US Election Week 2020

[Josquius]

Numbers looking worse than 3 hours ago.
Arizona called for Biden but huge trump leads in those still being counted with less than 10% to go

Trump's appointed 1/3 of the Supreme Court and a lot of judges in the lower courts. If Biden wins, I doubt the Senate will let him appoint any for four years in the hope that Trump (or Jr) win in 2024 - maybe I'm over-cynical but....

The other point is there is a huge polling failure here even just on the national popular it looks like it's way off.

On that I say time is on the good guys side. No movement for 4 years is less preferable than things becoming better but the longer the line is held the more the boomers kick the bucket and people born in the 21st century start voting.
Millennials are a fairly mixed bag, positive leaning, but with the digital natives I'm very optimistic about their progressive credentials.

On polling being wrong.... I'm seeing this being reported a lot. Though let's not forget though 9/10 predictions were for Biden, the bulk of them were for fairly narrow wins. The most likely outcome was always predicted to be close, the question is which way the margin of error will blow.

[Sheilbh]

 

The PM of Slovenia has called it for Trump and offered his congratulations while criticising the mainstream media

Arizona called for Biden but huge trump leads in those still being counted with less than 10% to go

Nate Cohn made an interesting observation on this: "In a way, the situation right now is vaguely reminiscent of the situation at 11PM in 2016... but in reverse (and in slow motion).
Biden's the favorite, even if narrowly, just about everywhere: PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA. But the trailing candidate is close, and it could be a while"

Trump has a big lead but there's not likely to be that many more Republican votes in those states (given what we know of where they are), so they're likely to be far more Democratic. Which was a bit like 2016 where Clinton had leads in those states, but the Democratic vote had been counted and the remaining votes were likely to be Republicans.

[DGuller]

Couldn't sleep, feeling physically ill. 

[Solmyr]

[Josquius]

[Sheilbh]

Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds)

[celedhring]

Yank friend that moved to Spain last year is already going full hysterics and posting on FB that he's rennouncing his American citizenship and becoming a Spanish citizen instead. 

[Solmyr]

Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds)

It's like less than 10k votes difference... and Jo Jorgensen has 37k votes. 

[katmai]

Fellas,  the votes that are still be be counted in a Wisconsin, Michigan and PA are mostly absentee ballots which are expected to skew Biden way.  Just saying.

[Josquius]

Just had my heart jump when I read of a burst pipe in Georgia stopping 60k postal votes being counted. Seems they weren't damaged and are due to be counted later today.
I remember in the prediction thread saying it would be awesome if a traditionally republican state made the difference. Could be heading that way. Final nail in the confederacys coffin as it's clearly urban /rural & industrial states that make the difference?

[celedhring]

Apparently Biden's now taken the lead in Wisconsin (thank God - and hopefully that holds)

It's like less than 10k votes difference... and Jo Jorgensen has 37k votes. 

From what I can read the rest of the outstanding vote in WI should still be quite blue. I wouldn't worry about it. Now we need one of MI or PA... Flipping GA but losing both of those and ME2 would put Biden at 270, which IIRC keeps Trump prez.

[Solmyr]

Isn't 270 the minimum winning number (269-269 being the tie)?

[katmai]

Yes the magic number is 270

[celedhring]

Yes the magic number is 270

Ah damn, it's true. Had a brain fart. What a relief

[katmai]

Also from Twitter , can't confirm 100% validity but

PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count
And most are mail in ballots