US Election Week 2020

[Eddie Teach]

Trump and Biden. Pistols at dawn.

Damn, should have gone with Booty-gig.

[Caliga]

The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.

I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.

There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.

[PDH]

From Vanity Fair:

According to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood

"According to a source"...

The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.

Because, as anti-science types, the "calling" is akin to the magical incatation that makes it so.  In order for it to swing back to Trump, Fox needs to uncall it first so that the spell can work properly.

[alfred russel]

What would happen if that's the case? Or rather--what is supposed to happen?

It's kind of fucked up.  The House of Representatives votes to decide the election, but each state delegation gets one vote.  Yes, that means Wyoming has as much power in that vote as California does.  I guess the delegates get together and vote, and then whomever wins that vote puts one vote in the hat for Trump or Biden.

I think Republicans will have ~27 delegations so that means they would ostensibly win. But they have no obligation to chose Trump or Biden. The one rep from Wyoming and one rep from Alaska could decide that someone better than Trump exists, and insist on electing Paul Ryan or something.

[alfred russel]

Biden will end up with 306 at the end.

That is what the betting odds say.

[Caliga]

I think Republicans will have ~27 delegations so that means they would ostensibly win. But they have no obligation to chose Trump or Biden. The one rep from Wyoming and one rep from Alaska could decide that someone better than Trump exists, and insist on electing Paul Ryan or something.

That's right, for sure before yesterday they controlled 27 delegations, so if they all vote on party lines, Trump wins an electoral tie.  But I don't believe they are bound to vote for their own party, no, and yeah, certain states only have the single Rep so that Rep can just do whatever the fuck they want to.

[Josquius]

Picking a non trump republican would probably best represent the actual election results to be fair.

[Admiral Yi]

Fake. Vulgar.
Gambling, sex work, and tacky hotels.
A poor man's vision of wealth and success.
They just seem so made for each other.

Tourists don't vote there.  Restaurant workers and hotel cleaning staff are going to lean Democrat.  FYI, it's a very unionized town.

[The Brain]

Is Putin expected to give a concession speech soon, if all goes well?

[Caliga]

Tourists don't vote there.  Restaurant workers and hotel cleaning staff are going to lean Democrat.  FYI, it's a very unionized town.

Right.

[alfred russel]

I actually think it does matter, because if the networks call things a certain way and therefore there builds a certain momentum of understanding as to who won (even if it's not true), it potentially colors any decisions that the courts make, if it comes to that.

There's a theory that this happened in 2000 with Bush vs. Gore because most of the initial calls were that Bush won Florida, so immediately Gore was perceived to be 'trying to steal' the election when he challenged it.

At the extreme margins that is plausible, but it requires an extremely close race so small differences in recount procedures matter. We don't have one of those yet.

The more extreme way the courts could intervene--to disallow a swath of submitted votes due to a procedural issue--if the election outcome hinges on that it will be explosive beyond imagination.

[DGuller]

From Vanity Fair:

According to a source, Trump phoned Rupert Murdoch to scream about Fox calling Arizona for Joe Biden and demanded a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood

"According to a source"...

The thing I don't get is why this matters. They are going to count the votes in Arizona. If Fox was right, Trump will lose. If Fox is wrong, he will win. If there is some point that requires litigation, whether Fox "called" the state is irrelevant.

It matters because Trump's strategy is to win the narrative early, so that vote counting can be influenced or at the least legitimacy of Biden undermined.  Fox took some wind out of his sails with the AZ call, though clearly not enough.

[Caliga]

Picking a non trump republican would probably best represent the actual election results to be fair.

I hope it doesn't come to that and since it's never happened, it's really hard to predict what might happen.  For example, the lone Representative from Wyoming is Dick Cheney's daughter, and IIRC she's a total wackjob, so who knows what she'd do.  It would only take two of these lone Reps in Republican states to do something crazy to cause all sorts of chaos.

[Caliga]

It matters because Trump's strategy is to win the narrative early, so that vote counting can be influenced or at the least legitimacy of Biden undermined.  Fox took some wind out of his sails with the AZ call, though clearly not enough.

Right, pretty much what I was trying to say.

[Admiral Yi]

Fun factoid I picked up on NPR.  Most states have laws that say they will pick up the tab for a recount if the initial margin of victory, typically 0.1% to 0.5%.  Otherwise, the person requesting the recount has to pick up the tab.  That Green Party dingbat paid 6 million plus for a bunch of recounts in 16.