US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore.  If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump. 

It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves.  They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it.  They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons.  The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.

Maybe. I wonder if part of it is just how do you poll people who don't trust any institutions? They think the media's fake news (as are polls) etc etc. It's a bit like a really trivial version of the issue census-takers have had. I swear there was someone here with that experience.

[Valmy]

Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.

Thank God there's at least one silver lining to this whole mess.

Not for prosecutors though

[Valmy]

I wonder if the reason polls got it so wrong this year was because of the shy Trump voters that were assumed to not exist anymore.  If you think about it, you've got more to be shy about in 2020 than in 2016 if you're voting for Trump. 

It may also be that Trump voters are not even shy with others, but rather themselves.  They don't want to say out loud that they're going to vote for that man, because they are ashamed of it.  They're just going to quietly vote for him, because reasons.  The deplorables in the trucks aren't ashamed of it, but maybe a Republican doctor is.

Maybe. I wonder if part of it is just how do you poll people who don't trust any institutions? They think the media's fake news (as are polls) etc etc. It's a bit like a really trivial version of the issue census-takers have had. I swear there was someone here with that experience.

Benedict Arnold.

[Razgovory]

Man, I don't have it together at the best of times.  This is more than I can stand.  I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.

Panda Express? 

Nah, local joint.  They have a buffet and I just fill up a box and pay by the pound.

[DGuller]

The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called.  I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.

[The Minsky Moment]

Since everybody was predicting this for months, a close election with long legal challenges, is it too much to hope that Joe Biden and company are prepared for it? 

Lots of lawyers are going to be making big billable hours off this thing.

A lot of those hours are volunteered.

[DGuller]

I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted.  Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere?  I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.

[Valmy]

The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called.  I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.

Looking at the County Map I don't know if it really set up well for the President to have it swing back as most of the outstanding votes seem to be in counties that are currently democratic, but then I don't know the source of the outstanding votes. You might be right.

Edit: Obviously if there is some kind of systemic error in there that might change things.

[DGuller]

I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted.  Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere?  I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.

From Googling, it sounds like bullshit, at least the part with the machines not picking it up.  Hopefully that explains the PredictIt movement.  Please, please, let it explain it.

[Josquius]

Man, I don't have it together at the best of times.  This is more than I can stand.  I'm going to eat cheap Chinese food.

Panda Express? 

Nah, local joint.  They have a buffet and I just fill up a box and pay by the pound.

How does that work in the age of corona?

[The Minsky Moment]

The way Arizona is going, it definitely shouldn't have been called.  I sure as hell hope it's going to go Biden eventually, but if the state you called trades at 79 cents, you probably fucked up big time.

It looks pretty good - most of the the counties where Trump is leading are 90-98% in except for Cochise and Greenlee which are teensy tiny - Trump could win every vote out there and still not make a dent.

The biggest block of votes left to be counted are 260K early votes in Maricopa, probably not going to give Trump a ton of help.  That is more than half of the total 450K outstanding state wide.

Unless I'm missing something I'd buy at 79

[chipwich]

What do Pelosi and Schumer have to do with national election results?

Who else is responsible for a collective failure in the House and Senate?

What are you blathering about? It's dozens of different elections, the majority and minority leaders don't affect that.

dude, they are responsible for recruitment and strategy. they also position their incumbents for reelection.

No they aren't no they don't.

[Syt]

It's been ages since I've been to a Chinese buffet. There used to be an amazing one in the little mall near the Happel Stadium where we sometimes went for lunch at my old job.

[Sheilbh]

I read that Maricopa County went for Biden so much because the machines didn't read Sharpie marked ballots, so now they're recounted.  Is this just bullshit, or has this been confirmed somewhere?  I hope it's just a prank that PredictIt traders are buying.

From Googling, it sounds like bullshit, at least the part with the machines not picking it up.  Hopefully that explains the PredictIt movement.  Please, please, let it explain it.

Yeah - I'm only seeing that from right-wing celebs who are saying that not only did sharpies not get picked up but that people were handing them out in Republican precincts. This is what it's going to be like I think for the next few weeks

NYT hasn't called Arizona and Biden isn't listing it in his states the campain expects to win. The Secretary of State was interviewed here which may be helpful
https://twitter.com/KTAR923/status/1324025669286653954?s=20

Edit: And key to this is there are a lot of votes to be counted - they should be counted today. Smaller counties will provide their updates as they complete their counts which will happen throughout the day. Maricopa County is intending to provide an update at the end of the day. So the trends may go one way through the day but a lot really depends on that end of the day update.

[Sheilbh]

It's been ages since I've been to a Chinese buffet. There used to be an amazing one in the little mall near the Happel Stadium where we sometimes went for lunch at my old job.

I feel like buffet food has been hit particularly hard by concerns about public health/pandemics