US Election Week 2020

[mongers]

A big thumbs up from the Fromtia Wild Eyed Panic Bunker to all of you. I had resolved not to look at my phone or read any news outlets through all of this and instead chose to rely on all of you for some generally thoughtful and insightful commentary on events as they unfold, and you have delivered, as you have done in times past. Thanks. 

Wise man.

[DGuller]

If the GOP can keep the Senate I'll be fairly happy with this whole mess of an election.

They'll definitely keep the Senate now. 

One silver lining is that Republicans are probably going to be a lot less willing to go along with Trump's banana republic tactics now that they know that they still have the Senate, the filibuster, and the Supreme Court.  They don't need to break the system that still would disproportionately benefit them.

[DGuller]

I'm unconvinced that is a problem. What I think is more likely to be a problem is a politician makes a speech, or there is a debate, and then you get a couple hours of news programming never discussing the merits of the policy discussed and instead talking about the political motivations behind the speech and how it will affect the political fortunes of the republicans and democrats.

Yes, our media has always been a big part of the problem.  Not because they're fake news, they're not, but because they're commercial news.

[DGuller]

Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan.  Is Arizona not a done deal after all?

[Josquius]

Trump campaign sending emails again.

https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897

Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors

See, this is why I'm not convinced that demographic change will eventually force the GOP to adapt or leave, as long as conservative rural areas wield disproportionate power.

The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.

Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.

[alfred russel]

Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan.  Is Arizona not a done deal after all?

If you want to rely on PredictIt, I can say with confidence you need to discount anything at 90+. I had Vermont, New York, Hawaii, California and other states in the 92-93 range just prior to the election. DC got down to 92 a few weeks ago. I had New Mexico at 85.

The fees make it really hard to clear anything out at the ends of ranges.

That said, Trump may have a bit more life than some are giving him credit for in Arizona.

[fromtia]

Alternatively, eliminate rural poverty.

Address the material concerns of voters? What madness is this? No! Kneeling in Kente cloth only!

[Josquius]

Biden is still favourite in PA I see....
Am I alone in being skeptical of this?

[Sheilbh]

Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan.  Is Arizona not a done deal after all?

According to the NYT map there was an error with the data feed which meant it was incorrectly putting the count at 98% complete, not 86%. So that may be part of it?

The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.

Demographics is destiny is always bullshit because I'm old enough to remember George W Bush's "emerging Republican majority" (I think that was the phrase, right? Stuff like steel tariffs, NCLB and social conservatism was meant to lure minority voters)

But I think that the map we might see does look indicative of a possible transition and I don't see any reason why the US won't have the type of party re-alignment that the rest of the developed world has seen. I think it's striking that actually this election is less racially polarised than 2016 but more divided on education level which isn't just class but also cultural signifiers etc.

Edit: And Adrian Vermeule (the common good, Catholic integralist Harvard Law Professor) is excited for this potential re-alignment:

The future will be multiracial, working class, socially conservative populism and I can't wait

[DGuller]

Biden is still favourite in PA I see....
Am I alone in being skeptical of this?

If you trust 538 commentary, when all is said and done, Trump didn't gain anywhere on his 2016 results on PA, and lost ground in a couple of counties.  That coupled with absentee ballots leaning Democratic seems to imply fairly good things for Biden.  Then again, this is 2020, who the fuck knows what's going to happen?

[Josephus]

State          Votes left to count (est.)   Current margin   Current leader
                        %   votes   
Michigan           13%   699,000                    66,387             Trump

So, Michigan has started to count the remaining votes and the Dem advantage in those votes seems to be quite clear. 159k votes counted and Trump's advantage has gone down drastically.

State          Votes left to count (est.)   Current margin   Current leader
                        %   votes   
Michigan           10%   540,000                    13,057            Trump

OMG voter fraud confirmed.

Trump's already hinting that on Twitter a half hour ago

"How come every time they count Mail-In ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction?"

[alfred russel]

Looking at PredictIt map, Arizona is priced lower than even Wisconsin and Michigan.  Is Arizona not a done deal after all?

Ugghhhh...this is exhausting.

I was digging into this, and it seems that most of the ballots are outstanding in Maricopa county, which has so far gone for biden 52-46. It seems as of 8am there were maybe 400k ballots outstanding. However, these seem to exclude early votes. Biden is up about 93k in the state.

So I wouldn't want to be Trump, but if you exclude the very early votes the remaining could have a Trump skew. Probably not enough to make up the difference, and I don't know more than the people making the decisions, but I can see why predictit would have odds greater than 0.

[Josephus]

I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.

I had to stop watching CNN.  John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'

At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."

It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something?

John King looks forward to this every four years, the way a budding gymnast looks forward to the olympics. This is his moment. Right now.

[Caliga]

The AP called Arizona for Biden before midnight last night and haven't budged from their call since.

[Caliga]

John King looks forward to this every four years, the way a budding gymnast looks forward to the olympics. This is his moment. Right now.

To him: It means everything.