US Election Week 2020

[garbon]

Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. 

My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.

[Tamas]

Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. 

My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.

Whenever I briefly awakened during the night I looked at results which didn't help my sleeping pattern.  I am thinking a lunchtime powernap is in order.

[celedhring]

Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. 

My sleeping pill saved me so I can at least ape functionality at work today.

Whenever I briefly awakened during the night I looked at results which didn't help my sleeping pattern.  I am thinking a lunchtime powernap is in order.

I know I'm Spanish, but for some reason I've never been able to master the art of the nap. It's really hard for me to catch sleep during the day, no matter how tired I feel, and when I'm able to nap it only manages to make me feel more sleepy for the rest of the afternoon.

[Solmyr]

Can Biden still lose Nevada?

[The Larch]

It seems I could have gone to sleep much earlier last night.  Besides the Arizona flip nothing really groundbreaking happened, right? So now we'll have to wait until the mail-in voting results start dripping by. Any idea when there'll be news about them?

There's a handy table about the states left to be called at the Guardian:


State          Votes left to count (est.)   Current margin   Current leader
                        %   votes   
Wisconsin           5%   169,000                   7,172             Biden
Georgia           6%   301,000                   102,823             Trump
North Carolina   6%   348,000                    76,712             Trump
Michigan           13%   699,000                    66,387             Trump
Nevada           33%   589,000                    7,647              Biden
Pennsylvania   36%   2,992,000                    675,012              Trump
Alaska           57%   207,000                    46,553              Trump

[Threviel]

I did some calculations trying to predict Michigan. The data points are somewhere within the percent counted and I took them before and after lunch.

At 80% counted Trump had 2331747 votes and a 81% 2342005, a difference of 10528 votes.
At 80% counted Biden had 2134557 votes and a 81% 2144394, a difference of 9837 votes.

To win Biden needs to go about 10000 plus votes for every percent remaining. Good luck with that.

[Threviel]

A thought is that the percent counted probably indicates the percentage of districts having reported in and that the large cities should be last and therefore disproportionally many votes are remaining. If so we might expect Biden closing in quickly assuming that he gets more urban than rural votes.

[Threviel]

Looking closer most of Michigan seems counted, the bog remaining areas seems to be in Wayne county, where Biden leads with 2:1 in votes. 100 000 votes of Trumps lead will probably be caught up there. Hard to see where another 100k votes are going to come from, some red areas hasn't been reported in completely either. Probably quite even in the rest of the state.

[Threviel]

Doing the same with NC and GA indicates that NC might be difficult for Biden, but in Georgia most rural areas seems counted with Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta and Columbus remaining with about 80-90% counted. There might be enough votes to tip the scales there, DeKalb county alone might be 50k democratic votes ir current trend continues.

[Sheilbh]

Looking closer most of Michigan seems counted, the bog remaining areas seems to be in Wayne county, where Biden leads with 2:1 in votes. 100 000 votes of Trumps lead will probably be caught up there. Hard to see where another 100k votes are going to come from, some red areas hasn't been reported in completely either. Probably quite even in the rest of the state.

Yeah - so an hour ago there was a 200,000 vote difference; 2.5 hours ago Trump had 52% of the vote to Biden's 46%. That's now down to about 70,000 and 50%/48%. According to the Nates, the remaining votes are mail-in ballots (which are overwhelmingly Democrat) from Democrat counties. So while it might not be enough for Biden to win, the outstanding votes are likely going his way.

[Sheilbh]

Doing the same with NC and GA indicates that NC might be difficult for Biden, but in Georgia most rural areas seems counted with Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta and Columbus remaining with about 80-90% counted. There might be enough votes to tip the scales there, DeKalb county alone might be 50k democratic votes ir current trend continues.

I find this (now frozen) quite helpful on Georgia:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Ignore the doom-needles and scroll down to the maps, because it looks to me like there's basically not many areas where they'd expect/estimate Republican votes to come v a lot for the Democrats.

[Threviel]

In Pennsylvania Biden needs about 600k votes. The rural areas have in large reported, but expect another 100k advantage for Trump from them, so Biden needs about 700k advantage from the cities.

Philadelphia: 250'
Montgomery: 20'
Delaware: 12'
Allegheny 12ish'


Well. Fuck.

[alfred russel]

It sort of seems that short of anything crazy happening, Trump is going to need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

I don't know much about the first two, but in Georgia the outstanding votes are from Fulton and DeKalb counties - the two main metro Atlanta counties. There are apparently at least 260k votes that are uncounted. Trumps lead is just over 102k.

In case you are questioning whether that is possible, in the vote already counted, Biden is winning 83% to 16% in DeKalb and 72% to 27% in Fulton.

In summary: if there really are 260k votes that are uncounted, Biden may be a favorite to win Georgia.

[Tamas]

Let's hope.


Looking forward to the "but I was winning before they counted all the votes, this is cheating!" complaints from the most powerful man on the planet.

[alfred russel]

It actually may not even be very close. I just check predictit and Biden is now the betting favorite in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If that holds, he will win in the electoral college 306-232.