Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Sheilbh]

Maintaining control over a territory is significantly different than establishing control over a territory.

Yeah and I agree with OvB's points - especially if it is long term.

The other point is that for all countries except the US you need to make choices. If the IDF is occupying Gaza and the West Bank that might require a different approach in those areas and it might have a knock on effect on Israel's posture elsewhere.

I suppose the other goal with retaliation could be the strategic shock point. Israeli territory was invaded, towns were taken and it took the IDF hours to get there to respond and in some cases were still fighting Hamas one or two days later. For a country like Israel with its history and that has always relied on its deterrence threat that's a huge shock. They may want to try and restore deterrence in this operation by demonstrating the IDF's capabilities - although I'm not sure if attacking or occupying Gaza would really do that.

[Josquius]

But it helps a lot that Egyptian border guards are likely to be very underpaid, poorly controlled, and, very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause in general and probably to the broader idea of violence being necessary.

Gotta be impressed with your knowledge of teh opinions of Egyptian Border guards. Any factual basis for it?

Tonnes. Eg

https://m.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/the-high-price-to-escape-gaza-corruption-on-the-egyptian-border-467011

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, and Israel / Netanyahu have been very vague on what their end goals are.

I can imagine a lot of things short of a full occupation. For example, more and more reporting is showing that Israel had really not taken security on the Gazan border very seriously in a long time.

They were overly reliant on cheap options--camera systems, unmanned drone monitoring, electronic alarms. It was clearly geared towards a system where you get automatically alerted if something is going on--and you're probably expecting it, at worst, is like 3-4 Hamas terrorist finding a way through the border. You then dispatch a squad of soldiers to take them out, worst case scenario.

It was simply not being maintained or manned to handle a true, mass breach and literally what would be the U.S. equivalent of a brigade sized force of Hamas and other groups (Islamic Jihad et. al.) surging into southern Israel.

Retooling the entire approach to the security barrier--which would mean having to man it more heavily, would be an option, and one that would cost more than what they were doing before, but a lot less than a full reoccupation.

But if you take Bibi at his word that Hamas will no longer be allowed to rule, well that doesn't happen by beefing up the barrier, that requires invasion and occupation.

[Sheilbh]

Although the balance and risk for Israel with that is if what happens in Gaza inspires revolts in the West Bank, riots in Jerusalem and attacks from Hezbollah. I'm not sure how much the IDF/Israel can respond to simultaneously - it's been a very long time.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The West Bank is a lot less equipped to riot because they haven't been able to build a giant arsenal for 15 years, since they have been occupied the entire time.

The northern border is also disadvantageously guarded by a lot of conventional military assets--which IMO is why Hezbollah has mostly been sending mortars and such. A militant group doesn't do well on the offensive into prepared defensive positions manned by professional soldiers. Hezbollah's (limited) successes against Israel have always been in situations where Israel is inside Lebanon and having to fight them in insurgent style warfare, it would be very hard for an organization like Hezbollah to directly attack the IDF defensive positions in the north without suffering unbelievable casualties.

You would need Syrian Army probably with significant boots on the ground from Iran to push through the North I think. (Which carries a real risk of direct U.S. intervention.)

[The Minsky Moment]

The Syrian army needed heavy Russian and Iranian support to defeat ragtag rebels; I don't think they would pose much of a threat to even scratch IDF forces.

[viper37]

Hamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

Someone I know from another board has Palestinian family and lived there for a while.

I've never been on very good terms with the guy, but I respect him and his opinions on the conflict, without agreeing entirely with his vision.

His opinion on Hamas is that it's a classic terror group move: they don't care what you or I think about them, they don't care what Jordan and Egypt think.  What they hope to achieve is to convince Israel that the price they pay to occupy Palestine is so high that it ain't worth it.  Eventually, they will have no choice but to withdraw from a huge part of the occupied territories because their civilian population will have had enough.

I do not believe Hamas has any realistic chance of seeing this happening.  Israel will reduce the entire Gaza strip to rubble before they cede a contiguous territory to Palestinians in the West Bank.

Here is an opinion piece in the Globe I think will internet you.  The author makes a similar point to yours and an early point Otto made about the aims of Hamas.  It also goes into some detail regarding why Israel's policies and response make no sense and guarantees endless conflict.  I have gifted it so no need to worry about the paywall

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/LII7G6N6CFC6JD3FLXAAXVEVMM/

Thanks, interesting read.

Haarez Editorial also blamed Netanyahu for the Hamas attack. There is dissent, but it is small, because the rethoric is, and will be huge.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Gallant, Netanyahu and even to a degree Gantz have all made quasi-apocalyptic comments in the wake of forming the national unity government.

Bibi going so far as to say "every member of Hamas is a dead man."

[FunkMonk]

It is difficult for me to believe, after Israel was invaded and hundreds of Israeli civilians killed, that Israel will just refortify the border or conduct an intensive bombing campaign. I think it is more probable that a ground invasion and reoccupation will occur.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I agree--the level of men and heavy equipment already moved to South Israel is basically indication of nothing other than a ground invasion. My guess is they want to plan as extensively as possible though, going into an enemy city is no small thing.

[viper37]

When the U.S. occupied Baghdad, population 6.2 million, they allocated 6 brigades for the task. And whilst several major battles broke back out in Baghdad during the occupation, those forces did hold the city for years.

Afaik, the US was not alone, there were coalition troops and Iraqi police and military patrolling with them too.  I can not get specific numbers for Baghdad, only the total numbers for Iraq.

There were lots of military and civilian casualties during this war too, marked by urban warfare.

I don't know about the number of brigades needed, but I know there will be zero cooperation from the locals.  The IDF will have to cleanse the area.  It wil be ugly.

How many will oppose the actions openly and dare be call traitors, collaborators to the Hamas in the face of such atrocities?

It's gonna be much worst than the Freedom Fries and a boycott on Cabernet Sauvignon.

[OttoVonBismarck]

When the U.S. occupied Baghdad, population 6.2 million, they allocated 6 brigades for the task. And whilst several major battles broke back out in Baghdad during the occupation, those forces did hold the city for years.

Afaik, the US was not alone, there coalition troops and Iraqi police and military patrolling with them too.

Depends on when you are talking--the 6 brigades number is from 2003, and the coalition troops all had "zones" they were assigned to, as far as I can remember the British weren't in that zone, and they were the only significant manpower ally in the Iraq invasion.

In later eras like 2006+ there were Iraqi forces.

[PJL]

I agree--the level of men and heavy equipment already moved to South Israel is basically indication of nothing other than a ground invasion. My guess is they want to plan as extensively as possible though, going into an enemy city is no small thing.

Yeah, from what I've heard Israel has more soldiers prepped to go into Gaza than Russia had invading Ukraine.

[Sheilbh]

Haarez Editorial also blamed Netanyahu for the Hamas attack. There is dissent, but it is small, because the rethoric is, and will be huge.

I'm not so sure on dissent being and remaining small - I think Israel is a pretty argumentative, occasionally fractious (in a good way, and recently a bad way) democracy. And I think security is too important in Israel to tolerate mistakes or failures.

Haaretz is sort of to be expected but is making serious charges. You've also had former defence chief of staffs who are close to Gantz saying that there shouldn't be a national unity government and that Netanyahu should resign. There's been others making similar points - quite angrily.

Again, to an extent that's to be expected, but I think even as there is a period and a government of national unity, and there is unity in grief and a need to retaliate, the dissent is still there and I don't think it'll go away or diminish. From what I've seen the tone is nothing like what I remember of the US post-9/11 - there is (again I think admirably) more argument and fractiousness still.

Edit: E.g. Israeli ministers getting absolutely barracked by people when visiting hospitals. I understand they're being told "you ruined the country", blaming them for division in the country etc. Via an Israeli journalist - this minister brought the last coaltion down by switching to Likud:
https://x.com/Meir_Marciano/status/1712115635994472923?s=20

These attacks were in the heart of old left Israel - one of the kibbutzes hit still gives most of its votes to Labor (nationally polling within the margin of error). This attack is directly on the fracture in Israel - and people there are angry that they were left on their own for hours with Hamas marauding because the IDF were protecting the coalition supporting settlers in the West Bank. I don't know when Netanyahu will go but I don't think it's possible to survive this, especially if more stories come out about warnings. The worst attack in Israeli happened on his watch, it largely affected communities who didn't vote for him and there seems to be a perception (which may be true) that the IDF weren't there to protect those Israelis because they were focusing on protecting the constituents of his coalition allies.

[mongers]

AJ have video of a release female hostage and her two small children approaching the border barriers.

Maybe Hamas hopes that trigger-happy soldiers will kill them?

Details here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/11/hamas-video-appears-to-show-release-of-woman-two-children