US Election Week 2020

[Syt]

I don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.

The system absolutely prevents it, it has nothing to do with tradition and intertia.  In our current system, a non-joke third party would either catastrophically split the vote with the next closest party, or it would quickly replace one of the other two parties.  The first-past-the-post system promotes duopoly.

Fair enough, but that leads me to another point - get rid of FPTP. Or change it in a way that represents the broad electorate better. We do that in German federal elections. You have two votes: one for the local candidate race in the district who automatically wins a seat. The second vote for a party list which then allocates the party's seats in parliament. If a party wins 10 seats per list vote and wins 7 FTPT seats, the remaining three are filled form the list (unfortunately it means if a party wins 10 direct seats and 7 list seats, the parliament size is increased to such a point that the list % seats reaches 10). Our state chamber is filled with members of the state governments - but to be fair, the state chamber in Germany is nowhere near as powerful as the US Senate.

Speaking of power - it's an outside layperson's perspective, but has the presidency had a lot of power creep over the decades/centuries? Should something be done about that?

(I'm well aware that there's not likely to be any changes to the US system any time soon. I understand that one of the thoughts behind it was to avoid a tyranny of the majority and therefore safeguards were put in place to ensure smaller electorates and smaller states have leverage.

However, the GOP strategy now seems to be built around a tyranny of the minority at this point where they get enough support from those states that have comparatively more impact per vote to govern effectively against the majority of the nation - this can also not be a good thing in the long run.)

[Valmy]

However there are still 5000+ military ballots and another 7000 overseas to be counted.

Heh. Trump should dominate the first set. It might be up to the Democrats Abroad to win it for Joe in Georgia.

[DGuller]

In NY there is a fusion system, which is a little complicated, but it allows candidates to represent multiple parties simultaneously.  The idea is that someone can show their support for Working Families Party while still not wasting a vote, because a Working Families Party candidate would usually be a Democratic candidate.  For example, in this election, 4.5% of the voters in NY voted for Joe Biden under the Working Families Party ticket rather than Democratic ticket.

[DGuller]

Fair enough, but that leads me to another point - get rid of FPTP.

As I said, Massachusetts tried just this year.  Democrats supported it.  It didn't pass.  FPTP absolutely should go, no argument there.

[Valmy]

1,267 in Georgia.

18,229 in Pennsylvania.

[DGuller]

Last batch in GA went 91% for Biden.  Nice job, Habbaku. 

[The Minsky Moment]

However there are still 5000+ military ballots and another 7000 overseas to be counted.

Heh. Trump should dominate the first set. It might be up to the Democrats Abroad to win it for Joe in Georgia.

It's looking like Biden will end up ahead 2000-3000 when everything comes in except the military and overseas.  So it could come down to that.

[Solmyr]

Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*

I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.

That would basically mean that the Center party will buckle to whatever demands the crazy Trump party would make in order to give their support. We've seen that in European countries where conservatives are basically enabling fascists just to stay in power a bit longer.

[Solmyr]

[Syt]

[Syt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/05/trump-biden-election-live-updates/#link-6HGNLHMXEZGURAMI7JQI2RZEM4

Graham, Cruz and others rally to Trump's defense after being called out by president's sons

By Colby Itkowitz

After Trump's sons and others in the president's immediate orbit complained that not enough Republicans were speaking out in defense of the president's unsubstantiated claims of election corruption, several prominent Republicans publicly echoed Trump's rhetoric.

When Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who won reelection, was mentioned on Twitter by name for staying silent about the results, Donald Trump Jr. tweeted back, "No one is surprised."

Several hours later, Graham was on Fox News with Sean Hannity, where he falsely claimed that the election had been rigged. The senator, one of Trump's closest allies on Capitol Hill, said he would be donating $500,000 to Trump's legal fund, prompting Eric Trump to tweet: "Thank you for having a spine! Fight this fraud!"

Graham also told Hannity that he was open to the idea of the GOP-controlled Pennsylvania legislature choosing its own electors, overriding the will of the voters.

After Graham's segment, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) appeared with Hannity and accused the Democrats of trying to steal the election from Trump.

Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville, who defeated incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.), made similar allegations, tweeting the same conspiracy theory that the legal counting of mail-in ballots for Biden is proof of corruption.

"The election results are out of control. It's like the whistle has blown, the game is over and the players have gone home, but the referees are suddenly adding touchdowns to the other team's side of the scoreboard," the former football coach said.

Earlier in the day, Trump's sons began tweeting about the lack of Republican support, specifically warning anyone who might consider running for president in 2024 that Trump voters wouldn't forget their silence.

[katmai]

Per MSNBC Trump's lead is down to 665 votes in Georgia..good on you Habbu

[Maladict]

And there it is.

U.S. Supreme Court should decide!

[Liep]

And there it is.

U.S. Supreme Court should decide!

Censored on Twitter and unshareable. His own guy admitted that they had non-zero people overseeing the counting.

[Sheilbh]

What should bug you is how Trump increased his support among LGBT and minority voters.

But lost support among woman voters. It seems like we came out ahead given how we got more votes than last time.

I suspect both of those trends to reverse slightly sans Trump but we will see how it goes. He appeals and repels people in a very specific way that is not easily transferable to Ted Cruz and company.

And, from my understanding, all of this analysis is based on exit polls of election day voters (who as we've seen are overwhelmingly more Trump). As someone put it on Twitter:
"Twitter yesterday: Polling is dead, cancel the quants
Twitter today: Exit polls reveal third-generation Uzbeks from the Ottumwa exurbs betrayed us by 1.7 points"

I don't think we should be placing much weight on that exit poll. It's probably best to wait for a deeper analysis of all voters including early and mail-in voters.

I think we can say that Trump did better with some Latinos (and the striking thing here is basically all of the increased turnout went to Trump - so they may have done very well in GOTV) and Biden is doing far, far better with suburban voters. That's clear from the NYT map of trends - but that's about it (it's a very confusing map). I think we should see where things lay when there's proper analysis because in a lot of ways this is a very unique election.

A win in GA would take a lot of the sting out of this dud of a blue wave.

I mean as I say it looks like a transitional map - the Dems win back their blue wall states, but if they get Georgia and Arizona, then it feels like their sun belt hopes might be paying off. It's that strategic choice from 2018: rebuild the heartands or chase the suburbs. Because I think the politics of those look quite different.

I don't think that well-off people are supporting Republicans because they want to save a buck on taxes.  I the dynamic in play is more that people lose their empathy as they become more successful.  They lose their empathy both out of arrogance, as well as out of simply losing touch with how people who are not as unfortunate live, even if they lived that lifestyle themselves not too long ago.

One other possibility is that Trump is the first GOP candidate who has made any effort to win LGBT votes. He's got gay people in his administration - they did the Trump pride event. It may be that there were always some LGBT voters who wanted to and would vote Republican if Republicans made any outreach or attempt to not make beating up on the rights of gay people (not trans) a core part of their pitch.

What I've found striking is that all of that's happened with a candidate who evangelicals consider more "their guy" than anyone since W.

In Pennsylvania a crowd of Trump supporters is chanting "stop the count."  In Arizona a crowd is chanting "count all votes."

I know.

Have any senior active Republican politicains yet come out and said in effect ' preserving the democratic election process is more important than the result this time' ?

A lot of senior Republicans, including Pence have basically said that the votes should be counted.

I wonder if DGuller would? Actually, I wonder how many of our lefties would abandon a left wing version of Trump....

Can't speak for the Yanks but I couldn't vote for Corbyn - so I voted Green

Bigger picture, it currently has a congressional delegation with 9 republicans and 5 democrats, 2 republican senators, a republican governor, I think every elected state position is a republican, a republican state house, and a republican state senate.

But it also feels like their state party has been doing work to build up Georgia as a competitive state unlike, say, Florida

I don't think the system prevents it but tradition and inertia. I think the time would be ripe for a third party in US politics, but I think the idea of it being a two party system is too entrenched in the minds of people who would consider a third option vote a waste and who prefer, in general, an option A and an option B to pick between, not A, B, C, D, E.

The system's a big part of it I think - it forces big tent/coalition based parties. US politics would look very different if they had, say a French system of electing Presidents with a run-off.