US Election Week 2020

[OttoVonBismarck]

Thinking about Arizona, it's interesting several of the outfits to call it haven't wavered. With Fox News, which actually is one of the better decision desks at making calls I think it's possible they have done some sort of analysis they aren't sharing and actually still believe Biden has won. But there's also "internet-grade" rumors that due to the longstanding Murdoch v Trump feud, someone may have put a thumb on the finger to see AZ called for Biden early. It sitting there blue on the Fox News live map for 2 days has served as an effective blocker at Trump's overall information game since it keeps Biden so close to 270.

I still think Biden can come out ahead in Arizona fwiw, based on the sketchy details we're hearing there are two significant batches left in AZ that should be worse for Trump than the last few batches have been:
-Pima County
-Early mail in ballots -- apparently one of the Maricopa batches is not late arriving/election day absentee drop off ballots, but normal mail ballots that just hadn't been processed yet. The normal mail ballots in AZ have been overwhelmingly Blue. We don't know the size of this batch

But what that does mean is we should expect some sort of data dump at some point from AZ that will be worse for Trump, how much worse, I don't know. But once that happens it means Trump has to overperform even more for the remainder ballots to close the gap.

[Sheilbh]

Scoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell

So, has the Senate at other points busted the figurative balls of incoming Presidents on who they can nominate for Cabinet positions? 

At that point, what stops them from demanding only GOP firebrands?

Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.

So Trump couldn't get approval for his nominees so he appointed loads of Interim and Acting Secretaries etc - it feels like Biden won't be able to get his, being Biden I expect he'll try to work with McConnell. But it basically feels like unless you have the Senate you won't be able to properly appoint people to run the various bits of the American government.

[alfred russel]

I just bet a bit over $2k (the max the site allows) on predictit that Biden would win Michigan and Wisconsin--the implied chances Trump has are 5-7%.

I was reading the comments to try to figure out wtf gives Trump such odds when the votes are basically over and he is way behind. It seems wild conspiracy theories--"There were more votes than registered voters in Wisconsin--Trump's lawyers are going to be all over this!"

I don't know what to say. Hopefully this doesn't end up being very close.

[FunkMonk]

Senatorial control is paramount in a government run by Mitch McConnell.

Assuming Biden pulls this out, the Georgia Senate runoff(s) will be the most important election(s) since the the one that occured two days ago.

[Caliga]

Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.

FWIW, McConnell recently said he wants to pass more COVID stimulus, but couldn't because the Democrats didn't want to so close to the election (i.e. they were not cooperating as a political ploy).

[Sheilbh]

Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.

FWIW, McConnell recently said he wants to pass more COVID stimulus, but couldn't because the Democrats didn't want to so close to the election (i.e. they were not cooperating as a political ploy).

I think his willingness to do covid stimulus and the type he'll support is probably linked to who's in the White House.

And he did say that, but I'm not entirely convinced that actually means it's true. The White House and Pelosi were broadly agreed on the type of figure for a deal, McConnell only wanted something a lot lower and didn't want a vote on it that could divide the caucus before an election (and have Senators voting for a Pelosi passed House bill):
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-elections-house-elections-de0d5d7e76c960802e9ab541c302277b

[Legbiter]

I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.

This election outcome and aftermath is a disaster. Pretty much the worst case scenario.

[alfred russel]

Two thoughts on this - I think we're in for at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as the most important man in America (and I feel like the chance of real covid stimulus or support for states is very low now). Also this could be another step on the general degrading of norms for American government works.

So Trump couldn't get approval for his nominees so he appointed loads of Interim and Acting Secretaries etc - it feels like Biden won't be able to get his, being Biden I expect he'll try to work with McConnell. But it basically feels like unless you have the Senate you won't be able to properly appoint people to run the various bits of the American government.

The Senate map is absolutely abysmal for the Republicans in 2022. They basically cleaned out the Democrats in 2016 (the trump wave) and took almost every purple seat. The point being: if the republicans escape with 52 senate seats (probably their best case scenario right now), they will have a very tough time defending it if they get more unpopular.

But the bigger picture is that I give McConnell a ton of leeway right now to talk super tough and unreasonably. Trump almost certainly has lost. The republican base is prone to believe that Trump is being cheated and this election is being stolen. Trump is prone to encourage that. McConnell may very well need to put some pressure to accept the election results, and the knock on the non-Trump GOP from the right has always been that they cave too easily. Acting like an insane motherfucker on issues not at hand may be good politics for the issue of this moment.

[Tamas]

I put this way beyond Trump's abilities but I am now guessing some of the more sinister advisors around him assumed that the pandemic bruhaha meant it would be mainly Democrat voters using mail-in ballots and it could play out the way it has, and talked up the cheating BS with Trump to make sure the seed gets planted among the fanbase.

[Caliga]

And he did say that, but I'm not entirely convinced that actually means it's true.

Agree, hence why I prefaced my comment with FWIW 

[mongers]

So any chance of you guys getting these vote counts over and dusted, today, possibly by 6pm EST ??

[Caliga]

So any chance of you guys getting these vote counts over and dusted, today, possibly by 6pm EST ??

I'll see what we can do for you, mongers.

[Sheilbh]

The Senate map is absolutely abysmal for the Republicans in 2022. They basically cleaned out the Democrats in 2016 (the trump wave) and took almost every purple seat. The point being: if the republicans escape with 52 senate seats (probably their best case scenario right now), they will have a very tough time defending it if they get more unpopular.

I get the map is tough, but it'll be mid-terms and chance are Biden will be leading a country (in a world) that is recovering from covid and it's economic impact. And Republicans will have pivoted to deep concern about the astronomical level of debt the US now has and the deficit - it's certainly what I'd do if I was in their shoes. I feel like Republicans or any other opposition party doesn't necessarily need to be that popular to do well in that context.

And that's one thing I wonder if we need to re-evaluate, after the dust has settled. Was 2018 the strong blue wave disapproval of Trump that we thought it was, or was it just a typical mid-term result when the governing party's big attraction isn't at the top of the ticket?

But the bigger picture is that I give McConnell a ton of leeway right now to talk super tough and unreasonably. Trump almost certainly has lost. The republican base is prone to believe that Trump is being cheated and this election is being stolen. Trump is prone to encourage that. McConnell may very well need to put some pressure to accept the election results, and the knock on the non-Trump GOP from the right has always been that they cave too easily. Acting like an insane motherfucker on issues not at hand may be good politics for the issue of this moment.

But what do you think it's for? What's McConnell's goal there?

As I say I think McConnell's in the best position possible right now - Trump's lost, they've got 6-3 on the Supreme Court and they will probably keep the Senate (they need to go all in on the Georgia races). My suspicion is they'll talk about just counting the votes and not get taken down the rabbit hole with Trump and his supporters (and I think the SC would do the same) because they've kept the Senate. If the GOP lost the White House and the Senate then I think we'd see them possibly embracing a lot more of a narrative around fraud and it being stolen from them.

Of course one thing I could see happening - especially if the Trumps do decide they want to make a run in 2024 - is help target RINOs who weren't loyal enough to the President in 2022. Which could change things in a big way.

[OttoVonBismarck]

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.

[Razgovory]

I'm imagining Donald Trump sitting in the White House watching his margin in PA decrease by the hour. He must be fuming.

This election outcome and aftermath is a disaster. Pretty much the worst case scenario.

Without Trump, who will protect us from the blue-hairs?