US Election Week 2020

[katmai]

GA outstanding votes is increasing up to 49,000 right now. I go back to: fuck Georgia, they don't have their shit together, I don't really believe their data anywhere it's being reported. Probably just need to wait til they actually say "we've counted everything and are done", because they don't know what the fuck is going on.

OvB--in general I've been telling you this about Georgia for a long time, and in this specific case this AM I was saying the statements from major county didn't match the state data.

We talked about this regarding the problems regarding voting in the state. Georgia basically delegates all the voting process stuff to local officials and there are 159 counties (because of a state rule that no county seat can be more than a day's ride from the furthest part of the county, we have lot of counties). The state role is to basically collect vote information. So you have a bunch of local officials at various levels of incompetence, and in the case of the metro Atlanta area with a dysfunctional relationship with the state (because they are all democrats while the state officials are all republican).

So if you had to make a bet, who would you think is reporting correct amount of votes left to be counted?

[FunkMonk]

Once Philadelphia county reports that'll put Biden over the top and they'll call it there.

[Valmy]

It just goes to show that a super high turnout election like this, while great for democracy, is not as great for Democrats as some have theorized.

But I am less upset about losing some seats when it is because everybody turned out and they just like the other guy more than losing them in some low turnout midterm.

[derspiess]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

uh. Wut?

I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.

Oh, sadly yes, but will still have a majority

Sadly? Gloriously!!

[Sheilbh]

Stabbed in the back, it seems:

Eric Trump
@EricTrump
Where is the GOP?! Our voters will never forget...

And a decent number of leading Republicans have called for the votes to just be counted. As I say, great result for the establishment GOP.

[FunkMonk]

Stabbed in the back, it seems:

Eric Trump
@EricTrump
Where is the GOP?! Our voters will never forget...

And a decent number of leading Republicans have called for the votes to just be counted. As I say, great result for the establishment GOP.

He's gonna try to burn them all down on his way out and it'll be amazing television.

[Razgovory]

Ugh.  Democrats are counting their chickens before they are hatched.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/h_286851fc4737ee107951376bd3448b6a

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey told CNN Thursday afternoon that he firmly believes there are enough uncounted votes in the Keystone State for Joe Biden to overtake President Donald Trump.

Casey predicted that Biden could overtake Trump by a 100,000 vote margin in Pennsylvania, but that it might "only reached when the vote is certified, which is down the road."

"But for the short term, no question, I think, Joe Biden will win the state," Casey, who has served in the US Senate since 2007, continued.

Casey added that he thinks Biden's Pennsylvania win is "inevitable" because the remaining vote results that have yet to be tallied reside in and around cities and are mail-in votes.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/h_cbb93ccb102ed6d8568f4cf09a4a4bef

On an ongoing caucus call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is giving a positive assessment of the outcome of Tuesday's election, a Democratic source on the call tells CNN. This is despite House Democratic losses that likely mean she will hold a smaller majority in the new Congress.

"This was a big win," she told House Democrats, referring to Joe Biden nearing a White House win, keeping the House majority and likely gaining at least a seat in the Senate.

"We did not win every battle, but we won the war," Pelosi said, according to this source.
Pelosi said that they "recognized from the start [2020] would be a steeper climb" to hold some of their seats because House Democrats did so well in deep red districts in 2018 when Trump wasn't on the ballot.

Pelosi is also talking up the importance of the two possible Georgia Senate runoffs to take back the Senate majority.

Rep. Cheri Bustos, a who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, blamed bad polling for the outcome and for the bullish predictions headed into Election Day, according to two sources on the call.

"Voters looked more like 2016 than projected," Bustos told Democrats, one of the sources said.

Pelosi, giving an upbeat assessment, tells Democrats that "we have created a mandate for Biden to lead our country in a unified way."

The source said that Pelosi is using the word "mandate" repeatedly.

The call with her members comes amid Democratic hand-wringing about what went wrong Tuesday for their congressional candidates.

[katmai]

Are democrats going to lose the house?

uh. Wut?

I read that Democrats are expected to lose some seats.

Oh, sadly yes, but will still have a majority

Sadly? Gloriously!!

like, that's your opinion man.

[alfred russel]

So if you had to make a bet, who would you think is reporting correct amount of votes left to be counted?

I have no idea. There is no track record for any of this. The people who should know best are the local officials, but how do you square that they are telling the newspaper lower numbers than the secretary of state is reporting (that ultimately is from them)? I can come up with theories--maybe they feel pressure to show competence and that they are almost done, so give partial numbers to the local newspaper but put in proper numbers for the state reporting?

In any event, there can't be too much precision because problem ballots can still be cured tomorrow.

Some betting odds though (all for biden winning):

Pennsylvania: 88%
Nevada: 91%
Arizona: 80%
Georgia: 73%

It seems like this is basically closing out, regardless of a bit of messiness here and there.

[The Larch]

what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?

We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. 

That woman is a saint.

that's one way to look at it.

Or fictional.

[Syt]

what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?

We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. 

That woman is a saint.

that's one way to look at it.

Or fictional.

You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?

[alfred russel]

It just goes to show that a super high turnout election like this, while great for democracy, is not as great for Democrats as some have theorized.

But I am less upset about losing some seats when it is because everybody turned out and they just like the other guy more than losing them in some low turnout midterm.

It has been conventional wisdom that low turnout = wins for republicans because they turn out no matter what.

But if the best turnout group is the educated, and they are flipping to the democrats, the conventional wisdom may flip some too. Realignment....

[crazy canuck]

what are the odds she doesn't dump your ass in less than five years?

We are getting married in May and have been together almost 4 years. 

That woman is a saint.

that's one way to look at it.

Or fictional.

You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?

fiance implies there is another person involved.

[DGuller]

You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?

Yes, me, the person skewering AP's call for the last 24 hours, is definitely AR's fiancée. 

[katmai]

You mean his fiance will turn out to be DGuller?

Yes, me, the person skewering AP's call for the last 24 hours, is definitely AR's fiancée. 

Just don't tell him you know he bet 20k on this election