US Election Week 2020

[Solmyr]

Can Biden still win Alaska?

[Eddie Teach]

The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.

I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.

There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.

Actually, Gore drew first blood, getting calls before they'd even closed the polls in the panhandle. Then they retracted and Bush ended up ahead once the initial count was done.

[Admiral Yi]

Someone must have already mentioned it, but it all comes to Nevada it looks like.  And Trump needs a clean sweep of NV, GA, NC, and PA.

woops, and AK.

[FunkMonk]

Nevada slow with their count. They should be good with numbers. Tsk tsk.

[viper37]

From Vanity Fair:

According to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood

"According to a source"...

The thing I don't get is why this matters.

Trump.

[Admiral Yi]

Nevada slow with their count. They should be good with numbers. Tsk tsk.

Only when they're being tipped.

[alfred russel]

Someone must have already mentioned it, but it all comes to Nevada it looks like.  And Trump needs a clean sweep of NV, GA, NC, and PA.

woops, and AK.

He doesn't necessarily.

Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.

At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.

[alfred russel]

Predictit odds right now:

AK: Trump 98%
NC: Trump 90%

GA: Biden 64%
AZ: Biden 82%
NV: Biden 89%

PA: Biden 80%

[Admiral Yi]

He doesn't necessarily.

Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.

At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.

OK, I'm looking at a map (Google's) that has Arizona called.

[Valmy]

Georgia is getting super close.

[Monoriu]

Something is wrong with the way the polls are done.  This is the second time in a row that Trump has performed substantially better than expectations.  There is a bug in the models. 

[Grey Fox]

He doesn't necessarily.

Assuming he gets NC and AK, he needs PA plus two of three: NV, GA, Arizona.

At this point he is close to drawing dead. Based on vote shift, I think he is a huge underdog in PA, which kills everything. He might get GA, probably won't get AZ or NV.

OK, I'm looking at a map (Google's) that has Arizona called.

AP & Fox have called Arizona for Biden. Everyone else is being a contrarian. Especially AR.

[Razgovory]

Georgia is getting super close.

Is it?  It still looks like 1% behind with 95% of the vote counted.

[Valmy]

Predictit odds right now:

AK: Trump 98%
NC: Trump 90%

GA: Biden 64%
AZ: Biden 82%
NV: Biden 89%

PA: Biden 80%

I like those odds

[Razgovory]

What is the likely hood of Biden winning PA and GA?