US Election Week 2020

[alfred russel]

Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia.  Stop, stop, enough.

I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.

It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.

[Caliga]

@JR I thought you lived in NY?  But thanks homie.

[Maladict]

But the Cuban thing and the Senate races need some explaining.

But weren't those polling errors? I get that he weights them and probably needs to examine those weightings, but surely he's not responsible for the underlying polls being so wrong.

Maybe, I'm sure he will publish a lengthy explanation soon.

[Josquius]

Polls are not an exact science. Confidence levels and intervals are a thing. Most results were well within their margin of error.
The trouble for pollsters, and something that is really interesting, is quite how many states are so close to 50/50. In the past when pollsters said blue would get 60% in a state and they got 55% instead nobody blinked. When its 51% and 49%.... That makes a difference.

What I find so amazing is how things are so perfectly split 50/50. In the UK I'd be tempted to blame polls for this, giving the right the power of micro targeting and wedge issues. But is Trump really bright enough for this? How has he managed to his upon the perfect wedges so expertly? - is it not down to him but rather his foreign supporters on social media that we are getting this?- an acrimonious 50/50 split is afterall the perfect outcome for those who want to see a country suffer.

[Maladict]

Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia.  Stop, stop, enough.

I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.

It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.

Nevada isn't entirely safe it seems.

[Sheilbh]

I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.

It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.

It's kind of extraordinary that after all the weeks of narrative about this, the crucial tipping states might not actually be Pennsylvania or Florida

It does feel like potentially a very transitional map.

* Pot got legalized in NJ, so I'll be really enjoying my next trip home to visit my parents.

Loads of states legalised or decriminalised various substances. It's striking how far ahead on this the US is compared to us

[Caliga]

It's odd to me that a bunch of liberal ballot measures seemed to have passed and yet Biden is struggling so much.

[The Larch]

Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.

Michigan   6%   322,000   3,700   Biden

[Grey Fox]

Oregon legalized, kinda, magic mushroom.

Californians are still assholes to the working class by refusing to consider App-based drivers to be employees.

[derspiess]

* McConnell destroyed McGrath in KY, just as everyone with a brain knew he would.  Why the national party set a bunch of money on fire for her, I'll never understand.  McConnell is unbeatable here.

Maybe they just had money to blow.  They spent a lot of money in other unsuccessful (and fairly hopeless) Senate and state-level races.

[Solmyr]

Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.

Michigan   6%   322,000   3,700   Biden

Biden up 10k now.

[DGuller]

Biden is down to 74%, mainly because of Georgia.  Stop, stop, enough.

I don't get it. If Georgia is Trumpy, and Pennsylvania goes to Trump (much less likely), unless Michigan goes R we are looking at a Biden win 270-268.

It seems Michigan is probably the critical state, and even then Biden has outs.

Georgia is Plan C, yes, but still your odds are better if you have plan C than if you don't.

[alfred russel]

It's kind of extraordinary that after all the weeks of narrative about this, the crucial tipping states might not actually be Pennsylvania or Florida

Well, I think Florida was critical because Biden was up in the polls there and if he won that state Trump had no way to make it up (the state has too many electoral votes). Also its polls closed in the first wave and it now counts votes very quickly, so this could have effectively been over by ~9pm.

Pennsylvania was most likely to be the tipping point state, and there really isn't a reason to think it won't be: but the vote collection/counting will take a long time there. So in terms of counting votes it may not be the one to announce the result that puts Biden over the top.

[Caliga]

Maybe they just had money to blow.  They spent a lot of money in other unsuccessful (and fairly hopeless) Senate and state-level races.

I guess so?  I just don't understand it.  McConnell is to KY what Ted Kennedy was to MA.  He's Senator for Life.

[alfred russel]

Michigan has flipped to Biden, with 6% of votes still pending to be counted.

Michigan   6%   322,000   3,700   Biden

Biden up 10k now.

I *think* that puts this close to being in the bag.

Give Trump Georgia and Pennsylvania. That gives him 268 electoral votes. He needs 269 (assuming he would win a tie). If he can't get them from Michigan, he has to get them from Nevada? Not sure where the next best option is.

Biden is up to 90% on predictit.