US Election Week 2020

[alfred russel]

Yeah - I suppose part of it is if Latinos stay "racialised" or if they become more like, say, Italian-Americans. It'll be really interesting to see breakdowns by part of Latin America, generation etc.

It is not going to stop any articles being written or theorizing, because what else is there to do? But if we can't trust polling, and covid is making exit polls even more unreliable in 2020, the breakdowns may be bullshit.

[Sheilbh]

It is not going to stop any articles being written or theorizing, because what else is there to do? But if we can't trust polling, and covid is making exit polls even more unreliable in 2020, the breakdowns may be bullshit.

Yeah the industrial-take complex is a hell of a thing.

I imagine we'll get a more complete analysis, like Pew did in 2016, in a few months that might change a lot of the initial takes. It's a bit similar to this election in general - the experience on Tuesday night may end up mattering more than facts once all the votes are counted. And once that perception takes hold, it's going to be tough to shift.

[OttoVonBismarck]

In a two party system semi-permanent is kinda silly, but it will make it almost impossible for a white grievance party that can't win basically 100% of the white vote, to be viable in a country that is going to be less than 50% white.

It will mean the GOP eventually has to change some positions.

While I agree we probably need higher quality election analytics to come out before making any bold proclamations, I think that this election suggests things are largely going the way Democrats would want. But the hope that they were going to move that way by a giant leap, not so much. It's going to be awhile, probably another 10 years.

If the Dems found a way to at least reduce the flames on the culture war stuff and find a way to even message a little bit to rural voters, I think you'd put the GOP in a worse place. I don't really know how you do that though, it's extremely non-trivial I'd say. Under Biden the Dems should focus on policy promises that really resonate with the working class. I think under Obama there was a belief "if we can't get it past Mitch, we shouldn't dwell on it much." But that's silly, there are several politicians that have built entire political movements on policies they can't implement or get passed in the legislature. The rhetoric actually matters for building a good foundation, and I think a lot of Democrats historically haven't felt the need to bother. Obama really gave up on politicking when he wasn't running, a big critique I'd have of him (but I was pretty anti-Obama when he was in office so it didn't bother me a ton at the time.) Obama thought he was above getting in the mud really pushing national narratives on individual pieces of legislation.

I think you cede a lot of the battlefield to the GOP when you do that. The Obama era GOP kept their base focused with all kinds of policy promises they knew they couldn't implement, Dems need to just get in that game to some degree.

That's not the only thing they need to do, but it's one of the easiest they can do since they control their own behavior.

[FunkMonk]

Very Smart People are determining that NV is basically over. The math just won't work out for Donald.

I suspect the Fox News and AP guys won't actually call it yet though. 

[Josquius]

On the two party system thing I have to ask what is so special about Maine that allowed them to setup a democratic voting system there whilst elsewhere doesn't?
AV, split electoral vote.... Sounds not just better than elswhere but outright good.

[Valmy]

Very Smart People are determining that NV is basically over. The math just won't work out for Donald.

I suspect the Fox News and AP guys won't actually call it yet though. 

As I said under normal conditions most of these states would already be called and we would all just be looking at Arizona and Georgia.

People have been extremely cautious about calling anything, except for Arizona where Fox and the AP were riverboat gamblers.

[Valmy]

On the two party system thing I have to ask what is so special about Maine that allowed them to setup a democratic voting system there whilst elsewhere doesn't?
AV, split electoral vote.... Sounds not just better than elswhere but outright good.

Nothing is special about Maine at all. The states run their own elections. Everybody could have that if they wanted to.

Inertia and tradition are powerful in most states and nothing tends to change until something goes wrong sufficiently enough to embarrass the state in question. Like look at how smooth and well managed the Florida election was? Nothing so archaic as voting chads there anymore.

[celedhring]

I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in.   

[katmai]

Sounds like Nevada won't be called till tomorrow at earliest

[merithyn]

That scraper website pretty much has Biden winning Georgia, or am I missing something?

With 45k votes left to count - and the current spate of votes in the 73%+ rate for Biden - it looks really good for him. I mean, there will be a recount, but still.

[katmai]

I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in.   

Pennsylvania won't finish counting till tomorrow 

[Valmy]

I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in.   

You should feel better this evening...evening in Pennsylvania that is.

[Josquius]

Arizona is fascinating. The % coming in for trump is ever decreasing but he is still over 50% and slowly making ground.

And ja. Way too many sudden drops in the expected percentage with no voters elsewhere

[Sheilbh]

I'm really, really, sweating PA. Lots of analysts seem confident Biden is flipping it, but I need to see those votes actually get in.   

On that scraper site Trump's lead has gone from about 350k to 115k in the last day - and remember that for at least part of that the count in Philly was reportedly stopped for the legal challenge.

[Valmy]

Arizona is fascinating. The % coming in for trump is ever decreasing but he is still over 50% and slowly making ground.

And ja. Way too many sudden drops in the expected percentage with no voters elsewhere

Arizona hasn't announced any new voter totals in almost 12 hours

And there are almost a half million left to count

What are you talking about?