Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Tamas]

My take on the Israeli response is somewhat nuanced. If Israeli intends to reoccupy the strip, brutal as it is--it makes their bombing campaign more reasonable in my mind--there is no way to reoccupy Gaza peacefully and without destroying a lot of infrastructure.

I view this bombing campaign differently if it is purely retaliatory, I think that is a different moral weighting than when you're doing something that may be part of tactical necessity to soften up Hamas defenses (which have likely been continually built since 2007.)

If I was to critique Israel in the moment I would say I think there is no tactical requirement to starve out the Gazans, yes--in traditional siege warfare that is a primary tactic, and yes, Israel (like the United States, India and Turkey) is not a signatory to Geneva AP1, which forbids that sort of siege warfare, but it IMO is not necessary and there is a moral obligation not to impose so much human suffering on civilians unnecessarily.

Thanks for the summaries OVB.

My moral problem with the total siege is what is the point? Requiring unconditional surrender of Hamas and the populace? So what if they get it? It's not like Hamas won't stockpile their weapons anyhow and start guerilla warfare once the IDF is there.

[Threviel]

Could it be an ethnic cleansing on the way? If, like OvB wrote, they plan to roll up Gaza from north to south, could it be that they plan to push everyone into Egypt?

[mongers]

Could it be an ethnic cleansing on the way? If, like OvB wrote, they plan to roll up Gaza from north to south, could it be that they plan to push everyone into Egypt?

I think it was Hami that reported that, not Otto.

[Threviel]

Could it be an ethnic cleansing on the way? If, like OvB wrote, they plan to roll up Gaza from north to south, could it be that they plan to push everyone into Egypt?

I think it was Hami that reported that, not Otto.

My bad, sorry, Hami.

[Threviel]

I was just thinking that the first order of business for an invasion ought to be to get control of the Egyptian border. That stops things from coming in/out and it gives the Egyptians alibi for not assisting the Palestinians.

That's if the goal is to get control and re-instate control. A north to south invasion doesn't really make sense in that context.

Of course, there might be logistical limitations, or something like that, that I'm unaware of that makes a north to south invasion necessary.

[DGuller]

Where does Egypt stand?  Do they keep their end of the prison walls closed because they want nothing to do with Palestinians as well, or are they doing it to create problems for Israel?  It sounds like Egypt is on relatively good terms with Israel, but then forcing them to deal with refugee problem seems unwarranted.  Does Israel really need Egypt back on its list of enemies?

[Gups]

Eygpt don't want anything to do with Hamas. They've only just got to grips with the Muslim Brothrrhood.

[Iormlund]

From what little I've read (unverified), suicide attacks in Egypt go down massively when they close the border with Gaza.

So I doubt they'll open them. Maybe to women and children, if someone else pays for them.

[Threviel]

We should remember that the Palestinians are the second most disliked people in the Middle East. Absolutely no-one want them inside their borders.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Where does Egypt stand?  Do they keep their end of the prison walls closed because they want nothing to do with Palestinians as well, or are they doing it to create problems for Israel?  It sounds like Egypt is on relatively good terms with Israel, but then forcing them to deal with refugee problem seems unwarranted.  Does Israel really need Egypt back on its list of enemies?

Egypt has largely not allowed significant people movements between Gaza and Egypt for years. Technically to cross over, before this all started, as a Palestinian you had to get a "pass" from Hamas, which was often sold for $4000 USD (a huge sum for Gazans.) You also were legally required to only be coming over for a visit with family or a limited trip. Now, just like any such system some Palestinians violate those rules and never go back to Gaza.

Otherwise, there are very limited circumstances where you can legally get permission to move from Gaza to Egypt, but it is very, very limited. As others have said, the primary reason for this is Egypt does not want a lot of Palestinians living in Egypt where they will be refugees primarily being the responsibility of the Egyptian state.

I think most Palestinians that get into Egypt are smuggled or they buy passes and then never cross back to Gaza, but Egypt has no interest in a "general" open border where Gazans can freely migrate.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also, Egypt has historically helped Israel enforce the long running "blockade." In theory the blockade has always intended to only block materials that can be used to develop weapons or military capacity, but some technology and supplies that have both civil and military uses, are blocked as well. Egypt has helped enforce that by inspecting cargo going into Gaza and following Israel's rules on what is allowed in and isn't allowed in.

Anyone expecting Egypt to just help the Palestinians by opening their pockets or borders, that is not going to happen.

[Josquius]

Though needs noting not everyone in Egypt will follow the government line- see the recent murders.
I expect the border guards will be corrupt as shit.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, I mean the blockade has never been perfect--otherwise Hamas would not have been able to amass such a huge arsenal since 2007. It  has always been somewhat porous--which is kind of how the world works, border controls can almost always be bypassed by determined smugglers. One of the few exceptions has been North Korea, but they are aided by basically a giant militarized minefield called the DMZ separating them from South Korea. Most of DPRK's border "porosity" has been along its longer and less militarized border with China, however even that has never been easy to cross--the border with China is like 70% covered by the Yalu river, which is non-trivial for people to cross covertly and safely; and the tiny border with Russia has usually been tightly manned. In recent decades DPRK has done a lot of work to fully seal off the limited holes in its northern border so even a lot of that is shut down now.

But most the rest of the world you just don't see that level of shutting a border down, it is not normally feasible over big distances.

[Hamilcar]

Massive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

[Jacob]

OvB - total aside here - my understanding is that there's non-trivial smuggling across the border between North Korea and China; people and goods.