US Election Week 2020

[Caliga]

I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do.  I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.

Yeah, honestly, I think he's done.  It looks like he has no idea what he's talking about at this point.

[Maladict]

I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do.  I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.

He did say It's A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter in the final projection.
But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.

[Sheilbh]

I do think Nate Silver has some explaining to do.  I don't think his 10% thing is going to bail him out.

I mean didn't Nate kind of get it right.

As I say I'm not personally a massive fan during the campaign but think he's useful on election night. But we were basically dealing with, by the looks of it, a large polling failure (especially at the state level - again - where some of the differences are enormous) and his model was probably about right. He correctly got that Biden's odds were pretty good even in the event of a big a polling failure. To me that seems like a vindication of the model rather than the polls - not the 10% thing.

[Sheilbh]

But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.

But weren't those polling errors? I get that he weights them and probably needs to examine those weightings, but surely he's not responsible for the underlying polls being so wrong.

[DGuller]

Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia.  Stop, stop, enough.

[The Brain]

Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?

[derspiess]

What the hell is with jorgensen voters. So many

[Caliga]

Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?

Perhaps that was Trump's plan all along.

[DGuller]

Maybe the polling was right but the voting was wrong?

Has anyone been reporting things like spoiled ballot rate?

[FunkMonk]

Polling is finished so Nate and the cottage industry based around polling are finished. Private polling by campaigns will still  exist but public polling is gone.

[alfred russel]

Polling is finished so Nate and the cottage industry based around polling are finished. Private polling by campaigns will still  exist but public polling is gone.

In a just world, but in reality people want to know what is going to happen so there will be a market for polling. Just as there is for astrology.

[Caliga]

Yeah.  Polling isn't finished, but I think the current crop of pollsters are.

[The Minsky Moment]

IIRC the pollsters did just fine in 2018 . . .

[Caliga]

Also, some non-Presidential observations for you all:

* McConnell destroyed McGrath in KY, just as everyone with a brain knew he would.  Why the national party set a bunch of money on fire for her, I'll never understand.  McConnell is unbeatable here.

* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents.

[The Minsky Moment]

* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents.

You're welcome.