US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

I read an article in the NYT a few weeks ago about the dude that makes their calls. He's a hyper-wonk and seemed completely walled off from outside pressure, very respected among his peers apparently.

Completely walled off except for that one, hilarious time Karl Rove lost his shit over him calling Ohio for Obama

I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.

[Caliga]

@JR I thought you lived in NY? 

Pretty close but there is this little river in the way.

I'm hoping it's the Kill Van Kull, since that's the coolest river name in the world.

[Caliga]

I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.

I had to stop watching CNN.  John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'

At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."

It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something?

[FunkMonk]

Trump campaign sending emails again.

https://twitter.com/geoplace/status/1323946863221968897

Let's get some perspective.
By any normal measure Biden is decisively beating Trump by millions of votes.
We are only still watching because of this antiquated 18th century system of voting for state Electors

See, this is why I'm not convinced that demographic change will eventually force the GOP to adapt or leave, as long as conservative rural areas wield disproportionate power.

The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.

[Maladict]

I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.

Yeah that was painful. We're painting Texas blue because the first vote counted is for Biden, get your cameras out!

They were way too focused on current numbers, acting as if Florida was still in play when it obviously wasn't anymore.

[DGuller]

@Shelf I agree, if every state did it that way, then it's sort of like not having the Electoral College anymore.

Which therefore means we won't do it that way at large.

It's not like that at all, actually.  Even the Congress is heavily biased towards rural areas, even though that was supposed to be the Senate's job.  Splitting the vote by congressional district is still a far cry from a popular vote.

[DGuller]

I flitted between ABC and CNN. It depended how long I could endure John King trying to patiently explain to Wolf Blitzer that the reason Wayne County was showing for Trump was because they'd only recorded three votes so far.

I had to stop watching CNN.  John King talks like an auctioneer which makes me nervous, and literally every other phrase out of Wolf Blitzer's mouth is 'RIGHT NOW'

At one point I think he said "RIGHT NOW, we're looking RIGHT NOW at Wisconsin returns from Milwaukee RIGHT NOW where RIGHT NOW Biden is showing a strong lead RIGHT NOW."

It's like, is this some secret shout out to Van Halen or something?

I think 24/7 news channels really need to learn how to moderate their excitement.  If everything is breaking news, then nothing is breaking news.

[fromtia]

The demographics is destiny approach the Dems have believed since forever is dead now. They need to find a way to win rural voters the way Obama had done. They can't keep getting cleaned out in the sticks.

I wish they would put it to bed. Squeak a narrow win with a neo liberal shape shifter and have the pundocracy declare that the future is Blue because: reasons. Make it stop.

[alfred russel]

Completely walled off except for that one, hilarious time Karl Rove lost his shit over him calling Ohio for Obama

It is this attitude that I completely don't understand. And it is completely bipartisan.

People attack anyone who tries to interpret the world factually, if their interpretation differs from what they want. So the decision desk dude was wrong about calling Ohio for Obama (he wasn't). Time will show him to be wrong, if he is. There is no reason for Karl Rove to come after him.

I worry that this is what is sinking Nate Silver. He wants to be progressive and he has a progressive audience, but his audience doesn't want to hear bad news and really if your gig is data analysis there isn't much room for partisan opinion (except as commentary). You put those same pressures on the groups producing the data that he relies on--like the New York Times and Washington Post--and you get not just an echo chamber but one with an amplifier.

[DGuller]

I read an article making an argument that models like 538 are destructive in part because they can affect what they're measuring.  If people know what 538 says, they may be more or less likely to vote because of it.  I think that's a very valid critique, that's a deadly danger of any statistical model.

[Caliga]

It's not like that at all, actually.  Even the Congress is heavily biased towards rural areas, even though that was supposed to be the Senate's job.  Splitting the vote by congressional district is still a far cry from a popular vote.

I shall have to meditate upon this.  I had always assumed electoral vote splitting like NE and ME do would help to bring the country closer to a true popular vote.

[Sheilbh]

But it's true of polling as well which has been a staple of election reporting as long as it's existed - this is just the next iteration. I think in the UK there was evidence that polling had an effect on the 2015 election (and actually in our multi-party system polls can be an attack point - a vote for Labour is actually a vote for a "coalition of chaos" with the SNP).

That's what I mean by Nate Silver started by critiquing horse race reporting that just said who's up-who's down based on polls and data that was often being misinterpreted. But I feel like to a large extent he just replaced the horse race, which was not his goal, and you get the same issues around it being misinterpreted.

We will always look for interpretive tools to understand the world and so will newspapers when reporting it. I think they get over-reported, but ultimately if that's what people want to read it's tough to argue against. There's clearly demand for this stuff.

[DGuller]

JFC, Biden is back to 82%.  Stop, just make it stop.

[derspiess]

If the GOP can keep the Senate I'll be fairly happy with this whole mess of an election. 

[alfred russel]

I read an article making an argument that models like 538 are destructive in part because they can affect what they're measuring.  If people know what 538 says, they may be more or less likely to vote because of it.  I think that's a very valid critique, that's a deadly danger of any statistical model.

Turnout will probably be ~150-160 million. How many people do you really think are engaged with 538? And then how many of those aren't already highly engaged?

For perspective, the digital subscriptions to the NYT are just under 3 million and the Sunday circulation just over a million.

I'm unconvinced that is a problem. What I think is more likely to be a problem is a politician makes a speech, or there is a debate, and then you get a couple hours of news programming never discussing the merits of the policy discussed and instead talking about the political motivations behind the speech and how it will affect the political fortunes of the republicans and democrats.