Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Jacob]

Valmy, purely on the US domestic front there are potential high prices to pay electorally for changing away from the idealistically-optimistic-but-supporting-Israel stance to something else.

Going all in on Israel saying "do whatever you feel is appropriate to the Palestinians, we won't hold you back" is going to come with a massive price. Conversely, breaking with Israel is going to have a different massive price. And if there are drastic outcomes from either, many will hold the government directly responsible.

[Duque de Bragança]

And raised catholic. I'm a lock for heaven 

You should await the Tribunal do Santo Ofício's verdict on you, just to be sure. 

Like pombal said, if you got rid of all the convert Jews and Moores from Portugal you'd have no one left

Getting rid of the Moores should not be too difficult. 
As for Pombal, well it's in the centre i.e south of the Mondego so possibly...   

[HVC]

And raised catholic. I'm a lock for heaven 

You should await the Tribunal do Santo Ofício's verdict on you, just to be sure. 

Like pombal said, if you got rid of all the convert Jews and Moores from Portugal you'd have no one left

Getting rid of the Moores should not be too difficult. 
As for Pombal, well it's in the centre i.e south of the Mondego so possibly...   

I like the hat story too. Interesting guy.

for  those that don't know, the lore is that the king was debating making the Jews wear yellow hats. In a meeting pombal brought three hats. When the king asked why he said it's one for himself, one for the grand inquisitor, and if you want to cover your head there's one for you too.

[Jacob]

So the Houthi faction in Yemen have recently said they're going to enter the conflict on the side of Palestine. In the last few days they've fired missiles at a Norwegian ship and a Danish ship transitting through the Gulf of Aden.

[HVC]

Saw some cross flags and their first thoughts were "Jewish ships"?

[Valmy]

In the last few days they've fired missiles at a Norwegian ship and a Danish ship transitting through the Gulf of Aden.

Are they one of those "all nations are secretly controlled by the Jews" types?

[Jacob]

I think they have a category of "nations who support Israel" meaning "who haven't sufficiently supported Palestine" or maybe "who we think are too close to the US" which they're attacking. And I guess Norway and Denmark fit in that category.

[The Minsky Moment]

In the last few days they've fired missiles at a Norwegian ship and a Danish ship transitting through the Gulf of Aden.

Are they one of those "all nations are secretly controlled by the Jews" types?

They are one of those "our paymasters in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have told us to escalate the conflict as best we can while leaving them with plausible deniability" types.

[The Minsky Moment]

Although I think Valmy's judgment is too harsh, he has a point.  Post Sadat, the I-P conflict is where the reputations of American statesmen go to die.  It is the Kobayashi Maru of international conflict resolution.

The truth is that Biden has no good options; he cannot abandon Israel for both domestic political reasons and some sound foreign policy reasons; at the same time, it is true that at the level of political strategy, the governments are working at cross-purposes.

[Sheilbh]

Hamas leadership reportedly being kicked out of Qatar (probably to Algeria).

That would be the Qatar that is the UK's supplier of last resort for LNG and close energy partner of Italy, host of the World Cup, owner of European football clubs and other high end assets.

I get they've played a role in negotiating hostage releases but I can't help but feel that Qatar has not come under nearly enough pressure from the West since 7 October that we're only now reaching this point. Reality is probably because they're too important in other ways (and I get that, for example, with the UK and Italy - like the rest of Europe - on LNG the choice is Russia or x Gulf autocracy).

But I feel like there is dissonance between the West's economic policies and attitudes and its actual security and energy needs (particularly Europe because we don't produce our own energy or have our own security). It feels like it's still growing - and is, I think, a big challenge for the next set of European leaders in particular who need to be as hard-headed and realistic about this as, say, the Schmidts, de Gaulles, Wilsons of a previous age.

[Gups]

Hamas leadership reportedly being kicked out of Qatar (probably to Algeria).

That would be the Qatar that is the UK's supplier of last resort for LNG and close energy partner of Italy, host of the World Cup, owner of European football clubs and other high end assets.

I get they've played a role in negotiating hostage releases but I can't help but feel that Qatar has not come under nearly enough pressure from the West since 7 October that we're only now reaching this point. Reality is probably because they're too important in other ways (and I get that, for example, with the UK and Italy - like the rest of Europe - on LNG the choice is Russia or x Gulf autocracy).

But I feel like there is dissonance between the West's economic policies and attitudes and its actual security and energy needs (particularly Europe because we don't produce our own energy or have our own security). It feels like it's still growing - and is, I think, a big challenge for the next set of European leaders in particular who need to be as hard-headed and realistic about this as, say, the Schmidts, de Gaulles, Wilsons of a previous age.

Although, from what I've read (in the Economist I think), Hamas is deeply divided and the "leadership" in Quatar was opposed to the 7 October outrages.

[viper37]

I get they've played a role in negotiating hostage releases but I can't help but feel that Qatar has not come under nearly enough pressure from the West since 7 October that we're only now reaching this point. Reality is probably because they're too important in other ways (and I get that, for example, with the UK and Italy - like the rest of Europe - on LNG the choice is Russia or x Gulf autocracy).

Maybe there was some behind the scene pressure and diplomatic talks with the US and the UK about it.  Polite talks to avoid pissing them off and cutting the gaz supply to Europe, but talks at lower levels to resolve the issue nonetheless.

[viper37]

The IDF has killed 3 hostages.  <sigh>

The hostages were carrying a white flag, speaking hebrew and they were shot.  One was shot dead on sight, the other was first injured, ran into a building, spoke in Hebrew calling for help and was shot again by the IDF.

3 hostages in Gaza killed by friendly fire

Three hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza were mistakenly killed by friendly fire, the Israeli military said in a statement Friday.

During combat operations in Shejaiya, a dense neighborhood in the Gaza City area where fighting has been taking place, the Israeli military said troops "mistakenly identified three Israeli hostages as a threat." Troops fired at the three and they were killed, the Israel Defense Forces said.

On Saturday, the IDF told CBS News that the events occurred during a period of "intense combat," with Hamas militants moving around in what the official described as civilian attire, including sneakers and jeans. There were "a lot of ambushes" and "a lot of deceptions," the IDF official said.

The hostages emerged "tens of meters from one of our forces positions," the IDF official said. The hostages were not wearing shirts and were waving a white flag on a stick, but two were killed immediately, the official said. The third ran away "crying for help in Hebrew." Though the battalion commander issued a ceasefire order, there was "another burst of fire at" the third hostage, which killed him, the IDF official said.
"This was against our rules of engagement," the official said, calling the incident "very tragic."

It's not clear if the hostages had been abandoned or if they had escaped their captors, the official said. The IDF official said that there was a building within meters of where the incident took place with "markings of SOS on it." The Israeli military is investigating the building, the official said.

The Israeli military said Friday that the bodies have been returned to Israel and the identities of the three were confirmed.

Samer Talalka and Yotam Haim, who were both kidnapped from Kibbutz Kfar Aza during the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, were identified by the IDF as two of the hostages killed. Haim, 28, recorded video of Hamas attacking the kibbutz before he was kidnapped. Later, the IDF released the name of the third hostage, Alon Shamriz, with his family's approval, after saying earlier that his family did not want it released. Officials said Shamriz, 26, was also kidnapped from Kibbutz Kfar Aza. Talalka was 22 years old.

The Israeli military said it "began reviewing the incident immediately."
"The IDF emphasizes that this is an active combat zone in which ongoing fighting over the last few days has occurred. Immediate lessons from the event have been learned, which have been passed on to all IDF troops in the field," the military's statement said. "The IDF expresses deep remorse over the tragic incident and sends the families its heartfelt condolences. Our national mission is to locate the missing and return all the hostages home."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement: "Together with the entire people of Israel, I bow my head in deep sorrow and mourn the death of three of our hostages. ... This is an unbearable tragedy and all of Israel is grieving their loss this evening."

CBS Saturday Morning reported that the incident led to protests in Israel, with families and supporters of the hostages demanding the government resume talks for another hostage swap with Hamas. Sources told CBS News on Saturday that Mossad director David Barnea met with Qatari and U.S. officials in France last night to discuss diplomacy regarding hostages, but there is no hint of a break in the brutal fighting, which has been a key demand from Hamas before any negotiations take place.

Bodies of three other hostages were recovered this week, according to previous statements from the Israeli military. The body of 28-year-old Elia Toledano was returned to Israel and positively identified, the IDF said earlier Friday. Toledano had French citizenship, French officials said, and had reportedly been attending the Supernova music festival in southern Israel when it came under attack by Hamas on Oct. 7. On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it recovered the bodies of Eden Zakaria, 27, and Ziv Dado, 36.

The Israeli government has said there are an estimated 137 hostages still being held by Hamas.

Unarmed people shirtless carrying a white flag = dangerous terrorist; we must shoot first and ask questions later.

I don't know if they've always been like that or if it's the result of years under Bibi that turned the IDF into this.  They were prone stand by and let others do the killing during the war in Lebanon, but nowadays, it seems they take pleasure in shooting unarmed civilians.

And of course, anyone who dares question Israel is a racist.

[Tamas]

While I don't care much for your hyperbole, it does raise questions about their ROE.

[Jacob]

Although, from what I've read (in the Economist I think), Hamas is deeply divided and the "leadership" in Quatar was opposed to the 7 October outrages.

Were the October 7th attacks a bid for power from a rival faction?

If the Qatar based leadership was in fact opposed to the attacks, presumably they didn't organize them. Do we know who did, what their aims were, and what their differences are (if any) with the Qatar based leadership are (beyond the attack itself)?