Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Tamas]

In one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

[Razgovory]

I think you will find those calls mostly in your head.

You mean like the Hamas support in yours?

But hey, at least you have North Korea, Russia and Iran in your corner. Friends are nice.

They're in your corner

[Josquius]

In one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

I'd say more in one corner there's those who support might makes right, you choose a side and support that side to the hilt; anyone who questions that side even a little is evil incarnate and deserves no mercy.
And in the other corner there's those who recognise the world is complicated and it is possible to both be against the recent Hamas attacks and Israel's general oppression. We are worried about whats to come and want an outcome that minimises suffering all round.

[DGuller]

Jos, have you ever considered expanding your rhetorical toolbox beyond "I know you are, but what am I?"

[Josquius]

Jos, have you ever considered expanding your rhetorical toolbox beyond "I know you are, but what am I?"

Not when faced with a projected ad hom no.

[Tamas]

In one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

I'd say more in one corner there's those who support might makes right, you choose a side and support that side to the hilt; anyone who questions that side even a little is evil incarnate and deserves no mercy.
And in the other corner there's those who recognise the world is complicated and it is possible to both be against the recent Hamas attacks and Israel's general oppression. We are worried about whats to come and want an outcome that minimises suffering all round.

Don't you feel like the worst pogrom in many many decades is perhaps not the best background picture for all this "yes but it is illegal occupation!" talk? It kind of confirms that Hamas was right to do it: the cause of Palestinians have not suffered because of it in the eyes of those who were already vocally supporting them, but there is sure more media attention on the conflict. So: beheading Jewish babies seems like a net positive for them, especially if the international pressure will prevent Israel from doing anything drastic to discourage further raids.

[crazy canuck]

It highlights the unreality of the Byers kind of critique.  The rules speak of feasibility; obviously it is not feasible to simultaneously stage and carry out an enormous military incursion in a dense urban area while simultaneously arranging for either evacuation or relief for over 1 million civilians mixed in indiscriminately with un-uniformed fighters. The IDF is just following the Alice in Wonderland logic by making this obviously equally infeasible request that half the population immediately self relocate to the other half of the Strip.

The bottom line is that what the OSC and her fellow really are complaining about is war.  I have some sympathy for that view - war is bad.  But Israel's decision to wage war is hardly unreasonable under these circumstances and international law permits them to do so.

The danger in casually throwing around allegations of international law violations is that if such violations do occur in the future - which very well may happen - the credibility of the complainants will have already been damaged.

It also highlights the degree to which you guys are going to look the other way when an atrocity is about to be committed because Israel is a special case.  The Israelis know that population has nowhere to go because it was Israel that created those conditions.  Now Israel gets a pass because it gives 24 hours for about a million people to leave and they have nowhere to go?

I predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."
 

[Josquius]

Don't you feel like the worst pogrom in many many decades is perhaps not the best background picture for all this "yes but it is illegal occupation!" talk? It kind of confirms that Hamas was right to do it: the cause of Palestinians have not suffered because of it in the eyes of those who were already vocally supporting them, but there is sure more media attention on the conflict. So: beheading Jewish babies seems like a net positive for them, especially if the international pressure will prevent Israel from doing anything drastic to discourage further raids.

Not really.
When emotions are understandably high is when we should be most aware of what we stand for and resist our basest impulses to support an eye for an eye.

The Palestinian cause absolutely has suffered due to these attacks. And thats totally ignoring the siege and strikes we've seen so far.
Hamas expected these attacks would rally more of the muslim world to their side but the whole kidnapping children and murdering babies thing- turns out your average muslim isn't a fan.
I've heard some rumours (take with a pinch of salt) even the Hamas leadership has been shocked at quite how far their people went with some of the atrocities.

Sure they've got themselves top of the news for a week or two... but not all publicity is good publicity.  And odds are good the media's attention will start to wane when its Palestinian babies dying.

So no. I don't see how hoping Israel is careful and minimises civilian causalities makes this a win for Hamas.

[crazy canuck]

In one corner, there are people who displace others to take their land.

In the other corner, there are people who murder civilians indiscriminately. Neither are "good" but if one of these two sides must win I know which one I want to.

All the civilians in Gaza murdered civilians?  Israel is at war with Hamas.  I have no trouble with that.  If Israel destroys Hamas that is definitely a benefit to all, including the Palestinians. 

But as Professor Byers has clearly explained, there are limits Israel must observe in that war which includes not willfully killing civilians who are in Gaza.

[The Minsky Moment]

It also highlights the degree to which you guys are going to look the other way when an atrocity is about to be committed because Israel is a special case.  The Israelis know that population has nowhere to go because it was Israel that created those conditions.  Now Israel gets a pass because it gives 24 hours for about a million people to leave and they have nowhere to go?

I predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."
 

What is the "atrocity that is about to be committed"?  And how exactly would you propose Israel carry out the military operations that you concede are legitimate?  You do understand that Hamas militants don't walk around with flashing neon terrorists signs?  That there is no way to supply food and electricity to civilians in Gaza without Hamas requisitioning it for themselves?

Minority Report was a Hollywood movie, not a documentary.  You can't actually convict someone of precrime.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I predict that the next thing that will happen is Israel will claim that those who did not vacate can be considered as supporters of Hamas and therefore valid targets of war and you guys will simply say, "Yep, that Byers guy is smart and all, wrote the book, but doesn't really know how the real world works."

This won't happen.

[Threviel]

Yeah, quick, someone find an outlier in the other direction that we can nullify that Byers dude with.

[Josquius]

Even thinking beyond raw morality.... It's all connected.

CRISIS IN THE MAKING?

As if the Gaza situation could get any worse, Israel has warned 1 million Gazans to get out of the northern half of the area by tonight. The population is a good 2 million and just on half of them are under 18 years of age and legally speaking, children. Around 400,000 are under five. There's not a lot to do in Gaza at night.
While everyone knows there's a humanitarian crisis coming, there's no stopping the Israelis who, from the top down equate all Palestinians with Hamas and Hamas as Nazis. Israeli rage is off the scale. You can hardly blame them for feeling as they do. Maybe the Palestinian people will finally decided they've had enough of Hamas which rules with an iron fist and is appallingly corrupt on a good day.
However this is not the only dire humanitarian crisis in the making.
Further east, Pakistan has been in a state of economic melt down following disastrous climate driven floods last year. These affected almost a third of its 220 million people, shut down electrical supplies and industry nationwide and ruined crops, left millions homeless and devastated much of its key infrastructure.
On top of that the debt crisis was already looming. Along with it a spate of religious militants suicide bombed crowds and religious centres.
These suicide bombers, have for the most part - 13 out of 16 cases - been Afghan nationals from inside the 1.3 million refugees living in Pakistan, who escaped the war and/or the Taliban.
Pakistan has now decided they're no longer welcome and is starting the process of blaming them for just about everything - and has declared them persona non grata - it wants the whole lot gone and back in Afghanistan. And soon.
Moving them is one thing - it's about to be winter in the mountains and it gets bitterly cold. The communications routes are poor and that's being generous. On top of that the Taliban have no place or time for aid agencies. They can barely maintain their own population as it is, they couldn't even begin to cope with the recent earthquake that killed over 2,000. How are they going to manage the reintegration of 1.3 million people who don't even want to be there?  The current population of Afghanistan is said by the UN to be around 43 million - most of which live in sharp poverty. There are no resources to manage the returnees.
Pakistan is about to generate a crisis that could backfire on it badly, largely by blaming a population of refugees as scapegoats for its own multiple failures.
On top of this, one place the refugees will aim for is Iran - they'd rather go there than to the Taliban, but Iran will not permit another major ethnic group in or to expand. It has enough trouble with the  Baluchi people in its SE - an area that crosses into Pakistan.
If these refugees can't get out easily they may well head for Europe - again. That's something Iran will facilitate. More refugees in Europe spurs on the far right parties - Germany's AFD, the French fascists of Marine Le Pen, Orban's Putin worshipping Fidesz.
It may seem a long way away, but if those Afghans and Gazans start turning up in droves on European borders next spring they may drive a political wind of change we could all do without. And that change strengthens the anti-Ukraine and pro Russia element. You can't get away from the facts.
Pakistan's problems eventually come calling at our doorstep. Action is needed before that happens, not when or if it does. Yet it hasn't even become a subject of concern anywhere, mired and distracted are we in Ukraine and Israel. Western governments don't have much time to stop Pakistan making a terrible mistake.

[Jacob]

I hope there will not be a death toll of tens of thousands of Gazan civilians including young children, but I fear that there will be.

I suppose we will see.

[Jacob]

400,000 of the 2 million people in Gaza are under 5? So roughly 200,000 children under five among the 1 million under evacuation orders?