US Election Week 2020

[Admiral Yi]

I'm feeling much better than I was last night, with the info that mail ins haven't been counted.

[Threviel]

If he wins GA, like I believe and Nevada, where he leads, Biden will win.

[alfred russel]

There was some talk on the future of the GOP and bringing latinos into the fold. It may be happening already--exit polls are not perfect, but there is a county that is 96% hispanic - Starr County Texas.

In 2016, it voted for Clinton 79% and Trump 19%.

In 2020, it voted for Biden 52% and Trump 47%.

That is a swing of R +55% in 4 years.

If the Republicans weren't running a candidate calling mexicans rapists and murderers, they might have even won the county.

[FunkMonk]

Looks like the Red Mirage rang true

In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.

[Sheilbh]

It actually may not even be very close. I just check predictit and Biden is now the betting favorite in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If that holds, he will win in the electoral college 306-232.

According to the NYT there's 1.4 million outstanding absentee ballots in Pennsylvania and the first million broke 80-20 to Biden. Plus there's still election day votes to count in Philadelphia and the suburbs. Hopefully that all holds because Trump's lead is 700k.

[alfred russel]

Just had my heart jump when I read of a burst pipe in Georgia stopping 60k postal votes being counted. Seems they weren't damaged and are due to be counted later today.
I remember in the prediction thread saying it would be awesome if a traditionally republican state made the difference. Could be heading that way. Final nail in the confederacys coffin as it's clearly urban /rural & industrial states that make the difference?

I love ACW references and hijacks, but I just have to point out that this is a terrible take.

[Sheilbh]

Looks like the Red Mirage rang true

In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.

It was little bit stressful earlier in the day.

But, on the other hand in 2016 I remember crawling all over US electoral maps to look for hidden pockets of Democratic votes that still needed to report. I'm not too sad that Republicans might now be doing that

Edit: I think Nate Silver was doing some calculations and said the popular vote might work out at 52/48, which is a cursed number for the British posters

[celedhring]

Looks like the Red Mirage rang true

In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.

We don't have the "you can count votes postmarked before election day" thing, but over here mail votes are just mixed in with election day votes when doing the recount (I was chosen to man a polling station some time ago).

[FunkMonk]

All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.

[jimmy olsen]

Biden up 21k in Wisconsin, up 8k in Nevada
Down 12k in Michigan

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

[jimmy olsen]

All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.

What can they do if the chuds don't answer the phone?

[alfred russel]

Looks like the Red Mirage rang true

In the future, it would be nice for states to count all methods of voting at the same time.

If Florida(!) can get counting quickly figured out, it seems other states should be able to as well.

But something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.

[FunkMonk]

All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters.

What can they do if the chuds don't answer the phone?

Most of them know how to code. They can find new careers.

[Josquius]

I hate gambling. But my imaginary money is on PA going trump but Biden winning anyway. Georgia to him

. All pollsters to be fired immediately. Fire all pollsters

Look at 270towins models and though there's a long tail for Biden with some massive wins coming out, the bulk of outcomes hover around things being even, with a lot more on the Biden side of the fence.

I don't think the polls were wrong here. Remember the margin of error is always there - in 2016 the polls were broadly right outside of a few states too.

[Sheilbh]

If Florida(!) can get counting quickly figured out, it seems other states should be able to as well.

My understanding is that the Republican legislatures in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all opposed measures to start counting mail-in ballots early. Which makes sense in a normal year when mail-in ballots etc are, from my understanding, normally quite restricted in those states. But I feel like if you increase that route to voting then you really should follow the model of states like Florida and start counting early.

But something I agree with Republicans on is that ballots should be received by election day to be counted. What a mess it could be in a truly close election to have ballots floating around unsecured, and ambiguity on when they were put into the system. Plus everyone is on pins and needles for days. Get the ballots out to voters with plenty of time for them to return them, and from there it is on the voter.

That's the way it is in the UK and I agree. But I think that's a legislative change you make ahead of a vote - I don't agree with the idea that you can challenge it in the courts after people have received their ballots. I might not like it but that was possibly the law when people cast their ballots and I feel like that should be respected.