Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Sheilbh]

What are they hoping to accomplish out of this?

I thought this analysis was pretty persuasive (I have no idea) and of the two options for Israeli response I think it'll be number 2:

Yair Wallach
@YairWallach
There are obvious parallels between the current attack and the 1973 war. In both cases, Arab leaders had reached out to Israeli leadership, and were rebuffed. Sadat to Golda's government, and Sinwar to Netanyahu (he even sent him a note in Hebrew)
In both cases, careful Arab military preparation was able to completely surprise an over-confident Israeli government and military.
But that's where the similarities end. 1973 was a war between militaries, and this time civilians will pay the highest price.
In 1973 there was a clear Egyptian calculus: a limited attack and achievement, leading to negotiations and full withdrawal from Sinai. This coincided with the shift from Soviet patronage to US one. Sadat took a risk, but the context was there to support it.
It is not clear to me what Hamas are hoping to achieve, Their position is extremely weak. The likely outcomes are either (1) Israeli re-occupation of Gaza  (2) prolonged bombing campaign. A political deal? With this Israeli govt? extremely unlikely.
Hamas were willing to settle for a mini-state in Gaza and a long term truce with Israel. That deal was on offer, but Israel wasn't interested. Better to keep Gaza as an open air prison forever - what's the worst they could do? Occasional rocket attack?
So that proved wrong. And what now? Remember that for large parts of this government, escalation is good. It allows them a pretext to attack Palestinians elsewhere. Retaliation attacks in the west bank, inside Israel, removal of villages, mass arrests. They'll do what they can
I don't buy the commentary that it's all about the Saudi deal. Everyone knew a major escalation was about to happen - Israeli measures in the last years led that way. Full on annexation, land grub, ethnic cleansing, breaking the status-quo in Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount
It looks like Hamas preferred it to be *their escalation*, rather than start with a popular Intifada in the West Bank. And even if they suffer badly, they still position themselves as the real Palestinian leadership for the next stage.
8/

[HisMajestyBOB]

Sigh.  Are people EVER going to stop trying to kill the Jews?

The Europeans have largely stopped.
Mainly because they already killed them all.

[OttoVonBismarck]

There are a lot of moving pieces here--but I doubt we go back to the status quo before--which was Gaza being an open air prison, internally administered by Hamas.

I very strongly doubt Israel wants a full re-occupation of Gaza, but I think there is no chance they go back to just letting Hamas run Gaza day to day. I'm not sure what the end state looks like, but I have a suspicion it involves Israeli military activity within the borders of Gaza becoming a standing matter, and not just a simple retaliatory move.

[Hamilcar]

Absolutely awful. The brutality and brazenness of the attack has probably ended all remaining hope for a peaceful solution. This is the Israeli 9/11. Gaza will be razed.

The only question that remains is if Iran and Hezbollah are going to expand the conflict to a regional war.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

My understanding is the IDF was disproportionately positioned along its border with Hezbollah controlled territory--so them trying to jump in likely will result in very, very massive Hezbollah casualties. Hamas's initial attack seems to have gone well for them because of the light IDF presence in the region and total surprise, Hezbollah would have none of that going for them were they to jump in.

[Hamilcar]

Hezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Just checked and haven't seen this on any reputable sources.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

This is the end of public political opposition to his coalition. The end of drama over his authoritarian reforms.

it might indeed complete the transformation of Israel into just another middle-eastern state. Probably depends on how bad it gets.

[OttoVonBismarck]

From Bruno Gantz, head of the opposition in Israel:

"I want to say clearly, in a way that resonates from Gaza, via Beirut, to Tehran: The entire people of Israel are united," he says. "All Israel's citizens stand behind the security forces, and the government has the backing to charge a heavy, painful and effective price in order that an event like this is not repeated."

"There is no coalition and opposition now," Gantz adds, "just a single fist that will pound the enemy."

[mongers]

I think Yom Kippur is a weak comparator, 9/11 seems better in terms of an unexpected attack that will have huge and unpredictable outcomes.
Though 9/11 succeeded due to it's extreme asymmetric nature and a good deal of luck for the planners and attackers.
Whereas it's magnitude of this Hamas attack, rather than the tactics used that make it so different; almost like they've gathered together all of their remaining resources and launched a massive banzai attack on Israel.

Hamas will be a spent force at the end of this, much like Al-Gaeda, probably replaced but other new forces?

Tonight or maybe over the next few days could see retaliatory settler programs in the West Bank, I can't see much that'll restrain them if they do. And if so, the PA police/armed forces will have to get of the fence and come to the aid of Palestinian civilians, which then means a wider fight with IDF.

Though that's just one scenario, it's likely/probably for this to spread into the West Bank anyway due to other causes.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The thing is this also makes the West Bank seem like the preferred model.

Roughly speaking we've seen two different approaches. In Gaza, Israel ultimately dismantled its settlements and force deported the Israel settlers back to Israel proper, and then unilaterally withdrew from Gaza.

While there have been minor clashes since that time, in some ways Gaza was viewed as somewhat "resolved" from the Israeli perspective. It didn't require active occupation, and while the Gazans lives were abject misery due to the blockade, it was not nearly as resource consuming as the permanent IDF occupation of the West Bank.

Hamas saber rattled and occasionally launched largely ineffective rocket strikes, but that was it.

This changes all the narrative.

Now, the West Bank is going to be seen as the preferred solution, right? The West Bank cannot be utilized for attacks like this because it is perpetually occupied by the IDF, and the local "government" as much as it exists in the West Bank collaborates with the IDF.

The more I think about it the more I think we're going back to a full IDF occupation of Gaza, because the rhetoric in Israel is going to demand an attack like this can never happen again. The only way you can say for sure is to keep the "war in Gaza" by...keeping the war in Gaza. (Of course that is no guarantee terrorist attacks stop in Israel, but it will mean they won't be large scale offensives that Hamas can prepare on its relatively safe side of the border.)

While I think this is a worsening of conditions of Israel, it is probably several orders of magnitude worsening of conditions of Palestinian civilians in Gaza when all is said and done.

[Josquius]

Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

for hamas every jew living in 'Palestine' is one too many, and there's still one. So nothing has been accomplished yet.
Be less naive about that ideology

[Tamas]

Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

When did Hamas ever say they are content to turn just Gaza into an independent state? Aren't they still for eradicating the state of Israel? What's the confusion here?

[Josquius]

Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

for hamas every jew living in 'Palestine' is one too many, and there's still one. So nothing has been accomplished yet.
Be less naive about that ideology

You're the naiive one here. You seem to think Hamas are comic book villains who seriously believe they can actually beat Israel in a war and chuck all the Jews into the sea, rather than just the rulers of a bantustan in the corner of the country.
There's absolutely no way they actually think they can get any ethnic cleansing of land outside gaza outside of this.