hope for is 269-269 (even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona).
Where are you seeing 10k in Georgia?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 05:06:39 AM
:lol:
https://twitter.com/NicholasGuyatt/status/1324652192633151489?s=20
:lmfao:
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 05:46:27 AM
Where are you seeing 10k in Georgia?
Not entirely sure it was just someone posting figures so there is a strong risk I may have got that wrong through bad mental math :o :Embarrass:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 05:20:55 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 05:18:25 AM
Who dat
The Philadelphia Flyers mascot, Gritty - who has been providing exactly the sort of chaotic look and energy of the last four years:
QuotePhiladelphia Flyers mascot Gritty accused of punching child
Popular orange-haired mascot accused of punching teenager
Police confirm 'active and on-going' investigation of assault
:lol:
Edit: Gritty also became like an anti-pepe the frog online for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/nov/27/gritty-flyers-mascot-antifa-pepe-the-frog
Seems on brand for Philly sports fans. :P
It was said that as long as Trump had a Twitter account he'd still be an important figure in political discourse. Now, about that, Twitter itself has something to say.
QuoteTrump could lose more than just the presidency this January. Twitter has confirmed that, if he leaves office in January, as now seems increasingly likely, he will no longer receive special treatment as "newsworthy individual".
Twitter's policy around newsworthiness protects certain people – such as elected officials with more than 250,000 followers – from having their accounts suspended or banned for rule infractions which would otherwise lead to severe penalties.
That policy is what has led to the company muting, but not removing, 12 tweets and counting from the president over the past week, as he continues to break the social network's rules about casting doubt on the democratic process.
But, Twitter has confirmed, the policy does not apply to former elected officials. They have to follow the same rules as everyone else, and if a tweet breaks those rules, it gets removed – with the account potentially following for regular offenders.
That will present Trump with a choice, if he is indeed removed from office in late January: either tone down the rhetoric, just as the humiliation bites hardest, or face the prospect of his hugely influential following being taken away from him.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 05:50:46 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 05:46:27 AM
Where are you seeing 10k in Georgia?
Not entirely sure it was just someone posting figures so there is a strong risk I may have got that wrong through bad mental math :o :Embarrass:
He's up just over 1k
I correct my earlier post about the press having generally sensible takes.
(https://i.ibb.co/z2ZP1rd/trumpo.png)
QuoteIt's Gritty, mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers hockey team and working class hero.
ANNOUNCEMENT. I NOW HAVE A (ice. Not real) HOCKEY TEAM.
:huh:
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:21:40 AM
I correct my earlier post about the press having generally sensible takes.
(https://i.ibb.co/z2ZP1rd/trumpo.png)
:lol:
It's the Express. The only things missing are a link to Princess Diana and a cure for Alzheimer's. The Express genuinely could just be written by a (not very smart) AI.
(https://i.ibb.co/MNRqpG3/Screenshot-20201106-122839-Chrome.jpg)
I look at the Express every now and then, it makes the mail look wise and erudite in comparison.
Newspapers attract zero vat because "...newspapers, books and some other printed products have historically been zero-rated for the purpose of value-added tax because their consumption is considered to benefit the public." I think the Express should have this exemption revoked as its main purpose appears to be scaring old ladies.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 06, 2020, 06:32:13 AM
Newspapers attract zero vat because "...newspapers, books and some other printed products have historically been zero-rated for the purpose of value-added tax because their consumption is considered to benefit the public." I think the Express should have this exemption revoked as its main purpose appears to be scaring old ladies.
Or pushing sales by promising false hope for a cure to alzheimer's based on very limited evidence.
The Express is basically clickbait, but from before the internet existed :lol: :ph34r:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 05:06:39 AM
:lol:
https://twitter.com/NicholasGuyatt/status/1324652192633151489?s=20
:lmfao: :lmfao:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 06:38:14 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 06, 2020, 06:32:13 AM
Newspapers attract zero vat because "...newspapers, books and some other printed products have historically been zero-rated for the purpose of value-added tax because their consumption is considered to benefit the public." I think the Express should have this exemption revoked as its main purpose appears to be scaring old ladies.
Or pushing sales by promising false hope for a cure to alzheimer's based on very limited evidence.
The Express is basically clickbait, but from before the internet existed :lol: :ph34r:
Its funny how things change, it used to be the Express was the better written paper for Tories.
But then the Independent was also the well written centre left one.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:40:33 AM
But then the Independent was also the well written centre left one.
I have no idea what's going on in the Independent because their site has so many ads and cookies that it is basically unuseable - a bit like local papers' websites.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 06:44:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:40:33 AM
But then the Independent was also the well written centre left one.
I have no idea what's going on in the Independent because their site has so many ads and cookies that it is basically unuseable - a bit like local papers' websites.
And every page wants to load a video. :bleeding:
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2020, 06:53:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 06:44:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:40:33 AM
But then the Independent was also the well written centre left one.
I have no idea what's going on in the Independent because their site has so many ads and cookies that it is basically unuseable - a bit like local papers' websites.
And every page wants to load a video. :bleeding:
Yes! Especially if you're on your phone the video takes up the top half of the screen. The ad banner takes up the bottom third and you can only read, at most, 1-2 lines at a time. I just see people linking to Independent articles and I'm sure they're interesting, but I just ignore them now :Embarrass:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 06:44:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:40:33 AM
But then the Independent was also the well written centre left one.
I have no idea what's going on in the Independent because their site has so many ads and cookies that it is basically unuseable - a bit like local papers' websites.
Speaking of - I thought about getting a digital sub for my old local paper back in Germany. They want 35 EUR per month, and they put all local news behind a paywall. I'm all in favor of supporting local press, but that seems a bit much.
I see that local papers' websites are the same all over. :lol: I always feel like in a minefield, one wrong click and I'll be opening some random banner I never even saw loading.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324474985671467013
For the past few days my mornings have started with Wolf Blitzer and my nights have ended with Wolf Blitzer. :hmm:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 07:01:08 AM
For the past few days my mornings have started with Wolf Blitzer and my nights have ended with Wolf Blitzer. :hmm:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/astronomers-discover-hell-planet-k2-141b-rock-rain-lava-oceans/ :hmm:
QuoteScientists discover bizarre hell planet where it rains rocks and oceans are made of lava
:lol:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 07:01:08 AM
For the past few days my mornings have started with Wolf Blitzer and my nights have ended with Wolf Blitzer. :hmm:
RIGHT NOW
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 07:02:34 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 07:01:08 AM
For the past few days my mornings have started with Wolf Blitzer and my nights have ended with Wolf Blitzer. :hmm:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/astronomers-discover-hell-planet-k2-141b-rock-rain-lava-oceans/ :hmm:
QuoteScientists discover bizarre hell planet where it rains rocks and oceans are made of lava
(https://d13ezvd6yrslxm.cloudfront.net/wp/wp-content/images/ZZ120C13DF.jpg)
If Biden takes all except NC he will hit 306 EV, the exact same number Trump got in 2016.
Tell us how you really feel :lol:
https://twitter.com/SSalcostello/status/1324414975482433541?s=20
There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping. There was some commentary that it is getting bluer, but may be a cycle or two away. The GOP senate candidate (Graham) was running a few points behind Trump, and democrats poured money into SC for that race--over $100 million.
Trump won SC by 11.6%. Graham won SC by 10.3%.
You know a democratic state that had a comparable margin to SC for Biden? Votes are still being counted, but Biden is currently up 12.7% in New York.
Imagine if the Republicans lit $100 million+ on fire to support a Senate candidate in NY that lost by double digits. There are some problems with resource allocation/expectations.
Come on, NY is not going to Biden by 12 points, but yes, a lot of bad resource allocation decisions were made due to bad polls.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 07:37:40 AM
Tell us how you really feel :lol:
https://twitter.com/SSalcostello/status/1324414975482433541?s=20
Angry white men coming out strongly for Trump!
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 07:44:25 AM
Come on, NY is not going to Biden by 12 points, but yes, a lot of bad resource allocation decisions were made due to bad polls.
Is it not? I literally just went down a list of states with reported votes and picked the democratic state that seemed the closest. :P
It says 99% reporting--is there a massive wave of Biden votes still out?
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 07:47:19 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 07:37:40 AM
Tell us how you really feel :lol:
https://twitter.com/SSalcostello/status/1324414975482433541?s=20
Angry white men coming out strongly for Trump!
For? :unsure:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AM
Imagine if the Republicans lit $100 million+ on fire to support a Senate candidate in NY that lost by double digits. There are some problems with resource allocation/expectations.
It'd be interesting to see a breakdown of money spent by, say, the DSCC and how much is Democrat donors? Because the issue may be that less that they're allocating it wrong, but that their donor base are easily seduced by shiny ads/social media hype rather than donating to the DSCC who might spend that money better.
I get the impression that Republican money is more likely to be funneld through the NRSC. I could be wrong.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:48:01 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 07:44:25 AM
Come on, NY is not going to Biden by 12 points, but yes, a lot of bad resource allocation decisions were made due to bad polls.
Is it not? I literally just went down a list of states with reported votes and picked the democratic state that seemed the closest. :P
It says 99% reporting--is there a massive wave of Biden votes still out?
Where are you seeing that? On NYT, it's nowhere near that. There is also a note saying that mail in results are not released yet, only in person early voting and Election Day voting results are released.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 07:54:46 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:48:01 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 07:44:25 AM
Come on, NY is not going to Biden by 12 points, but yes, a lot of bad resource allocation decisions were made due to bad polls.
Is it not? I literally just went down a list of states with reported votes and picked the democratic state that seemed the closest. :P
It says 99% reporting--is there a massive wave of Biden votes still out?
Where are you seeing that? On NYT, it's nowhere near that. There is also a note saying that mail in results are not released yet, only in person early voting and Election Day voting results are released.
RealClearPolitics.
So that could be it. The data is wrong.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AM
Imagine if the Republicans lit $100 million+ on fire to support a Senate candidate in NY that lost by double digits. There are some problems with resource allocation/expectations.
Yeah, like I said, it was laughable how much money the national Democrats pumped into the KY Senate race. McGrath was never, ever, EVER going to unseat Mitch McConnell. They seem to just like to set money on fire.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
I'm getting Biden up +18 with 84% reporting.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
There was talk of flipping the Senate seat though.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 08:03:49 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
There was talk of flipping the Senate seat though.
Sure, for the senate race against Graham, but never for the presidential elections.
Agreed. And looking at the (very incomplete) info on Open Secrets the DSCC didn't spend much money in SC.
As I say if this is more an issue of Dem donors being diffuse and easily distracted by shiny things rather than resource allocation by the party's campaigining wings themselves.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.
https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 08:15:16 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.
https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668
That doesn't count as "a ton of talk". Betting odds is not political discourse.
I don't think I heard the possibility of SC flipping mentioned once.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 08:18:52 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 08:15:16 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 07:59:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 07:39:29 AMThere was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.
No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.
Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.
https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668
That doesn't count as "a ton of talk". Betting odds is not political discourse.
So you want me to find and post a ton of articles here? :lol:
I mean, people were laying down money on a 20% chance of Biden winning and a poll at the end of September showed Biden within 1 point and you really don't think people were talking about it?
What's happening in Alaska? They're not moving at all on the count.
I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 06, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
I think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.
Quote from: Threviel on November 06, 2020, 08:35:24 AM
What's happening in Alaska? They're not moving at all on the count.
IIRC they've one of those laws where postal votes have to be counted from some later date only?
Either that or they've realised nobody cares.
Quote from: Berkut on November 06, 2020, 08:36:59 AM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 06, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:58 AM
Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*
I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.
I think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.
I wish you guys had an actual Conservative party, and that Trumpists were a ridiculed fringe.
Fine:
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/04/biden-has-become-shockingly-competitive-in-south-carolina-analysis_partner/
https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article246117830.html
538 gave Biden a 16 percent chance at the start of October and 10 percent at the end.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 08:36:35 AM
I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.
:lol: Also they're normally looking for value.
We have loads of political gambling in this country - it's fully legal - and they have a worse record at predicting things than polls, models, forecasts, finger-in-the-wind predictions or bird entrails. I think they are the worst predictor because that's not the function they serve.
American news networks yet another example (as with our actors) of Americans looking more attractive and healthy :Embarrass:
QuoteI think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.
What's interesting is that part of Biden's success has been in consolidating the anti-Trump votes of the Libertarian Party (who still won votes, but far fewer than Johnson won), McMullin etc.
Biden takes the lead in Pennsylvania :w00t:
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 08:36:35 AM
I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.
:yes: What we need is a statistical expert collecting all the polling results and weighting them to get a true picture.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 08:51:35 AM
Biden takes the lead in Pennsylvania :w00t:
Who says this?
The alex.github tracker isn't picking it up. Still 18k behind.
edit- just updated. Woo.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 08:53:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 08:51:35 AM
Biden takes the lead in Pennsylvania :w00t:
Who says this?
The alex.github tracker isn't picking it up. Still 18k behind.
Hit refresh.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 08:53:17 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 08:36:35 AM
I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.
:yes: What we need is a statistical expert collecting all the polling results and weighting them to get a true picture.
:D
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 08:53:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 08:51:35 AM
Biden takes the lead to Pennsylvania :w00t:
Who says this?
The alex.github tracker isn't picking it up. Still 18k behind.
Shelf typo, I fixed it.
Having lost the election, he's helping an old friend fix this roof.
Victory. :nelson:
Woke up to see GA and PA both flipped, marginally. Good times. :cheers:
I note Trump hasn't tweeted for 6 hours. Awake through the night then crashed?
Gonna be a nice wakeup for him...
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 08:56:39 AM
I note Trump hasn't tweeted for 6 hours. Awake through the night then crashed?
Gonna be a nice wakeup for him...
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJTybKX0AEHqlt?format=jpg&name=medium)
Apparently, Pennsylvania being called is imminent.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 06, 2020, 09:04:25 AM
Apparently, Pennsylvania being called is imminent.
Hope they wait until all the votes are counted. Should blunt the inevitable "YOU KEEP GOING UNTIL BIDEN WINS" complaints.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 06, 2020, 09:04:25 AM
Apparently, Pennsylvania being called is imminent.
Well, that's the ball game.
What does being called mean? Who calls and what is the effect?
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:21:40 AM
ANNOUNCEMENT. I NOW HAVE A (ice. Not real) HOCKEY TEAM.
No. Denied. Stay away. Go back to your fake football.
QuoteTrump has told people he has no plans to concede
From CNN's Kaitlan Collins
In conversations with allies in recent days, President Trump has said he has no intention to concede the election to Joe Biden, even if his path to a second term in office is effectively blocked by losses in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to bring Trump to terms of what's happening and have instead fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from him.
Trump's allies have grown concerned that someone is going to have to reckon with the President that his time in office is potentially coming to an end, though they have not decided who should be the one to do it. There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump doing so, sources said.
Hopefully someone gets that on tape. Fueherbunker tantrum, the sequel. :cool:
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 09:06:14 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 06, 2020, 09:04:25 AM
Apparently, Pennsylvania being called is imminent.
Hope they wait until all the votes are counted. Should blunt the inevitable "YOU KEEP GOING UNTIL BIDEN WINS" complaints.
I dont know, what if Fox News are the ones to do the calling? Wouldn't that blunt the blunting?
Quote from: daveracher on November 06, 2020, 09:09:49 AM
I dont know, what if Fox News are the ones to do the calling? Wouldn't that blunt the blunting?
Et tu, Vulpe?
Decision Desk has called the election for Biden.
Quote from: Maladict on November 06, 2020, 09:12:11 AM
Quote from: daveracher on November 06, 2020, 09:09:49 AM
I dont know, what if Fox News are the ones to do the calling? Wouldn't that blunt the blunting?
Et tu, Vulpe?
The two truths that it's always worth remembering about Rupert Murdoch. He doesn't like being associated with losers and, somewhere in his Monty Burns-ish heart, he still on occasion has the sould of an old newsman who knows a story when he see one and just runs with it, wherever the chips land.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
I hope you're not right, but it's hard to say because Trump, due to his very obvious mental illness, is very difficult to predict.
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
This. Relief at Biden's probable election should not dull vigilance.
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
Hopefully 300+ electoral votes should make it so even if one state is stolen it doesn't really matter.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 09:24:59 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
Hopefully 300+ electoral votes should make it so even if one state is stolen it doesn't really matter.
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
And it has been stolen in such a complex fashion that certain states need to stop or cancel votes, while other states need to count more votes.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 09:24:59 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
Hopefully 300+ electoral votes should make it so even if one state is stolen it doesn't really matter.
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
Thus we must begin stockpiling delicious memes to dismiss their idiocy with the flick of a wrist.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 06, 2020, 09:24:34 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 06, 2020, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Will not ever happen unfortunately. This is only the beginning of his shenanigans.
This. Relief at Biden's probable election should not dull vigilance.
Agreed with both of you.
And I'll add, doesn't matter how this drama is portrayed in the mainstream media, how is it playing on social media, will his 'troops' rally to the MAGA flag, will they start small insurrections even without his prompting?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:27:08 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
And it has been stolen in such a complex fashion that certain states need to stop or cancel votes, while other states need to count more votes.
That just shows how clever those (((DemonRats))) are!!1
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:27:08 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
And it has been stolen in such a complex fashion that certain states need to stop or cancel votes, while other states need to count more votes.
I liked Colbert's line about that. If Biden can orchestrate something so complex and execute a plan with such a low margin for error - he is definitely the person to lead us.
—Let's steal the Presidential election! We have the capacity! Should be easy!
— What about the Senate?
— Naaah.
Quote from: Threviel on November 06, 2020, 08:35:24 AM
What's happening in Alaska? They're not moving at all on the count.
we have 120,000 mail in ballots which by state law Iirc can't be counted till week after Election Day.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
If people think the "not my president" sentiment during the Obama and Trump years was bad, it has a potential to be a lot worse after this election.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 09:45:07 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 09:25:48 AM
The narrative is the whole election was stolen. Trumpism is alive and well and you will hear this refrain until a Trumpist regains power.
If people think the "not my president" sentiment during the Obama and Trump years was bad, it has a potential to be a lot worse after this election.
Agreed
So much love for Nevada that after only counting 20k votes yesterday, have now seen the pressures off and announced they won't have results until 12 November. Bravo :lol:
Biden has fairly clearly won the election now and will be the next President.
To me the larger questions kind of looming is we already have McConnell saying the Senate will do everything it can, including not even approving cabinet nominees, to limit Biden's Presidency. If this is the new normal I really kind of wonder how the Democrats ever effectively govern. It's always going to be hard for them to win congressional elections when they hold the White House, because their voters blame them for Republican disruption in Congress meaning they lose even more seats, and the cycle just repeats.
Eh, if the system can survive Trump, it can survive another 8, 16, 32 years of gridlock. :P
Even if the Democrats had the majorities in both houses, I doubt they'd change the rules to prevent Republican obstruction from happening. So I guess you'll have to get used to governing by executive order and without much legislation when one party doesn't hold the presidency and both houses.
Quote from: mongers on November 06, 2020, 09:28:30 AM
And I'll add, doesn't matter how this drama is portrayed in the mainstream media, how is it playing on social media, will his 'troops' rally to the MAGA flag, will they start small insurrections even without his prompting?
A problem for Trump is that he is leading a movement of the uneducated, and all the generals went to college.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/nov/05/us-election-joe-biden-donald-trump-result-latest-who-is-winning-live-2020-updates?page=with:block-5fa561de8f08f974eae12c85#block-5fa561de8f08f974eae12c85
QuoteCNN's Abby Phillip said Joe Biden's potential victory represents "a proving moment" for the political strength of African American women.
"Carrying Joe Biden to the Democratic nomination through the primary: Black women did that," Phillip said.
The CNN correspondent noted the historic nature of Biden choosing a Black woman, Kamala Harris, as his running mate.
"Not only would Black women put Joe Biden in the White House, but they would also put a Black woman in the White House as well, and that is the sort of historical poetry that I think we will live with for a long time," Phillip said.
She added, "Donald Trump's political career began with the racist birther lie; it may very well end with a Black woman in the White House."
Yeah, given Georgia I'm comfortable attributing this win to black women. I can imagine the data there is going to be heavily anti Trump.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Trump doesn't drink.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 10:09:02 AM
Trump doesn't drink.
I know, it's the least of his flaws :(
Back to Gritty.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJj0ORX0AEI4Lu?format=jpg&name=small)
I like how they went with the John Brown look.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/The_Tragic_Prelude_John_Brown.jpg)
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:02:05 AM
Yeah, given Georgia I'm comfortable attributing this win to black women. I can imagine the data there is going to be heavily anti Trump.
Stacy Abrams is the architect for Biden's victory in Georgia. She's accomplished something that hasn't been done in 28 years, delivered an election to Democratic Presidential nominee. Make her party chair. The rest of the Dems could learn a lot from her. Unless she want's a cabinet post, then give her whatever post she wants.
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2020, 10:16:46 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:02:05 AM
Yeah, given Georgia I'm comfortable attributing this win to black women. I can imagine the data there is going to be heavily anti Trump.
Stacy Abrams is the architect for Biden's victory in Georgia. She's accomplished something that hasn't been done in 28 years, delivered an election to Democratic Presidential nominee. Make her party chair. The rest of the Dems could learn a lot from her. Unless she want's a cabinet post, then give her whatever post she wants.
She's apparently one of the people that Mitch McConnell specifically wants to block from becoming part of Biden's cabinet.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:19:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129 (https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129)
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 10:09:02 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 09:09:11 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 06, 2020, 09:00:01 AM
He looked and sounded thoroughly spent and exhausted at his press conference last night. I think he went right to bed shortly after. He'll be up mashing buttons soon.
It is reaching the point that someone in the Trump team needs to have a chat with him, a bottle of scotch and a concession letter.
Trump doesn't drink.
Bottle of Diet Coke then?
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:19:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129 (https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129)
There's like 6 of them, though. Not exactly a spontaneous mass event.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 10:27:08 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:19:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129 (https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129)
There's like 6 of them, though. Not exactly a spontaneous mass event.
You heard of corona, bro?
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2020, 10:28:38 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 10:27:08 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:19:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129 (https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129)
There's like 6 of them, though. Not exactly a spontaneous mass event.
You heard of corona, bro?
All I am saying is that 6 people dancing on a big-ass street is not news worthy, mate.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 10:30:03 AM
All I am saying is that 6 people dancing on a big-ass street is not news worthy, mate.
Probs why it's on people's socials and not the news channels :P
And I feel like there may be bigger celebrations this evening when people can take a drink :ph34r:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:31:01 AM
And I feel like there may be bigger celebrations this evening when people can take a drink :ph34r:
Well yeah lets hope so. This has been exhausting.
This is from last night. :P
https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241 (https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241)
QAnon folks deciding to blow up ballots and people to make good on their claims that someone stole the election.
Philadelphia police probe alleged plot to attack vote-counting site (https://www.kxan.com/news/national-news/philadelphia-police-probe-alleged-plot-to-attack-vote-counting-site/)
QuotePhiladelphia police said on Friday they are investigating an alleged plot to attack the city's Pennsylvania Convention Center, where votes from the contested presidential election are being counted.
Local police received a tip about a Hummer with armed people driving up from Virginia with plans to attack the convention center, a police representative said.
Police took at least one man into custody and seized a weapon as well as the Hummer about which they had received a tip. No injuries were reported and no further details about the alleged plot were disclosed.
Edit: added story for our Euro friends. :)
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:35:33 AM
This is from last night. :P
https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241 (https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241)
Three dancing mail boxes are not newsworthy. :D
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 10:36:59 AM
QAnon folks deciding to blow up ballots and people to make good on their claims that someone stole the election.
Philadelphia police probe alleged plot to attack vote-counting site (https://www.kxan.com/news/national-news/philadelphia-police-probe-alleged-plot-to-attack-vote-counting-site/)
QuoteOur European visitors are important to us.
This site is currently unavailable to visitors from the European Economic Area while we work to ensure your data is protected in accordance with applicable EU laws.
Pffff. Lazy web designers.
Have there been any good Downfall videos out yet? I've seen two, but both were kind of meh.
Quote from: garbon on November 06, 2020, 10:37:38 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:35:33 AM
This is from last night. :P
https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241 (https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1324507667272970241)
Three dancing mail boxes are not newsworthy. :D
They also had an antifa Gritty. :lol:
(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/H8EEgrmBPM8OmTLubg6-GRX9RPg=/1400x0/center/middle/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/QLWFSOGZLVGF7KTTWHL36FDP4A.jpg)
From the Guardian - on CNN they were discussing who breaks the news:
Quote
In conversations with allies in recent days, President Trump has said he has no intention to concede the election to Joe Biden, even if his path to a second term in office is effectively blocked by losses in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to bring Trump to terms of what's happening and have instead fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from him.
Trump's allies have grown concerned that someone is going to have to reckon with the President that his time in office is potentially coming to an end, though they have not decided who should be the one to do it. There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump doing so, sources said.
Surely the President will find out about this, as he does most things, from Fox and Friends? :mellow:
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:42:20 AMThey also had an antifa Gritty. :lol:
(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/H8EEgrmBPM8OmTLubg6-GRX9RPg=/1400x0/center/middle/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/QLWFSOGZLVGF7KTTWHL36FDP4A.jpg)
:lol: :wub:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:43:06 AM
From the Guardian - on CNN they were discussing who breaks the news:
Quote
In conversations with allies in recent days, President Trump has said he has no intention to concede the election to Joe Biden, even if his path to a second term in office is effectively blocked by losses in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to bring Trump to terms of what's happening and have instead fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from him.
Trump's allies have grown concerned that someone is going to have to reckon with the President that his time in office is potentially coming to an end, though they have not decided who should be the one to do it. There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump doing so, sources said.
Surely the President will find out about this, as he does most things, from Fox and Friends? :mellow:
:lol:
I wonder how long it'll be before we get a movie of this. I'm placing an outside bet on before Biden's term is over. Armando Iannucci better be scribbling now.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:43:06 AM
From the Guardian - on CNN they were discussing who breaks the news:
Quote
In conversations with allies in recent days, President Trump has said he has no intention to concede the election to Joe Biden, even if his path to a second term in office is effectively blocked by losses in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to bring Trump to terms of what's happening and have instead fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from him.
Trump's allies have grown concerned that someone is going to have to reckon with the President that his time in office is potentially coming to an end, though they have not decided who should be the one to do it. There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump doing so, sources said.
Surely the President will find out about this, as he does most things, from Fox and Friends? :mellow:
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HardtofindSafeFly-small.gif)
STOPPING THE COUNT WAS AN ORDER!
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
[but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
:wacko:
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
You want more obstruction of acually governing? Because that's how you get more obstruction of actually governing.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 10:54:31 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
You want more obstruction of acually governing? Because that's how you get more obstruction of actually governing.
Yeah this strikes me as a horrible outcome.
I would have thought traditional conservatives would be against the present day Republican Party as a whole.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is a very strained maybe.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
Yeah, a lot of your posts have indicated that your Never Trumpism was always only related to the face of the the GOP rather than the deeper rot. I suspect that is the same for most conservatives.
I do fear that the republicans holding the senate and obstructing biden from doing anything might leads to strengthening the fascistly inclined out there and their belief that america needs a strong leader...
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 10:21:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:19:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 10:17:14 AM
:lol:
Twitter sharing videos of people dancing on the streets of Philly :wub:
Usless without linx. :angry:
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129 (https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129)
That is fantastic
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 10:56:41 AM
Yeah this strikes me as a horrible outcome.
I would have thought traditional conservatives would be against the present day Republican Party as a whole.
I'd argue it's worse than Trump winning but losing the Senate, because I think he doesn't care about the Republican Party and is fundamentally transactional so it wouldn't surprise me if he actually, finally did Infrastructure Week etc.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:59:10 AM
I do fear that the republicans holding the senate and obstructing biden from doing anything might leads to strengthening the fascistly inclined out there and their belief that america needs a strong leader...
Yep. The GOP needed to be smashed in this election if it was to move on from Trumpism. It wasn't and so it won't.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
Interesting. I thought you understood that for the most part the reason the United States has been a dysfunctional cesspit of disease is because of the Republican leadership above and beyond Trump.
Guess you didn't get that bit.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:59:10 AM
I do fear that the republicans holding the senate and obstructing biden from doing anything might leads to strengthening the fascistly inclined out there and their belief that america needs a strong leader...
Yep, but hey, as long as the left doesn't win, right. And why worry too much Malthus tells us that right wing populism leading to fascism is just as bad as left wing populism which leads to universal health care....
On the other hand, if GOP leadership now runs from Trump like rats from a sinking ship, it might tear the party in two and throw it into chaos, which is also good.
Some theories on why the GOP did so well at the Congressional and state level while Trump lost bigly:
Traditionally GOP suburbs voted against Trump but voted for their local GOP candidates
Dem incompetence/overconfidence at running their Congressional campaigns
Biden running a good campaign to beat the President, overperforming where Congressional Dems got slaughtered
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
Some theories on why the GOP did so well at the Congressional and state level while Trump lost bigly:
Traditionally GOP suburbs voted against Trump but voted for their local GOP candidates
Dem incompetence/overconfidence at running their Congressional campaigns
Biden running a good campaign to beat the President, overperforming where Congressional Dems got slaughtered
I wonder whether down ballet candidates thought they would be swept along in the anticipated big blue wave and didn't do enough work getting their own vote out.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
Traditionally GOP suburbs voted against Trump but voted for their local GOP candidates
I wonder about this. Was 2018 just a normal mid-terms? Was it perhaps a way for voters to rebuke Trump whereas in this election they can vote directly against Trump while voting for Congressional Republicans?
One other thought - people are energised to vote for a Presidential candidate, especially at the minute. But for coat-tails you need a traditional GOTV campaign etc which the Democrats just stopped because of covid (I think this was potentially a catastrophic decision/over-reaction).
Also how awful is Martha McSally to lose repeated Senate elections, even she is the incumbent :ph34r:
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:03:49 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
Interesting. I thought you understood that for the most part the reason the United States has been a dysfunctional cesspit of disease is because of the Republican leadership above and beyond Trump.
Guess you didn't get that bit.
See this is where you and I are very different. I was and am NeverTrump because of the man's manifest personal flaws and frailties.
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
Kayleigh McEnany just deleted all her tweets after October 31st. :D
Not sure how people can blame the Democrats on a GOTV failure when about 15 million extra people voted in this election. Can definitely see the argument that Trump did the work for them. Heck, even Trump got more votes this time,
Which leads me to another thing, I used to think that high turnout was a good thing for democracy. Now, I'm not so sure, I think it's a sign that democracy is in trouble.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
See this is where you and I are very different. I was and am NeverTrump because of the man's manifest personal flaws and frailties.
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
I don't know about Meri but the bit I would add is that it is because of the Republican party's instittuional flaws and frailties, that he could succeed in their primary and as their candidate.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 11:29:55 AM
Kayleigh McEnany just deleted all her tweets after October 31st. :D
There will be some smoke coming from the White House between now and January :lol:
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:03:49 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 05, 2020, 10:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2020, 10:13:27 PM
GA 1,797 :menace:
It's so weird to me to see our Languish conservatives rooting for the fall of the Republican president. :unsure:
I mean, I understand this isn't a normal Republican or president, but still....
You know, I'm starting to come around to the view that the election results were a pretty great result all things considered.
Trump was defeated. #1 priority. But beyond that, the GOP held the Senate (probably), gained seats in the House, did well apparently in state-level races. I had wanted an utter GOP defeat as a way of utterly defeating Trumpism, but maybe the GOP doing well at every level except for President is just as effective.
Interesting. I thought you understood that for the most part the reason the United States has been a dysfunctional cesspit of disease is because of the Republican leadership above and beyond Trump.
Guess you didn't get that bit.
See this is where you and I are very different. I was and am NeverTrump because of the man's manifest personal flaws and frailties.
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
No better indication of where conservatism is going.
Biden up 22k in Nevada now.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:03:49 AM
Interesting. I thought you understood that for the most part the reason the United States has been a dysfunctional cesspit of disease is because of the Republican leadership above and beyond Trump.
Guess you didn't get that bit.
See this is where you and I are very different. I was and am NeverTrump because of the man's manifest personal flaws and frailties.
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
Interesting. Given that I've voted for plenty of Republicans in the last 32 years of elections I've been involved in, that seems a far reach by you. :)
No, BB, my issue is with how the Republicans embraced Trump being Trump. For a start. And I've said for years that I think McConnell is outright evil in the way that he's wielded his power in the Senate. Again, not because of the R behind his name, but because of the absolute hypocrisy that he's exhibited and refusal to govern in good faith with anyone not a Republican.
I don't vote for a party. I vote for people. It used to be the Midwestern way until the current crop of Republicans changed that. No, BB. My problem is with Trump, his sycophants, and the people who have refused to govern in good faith with the other party.
Yeah in my county Biden got 10,000 move votes than the Congressional and Senatorial candidates for the Democrats. Five thousand people who voted for Biden went with third party candidates and 2,000 voted for the Senatorial candidate while voting for Joe Biden and 5,000 voted for the Republican Congressional candidate while voting for Joe Biden. And another 6,000 people just voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank.
So the result was a 1.5 point win for Joe Biden but a three point loss in the Senate race and a five point loss in the House race.
Joe Biden's coattails were not exactly sweeping everybody along.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:39:44 AM
Yeah in my county Biden got 10,000 move votes than the Congressional and Senatorial candidates for the Democrats. Five thousand people who voted for Biden went with third party candidates and 2,000 voted for the Senatorial candidate while voting for Joe Biden and 5,000 voted for the Republican Congressional candidate while voting for Joe Biden. And another 6,000 people just voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank.
So the result was a 1.5 point win for Joe Biden but a three point loss in the Senate race and a five point loss in the House race.
Joe Biden's coattails were not exactly sweeping everybody along.
This wasn't a win for the Democratic platform. This was a loss for four years of Republican chaos. That's not going to translate at the lower levels of government.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
Have there been any good Downfall videos out yet? I've seen two, but both were kind of meh.
Yeah, I've been trawling the web for them and so far they've been quite disappointing.
Yeah, moderate republican vs. a democrat Trump and its clear the republicans would be the one to support.
Though its obviously a bit of a daft theoretical as the troubles with the republicans are deeper than trump. I can't see the same circumstances allowing a Trump figure in the Dems in our timeline.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
Looks like he woke up a few minutes ago.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
So, still fairly right. :P
Valmy reads the Canadian thread but do you and others? This is pretty par for the course language from BB. Destruction of Government & Forced-Birth agenda.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
You can see the conservative narrative post trump. All is well. Now that the big bad is gone no need to change a thing. You are all just a bunch of GOP haters at this point. Oh, and don't notice that we are the same group that supported him these last four years and that all our policies are exactly the same. Next time we will have a much more slick front man.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 06, 2020, 10:16:46 AM
Stacy Abrams is the architect for Biden's victory in Georgia. She's accomplished something that hasn't been done in 28 years, delivered an election to Democratic Presidential nominee. Make her party chair. The rest of the Dems could learn a lot from her. Unless she want's a cabinet post, then give her whatever post she wants.
Wait a second...
While Biden is probably going to win Georgia, the Democrats are going to finish with less votes in both senate races (both headed to runoff), and didn't unseat any republican incumbents in the house (republicans will send 8 to 5 dems - one race outstanding but an open seat probably going to dems).
In the state senate, they picked up one seat. The chamber was 34-21, now it will be 33-22.
In the state house, it looks like they picked up three seats (one of which was my district). It was 103-75, so it will be something like 100-78 (there are some races still outstanding).
Everything in the state has been lost for the Democrats, except for a presidential election that probably will have no effect on anything (Biden would win without Georgia).
The bigger context is that this is a redistricting year, so the republicans will be in complete control of that process and probably gerrymander a democratic house seat or two out of existence, and lock down the legislature a bit more.
The context totally changes if Democrats pick up the Senate seats, but focusing just on the headlines of Biden winning Georgia is missing something.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 06, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
So, still fairly right. :P
Valmy reads the Canadian thread but do you and others? This pretty par for the course language from BB. Destruction of Government & Forced-Birth agenda.
I think this is why people are surprised when BB shows his true colours outside the Canadian thread. Everybody views him as a mild manner Canadian who happens to be a Conservative. I don't think people realize how right wing the right wing of the Canadian Conservative party is.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 11:45:33 AM
Yeah, moderate republican vs. a democrat Trump and its clear the republicans would be the one to support.
Though its obviously a bit of a daft theoretical as the troubles with the republicans are deeper than trump. I can't see the same circumstances allowing a Trump figure in the Dems in our timeline.
Since Trump was quite literally a Democrat at several points in his life it's not hard to imagine a Democratic Trump.
There were always clearly some issues that Trump believed in strongly: tariffs, foreign non-involvement, against immigration. Those beliefs match the Democrats about as well as they match the GOP, which is to say imperfectly.
Then there were issues that Trump very clearly embraced because his followers believed them: anti-abortion, judges. It's not hard to imagine Trump the man running in the Democratic primary in 2016. And it's a far-out-there counter-factual, but given the opposition he might have won just as easily.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 11:49:43 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
You can see the conservative narrative post trump. All is well. Now that the big bad is gone no need to change a thing. You are all just a bunch of GOP haters at this point. Oh, and don't notice that we are the same group that supported him these last four years and that all our policies are exactly the same. Next time we will have a much more slick front man.
Indeed, the conclusion from this election is that many voters don't like Trump personally, but are okay with his polices. So the conclusion is to tone down the rhetoric/confrontation but leave the substance unchanged.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 06, 2020, 11:48:14 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
So, still fairly right. :P
Valmy reads the Canadian thread but do you and others? This is pretty par for the course language from BB. Destruction of Government & Forced-Birth agenda.
I'm a centrist and have always been. It's not my fault the parties shifted to put me solidly in the blue. :P
Man Georgia is being such a tease, trickling through votes a dozen at a time.
QuoteSince Trump was quite literally a Democrat at several points in his life it's not hard to imagine a Democratic Trump.
There were always clearly some issues that Trump believed in strongly: tariffs, foreign non-involvement, against immigration. Those beliefs match the Democrats about as well as they match the GOP, which is to say imperfectly.
Then there were issues that Trump very clearly embraced because his followers believed them: anti-abortion, judges. It's not hard to imagine Trump the man running in the Democratic primary in 2016. And it's a far-out-there counter-factual, but given the opposition he might have won just as easily.
I disagree.
Trump supporting the Democrats, feasible. Trump attempting a run, feasible. But Trump actually winning the dem primary? All the stuff people said about him having no chance with the republicans would actually apply there. Being a racist, corrupt cheat would harm him seriously with the dems whilst it is fairly in line with what the republicans have become.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
I always assume that no response means that what I said was so moronic it's not worth commenting on or even ridiculing it. :)
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
You never really know until you get there, but given the absence of any evidence to the contrary I fully accept that you, and Meri, and any other Languish Dems would fully vote for a GOP candidate instead of a Trump-like Democrat. :hug:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 11:24:53 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
Traditionally GOP suburbs voted against Trump but voted for their local GOP candidates
I wonder about this. Was 2018 just a normal mid-terms? Was it perhaps a way for voters to rebuke Trump whereas in this election they can vote directly against Trump while voting for Congressional Republicans?
One other thought - people are energised to vote for a Presidential candidate, especially at the minute. But for coat-tails you need a traditional GOTV campaign etc which the Democrats just stopped because of covid (I think this was potentially a catastrophic decision/over-reaction).
Also how awful is Martha McSally to lose repeated Senate elections, even she is the incumbent :ph34r:
Thinking about it, the Dems probably made as many gains as they could in 2018, especially with Trump not on the ballot. They just couldn't keep up that sort of pace when Donald was on the ballot this year and he turned out his voters in droves.
The Georgia runoffs will be especially interesting now.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 12:01:47 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 11:24:53 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
Traditionally GOP suburbs voted against Trump but voted for their local GOP candidates
I wonder about this. Was 2018 just a normal mid-terms? Was it perhaps a way for voters to rebuke Trump whereas in this election they can vote directly against Trump while voting for Congressional Republicans?
One other thought - people are energised to vote for a Presidential candidate, especially at the minute. But for coat-tails you need a traditional GOTV campaign etc which the Democrats just stopped because of covid (I think this was potentially a catastrophic decision/over-reaction).
Also how awful is Martha McSally to lose repeated Senate elections, even she is the incumbent :ph34r:
Thinking about it, the Dems probably made as many gains as they could in 2018, especially with Trump not on the ballot. They just couldn't keep up that sort of pace when Donald was on the ballot this year and he turned out his voters in droves.
The Georgia runoffs will be especially interesting now.
Yeah, good point.
Lots of talk of the risk of Court packing incoming I assume.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
I didn't think it was a call out. There's nothing wrong with opposing someone because of their political party - that's what democracy is all about. But you were the one who commented on how odd it felt to see conservatives rooting against Trump and in favour of Biden.
If you prefer I can avoid replying to your political posts.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 11:49:43 AM
You can see the conservative narrative post trump. All is well.
I hope that is the conservative narrative. The narrative seems to be that some great electoral crime has occurred and must be fought tooth and nail.
I hope at some point people would get tired and want a return to normalcy.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:05:35 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
I didn't think it was a call out. There's nothing wrong with opposing someone because of their political party - that's what democracy is all about. But you were the one who commented on how odd it felt to see conservatives rooting against Trump and in favour of Biden.
If you prefer I can avoid replying to your political posts.
Oh I was definitely calling out your claim of being a Never Trumper. Turns out it was always only about the front man and not his policies.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 12:08:25 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 11:49:43 AM
You can see the conservative narrative post trump. All is well.
I hope that is the conservative narrative. The narrative seems to be that some great electoral crime has occurred and must be fought tooth and nail.
I hope at some point people would get tired and want a return to normalcy.
You missed the point that was made in the rest of my post.
All is not well in the Republican party and anyone fool enough to believe that gets what they deserve. Unfortunately the rest of the world suffers too. So don't make that mistake.
I honestly hope that the one thing that comes out of Trump's temper tantrum is that it disenfranchises his base from participating in all further elections. That would be his best legacy ever.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:53:25 AM
Since Trump was quite literally a Democrat at several points in his life it's not hard to imagine a Democratic Trump.
Yes he could have easily been a Democratic populist amplifying all of our worst qualities. I would like to believe that that kind of thing would never get much traction here.
Thank God.
But if he had I know all the Republicans would have been like "well this would never happen to the Republican Party and our strong moral and conservative values".
The future for both parties is really up in the air. Joe Biden is the last gasp of the third way. Big changes are coming.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 12:09:08 PM
Oh I was definitely calling out your claim of being a Never Trumper. Turns out it was always only about the front man and not his policies.
There's lots I don't like about Trump's policies - his insistence on trade wars, his in-your-face-racism, his unconcern with the debt.
But would I have supported a sane, rational person who ran on that same platform, when the opponent was Hillary? I dunno - it's hard to tease out where the insanity begins in his overall policy platform.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 12:13:05 PM
I honestly hope that the one thing that comes out of Trump's temper tantrum is that it disenfranchises his base from participating in all further elections. That would be his best legacy ever.
From your lips to whatever power that can make that happen.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 12:10:40 PM
You missed the point that was made in the rest of my post.
All is not well in the Republican party and anyone fool enough to believe that gets what they deserve. Unfortunately the rest of the world suffers too. So don't make that mistake.
I live in Texas. The Republican Party is getting progressively more idiotic by the day as the local good old boy Texas politicians get edged out by out of state radicals. I don't think I will be making such a mistake. I think everybody in a state dominated by Republicans is going to see this kind of stuff going on. They are not going to be putting up a good show of implying everything is cool even if they wanted to.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 12:13:05 PM
I honestly hope that the one thing that comes out of Trump's temper tantrum is that it disenfranchises his base from participating in all further elections. That would be his best legacy ever.
Sadly I wouldn't count on it. The conservative media ecosystem is remarkably effective at editing out the worst of Trump's temper tantrums. His base will never see it.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:14:25 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 12:09:08 PM
Oh I was definitely calling out your claim of being a Never Trumper. Turns out it was always only about the front man and not his policies.
There's lots I don't like about Trump's policies - his insistence on trade wars, his in-your-face-racism, his unconcern with the debt.
But would I have supported a sane, rational person who ran on that same platform, when the opponent was Hillary? I dunno - it's hard to tease out where the insanity begins in his overall policy platform.
Exactly my point.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:16:28 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 12:13:05 PM
I honestly hope that the one thing that comes out of Trump's temper tantrum is that it disenfranchises his base from participating in all further elections. That would be his best legacy ever.
Sadly I wouldn't count on it. The conservative media ecosystem is remarkably effective at editing out the worst of Trump's temper tantrums. His base will never see it.
BB, you are the base so long as it has a better front man.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:05:35 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 11:46:19 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:43:52 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 11:28:31 AM
You on the other hand were opposed to Trump for those same reasons - but also because he was a Republican.
WE JUST FUCKING SAID THAT WE WOULD ALSO OPPOSE TRUMP IS HE WAS A DEMOCRAT.
Jesus Christ.
Don't worry, Valmy. Seven people called him out, but I was the only one he felt a need to call out. This is clearly because I'm the extremist of the extremes of the Democrats here on Languish. :)
I didn't think it was a call out. There's nothing wrong with opposing someone because of their political party - that's what democracy is all about. But you were the one who commented on how odd it felt to see conservatives rooting against Trump and in favour of Biden.
If you prefer I can avoid replying to your political posts.
It just made it very clear that you see others as you see yourself. I've never been a single party voter, and I've reiterated this time and again. I think most of the liberals on Languish have been very clear that they vote on policies. If the Democratic policies shifted from their current path, I don't doubt for a moment that they would also shift.
My comment was more incredulity and understanding that most of our conservative folks were the same, and I appreciated it. It was an acknowledgement of my own biases and a change in my view. Clearly, based on your comment, however, that isn't all of our conservative folks. You're cool with the current Republican policies, driven by Trump's populism and racism. Good to know.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 11:06:41 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:59:10 AM
I do fear that the republicans holding the senate and obstructing biden from doing anything might leads to strengthening the fascistly inclined out there and their belief that america needs a strong leader...
Yep, but hey, as long as the left doesn't win, right. And why worry too much Malthus tells us that right wing populism leading to fascism is just as bad as left wing populism which leads to universal health care....
Not cool.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 12:16:11 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 12:10:40 PM
You missed the point that was made in the rest of my post.
All is not well in the Republican party and anyone fool enough to believe that gets what they deserve. Unfortunately the rest of the world suffers too. So don't make that mistake.
I live in Texas. The Republican Party is getting progressively more idiotic by the day as the local good old boy Texas politicians get edged out by out of state radicals. I don't think I will be making such a mistake. I think everybody in a state dominated by Republicans is going to see this kind of stuff going on. They are not going to be putting up a good show of implying everything is cool even if they wanted to.
I see. Context is important. Thank you for providing it. :)
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:18:56 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 11:06:41 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 10:59:10 AM
I do fear that the republicans holding the senate and obstructing biden from doing anything might leads to strengthening the fascistly inclined out there and their belief that america needs a strong leader...
Yep, but hey, as long as the left doesn't win, right. And why worry too much Malthus tells us that right wing populism leading to fascism is just as bad as left wing populism which leads to universal health care....
Not cool.
Coming around to the fact that right wing populism might just be worse. :P
I think you are misrepresenting what Malthus was saying in another thread (clearly enough IMO). I also think you're underestimating how much aggravation being misrepresented brings to people, and that in such a situation the :P comes across as inflammatory rather than conciliatory.
More street partying in Philadelphia in this thread: https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1324744656731688961?s=20
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 12:27:19 PM
More street partying in Philadelphia in this thread: https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1324744656731688961?s=20
Particularly enjoy people dancing to Trump's theme: YMCA (I still don't understand this but here we are):
https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1324753161219952641?s=20
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
It just made it very clear that you see others as you see yourself. I've never been a single party voter, and I've reiterated this time and again.
I just wanted to make quite clear that I am anything but a single party voter!
In my life I have voted for:
Reform Party
Progressive Conservative Party (or Alberta and Manitoba)
Canadian Alliance
Conservative Party
Libertarian Party
Wildrose Party
Yukon Party
United Conservative Party
;)
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:31:02 PM
I just wanted to make quite clear that I am anything but a single party voter!
In my life I have voted for:
Reform Party
Progressive Conservative Party (or Alberta and Manitoba)
Canadian Alliance
Conservative Party
Libertarian Party
Wildrose Party
Yukon Party
United Conservative Party
;)
:lol: :hug: I feel this. I have voted in fewer elections but I've voted for:
Green Party
Labour Party
Lib Dems (mistakes were made :( :x)
Trade Union and Socialist Coalition
Far from a one party voter :ph34r:
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Lib Dems (mistakes were made :( :x)
It's ok. You can correct this mistake by never voting for those other parties again.
Philadelphia: protecting American democracy since 1775.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 12:38:38 PM
Philadelphia: protecting American democracy since 1775.
:wub:
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:30:39 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 06, 2020, 12:27:19 PM
More street partying in Philadelphia in this thread: https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1324744656731688961?s=20
Particularly enjoy people dancing to Trump's theme: YMCA (I still don't understand this but here we are):
https://twitter.com/ambiej/status/1324753161219952641?s=20
Someone should edit Trump's "dancing" into that video.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
It would be awesome when this shit year is over and the pandemic is done, to do a Languish trip to Philadelphia ... may be a dream, but a fun one. 😀
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:31:02 PM
I just wanted to make quite clear that I am anything but a single party voter!
In my life I have voted for:
Reform Party
Progressive Conservative Party (or Alberta and Manitoba)
Canadian Alliance
Conservative Party
Libertarian Party
Wildrose Party
Yukon Party
United Conservative Party
;)
:lol: :hug: I feel this. I have voted in fewer elections but I've voted for:
Green Party
Labour Party
Lib Dems (mistakes were made :( :x)
Trade Union and Socialist Coalition
Far from a one party voter :ph34r:
The joke is those are all essentially the same Conservative party.
It is just that the Reform party went through a number of iterations. He never left that party, he just followed it through all its name changes.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 11:50:28 AM
The context totally changes if Democrats pick up the Senate seats, but focusing just on the headlines of Biden winning Georgia is missing something.
If the Democrats somehow take one or both of those Senate seats in January then we can talk about how purple Georgia is going to be.
Barely beating Trump with lots of Libertarian votes is not going to cut it.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
It would be awesome when this shit year is over and the pandemic is done, to do a Languish trip to Philadelphia ... may be a dream, but a fun one. 😀
I'll be up for it.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 11:50:28 AM
The context totally changes if Democrats pick up the Senate seats, but focusing just on the headlines of Biden winning Georgia is missing something.
If the Democrats somehow take one or both of those Senate seats in January then we can talk about how purple Georgia is going to be.
Barely beating Trump with lots of Libertarian votes is not going to cut it.
And the interesting point would be to compare Georgia now since they introduced automatic voter registration which, I understand, was in 2016 - rather than just this one cycle.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 12:48:27 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
It would be awesome when this shit year is over and the pandemic is done, to do a Languish trip to Philadelphia ... may be a dream, but a fun one. 😀
I'll be up for it.
That would be fun
Edit: Dorsey better be there too or you will never hear the end of it. :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
Philadelphia is a really cool town, I like it a lot.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 12:48:27 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
It would be awesome when this shit year is over and the pandemic is done, to do a Languish trip to Philadelphia ... may be a dream, but a fun one. 😀
I'll be up for it.
I feel like we haven't had a proper Languish meet for over a decade. I'd be in.
Biden up by 12.3 K in Pennsylvania ...
Unfortunately we may have to wait till 2022, or will there be a window in summer 2021?
Edit... that would be for the Languish meet not the completion of the Pennsylvania count.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 06, 2020, 12:55:39 PM
Unfortunately we may have to wait till 2022, or will there be a window in summer 2021?
I think it will be down to when a vaccine becomes widely available. Summer is optimistic, but perhaps possible?
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/MerryEnergeticAmericanavocet-mobile.mp4
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 06, 2020, 12:55:39 PM
Edit... that would be for the Languish meet not the completion of the Pennsylvania count.
:lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:31:02 PM
I just wanted to make quite clear that I am anything but a single party voter!
In my life I have voted for:
Reform Party
Progressive Conservative Party (or Alberta and Manitoba)
Canadian Alliance
Conservative Party
Libertarian Party
Wildrose Party
Yukon Party
United Conservative Party
;)
:lol: :hug: I feel this. I have voted in fewer elections but I've voted for:
Green Party
Labour Party
Lib Dems (mistakes were made :( :x)
Trade Union and Socialist Coalition
Far from a one party voter :ph34r:
I'm a former Catalan nationalist conservative voter (hey, I was young!) :lol:
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 06, 2020, 12:58:07 PM
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/MerryEnergeticAmericanavocet-mobile.mp4
Outstanding
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 12:38:38 PM
Philadelphia: protecting American democracy since 1775.
To "Hail Columbia"
End! End the Trumpist reign
May Philadelphia's name
Ring through the world with loud applause
Ring through the world with loud applause
Sure they threw things at Santa Claus
and cheered at Michael Irvin's fall
Like when they broke the glass at that Flyer's game
They have earned ever lasting fame
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
:)
If you ever go, don't go to Geno's or Pat's. You want to go to Steve's Prince of Steaks instead. Same or higher quality, much shorter lines/no lines at all.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
Amazing accent? :hmm:
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:11:24 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
Amazing accent? :hmm:
I have a colleague in Malta who went to high school and college in Philly. He is about 5 feet tall and has a coarse raspy voice and speaks with an awesome Philly mobster accent. :D
Why did he move to Malta? Tired of those snowy Philly winters I guess.
@Syt I wonder if you would think my accent is 'mobster'. :hmm:
The funny thing is, growing up in Philly a few times people asked me if I was someplace else. A chick I went to high school with once asked me if I was originally from Texas. :huh:
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:09:24 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
:)
If you ever go, don't go to Geno's or Pat's. You want to go to Steve's Prince of Steaks instead. Same or higher quality, much shorter lines/no lines at all.
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:13:37 PM
Why did he move to Malta? Tired of those snowy Philly winters I guess.
He's Maltese :mellow:
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:14:23 PM
@Syt I wonder if you would think my accent is 'mobster'. :hmm:
The funny thing is, growing up in Philly a few times people asked me if I was someplace else. A chick I went to high school with once asked me if I was originally from Texas. :huh:
I'd expect you to have a redneck accent. "Y'all" and stuff :P
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:15:54 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:13:37 PM
Why did he move to Malta? Tired of those snowy Philly winters I guess.
He's Maltese :mellow:
Ah ok. I thought he was a native Philadelphian.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
What proposed Languish meet up? :huh:
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:16:29 PM
I'd expect you to have a redneck accent. "Y'all" and stuff :P
He was pretty yankee when I met him.
But he may be overcompensating now that he moved southwards.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:16:29 PM
I'd expect you to have a redneck accent. "Y'all" and stuff :P
Actually, I met up with a high school friend of mine in San Francisco a few years back, and within 30 seconds of us chatting he said "Wow, I can tell you live in the South now." :hmm:
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
What proposed Languish meet up? :huh:
It's OK Cal, he's cool.
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
What proposed Languish meet up? :huh:
Malthus wants us all to go to Philly at some point when this pandemic is over. Or when Dorsey just convinces us all to ignore it.
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:11:24 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
Amazing accent? :hmm:
I like the American accents that are, to my ear, distinctive. Philly is definitely one of them :lol:
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
What proposed Languish meet up? :huh:
Just a thought for now - some of us were thinking that, once the pandemic is over (if it is over), we might do a Languish meet up in Philly, as a bit of celebration.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 06, 2020, 12:58:07 PM
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/MerryEnergeticAmericanavocet-mobile.mp4
Thanks for that, the in-laws in PA are loving this :lol:
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:15:54 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:13:37 PM
Why did he move to Malta? Tired of those snowy Philly winters I guess.
He's Maltese :mellow:
Good people
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Hey did Hitler have a big Austrian/South German accent? Just curious.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:18:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
Come to the proposed languish meet up - you can show us all the best places! 😀
What proposed Languish meet up? :huh:
Malthus wants us all to go to Philly at some point when this pandemic is over. Or when Dorsey just convinces us all to ignore it.
Been to Philly before, but would love any excuse to visit back the US. PLus I've never been in any Languish meet.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 06, 2020, 11:50:28 AM
The context totally changes if Democrats pick up the Senate seats, but focusing just on the headlines of Biden winning Georgia is missing something.
If the Democrats somehow take one or both of those Senate seats in January then we can talk about how purple Georgia is going to be.
Barely beating Trump with lots of Libertarian votes is not going to cut it.
Agree. The Senate seats are the biggest deal (arguably the state legislature, but not sure what to do about that).
The Senate seats will be very interesting. I can't imagine many people splitting tickets, so I guess they go the same way.
-BOTH republicans are incumbents involved in insider trading accusations after early covid-19 briefings.
-One democrat is an Atlanta white dude and the other a black minister--they complement each other well--the two factions of the democratic party in Georgia has a candidate to turn out for.
-The Democrats won't have Trump to get their base to the polls.
-The Republicans won't have Trump to get the rednecks to the polls (and I imagine some will be angry at the state GOP for allowing Biden to "steal" the state from Trump).
Republicans are the favorite--it seems they win every special election in Georgia.
Shouldn't a languish meet be in Gettysburg if it is going to be in PA? (trying an ACW hijack of the meet location)
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Hey did Hitler have a big Austrian/South German accent? Just curious.
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
Isn't there a recording of him speaking with Mannerheim, in which he sounds totally different in terms of dialect, tone of voice, etc.?
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:09:24 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
:)
If you ever go, don't go to Geno's or Pat's. You want to go to Steve's Prince of Steaks instead. Same or higher quality, much shorter lines/no lines at all.
Dalessandro's is the place to go, or so I was told. Actually, I was taken there without being told anything.
It's all about the food with those folks.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 01:19:18 PM
Just a thought for now - some of us were thinking that, once the pandemic is over (if it is over), we might do a Languish meet up in Philly, as a bit of celebration.
I'd be down, though when I'm up there I'm always in Jersey now, so I guess I could hit it up on the way to Jersey, or back from.
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:25:13 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
Isn't there a recording of him speaking with Mannerheim, in which he sounds totally different in terms of dialect, tone of voice, etc.?
That's about the only one, I think. Again, never really paid much attention to it. Or cared. :lol:
Quote from: Maladict on November 06, 2020, 01:25:24 PM
Dalessandro's is the place to go, or so I was told. Actually, I was taken there without being told anything.
It's all about the food with those folks.
Never heard of it. Keep in mind there's a steak shop on practically every corner in Philly. Steve's is actually in Langhorne, not Philly proper.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Hey did Hitler have a big Austrian/South German accent? Just curious.
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
While hanging out near Berchtesgaden I did notice that distinctive rolling R quite a lot among the locals.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 01:18:21 PM
I like the American accents that are, to my ear, distinctive. Philly is definitely one of them :lol:
My uncle has what I think of as a classic, strong Philly accent. I'll put up a video of a speech he gave in TBR.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Hey did Hitler have a big Austrian/South German accent? Just curious.
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
What about his "r" sound?
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:26:42 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 06, 2020, 01:25:24 PM
Dalessandro's is the place to go, or so I was told. Actually, I was taken there without being told anything.
It's all about the food with those folks.
Never heard of it. Keep in mind there's a steak shop on practically every corner in Philly. Steve's is actually in Langhorne, not Philly proper.
Well, it's not near a gas station. :P
Here is that Mannerheim recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9AVu6KupNg
But I have a hard time accepting that answer. American politicians with regional accents like JFK, LBJ, FDR, and Dubya are really distinctive. They don't go away when giving a speech.
Quote from: The Brain on November 06, 2020, 01:28:07 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:23:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:20:00 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
It happens. I sound more Austrian than German these days.
Hey did Hitler have a big Austrian/South German accent? Just curious.
Hard to say - his speeches were quite exaggerated (though he made an effort for proper German, I'd say?), and we have very little record of how he spoke provately. Can't say I ever really paid much attention to it or listened to many of his speeches. While he had certain speech mannerism that are popular in parodies, I don't think they were particularly Austrian.
What about his "r" sound?
So exaggerated it's more parody than accent.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
It would be awesome when this shit year is over and the pandemic is done, to do a Languish trip to Philadelphia ... may be a dream, but a fun one. 😀
I'm in. :D
Also, for the LotR fans among us...
https://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/comments/jozllr/on_the_dawn_of_the_third_day_look_to_the_east/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:30:12 PM
Here is that Mannerheim recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9AVu6KupNg
But I have a hard time accepting that answer. American politicians with regional accents like JFK, LBJ, FDR, and Dubya are really distinctive. They don't go away when giving a speech.
Maggie Thatcher's a famous example here. She did elocution lessons when she became Tory leader - largely because people thought she was "shrill" and housewifely. So it lowered her voice significantly (it's really interesting seeing pre and post examples) but also got rid of quite a distinctive Lincolnshire burr.
From what I understand she kept her new voice even in private conversations.
I'm actually looking forward to seeing how Gillian Anderson handles Thatcher's voice in The Queen. :)
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 12:39:17 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 12:33:12 PM
Did I mention that I love Philadelphia? I've never been there before, but watching the numbers creep up there ...
I have a soft spot for Philadelphia despite never having been there: Rocky, cheesesteaks, it's Always Sunny, Gritty, rioting sportsfans and I've met loads of Americans travelling and the few I've met from Philadelphia have been great fun and have an amazing accent.
Wanted to visit for a while - mainly to try the cheesesteaks in their natural territory.
The cheesesteaks are, honestly, nothing to write home about. And I tried them in one of their traditional spots (Mihali took me there back in the day).
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:35:24 PM
I'm actually looking forward to seeing how Gillian Anderson handles Thatcher's voice in The Queen. :)
The Crown!
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 01:37:11 PM
The cheesesteaks are, honestly, nothing to write home about.
:o
(https://64.media.tumblr.com/8e4ee15693d4d004055ff75587e1e4dd/456c0488746bb56f-57/s400x600/b22cdb112dc0c5c77d78b76c8172439270605420.gif)
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 06, 2020, 01:38:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:35:24 PM
I'm actually looking forward to seeing how Gillian Anderson handles Thatcher's voice in The Queen. :)
The Crown!
Oops.... yeah. :blush:
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:30:12 PM
Here is that Mannerheim recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9AVu6KupNg
But I have a hard time accepting that answer. American politicians with regional accents like JFK, LBJ, FDR, and Dubya are really distinctive. They don't go away when giving a speech.
A small hint of an accent maybe, but mostly high German. Not even very Bavarian which you might expect because he spent so much time in Munich. Keep in mind that Hitler wasn't overly fond of his rural heritage and obsessively rehearsed his speeches so that might explain it.
A parallel might be Austrian actors in German TV shows. Many can speak High German without Austrian inflections because of their acting school training, and there were actors where I wasn't aware they were Austrian, originally (like Christoph Waltz who first showed up in made for TV German movies). A similar case might be Scottish actors losing their Scots accent for some roles.
Cheesesteaks are one of the worst things I've ever eaten. Shit meat with shit cheese with shit bread. It's not even good as a fast food.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2020, 01:54:10 PM
Cheesesteaks are one of the worst things I've ever eaten. Shit meat with shit cheese with shit bread. It's not even good as a fast food.
In some places you can get decent cheese with them, but some of the traditionalists will only use the spray variety. :x
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 01:33:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 01:30:12 PM
Here is that Mannerheim recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9AVu6KupNg
But I have a hard time accepting that answer. American politicians with regional accents like JFK, LBJ, FDR, and Dubya are really distinctive. They don't go away when giving a speech.
Maggie Thatcher's a famous example here. She did elocution lessons when she became Tory leader - largely because people thought she was "shrill" and housewifely. So it lowered her voice significantly (it's really interesting seeing pre and post examples) but also got rid of quite a distinctive Lincolnshire burr.
From what I understand she kept her new voice even in private conversations.
But accents are very tied up in perception of class in the UK.
In the US I think politicians like to keep or even emphasize their accents in order to appear more folksy and relatable.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 01:56:06 PM
In some places you can get decent cheese with them, but some of the traditionalists will only use the spray variety. :x
:rolleyes: No. Pat's and Geno's use wiz to keep the lines moving. As a kid I NEVER ate that shit on a steak. Provolone if available, American 'cheese' (hey, it's still better than wiz) if not.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 01:57:09 PM
In the US I think politicians like to keep or even emphasize their accents in order to appear more folksy and relatable.
Right, it's the opposite of the UK, I guess. You don't want to sound like an "out of touch elite".
Quote from: Caliga on November 06, 2020, 01:57:10 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 01:56:06 PM
In some places you can get decent cheese with them, but some of the traditionalists will only use the spray variety. :x
:rolleyes: No. Pat's and Geno's use wiz to keep the lines moving. As a kid I NEVER ate that shit on a steak. Provolone if available, American 'cheese' (hey, it's still better than wiz) if not.
I went to Pat or Geno's, can't remember which one (the Democrat one), and you could choose which cheese. The other one only served Cheez Wiz.
I'm not a fan of either place, but I think it's Geno's that does give you choices, but IIRC if you say nothing, you get DA WIZ.
What will be Trump's Argentina?
For the longest time I thought they were actual steaks of cheese and was excited by the prospect.
When I bothered to look them up and saw they were just a sandwich.... Disappointing.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 01:37:11 PM
The cheesesteaks are, honestly, nothing to write home about. And I tried them in one of their traditional spots (Mihali took me there back in the day).
I have had a few from places in London that are allegedly decent - and I enjoyed them :blush:
QuoteWhat will be Trump's Argentina?
Florida :lol:
QuoteIn some places you can get decent cheese with them, but some of the traditionalists will only use the spray variety. :x
Surely they're not a vehicle for decent cheese? :hmm:
Quote
I'm actually looking forward to seeing how Gillian Anderson handles Thatcher's voice in The Queen. :)
Everyone's going to be horny for Thatcher and it's going to be gross :lol:
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:06:49 PM
Everyone's going to be horny for Thatcher and it's going to be gross :lol:
:lol:
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 02:05:41 PM
For the longest time I thought they were actual steaks of cheese and was excited by the prospect.
When I bothered to look them up and saw they were just a sandwich.... Disappointing.
:lol:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
Okay, what do we do?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJo9EqX0Awuzwr?format=jpg&name=medium)
Democrats should be pushing to expedite the remaining counts and the certifying process and also to expedite resolution of all Trumpist legal challenges. The state Supreme Courts of the three "blue wall" states all are friendly and thus presumably can be counted on to reverse any obstacles to certifying the Electors on time. I don't think a federal judge would have the chutzpah to enjoin a state from certifying electors before the deadline but one has to just hope that doesn't happen and act very quickly to mandamus or appeal if it does.
QuoteRick Santorum on CNN literally saying "Democrats need to give Republicans, including Trump, time and space to work through their feelings about losing."
Man, just imagine the mockery if it was the other way around. :lmfao:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:06:49 PM
Everyone's going to be horny for Thatcher and it's going to be gross :lol:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcT8cNjMVKT05OX17zcrlF7ZJgri0pa9gUfwzw&usqp=CAU)
:hmm:
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Quote from: The Larch on November 06, 2020, 02:22:09 PM
QuoteRick Santorum on CNN literally saying "Democrats need to give Republicans, including Trump, time and space to work through their feelings about losing."
Man, just imagine the mockery if it was the other way around. :lmfao:
How very snowflakey.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Taxes? :w00t: :w00t:
This tweet was fun. :lol:
QuoteThe guy the GOP is sending to war in Philly vs. the actual Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFxJhzU8AAbDrT?format=jpg&name=900x900)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFxH39UYAAffXT?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
The hypocrisy is pretty much across the whole party, though, at this point. "Let's wreck shit and blame the Democrats for not picking up the pieces fast enough!"
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
Saying correct things selectively is still being dishonest, just like enforcing the law selectively is still being arbitrary.
I guess that means that the GOP now favors repealing the Trump tax cut and increasing taxes on the rich? Must be, right?
Joking of course. Accusation of mere hypocrisy is an understatement. Its a straight-on put up job.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
I mean said this yesterday:
QuoteBut I think their priority will be to win and for Biden to lose - but I think the work for that starts now, not in January. If they aren't wargaming how they're going to damage the new administration then they're in the wrong job. I don't think at this stage they particularly care about Trump, or even his supporters, because the election's over - it's just counting now (though they might do some "don't let them steal this one" GOTV stuff in Georgia for the Senate races).
And I think the best strategy to that is to be obstructive and low profile - which McConnell's great at, pivot to the national debt and attack big spending plans by Biden-Pelosi, but stop just short of shut-down. I think people will blame the President because he's higher profile and Pelosi because she showboats more than McConnell.
You know it's not like they're raising this because they've had a sudden attack of conscience or rectitude about the deficit. It's obviously just their political strategy - and it will probably work - but that's because too many people are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt like this, or say "well on the one hand they clearly apply this principle selectively and for partisan principle, on the other hand it is a good point" :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
I am excited about that. Let's go back to the 1990s tax rates. I think that might do it.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
He is right. But when the Republicans have power they work to increase the debt.
And we had the debt problem solved before Dubya made it a problem again for no reason at all.
If they actually cared about securing the federal debt for the future we could solve it. But none of the solutions are populist friendly sadly.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/774352221957390386/unknown.png)
Yeah usually I am relieved when these elections are over so everybody can go about their business and come back together.
But now it seems the Presidential election, and all its chaos, is an all day every day thing forever. At least for awhile.
Eventually people will get tired.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2020, 01:54:10 PM
Cheesesteaks are one of the worst things I've ever eaten. Shit meat with shit cheese with shit bread. It's not even good as a fast food.
I agree. I really looked forward to the first one I ate. I had heard so much about them. Didn't have a second.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
Apologist to the end
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
:lol:
Yeah, okay.... :rolleyes:
I guess BB should ask himself what he would think if the Conservative Party consistently made a big deal about something and then consistently undermined that very issue everytime they were in government would he continually think they were saying it in good faith?
(https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.NH0eYsW9Hq6yBpR0kkROQwHaFj&pid=Api)
Maybe this time the Republicans will take the debt seriously?
I am honestly still worn out from going around and around about this during the Obama Presidency only for the Republicans to blow up the debt AGAIN for no goddamn reason the second they had power.
Though Mitch has promised to try to get another stimulus through in the dead period. Maybe Lindsey is jumping the gun starting this farce going.
There is admittedly a piece of me that's interested - in a macabre way - to see how Graham revamps himself now that Trump is gone. Will he remain a Trump sycophant? Or will he morph to be a McConnel sycophant? What will that look like?
He's such a snake that his face makes me nearly as sick as McConnell's does. Still... like a train wreck, there's an interest in seeing how it turns out.
And again no populist party gives a fuck about debts. If the pre-Trump Republicans didn't care about it the post-Trump will care even less.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 03:07:40 PM
There is admittedly a piece of me that's interested - in a macabre way - to see how Graham revamps himself now that Trump is gone. Will he remain a Trump sycophant? Or will he morph to be a McConnel sycophant? What will that look like?
He's such a snake that his face makes me nearly as sick as McConnell's does. Still... like a train wreck, there's an interest in seeing how it turns out.
My wife had an answer to that, and it involved introducing the lot of them to a pit filled with fire ants ...
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:04:51 PM
Maybe this time the Republicans will take the debt seriously?
I am honestly still worn out from going around and around about this during the Obama Presidency only for the Republicans to blow up the debt AGAIN for no goddamn reason the second they had power.
The GOP is probably acting in bad faith here, sure.
But that doesn't mean President Biden should just ignore the issue! US budget deficit is going to hit $3 trillion dollars in 2020, adding to almost $27 trillion dollars in national debt.
Eddie S. Glaude about Trump in the political context of America:
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1158569576168402945?s=20
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:04:51 PM
Maybe this time the Republicans will take the debt seriously?
I am honestly still worn out from going around and around about this during the Obama Presidency only for the Republicans to blow up the debt AGAIN for no goddamn reason the second they had power.
The GOP is probably acting in bad faith here, sure.
But that doesn't mean President Biden should just ignore the issue! US budget deficit is going to hit $3 trillion dollars in 2020, adding to almost $27 trillion dollars in national debt.
No he shouldn't. It is a threat to the entire future of the United States.
God I will never not be mad about 2001. The idea we can just cut taxes and grow out of the debt is a lie. We have to do the austerity measures necessary.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Anyways, nice of them to already signal what will be the excuse to just refuse to do anything with the country for 4 years.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:14:30 PM
No he shouldn't. It is a threat to the entire future of the United States.
God I will never not be mad about 2001. The idea we can just cut taxes and grow out of the debt is a lie. We have to do the austerity measures necessary.
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 02:26:24 PM
Two days in and Republicans are starting to care about the debt/deficit - predictable and inevitable but still shameless:
QuoteSenate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
Case in point on my issues with the Republican Party. <_<
Just because Lindsey Graham is a galactic-sized hypocrite doesn't mean he's wrong.
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Do you guys really not understand BB's politics?
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:14:30 PM
No he shouldn't. It is a threat to the entire future of the United States.
God I will never not be mad about 2001. The idea we can just cut taxes and grow out of the debt is a lie. We have to do the austerity measures necessary.
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
Yes but we did it. In the 1990s we raised taxes and cut spending and did it while growing the economy and maintaining political stability. It was one of the greatest achievements in American History.
And then Dubya and the Republicans fucking burned it all down. I will never forgive them. Ever.
Well ok I will forgive them if they fixed the problem but most of those people are dead or out of office now so chances of redemption are basically zero at this point.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmKqLkZVgAAyRco?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
It won't win vote as long as people feel they are the only ones paying. Austerity that deepens economic inequality is predictably impopular (as it should). Income stagnation means that the recent episodes of famed prosperity have never really succeeded in dispelling the threat of austerity, while Republicans have succeeded in convincing people that it's poor people, black people, immigrants, urban people, coastal people, who are the parasites.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:19:17 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:14:30 PM
No he shouldn't. It is a threat to the entire future of the United States.
God I will never not be mad about 2001. The idea we can just cut taxes and grow out of the debt is a lie. We have to do the austerity measures necessary.
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
Yes but we did it. In the 1990s we raised taxes and cut spending and did it while growing the economy and maintaining political stability. It was one of the greatest achievements in American History.
And then Dubya and the Republicans fucking burned it all down. I will never forgive them. Ever.
Well ok I will forgive them if they fixed the problem but most of those people are dead or out of office now so chances of redemption are basically zero at this point.
:rolleyes: Someone forgets the dress with the mess. You can't just ignore huge things like that.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
There are loads of examples in Europe of austerity-supporting parties, perhaps surprisingly, winning election. It certainly helped the GOP in 2010. It is going to be what Republicans run on in 2022 - not as "austerity" but as the need to balance the books etc.
The crucial thing isn't that Republicans won't run on it - it's that given the choice between austerity and tax cuts they will choose tax cuts every time. Given that I think you can query whether they believe in or will actually do any austerity if you vote for them. They're a St. Augustine party "Lord, make me chaste—but not yet!"
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:19:17 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:14:30 PM
No he shouldn't. It is a threat to the entire future of the United States.
God I will never not be mad about 2001. The idea we can just cut taxes and grow out of the debt is a lie. We have to do the austerity measures necessary.
Yes, but austerity won't win votes.
Yes but we did it. In the 1990s we raised taxes and cut spending and did it while growing the economy and maintaining political stability. It was one of the greatest achievements in American History.
And then Dubya and the Republicans fucking burned it all down. I will never forgive them. Ever.
Well ok I will forgive them if they fixed the problem but most of those people are dead or out of office now so chances of redemption are basically zero at this point.
Yeah, juxtapose that to what happened in Canada. We went from big deficit spending to surplus by the mid 90s. All of the political fights then were about what to do with the surplus - pay down the debt (the Conservative approach); apply to new spending (the NDP approach). The liberals went with a little from column A and a little from column B with another bit added it to the budget as a safety measure. That more or less was the way of things through successive liberal and conservative governments until the 2008 meltdown.
The US on the other hand committed an unforced error.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:21:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmKqLkZVgAAyRco?format=jpg&name=small)
I feel like there's Downfall-style meme opportunity in Brian Blessed's Augustus - where are my eagles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-ohKuKy4_s
Or - is there anyone in Rome who has not slept with my daughter:
https://twitter.com/archivetvmus71/status/1181977161151983616?lang=en
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Because one of the very first issues I ever cared about in politics in my life was the national debt. Which is a problem that in both Canada and the US we manned up and solved - but now it's come back worse than ever.
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:21:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmKqLkZVgAAyRco?format=jpg&name=small)
.... Wot?
Pennsylvania, give me back my ballots!
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 06, 2020, 03:36:57 PM
Pennsylvania, give me back my ballots!
:lol:
Finally a reason to use this one: :nelson:
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 03:04:51 PM
Maybe this time the Republicans will take the debt seriously?
I am honestly still worn out from going around and around about this during the Obama Presidency only for the Republicans to blow up the debt AGAIN for no goddamn reason the second they had power.
The GOP is probably acting in bad faith here, sure.
But that doesn't mean President Biden should just ignore the issue! US budget deficit is going to hit $3 trillion dollars in 2020, adding to almost $27 trillion dollars in national debt.
Given that it's been Democratic Presidents who have addressed this directly and solely for the past couple of decades, I find it odd that you are expecting Graham and the Republicans to do this. :hmm:
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 03:34:17 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Because one of the very first issues I ever cared about in politics in my life was the national debt. Which is a problem that in both Canada and the US we manned up and solved - but now it's come back worse than ever.
Yes but they had 4 years to address it and decided to increase it instead. Then the first moment it seems they get pushes away from the honey jar of national debt they declare it the biggest issue evah neesing immediate action. They haven't even lost yet officially. This is some special kind of thick skin.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 03:39:29 PM
Given that it's been Democratic Presidents who have addressed this directly and solely for the past couple of decades, I find it odd that you are expecting Graham and the Republicans to do this. :hmm:
"Now that this slight unpleasantness is behind us, I think it is time we address an important issue: the punctuality of trains".
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 03:29:35 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:21:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmKqLkZVgAAyRco?format=jpg&name=small)
I feel like there's Downfall-style meme opportunity in Brian Blessed's Augustus - where are my eagles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-ohKuKy4_s
Or - is there anyone in Rome who has not slept with my daughter:
https://twitter.com/archivetvmus71/status/1181977161151983616?lang=en
I really have to watch I Claudius again, it's been nearly 2 decades...
Patrick Stewart having hair and acting evil is always fun.
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 03:49:45 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 03:29:35 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 06, 2020, 03:21:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmKqLkZVgAAyRco?format=jpg&name=small)
I feel like there's Downfall-style meme opportunity in Brian Blessed's Augustus - where are my eagles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-ohKuKy4_s
Or - is there anyone in Rome who has not slept with my daughter:
https://twitter.com/archivetvmus71/status/1181977161151983616?lang=en
I really have to watch I Claudius again, it's been nearly 2 decades...
It is hilarious watching it recently and seeing "Captain Picard" as the villainous Sejanus! 😄
Beat you Malthus!
Also the kindly old wand guy from Harry Potter as Caligula.
Fill a show with enough Brit actors and there's a decent chance a number of them will eventually appear in some dumb American stuff that makes them famous. :P
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 03:56:40 PM
Fill a show with enough Brit actors and there's a decent chance a number of them will eventually appear in some dumb American stuff that makes them famous. :P
:lol: It's inevitable - also true for Australian soaps.
Personal favourite in I Claudius is John Hurt's turn.
And the main thing that surprises me about Patrick Stewart is how handsome he is a young man. It makes a lot of sense because he was handsome/dignified when he was older. But it's still weird. (I know one girl with a thing for bald men who has an enormous crush on Patrick Stewart :lol:)
Lovely stat from a UK election nerd:
QuoteOne county in the US has picked the winner in every presidential election since 1916, save for once (1988): Blaine County, Montana.
Blaine voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
With nearly all the votes in, Joe Biden is carrying Blaine County.
Biden: 1589 (51%)
Trump: 1469 (47.1%)
(And in 1912, it went Bull Moose :))
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 03:34:17 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Because one of the very first issues I ever cared about in politics in my life was the national debt. Which is a problem that in both Canada and the US we manned up and solved - but now it's come back worse than ever.
Me to. I feel very strongly about this.
And you praising Lindsey Graham after he blew up the debt in 2017 is giving me a stroke so stop it :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 03:56:40 PM
Fill a show with enough Brit actors and there's a decent chance a number of them will eventually appear in some dumb American stuff that makes them famous. :P
:lol: It's inevitable - also true for Australian soaps.
Personal favourite in I Claudius is John Hurt's turn.
And the main thing that surprises me about Patrick Stewart is how handsome he is a young man. It makes a lot of sense because he was handsome/dignified when he was older. But it's still weird. (I know one girl with a thing for bald men who has an enormous crush on Patrick Stewart :lol:)
As Oberon :wub:
(https://www.shakespearegeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/card5_main-220x300.jpg)
Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2020, 01:54:10 PM
Cheesesteaks are one of the worst things I've ever eaten. Shit meat with shit cheese with shit bread. It's not even good as a fast food.
:yes: :cheers:
Patrick Stewart in the 90s/early 00s could have turned me. :blush:
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/4feef75126208b5825d84877a49b7e1e0dae5488/165_4_1635_981/master/1635.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=84183310cf0d7d6defe1cc257aaf3096)
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 03:56:40 PM
Fill a show with enough Brit actors and there's a decent chance a number of them will eventually appear in some dumb American stuff that makes them famous. :P
Also hilarious was hearing Derek Jacobi as the voice over for "In The Night Garden" when my kid was a toddler - sounded like Claudius let the lead poisioning get to his brain. 😄
I have to say, Patrick Stewart was one good looking man.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 04:18:22 PM
I have to say, Patrick Stewart was is one good looking man.
FYP :)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
An election official from Arizona was just on CNN saying that it was clear now that the President is trying to slow everything down.
All of this talk about fraudulent elections and all the apologists floating around defending it may just be a distraction from the real plan.
He's just delaying the inevitable. But what do you think "the real plan" is?
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 04:39:25 PM
He's just delaying the inevitable. But what do you think "the real plan" is?
It is all laid out in JR's post.
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
That's my view anyway.
What would they be selling out?
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
Someone tell that to the Republicans that are going into delay mode. I have no reason to not believe the election official from Arizona.
Quote from: The Brain on November 06, 2020, 04:46:00 PM
What would they be selling out?
Political capital. Destroying the Constitution for Donald might sell well to his hard core supporters but not much outside of that. And even once they do it it might not even work.
It might undermine their efforts to win the two seats in Georgia for one. Why risk it?
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 04:09:57 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 06, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 06, 2020, 03:56:40 PM
Fill a show with enough Brit actors and there's a decent chance a number of them will eventually appear in some dumb American stuff that makes them famous. :P
:lol: It's inevitable - also true for Australian soaps.
Personal favourite in I Claudius is John Hurt's turn.
And the main thing that surprises me about Patrick Stewart is how handsome he is a young man. It makes a lot of sense because he was handsome/dignified when he was older. But it's still weird. (I know one girl with a thing for bald men who has an enormous crush on Patrick Stewart :lol:)
As Oberon :wub:
Meri, don't forget he was Leondegrance in 'Excalibur' :bowler:
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 04:46:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
Someone tell that to the Republicans that are going into delay mode. I have no reason to not believe the election official from Arizona.
Hey if you are right, you are right.
But I will need to see some pretty convincing evidence that everybody is falling in line with this plan to buy it.
Trump lost this election but the Republicans won it to a degree. I think they will be eager to move forward to capitalize on what they have won, not sacrifice it all in a losing cause.
But hey maybe they are completely insane and self-destructive. I wouldn't be totally shocked. It just strikes me as unlikely.
Biden coming in under a cloud of controversy with a hostile Senate majority is almost perfect for them.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:50:24 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 04:46:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
Someone tell that to the Republicans that are going into delay mode. I have no reason to not believe the election official from Arizona.
Hey if you are right, you are right.
But I will need to see some pretty convincing evidence that everybody is falling in line with this plan to buy it.
Trump lost this election but the Republicans won it to a degree. I think they will be eager to move forward to capitalize on what they have won, not sacrifice it all in a losing cause.
But hey maybe they are completely insane and self-destructive. I wouldn't be totally shocked. It just strikes me as unlikely.
Biden coming in under a cloud of controversy with a hostile Senate majority is almost perfect for them.
I think Trump may grasp at any straws, and the GOP is largely so cowardly they will go along with it so as not to be seen as "disloyal".
I think it will fail dismally (as Trump court challenges have all failed so far) and the the GOP simply will not care - of Trump is tossed out on his ear, so much the better for them.
They can then go back to their favourite plan - making sure Biden can't get anything done, using complete obstructionism on every issue ... then blaming the Democrats for failure to accomplish anything.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
I think Trump may grasp at any straws, and the GOP is largely so cowardly they will go along with it so as not to be seen as "disloyal".
They will play along and look for the first off ramp they can find while blaming the Democrats.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 04:54:42 PM... then blaming the Democrats for failure to accomplish anything failing to compromise.
FYP
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:50:24 PM
Hey if you are right, you are right.
But I will need to see some pretty convincing evidence that everybody is falling in line with this plan to buy it.
I think Republicans who have an eye on 2024 are rowing in behind it - by my count Graham, Cruz, Haley and Cotton have all come out in support of Trump's nonsense.
Republicans who don't, aren't. And I think people will follow power which is sort of about reality, so I expect the people around Trump who are backing him will dwindle.
But Trump will never "concede". He'll never admit he lost. It'll always be an election he won that was stolen from him. Whether's saying that on Twitter, on Trump TV (OANN?), or on a rally stage in 2024 is much of a muchness.
QuoteTrump lost this election but the Republicans won it to a degree. I think they will be eager to move forward to capitalize on what they have won, not sacrifice it all in a losing cause.
Agreed and I think the Supreme Court would do the same. For the establishment Republican they don't need Trump right now and they'll dump him.
Quote from: Tyr on November 06, 2020, 06:21:40 AM
I correct my earlier post about the press having generally sensible takes.
(https://i.ibb.co/z2ZP1rd/trumpo.png)
QuoteIt's Gritty, mascot of the Philadelphia Flyers hockey team and working class hero.
ANNOUNCEMENT. I NOW HAVE A (ice. Not real) HOCKEY TEAM.
Field hockey is for girls.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:50:24 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 04:46:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
Someone tell that to the Republicans that are going into delay mode. I have no reason to not believe the election official from Arizona.
Hey if you are right, you are right.
But I will need to see some pretty convincing evidence that everybody is falling in line with this plan to buy it.
Trump lost this election but the Republicans won it to a degree. I think they will be eager to move forward to capitalize on what they have won, not sacrifice it all in a losing cause.
But hey maybe they are completely insane and self-destructive. I wouldn't be totally shocked. It just strikes me as unlikely.
Biden coming in under a cloud of controversy with a hostile Senate majority is almost perfect for them.
I think Trump may grasp at any straws, and the GOP is largely so cowardly they will go along with it so as not to be seen as "disloyal".
I think it will fail dismally (as Trump court challenges have all failed so far) and the the GOP simply will not care - of Trump is tossed out on his ear, so much the better for them.
They can then go back to their favourite plan - making sure Biden can't get anything done, using complete obstructionism on every issue ... then blaming the Democrats for failure to accomplish anything.
I agree that is the way this will likely play out. I am not sure we should assume that most Republicans will grow a spine now after what we have seen them do over the last four years.
Checking the ticker Georgia seems done. Votes remaining has gone over into negative.
But damn everything is going slow.
And Georgia is going to a recount after it is finished the first round of counting.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 05:08:21 PM
And Georgia is going to a recount after it is finished the first round of counting.
Don't forget the overseas votes.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 05:10:43 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 05:08:21 PM
And Georgia is going to a recount after it is finished the first round of counting.
Don't forget the overseas votes.
Right, I had :)
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
I think Trump may grasp at any straws, and the GOP is largely so cowardly they will go along with it so as not to be seen as "disloyal".
I think it will fail dismally (as Trump court challenges have all failed so far) and the the GOP simply will not care - of Trump is tossed out on his ear, so much the better for them.
They can then go back to their favourite plan - making sure Biden can't get anything done, using complete obstructionism on every issue ... then blaming the Democrats for failure to accomplish anything.
I think it's situational. If this were down to one state and they'd lost the Senate then I think Republicans would back Trump all the way.
It looks like it's closer to 5 states and they've kept the Senate. They might not be profiles in courage, but I just don't see the upside for them standing with Trump (unless they're running in 2024). If they back away they can, in February 2021, say they didn't always agree with Trump and they told him no when he went too far and they put country first and even they can't work with Joe Biden, he's too extreme.
It's a great opportunity for many Republicans (especially as reality will grind on - Biden will receive briefings and beefed up security, transition teams will start working even if Trump says he's being cheated) to build credibility at minimum cost - unless they're looking at the 2024 primary.
Quote from: Malthus on November 06, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:50:24 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 04:46:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 04:45:04 PM
I don't believe such a crazy plan would succeed. The Republicans are eager to move on to cash in an ineffectual Biden Presidency with a huge win in 2022. I don't think they are going to sell out everything just to keep Donald around.
Someone tell that to the Republicans that are going into delay mode. I have no reason to not believe the election official from Arizona.
Hey if you are right, you are right.
But I will need to see some pretty convincing evidence that everybody is falling in line with this plan to buy it.
Trump lost this election but the Republicans won it to a degree. I think they will be eager to move forward to capitalize on what they have won, not sacrifice it all in a losing cause.
But hey maybe they are completely insane and self-destructive. I wouldn't be totally shocked. It just strikes me as unlikely.
Biden coming in under a cloud of controversy with a hostile Senate majority is almost perfect for them.
I think Trump may grasp at any straws, and the GOP is largely so cowardly they will go along with it so as not to be seen as "disloyal".
I think it will fail dismally (as Trump court challenges have all failed so far) and the the GOP simply will not care - of Trump is tossed out on his ear, so much the better for them.
They can then go back to their favourite plan - making sure Biden can't get anything done, using complete obstructionism on every issue ... then blaming the Democrats for failure to accomplish anything.
Jesus. All of this is so fucking disheartening. :(
Cel and larchie? Either of you up for a on-paper-only wife so that I can get Spanish citizenship? :unsure: I'll buy us an apartment.
@ Sheilbh Not just the 2024 primary though. I think they will all worry about being primaried by Trumpists if they are disloyal now.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 06, 2020, 01:54:10 PM
Cheesesteaks are one of the worst things I've ever eaten. Shit meat with shit cheese with shit bread. It's not even good as a fast food.
It's supposed to be very thinly sliced ribeye, which is a damn good cut. So no, not shit meat.
Syt, you tried to cook one at home; check out the Binging with Babish video for a good how to if still interested.
What the hell is the point of the Alaskimo law that mail ins can't be counted until a week after E-day? :wacko:
The states that don't allow counting to begin until the day of are bad enough, but there at least i see the argument that leaking partial counts could sway the election.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2020, 05:31:03 PM
What the hell is the point of the Alaskimo law that mail ins can't be counted until a week after E-day? :wacko:
The states that don't allow counting to begin until the day of are bad enough, but there at least i see the argument that leaking partial counts could sway the election.
Presumably that is give time to double check the person did not also vote on election day. Here in BC our mail in votes are not counted until two weeks later for the same reason.
I think it's pretty obvious that Trump is going to do whatever it takes to steal the election now, after all, he always accuses his opponents of the same thing in whatever he's doing. And I'm sure the Republican party will fall into line anyway because they've done whatever they've can to game the system for at least a decade now. No reason why they should stop now, because there's been no penalty for doing so, even now.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
@ Sheilbh Not just the 2024 primary though. I think they will all worry about being primaried by Trumpists if they are disloyal now.
Yeah I think there is a large element of this. They are also all jockeying to inherit Trump's supporters. Being seen as a true Trump defender will help that effort. The real question for the future is will Trump supporters show up at the polls for anyone without "Trump" in their name.
I'd say there is a strong overlap between Trump supporters and people who raved for Sarah Palin, so my initial answer would be yes.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
@ Sheilbh Not just the 2024 primary though. I think they will all worry about being primaried by Trumpists if they are disloyal now.
I think that's a risk - that the Trumps wreak revenge on RINOs who were insufficiently loyal/stabbed him in the back in 2022. But I think most Republicans recognise reality (I think Trump does) and would rather the cloud of controversy (which they're creating) to be on Biden coming into office not them trying to help Trump cling to it.
And unlike in 2008 - 2010 - they're in a position to block things so they can build a record of obstruction/standing up to Biden that will probably help deal with any primaries.
I think McConnell's comments are striking, McCarthy (one of Trump's favourite Congressional Republicans) has already walked back his claim that Trump won the election.
Quote from: PJL on November 06, 2020, 05:41:09 PM
I think it's pretty obvious that Trump is going to do whatever it takes to steal the election now, after all, he always accuses his opponents of the same thing in whatever he's doing. And I'm sure the Republican party will fall into line anyway because they've done whatever they've can to game the system for at least a decade now. No reason why they should stop now, because there's been no penalty for doing so, even now.
"Falling in line" would essentially mean the state legislature declaring that the vote is fraudulent and choosing the state's electors themselves. I'd be happy to bet you that will not happen.
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 05:12:54 PM
Cel and larchie? Either of you up for a on-paper-only wife so that I can get Spanish citizenship? :unsure: I'll buy us an apartment.
That is pretty smart. Get me to adopt you and marry one of them. All bases covered.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 06:16:56 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 06, 2020, 05:12:54 PM
Cel and larchie? Either of you up for a on-paper-only wife so that I can get Spanish citizenship? :unsure: I'll buy us an apartment.
That is pretty smart. Get me to adopt you and marry one of them. All bases covered.
:yes:
One way or another, I have somewhere safe to go. :sleep:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2020, 06:08:31 PM
Quote from: PJL on November 06, 2020, 05:41:09 PM
I think it's pretty obvious that Trump is going to do whatever it takes to steal the election now, after all, he always accuses his opponents of the same thing in whatever he's doing. And I'm sure the Republican party will fall into line anyway because they've done whatever they've can to game the system for at least a decade now. No reason why they should stop now, because there's been no penalty for doing so, even now.
"Falling in line" would essentially mean the state legislature declaring that the vote is fraudulent and choosing the state's electors themselves. I'd be happy to bet you that will not happen.
Pennsylvania, Arizona & Georgia state legislature are all controlled by the Republicans. Given Alaska will go for Trump, and assuming North Carolina goes for Trump, then those plus the 3 contested states will give Trump the EC votes needed. So it's a plausible scenario, especially given that Trump has given them plenty of hints on making it illegal, given the pandemic.
Quote from: PJL on November 06, 2020, 07:02:15 PM
Pennsylvania, Arizona & Georgia state legislature are all controlled by the Republicans. Given Alaska will go for Trump, and assuming North Carolina goes for Trump, then those plus the 3 contested states will give Trump the EC votes needed. So it's a plausible scenario, especially given that Trump has given them plenty of hints on making it illegal, given the pandemic.
And I think it is not plausible.
Maybe I'm being naive, but I think that at this point making Trump a president will be so obviously incendiary and illegitimate that GOP just won't have the balls to do it. There is no need to do it either, they've got the Senate and thus the judiciary, they can weather the loss of presidency.
I can see them at least giving it some thought if Democrats had a safe Senate majority, at that point emotions may drive them to cross the Rubicon and see what happens, but in a situation where Trump was the only thing about GOP that lost this time around, they really have no need to do it.
I think you're right. At least I hope you are.
So do you guys think the "defund the police" and "pack the court" rhetoric hurt the Dems downballot?
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
So do you guys think the "defund the police" and "pack the court" rhetoric hurt the Dems downballot?
I think the first one definitely did, possibly catastrophically so. Not only is the chant stupid on its face, but it also struck right into the heart of many white people's deep seated fear. Fear is the greatest motivator, the single most effective way to turn the lights off up on top.
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
So do you guys think the "defund the police" and "pack the court" rhetoric hurt the Dems downballot?
Defunding the police is kind of ridiculous.
First it is a phony call anyway. It is just calling for bureaucratic restructuring of law enforcement that may or may not help anything.
Second even if it wasn't do we really want to handicap law enforcement at a time when everybody is talking about militias and civil wars?
But to your central point it obviously did since the only time I heard that rhetoric coming from candidates in Texas it was Republicans so they clearly knew those activist chants were very bad for us and very good for them.
I mean I even heard that MJ Hegar was going to defund the police if elected which is kind of difficult to do in the US Senate. Our state rep was also going to defund the police...I guess the Texas Rangers? No idea how he was going to do that in state house.
Which just shows what a juicy piece of meat it was to Republican strategists.
I am kind of relieved it did not gain more traction than it did frankly. Culture War activists are a cross we have to bear.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 07:53:28 PM
but it also struck right into the heart of many white people's deep seated fear.
And I would think black people are not too excited about fearful George Zimmermans patrolling the neighborhood.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 07:56:56 PM
I am kind of relieved it did not gain more traction than it did frankly. Culture War activists are a cross we have to bear.
I remember how it first started:
Woke Brigade: "DEFUND THE POLICE!"
Washington Post Editorial: "What defunding the police means is that police will not be defunded, but rather it will be encouraged to shoot less unarmed black people."
Woke Brigage: "No, when we said defund the police, we meant defund the police."
Washington Post Editorial (to themselves): "JFC, we were trying to throw you a lifeline. :frusty:"
The woke/cancel culture brigade & Trumpists are just two sides of the same coin.
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
So do you guys think the "defund the police" and "pack the court" rhetoric hurt the Dems downballot?
Yup. Not much.
I think the rioting and looting probably did more than the chants and slogans.
edit: I mean yes to defund and not much to pack.
Yeah that kind of put me off protesting. I don't want to be a cover for violence and criminal activity.
And I notice whenever the Trumpists gather together I think it makes them more terrifying and insane looking and I think hurts their cause as well.
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
So do you guys think the "defund the police" and "pack the court" rhetoric hurt the Dems downballot?
Yup. Not much.
I think the rioting and looting probably did more than the chants and slogans.
I think one compounded the other. When you're watching the rioting happen, and you're on the side of that involuntarily donates their property for the good of the cause (or fear that you may be), one of the least comforting things to hear is that some want to defund the police.
Every time I play the latest version of HOI 4, the Spanish Civil War make me feel a little uncomfortable. You have the organized but deplorable Nationalists starting with the element of surprise and gaining ground, you have hapless Republicans always being one or more steps behind, and just when they're about to regain their footing the Anarchists stage an uprising, feeling that Republicans are too unwilling and too incompetent to further their causes.
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 03:34:17 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 03:15:13 PM
Any particular reason you suddenly feel the need to defend these fucking gang of spineless sleezeballs who were quite alright to close rank and follow this utter piece of shit Trump?
Because one of the very first issues I ever cared about in politics in my life was the national debt. Which is a problem that in both Canada and the US we manned up and solved - but now it's come back worse than ever.
You should have taken finance rather than law. |It's a different reality. As well,you would have far richer.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I also didn't hear too much about it, but for a different reason. I think a lot of people thought so what if he does?
This is just pure gut obviously.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
Well, he certainly won't now.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 06, 2020, 09:14:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
Well, he certainly won't now.
Indeed.
Quote from: DGuller on November 06, 2020, 08:27:30 PM
Every time I play the latest version of HOI 4, the Spanish Civil War make me feel a little uncomfortable. You have the organized but deplorable Nationalists starting with the element of surprise and gaining ground, you have hapless Republicans always being one or more steps behind, and just when they're about to regain their footing the Anarchists stage an uprising, feeling that Republicans are too unwilling and too incompetent to further their causes.
I think it is likely that we will see more unrest in the future. We already have unrest now; some of those Qanon assholes were plotting to shoot up the place where they doing the vote count in Philadelphia. If Trump and his henchmen actually succeed in getting Pennsylvania to throw out the vote and have the legislature crown Trump... Think American Maidan.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
27,130 in PA :nelson:
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
Because he is Joe Biden. Bipartisan Joe who wants to be buds with everybody.
He said he would form a bipartisan committee to explore the issue. I am sure the Republicans would have been big fans.
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
His coyness certainly didn't hurt turnout on either side.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 06, 2020, 10:48:40 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
His coyness certainly didn't hurt turnout on either side.
Yeah the coyness was done out of some political calculation, I don't remember exactly.
But it wasn't going to happen.
I just heard Joe's speech and he is so conciliatory and wholesome about us all coming together to build the future it sounds so 20 years ago. It was all nice to hear but...it sounds pretty out of touch with the kind of situation he will be walking into.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 10:59:05 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 06, 2020, 10:48:40 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
His coyness certainly didn't hurt turnout on either side.
Yeah the coyness was done out of some political calculation, I don't remember exactly.
But it wasn't going to happen.
I just heard Joe's speech and he is so conciliatory and wholesome about us all coming together to build the future it sounds so 20 years ago. It was all nice to hear but...it sounds pretty out of touch with the kind of situation he will be walking into.
I don't think he's naive as to how difficult his job is going to be with an obstructionist Senate and the vitriolic political discourse from the right. He's been campaigning for President for months and saw the obstructionism first hand as Vice President. But he's being elected president now and saying how shitty the other side is acting and how unfair his detractors are isn't particularly presidential.
Yeah Valmy has been listening to Trump too much these past four years.
Meadows tested positive. Has been to how many events in the last week?
Quote from: katmai on November 06, 2020, 11:12:00 PM
Yeah Valmy has been listening to Trump too much these past four years.
Very true.
I wasn't saying that Joe shouldn't say things like that I was just saying how it felt under the circumstances.
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 11:22:27 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 06, 2020, 11:12:00 PM
Yeah Valmy has been listening to Trump too much these past four years.
Very true.
I wasn't saying that Joe shouldn't say things like that I was just saying how it felt under the circumstances.
no I know, it feels weird after all this time.
Well, it's been fun, but the last few pages here and in a few other topics have reminded me why I rarely visit anymore. Apparently we can agree on it being good that Trump is gone and remarkably little else.
There's too much agreement here, wtf are you looking for?
Quote from: Barrister on November 06, 2020, 12:14:25 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 06, 2020, 12:09:08 PM
Oh I was definitely calling out your claim of being a Never Trumper. Turns out it was always only about the front man and not his policies.
There's lots I don't like about Trump's policies - his insistence on trade wars, his in-your-face-racism, his unconcern with the debt.
But would I have supported a sane, rational person who ran on that same platform, when the opponent was Hillary? I dunno - it's hard to tease out where the insanity begins in his overall policy platform.
How can this not be disqualifying, in and of itself?
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 07, 2020, 12:08:49 AM
Well, it's been fun, but the last few pages here and in a few other topics have reminded me why I rarely visit anymore. Apparently we can agree on it being good that Trump is gone and remarkably little else.
:unsure: Oh I guess I missed our ferocious disagreement.
Well fair enough. Hope you drop by again at some point.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 07, 2020, 12:08:49 AM
Well, it's been fun, but the last few pages here and in a few other topics have reminded me why I rarely visit anymore. Apparently we can agree on it being good that Trump is gone and remarkably little else.
Girl
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the White House... :lol:
Quote from: derspiess on November 06, 2020, 10:25:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 06, 2020, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah I didn't hear too much about the court packing. I think everyone knew Biden would never do that.
I didn't know he wouldn't. He refused to answer the question. How did everyone else know he wouldn't.
Because he did answer the question. He said he wasn't a fan of the idea.
When will this be over? And when it is over, will the republicans rage about The Steal as long as the Democrats did over Russian meddling?
Quote from: Liep on November 07, 2020, 05:06:44 AM
When will this be over? And when it is over, will the republicans rage about The Steal as long as the Democrats did over Russian meddling?
No.
Far longer. Remember, Benghazi is still a thing.
Quote from: Liep on November 07, 2020, 05:06:44 AM
When will this be over? And when it is over, will the republicans rage about The Steal as long as the Democrats did over Russian meddling?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmLJwQjVcAAGepS?format=jpg&name=small)
So will they continue their 1 vote/minute count over the weekend or we are paused now until Monday?
Quote from: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 05:51:07 AM
So will they continue their 1 vote/minute count over the weekend or we are paused now until Monday?
Absolutely love Nevada who've announced they won't be done until 12 November because there is absolutely no sense of urgency to any of this :lol:
We need to send an emergency delegation of the grannies of Sunderland South.
Something to pass the time while they count an extra vote or two in PA.
(https://forumcontent.paradoxplaza.com/public/637890/1604749972386.png)
If Joe Biden wins, George Soros will wreck our savior Donald J. Trump.
Black Lives Matter will take away Thomas Jefferson.
Plausible :hmm:
If Joe Biden wins, BLM will control fossil fuels.
Taco trucks will desecrate the children ?!
Taco trucks sexualise Baby Yoda
Windmill cancer will sniff the suburbs. I don't know how much less sense it makes compared to satan worshipping child eaters.
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 07:34:30 AM
If Joe Biden wins, BLM will control fossil fuels.
That does actually sounds like something someone would come up with.
Antifas will ban the suburbs.
Wasn't this something Trump actually said?
Sheilbh, explain :lol:
Quote
Standard Sport
@standardsport
A banner reading 'World Knows Trump Won #MAGA' has been spotted flying above Goodison Park and the Liverpool area.
LIVE: http://bit.ly/evemun0711
#EVEMUN
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmOEiPWXEAIb0v2?format=jpg&name=small)
If Joe Biden wins, bisexuals will force sex changes on the coal industry. :ph34r:
Oh and Meri, if Finland is an option: https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/05/finns_woo_techies/
Quote from: Solmyr on November 07, 2020, 08:35:35 AM
Oh and Meri, if Finland is an option: https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/05/finns_woo_techies/
I thought it was determined that I would be every Finns' worst nightmare. Loud, opinionated, expressive, overly friendly. I mean, I'm an extrovert's extrovert. I'm fairly sure that wouldn't play well there. :lol:
I would think the world thinks the person with 4 million more votes wins an election.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
Sheilbh, explain :lol:
Quote
Standard Sport
@standardsport
A banner reading 'World Knows Trump Won #MAGA' has been spotted flying above Goodison Park and the Liverpool area.
LIVE: http://bit.ly/evemun0711
#EVEMUN
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmOEiPWXEAIb0v2?format=jpg&name=small)
Given the colours, sadly, Mancunians :(
The 2020 election as WWE wrestling match: https://twitter.com/90sWWE/status/1324870695738871809?s=20
:lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:34:08 AM
Black Lives Matter will take away Thomas Jefferson.
Plausible :hmm:
ERB Reference (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-ZblMfZpuw)?
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 09:01:34 AM
The 2020 election as WWE wrestling match: https://twitter.com/90sWWE/status/1324870695738871809?s=20
:lol:
Stone Cold Gritty! :lmfao:
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 07:31:38 AM
If Joe Biden wins, George Soros will wreck our savior Donald J. Trump.
If Joe Biden wins, illegal aliens will touch our savior Donald J. Trump.
:hmm:
George Soros is an illegal alien?
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 07, 2020, 12:08:49 AM
Well, it's been fun, but the last few pages here and in a few other topics have reminded me why I rarely visit anymore. Apparently we can agree on it being good that Trump is gone and remarkably little else.
Are you looking for an echo chamber or a discussion forum?
CNN projects Biden wins. :nelson:
:w00t: :w00t: :w00t:
:w00t:
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325088995773132803
QuoteWhat in the actual...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmOpav5W4AAdCBv?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmOpav4XUAEea_P?format=jpg&name=small)
Is Donald Trump convening the world's press at a small landscaping company on the outskirts of Philadelphia?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmOp6Q5XMAEsKjs?format=jpg&name=small)
I called the Four Seasons Hotel in Philadelphia to check and the press conference really is being held at a landscaping company.
I've arrived at Four Seasons Landscaping. It's next to an adult book store called Fantasy Island.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmO3AwCXcAAMN73?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmO3AwEXIAIdMXj?format=jpg&name=small)
We're now queuing up to go inside Four Seasons Total Landscaping to hear from the president's lawyers, as we appear close to a call from Pennsylvania which could decide the election, is a sentence I'd never thought I would write.
There is a very real possibility we have a made for Hollywoood moment when the world's press starts filtering out of this press conference because the race has been called.
This is the scene outside Four Seasons Total Landscaping.:
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325107955835035650?s=20
Press waiting here alongside a handful of Trump supporters as each news org is called inside. They boo when they hear name of news org they don't like.
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325111689478541312?s=20
News filtering through here that the race has been called. Some press are leaving.
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325112950701649921?s=20
ABC calls it too.
QuoteWe're now about to hear from
@CLewandowski_
moments after Joe Biden has been projected to become the next president.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPAcu3WMAYiQ04?format=jpg&name=small)
I have to say, this location is about as presidential as the entire Trump administration. :P
QuoteRichard Hall
@_RichardHall
"Where were you when the infamously grueling 2020 presidential race was called?"
"Four Seasons Total Landscaping."
5:35 PM · Nov 7, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
5-dimensional checkmate.
Fox News also names Biden as 46th president.
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 11:35:26 AM
QuoteWe're now about to hear from
@CLewandowski_
moments after Joe Biden has been projected to become the next president.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPAcu3WMAYiQ04?format=jpg&name=small)
I have to say, this location is about as presidential as the entire Trump administration. :P
QuoteRichard Hall
@_RichardHall
"Where were you when the infamously grueling 2020 presidential race was called?"
"Four Seasons Total Landscaping."
5:35 PM · Nov 7, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
I know he is broke but I thought he could still do these on the federal budget, wtf.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
ABC calls it too.
And Fox - which is what I'll be watching :ph34r:
Some of my neighbors walking down the street ringing bells and banging drums and yelping with joy :bowler:
I know there'll be a lot of shit to wade through before Trump is out of the White House, but boy it feels good to feel relieved about a global event this year, for a change.
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325119057201393667?s=20
QuoteRudy Giuliani is here. "I'm here to describe to you the first part of a situation that is very troubling."
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPEvliWEAEbXf_?format=jpg&name=small)
He says people behind him are poll watchers who will testify they were blocked from watching votes (this is false).
Feels like it's the first time the toast falls with the buttered side up since a long time.
Quote from: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 11:51:49 AM
I know there'll be a lot of shit to wade through before Trump is out of the White House, but boy it feels good to feel relieved about a global event this year, for a change.
It's like the relief after taking a big, stinking orange shit after a long bout of constipation ... it feels amazing, but there are still stomach problems you must deal with, and the huge turd may be difficult to flush. It may back up the toilet and overflow, flooding the place with raw sewage. 😉
Yeah just step one. But after four years of no steps, it feels good.
It's the best news since the Ibiza tapes blew up the FPÖ over here.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 11:34:34 AM
ABC calls it too.
And Fox - which is what I'll be watching :ph34r:
Chris Wallace on Trump's legal challenges "other failing candidates have in the past" made those types of challenges :lol:
Trump will never concede, but Trump adjusting to being a loser is going to be quite the spectacle.
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325121565810446337?s=20
QuoteI came to Four Seasons Total Landscaping to see if the president's lawyers would offer any evidence of the fraud they have been alleging. They haven't. So I'm leaving.
Dear Donald,
You're fired.
Respectfully,
America
From a German page:
"Good news: Joe Biden wins the presidential election.
Better news: Donald Trump loses the presidential election."
Man, I guess that's how the ending of Return of the Jedi feels.
And I'm not even a yank.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 12:16:10 PM
And I'm not even a yank.
No we are the ewoks, but less consequential.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 12:16:10 PM
Man, I guess that's how the ending of Return of the Jedi feels.
So you're saying zombie Trump comes back in 35 years to conquer the US?
Though I feel the First Order would be too moderate for Republicans. Too many women and POC.
WP:
QuoteTrump insisted Saturday that "this election is far from over" shortly after multiple outlets projected Biden to be the winner of the presidency.
"We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: They don't want the truth to be exposed," Trump said in a statement issued by his campaign in which he repeated several unfounded claims about widespread fraud having occurred in states where Biden is leading, including Pennsylvania.
"The simple fact is this election is far from over," Trump said. "Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor."
Trump said that starting Monday, his campaign would "start prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated."
"I will not rest until the American people have the honest vote count they deserve and that Democracy demands," Trump said.
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/LeanDifficultJaeger-max-1mb.gif)
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
So you're saying zombie Trump comes back in 35 years to conquer the US?
Though I feel the First Order would be too moderate for Republicans. Too many women and POC.
"Somehow Trump returned."
Sounds plausible.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 12:28:41 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
So you're saying zombie Trump comes back in 35 years to conquer the US?
Though I feel the First Order would be too moderate for Republicans. Too many women and POC.
"Somehow Trump returned."
Sounds plausible.
"The dead tweet!"
At the rate of counting today it does look like a chance of a winner no?
edit- oh, looks like its being called on the BBC. Starmer posts his congratulations.
Quote from: Tyr on November 07, 2020, 12:44:42 PM
At the rate of counting today it does look like a chance of a winner no?
No. More counting won't matter, set your alarm for mid December.
Lost in the shuffle of the yank election, but it looks like PR voted 52/48 for statehood on 51% turnout. Not that it has any chance of making it past the Republican Senate. The mandate isn't too strong either.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Lost in the shuffle of the yank election, but it looks like PR voted 52/48 for statehood on 51% turnout. Not that it has any chance of making it past the Republican Senate. The mandate isn't too strong either.
Checking up 4.5% of Florida is Puerto Rican.
Hope the democrats see it as worthwhile to try anyway, could gain them some support there.
Though 51/49...wow thats close. Wonder why some are against it.
You'd need the Democrats to control the House, Senate, and Presidency if Puerto Rico is to have a shot at statehood.
Quote from: Tyr on November 07, 2020, 12:49:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Lost in the shuffle of the yank election, but it looks like PR voted 52/48 for statehood on 51% turnout. Not that it has any chance of making it past the Republican Senate. The mandate isn't too strong either.
Checking up 4.5% of Florida is Puerto Rican.
Hope the democrats see it as worthwhile to try anyway, could gain them some support there.
Though 51/49...wow thats close. Wonder why some are against it.
Well, some want full independence (which seems a terrible idea). And there's a third option :menace:
(https://forumcontent.paradoxplaza.com/public/637973/1604770807872.png)
:ph34r:
Remember the Maine!
The farcical news conference at the landscaper company is reassuring - the President clearly has no legal strategy and no team to pursue one.
Rudy's taking things well:
https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1325128506523652096?s=20
Some inadvertantly revealing lines here: "All of the networks, wow! We have to forget about the law; judges don't count [...] Networks don't get to decide elections; courts do."
And the old dictum proves right again.
America can always be counted on to do the right thing — after exhausting all the other alternatives.
Quote from: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:51:42 PM
You'd need the Democrats to control the House, Senate, and Presidency if Puerto Rico is to have a shot at statehood.
Aye, but I wonder whether there's political gain in trying and having the Republicans stand against democracy and block it.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2020, 12:56:15 PM
The farcical news conference at the landscaper company is reassuring - the President clearly has no legal strategy and no team to pursue one.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 12:58:02 PM
Rudy's taking things well:
https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1325128506523652096?s=20
Some inadvertantly revealing lines here: "All of the networks, wow! We have to forget about the law; judges don't count [...] Networks don't get to decide elections; courts do."
"Of course Courts set aside elections ..."
Doesn't he have any non-estranged family left capable of performing an intervention?
Rudy Giuliani 2001-2020, can't think of many political falls from grace steeper than his.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 01:03:42 PM
Rudy Giuliani 2001-2020, can't think of many political falls from grace steeper than his.
Agreed - globally admired to this year which, for him particularly, has not been great.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 01:03:42 PM
Rudy Giuliani 2001-2020, can't think of many political falls from grace steeper than his.
He's pretty much a literal troll now (even looks like one).
Quote from: merithyn on November 07, 2020, 08:47:09 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 07, 2020, 08:35:35 AM
Oh and Meri, if Finland is an option: https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/05/finns_woo_techies/
I thought it was determined that I would be every Finns' worst nightmare. Loud, opinionated, expressive, overly friendly. I mean, I'm an extrovert's extrovert. I'm fairly sure that wouldn't play well there. :lol:
That's what the Finnish Swedes are for. :lol:
So, bets on how long it will take before the Donald has to declare bankruptcy.
Or maybe something more simple, like how long before MaraLogo is taken in a foreclosure proceeding. Now that it is no longer the location where people can buy access to the President of the United States, how long will that property remain viable - in a pandemic.
Quote from: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 01:05:06 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 01:03:42 PM
Rudy Giuliani 2001-2020, can't think of many political falls from grace steeper than his.
He's pretty much a literal troll now (even looks like one).
Rudy Ghouliani?
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 01:08:50 PM
So, bets on how long it will take before the Donald has to declare bankruptcy.
He'll probably just grab as much cash as he can carry and flee to North Korea or something.
Van Jones getting really emotional: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1325114711634038788 :wub:
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/773505316691247124/774638709013610526/usavaalit-083.jpg)
:lmfao:
Quote from: Solmyr on November 07, 2020, 01:25:46 PM
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/773505316691247124/774638709013610526/usavaalit-083.jpg)
I'm shamelessly ripping this off to troll on FB.
God I love Gritty :wub:
https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1324825534908555264?s=21 (https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1324825534908555264?s=21)
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 01:36:37 PM
God I love Gritty :wub:
I think the whole world now knows Gritty thanks to these elections.
https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1325127619566694400
QuoteAP got the shot. Trump on the golf course while Biden is announced as new President
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPMi5yWMAAzSSK?format=jpg&name=medium)
I am glad he is playing golf, keeps him out of trouble.
Fox News very strongly messaging the acceptance of the Republican establishment that Joe clearly won the election.
AfD member of German parliament on Twitter: "Biden is not my president!"
Newspaper: "That's correct. Your president is Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Best regards"
:lol:
Quote from: Syt on November 07, 2020, 02:04:23 PM
AfD member of German parliament on Twitter: "Biden is not my president!"
Newspaper: "That's correct. Your president is Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Best regards"
:lol:
:lol:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 01:56:12 PM
Fox News very strongly messaging the acceptance of the Republican establishment that Joe clearly won the election.
What about One America News Network? :P
CNN called Nevada for Biden.
Does NC have one of those dumbass let's take a week off before counting Alaskimo laws?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 02:33:36 PM
Does NC have one of those dumbass let's take a week off before counting Alaskimo laws?
I do believe so yes.
Now we will get to see Donald Trump try to explain why he needs to pardon himself while being completely innocent.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 07, 2020, 03:10:52 PM
Now we will get to see Donald Trump try to explain why he needs to pardon himself while being completely innocent.
That's easy. Because Teh Deep State will convict him of fake crimes.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 07, 2020, 03:10:52 PM
Now we will get to see Donald Trump try to explain why he needs to pardon himself while being completely innocent.
Easy - he and his family and his supporters are going to be subject to political persecution by the new administration (which is in the pocket of the hard left of the Democrat party). That'll include politically motivated investigations and prosecutions, and any investigation or prosecution will be purely political.
Just cancel the fucker, would probably hurt him more than punishment.
I beat you, you Limey bastard.
Mick bastard?
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 07, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
Just cancel the fucker, would probably hurt him more than punishment.
Well, he's going to get banned from Twitter as soon as he leaves the White House, so... :P
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:15:29 PM
I beat you, you Limey bastard.
Mick bastard?
Why not both? :P
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
Procrastinators?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
Voting by mail is how they traditionally vote in Arizona so actually that is a Republican thing there and always has been.
Will Kelly pull it out though? That is what I want to know.
He's running ahead of Biden.
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 03:21:05 PM
Voting by mail is how they traditionally vote in Arizona so actually that is a Republican thing there and always has been.
Asoka
According to Scraper Dude a small batch came in for NC and Trump won -20% of it. :hmm:
For Sheilbh, more singing in the streets. :P
https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1325154314860425218 (https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1325154314860425218)
Quote from: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:27:52 PM
For Sheilbh, more singing in the streets. :P
https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1325154314860425218 (https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1325154314860425218)
Absolutely love it - just watching all the people party :w00t:
It's a delight.
OMG just saw a Republican Senator on TV say "we won the argument" which was what Corbyn supporters said after they lost the election :lol: :ph34r:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:24:53 PM
According to Scraper Dude a small batch came in for NC and Trump won -20% of it. :hmm:
And Biden just won 125% of a PA batch.
Scraper Dude might have celebrated a little too hard.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 03:32:00 PM
OMG just saw a Republican Senator on TV say "we won the argument" which was what Corbyn supporters said after they lost the election :lol: :ph34r:
Has Dr. Phil commented on this?
See, this is why Democracy is a good thing. If the people in ancient Egypt could just vote Pharaoh out, they wouldn't have had to endure the 9 other plagues.
(https://i.redd.it/qmkeut6hutx51.gif)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
:huh:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
Quoted for posterity, hoping you're proven entirely wrong; but given your respect on this foreign I fear some of what you've warned again or predicted might come to pass.
Appropriate scene from A Face In The Crowd:
https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1325132603838488576
IMO that is important if they don't reverse.
Now they just need to fire Hannity, Ingraham, Carlson, and Tomi Whatsherface moving forward.
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 04:06:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
:huh:
It's been pleasant chatting with you Hose. I think we both gained something from this exchange. Let's do it again soon!
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 04:06:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
:huh:
It's been pleasant chatting with you Hose. I think we both gained something from this exchange. Let's do it again soon!
Trump has been narrowing the gap,down to 20,000. but from reports I've read there are about 100k votes outstanding, and Trump would need to get better than 60% to take lead and he's been getting 52-59% of these ballots which have been mainly ones mailed last weekend or turned in on day of.
Or what I'm trying to say is Dorsey best apologize to the future ex mrs. AR
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPcLh9VoAIcqdJ?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 04:06:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
Arizona is looking to go Trump.
The only state in the union where Dems voted in person and Reps voted by mail??
Or are these late counts something other than mail ins?
:huh:
You know how Yi is with nicknames that nobody else understands.
Clearly Trump is his nickname for Biden.
Love seeing the UK news channels using gimmicks just like they do for UK elections :lol:
Sky News announcing Biden's victory:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1325114219382116354?s=20
The latest count in Arizona was giving more votes to Trump than Biden, so Yi presumed the more it goes, the more Trump gets closer to a victory.
I'm not passing judgement because I've no idea where the votes to count come from.
Anyway. Speakig of deplorable:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/incendiary-texts-traced-to-outfit-run-by-top-trump-aide/ar-BB1aM8p9?li=AAggNb9
QuoteThe messages directed Trump fans to converge at a downtown intersection where hundreds of protesters from the opposing candidates' camps faced off Thursday afternoon. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state where former Vice-President Joe Biden's jumped ahead Friday and in a televised address later predicted a victory that would give him the presidency.
"This kind of message is playing with fire, and we are very lucky that it does not seem to have driven more conflict," said John Scott-Railton, senior researcher at the University of Toronto's online watchdog Citizen Lab. Scott-Railton helped track down the source.
The texts were sent using phone numbers leased to the text-messaging platform Opn Sesame, said two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition they not be further identified. The company's CEO is Gary Coby, the Trump campaign's digital director. It provides text-messaging services to GOP clients including the Republican National Committee.
"ALERT: Radical Liberals & Dems are trying to steal this election from Trump! We need YOU!" the text said, directing recipients to "show your support" on a street corner near the Philadelphia Convention Center where votes were being counted and tensions were running high.
A top Trump campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the message did not come from the campaign. Because Opn Sesame is used by multiple customers, none of whom the company would identify, it could not be determined exactly who sent the message. Coby declined to comment.
Opn Sesame's connection with the messages was first reported by The Washington Post.
Among those who received the rallying text was Chris Bray, who lives in rural Bucks County, about 25 miles outside Philadelphia.
A registered Independent who said he voted for Biden, Bray said he was very surprised to see the message pop up on his phone since he never signed up for anything related to the Trump campaign.
"I actually texted a number of other friends to say 'hey, have you guys been getting robo-texts like this?'" Bray said Friday. "It was a call to action. It borders on that the rhetoric that we've been hearing for months now and that's really dangerous if you get the right people together with a slight screw loose, we just don't know what can happen."
Later Thursday night, two men were arrested near the convention centre for carrying loaded handguns without a permit, Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw said. District Attorney Larry Krasner said there were no indications they were part of an extremist group. Their vehicle bore a window sticker for the right-wing conspiracy theory QAnon and an AR-style rifle and ammunition inside, Outlaw said.
The text messages were sent using 13 different phone numbers identified by RoboKiller, a mobile phone app that lets users block text and voice spam, said company vice-president Giulia Porter. RoboKiller traced the numbers to Twilio, a gateway for bulk-messaging services.
After being notified, Twilio shut down the numbers, saying in a statement that the texts "were sent without consumer opt-out language, which is in direct contravention of our policies." A company spokesman declined further comment.
About 80 million political text messages have been sent daily since September in the U.S. — many of those from the Trump camp echoing his baseless claims that Democrats were trying to steal the election, said RoboKiller's Porter. They are highly targeted.
Political text-messaging campaigns can exploit the same flaws in telecommunications infrastructure that let robocallers hide their origin. They can spoof the numbers they call from and auto-blast thousands of texts with a single mouse click.
Opn Sesame has earned millions as a hub of text-messaging efforts for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee this election cycle, said a digital Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of political retribution.
Facebook and Twitter cracked down on disinformation in the runup to the election, making text messaging and robocalls more attractive to those seeking to spread false and sometimes dangerous messages directly to voters via their phones.
"The extent to which these companies are relying upon loopholes in the law and a lack of regulation in this space has really staggered me," said Sam Woolley, a misinformation and computational propaganda researcher at the University of Texas at Austin.
"They really want to circumvent the need to rely social media firms which is why they are using these private mechanisms," he added. "They are using tech that we don't think of as particularly new, texting, calling, but using them in ways that are very Machiavellian."
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 04:49:53 PM
Love seeing the UK news channels using gimmicks just like they do for UK elections :lol:
Sky News announcing Biden's victory:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1325114219382116354?s=20
Wait is this how they announce election results in the UK? :lmfao:
After his time playing golf the President is back and rage-tweeting (a phrase we probably won't need for the next four years).
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 05:02:32 PM
Wait is this how they announce election results in the UK? :lmfao:
Something like that - it's normally obvious beforehand but once they cross the amount needed for a majority: cue cheesy graphics going down Downing Street normally to a CGI Boris Johnson/or whoever :lol:
Edit: The main difference is they'd normally do it all in the studio but they have to come off the screen because the host is in the US while the studio's still in London.
More street partying: https://twitter.com/AledaGagarin/status/1325166661834596352 (https://twitter.com/AledaGagarin/status/1325166661834596352)
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 05:05:03 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 05:02:32 PM
Wait is this how they announce election results in the UK? :lmfao:
Something like that - it's normally obvious beforehand but once they cross the amount needed for a majority: cue cheesy graphics going down Downing Street normally to a CGI Boris Johnson/or whoever :lol:
The Catalan TV's coverage was inside a virtual White House set :lol:
(https://statics.ccma.cat/multimedia/jpg/5/8/1603919001885.jpg)
:o That's bad even by British gimmick standards.
As I say we do this nonsense for our own elections :blush:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWhiDQpzULc
Quote from: mongers on November 07, 2020, 04:16:47 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
Quoted for posterity, hoping you're proven entirely wrong; but given your respect on this foreign I fear some of what you've warned again or predicted might come to pass.
I'm feeling a little better now that I saw that Trump's legal effort consists of Rudy and a couple ambulance chasers ranting in the backroom of a Beefsteak Charlie's
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 05:10:57 PM
:o That's bad even by British gimmick standards.
As I say we do this nonsense for our own elections :blush:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWhiDQpzULc
Well, you guys just go on.... being you guys. :lol:
Sometimes boring is better.
Quote from: celedhring on November 07, 2020, 05:07:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 05:05:03 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 05:02:32 PM
Wait is this how they announce election results in the UK? :lmfao:
Something like that - it's normally obvious beforehand but once they cross the amount needed for a majority: cue cheesy graphics going down Downing Street normally to a CGI Boris Johnson/or whoever :lol:
The Catalan TV's coverage was inside a virtual White House set :lol:
[img]https://sts.ccma.cat/multimedia/jpg/5/8/1603919001885.jpg[/]
It's like something from the imagination of a 7 year old Spanish kid when he thinks of the white house. I mean. It's a big giant house that's all white yeah?
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
So this is it? What about the legal challenges, the 6-3 Supreme Court decisions that will favour Trump, the tricks that Trump will play to steal the election at state level? Where are all these?
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
I told you. Trump is a lazy incompetent who talks a big game but plays a small one. No thought or planning has gone into theze legal challenges.
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
I only live North of your country and I feel like a great weight has been lifted. I can't imagine what it must be like for you.
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Savior of the nation and grandfather of his people.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
:rolleyes: :huh: :huh: :rolleyes:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
Or for fuck sakes Yi, stop watching whatever nonsense it is that makes you think he is not the President Elect. Hell even Fox News is calling him that.
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:25:31 PM
Presumptive president elect.
:rolleyes: :huh: :huh: :rolleyes:
Great chat, best one ever. Let's do this regularly! :)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:29:45 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:25:31 PM
Presumptive president elect.
:rolleyes: :huh: :huh: :rolleyes:
Great chat, best one ever. Let's do this regularly! :)
well when you post asinine comments, I treat them with all the input they deserve.
Re Trump photographed playing golf at lunchtime today, I really hope the legend becomes that a secret service agent handed Trump a secure phone and he learnt about his downfall whilst standing in a bunker.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:26:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
Or for fuck sakes Yi, stop watching whatever nonsense it is that makes you think he is not the President Elect. Hell even Fox News is calling him that.
:lol: The election of the president hasn't even been held yet. Hell, we haven't even seen the final results of the election of the electors who will elect the president.
I know that this is hard for foreigners to understand, but the US president is selected by the Electoral College, not the general populace. A candidate becomes the president-elect in fact only when he has actually been elected. Faux Snooze does not elect the president.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:24:18 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
I only live North of your country and I feel like a great weight has been lifted. I can't imagine what it must be like for you.
If my wife weren't pregnant we'd probably be outside the White House right now. As it is, I'm sipping on a nice whiskey and watching people being very happy on my television :D :cheers:
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:36:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:29:45 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:25:31 PM
Presumptive president elect.
:rolleyes: :huh: :huh: :rolleyes:
Great chat, best one ever. Let's do this regularly! :)
well when you post asinine comments, I treat them with all the input they deserve.
American civics FAIL :(
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:36:56 PM
well when you post asinine comments, I treat them with all the input they deserve.
:rolleyes: :wacko: :ike:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2020, 06:21:28 PM
So this is it? What about the legal challenges, the 6-3 Supreme Court decisions that will favour Trump, the tricks that Trump will play to steal the election at state level? Where are all these?
I mean we saw some of those tricks in the fact that mail-in ballots were counted after in certain states with Republican legislatures not letting those votes be ccounted in advance as they are in states were mail-in ballots are more common and not a new covid thing. The fact we have had these days of this being a "close" race is because of that deliberate choice. If those votes were all counted at once the election would have been called on Tuesday night with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - we'd have spent the last few days talking about whether Biden could add to his win with the far tighter sunbelt states.
In terms of the rest, Trump can't do that alone. As has always been the case - he needs the GOP more than they need him and, frankly, they don't need him any more. If they'd lost the Senate and this hung on one state then I think we'd be seeing very different messages establishment Republicans and, probably, a higher wattage legal challenge etc.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Presumptive president elect.
Is that how it's typically done? The media didn't refer to Obama as President-elect until mid-December and referred to "presumptive President-elect" Trump when he was firing his transition team etc? Just from a quick search I can see things the day after election night referring to President-elect Obama.
Because if that's not the norm then it seems like it's rewarding Trump for throwing a tantrum by treating Biden differently than you'd treat any other candidate in any other year.
I actually think the media has a quasi-constitutional role (through conventions not law), a bit like a concession. So you've really got two competing conventions which aren't necessary for the operation of the constitution but almost form part of it. I think the convention that the winner gets referred to as President-elect once it's clear they've won is more important because it reinforces the validity of the system, rather than depending on the concession of the loser.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 06:55:31 PM
Is that how it's typically done? The media didn't refer to Obama as President-elect until mid-December and referred to "presumptive President-elect" Trump when he was firing his transition team etc? Just from a quick search I can see things the day after election night referring to President-elect Obama.
Because if that's not the norm then it seems like it's rewarding Trump for throwing a tantrum by treating Biden differently than you'd treat any other candidate in any other year.
I actually think the media has a quasi-constitutional role (through conventions not law), a bit like a concession. So you've really got two competing conventions which aren't necessary for the operation of the constitution but almost form part of it. I think the convention that the winner gets referred to as President-elect once it's clear they've won is more important because it reinforces the validity of the system, rather than depending on the concession of the loser.
My impression, and I'm willing to be proven wrong, is that we wait until votes are counted before annointing. I certainly can't recall with any certainty an election in my memory for which the media started to refer to a candidate as president elect while votes were still being counted, enough votes to determine the outcome.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:02:21 PM
My impression, and I'm willing to be proven wrong, is that we wait until votes are counted before annointing. I certainly can't recall with any certainty an election in my memory for which the media started to refer to a candidate as president elect while votes were still being counted, enough votes to determine the outcome.
But aren't votes counted for about a week afterwards normally in some states. I certainly remember at the last election that while you had President-elect Trump we were still getting regular updates on Clintons growing popular vote lead. And it definitely happened in 2008 - see about 4.30 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYT_JjVbcMU
The votes still being counted can't change the outcome of electoral college into Trumps favor though Yi.
And I will publicly apologize if you can show me where in the last 8 elections we've been calling them "presumptive"president elect.
And grumbler. How about that Michigan football team??
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:07:57 PM
But aren't votes counted for about a week afterwards normally in some states. I certainly remember at the last election that while you had President-elect Trump we were still getting regular updates on Clintons growing popular vote lead. And it definitely happened in 2008 - see about 4.30 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYT_JjVbcMU
I'm not sure what point you wanted to make with that clip. GW students celebrating shows what exactly?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:19:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:07:57 PM
But aren't votes counted for about a week afterwards normally in some states. I certainly remember at the last election that while you had President-elect Trump we were still getting regular updates on Clintons growing popular vote lead. And it definitely happened in 2008 - see about 4.30 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYT_JjVbcMU
I'm not sure what point you wanted to make with that clip. GW students celebrating shows what exactly?
The reporter: "right after the call had been made and that Senator Obama was now President-elect Obama".
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 07, 2020, 05:29:32 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 07, 2020, 04:16:47 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 06, 2020, 02:08:17 PM
This is a very dangerous moment. The architecture of the American electoral process is far from seamless. Like much else it relies on people following custom and unwritten rules to work smoothly. Trump has shown again and again he is completely unconstrained by such norms and views them as vulnerable loopholes to be vigorously exploited. Trump doesn't need to win legal actions in court on the merits, he just need to disrupt or drag out the process of formally commissioning Electors long enough to prevent a sufficient number of states from certifying slates of Electors by the December 14 deadline for the Electors to meet and cast their votes. If he can do that, no candidate will secure 270 and the election goes to the House to vote by delegation, where the GOP controls a majority of delegations. This no longer hypothetical speculation, it is Trump's strategy and it appears he has already succeeded in getting important elected GOP officials to cooperate with at least the opening moves.
Quoted for posterity, hoping you're proven entirely wrong; but given your respect on this foreign I fear some of what you've warned again or predicted might come to pass.
I'm feeling a little better now that I saw that Trump's legal effort consists of Rudy and a couple ambulance chasers ranting in the backroom of a Beefsteak Charlie's
I think if 'we' can be through the next 48 hours without a major terrorist attack by Trump loyalists, say drive-by mass shootings of celebrating Biden supporters, then I'll be pleasantly surprised and maybe the hot-heads will cool off?
As it is I think FBI et al will have to devote considerable resources to combating domestic terrorism from the right, there's almost certainly going to be McVeigh-like characters planning outrages in the coming years.
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 07:12:42 PM
The votes still being counted can't change the outcome of electoral college into Trumps favor though Yi.
And I will publicly apologize if you can show me where in the last 8 elections we've been calling them "presumptive"president elect.
And grumbler. How about that Michigan football team??
I'm seeing:
AZ Biden up 21,188 with 130,467 to count
GA Biden up 7,547 with unknown to count
NV Biden up 25,699 with 113,398 to count
NC Trump up
PA Biden up 37,298 with 78,792
Your apology is up to your conscience. As is my opinion whether you're being a douche.
edit: I mean my opinion of you is up to my conscience, not yours. :nerd:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:21:50 PM
The reporter: "right after the call had been made and that Senator Obama was now President-elect Obama".
Sure. And I'm pretty sure there were not enough uncounted votes left at that point to swing the election.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:27:14 PM
Sure. And I'm pretty sure there were not enough uncounted votes left at that point to swing the election.
Of course there were - there were articles about the networks possibly calling the election before the polls had even closed in some states:
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/us/politics/04network.html
Here's a list of recent elections and when AP calls it:
2012: 11:38 pm, Tuesday
2008: 11 pm, Tuesday
2004: 11:19 am, Wednesday
2000: No call
1996: 9 pm, Tuesday
I don't think they then waited until it is mathematically impossible in all states to refer to the winner as President-elect. You're right that legally the call means nothing, but it is customary to start referring to the President-elect once they call a winner and customs/conventions matter. I don't think they should put that on hold because the current President is making spurious and baseless allegations of fraud. I think it's important to re-inforce the norms at this point.
Edit: I mean at the minute I think it's mathematically possible for Trump to flip California - do we wait until it's impossible for that to happen?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:25:46 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 07:12:42 PM
The votes still being counted can't change the outcome of electoral college into Trumps favor though Yi.
And I will publicly apologize if you can show me where in the last 8 elections we've been calling them "presumptive"president elect.
And grumbler. How about that Michigan football team??
I'm seeing:
AZ Biden up 21,188 with 130,467 to count
GA Biden up 7,547 with unknown to count
NV Biden up 25,699 with 113,398 to count
NC Trump up
PA Biden up 37,298 with 78,792
Your apology is up to your conscience. As is my opinion whether you're being a douche.
edit: I mean my opinion of you is up to my conscience, not yours. :nerd:
where are you getting your numbers from? I've been going off nbc and they aren't matching up to those and tried searching AP, CBS and CNN and didn't see those amounts either.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:34:22 PM
Of course there were - there were articles about the networks possibly calling the election before the polls had even closed in some states:
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/us/politics/04network.html
Here's a list of recent elections and when AP calls it:
2012: 11:38 pm, Tuesday
2008: 11 pm, Tuesday
2004: 11:19 am, Wednesday
2000: No call
1996: 9 pm, Tuesday
I don't think they then waited until it is mathematically impossible in all states to refer to the winner as President-elect. You're right that legally the call means nothing, but it is customary to start referring to the President-elect once they call a winner and customs/conventions matter. I don't think they should put that on hold because the current President is making spurious and baseless allegations of fraud. I think it's important to re-inforce the norms at this point.
Edit: I mean at the minute I think it's mathematically possible for Trump to flip California - do we wait until it's impossible for that to happen?
You're conflating two different things: networks calling elections and calling a candidate president elect.
Incidentally, a Fox story:
QuoteWhile the president insists on Twitter that ballots have not been properly considered and argues that President-elect Joe Biden's victory is premature, Fox News has learned that under some conditions Trump would consider an appropriate transfer of power.
:lol: :blink:
Never a loser.
It's the scraper, Kat.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 07:35:37 PM
where are you getting your numbers from? I've been going off nbc and they aren't matching up to those and tried searching AP, CBS and CNN and didn't see those amounts either.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Biscuit's scraper.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:38:46 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 07:35:37 PM
where are you getting your numbers from? I've been going off nbc and they aren't matching up to those and tried searching AP, CBS and CNN and didn't see those amounts either.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Biscuit's scraper.
Thanks, and that site shows Trump isn't meeting the % needed to take back the lead in Nevada, Arizona or Pennsylvania...
And I already know you love me Mutton so :blurgh:
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 07:42:32 PM
Thanks, and that site shows Trump isn't meeting the % needed to take back the lead in Nevada, Arizona or Pennsylvania...
"The votes still being counted can't change the outcome of electoral college into Trumps favor though Yi. "
One of these things, is not like the other one,
Both of these things is not are not the same,
One of these things is not like the other one
And the Big Mexican is arguing in the alternative and better cut his losses.Of course I love you you big galoot. And you love me too which is why you have to take me seriously when I say you're being a douche.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 07:37:14 PM
You're conflating two different things: networks calling elections and calling a candidate president elect.
I'm not confusing them. If we look at that clip from 2008 and I assume it's chronological that reporter's talking about "now President-elect Obama" before Obama's victory speech. Assuming that network called the election at 11pm, Obama's speech was (from what I can tell) at 12.15.
So either, somehow, it became mathematically impossible for McCain to win at some point in that hour (ie there were no longer enough uncounted votes to swing the election) or the reporter used "President-elect" after the call was made rather than waiting for that. I think it's the latter and that's been the norm in every previous election because normally once it gets called candidates concede (even though McCain could still wait for California and Hawaii to finish counting). I think it's better that the networks treat this like any other election so "President-elect" is appropriate because it is their assessment of objective reality, rather than make it conditional on a candidate conceding or as if it is unsure for several days while states finish their count (even if their results won't change).
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:37:24 PM
Incidentally, a Fox story:
QuoteWhile the president insists on Twitter that ballots have not been properly considered and argues that President-elect Joe Biden's victory is premature, Fox News has learned that under some conditions Trump would consider an appropriate transfer of power.
:lol: :blink:
Never a loser.
Did he specify to whom he would consider transferring power?
Congratulations America on finally ending this national nightmare.
Though one wonders what took you so long to decide that you don't want someone who is obviously incompetent, corrupt, morally reprehensible, and a habitual liar to be president :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 07:50:13 PM
I'm not confusing them. If we look at that clip from 2008 and I assume it's chronological that reporter's talking about "now President-elect Obama" before Obama's victory speech. Assuming that network called the election at 11pm, Obama's speech was (from what I can tell) at 12.15.
So either, somehow, it became mathematically impossible for McCain to win at some point in that hour (ie there were no longer enough uncounted votes to swing the election) or the reporter used "President-elect" after the call was made rather than waiting for that. I think it's the latter and that's been the norm in every previous election because normally once it gets called candidates concede (even though McCain could still wait for California and Hawaii to finish counting). I think it's better that the networks treat this like any other election so "President-elect" is appropriate because it is their assessment of objective reality, rather than make it conditional on a candidate conceding or as if it is unsure for several days while states finish their count (even if their results won't change).
Now all we need is info on whether uncounted ballots in whatever election had the potential to flip the called result and I would be shown to be wrong.
Or maybe not wrong, but at the very least out of sync with normal practice.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:07:29 PM
Now all we need is info on whether uncounted ballots in whatever election had the potential to flip the called result and I would be shown to be wrong.
Or maybe not wrong, but at the very least out of sync with normal practice.
Of course there were. I mean if you normally have so many votes counted between 11-12 election night that it's mathematically impossible for one or other candidate to be called it makes me wonder why the times elections are called are so variable. Or to put it another way can you think of any other election where it's been noted on the news when it's impossible for another x candidate to win?
The abnormality isn't that the networks are referring to a "President-elect" while it is still theoretically possible for the the result to be flipped, it's that one of the candidates isn't conceding even after its been called. I think that should be given short shrift.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 08:16:20 PM
Of course there were. I mean if you normally have so many votes counted between 11-12 election night that it's mathematically impossible for one or other candidate to be called it makes me wonder why the times elections are called are so variable. Or to put it another way can you think of any other election where it's been noted on the news when it's impossible for another x candidate to win?
The abnormality isn't that the networks are referring to a "President-elect" while it is still theoretically possible for the the result to be flipped, it's that one of the candidates isn't conceding even after its been called. I think that should be given short shrift.
I'm well aware there have been times when networks have called states with incomplete results. I'm also aware of times calls have been wrong.
I'm much less aware of a time when the entire election was called with this many uncounted ballots left.
I don't understand what your second and third sentence mean. Please rephrase them if you want me to respond.
In things that matter, Biden is down to 18713 in AZ.
Guys, Yi is just sour the other tribe won the contest, give him a break.
Quote from: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 08:36:42 PM
Guys, Yi is just sour the other tribe won the contest, give him a break.
Fuck you too.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:25:34 PM
I'm much less aware of a time when the entire election was called with this many uncounted ballots left.
In 2008 they called it for Barack Obama the second after the polls on the West Coast closed. I am pretty sure they had almost all the ballots in California, Washington, and Oregon to count it was just a foregone conclusion what that count would be.
This year, because of the uncertainty created by all the mail ballots, they have been much much more conservative than usual.
And they still might have fucked it up with Arizona :lol:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:25:34 PM
I'm well aware there have been times when networks have called states with incomplete results. I'm also aware of times calls have been wrong.
2000. When else has it happened?
QuoteI'm much less aware of a time when the entire election was called with this many uncounted ballots left.
Any election called on election night is based on incomplete results in a whole series of states - including massive ones like California that could, mathematically, flip.
QuoteI don't understand what your second and third sentence mean. Please rephrase them if you want me to respond.
Your issue is the networks calling him "President-elect". I think that's normal once they've called an election even if votes are still being counted. I swear that just like now they typically refer to the victory speech as being by the "President-elect". So I looked for an example, and there's the one in 2008 when the reporter calls Obama President-elect based on the call, based on those incomplete results. So I think I'm right that it is normal.
I think why it seems abnormal isn't the use of President-elect, but that it's happening at a time when one of the candidates is disputing the result of the elections and saying they're being cheated out of victory.
My point is the networks should follow the custom of referring to a candidate as "President-elect" based on their assessment of objective reality (taking into account lots of uncounted votes) and should not depend on whether any of the candidates are disputing the results, unless the networks' assessment of reality is that there has been widespread fraud. I think it's one of those small conventions that matter - just like Biden receiving extra Secret Service protection on Wednesday (or should that have waited until it's mathematically impossible?), apparently, getting extra briefings and foreign leaders congratulating "President-elect Biden".
In fact I think it's dangerous to allow the candidates to shape that by refusing to accept results - I'd note that one of the only foreign leaders who haven't offered their congratulations is AMLO who of course tried to shape reality when he disputed those Mexican election results in 2006. He is waiting for all legal challenges to be complete.
QuoteIn things that matter, Biden is down to 18713 in AZ.
He only needs Pennsylvania. The vast majority of those votes are, from what we understand, in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are nice-to-haves given Pennsylvania.
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:40:50 PM
In 2008 they called it for Barack Obama the second after the polls on the West Coast closed. I am pretty sure they had almost all the ballots in California, Washington, and Oregon to count it was just a foregone conclusion what that count would be.
Then I concede the point.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:54:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:40:50 PM
In 2008 they called it for Barack Obama the second after the polls on the West Coast closed. I am pretty sure they had almost all the ballots in California, Washington, and Oregon to count it was just a foregone conclusion what that count would be.
Then I concede the point.
In normal elections they can do that because they know where the votes are coming from. This year they do not which is why it took forever. But it always takes forever to count all the votes.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
I think with Nevada and Pensylvania being a certainty, he is president elect, even if Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona go to Trump (highly unlikely for Arizona), he has won the race.
The final count will be determined, the 2 senators in Georgia will be decided in January, but as much as presidency goes, it is a done deal.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:24:18 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
I only live North of your country and I feel like a great weight has been lifted. I can't imagine what it must be like for you.
Yeah, me too, I'm no longer a bitter and depressed old man. :showoff:
Quote from: viper37 on November 07, 2020, 09:01:55 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:24:18 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
I only live North of your country and I feel like a great weight has been lifted. I can't imagine what it must be like for you.
Yeah, me too, I'm no longer a bitter and depressed old man. :showoff:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmQ8YPJVgAAiw11?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 06:39:46 PM
:lol: The election of the president hasn't even been held yet. Hell, we haven't even seen the final results of the election of the electors who will elect the president.
I know that this is hard for foreigners to understand, but the US president is selected by the Electoral College, not the general populace. A candidate becomes the president-elect in fact only when he has actually been elected. Faux Snooze does not elect the president.
we do get that you have a weird system where a modern country needs nearly 3 months to transition power :P
However, faithless electors are nearly non existent and by convention, even if inaccurate, everyone always refers to the candidate with the most electors to be "president elect". I think they even call him President right after the electoral college, even if, again, inaccurate.
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2020, 08:07:18 PM
Congratulations America on finally ending this national nightmare.
Though one wonders what took you so long to decide that you don't want someone who is obviously incompetent, corrupt, morally reprehensible, and a habitual liar to be president :P
What one wonders is why so many Americans did NOT want such a despicable failure to leave office. the margin of victory for Biden was astonishingly small. Trump has done fuck all while demonstrating the maturity of a two-year-old but more Americans voted for him than for any Presidential candidate in history, bar Biden. :huh:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 09:03:04 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 07, 2020, 09:01:55 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:24:18 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 06:09:03 PM
The mood now versus the mood Tuesday night is, uh, night and day.
I only live North of your country and I feel like a great weight has been lifted. I can't imagine what it must be like for you.
Yeah, me too, I'm no longer a bitter and depressed old man. :showoff:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmQ8YPJVgAAiw11?format=jpg&name=small)
:lol:
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 09:23:57 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2020, 08:07:18 PM
Congratulations America on finally ending this national nightmare.
Though one wonders what took you so long to decide that you don't want someone who is obviously incompetent, corrupt, morally reprehensible, and a habitual liar to be president :P
What one wonders is why so many Americans did NOT want such a despicable failure to leave office. the margin of victory for Biden was astonishingly small. Trump has done fuck all while demonstrating the maturity of a two-year-old but more Americans voted for him than for any Presidential candidate in history, bar Biden. :huh:
makes you wonder if anti-americans know something we don't :P
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 06:39:46 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 06:26:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:23:52 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2020, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 06:21:59 PM
Is Beefsteak Charlie's still around??
NPR has started referring to "president elect Biden." Not crazy about that.
uh. What should they call him then??
Presumptive president elect.
Or for fuck sakes Yi, stop watching whatever nonsense it is that makes you think he is not the President Elect. Hell even Fox News is calling him that.
:lol: The election of the president hasn't even been held yet. Hell, we haven't even seen the final results of the election of the electors who will elect the president.
I know that this is hard for foreigners to understand, but the US president is selected by the Electoral College, not the general populace. A candidate becomes the president-elect in fact only when he has actually been elected. Faux Snooze does not elect the president.
Cling to your outdated ways if you must. :P
But more seriously, suggesting that the Electoral College can choose differently is not the wisest thing at this particular time.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:54:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:40:50 PM
In 2008 they called it for Barack Obama the second after the polls on the West Coast closed. I am pretty sure they had almost all the ballots in California, Washington, and Oregon to count it was just a foregone conclusion what that count would be.
Then I concede the point.
You conceded but California takes weeks to count the votes every elections.
Votes can arrive until November 20th there.
Just as an FYI (and not to make any judgement about news organizations using the term loosely) the term "President-elect" only became a concept under the US constitution when the 20th Amendment was passed in 1933. The House committee that originated the amendment (which was designed to move the inauguration date to January from March) made it clear that the president-elect became so from the casting of the electoral college ballots, not from Congress's recognition of them.
The popular use of the term has obviously changed from the legal definition of the term, but it scarcely justifies the indignation of Yi noting that the popular usage is not correct.
I am sure that the concession of the defeated candidate is part of this, as well.
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 07, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
You conceded but California takes weeks to count the votes every elections.
Votes can arrive until November 20th there.
That's not particularly relevant unless enough ballots arrive to flip the result. My impression is absentee ballots in normal elections are rounding error.
I'm going to amend my last: The Presidential Transition Act of 1963 actually changes the meaning of the term "President-elect" by saying that
Quote"The terms "President-elect" and "Vice-President-elect" as used in this Act shall mean such persons as are the apparent successful candidates for the office of the President and Vice President, respectively, as ascertained by the Administrator following the general elections held to determine the electors of the President and Vice-President in accordance with title 3, United States code, sections 1 and 2.
The GSA Administrator has not yet made such a determination (AFAICT), but it is clear that he can do so before the Electors meet.
Quote from: Monoriu on November 07, 2020, 08:07:18 PM
Congratulations America on finally ending this national nightmare.
Though one wonders what took you so long to decide that you don't want someone who is obviously incompetent, corrupt, morally reprehensible, and a habitual liar to be president :P
Better Trump than Xi or Putin or any successful autocrat.
Bad comparison, since unlike those two, Trump was chosen in free elections and still managed to garner significant support the second time around, despite his gross incompetence and lack of character.
I was comparing him to the leader of the person making the comment. :mellow:
People like McConnell or Graham still talking about voting fraud allegations will damage the legitimacy of the American republic for decades.
Lindsay Graham released an affidavit tonight from an Erie country postal worker alleging ballots arriving at the post office Nov 4 were re-postmarked Nov 3. Even if true it would not significantly impact the result as these ballots are already being challenged as part of the general challenge to postmarked ballots arriving at the clerk's office after Election Day (and those aren't anywhere close to enough to reverse the result).
The affidavit is also somewhat less than compelling. It basically says he overheard a conversation between 2 other people. He did not witness any postmark manipulation himself. He also mentions contacting Project Veritas (infamous for doctoring videos as part of fake exposes), and ends with a reference to "old allegations against me that have since been resolved"
If this is their best shot Biden can sleep easy tonight.
It won't move the needle significantly, but it keeps feeding the GOP myth of widespread voter fraud and election irregularities which they will use as excuses to again try and make it harder for people how they don't want to vote to cast a ballot.
My sister is still posting "stories" and "proof" how the election was stolen and that justice will still prevail. I expect there's a few million Americans who hold similar beliefs.
Quotehttp://Kaitlan Collins
@kaitlancollins
·
5h
Some news — Jared Kushner has approached President Trump about conceding the election, per two sources.
Long article from Politico about the internal fuckuppedness of the Trump campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/this-f-ing-virus-inside-donald-trumps-2020-undoing-434716
This election was rough on me. I was so nervous that I had a psychotic episode. After pulling a bunch of nails out of the wall and getting some sleep I think I'm okay.
Quote from: Syt on November 08, 2020, 02:41:09 AM
It won't move the needle significantly, but it keeps feeding the GOP myth of widespread voter fraud and election irregularities which they will use as excuses to again try and make it harder for people how they don't want to vote to cast a ballot.
My sister is still posting "stories" and "proof" how the election was stolen and that justice will still prevail. I expect there's a few million Americans who hold similar beliefs.
I guess she doesn't know what election fraud is?
The Democrats won in SPITE of widespread election fraud.
So apparently that Four Seasons mixup was actually an attempt to save face for Donald, because the hotel did not want him. https://twitter.com/thatbilloakley/status/1325169127355396101?s=19
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 07:24:25 AM
So apparently that Four Seasons mixup was actually an attempt to save face for Donald, because the hotel did not want him. https://twitter.com/thatbilloakley/status/1325169127355396101?s=19
Doesn't add up, first time he tweeted about the presser he already referred to the landscaping company, not the hotel.
Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
21h
Big press conference today in Philadelphia at Four Seasons Total Landscaping — 11:30am!
Quote from: celedhring on November 08, 2020, 07:33:53 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 07:24:25 AM
So apparently that Four Seasons mixup was actually an attempt to save face for Donald, because the hotel did not want him. https://twitter.com/thatbilloakley/status/1325169127355396101?s=19
Doesn't add up, first time he tweeted about the presser he already referred to the landscaping company, not the hotel.
Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
21h
Big press conference today in Philadelphia at Four Seasons Total Landscaping — 11:30am!
According to https://projects.propublica.org/politwoops/user/realDonaldTrump he deleted a few tweets that day. ;)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 08, 2020, 02:07:33 AM
The affidavit is also somewhat less than compelling. It basically says he overheard a conversation between 2 other people. He did not witness any postmark manipulation himself.
I'm no lawyer, but I'm pretty sure that falls under "hearsay". No court would even hear that, if that's the only evidence
Quote from: Josephus on November 08, 2020, 07:44:18 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 08, 2020, 02:07:33 AM
The affidavit is also somewhat less than compelling. It basically says he overheard a conversation between 2 other people. He did not witness any postmark manipulation himself.
I'm no lawyer, but I'm pretty sure that falls under "hearsay". No court would even hear that, if that's the only evidence
I don't know... I've seen some weird arguments lately in US courts, it wouldn't surprised me if they could find a judge somewhere that would find a weird way to accept this. ;)
Quote from: Josephus on November 08, 2020, 07:44:18 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 08, 2020, 02:07:33 AM
The affidavit is also somewhat less than compelling. It basically says he overheard a conversation between 2 other people. He did not witness any postmark manipulation himself.
I'm no lawyer, but I'm pretty sure that falls under "hearsay". No court would even hear that, if that's the only evidence
Yes it's hearsay.
Seen today in BCN:
(https://www.ara.cat/2020/11/08/internacional/Joe-Biden-ja-grafiti-Barcelona_2559954143_75496193_900x600.jpg)
It's a riff on Rocky V's poster, so I hope the presidency is a bit better than the movie!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmUXFBKW8AENfr4?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 05:20:51 AM
Long article from Politico about the internal fuckuppedness of the Trump campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/this-f-ing-virus-inside-donald-trumps-2020-undoing-434716
Oooh, the cringe of some parts of Trump's campaign stories. :lol:
QuoteInfighting, lap dance jokes and hot tub parties
As they struggled to address the cash woes, Trump's advisers had another headache: Guilfoyle, the campaign's fundraising chair.
Republican Party and campaign officials were convinced that Guilfoyle's team, which was beset by infighting and departures, was vastly underperforming. There was anger over their abrupt cancelation of a late September virtual fundraiser with the president that was supposed to rake in as much as $15 million just ahead of the third quarter deadline.
Senior campaign officials, meanwhile, had been getting reports that Guilfoyle had been berating her staff. Appearing together at fundraisers, Guilfoyle and her boyfriend, Donald Trump Jr., would banter in sexually suggestive ways that made some donors uncomfortable.
During a December donor event at Trump Hotel in Washington, Guilfoyle offered to give a lap dance to whoever raised the most money, according to two people who were present and another person who was familiar with the episode.
And at an event in Jackson Hole, Wyo. earlier this year, Guilfoyle and the younger Trump joked about how she raised money while in hot tubs. Another attendee presented a slightly different version, saying that whoever in the audience raised the most money would be offered a hot tub party with Guilfoyle.
And at a fall 2018 fundraiser headlined by country star Toby Keith, Guilfoyle cracked that her boyfriend liked it when she dressed up as a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader, according to an attendee.
Who would have thought that nepotism is not a good tool for picking the right person for a job?
There were very weird sexual harassment allegations about Guilfoyle, they got overshadowed by some other stories.
(https://scontent-vie1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/124025647_1310812739311470_9093944268553714324_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=2&_nc_sid=9267fe&_nc_ohc=YDYolE_wEBcAX8dd_1O&_nc_ht=scontent-vie1-1.xx&oh=05bdd4665f53f540b46c5728867bce95&oe=5FCC3FC1)
QuoteDan Crenshaw
I've signed onto this letter to AG Barr asking to investigate claims of voter fraud. We must let every last legal vote to be counted, the court process to play out, every irregularity to be investigated, and the elections to be certified.
Americans need to have faith that the outcome was legitimate. Right now many do not.
And once that is over - win or lose - we must accept the outcome of this election.
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Don't think federal marshals have jurisdiction over enforcement of state court orders, assuming hypothetically there existed any state court orders that required enforcement.
Perfect. 👍
Biden's AZ margin climbed back over 20k. The vote counting nerds on Twitter are basically saying it's over. Joe will win AZ.
I guess the Fox/AP people knew something we didn't. Or they just got lucky ;)
Dropped down to 16,592 8 minutes ago in AZ. it looks to me like Trump is going to pull a squeaker in AZ.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2020, 06:45:55 PM
it looks to me like Trump is going to pull a squeaker in AZ.
Nope I read the numbers wrong. Biden in a squeaker.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 06:05:21 AM
This election was rough on me. I was so nervous that I had a psychotic episode. After pulling a bunch of nails out of the wall and getting some sleep I think I'm okay.
:hug:
I'm sorry, Raz. I hope you're doing better now. :wub:
Yeah, I'm doing good. I can usually identify when my thoughts don't make any sense.
Biden is up to 90 cents on PredictIt. :hmm:
Don't the fees make it not worth buying at that rate?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 09, 2020, 02:40:45 AM
Don't the fees make it not worth buying at that rate?
It is worth buying at that rate but you won't make much. The site takes a 5% cut of your withdrawals plus 10% of any winnings, so if you deposit just to make this bet and then withdraw you will make about 5% on your investment. The site is insane with right wing conspiracy theories pumping Trump's chances. (hopefully, if they have merit I'm going to lose all my money :P)
The site is legal because it is associated to a university in New Zealand supposedly for research purposes and limits participants in any market to 5,000 and you can't bet more than $850 in any market. A straight up bet on Biden or Trump is probably at the limit at this point so you can't bet. However, there are duplicate "hidden" markets that are not full. For example, if you can't bet on "Biden" because it is full, you can still probably bet on the market "Massachusetts Democratic Primary Winner to be Elected President" - Biden won that primary. I can help you find them if you want to bet.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.
I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
What a moron. Should be time for a new democratic leader in the senate. I bet the republicans would have paid $50 million to get him on tape saying that, and he did it for free. I'm sure I'll be seeing it a thousand times in ads before the runoffs.
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.
Which transwoman? There were several who won.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
What a moron. Should be time for a new democratic leader in the senate. I bet the republicans would have paid $50 million to get him on tape saying that, and he did it for free. I'm sure I'll be seeing it a thousand times in ads before the runoffs.
I'm not sure why this statement was bad.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
What a moron. Should be time for a new democratic leader in the senate. I bet the republicans would have paid $50 million to get him on tape saying that, and he did it for free. I'm sure I'll be seeing it a thousand times in ads before the runoffs.
The Democrats are probably counting on people who want change.
Yeah I don't get what's so bad about that either.
There was another famous gentleman who wanted to change the world. His name was Adolf Christ.
It may sound bad because it feeds into the narrative that the left is trying to engineer the society to be more like what they think it should be. However, while one should avoid things like "defund the police", at some point you have to state the motivation for people to vote.
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:38:18 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
What a moron. Should be time for a new democratic leader in the senate. I bet the republicans would have paid $50 million to get him on tape saying that, and he did it for free. I'm sure I'll be seeing it a thousand times in ads before the runoffs.
I'm not sure why this statement was bad.
Because almost every statewide republican ad in Georgia tries to tie democrats to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer / national democrats. "A vote for X is a vote for Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and the radical left in Washington."
The Democrat counters with ads "Hey, I grew up in *insert small town* and have Georgia values and will take those to Washington with an independent voice." It isn't going to help to have Chuck Schumer of all people in NYC talking to a crowd about how they are going to take Georgia.
I know that Biden just beat Trump by 9k votes or whatever, but I don't think there is a single statewide office holder here. There are two runoffs, but the republican tickets got more votes in both senate races (though neither the required 50%). Neither a governor nor a senator has been elected from the democratic party since 2000. Runoff electorates in Georgia are typically more republican than general elections.
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:38:18 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
What a moron. Should be time for a new democratic leader in the senate. I bet the republicans would have paid $50 million to get him on tape saying that, and he did it for free. I'm sure I'll be seeing it a thousand times in ads before the runoffs.
I'm not sure why this statement was bad.
To conservatives, change is akin to evil. Especially in Georgia.
Remember, they are all commies. Having this foreign commie talk about Georgia is a recipe for an uprising.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:56:19 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.
What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
It reminds me of one of my favourites, when Paul Boateng won his seat in 1987: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto!"
But yeah - that is not helpful and I don't really see what Schumer is hoping to achieve by speaking to rallies in New York except his ego.
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:56:19 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.
What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.
In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).
The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 09, 2020, 12:33:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:54:36 AM
Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"
It reminds me of one of my favourites, when Paul Boateng won his seat in 1987: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto!"
But yeah - that is not helpful and I don't really see what Schumer is hoping to achieve by speaking to rallies in New York except his ego.
There's a saying that the most dangerous place to be is the space between Chuck Schumer and a microphone.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:56:19 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.
What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.
In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).
The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.
But surely you would also take away the votes credited for Nixon in Alabama, 238,000, for the same reason.
I mean I think it is the right message to say that a vote for Perdue and Loeffler is a vote for the status quo and do nothing politics, While Ossoff and Warnock have a whole slate of things they are going to deliver for Georgia right away if elected.
But, you know, maybe it is not so useful to draw their attention to the fact that a New Yorker is going to be doing all the changing.
Quote from: merithyn on November 09, 2020, 11:31:23 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.
Which transwoman? There were several who won.
My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 01:02:11 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:56:19 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:14:01 PM
Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.
Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.
What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.
In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).
The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.
But surely you would also take away the votes credited for Nixon in Alabama, 238,000, for the same reason.
You wouldn't. Googling on this a bit more (only on wikipedia--somewhere i read a more authoritative analysis of this some time ago), it seems there were 22 electors on the ballot--11 democrats and 11 republicans. The republicans were pledged to Nixon.
5 democrats were pledged to Kennedy and 6 promised to vote dixiecrat.
So the highest vote total for a Nixon elector is probably representative of the voters that went to the polls to vote for Nixon.
There is no way to precisely figure out for the democrats. Obviously many of them preferred dixiecrat, and many preferred kennedy. Based on the primary they had a slate of 6 dixiecrat and 5 kennedy.
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 01:07:08 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 09, 2020, 11:31:23 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.
Which transwoman? There were several who won.
My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.
Dunno about that local race here in Virginia, you'd have to be more specific.
I think you might be thinking of the race for Sheriff in Hamilton County, Ohio, where the woman who was fired by the previous sheriff for being a lesbian ran against his anointed successor and won. That's not the case of a trans woman, though, as far as I know.
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 01:06:30 PM
I mean I think it is the right message to say that a vote for Perdue and Loeffler is a vote for the status quo and do nothing politics, While Ossoff and Warnock have a whole slate of things they are going to deliver for Georgia right away if elected.
But, you know, maybe it is not so useful to draw their attention to the fact that a New Yorker is going to be doing all the changing.
Here is the number 1 positive ad that was featured by Perdue on youtube in November--I'll give you a hint--it is called "The Road To Socialism Will Never Run Through The State Of Georgia".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfOg0EKiq9M
In probably the most famous ad of the negative campaign, Perdue's ad exaggerated the size his Jewish opponent's nose. You can see it here at the 11 second point:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fU23dJBw-o
The ad, like most of the negative ads, features a picture of Chuck Schumer. It says, "Democrats are trying to buy Georgia" and "Schumer spending $3 MILLION in Georgia for Jon Ossoff!"
Schumer has to know he is toxic in Georgia elections and New York isn't that popular either. Last week, Perdue finished with 49.7% of the vote and Ossoff 47.9%. While Perdue failed to clear 50% and thus we are going to a runoff, the odds were already in his favor.
Quote from: grumbler on November 09, 2020, 01:23:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 01:07:08 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 09, 2020, 11:31:23 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.
Which transwoman? There were several who won.
My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.
Dunno about that local race here in Virginia, you'd have to be more specific.
I think you might be thinking of the race for Sheriff in Hamilton County, Ohio, where the woman who was fired by the previous sheriff for being a lesbian ran against his anointed successor and won. That's not the case of a trans woman, though, as far as I know.
The race in question was for District 13 in Virginia's House of Delegates when Danica Roem defeated self-described "chief homophobe" and co-sponsor of the anti-trans bathroom bill Bob Marshall back in 2017. She won again in 2019 against Kelly McGinn.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 01:28:09 PM
Schumer has to know he is toxic in Georgia elections and New York isn't that popular either. Last week, Perdue finished with 49.7% of the vote and Ossoff 47.9%. While Perdue failed to clear 50% and thus we are going to a runoff, the odds were already in his favor.
I think an anti-Donald Trump message, he will probably act like an idiot between now and January, and tie Loeffler and Perdue to him combined with messaging designed to get out and fire up the Democratic voters are the best bets. You cannot hide Chuck Schumer or convince Georgians somehow he doesn't exist.
Every single voter who showed up and voted for Joe Biden in Georgia has to show up for Ossoff and Warnock (and I believe Joe ran ahead of Ossoff for sure), a small percentage of the Trump voters have to stay home, and the third party voters have to stay home or break for Ossoff and Warnock. It is a long shot.
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 01:57:51 PM
I think an anti-Donald Trump message, he will probably act like an idiot between now and January, and tie Loeffler and Perdue to him combined with messaging designed to get out and fire up the Democratic voters are the best bets. You cannot hide Chuck Schumer or convince Georgians somehow he doesn't exist.
Every single voter who showed up and voted for Joe Biden in Georgia has to show up for Ossoff and Warnock, a small percentage of the Trump voters have to stay home, and the third party voters have to stay home or break for Ossoff and Warnock. It is a long shot.
Why run with an anti-Trump message when he's lost?
Arguably the bigger risk with Trump is that he keeps pushing a message that the electoral system is fraudulent and focusing attention of his supporters on his legal fights etc. That's probably not helpful messaging for the GOP in Georgia. They'd probably rather he was in Georgia focusing on Loeffler and Perdue and trying to increase turnout. He will be, at best, a distraction.
I think the rallies will be held more to sell off Trump 2020 gear, MAGA items, and to help refill his coffers more than anything else. He has to maintain the air of doing them to keep up the fight against the "stolen" election though or no one will come and buy copies of Don Jr's book.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 09, 2020, 02:02:47 PM
Why run with an anti-Trump message when he's lost?
Because he is still President and will be when this election takes place and it was the anti-Trump coalition that just barely won the state.
And he will still dominate the news cycle.
QuoteArguably the bigger risk with Trump is that he keeps pushing a message that the electoral system is fraudulent and focusing attention of his supporters on his legal fights etc. That's probably not helpful messaging for the GOP in Georgia. They'd probably rather he was in Georgia focusing on Loeffler and Perdue and trying to increase turnout.
And that's good. Maybe some of his voters will not even show up or maybe the Trump/GOP establishment fight will really hurt the Republicans in this election.
QuoteHe will be, at best, a distraction.
A distraction from Chuck Schumer and the New York liberals.
I think the rallies are just to make Donald Trump feel better.
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 09, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
The race in question was for District 13 in Virginia's House of Delegates when Danica Roem defeated self-described "chief homophobe" and co-sponsor of the anti-trans bathroom bill Bob Marshall back in 2017. She won again in 2019 against Kelly McGinn.
Ah. I assumed that we were discussing this election, not the 2017 election. Thanks for the clarification.
Quote from: grumbler on November 09, 2020, 02:10:25 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 09, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
The race in question was for District 13 in Virginia's House of Delegates when Danica Roem defeated self-described "chief homophobe" and co-sponsor of the anti-trans bathroom bill Bob Marshall back in 2017. She won again in 2019 against Kelly McGinn.
Ah. I assumed that we were discussing this election, not the 2017 election. Thanks for the clarification.
I presume that is what was being referenced in terms of the trans woman beating the bathroom bill guy. There were trans individuals elected this cycle as well though, so perhaps people had read an article combining the progress in representation made by the group the last few elections?
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 01:57:51 PM
I think an anti-Donald Trump message, he will probably act like an idiot between now and January, and tie Loeffler and Perdue to him combined with messaging designed to get out and fire up the Democratic voters are the best bets. You cannot hide Chuck Schumer or convince Georgians somehow he doesn't exist.
Every single voter who showed up and voted for Joe Biden in Georgia has to show up for Ossoff and Warnock (and I believe Joe ran ahead of Ossoff for sure), a small percentage of the Trump voters have to stay home, and the third party voters have to stay home or break for Ossoff and Warnock. It is a long shot.
Warnock is an awesome candidate and oozes charisma, but Ossoff really sucks. Loeffler is a terrible candidate -- Perdue is completely unremarkable.
I doubt many people will vote a split ticket though.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 03:08:20 PM
Warnock is an awesome candidate and oozes charisma, but Ossoff really sucks. Loeffler is a terrible candidate -- Perdue is completely unremarkable.
I doubt many people will vote a split ticket though.
If that is true then Warnock vs Loeffler needs to be the focus of the effort in Georgia. If you can win that one Ossoff might sneak in as well.
Does anyone in the US have a real name?
Like Lars or Olaf? Yes.
Good.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgias-senators-seek-secretary-of-states-resignation-over-election/A3JUFWTWORDH7LTL2XSZ7ODWPA/
QuoteGeorgia's two Republican senators called on Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign Monday, saying he's responsible for unspecified "failures" with the state's elections as they prepare for consequential runoffs Jan. 5.
They provided no evidence to support claims of inaccuracies in Georgia's election, where President-elect Joe Biden led by over 10,500 votes.
Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler joined a growing chorus of Trump supporters claiming there were election irregularities without offering specifics or proof. The two Republicans are attempting to energize conservatives upset over Trump's defeat, though they stopped short of saying it was "stolen."
"We believe when there are failures, they need to be called out — even when it's in your own party," said the joint statement from Perdue and Loeffler. "The secretary of state has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."
The senators didn't say what they thought went wrong in the election.
Their letter came after the secretary of state's office on Monday debunked several conspiracy theories about missing or mishandled ballots.
State election officials said it's false that military ballots went missing, ballots were dumped in Spalding County, ballots were harvested or results were inaccurate.
"The facts are the facts, regardless of outcomes," said Gabriel Sterling, the state's voting system manager for the secretary of state's office during a press conference before the senators' statement. "That's one of the things we're focusing on here, is getting our count accurate and right."
The balance of power in the U.S. Senate might be at stake during Georgia's runoffs on Jan. 5. Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff, and Loeffler is opposed by Democrat Raphael Warnock.
Within minutes of the senators' attack on Raffensperger, Trump appeared to back them up.
"Georgia will be a big presidential win, as it was the night of the Election!" Trump wrote on Twitter.
Raffensperger didn't immediately provide a comment.
A recount of the presidential race is likely.
Georgia law gives losing candidates the right to a recount upon request if they lost by less than half a percentage point.
Trump's campaign announced that U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, who finished third in the U.S. Senate special election, will lead the effort to find evidence of "irregularities that will prove that President Trump won Georgia."
So far, local and state election officials haven't found evidence of anything more than minor issues caused by human error in a handful of counties, Sterling said. All problems have been corrected before certification of results.
They're getting desperate down here.
What I don't get about those fraud claims - if cheating decided the decided the vote in favor of Biden then why didn't the conspirators also rig the Senate and House polls?
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 09, 2020, 02:42:19 PM
Quote from: grumbler on November 09, 2020, 02:10:25 PM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on November 09, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
The race in question was for District 13 in Virginia's House of Delegates when Danica Roem defeated self-described "chief homophobe" and co-sponsor of the anti-trans bathroom bill Bob Marshall back in 2017. She won again in 2019 against Kelly McGinn.
Ah. I assumed that we were discussing this election, not the 2017 election. Thanks for the clarification.
I presume that is what was being referenced in terms of the trans woman beating the bathroom bill guy. There were trans individuals elected this cycle as well though, so perhaps people had read an article combining the progress in representation made by the group the last few elections?
both of you made mistake of parsing a tyr post.
Quote from: Syt on November 09, 2020, 04:07:06 PM
What I don't get about those fraud claims - if cheating decided the decided the vote in favor of Biden then why didn't the conspirators also rig the Senate and House polls?
:rolleyes: need to play more 4D chess syt!
Quote from: Syt on November 09, 2020, 04:07:06 PM
What I don't get about those fraud claims - if cheating decided the decided the vote in favor of Biden then why didn't the conspirators also rig the Senate and House polls?
The cheating accusations are absolutely ludicrous but Trump has his supporters believing them and the Senate candidates are terrified his supporters will blame the GOP (and not vote for them in the runoff). So the Republican secretary of state gets thrown under the bus.
What I don't get is why Trump supporters believe him. Maybe you think Trump is great despite a strained relationship with the truth, but at this point how can you think he is the most credible guy in the room?
Apparently Mike Pence is going on vacation for a week in Florida :lol:
I guess that's where he'll hide out waiting for the court fight charade to pass.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 09, 2020, 04:28:43 PM
Apparently Mike Pence is going on vacation for a week in Florida :lol:
I guess that's where he'll hide out waiting for the court fight charade to pass.
Smart man.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 09, 2020, 04:28:43 PM
Apparently Mike Pence is going on vacation for a week in Florida :lol:
I guess that's where he'll hide out waiting for the court fight charade to pass.
Mar a Lago? :P
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2020, 04:31:33 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 09, 2020, 04:28:43 PM
Apparently Mike Pence is going on vacation for a week in Florida :lol:
I guess that's where he'll hide out waiting for the court fight charade to pass.
Mar a Lago? :P
A four seasons :P
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 04:18:05 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 09, 2020, 04:07:06 PM
What I don't get about those fraud claims - if cheating decided the decided the vote in favor of Biden then why didn't the conspirators also rig the Senate and House polls?
The cheating accusations are absolutely ludicrous but Trump has his supporters believing them and the Senate candidates are terrified his supporters will blame the GOP (and not vote for them in the runoff). So the Republican secretary of state gets thrown under the bus.
What I don't get is why Trump supporters believe him. Maybe you think Trump is great despite a strained relationship with the truth, but at this point how can you think he is the most credible guy in the room?
I'm not sure anyone believes them even within Trump's inner circle. The counting process is almost over and the certification process will be going on over the next month or so, once these votes are certified it's incredibly unlikely you can do much of anything legally. Compare the scope and type of lawsuits that Trump's team are filing--what amount to mostly limited # of ballots involved, limited scope cases that even if they
won would not change the outcome to the lawsuits around FL2000 that directly and materially involved the mechanism of deciding the overall election.
It's not just that Trump's team isn't winning cases, they aren't even on the field of battle you would need to be on to actually win
the election. That suggests these cases have no real purpose other than to make Trump feel good and give him things that make him happy to tweet about. I imagine he'll have a whole second meltdown when it's more publicly obvious that none of these cases can do anything he wants.
Even for example the most expansive case, the one that is asking the Supreme Court to say Pennsylvania was wrong to extend the mail in ballot deadline because it violates the privileges of the State Legislature under the U.S. Constitution, would not actually overturn the results in this specific case, if it was ruled on the way Trump wanted it would likely open us to more confused and bad situations in the future, but wouldn't be able to change enough votes on the field right now to meaningfully impact Trump's outcome.
The thing about PA is Trump lost decisively when you counted all the votes that got in
on or before election day, the late arriving votes are a meme because Biden had already won by tens of thousands of votes before any of those had even been counted. A lot of more casual observers assumed the ballots PA was counting from Weds thru Saturday were mostly those late arrivals--they weren't, that was just them (very slowly) counting all the mail in ballots that had arrived sometimes weeks ago. Most counties had relatively few ballots come in after the election date.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 04:18:05 PM
What I don't get is why Trump supporters believe him.
Same reason they believe Mexico will pay for the nonexistent wall.
Believing in the absurd and obviously false is how you demonstrate the faith.
Fox has really changed its tune.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1325927279957057537
Quote from: Maladict on November 09, 2020, 06:05:00 PM
Fox has really changed its tune.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1325927279957057537
:lol:
Quote from: 11B4V on November 09, 2020, 06:14:32 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 09, 2020, 06:05:00 PM
Fox has really changed its tune.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1325927279957057537
:lol:
about 4 years too late but better late than never I guess.
NC has started to report, three small batches (so presumably rural?), Joe is averaging 64%, needs 70%. So looks like NC is in play.
What does Cunningham need is what I want to know.
Arizona looks to be shifting slowly trumpwards
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 07:48:41 PM
What does Cunningham need is what I want to know.
Trump is up 74,899 votes; Tillis is up 95,338.
I doubt it will happen, especially not for Tillis.
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 08:17:01 PM
Arizona looks to be shifting slowly trumpwards
A good sized chunk just broke even, helping out Joe.
Biscuit Scraper is now reporting only 5,503 left to count in GA (he has been reporting "unknown" for a while now) and Joe leading by 12,338. :cool:
Now he's changed his mind back to unknown.
Operation DISCREDIT THE VOTE continues.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-republicans-election-challenges/2020/11/09/49e2c238-22c4-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html
QuoteTop Republicans back Trump's efforts to challenge election results
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans on Monday backed President Trump's efforts to contest his loss to President-elect Joe Biden, despite the lack of evidence of significant fraud and sharp rebukes from election officials who defended the integrity of the vote.
McConnell (R-Ky.) said from the floor of the Senate that the president is "100 percent within his right" to pursue recounts and litigation. McConnell did not repeat Trump's baseless assertions that fraud had cost him the election, but he said he had met with Attorney General William P. Barr earlier in the day and supports the president's right to investigate all claims of wrongdoing.
"We have the tools and institutions we need to address any concerns," McConnell said. "The president has every right to look into allegations and request recounts under the law."
Separately, Barr on Monday gave federal prosecutors a green light to pursue allegations of voting irregularities in certain cases before results are certified. The memo appeared to reverse previous Justice Department guidance that prosecutors generally should not take overt steps in cases involving alleged voter fraud until results are in and official.
Meanwhile, other GOP officials also rushed to bolster Trump's case, including the two U.S. senators from Georgia, who demanded the resignation of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, after his office said there was no evidence of widespread fraud in the state.
And the Republican attorneys general of about a dozen states threw their support behind a legal effort pending before the U.S. Supreme Court to throw out mail ballots in Pennsylvania that were received after Election Day — a small number of votes that state officials said would not be enough to change the outcome.
Behind the scenes, Trump advisers and allies are increasingly resigned to a Biden victory, according to people familiar with internal discussions, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private conversations.
But few so far are actively discouraging the president or his campaign from pursuing all legal paths to contest the results. Only a smattering of Republican senators have acknowledged Biden's victory, and there has been little coaxing on the part of senior GOP lawmakers to help Trump come to terms with his loss. Some said there is value in ensuring the integrity of this year's results, while others described a chaotic and scattershot operation that they hoped would eventually push Trump to cooperate in a peaceful transfer of power.
"What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change," said one senior Republican official. "He went golfing this weekend. It's not like he's plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He's tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he'll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he'll leave."
Still, Trump's rhetoric has inflamed some of his supporters around the country, who have gathered in small "Stop the Steal" protests and declared that they do not have faith in the results.
As a result, two starkly different tones prevailed throughout the day. Inside the White House, aides described a deflated president aware of the difficulty of reversing the outcome and even declaring plans to run again in 2024. But publicly, Trump fired off tweet after combative tweet asserting without evidence that results in Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada had been illegally rigged against him. And his campaign announced at least one new federal lawsuit, in Pennsylvania, seeking to block state officials from certifying the results.
"Pennsylvania prevented us from watching much of the Ballot count," Trump tweeted despite extensive reporting, and some live feeds, showing poll watchers had access. "Unthinkable and illegal in this country."
Since Election Day, the Trump campaign and GOP allies have made claims of election irregularities in six states where Biden holds the lead in the vote count. But they have yet to prove any widespread fraud and have largely suffered defeat in courts.
And much of the legal activity Monday recycled previously dismissed allegations. The new Pennsylvania suit filed by the Trump campaign alleged — again — that some counties had improperly allowed voters to fix problems on mail ballots, a claim that was thrown out last week. It also falsely claimed that observers were not allowed to watch the processing and counting of ballots.
Trump aides, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly, said there was little expectation inside the campaign that litigation would overturn Biden's win — and said advisers have told Trump this directly. But they also said the campaign will pursue the cases to their conclusions, in part to sustain an argument about the risk of voter fraud. The campaign has also urged allies to publicly encourage people to report evidence or firsthand accounts of suspicious voter activity.
The campaign's top two officials, Bill Stepien and Justin Clark, met with the staff at their Arlington headquarters Monday and urged them to keep fighting, officials said, adding that campaign leaders were closely watching who was still showing up.
But further complicating their effort: David Bossie, tapped to lead the campaign's legal effort, tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a person familiar with the situation.
It was clear Monday the campaign's strategy is at least as much about rhetoric as about legal tactics. Clark, the deputy campaign manager, and others spent the weekend assembling a plan — and a messaging strategy — for various states, officials said. The campaign also sent out "talkers" — talking points — that included such suggestions as "This election is far from over," "Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states," and "Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media."
In Michigan, where Republicans have so far lost their legal challenges, a conservative nonprofit law firm filed a new suit asserting that ballots in Wayne County, home of Detroit, had been counted from voters not on the rolls and without verification of voter signatures, citing six signed affidavits. The suit also alleged that Republican poll watchers were not allowed to witness the counting, even though more than 200 GOP challengers were inside the counting room at the TCF Center in Detroit, where votes were counted last week.
"The allegations in this suit appear to be an exaggeration of routine situations that arise every election," said Christopher Trebilcock, a longtime Democratic election lawyer in Michigan. "They either don't understand the process or don't care what the law actually provides."
In Nevada, the Trump campaign and Republicans have already lost two attempts to get courts to order changes to ballot counting in Clark County, the state's largest Democratic stronghold. State and federal judges rejected their demands for emergency intervention, citing a lack of evidence of any widespread voter fraud.
In response, Trump allies made a slew of new unsubstantiated allegations. On Sunday, Matt Schlapp of the American Conservative Union claimed "thousands of examples of voter irregularities," including a "Biden-Harris van" at the Clark County vote-counting center in which ballots were "opened with letter openers, and ballots were filled in and resealed."
Asked about the GOP's various fraud allegations Monday, Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said his office had forwarded allegations to the secretary of state for investigation. "If there's anything that's been done illegally, unfortunately, we're going to find it," he said.
Gloria said he was confident in the election results. "We've had answers for every allegation that has been brought forward," he said. "All we want to do is count votes."
The office of Nevada Attorney General Aaron D. Ford, meanwhile, said no formal complaints had been filed to his office as of Monday evening.
In Georgia, a new level of intraparty hostility burst into view between Republicans who have questioned the election's integrity and those who have publicly defended it.
Trump allies seized on the news that a small number of ballots had not been scanned over the weekend in Fulton County, home of Atlanta. The news prompted a story from the conservative website Breitbart News — and a tweet from the president — suggesting that the additional ballots might alter the outcome. Critics also falsely accused Fulton County election officials of not allowing Republicans to watch the process.
In fact, only 342 ballots were affected, and the county invited members of both political parties and a monitor from the Georgia secretary of state's office to Atlanta's State Farm Arena, the elections headquarters, to observe. A Raffensperger adviser also rejected broader claims of voter fraud.
Gabriel Sterling, the voting system implementation manager at the secretary of state's office, said claims of widespread illegal activity were false, calling Election Day "an amazing success" and chastising those "trying to undermine the system that was put together" by state and county officials.
Later in the day, Georgia's two Republican senators, both headed to runoff elections Jan. 5, demanded that Raffensperger resign.
"There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems," Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue said in the statement, which did not list a single example of a problem. "The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections."
In a fiery response, Raffensperger said he would not step down and defended the election process as orderly and transparent.
"I know emotions are running high," Raffensperger said. "Politics are involved in everything right now. If I was Senator Perdue, I'd be irritated I was in a runoff. And both Senators and I are all unhappy with the potential outcome for our President."
Biden's 11,595-vote lead in Georgia means the race is eligible for a recount, but Raffensperger emphasized it was unlikely to change the outcome of the election.
Just as more Republicans came forward to back Trump's legal push, others came forward to urge the country to move on.
"At this stage, I think the transition should be underway, even though it's not finalized," said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). "We want to make sure that the interests of national security and smooth transition is carried out."
After having the RUSSIA HOAX hanging over the Trump it seems Republicans want to repay the favor by casting a permanent doubt over the Biden presidency, even if only their hardcore base will really believe it. If nothing else, it will be ammunition for them to make voting harder for people they don't want to vote under the guide of "PROTECTING DEMOCRACY".
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220)
Quote from: katmai on November 10, 2020, 01:17:38 AM
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220)
DeEp StaTE rAtS LeaVInG tHe SinKINg SHip!!!!1111oneonee
Quote from: katmai on November 10, 2020, 01:17:38 AM
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/doj-s-election-crimes-chief-resigns-after-barr-directs-prosecutors-n1247220)
Trump doesn't need him. Giuliani will take the case all the way to the Supreme Court Landscaping.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1325991277364588551?s=20
Lindsey Graham: "Mitch McConnell and I need to come up with an oversight of mail in balloting. If we don't do something about voting by mail, we're going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country."
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 03:58:51 AM
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1325991277364588551?s=20
Lindsey Graham: "Mitch McConnell and I need to come up with an oversight of mail in balloting. If we don't do something about voting by mail, we're going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country."
I'm still flabbergasted people will say this kind of stuff out loud. :wacko:
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 08:23:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 07:48:41 PM
What does Cunningham need is what I want to know.
Trump is up 74,899 votes; Tillis is up 95,338.
I doubt it will happen, especially not for Tillis.
It is really striking that in NC and GA Trump is running a fair bit behind the Senators. What's the opposte of coat-tails?
QuoteLindsey Graham: "Mitch McConnell and I need to come up with an oversight of mail in balloting. If we don't do something about voting by mail, we're going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country."
And the opposite is true. The GOP have done well in a high turnout election. They can make it work/reach to a majority.
From BoJo:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1325133262075940864/photo/1
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPRWjyVoAEBIBI?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
People pointed out that you can faintly see "Trump" still in the note, so that the graphic was either edited or recycled from 4 years ago.
People did the work online, but I also checked in Photoshop. And when you open the graphic in a separate window and zoom in you can see something's there.
I set tolerance to 0 (hah!), selected the background, inverted selection, copied as new layer and overlaid a flat color over that layer and got this:
(https://i.postimg.cc/8zQSMmfh/Untitled-1.jpg)
EDIT: My guess: they reused an old file. Instead of deleting the contents, or putting a flat color box as background, they used a paintbrush that was not set to 100% opacity and/or 100% sharpness and just painted over the existing graphic until it "looked fine"
Meanwhile, Biden is down to 86 cents. I think we already have our Benghazi for Biden's presidency.
Yeah, the GOP may be shooting themselves in the foot with continually trying to depress turnout. The Dems are increasing their margins with high-turnout voters.
The GOP was competitive this time around because they swept through every corner of the country and found low-turnout, low information voters and Trump turned it up to 11. Will these voters come out when Donald Trump is not on the ticket? They didn't in 2018. :hmm:
Of course why bother with turnout if you can just disenfranchise your political opponents. Or consider all election outcomes illegal if your side lost.
Add Pfizer and the FDA to the growing list of Trump's enemies.
QuoteDonald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr., without evidence, accuse Pfizer of deliberately waiting until after Election Day to release its COVID-19 vaccine trial results
* President Donald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. on Monday baselessly accused Pfizer of deliberately waiting until after the US election to announce the promising early results of its COVID-19 vaccine trials.
* Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Monday told CNN that Pfizer had simply released the results "when the science told us the data was available."
* Though the announcement came Monday from Pfizer, and not a government organization, Trump speculated on Twitter that Democrats and even the US Food and Drug Administration "didn't want to have me get a Vaccine WIN, prior to the election."
* The younger Trump suggested the timing of Pfizer's late-stage-trial results, which suggested the company's vaccine was more than 90% effective, was "nefarious."
President Donald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. claimed on Monday that Pfizer deliberately waited until after the US election to announce the promising early results from its COVID-19 vaccine's late-stage clinical trial.
They offered no evidence for their claims.
Pfizer on Monday said its experimental coronavirus vaccine had succeeded in the final stage of clinical trials: The shot was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19, the company said, a milestone in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
Both Trump and his son took to Twitter to speculate about the timing of Pfizer's announcement, made six days after Election Day.
Though it was Pfizer that made the announcement, Trump tweeted Monday night attacking the US Food and Drug Administration and Democrats, which he said "didn't want to have me get a Vaccine WIN, prior to the election."
He added that Pfizer "didn't have the courage" to issue the statement earlier.
A Pfizer spokesperson told Business Insider that the timing had nothing to do with the election.
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
As I have long said, @Pfizer and the others would only announce a Vaccine after the Election, because they didn't have the courage to do it before. Likewise, the @US_FDA should have announced it earlier, not for political purposes, but for saving lives!
The younger Trump called the timing of Pfizer's announcement "pretty amazing" and suggested he thought the timing was "nefarious."
The president had previously claimed a vaccine would be ready by Election Day. In mid-October, Pfizer said it planned to submit its COVID-19 vaccine for FDA authorization in late November.
Trump also tweeted that if President-elect Joe Biden had been in the White House, "you wouldn't have the Vaccine for another four years, nor would the FDA have ever approved it so quickly."
The data Pfizer announced on Monday came from an analysis that took place while its coronavirus vaccine trial is still ongoing. The analysis was conducted by an independent group of scientists responsible for monitoring the trial. The outside scientists performed their analysis on November 8 and told Pfizer of the results that day.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla first learned of the trial results on Sunday, he told CNN in an interview on Monday, adding that he hadn't yet seen the data yet himself.
Though Pfizer had looked at the data several times throughout the trial, it didn't have enough infections in its test group to draw meaningful conclusions until Sunday, Bourla said.
When questioned about the "remarkable" postelection timing of the results, Bourla said Pfizer had simply released them "when the science told us the data was available."
A Pfizer spokesperson told Business Insider that the timing "did not have to do with the election."
Pfizer had initially planned to conduct the analysis after 32 people in the trial got sick with COVID-19. However, after discussions with the US Food and Drug Administration, the company decided to delay that analysis, conducting it after at least 62 people got sick, the company said on Monday. Pfizer didn't say why it made that change.
By the time the outside experts analyzed the study, 94 people had gotten sick, mainly among those who received a placebo, instead of the working vaccine. The results showed that Pfizer's vaccine was more than 90% effective at preventing the coronavirus, Pfizer said.
Bourla had repeatedly talked up the prospects for his company to deliver coronavirus-vaccine data in October. In September, he appeared on The "Today" show and CBS' "Face The Nation" to predict "we will have an answer by the end of October."
Pfizer's ambitious timeline aligned with President Donald Trump's repeated predictions of having success on a vaccine before Election Day, but it didn't come to pass.
Trump celebrated Pfizer's announcement
Trump's tweets Monday night were in stark contrast to earlier ones he had sent about Pfizer's announcement throughout the day.
He had called the trial results "SUCH GREAT NEWS!"
Vice President Mike Pence also tweeted about the development, though he misleadingly presented Pfizer's milestone as an accomplishment of the Trump administration.
Pence tweeted that Pfizer had developed its vaccine "thanks to the public-private partnership forged by President Trump."
While the US government did place a large order over the summer for Pfizer's vaccine, the company was never part of Operation Warp Speed, the government's initiative to accelerate the development and distribution of a vaccine, and Pfizer said it had never taken any money from the US government to aid its research.
It would be hilarious if the first vaccinations start on some random date like January 21st.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 10, 2020, 04:44:58 AM
It is really striking that in NC and GA Trump is running a fair bit behind the Senators. What's the opposte of coat-tails?
Contrary to stereotypes about NC and GA, both states are similar in that they have cities with highly educated and high earning professionals. Even back before civil rights, those were the major base of the Republican party. It looks like Trump turned out the rednecks in the sticks, and the educated professionals kept voting Republican down ticket, but a lot of those educated professionals went for Biden. But since he turned out the rednecks, it is possible he pushed the senators over the top, even if he faltered. Education is one of the best indicators of turnout, so those educated professionals voting for Trump were probably going to vote anyway.
I saw a map of Trump's performance vs. Senators, and while he underperformed in some states, on balance he probably overperformed.
Amazingly deluded. If there had been some control of the release then leaving it till after the election would be the smartest way to make sure it doesn't interfere with politics.
https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1326156414692315136?s=20
QuoteEric Trump
@EricTrump
Minnesota get out and vote!!!
2:35 PM · Nov 10, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
:unsure: :lmfao:
Since the Tweet might disappear later, here it's as a screenshot:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Emd6Q2RXUAYqUuM?format=jpg&name=small)
Senator Chris Coons (close friend to Biden) said on CNN this morning that his colleagues in the Senate are asking him to convey their congratulations to the new President-elect privately because they can't do so publicly yet :lol:
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1326156414692315136?s=20
QuoteEric Trump
@EricTrump
Minnesota get out and vote!!!
2:35 PM · Nov 10, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
:unsure: :lmfao:
Since the Tweet might disappear later, here it's as a screenshot:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Emd6Q2RXUAYqUuM?format=jpg&name=small)
:huh:
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
Since the Tweet might disappear later, here it's as a screenshot:
Looks like it's already gone. He really is the family idiot.
Quote from: DGuller on November 10, 2020, 07:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, Biden is down to 86 cents. I think we already have our Benghazi for Biden's presidency.
It is so ridiculous. I now have $26k on the site and I feel like I don't have nearly enough money to cover all the epically stupid bets out there. The only logical explanation I can come up with is that Trump nation really believes him.
I mean, the Michigan senate race was called, the votes counted, and the republican is down about 85k votes. Every media outlet has called the race. I thus thought I made a great bet by placing max bets against the Republican and on the Democrat at 96 cents. But then Trump and the Senate candidate started screaming "FRAUD!" and the price is now 88 cents.
I can't think of a conceivable scenario that gets John James (the republican candidate) into the senate when he is down 85k votes and the votes have been counted.
Quote from: Maladict on November 10, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
Since the Tweet might disappear later, here it's as a screenshot:
Looks like it's already gone. He really is the family idiot.
Someday, he is going to be our president.
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
If you understand the myriad differences, where is the irony?
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
There was a little speculation about how the Russians could have affected the count, but aside from a conspiratorial fringe, those allegations weren't aired. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 10, 2020, 12:55:03 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
If you understand the myriad differences, where is the irony?
It showcases the level of tribalism and denial. Especially on the fascist side of course, but the left is far from being free of it as well. Even here several people liked to attribute Trump's success to Russian trollfarms, but this election has proved quite conclusively that there's more than enough support for his kind of so called "leadership" without any noticeable meddling. Only reason he lost is that luckily the fascists' attempts at voter suppression didn't work, and Trump managed to mobilise more people against himself than for.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 10, 2020, 12:59:05 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
There was a little speculation about how the Russians could have affected the count, but aside from a conspiratorial fringe, those allegations weren't aired. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Oh come on now.
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
I thought the issue was that Russia was spreading misinformation and that kind of thing not actually changing votes and so forth.
I don't pay a ton of attention to scandal mongering so sometimes I admit I didn't get all the details, or they didn't stick much with me.
Ah well. I only asked an investigation be done, an investigation was done, and I hope lessons were learned to help with that kind of foreign interference in the future. If there were issues with this election I only ask for the same. There probably are some ways our elections could be done better.
New York still has over 2 million votes to count. Come on!
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 12:51:24 PM
I of course understand the myriad differences between the two, but it is still a bit ironic how the non-fascist side went from "well OF COURSE there was Russian meddling in the US election" in 2016 to "LOL of course it is IMPOSSIBLE to meddle in the US election" while the fascist side did the exact thing just in the opposite direction.
Apart from a myriad of differences, humans and mice are exactly the same. The one very key difference is that Russian meddling was not alleged to tamper with the votes cast, it was just alleged to influence how the people voted.
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 01:01:06 PM
Oh come on now.
I always thought the allegations around Russians was that they influenced the campaign not the count: misinformation, bots on social media, hacking the DNC/Clintons and releasing leaks at appropriate times etc. I didn't think it was that they interfered with the vote count itself.
As I've said elsewhere I think the US electoral system is vulnerable to an attack on the actual counting/tallying/reporting infrastructure - but that's just because it's so decentralised. That probably makes it less attractive to, say, Russian hackers and more vulnerable to shit-poster style hackers or criminals using ransomware. It's not likely to be about switching votes or adding votes though.
Lovely detail from one reporter's piece on Latinos on the Mexican border who voted for Trump - they liked the covid cheque signed by Trump and general stimulus. Also, while the wall is deeply unpopular with them, they live close enough to the wall to also know that it's not really being built and Trump is just bullshitting :lol:
Actually I think that Russia meddled by disinformation etc, not by messing with the votes cast.
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/a43gZey_460sv.mp4
Quote from: Tamas on November 10, 2020, 03:05:27 PM
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/a43gZey_460sv.mp4
Why would I want to click on that?
Do I need to change the thread title again? I mean the actual election result is a foregone conclusion at this point - Biden won.
Whether Trump can manage to steal a second term at this point has nothing to do with the ballotbox.
Tucker Carlson begins to move the goalposts:
https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-election-fraud-may-not-alter-outcome-1546252?fbclid=IwAR2OziUqmUnIfzskU8Ll--Anw4ujIsrFX7VzwRB_J_Ek1soKNKIiZmsGSoc
QuoteTucker Carlson Says There's Not Enough Fraud to Change Election Results: 'We Should Be Honest'
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2020, 03:24:33 PM
Do I need to change the thread title again? I mean the actual election result is a foregone conclusion at this point - Biden won.
Whether Trump can manage to steal a second term at this point has nothing to do with the ballotbox.
Senate still needs to be sorted out, though Tillis officially has won.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 10, 2020, 03:47:21 PM
Tucker Carlson begins to move the goalposts:
https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-election-fraud-may-not-alter-outcome-1546252?fbclid=IwAR2OziUqmUnIfzskU8Ll--Anw4ujIsrFX7VzwRB_J_Ek1soKNKIiZmsGSoc
QuoteTucker Carlson Says There's Not Enough Fraud to Change Election Results: 'We Should Be Honest'
Is he contradicting anything he had said before? Honest question. I don't watch as much Tucker as you guys do.
No clue, as I don't watch him as much as you do. He is definitely contradicting the party line though.
Don't see how he's moving the goal posts, then.
Quote from: Maladict on November 10, 2020, 04:18:46 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 03:58:51 AM
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1325991277364588551?s=20
Lindsey Graham: "Mitch McConnell and I need to come up with an oversight of mail in balloting. If we don't do something about voting by mail, we're going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country."
I'm still flabbergasted people will say this kind of stuff out loud. :wacko:
You and me both.
Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2020, 03:51:19 PM
I don't watch as much Tucker as you guys do.
Hard to watch less than zero :hmm:
Quote from: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 04:17:30 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 10, 2020, 04:18:46 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 03:58:51 AM
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1325991277364588551?s=20
Lindsey Graham: "Mitch McConnell and I need to come up with an oversight of mail in balloting. If we don't do something about voting by mail, we're going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country."
I'm still flabbergasted people will say this kind of stuff out loud. :wacko:
You and me both.
I don't appreciate Graham's scare mongering here. The Republicans have just demonstrated they can do well in a high turnout election. Can we stop the voter suppression nonsense now?
So uh: https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1326229085278842880
I fully expect there will be some kind of elector shenanigans.
I feel that would lead to riots in the streets.
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I feel that would lead to riots in the streets.
Yup
Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2020, 03:51:19 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 10, 2020, 03:47:21 PM
Tucker Carlson begins to move the goalposts:
https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson-election-fraud-may-not-alter-outcome-1546252?fbclid=IwAR2OziUqmUnIfzskU8Ll--Anw4ujIsrFX7VzwRB_J_Ek1soKNKIiZmsGSoc
QuoteTucker Carlson Says There's Not Enough Fraud to Change Election Results: 'We Should Be Honest'
Is he contradicting anything he had said before? Honest question. I don't watch as much Tucker as you guys do.
They are worried IMO. He and others like him have been enablers. Maybe they just might be concerned with what Trump is attempting to do.
Maybe.
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 04:19:34 PM
Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2020, 03:51:19 PM
I don't watch as much Tucker as you guys do.
Hard to watch less than zero :hmm:
I liked him better when he wore a bow tie.
Joe needs 318 in PA to cinch
https://www.fstl1992.com/fstlmerch (https://www.fstl1992.com/fstlmerch) :lol:
Quote from: derspiess on November 10, 2020, 04:09:47 PM
Don't see how he's moving the goal posts, then.
Maybe you should watch less then.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 10, 2020, 08:59:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2020, 06:11:00 PM
Joe needs 318 in PA to cinch
318 what?
Electoral votes. The whole US only needs 270, but PA has a higher standard.
Estimated 40k votes left to count in Arizona
QuoteTrump is averaging 57.7% Trump needs 66.0%
How's you feeling about that bet Dorsey?
And you asserted you watched less than us. I doubt that, since I don't watch him at all.
Glad Joe's still got the running spirit in him then.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 10, 2020, 10:25:57 PM
And you asserted you watched less than us. I doubt that, since I don't watch him at all.
Ok, but without someone admitting to watching him we can't determine that his messaging hasn't been consistent.
I'm not making the assertion that he's changing his own message--he's attempting to modify the greater Republican narrative away from "FRAUD!1" to "a little dusting of fraud, but Trump lost."
I'm not surprised to see Fox distancing themselves from Trump. I commented on Chris Wallace being let off the leash a while back.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2020, 11:09:16 PM
I'm not surprised to see Fox distancing themselves from Trump. I commented on Chris Wallace being let off the leash a while back.
Now I don't get Fox News, never mind watch it, but I do read too much political coverage.
My understanding is this is part of the ongoing split between the Fox news programming (rightish, but mostly fair, of which Chris Wallace is a part of) and the Fox Primetime opinion programming (Hannity, Carlson, and very, very Trumpy).
Yeah, as Beeb says, it really depends on the group. I'm not surprised to see Wallace, Baier, Cavuto, etc. veer away from Trump in his loss. Those folks are much more professional than the opinion-side. I am surprised to see the opinion-side start to give up after what seems a relatively brief struggle.
Maybe Fox realized that it's not in their interest to explode the country, keeping it boiling is where the greatest profits are.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 08, 2020, 02:07:33 AM
Lindsay Graham released an affidavit tonight from an Erie country postal worker alleging ballots arriving at the post office Nov 4 were re-postmarked Nov 3. Even if true it would not significantly impact the result as these ballots are already being challenged as part of the general challenge to postmarked ballots arriving at the clerk's office after Election Day (and those aren't anywhere close to enough to reverse the result).
The affidavit is also somewhat less than compelling. It basically says he overheard a conversation between 2 other people. He did not witness any postmark manipulation himself. He also mentions contacting Project Veritas (infamous for doctoring videos as part of fake exposes), and ends with a reference to "old allegations against me that have since been resolved"
If this is their best shot Biden can sleep easy tonight.
I'm shocked, *shocked* to report that the affiant retracted his claims when he met with postal inspectors. Only to attempt to retract the retraction in a Project Veritas video a few hours ago.
Your average shit show is a couple steps more dignified and wholesome than Trump's post election legal strategy.
News announcers can go back to saying "not a single shred of evidence of fraud." :thumbsup:
Who could have guessed that outsourcing collecting evidence to Jacob Wohl might not work out :(
On Fox and the opinion stuff - I think everyone knows Trump watches it and this is largely a form of large-scale counselling through media to talk him through his anger and grief. As I say, in my view, he is psychologically incapable of losing.
Quote from: 11B4V on November 10, 2020, 05:18:45 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I feel that would lead to riots in the streets.
Yup
Would that matter to the republicans? There were BLM riots in the streets in summer and they just sent police to beat and gas the protesters. Right now they (up to Pompeo and Barr) are keeping up the pretense that there was widespread voter fraud and Trump has actually won. Sorry, the US is not out of it yet, at this point I won't expect Biden to actually become president until I see him sworn in.
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2020, 11:12:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2020, 11:09:16 PM
I'm not surprised to see Fox distancing themselves from Trump. I commented on Chris Wallace being let off the leash a while back.
Now I don't get Fox News, never mind watch it, but I do read too much political coverage.
My understanding is this is part of the ongoing split between the Fox news programming (rightish, but mostly fair, of which Chris Wallace is a part of) and the Fox Primetime opinion programming (Hannity, Carlson, and very, very Trumpy).
I don't get Fox News either, but over the last month I have been watching bits of it on the Internet, where it is available for free. I concour with your understanding. The news does have a left bias (as much as CNN has an obvious right bias), but by and large they report news objectively. Their commentators on the other hand have definately drunk the Kool Aid
I really don't even want to contribute towards giving air to Trump's tantrum nonsense, which in most respects appears to be a way to generate money for a PAC he's forming (his legal fund is not even routing most of its donations to the legal fight but to the general purpose Trump PAC he is building), but the States have a certification process and the electoral college votes on 12/14. If you see any of these lawsuits significantly delay the certification process that is when your ears should perk up.
So far I haven't seen that happening, and many of these lawsuits again, even if they were successful, would not imperil certifying the various state level elections for Biden. There's a hilariously long shot case he's running in PA that could, but there's no evidence it will have even temporary success as of yet. I guess on some level it's worth paying attention to, but the types of cases Trump is filing seem a lot different than the legal campaign Bush waged in 2000, i.e. a serious legal effort to establish the outcome of the election, and much more like theater. That could change, and at that point my commentary would as well.
It's also telling despite retaining three very prominent national firms, the Trump campaign isn't even using them for these efforts, but is instead using niche/small boutique conservative firms that frequently are involved in relatively unimportant election related litigation. That in itself tells a story about the serious of the effort as well.
Quote from: katmai on November 10, 2020, 09:37:40 PM
Estimated 40k votes left to count in Arizona
QuoteTrump is averaging 57.7% Trump needs 66.0%
How's you feeling about that bet Dorsey?
I never bet anyone on Arizona. I just was sort of hoping Trump would win because my girlfriend was annoyed I was still talking about Arizona after the AP called it, and that would demonstrate that I was right that the AP called it too early.
The fact we are still talking about it over a week later I think proves that the call was too early, but at this point I doubt she even remembers that I thought Trump still had a prayer in Arizona on election night despite the AP call.
The real heavy lift to keep in mind for Trump's chances are legally speaking PA had the most shenanigans going on, arguably, and if by some insane miracle the results there were overturned (which I'm not sure I can emphasize enough how unlikely that is), that still leaves Biden with 286. They would have to undermine multiple other states as well to knock Biden out here. Wisconsin is probably their best bet, which still wouldn't be enough. If you look at like, the pre-election legal wrangling over election law, NV / AZ / GA didn't have nearly as much as the midwestern swing states, so are probably much less fertile ground for dispute.
What really makes it a heavy lift for Trump is his margins in some of those states like PA and MI are just so far behind, WI is the closest of all of them but even still would be a heavy lift.
This isn't like FL2000 where Trump is Gore, and Gore needed a longshot success in court in one state, Trump needs even longer shot success in multiple states on multiple different areas of law in which it is highly unlikely even extremely conservative courts will rule his way.
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/K5LLM7SWV5H2FMYEO3YTODV5WQ.jpg&w=916)
Some things to keep in mind with that map:
1. Almost none of this is actually a change from the status quo, take that for what it's worth.
2. In OH there is now a requirement to use a bipartisan commission, for various reasons I don't fully understand, it's never been widely reported on. But there was a statewide referendum that creates a districting commission for both state legislative and U.S. House seats. The commission can be pushed around to a degree by the party that controls the state legislature, but if you look at the text of the implementing law the result in OH will most likely mean less gerrymandered districts. Although it doesn't rise to the level you'd like to see, OH will be improved.
3. PA and NC courts have already quashed existing gerrymanders in those states, and likely will do so again for new gerrymanders that cross lines of reasonability.
4. The independent commission in MI is new and should improve things there.
5. The commission in VA is new, and the previous districting was controlled by the GOP, so things should improve there.
The remaining states I consider to be relatively badly gerrymandered and likely to continue to be so are SC, FL and TX, in terms of states where I think Dems even realistically have good political chances at state and congressional offices. This is, in fact, an improvement from the Dem's positioning after the 2010-era redistricting.
Syt, this is what I was posting about on election night. Not all the House elections have been called, but right now I think Democrats are up in about 222 or 223. You need 218 for a majority--their majority has been slashed to almost nothing.
Based on that map--acknowledging OvB's objections--there were only 13 republican house members in the last election in states the democrats control the redistricting process.
In republican states, there were 56 democrats. If you take out the states that OvB objected to, there are 49.
Plus the republican controlled states are going to get even more seats as reapportionment happens (Texas will get three seats for example).
If we had run the election last week with the district maps we are likely to have in 2022, the Republicans would likely have a comfortable house majority.
I mean the maps in 2022 aren't actually likely to be friendlier to Republicans than they are now. The GOP won several districts this time that are regularly contested because of significant, and historic, turnout in multiple key states. While it's possible such turnout could happen again in a midterm, it's not immediately obvious that would be the case. There's also a number of Republican seats in states like California, New York, and New Jersey that are vulnerable and likely to actually become even more vulnerable after those states redistrict due to the general erosion of Republicans in those states in general.
The big thing to keep in mind is the last like 50 years the GOP has had less election turnout variance than the Democrats, but generally less total vote in high turnout elections. This is because of the Dem coalition having more low propensity voters. What Trump really did in 2020 was pull voters into voting for the first time, these voters "look a lot" like the base voters that won him the primary and the general election in 2016. Assuming these are a permanent fixture of the Republican coalition when Trump's name is not on the ballot is probably questionable logic, given they didn't appear to materialize in 2018. Because a lot of purple districts had a lot of these voters in it, the GOP was able to recapture several purple seats they won in 2018, and protect several GOP House members expected to be vulnerable.
We had the highest turnout in 2020 of any election in like 100 years. Maybe we've entered a new high turnout era in American politics, but I'm not actually sure it's likely at all to expect this.
FWIW a lot of analysts had said this exact thing would happen if turnout went really high. The typical narrative about Dems benefitting from high turnout actually is in the "normal" political cycle, where the GOP has a greater % of high propensity versus low propensity voters, so when more of those voters across the board show up, you get those lower propensity Democrat voters turning out and winning elections for the Dems. What a lot of analysts have pointed out is if you get outside of "low propensity voters", who are still voters, in normal scenarios, there's a significant well of voters in the white working class who culturally lean Republican and in most (non-election based, issues-based) opinion polling, seemed to be likely "pickups" for the Republican coalition if they voted. The issue is these people aren't low propensity voters--they are non voters, most of them aged 40+ who had never registered or cast a ballot in all their years. Not many people seriously thought Trump could get many of them to vote.
He did, and that's the big story of 2020. But are they now part of the voting process forever? I dunno. No one does. Assuming they are is probably a mistake akin to how assuming similar voters that came out for Obama in 2008 (but have never voted again--including this year, even this year Biden didn't see the turnout surge in black zipcodes that Obama did) will now be a permanent part of the voting landscape. One simple way to look at Trump 2020 is he did in rural and small town counties what Obama did in black urban counties in 2008--and as good a politician as Obama was he never was able to replicate that in midterm elections and didn't even fully replicate it in his 2012 reelection (likely because the narrative was he was never in serious risk of losing, so I suspect those voters reactivated at lower levels.)
Interesting thread about Biden policy supporters who voted for Trump: https://twitter.com/dannybarefoot/status/1326210279387099136
OvB: it isn't just about voting. It is also about drawing lines on a map and having 10 years pass.
Take three republican states: Texas, Georgia, and Florida. All gerrymander.
In all 3 states, democrats have picked up a house seat since 2012. The reason is as simple as the creation of small majority republican districts and super majority democratic ones in 2010, to ensure republican leaning delegations. But 10 years later population changes have caused some of those to become democratic.
In redistricting, they should be able to get those 3 seats back. Plus those states are collectively getting 5 new seats because of population growth. If those are created to be republican, that means you have 8 new republican house members from those states. (of course some of the seats in states losing them may be republicans)
The Republicans will probably only need to flip 5 or 6 seats in 2022 to get to a house majority.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 11, 2020, 05:48:51 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 10, 2020, 05:18:45 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 10, 2020, 04:54:13 PM
I feel that would lead to riots in the streets.
Yup
Would that matter to the republicans? There were BLM riots in the streets in summer and they just sent police to beat and gas the protesters. Right now they (up to Pompeo and Barr) are keeping up the pretense that there was widespread voter fraud and Trump has actually won. Sorry, the US is not out of it yet, at this point I won't expect Biden to actually become president until I see him sworn in.
I think it would matter to Republicans. Reversing a national election would result in riots and protests that could bring down the government. It could be an American Maidan
Quote from: Solmyr on November 11, 2020, 10:47:27 AM
Interesting thread about Biden policy supporters who voted for Trump: https://twitter.com/dannybarefoot/status/1326210279387099136
I'm not sure if interesting is the right word.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2020, 11:05:18 AM
OvB: it isn't just about voting. It is also about drawing lines on a map and having 10 years pass.
Take three republican states: Texas, Georgia, and Florida. All gerrymander.
In all 3 states, democrats have picked up a house seat since 2012. The reason is as simple as the creation of small majority republican districts and super majority democratic ones in 2010, to ensure republican leaning delegations. But 10 years later population changes have caused some of those to become democratic.
In redistricting, they should be able to get those 3 seats back. Plus those states are collectively getting 5 new seats because of population growth. If those are created to be republican, that means you have 8 new republican house members from those states. (of course some of the seats in states losing them may be republicans)
The Republicans will probably only need to flip 5 or 6 seats in 2022 to get to a house majority.
TX and GA all have more Democratic voters than in 2010, they already basically used computer software to get the best maps possible in 2012 onward, with more of the enemy, the software is going to fail to produce a map as beneficial as the current map was back in 2012.
Also FYI, I'm anti-gerrymandering but we already had a lot of deep dives on the 2010 gerrymander that showed it maybe determined like +6 total seats for the Republicans. I don't think the GOP majority in that span of time when it had a House majority was ever actually determined by that margin. I think it is more of a negative impact for state legislative balance of power than congressional, Democrat control of the House in 2022 is going to be far more based on the Dems ability to do politics than it is going to be based on district lines. I think crying about gerrymandering (and again--I'm against it), to explain bad performance in House races up until 2018 largely was making excuses for poor Democratic campaigning, messaging, and turnout ops.
I wonder what's going to be the long-term outlook on voting by mail. Just like with WFH, a lot of people who never did it before have done it now, and all the yada-yada about fraud aside, I'm sure most reasonable people saw that it's actually well thought-out.
Would there be pressure in at least some states to make it a permanent fixture? Even if it only happens in blue states, there are still a lot of blue states which are surprisingly backwards when it comes to promoting voter participation.
A few red/reddish states already had fairly well established vote by mail: Ohio, Utah, Florida. It's popular there and it probably helps Republicans most of the time, so will likely stay untouched. In states where it was expanded specifically for covid and where the GOP control the state legislature I would expect it to go back to the status quo and not be expanded at all in the near future.
Interesting polling that the majority of voters (and a majority of Republicans) think Trump lost the election.
It feels like all of this rigamarole is just public therapy for Trump to eventual say "I don't accept that I lost, but I concede".
I've seen people saying they think in part it is also to gee-up the base ahead of the Georgia run-offs, but I'm not sure if that works. It feels to me like: "your votes don't count because the Democrats will, inevitably, cheat their way to victory" is not necssarily a message that would boost base turnout :hmm:
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2020, 11:24:01 AM
TX and GA all have more Democratic voters than in 2010, they already basically used computer software to get the best maps possible in 2012 onward, with more of the enemy, the software is going to fail to produce a map as beneficial as the current map was back in 2012.
To hone in on Georgia, which I know the most about :), the presidential election results by year:
2008: R +5
2012: R +7
2016: R +5
2020: D +0
So maybe it swung 5 points democratic, and that meant the map drawn post 2010 designed to give republicans 9 house seats and democrats 5 is untenable, and 8 to 6 (the current split) is the best the republicans can do.
HOWEVER, the swings at the district level have been massive. My district is the one that has flipped. I don't have 2020 data, but these are the swings in my district:
2008: R +25
2012: R +23
2016: R +1
2020: D +10 (I'm using house results because I can't quickly find presidential results for the district)
That is a 35 point swing in a single district. I doubt that was projected by a computer model in 2010--I'm sure the district mappers assumed this would be a safe republican district through 2020. The further out you get from redistricting the less effective a gerrymander is going to be. The 35 point swing to the democrats in this district is offset by swings to republicans in other districts--I don't see why a 2020 redistricting can't account for these changes and move georgia back to a 9-5 congressional delegation.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 12:28:30 PM
Interesting polling that the majority of voters (and a majority of Republicans) think Trump lost the election.
It feels like all of this rigamarole is just public therapy for Trump to eventual say "I don't accept that I lost, but I concede".
I've seen people saying they think in part it is also to gee-up the base ahead of the Georgia run-offs, but I'm not sure if that works. It feels to me like: "your votes don't count because the Democrats will, inevitably, cheat their way to victory" is not necssarily a message that would boost base turnout :hmm:
I think that is correct. But I think it demonstrates how much Republicans still fear him and his base even after he lost.
Grumbler, I am interested on your assessment about whether you still think Trumpism will die off after a couple of election cycles after seeing this.
Trumpism will die off with Donald J Trump.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 11, 2020, 12:42:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 12:28:30 PM
Interesting polling that the majority of voters (and a majority of Republicans) think Trump lost the election.
It feels like all of this rigamarole is just public therapy for Trump to eventual say "I don't accept that I lost, but I concede".
I've seen people saying they think in part it is also to gee-up the base ahead of the Georgia run-offs, but I'm not sure if that works. It feels to me like: "your votes don't count because the Democrats will, inevitably, cheat their way to victory" is not necssarily a message that would boost base turnout :hmm:
I think that is correct. But I think it demonstrates how much Republicans still fear him and his base even after he lost.
Grumbler, I am interested on your assessment about whether you still think Trumpism will die off after a couple of election cycles after seeing this.
I'd say it reinforces my argument. Trumpism is also, in large part, a cult of personality built around the story of an ultra-successful businessman (and start of a TV show built around his own story of his own genius). That story is going to take some major hits over the next year or so. Remember him bragging on the campaign trail that he made $164 million (or some such number) in 2015, when in fact his tax records show he claimed a loss? All that kind of stuff is going to come out now that he no longer has a captive Treasury and Justice Department to nix all investigations into his financial and tax scams. Once that L gets branded onto his forehead, his losses will start to come to light. The truth is that Donald Trump is a schmuck, and the truth will come out when he can no longer use the US government to hide it.
Isn't part of his being worshipped as a winner by losers that despite his incompetence and repeated failures he still makes it?
The Deep State took his money from him, the poor little genius strongman victim. There, narrative.
Quote from: Tyr on November 11, 2020, 02:16:46 PM
Isn't part of his being worshipped as a winner by losers that despite his incompetence and repeated failures he still makes it?
I think that those who worship his genius blow off the repeated asshattery, divorces, child porn, and bankruptcies as 5-D chess that just further proves his genius.
Quote from: grumbler on November 11, 2020, 02:04:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 11, 2020, 12:42:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 12:28:30 PM
Interesting polling that the majority of voters (and a majority of Republicans) think Trump lost the election.
It feels like all of this rigamarole is just public therapy for Trump to eventual say "I don't accept that I lost, but I concede".
I've seen people saying they think in part it is also to gee-up the base ahead of the Georgia run-offs, but I'm not sure if that works. It feels to me like: "your votes don't count because the Democrats will, inevitably, cheat their way to victory" is not necssarily a message that would boost base turnout :hmm:
I think that is correct. But I think it demonstrates how much Republicans still fear him and his base even after he lost.
Grumbler, I am interested on your assessment about whether you still think Trumpism will die off after a couple of election cycles after seeing this.
I'd say it reinforces my argument. Trumpism is also, in large part, a cult of personality built around the story of an ultra-successful businessman (and start of a TV show built around his own story of his own genius). That story is going to take some major hits over the next year or so. Remember him bragging on the campaign trail that he made $164 million (or some such number) in 2015, when in fact his tax records show he claimed a loss? All that kind of stuff is going to come out now that he no longer has a captive Treasury and Justice Department to nix all investigations into his financial and tax scams. Once that L gets branded onto his forehead, his losses will start to come to light. The truth is that Donald Trump is a schmuck, and the truth will come out when he can no longer use the US government to hide it.
That is reassuring. Thanks.
Quote from: Tyr on November 11, 2020, 02:16:46 PM
Isn't part of his being worshipped as a winner by losers that despite his incompetence and repeated failures he still makes it?
I don't see a single bit of evidence that Trumpists see him as incompetent in any way.
Quote from: grumbler on November 11, 2020, 02:04:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 11, 2020, 12:42:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 12:28:30 PM
Interesting polling that the majority of voters (and a majority of Republicans) think Trump lost the election.
It feels like all of this rigamarole is just public therapy for Trump to eventual say "I don't accept that I lost, but I concede".
I've seen people saying they think in part it is also to gee-up the base ahead of the Georgia run-offs, but I'm not sure if that works. It feels to me like: "your votes don't count because the Democrats will, inevitably, cheat their way to victory" is not necssarily a message that would boost base turnout :hmm:
I think that is correct. But I think it demonstrates how much Republicans still fear him and his base even after he lost.
Grumbler, I am interested on your assessment about whether you still think Trumpism will die off after a couple of election cycles after seeing this.
I'd say it reinforces my argument. Trumpism is also, in large part, a cult of personality built around the story of an ultra-successful businessman (and start of a TV show built around his own story of his own genius). That story is going to take some major hits over the next year or so. Remember him bragging on the campaign trail that he made $164 million (or some such number) in 2015, when in fact his tax records show he claimed a loss? All that kind of stuff is going to come out now that he no longer has a captive Treasury and Justice Department to nix all investigations into his financial and tax scams. Once that L gets branded onto his forehead, his losses will start to come to light. The truth is that Donald Trump is a schmuck, and the truth will come out when he can no longer use the US government to hide it.
I hope this is true, but I worry that those who are in the Trump cult may simply be impervious to unpleasant facts about their leader. They are used to writing off all such as "fake news" created by the "deep state".
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
His handlers made more money by taking a cut when managing his money than by simply taking all his lunch money immediately. The guy doesn't understand how an umbrella works. He's denser than plutonium.
Quote from: The Brain on November 11, 2020, 03:24:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
His handlers made more money by taking a cut when managing his money than by simply taking all his lunch money immediately. The guy doesn't understand how an umbrella works. He's denser than plutonium.
And yes messerschmitts, his handlers are prettty stupid too apparently...
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
NYT said he got over 400 million from dad. A lot less impressive given that he has had 40 years to make that into 2 billion.
Quote from: PDH on November 11, 2020, 03:34:56 PM
NYT said he got over 400 million from dad. A lot less impressive given that he has had 40 years to make that into 2 billion.
Agree, that's a lot less impressive. Getting into unimpressive territory.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
Pretty sure he got way more than $100 mil from 'ole Fred Trump...
Quote from: Barrister on November 11, 2020, 03:37:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
Pretty sure he got way more than $100 mil from 'ole Fred Trump...
A crippled, deeply disturbed personality?
I think some of the money was transferred in a different way to avoid tax - I think the NYT did an investigation on this.
Also - and I can't remember where I read this - but I swear he doesn't like buying or holding shares (except, presumably, in his own companies). I swear I've read somewhere that in all of the information about his finances he just doesn't really seem to own many which is weird for rich person behaviour.
Any business achievements of his pale into nothingness compared to his political achievement: he became President of the United States. Many people with quite serious credentials have tried and failed, he succeeded. Did he succeed because he is a skilled politician? My impression is that no, he was simply the wrong guy at the wrong time. "You can't argue with success" is a valid argument and deserves thoughtful consideration, but taken too far it makes you worship lottery winners.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 03:40:05 PM
I think some of the money was transferred in a different way to avoid tax - I think the NYT did an investigation on this.
Also - and I can't remember where I read this - but I swear he doesn't like buying or holding shares (except, presumably, in his own companies). I swear I've read somewhere that in all of the information about his finances he just doesn't really seem to own many which is weird for rich person behaviour.
Trump does not own a lot when you consider what he owes on what he "owns" and how much he is losing on most of his assets. It's questionable how much he is in the black, wealth-wise and while he is above water he might not even be a billionaire. His biggest single asset (according to his own accounting) is his name, and that's going to take a plunge in value as the truth comes out.
So legislators have to seat electors of the winner of the popular vote in their state, right? :mellow:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1326635693825617920?s=20
John Roberts (not that one) on Fox News: "The anger out there in these red states is so deep and palpable that GOP legislators may have a difficult time seating Biden electors."
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
I think we have to be careful not to overcook the incompetent businessman narrative. He got something like 100 mill from his pop and turned it into something like 2 and a half billion. Sleazy, tacky, unscrupulous, dishonest, etc., etc., but not completely incompetent.
Maybe i misremember, but wasn't it a thing that if he had just put the money his dad left him in some mutual funds he'd be richer now?
Quote from: HVC on November 11, 2020, 04:53:55 PM
Maybe i misremember, but wasn't it a thing that if he had just put the money his dad left him in some mutual funds he'd be richer now?
If you want to earn points for rebuttals you need to stop operating on Portagee time Hillary. :contract:
Breaking news! A MONSTER block of 8 votes just broke 5/3 for Trump! He only needs 124% of outstanding ballots to reclaim his rightful electoral votes!
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 05:04:32 PM
Quote from: HVC on November 11, 2020, 04:53:55 PM
Maybe i misremember, but wasn't it a thing that if he had just put the money his dad left him in some mutual funds he'd be richer now?
If you want to earn points for rebuttals you need to stop operating on Portagee time Hillary. :contract:
Breaking news! A MONSTER block of 8 votes just broke 5/3 for Trump! He only needs 124% of outstanding ballots to reclaim his rightful electoral votes!
its been a long day at work, but i wanted to contribute to the trump bashing :( :D
Trump is far from the success he makes himself out to be and yet also not the business black hole disaster his detractors claim.
His core business as a commercial property developer has been run very similar to the standard NY family real estate company model - basically build-build-build and cash in while the market booms and leave the banks holding the bag during the bust. He's done Ok by that model, managing to hold on to the core Trump Tower property even while losing equity in others. He also did quite well selling his name on licensing deals that gave him modest but steady income for no risk.
With one huge exception, his non commercial RE investments have been pretty dire, in particular the casinos were disasters and the golf courses seem to be following that example. The one huge exception is the Apprentice TV show, which was a big money maker for him.
While it may be true that a good money manager would have given an equivalent return for no work, I don't think he should be criticized for trying to work for a living and matching the market return is far from failure.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2020, 04:49:58 PM
So legislators have to seat electors of the winner of the popular vote in their state, right? :mellow:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1326635693825617920?s=20
John Roberts (not that one) on Fox News: "The anger out there in these red states is so deep and palpable that GOP legislators may have a difficult time seating Biden electors."
The anger would be a lot more palpable if state legislatures ignore the actual votes.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 11, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Trump is far from the success he makes himself out to be and yet also not the business black hole disaster his detractors claim.
His core business as a commercial property developer has been run very similar to the standard NY family real estate company model - basically build-build-build and cash in while the market booms and leave the banks holding the bag during the bust. He's done Ok by that model, managing to hold on to the core Trump Tower property even while losing equity in others. He also did quite well selling his name on licensing deals that gave him modest but steady income for no risk.
With one huge exception, his non commercial RE investments have been pretty dire, in particular the casinos were disasters and the golf courses seem to be following that example. The one huge exception is the Apprentice TV show, which was a big money maker for him.
While it may be true that a good money manager would have given an equivalent return for no work, I don't think he should be criticized for trying to work for a living and matching the market return is far from failure.
I seem to recall that it was the Apprentice that set him up to make the lucrative licensing deals. Basically without that TV show he would have gone under from his bad casino deals.
A good size block in AZ broke mas o menos even; Trump needs 68.3% of 35,599 remaining, has been breaking 56% Trump.
QuoteThat is a 35 point swing in a single district. I doubt that was projected by a computer model in 2010--I'm sure the district mappers assumed this would be a safe republican district through 2020. The further out you get from redistricting the less effective a gerrymander is going to be. The 35 point swing to the democrats in this district is offset by swings to republicans in other districts--I don't see why a 2020 redistricting can't account for these changes and move georgia back to a 9-5 congressional delegation.
Mainly because the more Democrats there are the harder it is to do this, it's not actually that complicated.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 11, 2020, 05:33:45 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 11, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Trump is far from the success he makes himself out to be and yet also not the business black hole disaster his detractors claim.
His core business as a commercial property developer has been run very similar to the standard NY family real estate company model - basically build-build-build and cash in while the market booms and leave the banks holding the bag during the bust. He's done Ok by that model, managing to hold on to the core Trump Tower property even while losing equity in others. He also did quite well selling his name on licensing deals that gave him modest but steady income for no risk.
With one huge exception, his non commercial RE investments have been pretty dire, in particular the casinos were disasters and the golf courses seem to be following that example. The one huge exception is the Apprentice TV show, which was a big money maker for him.
While it may be true that a good money manager would have given an equivalent return for no work, I don't think he should be criticized for trying to work for a living and matching the market return is far from failure.
I seem to recall that it was the Apprentice that set him up to make the lucrative licensing deals. Basically without that TV show he would have gone under from his bad casino deals.
NYT has a radio show on NPR and they had the reporter who was digging into Trump's finances on a couple of weeks or so back. He basically said what you are saying, though it was the Trump name recognition that got him the The Apprentice deal. His TV appearances then went on to increase his name recognition.
As a celebrity, Trump has been quite successful. As a businessman, not so much. Despite this, his own claims are that he is a brilliant businessman and only incidentally a celebrity, and that's what his followers seem to believe.
Time to jump on the Trump Shuttle to go to the Trump Plaza Hotel and buy some Trump Steaks.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 06:24:37 PM
A good size block in AZ broke mas o menos even; Trump needs 68.3% of 35,599 remaining, has been breaking 56% Trump.
Biden might actually be able to win even if it is a small margin.
Another good thing about Biden winning is that the Bernie Bros can't say "I told you so".
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
QuoteThat is a 35 point swing in a single district. I doubt that was projected by a computer model in 2010--I'm sure the district mappers assumed this would be a safe republican district through 2020. The further out you get from redistricting the less effective a gerrymander is going to be. The 35 point swing to the democrats in this district is offset by swings to republicans in other districts--I don't see why a 2020 redistricting can't account for these changes and move georgia back to a 9-5 congressional delegation.
Mainly because the more Democrats there are the harder it is to do this, it's not actually that complicated.
You don't need a computer program to figure out how to flip #6 back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_congressional_districts
It is straightforward. 4, 5, and 13 are all safe D. Just cut off the southern more democratic parts of 6 and add to those. 6 can take R territory from 7 and 11, which can make up their territory with the most R territory in the state (9 and 14).
Congressmen are politically connected and don't want their districts radically overhauled (especially to endanger their own reelection), but if you wanted to get really radical I don't see why you couldn't draw a map that was 10 R and 4 D.
Now that the USSC has given a green light to basically do whatever the states want, they may go for it.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:57 PM
Another good thing about Biden winning is that the Bernie Bros can't say "I told you so".
:yes:
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:57 PM
Another good thing about Biden winning is that the Bernie Bros can't say "I told you so".
It is pretty sweet justice to see Biden win, no matter how closely, vs. the assured loss of Bernie in the same environment.
We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 06:24:37 PM
A good size block in AZ broke mas o menos even; Trump needs 68.3% of 35,599 remaining, has been breaking 56% Trump.
Biden might actually be able to win even if it is a small margin.
Yeah it looks like it'll be called for Biden soon. It's over.
From Goldwater to Biden. Amazing.
I think Goldwater would have voted for Biden.
Arizona
Quote11,635 vote lead for Biden
22,456 ballots left
It looks like Biden will just barely win.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 12, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
It looks like Biden will just barely win.
A win is a win.
Better a narrow win than a decisive loss. A decisive win is better than either, though.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 12, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
It looks like Biden will just barely win.
In Arizona.
He did about as well as I predicted:
(https://i.imgur.com/Glh5OKz.jpg)
I missed on Florida, Georgia, and Arizona (probably...).
I was only off by two EVs.
(https://preview.redd.it/p0z5srsw7py51.png?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=c0e7a8542d8b667d2916f91620ddfa5ef14878f3)
Is this true? :unsure:
Did Iowa's turnout go down? :hmm:
Apparently not. :hmm:
https://www.kcrg.com/2020/11/04/iowa-shatters-voter-turnout-record-for-general-election/
Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2020, 08:30:16 PM
We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
Bernie is nothing like Corbyn in reality. They just seem like they should be similar.
I actually think Bernie is possibly the only other of the Dem candidates who could have won - looking at the election. I can see him having a chance at winning back the blue wall states - which I just can't see for Pete, Warren etc.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 04:49:56 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2020, 08:30:16 PM
We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
Bernie is nothing like Corbyn in reality. They just seem like they should be similar.
I actually think Bernie is possibly the only other of the Dem candidates who could have won - looking at the election. I can see him having a chance at winning back the blue wall states - which I just can't see for Pete, Warren etc.
Yeah, he'd have a good chance of winning back the rust belt+PA, possibly make OH a bit more competitive. Does he keep all of NM/NV/CO, though?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmfjOUDXEAY0CuH?format=jpg&name=small)
An interesting piece from the Brookings Institute :
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/
In a nutshell, the counties that Biden won comprise 70% of the USA's economy, Trump's counties only 30% :hmm:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 12, 2020, 06:07:10 AM
An interesting piece from the Brookings Institute :
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/
In a nutshell, the counties that Biden won comprise 70% of the USA's economy, Trump's counties only 30% :hmm:
Interesting way to break things down. Wonder how that would look in other elections.
Though I suppose it works particularly well in the US with the vast distances involved so you won't get many down at heel towns that supply the workers to the big city.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 12, 2020, 06:07:10 AM
An interesting piece from the Brookings Institute :
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/
In a nutshell, the counties that Biden won comprise 70% of the USA's economy, Trump's counties only 30% :hmm:
Interesting. I guess it should check out, poverty and insecurity breeds ignorance and anxieties, which in turn make one more prone to be afraid and hateful towards others.
It is something I even noticed when moving to Britain. A much more stable (pre-Brexit) and prosperous country, on the grand average, everything is/was super chill compared to Hungary, form everyday interactions to things like commercial and bureaucratic processes. These kind of feed off each other of course, but I do suspect that the less uncertainty you have about your future, the more chilled you are and on a societal scale that can show, in a big way.
One of the bits of evidence submitted by the Trump campaign is that a poll-watcher saw members of the military vote for Biden, which they found suspicious :lol:
I feel like he might not have much of a case.
Quote from: Tamas on November 12, 2020, 06:58:31 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 12, 2020, 06:07:10 AM
An interesting piece from the Brookings Institute :
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/ (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/)
In a nutshell, the counties that Biden won comprise 70% of the USA's economy, Trump's counties only 30% :hmm:
Interesting. I guess it should check out, poverty and insecurity breeds ignorance and anxieties, which in turn make one more prone to be afraid and hateful towards others.
It is something I even noticed when moving to Britain. A much more stable (pre-Brexit) and prosperous country, on the grand average, everything is/was super chill compared to Hungary, form everyday interactions to things like commercial and bureaucratic processes. These kind of feed off each other of course, but I do suspect that the less uncertainty you have about your future, the more chilled you are and on a societal scale that can show, in a big way.
Part of it is the urban/rural divide. People in cities and the suburbs around cities make more money than people who live in rural areas or small town. The cost of living is lower in rural and small towns so you wouldn't necessarily call these areas poor. People who move to my hometown are surprised how cheap everything is particularly real estate.
There is of course real poverty. The county I'm in is fairly affluent by Missouri standard, but if you drive 30 miles south you start to see a major decline in wealth. You go 100 miles south it's pretty dire.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 07:08:57 AM
One of the bits of evidence submitted by the Trump campaign is that a poll-watcher saw members of the military vote for Biden, which they found suspicious :lol:
I feel like he might not have much of a case.
I am extremely disappointed in Trump's legal strategy. I assumed that the case would quickly reach the Supreme Court. Instead his legal strategy is almost invisible.
I think it's just posturing.
Quote from: Caliga on November 12, 2020, 08:51:03 AM
I think it's just posturing.
Absolutely, I just wish Trump's coping therapy didn't involve undermining trust in elections and American democracy.
Ok, so a normal person would have done the honorable thing and conceded already, because they would care about the democratic process.
Trump, as everyone knows, cares about nobody and nothing but himself, so he's doing this (even though I'm quite sure he knows he's lost) to keep his base inflamed, the better to exploit them later by getting them to sign up for Trump TV or whatever he'll need to keep himself from going insolvent once he leaves office.
I don't think even think it's that. I think it's that he is so pathologically insecure and needy that he can't accept that he lost. So he must have been cheated and is building up that narrative to reach a point where he can not accept that it was a fair election but concede.
Yeah, I think his puerile insecurity is driving this and his temper tantrums. There is no master plan. I think the people around him are definitely taking advantage of this moment as much as possible though.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
I don't think even think it's that. I think it's that he is so pathologically insecure and needy that he can't accept that he lost. So he must have been cheated and is building up that narrative to reach a point where he can not accept that it was a fair election but concede.
I dunno, it's hard for me to believe almost a week on he still doesn't realize he lost or won't accept it. Remember, this guy is a con artist and has been running cons his entire career. He's got mental problems for sure, but I don't think he's actually insane.
Quote from: Caliga on November 12, 2020, 09:24:41 AM
I dunno, it's hard for me to believe almost a week on he still doesn't realize he lost or won't accept it. Remember, this guy is a con artist and has been running cons his entire career. He's got mental problems for sure, but I don't think he's actually insane.
I don't think he's insane or stupid - I think he's aware he's lost. But he is incapable of being a loser or weak.
This is a guy who's stiffed people on every project he's had, he's apparently threatened or started around 3,000 lawsuits (often directed at people who don't have the money to fight him). He cannot acknowledge when he loses or when he fails - instead he's been cheated or he's been a victim in some way. You'd be an idiot or an easy mark (like Obama and Clinton) if you conceded defeat without trying as many legal challenges as possible or trying to gum up the system.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 09:30:43 AM
I don't think he's insane or stupid - I think he's aware he's lost. But he is incapable of being a loser or weak.
This is a guy who's stiffed people on every project he's had, he's apparently threatened or started around 3,000 lawsuits (often directed at people who don't have the money to fight him). He cannot acknowledge when he loses or when he fails - instead he's been cheated or he's been a victim in some way. You'd be an idiot or an easy mark (like Obama and Clinton) if you conceded defeat without trying as many legal challenges as possible or trying to gum up the system.
I think we're in full agreement. :)
And this is what tens of millions of people in the US and elsewhere believe in :(
Quote from: Tyr on November 12, 2020, 09:40:34 AM
And this is what tens of millions of people in the US and elsewhere believe in :(
I think a chunk of them believe the con which is the sort of concerning bit :(
I think only a tiny minority of Trump supporters genuinely believe the cheating narrative. A larger percentage of them practice the self-convincing and denial which has allowed them to stick with Trump - they don't believe it but they deliberately don't pause to think about it.
The rest, I suspect, know full well its a silly excuse, but they play along because it is the way to defeat the other tribe, and nothing else matters at this stage.
My TDS was so strong that I expected this to be an actual concerted effort to undermine democracy & keep the Trump administration in power past January.
Instead it's just grifters grifting the head grifter(s). Fucking Conservative.
A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?
Just thinking with Trump already talking about a 2024 run, if you're a possible Presidential candidate you've probably spent the last four years trying to work with/praise Trump to avoid pissing off his base. Either he'd win or he'd move on and the politics of supporting Trump make sense because it could help your run in 2024/not piss off his base.
If you've got 2024 ambitions and you think you might have to beat Trump to do it, the politics sort of shift and you don't really get any upside from supporting Trump you're just boosting a rival.
No idea if it will lead to anything but I feel like it's a different calculation for, say, Rubio or Cruz or even loyalists like Hawley and Cotton than before this election.
Much as I wish more Republicans had backbone to stand up to Trump there wasn't much benefit for them politically if they did it (again I think McConnell on a purely political level possibly played this all very well). But now there are political benefits to confronting Trump because chances are a 2024 nomination is going to go through, not with, him (and he'll pull this stuff if he loses those primaries and create chaos at the convention).
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 10:18:50 AM
A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?
:lol:
No, the primary system makes this impossible.
Quote from: Tamas on November 12, 2020, 09:49:34 AM
I think only a tiny minority of Trump supporters genuinely believe the cheating narrative. A larger percentage of them practice the self-convincing and denial which has allowed them to stick with Trump - they don't believe it but they deliberately don't pause to think about it.
The rest, I suspect, know full well its a silly excuse, but they play along because it is the way to defeat the other tribe, and nothing else matters at this stage.
I'm a bit confused. Do Trump supporters stop being Trump supporters if they accept the results or is that just something that has never happened?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 10:18:50 AM
A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?
What does this mean? The president is generally the de facto leader of the party, but with Trump toppled it is presumably Mitch McConnell. Trump is just an out of work president like George W. Bush, only he didn't win re-election.
I think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however. Cruz and Rubio were Lyin' Ted and 'Lil Marco to Trump 4 years ago, but now are dedicated Trumpists. The republicans went into the 2020 elections as the incumbent party with massive unemployment, a terrible economy, unrest in major cities, a president that had just been impeached, and 2020 generally accepted as an annus horribilis. They came out of the elections with a senate majority and a bunch more house seats (maybe even a majority after 2022 redistricting), 27 governors, and more state legislatures. They also appear to have made real inroads with minorities for the first time since civil rights. Romneyism is dead.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2020, 10:43:51 AM
I think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however.
How can that be when Trump lost? :huh:
For sure the Republicans did really well overall, though... better than they should have by all conventional parameters, as you stated.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2020, 10:43:51 AM
What does this mean? The president is generally the de facto leader of the party, but with Trump toppled it is presumably Mitch McConnell. Trump is just an out of work president like George W. Bush, only he didn't win re-election.
W couldn't run again and H.W. or Carter didn't leave office with a fairly big, loyal fanbase. So to win the nomination in 2024 they might have to beat Trump. Because he's lost this election and there's a reasonable chance he'll run again. If he won again then the smart choice is to stay loyal to Trump and try to pick up a big chunk of his vote.
But if he's the competition again you've got two choices: either you try and compete with him for his vote or you try and win the rest.
It seems unlikely to me that anyone will be able to compete with Trump for his core vote (and he'll be the favourite for 2024 nomination all the way through until 2023 because of recognition, loyalty etc etc). So that leaves you winning the rest and the way to do that is going to be to draw contrast between yourself and Trump (and the others).
QuoteI think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however. Cruz and Rubio were Lyin' Ted and 'Lil Marco to Trump 4 years ago, but now are dedicated Trumpists. The republicans went into the 2020 elections as the incumbent party with massive unemployment, a terrible economy, unrest in major cities, a president that had just been impeached, and 2020 generally accepted as an annus horribilis. They came out of the elections with a senate majority and a bunch more house seats (maybe even a majority after 2022 redistricting), 27 governors, and more state legislatures. They also appear to have made real inroads with minorities for the first time since civil rights. Romneyism is dead.
I don't disagree with any of that except I don't think Rubio and Cruz are dedicated Trumpists; I think they made a calculation that it was in their interests to act like dedicated Trumpists. They were probably correct - again, what's the upside of opposing him when he's in office? And, if he's re-elected you can try and pick up his base in 2024.
My thought is that the calculation changes if you might have to beat Trump in 2024 to win. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see this start to play out in 2022 - I think you could see the Trump wing of the party primarying RINOs who weren't loyal/vocal enough now and pushback against that.
QuoteFor sure the Republicans did really well overall, though... better than they should have by all conventional parameters, as you stated.
Maybe - I'd put a huge caveat around the economy because this isn't the 2008 crash. I don't think the raw numbers matter because people live in the world and they're not stupid. They know there's a pandemic, they know why the economy's in trouble and they think it will recover once the pandemic's over.
It's not that there are fundamental issues which are being unwound. And the consequence of the government support (plus fewer opportunities to spend money) is that for a significant number of people they actually have more savings now than they did at the start of the pandemic. I'd be astonished if voters blamed Trump/GOP for the economy and I imagine, probably, generally give them credit because of the general trend of the last four years, despite the impact of the pandemic.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 11:05:55 AM
I don't disagree with any of that except I don't think Rubio and Cruz are dedicated Trumpists; I think they made a calculation that it was in their interests to act like dedicated Trumpists. They were probably correct - again, what's the upside of opposing him when he's in office?
Rubio and Cruz are probably career politicians focused on nothing other than keeping their jobs, getting on TV, and getting into the white house.
My point really is that I doubt either of them is going back to the days of running on a 5% reduction in the top marginal individual tax rate, lower corporate taxes, and the conventional foreign policy / defense that was the republican standard before 2016. They are going to be populists in 2024, and if Trump runs they will try to beat Trump with their own brand of Trumpism. The pitch will probably be that Trump is an actual anchor to the Trumpist movement America wants.
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2020, 11:13:24 AM
My point really is that I doubt either of them is going back to the days of running on a 5% reduction in the top marginal individual tax rate, lower corporate taxes, and the conventional foreign policy / defense that was the republican standard before 2016. They are going to be populists in 2024, and if Trump runs they will try to beat Trump with their own brand of Trumpism. The pitch will probably be that Trump is an actual anchor to the Trumpist movement America wants.
Yeah I mean I think Romney represented the highpoint of a Republican party where it was always 1986. It's been out of date for a long time and it's, rightly, dead now.
They will definitely need their own brand of Trumpism because you can't out-Trump Trump, and people aren't going to vote for the knock-off when they can go for the original. But they will need to draw contrasts with Trump, they will need divisions with him, proper attack lines (because he'll be doing all of that to them) if they want to have a chance to win.
I still think that a lot in GOP are waiting for a moment of weakness to denounce Trump and create a Clean Wehrmacht myth. I think they're just waiting for Trump to be out of power, and have his popularity eroded. I imagine that a lot of his supporters may stop debasing themselves once there is nothing to get out of that bargain.
Well the nice thing about Trumpism for them is it allows them to discard conservative constitutional and fiscal policies which were always a big annoyance. They can go all in on culture war and cultural conservatism and identity politics which is a much easier seller.
So unless they were much more committed to those old conservative principles than I think they were, I don't see any need to discard Trumpism. Now they even get a stabbed in the back myth to help energize the identity politics and culture war base.
Quote from: DGuller on November 12, 2020, 11:24:02 AM
I still think that a lot in GOP are waiting for a moment of weakness to denounce Trump and create a Clean Wehrmacht myth. I think they're just waiting for Trump to be out of power, and have his popularity eroded. I imagine that a lot of his supporters may stop debasing themselves once there is nothing to get out of that bargain.
Remember how 4 years ago Trump was inaugurated and the crowd was sparse, but Trump claimed it was record breaking and that was a controversy for some reason? (how naive we were) I bet if he got reelected it really would be record breaking, even with the pandemic. People really do love him; I have no idea why.
But in 2024, Trump will be 78 and have who knows how many legal problems. He might be even be dead. It is a long way off.
From the GOP perspective Trumpism (for lack of a better word) is good. Trumpism works.
Quote from: The Brain on November 12, 2020, 11:33:14 AM
From the GOP perspective Trumpism (for lack of a better word) is good. Trumpism works.
It does and it solves a lot of problems they had.
My guess is that many Republicans are relieved that they no longer need to pretend. They can finally be openly anti-American.
Vision meme-
The Brain: Maybe I am a Republican?
JUAN
:lol:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 12, 2020, 08:44:50 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 07:08:57 AM
One of the bits of evidence submitted by the Trump campaign is that a poll-watcher saw members of the military vote for Biden, which they found suspicious :lol:
I feel like he might not have much of a case.
I am extremely disappointed in Trump's legal strategy. I assumed that the case would quickly reach the Supreme Court. Instead his legal strategy is almost invisible.
He has only one case that is properly postured to get to the Supreme Court and that one would not effect the results in any state.
He's going after the popular vote as well, because, why not :lol:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
"REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN." @ChanelRion @OANN
Well he always said there were 3.5 million fraudulent votes in 2016 and that he won the popular vote then too.
The Dominion is involved! :o
(https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/startrek/images/a/a7/Weyoun_8.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140307224824)
:lol:
Obviously it's nonsense but I do wonder if anyone, during the development of this electronic voting software, asked if maybe they should use a less foreboding name than "Dominion" :mellow:
It reminds me of the fact that the UK has, since the 60s, operated a military satellite network called Skynet and it consistently refuses to change the name because of - you know - the connotations. So every few years the Defence Secretary announces that they are launching a new version of Skynet and the internet loses its mind.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 01:50:53 PM
:lol:
Obviously it's nonsense but I do wonder if anyone, during the development of this electronic voting software, asked if maybe they should use a less foreboding name than "Dominion" :mellow:
Is it worse than "DIEBOLD"? :P
Quote from: Syt on November 12, 2020, 02:04:54 PM
Is it worse than "DIEBOLD"? :P
Dominion, Diebold and Palantir meet up:
(https://external-preview.redd.it/VWrPDpnn3haOGX28MF2r9AhR6YS6Qf43FigkkGawWxM.gif?format=png8&s=905d94a24b94ccd99deb4fde02a4530fb0262912)
Our voting platform is called MAE (initials for "Electronically-Administered Voting Place") :(
That's why we're no longer an empire.
Romneyism I think is definitely dead--it's a brand of politics that basically can only appeal to a minority of voters. Trumpism has more legs because it can actually appeal to the working class. But how effectively it can do so over time is the question. I see a lot of perpetually panicked liberals and a lot of perpetually overconfident Republicans who seem to think 2020 represents an eternal norm. When I can point to like 5 examples from the past 10 years where people have acted this way before only to see the new eternal norm upset the very next election.
The core issue the GOP will always have that will hurt it trying to become the equivalent of some of the other far right, working class nationalist parties around the globe, is that it also has tremendous racial resentment, and in a few election cycles most of the actual working class, working age people in America won't be that likely to be comfortable in a white grievance political party. Trump has shown that right wing nationalist rhetoric works on minorities too, albeit at very low rates--Trump improved from abysmal performance with minorities and demonstrated you could improve, he also likely improved with very specific minority groups which may not be amazingly representative outside of a couple states. There's a lot to unpack with this election by the way, I find it kind of funny how many people actually think we have enough data to make ironclad pronouncements about it.
I do think the one thing we can say, however the data ultimately comes out--is the Dems do not want to become like British Labour or similar parties. You don't want to be the party of the educated and cultural elite, because that coalition is almost never going to represent 50%+1 of any country. Appealing to working class voters used to be pretty bread and butter for Democrats, and it's looking like they are going to struggle with that. The Dems were likely saved by America's diversity this election because the same playbook that has worked for working class right wing nationalist/populist parties elsewhere gets short circuited a little bit when the working class is so racially diverse and your message is only appealing to one racial group.
The biggest problem I see has nothing to do with most of the issues usually raised, which is generally a focus on big city far left Dems being too annoying for the white working class to vote for (the Dems have always had people like that in the party and used to clean up with working class whites), I think the simpler reality is Dems don't campaign well to the working class. If you actually look at any successful campaign anywhere that has had mass appeal to the working class, it's been a campaign focused on simple, broad issues, effective slogans repeated endlessly, typically a refusal to engage in nuance, and generally you need to give them an enemy to target. The Dems used to unabashedly campaign against corporate masters and greedy rich people, but it's hard now that the Dems have such a large percentage of the cultural and economic elite in their party because those people abhor campaigns like that.
FWIW as the ex-Republican "outsider" in a lot of Dem groups I talk to, I've pointed to the Brexit campaign as a pretty perfect example of how Democrat style campaigning loses to Republican style campaigning. The more you focus on deep dives into issues and details, and the more the other side makes simple but powerful promises and refuses to acknowledge nuance, the more you struggle with working class voters.
Nuance is what loses you elections, at least if there's lots of lower information and lower propensity voters voting, and in most elections in America those are a majority of voters.
FDR was a wealthy patrician from an old established family, but he used to say stuff like this:
QuoteWe had to struggle with the old enemies of peace—business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering.
They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.
Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.
I should like to have it said of my first Administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second Administration that in it these forces met their master.
The American people know from a four-year record that today there is only one entrance to the White House—by the front door. Since March 4, 1933, there has been only one pass-key to the White House. I have carried that key in my pocket. It is there tonight. So long as I am President, it will remain in my pocket.
Those who used to have pass-keys are not happy. Some of them are desperate. Only desperate men with their backs to the wall would descend so far below the level of decent citizenship as to foster the current pay-envelope campaign against America's working people. Only reckless men, heedless of consequences, would risk the disruption of the hope for a new peace between worker and employer by returning to the tactics of the labor spy . . . The very employers and politicians and publishers who talk most loudly of class antagonism and the destruction of the American system now undermine that system by this attempt to coerce the votes of the wage earners of this country . . . Every message in a pay envelope, even if it is the truth, is a command to vote according to the will of the employer. But this propaganda is worse—it is deceit....
But they are guilty of more than deceit. When they imply that the reserves thus created against both these policies [social security and medicare] will be stolen by some future Congress, diverted to some wholly foreign purpose, they attack the integrity and honor of American Government itself. Those who suggest that, are already aliens to the spirit of American democracy. Let them emigrate and try their lot under some foreign flag in which they have more confidence . . .
Quote from: The Brain on November 12, 2020, 11:33:14 AM
From the GOP perspective Trumpism (for lack of a better word) is good. Trumpism works.
It worked for Peron, it can work for post-Trump republicans.
Will Trump attend Biden's inauguration :ph34r:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 12, 2020, 08:55:47 PM
Will Trump attend Biden's inauguration :ph34r:
:lmfao:
Not likely, no.
He should be made to walk in Biden's triumph.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 12, 2020, 10:34:54 PM
He should be made to walk in Biden's triumph.
Careful. If you set this precedent, a future Obama 2.0 or Biden 2.0 may have to walk in Trump 2.0's triumph too :ph34r:
Still be good entertainment.
Are you not entertained?!
Animal rights groups killed off the circus. <_<
Quote from: Monoriu on November 12, 2020, 10:38:43 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 12, 2020, 10:34:54 PM
He should be made to walk in Biden's triumph.
Careful. If you set this precedent, a future Obama 2.0 or Biden 2.0 may have to walk in Trump 2.0's triumph too :ph34r:
I mean Biden 1.0 and Obama 1.0 pretty much did so in the 2017 Trump triumph.
Surveying the allegations of the various allegations, it's kind of amazing how little in the way of irregularities or improprieties the Trump campaign has been able to find. I would have expected that in an election with over 150 million voting in unusual circumstances and with heavy use of mailed ballots in jurisdictions with little history of widespread usage there would have been a lot of glitches and screwups. It seems like there were a few inconsequential ones but really nothing of significance.
Yeah, Austria is mentioned in the Washington Post! :w00t:
Oh.
Oh.
:(
(https://i.postimg.cc/FRw59WLW/cases.jpg)
Turns out shutting down bars and restaurants and otherwise mostly relying on people observing social distancing didn't quite do the trick. There's expected to be tighter measures announced today or tomorrow. I suppose the next step would be to shut down all non-essential places again.
Shutting down bars and restaurants seems to have worked pretty well over here, I must say. We've been under Rt=1 for nearly a week now.
Glad to see the second wave is peaking.
Three waves was the way of the Spanish Flu and the second was the worst. No reason why history must necessarily repeat but... looks promising.
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 04:58:43 AM
Glad to see the second wave is peaking.
Three waves was the way of the Spanish Flu and the second was the worst. No reason why history must necessarily repeat but... looks promising.
Hong Kong experienced three waves so far. The third wave was a lot worse than the second.
PS Why are we suddenly talking about coronavirus in the US election thread? :unsure:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 13, 2020, 05:31:01 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 04:58:43 AM
Glad to see the second wave is peaking.
Three waves was the way of the Spanish Flu and the second was the worst. No reason why history must necessarily repeat but... looks promising.
Hong Kong experienced three waves so far. The third wave was a lot worse than the second.
PS Why are we suddenly talking about coronavirus in the US election thread? :unsure:
It didn't keep safe distance with the other covid threads.
Lawyer question: How do law-talkers feel about bringing frivolous and meritless lawsuits before a judge?
I'm not American or a litigator - but I think there's a reason Trump is using the law firms he's using for these claims.
Edit: Although probably the two other big considerations for taking a client is that they won't actively make your life more difficult by publicly contradicting you etc and will they pay. I'm not sure Trump comes out very well on either of those fronts.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 13, 2020, 05:48:22 AM
Lawyer question: How do law-talkers feel about bringing frivolous and meritless lawsuits before a judge?
For them, it is Tuesday.
Wrong! It's Friday. The Thirteenth. :ph34r:
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 13, 2020, 06:43:46 AM
Wrong! It's Friday. The Thirteenth. :ph34r:
pls let it be part 8 jason takes manhattan
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 05:56:33 AM
I'm not American or a litigator - but I think there's a reason Trump is using the law firms he's using for these claims.
Edit: Although probably the two other big considerations for taking a client is that they won't actively make your life more difficult by publicly contradicting you etc and will they pay. I'm not sure Trump comes out very well on either of those fronts.
What reason?
Quote from: Razgovory on November 13, 2020, 05:48:22 AM
Lawyer question: How do law-talkers feel about bringing frivolous and meritless lawsuits before a judge?
I'm not a litigator, but I work with many. They would not do it. There are many reasons.
The first, obviously, is that it is unethical to waste the time and money of the court and the other side on merit less proceedings. Though of course non-lawyers often refuse to credit it, many lawyers take professional ethics very seriously.
However, even assuming ethics isn't an issue for a litigator, there is also a healthy dose of self-interest involved. As a litigator, your most valuable resource is your reputation - judges and opposing counsel are human (evidence to the contrary notwithstanding ;)) and they remember lawyers, just as lawyers remember judges. Get a reputation as a person who brings merit less proceedings and you will find them less willing to give you any sort of breaks in the future. There are all sorts of ways this can harm your future career, long after you have spent all the cash you got from your frivolous and vexatious client.
Indeed, one of the major mysteries of the Trump thing is how many professional types apparently forgot this fact, and were willing to permanently blot themselves with his stink just to earn some cash now.
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 07:36:32 AM
What reason?
As Malthus says about reputation. And you know they will have duties to the court so they submit a claim for PR purposes, but as soon as they're in front of a judge, they have to admit there's no evidence to support it. I imagine the better litigators in the US would either be preparing claims that are narrower and based on the evidence, but that wouldn't meet Trump's PR needs (and there's a difference between very aggressive claims to threaten contractors who might not be able to fight back - Trump's typical tactic - and ones against US states that will defend their electoral system).
Plus, as I say, Trump is an uncontrollable client and I'm not convinced he'll reliably pay his bills.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 09:30:17 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 07:36:32 AM
What reason?
As Malthus says about reputation. And you know they will have duties to the court so they submit a claim for PR purposes, but as soon as they're in front of a judge, they have to admit there's no evidence to support it. I imagine the better litigators in the US would either be preparing claims that are narrower and based on the evidence, but that wouldn't meet Trump's PR needs (and there's a difference between very aggressive claims to threaten contractors who might not be able to fight back - Trump's typical tactic - and ones against US states that will defend their electoral system).
Plus, as I say, Trump is an uncontrollable client and I'm not convinced he'll reliably pay his bills.
It would definitely be true to form.
Man it'd be beautiful if he doesn't do it even in the world's spotlight...
Would like to think it will lead to justice finally coming and all the little guys he screwed over finally being compensating but you just know the sane won't push him and the Trumpies will see it as only right that he didn't pay those losers.
I've heard it called the "paper bag test".
As in, never make an argument or bring a claim that makes you wish you were wearing a paper bag over your head with eyeholes cut out so no-one can see who you are while you are making it ...
I think all the news orgs have called Arizona for Biden now.
In the US the "paper bag test" means that your skin must be lighter than a paper bag to get into a place.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 13, 2020, 09:59:11 AM
In the US the "paper bag test" means that your skin must be lighter than a paper bag to get into a place.
I thought it was used by racists in the South back in the day to determine if someone was 'black'.
EDIT: I guess we're probably saying the same thing.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 13, 2020, 09:59:11 AM
In the US the "paper bag test" means that your skin must be lighter than a paper bag to get into a place.
Never heard that one before - I guess US litigators must use a different term!
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 05:56:33 AM
I'm not American or a litigator - but I think there's a reason Trump is using the law firms he's using for these claims.
Edit: Although probably the two other big considerations for taking a client is that they won't actively make your life more difficult by publicly contradicting you etc and will they pay. I'm not sure Trump comes out very well on either of those fronts.
Both observations are sound. the Trump campaign has retained some larger firms but they seem to be staying more in the background. The new big Penn case seeking to stop the certifications was brought by a mid-sized firm based out of Columbus,OH and they have experienced internal dissent and pushback. Jones Day has also received heavy backlash even though they haven't appeared in any cases. None of the first tier election lawyers want to touch these cases either because they perceive them as reputationally damaging. What is left are politician-lawyers and lawyers that specialize in right wing advocacy litigation.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 09:30:17 AM
. I imagine the better litigators in the US would either be preparing claims that are narrower and based on the evidence, but that wouldn't meet Trump's PR needs
Actually most of the litigations fall into this category. In fact if the campaign got everything they were asking for in all the cases they brought - including the Michigan one - they would still lose (assuming the GA recount goes Biden as expected). There is a big disconnect between the allegations made in these cases- even the exaggerated and unsupported ones - and the crazy off the wall nonsense Trump is tweeting every hour.
Quote from: Malthus on November 13, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
I've heard it called the "paper bag test".
As in, never make an argument or bring a claim that makes you wish you were wearing a paper bag over your head with eyeholes cut out so no-one can see who you are while you are making it ...
Usually just called the "laugh test" here. We lack the metaphorical creativity of the Ontario bar.
I have never heard of the paper bag test.
We are more like the NY Bar - won't get laughed out of court.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 13, 2020, 10:32:47 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 13, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
I've heard it called the "paper bag test".
As in, never make an argument or bring a claim that makes you wish you were wearing a paper bag over your head with eyeholes cut out so no-one can see who you are while you are making it ...
Usually just called the "laugh test" here. We lack the metaphorical creativity of the Ontario bar.
So I do deal with regulators and I've heard the similarly simple "red face test".
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2020, 05:51:17 PM
FDR was a wealthy patrician from an old established family, but he used to say stuff like this:
QuoteWe had to struggle with the old enemies of peace—business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering.
They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.
Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.
I should like to have it said of my first Administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second Administration that in it these forces met their master.
The American people know from a four-year record that today there is only one entrance to the White House—by the front door. Since March 4, 1933, there has been only one pass-key to the White House. I have carried that key in my pocket. It is there tonight. So long as I am President, it will remain in my pocket.
Those who used to have pass-keys are not happy. Some of them are desperate. Only desperate men with their backs to the wall would descend so far below the level of decent citizenship as to foster the current pay-envelope campaign against America's working people. Only reckless men, heedless of consequences, would risk the disruption of the hope for a new peace between worker and employer by returning to the tactics of the labor spy . . . The very employers and politicians and publishers who talk most loudly of class antagonism and the destruction of the American system now undermine that system by this attempt to coerce the votes of the wage earners of this country . . . Every message in a pay envelope, even if it is the truth, is a command to vote according to the will of the employer. But this propaganda is worse—it is deceit....
But they are guilty of more than deceit. When they imply that the reserves thus created against both these policies [social security and medicare] will be stolen by some future Congress, diverted to some wholly foreign purpose, they attack the integrity and honor of American Government itself. Those who suggest that, are already aliens to the spirit of American democracy. Let them emigrate and try their lot under some foreign flag in which they have more confidence . . .
So it's funny but I have actually been doing a lot of reading about FDR's campaigns in 2020. Mainly because while I feel like I'm decently well read on that era of U.S. history, I had never done much of a dive into the specifics of FDR's campaigns, and to a degree I assumed Hoover's mismanagement of the economy and the widespread blame the country laid on the GOP for that kinda set FDR up for an easy walk. While some of that is true, if you follow his New York gubernatorial campaigns and some of his more contested Presidential campaigns, the guy really was in my opinion an amazing political messenger. I don't think you can just copy and paste stuff from the 1930s into the 2020s, but some of the tone and underlying ideas behind those FDR campaigns are universal and I think you could really argue for the Democrats making more arguments like this in the future. Most Democrat campaigns I have observed in the past 10 years come off as too wonky, too mired in complex policy issues most voters don't take the time to understand and etc.
For those who didn't believe me that Schumer's comment was stupid, it took all of a week for it to be made into the new ad that is up now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StcY3xE6Bsk
Quote from: alfred russel on November 13, 2020, 12:05:01 PM
For those who didn't believe me that Schumer's comment was stupid, it took all of a week for it to be made into the new ad that is up now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StcY3xE6Bsk
Damn. That is definitely proof that he should never have spoken. If someone can take your words, deliberately mis-interpret them, then create a political attack ad, you should definitely never speak those words.
WOW! A SENATOR SAYING HE'S GOING TO TRY TO TAKE A STATE!
Quote from: alfred russel on November 13, 2020, 12:05:01 PM
For those who didn't believe me that Schumer's comment was stupid, it took all of a week for it to be made into the new ad that is up now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StcY3xE6Bsk
Change is bad was always going to be the Republican message. Change is good was always going to be the Democratic message. I am not sure what believing you has to do with what was always going to happen.
I'm with AR. I get what you're saying but the messenger and messaging matter and this still seems like an own goal.
Would Ossof and Warnock invite Schumer to come and campaign in Georgia? No - so he should just shut up beyond "we've got great candidates and I look forward to working with them after they've won". There's no need for him to insert himself into this.
Yeah if Mitch McConnell commented on how he needed these seats to stop Joe Biden, or whatever, that would be getting big air time as well.
So much of this is performative bullshit and Schumer failed us here by not doing the performative bullshit correctly.
Trump wins NC.
I don't really buy that Schumer's comments will have any impact on those races at all. The fundamentals for the Dems to win either race were poor to begin with, and it is not amazingly likely there is much they can change about it. Ossoff has ran a few campaigns now and come up short a few times, he's not going to cut the sort of inspiring figure that I think is needed to make the "New South" coalition that delivered Georgia for Biden come out for him. I think he should try to get really close to Stacy Abrams organization and hope for the best, but I just don't see it.
Now Warnock I think actually has a much better chance, I think he will still lose simply because Democrat turnout in special elections is something you would historically be very foolish to count on. But Warnock being black, a bit socially conservative, a pastor, much more charismatic, I think he's the sort of candidate that can win in the "New South." It also helps that Loeffler isn't particularly appealing either, in Ossoff's race Purdue is kind of boring but not deeply offensive.
I don't really think the idea that Democrats should be running these campaigns acting like it's a secret that they will determine who controls the U.S. Senate is particularly smart. Voters may be low information as a rule, but they are not that low information, as a whole. People in Georgia know what they're voting for, and they know the implications. The last thing they're going to be talking about is Chuck Schumer.
For what it's worth I think this habit the GOP has of running ads in congressional races demonizing the top Dem in the House (Pelosi) and in the Senate (Schumer) simply because they are more liberal than people in the flyover states, has never been particularly smart. I think it's just what happens when you route too much money through the same right wing ad firms over and over again. They ran ads against Pelosi in basically every contested race at every level of Government from 2016-2020, you could certainly cherry pick some races where Republicans did good and say it was because of those ads, but the evidence I see suggests very few voters actually vote in an Iowa Congressional race based on what Nancy Pelosi is doing. A lion's share of the GOP strategy in the '18 midterms was anti-Pelosi advertising and it basically failed for them across the board.
I think instead the best evidence is that the Democrats do better when they focus on the traditional political paths to doing better: good candidates, ground game, money allocated towards the appropriate races, a broadly cohesive national message, and good local messaging. In 2018 they basically did all of that and did very well. In 2020 I would argue they didn't, the Biden campaign ran pretty damn well to elect Joe Biden. I don't know that it was engaged in the sort of ground game, message building and etc that would have helped House candidates and Senate candidates. Biden's strategy to let Trump "punch himself out" and dominate the airwaves was probably smart at defeating Trump, but I think you had a real messaging void for the entire Dem party because of it, which may have helped Biden, but probably hurt down ballot candidates who were facing a different sort of reality. Also of course--Trump generated a genuine red wave to go along with the genuine blue wave that came out to defeat him--and because of the geographic distribution of these voters it meant that even in states where Biden outperformed Hillary and won, you had greater concentrations of Republicans in certain areas that likely doomed Democratic congressional candidates who may have done everything right because their districts were just much Trumpier in composition than in 2018.
FWIW some more data coming out that suggests Dems need to just focus on fundamentals is emerging with the Latino vote. In the Rio Grande Valley and in Miami-Dade, both areas where Republicans courted Latino votes and Democrats did poorly. In the Rio Grande valley the simple effect of Republicans courting Latinos and Dems doing nothing was on full display, it's not shocking that voters you don't court at all vote for you in lower numbers. In Miami-Dade, Biden certainly put money into the state, but there were articles going back to June saying the GOP's full court press in Miami-Dade was huge and Biden was doing minimal to resist it. He started throwing more money into the area in September or so, but Miami talk radio (which is overwhelmingly right wing and conservative on Spanish language stations) really counter-messaged against Biden with Biden himself and his surrogates more or less having no real counter message to present at all. It's really not surprising to me given how they ran it, how Biden underperformed with Latinos in South Florida. I think Biden was smart to not really push hard in Texas, it's a huge state and thus expensive to run in, and was never going to go blue unless Biden had already secured a massive electoral college win, so diverting resources from must win states to Texas was questionable. But Biden clearly wanted to win Florida and was right to want that, since it's a knockout punch versus a Republican President, and I think they campaigned poorly there.
Then you go to Arizona where Latino enthusiasm for Democrats in Maricopa county was extremely high and gave Biden his victory--he pulled 75% in some majority Latino precincts. The Biden campaign ran really aggressively in Arizona and courted Latino voters, and the Trump campaign didn't run well there (to be honest in terms of traditional campaigning effort, Florida was where the Trump campaign did best and they also have in some respects been campaigning in Florida for four years.)
I think there's positives and negatives for both sides to draw in 2020. The biggest positive for Republicans is they've now proven in a true turnout election, they can be competitive. I think they should genuinely rethink their efforts to make voting harder, I actually think it is costing them votes. They have also learned if you go out and campaign for those voters, you can increasing minority vote share for the GOP. In many ways this is a good thing not just for the GOP but for the country--a less white GOP likely helps diversify the party not just in race but in mentality, which it sorely needs not for political purposes but for "not being a decaying cesspit of a political organization" purposes.
The biggest take away for Democrats should be that the time to just coast on "Demographics is Destiny" is not 2022 or 2024, I don't even doubt the demographic argument, I just think the GOP has shown their white working class base can basically turn any election into a coin flip right now and likely we're talking another ten years before that changes such that it becomes entirely non-viable (at which point the GOP has to cobble together a widening coalition, most likely built on the share of the Hispanic and black population that is socially conservative.) If the Dems run an election in 2022 or 2024 like they did this year, they will do very, very badly. 2018 was in many respects a healthcare election and it won the Dems a lot of seats. I think Democrats need a singular and non-controversial topic like that to do well in elections, and they need to pair it with well selected local candidates.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 12:27:20 PM
I'm with AR. I get what you're saying but the messenger and messaging matter and this still seems like an own goal.
Would Ossof and Warnock invite Schumer to come and campaign in Georgia? No - so he should just shut up beyond "we've got great candidates and I look forward to working with them after they've won". There's no need for him to insert himself into this.
I am pretty sure the people of Georgia already knew a Democratic senate would mean Democratic legislation getting passed through Congress. And that has got to be the way they get their vote out. Want real change? Want to undue all the Trump harm. Give us control of the Senate.
He really goes on a journey in this tweet:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
For years the Dems have been preaching how unsafe and rigged our elections have been. Now they are saying what a wonderful job the Trump Administration did in making 2020 the most secure election ever. Actually this is true, except for what the Democrats did. Rigged Election!
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
Not to my knowledge? Hillary wasn't saying the 2016 election was rigged, he was.
It is just whataboutism. Even if the Democrats constantly accused people of election fraud without evidence that hardly justifies Donald Trump doing it.
Trump might be spouting nonsense.
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
He's referencing the Russians in 2016.
Democrats pushed for a election security bill a while back. No one said it was "rigged", though. Republicans were opposed to it because it required campaigns to alert the FEC if a foreign national tried to give a campaign money.
Quote from: Barrister on November 13, 2020, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
He's referencing the Russians in 2016.
Stop being an enabler, he is just spouting out idiotic BS.
Quote from: PDH on November 13, 2020, 02:43:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 13, 2020, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
He's referencing the Russians in 2016.
Stop being an enabler, he is just spouting out idiotic BS.
I'm just trying to be a Trump-decoder.
When Trump says "the Democrats claimed elections are rigged" he's talking about how the Democrats raised warnings about how the Russians were interfering in the 2016 election. The fact that the Russians were interfering doesn't factor into his reasoning.
I just want to point out nobody was claiming that therefore Hillary Clinton won unless they were talking about the popular vote. Because the person who gets the most votes winning elections hurts farmers.
Quote from: Barrister on November 13, 2020, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2020, 02:13:51 PM
The dems have been saying elections are rigged? :unsure:
He's referencing the Russians in 2016.
How could you possibly know what he was refencing? Even
he didn't know what he was referencing! :lol:
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2020, 02:48:15 PM
I just want to point out nobody was claiming that therefore Hillary Clinton won unless they were talking about the popular vote. Because the person who gets the most votes winning elections hurts farmers isn't how the US Constitution arranged the election of the US President.
FTFY
Quote from: grumbler on November 13, 2020, 02:56:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2020, 02:48:15 PM
I just want to point out nobody was claiming that therefore Hillary Clinton won unless they were talking about the popular vote. Because the person who gets the most votes winning elections hurts farmers isn't how the US Constitution arranged the election of the US President.
FTFY
Nonsense. We could easily arrange the electoral college, in multiple ways, to have the person who gets the most votes win the election (or even reflect it to a greater degree). Nowhere in the Constitution says we have to do it how we currently do it. You are making that part up.
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2020, 03:15:46 PM
Nonsense. We could easily arrange the electoral college, in multiple ways, to have the person who gets the most votes win the election (or even reflect it to a greater degree). Nowhere in the Constitution says we have to do it how we currently do it. You are making that part up.
Nonsense. "We" couldn't arrange that, because each state would have to go along (such as in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact that I've been pushing here for some time). Nowhere in the Constitution does it say that "the person who gets the most votes winning elections hurts farmers." You are making that part up. What the Constitution actually says is that the electors, not the regular voters (including the farmers), elect the President and Vice-President. When the Constitution was written, people were overwhelmingly farmers, but the system wasn't written as it was to help or hurt the farmers. If anything, it was written to help the rich landowners in the South.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 02:05:56 PM
He really goes on a journey in this tweet:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
For years the Dems have been preaching how unsafe and rigged our elections have been. Now they are saying what a wonderful job the Trump Administration did in making 2020 the most secure election ever. Actually this is true, except for what the Democrats did. Rigged Election!
Internal consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
Speakin of which, I haven't seen any stories about Russian bots planting fake stories this election. Do you think our fine men and women down at the Deep State have found a way to stop that?
Trump and his ilk have been doing well enough on their own dontcha think?
Quote from: grumbler on November 13, 2020, 05:51:27 PM
Nonsense. "We" couldn't arrange that, because each state would have to go along (such as in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact that I've been pushing here for some time).
Exactly. The system, as designed by the Constitution, is freely able to take popular vote into effect or not at all. It just depends on how the states design it. South Carolina prior to 1868 didn't feel that the unwashed masses should be involved.
QuoteWhen the Constitution was written, people were overwhelmingly farmers, but the system wasn't written as it was to help or hurt the farmers.
I am well aware of that. The system we have currently favors rural areas but that has nothing to do with the Constitution, it could easily not be that way.
Quote from: katmai on November 13, 2020, 06:04:03 PM
Trump and his ilk have been doing well enough on their own dontcha think?
ha ha ha. No, no, I actually want Russian interference to stop. I can see now that my wording didn't make that clear.
QuoteIncoming GOP Senator Apparently Doesn't Know Basics of World War II
Though war metaphors are common in the language of sports, it appears that Tommy Tuberville, the incoming Republican senator from Alabama, didn't learn much about World War II in his time coaching Auburn football. On Thursday night in Montgomery, Tuberville told his supporters about the sterling military record of his father, an American G.I. who landed on Normandy Beach in D-Day and drove a tank across western Europe, earning five bronze stars and a Purple Heart at the Battle of the Bulge during his deployment.
Despite being of an age at which American men pick up military history as if by osmosis, Tuberville did not seem familiar with the politics of the European theater: In his speech, the new senator described how his father took part in "liberating Paris from socialism and communism." While this may be an effort to compare his father's combat experience to his own effort to halt "the doctrine of socialism" in America, the coach's political framework is off. When First Sergeant Charles Tuberville landed in France in 1944, he was part of a campaign to liberate the Allied power from the Nazis. Though the full name of the party that Hitler rode into power was the National Socialist German Workers' Party, the Nazis were fascists. And for students of history aware of the robust French left prior to the war, Tuberville's gaffe could accidentally suggest that his father was involved in a different march into Paris in the 1940s.
Tuberville — who has vowed to "donate every penny" of his Senate salary to Alabama veterans' groups and once ran a charity for veterans' causes that donated less than a third of its proceeds — has made other mistakes about pivotal 20th-century events in recent months. In October, his Democratic opponent in the race, Senator Doug Jones, hit him for not knowing what the Voting Rights Act is as a candidate in Alabama.
Auburn :lol:
No the Nazis are now officially the Communist now. It is known.
The far right in Germany consisted of good decent folk oppressed by Marxist pinkos like Hitler, Himmler and Goering. Didn't you know? I heard it from Dinesh D'Souza on OANN
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 14, 2020, 11:03:17 AM
Auburn :lol:
It may be funny, but I find it troubling that someone seemingly so inept can be elected to one of the highest offices in the country.
Nothing in that article suggests he's more inept than POTUS. :sleep:
Is this ignorance of history or the "zomg national SOCIALISTS. Nazis were left wing!" strain of paint drinking?
I am sure it's a case of him being utterly stupid and uneducated, but like Minsky say I have noticed some attempts to create the Nazis-were-communists-ergo-its-ok-to-be-American-and-white-supremacist narrative.
It also ties in nicely to Republicans blowing an old KGB guy every chance they get.
Quote from: Tyr on November 14, 2020, 11:36:31 AM
Is this ignorance of history or the "zomg national SOCIALISTS. Nazis were left wing!" strain of paint drinking?
2nd one.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 14, 2020, 12:49:23 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 14, 2020, 11:36:31 AM
Is this ignorance of history or the "zomg national SOCIALISTS. Nazis were left wing!" strain of paint drinking?
2nd one.
I would have thought just straight out ignorance of history. Someone should point out to the Senator that his father was fighting on the same side as communists and socialists.
This Tuberville guy doesn't seem to be very knowledgeable about the American political system either.
QuoteSenator-elect Tommy Tuberville flubs basics of the Constitution, World War II and the 2000 election.
In his first big interview as a senator-elect, Tommy Tuberville, Republican of Alabama, misidentified the three branches of the federal government, claimed erroneously that World War II was a battle against socialism and wrongly asserted that former Vice President Al Gore was president-elect for 30 days.
Mr. Tuberville, a former Auburn University football coach who decisively defeated Senator Doug Jones, a Democrat, last week, gave the remarkable interview to The Alabama Daily News on Thursday after attending orientation for new senators in Washington.
Asked if he thought Republicans could still use their potential Senate majority to pass legislation in divided government, with Democrats controlling the White House and House of Representatives, Mr. Tuberville replied that he had been given a mandate to "help people," adding, "I don't care if you're a Republican or Democrat."
"Our government wasn't set up for one group to have all three branches of government — wasn't set up that way," Mr. Tuberville said. "You know, the House, the Senate, and the executive."
The three branches of the federal government, as laid out in the Constitution, are the legislative, including both the House and Senate; the executive, or presidency; and judicial, which includes the Supreme Court.
Asked to opine on the key takeaways from the election, Mr. Tuberville said he was concerned that Mr. Biden, a mainstream, centrist Democrat, had promoted a vision that he claimed "leads more to a socialist type of government."
"That's concerning to me, that we're to the point now where we've got almost half the country voting for something that this country wasn't built on," Mr. Tuberville said. "I tell people, my dad fought 76 years ago in Europe to free Europe of socialism."
World War II was a global battle against fascism.
Mr. Tuberville also said he planned to use his Senate office to raise money for two Republican senators in Georgia who are facing runoff elections that will determine control of the chamber. Senate ethics rules bar the use of official resources for campaign purposes.
And in another exchange, he erroneously said that Mr. Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, was president-elect for 30 days during an intense, protracted recount and legal battle. Neither Mr. Gore nor George W. Bush were considered the president-elect during that process.
The interview amounted to the most in-depth remarks Mr. Tuberville had given since he was elected last week. He cut a low profile on the campaign trail, rarely making himself available to reporters other than those at conservative outlets, but had positioned himself as a staunch supporter of President Trump.
Okay, maybe his just an idiot.
From Twitter, so take it with a pinch of salt.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJW0Z6XEAEtdIx?format=jpg&name=medium)
People of a different race to a racist don't vote for racist. Film at 11.
I do look forward to proper data coming out for this to show how black women kicked Trump's arse.
Data source? I saw the salt comment.
Quote from: The Larch on November 15, 2020, 07:47:56 AM
From Twitter, so take it with a pinch of salt.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmJW0Z6XEAEtdIx?format=jpg&name=medium)
This is from the 2016 election I think
PornHub's data analysts released this:
(https://www.the-sun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2020/11/NINTCHDBPICT000620259205.jpg)
I appreciate "Washington DP" ^_^
Rule 34 and all that, but there's Among Us porn already? :lol:
DC's is "Vote" :lol:
Trump lawyer Sidney Powell on Fox: "We're fixing to overturn the results of the election in multiple states, and President Trump won by not just hundreds of thousands of votes but by millions of votes that were shifted by the software that's designed expressly for that purpose."
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1327994880833040385?s=20
:wacko: :wacko: :wacko:
Quote from: Syt on November 15, 2020, 10:24:00 AM
Trump lawyer Sidney Powell on Fox: "We're fixing to overturn the results of the election in multiple states, and President Trump won by not just hundreds of thousands of votes but by millions of votes that were shifted by the software that's designed expressly for that purpose."
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1327994880833040385?s=20
:wacko: :wacko: :wacko:
Giulani claimed that all of Trump's stolen votes were sent to Barcelona :ph34r:
https://twitter.com/andersivera/status/1327307273555816449
I should get on the case!
It's easy to mock Guiliani, but have you ever considered real freedom? Freedom from the opinion of others? Maybe even of yourself? Guiliani is free in all the ways that we are not. Status means nothing to him. Approval means nothing to him. Dignity means nothing to him.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose ..."
I love that he mentions Indra (Spanish tech company that also deals with Spanish elections), which is also a common target for Spanish conspiracy nuts each election. I wonder who's feeding him this :lol:
I'm sure grumbler will be along shortly to tell us how American institutions are strong while the President refuses to accept defeat, actively hindering his successor's job, and half the country apparently thinks that's okay.
I mean technically he has not lost until the electors cast their votes a month from now, has he?
The title should be updated to US Election Quarter 2020-2021.
Was thinking the same thing
Quote from: Solmyr on November 15, 2020, 12:38:58 PM
I'm sure grumbler will be along shortly to tell us how American institutions are strong while the President refuses to accept defeat, actively hindering his successor's job, and half the country apparently thinks that's okay.
I see that Trump is not the only person who loves making strawman arguments. :lol:
Quote from: Tamas on November 15, 2020, 12:57:32 PM
I mean technically he has not lost until the electors cast their votes a month from now, has he?
Yes. In modern times, the losers have conceded before the EC meets, but I don't think that that will happen this time. It's a moot point, as the Administrator of the GAO can kick off the transition before then.
Quote from: grumbler on November 15, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 15, 2020, 12:57:32 PM
I mean technically he has not lost until the electors cast their votes a month from now, has he?
Yes. In modern times, the losers have conceded before the EC meets, but I don't think that that will happen this time. It's a moot point, as the Administrator of the GAO can kick off the transition before then.
that doesn't seem to be likely this year no?
Quote from: katmai on November 15, 2020, 05:21:41 PM
that doesn't seem to be likely this year no?
That depends of how much of a Trump loyalist the GAO Administrator is. He can announce the transition and, since he works for Congress (and has a 15-year term with 5 years to go) get away with it, I think. For what it is worth, he was nominated by Obama.
Ah sorry I was confusing the GSA and GAO.
What's the role of the accountability office in the transition?
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 15, 2020, 07:43:38 PM
What's the role of the accountability office in the transition?
None AFAIK. (General Accounting Office).
On a totally different note, what ever happened to the millions of people who were going to be suppressed by voter ID laws?
Quote from: katmai on November 15, 2020, 07:05:53 PM
Ah sorry I was confusing the GSA and GAO.
Actally, it was me that turned them around. You are correct that it is the GSA, not the GAO. I was wondering why the law said "Administrator" when the title of the head of GAO is called the Comptroller General. The head of the GSA is Emily W. Murphy, who has refused to allow the transition to begin, on Trump's orders. That's okay for the nonce, as the results haven't been certified and Trump has not conceded. It will be a problem later, though.
Well we had the highest voter turnout since women got the right to vote so it could be those people found a way to get an ID. Of course I don't know how many states have voter ID laws and if that correlates to turnout or not.
33 states have a voter ID law.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 15, 2020, 08:00:16 PM
On a totally different note, what ever happened to the millions of people who were going to be suppressed by voter ID laws?
Either the efforts didn't work, or they worked but didn't matter enough to change the outcome. What "millions of people" are we talking about? One-third of eligible voters didn't vote, but how many didn't vote because of ID laws?
So here is how things stand on Trump's PA suit.
Complaint was filed October 9, alleging widespread "irregularities" and seeking to enjoin certification of the entire state vote.
The following day, October 10, the court held a scheduling conference - and scheduled oral argument on a motion to dismiss for Oct 17 and an evidentiary hearing on the proposed injunction on Oct. 19
On Oct. 12, Penn files its motion to dismiss. A few hours later, Trump's lead counsel withdraws from the case. that leaves a local solo practitioner as remaining counsel.
On Oct. 15 - Trumps deadline to file an opposition to the motion to dismiss - his lawyer files an amended complaint that abandons nearly the entire basis for the complaint and replaces it with a new complaint based a small number of ballots that had technical defects and where voters were permitted to fix them, in accordance with state election law as announced by the PA Supreme Court. Of course, even if this was wrong (it isn't) there is nowhere near enough such ballots to affect the PA result.
Trump's lawyer then files an opposition saying the motion to dismiss the case is now moot because there is a new complaint.
The same day, the state files a new motion to dismiss the new complaint.
The next day - Oct 16 - Trump's remaining lawyer also withdraws from the case. While withdrawing she says new counsel is coming in who is aware of the existing schedule and will keep to i.
A new lawyer enters an appearance for Trump and - at 7:40 PM - requests a postponement of the following day's hearing. Which is promptly denied.
Hint: not a good sign when both sets of lawyers bringing a case withdraw within a week of filing.
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/778176432848371733/Yhpp6qC.jpg)
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 17, 2020, 01:51:32 AM
So here is how things stand on Trump's PA suit.
Complaint was filed October 9, alleging widespread "irregularities" and seeking to enjoin certification of the entire state vote.
The following day, October 10, the court held a scheduling conference - and scheduled oral argument on a motion to dismiss for Oct 17 and an evidentiary hearing on the proposed injunction on Oct. 19
On Oct. 12, Penn files its motion to dismiss. A few hours later, Trump's lead counsel withdraws from the case. that leaves a local solo practitioner as remaining counsel.
On Oct. 15 - Trumps deadline to file an opposition to the motion to dismiss - his lawyer files an amended complaint that abandons nearly the entire basis for the complaint and replaces it with a new complaint based a small number of ballots that had technical defects and where voters were permitted to fix them, in accordance with state election law as announced by the PA Supreme Court. Of course, even if this was wrong (it isn't) there is nowhere near enough such ballots to affect the PA result.
Trump's lawyer then files an opposition saying the motion to dismiss the case is now moot because there is a new complaint.
The same day, the state files a new motion to dismiss the new complaint.
The next day - Oct 16 - Trump's remaining lawyer also withdraws from the case. While withdrawing she says new counsel is coming in who is aware of the existing schedule and will keep to i.
A new lawyer enters an appearance for Trump and - at 7:40 PM - requests a postponement of the following day's hearing. Which is promptly denied.
Hint: not a good sign when both sets of lawyers bringing a case withdraw within a week of filing.
Are you sure it's October and not November?
Quote from: Solmyr on November 17, 2020, 05:25:09 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/778176432848371733/Yhpp6qC.jpg)
:lmfao:
hey! ça prenait les élections américaines pour ramener les portés disparus! :D
The american elections were needed to bring back so many ancients! :D
Quote from: Razgovory on November 17, 2020, 09:01:55 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 17, 2020, 01:51:32 AM
So here is how things stand on Trump's PA suit.
Complaint was filed October 9, alleging widespread "irregularities" and seeking to enjoin certification of the entire state vote.
The following day, October 10, the court held a scheduling conference - and scheduled oral argument on a motion to dismiss for Oct 17 and an evidentiary hearing on the proposed injunction on Oct. 19
On Oct. 12, Penn files its motion to dismiss. A few hours later, Trump's lead counsel withdraws from the case. that leaves a local solo practitioner as remaining counsel.
On Oct. 15 - Trumps deadline to file an opposition to the motion to dismiss - his lawyer files an amended complaint that abandons nearly the entire basis for the complaint and replaces it with a new complaint based a small number of ballots that had technical defects and where voters were permitted to fix them, in accordance with state election law as announced by the PA Supreme Court. Of course, even if this was wrong (it isn't) there is nowhere near enough such ballots to affect the PA result.
Trump's lawyer then files an opposition saying the motion to dismiss the case is now moot because there is a new complaint.
The same day, the state files a new motion to dismiss the new complaint.
The next day - Oct 16 - Trump's remaining lawyer also withdraws from the case. While withdrawing she says new counsel is coming in who is aware of the existing schedule and will keep to i.
A new lawyer enters an appearance for Trump and - at 7:40 PM - requests a postponement of the following day's hearing. Which is promptly denied.
Hint: not a good sign when both sets of lawyers bringing a case withdraw within a week of filing.
Are you sure it's October and not November?
Got to stop posting late night . . .
I would like to say I am surprised. Well, maybe, just a little that they are so bold. But I'm not that surprised they're trying to suppress the vote.
Ga. secretary of state says fellow Republicans are pressuring him to find ways to exclude ballots (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/brad-raffensperger-georgia-vote/2020/11/16/6b6cb2f4-283e-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html?itid=hp-top-table-main)
QuoteGeorgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Monday that he has come under increasing pressure in recent days from fellow Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), who he said questioned the validity of legally cast absentee ballots, in an effort to reverse President Trump's narrow loss in the state.
Follow the latest on Election 2020
In a wide-ranging interview about the election, Raffensperger expressed exasperation over a string of baseless allegations coming from Trump and his allies about the integrity of the Georgia results, including claims that Dominion Voting Systems, the Colorado-based manufacturer of Georgia's voting machines, is a "leftist" company with ties to Venezuela that engineered thousands of Trump votes to be left out of the count.
The atmosphere has grown so contentious, Raffensperger said, that he and his wife, Tricia, have received death threats in recent days, including a text to him that read: "You better not botch this recount. Your life depends on it."
"Other than getting you angry, it's also very disillusioning," Raffensperger said of the threats, "particularly when it comes from people on my side of the aisle. Everyone that is working on this needs to elevate their speech. We need to be thoughtful and careful about what we say." He said he reported the threats to state authorities.
The pressure on Raffensperger, who has bucked his party in defending the state's voting process, comes as Georgia is in the midst of a laborious hand recount of about 5 million ballots. President-elect Joe Biden has a 14,000-vote lead in the initial count.
The normally mild-mannered Raffensperger saved his harshest language for Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.), who is leading the president's efforts in Georgia and whom Raffensperger called a "liar" and a "charlatan."
Collins has questioned Raffensperger's handling of the vote and accused him of capitulating to Democrats by not backing allegations of voter fraud more strongly.
Raffensperger has said that every accusation of fraud will be thoroughly investigated, but that there is currently no credible evidence that fraud occurred on a broad enough scale to affect the outcome of the election.
The recount, Raffensperger said in the interview Monday, will "affirm" the results of the initial count. He said the hand-counted audit that began last week will also prove the accuracy of the Dominion machines; some counties have already reported that their hand recounts exactly match the machine tallies previously reported. Election officials in one county, Floyd, discovered about 2,600 eligible votes that were not included in the initial tallies because of a failure to upload them off a memory stick. The secretary of state's office said those votes probably would have been discovered, but it called for the resignation of the county election director.
"I'm an engineer. We look at numbers. We look at hard data," Raffensperger said. "I can't help it that a failed candidate like Collins is running around lying to everyone. He's a liar."
A spokeswoman for Collins replied to a request for comment by linking to a tweet Collins sent on Monday in which he described Raffensperger's "incompetence as Secretary of State."
Collins ran unsuccessfully for Senate this year and is blamed by some Republicans for pushing the incumbent in that race, fellow Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, into a runoff against the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat.
His fellow Republicans turned on him, but Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger isn't backing down
In the interview, Raffensperger also said he spoke on Friday to Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, who has echoed Trump's unfounded claims about voting irregularities.
In their conversation, Graham questioned Raffensperger about the state's signature-matching law and whether political bias could have prompted poll workers to accept ballots with nonmatching signatures, according to Raffensperger. Graham also asked whether Raffensperger had the power to toss all mail ballots in counties found to have higher rates of nonmatching signatures, Raffensperger said.
Raffensperger said he was stunned that Graham appeared to suggest that he find a way to toss legally cast ballots. Absent court intervention, Raffensperger doesn't have the power to do what Graham suggested because counties administer elections in Georgia.
"It sure looked like he was wanting to go down that road," Raffensperger said.
In an interview on Capitol Hill on Monday evening, Graham denied that he had suggested that Raffensperger toss legal ballots, calling that characterization "ridiculous."
But he said he did seek out the secretary of state to understand the state's signature-matching requirements. Graham said he contacted Raffensperger on his own and was not asked to do so by Trump.
"The main issue for me is: How do you protect the integrity of mail-in voting, and how does signature verification work?" he said.
"If he feels threatened by that conversation, he's got a problem," Graham added. "I actually thought it was a good conversation."
On the same day that Graham spoke to Raffensperger about signature matching, a lawsuit was filed in federal court in Georgia challenging the way county election officials check signatures and allow voters a chance to fix ballots with errors.
The suit, filed by Atlanta lawyer and Trump supporter Lin Wood, seeks to block certification of Georgia's election until all ballot envelopes are inspected.
Also that day, Trump tweeted about signature-matching in Georgia and criticized Raffensperger for his management of the state elections: "Georgia Secretary of State, a so-called Republican (RINO), won't let the people checking the ballots see the signatures for fraud. Why? Without this the whole process is very unfair and close to meaningless. Everyone knows that we won the state."
Raffensperger said he will vigorously fight the lawsuit, which would require the matching of ballot envelopes with ballots — potentially exposing individual voters' choices.
"It doesn't matter what political party or which campaign does that," Raffensperger said. "The secrecy of the vote is sacred."
The secretary of state also warned that the Republican attacks on Dominion voting machines could create issues for the state's Republican U.S. senators, Loeffler and David Perdue, who face runoffs on Jan. 5 that will be administered using the same Dominion machines.
Over the weekend, social media posts began appearing from Trump supporters questioning whether they feel comfortable using Dominion machines in the two runoff elections, which will determine which party controls the Senate.
"I don't think it's helpful when you create doubt in the election process," Raffensperger said. "People might throw up their arms and say, 'Why vote?' "Seung Min Kim and Paul Kane contributed to this report.
Graham is surprises his phone call was interpreted as "pressure". Yeah right. A US Senator has no business phoning to Georgia Secretary of State to inquire about the vote, point. If he heard something, he can incite these people to file a complaint, help them file a complaint if needed, but not interfere like that.
I'm glad there are still Republicans with a spine able to challenge Trump. Just too bad they ain't full time elected officials in the Federal govt.
Quote"Other than getting you angry, it's also very disillusioning," Raffensperger said of the threats, "particularly when it comes from people on my side of the aisle. Everyone that is working on this needs to elevate their speech. We need to be thoughtful and careful about what we say." He said he reported the threats to state authorities.
Time to leave that side of the aisle? Just a thought.
I mean I know it is narrow for the total number of votes cast but 14,000 votes is hardly some tiny margin that a few technically flawed votes can overcome. Besides who won Georgia does not impact the election outcome.
True, but they're trying to steal other states too.
Right, they have to work on at least three states because no one state can move it back to 270+ for Trump.
Asking someone to resign in disgrace simply to salve Donald Trump's ego is a big ask. This whole thing is bonkers. Are there any Republican office-holders who believe these bizarre conspiracy theories?
Quote from: Razgovory on November 17, 2020, 12:37:56 PM
Asking someone to resign in disgrace simply to salve Donald Trump's ego is a big ask. This whole thing is bonkers. Are there any Republican office-holders who believe these bizarre conspiracy theories?
You don't get high on your own supply.
AFAIK the only states that currently have active lawsuits from the Trump campaign are Michigan and Pennsylvania. Arizona was dropped, Georgia mooted by the recount. Assuming the GA recount doesn't affect the result, taking Michigan and PA off the table would bring Biden down to 270 - i.e. he still wins. So as of now there is no legal path that bars Biden even assuming total victory in the Michigan and Penn cases. Which is a very big assumption given that the MI case was basically DOA when filed and the hot mess of the Penn case could be failing right now in court.
I kind of want to see what happens if Giuliani comes into court claiming to have evidence of massive fraud and using some 4chan posts as evidence.
The man hasn't represented a client in a courtroom in about 30 years. And recent behavior gives reason to suspect he hasn't carefully maintained his skills in the meantime.
How likely is a court to agree to an alternative location for the proceedings anyway?
No transcript yet so based on second hand reports:
Rudy gives a long and florid opening statement filled with crazy accusations about massive fraud and Democratic Party conspiracies, quoting Rahm Emanuel and Mayor Daley. Maybe he thinks he's in Illinois?
Defendants then give their opening statement and make the point that none of the stuff Rudy talked about is in the amended complaint anymore.
Rudy gets back up and something resembling the following colloquy occurs:
Judge Brann: You are asking for millions of votes to be invalidated across the state. Can you tell me how this result can possibly be justified?
Rudy: You need a sweeping remedy because there is sweeping injury. Fraud fraud fraud there was massive election fraud blah blah blah (goes on)
Judge Brann: Under Federal Rule of Procedure 9(b) fraud has to be pled with particularity. Your amended complaint doesn't do that.
Rudy: Oh no we aren't trying to plead fraud in our complaint. Did I say "fraud" I meant er oh "lord" what long hearing this is . . .
Judge Brann: If the problem is that voters in some [GOP lean] counties weren't allowed to fix those ballots, isn't the remedy for those people to sue to have their votes counted, not throw out the entire election?
Kerns (rudy's co-counsel): But that would mean that would have to sue their counties! [NOTE Kerns' client is suing multiple counties in this suit]
Judge Brann: Right. Nu?
Kerns: well the Trump campaign sued to vindicate everyone's rights.
Judge Brann: But the affected voters can sue themselves if they believe themselves injured. How does the Trump campaign have standing to sue on their behalf?
Rudy: the counties that allowed cures are bad Democrat counties like *gasp* PHILADELPHIA!
Judge Brann: Ok but what's the answer to my standing question?
Rudy: Because the end result was good for Biden and bad for Trump
Judge Brann: what standard of review should apply? Strict scrutiny?
Rudy: Oh no not that. Because "this is not a fraud case"
Judge Brann: Well then it's rational basis. Doesn't the Penn conduct here qualify as "rational"?
Rudy: We believe "normal scrutiny" should apply
[Every other America lawyer: WTF is "normal scrutiny"?]
Rudy: "Maybe I don't understand what you mean by strict scrutiny."
[Every other America lawyer: Yeah no kidding - you are confusing it with the clear and convincing evidence standard for fraud]
Rudy: We don't think Penn acted rationally because different counties applied different rules for curing ballots
[Every other America lawyer: OK - isn't that why Judge Brann spent the last 10 minutes saying the remedy is for affected voters to sue the counties . . .]
So for normal people.
Fraud cases are tricky to bring. Normally when you bring a case in federal court you just need a very basic pleading and your case can't be dismissed on the pleading if there is any dispute of fact. Fraud is an exception - it has to be explained in much more detail in the pleading to survive an initial motion to dismiss. It is also typical at trial there is a higher standard of proof for fraud.
The rule is there precisely to deter people coming into court with crazy generalized accusations of FRAUD! without any proof.
"Strict scrutiny" vs "rational basis" is different - it is the standard of deference the judge gives to the state (here Penn) in reviewing their actions. Strict scrutiny means the judge will be tough on the state, rational basis means the state just has to come up with some decent reason to explain its conduct.
Rudy wanted to say his complaint should be reviewed according to the regular "non-fraud" standard but that the state's conduct should be subject to strict scrutiny. But he botched it because he hasn't been a real lawyer for 30 years.
So on election night here in Alaska the GOP ticket took a commanding lead as well as a ballot initiative trying to introduce ranked voting which was losing overwhelming 60-40% in votes. After the 156,000 absentee ballots were counted the GOP candidates all held on and won their races but...
Quote- An election reform initiative is set to become law in Alaska after the latest count of outstanding ballots.
With less than 1% of ballots still to be counted across Alaska, the "yes" vote for Ballot Measure 2 now leads by 3,756 votes or 50.5%.
The initiative will implement ranked-choice voting in Alaska, create an open primary system where the top four vote-getters move ahead to the general election, and make additional reporting requirements for some political campaigns.
Also relevant to the Giuliani side of things:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/giuliani-trump-election-pay.html
So apparently Republicans tried to pull some shenanigan in the certification process of Michigan's results, but quickly backtracked.
QuoteIn abrupt reversal, Michigan's largest county certifies election results
Allies of President Donald Trump had celebrated the initial deadlock in Wayne County, even though the dispute was highly unlikely to alter the outcome of the election.
Election officials in Michigan's largest county abruptly reversed course on Tuesday night and certified the presidential election results, with Republican members of the board backtracking after initially blocking the decision.
The two Republicans on the four-member Wayne County board of canvassers — charged with validating the vote count — initially opposed certification and raised questions about mismatches between the totals submitted by local precincts and the final canvass. Less than two hours later, the Republicans joined their Democratic colleagues to unanimously certify the tally from the county, which includes Detroit, and called for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson to audit the mismatched precincts.
The board's reversal quickly undercut celebrations among Trump allies who called the board's initial 2-2 deadlock against certifying the results the beginning of a potential chain reaction that could flip the state into the president's column — even though Joe Biden leads by more than 145,000 votes.
The board's certification vote occurred just moments after Trump himself celebrated the initial vote with a tweet that praised the Republican canvassers' "courage" for halting the certification.
"Wow! Michigan just refused to certify the election results! Having courage is a beautiful thing. The USA stands proud!" Trump tweeted, erroneously saying the whole state had not certified results. Trump continued to celebrate, even after the board had voted to certify.
Other Republicans had embraced the board's initial ruling, as well, with state GOP officials saying they were "proud" of the delay in certification and Trump's campaign describing it as an opportunity to overturn the state's election results.
Democrats had lashed out at the two Republican canvassers, Monica Palmer and William Hartmann, for what they described as a purely political decision to delay Wayne County's certification. Top Democrats in Michigan noted that the decision would have had the effect of upending the votes in Michigan's largest African-American communities, and others said it was simply a partisan effort to shore up the Trump campaign's false claims of widespread fraud.
"In refusing to approve the results of the election in Wayne County, the two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers have placed partisan politics above their legal duty to certify the election results," Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a statement.
Even before the board made its about-face, Michigan election authorities downplayed the significance of the deadlock, noting that the matter would simply move to the state canvassing board.
Benson, the secretary of state, added that similar circumstances had arisen in previous elections, with disputed canvassing results sent to the state level for recanvassing.
"It is common for some precincts in Michigan and across the country to be out of balance by a small number of votes, especially when turnout is high," Benson, a Democrat, said in a statement.
She stressed that the county board's decision "is not an indication that any votes were improperly cast or counted."
Yet Trump allies had characterized the county-level dispute as a significant victory for the president's effort to throw out results in states poised to send Biden to the White House, and they said the development could trigger a spate of draconian, highly unlikely maneuvers to put the state's 16 electoral votes in Trump's column.
For example, Trump campaign counsel Jenna Ellis said that if the vote wasn't certified at the state-level later this month, Republican state lawmakers would instead select which slate of electors — Trump's or Biden's — would cast Michigan's votes for president.
But this far-fetched scenario, which Trump allies have floated for weeks, ran into roadblocks just hours earlier.
Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, a Republican, rejected the premise outright earlier in the day on Tuesday. He told Bridge Michigan "that's not going to happen" when asked about the possibility of the legislature selecting electors.
"We are going to follow the law and follow the process," he said. "I do believe there's reason to go slow and deliberate as we evaluate the allegations that have been raised."
The state board of canvassers is scheduled to meet Wednesday afternoon.
Don't worry, they'll be better prepared next time they want to pull this. :)
The GOP is already booking landscapers for 2024.
Dutch IT guy gets swept up in the Dominion/QAnon madness
Quote from: Twitter
Somehow today a wave of Trump/QAnon/alt-right/... confused nutjobs want to follow me because they think my opposition to voting machines helps Trump ... or something. Sigh.
Sorry. Life is too short. Timeline full of BS ⟶ block.
QuoteI found out what happened with all these QAnon nuts wanting to follow me all of a sudden. It's funny.
It all started with an interview on Fox, where Lou Dobbs speaks to Sidney Powell, attorney for Michael Flynn and now also of Trump.
QuoteIn the interview, she claims to have lots of damaging information about Dominion, one of the major voting machine companies in the US. At the end of the interview, she claims they will "Release the kraken", and all will be good. (A common right-wing trope these days.)
QuoteNow to the QAnon people, nothing is just a figure of speech. Everything has hidden meaning, a message just to them. (Any psychiatrist will tell you this is a common delusional pattern.)
So, what does a good QAnon-sufferer do?
"Research"
Quote
Which is Q-speak for wildly Googling about with a manic desire to see obscure connections. And in their state of mind this is way, way too easy.
So they Google "kraken" and "voting systems" or "kraken" and "hackers" or something.
QuoteAnd ... up pops my wikipedia page, which has me appearing (in 1985) in a Dutch book called "Kraken en Computers", (which means "Hacking and computers", computerkraker was a common word for hacker back in the day.)
QuoteThe same page also talks about my involvement in showing weaknesses in voting machines and has some Wikileaks and Julian Assange thrown in for good measure.
This settles it. They decoded the secret message!1!!
I am Kraken and about to come forward to save Trump.
Sigh...
QuoteNow it is well possible that there are all sorts of interesting things to find out about Dominion and other voting machine manufacturers if one digs deep enough; this entire industry is plenty shady.
Do I think there was major fraud or that any of this will save Trump? No.
QuoteBut what it will do is set the stage for an elaborate long-term alternate reality in which their beloved dictator did win the election but an evil voting machine company swapped the votes. Which will have all sorts of interesting implications going forward.
QuoteMore broadly: the power-hungry have discovered that inequality, pandemic, climate and general dystopia is driving enough people over the edge psychologically that they become a formidable political force. A few smart ones are seeing that they created a monster, but it's too late.
QuoteIf you believe that elections should convince the losers they lost, then a mainstream thing going forward will be somehow negotiating assurances regarding election outcomes with obscenely large and well-networked crowds of psychotic people.
Quote from: Syt on November 18, 2020, 07:04:05 AM
Don't worry, they'll be better prepared next time they want to pull this. :)
Yeah, I'm not worried about this election, rather about the "boil the frog" effect of progressively undermining trust in the electoral process.
Quote from: The Brain on November 18, 2020, 07:19:18 AM
The GOP is already booking landscapers for 2024.
They've already nailed down Ritz-Carlton Bail Bonds and the Mandarin Oriental Tannery.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ
QuoteHalf of Republicans say Biden won because of a 'rigged' election: Reuters/Ipsos poll
(Reuters) - About half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump "rightfully won" the U.S. election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump's open defiance of Biden's victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public's confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans.
Altogether, 73% of those polled agreed that Biden won the election while 5% thought Trump won. But when asked specifically whether Biden had "rightfully won," Republicans showed they were suspicious about how Biden's victory was obtained.
Fifty-two percent of Republicans said that Trump "rightfully won," while only 29% said that Biden had rightfully won.
Asked why, Republicans were much more concerned than others that state vote counters had tipped the result toward Biden: 68% of Republicans said they were concerned that the election was "rigged," while only 16% of Democrats and one-third of independents were similarly worried.
Even before winning the 2016 election, Trump kept up a drumbeat of complaints about the process, claiming without evidence that it was unfair to him.
Since Biden amassed enough electoral votes to win the White House on Nov. 7, Trump has ramped up those criticisms, telling his supporters that he is the victim of widespread illegal voting.
Trump has failed to give any proof for his claims and has not been able to back them up in court, however. Republicans announced this week that they were dropping federal election lawsuits in Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The poll showed that more Americans appear to be more suspicious about the U.S. election process than they were four years ago.
Altogether, 55% of adults in the United States said they believed the Nov. 3 presidential election was "legitimate and accurate," which is down 7 points from a similar poll that ran shortly after the 2016 election. The 28% who said they thought the election was "the result of illegal voting or election rigging" is up 12 points from four years ago.
The poll showed Republicans were much more likely to be suspicious of Trump's loss this year than Democrats were when Hillary Clinton lost four years ago.
In 2016, 52% of Democrats said Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump was "legitimate and accurate," even as reports emerged of Russian attempts to influence the outcome. This year, only 26% of Republicans said they thought Trump's loss was similarly legitimate.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,346 respondents, including 598 Democrats and 496 Republicans, and has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 5 percentage points.
Yeah, USA is in real trouble with figures like that.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 18, 2020, 05:55:04 AM
Also relevant to the Giuliani side of things:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/giuliani-trump-election-pay.html
Trump: "How are the cases going"
G: "We have had great success. Don't listen to the fake news reports".
Grifters are grifting.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 18, 2020, 05:55:04 AM
Also relevant to the Giuliani side of things:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/giuliani-trump-election-pay.html
Trump: "How are the cases going"
G: "We have had great success. Don't listen to the fake news reports".
Not exactly. Trump will be happy with Rudy because Rudy is using the sweeping accusatory rhetoric Trump likes. Rudy will tell him the "obama judge" is in the bag for Biden and the whole game here is to package the case for appeal to the Supreme Court. That is what Trump wants. He things Thomas and Alito will back him and that he "bought" the 3 he appointed so they will have to rule for him.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 18, 2020, 01:39:14 AM
No transcript yet so based on second hand reports:
Rudy gives a long and florid opening statement filled with crazy accusations about massive fraud and Democratic Party conspiracies, quoting Rahm Emanuel and Mayor Daley. Maybe he thinks he's in Illinois?
Defendants then give their opening statement and make the point that none of the stuff Rudy talked about is in the amended complaint anymore.
Rudy gets back up and something resembling the following colloquy occurs:
Judge Brann: You are asking for millions of votes to be invalidated across the state. Can you tell me how this result can possibly be justified?
Rudy: You need a sweeping remedy because there is sweeping injury. Fraud fraud fraud there was massive election fraud blah blah blah (goes on)
Judge Brann: Under Federal Rule of Procedure 9(b) fraud has to be pled with particularity. Your amended complaint doesn't do that.
Rudy: Oh no we aren't trying to plead fraud in our complaint. Did I say "fraud" I meant er oh "lord" what long hearing this is . . .
Judge Brann: If the problem is that voters in some [GOP lean] counties weren't allowed to fix those ballots, isn't the remedy for those people to sue to have their votes counted, not throw out the entire election?
Kerns (rudy's co-counsel): But that would mean that would have to sue their counties! [NOTE Kerns' client is suing multiple counties in this suit]
Judge Brann: Right. Nu?
Kerns: well the Trump campaign sued to vindicate everyone's rights.
Judge Brann: But the affected voters can sue themselves if they believe themselves injured. How does the Trump campaign have standing to sue on their behalf?
Rudy: the counties that allowed cures are bad Democrat counties like *gasp* PHILADELPHIA!
Judge Brann: Ok but what's the answer to my standing question?
Rudy: Because the end result was good for Biden and bad for Trump
Judge Brann: what standard of review should apply? Strict scrutiny?
Rudy: Oh no not that. Because "this is not a fraud case"
Judge Brann: Well then it's rational basis. Doesn't the Penn conduct here qualify as "rational"?
Rudy: We believe "normal scrutiny" should apply
[Every other America lawyer: WTF is "normal scrutiny"?]
Rudy: "Maybe I don't understand what you mean by strict scrutiny."
[Every other America lawyer: Yeah no kidding - you are confusing it with the clear and convincing evidence standard for fraud]
Rudy: We don't think Penn acted rationally because different counties applied different rules for curing ballots
[Every other America lawyer: OK - isn't that why Judge Brann spent the last 10 minutes saying the remedy is for affected voters to sue the counties . . .]
This is largely spot on, I don't have a transcript either but this hearing was actually public and accessible via a conference call system you could dial into in listen-only mode (which is weird that they used that instead of some sort of streaming internet solution), as a complete layman my feeling was the judge was handling Rudy with kid gloves and Rudy seemed really out of his depth. I suspect from not being an active courtroom litigator for many years. The judge informed Rudy near the end of the hearing that he was giving them until 5PM tomorrow (now today) to file a brief in opposition to the motion to dismiss. Rudy clearly did not know what such a brief entailed or what the judge was expecting, and asked several confused questions. The judge basically ended up explaining in almost layman's terms the particulars of what he was asking, Rudy just came off as really confused and old.
A close colleague of mine, someone with very high professional standards worked with Rudy when he was US attorney in the 80s and thought the world of him. But you can't roll into a big hearing with one day on the case when you haven't litigated in a courtroom in 30 years. It's crazy that what is supposed to be the marquee case for the President of the US is being handled in such a slipshod manner.
Rudy was confused about the briefing because he isn't going to handle that - the other new law firm will. But the court did issue an order saying that Rudy had to register with the court's electronic document filing system, which is typical, but I'm pretty sure Rudy doesn't have a clue about how to do that or how to use such a system.
I know New Yorkers who had to live with him as mayor have a different take, but just echoing celed's point on Rudy's fall from 2001. I find it kind of sad watching him in the last few years and especially now.
Will they amend the biopic with James Woods to include the landscaping scene and confused court appearances?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 18, 2020, 11:14:18 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 18, 2020, 11:06:00 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 18, 2020, 05:55:04 AM
Also relevant to the Giuliani side of things:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/giuliani-trump-election-pay.html
Trump: "How are the cases going"
G: "We have had great success. Don't listen to the fake news reports".
Not exactly. Trump will be happy with Rudy because Rudy is using the sweeping accusatory rhetoric Trump likes. Rudy will tell him the "obama judge" is in the bag for Biden and the whole game here is to package the case for appeal to the Supreme Court. That is what Trump wants. He things Thomas and Alito will back him and that he "bought" the 3 he appointed so they will have to rule for him.
Packaging presumes some basis for appeal.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 18, 2020, 01:21:58 PM
A close colleague of mine, someone with very high professional standards worked with Rudy when he was US attorney in the 80s and thought the world of him. But you can't roll into a big hearing with one day on the case when you haven't litigated in a courtroom in 30 years. It's crazy that what is supposed to be the marquee case for the President of the US is being handled in such a slipshod manner.
Rudy was confused about the briefing because he isn't going to handle that - the other new law firm will. But the court did issue an order saying that Rudy had to register with the court's electronic document filing system, which is typical, but I'm pretty sure Rudy doesn't have a clue about how to do that or how to use such a system.
So what do you think of this hypothesis: Rudy is just humoring Trump and taking one for the team, because the longer he talks about how the Steiner Case is going to save Trump, the longer Trump puts off issuing his Nero Decree. My hypothesis says that Giuliani doesn't want to win, he just wants to delay Trump's despair and thus limit the damage.
Quote from: grumbler on November 18, 2020, 11:05:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 18, 2020, 01:21:58 PM
A close colleague of mine, someone with very high professional standards worked with Rudy when he was US attorney in the 80s and thought the world of him. But you can't roll into a big hearing with one day on the case when you haven't litigated in a courtroom in 30 years. It's crazy that what is supposed to be the marquee case for the President of the US is being handled in such a slipshod manner.
Rudy was confused about the briefing because he isn't going to handle that - the other new law firm will. But the court did issue an order saying that Rudy had to register with the court's electronic document filing system, which is typical, but I'm pretty sure Rudy doesn't have a clue about how to do that or how to use such a system.
So what do you think of this hypothesis: Rudy is just humoring Trump and taking one for the team, because the longer he talks about how the Steiner Case is going to save Trump, the longer Trump puts off issuing his Nero Decree. My hypothesis says that Giuliani doesn't want to win, he just wants to delay Trump's despair and thus limit the damage.
1. He's supposedly making $20,000 a day.
2. He wants to throw things in sow so much doubt that the state legislature issue their own slate of electors.
Quote from: grumbler on November 18, 2020, 11:05:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 18, 2020, 01:21:58 PM
A close colleague of mine, someone with very high professional standards worked with Rudy when he was US attorney in the 80s and thought the world of him. But you can't roll into a big hearing with one day on the case when you haven't litigated in a courtroom in 30 years. It's crazy that what is supposed to be the marquee case for the President of the US is being handled in such a slipshod manner.
Rudy was confused about the briefing because he isn't going to handle that - the other new law firm will. But the court did issue an order saying that Rudy had to register with the court's electronic document filing system, which is typical, but I'm pretty sure Rudy doesn't have a clue about how to do that or how to use such a system.
So what do you think of this hypothesis: Rudy is just humoring Trump and taking one for the team, because the longer he talks about how the Steiner Case is going to save Trump, the longer Trump puts off issuing his Nero Decree. My hypothesis says that Giuliani doesn't want to win, he just wants to delay Trump's despair and thus limit the damage.
I dunno. It's not like Rudy wasn't spouting pretty similar level nonsense before the election.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 19, 2020, 05:28:51 AM
1. He's supposedly making $20,000 a day.
Note the "supposedly." That's just a tabloid rumor, and if my hypothesis is correct that would just be to convince trump that his lawyer is good, because he is so expensive.
Quote2. He wants to throw things in sow so much doubt that the state legislature issue their own slate of electors.
That's what he says he wants, but no state legislature is agreeing. If my hypothesis is correct, then this would conform to his strategy; he's telling Trump via Fox that the Steiner Case is proceeding according to plan, when nothing is actually happening.
Quote from: Gups on November 19, 2020, 05:33:35 AM
I dunno. It's not like Rudy wasn't spouting pretty similar level nonsense before the election.
Oh, shush yourself! :P
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/19/wayne-county-rescind-certifying-election/
QuoteWayne County Republican who asked to 'rescind' her vote certifying election results says Trump called her
DETROIT — President Trump called a GOP canvassing board member in Wayne County who announced Wednesday she wanted to rescind her decision to certify the results of the presidential election, the member said in a message to The Washington Post Thursday.
"I did receive a call from President Trump, late Tuesday evening, after the meeting," Monica Palmer, one of two Republican members of the four-member Wayne County canvassing board, told The Post. "He was checking in to make sure I was safe after hearing the threats and doxing that had occurred."
The call came after an hours-long meeting on Tuesday in which the four-member canvassing board voted to certify the results of the Nov. 3 election, a key step toward finalizing President-elect Joe Biden's victory in the state.
In affidavits signed Wednesday evening, the two GOP members of the board allege they were improperly pressured into certifying the election and accused Democrats of reneging on a promise to audit votes in Detroit.
In an interview, Palmer estimated that she talked with Trump for about two minutes Tuesday. She said she felt no pressure to change her vote. Palmer has said she received messages threatening her and her family during and after the Tuesday tense meeting.
"His concern was about my safety and that was really touching. He is a really busy guy and to have his concern about my safety was appreciated," she told The Post.
Asked if they discussed the presidential vote count, she said, "It's hard for me to describe. There was a lot of adrenalin and stress going on. There were general comments about different states but we really didn't discuss the details of the certification."
Asked again about possible pressure from such a call, Palmer said, "It was not pressure. It was genuine concern for my safety."
William Hartmann, the other Republican on the board, has signed a similar affidavit, according a person familiar with the document. Hartmann did not respond to a message from The Post.
Jonathan Kinloch, a Democrat and the board's vice chairman, told The Post it's too late for the pair to reverse course, as the certified results have been sent to the secretary of state in accordance with state rules. He lashed out at the Republicans over their requests.
"Do they understand how they are making us look as a body?" he said. "We have such an amazing and important role in the democratic process, and they're turning it on its head."
At the heart of the dispute is a last-minute compromise between Kinloch and the Republicans to seek a comprehensive audit of results in the Detroit area, where the GOP members said the votes were out of balance — meaning the poll book, the official list of who voted, didn't match the number of ballots received.
Palmer and Hartmann said in their affidavits that they believed they had a firm commitment to an audit. But Palmer says in her affidavit that Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) later said she didn't view their resolution asking for an audit as binding.
"I felt misled," Palmer told The Post earlier on Wednesday, before signing the affidavit. "I stand firm in not certifying Wayne County without the audit."
Kinloch, though, said Palmer and Hartmann knew exactly what they were agreeing to on Tuesday, and the board has yet to even formally ask Benson for the audit.
Palmer "knew it wasn't binding," Kinloch said. "We just voted yesterday."
Kinloch said he and Palmer texted each other into the early hours of Wednesday, with the Democrat explaining he had support across the board for the request. But he said Palmer was aware he had not been able to directly reach the secretary of state's office on Tuesday night.
He said the two also communicated about the need to prepare a joint letter to the secretary of state to ask for the audit.
Hours before signing the affidavit, Palmer told The Post that her experience on Tuesday night had left her shaken. After first voting against certifying the results, a parade of activists and elections workers spoke to the board, with many accusing Palmer and Hartmann of racism for calling into question the results from majority-Black Detroit precincts.
"Last night was heartbreaking," Palmer told The Post. "I sat in that chair for two hours listening to people attack me" as a racist who was attempting to disenfranchise Detroit residents. She said her intentions were the opposite — but her efforts have been lost in a sea of invective that night that included death threats against her and her family.
Palmer said she and Hartmann had been concerned since the primary vote last summer that a number of precincts were out of balance. She said she never believed that corrections, which were made in some precincts, would change the vote totals in the county or the state in a way that would upend the victory for Biden, who carried Michigan by nearly 150,000 votes.
"We were not delaying the inevitable," said Palmer, referring to complaints that the GOP board members were stalling on behalf of President Trump. "We always knew that the margin of victory was such that it was not going to change the result."
After she filed her affidavit asking to rescind her vote, Kinloch accused her and Hartmann of bowing to pressure from the Republican Party and the White House, which has waged a legal campaign seeking to overturn the results of the election.
Trump supporters have attacked the decision to certify the Wayne County vote all day on Wednesday, with Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, describing criticisms of Palmer and Hartmann as "mob rule."
In her interview with The Post, Palmer put it differently. "There wasn't mob rule," she said. There was pressure to certify, but she said she didn't succumb to it. She only went forward, she said because of the promise of an audit.
Kinloch lamented the late attempt by Republicans to change their vote.
"They're playing with the vote and the will of the people," Kinloch said.
Apparently Michigan GOP state legislators are flying into Washington at Trump's request to meet with him tomorrow. Which doesn't sound great.
No. Poor guys.
Maybe they want to discuss amongst them who would have been publicly executed had the militias succeeded in taking over the state capitol.
QuoteDisturbing new details in alleged plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
CHICAGO (WLS) -- There is new and disturbing information in the alleged militia plot against the governor of Michigan.
The 14 men charged had far more violent plans than just a kidnapping, according to federal and state authorities.
New filings claim there was a Plan B the militiamen had drawn up, that involved a takeover of the Michigan capitol building by 200 combatants who would stage a week-long series of televised executions of public officials.
And, according to government documents now on file in lower Michigan court, there was also a Plan C -- burning down the state house, leaving no survivors.
In southern Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon the 14th man charged in the plot, Brian Higgins, was closer to extradition to Michigan, even as prosecutors there piled on new, even more outrageous accusations against the men.
Higgins appeared from his home for the video court hearing.
"My client is going to leave this house when this hearing concludes. And unless you tell him otherwise, he's going to go straight to the sheriff's department and turn himself in," said Higgins attorney, Christopher Van Wagner.
The latest accusations include the charged threat that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was to be kidnapped and possibly killed; now government court records cite subplots to stage an armed takeover of the state capitol in Lansing and televise the executions of politicians.
In an interview with the ABC 7 Chicago I-Team last week, Michigan's attorney general, who's prosecuting some of the militiamen, discussed the domestic terror threat.
"We are one of the few states that does not ban guns in our state capitol building, and clearly there have been threats made on the lives of our legislators; you probably saw the pictures back from in April, where we had armed gunman, some of them, same defendants in this case, that were hovering over state senators with long guns, screaming and yelling at them as they were deliberating, as they were discussing legislation and as they were voting, so that remains a big concern to me in a very scary scenario," said Dana Nessel.
That fear bleeds over to Illinois. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker mentioned the Michigan case during Tuesday's COVID-19 update.
"We have threats that stream into my office daily, while we have watched the kidnapping plot against the Michigan governor unfold just a state away," said Pritzker.
Despite the violent nature of the charges, including an alleged plan to hold a mock treason trial for the governor of Michigan once she was kidnapped, several of the defendants have had bond reductions and are now free.
Higgins' attorney suggested in court that he may challenge extradition altogether at Thursday's bond hearing in Wisconsin.
Quote from: grumbler on November 18, 2020, 11:05:23 PM
So what do you think of this hypothesis: Rudy is just humoring Trump and taking one for the team, because the longer he talks about how the Steiner Case is going to save Trump, the longer Trump puts off issuing his Nero Decree. My hypothesis says that Giuliani doesn't want to win, he just wants to delay Trump's despair and thus limit the damage.
it's possible but I think Rudy's far gone. He's ODed on his own BS supply.
He's heading for Venus (Venus).
The Senate Majority Leader in Michigan already went on record saying the legislature would not try to bypass the election results.
Now the the Battle of the Wayne County Canvassers ended with a quick retreat of the would-be coup plotters, it looks like Michigan will certify its results. Once the vote is certified it is game over. Under the Count Act Congress must accept certified results signed by the governor and under the Constitution the legislature cant change the method of selection after the election has been held.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 19, 2020, 12:52:17 PM
The Senate Majority Leader in Michigan already went on record saying the legislature would not try to bypass the election results.
That's a huge relief to hear in a democratic society. I hope someone will also go on record to affirm that summary executions are off the table.
This clip:
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1329486814558752769?s=20
:blink:
I guess you don't need the Bolsheviks or the Soviet Union to have a Red Scare.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2020, 02:18:59 PM
This clip:
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1329486814558752769?s=20
:blink:
I couldn't make out which landscaping firm this was.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2020, 02:18:59 PM
This clip:
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1329486814558752769?s=20
:blink:
I'm sure senior Republican politicians and office holders will denounce this charade any time soon. :)
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1329493386999586817?s=20
Quote"Your question is fundamentally flawed, when you're asking, 'where's the evidence?' You clearly don't understand the legal process" -- Jenna Ellis
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1329495470159392769?s=20
"The censorship that's going on in this country right now by big tech and by big media is almost as dangerous as the election fraud that we're revealing. Maybe just as dangerous. We're headed to a very bad place. And it is not inappropriate that a Venezuelan company counted our votes." - Rudy Giuliani
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 02:35:44 PM
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1329495470159392769?s=20
"The censorship that's going on in this country right now by big tech and by big media is almost as dangerous as the election fraud that we're revealing. Maybe just as dangerous. We're headed to a very bad place. And it is not inappropriate that a Venezuelan company counted our votes." - Rudy Giuliani
A Venezuelan company? I thought we had vote counters hired by the counties to do that.
Rudy's Soros-bashing seemed a bit low-energy. Surely he can shout more and use more arm gestures?
This really isn't buttressing my faith in America.
And the official GOP Twitter account is pushing this nonsense - which feels a little alarming:
https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1329490975266398210?s=20
Edit: And for all the doubts about the phrase "fascist", the language here is fascist.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 03:02:02 PM
This really isn't buttressing my faith in America.
Yeah. I mean the GOP actually did pretty well in this election, exceeding expectations in many ways. So what would they do in an election they got crushed in?
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 03:02:02 PM
This really isn't buttressing my faith in America.
Yeah. I mean the GOP actually did pretty well in this election, exceeding expectations in many ways. So what would they do in an election they got crushed in?
Actually, them having done well might bolster them, giving them the feeling it just needs a "little nudge"? A resounding defeat might have deflated them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/19/wayne-county-rescind-certifying-election/
QuoteTrump invites Michigan Republican leaders to meet him at White House as he escalates attempts to overturn election results
DETROIT — President Trump has invited the leaders of Michigan's Republican-controlled state legislature to meet him in Washington on Friday, according to a person familiar with those plans, as the president and his allies continue an extraordinary campaign to overturn the results of an election he lost.
Trump's campaign has suffered defeats in courtrooms across the country in its efforts to allege irregularities with the ballot-counting process, and has failed to muster any evidence of the widespread fraud that the president continues to claim tainted the 2020 election.
Trump lost Michigan by a wide margin: At present, he trails President-Elect Joe Biden in the state by 157,000 votes. Earlier this week, the state's Republican Senate majority leader said an effort to have legislators throw out election results was "not going to happen."
But the president now appears to be using the full weight of his office to challenge the election results, as he and his allies reach out personally to state and local officials in an intensifying effort to halt the certification of the vote in key battleground states.
In an incendiary news conference in Washington, Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York mayor who is now serving as Trump's lead attorney, made baseless claims that Biden had orchestrated a national conspiracy to rig the vote.
Trump's team appear to be increasingly focused on Michigan as a place where Republican officials — on the state's Board of Canvassers and in the legislature — might be persuaded to overturn the results.
Earlier this week, Trump called a member of Wayne County's Board of Canvassers after a contentious meeting in which she first refused, and then agreed, to certify election results from the state's largest county. She subsequently released an affidavit seeking to "rescind" her vote for certification — a move that the secretary of state's office said was impossible.
Legal experts condemned the president's actions, saying he was trying to use the power of his office to alter the vote.
"To bring the weight of the White House and the presidency onto an individual county canvassing board commissioner about what to do with certification is an incredible assault on the democratic process," said Richard H. Pildes, a constitutional law professor at New York University. "No question about that."
Joanna Lydgate, the national director of the Voter Protection Program, said that "there is no basis in fact or law for failing to certify the election."
"The president's unpatriotic behavior is reaching new heights with summoning state legislative officials to the White House," she said. "But the legislature has no role in certification, as its leaders have already publicly admitted. This raises serious legal and ethical concerns about the president's conduct — but it will not alter the outcome of the election."
Despite that, Trump and his allies have spent the last week making baseless allegations of fraud in lawsuits, news conferences and tweets — seemingly probing to find a judge or an elected official who would accept them.
At the news conference in Washington on Thursday, Giuliani claimed without evidence that the campaign could roll back Biden's wins in multiple states, including Michigan.
"It changes the result of the election in Michigan if you take out Wayne County," he said. Wayne County includes Detroit, the state's heavily Democratic, majority-Black largest city.
Also on Thursday, Trump's efforts seemed to have gained some traction, with the news that Michigan's GOP leaders appear willing to meet with him.
The Detroit News reported that the state GOP legislative leaders who plan to visit the White House on Friday are Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey and House Speaker Lee Chatfield.
Earlier this week, Shirkey said that Biden is the president-elect, and that an effort to award Michigan's electoral votes to Trump was "not going to happen," according to the news outlet Bridge Michigan.
Shirkey's office did not respond to requests for comment from The Washington Post. Gideon D'Assandro, communications director for the Michigan House speaker, declined to comment Thursday.
In Michigan, the high-water mark for Trump's efforts so far came Tuesday night, during an hours-long meeting of the Wayne County board of canvassers. The board's two GOP members voted against certifying the county's results, which overwhelmingly favored Biden. But then, after three hours of angry comments from the public, the two GOP members changed their minds and voted to certify the results.
After the meeting, Trump called one of the two GOP members, Monica Palmer. Palmer said that Trump did not pressure her to change her vote.
"His concern was about my safety, and that was really touching. He is a really busy guy, and to have his concern about my safety was appreciated," she told The Post.
"It was not pressure. It was genuine concern for my safety," Palmer said.
After that, however, Palmer and the board's other GOP member changed their minds again: On Wednesday, they signed affidavits saying they wanted to "rescind" their votes. The two said they were improperly pressured into certifying the election and accused Democrats of reneging on a promise to audit votes in Detroit.
William Hartmann, the other Republican on the board, has signed a similar affidavit, according a person familiar with the document. Hartmann did not respond to a message from The Post.
Jonathan Kinloch, a Democratic member of the board, lamented the late attempt by Republicans to change their vote.
"They're playing with the vote and the will of the people," Kinloch said.
The Michigan Secretary of State's office, which oversees elections, said Thursday that there is no legal mechanism for Palmer and Hartmann to rescind their votes now. "Their job is done, and the next step in the process is for the Board of State Canvassers to meet and certify," said Tracy Wimmer, a spokeswoman for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D).
Palmer and Hartmann said they had agreed to certify Wayne County's results on the condition that they be audited by state authorities, to resolve small errors in the counts of voters at some Detroit precincts. The number of votes affected is believed to be in the hundreds, far less than Biden's margin of victory in Michigan.
On Thursday, Benson's office said it would be conducting an audit of votes statewide and in Wayne County and other jurisdictions "where the data shows notable clerical errors" — but only after the election results are certified.
Palmer did not respond to questions asking whether that audit assuaged her concerns. She has said she does not doubt that Biden won Michigan but wants to be sure that clerical errors are fixed.
Also on Thursday, the Trump campaign dropped a lawsuit it had filed in federal court to block Michigan from certifying its election results. In explaining the move, Trump's lawyers said — incorrectly — that the Wayne County board had voted not to certify the county's results.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, there were signs of a potential delay in vote certification in one pro-Trump county.
Supervisors in rural Mohave County, a Republican stronghold bisected by the Grand Canyon, were set to canvass their county vote at a public meeting on Monday. Instead, they decided to delay their vote and take it up again on Nov. 23 — the deadline for certification.
The supervisors agreed that they didn't question whether the results in their own county were accurate. Instead, one GOP supervisor said, they wanted to show solidarity with the president's challenges elsewhere.
"It has nothing to do with our results," Supervisor Hildy Angius said in explaining her vote. "It's more of a big picture sort of thing."
Chairwoman Jean Bishop initially voted to certify the vote on Nov. 16 but then changed her mind, siding with those who wanted a delay.
"To not canvass our vote makes no sense unless you're saying we're trying to make a statement to support the state party. Which makes it sort of political — but I guess it is political," she said.
The move to delay the vote was introduced by Supervisor Ron Gould, a former state senator who said he fear that canvassing the vote would foreclose Republicans' options to challenge the statewide election results. "If we go ahead and canvass the election, then we're saying we're done, and that puts a different legal level on it," Gould said at Monday's meeting.
Trump trails Biden by more than 10,000 votes in Arizona. Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has repeatedly defended the integrity of the election and said she will certify the statewide results.
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 03:22:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 03:02:02 PM
This really isn't buttressing my faith in America.
Yeah. I mean the GOP actually did pretty well in this election, exceeding expectations in many ways. So what would they do in an election they got crushed in?
Actually, them having done well might bolster them, giving them the feeling it just needs a "little nudge"? A resounding defeat might have deflated them.
It certainly makes doubling down on Trumpism the way forward for the GOP. That's where the votes are.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 03:02:02 PM
This really isn't buttressing my faith in America.
Yeah. I mean the GOP actually did pretty well in this election, exceeding expectations in many ways. So what would they do in an election they got crushed in?
For me the problem is that we have one of the major political parties going all out on overturning an election. That's very concerning. The logical continuation of all this very distressing. If their default stance is "The only legitimate elections are the ones we win", they are going to stark asking themselves "Why do we have elections anyway?"
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2020, 03:05:20 PM
And the official GOP Twitter account is pushing this nonsense - which feels a little alarming:
https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1329490975266398210?s=20
Edit: And for all the doubts about the phrase "fascist", the language here is fascist.
As image for people who don't want to click the link.
(https://i.postimg.cc/j2jG295J/omgop.jpg)
At any rate, if Biden gets sworn in in January, the narrative for the next 4 years will be that he is an illegitimate president who stole the election with his secret cabal from Real Americans.
Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police.
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 03:50:22 PM
As image for people who don't want to click the link.
(https://i.postimg.cc/j2jG295J/omgop.jpg)
Fair although some of the language they've omitted is shocking: "this is stunning, heartbreaking, infuriating and the most unpatriotic acts I can even imagine for people in this country to have participated in in any way, shape or form. And I want the American people to know right now that we will not be intimidated. American patriots are fed up with the corruption from the local level to the highest level of our government and we are going to take this country back. We are not going to be intimidated. We are not going to back down. We are going to clean this mess up now." (then the rest of the quote they've flagged).
With demographic trends working in favor of the GOP (the number of ignorant, stupid, and evil people is steadily going up) the next decades will be hard for non-nutters.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police.
Very nice people on both sides.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 04:01:41 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police.
Very nice people on both sides.
And those nice people probably need to monitored and held in check by law enforcement. I don't think large militias of "patriots" try to "take back the country" suggest that this is the time to massively cut back on state security funding. Maybe you disagree?
What if those nutcases, er...sorry very nice people, had kidnapped the governor of Michigan because we had slashed funding?
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 04:02:40 PM
And those nice people probably need to monitored and held in check by law enforcement.
I am sure there is a meaningful comparison to be made between a progressive movement that seeks the end of police brutality and an actual fascist movement at the heart of the US's mainstream party that currently holds the Presidency and the Senate, but it somehow escapes me.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 04:04:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 04:02:40 PM
And those nice people probably need to monitored and held in check by law enforcement.
I am sure there is a meaningful comparison to be made between a progressive movement that seeks the end of police brutality and an actual fascist movement at the heart of the US's mainstream party that currently holds the Presidency and the Senate, but it somehow escapes me.
Ok so how do we counter an actual fascist movement then? Leftwing private militias or how about trained professionals?
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2020, 03:05:20 PM
And the official GOP Twitter account is pushing this nonsense - which feels a little alarming:
https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1329490975266398210?s=20
Edit: And for all the doubts about the phrase "fascist", the language here is fascist.
Sidney Flynn also represents Michael Flynn whose gambit of tearing up his own plea agreement on the assurance that a corrupt DOJ would follow the Fuhrer's order to dismiss the case is not looking the most brilliant strategic move right now. Safe to say whatever AG Biden names is going to take a different view of the case and withdraw the motion to dismiss.
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
A substantial amount of those trained professionals seem quite sympathetic to what the GOP is doing.
They are still trained and have a mission to enforce the law and an obligation to obey orders from elected officials. They need to be reformed and held accountable but they are still preferable to empowering private violence.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 04:10:03 PM
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
A substantial amount of those trained professionals seem quite sympathetic to what the GOP is doing.
They are still trained and have a mission to enforce the law and an obligation to obey orders from elected officials. They need to be reformed and held accountable but they are still preferable to empowering private violence.
That they do, and I hope they will.
Remember when "conservatives" pretended to be level-headed and mocked Hillary Clinton for talking about a vast rightwing conspiracy? Ah, those were the days...
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 04:07:18 PM
Ok so how do we counter an actual fascist movement then? Leftwing private militias or how about trained professionals?
This is just a bad faith argument. No one has currently defunded the police on the basis of the protest slogans of last spring. The threat posed by the Republicans does not lie in the future when police is defunded, but in the present when it is clearly not. (Not to mention that the currently funded police is liable, considering the sort of rhetoric that comes out of their unions, to actually volunteer to defend that fascist movement).
At the current time, the best way to fight the Republicans is 1) take the threat seriously. Which few people seem willing to do. 2) Put pressure on Democrats to take the threat seriously and use the tools at their disposal within Congress to push back. Which few of them seem willing to do. 3) Engage in local politics: the case of Wayne County shows that wobbly fascists can be kept in check and are still susceptible to pressure. 4) Contact local grassroots Democrats and volunteer time and effort. Keep an eye for local attempts at overturning results. Continuously demand to know where people stand on the matter and push back against attempts to equivocate.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 04:04:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 04:02:40 PM
And those nice people probably need to monitored and held in check by law enforcement.
I am sure there is a meaningful comparison to be made between a progressive movement that seeks the end of police brutality and an actual fascist movement at the heart of the US's mainstream party that currently holds the Presidency and the Senate, but it somehow escapes me.
They both have been accused of defacing the exterior walls of landscaping companies.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police.
Valmy, FFS, sometimes it's okay to say something critical of one side without searching for something to balance it. Come on, people, support me here, tell Valmy it's okay. We need an intervention here.
The implied equivalence went from being annoying to being downright offensive in this post. I know that wasn't your intent, but that's how it comes out. The people with actual power trying to overturn the election results in no way deserve to share the sentence with a group of impractical morons without any power to implement their stupidity.
Quote from: Syt on November 19, 2020, 02:30:32 PM
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1329493386999586817?s=20
Quote"Your question is fundamentally flawed, when you're asking, 'where's the evidence?' You clearly don't understand the legal process" -- Jenna Ellis
There is a kernel of truth here - the courts haven't demanded that they present evidence of fraud because the court cases the campaign has brought don't allege fraud occurred. You don't have to prove what you don't dare to present to a court in the first place for fear of being sanctioned.
Quote from: Valmy on November 19, 2020, 03:55:12 PM
Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police.
I mean are those nutcases representing Biden or the House or Senate leadership? Or even the Democrat Twitter account?
Hard to say what the biggest lie of that crazy press conference was but I'm going to go with Jenna Eliis saying "this is an elite strikeforce team". (it was right after she demanded the press print the evidence they were presenting and then said they weren't presenting any evidence).
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
Hint to Jenna Ellis: if you want to convince people how super elite you are, maybe your professional bio shouldn't contain two paragraphs about your internships, clerkships and experience as a contract attorney, and only one sentence about the rest of your legal experience. It looks like an OK resume for someone trying to get hired as a 1st year associate, not the person running point for the legal equivalent of Seal Team Six (may they rest in peace).
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
Okay - I can sympathise with that argument. But the Democrat candidate was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (who spent a significant part of the primaries being attacked by the left for being a "cop"). The Republican candidate was out suggesting he wouldn't accept the results of votes that go against him and would push baseless allegations of fraud which has happened. I don't think you can be equally scared of left-wing nutcases with no positions of power in the Democrats versus the Republican nutcase being the Presidential candidate unless you're sort of comfortable with the Republican.
But that wasn't what I was saying because I read Valmy's post as about now and the future :blush:
Edit: And incidentally I personally feel less sanguine about this situation. All coups start with ridiculous plots that are unlikely to succeed - and that's how they end, unless they start succeeding. And there are quite a lot of people who are in on this now, or (as has been the norm in the Trump era) mutedly expressing their concern in anonymous briefings to prestigious newspapers.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
You might be missing the next step where Valmy equated that to a sitting President actively subverting the democratic process. There might, just might, be a difference between those two things.
Although I take JR's point. There were likely landscaping store exteriors harmed by both groups.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 19, 2020, 04:48:48 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
Okay - I can sympathise with that argument. But the Democrat candidate was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (who spent a significant part of the primaries being attacked by the left for being a "cop"). The Republican candidate was out suggesting he wouldn't accept the results of votes that go against him and would push baseless allegations of fraud which has happened. I don't think you can be equally scared of left-wing nutcases with no positions of power in the Democrats versus the Republican nutcase being the Presidential candidate unless you're sort of comfortable with the Republican.
But that wasn't what I was saying because I read Valmy's post as about now and the future :blush:
Edit: And incidentally I personally feel less sanguine about this situation. All coups start with ridiculous plots that are unlikely to succeed - and that's how they end, unless they start succeeding. And there are quite a lot of people who are in on this now, or (as has been the norm in the Trump era) mutedly expressing their concern in anonymous briefings to prestigious newspapers.
I also read Valmy's post about "taking advantage of this" as being about in future elections, as opposed to countering current Republican insanity.
And I agree that there is increasing cause for concern as Republicans start to scrape the bottom of the legal barrel and dredge up incompetent lawyers who have no qualms about trashing their own non-existent legal ethics. As far as Joe Republican knows, these lawyers must be at least capable because they are working for the highest levels of his party.
This is The Big Lie, all over again. Nothing stops The Big Lie until foreign soldiers raise their flags over the ruins of the capital buildings. Joe republican will now believe that voting cannot deliver honest results, no matter what the actual facts say. Democracy dies in front of Klieg lights.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 17, 2020, 01:57:29 PM
AFAIK the only states that currently have active lawsuits from the Trump campaign are Michigan and Pennsylvania. Arizona was dropped, Georgia mooted by the recount. Assuming the GA recount doesn't affect the result, taking Michigan and PA off the table would bring Biden down to 270 - i.e. he still wins. So as of now there is no legal path that bars Biden even assuming total victory in the Michigan and Penn cases. Which is a very big assumption given that the MI case was basically DOA when filed and the hot mess of the Penn case could be failing right now in court.
Lawsuit was dropped in MI but Trump has asked to meet the Republican legislature tonight.
Good chance they will decline the meeting.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2020, 05:51:05 PM
Good chance they will decline the meeting.
It's the House Speaker and the State Senate Majority leader, and they both said they're going.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-invites-michigan-gop-white-house-6ab95edd3373ecc9607381175d6f3328
Shady shit.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
It is amazing how the right can always find cover for their votes.
A novel solution would be to join the Republican party and move it back to the centre. Perhaps the Democratic party should just disband itself and join the Republican party en mass. It would also effectively internalise the divisions between the parties, within the ruling party.
Oddly, it would not be all that different from how it was at the start.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
It doesn't matter what Democrats say because Republicans will claim that Democrats said whatever the Republicans need them to have said. Appeals to moderation are ineffective when the other side is delusional.
The Left: We want to defund the police!
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
The Left: We don't want to defund the police, we just want to redirect them.
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
The Left: Okay, we don't want to do anything with law enforcement. Police can do whatever the fuck they want.
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 19, 2020, 04:39:52 PM
You people are missing Valmys point. It doesn't matter that the defund crowd doesn't have the power to do anything, they still scared off enough voters that there was no blue wave.
It doesn't matter what Democrats say because Republicans will claim that Democrats said whatever the Republicans need them to have said. Appeals to moderation are ineffective when the other side is delusional.
The Left: We want to defund the police!
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
The Left: We don't want to defund the police, we just want to redirect them.
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
The Left: Okay, we don't want to do anything with law enforcement. Police can do whatever the fuck they want.
The Right: Democrats rape children and eat their blood.
the left did say they want to defund the police, and then the NYT gave them a fig leaf by saying it actually meant redirecting funds to social services resources more appropriate to deal with some issues (like mentally ill people in crisis) they came back saying "no we actually mean defund the police!".
They have only themselves to blame for the fiasco of this election, again, just like the previous one in 2016.
:huh: I don't think you understood my point.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 09:19:55 PM
:huh: I don't think you understood my point.
I understood your point and it's not true, at least in this case. Protesters said defund the police and Republicans said "they want to defund the police!" AOC proposed a Green New Deal and Republicans said "they want a Green New Deal!"
Or rather:
"Defund the police": OMG ANARCHY
"Green New Deal": OMG COMMUNISM
Moderates: the esteemed members of the fascist party have a point.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 09:49:45 PM
Or rather:
"Defund the police": OMG ANARCHY
"Green New Deal": OMG COMMUNISM
Moderates: the esteemed members of the fascist party have a point.
They must have run different attack ads in Missouri than they did in Iowa.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2020, 09:36:05 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 09:19:55 PM
:huh: I don't think you understood my point.
I understood your point and it's not true, at least in this case. Protesters said defund the police and Republicans said "they want to defund the police!" AOC proposed a Green New Deal and Republicans said "they want a Green New Deal!"
And Biden said neither, and explicitly said he did not back either position, yet the Republican attacks on him didn't take that into consideration. It certainly didn't dissuade Republicans from claiming he raped children and ate their blood, a lie that half of Republicans believe.
What position on policing would rebut the child rape and blood eating claims?
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 09:49:45 PM
Or rather:
"Defund the police": OMG ANARCHY
"Green New Deal": OMG COMMUNISM
Moderates: the esteemed members of the fascist party have a point.
I'm sure at least some moderates are smart enough to see the problem with "defund the police" even before fascists point it out.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 09:59:00 PM
It certainly didn't dissuade Republicans from claiming he raped children and ate their blood, a lie that half of Republicans believe.
By any chance do you have a cite for this startling claim?
Quote from: DGuller on November 19, 2020, 10:01:11 PM
I'm sure at least some moderates are smart enough to see the problem with "defund the police" even before fascists point it out.
Sure. And I think I am smart enough to see the problem with whatever other "moderate" position is touted as the perennial best thing since sliced bread. The problem is not whether one may or may not disagree with whatever progressive policy is put forward. It's that, in their rush to appear reasonable and wise, "moderates" end up deferring to the essence of the Republican caricature. That's how Republicans have been able to more or less dominate the political discourse for the last 30 years.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 11:25:14 PM
Sure. And I think I am smart enough to see the problem with whatever other "moderate" position is touted as the perennial best thing since sliced bread. The problem is not whether one may or may not disagree with whatever progressive policy is put forward. It's that, in their rush to appear reasonable and wise, "moderates" end up deferring to the essence of the Republican caricature. That's how Republicans have been able to more or less dominate the political discourse for the last 30 years.
How have moderates deferred to the Republican caricature that God will smite the earth if we allow gay marriage, or the Republican caricature that global warming is a hoax dreamed up by a bunch of self-serving scientists? I could go on.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 19, 2020, 10:06:09 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 09:59:00 PM
It certainly didn't dissuade Republicans from claiming he raped children and ate their blood, a lie that half of Republicans believe.
By any chance do you have a cite for this startling claim?
Sure. https://civiqs.com/reports/2020/9/2/report-americans-pessimistic-on-time-frame-for-coronavirus-recovery
QuoteQAnon, a far-right conspiracy theory about "deep state elites" has extensive support among Republican voters. One in three Republicans (33%) believe that the QAnon theory is mostly true. Another 23% of Republicans say that some parts of the QAnon conspiracy are true. Only 13% of Republicans think that it is not true at all. In contrast, 72% of Democrats say the QAnon conspiracy theory is not true at all.
Awareness of QAnon has grown substantially since one year ago. In July 2019, 35% of Americans had never heard of QAnon -- that number has fallen to 14% now. For Republicans, greater awareness has led to greater support. The percentage of Republicans who believe that the QAnon theory is partially or mostly true has grown from 46% one year ago to 56% today.
It didn't ask what they thought the Qanon conspiracy was.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnJw_ARXUAMiSO9?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnJw_ASWEAEzH0n?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnJw_ATWMAALFn_?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 01:37:20 AM
It didn't ask what they thought the Qanon conspiracy was.
Regardless, that's still a disturbing number of people believing in a high level deep state elites conspiracy.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 01:37:20 AM
It didn't ask what they thought the Qanon conspiracy was.
True, but they also asked about police violence without asking the respondent to define the word "police".
I reckon most people know that one.
We're just doing the re-hash of Dems need to act like saints to get conservative voters to not act like assholes. But if conservative voters are happy to buy into things that aren't even true (QAnon, the election wasn't free and fair, Joe Biden is a socialist) can that really matter?
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
If a milquetoast, middle of the road, lowest common denominator presidential candidate only barely manages to eke out a win against Trump and the current GOP then I'm not sure catering to the crazy "other half" is the way forward, tbh.
They have been catered to for far too long imo. Less than four years to the next election and about half the US population appear to be cultists; Biden has a monumental task ahead of him.....assuming the attempted coup is not successful.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
I'm not sure it really matters what they say, beyond as a figleaf for conservatives to hide behind as reason for their assholish behavior.
Biden has said nothing akin to being a socialist and yet endless attacks he is a secret socialist. Standards only seem to come into play for Dems and their supporters.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 20, 2020, 03:56:06 AM
They have been catered to for far too long imo. Less than four years to the next election and about half the US population appear to be cultists; Biden has a monumental task ahead of him.....assuming the attempted coup is not successful.
:yes: :(
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
:lol:
Quote from: katmai on November 20, 2020, 05:22:53 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
:lol:
Yeah, that's actually what Trump and the Republicans have done.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
How do you reach out to people who think you are a child-molesting blood-eater? I'd really like to know. I don't know a path forward anymore. I do know that trying find common ground with people who live in an alternate reality is a fools errand.
The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".
The people who vote for Trump are legitimate, freedom-voting voters who must be counted. The people who voted against Trump did not vote for freedom are illegitimate. The only way that "freedom" can lose is by "stunning, heartbreaking, infuriating [...] most unpatriotic" acts of fraud. It's "corruption from the local level to the highest level of the government". If it wasn't for that fraud and corruption Trump won by a landslide, not least because his voters are voting for "freedom".
This is the delegitimising and othering in a way that is really extreme and dangerous.
I quite liked Romney's statement - but I'm starting to feel it's at the point where people probably need to consider resignations/breaking away from the GOP.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
It seems to write itself off. I have no idea how you're supposed to reach a death cult.
What do people think Biden should do?
So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.
I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now? :mellow:
I thought it was apparent that the election wasn't actually all that close, though. I mean, the guy won Georgia and Arizona, states that hadn't voted for the D in decades. Yes the margins were small in several states but it was a massive turnout election for both sides, which people seem to be forgetting already. And Joe looks like he'll be getting north of 50% of the national popular vote against an incumbent President, something only Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt have done in modern times. What Joe Biden just accomplished is pretty difficult.
I think it's a clear rejection of Donald Trump. Not quite the 400 electoral vote landslide people dreamt about, but the rejection of the President is there.
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 19, 2020, 04:15:15 PM
This is just a bad faith argument.
It may be a bad argument but it is not a bad faith one.
QuoteNo one has currently defunded the police on the basis of the protest slogans of last spring.
Well we defunded in Austin, you know where I live, as a reaction to that. But I like to think it is more complicated than that but naturally you get a radically different take wherever you look.
QuoteThe threat posed by the Republicans does not lie in the future when police is defunded, but in the present when it is clearly not.
I KNOW THAT!! That is why I am pissed off. These guys need to pay for their extremism and it looks really bad that we will be able to do it. We had made encouraging progress in 2018, not nearly as much as I hoped but damn this election shows some pretty shitty trends. We are clearly not going to recover from the disaster of 2010 on a state level any time soon. We are looking to lose House Seats in fucking California and New York and somehow lost one in New Jersey during the term. A Democrat from New Jersey just figured the Democratic Brand was toxic to his election chances so he jumped ship to the fucking Republicans and won easily (or something like that). Damn they should be jumping ship to us. Fuck. Hardly any have. It is crazy. The GOP brand is so non-toxic that you can easily win Governor of Massachusetts and New Hampshire and win a Senate seat in Maine in blue states and not feel the need to jump parties to save your ass.
Quote(Not to mention that the currently funded police is liable, considering the sort of rhetoric that comes out of their unions, to actually volunteer to defend that fascist movement).
I have already addressed this point.
QuoteAt the current time, the best way to fight the Republicans is 1) take the threat seriously. Which few people seem willing to do.
Ok so if we are taking this threat seriously we should talk about weakening the state's monopoly on force? And it is a real shit sandwich to because:
1. This is just bad politics. You couldn't pick a worse slogan.
2. It strikes me as really bad policy, especially under the circumstances.
3. This is not something Democrats can possibly disown or distance themselves from. These urban activists and their allies are the Democratic Party for the most part. We need them. There is no other option. Under current conditions if the Democrats are not getting big turnouts and winning by overwhelming margins in these urban areas they have no chance in most states.
Quote2) Put pressure on Democrats to take the threat seriously and use the tools at their disposal within Congress to push back. Which few of them seem willing to do.
Well this is a two tier problem:
1. Hard to do that when we have a tiny majority. There are going to be a few members in difficult districts who need to be protected from anything even the least bit controversial.
2. The Democrats do not have the power to do that in the way Congress currently works. The Speaker introduces the legislation and it gets an up or down vote with no possibility for amendments. The members of the house get maybe three days if they are lucky to read the whole thousand page bill or whatever and then they just have to do a yes or no vote. Most of them do not even bother and just take their party leader's word for what the bill does. That is just the way things are once Paul Ryan changed things back in 2017 and Pelosi has kept it going. So the only person you need to put pressure on is Pelosi because only she matters. So who actually represents you does not matter nearly as much as it used to.
Quote3) Engage in local politics: the case of Wayne County shows that wobbly fascists can be kept in check and are still susceptible to pressure.
That I have done. We kicked out our local nutball Sheriff and the first Democrat in decades in my county has won a countywide office. We booted a crazy right wing nut off the city council. We have one more nutball left to go. But the news was not all good. We did not do as well in other areas as we did in 2018 which is kind of the story in suburbs throughout Texas. We did...ok. We held our own. We did not lose any House Seats (which might be more than I can say for fucking California and New York), we held on to our gains in the 2018 State House and flipped one State Senate Seat. But we lost every statewide race and are still the minority party everywhere. So a very expensive draw. Obviously disappointing only because we hoped for more. But considering how shittily bad this went for Democrats in other states I guess we should be rejoicing.
Quote4) Contact local grassroots Democrats and volunteer time and effort. Keep an eye for local attempts at overturning results. Continuously demand to know where people stand on the matter and push back against attempts to equivocate.
I mean the Republicans like the results here but I will keep my eyes out.
Oh and here comes the GOP to save the day: https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-greg-abbott-knocks-austin-for-defunding-police-says-state-may-take-over-policing-in-some-areas/
Fuck me.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:33:26 AM
What do people think Biden should do?
So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.
I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now? :mellow:
I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 20, 2020, 07:47:59 AM
I thought it was apparent that the election wasn't actually all that close, though. I mean, the guy won Georgia and Arizona, states that hadn't voted for the D in decades. Yes the margins were small in several states but it was a massive turnout election for both sides, which people seem to be forgetting already. And Joe looks like he'll be getting north of 50% of the national popular vote against an incumbent President, something only Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt have done in modern times. What Joe Biden just accomplished is pretty difficult.
I think it's a clear rejection of Donald Trump. Not quite the 400 electoral vote landslide people dreamt about, but the rejection of the President is there.
Joe Biden did well. But so did the Republicans. That is the problem.
And past history suggests we are ripe to get trounced in the midterms. I find it hard to believe a 1994 or 2010 result in the cards considering how much more polarized the country is now and I just don't think the electorate is as likely to swing that far in one direction again but it is not like they need that kind of result. Just a modest win and they hold all the cards. But maybe it will be different this time. I mean surely there was some point in the distant past where the President's party came out ahead in the midterm.
And Nancy Pelosi, who captained this ship into this mini iceberg, is going to probably continue to be Speaker. I just feel like we need more radical action than that to get this thing turned around. Surely there is somebody out there who deserves a shot at being Speaker yes?
What I"m surprised by is how little the supposed "law and order" types care about either one. I'm not surprised that they are happy to forget the law part as long as they get to keep order. The willingness to suck up to the agent of chaos that is Trump though is really weird. Maybe it ties into fantasies not about having order but getting to forcibly maintain order by making sure that there is a threat to order in the first place.
Quote from: frunk on November 20, 2020, 08:37:52 AM
What I"m surprised by is how little the supposed "law and order" types care about either one.
You clearly think much more of them than I do.
"the nation cannot be in opposition" was Orban's line to de facto declare his second consecutive election loss in 2006 illegitimate on the grounds that those who support the left were not part of the nation. We know where it went from there.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
The Left: Okay, we don't want to do anything with law enforcement. Police can do whatever the fuck they want.
I mean we desperately need law enforcement reform and do things like end qualified immunity and we could have done those things, there is even public support for it. But somehow nothing ever gets done because...well nothing ever seems to ever get done on anything.
So many Democratic initiatives are popular with people willing to get behind them but we just don't do them and eventually they get hijacked and turn into mainstream issues. Florida voted for a $15 dollar minimum wage while voting Republican. When asked about this a voter responded that a $15 dollar minimum wage wasn't a progressive issue :wacko: which is kind of like saying improving shareholder value is not a corporate issue or overthrowing the Provisional Government is not a Bolshevik issue. Several red states passed drug legalization laws.
The Democrats haven't managed to touch either of those issues on a federal level. It's crazy. We have vote getting issues we just never do anything with any of them. We could have gotten some bipartisan support on some of it to.
The problem is, of course, that the President always ends up benefiting from anything anybody does in their term so even if the Democrats could have gotten a national increase the minimum wage or drug law reform or law enforcement reform the guy who would have signed them is Donald Trump and then he would have eagerly taken all the credit for it. Can't have that. And obviously the same problem would be there for popular Republican issues as they found out during the Clinton Administration.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:03:14 AM
I quite liked Romney's statement - but I'm starting to feel it's at the point where people probably need to consider resignations/breaking away from the GOP.
Here, when in 2017 The Finns Party elected an openly racist demagogue as its chairman, many of the party's non-ultra-right wing MPs and government ministers broke away and formed a new, non-radical party in order to continue working in the government (which the party was in from 2015).
That new party no longer exists because nobody voted for them in the 2019 elections.
Quote from: Solmyr on November 20, 2020, 08:47:44 AM
That new party no longer exists because nobody voted for them in the 2019 elections.
Well in this country the only real place to go is the other major party unless you just plan on ending your political career. I don't see Romney or Sasse joining team blue. They should but they won't.
Every country has its extremists, but it seems like the multi-party system has a safety valve to absorb them. In the US, the extremists either are marginalized or dominate one of the two major parties.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
Well then, the strategy is clear. The Dems should agree that the election was rigged to appease the 50% (although I really doubt the number is that high) of complete idiots in your country.
I am sure things will end well.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 08:55:45 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
Well then, the strategy is clear. The Dems should agree that the election was rigged to appease the 50% (although I really doubt the number is that high) of complete idiots in your country.
I am sure things will end well.
I don't see how that helps us win. Besides if all we did was get all the Biden voters to show up and vote Democrat down ballot consistently we would be in pretty good shape. That is, by definition, over half the electorate.
If raising the minimum wage and legalizing pot are good policy(I think they are), does it matter which party does them?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 08:58:48 AM
If raising the minimum wage and legalizing pot are good policy(I think they are), does it matter which party does them?
Yes and no. Ultimately these are just things that have to get done and obviously at the end of the day they just need to get done no matter how much the Democrats fail to do them.
They were progressive policies that were popular that Democrats could have done to win support and votes. When Republicans do them well that eats away at our base and it was a missed opportunity for political victories.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 08:57:59 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 08:55:45 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 03:48:07 AM
Do you want to win or not? Presuming you do, you can't just write half the electorate off.
Well then, the strategy is clear. The Dems should agree that the election was rigged to appease the 50% (although I really doubt the number is that high) of complete idiots in your country.
I am sure things will end well.
I don't see how that helps us win. Besides if all we did was get all the Biden voters to show up and vote Democrat down ballot consistently we would be in pretty good shape. That is, by definition, over half the electorate.
Really, you think I was being serious.... get another coffee Valmy.
https://twitter.com/markhelenowski/status/1329495664133361664 :XD:
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
Really, you think I was being serious.... get another coffee Valmy.
Of course I didn't think you were being serious. However, I was pointing out how wrong your sarcastic point was. That somehow we had to appease the truest of the Trump fans. We don't, but Eddie's point still stands. A lot of those Biden voters are not Democrats. Some of them might have even voted for Trump in 2016. We cannot just write off everybody not on our team.
When I said "I don't see how that helps us win." That was a joke. I was being sarcastic.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 08:50:09 AM
Well in this country the only real place to go is the other major party unless you just plan on ending your political career. I don't see Romney or Sasse joining team blue. They should but they won't.
Yeah - my approach wouldbe to try and get a bloc together and leave as "Independent Republicans" or something similar. I'm not suggesting they join the Democrats, but there is an issue here with staying in the party once this becomes their approach - you know get rid of the figleaf.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 09:09:38 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
Really, you think I was being serious.... get another coffee Valmy.
Of course I didn't think you were being serious. However, I was pointing out how wrong your sarcastic point was. That somehow we had to appease the truest of the Trump fans. We don't, but Eddie's point still stands. A lot of those Biden voters are not Democrats. Some of them might have even voted for Trump in 2016. We cannot just write off everybody not on our team.
When I said "I don't see how that helps us win." That was a joke. I was being sarcastic.
In one breath you said he was wrong and then right.
His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
I am coming to the view that the real problem is people who want to appease the fascist or at least not upset them too much. Your country is broken. Sucking up the the people who broke it is not the way.
Quote from: katmai on November 20, 2020, 08:25:37 AM
I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)
Although they might also create enough doubt to hold up certifications. See this from the Washington Post last night:
QuoteMichigan GOP official leaning toward seeking to delay certification of vote
By Beth Reinhard
One of the two Republican members of the four-member Michigan canvassing board, Norman Shinkle, said Thursday said that he is leaning toward asking for a delay in the certification vote and calling for an audit. The board is scheduled to vote Monday.
"I do think with all of the potential problems, if any of them are true, an audit is appropriate," he said in a telephone interview. "I take one step at a time, and if we can get more information, why not?"
Among his concerns: the debunked claim by Trump allies, including attorney Sidney Powell, that Dominion Voting Systems, the Colorado-based manufacturer of voting machines, deleted thousands of Trump votes. "If Dominion was fudging votes, that's a serious problem," he said. "If it's true. I don't know. I have to be convinced of it. That's why the audit makes sense."
Shinkle said his duties go beyond certifying the election — to get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties — even though no evidence of widespread fraud has been found. "Right now the idea to check into some of these accusations seem to make sense to me," he said. "We have to have people trust our system going forward."
Shinkle is under intense scrutiny in part because his wife, Mary Shinkle, filed an affidavit supporting a federal lawsuit by the Trump campaign. The lawsuit was withdrawn. Shinkle said he had not read the affidavit and that people should not assume he would be biased by it. "That's almost an accusation against marriage," he said. "My wife can do whatever she wants to do."
Shinkle joked that his phone is ringing constantly from fellow Republicans urging him not to certify the vote. "Every time someone calls, they tell me about a new problem," he said. He said he hasn't heard from President Trump or any of his representatives, but if he did, "I would say hi. They have a position to advocate."
Asked whether he considered Joe Biden the president-elect, he said: "I haven't thought about that, but the odds are probably that he will become president. But I don't know what's going to happen in Pennsylvania or Nevada. My job is to try to do the right thing for the vote in Michigan."
It creates space for this sort of argument to be almost plausible: "there are enough legal challenges and enough doubt about this election to cast isues on whether it was trustworthy and I cannot, in good conscience, certify it." I don't know if that would work in all states or what the consequences would be.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 09:15:15 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 08:50:09 AM
Well in this country the only real place to go is the other major party unless you just plan on ending your political career. I don't see Romney or Sasse joining team blue. They should but they won't.
Yeah - my approach wouldbe to try and get a bloc together and leave as "Independent Republicans" or something similar. I'm not suggesting they join the Democrats, but there is an issue here with staying in the party once this becomes their approach - you know get rid of the figleaf.
It is not impossible I guess, Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King all are/were supposedly independent. I guess if they just continued to be Republicans in their caucus and just became some kind of independent label the Republicans might leave them alone in their states.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:18:55 AM
In one breath you said he was wrong and then right.
Ok I think he is right. We need to get those people who, for example, voted for Biden in the Nebraska second district but voted for the Republicans down ballot. We need to get those voters who voted for Trump but were Democratic voters previously in their lives until then and voted for legalizing drugs and increasing the minimum wage. There are all kinds of people we can get, and we need, in that other half of the electorate. But I don't think Eddie was saying we were going to get all of them.
QuoteHis (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
There is no equivalency. The GOP is dangerous and must be stopped. I want them defeated and discredited.
I am aware that several different explanations for defunding the police have been given, naturally I find that confusing. However in the one example I have close to home it sure looks like it is just that: dramatically slashing the police budget.
QuoteI am coming to the view that the real problem is people who want to appease the fascist or at least not upset them too much.
I want the fascists stopped and arrested if they do illegal things. I don't want these dangerous militias kidnapping governors and running wild.
QuoteYour country is broken. Sucking up the the people who broke it is not the way.
Alright I guess I failed to see where anybody recommended we do that.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:18:55 AM
His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
I don't recall making this point.
I wonder when Donald Trump will start preparing the ground for his self pardon. I imagine we'll start hearing about how a pardon does not indicate guilt in any shape or form.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 09:28:17 AM
It is not impossible I guess, Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King all are/were supposedly independent. I guess if they just continued to be Republicans in their caucus and just became some kind of independent label the Republicans might leave them alone in their states.
But they're just independents.
My point is if you're still in Trump's cabinet - you're endorsing this conduct. You could just step down, alternatively (and this would be more effective) step down with a joint statement. Similarly if you're in the Senate, particularly, you either threaten the thing that the Republican leadership cares about (so you tell McConnell you'll vote "no" on every judicial nominee) or you (ideally as a group with a joint statement of values) announce you're leaving the GOP, won't caucus with them etc until this is resolved - either way the GOP loses its majority on the things it really cares about which I think would force them into action.
In terms of elections I wouldn't worry (I think Romney and Collins would definitely win their states anyway). At a certain point the priority or focus should be more about can I stand behind this and share a common platform with this conduct on a personal/moral/ethical level or not. Everyone in the Senate is a millionaire, so it's not like they desperately need the job.
I wouldn't be so sure. Lieberman is the only one to beat both a Democrat and a Republican in an election that I am aware of and that only happened because most of the Republicans voted for him as the lesser evil to the Democrat. And he ended up caucusing with the Democrats anyway.
I don't know if I see the Democrats in Maine jumping to Susan Collins to save her from a Republican. They wouldn't need to since that is a Democratic state. If the Republican/independent vote was split they would win.
Now Romney might be able to do it in Utah, I could see Democrats rallying to his cause against some more conservative Republican. But it is no sure thing.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 10:12:15 AM
I don't know if I see the Democrats in Maine jumping to Susan Collins to save her from a Republican. They wouldn't need to since that is a Democratic state. If the Republican/independent vote was split they would win.
Maine has ranked voting. This year Trump won, I think, 43.5% of the vote and Collins still won over 50% of the first round vote. She would definitely do well enough to get to the ranking stage - I don't think anything could happen that would make Collins lose Maine :lol:
QuoteNow Romney might be able to do it in Utah, I could see Democrats rallying to his cause against some more conservative Republican. But it is no sure thing.
From everything I've read Romney is incredibly popular in Utah (and Trump isn't). In a three-way vote I'd think Romney was the favourite.
But again my point isn't really about the electoral viability of independents or a third party.
Actually yeah Maine has that ranked choice voting. Collins would probably win no matter what party she was running on. Bull Moose in 2026!
I wish the whole country had that. That should be my fantasy Constitutional amendment in the other thread.
And on the corrosiveness of this, Republicans have far more doubts about the electoral system than Democrats even for states Trump won:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnOYKKIW4AIf28t?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 10:26:04 AM
But again my point isn't really about the electoral viability of independents or a third party.
Yeah you want Susan Collins and Mitt Romney to take courageous stands and put country ahead of party. They both have flirted with that kind of stuff in the past but I don't see it becoming a committed relationship.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 10:34:02 AM
Yeah you want Susan Collins and Mitt Romney to take courageous stands and put country ahead of party. They both have flirted with that kind of stuff in the past but I don't see it becoming a committed relationship.
I wouldn't focus on them - but they've got leverage and if they mean what they say they should use it. And I don't think they need to do it on a long-term basis - they could even say we'll vote no on all new nominees (because they're still going through Senate) until Trump concedes and starts the transition. These politicians and the GOP are not powerless - as I've said before this is as much, if not more, McConnell's party as it is Trump's. So threaten what they care about.
I thought the same about the Labour MPs who quit or otherwise made Corbyn's life difficult. It isn't enough to just anonymously brief journalists about how unhappy you are or how disgraceful x action is.
Trump voters in 2016: "The electoral college system is good. Suck it up, libs!"
Trump voters in 2020: "The electoral college system is fundamentally broken and fraudulent, and we're going to prove it!"
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 09:46:14 AM
alency. The GOP is dangerous and must be stopped. I want them defeated and discredited.
I am aware that several different explanations for defunding the police have been given, naturally I find that confusing. However in the one example I have close to home it sure looks like it is just that: dramatically slashing the police budget.
Great, then stop saying stupid shit like this "Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police."
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 20, 2020, 11:01:20 AM
Trump voters in 2016: "The electoral college system is good. Suck it up, libs!"
Trump voters in 2020: "The electoral college system is fundamentally broken and fraudulent, and we're going to prove it!"
I mean Trump called both elections fraudulent before they were even held and then somehow we are supposed to believe that was based on something. It is just kind of a moving target.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 11:14:09 AM
Great, then stop saying stupid shit like this "Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police."
I don't see how one statement leads to another.
Anyway this is Languish. I will say stupid shit here I will not say elsewhere. I need to know how stupid it is before I say it someplace more significant.
Quote from: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 08:45:05 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 19, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
The Left: Okay, we don't want to do anything with law enforcement. Police can do whatever the fuck they want.
I mean we desperately need law enforcement reform and do things like end qualified immunity and we could have done those things, there is even public support for it. But somehow nothing ever gets done because...well nothing ever seems to ever get done on anything.
So many Democratic initiatives are popular with people willing to get behind them but we just don't do them and eventually they get hijacked and turn into mainstream issues. Florida voted for a $15 dollar minimum wage while voting Republican. When asked about this a voter responded that a $15 dollar minimum wage wasn't a progressive issue :wacko: which is kind of like saying improving shareholder value is not a corporate issue or overthrowing the Provisional Government is not a Bolshevik issue. Several red states passed drug legalization laws.
The Democrats haven't managed to touch either of those issues on a federal level. It's crazy. We have vote getting issues we just never do anything with any of them. We could have gotten some bipartisan support on some of it to.
The problem is, of course, that the President always ends up benefiting from anything anybody does in their term so even if the Democrats could have gotten a national increase the minimum wage or drug law reform or law enforcement reform the guy who would have signed them is Donald Trump and then he would have eagerly taken all the credit for it. Can't have that. And obviously the same problem would be there for popular Republican issues as they found out during the Clinton Administration.
Yeah the stuff you're talking about has nothing to do with politics. Politics isn't about issues. It's about creating a team (which is a complex step), and then rousing that team up as much as possible while trying to steal off team members from the other side, or alternatively make the other side's team members less prone to show up for game day. Democrats have a range of policies as there are a range of Democrats, some are really dumb, some are pretty smart. But what they lack is the cohesive organization to even play on this team based field I'm describing. After 2018, the Democrats largely just helped Trump run the country because they didn't abjectly block and attempt to implode the government literally over every single legislation point possible. Because of this the Republicans had to deal with very little real pain until Covid, which was a black swan event. The Dems then let Trump run multiple covid bail outs without pushing much pain into those bills for Republicans at all. We should have mandated election integrity laws and other major concessions from Trump to pass one dollar of covid stimulus.
The Democrats think they have an obligation to run the country, even when they don't control the actual organ of government that runs the country, and because of that they are ineffective in opposing a party like the GOP when it is in power. The only way the Dems can successfully fight the GOP in situations like we've had the last four years is to
do things that hurt Republican voters as badly as possible. That is the only thing that is likely to get any meaningful movement from the GOP.
Once Biden is in President it's a different calculus because he will have a governing obligation, but a lot of the Dems problems derive from the fact they are an extremely ineffective opposition to the GOP holding power, and the GOP is a very effective opposition to Democrats holding power.
Quote from: katmai on November 20, 2020, 08:25:37 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:33:26 AM
What do people think Biden should do?
So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.
I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now? :mellow:
I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)
This 100%. Certification is what matters right now. Georgia has to certify today, then the Trump team can request a recount through Tuesday. I think Michigan and PA can certify Monday (PA doesn't have to, but can, and likely will.) Arizona and Nevada on the 30th, Wisconsin on Dec. 1st. I don't think Joe should continue changing what he's doing unless Trump is able to actually stop any of these certifications. Like when Raffensperger in Georgia certifies the result today, and we don't see a legal process through the end of next Friday that has succeeded in blocking that certification, then there's not much to worry about there. Come Monday if PA and MI are able to both certify then we've past that hurdle. Same for AZ/NV on the 30th. If anything, be it political or legal causes these deadlines to be missed that is when Biden needs to take action.
Now if it's just a Federal court taking a few days to sort something out in Georgia or Michigan, that's not a reason to get crazy, but obviously Biden's team would need to get involved in the legal process. Where I think you would need dramatic political action is if a State legislature shows serious signs of attempting to block electors or etc.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 20, 2020, 12:24:18 PM
Once Biden is in President it's a different calculus because he will have a governing obligation, but a lot of the Dems problems derive from the fact they are an extremely ineffective opposition to the GOP holding power, and the GOP is a very effective opposition to Democrats holding power.
Well I cannot argue much there.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 09:48:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:18:55 AM
His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
I don't recall making this point.
Forget it. He's rollin'.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:03:14 AM
The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".
If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 01:31:54 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:03:14 AM
The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".
If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.
Funnily enough I was just thinking Is Trump hoping for or are his extremist followers planning some Reichstag type outrage during the next few weeks?
The Georgia SecState has certified the election result there, Governor Brian Kemp now has to sign off on the certification and the appointment of electors by 5pm tomorrow. This is a purely "ministerial" function in which the law allows for no discretion by the Governor. So I think it is _likely_ that GA is done and Kemp will certify. Kemp is a fairly stupid and Trumpy Republican so he may choose to refuse to sign, which would then go to litigation. I would wager decent odds he just signs it though, for him politically it's probably better any focus stays up in MI / PA.
With GA down and the states of NV and AZ having no serious procedural, political or legal avenues for Trump I think you can consider those three states "safe" at this point. (Democrats control the actual power structures for certification in AZ and NV and their state laws offer even less maneuvering for trouble than GA's.) That's 260 EVs very close to locker up.
Quote from: grumbler on November 20, 2020, 01:05:08 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 09:48:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:18:55 AM
His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
I don't recall making this point.
Forget it. He's rollin'.
Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with. No need to tell him to forget it.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 01:31:54 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:03:14 AM
The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".
If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.
No need to do the translation. It is Fascist all on its own.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 09:19:42 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 20, 2020, 08:25:37 AM
I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)
Although they might also create enough doubt to hold up certifications. See this from the Washington Post last night:
QuoteMichigan GOP official leaning toward seeking to delay certification of vote
By Beth Reinhard
One of the two Republican members of the four-member Michigan canvassing board, Norman Shinkle, said Thursday said that he is leaning toward asking for a delay in the certification vote and calling for an audit. The board is scheduled to vote Monday.
"I do think with all of the potential problems, if any of them are true, an audit is appropriate," he said in a telephone interview. "I take one step at a time, and if we can get more information, why not?"
Among his concerns: the debunked claim by Trump allies, including attorney Sidney Powell, that Dominion Voting Systems, the Colorado-based manufacturer of voting machines, deleted thousands of Trump votes. "If Dominion was fudging votes, that's a serious problem," he said. "If it's true. I don't know. I have to be convinced of it. That's why the audit makes sense."
Shinkle said his duties go beyond certifying the election — to get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties — even though no evidence of widespread fraud has been found. "Right now the idea to check into some of these accusations seem to make sense to me," he said. "We have to have people trust our system going forward."
Shinkle is under intense scrutiny in part because his wife, Mary Shinkle, filed an affidavit supporting a federal lawsuit by the Trump campaign. The lawsuit was withdrawn. Shinkle said he had not read the affidavit and that people should not assume he would be biased by it. "That's almost an accusation against marriage," he said. "My wife can do whatever she wants to do."
Shinkle joked that his phone is ringing constantly from fellow Republicans urging him not to certify the vote. "Every time someone calls, they tell me about a new problem," he said. He said he hasn't heard from President Trump or any of his representatives, but if he did, "I would say hi. They have a position to advocate."
Asked whether he considered Joe Biden the president-elect, he said: "I haven't thought about that, but the odds are probably that he will become president. But I don't know what's going to happen in Pennsylvania or Nevada. My job is to try to do the right thing for the vote in Michigan."
It creates space for this sort of argument to be almost plausible: "there are enough legal challenges and enough doubt about this election to cast isues on whether it was trustworthy and I cannot, in good conscience, certify it." I don't know if that would work in all states or what the consequences would be.
Shinkle is wrong about his duties, he needs to read the Michigan election code. The state canvassers have no duties beyond certifying election. None. Certainly not " get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties" - whatever the hell that means. the state code says they "shall" meet and "shall" ascertain and certify the results as provided to them by the county canvassers. They can "await" receipt or correction of returns, but they don't have the authority to do any investigation or make corrections themselves. Allegations of fraud are supposed to made to the secretary of state not the state canvasser boards.
The mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election. That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns. It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast. The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 01:48:04 PM
Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with. No need to tell him to forget it.
If I made some kind of statement that made it sound like I thought those things were equivalent that was not my intent. All I was saying is that we should be crushing these assholes but we keep fucking it up. I don't actually know why and how that happens.
However, fumbling the law enforcement reform thing AGAIN is deeply frustrating whether we win elections or not.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 01:59:19 PM
Shinkle is wrong about his duties, he needs to read the Michigan election code. The state canvassers have no duties beyond certifying election. None. Certainly not " get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties" - whatever the hell that means. the state code says they "shall" meet and "shall" ascertain and certify the results as provided to them by the county canvassers. They can "await" receipt or correction of returns, but they don't have the authority to do any investigation or make corrections themselves. Allegations of fraud are supposed to made to the secretary of state not the state canvasser boards.
As I don't know the law in any of the states. Doesn't part of it depend on what they can do to "ascertain" the results?
QuoteThe mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election. That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns. It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast. The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.
Interesting.
"ascertain" means add up all the county returns.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 20, 2020, 07:33:26 AM
What do people think Biden should do?
So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.
I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now? :mellow:
Tell it like it is.
Trump is attempting a coup d'etat to overturn the election and stay in power. Americans must unite to protect democracy.
Either you are for America or against it. Rudy and his elite strike force have left no middle ground.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 01:48:04 PM
Quote from: grumbler on November 20, 2020, 01:05:08 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 20, 2020, 09:48:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 20, 2020, 09:18:55 AM
His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.
I don't recall making this point.
Forget it. He's rollin'.
Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with. No need to tell him to forget it.
:lmfao: Yep. Yer rollin'!
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 20, 2020, 12:30:00 PMI think Michigan and PA can certify Monday (PA doesn't have to, but can, and likely will.)
i thought PA has deadline of 23rd aka Monday no?
PA doesn't have a (state--there is a Federal deadline for all states) statutory deadline for the SecCommonwealth to certify, it has a 23rd deadline for counties to certify, then the SecCommonwealth can certify at her leisure, since she is a Democrat I would expect nearly immediate certification by her.
Ah gotcha, yeah had heard/seen the 23rd date. Didn't realize was just county level deadline.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 01:59:19 PM
The mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election. That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns. It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast. The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.
Trump is certainly trying, but it doesn't seem to be working. Those two GOP legislator who met don't seem to want to do it.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/politics/michigan-house-speaker-will-meet-trump/index.html
Quote(CNN)Members of the Michigan state legislature's Republican leadership who met with President Donald Trump at the White House Friday afternoon said they haven't seen any evidence that would change the fact that President-elect Joe Biden won their state.
So this is kind of fascinating and - I get that 92 had Perot - but Georgia in 1992 by county and in 2020 when, both times, the Democrats won by a narrow lead. 1992:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnTaaa5XEAA1nFv?format=png&name=360x360)
2020:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnTaeAyXIAoL7Cr?format=png&name=360x360)
Trump lost in the burbs what he gained in the sticks.
I suppose it says something about the progress of American unity that rural Southerners are happy to be taken in by a New York huckster. :sleep:
Also it just feels red v blue states is very redundant. It's urban v rural, within states as well, which is why the suburbs are the key areas.
The other point is the ideological sorting. We talk about online bubbles etc - I'd suggest all of that matters less than the sort of physical/community sorting you see on that map and the very real physical bubbles people are in.
It looks like a dramatic increase in polarization. Georgia has changed quite a bit in 30 years so the underlying demographics have probably changed as well. The black belt seems smaller than it was in 1992.
I would guess the black belt (rural black communities) probably is smaller as a share of Georgia's population than 20-30 years ago. Growth in Georgia isn't happening much in rural areas, much as rural areas everywhere are not really places where we observe significant economic or population growth in this country. Growth is in metro areas, sometimes in the core cities (sometimes not), but massively in the suburbs/exurbs. I also wouldn't doubt Republicans probably do a tad better with black belt voters than they did 30 years ago, rural black people very likely have many of the same conservative cultural leanings as rural whites.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 13, 2020, 11:03:12 AM
So it's funny but I have actually been doing a lot of reading about FDR's campaigns in 2020. Mainly because while I feel like I'm decently well read on that era of U.S. history, I had never done much of a dive into the specifics of FDR's campaigns, and to a degree I assumed Hoover's mismanagement of the economy and the widespread blame the country laid on the GOP for that kinda set FDR up for an easy walk. While some of that is true, if you follow his New York gubernatorial campaigns and some of his more contested Presidential campaigns, the guy really was in my opinion an amazing political messenger. I don't think you can just copy and paste stuff from the 1930s into the 2020s, but some of the tone and underlying ideas behind those FDR campaigns are universal and I think you could really argue for the Democrats making more arguments like this in the future. Most Democrat campaigns I have observed in the past 10 years come off as too wonky, too mired in complex policy issues most voters don't take the time to understand and etc.
Would you mind recommending some books on the topic? It sounds interesting.
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Dang
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
Hi.
Dane just won the internet. We can all go home, now. :lol:
Quote from: dane on November 21, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
That's awesome :cheers:
Epic uncloaking.
Quote from: dane on November 21, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
That's awesome.
Post more Dane. :hug:
Amazing - post more. Welcome (:huh: ?) :w00t: :hug:
So Trump is now calling for "courts and/or legislatures" to overturn the election:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnY_UgrXUAAmPix?format=jpg&name=900x900)
It was always the plan.
Sweet, sweet Trumptard tears.
Cry more, Bunkbitch.
Quote from: dane on November 21, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
Awesome! Hi! :)
Trump's big PA case was dismissed a few hours ago. While he was golfing the judge and his clerks worked into Saturday. The gist of the opinion follows the intro:
QuoteIn this action, the Trump Campaign and the Individual Plaintiffs (collectively, the "Plaintiffs") seek to discard millions of votes legally cast by Pennsylvanians from all corners – from Greene County to Pike County, and everywhere in between. In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.
That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants' motions and dismiss Plaintiffs' action with prejudice.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 22, 2020, 03:15:00 AM
Trump's big PA case was dismissed a few hours ago. While he was golfing the judge and his clerks worked into Saturday. The gist of the opinion follows the intro:
QuoteIn this action, the Trump Campaign and the Individual Plaintiffs (collectively, the "Plaintiffs") seek to discard millions of votes legally cast by Pennsylvanians from all corners – from Greene County to Pike County, and everywhere in between. In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.
That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants' motions and dismiss Plaintiffs' action with prejudice.
And Giuliani of course basically declared the court's dismissal a win for the Trump campaign.
Quote"Today's decision turns out to help us in our strategy to get expeditiously to the US Supreme Court."
Quote from: Malicious Intent on November 22, 2020, 07:23:53 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 22, 2020, 03:15:00 AM
Trump's big PA case was dismissed a few hours ago. While he was golfing the judge and his clerks worked into Saturday. The gist of the opinion follows the intro:
QuoteIn this action, the Trump Campaign and the Individual Plaintiffs (collectively, the "Plaintiffs") seek to discard millions of votes legally cast by Pennsylvanians from all corners – from Greene County to Pike County, and everywhere in between. In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.
That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants' motions and dismiss Plaintiffs' action with prejudice.
And Giuliani of course basically declared the court's dismissal a win for the Trump campaign.
Quote"Today's decision turns out to help us in our strategy to get expeditiously to the US Supreme Court."
Well, if their end game is taking it all to the Supreme Court and all these state cases are only the necessary steps to do so then yes, but they're getting slapped everywhere. How likely is that the Supreme Court (barring extreme partisanship from the judges) will be more receptive to their case than lower courts?
Does the Supreme Court deal with every single case that someone wants them to deal with? Can you swamp the Supreme Court with obviously bogus cases?
Quote from: The Larch on November 22, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
Quote from: Malicious Intent on November 22, 2020, 07:23:53 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 22, 2020, 03:15:00 AM
Trump's big PA case was dismissed a few hours ago. While he was golfing the judge and his clerks worked into Saturday. The gist of the opinion follows the intro:
QuoteIn this action, the Trump Campaign and the Individual Plaintiffs (collectively, the "Plaintiffs") seek to discard millions of votes legally cast by Pennsylvanians from all corners – from Greene County to Pike County, and everywhere in between. In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.
That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants' motions and dismiss Plaintiffs' action with prejudice.
And Giuliani of course basically declared the court's dismissal a win for the Trump campaign.
Quote"Today's decision turns out to help us in our strategy to get expeditiously to the US Supreme Court."
Well, if their end game is taking it all to the Supreme Court and all these state cases are only the necessary steps to do so then yes, but they're getting slapped everywhere. How likely is that the Supreme Court (barring extreme partisanship from the judges) will be more receptive to their case than lower courts?
Extreme partisanship from the judges is the end game. I think it's a miscalculation on Trump's part, but that's the hope and fear.
Quote from: grumbler on November 21, 2020, 09:51:40 PM
Dane just won the internet. We can all go home, now. :lol:
This.
Pretty bloody awesome on his part. :)
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 22, 2020, 08:31:55 AM
Extreme partisanship from the judges is the end game. I think it's a miscalculation on Trump's part, but that's the hope and fear.
If the Supreme Court doesn't take it up, maybe Rudy can instead take it to the Supreme Courtyard Tools & Gardening.
Quote from: celedhring on November 22, 2020, 10:07:40 AM
If the Supreme Court doesn't take it up, maybe Rudy can instead take it to the Supreme Courtyard Tools & Gardening.
:( Man, I wish
I'd said that.
Quote from: The Brain on November 22, 2020, 08:11:57 AM
Does the Supreme Court deal with every single case that someone wants them to deal with? Can you swamp the Supreme Court with obviously bogus cases?
No the Supreme Court takes very few cases. They pick their own appeal docket and it is very restrictive
They are more likely to take a case with the President's name on it. But I don't think they will take this one.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 22, 2020, 12:22:05 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 22, 2020, 08:11:57 AM
Does the Supreme Court deal with every single case that someone wants them to deal with? Can you swamp the Supreme Court with obviously bogus cases?
No the Supreme Court takes very few cases. They pick their own appeal docket and it is very restrictive
They are more likely to take a case with the President's name on it. But I don't think they will take this one.
Yeah. I don't get the impression that there is an important legal question here that would benefit from a SC decision. The cases just seem to be garden variety poop. Touching them at all would seem to cheapen the SC.
There's a legal ruling on standing but it doesn't raise any really novel issue that would normally interest the Court.
Quote from: dane on November 21, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
Civility and Languish... What strange times we live in! :P
Welcome lurker, please do post more often :)
Quote from: dane on November 21, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 21, 2020, 09:18:56 PM
Have you been lurking for 11 years and only now decided to post something? :hmm:
Well...Umm...Yeah that's about it.
I used to play eu2 and registered so I could play in a few games here before the site crashed. Since then I've been lurking because the people on this site generally share my interests. You guys post a lot of interesting news I might not catch otherwise. Also, it is one of the few places on the internet where people on both sides of American politics talk to each other with something resembling civility. Plus who doesn't enjoy a good pun? I don't post much (at all) because someone usually has my opinion covered and I already spend enough time just reading this site :blush:
:worthy:
:cheers:
Quote from: The Larch on November 22, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
Well, if their end game is taking it all to the Supreme Court and all these state cases are only the necessary steps to do so then yes, but they're getting slapped everywhere. How likely is that the Supreme Court (barring extreme partisanship from the judges) will be more receptive to their case than lower courts?
Obviously they don't have evidence because it's fake. But what I find weird is the way Trump's lawyers keep talking about this because, I'd be astonished if the US is different than us on this, but the Supreme Court doesn't make findings of fact or her evidence. They decide points of law. So even if they win in the Supreme Court all they get to do is go back to the lower courts with a different legal standard, but still no evidence.
I said before but I think the only way this strategy actually works is if the GOP lost the senate, it was close in the Presidential election (so one or two states, narrowly) and it goes to the court. But this is far too big a loss for this approach.
What's the relevance of the Federal Safe Harbour date because it definitely feels like he's trying to get past that.
Quote from: The Brain on November 22, 2020, 12:28:49 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 22, 2020, 12:22:05 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 22, 2020, 08:11:57 AM
Does the Supreme Court deal with every single case that someone wants them to deal with? Can you swamp the Supreme Court with obviously bogus cases?
No the Supreme Court takes very few cases. They pick their own appeal docket and it is very restrictive
They are more likely to take a case with the President's name on it. But I don't think they will take this one.
Yeah. I don't get the impression that there is an important legal question here that would benefit from a SC decision. The cases just seem to be garden variety poop. Touching them at all would seem to cheapen the SC.
Touching Brett Kavanaugh cheapened the SC already.
:lol: The best people:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Endg3mgXIAA9zlZ?format=jpg&name=small)
Apparently Powell had been on TV accusing Kemp, the Georgia SoS and their families of taking bribes from voting machine manufacturers.
I don't fully know what it means to be "practicing law on your own" :hmm:
Also I wonder what all this internal Republican row in Georgia will do for turn-out. Life I feel this can't be helping getting Trump voters out.
She literally referenced a plot by Hugo Chavez and the CIA being behind certification in Georgia. Fit for psychiatry, not a court.
Of course there is this eight day old tweet:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Endh4tOW4AECF68?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 22, 2020, 03:13:36 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 22, 2020, 08:03:23 AM
Well, if their end game is taking it all to the Supreme Court and all these state cases are only the necessary steps to do so then yes, but they're getting slapped everywhere. How likely is that the Supreme Court (barring extreme partisanship from the judges) will be more receptive to their case than lower courts?
Obviously they don't have evidence because it's fake. But what I find weird is the way Trump's lawyers keep talking about this because, I'd be astonished if the US is different than us on this, but the Supreme Court doesn't make findings of fact or her evidence. They decide points of law. So even if they win in the Supreme Court all they get to do is go back to the lower courts with a different legal standard, but still no evidence.
I said before but I think the only way this strategy actually works is if the GOP lost the senate, it was close in the Presidential election (so one or two states, narrowly) and it goes to the court. But this is far too big a loss for this approach.
What's the relevance of the Federal Safe Harbour date because it definitely feels like he's trying to get past that.
So the way I read it is that the move away from these cases by serious law firms, which I suspect was probably mutual between the Trump campaign and those firms, was more or less when Trump's team realized there was no real "legal victory" possible. What they've moved onto now is a propaganda campaign mixed with frivolous lawsuits, that they hope results in some things that can "disrupt" the election, like for example the Republican SecState and Governor in Georgia delaying certification (which they desperately wanted, and did not get), a random bad ruling by an appellate court that delays certification to review the matter, or something like the Michigan State canvassing board delaying certification. The procedural effort would not expect actual procedural victories, but to just delay the process until past the Safe Harbor Date, which would give State legislatures some political and legal legitimacy to just appoint their own slates of electors to "avoid their state being disenfranchised in the electoral college."
The biggest obstacle to this process thus far is in none of these frivolous suits have judges ordered any sort of halt to an ongoing certification process. Without such a ruling the whole game is difficult to play out. The most likely next few days will see Trump appeals in Pennsylvania dismissed and efforts to block certification in Michigan fail, if Pennsylvania and Michigan then end up certifying tomorrow Biden will be at 279 or so "secured" electoral votes, and Trump would see his micrometer thin path basically completely shut to closed. That's likely why he and his surrogates are behaving so badly in Michigan, they realize if they can delay Michigan then even with PA, Biden will not be over 270 certified states and they have breathing room to fight. How much breathing room is questionable, because NV will certify on the 24th and get Biden to 269 secured EVs and most people agree Trump has basically no procedural, political, or legal way to slow Nevada down. Then Arizona certifies on the 30th where he faces similar lack of real options. It's not inconceivable to me he can muck things up in Michigan and result in a delayed certification, depending on how these canvassing board people act after being leaned on (and they are being leaned on), and how that process is resolved in court and with other actors in Michigan who could then step in (like the Governor and State legislature, who can replace canvassing board members.) If I was betting on it though I'd wager PA and MI certify tomorrow and it's all done at that point. But if he succeeds in mucking up MI he likely has just bought himself a final week, because when AZ certifies on the 30th Biden will be over 270 secured EVs even without resolving MI or WI (which certifies 12/1.)
If I read you correctly Biscuit, I somewhat disagree. I don't think the goal from the beginning was to lose while "muddying the waters." I think the goal was to win, first by finding a way to get the courts to reject mail in ballots, and when that looked like it was failing, to create enough of a frenzy among Trumptards about alleged fraud to sway state legislatures to overrule the state ballots. The invitation to Michigan reps to the White House makes much more sense as an attempt to steal an election than an attempt to muddy the waters.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 22, 2020, 05:42:20 PM
:lol: The best people:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Endg3mgXIAA9zlZ?format=jpg&name=small)
Apparently Powell had been on TV accusing Kemp, the Georgia SoS and their families of taking bribes from voting machine manufacturers.
I don't fully know what it means to be "practicing law on your own" :hmm:
Also I wonder what all this internal Republican row in Georgia will do for turn-out. Life I feel this can't be helping getting Trump voters out.
The party (Mitch) must have had a conniption when she attacked Kemp and Loeffler. Talk about a Venezuelan-Communist conspiracy all you want but if you risk the Senate majority you're out.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 22, 2020, 05:42:20 PM
:lol: The best people:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Endg3mgXIAA9zlZ?format=jpg&name=small)
Apparently Powell had been on TV accusing Kemp, the Georgia SoS and their families of taking bribes from voting machine manufacturers.
I don't fully know what it means to be "practicing law on your own" :hmm:
Also I wonder what all this internal Republican row in Georgia will do for turn-out. Life I feel this can't be helping getting Trump voters out.
This breaks the 11th commandment, "Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican". Bribery is a pretty damn big charge to make, it's not something you should make lightly. Frankly it's out of bounds.
A commandment always best shown the in the breach :lol:
Meanwhile Powell has issued a statement:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EneD7KCUcAA2PVG?format=png&name=small)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 22, 2020, 07:03:28 PM
If I read you correctly Biscuit, I somewhat disagree. I don't think the goal from the beginning was to lose while "muddying the waters." I think the goal was to win, first by finding a way to get the courts to reject mail in ballots, and when that looked like it was failing, to create enough of a frenzy among Trumptards about alleged fraud to sway state legislatures to overrule the state ballots. The invitation to Michigan reps to the White House makes much more sense as an attempt to steal an election than an attempt to muddy the waters.
That's literally what I said--I said them swapping out the blue chip law firms was because they had internally concluded they would not win via litigation, so they had to move to plan B, which was to fuck with the procedural process of certification so long that the Safe Harbor deadline hits. I never said the goal was the lose FWIW, so not sure where that comes from. I think pre-election Trump for a combination of ignorance and naivete thought the legal process and his friendly judges would function much simpler. When it became obvious there wasn't just going to be a bunch of quick Republican judicial reversals of clear election outcomes, they ditched the blue chip firms (who would not want to be associated with a less legally legitimate process) and moved to the Giuliani lead effort--whose goal is certainly still to ultimate seat Trump to a second term, but this time by muck up certification so much it cannot happen, in which case in theory many of these Republican states with GOP legislatures could just crown Trump.
Note that I think both Plan A and Plan B are pretty bad plans, in terms of % likelihood of working.
God, I hate this QAnon bullshit. It's very hard to respect someone who goes on about it. I react to people who espouse Qanon the same way I react to a person who told me that they would like to see me hanged
I don't actually know anyone who is a QAnon devotee (though my wife has a friend who we think might be), but if someone told me they were, it'd be like "cool, thanks for letting me know you're mentally ill." Kind of like a way to react to a Birther would have been "cool, thanks for letting me know you're racist".
After seeing Powell dumped it still perplexes me why so many people are so willing to beclown themselves in front of the entire world just to touch power (or what they perceive as power).
I mean, there's mountains of evidence that everyone who has ever been in Trump's orbit has been covered in shit, either self-induced or by him. Why do people see that and say "Hell yes I too want to put my hand in a blender while shitting my pants!!"
I think Trump has the power to hypnotize people. That's his one and only exceptional skill.
An enormous number of people ARE clowns.
Too looney for the Trump legal team....that is quite something :cool:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 23, 2020, 08:19:58 AM
Too looney for the Trump legal team....that is quite something :cool:
Yeah, that'll leave a mark.
I presume from the fact that she was fired that they don't have a witness who will testify that the witness was there when Zombie Chavez added seven million Democratic votes to the election using Dominion voting machines. :(
Too bad. I was looking forward to that court appearance.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 23, 2020, 08:19:58 AM
Too looney for the Trump legal team....that is quite something :cool:
It's the hashtags in her statement that I particularly love :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 08:40:26 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 23, 2020, 08:19:58 AM
Too looney for the Trump legal team....that is quite something :cool:
It's the hashtags in her statement that I particularly love :lol:
I have a friend who's obsessed with social media and she has developed the ability to speak using hashtags. It's amazing. :lol:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 22, 2020, 10:57:07 PM
After seeing Powell dumped it still perplexes me why so many people are so willing to beclown themselves in front of the entire world just to touch power (or what they perceive as power).
I mean, there's mountains of evidence that everyone who has ever been in Trump's orbit has been covered in shit, either self-induced or by him. Why do people see that and say "Hell yes I too want to put my hand in a blender while shitting my pants!!"
My view is that these people utterly lack any sense of shame.
They don't care that anyone who comes close to Trump ends up dipped in shit and will be badly considered by history - because they see in the Trump phenomenon a chance for people like themselves to seize a bit of power and do a bit of graft while the grafting is good. Even if Trumpites throws them under the bus, they will still have piles of cash gained from their roles - and chances are very few of them will ever be prosecuted. As far as fraud goes, this is pretty safe with a high reward to risk ratio ... assuming you don't give a shit about being publicly humiliated.
The events of the past four years have convinced me that a sense of shame is a very important thing to cultivate.
Putting a kraken on steroids is extremely bad veterinary practice.
Trump's lawyer asked for expedited briefing on the PA case appeal - but ONLY as the denial to their motion to amend their complaint. If successful that would mean going back to square 1 with the district judge. That move is an implicit recognition that an appeal on the merits will fail.
What is an expedited briefing?
It appears that with his loss in Michigan Trump is approaching probably the closest we will see to a formal concession: he has allowed the GSA Administrator to issue ascertainment of Biden's victory and begin the formal transition process.
The coup is dead.
Long live the coup.
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA. Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good...
...fight, and I believe we will prevail! Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same.
:lol: "The election situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage."
"initiate protocols" :ph34r:
(https://pa1.narvii.com/6476/38f751d142c6ae8013ff1c1cf6483c78a432bda7_hq.gif)
I "love" that Trump couches his GSA decision in language that blames his decision on the GSA employee.
Just as a quick update with Michigan certifying Biden is at 259 "secured" electoral votes. At this point when Nevada likely certifies tomorrow, which would put Biden at 265, the only path Trump would have would be to actually reverse the results in all three remaining states: PA, WI, and AZ. Failure to do so in even one of them fails to prevent Biden from reaching 270. As has been mentioned a lot, he's not going to overturn the results in a single one of these states, so in all real respects Trump's extremely thin gap is basically shut tight now. Note that Pennsylvania's certification no longer appears in doubt, all meaningful legal claims have been dismissed and today was the deadline to file any new ones, and to my knowledge none have been filed. The only reason Boockvar has not certified is she needs to wait for all of Pennsylvania's counties, and as is not unusual in Pennsylvania a couple counties are lagging behind. It is likely she will be able to certify Pennsylvania in 2-3 days at which point Biden will probably be at 275 EVs locked up.
Arizona is basically in no risk of not certifying on the 30th--Mohave County with an entirely Republican canvassing board certified their results today and were the last county to do so. Importantly other Republican counties like Maricopa certified unanimously. The Democrat Arizona SecState has an entirely clear path to certification.
So in short every effort the Trump campaign has undertaken to actually overturn the election has failed. There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.
Additionally a number of significant Republicans broke ranks today. While a majority of the GOP House and Senate still have continued to support Trump's efforts or remain silent, enough Senators and House members have broken away that any attempt at congressional action would be all but impossible. Major figures in the party and close Trump allies like Chrs Christie have come out against continuing the fight. Additionally a large group of CEOs came out today as well advocating against Trump's efforts. This importantly includes several major money donors of the GOP and even some Trump loyalists in the NYC business community who have maintained vague support for him but joined the call to end the fight. While the GOP by and large did not account for us well in this direct and damaging assault on our democratic norms, enough of them did that Trump's political path is also just as closed up as his legal path.
In Languish terminology, organized Trumpist resistance has effectively been destroyed. Multiple divisions of the Biden Armored Corps and Kamala's Rangers have encircled and bypassed large pockets of the shattered Trumpist armies. We estimate advance Democratic elements to be in Washington by January 20th.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 23, 2020, 02:23:34 PM
What is an expedited briefing?
It means they want an accelerated hearing - so a very fast briefing schedule has to be set. But since they aren't seeking the expedite the merits, the case will be mooted by the time the merits are heard. It's a surrender.
No coup then; but Trump can plausibly (at least to his voters) claim that he has acted in the best interests of the USA <_<
Is there hope that a bi-partisan position can be adopted so that the next set of elections can be widely believed in?
Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 02:48:54 AM
Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.
:hug:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 02:48:54 AM
Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.
I don't think it's knowable. I shudder to think how the situation would change if one state rather than three would swing the results, and if the Senate were in Democrat hands. This time we were saved because anyone remotely reasonable just didn't see a path to flipping the results, and even still it's widely believed by Republicans that Biden stole the election.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 02:48:54 AM
Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.
I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.
What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.
But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 23, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
Just as a quick update with Michigan certifying Biden is at 259 "secured" electoral votes. At this point when Nevada likely certifies tomorrow, which would put Biden at 265, the only path Trump would have would be to actually reverse the results in all three remaining states: PA, WI, and AZ. Failure to do so in even one of them fails to prevent Biden from reaching 270. As has been mentioned a lot, he's not going to overturn the results in a single one of these states, so in all real respects Trump's extremely thin gap is basically shut tight now. Note that Pennsylvania's certification no longer appears in doubt, all meaningful legal claims have been dismissed and today was the deadline to file any new ones, and to my knowledge none have been filed. The only reason Boockvar has not certified is she needs to wait for all of Pennsylvania's counties, and as is not unusual in Pennsylvania a couple counties are lagging behind. It is likely she will be able to certify Pennsylvania in 2-3 days at which point Biden will probably be at 275 EVs locked up.
Arizona is basically in no risk of not certifying on the 30th--Mohave County with an entirely Republican canvassing board certified their results today and were the last county to do so. Importantly other Republican counties like Maricopa certified unanimously. The Democrat Arizona SecState has an entirely clear path to certification.
So in short every effort the Trump campaign has undertaken to actually overturn the election has failed. There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.
Additionally a number of significant Republicans broke ranks today. While a majority of the GOP House and Senate still have continued to support Trump's efforts or remain silent, enough Senators and House members have broken away that any attempt at congressional action would be all but impossible. Major figures in the party and close Trump allies like Chrs Christie have come out against continuing the fight. Additionally a large group of CEOs came out today as well advocating against Trump's efforts. This importantly includes several major money donors of the GOP and even some Trump loyalists in the NYC business community who have maintained vague support for him but joined the call to end the fight. While the GOP by and large did not account for us well in this direct and damaging assault on our democratic norms, enough of them did that Trump's political path is also just as closed up as his legal path.
I think in Georgia if you can show fraud, the certification of results can be set aside. The point being that it isn't necessarily "game over" just because Biden gets to 270 in certified states.
Which is tragic because i'm still waiting to get paid out on predictit, which is still giving Trump a 10% chance of winning reelection.
I mean if you can show fraud you'd be doing something Trump has been unable to even attempt to do in 31 cases so far--mind you not only has Trump's team failed to show fraud, when asked by judges they specifically make it clear they aren't even legally asserting fraud. There is substantial difference between saying there is fraud in a tweet or in an interview at a landscaping company and demonstrating fraud to any legal standard.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2020, 09:06:17 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 02:48:54 AM
Perhaps those who predicted a much worse outcome would like to admit they were wrong.
I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.
What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.
But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.
Right, for me I knew this was over because Biden's win involved flipping 5 states vs Hillary and several of those states Democrats controlled the certifying authority. I'm not particularly smart on legal issues, but I knew enough about "ordinary" election lawsuits to know that you need a really close and really convoluted situation to hope to overturn even a single state. And then if you have to do that in some combination of states your task is even harder. It's even harder still if you have to do it with the political authorities in opposition to you in that state.
Like take Florida 2000 where the results were extremely close and there was genuine ballot disputes. It was huge for how that went down that Bush had the nominal lead, but it was even bigger that his party controlled the State legislature, Governor's mansion, and Secretary of State's office. A Democrat Secretary of State in Florida probably doesn't certify in this scenario for example, which changes the legal landscape quite a bit.
Posit a scenario if you will where Biden flipped WI and MI, but not AZ, and where GA was the same margin it was here. That would give you 259 Biden and 263 Trump, with GA being decisive. From what I can tell Raffensperger in Georgia is an actual straight shooter, so I do not think he would just corruptly give that state to Trump by arbitrarily blocking certification of certain counties etc. But Brian Kemp is not a stand up guy, I would be extremely suspicious of him certifying if Georgia was decisive and not just 1 of 6, in the reality we live in Kemp certifying was the most logical thing to do--it gets his office and his state out of the crosshairs to a degree, and he's not actually materially doing much--everyone knows all these other states controlled by Democrats are going to certify for Biden so it's whatever. But with Georgia being the decisive state? I don't think Kemp certifies. In fact I think he's out in public just as strong as Trump is making assertions about improper ballots and etc. I think you end up in a serious legal battle for Georgia in this scenario with Trump trying his hardest to disenfranchise thousands of voters, and the full force of the GOP would be behind him.
Make no mistake, the reason the entirety of the GOP isn't behind Trump is because they see no real path to victory, it's not out of morality.
I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.
I'm ready for him to go away. The clown act has gotten stale.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 24, 2020, 01:29:48 PM
I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.
I forget where but I read an interesting take that this is really just a set up for his version of the stabbed in the back narrative. He needs to put up a show of trying to use the existing system in order to later argue that it doesn't work and needs to be torn down.
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 24, 2020, 02:03:02 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 24, 2020, 01:29:48 PM
I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.
I forget where but I read an interesting take that this is really just a set up for his version of the stabbed in the back narrative. He needs to put up a show of trying to use the existing system in order to later argue that it doesn't work and needs to be torn down.
Well, they are blaming Jews (Soros) and Communists, so... :ph34r:
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 24, 2020, 01:29:48 PM
I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.
I've gotten to see him lose Georgia 3 times. Can he get a fourth? Who knows, but I laugh each time.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2020, 09:06:17 AM
I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.
What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.
But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.
People made their predictions of civil war and coup d'etat and election theft when we believed the polls that had Biden winning easily.
Those things would have required Trump to actually do something besides bluster, so obviously were not going to happen.
Quote from: Habbaku on November 24, 2020, 02:58:40 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 24, 2020, 01:29:48 PM
I know Trump not conceding and trying to string out the electoral process so he could destroy democracy is not a good thing, but I feel like since election night he and his team have basically acted like complete morons and it's felt like every day since then he's lost the election all over again in new and humiliating ways, and that makes me quite happy.
I've gotten to see him lose Georgia 3 times. Can he get a fourth? Who knows, but I laugh each time.
Yeah, it's been a surprising source of comedy and has consistently brightened up my days :lol:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 03:28:48 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2020, 09:06:17 AM
I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.
What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.
But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.
People made their predictions of civil war and coup d'etat and election theft when we believed the polls that had Biden winning easily.
I predicted he simply wouldn't leave the White House before Inauguration day.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 03:28:48 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2020, 09:06:17 AM
I mean he's tried it. There's been a few less scrupulous Republican state level officials going along. As DG says if it was closer, I've no idea how this would go.
What happened was Biden won quite convincingly, both in votes in the states he swung and in the EC margin. Not as convincingly as I'd have liked but enough to make it very difficult.
But 70% of Republicans don't think it was a free and fair election which is challenging from a loser's consent point of view - which is key for a functioning democracy.
People made their predictions of civil war and coup d'etat and election theft when we believed the polls that had Biden winning easily.
Which people? I was worried about those things precisely if the elections were closer than predicted, or if the control of the Senate hinged on one disputed election. Given everything that we observed, with the unassailable lead Biden got, I don't see how you can view it as an affirmation that our electoral system is coup-proof.
Perhaps not proof, but more resistant than some give it credit for.
The drunk managed to drive home from the bar without causing an accident. That showed them!
Quote from: DGuller on November 24, 2020, 04:26:47 PM
Which people? I was worried about those things precisely if the elections were closer than predicted, or if the control of the Senate hinged on one disputed election. Given everything that we observed, with the unassailable lead Biden got, I don't see how you can view it as an affirmation that our electoral system is coup-proof.
I didn't keep a list.
As long as one person has a gun, and at least one person would prefer not to be shot, no system is entirely coup-proof.
But no GOP controlled state legislature showed the least inkling of moving to invalidate the ballot; the military command made it abundantly clear it wasn't interested in invalidating an election; state and federal judges didn't roll over for Guiliani's bonehead court cases. The system worked exactly as it was supposed to.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 05:01:35 PM
But no GOP controlled state legislature showed the least inkling of moving to invalidate the ballot; the military command made it abundantly clear it wasn't interested in invalidating an election; state and federal judges didn't roll over for Guiliani's bonehead court cases. The system worked exactly as it was supposed to.
Because it was futile. The thing about coups is that you have to be really damn sure the coup is going to succeed before you join it. It's one of those things where the boundary between implausible and inevitable is very narrow. You join the coup because you know that everyone else who's needed for the coup to succeed will join. It was implausible for three states to find an excuse to negate the results, so we never got close to the precipice. If election hinged on just one state, with a very narrow vote total and GOP state government, I don't think we would be feeling so relieved now.
Sure the institutions are holding out, I am just worried about the people.
Quote from: DGuller on November 24, 2020, 06:58:42 PM
Because it was futile. The thing about coups is that you have to be really damn sure the coup is going to succeed before you join it. It's one of those things where the boundary between implausible and inevitable is very narrow. You join the coup because you know that everyone else who's needed for the coup to succeed will join. It was implausible for three states to find an excuse to negate the results, so we never got close to the precipice. If election hinged on just one state, with a very narrow vote total and GOP state government, I don't think we would be feeling so relieved now.
I'll drop it.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 07:21:53 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 24, 2020, 06:58:42 PM
Because it was futile. The thing about coups is that you have to be really damn sure the coup is going to succeed before you join it. It's one of those things where the boundary between implausible and inevitable is very narrow. You join the coup because you know that everyone else who's needed for the coup to succeed will join. It was implausible for three states to find an excuse to negate the results, so we never got close to the precipice. If election hinged on just one state, with a very narrow vote total and GOP state government, I don't think we would be feeling so relieved now.
I'll drop it.
:lol: You really shoulda known that would happen.
People love to frighten themselves, and the thread proves it, but they hate to be reminded that the reason they were scared was because they were scaring themselves.
The Big Lie part of Trump's strategy, though, will likely cast a big shadow, as Valmy points out.
I think the thing is that Trump is hardly a Caesar (as an analogy). He's not the 'strongman' who will overthrow the republic. He's not a Marius or Sulla (both of whom were, at least, pretty competent generals). That was never likely to happen.
Trump is more like one of the more obscure early figures in the decline of the Roman republic, who paved the way for guys like Marius, Sulla or Caesar, by weakening the trust people have in the integrity of the institutions of the republic.
The real danger isn't that Trump will pull a coup, the real danger is that some actually competent "strongman" type will take advantage of the weakening of trust in the institutions of the republic and pull a coup some time in the future.
And just to be clear, by coup I mean any illegitimate scheme to gain power. That doesn't mean tanks rolling down the streets, and that doesn't mean that the one performing the coup is not already in power. Some of the history's most consequential coups were not the overthrowing of the ruling government, but rather illegitimately expanding the powers of the ruling government.
At any rate, if there was a coup it was as successful as a Trump casino.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 24, 2020, 08:52:35 PM
At any rate, if there was a coup it was as successful as a Trump casino.
Trump casinos were operating okay for quite a long while, and didn't start going under until Atlantic City in general hit the skids. Whenever you heard of someone getting stabbed or robbed at an Atlantic City casino, you knew it happened at Trump Taj Mahal. You can't have that many robberies and stabbings at a casino that's not successful.
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 23, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.
Is there a possibility of faithless electors in some of the contested States?
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 23, 2020, 11:28:36 PM
In Languish terminology, organized Trumpist resistance has effectively been destroyed. Multiple divisions of the Biden Armored Corps and Kamala's Rangers have encircled and bypassed large pockets of the shattered Trumpist armies. We estimate advance Democratic elements to be in Washington by January 20th.
:showoff:
Quote from: viper37 on November 24, 2020, 09:01:41 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 23, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.
Is there a possibility of faithless electors in some of the contested States?
The electors were all handpicked by the Democrats so it's not like they are going to be influenced by anything but their weird whims, like in 2016 when people were voting for Ron Paul and Spotted Eagle, but they won't vote for Donald Trump.
I don't draw the conclusion that the system worked from the experience of the last 3 weeks. The system performed pretty badly. We watched as the President deluged everyone with outrageous and dangerous anti-democratic propaganda, obstructed the transition process and then openly attempted a coup, albeit pathetically. There was no pushback from his administration - no loud principled resignations. The Attorney General raised his head to make threats about arrests of non-existent fraudsters. The vast majority of national GOP office holders either maintained silence or lead cheers for the President. In a state Trump lost by 140,000 votes, his nonsense managed to sway 2 canvassers in the state's largest county into blocking certification for several hours and one state canvasser into voting against certification despite having zero legal authority to do so.
All this happened despite the fact that Trump's effort was completely shambolic and strategically inane. He spent the entire time sulking in the White House and on the gold course, sending out a few desultory, bizarre tweets, hiring and firing a series of increasing inept lawyers, waiting to the last minute to reach out to leaders in the state legislators. One cannot imagine a weaker effort and yet for nearly 3 weeks, he still hypnotized the vast majority of the national party and managed to convince 70% of Republicans that magic pixies stole his votes at the command of satanic democrats. It's fortunate we don't know what a more organized and determined effort would have accomplished.
Today in Trump legal team news, Jenna Ellis takes to Twitter:
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
10h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnpPyxDXIAEAatz?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
For people asking, this quotation has been attributed to Roosevelt, but there isn't a specific record of him saying this in a speech. I posted it because the ifea itself is true, whether or not he said it! :)
2:14 PM · Nov 25, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Would Teddy Roosevelt even employ the term liberal that way? :hmm:
I don't think that the experience of the last 3 weeks should lead us to conclude that the system performed "badly" so much as t should lead us to conclude that there is too much partisan control of the election process, especially at the lower levels. There is no reason why Congress should allow some partisan knucklehead in Michigan to gum up the canvassing process because he doesn't think that Arizona's canvassing was properly conducted when his party lost there.
It is probably true that a more organized efforts on trump's part could have delayed by several days the confirmation of his loss, but that's because Congress doesn't care, not because the system performed "pretty badly."
In fact, none of the scenarios people were gnashing their teeth about occurred, or even came close to occurring.
I think the tedious procession of farcical lawsuits actually served to drain the energy out of any potential uprising. It was genius, really.
Quote from: The Larch on November 25, 2020, 11:05:43 AM
Would Teddy Roosevelt even employ the term liberal that way? :hmm:
I believe he considered himself a progressive. :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2020, 10:58:52 AM
Today in Trump legal team news, Jenna Ellis takes to Twitter:
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
10h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnpPyxDXIAEAatz?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
For people asking, this quotation has been attributed to Roosevelt, but there isn't a specific record of him saying this in a speech. I posted it because the ifea itself is true, whether or not he said it! :)
2:14 PM · Nov 25, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
... in short, the attribution is itself a lie. :hmm:
Question for the law-talking guys here: Is it normal for a lawyer to debase themselves like this for their client? What do other lawyers think when they see their fellow jurists act like this?
I suspect it depends on what proportion of their business comes from that one client.
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 25, 2020, 12:50:22 PM
Question for the law-talking guys here: Is it normal for a lawyer to debase themselves like this for their client? What do other lawyers think when they see their fellow jurists act like this?
I think you know the answer here. No, it's not normal at all. Yes, we think less of lawyers who act like that.
IN particular as litigators, you're not supposed to identify with your client. You're a professional. Even after 16+ years as a prosecutor I'd like to think I could just as easily walk in as defence counsel if I needed to in the future.
Quote from: Barrister on November 25, 2020, 01:22:19 PM
I think you know the answer here. No, it's not normal at all. Yes, we think less of lawyers who act like that.
IN particular as litigators, you're not supposed to identify with your client. You're a professional. Even after 16+ years as a prosecutor I'd like to think I could just as easily walk in as defence counsel if I needed to in the future.
Also - and this may be very different in the US - but here I just don't think many lawyers go in for that type of publicity/attention seeking on social media. I think Trump, as a client, wants that - he wants to see his lawyers fighting for him on TV and in the newspaper pages because mentally he lives in Page Six.
But there are relatively few "media" lawyers here. It's far more normal that you just get a solicitor reading a statement - some, especially on high profile cases like phone hacking or Assange's extradition will do interviews. I wonder if that's in part a function of the split profession, so the people hiring barristers/advocates are other lawyers who might distrust apublicity hungry QC? :mellow:
Quote from: Valmy on November 24, 2020, 09:33:59 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 24, 2020, 09:01:41 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 23, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
There is all but zero doubt that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on inauguration day.
Is there a possibility of faithless electors in some of the contested States?
The electors were all handpicked by the Democrats so it's not like they are going to be influenced by anything but their weird whims, like in 2016 when people were voting for Ron Paul and Spotted Eagle, but they won't vote for Donald Trump.
Ok.
Are they the same electors who would vote for whomever was chosen by the population (or the State's legislature, if they changed their method of selection) or are there 2 distinct sets of grand electors per State, one for the Dems, one for the GOP and whomevers wins the State has his own people voting in the Electoral College?
The second one. When you vote for Biden you are actually voting for his slate of electors.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2020, 10:58:52 AM
Today in Trump legal team news, Jenna Ellis takes to Twitter:
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
10h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnpPyxDXIAEAatz?format=jpg&name=small)
QuoteJenna Ellis
@JennaEllisEsq
For people asking, this quotation has been attributed to Roosevelt, but there isn't a specific record of him saying this in a speech. I posted it because the ifea itself is true, whether or not he said it! :)
2:14 PM · Nov 25, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
That means, it was liberals who voted and cheered for Trump all this time?? :P
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 25, 2020, 12:50:22 PM
Question for the law-talking guys here: Is it normal for a lawyer to debase themselves like this for their client? What do other lawyers think when they see their fellow jurists act like this?
They're often like that, spouting lies, or rather repeating the lies of their clients. They just avoid doing it overtly in the courtroom. That's why they more often than not push for out of court settlement.
That's my experience with business law. Don't know nothing about criminal law and I hope to never know nothing about it either :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2020, 01:30:37 PM
But there are relatively few "media" lawyers here.
Yeah, media lawyer are a rare thing over here. I can think of one, based in Quebec city who really fits the profile, usually cases against the government. One in Montreal, who had her own tv show for a while, batshit insane crazy nymphomaniac uber-feminist who must be into sadomasochism for sure the way she talks of men, and she's specializes in family law. Maybe one more who specializes in criminal law, often seen on TV in the past, commenting on cases. A mayor/lawyer who I think was disbarred after comments made on his tv show.
But yeah, going in front of the media to tell a lie about their client is virtually unheard of over here. They do it in private.
Quote from: Valmy on November 25, 2020, 03:28:20 PM
The second one. When you vote for Biden you are actually voting for his slate of electors.
thanks. It clarifies things and I'm much less worried about things going any further than this. :)
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 25, 2020, 12:50:22 PM
Question for the law-talking guys here: Is it normal for a lawyer to debase themselves like this for their client? What do other lawyers think when they see their fellow jurists act like this?
In this jurisdiction law society disciplinary proceedings would be commenced which would likely result in suspension and perhaps disbarment. There are a long list of code of ethics violations (in this jurisdiction anyway) on display
My understanding is that Guiliani can be disbarred for his post-election behavior, yeah.
Well Trump does apparently ask where is his Roy Cohn, so that would be an appropriate end to the story.
All our local fascist (sorry, alt-right) press is going bonkers about some ruling by a Pennsylvania judge regarding the certification process that they claim makes Trump the real president-elect at the moment. Any clue about what they're referring to?
Quote from: The Larch on November 26, 2020, 07:24:33 PM
All our local fascist (sorry, alt-right) press is going bonkers about some ruling by a Pennsylvania judge regarding the certification process that they claim makes Trump the real president-elect at the moment. Any clue about what they're referring to?
It doesn't affect the Presidential election, but a PA judge ordered the state to stop certifying downballot elections.
Edit: it's a moronic ruling by a moronic judge. Essentially, the judge buys the idea that the legislature had to have explicit PA Constitutional authority to change the rules for mail-in balloting, even though the subject does not come up in the PA Constitution, which gives the legislature authority to decide how elections are run.
Ironically, the case pits two wannabee republican legislators suing the republican legislature (but naming the democrats in the state as defendants).
Quote from: grumbler on November 26, 2020, 07:31:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 26, 2020, 07:24:33 PM
All our local fascist (sorry, alt-right) press is going bonkers about some ruling by a Pennsylvania judge regarding the certification process that they claim makes Trump the real president-elect at the moment. Any clue about what they're referring to?
It doesn't affect the Presidential election, but a PA judge ordered the state to stop certifying downballot elections.
Edit: it's a moronic ruling by a moronic judge. Essentially, the judge buys the idea that the legislature had to have explicit PA Constitutional authority to change the rules for mail-in balloting, even though the subject does not come up in the PA Constitution, which gives the legislature authority to decide how elections are run.
Ironically, the case pits two wannabee republican legislators suing the republican legislature (but naming the democrats in the state as defendants).
Thanks, it was quite unclear what the real ruling had been, since all articles I could see (almost all articles that came up googling the judge's name were, strangely enough, from our local press rather than American media) went almost straight into validation of Trump's callings for fraud, together with mentioning other rulings in Nevada and Georgia that are also unclear to me, and were even less detailed.
Three days without a post.
Yuge anticlimax.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2020, 06:25:27 PM
Three days without a post.
Yuge anticlimax.
The election is over and the winner is clear. What else is there to discuss in this thread? The antics of the sore loser get boring.
Quote from: Zanza on November 29, 2020, 06:39:03 PM
The election is over and the winner is clear. What else is there to discuss in this thread? The antics of the sore loser get boring.
There is not a great deal to discuss. My comment was more about the lack of fireworks than the posting.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2020, 06:46:15 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 29, 2020, 06:39:03 PM
The election is over and the winner is clear. What else is there to discuss in this thread? The antics of the sore loser get boring.
There is not a great deal to discuss. My comment was more about the lack of fireworks than the posting.
You saw more fireworks when those mail-in ballots were coming in and the stat nerds were watching the numbers. I'd like for things to get back to normal where we argue about debt ceilings and military interventions instead of the shared shock and horror of the daily shit-show that was Donald Trump. You impressed me Yi, rejecting your party is not easy. When the Democrats elect their own authoritarian populist I hope I have the same morale courage to stand up against it.
I would say the Trump administration ends not with a bang but a whimper, but there's still two months left. /fingers crossed
Quote from: Razgovory on November 29, 2020, 07:13:13 PM
You impressed me Yi, rejecting your party is not easy.
Since Tamas is operating under the same false information, I feel the need to clear this up. The Republican party is not "my party." I've voted for Democrats and Republicans in general and primary elections. I've registered as a Republican, a Democrat, and an Independent. I consider myself a right of center swing voter.
Close enough.
The one drop rule.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2020, 07:27:47 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 29, 2020, 07:13:13 PM
You impressed me Yi, rejecting your party is not easy.
Since Tamas is operating under the same false information, I feel the need to clear this up. The Republican party is not "my party." I've voted for Democrats and Republicans in general and primary elections. I've registered as a Republican, a Democrat, and an Independent. I consider myself a right of center swing voter.
Yi swings easy. :ccr:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2020, 08:16:59 PM
The one drop rule.
The first drop rule. Who was your first?
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 30, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
The first drop rule. Who was your first?
I can't remember the first president I voted for.
I remember you worked on Phil Graham's campaign.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2020, 12:48:00 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 30, 2020, 09:11:45 AM
The first drop rule. Who was your first?
I can't remember the first president I voted for.
You never forget your first.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2020, 02:20:21 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 30, 2020, 02:07:10 PM
Ford, eh.
I was 13.
You're older than I thought! :o
So doing the math, you could have first voted for Reagan or Mondale...
Quote from: Barrister on November 30, 2020, 02:25:31 PM
You're older than I thought! :o
So doing the math, you could have first voted for Reagan or Mondale...
I'm half Asian, so people always think I'm younger than I am. ;)
I don't think I voted in the Reagan years.
The first distinct voting memory I have is writing in McCain during Bush v Gore.
Oh, I thought Yi voted when he was 13, not that he was 13 in 1976. :blush:
QuoteWilliam Barr says there is no evidence of widespread fraud in presidential election
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/politics/william-barr-election-2020/index.html
Ooops. I guess the United States will soon have a new Acting Attorney General. That opens a window of opportunity for all the republicans who so far were afraid of offending Trump.
Quote from: Zanza on December 01, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
QuoteWilliam Barr says there is no evidence of widespread fraud in presidential election
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/politics/william-barr-election-2020/index.html
Ooops. I guess the United States will soon have a new Acting Attorney General. That opens a window of opportunity for all the republicans who so far were afraid of offending Trump.
Apparently Barr then was called in to a meeting with Trump that hadn't been on his schedule today.
Quote from: Barrister on December 01, 2020, 04:20:06 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 01, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
QuoteWilliam Barr says there is no evidence of widespread fraud in presidential election
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/politics/william-barr-election-2020/index.html
Ooops. I guess the United States will soon have a new Acting Attorney General. That opens a window of opportunity for all the republicans who so far were afraid of offending Trump.
Apparently Barr then was called in to a meeting with Trump that hadn't been on his schedule today.
:lol: Well....
The Lt Gov of Georgia stated that the election was free of fraud and the President is misinformed. Republicans have, for the most part, been silent when Trump slandered people. Will most of them keep silent now that Trump is targeting them?
Now Rudy is asking for a pardon. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/politics/trump-rudy-giuliani-pardons/index.html
Quote(CNN)President Donald Trump's associates are making appeals to him in the hopes of obtaining pardons before he leaves office, a source familiar with the matter told CNN on Tuesday.
The source said the list of associates broaching the subject of preemptive pardons that would seek to shield those individuals from prosecution includes Rudy Giuliani, who has been leading the President's longshot legal battles to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in his role as Trump's personal attorney.
The New York Times first reported that Giuliani is seeking a preemptive pardon.
Giuliani has denied discussing a preemptive pardon with the President, telling CNN that the "(New York) Times is completely wrong." He further denied he has talked to anyone at the White House about a pardon for himself.
It's not clear what potential criminal exposure Giuliani or other associates are attempting to preempt. But the source familiar with the discussions went on to cite what friends and allies of the President see as hostility from the incoming Biden administration toward Trump associates.
"Don't trust the Dems," the source said, describing the pardons being sought as "blanket" protection from future prosecution.
he appeals come on the heels of Trump's decision to pardon his former national security adviser, Michael Flynn.
Last week, the President granted Flynn a full pardon, absolving him of charges related to lying to federal agents over his contact with the Russian ambassador to the United States.
Flynn's pardon was Trump's second act of clemency related to prosecutions of advisers of the President. Earlier this summer, Trump commuted the sentence of Roger Stone.
Is there such a thing as a preemptive presidential pardon in the USA? :huh:
I was under the impression a presidential pardon occurred after if you were previously found guilty of a crime?
I think they mean a blanket pardon. Trump can't pardon them for acts that haven't happened yet.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 01, 2020, 06:28:39 PM
I think they mean a blanket pardon. Trump can't pardon them for acts that haven't happened yet.
In any case, my question stands: can the President pardon an individual who has not been found guilty, nor even accused so far?
Quote from: viper37 on December 01, 2020, 06:29:47 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 01, 2020, 06:28:39 PM
I think they mean a blanket pardon. Trump can't pardon them for acts that haven't happened yet.
In any case, my question stands: can the President pardon an individual who has not been found guilty, nor even accused so far?
Yes. Nixon for instance was pardoned for any and all federal offenses.
A bribery for Presidential pardons case was just unsealed. This is hard to keep up with.
I kind of hope Trump abuses the shit out of his pardon powers, to the degree that Congress later moves to remove this power from the President altogether. I don't like the idea that the President can pardon people anyway. I realize it'll take a Constitutional amendment to get it removed, so it's therefore super unlikely, but if Trump makes enough idiotic pardons--which given how Trump is it seems likely--then maybe it'll be a possibility.
Can the Lt Gov of Georgia swear on a bible that he was observing Zombie Hugo Chavez during the entire election process so as to be able to affirm to a jury that ZHC did NOT, in fact, inject millions of Democratic votes into the US electronic voting machines?
I thought not. Advantage: Trump Team.
[I have decided, after consideration, that Zombie Hugo Chavez was Peak Trump.* It isn't possible to top that in the few weeks remaining to his term.]
*If that speech had been delivered at the Four Seasons Total Landscaping site, it would have been Peak Anypresident.
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
I kind of hope Trump abuses the shit out of his pardon powers, to the degree that Congress later moves to remove this power from the President altogether. I don't like the idea that the President can pardon people anyway. I realize it'll take a Constitutional amendment to get it removed, so it's therefore super unlikely, but if Trump makes enough idiotic pardons--which given how Trump is it seems likely--then maybe it'll be a possibility.
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Quote from: viper37 on December 01, 2020, 06:29:47 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 01, 2020, 06:28:39 PM
I think they mean a blanket pardon. Trump can't pardon them for acts that haven't happened yet.
In any case, my question stands: can the President pardon an individual who has not been found guilty, nor even accused so far?
The President can, but accepting a pardon, under US law, is considered a concession of guilt. Accepting an "every crime" pardon is effectively confessing to every crime that will ever be seriously alleged.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/another-georgia-county-has-uncovered-2700-missing-votes-secretary-states-office-says/5W734FA755CK3NCR4P7A27DXVM/
This is old news, but not mentioned here. Several thousand ballots found to not have been counted in Georgia.
Skullduggery or boneheadedness?
Hey Fredo, are Fayette and Floyd county Trump country or sane country?
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Right, they'd have to initiate a constitutional amendment to be ratified by the states to change that (I think).
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2020, 09:15:56 PM
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/another-georgia-county-has-uncovered-2700-missing-votes-secretary-states-office-says/5W734FA755CK3NCR4P7A27DXVM/
This is old news, but not mentioned here. Several thousand ballots found to not have been counted in Georgia.
Skullduggery or boneheadedness?
Hey Fredo, are Fayette and Floyd county Trump country or sane country?
Boneheadedness.
I'm not Fredo, but: Fayette is less retarded than Floyd, but still (just barely) Trump country. Floyd is full retard.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2020, 09:15:56 PM
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/another-georgia-county-has-uncovered-2700-missing-votes-secretary-states-office-says/5W734FA755CK3NCR4P7A27DXVM/ (https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/another-georgia-county-has-uncovered-2700-missing-votes-secretary-states-office-says/5W734FA755CK3NCR4P7A27DXVM/)
This is old news, but not mentioned here. Several thousand ballots found to not have been counted in Georgia.
Skullduggery or boneheadedness?
Hey Fredo, are Fayette and Floyd county Trump country or sane country?
that was included in the finaly tally, IIRC. That's why recounts are good, when a vote is tight.
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
I don't like the idea that the President can pardon people anyway.
:yes:
QuoteThe Secretary of State said some 24,500 Georgia Republicans who voted absentee in the June primary, didn't vote in the general election.
Raffensperger told Channel 2 investigative reporter Justin Gray that the president cost himself the election here.
"Those 24,000 people did not vote in the fall. They did not vote absentee because they were told by the president, 'Don't vote absentee it's not secure.' But then they did not vote in person," Raffensperger said.
From the article I linked.
And here is hoping him claiming this election was full of fraud and zombie communists costs the Republicans the Senate runoffs.
That is the straw I am grasping for here :lol:
I appreciate the effort of that Georgia Republican dude, but he's making quite a few assumptions. I'm sure there are always going to be some people voting in the primaries but not in the general, it's bound to happen sometimes. I'm sure it happened to some Democrats as well. We also can't know why they didn't vote in the general.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 01, 2020, 07:19:31 PM
A bribery for Presidential pardons case was just unsealed. This is hard to keep up with.
Ugh, I posted this in the wrong thread.
Have Trump's henchmen violated any state laws in their attempt to destroy democracy?
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
I kind of hope Trump abuses the shit out of his pardon powers, to the degree that Congress later moves to remove this power from the President altogether. I don't like the idea that the President can pardon people anyway. I realize it'll take a Constitutional amendment to get it removed, so it's therefore super unlikely, but if Trump makes enough idiotic pardons--which given how Trump is it seems likely--then maybe it'll be a possibility.
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Are these the famous checks and balances?
Quote from: Solmyr on December 02, 2020, 05:01:47 AM
Are these the famous checks and balances?
I find the pardon power really interesting because, and I have no idea if this is right, but it feels like a real vestige of the 18th century constitution - it is a descent of the royal power to grant mercy. It's not something that necessarily exists in a rational constitutional system (at least without controls), instead it's a sort of legacy of an almost Godlike, gratuitous role of the monarch in the past - even down to individuals petitioning the monarch/president for a pardon.
How many countries don't have a pardon capability? In Sweden the government can grant pardons, when I looked into it just now though it's not perfectly clear to me if they can pardon people for crimes that they haven't been convicted of. Their homepage says no, but the text of the relevant law seems to say it's possible in exceptional circumstances (though the text seems a bit ambigous, I'd have to look into more detail to know for sure) and Wiki sure thinks they can pardon before the fact.
That being said the government using pardons to protect its crime lieutenants would be considered beyond the pale, and more associated with countries like Hungary, Russia, or the US.
Quote from: The Brain on December 02, 2020, 05:35:36 AM
How many countries don't have a pardon capability? In Sweden the government can grant pardons, when I looked into it just now though it's not perfectly clear to me if they can pardon people for crimes that they haven't been convicted of. Their homepage says no, but the text of the relevant law seems to say it's possible in exceptional circumstances (though the text seems a bit ambigous, I'd have to look into more detail to know for sure) and Wiki sure thinks they can pardon before the fact.
Yeah, we have pardons over here too. I'd be surprised if they are not a common feature in most democracies. Can't grant them before there's a judicial sentence, though.
We have them - but they are pretty rare now. Looking it up they've largely been replaced by appeals systems and bodies whose job is to review doubtful/wrongful conviction allegations (the Criminal Case Review Commission) - it is called the royal prerogative of mercy.
This is an interesting bit by a UK lawyer on pardons in general (and Trump's in particular) - basically on how mercy operates with justice, which is different than what Trump is doing:
https://davidallengreen.com/2020/11/pardons-should-be-how-mercy-complements-justice-but-what-happens-when-pardons-undermine-justice/
Over here they were pretty important during the transition to democracy, since for years courts still had to operate with Franco-era laws which had some, well, non-ideal outcomes. There are some cases of courts asking for a pardon after jailing someone.
There's been plenty of controversial ones, too (some of the people involved in the 1981 coup, some involved in the dirty war against ETA). Right now they have come to the fore because of rumors that the socialist government is going to pardon the jailed separatist leaders.
Overall I'd feel better with the pardon power if it was a legislative act rather than a largely unchecked executive one.
Quote from: Valmy on December 01, 2020, 11:07:29 PM
And here is hoping him claiming this election was full of fraud and zombie communists costs the Republicans the Senate runoffs.
That is the straw I am grasping for here :lol:
This may actually happen.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/politics/ronna-mcdaniel-georgia-republicans/index.html
QuoteAt a Saturday campaign stop in Marietta, Georgia, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel attempted to persuade Republicans to vote in the Georgia Senate runoff elections, even as voters expressed ambivalence about expanding "money and work when it's already decided."
Incumbent Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are facing tough reelection battles in two January runoff elections that could determine control of the US Senate.
"It's not decided. This is the key -- it's not decided," McDaniel told a fiery crowd of Republicans who turned the RNC chair's meet-and-greet session Saturday into a public airing of grievances surrounding the November 3 election.
She pointed to the certified results of the November 3 Georgia Senate race that showed Perdue leading Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff by more than 88,000 votes. In Georgia, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the two top vote-getters head to a runoff.
"So if you lose your faith and you don't vote and people walk away -- that will decide it," McDaniel said.
Trump is going to Georgia to campaign for them - which I hadn't expected. But I feel like there's a fairly strong chance that he mainly indulges his grievances and how hard done by he has been by fraud, rather than encouraging people to turn out and vote :ph34r:
Over here a (royal) pardon is only possible in cases where a conviction cannot be overturned using the normal procedures. The Justice department issues the pardon in the name of the king, the executive branch cannot grant one.
Plus, one of two criteria has to be met: New evidence that has come to light after conviction, or poor mental/physical health that renders the sentence moot.
Quote from: Solmyr on December 02, 2020, 05:01:47 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 07:33:03 PM
I kind of hope Trump abuses the shit out of his pardon powers, to the degree that Congress later moves to remove this power from the President altogether. I don't like the idea that the President can pardon people anyway. I realize it'll take a Constitutional amendment to get it removed, so it's therefore super unlikely, but if Trump makes enough idiotic pardons--which given how Trump is it seems likely--then maybe it'll be a possibility.
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Are these the famous checks and balances?
What are the "these" in your question?
Quote from: Maladict on December 02, 2020, 08:06:40 AM
Over here a (royal) pardon is only possible in cases where a conviction cannot be overturned using the normal procedures. The Justice department issues the pardon in the name of the king, the executive branch cannot grant one.
Here it's technically the Queen but it's on recommendation of the government(s). I think it's been used here more for things where there's not a technical issue - so the recent posthumous pardon of Alan Turing (and the campaign for pardons of all people convicted of the gross indecency laws when homosexuality was illegal) or the guy with a conviction who helped save lives by confronting the terrorist in the London Bridge attack. It's more like they were guilty by the standards of the law - but are (now) morally innocent or deserve a clean slate.
QuotePlus, one of two criteria has to be met: New evidence that has come to light after conviction, or poor mental/physical health that renders the sentence moot.
I'm not sure about mental/physical health but "new and compelling" evidence can get a re-trial. I think the process is the Court of Appeal technically quashes the previous trial and orders a new one (we don't have double jeopardy if there's new evidence and it's a serious crime).
Georgia's election official (voting systems manager, I think) has had it with Trump's shenanigans.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1333919015174098950 (https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1333919015174098950)
About presidential pardons, the press here is reporting (quoting NYT) that Trump is planning preventive pardons for Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka, Jared Kushner and Rudy Giuliani.
Is a preventive pardon a real thing? :wacko:
IIRC, yes.
It's preventive in the sense of crime committed but not accused of yet. Not future crimes.
How do preventive pardons work? Can they word them vaguely like "any kind of criminal acts up until the time of the pardon" or do you have to name the acts being pardoned explicitly? The latter could be interesting... :P
Quote from: celedhring on December 02, 2020, 10:22:55 AM
How do preventive pardons work? Can they word them vaguely like "any kind of criminal acts up until the time of the pardon" or do you have to name the acts being pardoned explicitly? The latter could be interesting... :P
Here's the statement from Nixon's pardon.
QuoteNow, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.
Is there any avenue to render the pardon invalid? What if the pardons are used to completely circumvent the rule of law? "Will no one rid me, the one with pardon power, of this troublesome priest?"
Quote from: DGuller on December 02, 2020, 10:30:21 AM
Is there any avenue to render the pardon invalid? What if the pardons are used to completely circumvent the rule of law? "Will no one rid me, the one with pardon power, of this troublesome priest?"
No one knows for sure - it's never been ruled on.
The big outstanding question is what if Trump self-pardons.
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:17:36 PM
The President can, but accepting a pardon, under US law, is considered a concession of guilt. Accepting an "every crime" pardon is effectively confessing to every crime that will ever be seriously alleged.
Nope. While there is commentary in court opinions to that effect, it isn't true. If Don Jr. gets an "every crime" pardon, for example, and is sued in civil court due to harm caused by a crime he may have committed during the period covered by the pardon, he won't have been considered to have already effectively confessed to the action.
Quote from: Barrister on December 02, 2020, 11:11:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 02, 2020, 10:30:21 AM
Is there any avenue to render the pardon invalid? What if the pardons are used to completely circumvent the rule of law? "Will no one rid me, the one with pardon power, of this troublesome priest?"
No one knows for sure - it's never been ruled on.
The big outstanding question is what if Trump self-pardons.
Especially given the report that the DOJ are investigating money being funneled to the White House for pardons. The pardons themselves might be necessary to get away with the corruption to procure the pardons :lol:
Quote from: alfred russel on December 02, 2020, 11:43:23 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:17:36 PM
The President can, but accepting a pardon, under US law, is considered a concession of guilt. Accepting an "every crime" pardon is effectively confessing to every crime that will ever be seriously alleged.
Nope. While there is commentary in court opinions to that effect, it isn't true. If Don Jr. gets an "every crime" pardon, for example, and is sued in civil court due to harm caused by a crime he may have committed during the period covered by the pardon, he won't have been considered to have already effectively confessed to the action.
It's a bit more complicated. The case law indicates that accepting a pardon can be deemed an admission of guilt for certain purposes. One that could impact on Rudy is that accepting the pardon could be evidence of lack of moral fitness to practice before the bar. It can also be considered for sentencing on a non-pardoned offense. Although it may not be sufficient to establish civil liability, it might be admissible into evidence.
Shouldn't be too much of a problem, he already lacks the necessary mental acuity.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 02, 2020, 12:29:37 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 02, 2020, 11:43:23 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:17:36 PM
The President can, but accepting a pardon, under US law, is considered a concession of guilt. Accepting an "every crime" pardon is effectively confessing to every crime that will ever be seriously alleged.
Nope. While there is commentary in court opinions to that effect, it isn't true. If Don Jr. gets an "every crime" pardon, for example, and is sued in civil court due to harm caused by a crime he may have committed during the period covered by the pardon, he won't have been considered to have already effectively confessed to the action.
It's a bit more complicated. The case law indicates that accepting a pardon can be deemed an admission of guilt for certain purposes. One that could impact on Rudy is that accepting the pardon could be evidence of lack of moral fitness to practice before the bar. It can also be considered for sentencing on a non-pardoned offense. Although it may not be sufficient to establish civil liability, it might be admissible into evidence.
Not having looked into the specific law AT ALL so just speculating here, but I can't see how accepting a pardon goes much beyond creating an adverse influence of guilt in the absence of any evidence to the contrary.
With a blanket pardon can the person getting the pardon be forced to testify as to what exactly he is being pardoned for? Also: If you are pardoned for a crime do you get to keep the loot?
Quote from: Razgovory on December 02, 2020, 02:28:14 PM
With a blanket pardon can the person getting the pardon be forced to testify as to what exactly he is being pardoned for?
Yes if they are subject to a proper subpoena or legal process compelling testimony.
Also pardons are only for federal crimes, right? Anything at the state level they're still liable for, if I understood it properly, and the Trumps have several cases in NY state for their business practices.
Quote from: The Larch on December 02, 2020, 02:45:45 PM
Also pardons are only for federal crimes, right? Anything at the state level they're still liable for, if I understood it properly, and the Trumps have several cases in NY state for their business practices.
Yeah he would need to get Cuomo to pardon him for NY crimes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=720O_yBLrTs
The Most Important Speech Trump Has Ever Given.(c)
This is 46 frickin minutes long. I tried to watch but gave up. That's with editing too, you can see the cuts.
A little bit that I did watch was about people told at the voting site that they had already sent in an absentee ballot. That's because those goddamn Democrats filled out an absentee ballot for them, knowing they were Trump voters.
At the very beginning you can see he's reading a teleprompter, because he does that thing where he contorts his body to get his orange face around that complicated middle school syntax. Then a bit I caught later on you can see he's ad-libbing.
Trump saying Trump things is old news.
I'd only have watched it if he gave it on that balcony at the top of the stairs of the porn shop next to Four Seasons Total Landscaping, with customers pushing him aside to get in the door, on national television.
Quote from: The Larch on December 02, 2020, 02:45:45 PM
Also pardons are only for federal crimes, right? Anything at the state level they're still liable for, if I understood it properly, and the Trumps have several cases in NY state for their business practices.
I'm not sure Trump understands the difference. He probably thinks he can pardon anyone for anything.
Out of interest - what about crimes in DC? Presumably they could be pardoned by the President because it's not a state and the Federal government has ultimate authority?
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 03, 2020, 05:48:57 AM
Out of interest - what about crimes in DC? Presumably they could be pardoned by the President because it's not a state and the Federal government has ultimate authority?
This lawsuit seems to suggest no, wouldn't be federal crimes, but I don't really know.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/03/ivanka-trump-quizzed-as-part-of-inauguration-fund-lawsuit
QuoteIvanka Trump quizzed as part of inauguration fund lawsuit
Ivanka Trump was interviewed by attorneys alleging that Donald Trump's 2017 inauguration committee misused donor funds, a new court filing reveals.
The document, first reported by CNN on Wednesday, shows that Ivanka Trump, the president's oldest daughter and a senior White House adviser, was interviewed on Tuesday by attorneys from the Washington, DC, attorney general's office.
The office has filed a lawsuit alleging waste of the nonprofit's funds, accusing the committee of making more than $1m (£746,000) in improper payments to the president's Washington, DC, hotel during the week of the inauguration in 2017.
As part of the suit, they have subpoenaed records from Ivanka Trump; the first lady, Melania Trump; Thomas Barrack Jr, a close friend of the president who chaired the inaugural committee, and others. Barrack was also interviewed last month.
Trump's inaugural committee spent more than $1m to book a ballroom at the Trump International Hotel in the nation's capital as part of a scheme to "grossly overpay" for party space and enrich the president's own family in the process, the District of Columbia's attorney general, Karl Racine, alleges.
He has accused the committee of misusing nonprofit funds and coordinating with the hotel's management and members of the Trump family to arrange the events.
"District law requires nonprofits to use their funds for their stated public purpose, not to benefit private individuals or companies," Racine has said. "In this case, we are seeking to recover the nonprofit funds that were improperly funnelled directly to the Trump family business."
The committee raised an unprecedented $107m to host events celebrating Trump's inauguration in January 2017, but its spending has drawn continued scrutiny.
In a statement, Alan Garten, from the Trump Organization, said that "Ms Trump's only involvement was connecting the parties and instructing the hotel to charge a 'fair market rate,' which the hotel did."
Is this witness(?) for the Trump team at the Michigan hearing drunk or just weird?
https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1334318185772961796?s=20
Oh, wow. Rudy was trying to settle her down. How drunk/crazy do you have to be for Rudy to intervene?
Washington DC is a federal district and technically directly under federal control. Violations of Washington DC's laws that correspond to state laws elsewhere are probably subject to presidential pardons, even if similar laws wouldn't be in any state.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoUilD-XMAAhzOk?format=jpg&name=small)
:unsure:
*insert barrel-scraping sounds*
I never expected Barrack to get involved in Donnie's schemes. :hmm:
Quote from: Syt on December 03, 2020, 08:28:14 AM
Is this witness(?) for the Trump team at the Michigan hearing drunk or just weird?
https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1334318185772961796?s=20
BOTH!!!!!????!?!?!>WDJ0ifuj089ejolkasdcm.,mnvcd9&A^(YE$H@#W
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 03, 2020, 03:35:18 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 03, 2020, 08:28:14 AM
Is this witness(?) for the Trump team at the Michigan hearing drunk or just weird?
https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1334318185772961796?s=20
BOTH!!!!!????!?!?!>WDJ0ifuj089ejolkasdcm.,mnvcd9&A^(YE$H@#W
Laughing stocks.
https://mobile.twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1334783856076087297 (https://mobile.twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1334783856076087297)
Quote from: Josh Marshall @joshtpm
worth noting. For the first time - afaik - Trump is saying that unless he's declared winner of Georgia "his" voters won't have confidence in the election system and won't vote in the runoffs. This has been the GOPs fear. Trumps now brandishing it explicitly as a threat.
Quote from: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
The best way to insure a @KLoeffler and @sendavidperdue VICTORY is to allow signature checks in the Presidential race, which will insure a Georgia Presidential win (very few votes are needed, many will be found). Spirits will soar and everyone will rush out and VOTE! @BrianKempGA
Quote from: Syt on December 03, 2020, 12:46:50 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoUilD-XMAAhzOk?format=jpg&name=small)
:unsure:
I have no idea who those two guys are.
I'm guessing one of them is named Jesse Morgan, maybe.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 04, 2020, 06:24:43 AM
I'm guessing one of them is named Jesse Morgan, maybe.
That is assuming a lot from the Hannity show. Jesse Morgan could be an elite Parler based think tank. Like the Heritage Foundation of extremist social media services.
Jesse Morgan is being haunted by a shadow person.
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 09:26:49 PM
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Right, they'd have to initiate a constitutional amendment to be ratified by the states to change that (I think).
I just saw an article that Rep. Steve Cohen (Democrat from Tennessee) has already proposed legislation to limit the presidential pardon via Constitutional amendment.
Quote from: Caliga on December 04, 2020, 09:22:05 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 01, 2020, 09:26:49 PM
Quote from: grumbler on December 01, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Congress has no power in this arena at all. They can't even write a law forcing the president to use his own Presidential Pardons Office to vet the pardons.
Right, they'd have to initiate a constitutional amendment to be ratified by the states to change that (I think).
I just saw an article that Rep. Steve Cohen (Democrat from Tennessee) has already proposed legislation to limit the presidential pardon via Constitutional amendment.
Trump gets more and more FDR-like every day.
Well..... :huh:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wbCzLJyIQE8
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 05:44:27 PM
Well..... :huh:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wbCzLJyIQE8
Thank you for your application to One America Network. We will be in touch shortly regarding our decision.
Totally fitting, and totally damning, that the last diehard Werewolf defenders of the Trumpreich are these fucking prosperity gospel so-called Christians.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2020, 06:06:58 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 05:44:27 PM
Well..... :huh:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wbCzLJyIQE8
Thank you for your application to One America Network. We will be in touch shortly regarding our decision.
Totally fitting, and totally damning, that the last diehard Werewolf defenders of the Trumpreich are these fucking prosperity gospel so-called Christians.
Oh check this shit out
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 06:13:22 PM
Oh check this shit out
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
Requires me to create a fb account. No thanks.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2020, 06:15:47 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 06:13:22 PM
Oh check this shit out
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
Requires me to create a fb account. No thanks.
Weirdo
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
Why did you paste the same link again?
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 06:45:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2020, 06:15:47 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2020, 06:13:22 PM
Oh check this shit out
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
Requires me to create a fb account. No thanks.
Weirdo
https://m.facebook.com/rightwingwatch/
https://www.rightwingwatch.org
Why did you quote yourself? :lol:
Quote from: Razgovory on December 04, 2020, 06:22:05 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 03, 2020, 12:46:50 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoUilD-XMAAhzOk?format=jpg&name=small)
:unsure:
I have no idea who those two guys are.
They are alleged election irregularities.
Quote from: mongers on December 04, 2020, 08:55:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 04, 2020, 06:22:05 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 03, 2020, 12:46:50 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoUilD-XMAAhzOk?format=jpg&name=small)
:unsure:
I have no idea who those two guys are.
They are alleged election irregularities.
They certainly look like election irregularities. Human irregularities, too, for that matter.
They look like extras for the film
Strange Brew or maybe
Fargo.
Strange Brew is crying out for a remake. Or reboot. Or re-imagining.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 05, 2020, 04:05:06 PM
Strange Brew is crying out for a remake. Or reboot. Or re-imagining.
How could you possibly improve on that movie? You hoser!
Quote from: grumbler on December 05, 2020, 06:07:55 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 05, 2020, 04:05:06 PM
Strange Brew is crying out for a remake. Or reboot. Or re-imagining.
How could you possibly improve on that movie? You hoser!
Modern special effects! Ryan Reynolds!
Seditious :mad:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html
Original story at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-kemp-call-georgia/2020/12/05/fd8d677c-3721-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html
QuoteTrump pressured Georgia governor in call to help overturn Biden's win in state
CNN Digital Expansion CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Veronica Stracqualursi
By Kristen Holmes and Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN
(CNN)President Donald Trump on Saturday called Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, pushing him to convince state legislators to overturn President-elect Joe Biden's win in the state, a source familiar with the conversation told CNN.
Trump asked Kemp to call a special session and convince state legislators to select their own electors that would support him, according to the source. He also asked the Republican governor to order an audit of absentee ballot signatures.
Kemp explained that he did not have the authority to order such an audit and denied the request to call a special session, the source said.
The White House declined to comment on the call, which was first reported by The Washington Post.
The President appeared to reference the call in a tweet Saturday, attacking Kemp and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and calling for a signature audit of the absentee ballot envelopes in the state -- while making false or misleading claims about the potential process. The governor, in response, tweeted that he has already "publicly called for a signature audit three times" -- leading Trump to then double down on his request for Kemp to call for a special session of the state's Legislature.
Kemp spokesman Cody Hall confirmed the governor spoke with the President, but, when asked about the conversation, only said that Trump offered his condolences on the death of Harrison Deal, a young Loeffler campaign staffer.
Trump's call to Kemp, his latest attempt to interfere in the results of the 2020 election, came hours before the President's visit to the state to rally in support of Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler ahead of January's Senate runoff elections. CNN previously reported that the President has publicly pushed for Kemp and Raffensperger, both Republicans, to overturn the state's election results -- demands they have rebuffed.
Hall told CNN earlier this week -- following a separate push from Trump to intervene in the state's elections process -- that "Georgia law prohibits the Governor from interfering in elections."
"The Secretary of State, who is an elected constitutional officer, has oversight over elections that cannot be overridden by executive order," Hall said in a statement at the time. "As the Governor has said repeatedly, he will continue to follow the law and encourage the Secretary of State to take reasonable steps -- including a sample audit of signatures -- to restore trust and address serious issues that have been raised."
Trump's refusal to concede and his continued push of false claims of fraud in Georgia has some Republicans uneasy and concerned that the President could depress turnout in the state's crucial runoff elections that will help determine the balance of power in Congress.
And despite the pummeling from their party leader, Georgia GOP election officials have pushed back against Trump's claims of fraud in the state.
Biden won Georgia by more than 12,000 votes, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the Peach State in nearly three decades. Kemp certified the results of Biden's victory on November 20, following a statewide audit, which included a hand-count of the nearly 5 million ballots cast in the election.
CNN previously reported that Trump had recently bashed Kemp, who is a supporter of his, as a "moron" and a "nut job" during another phone call. And earlier this week, the President publicly criticized the governor in an interview on Fox News, saying he was "ashamed" he had endorsed Kemp.
The governor does not plan to attend Trump's rally in Valdosta, Georgia, Saturday night, due to the sudden death of a close friend of the family, Hall told CNN.
This story has been updated with additional developments Saturday.
CNN's Ryan Nobles contributed to this report.
And this surprises you why.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EolySY_XcAYHlIb?format=jpg&name=large)
Good to see Republicans finally take social distancing seriously.
Yeah that was an embarrassment last night. Loeffler and Perdue are not taking this seriously for whatever reason.
I guess when it is crazy time in Republican land showing up prepared for a debate just shows you are part of the deep state or justifying the corruption that is opposing Trump or whatever. I mean both are slightly favored but it is not like they can expect to win this thing by 15 points or something that would justify blowing this off.
Quote from: Valmy on December 07, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Yeah that was an embarrassment last night. Loeffler and Perdue are not taking this seriously for whatever reason.
I guess when it is crazy time in Republican land showing up prepared for a debate just shows you are part of the deep state or justifying the corruption that is opposing Trump or whatever. I mean both are slightly favored but it is not like they can expect to win this thing by 15 points or something that would justify blowing this off.
Loeffler did debate.
Perdue straight up lost his first debate to Ossoff and skipped the second that was scheduled before the general election. Seems like he is scared to debate for that reason. But he never accepted the Atlanta Press Club's invitation to debate last night. Seems sort of bizarre to think there is an obligation to have a debate before a run off when the 2 candidates running got more than 95% of the vote in round 1.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2020, 01:12:47 PM
Perdue straight up lost his first debate to Ossoff and skipped the second that was scheduled before the general election. Seems like he is scared to debate for that reason. But he never accepted the Atlanta Press Club's invitation to debate last night. Seems sort of bizarre to think there is an obligation to have a debate before a run off when the 2 candidates running got more than 95% of the vote in round 1.
In the UK the traditional response to someone not wanting to debate is for one of the newspapers to get a junior reporter to dress as a giant chicken to harass that politician at all of their public events :blush:
I can only assume the more dignified sounding Atlanta Press Club won't follow that example.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 07, 2020, 01:15:23 PM
I can only assume the more dignified sounding Atlanta Press Club won't follow that example.
Correct. Folks in Atlanta have far too much respect for chickens to demean them with comparisons to timid politicians.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 07, 2020, 01:15:23 PM
In the UK the traditional response to someone not wanting to debate is for one of the newspapers to get a junior reporter to dress as a giant chicken to harass that politician at all of their public events :blush:
I can only assume the more dignified sounding Atlanta Press Club won't follow that example.
The debate was held with an empty podium and only one participant.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2020, 01:12:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 07, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
Yeah that was an embarrassment last night. Loeffler and Perdue are not taking this seriously for whatever reason.
I guess when it is crazy time in Republican land showing up prepared for a debate just shows you are part of the deep state or justifying the corruption that is opposing Trump or whatever. I mean both are slightly favored but it is not like they can expect to win this thing by 15 points or something that would justify blowing this off.
Loeffler did debate.
Perdue straight up lost his first debate to Ossoff and skipped the second that was scheduled before the general election. Seems like he is scared to debate for that reason. But he never accepted the Atlanta Press Club's invitation to debate last night.
I never said Loeffler did not debate, only that her performance was embarrassing.
QuoteSeems sort of bizarre to think there is an obligation to have a debate before a run off when the 2 candidates running got more than 95% of the vote in round 1.
See? I don't get the context because I don't live in Georgia. If the perception is that the debates are pointless then maybe Perdue skipping it might not be bad.
Quote from: Valmy on December 07, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
I never said Loeffler did not debate, only that her performance was embarrassing.
Everything about her campaign has been embarrassing. I've been here since 1996; when the state was still tenuously controlled by democrats. Republicans have thoroughly dominated since ~2000, but while the state has become more even in partisan balance the Republicans have become much more conservative. Loeffler has even run an ad comparing herself to Attila the Hun--with her as the more conservative alternative. But they keep winning.
I don't pretend to have the perception of the senate debates in Georgia. My working assumption is that since Perdue skipped the last debate in the first election, and almost won without a runoff, this won't really hurt him. His campaign is that Ossoff is a lightweight, while Ossoff is arguing Perdue is corrupt. I can see the calculation from Perdue's camp that their candidate is a shitty debator, a debate puts Ossoff on a level stage with a sitting US Senator which makes him look like less of a lightweight, and gives Ossoff a venue to pound his points home.
Quote from: Syt on December 07, 2020, 04:28:25 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EolySY_XcAYHlIb?format=jpg&name=large)
Is that his own hair?
Apparently quite real.
It's an excellent Marv Albert impersonation.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2020, 01:22:37 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 07, 2020, 01:15:23 PM
In the UK the traditional response to someone not wanting to debate is for one of the newspapers to get a junior reporter to dress as a giant chicken to harass that politician at all of their public events :blush:
I can only assume the more dignified sounding Atlanta Press Club won't follow that example.
The debate was held with an empty podium and only one participant.
Now that's dignified.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 07, 2020, 02:59:01 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2020, 01:22:37 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 07, 2020, 01:15:23 PM
In the UK the traditional response to someone not wanting to debate is for one of the newspapers to get a junior reporter to dress as a giant chicken to harass that politician at all of their public events :blush:
I can only assume the more dignified sounding Atlanta Press Club won't follow that example.
The debate was held with an empty podium and only one participant.
Now that's dignified.
Well the premise worked for Clint Eastwood.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2020, 01:56:16 PM
Loeffler has even run an ad comparing herself to Attila the Hun--
Now there's a man who could make a war on Christmas.
V healthy and normal political party:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eot27KQWMAAqzHk?format=png&name=small)
Okay, Trump has had his fun. Congress has humored him enough. We need to wrap this up before someone gets hurt.
This is awesome. I got a text urging me to support the republican senators in the run offs to stop socialism. I figured it was an automated message from some republican group, but decided to troll it anyway. So I responded:
QuoteYou're letting the presidency be stolen from Trump but you want me to vote for other republicans in Georgia? Fat chance. Work on revealing the stolen election first.
But it wasn't automated! They responded to me that we are working on revealing the stolen election but we need to keep the senate to keep the dems from having total control.
I've got to think of the best response here to demoralize whatever person is texting me.
Tell'em you can't win a rigged game. It doesn't matter how many quarters you put into broken slot machine, It will never pay out. Voting in the election is an admission that the vote is not rigged.
"Voting is for Communists, sissies & Democrats"
Raz's suggestion is more subtle, less likely to tip the person off that Dorsey is messing with them.
I went with Raz's suggestion. GF: that would imply I'm just a nonvoter, which just makes me a nonplayer in every election. The play is to make them think i'm a republican voter determined to sit this one out.
While I'm 100% trolling, maybe this will do some good. Maybe some republican activist is going to think that Trump is really undermining the GOP here. :D
Yeah - I think the "fool me once" approach is most likely to work :lol:
Tell them it's the worst election fraud since Eric Crouch stole the Heisman in 2001.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 08, 2020, 11:58:39 AM
Raz's suggestion is more subtle, less likely to tip the person off that Dorsey is messing with them.
:yes: That said, this tactic is undermining the faith in the elections in order to get a political win, one troll at a time. Isn't that what GOP is doing?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 08, 2020, 12:18:21 PM
Tell them it's the worst election fraud since Eric Crouch stole the Heisman in 2001.
:lol:
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 11:01:07 AM
This is awesome. I got a text urging me to support the republican senators in the run offs to stop socialism. I figured it was an automated message from some republican group, but decided to troll it anyway. So I responded:
QuoteYou're letting the presidency be stolen from Trump but you want me to vote for other republicans in Georgia? Fat chance. Work on revealing the stolen election first.
But it wasn't automated! They responded to me that we are working on revealing the stolen election but we need to keep the senate to keep the dems from having total control.
I've got to think of the best response here to demoralize whatever person is texting me.
Recruit the team that wrote up that Ann Frank fanfiction a few years ago.
Noooo! I blew it. :(
The person wrote back, "Thanks for taking the time to chat with me. Have a nice day!"
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 08, 2020, 12:18:21 PM
Tell them it's the worst election fraud since Eric Crouch stole the Heisman in 2001.
Crouch won the heisman in a fair vote, but in the tally that really counted Miami beat Nebraska 37-14 and won the national title. Could have been worse if Miami didn't call off the dogs--they were up 34-0 at the half.
Dorsey was co-MVP and 22-35 passing for 362 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT.
Crouch was 5 - 15 passing for 62 yards and 0 TDs and 1 INT (which was returned for a 47 yard Miami TD, leaving him with just 15 net passing yards). He did have 114 yards rushing, but lost a fumble.
The next year Nebraska went 7-7 and the year after that they fired their coach, and went to the west coast offense. That game can plausibly be credited with killing their program.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 01:32:49 PM
That game can plausibly be credited with killing their program.
How did Miami's program die as a result of winning that game? :huh:
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 01:21:33 PM
Noooo! I blew it. :(
The person wrote back, "Thanks for taking the time to chat with me. Have a nice day!"
What did you do? Maybe it's a good thing that fucking with them doesn't work easily, that could be a sign that a lot of people are trying.
Quote from: Barrister on December 08, 2020, 01:35:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 01:32:49 PM
That game can plausibly be credited with killing their program.
How did Miami's program die as a result of winning that game? :huh:
Miami has had a lot of shit years but is currently 8-1 and #8 in the country. I don't think the program is dead.
Nebraska is in a recruiting wasteland--but for decades had been one of the top programs in the country with a run first option attack. Around the turn of the century, the knock on that style of offense is that it doesn't work against a top tier defense with good team speed. Miami effectively shut it down, which seemed to validate the criticism, and then the program had a couple mediocre years by Nebraska standards. They fired the coach in a season they went 10-3 and went to a conventional offense. Since that transition, the program has sharply declined--only 1 season since 2014 they have had a winning record and are currently 2-4.
Quote from: DGuller on December 08, 2020, 01:41:13 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 01:21:33 PM
Noooo! I blew it. :(
The person wrote back, "Thanks for taking the time to chat with me. Have a nice day!"
What did you do? Maybe it's a good thing that fucking with them doesn't work easily, that could be a sign that a lot of people are trying.
My message was even a toned down version of what Raz suggesed.
Full conversation--after they sent me propaganda to vote republican, I replied, "You're letting the presidency be stolen from Trump but you want me to vote for other republicans in Georgia? Fat chance. Work on revealing the stolen election first."
The response I got was, "We are but we need to keep the Senate as we cannot let the Dems have total control if the house and senate you agree?" [grammar and typo errors are reproduced faithfully]
I said, "You can't win a rigged game. A broken slot machine will never pay out, no matter how many quarters you put in."
I got the response, "Thanks for taking the time to chat with me. Have a great day!"
I guess my dream of trolling this person today has failed. If I don't think of a plan b i might have to do work. :(
Quote from: alfred russel on December 08, 2020, 02:13:43 PM
If I don't think of a plan b i might have to do work. :(
Blue team really ought to spread rumors that the covid vaccine will turn you gay.
Of all the outrageous actions committed by Trumptards lack of punctuation must be the worst.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 08, 2020, 08:06:43 PM
Of all the outrageous actions committed by Trumptards lack of punctuation must be the worst.
Requiring punctuation violates their Constitutional Riiiiights!
I do enjoy the preposterousness of the Texas AG suing all of the other states for electing someone other than Donald Trump. There is no state quite so Trump as Texas. The fact that Trump is from New York City, and so undoubtedly loathes Texas, just makes the Texas dick-sucking more hilarious.
Quote from: grumbler on December 08, 2020, 08:35:06 PM
I do enjoy the preposterousness of the Texas AG suing all of the other states for electing someone other than Donald Trump. There is no state quite so Trump as Texas. The fact that Trump is from New York City, and so undoubtedly loathes Texas, just makes the Texas dick-sucking more hilarious.
:yes: My friend watched one of the seasons of the Apprentice in full. When it came down to the final two contestants, Trump harshly mocked the one from Texas for his use of "y'all", before firing him. My friend found it really ironic how Trump's most loyal supporters are the ones that he didn't even bother hiding disdain for.
Quote from: grumbler on December 08, 2020, 08:35:06 PM
I do enjoy the preposterousness of the Texas AG suing all of the other states for electing someone other than Donald Trump. There is no state quite so Trump as Texas. The fact that Trump is from New York City, and so undoubtedly loathes Texas, just makes the Texas dick-sucking more hilarious.
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
And Ken Paxton, like the other extremists currently taking over the Texas Republican Party, is not even from Texas he is from North Dakota. So what does he care if Trump hates Texas? Paxton doesn't give a fuck about Texas
https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1336508754871812097?s=20
QuoteMikel Jollett
@Mikel_Jollett
So either Clarence Thomas, Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, Samuel Alito, Brian Kemp, Doug Ducey, the FBI, the CIA, and the entire state Republican Parties of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are part of a deep state conspiracy
or
Trump lost.
Quote from: Valmy on December 08, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
Quote from: grumbler on December 08, 2020, 08:35:06 PM
I do enjoy the preposterousness of the Texas AG suing all of the other states for electing someone other than Donald Trump. There is no state quite so Trump as Texas. The fact that Trump is from New York City, and so undoubtedly loathes Texas, just makes the Texas dick-sucking more hilarious.
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
And Ken Paxton, like the other extremists currently taking over the Texas Republican Party, is not even from Texas he is from North Dakota. So what does he care if Trump hates Texas? Paxton doesn't give a fuck about Texas
I have no beef with Texas as such, but Texas did elect that moron, carpetbagger or not.
No one in the entire country is as shameless as the Texas AG.
Quote from: grumbler on December 09, 2020, 01:34:43 AM
I have no beef with Texas as such, but Texas did elect that moron, carpetbagger or not.
No one in the entire country is as shameless as the Texas AG.
Texas voters are very party loyal and right now a bunch of carpetbaggers are throwing the good old boys out of leadership in the Republican Party. I think eventually people will wake up to this but it has been a gradual process. Paxton and Lt. Governor Patrick are very dangerous out of state lunatics that have currently used party hackery to rise to high office.
This guy is the current head of the Texas GOP is a war criminal from Florida who just moved to Texas a few years ago. Pretty soon these fanatics will have taken over our politics and forcing out Texas Republicans for not being purely nutcase enough. We'll see how that goes.
Do these dangerous radicals believe things like Texas is just one of fifty states and it doesn't matter which state you were born in?
Quote from: Valmy on December 09, 2020, 02:35:53 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 09, 2020, 01:34:43 AM
I have no beef with Texas as such, but Texas did elect that moron, carpetbagger or not.
No one in the entire country is as shameless as the Texas AG.
Texas voters are very party loyal and right now a bunch of carpetbaggers are throwing the good old boys out of leadership in the Republican Party. I think eventually people will wake up to this but it has been a gradual process. Paxton and Lt. Governor Patrick are very dangerous out of state lunatics that have currently used party hackery to rise to high office.
This guy is the current head of the Texas GOP is a war criminal from Florida who just moved to Texas a few years ago. Pretty soon these fanatics will have taken over our politics and forcing out Texas Republicans for not being purely nutcase enough. We'll see how that goes.
This lawsuit is basically an application for a Trump pardon by Paxton isn't it?
I've seen a couple of mentions about several other states joining the Texas lawsuit (specifically at least Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina and South Dakota, with an expectation of even more to join shortly), is there any truth to it, or only rumours?
As I said before, I won't be confident that Biden will be president until he's actually sworn in.
Quote from: Valmy on December 08, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
Yes, it's important to remember that state voting populations aren't monoli--er, metal pillars.
Quote from: Habbaku on December 09, 2020, 09:32:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 08, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
Yes, it's important to remember that state voting populations aren't monoli--er, metal pillars.
Yeah this is something that's really important to bear in mind with culture war style polarisation. Important with Brexit here too. You know Trump's top two states in terms of number of votes were also California and Texas :lol:
There's about 4 in 10 New Yorkers who vote for Trump however blue it is, just like 4 in 10 Londoners voted for Brexit. And vice versa.
Quote from: grumbler on December 08, 2020, 08:35:06 PM
I do enjoy the preposterousness of the Texas AG suing all of the other states for electing someone other than Donald Trump. There is no state quite so Trump as Texas. The fact that Trump is from New York City, and so undoubtedly loathes Texas, just makes the Texas dick-sucking more hilarious.
Indeed...I remember when Texans had the right about about people and things from New York City. :(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX2AyjVrrck
Quote from: Habbaku on December 09, 2020, 09:32:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 08, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
Yes, it's important to remember that state voting populations aren't monoli--er, metal pillars.
:lol:
Quote from: Habbaku on December 09, 2020, 09:32:10 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 08, 2020, 10:51:11 PM
More people voted for Biden in Texas than every state except California. Just saying.
Yes, it's important to remember that state voting populations aren't monoli--er, metal pillars.
Monolith (aka a single solid piece of stone) would have been perfectly appropriate here. -_-
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 09, 2020, 02:54:44 AM
Do these dangerous radicals believe things like Texas is just one of fifty states and it doesn't matter which state you were born in?
Even if you were a member of congress for a different state just a few years before? That is not the same thing as having moved here and decided you care about our state and our politics and entering the ring.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 09, 2020, 03:08:57 AM
Quote from: Valmy on December 09, 2020, 02:35:53 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 09, 2020, 01:34:43 AM
I have no beef with Texas as such, but Texas did elect that moron, carpetbagger or not.
No one in the entire country is as shameless as the Texas AG.
Texas voters are very party loyal and right now a bunch of carpetbaggers are throwing the good old boys out of leadership in the Republican Party. I think eventually people will wake up to this but it has been a gradual process. Paxton and Lt. Governor Patrick are very dangerous out of state lunatics that have currently used party hackery to rise to high office.
This guy is the current head of the Texas GOP is a war criminal from Florida who just moved to Texas a few years ago. Pretty soon these fanatics will have taken over our politics and forcing out Texas Republicans for not being purely nutcase enough. We'll see how that goes.
This lawsuit is basically an application for a Trump pardon by Paxton isn't it?
A federal pardon isn't going to fix Paxton's legal problems.
Fall back on the simple explanation: he is a shameless legal hack and partisan Trumpist zealot. Since his jackassery is already legend throughout the world, the filing of such an asinine lawsuit, that would embarrass any self-respecting lawyer, is an easy step for a man devoid of such self-respect.
I hope this lawsuit won't give Supreme Court an opportunity to buy credibility that they do not deserve. They could take on this case and rule 9-0 on it, and suddenly everyone will think that they're above the political fray, when in reality they just know how to stay marginally within bounds.
Quote from: DGuller on December 09, 2020, 04:43:25 PM
I hope this lawsuit won't give Supreme Court an opportunity to buy credibility that they do not deserve. They could take on this case and rule 9-0 on it, and suddenly everyone will think that they're above the political fray, when in reality they just know how to stay marginally within bounds.
I don't think you understand the country. If they take the case and rule 9-0 on it, everyone won't think they are above the political fray: a very sizeable portion of republicans will think their 6 appointees are sleeper democratic operatives.
Yup, their deep state fall back shtick.Their gooooo to.
Armed Trump supporters were out the home of the Michigan Secretary of State's home. Two months ago, several Trump supporters were arrested in a plot to kill the Governor of Michigan. In Kansas a man was arrested for plotting to murder a mayor in Kansas. This is going to keep getting worse.
Well the lack of proof in voter fraud is proof that there is voter fraud, as the media, law enforcement, politicians and judges are disappearing it. Therefor these freedom fighters are justified.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 09, 2020, 07:01:59 PM
Well the lack of proof in voter fraud is proof that there is voter fraud, as the media, law enforcement, politicians and judges are disappearing it. Therefor these freedom fighters are justified.
Yep. If there was no voter fraud, why are the Deep State and the media hiding it?
There are serious questions and questioning the questions is also proof that you hate democracy and America. THere is no way to win so there is no reason to engage. Just have to hope they finish each other off in Parler and don't ruin any one else's lives.
Quote from: The Larch on December 09, 2020, 07:41:52 AM
I've seen a couple of mentions about several other states joining the Texas lawsuit (specifically at least Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina and South Dakota, with an expectation of even more to join shortly), is there any truth to it, or only rumours?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo0jRyZXEAEUglt?format=png&name=900x900)
So... 17 other states have joined in support of Texas? :wacko:
Either this is purely political theatre with no intended consequences or having almost half the country so vehemently opposed to the result of the elections doesn't bode well for civic peace and the sanity of political discourse in the coming years.
It is theater. WIth a very high cover charge.
So some news outlets are reporting that the 17 states have "joined Texas" in this lawsuit by filing an amicus brief, while my understanding was that an amicus brief was filed to avoid taking sides, while still participating.
Am I missing the meaning of amicus curiae, or are these outlets missing it?
This is some of the weirdest shit I've ever seen.
Quote from: grumbler on December 09, 2020, 07:27:50 PM
So some news outlets are reporting that the 17 states have "joined Texas" in this lawsuit by filing an amicus brief, while my understanding was that an amicus brief was filed to avoid taking sides, while still participating.
Am I missing the meaning of amicus curiae, or are these outlets missing it?
Filing an amicus brief means you aren't joining the lawsuit as a party, but it's generally not fair to say that the amicus is 'avoiding taking sides'. They definitely have a point of view that usually more-or-less coincides with one of the parties. If you didn't have something to say about the question at hand you wouldn't file an amicus brief.
Quote from: grumbler on December 09, 2020, 07:27:50 PM
So some news outlets are reporting that the 17 states have "joined Texas" in this lawsuit by filing an amicus brief, while my understanding was that an amicus brief was filed to avoid taking sides, while still participating.
It may be different in the US but amicus in UK and the European courts normally have a side and a position. It may not align exactly with either side but it's basically to make sure that their, relevant points are heard by the court.
Edit: Same as BBoy says.
An example in the UK would be that regulators quite often join - so the actual case may be between say an individual and some company/organisation they're alleging has broken the regulation. The regulator will often join to advance their interpretation in the courts.
I hope Rudy gets better - but I am particularly disappointed he can't be involved in this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo1TWjMUYAAMR6Y?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Razgovory on December 09, 2020, 09:28:59 PM
This is some of the weirdest shit I've ever seen.
Not really if you know Donald's history. If at first you don't succeed, sue, sue again.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 10, 2020, 07:54:50 AM
I hope Rudy gets better - but I am particularly disappointed he can't be involved in this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo1TWjMUYAAMR6Y?format=jpg&name=small)
thats the same dumbass who wrote an opinion piece that came out shortly after Harris was nominated as VP saying she wasn't eligible since her parents weren't naturalized citizens at time of her birth.
Quote from: Caliga on December 10, 2020, 08:58:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 09, 2020, 09:28:59 PM
This is some of the weirdest shit I've ever seen.
Not really if you know Donald's history. If at first you don't succeed, sue, sue again.
Well, haven't seen Donald Trump's history. Specifically I find it extremely weird that states are suing other states because they picked the wrong candidate.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 10, 2020, 10:02:36 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 10, 2020, 08:58:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 09, 2020, 09:28:59 PM
This is some of the weirdest shit I've ever seen.
Not really if you know Donald's history. If at first you don't succeed, sue, sue again.
Well, haven't seen Donald Trump's history. Specifically I find it extremely weird that states are suing other states because they picked the wrong candidate.
They're run by states run by The Trump Party. One of the basic planks is if Trump says blue is green, so do they.
:yeah:
QuoteMany of you have written to us to ask about the timeline for closing the remaining election markets, or to advise either that we take action or refrain from doing so. We want you to know we are listening to you and appreciate your input.
As you know, as of this moment, the outcome of the presidential election in several states still remains the subject of litigation in state and federal courts, including the US Supreme Court. This has created unprecedented uncertainty well beyond the time that election markets normally settle.
In light of these ongoing disputes, PredictIt currently anticipates that we will begin settling markets on individual state results in accordance with each market's rules only after electors have cast their votes on Dec. 14, unless in our view there is a conclusive outcome before then.
In the meantime, traders who wish to exit their positions should be able to sell their shares, as trading continues in most markets at this time.
Thank you for your patience.
PredictIt Team
Hopefully predictit doesn't piss off too many trumptards. I'll wait to get their money from this election in order to get more of it in future markets.
I'm hopeful their delays in calling the markets this time around will be enough to assuage them. Who knows, though. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if they started their own Trump-branded betting markets, with blackjack. And hookers.
Quote from: Habbaku on December 10, 2020, 11:41:11 AM
I'm hopeful their delays in calling the markets this time around will be enough to assuage them. Who knows, though. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if they started their own Trump-branded betting markets, with blackjack. And hookers.
Trump has a 14% chance of winning, per the predictit markets. Which is of course insane, but presumably the people betting on Trump today would be pissed off if they closed while this is still being litigated.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2020, 11:38:06 AM
Hopefully predictit doesn't piss off too many trumptards. I'll wait to get their money from this election in order to get more of it in future markets.
You think there will still be some crumbs to pick up after Trump is done with them?
Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2020, 11:48:29 AM
Trump has a 14% chance of winning, per the predictit markets. Which is of course insane, but presumably the people betting on Trump today would be pissed off if they closed while this is still being litigated.
That could just mean that was the last bet placed.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 10, 2020, 05:38:08 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 10, 2020, 11:48:29 AM
Trump has a 14% chance of winning, per the predictit markets. Which is of course insane, but presumably the people betting on Trump today would be pissed off if they closed while this is still being litigated.
That could just mean that was the last bet placed.
It is an active market--yesterday 47.9 thousand "shares" traded on it--and it is consistent with all the other markets. For example, that Bill Barr will be the Attorney General on Feb. 15, or that the republicans will be the winning party for president, or that the winner of the South Carolina democratic primary won't be elected president.
Those are some really specific bets. Can I bet that a person under 74 years old won't be elected president?
Quote from: Solmyr on December 11, 2020, 04:29:24 AM
Those are some really specific bets. Can I bet that a person under 74 years old won't be elected president?
Loopholes for getting around position limits I'm guessing.
Quote from: Solmyr on December 11, 2020, 04:29:24 AM
Those are some really specific bets. Can I bet that a person under 74 years old won't be elected president?
No, they have to propose the markets.
I think Minsky is right though. To be legal the site agreed to some really specific limits: no one can bet more than $850 bet on any contract, and no more than 5,000 people can bet in any one market.
Apparently 106 GOP members of the House of Representatives have filed an amicus brief in support of Texas's case in front of the Supreme Court?
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/529717-100-house-republicans-sign-brief-backing-texas-suit-challenging-election
QuoteMore than 100 House Republicans sign brief backing Texas lawsuit challenging election results
More than 100 House Republicans on Thursday signed an amicus brief in support of the Texas lawsuit aimed at overturning the election results in four swing states — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that handed Democrat Joe Biden the White House.
"This brief presents [our] concern as Members of Congress, shared by untold millions of their constituents, that the unconstitutional irregularities involved in the 2020 presidential election cast doubt upon its outcome and the integrity of the American system of elections," states the brief signed by 106 GOP lawmakers.
Outgoing Republican Study Committee Chairman Mike Johnson (La.) — one of President Trump's closest allies in the House, having served on his impeachment defense team — helped lead the effort to garner support from his GOP colleagues for the brief. Johnson is joining the GOP leadership team in the new Congress.
"President Trump called me this morning to let me know how much he appreciates the amicus brief we are filing on behalf of Members of Congress. Indeed, 'this is the big one!' " Johnson tweeted Wednesday.
Other key Republicans who signed the brief include Minority Whip Steve Scalise (La.); Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee; Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), the chair of the conservative Freedom Caucus; and Rep. Jim Banks (Ind.), the incoming Republican Study Committee chairman.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), another top Trump ally, is not among the signatories. Neither is GOP Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (Wyo.). McCarthy twice declined to comment to reporters Thursday when directly asked if he supported the Texas lawsuit.
"The president has a right for every legal challenge to be heard. He has the right to go to the Supreme Court with it, yes," McCarthy said.
The Electoral College is scheduled to meet on Monday to cast their votes, with Congress slated to vote on certifying the results Jan. 6.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) on Tuesday filed a lawsuit to the Supreme Court aimed at blocking electors from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia from certifying Biden's victory. Paxton alleges the states' mail-in voting efforts during the pandemic were unconstitutional. Attorneys general from 18 other red states have joined that lawsuit.
The Trump campaign has largely been unsuccessful in its legal efforts to challenge the election results; dozens of challenges filed by Trump or his allies have been rejected by the courts. Trump has asked Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a former Texas solicitor general, to argue the latest case before the Supreme Court, The New York Times reported.
But the last-ditch Hail Mary has divided Republicans on Capitol Hill — and in the powerful Texas congressional delegation itself. For weeks, Rep. Kay Granger (Texas), the top Republican on the powerful Appropriations Committee, has been telling Trump it's time to "move on" and accept defeat. And Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a vocal Trump backer, voiced his concerns about the lawsuit on Twitter, opting not to sign on.
"Respectfully, I will not join because I believe the case itself represents a dangerous violation of federalism & sets a precedent to have one state asking federal courts to police the voting procedures of other states," Roy said in a series of tweets.
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), a member of the GOP leadership team, has also questioned the merit of the suit.
"You know, it's very unusual because when a state sues a state, the Supreme Court of the United States has original jurisdiction," Cornyn told CNN, "so you don't have to go through the ordinary procedure. I read just the summary of it, and I frankly struggle to understand the legal theory of it."
Yes, it's very important to those 106 that they be seen as out and front supporting Trump for when 2022/2024 comes around so they can say they never believed Biden won anyway.
Seeing things like that just reinforces my belief that had the election been closer, there would be a definitive attempt to change the outcome by legal shenanigans at all levels. Look at how much support there is for overturning an election that wasn't close at all, based on narratives that don't stand up to even a second of scrutiny. I think a lot of Republicans who haven't joined that movement have abstained only because the hurdle to overturn the results is too high.
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2020, 11:10:45 AM
Seeing things like that just reinforces my belief that had the election been closer, there would be a definitive attempt to change the outcome by legal shenanigans at all levels. Look at how much support there is for overturning an election that wasn't close at all, based on narratives that don't stand up to even a second of scrutiny. I think a lot of Republicans who haven't joined that movement have abstained only because the hurdle to overturn the results is too high.
There is a massive rubicon that has never been crossed: ignoring that one candidate got more counted votes. Filing and supporting really dumb lawsuits isn't the same thing.
Do you remember back before the election we were debating whether mail in ballots received after election day (but mailed before) should be counted? This is exactly why I don't think that should be allowed. Get the ballots to people with plenty of time, let them verify the ballots were received prior to election day, and a way to remedy (on or before election day) if not.
But imagine this all came down to Pennsylvania and it was Florida 2000 type of close. There are likely thousands of absentee ballots that never got cast for whatever reason: there is just so much opportunity to try to submit late ballots and argue the date of the postmark (or absence of postmark), discover lost ballots in the mail room, etc. One side would be deeply aggrieved and probably never accept the result. If all the ballots are in an amorphous blob of "absentee ballots" received on or before election day, once they are counted there isn't a whole lot the losing party can really argue other than "voter intent" on specific ballots.
If you are going to disenfranchise every voter who votes by election day but whose ballot isn't received by election day, then you need some system other than the US mail to allow people to cast ballots other than in the polling places. The US mail isn't under the control of the voter, and no one should be disenfranchised because the USPS deliberately or incompetently fails to deliver posted ballots.
I'd have no problem with a rule that says that ballots have to be postmarked before election day, but even if that rule were in place, we'd still see vote-counting days after the election.
Quote from: grumbler on December 11, 2020, 11:43:04 AM
If you are going to disenfranchise every voter who votes by election day but whose ballot isn't received by election day, then you need some system other than the US mail to allow people to cast ballots other than in the polling places. The US mail isn't under the control of the voter, and no one should be disenfranchised because the USPS deliberately or incompetently fails to deliver posted ballots.
I'd have no problem with a rule that says that ballots have to be postmarked before election day, but even if that rule were in place, we'd still see vote-counting days after the election.
Some states (I think Vermont for example) have rules requiring the return of ballots by election day, and it works. In any event every state disenfranchises mail in voters that the USPS deliberately or incompetently failed by some date.
We now have the ability to check whether the election office has received the ballot before the election. The voter already has to vote and then get their vote received by their precinct by certain dates. No reason these dates have to be different.
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2020, 11:10:45 AM
Seeing things like that just reinforces my belief that had the election been closer, there would be a definitive attempt to change the outcome by legal shenanigans at all levels. Look at how much support there is for overturning an election that wasn't close at all, based on narratives that don't stand up to even a second of scrutiny. I think a lot of Republicans who haven't joined that movement have abstained only because the hurdle to overturn the results is too high.
GIve it time. Screaming that only a traitor would question the narrative will burn down resistance.
It's interesting that the 2020 GOP is so intent on denying the voting rights of US military serving overseas (who always have submitted mail ballots received after election day) . . .
There have been many silly lawsuits brought this election season but the Texas case is something else. It is not limited to asking for recounts, or verifications, or observer rights, or even exclusion of a category of "tainted" ballots. It is demanding that entire states be completely disenfranchised and be barred from appointing Electors. short of physical invasion or embargo, there is no more aggressive and hostile act that one state can take towards a sister American state. It is beyond the pale, and revolting hypocrisy coming from a state like Texas, historically so vocal in trumpeting its own sovereign attributes. The fact that over 100 legislators have signed onto this offensive piece of legal excrement is a disturbing sign.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 11, 2020, 12:18:13 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 11, 2020, 11:10:45 AM
Seeing things like that just reinforces my belief that had the election been closer, there would be a definitive attempt to change the outcome by legal shenanigans at all levels. Look at how much support there is for overturning an election that wasn't close at all, based on narratives that don't stand up to even a second of scrutiny. I think a lot of Republicans who haven't joined that movement have abstained only because the hurdle to overturn the results is too high.
GIve it time. Screaming that only a traitor would question the narrative will burn down resistance.
The narrative is the treachery. You can always tell what Trump is up to by the words he uses to accuse others.
Money well spent according to Moscow.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 12:23:53 PM
The narrative is the treachery. You can always tell what Trump is up to by the words he uses to accuse others.
Interestingly enough, that rule also works well on Russia.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 12:22:44 PM
It's interesting that the 2020 GOP is so intent on denying the voting rights of US military serving overseas (who always have submitted mail ballots received after election day) . . .
Is anyone in the GOP proposing this? It wouldn't be to their (expected) advantage so I wouldn't think they would do so.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo-NVfoXYAMbpK2?format=jpg&name=large)
The "sates" [sic] of New Nevada and New California will show us the way!
https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1337443032636010508
Quote from: Habbaku on December 11, 2020, 01:05:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo-NVfoXYAMbpK2?format=jpg&name=large)
The "sates" [sic] of New Nevada and New California will show us the way!
https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1337443032636010508
The state of "Lousiana" is already involved (though I suspect that this is simply because the AG of Louisiana is too moronic to properly spell his own state's name).
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Vr-0gDy3fZU/maxresdefault.jpg)
:unsure:
I don't know what is going on anymore.
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2020, 01:47:06 PM
I don't know what is going on anymore.
Amoral opportunists are pissing on the country so that they can get a few crumbs from Trump.
This just in: Narnia has just joined the Texas lawsuit.
It's as if they're in a chicken race.
Roy Moore put in an amicus, so yes this is the mother of all legal shit shows.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 11, 2020, 02:31:56 PM
It's as if they're in a chicken race.
:huh: Who is "they" and what is a "chicken race?"
Quote from: Razgovory on December 11, 2020, 02:22:36 PM
This just in: Narnia has just joined the Texas lawsuit.
Emperor
NortonDonald should be proclaimed shortly.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 03:08:25 PM
Roy Moore put in an amicus, so yes this is the mother of all legal shit shows.
I'm just a poor, humble Alberta trial lawyer and the ways of appellate courts scare and confuse me, but I could have sworn you needed to get leave to file an
amicus brief...
(you do in order to appear as an intervener in Canada)
https://www.vice.com/en/article/7k94kz/giuliani-says-democrats-used-usb-ports-passed-around-like-vials-of-heroin-to-commit-election-fraud?utm_source=vicenewsfacebook&fbclid=IwAR3tJL5pb56eVlX63Tdh9KmwSKlc-QcdZ-MaEtI4e67z1bnNdkAuXn8ecVU (https://www.vice.com/en/article/7k94kz/giuliani-says-democrats-used-usb-ports-passed-around-like-vials-of-heroin-to-commit-election-fraud?utm_source=vicenewsfacebook&fbclid=IwAR3tJL5pb56eVlX63Tdh9KmwSKlc-QcdZ-MaEtI4e67z1bnNdkAuXn8ecVU)
Why? Just why?
QuoteRudy Giuliani was once supposed to be Donald Trump's cybersecurity advisor, even though his only credentials in the field of information security were that he scammed some people into thinking he was a cybersecurity expert.
This week, Giuliani proved once again that he has no idea what he's talking about.
In a Zoom call with Georgia legislators on Thursday, Giuliani went on one of his usual baseless rants about election fraud, claiming that the Democrats are covering it up with the aid of Republican politicians in the state. He then said something that we have spent hours trying to decipher.
He said that some people were "quite obviously surreptitiously passing around USB ports as if they are vials of heroin or cocaine. It's obvious to anyone who is a criminal investigator or prosecutor that they were engaged in surreptitious illegal activity."
Later, he claimed that prosecutors should search poll workers home for "evidence of USB ports, for evidence of voter fraud because they were obviously engaged in it."
Do you have any idea what the hell Giuliani is talking about? We'd love to hear from you. Using a non-work phone or computer, you can contact Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai securely on Signal at +1 917 257 1382, OTR chat at [email protected], or email [email protected].
I really wish I could explain to you how anyone could be passing around USB ports. A port is where you plug something, not something you carry around, unless you're carrying around a computer or laptop. It's more likely Giuliani was referring to USB drives, which are used in some states to move votes from voting machines that should be isolated from the internet. For the record, there has been no evidence that moving data from voting machines to other computers' via flash drives led to any fraud whatsoever. In fact, of the roughly 50 lawsuits filed by Trump's elite team of lawyers, 35 have already been dropped or dismissed as of Friday.
And even if we accept that he meant USB drives, I wish I could explain how that's comparable to passing around drugs.
It's almost as if Giuliani's cyberbrain was hacked into by a Cyberpunk 2077 character who's talking about black market cyberdecks or something. Ultimately, it's impossible to say what he means because he has no idea what he's talking about.
Quote from: Barrister on December 11, 2020, 04:09:25 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 03:08:25 PM
Roy Moore put in an amicus, so yes this is the mother of all legal shit shows.
I'm just a poor, humble Alberta trial lawyer and the ways of appellate courts scare and confuse me, but I could have sworn you needed to get leave to file an amicus brief...
(you do in order to appear as an intervener in Canada)
Roy Moore has leave from the Lord God himself, who conferred the amicus brief upon Moore at Mt. Sinai.
Meanwhile my Congressman Bill Pascrell has written to Speaker Pelosi, asking her to deny seats to the members signing the amicus on the grounds they are insurrectionists barred from serving by the 14th Amendment.
Texas crazy thinks its crazy but they haven't seen real crazy till they've seen Jersey crazy.
My do nothing worthless representative did not sign this crazy thing. I guess it shouldn't surprise me that John Carter (TX-31) most impresses me by not doing things because that is his specialty.
The Martian?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 11, 2020, 05:09:10 PM
The Martian?
:huh: John Carter of book fame was not a Martian. He was just
on Mars, interacting with Martians. In fact, as I recall, he wasn't just an earthling, he was an Insurrectionist.
Well, he was John Carter of Mars in the last book title...
Quote from: PDH on December 11, 2020, 06:24:51 PM
Well, he was John Carter of Mars in the last book title...
:lol: So, by that logic, Tarzan of the Apes is an ape? (https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51JUuF8pAbL._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
Well, sorta...
Quote from: PDH on December 11, 2020, 07:59:38 PM
Well, sorta...
(https://cdn0.tnwcdn.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2015/08/thats-racist.gif)
We consider Einstein an American, don't we?
Texas lawsuit was rejected by the Supreme Court, because, well, Texas has no grounds to dictate was goes on in other States. States' rights & all that. ;)
Speaking of which, the leader of Texas GOP just talked about seceding from the Union, following said rejection. God bless America Texicana!
This country never ceased to amaze me with all the weird shit going on.
Ah, maybe boring is a-ok after all :P
QuoteHowever, the state cannot legally secede from the country, according to multiple reports.
I am glad the press took the time to look of some of Gen. Sherman's dispatches. :sleep:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 05:01:40 PM
Meanwhile my Congressman Bill Pascrell has written to Speaker Pelosi, asking her to deny seats to the members signing the amicus on the grounds they are insurrectionists barred from serving by the 14th Amendment.
Texas crazy thinks its crazy but they haven't seen real crazy till they've seen Jersey crazy.
I don't think it's crazy to deny seats to GOP congressmen who signed that amicus brief who are from the 4 particular states in question. If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Discussing the ape-ethnicity of Tarzan seems a more serious topic than discussing the legal strategies of the Republicans attempting to overturn the election ...
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2020, 04:36:48 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 11, 2020, 05:01:40 PM
Meanwhile my Congressman Bill Pascrell has written to Speaker Pelosi, asking her to deny seats to the members signing the amicus on the grounds they are insurrectionists barred from serving by the 14th Amendment.
Texas crazy thinks its crazy but they haven't seen real crazy till they've seen Jersey crazy.
I don't think it's crazy to deny seats to GOP congressmen who signed that amicus brief who are from the 4 particular states in question. If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but... they only mean tthat the Presidential election was fixed. The rest were all fine. Which is proof, when you think about it, that the presidential election was fixed. Because they didn't want to raise suspicion, but they did anyway because righteous lawbiding Americans know what to look for.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2020, 04:36:48 AM
If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Because they got more votes than their opponents.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2020, 10:30:27 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2020, 04:36:48 AM
If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Because they got more votes than their opponents.
But their argument is that no one knows who got the most votes, because cheating and stuff. If that's true of the Presidential election, then their own elections are tainted. If they think the election results for their states should be thrown out because of fraud, then they are claiming a seat that they themselves say was gained fraudulently.
Quote from: grumbler on December 12, 2020, 11:29:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2020, 10:30:27 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2020, 04:36:48 AM
If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Because they got more votes than their opponents.
But their argument is that no one knows who got the most votes, because cheating and stuff. If that's true of the Presidential election, then their own elections are tainted. If they think the election results for their states should be thrown out because of fraud, then they are claiming a seat that they themselves say was gained fraudulently.
But it wasn't gained fraudulently.
Quote from: The Brain on December 12, 2020, 11:33:58 AM
Quote from: grumbler on December 12, 2020, 11:29:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2020, 10:30:27 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2020, 04:36:48 AM
If they think the election in their own state was illegitimate, why should we seat them.
Because they got more votes than their opponents.
But their argument is that no one knows who got the most votes, because cheating and stuff. If that's true of the Presidential election, then their own elections are tainted. If they think the election results for their states should be thrown out because of fraud, then they are claiming a seat that they themselves say was gained fraudulently.
But it wasn't gained fraudulently.
That's true, but they are
claiming that the election was fraudulent. It would serve them right to be denied seating based on their claims. Won't happen, of course, but we can dream.
Quote from: viper37 on December 12, 2020, 02:34:28 AM
Texas lawsuit was rejected by the Supreme Court, because, well, Texas has no grounds to dictate was goes on in other States. States' rights & all that. ;)
Speaking of which, the leader of Texas GOP just talked about seceding from the Union, following said rejection. God bless America Texicana!
This country never ceased to amaze me with all the weird shit going on.
Ah, maybe boring is a-ok after all :P
The leader of the Texas GOP is a former Florida Congressman snd war criminal who just moved here a few years ago. Politics is no longer local, he is speaking for a segment of the national GOP, not Texas.
Wisconsin case tossed as well. Thanks for the money, Trumpists!
Quote from: Valmy on December 12, 2020, 04:34:24 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 12, 2020, 02:34:28 AM
Texas lawsuit was rejected by the Supreme Court, because, well, Texas has no grounds to dictate was goes on in other States. States' rights & all that. ;)
Speaking of which, the leader of Texas GOP just talked about seceding from the Union, following said rejection. God bless America Texicana!
This country never ceased to amaze me with all the weird shit going on.
Ah, maybe boring is a-ok after all :P
The leader of the Texas GOP is a former Florida Congressman snd war criminal who just moved here a few years ago. Politics is no longer local, he is speaking for a segment of the national GOP, not Texas.
He's speaking for the segment of the Texas GOP that made him leader. :mellow:
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 12, 2020, 06:00:34 PM
He's speaking for the segment of the Texas GOP that made him leader. :mellow:
Oh? I thought he was representing a segment of the Borneo Communist party. Thinks for clearing that shit up for me.
So, what's the point of this? Is there any long term goal to it?
QuoteTrump Campaign to Run Ads Promoting Effort to Overturn Election
TV campaign begins as Trump has repeatedly failed in court
Commercial repeats debunked claims in Pennsylvania, Georgia
President Donald Trump's campaign plans to buy ads on unspecified cable television networks to promote his effort to overturn the election he lost, highlighting claims that have been refuted by elections officials and dismissed by judges across the country.
One commercial claims that mail-in ballots were "a recipe for fraud" and urges viewers to "contact your legislators today." Trump has sought to persuade Republican state lawmakers in several battleground states to override voters and award him their states' Electoral College votes.
The campaign did not say in a release how much it would spend on the ads or which networks would run them. Trump and the Republican Party have raised about $208 million since the election. The campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday evening.
One ad shows footage of ballots being pulled from under a table at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, where ballots were counted as a narrator decries "suitcases of ballots added in secret in Georgia."
But Gabriel Sterling, Georgia's Republican election system manager, has said the "suitcases" were standard ballot-handling boxes and that the video was innocent. The entire video shows election workers had been preparing to go home and had packed up uncounted ballots for the night, before being told they had to stay and keep counting, Sterling has said.
The commercial also highlights "poll watchers denied access in Pennsylvania," part of the Trump campaign's complaint that Republican observers weren't allowed to monitor the counting of mail-in ballots in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Yet Republicans never provided evidence of actual fraud that would justify invalidating legally cast votes, just complaints that observers were kept too far away. While observers were kept behind barriers at a distance in Philadelphia, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the state's elections code doesn't specify how close they are allowed and that county officials have discretion in setting the limit.
The president and his allies have failed in courts across the country to convince judges that their claims of a fraudulent election have merit. Attorney General William Barr has said the Department of Justice hasn't seen evidence of widespread fraud in the election.
On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a bid by Texas and Trump to nullify the election results in four pivotal states.
Quote from: The Larch on December 12, 2020, 07:19:23 PM
So, what's the point of this? Is there any long term goal to it?
Trump personally thinks that accepting defeat in the election would make him look like a pathetic weakling, and that this campaign makes him look like a strongman who goes 15 rounds if necessary. For Republicans it's part of their effort to dismantle democracy in America. If, when it's all done, a significant part of the country thinks that the 2020 election was an evil coup orchestrated by Jews and Latin American countries then that's a good foundation for their continuing efforts in the years to come. As for why Republicans want to end democracy... I don't know exactly, but it may be tied to their strong anti-American feelings and Putin worship.
To keep getting money from the dip shits who are gullible enough to believe him
I assume it is mostly just a grift game - get the suckers to donate money to a cause that cannot succeed.
However, there is also an element of preparing the ground for more serious fights to overturn close elections in the future. They are conditioning their "tribe" to not abide by the norms of democracy (to accept defeat in the hopes of doing better in the future).
Over on The_Donald, they seem to think that the next stage is Trump using the military to establish martial law and thus having his legal cases heard in military courts.
I just learned that Biden spent 60% more than Trump, and Democrats overall spent 80% more than Republicans on their campaigns.
Trumpists turning on the GOP:
https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411 (https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2020, 05:07:36 AM
I just learned that Biden spent 60% more than Trump, and Democrats overall spent 80% more than Republicans on their campaigns.
They spent it all on fixing the vote and stealing the election from good honest hardworking americans and only a commie would sayotherwise because the Party is always right
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2020, 05:07:36 AM
I just learned that Biden spent 60% more than Trump, and Democrats overall spent 80% more than Republicans on their campaigns.
The Republicans worked hard to make American democracy purchasable for those with the deepest pockets, so they should welcome this.
Quote from: Malicious Intent on December 13, 2020, 08:09:39 AM
Trumpists turning on the GOP:
https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411 (https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411)
Ironically, it looks like those who have fomented the revolt had the revolt turn on them. Has this ever happened in history before?
Quote from: Malicious Intent on December 13, 2020, 08:09:39 AM
Trumpists turning on the GOP:
https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411 (https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411)
These last years they were off? Fuck. :(
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2020, 05:07:36 AM
I just learned that Biden spent 60% more than Trump, and Democrats overall spent 80% more than Republicans on their campaigns.
The FEC filings say that Trump and the RNC spent $1.91 billion, and Biden DNC spent $1.68 billion, per NPR (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election)).
If you look just at the Presidential Campaign Committee numbers, it's Trump $208 million to Biden $272 million (31% more than Trump).
The Democrats overall spent $5.5. billion (excluding the $1.4 billion Steyer and Bloomberg spent on themselves) to the Republicans $3.8 billion, per CRP (https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/ (https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/). That's a 45% spending advantage. The Democrats have never had a fundraiser as effective as Trump.
I assume you meant that you "learned" your numbers from right-wing media.
You know, you can contest facts without being a total dick about it.
He actually can't.
Quote from: Solmyr on December 13, 2020, 04:54:43 AM
Over on The_Donald, they seem to think that the next stage is Trump using the military to establish martial law and thus having his legal cases heard in military courts.
And then the military courts still throw out the cases for lack of evidence.
Quote from: Valmy on December 13, 2020, 01:54:12 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on December 13, 2020, 04:54:43 AM
Over on The_Donald, they seem to think that the next stage is Trump using the military to establish martial law and thus having his legal cases heard in military courts.
And then the military courts still throw out the cases for lack of evidence.
Do you have link to that Solmyr? I'd like to keep an eye on that bs.
Still fantasizing about having a rebellion to quash? :P
Quote from: Habbaku on December 13, 2020, 01:06:27 PM
He actually can't.
In the sense that I wasn't being dickish, you are correct.
Valmy, your state is trying its best to outdo my Governor for terrible campaign ads.
Dan Crenshaw has a new ad for the GA Senate races targeted solely at teenage boys/GOP voters that pulls no stops when it comes to cringe: https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1338184981684908033
Quote from: Habbaku on December 13, 2020, 09:43:08 PM
Valmy, your state is trying its best to outdo my Governor for terrible campaign ads.
Dan Crenshaw has a new ad for the GA Senate races targeted solely at teenage boys/GOP voters that pulls no stops when it comes to cringe: https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1338184981684908033
The food wrappers on the dash was a nice touch. But what kind of self respecting (fascist) anti-fascist drives a pick up?
Quote from: Habbaku on December 13, 2020, 09:43:08 PM
Valmy, your state is trying its best to outdo my Governor for terrible campaign ads.
Dan Crenshaw has a new ad for the GA Senate races targeted solely at teenage boys/GOP voters that pulls no stops when it comes to cringe: https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1338184981684908033
I'm imagining Dan Crenshaw was like, "How could I get a free parachute jump using the insane campaign funds being raised in Georgia?"
Quote from: 11B4V on December 13, 2020, 02:10:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 13, 2020, 01:54:12 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on December 13, 2020, 04:54:43 AM
Over on The_Donald, they seem to think that the next stage is Trump using the military to establish martial law and thus having his legal cases heard in military courts.
And then the military courts still throw out the cases for lack of evidence.
Do you have link to that Solmyr? I'd like to keep an eye on that bs.
Go to thedonald.win (it's the replacement for the now banned The_Donald subreddit) and read the crazy to your heart's content.
Quote from: Malicious Intent on December 13, 2020, 08:09:39 AM
Trumpists turning on the GOP:
https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411 (https://twitter.com/BilancieriNews/status/1337991688942481411)
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/qN7NZR3Q5R2mY/200.gif)
One of the voting software companies have sent letters to Fox, OANN and NewsMax demanding they stop defaming them:
https://www.smartmatic.com/us/media/article/smartmatic-demands-justice-for-defamation/
:hmm:
I don't know anything about US libel laws and if they could pursue this but it seemed interesting.
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 14, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
One of the voting software companies have sent letters to Fox, OANN and NewsMax demanding they stop defaming them:
https://www.smartmatic.com/us/media/article/smartmatic-demands-justice-for-defamation/
:hmm:
I don't know anything about US libel laws and if they could pursue this but it seemed interesting.
My understanding of cease and desist letters is they mean bupkis.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 14, 2020, 09:43:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 14, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
One of the voting software companies have sent letters to Fox, OANN and NewsMax demanding they stop defaming them:
https://www.smartmatic.com/us/media/article/smartmatic-demands-justice-for-defamation/
:hmm:
I don't know anything about US libel laws and if they could pursue this but it seemed interesting.
My understanding of cease and desist letters is they mean bupkis.
In and of themselves, this is probably true. Their real significance is that they remove from their recipient any defense against a subsequent lawsuit that the recipient did not know they were committing a tort.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 14, 2020, 09:43:45 AM
My understanding of cease and desist letters is they mean bupkis.
Yes - they don't really exist in the UK despite American companies occasionally firing them out quite aggressively :lol:
I was thinking if they basically serve a similar purpose as "letter before claim" here which sort of puts the recipient on notice and is the first step to litigation?
C&D letters get a lot of use in IP infringement situations because - (a) recipient may truly not realize they are infringing, (b) recipient may decide to stop a use that isn't critical once a lawyer shows up and there is implicit threat of litigation, and (c) damages can be higher for willful infringement
Michigan Republicans try to enter state house to cast their electoral votes for the president:
https://twitter.com/rbeggin/status/1338563433520902147?s=19
(Thread)
:wacko:
It would be funnier if it weren't so stupid and potentially dangerous.
I go with dangerous and stupid, not just potentially dangerous. Too many people believe it, and too many of them are willing to dismiss concerns out of hand.
Representative Paul Mitchell from Michigan has left the Republican Party over the election idiocy.
Quote from: Habbaku on December 14, 2020, 04:29:59 PM
Representative Paul Mitchell from Michigan has left the Republican Party over the election idiocy.
Yeah but he only has a few weeks left in Congress. He did not run for re-election in November.
Yeah, found that out after posting. Symbolic at best, unfortunately. :(
Quote from: Habbaku on December 14, 2020, 04:38:22 PM
Yeah, found that out after posting. Symbolic at best, unfortunately. :(
It seems the best these Republicans have to offer: strong condemnation on the way out; silence when in office.
Trump plans seems to rely on GOP congress people to refuse to certify the electoral college vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/14/us/politics/congress-election-role.html
I wouldn't be surprised to see the GOP Representatives and Senators vote against certification in some States, knowing full well the House, controlled by Democrats, will not reject the certification.
I've also read somewhere that Pelosi is feeling pressure to not accept any GOP representative from a contested State who signed the amicus brief in favor of Trump.
I'm sure that would go very well with these Congressmen defending election integrity ;)
I don't think the voices arguing to reject GOP Congress critters are capable of exerting pressure.
If Pelosi is smart, she will simply add a rider to the acceptance bill that says that every congresscritter that accepts their seat acknowledges the legitimacy of the election that got them their seat. Put the shoe on their feet.
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 14, 2020, 05:46:58 PM
It seems the best these Republicans have to offer: strong condemnation on the way out; silence when in office.
Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
This is what the Trumpists are currently passing around to each other if you guys are looking for some strong "Bernie can still win!" energy: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/donald-trumps-stealthy-road-victory?fbclid=IwAR0raFr4xuA6pcVSyP91Bx-HVWSv3YxIyvDFwj8V2tNWHeZdqVvJmIK_rfk
Graham Allison is a grand oldtimer who wrote some foreign policy classics but his familiarity with Presidential election mechanics is creaky. The scenario he outlined is not possible at this point - the state election counts were certified and safe harbored and there are no competing electoral votes in play.
But,but, Stephen Miller said!!
Pelosi questioning their credentials is exactly what they want. Just like those asshole fake electors getting turned away by the cops. "We're patriots getting crushed by the Man."
Well Trump's boss Putin finally congratulated Biden on his victory. :)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpSLcjvXMAEk15t?format=png&name=900x900)
At this point, it's like beating a dead horse with another dead horse.
It's a brilliant customer identification/segmentation strategy for a world class grifter. The problem with grifting is figuring out who the grade A suckers are, and especially the ones with money to burn. By pushing this asinine legal strategy and bombarding the free airwaves with idiotic theories, you know whoever is buying into it is ripe for whatever grift you want to pull. Trump has just created a vast database of repeatable con victims he can use to fund himself for the next decade.
I heard a theory that one of the reason Nigerian prince emails are so poorly written is to filter out people who would be smart enough to be a waste of time.
Quote from: DGuller on December 15, 2020, 11:31:39 AM
I heard a theory that one of the reason Nigerian prince emails are so poorly written is to filter out people who would be smart enough to be a waste of time.
Yeah, I think that's true. I attended a seminar led by a Nigerian-American engineer a few years back and (while I can't remember why now) he brought those up and asserted the same. IIRC one of his in-laws worked for the police and had investigated some of those scams, which are like quasi-legitimate companies there.
QuoteEx-Cop Allegedly Held AC Repairman At Gunpoint, Convinced He Was Voter Fraud Kingpin
A former Houston police captain convinced of a vast conspiracy to steal the election allegedly ran a man off the road and held him at gunpoint, believing there were thousands of illegal ballots in the back of the man's box truck.
In fact, Mark Anthony Aguirre's alleged victim was an ordinary air conditioner repairman, prosecutors say. There was nothing fishy in the back of his truck, nor in the repairman's home in a nearby mobile home community in Houston, which Aguirre said he and others had surveilled for four days straight, police said.
But it gets stranger: The day after the ex-cop allegedly held the terrified repairman at gunpoint, convinced of a massive election conspiracy that did not exist, he received a wire transfer for $211,400, according to prosecutors. The money came from a conservative group that's pumped up election fraud conspiracy theories, and which is led by prominent right-wing activists in Texas.
All that — the alleged car ramming, brief hostage-taking, and wire transfer — happened in late October, as President Donald Trump and his allies across the country flailed to make the case that, if he lost his bid for reelection, it would be the result of massive and unprecedented fraud. Aguirre was arrested Tuesday, nearly two months later, and charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
Police knew about Aguirre's alleged actions within minutes. In fact, according to a police officer's affidavit, he had called them three days before the incident, urging them to conduct a traffic stop for his voter fraud investigation. When police refused, Aguirre said he would conduct his own "citizen's arrest," according to the affidavit.
Officers were on the scene in time to see that "citizen's arrest" for themselves, according to the affidavit: The first cop on the scene found Aguirre with his knee on the repairman's back. Police interviewed the repairman and Aguirre, and even searched the repairman's home, with his permission, to investigate Aguirre's claims of a voter fraud conspiracy.
Among other things, according to a police affidavit, Aguirre stated that the repairman had 750,000 fraudulent mail ballots, that Mark Zuckerberg had given $9.37 million for ballot harvesting, and that the repairman was "using Hispanic children to sign the ballots because the children's fingerprints would not appear in any databases."
After initially claiming to be working with others, Aguirre changed his story and refused to name them, police said in the affidavit. He refused to say who moved the repairman's box truck after he'd run into it — though the repairman told police he'd heard Aguirre order another unnamed suspect to search his box truck and then move it away from the scene.
But the ex-cop did have a few choice words for the police who arrived at the scene, according to the affidavit.
"The defendant told Affiant that Affiant can be a hero or part of the problem," one officer responding to the scene recounted. "The defendant told Affiant, 'I just hope you're a patriot.'"
Patriot or not, that officer eventually referred the incident to the public corruption division of the Harris County District Attorney's Office.
The office hasn't responded to TPM's question about the timing of the charges. But in a statement Tuesday, District Attorney Kim Ogg said Aguirre "crossed the line from dirty politics to commission of a violent crime and we are lucky no one was killed."
Aguirre was fired from the Houston Police Department in 2003, after commanding a street racing raid involving 278 arrests in a Kmart parking lot, the Houston Chronicle noted. Prosecutors dropped all charges resulting from the arrests — none of which specifically alleged street racing violations — and the department was hit with a wave of lawsuits over the incident.
The conservative group that allegedly funded Aguirre's private investigative work this year, the Liberty Center for God and Country, wired Aguirre $266,400 between September and October, according to grand jury records described by police.
The group's CEO, Steven Hotze, is a prominent right-wing activist who's lobbed lawsuits over everything from COVID-19 restrictions to voting rights. He unsuccessfully sued to limit early voting and toss 127,000 ballots cast through a drive-thru location. An affidavit from Aguirre was filed in the first effort. In the document, dated Sept. 27, the ex-cop stated that he was investigating "a wide-ranging and fraudulent ballots harvesting scheme in Harris County intended to rig the elections in the Houston/Harris County area."
Liberty Center's president, Jared Woodfill, told the Texas Tribune Tuesday that he was aware of Aguirre's arrest, but wanted to hear the ex-cop's side of the story.
Think of how many families and small businesses might have been saved in this pandemic with all the money wasted funding this crazy lunatic. It is a weird kind of patriotism.
Quote from: Valmy on December 16, 2020, 01:43:16 PM
Think of how many families and small businesses might have been saved in this pandemic with all the money wasted funding this crazy lunatic. It is a weird kind of patriotism.
Being a wackjob pays well at least.
Why would the police search the victim's house? Is it normal for the police to indulge crazed gunmen like that?
Quote from: Razgovory on December 16, 2020, 04:04:04 PM
Why would the police search the victim's house? Is it normal for the police to indulge crazed gunmen like that?
Victim gave permission.
It has helped sometimes. The guy who went into Comet Pizza in DC with assault rifles looking for paedophiles was extremely remorseful when he learned how mistaken he was.
Quote from: Barrister on December 16, 2020, 04:09:33 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 16, 2020, 04:04:04 PM
Why would the police search the victim's house? Is it normal for the police to indulge crazed gunmen like that?
Victim gave permission.
I would think, especially under the circumstances presented, that it is still pretty bad that the cops would even ask...
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 16, 2020, 04:52:07 PM
I would think, especially under the circumstances presented, that it is still pretty bad that the cops would even ask...
Is it really that surprising?
I don't know that the cops asked to search the house, or whether "DL" (whose name hasn't been released) didn't suggest it himself, to get the crazed lunatics off his back. The search was strange either way.
what I don't understand is why Aguirre was not arrested on the spot. The police caught him red-handed engaged in an assault and battery. He wasn't arrested until more than two months later.
Quote from: grumbler on December 16, 2020, 06:34:56 PM
I don't know that the cops asked to search the house, or whether "DL" (whose name hasn't been released) didn't suggest it himself, to get the crazed lunatics off his back. The search was strange either way.
what I don't understand is why Aguirre was not arrested on the spot. The police caught him red-handed engaged in an assault and battery. He wasn't arrested until more than two months later.
I wondered myself. Is causing a traffic crash and assaulting someone at gunpoint not something the cops enforce if the guilty party is a 'patriot'?
I thought it might be just the story, it came from Talking Points Memo. However, CNN has the same story so all the basic facts appear to be true. The Harris county district attorney also has a brief story on this. So does the city of Houston. Those last two sources have little more.
https://app.dao.hctx.net/former-houston-police-captain-charged-holding-repairman-gunpoint-bogus-voter-fraud-conspiracy
QuoteAguirre ran his SUV into the back of the truck to get the technician to stop and get out, according to the document. When the technician got out of the truck, Aguirre, pointed a handgun at the technician, forced him to the ground and put his knee on the man's back – an image captured on the body-worn camera of a police officer.
Aguirre directed police to a parking lot nearby where another suspect, who has not been identified, took the truck. There were no ballots in the truck. It was filled with air conditioning parts and tools.
Aguirre never told police that he had been paid a total of $266,400 by the Houston-based Liberty Center for God and Country, with $211,400 of that amount being deposited into his account the day after the incident
https://cityofhouston.news/suspect-arrested-charged-in-aggravated-assault-investigation/
QuoteAbout 5:30 a.m. on October 19, an HPD patrol officer responding to an unrelated call observed a crash in the 1300 block of Almeda Genoa. The officer then saw a man, later identified as Aguirre, detaining another man at gunpoint lying face down on the ground in the median. The officer called for a backup unit. As the officer approached Aguirre, he observed the box truck involved in the crash being driven away from the scene.
Officers approached Aguirre, who identified himself as a retired HPD captain, and demanded officers take the male on the ground into custody. Aguirre stated he was part of a security group conducting surveillance on a group of individuals reportedly involved in election fraud. Aguirre stated he had followed the suspect from the suspect's residence as he transported illegal ballots in a box truck. Aguirre stated he accidentally struck the box truck with his vehicle.
It seems really odd that some asshole was directing police and trying to give the police orders. From the way this is written is sounds like the police just sort of sauntered over to where a unknown gunman was holding some one down while another person stole a truck.
I won't beat around the bush anymore: This looks corrupt. I haven't seen the tape, so maybe police immediately disarmed and arrested the man who was committing a felony, but that's not the way any of this reads.
Immediately can mean so many different things. Two months later is pretty much immediately. Have you ever worked for HPD?
You can't help but think that, had Aguire been black, he'd be dead with 34 bullets in him (out of 276 fired).
Quote from: grumbler on December 17, 2020, 08:43:46 AM
You can't help but think that, had Aguire been black, he'd be dead with 34 bullets in him (out of 276 fired).
Maybe not. But this wackjob might not have been arrested quite so quickly.
GOP lawmakers call for Trump to keep power by suspending civil liberties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/16/north-carolina-republican-trump-insurrection/?fbclid=IwAR2HSOzzgJg6XQaiKFjiYyhKfvxEd6NG9AZk0fndzEk1IYGkViaffMjLV7w
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 17, 2020, 10:18:41 AM
GOP lawmakers call for Trump to keep power by suspending civil liberties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/16/north-carolina-republican-trump-insurrection/?fbclid=IwAR2HSOzzgJg6XQaiKFjiYyhKfvxEd6NG9AZk0fndzEk1IYGkViaffMjLV7w
Suspending civil liberties seemed a lot more "out there" prior to covid-19.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 17, 2020, 11:59:08 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on December 17, 2020, 10:18:41 AM
GOP lawmakers call for Trump to keep power by suspending civil liberties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/16/north-carolina-republican-trump-insurrection/?fbclid=IwAR2HSOzzgJg6XQaiKFjiYyhKfvxEd6NG9AZk0fndzEk1IYGkViaffMjLV7w
Suspending civil liberties seemed a lot more "out there" prior to covid-19.
It's scary that wingnuts actually believe that Covid-19 reduces a person's ability to tell how "out there" suspending civil liberties seems.
I think that, between the elections and the epidemic, a lot of people's minds have simply broken and left them spouting nonsense.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 17, 2020, 11:59:08 AM
Suspending civil liberties seemed a lot more "out there" prior to covid-19.
Yeah - it's extraordinary to see the coercive power of the state in full display. I remember being in hospital with another issue in January and seeing the story in China and thinking even if it got here it wouldn't be possible to lockdown Western countries like that because none of us have the state to do it - not enough police to enforce it without the military and there'd likely be limited voluntary compliance.
Just two months later 80% of the world was in some form of lockdown. It's extraordinary.
What I find extraordinary, and I've always been fascinated by this, is the human ability to take any particular piece of data, and massage it so they can interpret it to fit into their pre-conceived conclusions.
It's scary how easily scared Grumbler is.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 17, 2020, 11:59:08 AM
Suspending civil liberties seemed a lot more "out there" prior to covid-19.
No
It's scary how unconcerned eddie teach is about insane armed people taking the law into their own hands, especially insane armed former Houston police captains. I guess he figures that, logically, those guys won't go after one of their own, but I think he's nuts to count on the nuts acting logically.
Case in point.
I'm scared that Grumbler is scared that Eddie isn't scared that Grumbler is scared of Alfred Russel but is scared of Grumbler being scared in general.
I'm scared of recursion.
Quote from: grumbler on December 17, 2020, 12:27:03 PM
I think that, between the elections and the epidemic, a lot of people's minds have simply broken and left them spouting nonsense.
covid-19 attacks the brain. It is known.
The US has barely locked down at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIhN1azseWA
Another Republican pushing back against conspiracy theories.
I find it kind of telling that my first instinct was to see whether he was in a competitive district or not. To my happy surprise, he isn't--he decisively won re-election this time around. So he might be genuine!
What is also telling is how remarkable it is for a Republican elected official to say what he's saying. Not too long ago it would've been a given that any politicians in their right mind would be saying what he's saying.
Quote from: Habbaku on December 17, 2020, 05:13:01 PM
I'm scared of recursion.
I'm not scared of anything on this planet. I only fear God and His terrible judgment.
I've done my share of shitposting in my time, and in the event it turns out there is a God, I'm fucked.
Quote from: alfred russel on December 21, 2020, 12:22:29 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 17, 2020, 05:13:01 PM
I'm scared of recursion.
I'm not scared of anything on this planet. I only fear God and His terrible judgment.
(snip)
If there is a god with terrible judgement, you and he will have a lot in common. :D
(Sorry, but you made that impossible to resist).
Perhaps this board is proof of God's terrible judgement. ;)
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 14, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
One of the voting software companies have sent letters to Fox, OANN and NewsMax demanding they stop defaming them:
https://www.smartmatic.com/us/media/article/smartmatic-demands-justice-for-defamation/
:hmm:
I don't know anything about US libel laws and if they could pursue this but it seemed interesting.
So Newsmax has a host reading this on all news shows :lol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpyhsS2XMAMgJS6?format=png&name=small)
"All of our news reporting is fake news"
To be fair that suddenly made them more accurate and honest than the cable news TV channels.
:wub: That's wonderful.
Quote from: Valmy on December 21, 2020, 03:58:38 PM
"All of our news reporting is fake news"
To be fair that suddenly made them more accurate and honest than the cable news TV channels.
"We regret to announce that we've been chatting bollocks." :lol:
Sadly it's far closer to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
No doubt they will keep bringing on "independent guests" who will give "opinions" on these matters.
Sidney Powell should be very happy that Trump did not reform the libel laws like he said he wanted to. Even as they are now should could be exposed.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 21, 2020, 06:54:33 PM
Sidney Powell should be very happy that Trump did not reform the libel laws like he said he wanted to. Even as they are now should could be exposed.
How could she not be exposed right now? She is clearly committing slander and probably libel, and she knows that all of these zombie Chavez things are made up, because she made them up. She shouldn't have shoved that kraken up her ass before releasing it.
Statements made in connection with judicial proceedings have absolute privilege from defamation claims.
NewsMax's statement is already being clarified by its followers as minor pro forma appeasement of THE LEFT to avoid getting violenced by its BLM foot soldiers.
https://thehill.com/homenews/531485-pennsylvania-lieutenant-governor-says-texas-counterpart-owes-him-bounty-money-after
QuotePennsylvania lt. gov. says Texas counterpart owes him bounty money after state uncovers voter fraud cases
Pennsylvania's lieutenant governor is claiming that Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) owes his state money after law enforcement officials in Pennsylvania uncovered isolated instances of voter fraud in recent weeks.
"Recap: Texas sued PA claiming mass voter fraud to SCOTUS," Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) tweeted on Wednesday. "Sure, TX got demolished, but my dude LG Dan Patrick put out a handsome reward for voter fraud. We delivered. He owes us $3M, Pennsylvania. That's *a lot* of Shmuffins + Sizlis, folks."
A week after the Nov. 3 election, Patrick offered up to $1 million to anyone who could provide proof of voter fraud anywhere around the country.
"I support President Trump's efforts to identify voter fraud in the presidential election and his commitment to making sure that every legal vote is counted and every illegal vote is disqualified," Patrick said in a statement at the time. "President Trump's pursuit of voter fraud is not only essential to determine the outcome of this election, it is essential to maintain our democracy and restore faith in future elections."
QuoteRecap: Texas sued PA claiming mass voter fraud to SCOTUS.
Sure, TX got demolished, but my dude LG Dan Patrick put out a handsome reward for voter fraud.
We delivered.
He owes us $3M, Pennsylvania.
That's *a lot* of Shmuffins + Sizlis, folks.https://t.co/H6Ts3UNTEe
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) December 23, 2020
State officials in Pennsylvania have in recent weeks uncovered at least three instances of voter fraud, two of which involved cases of citizens casting multiple ballots for President Trump.
In a statement to the Houston Chronicle, a spokesperson for Patrick responded to Fetterman's tweets, saying: "It is not clear why Lt. Gov. Fetterman continues on this topic since Democrats don't believe in voter fraud, unless it's Russia."
Trump and his allies have alleged that widespread voter fraud led to a "rigged" election against him. Judges have dismissed several lawsuits in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, brought forth by the Trump campaign contesting the election's result.
Pennsylvania was also on a list of battleground states Texas sued earlier this month for what it alleged was a failure to abide by the Constitution as it relates to holding free and fair elections. The Supreme Court rejected that case on Dec. 11.
"Also, if I'm forced to sue my colleague to claim my handsome reward, my case is exponentially stronger than that pile of hot garbage lawsuit TX tried with SCOTUS," Fetterman said.
:lol:
:lol: Sweet
I like how Patrick takes zero responsibility for his own personal actions but tries to hold Fetterman accountable for the actions of all Democrats. What a fucking worthless asshole.
Is the reward legally enforceable? I think I read somewhere that purely verbal commitments are not legally binding above some dollar amount.
Quote from: Valmy on December 24, 2020, 02:30:21 PM
I like how Patrick takes zero responsibility for his own personal actions but tries to hold Fetterman accountable for the actions of all Democrats. What a fucking worthless asshole.
Yeah, I'm thinking that is a requirement to be in today's GOP leadership.
It seems that one of the affiants claiming to been an intelligence specialist is just some loopy blogger.
QuoteAs she asked the U.S. Supreme Court this month to overturn President Trump's election loss, the attorney Sidney Powell cited testimony from a secret witness presented as a former intelligence contractor with insights on a foreign conspiracy to subvert democracy.
Powell told courts that the witness is an expert who could show that overseas corporations helped shift votes to President-elect Joe Biden. The witness's identity must be concealed from the public, Powell has said, to protect her "reputation, professional career and personal safety."
The Washington Post identified the witness by determining that portions of her affidavit match, sometimes verbatim, a blog post that the pro-Trump podcaster Terpsichore Maras-Lindeman published in November 2019. In an interview, Maras-Lindeman confirmed that she wrote the affidavit and said she viewed it as her contribution to a fight against the theft of the election.
This is everybody's duty," she said. "It's just not fair."
In a recent civil fraud case, attorneys for the state of North Dakota said that Maras-Lindeman falsely claimed to be a medical doctor and to have both a PhD and an MBA. They said she used multiple aliases and social security numbers and created exaggerated online résumés as part of what they called "a persistent effort . . . to deceive others."
Powell's reliance on Maras-Lindeman's testimony may raise further questions about her judgment and the strength of her arguments at a time when she is becoming an increasingly influential adviser to the president. Trump's legal team distanced itself from Powell last month after she falsely claimed Republican state officials took bribes to rig the election. But she has visited the White House three times in the past week, once to participate in an Oval Office meeting. Trump has weighed naming Powell a special counsel to investigate the election, according to previous reports.
Maras-Lindeman, 42, served in the Navy for less than a year more than two decades ago and has said she worked later as a government contractor and part-time interpreter. She has identified herself as a "trained cryptolinguist."
North Dakota's assertions about her credentials came in a civil case brought by the state's attorney general in 2018 over a purported charitable event she tried to organize in Minot, N.D., where she and her family resided. Attorneys for the state said she used money she collected — ostensibly to fund homeless shelters and wreaths for veterans' graves — on purchases for herself at McDonald's, QVC and elsewhere.
A judge ultimately found that Maras-Lindeman violated consumer protection laws by, among other things, misspending money she raised and soliciting donations while misrepresenting her experience and education. He ordered her to pay more than $25,000.
Maras-Lindeman has appealed to the state Supreme Court. In court filings and in her interview with The Post, she denied mishandling the funds or misleading donors. She blamed identity theft and bureaucratic failings for a proliferation of variations on her name and social security numbers associated with her.
Maras-Lindeman also claimed that she was targeted by the state for political reasons, noting that around that time she was exploring running for mayor of Minot — under the slogan "Make Minot Great Again." She said that in 2018 she assisted the campaign of David C. Thompson, the Democratic challenger to longtime Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem (R). Thompson is now Maras-Lindeman's defense attorney.
Thompson said in an interview that the case was a "vindictive exercise" and was excessive given the relatively small amounts of money in question. "They took a missile to kill a fly," he said.
In an interview, Stenehjem — who signed a brief this month asking the Supreme Court to take up a case that sought to overturn the election — dismissed the claim that his investigation was politically motivated and said that anyone working with Maras-Lindeman should "back away" from her.
In a text message, Powell did not directly address questions about Maras-Lindeman's fraud case and credentials. "I don't have the same information you do," she wrote to The Post.
Powell's lawsuits — litigation she has referred to as "the kraken," after a Scandinavian mythological sea monster — rely in key respects on a handful of anonymous expert witnesses. Among them is a purported military intelligence expert identified in court filings as "Spyder." The Post reported this month that the witness is an I.T. consultant named Joshua Merritt who has never worked in military intelligence. Rather, Merritt spent the bulk of his decade in the Army as a wheeled-vehicle mechanic.
Like Merritt, Maras-Lindeman told The Post she had never spoken directly to Powell or anyone working on her legal team. She said she distributed the affidavit widely to like-minded people and was unaware it had come to Powell's attention until it appeared as an exhibit in one of her cases.
Maras-Lindeman's 37-page affidavit outlines a purported conspiracy by the Canadian company Dominion Voting Systems, which sells voting machines used in some states, and Scytl, a Spain-based firm that provides election software. She claims that votes cast on Dominion machines in key states were hacked as they passed through Scytl tallying systems and rigged in favor of Biden.
"The vote is not safe using these machines not only because of the method used for ballot 'cleansing' to maintain anonymity but the EXPOSURE to foreign interference and possible domestic bad actors," she writes in the affidavit.
Like Trump and many of his supporters, Maras-Lindeman points to election night spikes in Biden's vote totals — explained by officials as merely the result of densely populated areas reporting their counts — as evidence of a "digital fix" involving abrupt dumps of bogus votes.
In a statement last month, Dominion described allegations leveled against it by Powell and other Trump supporters as "baseless, senseless, physically impossible, and unsupported by any evidence whatsoever." Scytl said in a statement that it "does NOT tabulate, tally or count votes in US public elections," had no relationship with Dominion, and that its U.S. operations are run by a Tampa-based subsidiary.
Last week, Dominion said it had written to Powell to demand that she retract what the company said were defamatory accusations.
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Federal judges have rejected all four of the complaints Powell has filed, two of which — in Wisconsin and Arizona — included Maras-Lindeman's affidavit.
In Wisconsin, a federal judge ruled that Powell's request that the results of the election be overturned is "outside the limits" of the court's power. Attorneys for Gov. Tony Evers (D), in seeking the dismissal, said the complaint was "rampant with wild speculation and conspiratorial conclusions, and simply without any basis in law or fact."
A federal judge in Arizona wrote that allegations "that find favor in the public sphere of gossip and innuendo cannot be a substitute for earnest pleadings and procedure in federal court" and "most certainly cannot be the basis for upending Arizona's 2020 General Election."
Powell has appealed the cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, where she is seeking to have them consolidated.
Maras-Lindeman, who goes by Tore (pronounced "Tory"), spent recent weeks in Washington with a group of fellow Trump supporters working to bolster Powell's legal campaign, according to social media posts and statements on her podcast, "Tore Says." The group included Millie Weaver, a former correspondent for the far-right website Infowars, who released a documentary over the summer — "Shadowgate" — that helped propel Maras-Lindeman to prominence among conspiracy theorists on the right.
Maras-Lindeman told her listeners on Dec. 7 that she was speaking from "the belly of the beast" and that a group of Trump loyalists was working to take action against those who had stolen the president's victory.
"There are really good people — patriots — gathered, working hard to ensure that they not only get to the bottom of what happened during this election . . . but they're also seeking to prosecute," she said.
Maras-Lindeman spent time at Trump's hotel in downtown Washington and interviewed Patrick Byrne, the millionaire Overstock.com founder and Trump backer who has said he is funding a team of "cybersleuths" to scrutinize the election. Byrne and Maras-Lindeman told The Post he is not funding her.
In past episodes, Maras-Lindeman has discussed conspiracy theories, including one that baselessly accused high-ranking Democrats of human trafficking centered at a D.C. pizzeria. In an episode last year, she said, "What we realize is that this Pizzagate stuff, this satanic constant abuse of children is an actual real thing."
Maras-Lindeman, who is of Greek heritage, joined the Navy in December 1996 and spent eight months training in Illinois and Florida as an airman recruit before departing the service in August 1997, according to a Navy record.
In their civil case, North Dakota state attorneys said that Maras-Lindeman created a profile on Together We Served, an online veteran community, that incorrectly depicted an extensive military career.
The profile, which is no longer online, said that Maras-Lindeman reached the rank of lieutenant, served in the combat zones of Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, and in the Office of Naval Intelligence, and was awarded multiple medals including a Purple Heart.
In the interview, Maras-Lindeman denied creating the profile and said whoever did had misstated the details of her career. She previously posted to Twitter a purported copy of her Navy separation paperwork, which said that she specialized in communications and intelligence.
Neither the record provided to The Post nor the paperwork Maras-Lindeman posted online stated a reason for her departure, but the papers she posted said that the character of her discharge was "general (under honorable conditions)."
In response to questions about the nature of the discharge, a Navy spokesman referred to the Navy Military Personnel Manual. The manual said it means, "The quality of the member's service has been honest and faithful; however, significant negative aspects of the member's conduct or performance of duty outweighed positive aspects of the member's service record."
In her affidavit, Maras-Lindeman identifies herself as a former "private contractor with experience gathering and analyzing foreign intelligence" and says that from 1999 to 2014 she had responsibility for delegating tasks to other contractors working for the United States and allied nations. She stood by that account in her interview with The Post.
In a court filing in North Dakota last year, she wrote that she had worked as a contractor since 1996 and had been "a vendor with certain programs associated with USSOCOM," the U.S. Special Operations Command. A spokesman for the command said in an email that its contracting office could find no record of any contract with her.
She claimed in Weaver's documentary that, as an intelligence contractor, she carried out a notorious 2008 intrusion into the State Department's passport records on several presidential candidates. In a separate podcast interview, she said that she retrieved the records on direct orders from John O. Brennan, who then led a private security firm implicated in the incident and was later CIA director. "I went and got them," she said. "He told me to go get them."
A spokesman for Brennan said that Brennan had never heard of Maras-Lindeman.
Maras-Lindeman told The Post that, by its nature, her covert work could not be independently verified. "People like me don't exist," she said. "You just have to trust."
According to a LinkedIn profile that has since been deleted, between 1997 and 2014 Maras-Lindeman obtained eight academic degrees in the United States and the United Kingdom, along with additional professional qualifications. The attorneys in the fraud case said in court filings that they could find records of her earning only one degree, a bachelor's in biology from the University of Kentucky in 2011.
Maras-Lindeman told The Post someone else created the profile — despite claims to the contrary by state attorneys in the fraud case — and she declined to comment on its particulars.
After obtaining the degree, Maras-Lindeman and her family moved to Beaverton, Ore.
She took a voluntary job teaching Greek at Agia Sophia Academy, a private Greek Orthodox school in Beaverton. Her archived biography on the school's website used the title "Dr." and said she had a PhD. Attorneys for North Dakota later said in a court filing in the fraud case that Maras-Lindeman "is not a doctor and does not possess a PhD from any institution."
The school's principal, Christina Blankenstein, said in an email that the school could not vouch for Maras-Lindeman's professional record because her position was unpaid. Maras-Lindeman worked at the school for between a year and two years, Blankenstein said.
In the interview, Maras-Lindeman said the school must have misunderstood paperwork she gave them saying that she was a PhD candidate.
After she moved to North Dakota, Maras-Lindeman asserted in series of small claims court cases that she was a pediatric oncologist, attorneys for North Dakota said in a court filing. As recently as November 2017, a website for a purported cancer research organization named "ML Laboratories" referred to her as "Dr. Tore Maras-Lindeman" and said she was its founder.
Maras-Lindeman also used an email address and Twitter handle identifying herself as "Dr. Lindeman." She told The Post she reserved the accounts so they would be ready for her when she earned a doctoral degree.
It seems like there should be rule against trying to deceive the court with fake witnesses or just lifting blog posts written by random lunatics and con artists and putting them in an affidavit without bothering to confirm the basic facts.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 24, 2020, 02:43:32 PM
Is the reward legally enforceable? I think I read somewhere that purely verbal commitments are not legally binding above some dollar amount.
There is no dollar amount limit on oral contracts, there are some other limitations.
In any event, Fetterman's point here is to troll not collect.
Sidney Powell Thinks Georgia Senate Runoff May Be 'Rigged' to Favor GOP
https://www.newsweek.com/sidney-powell-thinks-georgia-senate-runoff-may-rigged-favor-gop-1557898
QuoteFormer Trump campaign attorney Sidney Powell on Tuesday claimed that Georgia election officials may have "rigged" the state's January 5 special runoff elections so that the state's Republican Senate incumbents will win.
During Powell's interview on The Rush Limbaugh Show, an interviewer asked her whether she thought Republicans should vote in the state's special election despite her belief that the state's presidential elections were rigged to provide an outcome for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden.
"Well, my concern is that it's not going to matter how the people vote in the Georgia race," Powell said. "It obviously didn't matter how they voted nationwide, did it?"
When the interviewer said that he wanted Republicans to vote in the upcoming special election "in incredible numbers" adding, "I want all eyes on this because we cannot hand the Senate to these people, Sydney."
Powell then responded.
"Well yeah, I mean the situation we're in now, I would suggest that everybody in Georgia turnout on Election Day, and do it again: Vote for the Republican candidates in mass numbers and see what happens," Powell said, adding, "And it might be that they've even rigged the system so that the two Republicans win so they can say, 'Oh see? There's no problem.'"
Republicans and Democrats alike are closely watching the special Senate race because it will determine party control of the U.S. Senate. The two races are between Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Ossoff against Republican incumbent Senator David Purdue and a race between Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock and Republican incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler.
Trump, his re-election campaign surrogates and his supporters have all criticized Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and the state's Republican Governor Brian Kemp for declaring that Biden fairly won the state, thus contradicting Trump and his supporters' claims of widespread voter fraud.
While serving as an attorney for Trump's re-election campaign, Powell claimed in a November 19 press conference, that "massive influence of communist money through Venezuela, Cuba and likely China" had compelled Republican and Democratic lawmakers to rig the election.
The rigging, according to Powell, occurred by various Democratic and Republican candidates paying foreign governments to alter voting machines to switch Trump votes into Biden votes and to switch enough other votes to help other individual candidates to win their election races.
"We have no idea how many Republican or Democratic candidates in any state across the country, paid to have the system rigged to work for them," Powell said. Powell didn't present any evidence to back up her claims.
On November 21, Powell appeared on the right-wing conservative network Newsmax, claiming she had evidence that 7 million votes were fraudulently cast for Biden's benefit. She also accused Kemp and Raffensperger of accepting bribes to participate in the alleged vote-switching scheme.
By November 22, Trump's re-election campaign said that Powell no longer had a formal role as a campaign attorney.
Powell's claim of Kemp and Raffensperger's corruption have potentially undermined Republicans' chances in Georgia's runoffs as some Republicans wish to "punish" the local Republican party who helped validate Biden's victory. Others simply distrust the electoral process since Trump and his supporters claim it's been broken by massive fraud.
So it's rigged if a Republican wins and it's rigged if a Democrat wins. :blink:
Quote from: Razgovory on December 31, 2020, 02:14:24 PM
Sidney Powell Thinks Georgia Senate Runoff May Be 'Rigged' to Favor GOP
https://www.newsweek.com/sidney-powell-thinks-georgia-senate-runoff-may-rigged-favor-gop-1557898
QuoteFormer Trump campaign attorney Sidney Powell on Tuesday claimed that Georgia election officials may have "rigged" the state's January 5 special runoff elections so that the state's Republican Senate incumbents will win.
During Powell's interview on The Rush Limbaugh Show, an interviewer asked her whether she thought Republicans should vote in the state's special election despite her belief that the state's presidential elections were rigged to provide an outcome for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden.
"Well, my concern is that it's not going to matter how the people vote in the Georgia race," Powell said. "It obviously didn't matter how they voted nationwide, did it?"
When the interviewer said that he wanted Republicans to vote in the upcoming special election "in incredible numbers" adding, "I want all eyes on this because we cannot hand the Senate to these people, Sydney."
Powell then responded.
"Well yeah, I mean the situation we're in now, I would suggest that everybody in Georgia turnout on Election Day, and do it again: Vote for the Republican candidates in mass numbers and see what happens," Powell said, adding, "And it might be that they've even rigged the system so that the two Republicans win so they can say, 'Oh see? There's no problem.'"
Republicans and Democrats alike are closely watching the special Senate race because it will determine party control of the U.S. Senate. The two races are between Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Ossoff against Republican incumbent Senator David Purdue and a race between Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock and Republican incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler.
Trump, his re-election campaign surrogates and his supporters have all criticized Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and the state's Republican Governor Brian Kemp for declaring that Biden fairly won the state, thus contradicting Trump and his supporters' claims of widespread voter fraud.
While serving as an attorney for Trump's re-election campaign, Powell claimed in a November 19 press conference, that "massive influence of communist money through Venezuela, Cuba and likely China" had compelled Republican and Democratic lawmakers to rig the election.
The rigging, according to Powell, occurred by various Democratic and Republican candidates paying foreign governments to alter voting machines to switch Trump votes into Biden votes and to switch enough other votes to help other individual candidates to win their election races.
"We have no idea how many Republican or Democratic candidates in any state across the country, paid to have the system rigged to work for them," Powell said. Powell didn't present any evidence to back up her claims.
On November 21, Powell appeared on the right-wing conservative network Newsmax, claiming she had evidence that 7 million votes were fraudulently cast for Biden's benefit. She also accused Kemp and Raffensperger of accepting bribes to participate in the alleged vote-switching scheme.
By November 22, Trump's re-election campaign said that Powell no longer had a formal role as a campaign attorney.
Powell's claim of Kemp and Raffensperger's corruption have potentially undermined Republicans' chances in Georgia's runoffs as some Republicans wish to "punish" the local Republican party who helped validate Biden's victory. Others simply distrust the electoral process since Trump and his supporters claim it's been broken by massive fraud.
So it's rigged if a Republican wins and it's rigged if a Democrat wins. :blink:
Well yes. If Trump had won it would have been despite it beign fixed. When he lost it was only because it was.
Its about a plucky band of freedom fighters who alone, amongst the sheep and the Satanists have the moral courage to TELL IT LIKE IT IS and the guts to face the demons and tell them to GTFO of my country. Queue patriotic montage.
She's saying something different. She's saying they might rig a Republican win in Georgia so that people will believe the presidential race was not rigged.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 02:56:14 PM
She's saying something different. She's saying they might rig a Republican win in Georgia so that people will believe the presidential race was not rigged.
Yes, but Democrats can only win if it's rigged. So no matter who wins it is rigged.
If the Democrats win, it's proof that the Democrats rigged the election. If the Republicans win, that's also proof that the Democrats rigged the election. The logic is indisputable, and fact that Sidney Powell claims that she has the evidence is proof that she does.
I'm still waiting for her to demonstrate that, if the results split, that's proof that the Democrats rigged the election.
Quote from: grumbler on December 31, 2020, 04:27:52 PM
If the Democrats win, it's proof that the Democrats rigged the election. If the Republicans win, that's also proof that the Democrats rigged the election. The logic is indisputable, and fact that Sidney Powell claims that she has the evidence is proof that she does.
I'm still waiting for her to demonstrate that, if the results split, that's proof that the Democrats rigged the election.
Well that makes it even more likely that it was rigged. They wanted to make it look good, but they wanted to get at least one seat.
This woman was a federal prosecutor. Was she always this crazy?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 02:56:14 PM
She's saying something different. She's saying they might rig a Republican win in Georgia so that people will believe the presidential race was not rigged.
"They" being ?
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 31, 2020, 05:50:35 PM
Quote from: grumbler on December 31, 2020, 04:27:52 PM
If the Democrats win, it's proof that the Democrats rigged the election. If the Republicans win, that's also proof that the Democrats rigged the election. The logic is indisputable, and fact that Sidney Powell claims that she has the evidence is proof that she does.
I'm still waiting for her to demonstrate that, if the results split, that's proof that the Democrats rigged the election.
Well that makes it even more likely that it was rigged. They wanted to make it look good, but they wanted to get at least one seat.
You are not Sidney Powell. :blurgh:
I only believe the lies that she issues so shamelessly. Sane people merely pretending to be insane shameless liars (e.g. you, Mitch McConnell, Tom Brady) are not credible.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 07:21:24 PM
"They" being ?
The Republican governor and Secretary of State, who were paid off by the Chinese, Venezuelans, and Cubans. D'uh. :mellow:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqvmfNTXcAISJY2?format=jpg&name=medium)
Are these senators willing to guarantee that this extra-constitutional commission wouldl change people's minds about the rigged election?
Trump accused Ted Cruz of unprecedented voter fraud in 2016. Perhaps we should look into that.
Disappointed to see John Kennedy on the list of disgraced Senators.
Republicans keeping digging? My word! :o
Regardless of how January 6 goes, I wonder if that now means that if GOP controls both House and Senate in 2025, then we'll have a Republican President?
Quote from: DGuller on January 02, 2021, 04:47:48 PM
Regardless of how January 6 goes, I wonder if that now means that if GOP controls both House and Senate in 2025, then we'll have a Republican President?
It's not a good situation, is it? I have no idea what happens if both houses of congress refuse to certify an election. I don't know what happens when only one chamber approves it.
Before getting too worked up, please note there are only 11 names on the list.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 07:01:57 PM
Before getting too worked up, please note there are only 11 names on the list.
Have you figured out at which point you'd get worried?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 07:01:57 PM
Before getting too worked up, please note there are only 11 names on the list.
So only 20% of Republican Senators want to overthrow democratic election results?
I get your point that they aren't a majority who can actually do anything, but it still feels like a fairly sizeable chunk and I think loser's consent is a really important part of democratic legitimacy.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 02, 2021, 08:53:50 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 07:01:57 PM
Before getting too worked up, please note there are only 11 names on the list.
Have you figured out at which point you'd get worried?
Worry is pointless. At no point can I alter the outcome.
I am impressed Ted Cruz has time to do that between funneling valuable PPP small business money to his billionaire buddies.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 09:24:11 PM
Worry is pointless. At no point can I alter the outcome.
Ok, Mono.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 02, 2021, 01:38:00 PM
Are these senators willing to guarantee that this extra-constitutional commission wouldl change people's minds about the rigged election?
That is the thing. I mean I am fine with doing whatever investigation anybody wants to do about election. But people would have to agree to accept the results. Is Ted Cruz and all these self-righteous frauds really going to just say "ok I guess it was alright, please proceed" when this audit finds everything is more or less on the up and up?
I kind of want to call their bluff. But it is an impossible ask. We could not possibly do a full audit of millions of votes in such a short time. Now maybe we do an investigation later like we did with the Russian thing. But we did tons of them about Benghazi but the results of the investigations never seemed to move the needle much.
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2021, 12:04:25 AM
That is the thing. I mean I am fine with doing whatever investigation anybody wants to do about election. But people would have to agree to accept the results. Is Ted Cruz and all these self-righteous frauds really going to just say "ok I guess it was alright, please proceed" when this audit finds everything is more or less on the up and up?
No. In November Ted Cruz was saying it's reasonable to wait for all the votes to be counted and all the legal challenges to finish before declaring a winner and now appears to have shifted the goalposts.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 03, 2021, 12:07:17 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2021, 12:04:25 AM
That is the thing. I mean I am fine with doing whatever investigation anybody wants to do about election. But people would have to agree to accept the results. Is Ted Cruz and all these self-righteous frauds really going to just say "ok I guess it was alright, please proceed" when this audit finds everything is more or less on the up and up?
No. In November Ted Cruz was saying it's reasonable to wait for all the votes to be counted and all the legal challenges to finish before declaring a winner and now appears to have shifted the goalposts.
Well he is a known crook now so I wouldn't think he has any actual principles. Pity I thought he was this religious fanatic crazy, but even a religious fanatic crazy will sometimes be right. A corrupt crook and political opportunist will always be on the wrong side.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 02, 2021, 11:42:26 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 09:24:11 PM
Worry is pointless. At no point can I alter the outcome.
Ok, Mono.
I can see how you'd read it that way, but it's not what I meant. I'm not saying to do nothing. I'm saying cross the bridge when you get to it. Fretting proactively won't do any good, especially for us little people with limited agency.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 03, 2021, 03:35:08 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 02, 2021, 11:42:26 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 02, 2021, 09:24:11 PM
Worry is pointless. At no point can I alter the outcome.
Ok, Mono.
I can see how you'd read it that way, but it's not what I meant. I'm not saying to do nothing. I'm saying cross the bridge when you get to it. Fretting proactively won't do any good, especially for us little people with limited agency.
Dispensing with metaphors, what is it that is finally the inciting event to axt/worry about? Once upon a time we would have cared about elected officials so brazenly trying to subvert democracy/convincing swathes of the public to think our elections are rigged.
Back in 2000, there were several members of the House who tried to block GWB's inauguration. It came to nothing, just as this will.
As for what point, I'd say it's better for one's peace of mind to only concern himself with events that have happened and not events that may happen.
Quote from: garbon on January 03, 2021, 03:43:22 AM
Dispensing with metaphors, what is it that is finally the inciting event to axt/worry about? Once upon a time we would have cared about elected officials so brazenly trying to subvert democracy/convincing swathes of the public to think our elections are rigged.
There's nothing in the letter that tries to convince the public our election was rigged.
It's a rather clever attempt to bridge the gap between the bitter enders and the sane wing of the party.
But at the same time pretty cynical, since they know this proposal is going nowhere.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2021, 04:36:45 AM
It's a rather clever attempt to bridge the gap between the bitter enders and the sane wing of the party.
That seems generous to a fair few of them. A number of them such as Tuberville are probably bitter enders I'd suggest. Cruz's motivation I suspect is to not let Hawley outflank him ahead of 2024. Johnson's got a re-election coming up and had said the election was legitimate - I suspect this is to stave of the risk of Trump endorsing a campaign against him in 2022.
I think it's, as is probably the case in all politics, a mix of the true believers and the cynics.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 03, 2021, 04:56:13 AM
That seems generous to a fair few of them. A number of them such as Tuberville are probably bitter enders I'd suggest. Cruz's motivation I suspect is to not let Hawley outflank him ahead of 2024. Johnson's got a re-election coming up and had said the election was legitimate - I suspect this is to stave of the risk of Trump endorsing a campaign against him in 2022.
I think it's, as is probably the case in all politics, a mix of the true believers and the cynics.
I haven't heard Tuberville speak on teh fraud issue but I have heard Hawley, and what he said reads a lot like this document. He doesn't come out and say "this election was rigged" (at least not in the stuff I've seen); he says the problem is that a lot of voters *think* it was rigged. That's not a bitter ender position. It's a cynical stradler/lawyer weasel position.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2021, 05:25:53 AM
I haven't heard Tuberville speak on teh fraud issue but I have heard Hawley, and what he said reads a lot like this document. He doesn't come out and say "this election was rigged" (at least not in the stuff I've seen); he says the problem is that a lot of voters *think* it was rigged. That's not a bitter ender position. It's a cynical stradler/lawyer weasel position.
I agree I'd put Hawley in the cynical camp. He's looking at 2024:
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
So true. Thanks Josh!
QuoteJosh Hawley
@HawleyMO
It's time to STAND UP
As I say my guess is that Cruz is signing that letter so Hawley doesn't outflank him on the right/Trumpist wing either. Because even if none of the family run I expect the Trumps will be reminding voters who, faced with a stolen election, stood up for Trump/a fair election and who didn't.
Quote from: DGuller on January 02, 2021, 04:47:48 PM
Regardless of how January 6 goes, I wonder if that now means that if GOP controls both House and Senate in 2025, then we'll have a Republican President?
Why wait until then, it could happen in 2023.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 03, 2021, 04:25:09 AM
Back in 2000, there were several members of the House who tried to block GWB's inauguration. It came to nothing, just as this will.
Several members of the House != 11+ senators, the incumbent and god knows how many members of the House (100+ who supported the Texas lawsuit?). It just doesn't compare. Also the election in 2000 was actually close. I agree it won't to come to anything, but it's well beyond anything previously seen.
If 11 Senators got into the habit of urinating all over the Senate floor during open sessions, I don't think the reaction would be to say it's no big deal, it's only 11. But that would be considerably less destructive than what these 11 Senators are doing.
Washington Post got a hold of audio of a phone call between the Sec of State of Georgia and Trump.
The link has the audio if you want to hear it directly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia-vote/2021/01/03/d45acb92-4dc4-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
'I just want to find 11,780 votes': In extraordinary hour-long call, Trump pressures Georgia secretary of state to recalculate the vote in his favorQuotePresident Trump urged fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, to "find" enough votes to overturn his defeat in an extraordinary one-hour phone call Saturday that election experts said raised legal questions.
The Washington Post obtained a recording of the conversation in which Trump alternately berated Raffensperger, tried to flatter him, begged him to act and threatened him with vague criminal consequences if the secretary of state refused to pursue his false claims, at one point warning that Raffensperger was taking "a big risk."
Throughout the call, Raffensperger and his office's general counsel rejected Trump's assertions, explaining that the president is relying on debunked conspiracy theories and that President-elect Joe Biden's 11,779-vote victory in Georgia was fair and accurate.
Trump dismissed their arguments.
"The people of Georgia are angry, the people in the country are angry," he said. "And there's nothing wrong with saying, you know, um, that you've recalculated."
Raffensperger responded: "Well, Mr. President, the challenge that you have is, the data you have is wrong."
Election results under attack: Here are the facts
At another point, Trump said: "So look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state."
The rambling and at times incoherent conversation offered a remarkable glimpse of how consumed and desperate the president remains about his loss, unwilling or unable to let the matter go and still believing he can reverse the results in enough battleground states to remain in office.
"There's no way I lost Georgia," Trump said, a phrase he repeated again and again on the call. "There's no way. We won by hundreds of thousands of votes."
Several of his allies were on the line as he spoke, including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and conservative lawyer Cleta Mitchell, a prominent GOP attorney whose involvement with Trump's efforts had not been previously known.
In a statement, Mitchell said Raffensperger's office "has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President's election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong."
The White House, the Trump campaign and Meadows did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Raffensperger's office declined to comment.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted that he had spoken to Raffensperger, saying the secretary of state was "unwilling, or unable, to answer questions such as the 'ballots under table' scam, ballot destruction, out of state 'voters', dead voters, and more. He has no clue!"
Raffensperger responded with his own tweet: "Respectfully, President Trump: What you're saying is not true."
The pressure Trump put on Raffensperger is the latest example of his attempt to subvert the outcome of the Nov. 3 election through personal outreach to state Republican officials. He previously invited Michigan Republican state leaders to the White House, pressured Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in a call to try to replace that state's electors and asked the speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives to help reverse his loss in that state.
His call to Raffensperger came as scores of Republicans have pledged to challenge the electoral college's vote for Biden when Congress convenes for a joint session on Wednesday. Republicans do not have the votes to successfully thwart Biden's victory, but Trump has urged supporters to travel to Washington to protest the outcome, and state and federal officials are already bracing for clashes outside the Capitol.
Growing number of Trump loyalists in the Senate vow to challenge Biden's victory
During their conversation, Trump issued a vague threat to both Raffensperger and Ryan Germany, the secretary of state's general counsel, suggesting that if they don't find that thousands of ballots in Fulton County have been illegally destroyed to block investigators — an allegation for which there is no evidence — they would be subject to criminal liability.
"That's a criminal offense," he said. "And you can't let that happen. That's a big risk to you and to Ryan, your lawyer."
Trump also told Raffensperger that failure to act by Tuesday would jeopardize the political fortunes of David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, Georgia's two Republican senators whose fate in that day's runoff elections will determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Trump said he plans to talk about the fraud on Monday, when he is scheduled to lead an election eve rally in Dalton, Ga. — a message that could further muddle the efforts of Republicans to get their voters out.
"You have a big election coming up and because of what you've done to the president — you know, the people of Georgia know that this was a scam," Trump said. "Because of what you've done to the president, a lot of people aren't going out to vote, and a lot of Republicans are going to vote negative, because they hate what you did to the president. Okay? They hate it. And they're going to vote. And you would be respected, really respected, if this can be straightened out before the election."
Trump's conversation with Raffensperger put him in legally questionable territory, legal experts said. By exhorting the secretary of state to "find" votes and to deploy investigators who "want to find answers," Trump appears to be encouraging him to doctor the election outcome in Georgia.
But experts said Trump's clearer transgression is a moral one. Edward B. Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University, said that the legal questions are murky and would be subject to prosecutorial discretion. But he also emphasized that the call was "inappropriate and contemptible" and should prompt moral outrage.
"He was already tripping the emergency meter," Foley said. "So we were at 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and now we're at 15."
Throughout the call, Trump detailed an exhaustive list of disinformation and conspiracy theories to support his position. He claimed without evidence that he had won Georgia by at least a half-million votes. He floated a barrage of assertions that have been investigated and disproved: that thousands of dead people voted; that an Atlanta election worker scanned 18,000 forged ballots three times each and "100 percent" were for Biden; that thousands more voters living out of state came back to Georgia illegally just to vote in the election.
"So tell me, Brad, what are we going to do? We won the election, and it's not fair to take it away from us like this," Trump said. "And it's going to be very costly in many ways. And I think you have to say that you're going to reexamine it, and you can reexamine it, but reexamine it with people that want to find answers, not people who don't want to find answers."
Trump did most of the talking on the call. He was angry and impatient, calling Raffensperger a "child" and "either dishonest or incompetent" for not believing there was widespread ballot fraud in Atlanta — and twice calling himself a "schmuck" for endorsing Kemp, whom Trump holds in particular contempt for not embracing his claims of fraud.
"I can't imagine he's ever getting elected again, I'll tell you that much right now," he said.
He also took aim at Kemp's 2018 opponent, Democrat Stacey Abrams, trying to shame Raffensperger with the idea that his refusal to embrace fraud has helped her and Democrats generally. "Stacey Abrams is laughing about you," he said. "She's going around saying, 'These guys are dumber than a rock.' What she's done to this party is unbelievable, I tell you."
The secretary of state repeatedly sought to push back, saying at one point, "Mr. President, the problem you have with social media, they — people can say anything."
"Oh this isn't social media," Trump retorted. "This is Trump media. It's not social media. It's really not. It's not social media. I don't care about social media. I couldn't care less."
At another point, Trump claimed that votes were scanned three times: "Brad, why did they put the votes in three times? You know, they put 'em in three times."
Raffensperger responded: "Mr. President, they did not. We did an audit of that and we proved conclusively that they were not scanned three times."
Trump sounded at turns confused and meandering. At one point, he referred to Kemp as "George." He tossed out several different figures for Biden's margin of victory in Georgia and referred to the Senate runoff, which is Tuesday, as happening "tomorrow" and "Monday."
His desperation was perhaps most pronounced during an exchange with Germany, Raffensperger's general counsel, in which he openly begged for validation.
Trump: "Do you think it's possible that they shredded ballots in Fulton County? 'Cause that's what the rumor is. And also that Dominion took out machines. That Dominion is really moving fast to get rid of their, uh, machinery. Do you know anything about that? Because that's illegal."
Germany responded: "No, Dominion has not moved any machinery out of Fulton County."
Trump: "But have they moved the inner parts of the machines and replaced them with other parts?"
Germany: "No."
Trump: "Are you sure? Ryan?"
Germany: "I'm sure. I'm sure, Mr. President."
It was clear from the call that Trump has surrounded himself with aides who have fed his false perceptions that the election was stolen. When he claimed that more than 5,000 ballots were cast in Georgia in the name of dead people, Raffensperger responded forcefully: "The actual number was two. Two. Two people that were dead that voted."
But later, Meadows said, "I can promise you there are more than that."
Another Trump lawyer on the call, Kurt Hilbert, accused Raffensperger's office of refusing to turn over data to assess evidence of fraud, and also claimed awareness of at least 24,000 illegally cast ballots that would flip the result to Trump.
"It stands to reason that if the information is not forthcoming, there's something to hide," Hilbert said. "That's the problem that we have."
Reached by phone Sunday, Hilbert declined to comment.
In the end, Trump asked Germany to sit down with one of his attorneys to go over the allegations. Germany agreed.
Yet Trump also recognized that he was failing to persuade Raffensperger or Germany of anything, saying toward the end, "I know this phone call is going nowhere."
But he continued to make his case in repetitive fashion, until finally, after roughly an hour, Raffensperger put an end to the conversation: "Thank you, President Trump, for your time."
I suppose also nothing to worry about?
If you were worried before that Trump would try to steal the election, you can keep on worrying about it if you want to.
I am not worried that he will succeed.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2021, 04:34:28 PM
If you were worried before that Trump would try to steal the election, you can keep on worrying about it if you want to.
I am not worried that he will succeed.
What I am worried about is that such attempts will be normalized, and may succeed with better execution and tighter margins. What I'm also worried about is that lack of universal outrage about such things indicate that we're a country on the brink of something awful.
I take pills to maintain my positive outlook. :sleep:
Quote from: DGuller on January 03, 2021, 04:39:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2021, 04:34:28 PM
If you were worried before that Trump would try to steal the election, you can keep on worrying about it if you want to.
I am not worried that he will succeed.
What I am worried about is that such attempts will be normalized, and may succeed with better execution and tighter margins. What I'm also worried about is that lack of universal outrage about such things indicate that we're a country on the brink of something awful.
:yes:
Quote from: DGuller on January 03, 2021, 04:39:06 PM
What I am worried about is that such attempts will be normalized, and may succeed with better execution and tighter margins. What I'm also worried about is that lack of universal outrage about such things indicate that we're a country on the brink of something awful.
Sure, if you were worried before that a large chunk of Republican voters are certifiably insane, and they will continue to vote in our lifetimes, yeah, you can go on worrying about that. I have and I do. But that is not new information revealed by this tape.
I agree with Guller. This sort of behavior is unacceptable in politics. If Biden made a similar call to the Sec of State of say, Florida, then I would demand his immediate impeachment. If this becomes acceptable I have no idea what would happen.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2021, 04:34:28 PM
If you were worried before that Trump would try to steal the election, you can keep on worrying about it if you want to.
I am not worried that he will succeed.
Nobody is worried that Trump will try to steal the election, because it already happened. I don't think he will succeed either, but I am worried that he won't be punished for it.
Trump knows that Steiner has an entre army and will break through at any moment.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2021, 05:18:11 PM
Nobody is worried that Trump will try to steal the election, because it already happened.
It's almost like I just said that. :)
Quote from: grumbler on January 03, 2021, 05:41:04 PM
Trump knows that Steiner has an entre army and will break through at any moment.
Indeed.
I hope someone switched the damned football a long time ago.
He's completely delusional.
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2021, 05:18:11 PM
I am worried that he won't be punished for it.
He won't be.
He and his family will be walking free creating havok and chaos for years.
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2021, 06:42:23 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2021, 05:18:11 PM
I am worried that he won't be punished for it.
He won't be.
He and his family will be walking free creating havok and chaos for years.
Mussolini's family is still involved in politics isn't it? Why not Trumps.
This is just printing money for them.
Trump seems deeply unpatriotic, he thinks it can be run like a banana republic.
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2021, 06:42:23 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2021, 05:18:11 PM
I am worried that he won't be punished for it.
He won't be.
He and his family will be walking free creating havok and chaos for years.
No. Trump isn't going to be alive much longer, and his family is not only extremely stupid, but also as charismatic as a sack of dog shit. They may swim in the shark-infested waters for a couple of months, but they'll get eaten long before 2024's elections.
Quote from: mongers on January 03, 2021, 07:40:27 PM
Trump seems deeply unpatriotic, he thinks it can be run like a banana republic.
He's just delusional. It will be interesting to see if his subordinates "pass the test" when he issues his own Nero Decree.
This is, by the way, an impeachable offense.
Quote from: grumbler on January 03, 2021, 08:10:27 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 03, 2021, 07:40:27 PM
Trump seems deeply unpatriotic, he thinks it can be run like a banana republic.
He's just delusional. It will be interesting to see if his subordinates "pass the test" when he issues his own Nero Decree.
So what's your take on the letter in the Washington post from the 'defense community'?
Seems like they'll be refusing all such decrees and attempts to overturn the election.
Cleta Mitchell is a partner at Foley & Larder, an AmLaw 100 law firm (top 50 gross in the US with annual revenue of nearly $1 billion). Don't think the firm will welcome this kind of press.
10 former Defense Secretaries have written a piece warning of the dangers of military intervention in elections.
I don't think that's something they would just do in a generalised sense unless they had concerns something was up that they were worried about.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 03, 2021, 10:22:29 PM
10 former Defense Secretaries have written a piece warning of the dangers of military intervention in elections.
I don't think that's something they would just do in a generalised sense unless they had concerns something was up that they were worried about.
Yes, that's what I was referring to above in my post to Grumbler.
Does indeed seem somewhat out of the ordinary, the only coverage I've seen on it was Al Jazeera and they thought it significant, have seen what UK media is saying.
Quote from: mongers on January 03, 2021, 11:18:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 03, 2021, 10:22:29 PM
10 former Defense Secretaries have written a piece warning of the dangers of military intervention in elections.
I don't think that's something they would just do in a generalised sense unless they had concerns something was up that they were worried about.
Yes, that's what I was referring to above in my post to Grumbler.
Does indeed seem somewhat out of the ordinary, the only coverage I've seen on it was Al Jazeera and they thought it significant, have seen what UK media is saying.
I've only seen the WaPo piece itself, but I think it is aimed squarely at the new administration at DoD, supposedly chosen for its loyalty to Der
Fuhr Donald. It's
100% of all former SecDefs saying "touching the third rail will kill you." It's remarkable both for what it is and because its authors obviously thought that the current regime was so venal or stupid that they didn't realize the true nature of their jobs. The current guys are there to conduct the surrender.
David Purdue is shocked and disgusted by the tape. Not by Trump's shakedown, that is perfectly OK it seems. Rather the fact that the tape of the crime was leaked to the press.
Once upon a time, GOP Senators came together to tell Nixon it was time to go. Now they compete to be more morally corrupt than the worst of Nixon's flunkies ever were.
Seems trump will have to be physically evicted afterall. The tape makes no sense really. Let the baby have Georgia then what? He gets to say his victory was bigger than his defeat?
Interesting playing for time. Demanding a 10 day delay in inauguration for another investigation. There's no way they can seriously think over turning the whole thing is a prospect. They must be doing it with an eye to 2024 and just trying to make as much shit as possible stick about this.
Quote from: Tyr on January 04, 2021, 03:17:43 AM
Seems trump will have to be physically evicted afterall. The tape makes no sense really. Let the baby have Georgia then what? He gets to say his victory was bigger than his defeat?
He probably made more calls, to the other states. This is just the one that got leaked.
Quote from: grumbler on January 03, 2021, 05:41:04 PM
Trump knows that Steiner has an entre army and will break through at any moment.
Well, there are going to be a lot of armed thedonald.win crazies in DC on the 6th.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 03, 2021, 10:22:29 PM
10 former Defense Secretaries have written a piece warning of the dangers of military intervention in elections.
I don't think that's something they would just do in a generalised sense unless they had concerns something was up that they were worried about.
They hate America. They all hate America. Who will stand and defend the dear leader?
One Republican Congressman opposed the seating of his colleagues in contested States, specifically those who contest the results of the election, on the ground that if there is a massive fraud in one electoral system, it stands to reason that their election should be contested on the same grounds, using the same system as the other election.
Quote from: viper37 on January 04, 2021, 08:53:51 AM
One Republican Congressman opposed the seating of his colleagues in contested States, specifically those who contest the results of the election, on the ground that if there is a massive fraud in one electoral system, it stands to reason that their election should be contested on the same grounds, using the same system as the other election.
Roy of Texas
https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/01/03/rep-chip-roy-objects-representatives-challenging-bidens-win/4122566001/
Yes, him, thank you for the link, Tim :)
It's only a stand on principles, does not change anything, but it's nice to see that a couple of Republicans haven't sold their souls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEYvOTvqlFs
Georgia Voting Systems Manager debunking fraud allegations. It's long.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 05:21:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEYvOTvqlFs
Georgia Voting Systems Manager debunking fraud allegations. It's long.
Too late; doesn't matter.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 04, 2021, 11:30:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 05:21:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEYvOTvqlFs
Georgia Voting Systems Manager debunking fraud allegations. It's long.
Too late; doesn't matter.
I hope you are right, sine he was trying to reverse Republican voter self-suppression in tomorrow's election.
From your mouth to God's ear.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 04, 2021, 11:30:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 05:21:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEYvOTvqlFs
Georgia Voting Systems Manager debunking fraud allegations. It's long.
Too late; doesn't matter.
Too late? What the fuck? There has been consistent "debunking" all along. People just don't want to accept reality, and there are plenty of opportunists ready to cater to them.
The "Georgia Voting Systems Manager" is not exactly a prominent public official.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2021, 09:43:24 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 04, 2021, 11:30:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 05:21:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEYvOTvqlFs
Georgia Voting Systems Manager debunking fraud allegations. It's long.
Too late; doesn't matter.
Too late? What the fuck? There has been consistent "debunking" all along. People just don't want to accept reality, and there are plenty of opportunists ready to cater to them.
The "Georgia Voting Systems Manager" is not exactly a prominent public official.
Precisely. Which is why I say it doesn't matter. You now have a substantial body of Americans who will forever believe that the elections were stolen through fraud by the Democratic party; that these Republicans are doing their duty to the Constitution - because that is the narrative being pushed; that the President is merely trying to restore what has, in face, truly happened. Now, every attempt at showing how, in fact, it is Trump who is attempting a coup, is received as him actually trying to prevent the real coup by the Deep state; that his attempts, and Republicans attempts at disenfranchisement are actually to preserve the voice of Americans.
It is too late because people waited for the thing to happen in order to fight the narrative. Trump has been telegraphing his behavior in these current moments four years ago. The time to prepare for this sort of manoeuvre was then, not now. Now, it's too late. Trump may not get away with it - as in, he may yet be removed (and the fact that many feel the need to use that conditional ought to be utterly frightening). But illiberal Republicans will not be going away, and they have their base, and it is substantial. That base is functioning just like their equivalents are in Hungary, believing themselves the true defenders of what they are actively undermining.
People who want to believe Trump's narrative will, but for most the truth is more important.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 05, 2021, 10:21:45 AM
People who want to believe Trump's narrative will, but for most the truth is more important.
I'd like to believe that, but these believers are very politically active, and keep successfully electing Republicans to key positions. We are not talking about a marginal constituency here.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 05, 2021, 10:17:20 AM
Precisely. Which is why I say it doesn't matter. You now have a substantial body of Americans who will forever believe that the elections were stolen through fraud by the Democratic party; that these Republicans are doing their duty to the Constitution - because that is the narrative being pushed; that the President is merely trying to restore what has, in face, truly happened. Now, every attempt at showing how, in fact, it is Trump who is attempting a coup, is received as him actually trying to prevent the real coup by the Deep state; that his attempts, and Republicans attempts at disenfranchisement are actually to preserve the voice of Americans.
It is too late because people waited for the thing to happen in order to fight the narrative. Trump has been telegraphing his behavior in these current moments four years ago. The time to prepare for this sort of manoeuvre was then, not now. Now, it's too late. Trump may not get away with it - as in, he may yet be removed (and the fact that many feel the need to use that conditional ought to be utterly frightening). But illiberal Republicans will not be going away, and they have their base, and it is substantial. That base is functioning just like their equivalents are in Hungary, believing themselves the true defenders of what they are actively undermining.
I don't follow your logic here. Republican officials are debunking allegations of fraud, but people still believe there was widespread fraud. You say if they had started earlier, before the allegations of fraud were made, people would have changed their minds?
As an aside, what's the deal with the 17% of Democrats who believe the election was rigged? Berniebros still butthurt about the primary?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2021, 10:58:35 AM
As an aside, what's the deal with the 17% of Democrats who believe the election was rigged?
Possibly a reaction to various state and local voter suppression efforts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRGq4BNgMxg
Republican pollster Frank Lutz says things look bad for Republicans in GA senate runoff.
I'd really save the outrage for tomorrow, when elected republicans vote to reject the electoral votes of certain states that went to Biden. I think that will happen, and that is beyond the pale.
Come to think of it, one way the Dems can respond to this bipartisan commission blather is to say sure - so long as the commission's responsibility encompasses voter suppression efforts like polling place closures and recommendation of a new formula for Congress to enact for Section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2021, 11:15:31 AM
I'd really save the outrage for tomorrow, when elected republicans vote to reject the electoral votes of certain states that went to Biden. I think that will happen, and that is beyond the pale.
That does get to Oex's point - the time for the outrage is when it is proposed not after it is done. To make clear before the fact that behavior has consequences.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 05, 2021, 11:22:45 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2021, 11:15:31 AM
I'd really save the outrage for tomorrow, when elected republicans vote to reject the electoral votes of certain states that went to Biden. I think that will happen, and that is beyond the pale.
That does get to Oex's point - the time for the outrage is when it is proposed not after it is done. To make clear before the fact that behavior has consequences.
Both Republican Senate candidates in Georgia have said they will object to the electoral vote submission. What good is acting outraged going to serve? I guess we will have an idea this evening if their calculations are correct, but it seems they have calculated it is to their advantage to do so. They think the consequence of their behavior will be election to the US Senate - I presume well paid consultants told them this. People that were never going to vote for them anyway acting outraged won't solve that.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2021, 11:53:08 AM
Both Republican Senate candidates in Georgia have said they will object to the electoral vote submission. What good is acting outraged going to serve? I guess we will have an idea this evening if their calculations are correct, but it seems they have calculated it is to their advantage to do so. They think the consequence of their behavior will be election to the US Senate - I presume well paid consultants told them this. People that were never going to vote for them anyway acting outraged won't solve that.
PRetty sure the consultants told them that saying Georgia's election was illegitimate would hurt them - but that breaking with Trump would hurt them more.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2021, 11:15:21 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRGq4BNgMxg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRGq4BNgMxg)
Republican pollster Frank Lutz says things look bad for Republicans in GA senate runoff.
God, I hope so. If Trump costs the party two Senate seats it may bring about some sort of introspection. That may be too much to hope for, but it's at least something.
Quote from: Barrister on January 05, 2021, 12:12:05 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 05, 2021, 11:53:08 AM
Both Republican Senate candidates in Georgia have said they will object to the electoral vote submission. What good is acting outraged going to serve? I guess we will have an idea this evening if their calculations are correct, but it seems they have calculated it is to their advantage to do so. They think the consequence of their behavior will be election to the US Senate - I presume well paid consultants told them this. People that were never going to vote for them anyway acting outraged won't solve that.
PRetty sure the consultants told them that saying Georgia's election was illegitimate would hurt them - but that breaking with Trump would hurt them more.
You say potato, I say potato. (I guess the different pronunciations don't come through well in text)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2021, 10:58:35 AM
I don't follow your logic here. Republican officials are debunking allegations of fraud, but people still believe there was widespread fraud. You say if they had started earlier, before the allegations of fraud were made, people would have changed their minds?
I am saying that these Republicans were happy to let the whole discourse about fraud flourish as long as it allowed to score cheap political points, and that whatever they do now is too late. It has undermined American democracy and their fact-based, meek interventions have purposefully lost their power. I do not share ET's optimism that most people are convinced by facts and truth. Truth is being rationalized a posteriori. The most admirable proof of it is that it is Republicans who are pushing the narrative of fraud while being in the process of attempting to commit one.
I am saying Democrats have done essentially nothing to prepare for what was telegraphed years ago about Trump's rhetoric and practice, and have yielded the terrain of "voter fraud" to Republicans and conspiracy theorists. They have indeed waited for every line to be crossed before actually reacting very weakly, in the vain hopes that facts and institutions would do the job automatically for them, at the moment of transgression. It has always put them in the position of reacting to things, which perversely enough, validates the concerns of radical Republicans. I think it's a very poor reading of current politics.
*Of course* allegations of fraud are full of shit. That was a given four years ago, and it is a given now. It was a political talking point that had taken deep roots within the Republican party. You don't wait to prepare against that rhetorical weapon until after the election when it's conclusively proven that there was no fraud - just in case there would be a handful of cases of fraud.
Trumpism hasn't been crushed. It hasn't been conclusively repudiated. It has suffered a setback. It's not even sure that Democrats will win the Georgia senators. Nothing that I am seeing right now about the reaction to these last few weeks is giving me much hope for the next few years. It's going to be a long, protracted battle and Trump has normalized so much transgressions already. I mean, FFS, former officials felt the need to intervene publicly to warn against using the military in an electoral battle. Would you ever have thought this would happen, ten years ago?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2021, 10:58:35 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 05, 2021, 10:17:20 AM
Precisely. Which is why I say it doesn't matter. You now have a substantial body of Americans who will forever believe that the elections were stolen through fraud by the Democratic party; that these Republicans are doing their duty to the Constitution - because that is the narrative being pushed; that the President is merely trying to restore what has, in face, truly happened. Now, every attempt at showing how, in fact, it is Trump who is attempting a coup, is received as him actually trying to prevent the real coup by the Deep state; that his attempts, and Republicans attempts at disenfranchisement are actually to preserve the voice of Americans.
It is too late because people waited for the thing to happen in order to fight the narrative. Trump has been telegraphing his behavior in these current moments four years ago. The time to prepare for this sort of manoeuvre was then, not now. Now, it's too late. Trump may not get away with it - as in, he may yet be removed (and the fact that many feel the need to use that conditional ought to be utterly frightening). But illiberal Republicans will not be going away, and they have their base, and it is substantial. That base is functioning just like their equivalents are in Hungary, believing themselves the true defenders of what they are actively undermining.
I don't follow your logic here. Republican officials are debunking allegations of fraud, but people still believe there was widespread fraud. You say if they had started earlier, before the allegations of fraud were made, people would have changed their minds?
The thesis that if the Republicans had called bullshit on the past allegations of fraud then the current allegations of fraud would have less traction is not that hard to follow.
The difficultly you may be having is that it is fantasy to suggest that the GOP en mass would ever do such a thing.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 05, 2021, 03:47:05 PM
Would you ever have thought this would happen, ten years ago?
When was the last time anyone cared or noticed what the hell happens at the joint session to count the electoral votes? The mere fact that the meeting is remotely newsworthy is itself a bad sign for the stability of the system going forward. When the routine plumbing of a democratic system becomes a contested choke point for partisan fighting, that is not a healthy situation.
Exactly.
I know I sound like a broken record, but you all really must get involved - and deeply involved - in the political process in the US, and not pin your hopes on some unforeseen savior, or some amazing new political leader. Involve your friends and relatives, too. Yes, it's going to be boring, and uncomfortable, and clearly you'll have to deal with people I am sure you'll feel are morons, but there is no easy way around it. Ask your representatives to be accountable, at all levels. Follow local news stories that don't get picked up by national media: people can build a lot of credibility by being invested in local stories, and it is on that basis of trust that one can make inroads into the propaganda bunker of Trumpism.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 05, 2021, 10:17:20 AM
Precisely. Which is why I say it doesn't matter. You now have a substantial body of Americans who will forever believe that the elections were stolen through fraud by the Democratic party; that these Republicans are doing their duty to the Constitution - because that is the narrative being pushed; that the President is merely trying to restore what has, in face, truly happened. Now, every attempt at showing how, in fact, it is Trump who is attempting a coup, is received as him actually trying to prevent the real coup by the Deep state; that his attempts, and Republicans attempts at disenfranchisement are actually to preserve the voice of Americans.
It is too late because people waited for the thing to happen in order to fight the narrative. Trump has been telegraphing his behavior in these current moments four years ago. The time to prepare for this sort of manoeuvre was then, not now. Now, it's too late. Trump may not get away with it - as in, he may yet be removed (and the fact that many feel the need to use that conditional ought to be utterly frightening). But illiberal Republicans will not be going away, and they have their base, and it is substantial. That base is functioning just like their equivalents are in Hungary, believing themselves the true defenders of what they are actively undermining.
It's funny, when you think about it.
These Republicans are deeply concerned about the rise of socialism in America.
Then they turn around and use the same fucking narrative and techniques as Chavez&Maduro.
Funny fact.
One of Trump's lawyer-lobbyists gurus is Cleta Mitchell of Foley & Lardner. She was on the infamous phone call with Raffensperger.
Foley and Lardner signed a 12 million dollar deal to represent the Maduro regime; they eventually dropped them as a client due to the PR fallout.
I'm starting to think that some lawyers would take on anyone as a client for a big enough fee.
After following the Georgia runoffs for approximately zero days I can confidently say that the winners will be
Quote from: DGuller on January 05, 2021, 05:10:37 PM
I'm starting to think that some lawyers would take on anyone as a client for a big enough fee.
Reminded me of our Canon of Ethics which, in part, requires: "No client is entitled to receive, nor should any lawyer render any service or advice involving disloyalty to the state or disrespect for judicial office, or the corruption of any persons exercising a public or private trust, or deception or betrayal of the public."
I wonder if Trump's lawyer is subject to a similar obligation.
Quote from: DGuller on January 05, 2021, 05:10:37 PM
I'm starting to think that some lawyers would take on anyone as a client for a big enough fee.
The issue with taking Trump as a client isn't just morals. He stiffs everyone he hires. But maybe Cleta Mitchell is working pro bono.
Maybe she is working pro malus instead.
"Republican majority of the Pennsylvania State Senate just removed (Lieutenant Governor) John Fetterman from the chamber. President Pro Temp Corman is presiding instead. Fetterman refused to recognize a motion that would have prevented a duly elected Democratic senator, Nicole Ziccarelli, from being sworn in." They succeeded in their effort in denying, not even delaying, the swearing in of the state senator in question leaving their district with no representation. The PA State Supreme Court ruled on the issue which gave the very close victory to the Democratic nominee. The Republicans have decided they will not accept this and have turned to the Federal Court system which, as far as I can tell, has no jurisdiction/ability to overturn the State Supreme Court decision. Another dangerous precedent set.
https://twitter.com/abgutman/status/1346519659005284353
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/spl/jim-brewster-pennsylvania-senate-gop-refuse-to-seat-nicole-ziccarelli-20210104.html
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 05, 2021, 03:47:05 PM
I am saying that these Republicans were happy to let the whole discourse about fraud flourish as long as it allowed to score cheap political points, and that whatever they do now is too late. It has undermined American democracy and their fact-based, meek interventions have purposefully lost their power. I do not share ET's optimism that most people are convinced by facts and truth. Truth is being rationalized a posteriori. The most admirable proof of it is that it is Republicans who are pushing the narrative of fraud while being in the process of attempting to commit one.
I am saying Democrats have done essentially nothing to prepare for what was telegraphed years ago about Trump's rhetoric and practice, and have yielded the terrain of "voter fraud" to Republicans and conspiracy theorists. They have indeed waited for every line to be crossed before actually reacting very weakly, in the vain hopes that facts and institutions would do the job automatically for them, at the moment of transgression. It has always put them in the position of reacting to things, which perversely enough, validates the concerns of radical Republicans. I think it's a very poor reading of current politics.
*Of course* allegations of fraud are full of shit. That was a given four years ago, and it is a given now. It was a political talking point that had taken deep roots within the Republican party. You don't wait to prepare against that rhetorical weapon until after the election when it's conclusively proven that there was no fraud - just in case there would be a handful of cases of fraud.
Trumpism hasn't been crushed. It hasn't been conclusively repudiated. It has suffered a setback. It's not even sure that Democrats will win the Georgia senators. Nothing that I am seeing right now about the reaction to these last few weeks is giving me much hope for the next few years. It's going to be a long, protracted battle and Trump has normalized so much transgressions already. I mean, FFS, former officials felt the need to intervene publicly to warn against using the military in an electoral battle. Would you ever have thought this would happen, ten years ago?
There may be something to what you say, but by the same token every Republican who called out Trump could have been primaried and replaced. Plenty of Republicans called him out during the presidential primary but he won anyway. Several administration's worth of Intelligence community appointees said he was not fit. So if the claim is if Republican officials had started out earlier calling out Trump then Republican rank and file would not be QAnon nutters now I'm not sure I agree.
I guess it's notable that trump lost by quite some margin however the house and senate elections were pretty bad for the dems?
This does point towards sane republicans being reasonably numerous.
Quote from: Tyr on January 05, 2021, 06:00:28 PM
I guess it's notable that trump lost by quite some margin however the house and senate elections were pretty bad for the dems?
This does point towards sane republicans being reasonably numerous.
I think the calculus is that Trump brought out some poor white voters that have been disengaged. Those voters plus traditional republicans were formidable down ballot. But Trump turned off enough traditional republicans that he lost.
I think the reason the party is turning trumpist is that they hope to keep those poor white voters while keeping traditional republicans if they take some of the rough edges off of Trump. Trumpism without Trump basically.
It isn't a profound statement to say that Trumpism/the current Republican Party doesn't stand for anything. Their ads are all about stopping socialism and rioting. The major election billboard entering Atlanta was "It is America vs. Communism". Honestly, I think there is just a realignment going on and it will be a few years before this all shakes out.
The GOP are Communists now?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2021, 10:17:27 PM
Cleta Mitchell is a partner at Foley & Larder, an AmLaw 100 law firm (top 50 gross in the US with annual revenue of nearly $1 billion). Don't think the firm will welcome this kind of press.
... And she "resigned"!
Quote from: The Brain on January 05, 2021, 06:50:45 PM
The GOP are Communists now?
they share a lot of traits with the far left: political violence, isolatonism, economic decline, opposition to international treaties and opposition to democracy when it does not suit their needs.
Quote from: viper37 on January 05, 2021, 06:54:17 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2021, 10:17:27 PM
Cleta Mitchell is a partner at Foley & Larder, an AmLaw 100 law firm (top 50 gross in the US with annual revenue of nearly $1 billion). Don't think the firm will welcome this kind of press.
... And she "resigned"!
No surprise there.
Quote from: viper37 on January 05, 2021, 06:55:38 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 05, 2021, 06:50:45 PM
The GOP are Communists now?
they share a lot of traits with the far left: political violence, isolatonism, economic decline, opposition to international treaties and opposition to democracy when it does not suit their needs.
Nah. At least a Communist believes in something.
Quote from: Tyr on January 05, 2021, 06:00:28 PM
I guess it's notable that trump lost by quite some margin however the house and senate elections were pretty bad for the dems?
This does point towards sane republicans being reasonably numerous.
I think it's less about sane Republicans and more about insane independents.
GA. GENERAL: RUNOFF
45% results in
CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Raphael Warnock (Dem) 54.5% 1,020,479
Kelly Loeffler (GOP) ● 45.5% 850,744
Source: AP (as of 7:29 p.m. CT on Jan. 5, 2021)
● - Incumbent
GA. GENERAL: RUNOFF
45% results in
CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Jon Ossoff (Dem) 54.2% 1,013,332
David Perdue (GOP) ● 45.8% 857,619
Source: AP (as of 7:29 p.m. CT on Jan. 5, 2021)
Not bad so far.
I like it! :)
The GOP shooting itself in the foot would be wonderful :)
How are the early votes counted? Before, same time, or after in-person votes?
Watching the Democrats sloooowly lose their 9+ point leads has been painful. Will this be another case where absentee totals and big cities report later so the blue hangover will hit?
It seems impossible to know what to read into the early numbers unless you know the order in which votes are being counted. Are these Georgia runoff elections more like Florida or more like Pennsylvania when it comes to the timing of votes being reported?
Wicked close but the trend looks the wrong way.
FWIW, PredictIt seems 80% confident Dems will sweep tonight, which probably means 85%-90% chance of winning after applying MAGA correction factor.
The needle was right on the money in Georgia in November, and they say we will win
nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html
Warnock +1.7
Ossoff +1.0
If both Democrats do pull it out, I hope they and the rest of Democratic Senators from Republican governor states have good security arrangements. :ph34r: One crazy nut really could make a whole lot of difference.
Wasserman calls the Warnock race
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536
This looks like it's over. All that's left are Dem votes in the big counties, more than enough to overcome the Rep leads now.
Congrats to Senators-elect Ossof and Warnock. I'm going to bed.
I'm not sure we should trust people on Twitter.
What source are you using Funky? Google is showing both good guys trailing by about a hundred grand with 90% reporting.
NYT has that it is De Kalb County coming in late - apparently a very strong Democratic Atlanta suburb. NYT has both trending to win at the moment.
Biden won DeKalb County by 250,000 votes (58,000 v 308,000). Just about every Biden won area is coming in stronger for Democrats in the Senate races so far.
https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/ElectionSummaryReportRPT-Official%20and%20Complete%2011.03.2020.pdf
Ooooh Dekalb.
Ossoff is about to pull ahead of Purdue, and now Warnock is substantially ahead of Loeffler. :D
I wonder if Georgia GOP is still feeling good about what they did in 2018. It seems that by striking Stacey Abrams down, they made her more powerful than they could've possibly imagined.
Still looks kinda close
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2021, 12:01:49 AM
Still looks kinda close
It is close, but the votes that are outstanding come from Democratic strongholds. It's over, and Georgia now gets to stop being a retard state. :yeah:
Quote from: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 12:03:14 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2021, 12:01:49 AM
Still looks kinda close
It is close, but the votes that are outstanding come from Democratic strongholds. It's over, and Georgia now gets to stop being a retard state. :yeah:
about damn time.
"My" state is still full retard. :huh:
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 05, 2021, 10:23:57 PM
This looks like it's over. All that's left are Dem votes in the big counties, more than enough to overcome the Rep leads now.
Congrats to Senators-elect Ossof and Warnock. I'm going to bed.
they can't take any chances. They should declare victory now and pretend what's left are illegal votes. Republicans would certainly agree, given the precedent :P
Oh shit they may have done it... :lol:
I cannot believe it. It is looking very probable we have won both seats. Who would have thought back in November that this would happen? Congrats to the all the Democrats who worked their asses off in Georgia over the past several weeks to make this happen.
Now maybe we can do something potentially great and maybe not get crushed in 2022, overcoming recent history. Possibilities might be opening up for old uncle Joe.
And Ossoff would be in there for a full six year term. Kick ass.
Ossof up 12,806 votes. Only dem areas left. Stick a fork in Perdue.
Strange that the difference between the two is so large. Everyone in the state gets a ballot for both right?
Seems some people want to try and give 1 a piece.
There are always going to be people for whom being balanced is a virtue in itself, and not thinking about what you're balancing is not a vice. Take 100 random people and I'm sure you can find one of those types easily.
Quote from: Tyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:37 AM
Strange that the difference between the two is so large. Everyone in the state gets a ballot for both right?
Seems some people want to try and give 1 a piece.
Maybe some of them vote for (or against) people, not party.
Quote from: Maladict on January 06, 2021, 04:07:52 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:37 AM
Strange that the difference between the two is so large. Everyone in the state gets a ballot for both right?
Seems some people want to try and give 1 a piece.
Maybe some of them vote for (or against) people, not party.
Yeah and I can see Loeffler being more offensive.
But this is good news - especially for the people of West Virginia who are about to get drowned in federal money :lol:
It's also an example - along with throwing Pence under bus - that there is always some cost in embracing Trump.
Nice to wake up to good news, for a change. As Sheilbh says, this could potentially show that there are costs for embracing full retardedness.
Now let's see what happens with today's congressional drama.
Who threw Pence under the bus and how?
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 06:09:50 AM
Who threw Pence under the bus and how?
Trump. He keeps saying that Pence has options to disapply votes or return counts to the state etc. So if Trump isn't elected today - it's Pence's fault.
Wow. Some great news this morning. Congrats Habs, your anti-republican trolling work! :lol:
Man, you stat guys know your stuff. You're like wizards or something.
Trump keeps losing Georgia. I didn't know it was possible to be this much of an incompetent loser.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 06, 2021, 06:41:38 AM
Wow. Some great news this morning. Congrats Habs, your anti-republican trolling work! :lol:
I can't believe that there are people who actually boycotted the election. My small contribution is nothing, but it makes me feel good. :lol:
The Age of Mitch is over. The Age of Dems is about to begin.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 06, 2021, 04:13:55 AM
But this is good news - especially for the people of West Virginia who are about to get drowned in federal money :lol:
Nothing they're not used to. West Virginia was Byrd's Country. :)
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 06, 2021, 08:20:19 AM
Trump keeps losing Georgia. I didn't know it was possible to be this much of an incompetent loser.
I do find it extraordinary that it looks like
Georgia will be represented by two Democrats in the Senate. :wacko:
The rise of the left/centre/sane in traditional conservative states has been a growing trend in recent years right?
Lately you've been seeing an awful lot of denialism about the Republicans and Democrats flipping platforms, the Democrats being racist, etc....
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 06, 2021, 08:21:12 AM
The Age of Mitch is over. The Age of Dems is about to begin.
Minority leader Mitch McDonnell has a nice ring to it.
Look for angry snowflakes to meltdown. If the Democrats win its proof that it was fixed. If the Republicans win it is proof that it was fixed but to throw everyone off.
I'm sure we'll see some violence.
Trump really fucked over Pence. But he had to have known this was coming as Trump has done that to damn near everyone who ever backed him once he got the chance.
What I don't get is why so many Republicans (and I mean politicians) continue to support Trump. It's obvious he has no loyalty; not to the party, not to its members, but only to himself. He will sweep out anyone in order to protect his own image. He's not even really a Republican idealogue, but mostly does what is necessary to support himself. Even in Georgia his speech to rally support for the senators was all about himself, and how his election was stolen.
Yet sane, conservatives continue to support him. I don't get it at all.
Primary fears from the Trump enthusiastic base.
Quote from: Josephus on January 06, 2021, 10:41:51 AM
Yet sane, conservatives continue to support him. I don't get it at all.
He won the Presidency where sane conservatives - McCain, Romney - didn't and that's enabled them to deliver on judges and tax cuts, and it = feels like that's the extent of their policy agenda. I think they've been as transactional as Trump.
If he was actually doing things like appointing populist judges, or pushing for massive spending on infrastructure then I don't think the sane conservatives would back him because he wouldn't serve any purpose.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 06, 2021, 10:48:35 AM
Quote from: Josephus on January 06, 2021, 10:41:51 AM
Yet sane, conservatives continue to support him. I don't get it at all.
He won the Presidency where sane conservatives - McCain, Romney - didn't and that's enabled them to deliver on judges and tax cuts, and it = feels like that's the extent of their policy agenda. I think they've been as transactional as Trump.
If he was actually doing things like appointing populist judges, or pushing for massive spending on infrastructure then I don't think the sane conservatives would back him because he wouldn't serve any purpose.
I really disagree with most of this take. :hug:
Trump actually won the Presidency as a moderate Republican. Sure he was going to build the wall, but border security is a legitimate topic. He was also going to protect social security, not raise taxes, keep jobs in the US. He never really mentioned judges or tax cuts.
As to why are Republicans clinging to him now? It has nothing to do with being transactional. He's lost. The judges have been appointed. The reason over 140+ GOP members f Congress, and 12 Senators, are going to object to the EC votes today is a combination or fear and ambition. Too much of their base are rabid Trump supporters and they fear being primaried. And also several (Cruz, Hawley) think there's some opportunity to "inherit" the mantle of Trumpism, so are going to cling to him as long as they can.
Quote from: Barrister on January 06, 2021, 11:00:34 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 06, 2021, 10:48:35 AM
Quote from: Josephus on January 06, 2021, 10:41:51 AM
Yet sane, conservatives continue to support him. I don't get it at all.
He won the Presidency where sane conservatives - McCain, Romney - didn't and that's enabled them to deliver on judges and tax cuts, and it = feels like that's the extent of their policy agenda. I think they've been as transactional as Trump.
If he was actually doing things like appointing populist judges, or pushing for massive spending on infrastructure then I don't think the sane conservatives would back him because he wouldn't serve any purpose.
I really disagree with most of this take. :hug:
Trump actually won the Presidency as a moderate Republican. Sure he was going to build the wall, but border security is a legitimate topic. He was also going to protect social security, not raise taxes, keep jobs in the US. He never really mentioned judges or tax cuts.
https://taxfoundation.org/details-analysis-donald-trump-tax-plan-2016/
Pretty sure you're wrong about the judges thing too, but I haven't dug into that.
It will be interesting to see how the voters of Georgia treat the current governor, lt. governor and secretary of state in the next election. Or any state with a Republican executive that Biden won.
They have lost the Mandate of Donald.
Quote from: Barrister on January 06, 2021, 11:00:34 AM
I really disagree with most of this take. :hug:
:lol: Good :hug:
QuoteTrump actually won the Presidency as a moderate Republican. Sure he was going to build the wall, but border security is a legitimate topic. He was also going to protect social security, not raise taxes, keep jobs in the US. He never really mentioned judges or tax cuts.
As to why are Republicans clinging to him now? It has nothing to do with being transactional. He's lost. The judges have been appointed. The reason over 140+ GOP members f Congress, and 12 Senators, are going to object to the EC votes today is a combination or fear and ambition. Too much of their base are rabid Trump supporters and they fear being primaried. And also several (Cruz, Hawley) think there's some opportunity to "inherit" the mantle of Trumpism, so are going to cling to him as long as they can.
Weirdly, given you disagree, I agree with most of this - I suppose I wasn't considering those 12 Senators (fuck knows with the House :bleeding: :lol:) as sane conservatives :P
Trump won as a populist - wall, protect social security, build infrastructure (though I feel like he definitely mentioned his list of potential judges as part of his pitch to evangelical voters). But he governed as a standard Republican - because Trump doesn't actually care about policy or have the personal qualities necessary to have an agenda. In office he was a McConnell Republican - tax cuts and judges.
And the reason the McConnell Republicans clung to him was because he was a way of delivering that agenda - if Trump wasn't useful I think it's fair to say there's an abundance of issues you could legitimately impeach him over (or even just defend him/keep the caucus together less - like when McConnell told Senators they should distance themselves from Trump this election if that helped them in their races).
The ones who are left are I think either true believers, or as you say looking to seize the mantle of Trumpism. I'm intrigued by Cotton's absence - it's not related but it feels like, if one of the Trump family don't run, that there may be a split with a sort of national security/law and order Trumpism by Cotton v economic Trumpism by Hawley (I suspect Cruz will be profoundly disappointed, again :lol:).
I always wonder about primaries - how many successful primaries of sitting Senators have there actually been in recent years? I can think of maybe one or two that I'm aware of. I always wonder how much the threat of primaries are a real motivation and how much they're just a cover for sticking with the party herd.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 06, 2021, 11:17:00 AM
The ones who are left are I think either true believers, or as you say looking to seize the mantle of Trumpism. I'm intrigued by Cotton's absence - it's not related but it feels like, if one of the Trump family don't run, that there may be a split with a sort of national security/law and order Trumpism by Cotton v economic Trumpism by Hawley (I suspect Cruz will be profoundly disappointed, again :lol:).
I always wonder about primaries - how many successful primaries of sitting Senators have there actually been in recent years? I can think of maybe one or two that I'm aware of. I always wonder how much the threat of primaries are a real motivation and how much they're just a cover for sticking with the party herd.
I think Cotton (who has stuck close to Trump for awhile now) is just making a political calculation - that in the longer run it'll be more dangerous to be seen to be taking such a nakedly anti-democratic move, and thus it's time to create some separation. Plus as you say the 100% Trumpist lane is kind of crowded by either Trump himself or his spawn.
Or who knows - maybe his conscience made him do it. Stranger things have happened in politics. :huh:
The primary concern is much higher in the house IIRC.
Quote from: Josephus on January 06, 2021, 10:41:51 AM
What I don't get is why so many Republicans (and I mean politicians) continue to support Trump. It's obvious he has no loyalty; not to the party, not to its members, but only to himself.
If only the question contained the answer.
Quote from: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 12:03:14 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 06, 2021, 12:01:49 AM
Still looks kinda close
It is close, but the votes that are outstanding come from Democratic strongholds. It's over, and Georgia now gets to stop being a retard state. :yeah:
Bizarrely the republicans continue to win all the state government positions. There were 3 statewide elections yesterday: 2 senate and 1 public service commissioner (whatever that is), and the republican won the public service commissioner.
2022 governor and senate elections will be interesting. The state is obviously way more moderate than it was, but Kemp became governor by being the extreme trumpist in the republican primary and now he is probably going to be facing a serious primary challenge by a more committed trumpist. :D
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:11:12 AM
It will be interesting to see how the voters of Georgia treat the current governor, lt. governor and secretary of state in the next election. Or any state with a Republican executive that Biden won.
You mean the secretary of state who could not find 11780 votes for Donald?
Without Trump and Mitch around to fuck the Republicans up, and without two incredibly corrupt and shitty candidates like Loeffler and Perdue, you have to think the Democrats will have a harder time of it in Georgia in 2022.
But I guess if the Georgia Republicans fire Kemp for being too sane and moderate anything can happen.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 02:01:11 PM
Without Trump and Mitch around to fuck the Republicans up, and without two incredibly corrupt and shitty candidates like Loeffler and Perdue, you have to think the Democrats will have a harder time of it in Georgia in 2022.
But I guess if the Georgia Republicans fire Kemp for being too sane and moderate anything can happen.
Okay, the obvious disclaimer about taking political punditry from a Canucklehead who has never been to Georgia:
I think it's entirely up to the GOP what happens in 2022. The usual winds in an off-year election blow towards the party out of power, but yeah if Kemp is successfully primaried by someone even more Trumpist then have to like the Dems chances.
On the other hand an unsuccessful primary challenge could make Kemp seem more centrist.
I have to think Raffensberger is a dead man walking (not literally). God Bless that man for his service to his country though.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 02:01:11 PM
Without Trump and Mitch around to fuck the Republicans up, and without two incredibly corrupt and shitty candidates like Loeffler and Perdue, you have to think the Democrats will have a harder time of it in Georgia in 2022.
But I guess if the Georgia Republicans fire Kemp for being too sane and moderate anything can happen.
I totally get your comment about Loeffler, but was Perdue that bad? I am not challenging you, I just honestly do not know that much about the guy.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 02:01:11 PM
Without Trump and Mitch around to fuck the Republicans up, and without two incredibly corrupt and shitty candidates like Loeffler and Perdue, you have to think the Democrats will have a harder time of it in Georgia in 2022.
But I guess if the Georgia Republicans fire Kemp for being too sane and moderate anything can happen.
Ossoff was a really shitty candidate too.
Black turnout is something like 30% of Georgia and 90+% democrat so turnout of black voters is a huge factor, and in 2022 you will *probably* have Abrams running for governor and Warnock running for reelection. Kemp has badly alienated Trump (who wants him jailed) and the left is pissed at him for theoretically stealing the 2018 election and for having the Trumpiest covid response. 2 years is a lifetime from now but I think I'd bet on the democrats right now.
Quote from: Caliga on January 06, 2021, 02:07:43 PM
I totally get your comment about Loeffler, but was Perdue that bad? I am not challenging you, I just honestly do not know that much about the guy.
Perdue was a much stronger candidate but the trading of stocks after the covid briefing was poison. If that hadn't happened, he probably would have won.
Loeffler was a terrible candidate, but the fault there is probably Kemp for appointing her (the idea being that she was a more moderate person prior to appointment, and a female, which would presumably would help Kemp as they would be running on the same ticket for reelection in 2022--which is the thinking of why he appointed her).
But she got a "mainstream" Trumpist primary challenger, and as the very wealthy wife of the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange who was born in Illinois and a current WNBA owner, she really had no way to win without going full Trumpist. She got through the primary and probably could have gotten through the general election had Trump not pushed matters with "election fraud". That she also had a stock trading scandal was 100% her fault.
Apparently you have protestors storming the Capitol now: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1346899564561891332/pu/vid/720x1280/zHkPWhGazXVJt1Tk.mp4
Funny how there seems to be nobody except Capitol police there, they only just now asked for assistance from DC metropolitan police. If this were blacks protesting for BLM, bullets would already be flying.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 06, 2021, 02:18:02 PM
Perdue was a much stronger candidate but the trading of stocks after the covid briefing was poison. If that hadn't happened, he probably would have won.
I thought it was Loeffler who got busted for doing the shady trades (or did they both get busted for that)?
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 02:40:03 PM
Apparently you have protestors storming the Capitol now: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1346899564561891332/pu/vid/720x1280/zHkPWhGazXVJt1Tk.mp4
Funny how there seems to be nobody except Capitol police there, they only just now asked for assistance from DC metropolitan police. If this were blacks protesting for BLM, bullets would already be flying.
If they were blacks the scene would look like the Cossacks descending on the Odessa steps.
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PortlyBlondBasil-max-1mb.gif)
Quote from: Caliga on January 06, 2021, 02:52:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 06, 2021, 02:18:02 PM
Perdue was a much stronger candidate but the trading of stocks after the covid briefing was poison. If that hadn't happened, he probably would have won.
I thought it was Loeffler who got busted for doing the shady trades (or did they both get busted for that)?
They both did. :lol:
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 02:54:31 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 02:40:03 PM
Apparently you have protestors storming the Capitol now: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1346899564561891332/pu/vid/720x1280/zHkPWhGazXVJt1Tk.mp4
Funny how there seems to be nobody except Capitol police there, they only just now asked for assistance from DC metropolitan police. If this were blacks protesting for BLM, bullets would already be flying.
If they were blacks the scene would look like the Cossacks descending on the Odessa steps.
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PortlyBlondBasil-max-1mb.gif)
:yes:
Jesus Christ what a mess
This is horrifying.
I don't get this. They knew the President was going to have his supporters flood the capitol for this for weeks. Why wasn't there more significant security? It makes no sense.
I hope nothing happens to my Cousin.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
I don't get this. They knew the President was going to have his supporters flood the capitol for this for weeks. Why wasn't there more significant security? It makes no sense.
It's a coup attempt. "Loyal" security forces are often strangely absent/inactive.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
I don't get this. They knew the President was going to have his supporters flood the capitol for this for weeks. Why wasn't there more significant security? It makes no sense.
I hope nothing happens to my Cousin.
According to this Washington Post journalist the DoD has denied a request by DC officials to deploy the national guard :
https://twitter.com/byaaroncdavis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1346908166030766080%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2Flive%2F2021%2Fjan%2F06%2Fgeorgia-election-latest-news-senate-ossoff-warnock-democrats-republicans-trump-biden
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
As I said before - too soon, asshole.
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
As I said before - too soon, asshole.
I do not know how to convey this but this is not too soon, it is reality.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 06, 2021, 04:05:29 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
As I said before - too soon, asshole.
Spade is a Spade.
https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2013/09/19/224183763/is-it-racist-to-call-a-spade-a-spade?t=1609967175243
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:06:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 06, 2021, 04:05:29 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
As I said before - too soon, asshole.
Spade is a Spade.
https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2013/09/19/224183763/is-it-racist-to-call-a-spade-a-spade?t=1609967175243
You don't need to argue it. If you tell me that this is a racist saying, I believe you and will refrain from using it.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 06, 2021, 04:10:52 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:06:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 06, 2021, 04:05:29 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
As I said before - too soon, asshole.
Spade is a Spade.
https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2013/09/19/224183763/is-it-racist-to-call-a-spade-a-spade?t=1609967175243
You don't need to argue it. If you tell me that this is a racist saying, I believe you and will refrain from using it.
Actually, I think that's an interesting article but yeah as it says these days pretty much a phrase one should avoid as too tainted by racism.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
I don't get this. They knew the President was going to have his supporters flood the capitol for this for weeks. Why wasn't there more significant security? It makes no sense.
I hope nothing happens to my Cousin.
The LEOs on site, some of them, are taking selfies with them. So yeah, the traitors are being enabled from on high.
Biden just urged Trump to "step up".
That'll show 'em.
Seriously, WTAF.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 06, 2021, 04:19:32 PM
Biden just urged Trump to "step up".
That'll show 'em.
Seriously, WTAF.
He tweeted a video where he said "We love you, but go home". That's some stepping.
Quote from: Liep on January 06, 2021, 04:21:07 PM
He tweeted a video where he said "We love you, but go home". That's some stepping.
Apparently, Biden *was* kept in a basement these last four years.
Quote from: Solmyr on January 06, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
This thread needs a rename. US Election Season/Coup Attempt 2020-2021?
I left it because clearly the election itself was over after about a week - we knew who the winner was.
All these other shenanigans are something, but they have nothing to do with the election.
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:14:16 PM
Actually, I think that's an interesting article but yeah as it says these days pretty much a phrase one should avoid as too tainted by racism.
Can we just clean up the tainted words and sayings instead? This is 2021, it seems so wasteful to throw out words and sayings every time someone perceives them to be tainted, we'll run out of combinations of letters at some point.
I hope it dawns on everyone that humoring Trump's crazy conspiracy theories is not harmless.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 06, 2021, 04:26:48 PM
Quote from: Liep on January 06, 2021, 04:21:07 PM
He tweeted a video where he said "We love you, but go home". That's some stepping.
Apparently, Biden *was* kept in a basement these last four years.
I hope all this kumbaya bullshit Biden keeps trotting out is just a pragmatic thing to say, and that he doesn't really believe it. We can't afford to have another Democratic president who is criminally naive about the true nature of his political opponents.
Quote from: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 04:41:26 PM
I hope all this kumbaya bullshit Biden keeps trotting out is just a pragmatic thing to say, and that he doesn't really believe it. We can't afford to have another Democratic president who is criminally naive about the true nature of his political opponents.
He was in the Senate for decades and the White House for almost a decade more. Something tells me he's not naive, no.
Quote from: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 04:41:26 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 06, 2021, 04:26:48 PM
Quote from: Liep on January 06, 2021, 04:21:07 PM
He tweeted a video where he said "We love you, but go home". That's some stepping.
Apparently, Biden *was* kept in a basement these last four years.
I hope all this kumbaya bullshit Biden keeps trotting out is just a pragmatic thing to say, and that he doesn't really believe it. We can't afford to have another Democratic president who is criminally naive about the true nature of his political opponents.
FWIW I thought Biden's speech was OK.
Quote from: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 04:39:25 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 04:14:16 PM
Actually, I think that's an interesting article but yeah as it says these days pretty much a phrase one should avoid as too tainted by racism.
Can we just clean up the tainted words and sayings instead? This is 2021, it seems so wasteful to throw out words and sayings every time someone perceives them to be tainted, we'll run out of combinations of letters at some point.
We are probably pretty far off from that.
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
He really worked his Ossoff for that victory.
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Let's hope there's still a republic with a senate in two weeks.
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Yeah. For whatever that is worth.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 05:57:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Yeah. For whatever that is worth.
Only the ability of the Dems to actually do a little something called governing.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 06:03:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 05:57:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Yeah. For whatever that is worth.
Only the ability of the Dems to actually do a little something called governing.
I know. It was a huge upset and vital win for the Democrats.
Things are pretty grim today though, otherwise.
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 06:03:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 05:57:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Yeah. For whatever that is worth.
Only the ability of the Dems to actually do a little something called governing.
Yep, they can govern now.
To pass something through the house, they only need to keep 218 of their 222 members from defecting on any bill.
In the Senate, they won't be able to pass anything subject to a filibuster. Which is basically everything not budget or nomination related. But for those items that require 50 votes, they will be able to pass them so long as they get all their members in line, including Joe Manchin (the west virginia guy).
Yeah it will be very hard to do shit.
But much easier than if they had 49 instead of 50.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 06:14:32 PM
Yeah it will be very hard to do shit.
But much easier than if they had 49 instead of 50.
The best benefit is that they can get nominations through. Stupid games a majority leader could play will be stopped.
The down side is that some people will have the delusion that democrats really do control everything and blame them for the inevitable gridlock.
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 06:09:04 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 06:03:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 05:57:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
Don't know if it was said already or not, maybe it's lost in the shuffle, but Osoff has won the other Georgia senate race.
Yeah. For whatever that is worth.
Only the ability of the Dems to actually do a little something called governing.
I know. It was a huge upset and vital win for the Democrats.
Things are pretty grim today though, otherwise.
Yeah, I was trying to give a buck up type message but doesnt translate over this medium.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 06, 2021, 06:10:23 PM
Yep, they can govern now.
To pass something through the house, they only need to keep 218 of their 222 members from defecting on any bill.
In the Senate, they won't be able to pass anything subject to a filibuster. Which is basically everything not budget or nomination related. But for those items that require 50 votes, they will be able to pass them so long as they get all their members in line, including Joe Manchin (the west virginia guy).
McConnell already set the precedent that a bare majority can dispense with the filibuster whenever convenient. Whether Manchin goes along is another question.
However, confirmation of judicial appointments is not subject to filibuster so the Senate wins will help redress the unbalanced federal judiciary.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 06, 2021, 06:33:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 06, 2021, 06:10:23 PM
Yep, they can govern now.
To pass something through the house, they only need to keep 218 of their 222 members from defecting on any bill.
In the Senate, they won't be able to pass anything subject to a filibuster. Which is basically everything not budget or nomination related. But for those items that require 50 votes, they will be able to pass them so long as they get all their members in line, including Joe Manchin (the west virginia guy).
McConnell already set the precedent that a bare majority can dispense with the filibuster whenever convenient. Whether Manchin goes along is another question.
However, confirmation of judicial appointments is not subject to filibuster so the Senate wins will help redress the unbalanced federal judiciary.
Manchin has already said he won't go along.
The Democrats won't eliminate the filibuster, they will just (as the Republicans did) reduce its scope when it in any way impedes their agenda.
The guy with a confederate flag marching through congress...wow.
Quote from: Tyr on January 07, 2021, 03:45:55 AM
The guy with a confederate flag marching through congress...wow.
Never thought I would see some Jamiroquai's Buffalo Man cosplaying as well.
Great news here.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/06/facebook-twitter-youtube-trump-video-supporters-capitol
Social media blocking trumps accounts
Quote from: grumbler on January 06, 2021, 08:18:18 PM
The Democrats won't eliminate the filibuster, they will just (as the Republicans did) reduce its scope when it in any way impedes their Joe Manchin's agenda.
?
Notice twitter nutters are insisting it was all fake and these people were actors :lol:
Quote from: Tyr on January 07, 2021, 09:57:05 AM
Notice twitter nutters are insisting it was all fake and these people were actors :lol:
Which as I saw elsewhere is weird as Trump said he loved these people but according to his supporters they are not real Trump supporters?
There you go again, thinking that these nutjobs are capable of logical thought...
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/773505316691247124/796834331212775424/image0.png)
The Usurper was also a pretty good quarterback for the Packers back in the day, and now enjoys relaxing in his Wrangler jeans.
Berserker played some decent tightend for the Pats too.
I find the thief weirdly charming because of how happy he seems as he's waving.
It's been memed to hell on British Twitter so it's like something from daytime TV show Bargiain Hunt:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErFOov0XYAAxDqc?format=jpg&name=small)
Twitter found him. He's from Florida
So, it looks like General Hux took part in the riots elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/Miquel_R/status/1346973318335721473
Maybe that means it was really a false flag, since we find out he's a mole in the third movie. :ph34r:
Quote from: celedhring on January 08, 2021, 05:15:51 AM
So, it looks like General Hux took part in the riots elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/Miquel_R/status/1346973318335721473
Maybe that means it was really a false flag, since we find out he's a mole in the third movie. :ph34r:
I think the getting a bullet for "house hugging" will become an increasingly popular stance that will transcend political boundaries. :sleep:
Quote from: Tamas on January 08, 2021, 08:01:53 AM
I think the getting a bullet for "house hugging" will become an increasingly popular stance that will transcend political boundaries. :sleep:
:lol:
(https://external-preview.redd.it/rMXr35V6rD63NVB0Ofs4ECPC3Yas3XhV8yFBsIpFSbU.jpg?auto=webp&s=4342ae8f3b166a5642404f7d0c2093fd76224cd8)
I don't agree with his virulent racism.....But I do agree with his pro-building policy.
It ended up being a military coup after all. :(
QuoteMEMORANDUM FOR THE JOINT FORCE
SUBJECT: MESSAGE TO THE JOINT FORCE
The American people have trusted the Armed Forces of the United States to protect them and our Constitution for almost 250 years. As we have done throughout our history, the U.S. military will obey lawful orders from civilian leadership, support civil authorities to protect lives and property, ensure public safety in accordance with the law, and remain fully committed to protecting and defending the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
The violent riot in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021 was a direct assault on the U.S. Congress, the Capitol building, and our Constitutional process. We mourn the deaths of the two Capitol policemen and others connected to these unprecedented events.
We witnessed actions inside the Capitol building that were inconsistent with the rule of law. The rights of freedom of speech and assembly do not give anyone the right to resort to violence, sedition and insurrection.
As Service Members, we must embody the values and ideals of the Nation. We support and defend the Constitution. Any act to disrupt the Constitutional process is not only against our traditions, values, and oath; it is against the law.
On January 20, 2021, in accordance with the Constitution, confirmed by the states and the courts, and certified by Congress, President-elect Biden will be inaugurated and will become our 46th Commander in Chief.
To our men and women deployed and at home, safeguarding our country-stay ready, keep your eyes on the horizon, and remain focused on the mission. We honor your continued service in defense of every American.
[signed]
Mark A. Milley
General, U.S. Army
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
John E. Hyten
General, U.S. Air Force
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
James C. McConville
General, U.S. Army
Chief of Staff of the Army
David H. Berger
General, U.S. Marine Corps
Commandant of the Marine Corps
Michael M. Gilday
Admiral, U.S. Navy
Chief of Naval Operations
Charles Q. Brown, Jr.
General, U.S. Air Force
Chief of Staff of the Air Force
John W. Raymond
General, U.S. Space Force
Chief of Space Operations
Daniel R. Hokanson
General, U.S. Army
Chief of the National Guard Bureau
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 03:18:38 PM
It ended up being a military coup after all. :(
That is not what it says, despite your highlighting.
Le sigh.
Quote from: saskganesh on January 13, 2021, 03:38:43 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 03:18:38 PM
It ended up being a military coup after all. :(
That is not what it says, despite your highlighting.
And then not applying a literalist interpretation of his post, you get to.....
The serious point of posting that (verses the faux extremist-patriot reaction), is that it is rather telling when the JCS feel the need to not only make a statement regarding the events last week, but to underline a pretty severe departure from the Commander-in-Chief's public messaging.
And appropriately, I think, according to their duty, only doing so after the constitutional processes had been fully, and formally, carried out.
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:06:18 PM
The serious point of posting that (verses the faux extremist-patriot reaction), is that it is rather telling when the JCS feel the need to not only make a statement regarding the events last week, but to underline a pretty severe departure from the Commander-in-Chief's public messaging.
And appropriately, I think, according to their duty, only doing so after the constitutional processes had been fully, and formally, carried out.
Yeah - same for the message from the Army Chief although there I thought there was a slightly worrying subtext of reminding soldiers of their role.
I'm not sure how appropriate it is, but it is probably necessary given everything.
I find it extraordinary that an absolutely baseless and blatant lie on election fraud, after repeated enough, could reach such a stage that the military must confirm that yeah, the actual winner did actually win the election.
I am afraid a lot of people far more dangerous than Trump have been taking notes on how to handle their own try at what Trump got already fairly far on despite being objectively terrible at it (that is, a coup)
Quote from: Tamas on January 13, 2021, 04:40:36 PM
I find it extraordinary that an absolutely baseless and blatant lie on election fraud, after repeated enough, could reach such a stage that the military must confirm that yeah, the actual winner did actually win the election.
I am afraid a lot of people far more dangerous than Trump have been taking notes on how to handle their own try at what Trump got already fairly far on despite being objectively terrible at it (that is, a coup)
Fortunately they're most all in the Treason Party, so all we have to do is just stop electing authoritarian nutters from that party!
Quote from: Tamas on January 13, 2021, 04:40:36 PM
I find it extraordinary that an absolutely baseless and blatant lie on election fraud, after repeated enough, could reach such a stage that the military must confirm that yeah, the actual winner did actually win the election.
I am afraid a lot of people far more dangerous than Trump have been taking notes on how to handle their own try at what Trump got already fairly far on despite being objectively terrible at it (that is, a coup)
Yep. It's quite amazing.
It's not even on a level of spend 350 million on the nhs rather than the eu: a bit of examination of the facts shows its based on nonsense but its believable on the surface and full of grey areas and room for debate.
Instead it's utterly baseless bollocks. I won, you didn't, nerr, is about the crux of it. And it's threatening the overthrow of the US....
It's a bit like Japan in the 1930s. Top brass seems worried that some underlings will take matters into their own hands.
FBI investigating whether woman stole laptop from Pelosi's office to sell it to Russia
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/pelosi-laptop-office-capitol-460147
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
he also talks of his experience on election night, and trying to reason with GOPtards who believe the election was stolen:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/25/among-the-insurrectionists?utm_source=pocket-newtab
Read it all, it is interesting. No summary provided, it would take me as long as reading the entire text :P
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
He should have been an anonymous source.
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
Did he violate the law?
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:48:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
Did he violate the law?
I already asked that. :unsure:
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:50:01 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:48:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
Did he violate the law?
I already asked that. :unsure:
What was the answer you got? How authoritative was the person who gave it to you?
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:54:04 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:50:01 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:48:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
Did he violate the law?
I already asked that. :unsure:
What was the answer you got? How authoritative was the person who gave it to you?
I haven't gotten an answer yet. Are you reading the same thread as the rest of us? :unsure:
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:55:07 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:54:04 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:50:01 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 05:48:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
Did he violate the law?
I already asked that. :unsure:
What was the answer you got? How authoritative was the person who gave it to you?
I haven't gotten an answer yet. Are you reading the same thread as the rest of us? :unsure:
Probably didn't violate.
Quote from: 11B4V on January 19, 2021, 06:47:14 PM
...snip...
Probably didn't violate.
Yi's just gone into cardiac arrest.
I'm not sure what law Luke Mogelson would have been breaking to get the story. It's not illegal to be the son of a mogel.
Trespassing, same as the rioters.
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 04:16:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 04:13:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 18, 2021, 04:05:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:00:36 PM
Long text about the Capitol rioters, 1st hand account from a journalist who was there, among them.
How far did he follow them?
Up 'til they enter the Senate chambers, sit on Pence's chair and read memos from Senators to Pence.
He violated the law to get the story?
If the doors are breached and you enter with the intent of reporting what you see, is that a crime?
If I'm your neighbor and I see your door wide open, I enter to check on things, am I committing a crime? :)
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2021, 09:31:13 PM
Trespassing, same as the rioters.
Define "trespassing" as it refers to this situation.
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 09:35:38 PM
If the doors are breached and you enter with the intent of reporting what you see, is that a crime?
If I'm your neighbor and I see your door wide open, I enter to check on things, am I committing a crime? :)
No, and no, according to Virginia state laws. Your mileage may differ.
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 09:59:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2021, 09:31:13 PM
Trespassing, same as the rioters.
Define "trespassing" as it refers to this situation.
I dunno. I presume not everyone who stormed the building was looting or attacking cops. So whatever they're guilty of, having a camera doesn't make you exempt.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2021, 11:07:08 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 09:59:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2021, 09:31:13 PM
Trespassing, same as the rioters.
Define "trespassing" as it refers to this situation.
I dunno. I presume not everyone who stormed the building was looting or attacking cops. So whatever they're guilty of, having a camera doesn't make you exempt.
I don't understand your point. Is motive not a factor in criminal law?
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 11:16:16 PM
I don't understand your point. Is motive not a factor in criminal law?
I can't answer whether or not this reporter "broke the law", but this I can answer.
Motive is never a factor in criminal law. As a prosecutor I never have to prove motive. What I do have to prove is intent. I have to prove what the person was trying to do (intent). What is mostly irrelevant is why the person was trying to do that thing (motive).
Now motive can sometimes come up in sentencing, but never as an element of the offence.
Quote from: Barrister on January 19, 2021, 11:29:37 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2021, 11:16:16 PM
I don't understand your point. Is motive not a factor in criminal law?
I can't answer whether or not this reporter "broke the law", but this I can answer.
Motive is never a factor in criminal law. As a prosecutor I never have to prove motive. What I do have to prove is intent. I have to prove what the person was trying to do (intent). What is mostly irrelevant is why the person was trying to do that thing (motive).
Now motive can sometimes come up in sentencing, but never as an element of the offence.
Conceded.
Mens Rea is better interpreted as "intent" than "motive."
So i restate my question as "is
Mens Rea not a factor in criminal law?" Does a reporter have the
Mens Rea when he reports a crime in progress?
Criminal intent normally refers to intent to do the acts the constitute the crime, in this case unauthorized entry. The reporter had that intent. The reporter could invoke the first amendment, however.
You guys, I'm starting to think that Trump isn't going to pull this one out.
He still has a few minutes to declare martial law.
My prediction in the end will have been wrong.
Quote from: Habbaku on January 20, 2021, 11:19:10 AM
You guys, I'm starting to think that Trump isn't going to pull this one out.
OMG DID YOU SEE THE MORSE CODE BLINKING PENCE WAS DOING QQ
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2021, 09:44:00 AM
Criminal intent normally refers to intent to do the acts the constitute the crime, in this case unauthorized entry. The reporter had that intent. The reporter could invoke the first amendment, however.
I love how Robert Moore's ITN crew coverage of the capitol invasion is now providing valuable evidence on who was there and what crimes they got up to. :bowler:
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2021, 09:44:00 AM
Criminal intent normally refers to intent to do the acts the constitute the crime, in this case unauthorized entry. The reporter had that intent. The reporter could invoke the first amendment, however.
depends. he did not have the intent to breach the capitol, his intent was to report on the protest. then things heated up, people entered the Capitol, he followed to report on what they were doing.
So. Update! My district (NY-22) still does not have an officially elected representative in the House! My home county now needs to sort through over a thousand voter registration forms that were "misplaced" that denied the filers their right to vote. Such an unbelievable shit show. American democracy in a nut shell this whole thing. :yuk:
Currently the margin in NY-22 is 12 votes and in IA-2 6 votes according to CNN.com. I wonder if either will even be able to seat their rep before it is time to campaign for the 2022 election.
I am represented by a liberal Democrat in Congress, believe it or not (Kentucky's only one) :cool:
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 10:17:31 PM
I am represented by a liberal Democrat in Congress, believe it or not (Kentucky's only one) :cool:
And I am represented by a lying, lazy, incompetent piece of dogshit in human form. At least he is not Louie Gohmert, I guess that is the nicest thing I can say about him.
Too bad.... I love my Rep (John Yarmuth). Oh, he's also Jewish. :cool:
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 10:29:01 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 10:17:31 PM
I am represented by a liberal Democrat in Congress, believe it or not (Kentucky's only one) :cool:
And I am represented by a lying, lazy, incompetent piece of dogshit in human form. At least he is not Louie Gohmert, I guess that is the nicest thing I can say about him.
Hey, me, too! Also not Louie Gohmert. :hug:
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 10:14:05 PM
Currently the margin in NY-22 is 12 votes and in IA-2 6 votes according to CNN.com. I wonder if either will even be able to seat their rep before it is time to campaign for the 2022 election.
You mean now?
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 20, 2021, 11:36:00 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 10:14:05 PM
Currently the margin in NY-22 is 12 votes and in IA-2 6 votes according to CNN.com. I wonder if either will even be able to seat their rep before it is time to campaign for the 2022 election.
You mean now?
Do you know something I don't? I was not aware either election was settled.
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 12:17:04 AM
Do you know something I don't? I was not aware either election was settled.
Last I heard MMM (R) had won the Iowa 2nd (my disctrict!!!!) and it had been certified.
I'm represented by guy who has been in office longer than I've been alive.
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 12:17:04 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 20, 2021, 11:36:00 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 10:14:05 PM
Currently the margin in NY-22 is 12 votes and in IA-2 6 votes according to CNN.com. I wonder if either will even be able to seat their rep before it is time to campaign for the 2022 election.
You mean now?
Do you know something I don't? I was not aware either election was settled.
Campaign season never begins or ends. :sleep:
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 12:25:04 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 12:17:04 AM
Do you know something I don't? I was not aware either election was settled.
Last I heard MMM (R) had won the Iowa 2nd (my disctrict!!!!) and it had been certified.
I see. Quite the tight election. Just one to go then.
I wonder when "election week 2020" will end ... :lol:
Quote from: Malthus on January 21, 2021, 04:47:30 PM
I wonder when "election week 2020" will end ... :lol:
they have until Nov 2022 to fix it :P