US Election Week 2020

[PDH]

Remember, they are all commies.  Having this foreign commie talk about Georgia is a recipe for an uprising.

[Valmy]

Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.

Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.

What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.

[Sheilbh]

Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"

It reminds me of one of my favourites, when Paul Boateng won his seat in 1987: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto!"

But yeah - that is not helpful and I don't really see what Schumer is hoping to achieve by speaking to rallies in New York except his ego.

[alfred russel]

Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.

Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.

What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.

In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).

The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.

[The Minsky Moment]

Chuck Schumer at a rally in New York said "now we take georgia, then we change the world!"

It reminds me of one of my favourites, when Paul Boateng won his seat in 1987: "Today Brent South, tomorrow Soweto!"

But yeah - that is not helpful and I don't really see what Schumer is hoping to achieve by speaking to rallies in New York except his ego.

There's a saying that the most dangerous place to be is the space between Chuck Schumer and a microphone.

[Valmy]

Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.

Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.

What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.

In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).

The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.

But surely you would also take away the votes credited for Nixon in Alabama, 238,000, for the same reason.

[Valmy]

I mean I think it is the right message to say that a vote for Perdue and Loeffler is a vote for the status quo and do nothing politics, While Ossoff and Warnock have a whole slate of things they are going to deliver for Georgia right away if elected.

But, you know, maybe it is not so useful to draw their attention to the fact that a New Yorker is going to be doing all the changing.

[Josquius]

I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.

Which transwoman? There were several who won.

My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.

[alfred russel]

Wait, Grover Cleveland served two terms.

Also, Kennedy lost the popular vote to Nixon in 1960, depending on how you count the votes in Alabama.

What way would that be? You either give Kennedy and Nixon the votes for the electors or you don't. Either way Kennedy barely wins the Popular Vote.

In Alabama, people voted directly for electors and each voter got 11 votes. Some electors were republicans, some were democrats, and some were dixiecrats/democrats. In the end, the dixiecrats got 6 electors and the democrats got 5 (those 5 went for Kennedy).

The overall election was super close in the popular vote--Kennedy won by about 112k. But that using the highest number of votes gotten by a Kennedy elector in Alabama--which is something like 318k. That obviously doesn't make much sense logically--you are giving Kennedy an outright majority of votes in a 3 way election in which he got 5 of 11 electors. There are a variety of ways to estimate the number of voters that went to the polls in Alabama with Kennedy as choice #1, and most reduce his popular vote total by more than his margin of popular vote victory.

But surely you would also take away the votes credited for Nixon in Alabama, 238,000, for the same reason.

You wouldn't. Googling on this a bit more (only on wikipedia--somewhere i read a more authoritative analysis of this some time ago), it seems there were 22 electors on the ballot--11 democrats and 11 republicans. The republicans were pledged to Nixon.

5 democrats were pledged to Kennedy and 6 promised to vote dixiecrat.

So the highest vote total for a Nixon elector is probably representative of the voters that went to the polls to vote for Nixon.

There is no way to precisely figure out for the democrats. Obviously many of them preferred dixiecrat, and many preferred kennedy. Based on the primary they had a slate of 6 dixiecrat and 5 kennedy.

[grumbler]

I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.

Which transwoman? There were several who won.

My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.

Dunno about that local race here in Virginia, you'd have to be more specific.

I think you might be thinking of the race for Sheriff in Hamilton County, Ohio, where the woman who was fired by the previous sheriff for being a lesbian ran against his anointed successor and won.  That's not the case of a trans woman, though, as far as I know.

[alfred russel]

I mean I think it is the right message to say that a vote for Perdue and Loeffler is a vote for the status quo and do nothing politics, While Ossoff and Warnock have a whole slate of things they are going to deliver for Georgia right away if elected.

But, you know, maybe it is not so useful to draw their attention to the fact that a New Yorker is going to be doing all the changing.

Here is the number 1 positive ad that was featured by Perdue on youtube in November--I'll give you a hint--it is called "The Road To Socialism Will Never Run Through The State Of Georgia".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfOg0EKiq9M

In probably the most famous ad of the negative campaign, Perdue's ad exaggerated the size his Jewish opponent's nose. You can see it here at the 11 second point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fU23dJBw-o

The ad, like most of the negative ads, features a picture of Chuck Schumer. It says, "Democrats are trying to buy Georgia" and "Schumer spending $3 MILLION in Georgia for Jon Ossoff!"

Schumer has to know he is toxic in Georgia elections and New York isn't that popular either. Last week, Perdue finished with 49.7% of the vote and Ossoff 47.9%. While Perdue failed to clear 50% and thus we are going to a runoff, the odds were already in his favor.

[Sophie Scholl]

I'd heard about the trans woman winning her election before. I didn't know the incumbent she beat was the guy who started the anti trans toilet nonsense. Awesome.

Which transwoman? There were several who won.

My mistake. Thought it was just the one. This is a different one in a local Virginia election. So less funny.

Dunno about that local race here in Virginia, you'd have to be more specific.

I think you might be thinking of the race for Sheriff in Hamilton County, Ohio, where the woman who was fired by the previous sheriff for being a lesbian ran against his anointed successor and won.  That's not the case of a trans woman, though, as far as I know.

The race in question was for District 13 in Virginia's House of Delegates when Danica Roem defeated self-described "chief homophobe" and co-sponsor of the anti-trans bathroom bill Bob Marshall back in 2017. She won again in 2019 against Kelly McGinn.

[Valmy]

Schumer has to know he is toxic in Georgia elections and New York isn't that popular either. Last week, Perdue finished with 49.7% of the vote and Ossoff 47.9%. While Perdue failed to clear 50% and thus we are going to a runoff, the odds were already in his favor.

I think an anti-Donald Trump message, he will probably act like an idiot between now and January, and tie Loeffler and Perdue to him combined with messaging designed to get out and fire up the Democratic voters are the best bets. You cannot hide Chuck Schumer or convince Georgians somehow he doesn't exist.

Every single voter who showed up and voted for Joe Biden in Georgia has to show up for Ossoff and Warnock (and I believe Joe ran ahead of Ossoff for sure), a small percentage of the Trump voters have to stay home, and the third party voters have to stay home or break for Ossoff and Warnock. It is a long shot.

[Sheilbh]

I think an anti-Donald Trump message, he will probably act like an idiot between now and January, and tie Loeffler and Perdue to him combined with messaging designed to get out and fire up the Democratic voters are the best bets. You cannot hide Chuck Schumer or convince Georgians somehow he doesn't exist.

Every single voter who showed up and voted for Joe Biden in Georgia has to show up for Ossoff and Warnock, a small percentage of the Trump voters have to stay home, and the third party voters have to stay home or break for Ossoff and Warnock. It is a long shot.

Why run with an anti-Trump message when he's lost?

Arguably the bigger risk with Trump is that he keeps pushing a message that the electoral system is fraudulent and focusing attention of his supporters on his legal fights etc. That's probably not helpful messaging for the GOP in Georgia. They'd probably rather he was in Georgia focusing on Loeffler and Perdue and trying to increase turnout. He will be, at best, a distraction.

[Sophie Scholl]

I think the rallies will be held more to sell off Trump 2020 gear, MAGA items, and to help refill his coffers more than anything else. He has to maintain the air of doing them to keep up the fight against the "stolen" election though or no one will come and buy copies of Don Jr's book.