US Election Week 2020

[The Minsky Moment]

The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".

If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.

[mongers]

The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".

If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.

Funnily enough I was just thinking Is Trump hoping for or are his extremist followers planning some Reichstag type outrage during the next few weeks?

[OttoVonBismarck]

The Georgia SecState has certified the election result there, Governor Brian Kemp now has to sign off on the certification and the appointment of electors by 5pm tomorrow. This is a purely "ministerial" function in which the law allows for no discretion by the Governor. So I think it is _likely_ that GA is done and Kemp will certify. Kemp is a fairly stupid and Trumpy Republican so he may choose to refuse to sign, which would then go to litigation. I would wager decent odds he just signs it though, for him politically it's probably better any focus stays up in MI / PA.

With GA down and the states of NV and AZ having no serious procedural, political or legal avenues for Trump I think you can consider those three states "safe" at this point. (Democrats control the actual power structures for certification in AZ and NV and their state laws offer even less maneuvering for trouble than GA's.) That's 260 EVs very close to locker up.

[crazy canuck]

His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.

I don't recall making this point.

Forget it.  He's rollin'.

Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with.  No need to tell him to forget it.

[crazy canuck]

The other point in that statement from one of Trump's lawyers is: "we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom." That is the end-point from Palin's line about "real America".

If you translated that press conference into German, changed the names and places to be topical for Germany in 1931 (eg Rothschilds for Soros, Hamburg for Philly), you could ascribe it Goebbels and it would totally believable.

No need to do the translation.  It is Fascist all on its own.

[The Minsky Moment]

I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)

Although they might also create enough doubt to hold up certifications. See this from the Washington Post last night:

Michigan GOP official leaning toward seeking to delay certification of vote
By Beth Reinhard

One of the two Republican members of the four-member Michigan canvassing board, Norman Shinkle, said Thursday said that he is leaning toward asking for a delay in the certification vote and calling for an audit. The board is scheduled to vote Monday.

"I do think with all of the potential problems, if any of them are true, an audit is appropriate," he said in a telephone interview. "I take one step at a time, and if we can get more information, why not?"

Among his concerns: the debunked claim by Trump allies, including attorney Sidney Powell, that Dominion Voting Systems, the Colorado-based manufacturer of voting machines, deleted thousands of Trump votes. "If Dominion was fudging votes, that's a serious problem," he said. "If it's true. I don't know. I have to be convinced of it. That's why the audit makes sense."

Shinkle said his duties go beyond certifying the election — to get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties — even though no evidence of widespread fraud has been found. "Right now the idea to check into some of these accusations seem to make sense to me," he said. "We have to have people trust our system going forward."

Shinkle is under intense scrutiny in part because his wife, Mary Shinkle, filed an affidavit supporting a federal lawsuit by the Trump campaign. The lawsuit was withdrawn. Shinkle said he had not read the affidavit and that people should not assume he would be biased by it. "That's almost an accusation against marriage," he said. "My wife can do whatever she wants to do."

Shinkle joked that his phone is ringing constantly from fellow Republicans urging him not to certify the vote. "Every time someone calls, they tell me about a new problem," he said. He said he hasn't heard from President Trump or any of his representatives, but if he did, "I would say hi. They have a position to advocate."

Asked whether he considered Joe Biden the president-elect, he said: "I haven't thought about that, but the odds are probably that he will become president. But I don't know what's going to happen in Pennsylvania or Nevada. My job is to try to do the right thing for the vote in Michigan."

It creates space for this sort of argument to be almost plausible: "there are enough legal challenges and enough doubt about this election to cast isues on whether it was trustworthy and I cannot, in good conscience, certify it." I don't know if that would work in all states or what the consequences would be.

Shinkle is wrong about his duties, he needs to read the Michigan election code.  The state canvassers have no duties beyond certifying election.  None.  Certainly not " get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties" - whatever the hell that means.  the state code says they "shall" meet and "shall" ascertain and certify the results as provided to them by the county canvassers.  They can "await" receipt or correction of returns, but they don't have the authority to do any investigation or make corrections themselves.  Allegations of fraud are supposed to made to the secretary of state not the state canvasser boards.

The mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election.  That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns.  It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast.  The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.

[Valmy]

Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with.  No need to tell him to forget it.

If I made some kind of statement that made it sound like I thought those things were equivalent that was not my intent. All I was saying is that we should be crushing these assholes but we keep fucking it up. I don't actually know why and how that happens.

However, fumbling the law enforcement reform thing AGAIN is deeply frustrating whether we win elections or not.

[Sheilbh]

Shinkle is wrong about his duties, he needs to read the Michigan election code.  The state canvassers have no duties beyond certifying election.  None.  Certainly not " get to the bottom of any alleged improprieties" - whatever the hell that means.  the state code says they "shall" meet and "shall" ascertain and certify the results as provided to them by the county canvassers.  They can "await" receipt or correction of returns, but they don't have the authority to do any investigation or make corrections themselves.  Allegations of fraud are supposed to made to the secretary of state not the state canvasser boards.

As I don't know the law in any of the states. Doesn't part of it depend on what they can do to "ascertain" the results?

The mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election.  That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns.  It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast.  The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.

Interesting.

[The Minsky Moment]

"ascertain" means add up all the county returns.

[The Minsky Moment]

What do people think Biden should do?

So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.

I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now?

Tell it like it is.
Trump is attempting a coup d'etat to overturn the election and stay in power.  Americans must unite to protect democracy.

Either you are for America or against it.  Rudy and his elite strike force have left no middle ground.

[grumbler]

His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.

I don't recall making this point.

Forget it.  He's rollin'.

Eddie did forget Valmy's statement he had agreed with.  No need to tell him to forget it.

  Yep.  Yer rollin'!

[katmai]

I think Michigan and PA can certify Monday (PA doesn't have to, but can, and likely will.)

i thought PA has deadline of 23rd aka Monday no?

[OttoVonBismarck]

PA doesn't have a (state--there is a Federal deadline for all states) statutory deadline for the SecCommonwealth to certify, it has a 23rd deadline for counties to certify, then the SecCommonwealth can certify at her leisure, since she is a Democrat I would expect nearly immediate certification by her.

[katmai]

Ah gotcha, yeah had heard/seen the 23rd date. Didn't realize was just county level deadline.

[jimmy olsen]

The mischief here is that the state canvassers can delay certification up to the 40th day after the election.  That is December 13, five days after the federal "safe harbor" for state election returns.  It is however the day before the Electors meet to case their votes for President, so in theory there would still be time for those votes to be cast.  The risk of missing the safe harbor is the legislature could try to pull some shenanigans and create a dispute for Congress to resolve; however, under the federal Count Act, if Governor Whitmer signs the Biden return, that one would have to count.

Trump is certainly trying, but it doesn't seem to be working. Those two GOP legislator who met don't seem to want to do it.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/politics/michigan-house-speaker-will-meet-trump/index.html

(CNN)Members of the Michigan state legislature's Republican leadership who met with President Donald Trump at the White House Friday afternoon said they haven't seen any evidence that would change the fact that President-elect Joe Biden won their state.