US Election Week 2020

[derspiess]

So it looks like we're headed for a runoff circus in Georgia to determine the Senate.  Let's see how much money gets dumped in by both parties.

[Barrister]

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.

I don't understand this.  Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?

It's not saying any particular result.  But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in.  So incredibly tight.

But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).

An interesting little tool.

[derspiess]

Why drag Tim into this, Beeb?

[alfred russel]

The problem with not allowing the ballots after election day is that it's unfair and not legitimate to throw out valid votes because of failure of post office.  I don't see why we can't have the mail-in deadline be a week before the election, though.  You have at least one week to check and see whether your ballot made it in, and you have remedies in case it didn't come in.

If you define a valid vote as one that arrives by election day, then you aren't throwing out valid votes. 

What is the difference between sending out ballots three weeks before the election and telling people to get them back by election day (either by mail, dropping them off at the voting location, or deposited in a drop box), and your system of telling them to have them mailed a week before the election?

[DGuller]

The problem with not allowing the ballots after election day is that it's unfair and not legitimate to throw out valid votes because of failure of post office.  I don't see why we can't have the mail-in deadline be a week before the election, though.  You have at least one week to check and see whether your ballot made it in, and you have remedies in case it didn't come in.

If you define a valid vote as one that arrives by election day, then you aren't throwing out valid votes. 

What is the difference between sending out ballots three weeks before the election and telling people to get them back by election day (either by mail, dropping them off at the voting location, or deposited in a drop box), and your system of telling them to have them mailed a week before the election?

I'll get back to you on that one.

[The Minsky Moment]

Check this twitter feed out of Maria Bartiromo. She is a Fox Business host and previously a long time CNBC host. She is what I guess passes for right leaning but not in the talk show host realm of crazy:

https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo

Lots of hints of Trump losing because of voter fraud.

I imagine in the true conservative echo chamber / talk show universe it is dramatically worse.

I don't know that most Republican voters are going to accept Trump losing as something other than a fraud. Trump certainly won't lead them there. I expect some doozies in Syt's family thread.

Bartiromo used to pretty straight but recently got Rudy Disease and has been spouting nutty Trumpy stuff for a while now.

[katmai]

Check this twitter feed out of Maria Bartiromo. She is a Fox Business host and previously a long time CNBC host. She is what I guess passes for right leaning but not in the talk show host realm of crazy:

https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo

Lots of hints of Trump losing because of voter fraud.

I imagine in the true conservative echo chamber / talk show universe it is dramatically worse.

I don't know that most Republican voters are going to accept Trump losing as something other than a fraud. Trump certainly won't lead them there. I expect some doozies in Syt's family thread.

Bartiromo used to pretty straight but recently got Rudy Disease and has been spouting nutty Trumpy stuff for a while now.

Minsky beat me to this, but yeah she nuttier than squirrel shit these days. ( but then again so is most of the GOP)

[Razgovory]

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.

I don't understand this.  Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?

It's not saying any particular result.  But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in.  So incredibly tight.

But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).

An interesting little tool.

What are "Blocks"?  Why do block trends and hurdles keep changing?

[Razgovory]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

[Valmy]

Blocks of votes reporting.

Each result changes the result the candidate needs to win based on the projected remaining votes.

[Barrister]

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

This scraper is live sraping every voting block that comes in and reporting the results.

I don't understand this.  Are they saying that Trump will win in Arizona?

It's not saying any particular result.  But it is saying that in Arizona Trump needs 57.5% of the remaining vote and Trump is averaging 58.7% of the votes that are coming in.  So incredibly tight.

But it's also showing similar trends in Biden's favour in Pennsylvania (Biden needs 60%, is getting 80%) and Georgia (Biden needs 64%, is getting 73%).

An interesting little tool.

What are "Blocks"?  Why do block trends and hurdles keep changing?

Each block is each batch of new votes that were added to the total.  Trends and hurdles change as more votes are added.

[Razgovory]

Oh, okay.  Thanks.  I wish I understood statistics.

[alfred russel]

So long as it doesn't change the election outcome, i want Arizona to go to Trump.

My girlfriend has for days been refusing to discuss the possibility of Arizona being up in the air, because it has been "called". She is dismissive as though I'm a madman for thinking the AP experts would be wrong, or that Fox would do something unjustified that was pro democrat.

Arizona would force her to recognize my genius, just as covid-19 will force you guys once it becomes clear how awesome my takes were.

[The Minsky Moment]

I've read the Michigan complaint.  Comments:

1) it is not the finest legal filing I've ever read, but its not grade school scribbling either.
2) There is a glaring absence of any concrete facts being alleged
3) Counsel is a small firm specializing in 5th amendment property cases. But the lead counsel was an elections law counsel for GWB.  So far from an elections law A team, but perhaps a C team with arguments to be a B team.
4) The complaint is that GOP observers were not present when certain absentee ballots were being counted. However, no instance or evidence of this happening is supplied.
5) The complaint also says that Michigan failed to provide video surveillance of drop boxes which it claims is required under Michigan law.

The real head scratcher is assuming this is all true what is the remedy? The lawsuit asks that counting of absentee ballots "stop" and that drop box ballots be segregated.  My understanding is that the count is done and the ballots can't be unscrambled now.

Tellingly, the plaintiff has not asked for a TRO (temporary order) that would be needed assuming the relief they sought was even possible.  Instead they have asked for a declaratory judgment - basically a declaration from the court that Michigan didn't follow the law.  However, that really doesn't do anything to change the results.

Seems to me the best possible outcome for Trump legally here would be an order for a statewide recount with GOP observers present but that obviously won't help Trump.

The other possibility is that this is a purely political ploy and the intent is to convince the Michigan legislature to toss the whole count.  I don't see that happening either.

Motion for emergency relief denied.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1324402059559477248

[The Minsky Moment]

Awesome Michigan accent from Heather Meingast (asst AG).