US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

It is not impossible I guess, Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King all are/were supposedly independent. I guess if they just continued to be Republicans in their caucus and just became some kind of independent label the Republicans might leave them alone in their states.

But they're just independents.

My point is if you're still in Trump's cabinet - you're endorsing this conduct. You could just step down, alternatively (and this would be more effective) step down with a joint statement. Similarly if you're in the Senate, particularly, you either threaten the thing that the Republican leadership cares about (so you tell McConnell you'll vote "no" on every judicial nominee) or you (ideally as a group with a joint statement of values) announce you're leaving the GOP, won't caucus with them etc until this is resolved - either way the GOP loses its majority on the things it really cares about which I think would force them into action.

In terms of elections I wouldn't worry (I think Romney and Collins would definitely win their states anyway). At a certain point the priority or focus should be more about can I stand behind this and share a common platform with this conduct on a personal/moral/ethical level or not. Everyone in the Senate is a millionaire, so it's not like they desperately need the job.

[Valmy]

I wouldn't be so sure. Lieberman is the only one to beat both a Democrat and a Republican in an election that I am aware of and that only happened because most of the Republicans voted for him as the lesser evil to the Democrat. And he ended up caucusing with the Democrats anyway.

I don't know if I see the Democrats in Maine jumping to Susan Collins to save her from a Republican. They wouldn't need to since that is a Democratic state. If the Republican/independent vote was split they would win.

Now Romney might be able to do it in Utah, I could see Democrats rallying to his cause against some more conservative Republican. But it is no sure thing.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know if I see the Democrats in Maine jumping to Susan Collins to save her from a Republican. They wouldn't need to since that is a Democratic state. If the Republican/independent vote was split they would win.

Maine has ranked voting. This year Trump won, I think, 43.5% of the vote and Collins still won over 50% of the first round vote. She would definitely do well enough to get to the ranking stage - I don't think anything could happen that would make Collins lose Maine

Now Romney might be able to do it in Utah, I could see Democrats rallying to his cause against some more conservative Republican. But it is no sure thing.

From everything I've read Romney is incredibly popular in Utah (and Trump isn't). In a three-way vote I'd think Romney was the favourite.

But again my point isn't really about the electoral viability of independents or a third party.

[Valmy]

Actually yeah Maine has that ranked choice voting. Collins would probably win no matter what party she was running on. Bull Moose in 2026!

I wish the whole country had that. That should be my fantasy Constitutional amendment in the other thread.

[Sheilbh]

And on the corrosiveness of this, Republicans have far more doubts about the electoral system than Democrats even for states Trump won:

[Valmy]

But again my point isn't really about the electoral viability of independents or a third party.

Yeah you want Susan Collins and Mitt Romney to take courageous stands and put country ahead of party. They both have flirted with that kind of stuff in the past but I don't see it becoming a committed relationship.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah you want Susan Collins and Mitt Romney to take courageous stands and put country ahead of party. They both have flirted with that kind of stuff in the past but I don't see it becoming a committed relationship.

I wouldn't focus on them - but they've got leverage and if they mean what they say they should use it. And I don't think they need to do it on a long-term basis - they could even say we'll vote no on all new nominees (because they're still going through Senate) until Trump concedes and starts the transition. These politicians and the GOP are not powerless - as I've said before this is as much, if not more, McConnell's party as it is Trump's. So threaten what they care about.

I thought the same about the Labour MPs who quit or otherwise made Corbyn's life difficult. It isn't enough to just anonymously brief journalists about how unhappy you are or how disgraceful x action is.

[FunkMonk]

Trump voters in 2016: "The electoral college system is good. Suck it up, libs!"

Trump voters in 2020: "The electoral college system is fundamentally broken and fraudulent, and we're going to prove it!"

[crazy canuck]

alency. The GOP is dangerous and must be stopped. I want them defeated and discredited.

I am aware that several different explanations for defunding the police have been given, naturally I find that confusing. However in the one example I have close to home it sure looks like it is just that: dramatically slashing the police budget.

Great, then stop saying stupid shit like this "Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police."

[Valmy]

Trump voters in 2016: "The electoral college system is good. Suck it up, libs!"

Trump voters in 2020: "The electoral college system is fundamentally broken and fraudulent, and we're going to prove it!"

I mean Trump called both elections fraudulent before they were even held and then somehow we are supposed to believe that was based on something. It is just kind of a moving target.

[Valmy]

Great, then stop saying stupid shit like this "Them going this extreme could cost them and we could take advantage if we didn't have our own nutcases parading around demanding we defund the police."

I don't see how one statement leads to another.

Anyway this is Languish. I will say stupid shit here I will not say elsewhere. I need to know how stupid it is before I say it someplace more significant.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The Left: Okay, we don't want to do anything with law enforcement.  Police can do whatever the fuck they want.

I mean we desperately need law enforcement reform and do things like end qualified immunity and we could have done those things, there is even public support for it. But somehow nothing ever gets done because...well nothing ever seems to ever get done on anything.

So many Democratic initiatives are popular with people willing to get behind them but we just don't do them and eventually they get hijacked and turn into mainstream issues. Florida voted for a $15 dollar minimum wage while voting Republican. When asked about this a voter responded that a $15 dollar minimum wage wasn't a progressive issue  which is kind of like saying improving shareholder value is not a corporate issue or overthrowing the Provisional Government is not a Bolshevik issue. Several red states passed drug legalization laws.

The Democrats haven't managed to touch either of those issues on a federal level. It's crazy. We have vote getting issues we just never do anything with any of them. We could have gotten some bipartisan support on some of it to.

The problem is, of course, that the President always ends up benefiting from anything anybody does in their term so even if the Democrats could have gotten a national increase the minimum wage or drug law reform or law enforcement reform the guy who would have signed them is Donald Trump and then he would have eagerly taken all the credit for it. Can't have that. And obviously the same problem would be there for popular Republican issues as they found out during the Clinton Administration.

Yeah the stuff you're talking about has nothing to do with politics. Politics isn't about issues. It's about creating a team (which is a complex step), and then rousing that team up as much as possible while trying to steal off team members from the other side, or alternatively make the other side's team members less prone to show up for game day. Democrats have a range of policies as there are a range of Democrats, some are really dumb, some are pretty smart. But what they lack is the cohesive organization to even play on this team based field I'm describing. After 2018, the Democrats largely just helped Trump run the country because they didn't abjectly block and attempt to implode the government literally over every single legislation point possible. Because of this the Republicans had to deal with very little real pain until Covid, which was a black swan event. The Dems then let Trump run multiple covid bail outs without pushing much pain into those bills for Republicans at all. We should have mandated election integrity laws and other major concessions from Trump to pass one dollar of covid stimulus.

The Democrats think they have an obligation to run the country, even when they don't control the actual organ of government that runs the country, and because of that they are ineffective in opposing a party like the GOP when it is in power. The only way the Dems can successfully fight the GOP in situations like we've had the last four years is to do things that hurt Republican voters as badly as possible. That is the only thing that is likely to get any meaningful movement from the GOP.

Once Biden is in President it's a different calculus because he will have a governing obligation, but a lot of the Dems problems derive from the fact they are an extremely ineffective opposition to the GOP holding power, and the GOP is a very effective opposition to Democrats holding power.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What do people think Biden should do?

So far his approach has been to basically let Trump get on with this and sort of him the rope to hang himself. That it's better for him to let Trump flail publicly, while he acts Presidential-elect and there's no upside in getting into a fight with Trump about this.

I thought that was the right approach and I still basically think it holds. But I'm not sure if he does actually need to change his strategy now?

I agree with statements I've heard to just let the certifications by Georgia (today the 20th), and Michigan and Pennsylvania (on Monday iirc) play out, all this performance art by the hacks that are his legal team aren't doing anything besides playing to Trump and the deluded 45% who aren't going to be swayed by anything Biden could do at this point anyway. And each days seems to be more cracks and defections (Romney and Sasse and Ernst in last day)

This 100%. Certification is what matters right now. Georgia has to certify today, then the Trump team can request a recount through Tuesday. I think Michigan and PA can certify Monday (PA doesn't have to, but can, and likely will.) Arizona and Nevada on the 30th, Wisconsin on Dec. 1st. I don't think Joe should continue changing what he's doing unless Trump is able to actually stop any of these certifications. Like when Raffensperger in Georgia certifies the result today, and we don't see a legal process through the end of next Friday that has succeeded in blocking that certification, then there's not much to worry about there. Come Monday if PA and MI are able to both certify then we've past that hurdle. Same for AZ/NV on the 30th. If anything, be it political or legal causes these deadlines to be missed that is when Biden needs to take action.

Now if it's just a Federal court taking a few days to sort something out in Georgia or Michigan, that's not a reason to get crazy, but obviously Biden's team would need to get involved in the legal process. Where I think you would need dramatic political action is if a State legislature shows serious signs of attempting to block electors or etc.

[Valmy]

Once Biden is in President it's a different calculus because he will have a governing obligation, but a lot of the Dems problems derive from the fact they are an extremely ineffective opposition to the GOP holding power, and the GOP is a very effective opposition to Democrats holding power.

Well I cannot argue much there.

[grumbler]

His (and your) point that there is an equivalency between people wanting to defund the police (and completely ignoring what that meant in terms of reforming the role police have) and destruction of your democracy the GOP is now engaged in is astounding.

I don't recall making this point.

Forget it.  He's rollin'.