Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Razgovory]

None of those people will rule over me.

I hope you're right.
But their colleagues sort of already are. Didn't the recent funding tranche for Ukraine fall through because of them?

Yeah, but that appears to be temporary.  American leftists don't automatically hate Israel.  Biden is all about giving more aid to Israel.

[Legbiter]

IMO when this happens it is a nail in the coffin for any chance Hamas has in the PR battle, this will make Hamas basically "ISIS" in the minds of most Western media etc, and give Israel virtual carte-blanche to do whatever the fuck it wants in Gaza.

The gang rape and beheading tiktoks they uploaded really put a damper on the PR effort.

Gaza should at least get the Mosul treatment since that's how they want to play.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean I think that's basically happening.

I think the traditional powers of restraint are already at all time lows, not just because of what is happening here but just the overall state of the world and various conflicts already ongoing etc. I think entities that may try to mediate or restrain Israel are just too enervated to do so.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My guess is the U.S. won't want to cross that line, since it never has before in this conflict--but I will note ISIS's hostage executions were probably the single deciding factor in the U.S. deciding to actively join the war against ISIS. I really think if they go down this path we're going to see the end of Gazan self rule.

[PJL]

I think if anyone (including Hamas) thinks Hamas will be in political control of Gaza after this, they are mistaken. I can't see how this doesn't end up with an Israeli military occupation, probably funded with American money. Hamas will still remain as a terrorist organisation but they will not have the levers of power in the area.

Ideally the occupation would become a UN mandated one, but I can't see that happening. As far as the West are concerned they should make sure the conflict is limited to Israeli borders (Gaza, West Bank, S Lebanon).

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think a major concern for the Western powers is this could expand to involve Hezbollah and even Iran. I think that is what the leaders of US / UK / Germany / France are supposedly meeting about.

[Hamilcar]

A wider war seems imminent:

If Hezbollah joins the war, the IDF will completely destroy Damascus and will directly target the Iran-backed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, US warships will support Israel in this war. This message was delivered by Israel via France.

[Tonitrus]

Isn't there a decent danger, that if the war moves from a localized Israel-Gaza fight, to a more general conflict between Israel, Gaza, Hezbollah/Lebanon/Iran...it will be a lot harder for the other area governments (Jordan, Saudi) to just sit quiet.  I imagine even if the rulers would try to keep thing practical, their population may well not.

[crazy canuck]

Oof,  but I disagree with your conclusions.  Netanyahu will find a negligent subordinate to blame and will question the loyalty to the state of Israel if any calls for his removal.

I think the problem with holding Netanyahu accountable, is the brutality of the Hamas attacks and the level of outrage they spark, it will help "paper over" a lot of Netanyahu's troubles. This sort of environment is really the "perfect storm" of benefit for Israel's far right to be able to get away with things they have always wanted.

Exactly so

[Josquius]

None of those people will rule over me.

I hope you're right.
But their colleagues sort of already are. Didn't the recent funding tranche for Ukraine fall through because of them?

Yeah, but that appears to be temporary.  American leftists don't automatically hate Israel.  Biden is all about giving more aid to Israel.

FYI most leftists don't automatically hate Israel.
Even for tankies I believe you might have cause and effect back to front.

A wider war seems imminent:

If Hezbollah joins the war, the IDF will completely destroy Damascus and will directly target tIran-backed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, US warships will support Israel in this war. This message was delivered by Israel via France.

That's all Lebanon needs right now. Since the financial crisis they've been a mess. That port explosion absolutely shattered them.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Isn't there a decent danger, that if the war moves from a localized Israel-Gaza fight, to a more general conflict between Israel, Gaza, Hezbollah/Lebanon/Iran...it will be a lot harder for the other area governments (Jordan, Saudi) to just sit quiet.  I imagine even if the rulers would try to keep thing practical, their population may well not.

I can't see Saudi Arabia fighting a war against Israel allied with Iran. Like we're nightmare scenario with talk like that, because you would see like a Vietnam War era U.S. military involvement in that sort of war, like widespread and years long war with America/Israel vs Iran / Saudi / Jordan etc. Aside from Iran most of these countries enjoy robust security and trade relationships with the United States. They will keep their people in line and avoid a war where they are siding with Iran against the West.

[Josquius]

~
MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
IS THIS WORLD WAR 3?

I have been asked that four times in two days.
The answer is no, not yet.
World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States (a bizarre act that few even in Germany really understood), in December 1941. By then the war in Europe had been going on since September 1939.
In one of my very early posts I commented on the fact that world wars spread relatively slowly. They sort of creep up because they cause a fundamental series of movements on the geo-political chess board.
Those movements allow others to see if the attention of enemies they would not wish to fight openly, have been so successfully distracted - or even taken out of the game, that others can move. They can take risks they wouldn't otherwise have considered.
The defeat of France left its Far Eastern colonies in modern Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos completely exposed. Japan quickly took advantage, taking them over with the acquiescence of the Vichy government.
Now we have N.Korea involving itself in the Ukraine war - because it can harm its arch-enemy, the US, by sending weapons to fight against an American proxy army as they see it. And they're getting paid, probably in hard currency like Yuan, technology and oil. Russia is possibly even supplying the raw materials for the DPRK to manufacture weapons for it. With unlimited slave labour it's the perfect weapons factory from a Russian perspective.
So with the DPRK involved that makes it more global than it was. China wrapped up in civil financial crisis and military command purges however, seems unlikely to test the waters of a Taiwan invasion. That would indeed say, a World War has begun.
There seems no doubt that the Iranians have used the Russians.
They had something Russia wanted - drones and missiles, and in part exchange they obtained Russian acquiescence in rattling Israel as part of the deal. This served Russia practically. It doesn't want Kyiv getting Iron Dome - and over time that's become more likely. Now with its missiles and systems in full use Israel is never going to get around to supplying one to Kyiv.
Now forget the horror and the drama of the last few days and think only of the outcome. Only outcomes matter. Gaza is going to be obliterated. Two million people are going to face depravations and death because of what Hamas has done. It's going to be a tragedy. Israel doesn't need vast amounts of western aid, but we have to show willing because nobody in their right mind gets on the wrong side of the Israelis or doesn't show support, it's political suicide to do nothing even when nothing needs doing. If Iranian backed Hezbollah in Lebanon- a force loathed by the native Lebanese - starts to seriously attack Israel with Iranian backing, then the USS Gerald R Ford on its first active deployment will find itself in combat alongside the Israelis. Iran doesn't want a war on that scale because it could all too easily get out of hand and I think they know it will end badly for them.  The Russians are hardly in a position to offer any support. But if it distracts America, rattles Israel and dislodges the Americans from Syria - their position will be almost untenable - Iran will be pleased with itself. Russia will smile as the American focus moves off of Ukraine. The Jewish lobby in the US is vast and it's an election run up. No US politician worth his salt is forgetting that.
 These aren't conflicts of conquest, they're wars of religion, ideology, hate and influence. They do it because they think they should. Everyone else in the Middle East will sit back and hope to God it doesn't spill over.
If it spreads it will be into Lebanon and Syria. The power vacuum in Syria has never been resolved.
Iran wants it done with and to cement its position, and that suits the Russians and their military bases on the coast. Israel will never permit Iran a permanent presence in Syria on its borders. It barely tolerates Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It all depends now on how much Iran can control its proxies and how far it's willing to let them go.
Russia has been supplying captured western weapons to Iran for use by Hamas, just to stir the pot even more.
Questions will have to be asked about how they got there. Israel controls the land sea and air borders to Gaza - bar one the Egyptians manage. No guesses as to who needs to answer some awkward questions.
The primary end to this is that Gaza will be reduced to rubble, its people will get no aid and everyone will ignore the tragedy because of what Hamas did to, and are doing to Israelis and the hostages they've taken - including terrified children.
The only question now is what happens on the Golan Heights and how far does Hezbollah go in goading the Israelis from
Lebanon?
Iran may find that emotions get the better of its proxies and drag it in to something it doesn't really want. Especially if Hezbollah reacts violently to the inevitable carnage to come in Gaza.
You can't help but wonder who the idiot in Tehran that thought this up is? Did they really think it would be so simple? That they wouldn't poke a dragon that's been desperate for a fight to distract Israelis from the anti-democratic agenda they've been pushing at home? This has played into Netanyahu's hands like nothing else ever could.
This is a shit storm, have no doubt about that. But it's a long way from WW3. However the more you see the more you realise Putin's fingers are in this pie even if direct involvement is his last intention.
America and the west have another challenge to rise to. Oil prices will spike and guess who profits from that-
Moscow and Tehran. Great Power Games. They never end.

[The Brain]

"World War 2 only became that in late 1941. When Japan attacked America, and Germany declared war on the United States"

Ah yes, WW1 1917-1918.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hamas is open to discussions over a possible truce with Israel, having "achieved its targets", a senior official has said.

Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera in a phone interview that Hamas was open to "something of that sort" and "all political dialogues" when asked whether the group is willing to discuss a possible ceasefire.

He also said that Hamas had captured 'tens' of dual-citizens from Israel, including those with Russian and Chinese citizenship.

This combined with the threat to execute hostages makes me think Hamas may actually be shitting its pants right now. I never like to assume people are fully stupid; but it is starting to look like Hamas really thought this would be just the same old tit for tat minor bombing response and then some sort of public hostage negotiation. I think they are starting to realize this is rapidly going to be a battle for survival.

[Hamilcar]

Hamas is open to discussions over a possible truce with Israel, having "achieved its targets", a senior official has said.

Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera in a phone interview that Hamas was open to "something of that sort" and "all political dialogues" when asked whether the group is willing to discuss a possible ceasefire.

He also said that Hamas had captured 'tens' of dual-citizens from Israel, including those with Russian and Chinese citizenship.

This combined with the threat to execute hostages makes me think Hamas may actually be shitting its pants right now. I never like to assume people are fully stupid; but it is starting to look like Hamas really thought this would be just the same old tit for tat minor bombing response and then some sort of public hostage negotiation. I think they are starting to realize this is rapidly going to be a battle for survival.

You mean that the senior leaders are about to get the martyrdom they always preached about and suddenly they have cold feet?