Israel-Hamas War 2023

[The Minsky Moment]

It highlights the unreality of the Byers kind of critique.  The rules speak of feasibility; obviously it is not feasible to simultaneously stage and carry out an enormous military incursion in a dense urban area while simultaneously arranging for either evacuation or relief for over 1 million civilians mixed in indiscriminately with un-uniformed fighters. The IDF is just following the Alice in Wonderland logic by making this obviously equally infeasible request that half the population immediately self relocate to the other half of the Strip.

The bottom line is that what the OSC and her fellow really are complaining about is war.  I have some sympathy for that view - war is bad.  But Israel's decision to wage war is hardly unreasonable under these circumstances and international law permits them to do so.

The danger in casually throwing around allegations of international law violations is that if such violations do occur in the future - which very well may happen - the credibility of the complainants will have already been damaged.

[Syt]

Not foolproof. Should have asked them to pronounce shibboleth.

[Jacob]

I expect that evacuating 1.1 million people in 24 hours is not possible.

To what degree is it expected that Israel will provide medical aid to Palestinian civilian wounded?

It seems like medical capabilities in Palestine are likely massively degraded given the blockade, impact of any evacuation efforts, and the coming collateral damage.

[Admiral Yi]

That UN PR flack had some beautiful prose.

[Tamas]

Well, the IDF issues a warning to civilians to evacuate thereby confirming to the enemy that yes they are going in and going to wreak havoc. Hamas in response tells those civilians to stay put. Tells you everything you need to know about the two sides.

[Josquius]

Well, the IDF issues a warning to civilians to evacuate thereby confirming to the enemy that yes they are going in and going to wreak havoc. Hamas in response tells those civilians to stay put. Tells you everything you need to know about the two sides.

Evacuate to....?

I'd read more into this that Israel plans to show little regard for civilians and is covering its arse.

[Threviel]

Israel has a history of trying to minimize civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas the Israeli leadership do not scream for the blood of the enemy civilians. They are still, even now, dropping leaflets warning civilians to GTFO before strikes.

The Palestinian side, be it Fatah or Hamas or whatever, on the other hand has a history of trying to create political pressure by maximizing exposure of their own casualties. And for that to work they have often put civilians in harms way. Hamas forcing civilians to remain in buildings that are going to be bombed and so on. The only way Hamas has to win this thing is to make the western world turn on Israel and they can only do that by playing the "dead civilians" and "think of the poor children" cards. Hamas has a history of being totally and completely ruthless with no regard what so ever about their own populations well-being.

Israel telling the population to GTFO is probably sincere, they are not after the civilians, they are after Hamas and Hamas-supporters. It's very much in their interest to not have pictures of dead civilians cabled out over the world.

So we have a situation where it's in Hamas interest to maximize civilian suffering and in Israels interest to minimize it.

[Josquius]

Israel has a history of trying to minimize civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas the Israeli leadership do not scream for the blood of the enemy civilians. They are still, even now, dropping leaflets warning civilians to GTFO before strikes.

The Palestinian side, be it Fatah or Hamas or whatever, on the other hand has a history of trying to create political pressure by maximizing exposure of their own casualties. And for that to work they have often put civilians in harms way. Hamas forcing civilians to remain in buildings that are going to be bombed and so on. The only way Hamas has to win this thing is to make the western world turn on Israel and they can only do that by playing the "dead civilians" and "think of the poor children" cards. Hamas has a history of being totally and completely ruthless with no regard what so ever about their own populations well-being.

Israel telling the population to GTFO is probably sincere, they are not after the civilians, they are after Hamas and Hamas-supporters. It's very much in their interest to not have pictures of dead civilians cabled out over the world.

So we have a situation where it's in Hamas interest to maximize civilian suffering and in Israels interest to minimize it.

Not exactly comparing like with like there though.
Israel has the firepower to completely wipe Gaza clean. Hamas is pushing the absolute max its capable of with the relatively small causalities it inflicts on Israel.

I don't doubt most of Israel would love it if they could push a button and kill everyone related to Hamas without harming a single innocent fly. But against this desire not to kill civilians they've also a desire to kill Hamas at all costs. They've got to find a balance somewhere in the middle.
Minimising casualties isn't a binary. Israel does it to some extent like western militaries. But there's a very valid debate as to whether they usually do this enough and at the current moment especially whether they will lower their standards.


Also this is a dodgy line of thought that I'm sadly seeing a lot online. Hamas are evil shits. Thats beyond doubt... But that they're awful doesn't give Israel permission to act the same way in return when most of the people who'll be killed have nothing to do with Hamas. "They're not as bad as Hamas" is a pretty terrible defence if they're still not taking enough care to minimise civilian causalities.

[Threviel]

Not exactly comparing like with like there though.
Israel has the firepower to completely wipe Gaza clean. Hamas is pushing the absolute max its capable of with the relatively small causalities it inflicts on Israel.

The real world is not a computer game where the sides have to be evenly matched. Neither is morality relative to military power.

I don't doubt most of Israel would love it if they could push a button and kill everyone related to Hamas without harming a single innocent fly. But against this desire not to kill civilians they've also a desire to kill Hamas at all costs. They've got to find a balance somewhere in the middle.
Minimising casualties isn't a binary. Israel does it to some extent like western militaries. But there's a very valid debate as to whether they usually do this enough and at the current moment especially whether they will lower their standards.

Minimizing casualties is not the same as accepting no casualties. Hamas hides behind civilians, breaking international law in the process. Israel goes after military targets hiding behind civilians, following international law in the process. If all you had to do to be invincible was to hide behind a civilian then no democracy could ever win a war.

They have obviously lowered their standards, it is a real shooting war, not a police action.

Also this is a dodgy line of thought that I'm sadly seeing a lot online. Hamas are evil shits. Thats beyond doubt... But that they're awful doesn't give Israel permission to act the same way in return when most of the people who'll be killed have nothing to do with Hamas. "They're not as bad as Hamas" is a pretty terrible defence if they're still not taking enough care to minimise civilian causalities.

Do please define "enough care to minimise civilian causalities". And whilst you are at it tell us in a realistic manner how Israel can wage war, win against Hamas and at the same time follow your definition.

[Josquius]

Not exactly comparing like with like there though.
Israel has the firepower to completely wipe Gaza clean. Hamas is pushing the absolute max its capable of with the relatively small causalities it inflicts on Israel.

The real world is not a computer game where the sides have to be evenly matched. Neither is morality relative to military power.

I don't doubt most of Israel would love it if they could push a button and kill everyone related to Hamas without harming a single innocent fly. But against this desire not to kill civilians they've also a desire to kill Hamas at all costs. They've got to find a balance somewhere in the middle.
Minimising casualties isn't a binary. Israel does it to some extent like western militaries. But there's a very valid debate as to whether they usually do this enough and at the current moment especially whether they will lower their standards.

Minimizing casualties is not the same as accepting no casualties. Hamas hides behind civilians, breaking international law in the process. Israel goes after military targets hiding behind civilians, following international law in the process. If all you had to do to be invincible was to hide behind a civilian then no democracy could ever win a war.

They have obviously lowered their standards, it is a real shooting war, not a police action.

Also this is a dodgy line of thought that I'm sadly seeing a lot online. Hamas are evil shits. Thats beyond doubt... But that they're awful doesn't give Israel permission to act the same way in return when most of the people who'll be killed have nothing to do with Hamas. "They're not as bad as Hamas" is a pretty terrible defence if they're still not taking enough care to minimise civilian causalities.

Do please define "enough care to minimise civilian causalities". And whilst you are at it tell us in a realistic manner how Israel can wage war, win against Hamas and at the same time follow your definition.

No.
That's a shit tonne of work. People devote their full time career to drafting such plans.
Besides, I don't believe Israel's current plan is public knowledge so even if I was so inclined to meet this bad faith challenge how would I suggest improvements?

All we can do is not get carried away with the die muslims die hysteria infecting the internet and keep pressure on Israel to behave themselves and remember they're held to a much higher standard than terrorists.

[Threviel]

I'm just trying to nuance the "Israel bad bad bad" message. Looking at the two sides and their supporters across the world it just astonishes me that otherwise fully functional adults do not support Israel in this.

[Josquius]

I'm just trying to nuance the "Israel bad bad bad" message. Looking at the two sides and their supporters across the world it just astonishes me that otherwise fully functional adults do not support Israel in this.

Likewise I think we need nuance to the "Muslims bad bad bad. Israel  always 100% good" message. I find it astonishing that otherwise fully functional adults are getting on board with the calls for extreme vengeance.

[Threviel]

I think you will find those calls mostly in your head.

But hey, at least you have North Korea, Russia and Iran in your corner. Friends are nice.

[Josquius]

I think you will find those calls mostly in your head.

You mean like the Hamas support in yours?

But hey, at least you have North Korea, Russia and Iran in your corner. Friends are nice.

They're in your corner

[Threviel]

I should get back to work instead.