Israel-Hamas War 2023

[jimmy olsen]

Also Ynet is reporting that the head of Egyptian intelligence warned Netanyahu ten days before the attack that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place around Gaza and this was dismissed by Netanyahu who, reportedly, said that the IDF was focused on fighting terror in the West Bank where attacks were actively being carried out.

Netanyahu's office has called the report "a lie".

Again I think the mood of national unity is going to be short-lived. It will be political very quickly (in a way I think this is possibly, like the protests, a sign of the health of Israeli democracy despite all the concerning stuff). We've already seen Haaretz explicitly blame Netanyahu. I don't think this will be the end of reports about how and why the focus was on the West Bank. At the same time Netanyahu and his coalition were attacking the security apparatus as being infected by the left because of Shin Bet, Mossad etc leaders saying the divisions over judicial reforms were weakening Israeli society and security - they were not just causing the protests but also reservists refusing call ups. I think the coalition will return to that line of attack.

I suspect this means we might not see a national unity government - in practical terms I think this war will be prosecuted by what, reportedly, Netanyahu considers to be a dysfunctional security cabinet which includes extremists on the far right. I think that is concerning. I also think Israeli politics will be very combustible as these types of stories come forward. From the outside I can't see how Netanyahu can survive, but I think we've all thought that before - but I think this may entrench further and deeper which is not good either.

Times of Israel says it's true
https://twitter.com/allenanalysis/status/1711849301842760034
https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

Israeli media reports now confirm that the government did receive clear warnings from Egyptian intelligence about the imminent attack that occurred on October 7.

Initially, the Prime Minister's office issued a flat denial after the first report, but then they reversed their stance and admitted to receiving these warnings.

As the conflict between Hamas militants and Israel enters its third day, reports indicate that Israeli intelligence agencies may have been caught off guard.

Egyptian intelligence officials reportedly warned Israel about a significant threat, but Israeli security agencies were said to have misinterpreted the situation.

An Egyptian intelligence official stated that Israeli officials were primarily focused on the West Bank and underestimated the threat from Gaza.

The Israeli administration under Benjamin Netanyahu had been preoccupied with addressing violence in the West Bank, often linked to tensions with Jewish settlers.

This revelation raises questions about the government's initial response to the warnings and how they handled the situation.

[Tamas]

One thing this means is that Nethanau will try to prolong the conflict in time and high intensity as long as possible to thus delay any official inquiries into this and his role in it.

[Threviel]

Apparently Israel has warned Egypt that any aid coming from that direction will be bombed. They are really not fucking around this time.

[Sheilbh]

Unfortunately the decapitated babies claim has been republished in Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, and in official statements by the IDF. Whilst I have chosen not to view them, there are currently some real bad subreddits on reddit that apparently have some pictures as well.

That's fucking grim

Just on this - it may still be true. But Sky News had a section just now which was running through today's papers, many of which lead with this story.

Sky explained they're not covering it as their reporters have not confirmed it, they've asked the IDF to confirm it three times (as the story was sourced to "a soldier") and they haven't. They're now explaining that what the IDF has said is that it doesn't have such confirmation.

Which I thought was interesting as it seems that may not be confirmed, yet, despite being a big story covered widely. Slight reminder to handle with care at this stage. Also I think it's something media should do a lot more which is explain their process.

[Josephus]

As I said very early on, it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis knew about this beforehand. This conflict ticks a lot of boxes in Netanyahu's "things I need to do" list.

1. Unity government
2. Popular support
3. World permission to exterminate Hamas with extreme prejudice

An inquiry may come 2-3 years down the road, but by that point other things would have happened. Bibi is a lot like Trump that way, shit doesn't stick.

[Threviel]

Egyptian intelligence warned Israel, but it seems they misunderstood or perhaps rather underestimated their enemy. Victory disease is nothing new.

Concerning decapitated babies: Tweet from Ryan Evans linking another tweet by Margot Haddad in French that seemingly confirms the story.

It doesn't really matter if they decapitated babies. Sure, it's horrible beyond measure to decapitate babies, but it's also horrible beyond measure to kill babies without decapitating them. The discussion about the veracity of the beheadings take away from the fact that they killed babies, the method matters little.

[The Minsky Moment]

You have justified forcing Palestinians off their land because war and now because of some at least partial occupation going all the way back to the 20s.

I'm quite certain I haven't justified anything or sought to justify anything. 

[Tamas]

As I said very early on, it wouldn't surprise me if the Israelis knew about this beforehand. This conflict ticks a lot of boxes in Netanyahu's "things I need to do" list.

1. Unity government
2. Popular support
3. World permission to exterminate Hamas with extreme prejudice

An inquiry may come 2-3 years down the road, but by that point other things would have happened. Bibi is a lot like Trump that way, shit doesn't stick.

As I mentioned, my worry is that now the war against Hamas will need to be extended ad infinitum. Otherwise Bibi may get another reason to be sent to prison for, definitely to lose power for and then risk going to prison for his other stuff. He already showed himself perfectly willing to wreck Israel to keep in power.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Reinforcing what we all know--the strikes on Gaza truly are unprecedented. I know it is easy to reduce the bombings to "background noise", because we are used to bombings over there, but there really has never been a bombing campaign of this nature ever before in this conflict.

UN is reporting 260,000 displaced.

IDF reporting indicates 2600+ strikes have been carried out, including 1300+ being multistory buildings (most of which we can presume were damaged beyond repair, based on the sort of strikes we are seeing.)

UN officials have indicated over 25,000 housing units have been permanently destroyed.

The complete blockade is also unprecedented.

Gaza's sole domestic power plant ran out of fuel over night, and with Israel's shutoff of electric transmission lines, that means there is no longer any central power generation in Gaza whatsoever. Hospital officials have said Gaza's hospitals may have a day or 2 of generator fuel left, after which they will have zero electricity whatsoever.

Generator usage is common in Gaza in general due to the frequency of short power interruptions, but fuel is also fully blockaded and is expected to be completely used up within a couple of days.

Israel has moved by all accounts over 100,000 troops, huge numbers of armor and APCs South to Gaza.

The nature of the large scale neighborhood "leveling" bombing on the near side of the wall inside Gaza makes me think at least some of this is IDF "making a hole" so they can eventually move a significant number of their ground forces into the other side of the wall without them being stuck in the middle of crowded streets (which are anathema to large troop formations due to all the avenues of attack.)

There has also been reports of massive bombing around Gaza's coastal and port facilities--which many observers believe show signs of being a preparation for some sort of amphibious landing as well.

[Hamilcar]

Some of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

[mongers]

Some of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Egypt won't have them.

[Grey Fox]

Some of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Egypt won't have them.

Force them. They were on the starting grid for that mess.

[Josephus]

yeah, I really feel for the ordinary Palestinians in Gaza and especially the children. Yes, we hear about the beheaded babies, and I feel for all Israelis too. In fact, my former editor at a Jewish paper I used to work in, just found out his 30-ish niece is among the dead. So it's horrible all around. It doesn't matter who is to blame. Yes, Hamas is a stain on civilization, human animals. There attack has nothing to do with bringing a Palestinian state, and all to do with killing Jews. But the Israeli response is, and will continue to be just as terrible. They may not be beheading babies but as Threviel said, in the end there's gonna be a lot of dead children on both sides.

Egypt should do the right thing and open up their border. At least to women and children.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My take on the Israeli response is somewhat nuanced. If Israeli intends to reoccupy the strip, brutal as it is--it makes their bombing campaign more reasonable in my mind--there is no way to reoccupy Gaza peacefully and without destroying a lot of infrastructure.

I view this bombing campaign differently if it is purely retaliatory, I think that is a different moral weighting than when you're doing something that may be part of tactical necessity to soften up Hamas defenses (which have likely been continually built since 2007.)

If I was to critique Israel in the moment I would say I think there is no tactical requirement to starve out the Gazans, yes--in traditional siege warfare that is a primary tactic, and yes, Israel (like the United States, India and Turkey) is not a signatory to Geneva AP1, which forbids that sort of siege warfare, but it IMO is not necessary and there is a moral obligation not to impose so much human suffering on civilians unnecessarily.

[Hamilcar]

Some of the military people on Twitter are speculating that they're planning to roll up the Gaza strip North to South to push people towards Egypt.

Egypt won't have them.

America will pay. Maybe the Europeans will chip in.