Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Barrister]

It wouldn't overly surprise me if they wanted to do that, however they sure don't seem to be serious about it. Do we have a recorded case in history of 2 million people relocated? Maybe post 1945 aggregate numbers exceed that but that was organised between states willing to take the refugees AND it was organised openly.

So during and after WWII I am seeing reports of up to 20 million people being forcibly relocated.  I think that includes Jews who were both relocated and then killed, but not exclusive just to them.

Approximately 16 million people were forcibly transfered during Indian partition.

Roughly 1.5 million greeks and turks were relocated after the formation of the Turkish republic.

So yes - while these are not good examples, and it isn't something Israel should try to do, there are precedents.

[Jacob]

@Tamas - I don't know.

I agree that there'd be more directly effective ways to go about it, if Israel didn't care about the optics and the political consequences of being more directly effective.

On the other hand, I'm not so convinced of Nethanyahu's moral fibre and the priorities of the current Israeli government that I'll say with confidence that they're not trying to engineer a situation in which many / most / practially all Palestinians are removed from Gaza and sets the path for the strip to be integrated into Israel proper over the next few decades.

When I say I don't know, it's not a rhetorical device to argue a specific point of view. It's a genuine uncertainty. I'm not sure whether Nethanyahu's government is attempting to ethnically cleanse Gaza and this is what they reckon is the best way they can move in that direction, or whether they have no such intention.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't see any meaningful evidence IDF strategy is designed to get Gazans to evacuate the strip.

The far right Likud coalition partners, and frankly maybe the entire political leadership of the Arab Middle East, would probably prefer Gazans become Egypt's problem. But there is no real way to do that since Egypt is almost certainly willing to use lethal force to stop any large scale migration.

It's something that is desired by some but not feasible and I see no evidence it is being attempted.

[Jacob]

I don't see any meaningful evidence IDF strategy is designed to get Gazans to evacuate the strip.

The far right Likid coalition partners, and frankly maybe the entire political leadership of the Arab Middle East, would probably prefer Gazans become Egypt's problem. But there is no real way to do that since Egypt is almost certainly willing to use lethal force to stop any large scale migration.

It's something that is desired by some but not feasible and I see no evidence it is being attempted.

Fair enough.

If in, say, 6 months it turns out that most Palestinians have been relocated away from the Gaza Strip will that make you reassess anything in your position on Israel and/ or the current conflict?

EDIT: Same question for anyone else in the thread, if you're interested in answering.

[Sheilbh]

It serves the interests of the extreme right that he had to turn to return to power.  That is what matters now.

I agree.

I've said before but I don't think it's accidental that Sisi and Biden are repeatedly publicly saying they're opposed to that. It's because that's what they're hearing either as a request or as a risk.

I think what we're seeing is exactly because there's an Israeli leadership that is unable to do what it wants because of those international constraints, and unable to think of anything else to do.

[PJL]

It serves the interests of the extreme right that he had to turn to return to power.  That is what matters now.

I agree.

I've said before but I don't think it's accidental that Sisi and Biden are repeatedly publicly saying they're opposed to that. It's because that's what they're hearing either as a request or as a risk.

I think what we're seeing is exactly because there's an Israeli leadership that is unable to do what it wants because of those international constraints, and unable to think of anything else to do.

I do think Bibi is a hostage to fortune right now between those two forces thanks to the current war rather than master of his own destiny. Not that I'm feeling sorry for him because of it, as he's largely responsible for the situation he is in now.

[Grey Fox]

I don't see any meaningful evidence IDF strategy is designed to get Gazans to evacuate the strip.

The far right Likid coalition partners, and frankly maybe the entire political leadership of the Arab Middle East, would probably prefer Gazans become Egypt's problem. But there is no real way to do that since Egypt is almost certainly willing to use lethal force to stop any large scale migration.

It's something that is desired by some but not feasible and I see no evidence it is being attempted.

Fair enough.

If in, say, 6 months it turns out that most Palestinians have been relocated away from the Gaza Strip will that make you reassess anything in your position on Israel and/ or the current conflict?

EDIT: Same question for anyone else in the thread, if you're interested in answering.

That probably means that Egypt & Jordan are finally taking some responsibility in this conflict. A net positive, imo.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If in, say, 6 months it turns out that most Palestinians have been relocated away from the Gaza Strip will that make you reassess anything in your position on Israel and/ or the current conflict?

It would make me reassess my understanding of factual reality.

I need to "see your homework" at this point. Where do you envision them being relocated? By what means?

Like the only practical option is Egypt, and Egypt has a pretty big army, they aren't going to let them in without a war. How is Israel going to effect this?

[Razgovory]

[Admiral Yi]

The US has vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a cease fire.  Britain abstained.

[viper37]

I confess, it's not clear to me whether Nethanyahu is actually trying to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza or not.

They've made it public quite a few times after their plans was leaked.  It's really not coincidental the US is raising the tone calling for Israel to do more to protect civilians and not to occupy Gaza.
Also, Netanyahu has said Israel will occupy Gaza after the war -  sorry, it will have security control, while also saying the PA can not return to Gaza.

No PA, Israel with full security control and there is no such thing as a right of return for people who were forced to leave.  Something OvB feels is moronic anyway.

So, where does that leave the Palestinians that have left?  Cornered in one tiny part of the Gaza strip living in tents until something else is built by the UN, or wherever they can emigrate, as indicated multiple times by multiple israeli cabinet ministers.

Anyone who thinks Palestinians are going back to Gaza as normal is delusional.  Israel has zero interests in having Palestinians occupying any kind of contiguous territory, they prefered Hamas ruling in Gaza rather than risking Palestinian secular nationalism.

[Valmy]

The US has vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a cease fire.  Britain abstained.

Here is the plan: use Israel to defeat Hamas, put the PLA in charge and then send in an Arab keague peacekeeping force to keep Gaza and Israel separated.

Obviously I love this plan but I am highly skeptical we can pull it off. Probably just should have abstained with the UK.

[Razgovory]

I don't think the PLA is interesting in being Israel's lackey's in Gaza.  Any peacekeeping force has two options.  Cooperate with Palestinian terrorists or get suicide-bombed.  At best it would be like UNIFIL, that is useless.

[Valmy]

I don't think the PLA is interesting in being Israel's lackey's in Gaza.  Any peacekeeping force has two options.  Cooperate with Palestinian terrorists or get suicide-bombed.  At best it would be like UNIFIL, that is useless.

Exactly. Theoretically a PLA controlled Gaza with an Arab league led peacekeeping force would be great. And we could have had that in 2006. But I am skeptical we can make that happen.

We are sticking our necks out again for Israel and I don't like it.

[Admiral Yi]

Heard on PBS that Bibi is absolutely opposed to the PA running Gaza.  And of course the PA has said they will do it only if something is done about two state.