US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.

No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.

There was talk of flipping the Senate seat though.

[The Larch]

There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.

No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.

There was talk of flipping the Senate seat though.

Sure, for the senate race against Graham, but never for the presidential elections.

[Sheilbh]

Agreed. And looking at the (very incomplete) info on Open Secrets the DSCC didn't spend much money in SC.

As I say if this is more an issue of Dem donors being diffuse and easily distracted by shiny things rather than resource allocation by the party's campaigining wings themselves.

[alfred russel]

There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.

No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.

Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.

https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668

[The Larch]

There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.

No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.

Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.

https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668

That doesn't count as "a ton of talk". Betting odds is not political discourse.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't think I heard the possibility of SC flipping mentioned once.

[alfred russel]

There was a ton of talk this cycle about South Carolina flipping.

No there wasn't. There was talk about Texas and Georgia, but never S. Carolina.

Fuck you people can be difficult. The betting odds on October 6 actually gave Biden a 20% chance of winning.

https://www.ibtimes.com/will-republicans-win-south-carolina-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-tight-race-red-state-3054668

That doesn't count as "a ton of talk". Betting odds is not political discourse.

So you want me to find and post a ton of articles here? 

I mean, people were laying down money on a 20% chance of Biden winning and a poll at the end of September showed Biden within 1 point and you really don't think people were talking about it?

[Threviel]

What's happening in Alaska? They're not moving at all on the count.

[Tamas]

I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.

[Berkut]

Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*

I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.

I think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.

[Josquius]

What's happening in Alaska? They're not moving at all on the count.

IIRC they've one of those laws where postal votes have to be counted from some later date only?
Either that or they've realised nobody cares.

[Malthus]

Democrats: "We must move to the center to be palatable to voters!"
GOP: *doubles down on Trump crazy, still nearly wins, and probably retains senate majority*

I wish we could have a Trump Party, a Leftist/Progressive Party, and a Center-ist party that has elements from the left and right but needing support from one of the other two parties to accomplish their goals. That is what we seem to be firmly heading toward ideologically even if our system pretty much prevents it.

I think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.

I wish you guys had an actual Conservative party, and that Trumpists were a ridiculed fringe.

[alfred russel]

Fine:

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/04/biden-has-become-shockingly-competitive-in-south-carolina-analysis_partner/

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article246117830.html

538 gave Biden a 16 percent chance at the start of October and 10 percent at the end.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think degenerate gamblers making stupid bets should be used for political analysis.

Also they're normally looking for value.

We have loads of political gambling in this country - it's fully legal - and they have a worse record at predicting things than polls, models, forecasts, finger-in-the-wind predictions or bird entrails. I think they are the worst predictor because that's not the function they serve.

American news networks yet another example (as with our actors) of Americans looking more attractive and healthy 

I think one of the worst things about the radicalization of the right in the US has meant that the actual and real political divide in most of the country has been ignored, and right now it is basically Trump and Not Trump.

What's interesting is that part of Biden's success has been in consolidating the anti-Trump votes of the Libertarian Party (who still won votes, but far fewer than Johnson won), McMullin etc.

[Sheilbh]

Biden takes the lead in Pennsylvania