US Election Week 2020

[alfred russel]

what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?

We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. 

Then you should probably let that Arizona thing go.  And tell her you're sorry.  Especially if you turn out to be right.

shut up spicy, I'm trying to win a bet.

She isn't going to dump me because of Arizona.

She might dump me when she finds out I bet $20k on this election.  (she voted for Biden but was convinced that Trump would win)

[Sheilbh]

Not really. 

I mean, the betting odds have Biden 79% likely to win Arizona. If those odds are at all reflective of what is going on, it is ridiculous to have the state "called".

In Florida in 2000, the networks first called it for Gore, and then called it for Bush, and then pulled it back. Anyone saying, "well we were wrong about the call on Gore but got it right the second time because Bush won (arguably)" is not right. They aren't supposed to be predicting who will win, but telling you, "this one is in the bag, you can ignore it from now on because the losing candidate has no reasonable path to victory".

Yeah - but this is the article I mentioned, Fox have taken an approach they say is different than the other networks (because the mail-in voting). We are not all looking at the same thing - even among the networks:
https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-decision-desk-director-election-night-calling-races-2020-10?r=US&IR=T

It could be that, based on what they're looking at and (presumably how that's performed in other states), that they have valid reasons for being confident and the new information they've received isn't changing anything. I don't know if that's the case and it could be vanity or pride etc. But I don't think it's necessarily right that they should just herd with the other broadcasters when they may have good reasons for sticking by the call.

As I say they've had plenty of reasons and chances to climb-down on this and haven't. My own view is that it's probably more likely they're doing that because they're confident than proud but it could be either, or some other reason. It's not clear that they definitely should pull it.

Edit: And, incidentally, AP use the same system Fox do - so those two are looking at the same thing and not pulling their calls.

And congrats!

[katmai]

Oh I wasn't saying she's gonna dump you over Arizona, I was  saying she was dumping you because you're insufferable prick. 

[crazy canuck]

Anyone else notice AF didn't actually answer Katmai's question?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Pennsylvania Secretary of State says she believes enough votes will be counted that news agencies will be able to project a winner today. Which, at the glacial rate of 2-3000 votes every half hour or so, I don't see how that is true. They need to drop some 30-40k batches like they were doing earlier in the morning.

[OttoVonBismarck]

GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.

[katmai]

Updates are trickling in from mail in ballots statewide, not just the cities. 

[katmai]

GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.

[Eddie Teach]

Don't let them draw you in on a wager about how long your relationship lasts that could itself be a catalyst for a breakup.

[Valmy]

Pennsylvania Secretary of State says she believes enough votes will be counted that news agencies will be able to project a winner today. Which, at the glacial rate of 2-3000 votes every half hour or so, I don't see how that is true. They need to drop some 30-40k batches like they were doing earlier in the morning.

Well they just dropped 13,700 a minute ago so maybe we are picking up the pace.

Under 100,000 margin. We are on our way in Pennsylvania.

[Valmy]

Looking at the feed site, one question pops out at me:  who the fuck thought it was helpful to display time stamps as "one day ago"?  Seriously, this shit is all over the Internet, and so often destroys useful information.  What, is it not obvious how long ago 10 pm on November 4 was?  If you need a precise answer, I'm sure you possess the ability to figure it out.

Oh yeah this shit pisses me off.

On some sites it is always days. Some will provide some useful data stamp like '814 days ago' so then you have to rush back and calculate what day that was.

Youtube likes years and there will be no rounding and no decimals and it will not change until it actually hits the anniversary date. So a video posted on November 6, 2017 will say 'posted two years ago' because 2 years and 2.99 years is the same amount of time to Youtube. You do get the actual date when you click on the video but damn that gets confusing when just looking through a list to find a video posted around a certain time.

[Razgovory]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

uh. Wut?

I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.

[alfred russel]

GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.

OvB--in general I've been telling you this about Georgia for a long time, and in this specific case this AM I was saying the statements from major county didn't match the state data.

We talked about this regarding the problems regarding voting in the state. Georgia basically delegates all the voting process stuff to local officials and there are 159 counties (because of a state rule that no county seat can be more than a day's ride from the furthest part of the county, we have lot of counties). The state role is to basically collect vote information. So you have a bunch of local officials at various levels of incompetence, and in the case of the metro Atlanta area with a dysfunctional relationship with the state (because they are all democrats while the state officials are all republican).

[katmai]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

uh. Wut?

I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.

Oh, sadly yes, but will still have a majority

[alfred russel]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

uh. Wut?

I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.

Democrats had 232 seats. Odds seem to be that they will lose 8ish. They need 218 for a majority.

They will keep a majority but is going to be an uncomfortable one.