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Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:26:01 AMHamas probably thinks they can engage in some ethnic cleansing and genocide after their Islamic brothers in Azerbaijan did the same..

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 07:25:15 AMWhat I don't get is this: Israel has one of the best intelligence gathering units in the world. Arguably second only to the USA. And they didn't see an attack of this magnitude? I believe they probably did, but let it happen, sort of like Coventry. i think they see these incursions as 1) Public sympathy for the state and 2) a reason to go ballistic (literally) on Hamas.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

QuoteAn Israeli soldier stands by the bodies of Israelis killed in the southern Israeli city of Sderot [Tsafrir Abayov/AP Photo]

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AMWhat are they hoping to accomplish out of this?

QuoteYair Wallach
@YairWallach
There are obvious parallels between the current attack and the 1973 war. In both cases, Arab leaders had reached out to Israeli leadership, and were rebuffed. Sadat to Golda's government, and Sinwar to Netanyahu (he even sent him a note in Hebrew)
In both cases, careful Arab military preparation was able to completely surprise an over-confident Israeli government and military.
But that's where the similarities end. 1973 was a war between militaries, and this time civilians will pay the highest price.
In 1973 there was a clear Egyptian calculus: a limited attack and achievement, leading to negotiations and full withdrawal from Sinai. This coincided with the shift from Soviet patronage to US one. Sadat took a risk, but the context was there to support it.
It is not clear to me what Hamas are hoping to achieve, Their position is extremely weak. The likely outcomes are either (1) Israeli re-occupation of Gaza  (2) prolonged bombing campaign. A political deal? With this Israeli govt? extremely unlikely.
Hamas were willing to settle for a mini-state in Gaza and a long term truce with Israel. That deal was on offer, but Israel wasn't interested. Better to keep Gaza as an open air prison forever - what's the worst they could do? Occasional rocket attack?
So that proved wrong. And what now? Remember that for large parts of this government, escalation is good. It allows them a pretext to attack Palestinians elsewhere. Retaliation attacks in the west bank, inside Israel, removal of villages, mass arrests. They'll do what they can
I don't buy the commentary that it's all about the Saudi deal. Everyone knew a major escalation was about to happen - Israeli measures in the last years led that way. Full on annexation, land grub, ethnic cleansing, breaking the status-quo in Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount
It looks like Hamas preferred it to be *their escalation*, rather than start with a popular Intifada in the West Bank. And even if they suffer badly, they still position themselves as the real Palestinian leadership for the next stage.
8/

Quote from: Caliga on October 07, 2023, 09:26:55 AMSigh.  Are people EVER going to stop trying to kill the Jews? :(

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:43:55 AMHezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 09:45:26 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:43:55 AMHezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:00:24 AMThis is the end of public political opposition to his coalition. The end of drama over his authoritarian reforms.

Quote"I want to say clearly, in a way that resonates from Gaza, via Beirut, to Tehran: The entire people of Israel are united," he says. "All Israel's citizens stand behind the security forces, and the government has the backing to charge a heavy, painful and effective price in order that an event like this is not repeated."

"There is no coalition and opposition now," Gantz adds, "just a single fist that will pound the enemy."

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 10:18:02 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 10:18:02 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 10:21:06 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 10:18:02 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

for hamas every jew living in 'Palestine' is one too many, and there's still one. So nothing has been accomplished yet.
Be less naive about that ideology

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:48:04 AM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 09:45:26 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:43:55 AMHezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Just checked and haven't seen this on any reputable sources.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 10:32:21 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 10:21:06 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 10:18:02 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 07:52:48 AM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 07, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AM:blink:
Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

for hamas every jew living in 'Palestine' is one too many, and there's still one. So nothing has been accomplished yet.
Be less naive about that ideology

You're the naiive one here. You seem to think Hamas are comic book villains who seriously believe they can actually beat Israel in a war and chuck all the Jews into the sea, rather than just the rulers of a bantustan in the corner of the country.
There's absolutely no way they actually think they can get any ethnic cleansing of land outside gaza outside of this.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 10:44:56 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:48:04 AM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 09:45:26 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 09:43:55 AMHezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Just checked and haven't seen this on any reputable sources.

Check again.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 11:11:47 AMIsrael is calling up "hundreds of thousands". Are they going to go in full force to Gaza? Deter Hezbollah? Or do getting ready for incoming Hezbollah attacks?

Quote from: Jacob on October 07, 2023, 12:03:28 PMJust awful. This is terrible for the victims, and for future victims.

There are lots of things I don't understand about what happened and what the future holds.

What did Hamas try to achieve with this attack? I mean, beyond the obvious - to strike a terrible blow against the state of Israel and hurt Israelis. What do they expect to happen next? What their understanding of the strategic landscape, and how do they think this action will change it? How do they hope their actions will affect that landscape?

Who are the decision makers who pushed this forward? Is this driven by a grouping within Hamas trying to hang on to internal power in face of rivals by escalating and creating a crisis? Are they acting on instructions from internal sponsors, and if so what is that sponsor trying to achieve? Is it literally an attempt to conduct national suicide in a broadbased fit of eschatological religious fervour? Did they look at the strategical landscape and conclude that they were losing and this is a rational but high risk attempt at rearranging the pieces on the board somehow (and it what way)? Do they think that Putin is about to kick off WWIII and this is their play in that chaos? What did hope to achieve?

Is there one Putin-like individual who holds the power to organize this, or is it consensus based?

And what did they tell the various foot-soldiers carrying out the attack? Obviously "this will really hurt them and they deserve it", but was there some sort of "and after we hit them, this will happen" and if so what is that thing?

And on the other side... obviously Israel is going to unite and enact vengeance on the perpetrators. I realize this is still early times for Israel - as a government and as a people  they'll have to process the events and formulate a response - but what are they going to do? Where and how are they going to respond? What is going to provide enough of a sense of justice? Enough of a sense of security? What is the Israeli theory of victory going to be?

If any of you have thoughts on that - or links to credible analysts on this - please share.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 12:27:13 PMThere's video of Palestinians hauling away Israeli women and children.  The men were shouting a word that ISIS used for sex slaves.

QuoteThe Palestinian people deserve better than this.

We will not bring about peace by ignoring the reality of Israeli occupation, documented by Amnesty, Human Rights Watch, the UN, B'Tselem and many more.

End apartheid. Defend human rights. Free Palestine.

QuoteThey're not comic book villains, they're actual villains who sincerely believe that it's their mission to eradicate the state of Israel and the jews living there. And after that: elsewhere.
That ideology is quite clear as to what the end goal for the world is.
Intent matters, regardless of wether or not the means are there.
So stop being an apologist for Evil.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 10:47:38 AMTyr, Corbyn is gone.  You don't have to defend Hamas anymore.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 07, 2023, 01:16:35 PMI agree with a lot of that.

I also think part of this - and part of why this is such a strategic shock to Israel - is that Israel had largely nullified the threat from Hamas. Gaza was contained, they could fire a few rockets if they wanted and even in that context Iron Dome broadly protected them. Plus from what I understand there was confidence that Israel's intelligence was very good on what Hamas would do. I think, and I could be wrong on this, that that secure context is part of why Israeli politics has gone as it has - secure societies can afford to have massive confrontations over core constitutional issues, they can afford to send the IDF to mainly guard existing and growing settlements, they can pander more and more to ultra-Orthodox parties with broad religious draft exemptions etc.

I could be wrong but I wonder if the response may be key to the future of Israeli politics. If he goes down the national unity route and security (and service) becomes a key issue again in a way it hasn't in recent years then that may well sideline the more extreme elements in Netanyahu's coalition. If not then you have very extreme parts of that coalition who even before today advocated what amounts to ethnic cleansing, and groups who represent those with draft exemptions in the IDF and I think it might head in quite a compustible (and bad) way.

From a Hamas pov I think that "nullification" created a challenge. If they intended to continue they needed an ability to attack Israel that they couldn't just swat away. There have been the outrages against civilians but I almost wonder if as shocking to the Israeli context will be the border posts overrun, IDF equipment stolen - all in core, 1948 Israeli territory (not Golan, Sinai, West Bank settlements etc) from a threat they thought they'd basically managed. I think that's why Hezbollah weren't aware is precisely because Hamas needed surprise. It's almost existential - if your basis for existing is fighting Israel and Israel has basically penned you in and developed a shield that blocks attacks, then you either adapt or basically stop existing/cede your role. Perhaps part of it is also in a way an "action of the deed" thing: no matter how secure Israel feels, it isn't - Hamas (and others) will keep working on new ways to attack. It is probably also something that's going to be very difficult to repeat - though I imagine they're not unprepared in Gaza for retaliation which they will expect to be more than just a few airstrikes back.

QuotePrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposes that opposition parties Yesh Atid and National Unity enter an emergency government following Hamas's devastating surprise attack Saturday morning.

Netanyahu makes the offer during a meeting with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and National Unity party leader Benny Gantz held earlier today, saying such a government would be the same in format as the Levi Eshkol government then-opposition leader Menachem Begin joined before the Six Day War in 1967.

Gantz says he is considering entering such a government for the duration of the war but insists that government would "deal with security challenges alone" and in a manner that would allow "substantive partnership and influence over decision-making in relevant forums" for his party.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 01:49:19 PMNational Unity Government is being formed:

Quote'Severe hostage situation' in two places in southern Israel

Israeli army spokesman Richard Hecht has given reporters an update on the situation in southern Israel.

Fighting is still going on at 22 separate locations on Israeli territory after Hamas militants attacked early on Saturday.

He says a "severe hostage situation" is going on at Kibbutz Be'eri and Ofakim. Earlier, we reported that Hamas militants have taken both Israeli soldiers and civilians hostage, in an unprecedented situation.

Israeli media report that Hamas militants are still fighting the army at the police station in Sderot. However, a number of other towns and communities have been secured, reports say.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 05:50:32 AMTraditional Islamic extremist shit of trying to bring on such a harsh Israeli response it brings the population onto their side/moves forward the apocalyptic war of civilizations?

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 07, 2023, 02:31:55 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 01:49:19 PMNational Unity Government is being formed:

I think that's good and agree with Gantz's reservation of what that means.

But the more I read about what happened at different points the more I think that after a period of national unity and resolve - there are going to be very, very serious questions about how this happened for Netanyahu's government

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 07, 2023, 03:17:54 PMIt looks like Hamas is willing to sacrifice Gaza and perhaps themselves in order to prevent Saudi Arabia from regularizing its relationship with Israel.  And as a side effect, I suppose, create chaos.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 02:33:51 PMNetanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 01:37:16 PM

QuoteThey're not comic book villains, they're actual villains who sincerely believe that it's their mission to eradicate the state of Israel and the jews living there. And after that: elsewhere.
That ideology is quite clear as to what the end goal for the world is.
Intent matters, regardless of wether or not the means are there.
So stop being an apologist for Evil.

 :lmfao:
OK. Sure. Let's say you're right and they really are as stupid as you think they are.

How then did they stay in power this long? How did they get there in the first place?

This kind of dissonance in the ignorant far right view of the world is so amazing. Your enemies are simultaneously impure, stupid and weak... Yet a massive massive threat that need to be tackled far more strongly than any of the corrupt weaklings of the world today are able to.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 10:47:38 AMTyr, Corbyn is gone.  You don't have to defend Hamas anymore.

Raz, Trump is gone. You don't need to pretend hostile forces are simpletons anymore.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 07, 2023, 03:25:02 PMOn security failure there's the intelligence side and I think there was an element of hubris around Iron Dome plus their intelligence.

But the thing I'm seeing Israelis point to is that there was only a skeleton force in Southern Israel and around Gaza because most of the IDF was deployed to the West Bank. From what I've seen that's being tied very much to Netanyahu and in particular his extreme parts of his coalition. I've also seen Israelis absolutely raging about videos of ultra-Orthodox dancing in the streets today as part of the holidays despite what's happened and the state of emergency - particularly as they also have exemptions from the national call up/mobilisation.

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 04:16:05 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 02:33:51 PMNetanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

to where?

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 05:23:48 PMThe taking of hostages is unusual for Hamas, if that's what they are doing. I guess human shields? Would IDF dare bomb targets with Israelis in them?

QuoteOn October 18, 2011, captured IDF tank gunner Gilad Shalit, captured by the Palestinian militant organization Hamas in 2006, was released in exchange for 1027 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

Quote from: PJL on October 07, 2023, 05:04:41 AMMost likely it will end up with the depopulation and obliteration of the Gaza Strip.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 04:16:05 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 02:33:51 PMNetanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

to where?

I wondered the same—I guess into the sea?

Quote from: Caliga on October 07, 2023, 07:03:55 PMI mean, what's he supposed to say... "Gaza residents, prepare to die?"

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 04:16:05 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 02:33:51 PMNetanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

to where?

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 04:17:54 PMHamas got in power because Palestinians hate Jews.  Killing Jews is very popular with Palestinians and Hamas came to power in an election.  You don't need to come up with some sort of grand strategy on why Hamas is doing this.  Killing Jews is their default.  They just went big this time.

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 11:51:30 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 04:17:54 PMHamas got in power because Palestinians hate Jews.  Killing Jews is very popular with Palestinians and Hamas came to power in an election.  You don't need to come up with some sort of grand strategy on why Hamas is doing this.  Killing Jews is their default.  They just went big this time.

And in killing a few hundred Jews today they lose their ability to keep killing Jews ever again in the future.

No. I find it hard to believe that a majority of the Palestinian population value just one more dead Jew over their own fundamental survival.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 12:01:15 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 07, 2023, 11:51:30 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 07, 2023, 04:17:54 PMHamas got in power because Palestinians hate Jews.  Killing Jews is very popular with Palestinians and Hamas came to power in an election.  You don't need to come up with some sort of grand strategy on why Hamas is doing this.  Killing Jews is their default.  They just went big this time.

And in killing a few hundred Jews today they lose their ability to keep killing Jews ever again in the future.

No. I find it hard to believe that a majority of the Palestinian population value just one more dead Jew over their own fundamental survival.

They tie bombs around their chests and set them off in crowded places full of Jews.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 03:08:41 AMYeah, all the Palestinians need to do to stop war is stop demanding an ethnic cleansing and then go to the bargaining table. All the Israelis need to do is mass suicide.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 03:15:22 AMOK. That's already done. So... How about that peace settlement and Israeli withdrawal then?

QuoteThis morning, on Shabbat and a holiday, Hamas invaded Israeli territory and murdered innocent citizens including children and the elderly. Hamas has started a brutal and evil war.

We will be victorious in this war despite an unbearable price. This is a very difficult day for all of us.

Hamas wants to murder us all. This is an enemy that murders children and mothers in their homes, in their beds, an enemy that abducts the elderly, children and young women, that slaughters and massacres our citizens, including children, who simply went out to enjoy the holiday.

What happened today is unprecedented in Israel – and I will see to it that it does not happen again. The entire government is behind this decision.

The IDF will immediately use all its strength to destroy Hamas's capabilities. We will destroy them and we will forcefully avenge this dark day that they have forced on the State of Israel and its citizens. As Bialik wrote: 'Revenge for the blood of a little child has yet been devised by Satan'.

All of the places which Hamas is deployed, hiding and operating in, that wicked city, we will turn them into rubble.

I say to the residents of Gaza: Leave now because we will operate forcefully everywhere.

At this hour, the IDF is clearing the terrorists out of the last communities. They are going community by community, house by house, and are restoring our control.

I embrace and send heartfelt condolences to the bereaved families whose loved ones were murdered today in cold blood and endless brutality.

We are all praying for the well-being of the wounded and all those who are being held hostage. I say to Hamas: You are responsible for their well-being. Israel will settle accounts with anyone who harms one hair on their heads.

I appeal to the residents of the south: We all stand alongside you. We are all proud of your heroism and your fighting.

To our beloved IDF soldiers, police officers and security forces personnel, remember that you are the continuation of the heroes of the Jewish people, of Joshua, Judah Maccabee and the heroes of 1948 and of all of Israel's wars. You are now fighting for the home and future of us all. We are all with you. We all love you. We all salute you.

To the medical and rescue teams, and the many volunteers who came out in force today in a long list of places, the people of Israel salute you. With your spirit, we will overcome our enemies.

Today, I spoke with US President Biden and with other world leaders in order to ensure freedom of action for Israel in the continuation of the campaign. I thank President Biden for his strong and clear words. I thank the President of France, the Prime Minister of Great Britain and many other leaders for their unreserved support for Israel.

I now appeal to all citizens of Israel:

We stand together in this campaign.

This war will take time. It will be difficult. Challenging days are ahead of us. However, I can promise one thing: With the help of G-d, the forces that we all have in common and our faith in the Eternal One of Israel, we will win.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 08, 2023, 03:19:23 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 03:15:22 AMOK. That's already done. So... How about that peace settlement and Israeli withdrawal then?

It's been a long time since this was a topic and I might have missed something big, but doesn't the Hamas charter still call for the elimination of Israel?

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:07:43 AMFatah are the legitimate (well. Not really. But more than Hamas) and majority Palestinian government. They gave up violence and turned to negotiation a while ago. For seemingly no benefit.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 08, 2023, 04:36:30 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:07:43 AMFatah are the legitimate (well. Not really. But more than Hamas) and majority Palestinian government. They gave up violence and turned to negotiation a while ago. For seemingly no benefit.

It would be nice if you put in all the qualifiers before I challenged you on it.  Like if you had qualified your last sentence to include a quasi government and limited autonomy.

That aside, you do touch on my preferred fix: the three state solution.  Independent West Bank, Israel, and open air Hamas prison.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:41:04 AMThrevial said Palestinians.

QuoteThat would be a workable stopgap. Though lots of innocent people in Gaza. Also has the vital problem of Israel and it's settlers.

Quote from: Sophie Scholl on October 08, 2023, 01:48:33 AMThe whole situation is an absolute tragedy. My personal position is more or less in agreement with Hasan Piker's, though.  :(
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Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 03:08:41 AMYeah, all the Palestinians need to do to stop war is stop demanding an ethnic cleansing and then go to the bargaining table. All the Israelis need to do is mass suicide.

Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2023, 06:51:50 AM

Quote from: Sophie Scholl on October 08, 2023, 01:48:33 AMThe whole situation is an absolute tragedy. My personal position is more or less in agreement with Hasan Piker's, though.  :(
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There were civilians gunned down where they stood, many of them captured. Hard for me to stomach "well yeah, but" stance on this one, no matter how I have been dismayed to see Israel going down the same gutters every other country in then region long entered.

What do you see as the course of action for Israel to take to end this conflict (sine assume that is the single side you say holds all respnisibilty for whatever happens)? Keeping in mind that the official stated goal of Hamas is the destruction of the state of Israel.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 08, 2023, 07:10:36 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 03:08:41 AMYeah, all the Palestinians need to do to stop war is stop demanding an ethnic cleansing and then go to the bargaining table. All the Israelis need to do is mass suicide.

Some posters make this mistake characterizing the acts of Hamas as being the acts of all Palestinians.

Fact is that the majority of Palestinians have been trying for decades to establish some form of coexistence with the state of Israel. There have also been many Israelis attempting to do the same thing. A Prime Minister of Israel was assassinated for trying to do that very thing. Assassinated by the same right wing extremists that now support the present Israeli Prime Minister.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 03:08:41 AMYeah, all the Palestinians need to do to stop war is stop demanding an ethnic cleansing and then go to the bargaining table. All the Israelis need to do is mass suicide.

QuoteOf course, but then this becomes the usual question of how much a populace is responsible for the actions of the government they tolerate above themselves. I do not think Palestinians are more collectively responsible for Hamas than Israelis are for their violent settlers etc, but also I can't really expect Israel to take risks byimiting their response against Hamas in order to spare the population sustaining Hamas.

QuoteHamas attacks Israel
Why now and what next?
Lawrence Freedman
Oct 8

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The Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, with a captured Israeli tank, near the Israel/Gaza border. (Photo by Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images).

Saturday's terrifying attacks on Israel involved levels of planning, orchestration and audacity that meant it had been under preparation for some time. It was not an angry and impetuous response to recent events, such as settlers storming the Al Aqsa Mosque or the Israel-Saudi dialogue, other than that these events are the latest in a series that convinced Hamas that it was time to shock and shake Israel. The date of 7 October, almost fifty years after the last time that Israel suffered a similar blow will have been ringed for some time. Hamas understands the symbolism.

The easy and obvious comparison between the two attacks is that once again Israel has been caught by surprise. The comparisons can be taken further. The Israelis eventually won the 1973 Yom Kippur War by defeating both the Egyptian and Syrian armies, but it didn't feel like a victory. The human costs were high and showed that the country was still vulnerable, despite the stunning victories in the 1967 war. Arab armies had been dismissed as ineffectual: now they showed that with better weapons and tactics they were still capable of inflicting heavy blows on Israel, and could do so again. The Israeli people took the view was that if only there had been a better appreciation of the danger all this could have been avoided. The government of the day was eventually punished in the polls for the error.

While I am always wary of predicting the course of a war, we can be reasonably sure of one thing. The political backlash within Israel will be harsh and will go beyond inquiries into the intelligence failure. Not yet, for the country will come together as the fighting continues and partisan differences will be put aside. But once the dust settles. The shift is already taking place as opposition parties have been offered membership of an emergency coalition by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who will want the widest possible support for the next steps. According to Yair Lapid, Netanyahu recognises that 'with the current extreme and dysfunctional security cabinet, he can't manage a war. Israel needs to be led by a professional, experienced, and responsible government.' The condition will be to remove the most controversial and disruptive members of his coalition, notably Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-rightist who has been busy aggravating relations with the Palestinians without preparing for the consequences.

Not only has the coalition's policies on judicial reform left Israeli society deeply divided, something of which Hamas will have been well aware, but also its active support of extremist groups stirring up trouble in the West Bank and Jerusalem meant that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) were diverted to protect them. This is one explanation for the empty guard posts and thin lines of defence on the border with Gaza, which affected the ability to respond to the attacks.

The scale and character of these attacks are more limited and terroristic than the canal crossing and armoured thrusts of 1973. Also, unlike 1973, when Israel could not focus on Egyptian forces until it had dealt with the more immediate threat from Syria, so far Israel is fighting just one enemy. It must be aware that this can change, either with an upsurge of violence in the West Bank or else Hezbollah deciding to join the war from Lebanon, with even more deadly consequences.

War and Diplomacy

There is another difference. The 1973 War was a prelude to diplomacy. Up to then all Arab governments had refused to accept Israel's right to exist and rejected proposals for direct negotiations. Egypt's President Anwar Sadat wanted to change that and used the boost to his prestige provided by the first successful days of the war to enter the process that culminated in a peace treaty with Israel, followed, sadly, by his assassination. The current war was preceded by significant negotiations and breakthroughs in Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations, especially with the Gulf states. The latest effort began under the Trump administration, leading to the 'Abraham Accords' (between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco) and has recently been moving on to what Israelis see as the great prize of normal relations with Saudi Arabia. This has been moving forward in recent days, with the US trying to broker a deal (and get the Saudis to help lower the oil price). Netanyahu told the UN in September that the two countries were on 'the cusp' of an agreement. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman also confirmed that 'every day we get closer.'

Palestinians have watched this with dismay because they feel that they are being abandoned by Arab governments keen to take advantage of the high-tech Israeli economy. In the past some sort of peace initiative was seen as precondition for any Saudi move. The Crown Prince continues to insist that the Palestinian issue has not been forgotten, but the Palestinians have few friends in the region, however popular their cause is among ordinary people. The attacks were planned before the latest stage in the Saudi-Israel dialogue. It is possible, however, that as this normalisation process has been underway for some time one motive was to derail it.

The Saudi response thus far has been to call for an immediate halt to escalating violence and noted that it had repeatedly warned that Israel's ongoing occupation of Gaza would propel further violence. Its position remains that a 'two-state solution' is the best option, and that is the view of most of the international community.

The last serious attempt at negotiations to this end, however, was at the close of the Clinton Administration in 2000. The failure of those talks, over the division of Jerusalem and the extent of a Palestinian right to return, was followed by the 'Second Intifada', which included bombs in Israeli cities. This had the effect of pushing Israel to the right and undermining its peace movement. There have been occasional attempts to revive the process, at least with the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank, led by the ailing Mahmoud Abbas. At times there has been cooperation between the Israeli and Palestinian security forces to stabilise the situation. But relations, never good, have deteriorated even more as the Israeli government backed the hardline settler movement. Hamas, already in control of its own territory, remains rejectionist, with no interest in a negotiation even if that was on offer.

Containing Hamas

Once the Second Intifada was defeated, the then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon took a bold step. He concluded that the best way to cope with the Gaza Strip was to withdraw all Israelis from their settlements and put up a fence, and hope that if it left the Palestinians there alone that would be reciprocated. That did not happen. In 2006 Hamas won elections in Gaza and soon consolidated its hold on the territory, pushing out Abbas's Fatah group. It saw the territory as a base from which it could prepare for a final clash with Israel, and was soon accumulating weapons, including, with Iranian help, rockets.

Every time attacks were launched from the area Israel hit back. These armed skirmishes reflected frustration at the conditions in which the population was living and Hamas's determination to show that they were not cowed. In response Israel took the view that it dare not show any weakness. This involved over the years a range of measures, from assassinating Hamas's leaders and bomb-makers, to striking directly at the camps of its fighters.

Occasionally this meant taking the fight to Hamas strongholds in Gaza. For over a decade now, whatever the provocation, the IDF has wished to avoid that. Once it is in hostile territory its troops become vulnerable to ambushes as they try to root out fighters who merge easily with the local population. Experience warned that once these territories are entered, other than for a quick raid with a specific objective, it can be very hard to get out again and it is unlikely that much would be achieved.

It has therefore come to rely more on defensive and punitive measures. In 2014, in an effort to get the air and sea blockade on Gaza lifted, Hamas launched rocket attacks into Israel, while Israel demonstrated the quality of its intelligence by finding and destroying over 30 tunnels. These had been used for both smuggling and as potential routes under the fence through which attacks might be mounted on Israeli communities. Although Hamas fired off thousands of rockets its attacks were blunted by the impressive Iron Dome air defence system.

Thereafter the combination of an improved fence, air defences, and the precision strikes of the air force in taking out Hamas's assets in Gaza, was seen as being sufficient to blunt the threat without taking the risks and anguish of trying to occupy the land. Meanwhile Gaza suffered under a blockade, backed by Egypt, that restricted the import of any goods, including electronic and computer equipment, that could be used to make weapons while preventing people from leaving the territory.

Rather than 'solving' the Hamas problem, whether by military or political means, it could only be contained. There were demonstrations and protests along the fence but nothing that seemed unmanageable. As Seth Franzen noted

QuoteHamas in Gaza appeared isolated, unable to even get more funds from the usual sources, such as Qatar. With Israeli normalization agreements growing in the region, Hamas seemed to present an outdated ideology living in the past.

Yet there were signs of increasing tensions. The junior faction in Gaza – Islamic Jihad – launched a barrage of rockets in May, followed by a targeted Israeli strike that killed three of its leaders. This time Hamas stood back. Egypt and the UN arranged a cease-fire. In July Israeli forces entered Jenin on the West Bank, with the claimed objective of taking out Palestinian militants. This involved hundreds of ground troops and air strikes. Then last month there were clashes close to the Gazan fence, as Palestinians fought with Israeli forces. Last week, Israeli settlers entered the al Aqsa complex in East Jerusalem, apparently helped by Israeli police, to mark the festival of Sukkot, provoking Arab anger. (It was a visit to this mosque by Ariel Sharon in 2000 that helped spark the Second Intifada).

What Next?

Against a backdrop of growing Palestinian frustration and anger containment became more of a challenge. Hamas was working out how to breach Israel's defences. It had long had its rockets as a means of taking the war to Israel but their impact was neutralized by the Iron Dome. On Saturday it launched hundreds simultaneously so that, at least temporarily, it overwhelmed the Iron Dome and some rockets hit targets deep into Israel. More seriously it breached the fence with bulldozers, jumped over it with paragliders and went round it by sea. Many of these moves were thwarted but enough of the first wave were successful to allow border posts to be overrun, hostages taken, and random civilians killed when militants came upon them. Although the operations inside Israel should soon be over, the murder of pensioners and the desecration of bodies will add to pressure on the Israeli government to exact retribution.

Israel is already hurting Hamas back with air strikes attacking infrastructure. More significantly Gaza is being deprived of much of its electricity and water supplies, and its internet has been hit. IDF Chief Spokesman Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari told a press conference that airstrikes 'would significantly intensify and would eliminate all Hamas terror infrastructure, all houses of terror commanders, and all symbols of Hamas' rule.' But in the end these are buildings, and new buildings can always be found, and for that matter new fighters and leaders.

It has also called up reservists and appears to be preparing to once again re-enter Gaza. The pressure for it to do so will be considerable, but there are also reasons for caution.

First, Hamas will be prepared. This will be a tough fight. Even a limited incursion could be costly.

Second, the IDF neither has the capacity nor the staying power to take control of Gaza. This remains a territory of 2 million people, and as they have nowhere else to go, they will stay, still angry.

Third, for Israel the greatest danger is that the conflict spreads, stretching the IDF, and the Iron Dome, even more. The Lebanese group Hezbollah has praised the operation, and linked it to attempts by Arab governments to improve relations with Israel. According to its leader Hassan Nasrallah

Quote'It sends a message to the Arab and Islamic world, and the international community as a whole, especially those seeking normalization with this enemy, that the Palestinian cause is an everlasting one, alive until victory and liberation.'

I presume that if Hezbollah was part of the plan they would have attacked at the same time to maximise the impact. Iran supports both groups, and it will be considering how much a wider war would complicate its own attempts to normalise relations with the Gulf Arabs. If the fighting drags on, and the images turn to those of Israeli strikes against Gaza, the pressures for Hezbollah to get involved with grow. Hezbollah has already made a gesture by sending rockets and shells against three Israeli positions in the contested Mount Dov region on the border with Lebanon. Isreal responded with artillery and a drone strike. Similarly with the West Bank. Abbas has observed that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves, without going further, but there must be a risk, whether or not he wills it, of freelance action against Israeli settlers, and for that matter by settler groups against Palestinians.

Fourth, what about the fate of the 100 hostages taken by Hamas and Islamic Jihad (which has also been playing an active role in the attacks)? There was little pattern to the hostage taking (15 Thais are reportedly being held) and some appear to have been captured and held by Palestinian civilians. This issue is going to weigh heavily on Israeli calculations.

As for political objectives, the leader of Hamas's military wing, Muhammad Deif, has said no more than the 'operation' was launched so that 'the enemy will understand that the time of their rampaging without accountability has ended. 'It has also been described as being  'in defence of the Aqsa mosque.' Netanyahu has described Israel's objectives as follows:

Quote'Our first goal is primarily to clear the territory of the enemy forces that have entered and restore security and calm to the settlements that have been attacked. The second goal, concurrently, is to exact a heavy price from the enemy, even in the Gaza Strip. The third goal is to fortify other areas so no one mistakenly joins this war.'

If Israel wants to contain the conflict it needs to get it over as soon as possible. For the same reason it will serve Hamas best if it can be kept going, raising emotions throughout the region.

Israel, having concluded that it was secure because it had found ways to contain the Palestinians and then largely ignore them, now discovers that this is not so easy. The international attention these events have gained, and the dangers if the violence continues, may encourage new diplomatic initiatives – the Security Council will meet while US Secretary of State has been in touch with all interested parties other than Hamas - but with so much else going on this is not a propitious time. Perhaps Israel's new friends in the Gulf will identify a way forward, as the Saudis have tried to do in the past. Perhaps the shock of this latest round of fighting will encourage fresh thinking. It is not as if the history lacks examples of attempts to ease the conflict, some of which made progress. 

Local initiatives are more likely. It is hard to see how the hostages can be released safely by a military operation. The Wall Street Journal reports that Egypt has already been asked by Israel to mediate. Egypt was involved with talks underway since May 2021 with Qatar and Hamas (in which Israel has had an input). These were about rebuilding Gaza after past fighting and easing the blockade, in return for a cease-fire. According to Haaretz, they broke down a month ago, when instead of more aid Qatar's representative in Gaza conveyed only Israel's warnings against any escalation. These could be revived, although even if a cease-fire now with an easing of the blockade, without Hamas being weakened for the future, would be seen as a defeat for Israel. But if we look back again to 1975 the long-term impact on Israel lay as much in how the fighting started as in how it ended. Being caught out by the first blow was a psychological victory for its adversary and the effects lingered.

Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2023, 09:24:16 AMI am afraid ignoring hostages is the right approach. Similarly how Russia took the horrible plunge at Beslan to ignore hostages in that school. It ended similar raids by the Chechens.

Quote from: Tamas on October 08, 2023, 09:24:16 AMI am afraid ignoring hostages is the right approach. Similarly how Russia took the horrible plunge at Beslan to ignore hostages in that school. It ended similar raids by the Chechens.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:07:43 AM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 08, 2023, 03:19:23 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 03:15:22 AMOK. That's already done. So... How about that peace settlement and Israeli withdrawal then?

It's been a long time since this was a topic and I might have missed something big, but doesn't the Hamas charter still call for the elimination of Israel?

Fatah are the legitimate (well. Not really. But more than Hamas) and majority Palestinian government. They gave up violence and turned to negotiation a while ago. For seemingly no benefit.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 09:46:13 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:07:43 AM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 08, 2023, 03:19:23 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 03:15:22 AMOK. That's already done. So... How about that peace settlement and Israeli withdrawal then?

It's been a long time since this was a topic and I might have missed something big, but doesn't the Hamas charter still call for the elimination of Israel?

Fatah are the legitimate (well. Not really. But more than Hamas) and majority Palestinian government. They gave up violence and turned to negotiation a while ago. For seemingly no benefit.

Fatah hasn't really given up violence and they are deeply unpopular.  Hamas is much more popular and better represents the Palestinian people.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 09:58:08 AMThis is just such a clusterfuck.

There really is no good options for an average Palestinian, whether in Gaza or the West Bank. Their leaders are corrupt, Israel is moving in an extremist direction and the other Arab states have turned their back on them. I can understand the frustration that fuels the support for Hamas and extremism.

Likewise the regular secularised leftist Israelis, they are slowly being pressured by demographics into irrelevance.

It just seems like the peace movements in the 90's was such a missed opportunity that will not come back for generations. Now the extremists have lots of influence on both sides and the moderates are losing ground all the time.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 08, 2023, 03:19:23 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 03:15:22 AMOK. That's already done. So... How about that peace settlement and Israeli withdrawal then?

It's been a long time since this was a topic and I might have missed something big, but doesn't the Hamas charter still call for the elimination of Israel?

QuoteThe Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up. Neither a single Arab country nor all Arab countries, neither any king or president, nor all the kings and presidents, neither any organization nor all of them, be they Palestinian or Arab, possess the right to do that. Palestine is an Islamic Waqf land consecrated for Moslem generations until Judgement Day. This being so, who could claim to have the right to represent Moslem generations till Judgement Day?

This is the law governing the land of Palestine in the Islamic Sharia (law) and the same goes for any land the Moslems have conquered by force, because during the times of (Islamic) conquests, the Moslems consecrated these lands to Moslem generations till the Day of Judgement.

QuoteThe Islamic Resistance Movement is a humanistic movement. It takes care of human rights and is guided by Islamic tolerance when dealing with the followers of other religions. It does not antagonize anyone of them except if it is antagonized by it or stands in its way to hamper its moves and waste its efforts.

Under the wing of Islam, it is possible for the followers of the three religions - Islam, Christianity and Judaism - to coexist in peace and quiet with each other. Peace and quiet would not be possible except under the wing of Islam. Past and present history are the best witness to that.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 09:58:08 AMIt just seems like the peace movements in the 90's was such a missed opportunity that will not come back for generations. Now the extremists have lots of influence on both sides and the moderates are losing ground all the time.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 08, 2023, 09:18:32 AMI suspect actually entering Gaza will be very difficult.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 09:58:08 AMIt just seems like the peace movements in the 90's was such a missed opportunity that will not come back for generations. Now the extremists have lots of influence on both sides and the moderates are losing ground all the time.

Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2023, 10:40:21 AMWhat is the message in all those "there is no perfect response to apartheid" arguments?  Any response is going to be imperfect, so we should accept wholesale slaughter of Israeli communities?  Is it possible that if Israelis weren't overwhelmingly murdered when under Arab control, ever since the time they were allowed to be expelled mostly alive in 1948, that there would be less impetus and support to create open air prisons?

It is true that the likes of Hamas are not calling for the murder of all Israelis, only the destruction of Israel.  However, Hamas can still do things it doesn't call for, and if after this week it isn't obvious to you what it would do with Israelis if Israel ceased to exist, then frankly I just don't think you care.

QuoteGermany's development minister says her country will review its aid for the Palestinian areas following the attack by Hamas on Israel.

The development ministry says Germany does not finance the Palestinian Authority directly, but a total of 250 million euros ($265 million) is currently pledged in German aid –- half of that for bilateral projects via Germany's overseas aid agency and development bank, and the other half for the UN agency for the Palestinians, UNRWA.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 10:33:09 AMWill largely disagree here. You can't really harden your defenses like that in a modern war when the enemy has aerial superiority. E.g. in Ukraine the Russian front is solidified because Ukraine's only viable option is to advance, without air superiority, over mine fields. IDF has absolute aerial superiority over all of Gaza, if they want to enter they will and they will open up significant movement corridors with heavy aerial bombing / support, and they will use armor as the tip of the spear, which is hard to take out with insurgent weapons in urban combat.

The bigger issue is if the IDF goes into Gaza, what does it plan to do there, and if it plans to stay it now has a hostile military occupation to run over ~2m people which is hugely manpower intensive. And when such an occupation is running you will have lots of "ground level" interaction with IDF soldiers and Gazan civilians, lots of incidents of insurgents attacking IDF, IDF counterattacking, lots of Gazan civilians dead in the cross fire (similar to our occupation of the larger Iraqi cities in the 2000s.)

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 10:33:09 AMThe bigger issue is if the IDF goes into Gaza, what does it plan to do there, and if it plans to stay it now has a hostile military occupation to run over ~2m people which is hugely manpower intensive. And when such an occupation is running you will have lots of "ground level" interaction with IDF soldiers and Gazan civilians, lots of incidents of insurgents attacking IDF, IDF counterattacking, lots of Gazan civilians dead in the cross fire (similar to our occupation of the larger Iraqi cities in the 2000s.)

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 11:15:33 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 10:33:09 AMThe bigger issue is if the IDF goes into Gaza, what does it plan to do there, and if it plans to stay it now has a hostile military occupation to run over ~2m people which is hugely manpower intensive. And when such an occupation is running you will have lots of "ground level" interaction with IDF soldiers and Gazan civilians, lots of incidents of insurgents attacking IDF, IDF counterattacking, lots of Gazan civilians dead in the cross fire (similar to our occupation of the larger Iraqi cities in the 2000s.)

You are assuming Bibi cares about all of that.  It is a big assumption to make.

He will go on a rampage to destroy as much as he can in Gaza, than push forward to extend Israeli's lines of defense, colonize a bit more territory there and in the West Bank, most likely, push the Palestinians even further and re-fortify the positions.

It's not like any protests from the outside would matter.

Quote from: Iormlund on October 08, 2023, 11:19:00 AMThe IDF doesn't have much of a choice, really.

The attack has shown that Hamas cannot be contained inside Gaza.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 10:38:48 AMThere's big tech gaps in drones. Some of the shittier drones the Russians / Iranians have used for example have suffered hilariously huge casualty rates without ever delivering a payload, these are drones that move at speeds akin to "walking" in terms of aerial combat, and can be very rapidly killed by a number of modern military technologies.

In lower tech situations they are high reward for very low cost, though.

Then there are drones that are almost as sophisticated as fighter jets.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 10:50:21 AMThere is no perfect response to anti-Semitic fascism.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 10:50:21 AMThere is no perfect response to anti-Semitic fascism.

You know Arabs are a semitic people too right?
So... Yes.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 07, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Quote from: Josephus on October 07, 2023, 04:16:05 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 07, 2023, 02:33:51 PMNetanyahu in his address told Gaza residents to "flee" because "We will turn all Hamas hiding places into Rubble."

to where?

I wondered the same—I guess into the sea?

Quote from: HVC on October 08, 2023, 11:44:16 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 10:50:21 AMThere is no perfect response to anti-Semitic fascism.

You know Arabs are a semitic people too right?
So... Yes.

In the context you know what Semitic means. Don't play that game. It's below you.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 11:24:39 AMSome of this is true, but Israel even under its current far right regime is not going to genocide 5 million people. The question remains what is to be done with them?

I have seen reports in Al Jazeera now that the IDF is sending geolocation based text messages to everyone living in a corridor near the existing border fence (on the Gazan side) telling them to leave the area. Makes me think Israel may be planning on leveling all structures within x feet of the border fence on the Gazan side--maybe making it a "no man's land." We shall see though.

Note that the people in Gaza who have reported this also have indicated they literally have nowhere to go, Gaza doesn't have extra homes for them to move into.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 08, 2023, 09:45:58 AMThere are reports that dozens of the Hamas hostages are US citizens. If confirmed, this massively ups the stakes.

Quote from: Josquius You know Arabs are a semitic people too right?

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AMYou know Arabs are a semitic people too right?

Quote from: The Brain on October 08, 2023, 01:50:19 PMRemind me, did Siege drink himself to death or is he still alive?

Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 08, 2023, 02:02:56 PMHe's leading a commando force into Lebanon.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 08, 2023, 12:27:18 PMThe US is sending the Gerald Ford carrier group to "support"

QuoteThe Israel Defense Forces says the Navy's Shayetet 13 unit has taken into custody the deputy commander of the southern division of the Hamas naval force in Gaza, Muhammad Abu Ghali.

"The suspect is being held and is currently being interrogated by the defense establishment," the IDF says.

No further details are given on how Abu Ghali was captured.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 02:49:03 PMWill probably be a while before we have tons of reliable reporting on the damage in Gaza (the few journalists there apparently are having trouble with reliable internet, also most of Gaza has not had power for 30+ hours.) But it seems like the bombings thus far are massive compared to anything we have seen in recent conflicts between Israel and Hamas.

Before I went to bed last night they had announced over 800 sites in Gaza had been bombed. Today 150 sites in a single neighborhood were bombed with over 100 tons of munitions. While I have only seen limited videos / photos from inside Gaza I can't imagine but that the destruction is immense.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2023, 01:39:27 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AMYou know Arabs are a semitic people too right?

My father was a wandering Aramean . . .

I do not think the Arabs of Gaza recognize the kinship.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:47:03 AM

Quote from: HVC on October 08, 2023, 11:44:16 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 10:50:21 AMThere is no perfect response to anti-Semitic fascism.

You know Arabs are a semitic people too right?
So... Yes.

In the context you know what Semitic means. Don't play that game. It's below you.

It's Raz I'm talking to. Poking at technicalities in his picture book view of the world is just a bit of crack. :p

Plus there is a bit of a real point there - islamophobic fascists are running the show in Israel these days. Something many are keen to forget.
This is very much a shitheads on both sides situation.

Quote from: mongers on October 08, 2023, 03:33:38 PMThis will blot out most other news stories for weeks perhaps; the terrible Afghanistan earthquake has hardly had a mention here, Ukraine as 'gone quiet' and sadly the climate change heatwave figures are also overshadowed by the terrorist invasion.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 03:41:47 PM

Quote from: mongers on October 08, 2023, 03:33:38 PMThis will blot out most other news stories for weeks perhaps; the terrible Afghanistan earthquake has hardly had a mention here, Ukraine as 'gone quiet' and sadly the climate change heatwave figures are also overshadowed by the terrorist invasion.

Frankly I am content to not care one whit about anything that happens in Afghanistan. I can think of no people on earth who have more ardently expressed their desire to live in a shithole—I am happy to leave them to it. The idea of giving them one penny of aid is confusing to me.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 03:34:42 PMThat's not a technicality.  It's bullshit.  You know that.  There are some far right people in Israel's government.  But Muslims still work and live in Israel.  They have the right to vote, the right to speech and all the rights of modern democracy.  The Israeli government for all it's faults didn't just shoot political enemies in the legs and throw them off buildings.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 03:41:47 PMI can think of no people on earth who have more ardently expressed their desire to live in a shithole

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 04:09:19 PMI also suggest you read about the treatment of Palestinians who need to work in Israel, or simply cross the territory to reach other parts of their fragmented reality.

Quote from: mongers on October 08, 2023, 03:48:37 PMYesterday terrorist attack and the retaliation is figurately off the scale, well at least on this one:

(https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/INTERACTIVE-Gaza-human-toll-1696686056.png)

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 03:34:42 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:47:03 AM

Quote from: HVC on October 08, 2023, 11:44:16 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 11:42:59 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 10:50:21 AMThere is no perfect response to anti-Semitic fascism.

You know Arabs are a semitic people too right?
So... Yes.

In the context you know what Semitic means. Don't play that game. It's below you.

It's Raz I'm talking to. Poking at technicalities in his picture book view of the world is just a bit of crack. :p

Plus there is a bit of a real point there - islamophobic fascists are running the show in Israel these days. Something many are keen to forget.
This is very much a shitheads on both sides situation.

That's not a technicality.  It's bullshit.  You know that.  There are some far right people in Israel's government.  But Muslims still work and live in Israel.  They have the right to vote, the right to speech and all the rights of modern democracy.  The Israeli government for all it's faults didn't just shoot political enemies in the legs and throw them off buildings.

Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2023, 04:18:09 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 04:09:19 PMI also suggest you read about the treatment of Palestinians who need to work in Israel, or simply cross the territory to reach other parts of their fragmented reality.

I'm old enough to remember the constant bombings in the 90's until the walls went up. Israel is not doing all of this expensive, both in economical an political term, walling in for shits and giggles. They do it because they were, and are, constantly being targeted by Palestinian terrorists operating from Palestinian territory and keeping a very very watchful eye on Palestinian territory radically decreases Israeli deaths from terrorism.

It's not very nice, but blowing up Israeli civilians is even less nice.

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 04:09:19 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 03:34:42 PMThat's not a technicality.  It's bullshit.  You know that.  There are some far right people in Israel's government.  But Muslims still work and live in Israel.  They have the right to vote, the right to speech and all the rights of modern democracy.  The Israeli government for all it's faults didn't just shoot political enemies in the legs and throw them off buildings.

I suggest you read more the discrimination of this minority. 

I also suggest you read about the treatment of Palestinians who need to work in Israel, or simply cross the territory to reach other parts of their fragmented reality.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:23:47 PMIt's not bullshit at all. It's a fact. Arabs are a semitic people.
Obviously nobody actually uses anti semitism like that. But twisting your words in jest does make them more true than you know.
It's ignorant in the extreme to pretend the entire problem and reason there isn't peace in the region lies on the Palestinian side and with Palestinian extremists (which evidently in your view is a redundant thing to say)

You really ought to read up about Palestine if you think this "there's normal people in Israel, they aren't all nazis!" is some kind of defence of their government.

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 04:11:24 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 03:41:47 PMI can think of no people on earth who have more ardently expressed their desire to live in a shithole

I don't remember all of the Afghanis being given a choice to stay or leave.  Nor do I remember them being given a choice to live under Taliban rule.

It's not as if the West proposed a stable model of democracy free of corruption with equality for all.  We kinda dropped the ball on this country.  Again.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 04:41:02 PMArabs speak a Semitic language.  Anti-Semitism refers explicitly to the Jewish race.  It never referred to language only race.  When the Europeans were labeling the Jews Semites they did not, by and large, speak a Semitic language. Most Jews spoke the language of the country they lived in or Yidish which is an Indo-European language.

QuoteBut if you'd prefer I can just use the term Jew-hater.

QuoteThat adequately describes the Palestinians.  Something like 93% of Palestinians are antisemtic.  I are Jew Haters.

Do you really believe that the Israeli government which affords rights to minorities and them full citizenship is equivalent to Hamas run Gaza which routinely kills people who disagree with it?

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 04:30:21 PMIs anything I have written false?  A Muslim living in Israel has rights.  A Jew living in Palestine won't be living very long.  The Arabs of the Gaza strip used to be fairly prosperous.  They had a higher standard of living the Arabs of Jordan.  Then Arafat launched the Second Intifada.

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:52:11 PMRace is a vague and hand wavey unscientific concept. Though it's definitely fair to say the Arabs are a semitic people. Pretty sure the term anti semitism actually came after ye olde racial pseudo scientists came up with the concept of semitic peoples (which included far more than just jews) .

QuoteMy point was Hamas aren't unique in being absolute cunts. There's plenty on the Israeli side just as bad.
They've long held disproportionate power though lately have gained far more than they ever have. Did you miss the news a few months back of Israel being rather trumpy?

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 06:05:10 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 08, 2023, 05:23:47 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 04:30:21 PMIs anything I have written false?  A Muslim living in Israel has rights.  A Jew living in Palestine won't be living very long.  The Arabs of the Gaza strip used to be fairly prosperous.  They had a higher standard of living the Arabs of Jordan.  Then Arafat launched the Second Intifada.

There's a drastic blocus in place by Israel and Egypt.  That explains the drop in living condition.  It can't be help with the Hamas ruling the place, but it's not all about Palestinians ruling the place.
And I doubt your assertion that the Arabs of Gaza were fairly prosperous as of 2000, more than the average Jordanian.
GDP per capita in 2000 was over 1.5x that of Gaza for Jordan.
https://tradingeconomics.com/palestine/gdp-per-capita-ppp
https://tradingeconomics.com/jordan/gdp-per-capita-ppp
It certainly dropped during the 2nd Intifida, wars on your own territory tend to do that.
As for Jews living in Palestine, well, it's been tried before, living side by side with others.  It seems that once they run out of Philistines or Pagans to kill and dismember, they all turn on one another, so it's not a viable solution for anyone.
There need to be a viable Palestinian State with clear borders.  Even a hawk like Golda Meir recognized that.  Jews and Palestinians will never live together in peace inside the same country, Israelis aren't interested in granting them equal rights and be assimilated by the majority.
Keeping them in near apartheid territories like that while constantly constricting them further, war or no war, is only leading to further conflicts like this and alienating foreign opinion against Israel - which doesn't even need that big of a push in some circles.

Got it from this

QuoteAt the time of the September 1993 signing of the Israel-PLO Declaration of Principles, conditions in the territories were far better than in most Arab states – despite the steep economic decline caused by the intifada of 1987-93. But within six months of Arafat's arrival in Gaza in July 1994, the standard of living in the Strip fell by 25%, and more than half the area's residents claimed to have been happier under Israel. Even so, at the time Arafat launched his war of terrorism in September 2000, Palestinian income per capita was nearly double Syria's, more than four times Yemen's, and 10% higher than Jordan's – one of the better-off Arab states. Only the oil-rich Gulf states and Lebanon were more affluent.
By the time of Arafat's death in November 2004, his terrorism war had slashed this income to a fraction of its earlier levels, with real GDP per capita some 35% below the pre-September 2000 level, unemployment more than doubling, and numerous Palestinians reduced to poverty and despondency. And while Israel's suppression of the terrorism war generated a steady recovery, with the years 2007-11 even recording an average yearly growth above 8%, by mid-2014 a fully blown recession had taken hold, especially in the Gaza Strip.

https://besacenter.org/its-not-the-economy-stupid/

Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2023, 05:34:58 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 08, 2023, 04:52:11 PMRace is a vague and hand wavey unscientific concept. Though it's definitely fair to say the Arabs are a semitic people. Pretty sure the term anti semitism actually came after ye olde racial pseudo scientists came up with the concept of semitic peoples (which included far more than just jews) .

Think again.  Semitic is linguistic, it was borrowed by racists specifically to refer to Jews.  The Nazis broadcast to Arabs in the 30's and 40's to encourage them to attack the Jews.  They didn't call the Arabs Semites then.  Cause quite a few race riots in the middle east.  That's one of the root causes of our problems today.

QuoteMy
Yeah, here's the problem.  "rather Trumpy" isn't the same as mass murdering dictatorship.  The far right in Israel is part of the same phenomenon in whole West.  Nigel Farange, Donald Trump, Marie Le Pen are all manifestations of it.  When Brexit passed Britain didn't become Nazi Germany.  If you take the quotes of Israeli far right they don't sound differ than the some of the more dodgy members of the Tories.  You really don't find much similar in western rhetoric Israeli like

"The time has come to kill the Jews" or encouraging people to just randomly attack Jews with knives and cleavers (the first one came from Fatah the second from Hamas)

Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2023, 05:56:17 PMWhat exactly is meant by some Israelis being just as bad as Hamas?  Murdering every civilian they run across in cold blood bad?  Cheering on murdering those civilians bad?  Teaching th0ire children to cheer on murdering those civilians bad?

Quote'Whoever is with us should get everything. Whoever is against us, there's nothing else to do. We have to lift up an axe and remove his head, otherwise we won't survive here. There is no reason that Umm al-Fahm will be part of Israel.'^[108]

Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2023, 07:34:15 PMOkay, one more question just to make sure we are clear on the concepts.  There are many bad things in the world, let's rank several of them.

1)  Making inflammatory comments.
2)  Killing captured members of military.
3)  Killing of civilian men.
4)  Killing of civilian women.
5)  Killing of civilian elderly.
6)  Killing of civilian children.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 08:58:09 PMUN is saying over 120,000 Gazans have already been displaced since the fighting started.

Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2023, 07:34:15 PMOkay, one more question just to make sure we are clear on the concepts.  There are many bad things in the world, let's rank several of them.

1)  Making inflammatory comments.
2)  Killing captured members of military.
3)  Killing of civilian men.
4)  Killing of civilian women.
5)  Killing of civilian elderly.
6)  Killing of civilian children.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 09:17:22 PMAs I noted before--and is more useful, deliberate planned killing of civilians is he key here. You can follow every law of war that exists and still kill civilians, this is a brutal reality of war. There is a reason we specifically, as the society of "civilized nations" have specifically said that it is the deliberate targeting of civilians that is a war crime.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 08, 2023, 09:22:45 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 08, 2023, 09:17:22 PMAs I noted before--and is more useful, deliberate planned killing of civilians is he key here. You can follow every law of war that exists and still kill civilians, this is a brutal reality of war. There is a reason we specifically, as the society of "civilized nations" have specifically said that it is the deliberate targeting of civilians that is a war crime.

I agree. But I'm not sure how one defends the actions of the sorts of incursions the Israelis have made into Gaza over the years and particularly over the last 24 hours to be anything other than the delivered killing of civilians.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 03:02:13 AMThe only solution is a permanent destruction of the culture and society which gives rise to cancers like Hamas. Palestinian society needs to be totally reformed the way Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 03:02:13 AMThe only solution is a permanent destruction of the culture and society which gives rise to cancers like Hamas. Palestinian society needs to be totally reformed the way Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were.

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 02:58:04 AMIf the bad guys could be solidly painted as bad guys political opposition to helping out Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel would decrease.

Quote from: DGuller on October 08, 2023, 11:38:29 PMSometimes I wonder how much the practice of using own civilians as human shields would be utilized if it didn't work so well with some in the West.

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 03:16:07 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 02:58:04 AMIf the bad guys could be solidly painted as bad guys political opposition to helping out Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel would decrease.

One of these things is not like the others.

QuoteDefense Minister Yoav Gallant: "I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly."

Quote from: The Brain on October 09, 2023, 03:58:07 AMIn Sweden the attack was celebrated in several places. Biggest celebration in a city in the south of Sweden where 200-300 cars made up an impromptu parade. Many people in Sweden really hate Jews.

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 04:22:19 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 03:16:07 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 02:58:04 AMIf the bad guys could be solidly painted as bad guys political opposition to helping out Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel would decrease.

One of these things is not like the others.

Personally I think that useful idiots ought to be shunned from civil society.

Quote from: garbon on October 09, 2023, 05:44:17 AMHuman animals?

Quote from: mongers on October 09, 2023, 06:26:30 AM

Quote from: garbon on October 09, 2023, 05:44:17 AMHuman animals?

Translation issue?

I've seen several different versions of Israeli PM statements that differ quite a bit, so have not been sure enough to quote them here.

Perhaps the Israeli government doesn't routinely release English version of those statements etc?

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 06:18:49 AMYou seriously think Taiwan and Ukraine being under threat of destruction from the major military power next door are remotely comparable to Palestine?

In the Israel /Palestine situation it's Israel who are the major military power with the ability to extinguish their smaller weaker neighbour.

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 06:42:28 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 06:18:49 AMYou seriously think Taiwan and Ukraine being under threat of destruction from the major military power next door are remotely comparable to Palestine?

In the Israel /Palestine situation it's Israel who are the major military power with the ability to extinguish their smaller weaker neighbour.

Typically useful idiot style, interpreting selective facts and leaving out others to fit the wanted narrative. In this case completely ignoring Iran, Hezbollah and the rest of the complex Arab world... Not to mention Russia and all the useful idiots (that's you) and anti-semites all over the world.

So yes, in an isolated ideal world where there's nothing else but Israel and Gaza then Israel is very much the superior military power. In the real, far more complex, world Israel is balancing on a knife's edge. All it takes is another idiot US president and a drawn out Gaza conflict where Hamas can paint themselves as victims so that useful idiots (you again) can turn EU public will against them and their enemies will smell the blood in the water.

Quote from: garbon on October 09, 2023, 05:44:17 AMHuman animals?

Quote from: Threviel on October 09, 2023, 06:42:28 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 06:18:49 AMYou seriously think Taiwan and Ukraine being under threat of destruction from the major military power next door are remotely comparable to Palestine?

In the Israel /Palestine situation it's Israel who are the major military power with the ability to extinguish their smaller weaker neighbour.

Typically useful idiot style, interpreting selective facts and leaving out others to fit the wanted narrative. In this case completely ignoring Iran, Hezbollah and the rest of the complex Arab world... Not to mention Russia and all the useful idiots (that's you) and anti-semites all over the world.

So yes, in an isolated ideal world where there's nothing else but Israel and Gaza then Israel is very much the superior military power. In the real, far more complex, world Israel is balancing on a knife's edge. All it takes is another idiot US president and a drawn out Gaza conflict where Hamas can paint themselves as victims so that useful idiots (you again) can turn EU public will against them and their enemies will smell the blood in the water.

QuoteOur correspondent Charles Stratford reporting from the Israeli town of Netivot – some 3 km (1.86 miles) – away from Gaza, says there is a "massive build up" of troops at the southern border.

"Heavy weaponry is being brought into this area," he added. "You can see Armored Personnel Carriers – designed to bring troop infantry into battle. We have also seen tanks ... and self-propelled mobile artillery pieces and cannons."

"Israeli troops are being brought on trucks, what can only be described as specialised lightweight small vehicles, implying that some form of ground invasion was imminent," he reported.

Moreover, Stratford said there were continuous sorties being made by jet fighters flying towards Gaza "dropping their bombs, returning and going around again".

QuoteWestern leaders accused of hypocrisy over response to Palestine, Ukraine
Social media users, including journalists and observers, are calling out what they call a 'double standard'.

After Saturday's surprise attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on Israel, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy took to the social media platform X to offer "condolences go out to everyone who lost relatives or close ones in the terrorist attack".

He also stated, "Israel's right to self-defence is unquestionable".

Many world leaders, including US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, shared similar sentiments.

The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated, "Israel has the right to defend itself – today and in the days to come. The European Union stands with Israel".

Accusations of western 'double standards'
Some social media users have criticised these statements, saying they highlight a double standard.

Ukraine's right to defend itself is praised by most international leaders while Russia's invasion is condemned, but commentators said the same cannot be said about Israel's 56-year occupation of the West Bank and Gaza.

Aaron Bastani, a leftist British journalist, said on X that there's a "clear double standard in endorsing terrorism against civilian targets in Ukraine ... and condemning it by Palestinians".

Many users said Western diplomats and media support the Ukrainians who defend their land, but label the Palestinians fighting against Israel as "terrorists".

An illustration of a woman's face, in which one eye is closed beside a Palestinian flag, and one eye open beside a Ukrainian flag, has been regularly shared as a symbol of the West's alleged double standards in how the two conflicts are viewed.

Clips also emerged on social media from a CNN interview with Mustafa Barghouti, the general secretary of the Palestinian National Initiative, in which he posed the rhetorical question, "why the United States support Ukraine in fighting occupation? While here they support the occupier, who continues to occupy us".

An existing debate re-ignited
It is not the first time Western nations have been accused of double standards in their stance on the Ukraine war.

Earlier in the year, Amnesty published a report highlighting the West's "double standards" on global human rights.

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty's Amnesty secretary-general, told Al Jazeera at the time that the occupation of the Palestinians was a "particularly important one".

"Without making any comparison between Russia's aggression and Israel ... it is clear the Palestinian people are under a regime of oppression. A regime of occupation and a regime of apartheid," Callamard told Al Jazeera.

Over the last three days, X users recirculated earlier statements calling out what they called Western hypocrisy, sharing video by the Irish lawmaker Richard Boyd Barrett from March 2022 in which he berated the Irish government's double standards regarding Ukraine and Palestine.

"You're happy to use the most strong and robust language to describe the crimes against humanity of Vladimir Putin, but you will not use the same strength of language when it comes to describing Israel's treatment of the Palestinians".

Barrett on Sunday again called out what he called "shocking double standards of Western leaders supporting Ukraine resistance but condemning Palestinians."

Meanwhile, others warned against comparing conflicts.

And some cautioned that Hamas and Palestinians should not be seen as one and the same.

Ukrainian footballer Oleksandr Zinchenko, who plays for Arsenal, posted on Instagram stating he "stands with Israel".

Zinchenko has been a vocal supporter of his home country in its ongoing defence against Russia and participated in a Game4Ukraine charity match in London earlier this year to raise money for Ukraine.

After online backlash, with some questioning an alleged double standard in his support of Israel, the footballer removed the post and switched his social media account to private.

Several people claimed his football club, in not responding to Zinchenko's comments, were guilty of hypocrisy after they had distanced themselves from former player Mesut Ozil's comments in 2019 over alleged human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims in China.

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 07:43:35 AMThe useful idiots are those who uncontroversially back supporting Israel no matter what.
Huge cross over between those with this view and those who want to drop support for Ukraine and have a few bottles of vodka in their cuboard.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 09:58:27 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 07:43:35 AMThe useful idiots are those who uncontroversially back supporting Israel no matter what.
Huge cross over between those with this view and those who want to drop support for Ukraine and have a few bottles of vodka in their cuboard.

Is it?  Corbyn is now supporting Israel?

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 10:01:10 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 09:58:27 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 07:43:35 AMThe useful idiots are those who uncontroversially back supporting Israel no matter what.
Huge cross over between those with this view and those who want to drop support for Ukraine and have a few bottles of vodka in their cuboard.

Is it?  Corbyn is now supporting Israel?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZIUClH2UxE

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 10:06:45 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 10:01:10 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 09:58:27 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 07:43:35 AMThe useful idiots are those who uncontroversially back supporting Israel no matter what.
Huge cross over between those with this view and those who want to drop support for Ukraine and have a few bottles of vodka in their cuboard.

Is it?  Corbyn is now supporting Israel?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZIUClH2UxE

So is that yes?  Corbyn is now supporting Israel?

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 09, 2023, 10:18:50 AMAlso Ynet is reporting that the head of Egyptian intelligence warned Netanyahu ten days before the attack that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place around Gaza and this was dismissed by Netanyahu who, reportedly, said that the IDF was focused on fighting terror in the West Bank where attacks were actively being carried out.

Netanyahu's office has called the report "a lie".

Again I think the mood of national unity is going to be short-lived. It will be political very quickly (in a way I think this is possibly, like the protests, a sign of the health of Israeli democracy despite all the concerning stuff). We've already seen Haaretz explicitly blame Netanyahu. I don't think this will be the end of reports about how and why the focus was on the West Bank. At the same time Netanyahu and his coalition were attacking the security apparatus as being infected by the left because of Shin Bet, Mossad etc leaders saying the divisions over judicial reforms were weakening Israeli society and security - they were not just causing the protests but also reservists refusing call ups. I think the coalition will return to that line of attack.

I suspect this means we might not see a national unity government - in practical terms I think this war will be prosecuted by what, reportedly, Netanyahu considers to be a dysfunctional security cabinet which includes extremists on the far right. I think that is concerning. I also think Israeli politics will be very combustible as these types of stories come forward. From the outside I can't see how Netanyahu can survive, but I think we've all thought that before - but I think this may entrench further and deeper which is not good either.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 10:14:12 AMI don't support the Republicans. 

QuoteCorbyn on the other hand ran the Labour party during it's anti-Semitic phase and has "friends" in Hamas.

Quote from: garbon on October 09, 2023, 05:44:17 AMHuman animals?

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 09, 2023, 10:18:50 AMAlso Ynet is reporting that the head of Egyptian intelligence warned Netanyahu ten days before the attack that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place around Gaza and this was dismissed by Netanyahu who, reportedly, said that the IDF was focused on fighting terror in the West Bank where attacks were actively being carried out.

Netanyahu's office has called the report "a lie".

Again I think the mood of national unity is going to be short-lived. It will be political very quickly (in a way I think this is possibly, like the protests, a sign of the health of Israeli democracy despite all the concerning stuff). We've already seen Haaretz explicitly blame Netanyahu. I don't think this will be the end of reports about how and why the focus was on the West Bank. At the same time Netanyahu and his coalition were attacking the security apparatus as being infected by the left because of Shin Bet, Mossad etc leaders saying the divisions over judicial reforms were weakening Israeli society and security - they were not just causing the protests but also reservists refusing call ups. I think the coalition will return to that line of attack.

I suspect this means we might not see a national unity government - in practical terms I think this war will be prosecuted by what, reportedly, Netanyahu considers to be a dysfunctional security cabinet which includes extremists on the far right. I think that is concerning. I also think Israeli politics will be very combustible as these types of stories come forward. From the outside I can't see how Netanyahu can survive, but I think we've all thought that before - but I think this may entrench further and deeper which is not good either.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 10:21:04 AMNone of those people will rule over me.

QuoteCorrection:Statement by PM Netanyahu
Government
The 37th Government
Publish Date
07.10.2023
Updated date
08.10.2023
Correction:Statement by PM Netanyahu 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this evening, at the Kirya in Tel Aviv:

"Dear citizens of Israel,

This morning, on Shabbat and a holiday, Hamas invaded Israeli territory and murdered innocent citizens including children and the elderly. Hamas has started a brutal and evil war.

We will be victorious in this war despite an unbearable price. This is a very difficult day for all of us.

Hamas wants to murder us all. This is an enemy that murders children and mothers in their homes, in their beds, an enemy that abducts the elderly, children and young women, that slaughters and massacres our citizens, including children, who simply went out to enjoy the holiday.

What happened today is unprecedented in Israel – and I will see to it that it does not happen again. The entire government is behind this decision.

The IDF will immediately use all its strength to destroy Hamas's capabilities. We will destroy them and we will forcefully avenge this dark day that they have forced on the State of Israel and its citizens. As Bialik wrote (https://allpoetry.com/On-The-Slaughter): 'Revenge for the blood of a little child has yet been devised by Satan'.

All of the places which Hamas is deployed, hiding and operating in, that wicked city, we will turn them into rubble.

I say to the residents of Gaza: Leave now because we will operate forcefully everywhere.

At this hour, the IDF is clearing the terrorists out of the last communities. They are going community by community, house by house, and are restoring our control.

I embrace and send heartfelt condolences to the bereaved families whose loved ones were murdered today in cold blood and endless brutality.

We are all praying for the well-being of the wounded and all those who are being held hostage. I say to Hamas: You are responsible for their well-being. Israel will settle accounts with anyone who harms one hair on their heads.

I appeal to the residents of the south: We all stand alongside you. We are all proud of your heroism and your fighting.

To our beloved IDF soldiers, police officers and security forces personnel, remember that you are the continuation of the heroes of the Jewish people, of Joshua, Judah Maccabee and the heroes of 1948 and of all of Israel's wars. You are now fighting for the home and future of us all. We are all with you. We all love you. We all salute you.

To the medical and rescue teams, and the many volunteers who came out in force today in a long list of places, the people of Israel salute you. With your spirit, we will overcome our enemies.
 
Today, I spoke with US President Biden and with other world leaders in order to ensure freedom of action for Israel in the continuation of the campaign. I thank President Biden for his strong and clear words (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/07/statement-from-president-joe-biden-condemning-terrorist-attacks-in-israel/). I thank the President of France, the Prime Minister of Great Britain and many other leaders for their unreserved support for Israel.

I now appeal to all citizens of Israel.

We stand together in this campaign.

This war will take time. It will be difficult. Challenging days are ahead of us. However, I can promise one thing: With the help of G-d, the forces that we all have in common and our faith in the Eternal One of Israel, we will win."

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 09, 2023, 11:02:34 AMOof,  but I disagree with your conclusions.  Netanyahu will find a negligent subordinate to blame and will question the loyalty to the state of Israel if any calls for his removal.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 11:13:11 AMFWIW I did say I wonder if "Human animals" is a problem of translation from Hebrew.

QuoteIsraeli military announces launch of largest airstrikes on Hamas in Gaza
The Israeli military announces it will carry out one of the largest airstrikes ever against Hamas in the besieged Gaza Strip.

Israeli media also reported that Israel has hit 1000 targets in Gaza, adding that the military has announced it will continue airstrikes on Gaza, even if at the cost of harming Israeli captives in the enclave.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 11:21:58 AM

QuoteIsraeli military announces launch of largest airstrikes on Hamas in Gaza
The Israeli military announces it will carry out one of the largest airstrikes ever against Hamas in the besieged Gaza Strip.

Israeli media also reported that Israel has hit 1000 targets in Gaza, adding that the military has announced it will continue airstrikes on Gaza, even if at the cost of harming Israeli captives in the enclave.

The brutality of it is, if you're going to prosecute a war here the 150 (or w/e the number is) of hostages have to just be considered KIA. You can either prosecute a war or you can worry about getting them home, you can't realistically do both. I'm sure Israel will try to rescue any that they conceivably can, but the reality is the opportunity to do so will be unlikely.

Quote from: PJL on October 09, 2023, 11:40:12 AM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 11:21:58 AM

QuoteIsraeli military announces launch of largest airstrikes on Hamas in Gaza
The Israeli military announces it will carry out one of the largest airstrikes ever against Hamas in the besieged Gaza Strip.

Israeli media also reported that Israel has hit 1000 targets in Gaza, adding that the military has announced it will continue airstrikes on Gaza, even if at the cost of harming Israeli captives in the enclave.

The brutality of it is, if you're going to prosecute a war here the 150 (or w/e the number is) of hostages have to just be considered KIA. You can either prosecute a war or you can worry about getting them home, you can't realistically do both. I'm sure Israel will try to rescue any that they conceivably can, but the reality is the opportunity to do so will be unlikely.

Yeah, I think at this point you should assume all the hostages in Gaza are as good as dead. If any can be rescued all well and good, but best not to keep your hopes up on that front. The only complicating factor here would be the foreign hostages being kept - this may be a restraining factor on Israeli actions against Gaza.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 09, 2023, 10:18:50 AMAlso Ynet is reporting that the head of Egyptian intelligence warned Netanyahu ten days before the attack that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place around Gaza and this was dismissed by Netanyahu who, reportedly, said that the IDF was focused on fighting terror in the West Bank where attacks were actively being carried out.

Netanyahu's office has called the report "a lie".

Again I think the mood of national unity is going to be short-lived.

QuoteQassam Brigades threatens to execute Israeli captives
Hamas's Qassam Brigades has threatened to execute Israeli captives if Israel continues to bombard and kill civilians in Gaza.

"Any targeting of innocent civilians without warning will be met regretfully by executing one of the captives in our custody, and we will be forced to broadcast this execution," said Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas' Qassam Brigades.

"We regret this decision but we hold the Zionist enemy and their leadership the responsibility for this," he said.

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 11:06:35 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 10:21:04 AMNone of those people will rule over me.

I hope you're right.
But their colleagues sort of already are. Didn't the recent funding tranche for Ukraine fall through because of them?

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 12:02:53 PMIMO when this happens it is a nail in the coffin for any chance Hamas has in the PR battle, this will make Hamas basically "ISIS" in the minds of most Western media etc, and give Israel virtual carte-blanche to do whatever the fuck it wants in Gaza.

QuoteIf Hezbollah joins the war, the IDF will completely destroy Damascus and will directly target the Iran-backed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, US warships will support Israel in this war. This message was delivered by Israel via France.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 11:09:46 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 09, 2023, 11:02:34 AMOof,  but I disagree with your conclusions.  Netanyahu will find a negligent subordinate to blame and will question the loyalty to the state of Israel if any calls for his removal.

I think the problem with holding Netanyahu accountable, is the brutality of the Hamas attacks and the level of outrage they spark, it will help "paper over" a lot of Netanyahu's troubles. This sort of environment is really the "perfect storm" of benefit for Israel's far right to be able to get away with things they have always wanted.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 12:09:19 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 11:06:35 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 10:21:04 AMNone of those people will rule over me.

I hope you're right.
But their colleagues sort of already are. Didn't the recent funding tranche for Ukraine fall through because of them?

Yeah, but that appears to be temporary.  American leftists don't automatically hate Israel.  Biden is all about giving more aid to Israel.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 01:03:32 PMA wider war seems imminent:

QuoteIf Hezbollah joins the war, the IDF will completely destroy Damascus and will directly target tIran-backed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, US warships will support Israel in this war. This message was delivered by Israel via France.

Quote from: Tonitrus on October 09, 2023, 01:10:31 PMIsn't there a decent danger, that if the war moves from a localized Israel-Gaza fight, to a more general conflict between Israel, Gaza, Hezbollah/Lebanon/Iran...it will be a lot harder for the other area governments (Jordan, Saudi) to just sit quiet.  I imagine even if the rulers would try to keep thing practical, their population may well not.

Quote~
MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
IS THIS WORLD WAR 3?

I have been asked that four times in two days.
The answer is no, not yet.
World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States (a bizarre act that few even in Germany really understood), in December 1941. By then the war in Europe had been going on since September 1939.
In one of my very early posts I commented on the fact that world wars spread relatively slowly. They sort of creep up because they cause a fundamental series of movements on the geo-political chess board.
Those movements allow others to see if the attention of enemies they would not wish to fight openly, have been so successfully distracted - or even taken out of the game, that others can move. They can take risks they wouldn't otherwise have considered.
The defeat of France left its Far Eastern colonies in modern Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos completely exposed. Japan quickly took advantage, taking them over with the acquiescence of the Vichy government.
Now we have N.Korea involving itself in the Ukraine war - because it can harm its arch-enemy, the US, by sending weapons to fight against an American proxy army as they see it. And they're getting paid, probably in hard currency like Yuan, technology and oil. Russia is possibly even supplying the raw materials for the DPRK to manufacture weapons for it. With unlimited slave labour it's the perfect weapons factory from a Russian perspective.
So with the DPRK involved that makes it more global than it was. China wrapped up in civil financial crisis and military command purges however, seems unlikely to test the waters of a Taiwan invasion. That would indeed say, a World War has begun.
There seems no doubt that the Iranians have used the Russians.
They had something Russia wanted - drones and missiles, and in part exchange they obtained Russian acquiescence in rattling Israel as part of the deal. This served Russia practically. It doesn't want Kyiv getting Iron Dome - and over time that's become more likely. Now with its missiles and systems in full use Israel is never going to get around to supplying one to Kyiv.
Now forget the horror and the drama of the last few days and think only of the outcome. Only outcomes matter. Gaza is going to be obliterated. Two million people are going to face depravations and death because of what Hamas has done. It's going to be a tragedy. Israel doesn't need vast amounts of western aid, but we have to show willing because nobody in their right mind gets on the wrong side of the Israelis or doesn't show support, it's political suicide to do nothing even when nothing needs doing. If Iranian backed Hezbollah in Lebanon- a force loathed by the native Lebanese - starts to seriously attack Israel with Iranian backing, then the USS Gerald R Ford on its first active deployment will find itself in combat alongside the Israelis. Iran doesn't want a war on that scale because it could all too easily get out of hand and I think they know it will end badly for them.  The Russians are hardly in a position to offer any support. But if it distracts America, rattles Israel and dislodges the Americans from Syria - their position will be almost untenable - Iran will be pleased with itself. Russia will smile as the American focus moves off of Ukraine. The Jewish lobby in the US is vast and it's an election run up. No US politician worth his salt is forgetting that.
 These aren't conflicts of conquest, they're wars of religion, ideology, hate and influence. They do it because they think they should. Everyone else in the Middle East will sit back and hope to God it doesn't spill over.
If it spreads it will be into Lebanon and Syria. The power vacuum in Syria has never been resolved.
Iran wants it done with and to cement its position, and that suits the Russians and their military bases on the coast. Israel will never permit Iran a permanent presence in Syria on its borders. It barely tolerates Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It all depends now on how much Iran can control its proxies and how far it's willing to let them go.
Russia has been supplying captured western weapons to Iran for use by Hamas, just to stir the pot even more.
Questions will have to be asked about how they got there. Israel controls the land sea and air borders to Gaza - bar one the Egyptians manage. No guesses as to who needs to answer some awkward questions.
The primary end to this is that Gaza will be reduced to rubble, its people will get no aid and everyone will ignore the tragedy because of what Hamas did to, and are doing to Israelis and the hostages they've taken - including terrified children.
The only question now is what happens on the Golan Heights and how far does Hezbollah go in goading the Israelis from
Lebanon?
Iran may find that emotions get the better of its proxies and drag it in to something it doesn't really want. Especially if Hezbollah reacts violently to the inevitable carnage to come in Gaza.
You can't help but wonder who the idiot in Tehran that thought this up is? Did they really think it would be so simple? That they wouldn't poke a dragon that's been desperate for a fight to distract Israelis from the anti-democratic agenda they've been pushing at home? This has played into Netanyahu's hands like nothing else ever could.
This is a shit storm, have no doubt about that. But it's a long way from WW3. However the more you see the more you realise Putin's fingers are in this pie even if direct involvement is his last intention.
America and the west have another challenge to rise to. Oil prices will spike and guess who profits from that-
Moscow and Tehran. Great Power Games. They never end.

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 01:27:01 PM"World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States"

QuoteHamas is open to discussions over a possible truce with Israel, having "achieved its targets", a senior official has said.

Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera in a phone interview that Hamas was open to "something of that sort" and "all political dialogues" when asked whether the group is willing to discuss a possible ceasefire.

He also said that Hamas had captured 'tens' of dual-citizens from Israel, including those with Russian and Chinese citizenship.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 01:30:11 PM

QuoteHamas is open to discussions over a possible truce with Israel, having "achieved its targets", a senior official has said.

Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera in a phone interview that Hamas was open to "something of that sort" and "all political dialogues" when asked whether the group is willing to discuss a possible ceasefire.

He also said that Hamas had captured 'tens' of dual-citizens from Israel, including those with Russian and Chinese citizenship.

This combined with the threat to execute hostages makes me think Hamas may actually be shitting its pants right now. I never like to assume people are fully stupid; but it is starting to look like Hamas really thought this would be just the same old tit for tat minor bombing response and then some sort of public hostage negotiation. I think they are starting to realize this is rapidly going to be a battle for survival.

Quote from: The Brain on October 09, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 01:27:01 PM"World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States"

Ah yes, WW1 1917-1918.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 01:31:32 PMYou mean that the senior leaders are about to get the martyrdom they always preached about and suddenly they have cold feet?

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 01:53:58 PMIsrael isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

Quote from: FunkMonk on October 09, 2023, 02:13:33 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 01:53:58 PMIsrael isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

?

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 01:53:58 PMIsrael isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

Quote from: The Brain on October 09, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 01:27:01 PM"World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States"

Ah yes, WW1 1917-1918.

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 01:35:27 PM

Quote from: The Brain on October 09, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 09, 2023, 01:27:01 PM"World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States"

Ah yes, WW1 1917-1918.

Yeah that bit was bizare for sure
Never heard that. Far more common is knocking back the start date for the Japanese invasion of China.

Or maybe he just means what it was known As at the time? We now know it was ww2 in 1939 but did they?

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 01:31:32 PMYou mean that the senior leaders are about to get the martyrdom they always preached about and suddenly they have cold feet?

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 12:35:39 PMI think a major concern for the Western powers is this could expand to involve Hezbollah and even Iran. I think that is what the leaders of US / UK / Germany / France are supposedly meeting about.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2023, 10:18:30 PMThe merits or lack thereof of the various sides and factions in and outside of Israel are not really pertinent at this point.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2023, 02:56:20 PMWestern European countries have the additional issue of having lots of muslims in their cities. And as ISIS showed: a lot of them are willing to kill, and a lot are willing to accommodate the first group.
Expect terror alert warning to go up a few notches

QuoteThere are some 1,500 bodies of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli territory, Channel 13 news reports, without citing a source.

The Israel Defense Forces has estimated it has killed hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen who infiltrated Israel since Saturday morning.

On the Gaza side, at least 687 people have been killed after Israel launched air strikes on the Palestinian enclave in response.

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 03:41:08 PM

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 08, 2023, 10:18:30 PMThe merits or lack thereof of the various sides and factions in and outside of Israel are not really pertinent at this point.

I disagree about your introduction.

Israel has every right to defend itself.  It has no choice but to do so.  We are in agreement.

But the constant colonization had to stop.  You recognized it yourself that Israel lost its soul, at some point.

This is the result: constant warfare.

Israel colonizes and humiliates Palestinians.  Fence, blocus, bombardment and military incursion do not prevent Hamas from rearming and recruiting new "soldiers".

Hamas strikes again at Israel.

Rince & repeat.

It has to stop.  Hamas will not stop by itself.  Hamas will not talk about of peace.  Fatah might be willing to if Israel gives some territory back to create a viable Palestinian state. But when the State keeps colonies pushing while it talks of peace is not really credible.

And is the Israeli society willing to accept that kind of peace?  A good third of the population is unwilling to.  About the same proportion of Palestinians who seem to support the more radical agenda of the Hamas.

I do not think there is a genuine interest from the current government to make any kind of peace with the Palestinians, or grant them any kind of territory.  They want them gone, plain and simple, especially after this week-end.

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 04:10:21 PM

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Jews are the natives of an Israel. Arab Muslims are the colonizers.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 04:28:27 PMBro we don't want Europe. Bunch of declining populations filled with old white lefties and exploding populations of unassimilated Muslims.

I'd let Greece in though just for the vacations.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 03:48:46 PM

QuoteThere are some 1,500 bodies of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli territory, Channel 13 news reports, without citing a source.

The Israel Defense Forces has estimated it has killed hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen who infiltrated Israel since Saturday morning.

On the Gaza side, at least 687 people have been killed after Israel launched air strikes on the Palestinian enclave in response.

If true this would be a sign of just how crazily large the incursion was.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 02:41:40 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 01:53:58 PMIsrael isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

Go fuck yourself.

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 03:42:23 PM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2023, 02:56:20 PMWestern European countries have the additional issue of having lots of muslims in their cities. And as ISIS showed: a lot of them are willing to kill, and a lot are willing to accommodate the first group.
Expect terror alert warning to go up a few notches

"A lot" is relative.  There's roughly 1 billion Muslims in the world.  100 killers is a small percentage.  There's a lot more Christian killers in the US per year than that.  Good boys that go to Church every Sunday.

Quotea small percentage of none would be better.

Quote from: mongers on October 09, 2023, 04:32:18 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 03:48:46 PM

QuoteThere are some 1,500 bodies of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli territory, Channel 13 news reports, without citing a source.

The Israel Defense Forces has estimated it has killed hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen who infiltrated Israel since Saturday morning.

On the Gaza side, at least 687 people have been killed after Israel launched air strikes on the Palestinian enclave in response.

If true this would be a sign of just how crazily large the incursion was.

I heard say that sources mentioned 1,000 attackers, a number Hamas also put out. So that 1,600 killed is believable.

Also in the videos from the border break-ins there were plenty of unarmed civilians running through into Israeli, some just seemed to go to see what was on the other side, I'm guessing other's went exploring/looting and other's probably became involved in some of the kidnappings, ad hoc or planned.

Given they were entering a war zone, I'd not be surprised if hundreds of those were also killed.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2023, 04:34:03 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 03:42:23 PM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2023, 02:56:20 PMWestern European countries have the additional issue of having lots of muslims in their cities. And as ISIS showed: a lot of them are willing to kill, and a lot are willing to accommodate the first group.
Expect terror alert warning to go up a few notches

"A lot" is relative.  There's roughly 1 billion Muslims in the world.  100 killers is a small percentage.  There's a lot more Christian killers in the US per year than that.  Good boys that go to Church every Sunday.

a small percentage of none would be better.

Quote from: Maladict on October 09, 2023, 04:49:28 PMThis thread is giving me Old Languish vibes.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 04:10:21 PM

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Jews are the natives of an Israel. Arab Muslims are the colonizers.

Quote from: PJL on October 09, 2023, 03:52:39 PMCuriously, the one area where Israel did in fact stop 'colonising' was in Gaza, and it's the one area that has given it the most grief. So that's not the issue. And arguably what may happen now (hopefully) is probably the best chance of stopping the pre-war situation, through another military occupation. Not nice for the people living there, but I suspect will actually be a bit better for them then living under Hamas rule.

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 04:57:56 PMAnother occupation will not change much.  Hamas will be quiet for a few years, that's all.  We'll see another round in two or three years, like always.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 04:10:21 PM

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Jews are the natives of an Israel. Arab Muslims are the colonizers.

Quote from: FunkMonk on October 09, 2023, 02:13:33 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 01:53:58 PMIsrael isn't going to destroy Hamas.  Hamas will live on the hearts of every child that believe Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

?

Quote from: PJL on October 09, 2023, 05:09:18 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 04:57:56 PMAnother occupation will not change much.  Hamas will be quiet for a few years, that's all.  We'll see another round in two or three years, like always.

You're under the misapprehension that things are still the same - it's not. The Israel of 2 weeks ago ain't coming back. Hamas will still be around, but their days of ruling Gaza will soon be over. They will be less of a menace than they were previously. Longer term who knows what happens, but what I can assure you is the status quo of the last 20 years is most definitely over.

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 05:41:14 PMOther research exists on the subject, but most of these people are the descendants the Jews who inhabited the area since long ago and decided (or were forced) to convert to Islam.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2023, 05:42:21 PMOne of the things they teach is that Jews are descended from pigs and apes.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2023, 06:07:03 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 05:41:14 PMOther research exists on the subject, but most of these people are the descendants the Jews who inhabited the area since long ago and decided (or were forced) to convert to Islam.

That's not exactly what your article says.

Quote from: viper37 on October 09, 2023, 06:34:32 PMNomads tend to wander around.  This region of the world wasn't exactly stable over the thousand of years of humanity with different empires colliding in the area.

Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_the_Palestinians) expands further on it with other sources:

Haaretz had decent article (https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/2015-10-20/ty-article/palestinians-and-jews-share-genetic-roots/0000017f-dc0e-df9c-a17f-fe1e57730000), with links to another study, about the same subject.  Druze, Palestinians and modern Jewish Israelis all share a similar genetic makeup.


Both claims are as valid or invalid as one another.  Palestinian nationalism is just as valid as Zionism.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 04:10:21 PM

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Jews are the natives of an Israel. Arab Muslims are the colonizers.

Quote from: grumbler on October 09, 2023, 09:49:29 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 09, 2023, 04:10:21 PM

QuoteBut the constant colonization had to stop.

Jews are the natives of an Israel. Arab Muslims are the colonizers.

Not many Jews are 2000 years old, so you cannot be talking about the original Jews of Judea and Samaria.  Most modern Jews, and Palestinians, are natives of greater Palestine. 

Quote from: mongers on October 09, 2023, 04:51:35 PM

Quote from: Maladict on October 09, 2023, 04:49:28 PMThis thread is giving me Old Languish vibes.

:yes:

Some people are also bringing their baggage along too.

Quote from: Oexmelin on October 10, 2023, 01:32:08 AMMuch like American settlers arrived on Indigenous lands with the authorization of the federal government, yet it doesn't seem quite right to say it wasn't colonization.

QuoteSo, from a general view Hamas can be seen as having overwhelming support from the population of Gaza, it's about as common to not support them as it is to believe in UFO's in the US, about 40%.

Quote from: Oexmelin on October 10, 2023, 01:32:08 AMMuch like American settlers arrived on Indigenous lands with the authorization of the federal government, yet it doesn't seem quite right to say it wasn't colonization.

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 02:32:24 AM

QuoteSo, from a general view Hamas can be seen as having overwhelming support from the population of Gaza, it's about as common to not support them as it is to believe in UFO's in the US, about 40%.

Kim has 104% support in north Korea.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2023, 01:56:07 AM

Quote from: Oexmelin on October 10, 2023, 01:32:08 AMMuch like American settlers arrived on Indigenous lands with the authorization of the federal government, yet it doesn't seem quite right to say it wasn't colonization.

What is the essence of colonization? 

Would Indians moving to Uganda under British administration be colonizers?

Quotethe action or process of settling among and establishing control over the indigenous people of an area.

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 02:57:02 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 02:32:24 AM

QuoteSo, from a general view Hamas can be seen as having overwhelming support from the population of Gaza, it's about as common to not support them as it is to believe in UFO's in the US, about 40%.

Kim has 104% support in north Korea.

I would love to see reliable data that refutes me if you have it?

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 03:32:19 AMThats the point.
Trying to poll the popularity of the leadership in a place where not supporting them might have bad consequences is a very difficult task.

QuoteAlso notable is that Gazans continue to express disapproval of Hamas' policies towards Israel. About half (53%) agree at least somewhat that "Hamas should stop calling for Israel's destruction, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders," a percentage that has held steady over the last three years. 59% of Gazans also agree that Hamas should give up its armed units in favor of PA officers in Gaza. Likewise, nearly two-thirds of Gazans would agree at least somewhat with the need for Hamas to preserve the cease-fire in both Gaza and the West Bank.

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 03:55:24 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 03:32:19 AMThats the point.
Trying to poll the popularity of the leadership in a place where not supporting them might have bad consequences is a very difficult task.

https://apnews.com/article/hamas-middle-east-science-32095d8e1323fc1cad819c34da08fd87 (https://apnews.com/article/hamas-middle-east-science-32095d8e1323fc1cad819c34da08fd87)

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-poll-shows-gazans-pragmatic-now-not-long-term (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-poll-shows-gazans-pragmatic-now-not-long-term)

Gaza is not North Korea, polling is done all the time, even though, as you say, it's complicated. The second link seems to show a more complex picture of how much support Hamas has and that support of Hamas is not support of genocide.

QuoteAlso notable is that Gazans continue to express disapproval of Hamas' policies towards Israel. About half (53%) agree at least somewhat that "Hamas should stop calling for Israel's destruction, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders," a percentage that has held steady over the last three years. 59% of Gazans also agree that Hamas should give up its armed units in favor of PA officers in Gaza. Likewise, nearly two-thirds of Gazans would agree at least somewhat with the need for Hamas to preserve the cease-fire in both Gaza and the West Bank.

QuoteMethodological Note: This analysis is based on a face-to-face survey, conducted June 6-21, 2022, with a true random, geographical probability sample of 513 Palestinian adult (age 18+) residents of Gaza. The author personally reviewed the questionnaire's translation, sampling procedures and quality controls, assurances of confidentiality, and other fieldwork protocols with the entire Palestinian professional team, based in Beit Sahour on the West Bank. The statistical margin of error for a sample of this size and nature is 6 percent, at the 95% confidence level. Additional methodological details, including full responses to all questions in the survey, are available on request, or on the Washington Institute's new interactive polling data platform.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 09, 2023, 03:48:46 PMIf true this would be a sign of just how crazily large the incursion was.

QuoteIn one of the most striking elements of their preparations, Hamas constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing and trained to storm it, the source close to Hamas said, adding they even made videos of the manoeuvres.

"Israel surely saw them but they were convinced that Hamas wasn't keen on getting into a confrontation," the source said.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2023, 01:22:57 AMThe Jews arrived first with the permission of the Ottomans and then the British, the two legal administrators of the territory.  If they were colonizers, aren't all immigrants colonizers?

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 10, 2023, 08:57:56 AMAlthough, weren't they more imperial than colonial states? Which, in fairness, just begs the question of how to describe early Zionists.

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 09:19:34 AMAlso an annoying point I often see from the useful idiots is the whole "Jews have been there for millenia. Its natural homeland! Palestinians have other countries!" thing.
A whole lot of ignorance of just where the Palestinian population come from- a huge chunk of their makeup comes from the native population who were Christianised under the Romans then heavily Islam/Arabised under the various muslim empires.

The Palestinians sadly seem to have themselves (well, their ancestors) to blame with much of this- it previously being considered socially desirable to concentrate on that one bit of your heritage that can be traced back to the Arab homeland.

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 09:19:34 AMAlso an annoying point I often see from the useful idiots is the whole "Jews have been there for millenia. Its natural homeland! Palestinians have other countries!" thing.
A whole lot of ignorance of just where the Palestinian population come from- a huge chunk of their makeup comes from the native population who were Christianised under the Romans then heavily Islam/Arabised under the various muslim empires.

The Palestinians sadly seem to have themselves (well, their ancestors) to blame with much of this- it previously being considered socially desirable to concentrate on that one bit of your heritage that can be traced back to the Arab homeland.

Quote from: Oexmelin on October 10, 2023, 01:02:48 AMA country can be rooted in colonialism despite its population not being overwhelmingly direct descendants of settlers.

Quote from: Oexmelin on October 10, 2023, 01:32:08 AMMuch like American settlers arrived on Indigenous lands with the authorization of the federal government, yet it doesn't seem quite right to say it wasn't colonization.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 10, 2023, 04:21:26 AMEdit: Incidentally this is partl why I suspect Hamas have also been preparing for this stage of the Israeli response too.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 09:10:04 AMIt occurs to me that the people who think that the Jewish population who settled in what is now the state of Israel we're always there may not understand the history of how the state of Israel was created.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 09:58:16 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 09:10:04 AMIt occurs to me that the people who think that the Jewish population who settled in what is now the state of Israel we're always there may not understand the history of how the state of Israel was created.

The idea that they were "always there" is silly, but the idea that means they have less right to be there than the Arabs is confusing and dumb. The Ottoman Empire had 900,000 Jews, almost none of whom were ever going to be allowed to remain in Islamist or Arab Nationalist post-Ottoman states.

Were they just supposed to fuck off and die? Or did it make sense for them to have some small enclave out of the huge swathe of Ottoman lands to try and live in?

And the Ottomans were not "colonizers" of the Levant, that's stupid and dumb, and attempting to water down the word "colonizer" to basically mean "anything."

There have always been large movements of peoples and cultures throughout Anatolia / Middle East/Levant, not all migrations are colonization, not all movements of peoples are colonization.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 10:16:23 AMYou are ignoring entirely the influx of populations which occurred after the Balfour declaration, and particularly after the creation of the state of Israel. If you read the history of the region, there was not much if any conflict between the Jewish and Palestinian communities until the Palestinian started to be displaced from their historical homelands.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 10:16:23 AMTo put it bluntly the local Palestinian communities did not treat the Jewish communities the way the Israeli community is now treating the Palestinians.

Quote from: Josquius on October 10, 2023, 09:19:34 AMAlso an annoying point I often see from the useful idiots is the whole "Jews have been there for millenia. Its natural homeland! Palestinians have other countries!" thing.
A whole lot of ignorance of just where the Palestinian population come from- a huge chunk of their makeup comes from the native population who were Christianised under the Romans then heavily Islam/Arabised under the various muslim empires.

The Palestinians sadly seem to have themselves (well, their ancestors) to blame with much of this- it previously being considered socially desirable to concentrate on that one bit of your heritage that can be traced back to the Arab homeland.

Quote from: Tamas on October 10, 2023, 11:14:32 AMSo I think the reason why Palestine is the only of the dozens of such disputed territories being focused is because a) the Jews are involved and b) the Palestinians are resorting to terrorism to get their voice heard.

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 01:50:16 AMI've been trying to find reliable numbers to see how big support Hamas has in Gaza. I've seen everything from 95% to almost nothing.

Most reliable numbers point to something like more than half of all Palestinians support Hamas over Fatah, with numbers from June 2023. Their support seems to go down in calmer times and up in times of conflict. Their support is larger in Gaza, something like 55-60% and amongst the younger population.

That's to compare with the Nazi's peaking at 37% of the vote, can't really find popularity numbers for later years. In parliamentary democracies it's very very rare to have a party with over 50% of the popular vote.

So, from a general view Hamas can be seen as having overwhelming support from the population of Gaza, it's about as common to not support them as it is to believe in UFO's in the US, about 40%.

The scenes of support from around the world for the terrorist acts and the horrible triumphal scenes from inside Gaza when the captives were driven around reinforces this view.

In short, their support inside Gaza seems less than I would have guessed, but still very very solid. This terrorist act seems to have popular support behind it, although it can be hard to know that.

Edit: According to wiki there's something like 2.4 million inhabitants in Gaza. The population being young means that I should guess that there's about 1 million adult supporters of Hamas. And in my mind they are fully deserving of the dildo of consequences, but something like 1-1.5 million non-adults or non-supporters of Hamas are stuck there also. It's an absolutely horrible nightmare.

Quote from: Tamas on October 10, 2023, 11:14:32 AMSo I think the reason why Palestine is the only of the dozens of such disputed territories being focused is because a) the Jews are involved and b) the Palestinians are resorting to terrorism to get their voice heard.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 11:43:55 AMFrom what I read, most Palestinians seem to view Hamas as less corrupt than Fatah.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 11:43:55 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 01:50:16 AMI've been trying to find reliable numbers to see how big support Hamas has in Gaza. I've seen everything from 95% to almost nothing.

Most reliable numbers point to something like more than half of all Palestinians support Hamas over Fatah, with numbers from June 2023. Their support seems to go down in calmer times and up in times of conflict. Their support is larger in Gaza, something like 55-60% and amongst the younger population.

That's to compare with the Nazi's peaking at 37% of the vote, can't really find popularity numbers for later years. In parliamentary democracies it's very very rare to have a party with over 50% of the popular vote.

So, from a general view Hamas can be seen as having overwhelming support from the population of Gaza, it's about as common to not support them as it is to believe in UFO's in the US, about 40%.

The scenes of support from around the world for the terrorist acts and the horrible triumphal scenes from inside Gaza when the captives were driven around reinforces this view.

In short, their support inside Gaza seems less than I would have guessed, but still very very solid. This terrorist act seems to have popular support behind it, although it can be hard to know that.

Edit: According to wiki there's something like 2.4 million inhabitants in Gaza. The population being young means that I should guess that there's about 1 million adult supporters of Hamas. And in my mind they are fully deserving of the dildo of consequences, but something like 1-1.5 million non-adults or non-supporters of Hamas are stuck there also. It's an absolutely horrible nightmare.

From what I read, most Palestinians seem to view Hamas as less corrupt than Fatah.

A majority reject the extremist views of Hamas, but a solid core approve of their terrorism actions and their objective of a Palestine without Jews.

Just like a solid percentage of Israelis approve of the colonization and the constant destruction and killing of Palestinian civilians, regardless of their involvement with Hamas.

75 years of warfare tend to do that to people.  I don't think the Siegebreaker view is the odd, isolated one among the Israeli.

QuoteIsrael's military has discovered unspeakable horrors in an Israeli community that was attacked by Hamas on Saturday, including dozens of dead babies, some with of their heads chopped off, Israeli media reported.

According to local Israeli outlet i24News, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers moved into Kfar Aza, one of the communities Hamas terrorists invaded early Saturday morning, and discovered about 40 dead babies, some decapitated — highlighting the brutality of the invading forces.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 10, 2023, 11:31:18 AMPre-47, there was always a small but material Jewish community in the Palestinian region.  There was a good deal of immigration in the Ottoman period and good deal more in the British mandatory period.  IMO it makes zero sense to refer to that immigration as colonization, any more than it makes sense to refer to Chinese colonizing the lower east side of New York city or Dominicans colonizing Washington Heights.  Colonization implies territorial and jurisdictional control and the Jews had none.  They were admitted under Ottoman/British law and subject to their jurisdiction.

Pre 48 the only ones colonizing Palestine were the Ottomans and British.

The events of 1948-1967 are familiar to most and while any number of claims or judgments can be made, the concept of colonization simply doesn't fit.

Post 67, the 21st century era build up of settlements in the occupied areas of the West Bank does fit within the rubric of colonization.  But that phenomenon has nothing to do with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas does not particularly object to the WB settlements, it objects to Israel tout court.  It isn't bombing Modin, it is shelling Ashkelon.

I make these points for the sake of accuracy or clarity not as pleading for the Israeli side.  I personally do not take the term "colonial" as the all purpose term of abuse that some do.  I happen to live in a nation founded by colonizers out of colonial states.  I do think such an origin creates certain continuing moral obligations to persons displaced by that process, and that is an area where both the USA and Israel have historically failed rather badly.  But again that is not the matter at issue today in Gaza.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 10, 2023, 12:13:19 PMIs the reverse true?  Are Palestinian actions the cause of the rise of the far-right in Israel?

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:02:13 PMIf the indigenous population of Palestinians was not displaced through a process of colonization, what would you call that process?

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Quote'Hard questions' will be asked after mass killing of civilians: Analyst
Sultan Barakat, a professor in conflict mediation and humanitarian studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, says the massacre of Israeli civilians should not have been carried out and Hamas leaders will investigate what happened.

"I suspect Hamas, when the dust settles, will be asking hard questions whether they could have achieved their objective without going into the civilian areas. I don't think these were predetermined attacks, particularly the music festival. They really could have hurt Israel just by concentrating on military bases and security checkpoints, which on its own is a great win for them," Barakat told Al Jazeera.

At least 260 people died at the Supernova music festival after gunmen arrived in paragliders, trucks and motorcycles.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 10, 2023, 12:34:10 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:02:13 PMIf the indigenous population of Palestinians was not displaced through a process of colonization, what would you call that process?

War.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 12:35:09 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

I disagree--I think it is usually prudent to believe what they tell us. Hamas was talking hostage swap on day 1, and every indication is they assumed Israel would just do a few rounds of bombings and then negotiate.

Something worth remembering is not all actors make good decisions, and Hamas is a terrorist group with a shaky command structure--apparently only a small part of their military command even was involved in this operation's planning, which means lots of the organization would never have had a chance to weigh in or even possibly warn that the idea could be bad. It is not dissimilar to how Putin's Russia made decisions leading up to the Ukraine invasion, where lots of false ideas (like that they could just drop a few special forces around Kyiv and take the city's airport--that entire special forces team died to the last man) spread because of no critical voices in Putin's circle.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 01:06:41 PM

Quote'Hard questions' will be asked after mass killing of civilians: Analyst
Sultan Barakat, a professor in conflict mediation and humanitarian studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, says the massacre of Israeli civilians should not have been carried out and Hamas leaders will investigate what happened.

"I suspect Hamas, when the dust settles, will be asking hard questions whether they could have achieved their objective without going into the civilian areas. I don't think these were predetermined attacks, particularly the music festival. They really could have hurt Israel just by concentrating on military bases and security checkpoints, which on its own is a great win for them," Barakat told Al Jazeera.

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 01:44:45 PMAlso difficult to see how they cold mobilize 1-2000 invaders, mock Israeli villages for practice, personel and equipment to fire 5000 missiles on a given day, equipment to go through the fence, and only have small numbers in the leadership inowing about it.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 09:01:20 AMFair point. But an imperialist power can also be a colonizer. See North America.

To the extent the British brought in outside populations which displaced indigenous populations, I think it can fairly  be called a colonizer.

Also, Israel doesn't exist without the Balfour declaration.

QuoteBut has there been any indication of Israeli objectives and policy beyond that?

QuoteEh, based on Hamas calls for peace I think they are actually not that prepared for this stage.

Hamas own leadership claims only a small number of top military commanders knew of the attacks beforehand. That suggests the entire organization probably was not preparing for this, which is probably part of how it was never detected by Israeli intelligence.

QuoteDifficult to see a group tasked with taking hostages end up decapitating babies. Could they possibly have been medicated with anxiety-lowering medication, gang war style?

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 02:03:02 PMDifficult to see a group tasked with taking hostages end up decapitating babies. Could they possibly have been medicated with anxiety-lowering medication, gang war style?

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 01:54:48 PMGood points.

So maybe Hamas - or the decision makers within Hamas who organized the attack - thought "this will be a daring and impressive strike, and we'll get hostages that we can use for leverage" - and either they didn't appreciate how the massacre part of the action would change perception, or the massacre part weren't planned but happened somewhat spontaneously.

If so, then for Israel the main objective at this point is to draw a hard line and make the consequences so severe that Hamas or any other actors do not engage in such acts again. There doesn't really need to be any further goals or plan beyond massive reprisal on the theory that Hamas - and Palestinians in general - will learn "not to do this again" even if they build up the capability to (which Israel will do its best destroy).

Does that sound about right?

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 01:07:27 PMOk, but isn't that the same mechanism by which the US displaced much of its Indigenous population?

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 02:21:56 PMI've been avoiding exploring detailed evidence of the massacres. Is the decapitation of babies an established fact or still in the category of "early reports during a conflict that may or may not turn out to be true"?

QuoteYeah, but there are logistical limitations there. Ruthless murderers, rapists and looters don't just stand arund a fence waiting for it to drop. And if, like you say, it was just some dudes taking an opportunity what does that say about the general dude in the area?

Quote from: Josephus on October 10, 2023, 02:52:21 PMThe Israelis will do their utmost to get the hostages out. I am hearing that the US have, or are about to deploy, special forces specializing in this very thing. It will be difficult but they'll do what they can. If there's one thing about the Israeli mentality it's they don't sacrifice their own. Last time Hamas took a hostage, a soldier named Gilad Shalit, Israel ended up trading 1,000 terrorists to get him back. That's what Hamas is counting. The more hostages they have the better bargaining position they'll be in

Plus there are Americans among the hostages too, hence U.S. involvement. If there were no hostages, Gaza would be an apocalyptic wasteland by now. It probably will end up that way.

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 02:21:56 PM

Quote from: Threviel on October 10, 2023, 02:03:02 PMDifficult to see a group tasked with taking hostages end up decapitating babies. Could they possibly have been medicated with anxiety-lowering medication, gang war style?

I've been avoiding exploring detailed evidence of the massacres. Is the decapitation of babies an established fact or still in the category of "early reports during a conflict that may or may not turn out to be true"?

Quote from: Barrister on October 10, 2023, 02:40:33 PMThe flag store was out of Israel flags.  Looking at Amazon, but they'd all take a week or more to get delivered. :(

Quote from: The Brain on October 10, 2023, 03:06:26 PM

Quote from: Barrister on October 10, 2023, 02:40:33 PMThe flag store was out of Israel flags.  Looking at Amazon, but they'd all take a week or more to get delivered. :(

I wouldn't dare display an Israeli flag in Sweden.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 02:28:13 PMI don't follow your logic.  How does massive reprisal accomplish anything other than ensuring that there will be further reprisals against Israel well into the future.

QuoteI understand the basic political and emotional need to lash out - but that is not what your analysis is based on.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 02:53:01 PMUnfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:24:31 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on October 10, 2023, 12:13:19 PMIs the reverse true?  Are Palestinian actions the cause of the rise of the far-right in Israel?

It is an interesting question.  I think the peace process in the 80s was more of a causal factor.  It was a right wing extremist who assassinated the Israeli PM in response to Israel coming close to finding a resolution with the Palestinians. 

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 03:11:10 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 02:53:01 PMUnfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

That's fucking grim :(

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 03:09:34 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 02:28:13 PMI don't follow your logic.  How does massive reprisal accomplish anything other than ensuring that there will be further reprisals against Israel well into the future.

The logic is that if Israel hits them hard enough, they'll think twice about doing it again.

Whether that logic holds up in the long term or whether it escalates the cycle of violence is another question. But the fundamental logic is one of deterrence based on overwhelming and destructive violence in response to attacks.

Personally I believe that ultimately Hamas - or successor organizations if Hamas is eradicated - are going to be willing and able to keep going in the face of anything Israel is able and willing to do.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 02:53:01 PMUnfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

Quote from: PJL on October 10, 2023, 11:46:57 AMIt's not just an Israel/Palestine thing IMO. I've come to the conclusion that a third of humanity are just nasty, plain & simple. You may quibble on the exact numbers, but I reckon that figure is a good ballpark estimate.

Quote from: Legbiter on October 10, 2023, 03:46:33 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 02:53:01 PMUnfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

The really gnarly stuff was from a couple of days ago on twitter (like that German rave festival chick being terrorized before her desecrated body was shown laid out in Gaza street being spat on, captives being tortured and executed, grannies set on fire, etc) but that's thankfully been cleaned up. Seeing (and hearing) these clips is harrowing so don't go looking for them. They'll be seared into my mind, probably for as long as I will live.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 11:46:42 AMIt is actually possible Hamas is less corrupt than Fatah. Fatah and the PLO on a percentile scale, are basically at "100%" corruption. So even if Hamas is "only" 75% corrupt, that is still a significant amount less corrupt than Fatah. Now, Hamas is also a violent terrorist group, which definitely outweighs any positives in their being less corrupt administratively.

Quote from: Razgovory on October 10, 2023, 03:26:29 PMYou'd think the constant rocket attacks, suicide bombings, armed gunmen and casual murder would harden the hearts of the Israelis.  Nope, it was the prospect of the peace in the 1980's that turned them to the right.

Quote from: mongers on October 10, 2023, 04:46:46 PMThe Beirut summer 1982 siege could be a useful guide to what might happen now.

Then the Israeli's cornered a Palestinian terrorist group in a heavily built up urban area up against the sea. IIRC West Beirut's population  was under a 10th of Gaza's and by area similarly smaller, I think it took over a month for the siege to be ended.
So I can see Palestinians killed toping 10,000, perhaps as high as 50,000 if the Israelis try to end it with occupation. 

And of course Arafat and the PLO were people you or some intermediators Could negotiate with, Hamas in contrast  will not go into exile, so I expect them to expire in the rubble surround by mountains of corpses.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:06:03 PMIt must be nice to view the world in black and white like you do.  Bad guys, good guys. Cobra on one side, GI Joes on the other.  Everything is so clear, so simple.  No nuance, no grey areas.  Palestinians, all bad, Israelis, all good.

Quote from: mongers on October 10, 2023, 04:46:46 PMThe Beirut summer 1982 siege could be a useful guide to what might happen now.

Then the Israeli's cornered a Palestinian terrorist group in a heavily built up urban area up against the sea. IIRC West Beirut's population  was under a 10th of Gaza's and by area similarly smaller, I think it took over a month for the siege to be ended.
So I can see Palestinians killed toping 10,000, perhaps as high as 50,000 if the Israelis try to end it with occupation. 

And of course Arafat and the PLO were people you or some intermediators Could negotiate with, Hamas in contrast  will not go into exile, so I expect them to expire in the rubble surround by mountains of corpses.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:17:25 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Someone I know from another board has Palestinian family and lived there for a while.

I've never been on very good terms with the guy, but I respect him and his opinions on the conflict, without agreeing entirely with his vision.

His opinion on Hamas is that it's a classic terror group move: they don't care what you or I think about them, they don't care what Jordan and Egypt think.  What they hope to achieve is to convince Israel that the price they pay to occupy Palestine is so high that it ain't worth it.  Eventually, they will have no choice but to withdraw from a huge part of the occupied territories because their civilian population will have had enough.

I do not believe Hamas has any realistic chance of seeing this happening.  Israel will reduce the entire Gaza strip to rubble before they cede a contiguous territory to Palestinians in the West Bank.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 09:58:16 AMThe idea that they were "always there" is silly, but the idea that means they have less right to be there than the Arabs is confusing and dumb. The Ottoman Empire had 900,000 Jews, almost none of whom were ever going to be allowed to remain in Islamist or Arab Nationalist post-Ottoman states.

Quote from: Barrister on October 10, 2023, 03:31:26 PMSo I deal with the principle of deterrence all the time in the context of criminal law.

Deterrence is quite obviously a less than perfect solution.  Criminals frequently commit crimes even knowing the risk of going to jail is high.

But the absence of deterrence is even worse.  If criminals know they can commit a crime without consequence, the rate of that crime shoots up.

This often comes up with shoplifting.  Sometimes stores go "it's only stuff, we don't want our employees to be hurt, so let's not try to physically stop shoplifters".  Which is a perfectly rational analysis.  Problem is if/when it becomes common knowledge that a given store won't stop shoplifters that store becomes a magnet for shoplifters.

So some level of Israeli deterrence is almost certainly necessary and required - even though nobody is under any illusions it will stop all future attacks.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:17:25 PMHis opinion on Hamas is that it's a classic terror group move: they don't care what you or I think about them, they don't care what Jordan and Egypt think.  What they hope to achieve is to convince Israel that the price they pay to occupy Palestine is so high that it ain't worth it.  Eventually, they will have no choice but to withdraw from a huge part of the occupied territories because their civilian population will have had enough.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 10, 2023, 05:36:30 PMWith respect, that is failing to understand what Hamas is about.  They don't make any distinction between occupied or non-occupied territories.  Right now they are attacking lands originally assigned to Israel in the UN partition plan.  Their objective is and always has been the complete extirpation of Israel and its replacement by an Islamic theocracy that would either entirely Judenrein or with the few surviving Jews reduced to dhimmi-hood.

Quote from: FunkMonk on October 10, 2023, 04:19:11 PMJesus that is horrifying.

Somehow I doubt the Israelis will be interested in trading 1,000 terrorists for 1 captured Israeli, as was alluded to earlier.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:29:51 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 09:58:16 AMThe idea that they were "always there" is silly, but the idea that means they have less right to be there than the Arabs is confusing and dumb. The Ottoman Empire had 900,000 Jews, almost none of whom were ever going to be allowed to remain in Islamist or Arab Nationalist post-Ottoman states.

That's not a really relevant statistic, since the area of conflict is Palestine.
There was likely many more Arabs under Ottoman rule in the Ottoman Empire than Jews.

Since the Empire ceased to exists in 1922, there were a little over 80 000 Jews living in Ottoman Palestine:
Jewish and non Jewish population of Palestine (https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-and-non-jewish-population-of-israel-palestine-1517-present) 1517-present.

Up until the creation of Israel, there were always more Arabs than Jews in Palestine.

I don't think any one people can claim to have an exclusive right to the territory, or more right than the other.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 06:59:17 PMI addressed all of this in previous posts—where the point I made was: 900,000 Jews were expelled or fled serious Arab abuse throughout the former Ottoman territories. That is before even factoring in the Holocaust refugees. As Sheilbh has noted, both Britain and America, among a number of other countries, were hostile to taking them in.

Were they just supposed to fuck off and die? Or did it maybe make some logical sense to go to Palestine where Jews had (legally under the laws of the Ottomans) bought up large tracts of land for settlement?

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 07:14:37 PMI disagree with these world views expressed by the Raz and Siegebreakers of this world.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 10, 2023, 02:29:51 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 01:07:27 PMOk, but isn't that the same mechanism by which the US displaced much of its Indigenous population?

No it's not remotely the same mechanism.

Take the example of Hebron.  There is a Jewish community there now of a few hundred people in a settlement recognized by the state.  Are they colonists?  Arguably so - Hebron is part of the territories occupied in Israel in the 67 war.  But hardly "cowboys and Indians" when compared to the large urban population of Hebron.

The settlement is not the first Jewish community there though.  There was a significant Jewish presence in Hebron in the Ottoman period, tracing back for many centuries.  What happened to them?  There was a massacre in the 20s and another in the 30s.  In 1948 the Jordanians took over and forbid all Jews from the land.  Does that make the Jordanians the colonial cowboys in this scenario? 

Or does the analogy just not work because the situations are not really analogous.

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:17:25 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Someone I know from another board has Palestinian family and lived there for a while.

I've never been on very good terms with the guy, but I respect him and his opinions on the conflict, without agreeing entirely with his vision.

His opinion on Hamas is that it's a classic terror group move: they don't care what you or I think about them, they don't care what Jordan and Egypt think.  What they hope to achieve is to convince Israel that the price they pay to occupy Palestine is so high that it ain't worth it.  Eventually, they will have no choice but to withdraw from a huge part of the occupied territories because their civilian population will have had enough.

I do not believe Hamas has any realistic chance of seeing this happening.  Israel will reduce the entire Gaza strip to rubble before they cede a contiguous territory to Palestinians in the West Bank.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 09, 2023, 10:18:50 AMAlso Ynet is reporting that the head of Egyptian intelligence warned Netanyahu ten days before the attack that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place around Gaza and this was dismissed by Netanyahu who, reportedly, said that the IDF was focused on fighting terror in the West Bank where attacks were actively being carried out.

Netanyahu's office has called the report "a lie".

Again I think the mood of national unity is going to be short-lived. It will be political very quickly (in a way I think this is possibly, like the protests, a sign of the health of Israeli democracy despite all the concerning stuff). We've already seen Haaretz explicitly blame Netanyahu. I don't think this will be the end of reports about how and why the focus was on the West Bank. At the same time Netanyahu and his coalition were attacking the security apparatus as being infected by the left because of Shin Bet, Mossad etc leaders saying the divisions over judicial reforms were weakening Israeli society and security - they were not just causing the protests but also reservists refusing call ups. I think the coalition will return to that line of attack.

I suspect this means we might not see a national unity government - in practical terms I think this war will be prosecuted by what, reportedly, Netanyahu considers to be a dysfunctional security cabinet which includes extremists on the far right. I think that is concerning. I also think Israeli politics will be very combustible as these types of stories come forward. From the outside I can't see how Netanyahu can survive, but I think we've all thought that before - but I think this may entrench further and deeper which is not good either.

QuoteIsraeli media reports now confirm that the government did receive clear warnings from Egyptian intelligence about the imminent attack that occurred on October 7.

Initially, the Prime Minister's office issued a flat denial after the first report, but then they reversed their stance and admitted to receiving these warnings.

As the conflict between Hamas militants and Israel enters its third day, reports indicate that Israeli intelligence agencies may have been caught off guard.

Egyptian intelligence officials reportedly warned Israel about a significant threat, but Israeli security agencies were said to have misinterpreted the situation.

An Egyptian intelligence official stated that Israeli officials were primarily focused on the West Bank and underestimated the threat from Gaza.

The Israeli administration under Benjamin Netanyahu had been preoccupied with addressing violence in the West Bank, often linked to tensions with Jewish settlers.

This revelation raises questions about the government's initial response to the warnings and how they handled the situation.

Quote from: Jacob on October 10, 2023, 03:11:10 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 10, 2023, 02:53:01 PMUnfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

That's fucking grim :(

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 09:11:21 PMYou have justified forcing Palestinians off their land because war and now because of some at least partial occupation going all the way back to the 20s.

Quote from: Josephus on October 11, 2023, 06:37:35 AMAs I said very early on, it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis knew about this beforehand. This conflict ticks a lot of boxes in Netanyahu's "things I need to do" list.

1. Unity government
2. Popular support
3. World permission to exterminate Hamas with extreme prejudice

An inquiry may come 2-3 years down the road, but by that point other things would have happened. Bibi is a lot like Trump that way, shit doesn't stick.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 08:05:13 AMSome of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 08:29:16 AM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 08:05:13 AMSome of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Egypt won't have them.

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 08:29:16 AM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 08:05:13 AMSome of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Egypt won't have them.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 08:39:22 AMMy take on the Israeli response is somewhat nuanced. If Israeli intends to reoccupy the strip, brutal as it is--it makes their bombing campaign more reasonable in my mind--there is no way to reoccupy Gaza peacefully and without destroying a lot of infrastructure.

I view this bombing campaign differently if it is purely retaliatory, I think that is a different moral weighting than when you're doing something that may be part of tactical necessity to soften up Hamas defenses (which have likely been continually built since 2007.)

If I was to critique Israel in the moment I would say I think there is no tactical requirement to starve out the Gazans, yes--in traditional siege warfare that is a primary tactic, and yes, Israel (like the United States, India and Turkey) is not a signatory to Geneva AP1, which forbids that sort of siege warfare, but it IMO is not necessary and there is a moral obligation not to impose so much human suffering on civilians unnecessarily.

Quote from: Threviel on October 11, 2023, 08:59:22 AMCould it be an ethnic cleansing on the way? If, like OvB wrote, they plan to roll up Gaza from north to south, could it be that they plan to push everyone into Egypt?

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 09:51:00 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 11, 2023, 08:59:22 AMCould it be an ethnic cleansing on the way? If, like OvB wrote, they plan to roll up Gaza from north to south, could it be that they plan to push everyone into Egypt?

I think it was Hami that reported that, not Otto.

Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2023, 10:17:49 AMWhere does Egypt stand?  Do they keep their end of the prison walls closed because they want nothing to do with Palestinians as well, or are they doing it to create problems for Israel?  It sounds like Egypt is on relatively good terms with Israel, but then forcing them to deal with refugee problem seems unwarranted.  Does Israel really need Egypt back on its list of enemies?

Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2023, 10:57:58 AMOvB - total aside here - my understanding is that there's non-trivial smuggling across the border between North Korea and China; people and goods.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 10:59:00 AM

Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2023, 10:57:58 AMOvB - total aside here - my understanding is that there's non-trivial smuggling across the border between North Korea and China; people and goods.

There is, but apparently Kim got crazy about it during covid--he was reportedly beyond paranoia levels afraid of it, and he has done a lot to completely shut it off in the last 3.5 years.

Quote from: Josquius on October 11, 2023, 11:07:13 AMBut it helps a lot that Egyptian border guards are likely to be very underpaid, poorly controlled, and, very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause in general and probably to the broader idea of violence being necessary.

Quote from: Josephus on October 11, 2023, 06:37:35 AMAs I said very early on, it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis knew about this beforehand. This conflict ticks a lot of boxes in Netanyahu's "things I need to do" list.

1. Unity government
2. Popular support
3. World permission to exterminate Hamas with extreme prejudice

An inquiry may come 2-3 years down the road, but by that point other things would have happened. Bibi is a lot like Trump that way, shit doesn't stick.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 10:45:03 AMAlso, Egypt has historically helped Israel enforce the long running "blockade." In theory the blockade has always intended to only block materials that can be used to develop weapons or military capacity, but some technology and supplies that have both civil and military uses, are blocked as well. Egypt has helped enforce that by inspecting cargo going into Gaza and following Israel's rules on what is allowed in and isn't allowed in.

Anyone expecting Egypt to just help the Palestinians by opening their pockets or borders, that is not going to happen.

Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2023, 08:56:51 AMThanks for the summaries OVB.

My moral problem with the total siege is what is the point? Requiring unconditional surrender of Hamas and the populace? So what if they get it? It's not like Hamas won't stockpile their weapons anyhow and start guerilla warfare once the IDF is there.

QuoteAs I said very early on, it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis knew about this beforehand. This conflict ticks a lot of boxes in Netanyahu's "things I need to do" list.

1. Unity government
2. Popular support
3. World permission to exterminate Hamas with extreme prejudice

An inquiry may come 2-3 years down the road, but by that point other things would have happened. Bibi is a lot like Trump that way, shit doesn't stick.

Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2023, 11:46:57 AMThat being said though - I have no idea what Israel is actually planning to do.  They don't really have any great options.

Quote from: Legbiter on October 11, 2023, 12:50:00 PM

Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2023, 11:46:57 AMThat being said though - I have no idea what Israel is actually planning to do.  They don't really have any great options.

My guess is a couple of months of air strikes on Gaza while they plan how to send ground forces in to root out Hamas. Then a ground invasion of Gaza itself and some kind of occupation.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 12:53:38 PMIsrael occupied Gaza from 67-05, so I don't see any logistical reason it couldn't be done again. The premise of withdrawing was that under a cost benefit analysis it was a lot cheaper to just wall them off, but if that has changed it could re-orient Israel's thinking on it.

That doesn't, of course, move us to any kind of ultimate resolution to the conflict, but it isn't without precedent.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 12:58:23 PM2005 was many years after 1967 FWIW, and the population of the West Bank is several million as well, which Israel also occupies.

Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2023, 01:07:34 PMMaintaining control over a territory is significantly different than establishing control over a territory.

Quote from: Gups on October 11, 2023, 11:25:53 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 11, 2023, 11:07:13 AMBut it helps a lot that Egyptian border guards are likely to be very underpaid, poorly controlled, and, very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause in general and probably to the broader idea of violence being necessary.

Gotta be impressed with your knowledge of teh opinions of Egyptian Border guards. Any factual basis for it?

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 09:15:49 PM

Quote from: viper37 on October 10, 2023, 05:17:25 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 10, 2023, 12:31:24 PMHamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Someone I know from another board has Palestinian family and lived there for a while.

I've never been on very good terms with the guy, but I respect him and his opinions on the conflict, without agreeing entirely with his vision.

His opinion on Hamas is that it's a classic terror group move: they don't care what you or I think about them, they don't care what Jordan and Egypt think.  What they hope to achieve is to convince Israel that the price they pay to occupy Palestine is so high that it ain't worth it.  Eventually, they will have no choice but to withdraw from a huge part of the occupied territories because their civilian population will have had enough.

I do not believe Hamas has any realistic chance of seeing this happening.  Israel will reduce the entire Gaza strip to rubble before they cede a contiguous territory to Palestinians in the West Bank.

Here is an opinion piece in the Globe I think will internet you.  The author makes a similar point to yours and an early point Otto made about the aims of Hamas.  It also goes into some detail regarding why Israel's policies and response make no sense and guarantees endless conflict.  I have gifted it so no need to worry about the paywall

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/LII7G6N6CFC6JD3FLXAAXVEVMM/

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 01:08:28 PMWhen the U.S. occupied Baghdad, population 6.2 million, they allocated 6 brigades for the task. And whilst several major battles broke back out in Baghdad during the occupation, those forces did hold the city for years.

Quote from: viper37 on October 11, 2023, 03:18:29 PM

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 01:08:28 PMWhen the U.S. occupied Baghdad, population 6.2 million, they allocated 6 brigades for the task. And whilst several major battles broke back out in Baghdad during the occupation, those forces did hold the city for years.

Afaik, the US was not alone, there coalition troops and Iraqi police and military patrolling with them too.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 03:17:34 PMI agree--the level of men and heavy equipment already moved to South Israel is basically indication of nothing other than a ground invasion. My guess is they want to plan as extensively as possible though, going into an enemy city is no small thing.

Quote from: viper37 on October 11, 2023, 03:07:41 PMHaarez Editorial also blamed Netanyahu for the Hamas attack. There is dissent, but it is small, because the rethoric is, and will be huge.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 11, 2023, 03:22:42 PMFrom what I've seen the tone is nothing like what I remember of the US post-9/11 - there is (again I think admirably) more argument and fractiousness still.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 10:54:37 AMMassive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

QuoteNow the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 04:44:26 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 10:54:37 AMMassive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

QuoteNow the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 04:46:53 PM

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 04:44:26 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 10:54:37 AMMassive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

QuoteNow the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Really worrying that this could happen when everyone is on a hair trigger.

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 04:59:52 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 04:46:53 PM

Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2023, 04:44:26 PM

Quote from: Hamilcar on October 11, 2023, 10:54:37 AMMassive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

QuoteNow the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Really worrying that this could happen when everyone is on a hair trigger.

Prevalence of social media distorting not just news/information, but possible gov/mil. reactions?

QuoteUS President Joe Biden confirms reports that Hamas terrorists beheaded Israeli children in its surprise onslaught over the weekend.

"It is important for Americans to see what is happening. I have been doing this for a long time. I never thought that I would see... have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children," Biden says during remarks to US Jewish community leaders at a White House roundtable.

"Downplaying Hamas's atrocities and blaming the Jewish people is unthinkable," the president adds.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 11, 2023, 05:36:05 PM

QuoteUS President Joe Biden confirms reports that Hamas terrorists beheaded Israeli children in its surprise onslaught over the weekend.

"It is important for Americans to see what is happening. I have been doing this for a long time. I never thought that I would see... have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children," Biden says during remarks to US Jewish community leaders at a White House roundtable.

"Downplaying Hamas's atrocities and blaming the Jewish people is unthinkable," the president adds.

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 11, 2023, 06:36:05 PMOf course, plenty of people on Twitter are still claiming this isn't true and that Biden is lying.  There's no convincing people who don't want to be convinced.

Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2023, 06:39:46 PM

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 11, 2023, 06:36:05 PMOf course, plenty of people on Twitter are still claiming this isn't true and that Biden is lying.  There's no convincing people who don't want to be convinced.

We all have authorities we trust and others we distrust, which is fair enough. Personally I believe Biden. I wouldn't believe Trump if he said the same thing.

Then, of course, there'll be people online (and "people" online) who'll claim to disbelieve because that disbelief serves a purpose.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 11, 2023, 01:14:07 PM

Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2023, 01:07:34 PMMaintaining control over a territory is significantly different than establishing control over a territory.

Yeah and I agree with OvB's points - especially if it is long term.

The other point is that for all countries except the US you need to make choices. If the IDF is occupying Gaza and the West Bank that might require a different approach in those areas and it might have a knock on effect on Israel's posture elsewhere.

I suppose the other goal with retaliation could be the strategic shock point. Israeli territory was invaded, towns were taken and it took the IDF hours to get there to respond and in some cases were still fighting Hamas one or two days later. For a country like Israel with its history and that has always relied on its deterrence threat that's a huge shock. They may want to try and restore deterrence in this operation by demonstrating the IDF's capabilities - although I'm not sure if attacking or occupying Gaza would really do that.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 11, 2023, 03:22:42 PMI don't know when Netanyahu will go but I don't think it's possible to survive this, especially if more stories come out about warnings. The worst attack in Israeli happened on his watch, it largely affected communities who didn't vote for him and there seems to be a perception (which may be true) that the IDF weren't there to protect those Israelis because they were focusing on protecting the constituents of his coalition allies.

Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2023, 10:53:11 PMI wonder if eventually Israel's plan would be to go in, try to kill every member of Hamas down to the last man, and then get out and seal it a little better this time around.  Sure, there is plenty of raw material in Gaza to replace Hamas, but maybe the replacements will remember how there got to be an opening that they filled, and that an opening can be created again. 

It's often said that harshly suppressing resistance just invites more of it, but I think that's true only up to a point.  Eventually the suppression just becomes too overwhelming to overcome through inspiration.  I think this is the kind of scenario of retribution rather than reoccupation that Israel can get away with, thanks primarily to the unspeakable brutality of Hamas, as long as they don't flatten too much of Gaza while digging out the Hamas fighters.

Quote from: Threviel on October 12, 2023, 07:21:10 AMhttps://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1712439647689728487 (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1712439647689728487)

It seems like Israel is about to show what an enraged western democracy is capable of when the gloves come off. They are really not fucking around. This was presumably a warning shot across the bow to Iran, next time they'll bomb during/after landing.

Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2023, 10:53:11 PMI wonder if eventually Israel's plan would be to go in, try to kill every member of Hamas down to the last man, and then get out and seal it a little better this time around.  Sure, there is plenty of raw material in Gaza to replace Hamas, but maybe the replacements will remember how there got to be an opening that they filled, and that an opening can be created again. 

It's often said that harshly suppressing resistance just invites more of it, but I think that's true only up to a point.  Eventually the suppression just becomes too overwhelming to overcome through inspiration.  I think this is the kind of scenario of retribution rather than reoccupation that Israel can get away with, thanks primarily to the unspeakable brutality of Hamas, as long as they don't flatten too much of Gaza while digging out the Hamas fighters.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 08:48:06 AMAlways been false? The Palestinian case itself proves you're assertion is faulty.

Quote from: Threviel on October 12, 2023, 08:58:31 AMYeah, if harsh suppression crates more resistance then Grozny would be a hotbed of resistance.

Traditionally western nations, well, except the Germans and Belgians, does not have the stomach to go all Roman Empire on their enemies. And I don't think the Israelis will do it either. They are in a shit strategic position where they are more or less forced to occupy Gaza, but then what?

They can't very well impose democracy on Gaza, that'll just lead to Hamas 2.0. There's no secular security organisation within Gaza that can take over, so if they want that they'll have to support Fatah and that'll just be a new shit show leading to eternal occupation.

The best option would perhaps be to ask the UN or something to take over stewardship, but I don't know about the feasibility of that and it carries the risk of an inefficient UN allowing terrorism to rise.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 12, 2023, 09:17:44 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 08:48:06 AMAlways been false? The Palestinian case itself proves you're assertion is faulty.

The aphorism that brutal suppression just makes the resistance strong, is what I am saying is faulty.

The reality is sometimes it makes it stronger, sometimes it doesn't. There is no wiseman absolute rule about it.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 09:27:35 AMI just heard an interview with an international law prof, who took the position that the indiscriminate siege of Gaza is contrary to international law. He noted that Israel needs to take a proportional response, which differentiates between legitimate targets and civilians. The act of shutting off access to water and energy will kill civilians, and the Israelis know it.

He feels strongly that Israel has a right to defend itself, but within the bounds of international law.

This goes to Jacob's point about there, being a very slim chance that Israel could ever hold any moral high ground.

It was also noted that the US has said that it is appropriate for Israel to respond, but the important part is how they respond. The subtlety of that statement might be lost on the cheerleaders, but it seems a clear warning to Israel to stay within the bounds of international law.

QuoteAny attack must be justified by military necessity: an attack or action must be intended to help in the military defeat of the enemy, it must be an attack on a military objective,[1] and the harm caused to civilians or civilian property must be proportional and not "excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated".[1]

Some targets are clearly legitimate, including all military personnel directly engaging in hostilities on behalf of a belligerent party who are not hors de combat or are not members of a neutral country.[2] Some civilian infrastructure, such as rail tracks, roads, ports, airports, and telecommunications used by the military for communications or transporting assets, are all considered to be legitimate military targets.[2]

The legal situation becomes more nuanced and ambiguous if the harm to civilians or civilian property is "excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated". During World War II, there was a song called a thing-ummy-bob, which contains the lines "And it's the girl that makes the thing that holds the oil, that oils the ring that works the thing-ummy-bob, that's going to win the war".[3] Whether such a girl is a legitimate target is an area that probably has to be decided on a case-by-case basis. However, Protocol I suggests that if it is not clear, then the parties to the conflict should err on the side of caution, as Article 52 states: "In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house, or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used".[1][2]

Quote from: DGuller on October 12, 2023, 09:56:47 AMI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 09:27:35 AMI just heard an interview with an international law prof, who took the position that the indiscriminate siege of Gaza is contrary to international law. He noted that Israel needs to take a proportional response, which differentiates between legitimate targets and civilians. The act of shutting off access to water and energy will kill civilians, and the Israelis know it.

QuoteThe prohibition of starvation as a method of warfare does not prohibit siege warfare as long as the purpose is to achieve a military objective and not to starve a civilian population. This is stated in the military manuals of France and New Zealand.[19] Israel's Manual on the Laws of War explains that the prohibition of starvation "clearly implies that the city's inhabitants must be allowed to leave the city during a siege".[20] Alternatively, the besieging party must allow the free passage of foodstuffs and other essential supplies, in accordance with Rule 55. States denounced the use of siege warfare in Bosnia and Herzegovina.[21] It was also condemned by international organizations.[22]

Quote5.19 SIEGES AND ENCIRCLED AREAS
It is lawful to besiege enemy forces. Commanders must seek to make arrangements to
permit the passage of certain consignments and should seek to make arrangements for the
passage of certain categories of civilians, and of religious and medical personnel. Different rules
apply to blockade.589
5.19.1 Siege and Encirclement Permissible. It is lawful to besiege enemy forces, i.e., to
encircle them with a view towards inducing their surrender by cutting them off from
reinforcements, supplies, and communications with the outside world.
590 In particular, it is
permissible to seek to starve enemy forces into submission.


5.20 STARVATION
Starvation is a legitimate method of warfare, but it must be conducted in accordance with
the principles of distinction and proportionality, as well as other law of war rules. Starvation of
civilians as a method of combat is also prohibited in non-international armed conflict.608
5.20.1 Starvation – Distinction. It is a legitimate method of war to starve enemy
forces.
609 For example, it is permitted to destroy food intended as sustenance for enemy forces with a view towards weakening them and diverting their resources.610 Enemy forces, for the
purpose of this rule, means those persons constituting military objectives.611
Starvation specifically directed against the enemy civilian population, however, is
prohibited.612 For example, it would be prohibited to destroy food or water supplies for the
purpose of denying sustenance to the civilian population.
5.20.2 Starvation – Proportionality. Military action intended to starve enemy forces,
however, must not be taken where it is expected to result in incidental harm to the civilian
population that is excessive in relation to the military advantage anticipated to be gained.613
Feasible precautions to reduce the risk of harm to the civilian population or other
reasonable measures to mitigate the burden to the civilian population may also be warranted
when seeking to starve enemy forces.
614 For example, it may be appropriate to seek to
compensate civilians whose food has been inadvertently destroyed.615 Moreover, an Occupying Power would have additional duties to ensure food and water for the civilian population.
616
5.20.3 Starvation and Other Law of War Rules. Starvation as a method of warfare must
comply with other applicable law of war rules. For example, it would be unlawful to poison
food or water.617 Additionally, starvation, for example, may involve sieges or encirclement,
blockades, attacks, or the seizure and destruction of enemy property.618 In each case, the rules
applicable to those situations must be followed.

Quote from: DGuller on October 12, 2023, 09:56:47 AMI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 12, 2023, 10:21:46 AM

Quote from: DGuller on October 12, 2023, 09:56:47 AMI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

I am a supporter of the principle but I'm not OK with this application.

Quote from: DGuller on October 12, 2023, 09:56:47 AMI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 12, 2023, 10:33:21 AM

Quote from: DGuller on October 12, 2023, 09:56:47 AMI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

No, I don't think it is a good move or something that should be done. As a free speech issue though, like they are private employers they have the right to decline employment for any reason aside from membership in a protected class.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 12, 2023, 10:19:30 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 09:27:35 AMI just heard an interview with an international law prof, who took the position that the indiscriminate siege of Gaza is contrary to international law. He noted that Israel needs to take a proportional response, which differentiates between legitimate targets and civilians. The act of shutting off access to water and energy will kill civilians, and the Israelis know it.

The Geneva Conventions do not restrict siege warfare.  Such restrictions were added in the Additional Protocol adopted in 1977 which states the general principle: "Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare is prohibited."  The commentary addresses the question of blockade more specifically:

QuoteThe prohibition of starvation as a method of warfare does not prohibit siege warfare as long as the purpose is to achieve a military objective and not to starve a civilian population. This is stated in the military manuals of France and New Zealand.[19] Israel's Manual on the Laws of War explains that the prohibition of starvation "clearly implies that the city's inhabitants must be allowed to leave the city during a siege".[20] Alternatively, the besieging party must allow the free passage of foodstuffs and other essential supplies, in accordance with Rule 55. States denounced the use of siege warfare in Bosnia and Herzegovina.[21] It was also condemned by international organizations.[22]

Israel is not a signatory to the AP; neither is the USA, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Thailand, among others.
However, most countries have signed it.

I don't have access to Israel's manual of war cited in the commentary, but I would assume it is fairly similar to the US manual, which states as follows:

Quote5.19 SIEGES AND ENCIRCLED AREAS
It is lawful to besiege enemy forces. Commanders must seek to make arrangements to
permit the passage of certain consignments and should seek to make arrangements for the
passage of certain categories of civilians, and of religious and medical personnel. Different rules
apply to blockade.589
5.19.1 Siege and Encirclement Permissible. It is lawful to besiege enemy forces, i.e., to
encircle them with a view towards inducing their surrender by cutting them off from
reinforcements, supplies, and communications with the outside world.
590 In particular, it is
permissible to seek to starve enemy forces into submission.


5.20 STARVATION
Starvation is a legitimate method of warfare, but it must be conducted in accordance with
the principles of distinction and proportionality, as well as other law of war rules. Starvation of
civilians as a method of combat is also prohibited in non-international armed conflict.608
5.20.1 Starvation – Distinction. It is a legitimate method of war to starve enemy
forces.
609 For example, it is permitted to destroy food intended as sustenance for enemy forces with a view towards weakening them and diverting their resources.610 Enemy forces, for the
purpose of this rule, means those persons constituting military objectives.611
Starvation specifically directed against the enemy civilian population, however, is
prohibited.612 For example, it would be prohibited to destroy food or water supplies for the
purpose of denying sustenance to the civilian population.
5.20.2 Starvation – Proportionality. Military action intended to starve enemy forces,
however, must not be taken where it is expected to result in incidental harm to the civilian
population that is excessive in relation to the military advantage anticipated to be gained.613
Feasible precautions to reduce the risk of harm to the civilian population or other
reasonable measures to mitigate the burden to the civilian population may also be warranted
when seeking to starve enemy forces.
614 For example, it may be appropriate to seek to
compensate civilians whose food has been inadvertently destroyed.615 Moreover, an Occupying Power would have additional duties to ensure food and water for the civilian population.
616
5.20.3 Starvation and Other Law of War Rules. Starvation as a method of warfare must
comply with other applicable law of war rules. For example, it would be unlawful to poison
food or water.617 Additionally, starvation, for example, may involve sieges or encirclement,
blockades, attacks, or the seizure and destruction of enemy property.618 In each case, the rules
applicable to those situations must be followed.

The US manual provisions on this subject seem consistent with the AP rule, notwithstanding the lack of an official US signature.

Based on these materials, I do not see how a conclusion could be reached NOW about the legality of Israel's siege of Gaza. It is premature. There is no reason to believe the siege lacks connection with legitimate military objectives and good reason to think that such a connection exists given the apparent plans for a ground offensive.  Cutting off electricity is permissible.  Cutting of food and water to an entire 2 million person civilian population is not permissible if it results in starvation without opening corridors for either relief or flight.  But Gaza has not run out of supplies yet.  If Israel simply remains in its current posture and blocks all supplies it will be violating international law if it fails to open up relief corridors.  But if it proceeds expeditiously to a ground offensive and then takes reasonable steps to feed the civilian population, it will be in compliance.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 12, 2023, 12:52:08 PMI understand Pf. Byers has expertise in international law and specifically the law of war, as he literally wrote a book on the subject.

However, his claims the Israel is violating international law by failing to supply electricity and fuel does not seem to be supported by any of written sources.  His statement: "the siege does not distinguish between civilians and militants and is therefore illegal" is simply not correct other than perhaps as a matter of his own aspirational opinion.  The AP commentary and the US gloss I quoted above contemplates that siege warfare is not prohibited by international law even though civilians will be impacted.  Obviously, Israel has no means of denying supplies specifically to Hamas militants only.  There are limitations based on concepts of proportionality and feasibility but after mentioning them, Pf. Byers then proceeds to ignore them in presenting his conclusion.

It appears that Israel is massing very substantial forces for an imminent assault, an enormous logistical undertaking and one under the circumstances requiring the most rigorous operational security.  Yet Pf. Byers does not discuss the feasibility of simultaneously opening up flight corridors for 2 million people or of organizing and vetting relief convoys.  Of course, if the status quo persists for months with IDF forces simply remaining in place and enforcing a siege, that analysis would change.  But it seems to me Pf. Byers is leaping to judgment without warrant and in contravention to the very legal principles he admits apply to this situation.

QuoteStarvation is a legitimate method of warfare, but it must be conducted in accordance with
the principles of distinction and proportionality, as well as other law of war rules. Starvation of
civilians as a method of combat is also prohibited in non-international armed conflict.608
5.20.1 Starvation – Distinction. It is a legitimate method of war to starve enemy
forces.
609 For example, it is permitted to destroy food intended as sustenance for enemy forces with a view towards weakening them and diverting their resources.610 Enemy forces, for the
purpose of this rule, means those persons constituting military objectives.611

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 12, 2023, 02:12:16 PMRight, something to remember is the laws of war never tried to criminalize war itself--the United Nations sought to stop aggressive wars as a principle, but when the Security Council became dysfunctional a few seconds after the Soviets realized they were doing it wrong when they let the UNSC vote on the Korean War, that concept has basically died. This wouldn't be considered an offensive war in any case, Israel was attacked, on its own territory--not even in the territory that is broadly considered Palestinian, but in territory that was Israel's as part of the 1947 UN partition plan.

A lot of really weird international law claims people are making about Israel would make it almost impossible to prosecute a war, which again, not how the laws of war were designed. They were designed to minimize the brutality of war, and done with a recognition you can't just ban war by legislative fiat--so you have to make amends with reality.

Military necessity is a valid justification for many things in war, and that is also often ignored. It doesn't give you carte blanche.

People are also willfully confusing the requirements of an occupying power with a power at war--Israel was arguably an occupying power of Gaza (even that is complex due to the nature of the Gaza "walling off"), but they have formally declared war against Hamas lead Gaza. They are allowed to siege their strongholds, they are allowed to bomb them in ways that are designed to facilitate an eventual invasion. They are allowed to do those things even if it kills civilians.

The laws of war prohibit certain specific technologies (most of those laws are in later GC APs that have not been signed by Israel), and the deliberate targeting of noncombatants.

I notice a lot of these pundits try to introduce terms like "collective punishment", which are usually used in evaluating the behavior of an occupying power responding to criminality or rebel activity. E.g. a village has a sniper shoot a soldier, so the army punishes the whole village. It stretches the traditional usage of the term "collective punishment" to the brink of absurdity to classify a pre-invasion bombing campaign as "collective punishment" because their bombs are hitting parties who weren't directly involved in the attack.

That isn't how it works. That would be like saying the Allies weren't allowed to shell the beaches of Normandy, since some of those shells could hit civilian targets, and the civilians weren't the ones who declared war on the Allies. Like...no. That isn't what collective punishment means. It isn't collective punishment to wage war against someone who attacked you.

Quote from: Josquius on October 12, 2023, 02:40:31 PMAs interesting times ahead with a solid Israel - Ukraine vs Iran - Russia.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 02:53:55 PM

Quote from: Josquius on October 12, 2023, 02:40:31 PMAs interesting times ahead with a solid Israel - Ukraine vs Iran - Russia.

I sure hope not.  And if that does occur, I sure hope the Russian nukes don't work.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 02:35:40 PMNothing there says Israel can knowingly starve civilians and armed forces.  The professor's point is that there also needs to be distinctions made between civilian and military targets.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 02:37:40 PMWell, yes, the rules were  created to protect civilian populations.  Not to make war easy.  If your interpretation was accepted the rules become meaningless.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 12, 2023, 05:45:26 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 12, 2023, 02:35:40 PMNothing there says Israel can knowingly starve civilians and armed forces.  The professor's point is that there also needs to be distinctions made between civilian and military targets.

I think we read the words differently.  "Starvation is a legitimate method of warfare" seems pretty straightforward.
The question is not whether there is a distinction between civilian and military targets; of course that distinction exists.  The real question is with respect to the conduct of siege warfare - which is lawful under international law - how can that distinction be feasibly operationalized in particular situations?  Armies do not and cannot lay siege to specific, designated individuals, they lay siege to geographic positions, and everyone in that position is necessarily impacted.  That is especially so dealing with an opponent like Hamas, whose standard M.O. involves blurring civilian-militant distinctions and using civilian buildings, facilities and human bodies for self-protection and to conduct military activities.

The real issue is what sort of obligation Israel has to facilitate humanitarian assistance consistent with its legitimate interest in denying resources to Hamas.  At this stage it is way too premature to be throwing around judgments.

My sense is that the Professor has jumped the gun to make accusations without adequate foundation.  He may have done so in the belief that the Israeli government is staffed by bad actors who are looking for excuses to run roughshod over international norms.  He may be right about it but IMO it makes matters worse to make knee jerk claims before sufficient justification exists.  That feeds the opposing narrative that whatever Israel does will always be condemned so why try?

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 11, 2023, 11:05:47 PMI can barely understand politics in the US, and I live here and interact regularly with Trump voters.  I definitely can't understand politics in Israel.  What you say makes sense; logic suggests that there should be accountability for such a massive security failure, especially one so easily traceable to ministry policy of monomaniacal focus on WB settlements.  Everyone knows Bibi is corrupt and played out; his only card left was a rep for "security" and he just presided over Israel's worst security catastrophe in 50 years.  But what do I know? If logic prevailed this shameful excuse of a government never would have got near to power in the first place, much less endured this long.

QuoteI just saw a story about several CEOs asking for names of Harvard students that wrote a statement blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks, openly saying that the intention was to blacklist them from employment.  For the strong supporters of "freedom of speech is not freedom from consequences", are you okay with this?

QuoteUnited Nations team leaders in Gaza on Thursday were informed by their liaison officers in the Israeli military that the entire population north of Wadi Gaza should evacuate to southern Gaza within 24 hours, according to Stephane Dujarric the spokesperson for the UN secretary general.

Israel gave the message to the UN team in Gaza at just before midnight local time on Thursday, the UN said.

"This amounts to approximately 1.1 million people. The same order applied to all UN staff and those sheltered in UN facilities — including schools, health centres and clinics," the UN statement said. "The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences."
The UN's statement added: "The United Nations strongly appeals for any such order, if confirmed, to be rescinded avoiding what could transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation."

QuoteProgressive US Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez has denounced Israel's push to remove more than 1.1 million Palestinians from northern Gaza in an apparent effort to pave the way for a ground invasion of the territory.

"Any person can see that ordering 1+ million people to move in under 24 hours is not possible. It is unacceptable," the congresswoman wrote in a social media post.

"The UN has already deemed the order 'impossible' without 'devastating humanitarian consequences'. Humanity is at stake. Nearly half are children. We must halt this."

Quote from: chipwich on October 12, 2023, 10:34:05 PMNot foolproof. Should have asked them to pronounce shibboleth.

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2023, 03:36:26 AMWell, the IDF issues a warning to civilians to evacuate thereby confirming to the enemy that yes they are going in and going to wreak havoc. Hamas in response tells those civilians to stay put. Tells you everything you need to know about the two sides.

Quote from: Threviel on October 13, 2023, 04:49:16 AMIsrael has a history of trying to minimize civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas the Israeli leadership do not scream for the blood of the enemy civilians. They are still, even now, dropping leaflets warning civilians to GTFO before strikes.

The Palestinian side, be it Fatah or Hamas or whatever, on the other hand has a history of trying to create political pressure by maximizing exposure of their own casualties. And for that to work they have often put civilians in harms way. Hamas forcing civilians to remain in buildings that are going to be bombed and so on. The only way Hamas has to win this thing is to make the western world turn on Israel and they can only do that by playing the "dead civilians" and "think of the poor children" cards. Hamas has a history of being totally and completely ruthless with no regard what so ever about their own populations well-being.

Israel telling the population to GTFO is probably sincere, they are not after the civilians, they are after Hamas and Hamas-supporters. It's very much in their interest to not have pictures of dead civilians cabled out over the world.

So we have a situation where it's in Hamas interest to maximize civilian suffering and in Israels interest to minimize it.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMNot exactly comparing like with like there though.
Israel has the firepower to completely wipe Gaza clean. Hamas is pushing the absolute max its capable of with the relatively small causalities it inflicts on Israel.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMI don't doubt most of Israel would love it if they could push a button and kill everyone related to Hamas without harming a single innocent fly. But against this desire not to kill civilians they've also a desire to kill Hamas at all costs. They've got to find a balance somewhere in the middle.
Minimising casualties isn't a binary. Israel does it to some extent like western militaries. But there's a very valid debate as to whether they usually do this enough and at the current moment especially whether they will lower their standards.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMAlso this is a dodgy line of thought that I'm sadly seeing a lot online. Hamas are evil shits. Thats beyond doubt... But that they're awful doesn't give Israel permission to act the same way in return when most of the people who'll be killed have nothing to do with Hamas. "They're not as bad as Hamas" is a pretty terrible defence if they're still not taking enough care to minimise civilian causalities.

Quote from: Threviel on October 13, 2023, 05:10:46 AM

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMNot exactly comparing like with like there though.
Israel has the firepower to completely wipe Gaza clean. Hamas is pushing the absolute max its capable of with the relatively small causalities it inflicts on Israel.

The real world is not a computer game where the sides have to be evenly matched. Neither is morality relative to military power.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMI don't doubt most of Israel would love it if they could push a button and kill everyone related to Hamas without harming a single innocent fly. But against this desire not to kill civilians they've also a desire to kill Hamas at all costs. They've got to find a balance somewhere in the middle.
Minimising casualties isn't a binary. Israel does it to some extent like western militaries. But there's a very valid debate as to whether they usually do this enough and at the current moment especially whether they will lower their standards.

Minimizing casualties is not the same as accepting no casualties. Hamas hides behind civilians, breaking international law in the process. Israel goes after military targets hiding behind civilians, following international law in the process. If all you had to do to be invincible was to hide behind a civilian then no democracy could ever win a war.

They have obviously lowered their standards, it is a real shooting war, not a police action.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:00:57 AMAlso this is a dodgy line of thought that I'm sadly seeing a lot online. Hamas are evil shits. Thats beyond doubt... But that they're awful doesn't give Israel permission to act the same way in return when most of the people who'll be killed have nothing to do with Hamas. "They're not as bad as Hamas" is a pretty terrible defence if they're still not taking enough care to minimise civilian causalities.

Do please define "enough care to minimise civilian causalities". And whilst you are at it tell us in a realistic manner how Israel can wage war, win against Hamas and at the same time follow your definition.

Quote from: Threviel on October 13, 2023, 05:30:24 AMI'm just trying to nuance the "Israel bad bad bad" message. Looking at the two sides and their supporters across the world it just astonishes me that otherwise fully functional adults do not support Israel in this.

Quote from: Threviel on October 13, 2023, 05:38:26 AMI think you will find those calls mostly in your head.

QuoteBut hey, at least you have North Korea, Russia and Iran in your corner. Friends are nice.

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 05:39:37 AM

Quote from: Threviel on October 13, 2023, 05:38:26 AMI think you will find those calls mostly in your head.

You mean like the Hamas support in yours?

QuoteBut hey, at least you have North Korea, Russia and Iran in your corner. Friends are nice.

They're in your corner :contract:

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2023, 06:00:28 AMIn one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

Quote from: DGuller on October 13, 2023, 08:51:00 AMJos, have you ever considered expanding your rhetorical toolbox beyond "I know you are, but what am I?"

Quote from: Josquius on October 13, 2023, 08:36:41 AM

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2023, 06:00:28 AMIn one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

I'd say more in one corner there's those who support might makes right, you choose a side and support that side to the hilt; anyone who questions that side even a little is evil incarnate and deserves no mercy.
And in the other corner there's those who recognise the world is complicated and it is possible to both be against the recent Hamas attacks and Israel's general oppression. We are worried about whats to come and want an outcome that minimises suffering all round.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 13, 2023, 12:41:16 AMIt highlights the unreality of the Byers kind of critique.  The rules speak of feasibility; obviously it is not feasible to simultaneously stage and carry out an enormous military incursion in a dense urban area while simultaneously arranging for either evacuation or relief for over 1 million civilians mixed in indiscriminately with un-uniformed fighters. The IDF is just following the Alice in Wonderland logic by making this obviously equally infeasible request that half the population immediately self relocate to the other half of the Strip.

The bottom line is that what the OSC and her fellow really are complaining about is war.  I have some sympathy for that view - war is bad.  But Israel's decision to wage war is hardly unreasonable under these circumstances and international law permits them to do so.

The danger in casually throwing around allegations of international law violations is that if such violations do occur in the future - which very well may happen - the credibility of the complainants will have already been damaged.

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2023, 10:18:28 AMDon't you feel like the worst pogrom in many many decades is perhaps not the best background picture for all this "yes but it is illegal occupation!" talk? It kind of confirms that Hamas was right to do it: the cause of Palestinians have not suffered because of it in the eyes of those who were already vocally supporting them, but there is sure more media attention on the conflict. So: beheading Jewish babies seems like a net positive for them, especially if the international pressure will prevent Israel from doing anything drastic to discourage further raids.

Quote from: Tamas on October 13, 2023, 06:00:28 AMIn one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2023, 10:33:56 AMIt also highlights the degree to which you guys are going to look the other way when an atrocity is about to be committed because Israel is a special case.  The Israelis know that population has nowhere to go because it was Israel that created those conditions.  Now Israel gets a pass because it gives 24 hours for about a million people to leave and they have nowhere to go?

I predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."
 

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2023, 10:33:56 AMI predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."

QuoteCRISIS IN THE MAKING?

As if the Gaza situation could get any worse, Israel has warned 1 million Gazans to get out of the northern half of the area by tonight. The population is a good 2 million and just on half of them are under 18 years of age and legally speaking, children. Around 400,000 are under five. There's not a lot to do in Gaza at night.
While everyone knows there's a humanitarian crisis coming, there's no stopping the Israelis who, from the top down equate all Palestinians with Hamas and Hamas as Nazis. Israeli rage is off the scale. You can hardly blame them for feeling as they do. Maybe the Palestinian people will finally decided they've had enough of Hamas which rules with an iron fist and is appallingly corrupt on a good day.
However this is not the only dire humanitarian crisis in the making.
Further east, Pakistan has been in a state of economic melt down following disastrous climate driven floods last year. These affected almost a third of its 220 million people, shut down electrical supplies and industry nationwide and ruined crops, left millions homeless and devastated much of its key infrastructure.
On top of that the debt crisis was already looming. Along with it a spate of religious militants suicide bombed crowds and religious centres.
These suicide bombers, have for the most part - 13 out of 16 cases - been Afghan nationals from inside the 1.3 million refugees living in Pakistan, who escaped the war and/or the Taliban.
Pakistan has now decided they're no longer welcome and is starting the process of blaming them for just about everything - and has declared them persona non grata - it wants the whole lot gone and back in Afghanistan. And soon.
Moving them is one thing - it's about to be winter in the mountains and it gets bitterly cold. The communications routes are poor and that's being generous. On top of that the Taliban have no place or time for aid agencies. They can barely maintain their own population as it is, they couldn't even begin to cope with the recent earthquake that killed over 2,000. How are they going to manage the reintegration of 1.3 million people who don't even want to be there?  The current population of Afghanistan is said by the UN to be around 43 million - most of which live in sharp poverty. There are no resources to manage the returnees.
Pakistan is about to generate a crisis that could backfire on it badly, largely by blaming a population of refugees as scapegoats for its own multiple failures.
On top of this, one place the refugees will aim for is Iran - they'd rather go there than to the Taliban, but Iran will not permit another major ethnic group in or to expand. It has enough trouble with the  Baluchi people in its SE - an area that crosses into Pakistan.
If these refugees can't get out easily they may well head for Europe - again. That's something Iran will facilitate. More refugees in Europe spurs on the far right parties - Germany's AFD, the French fascists of Marine Le Pen, Orban's Putin worshipping Fidesz.
It may seem a long way away, but if those Afghans and Gazans start turning up in droves on European borders next spring they may drive a political wind of change we could all do without. And that change strengthens the anti-Ukraine and pro Russia element. You can't get away from the facts.
Pakistan's problems eventually come calling at our doorstep. Action is needed before that happens, not when or if it does. Yet it hasn't even become a subject of concern anywhere, mired and distracted are we in Ukraine and Israel. Western governments don't have much time to stop Pakistan making a terrible mistake.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 13, 2023, 10:44:19 AM

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 13, 2023, 10:33:56 AMIt also highlights the degree to which you guys are going to look the other way when an atrocity is about to be committed because Israel is a special case.  The Israelis know that population has nowhere to go because it was Israel that created those conditions.  Now Israel gets a pass because it gives 24 hours for about a million people to leave and they have nowhere to go?

I predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."
 

What is the "atrocity that is about to be committed"?  And how exactly would you propose Israel carry out the military operations that you concede are legitimate?  You do understand that Hamas militants don't walk around with flashing neon terrorists signs?  That there is no way to supply food and electricity to civilians in Gaza without Hamas requisitioning it for themselves?

Minority Report was a Hollywood movie, not a documentary.  You can't actually convict someone of precrime.