Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Barrister]

Hamas received 40% of the votes in the 2006 elections, which was a plurality, not a majority.  Seventy-five percent of their own voters supported the idea that Hamas should drop its opposition to the existence of Israel, and the main reasons they cited in voting for Hamas was the expected reduction in corruption.  The election was not an endorsement of Hamas terrorism or the aims of Hamas.

on the other hand: you don't vote for a piece of a (terror-)party's program, but for all of it.

Sinn Féin was elected democratically in Ireland, yet it was associated with the IRA for a while.  Its policy was similar to that of the IRA.  Yet, I'm not convinced a majority of its voters voted for terrorism.

That's a completely different story and you know it (and I'm NOT a Sinn Fein fan).

Sinn Fein signed the Good Friday Accords in the 90s.  I don't think they've ever formally renounced the IRA or violence in general, but there hasn't been republican-sponsored violence in Northern Ireland for almost 20 years.

So no, a vote for Sinn Fein in 2023 is not a vote for terrorism.


Mind you I don't really love the idea of holding the people of Gaza today responsible for how the election of 2006 went.

[Valmy]

The reality is that Gaza freely and fairly elected Hamas their leaders in 2006. Granted it was a long time ago, and I would hope that Gazans would vote differently today, but we cannot pretend like there is zero evidence the Gazans support Hamas and their aims.

Hamas received 40% of the votes in the 2006 elections, which was a plurality, not a majority.  Seventy-five percent of their own voters supported the idea that Hamas should drop its opposition to the existence of Israel, and the main reasons they cited in voting for Hamas was the expected reduction in corruption.  The election was not an endorsement of Hamas terrorism or the aims of Hamas.

They won 44.5% of the vote but that is both Gaza and the West Bank. I am operating under the assumption that Hamas had more support in Gaza than the West Bank, but that might not be correct now that I think about it.

In any case Hamas won 15 seats in Gaza, with Fatah taking 6 and minor parties took 3. Pretty solid majority there in the district elections. I am not sure, nor can I easily find, the list results for just Gaza from that election.

None-the-less in an election where moving forward in the peace project was the main thing the United States was hoping for, putting the extremist war party in charge sent a clear message. Palestine doesn't want peace. If, in fact, they elected the extremist war party for reasons other than their desire for extreme war, well that's just another Palestinian tragedy.

Just like if the Israelis just happen to be electing their own right wing warmongers because they just really like their dog catcher policies.

Seems unlikely, but I am not there. I don't know for sure.

[Sheilbh]

I don't trust Bibi to prioritise anything (hostages, getting the murderers, international opinion) over himself and those keeping him in power.

Same - I don't hink there's anything in his past 30 years in Israeli politics to give any reason to think that. Hopefully other parties can have some influence in a national unity government. But if his priorities are keeping himself in power as they've been all the way through the rest of his career then I think they'd be better off stepping away.

That's another interesting dynamic. Hamas sympathizers celebrating the killing of Israelis - especially Israeli civillians - seems to be driving anti-Muslim sentiment and thus increasing support for Israel.

I'm not so sure that's how it's going. There's definitely an increase in Islamophobia in part driven by the protests. I think Sadiq Khan has said hate crimes against Jews and Muslims are up 300% since the attack by Hamas (although hate crimes against Jews are up sixfold - so I'm not sure it's evenly distributed).

Thing I've found striking is how much old school, isolationist and frankly anti-semitic stuff I'm seeing on the American far-right - who are the sort of people I think in previous phases of conflict in the Middle East have been vocal Israel supporters. It's not driving it out yet, but possibly worth watching.

Sinn Féin was elected democratically in Ireland, yet it was associated with the IRA for a while.  Its policy was similar to that of the IRA.  Yet, I'm not convinced a majority of its voters voted for terrorism.

Sinn Fein were and are run by the IRA's Army Council. They are not merely associated, Sinn Fein are the public, political wing of the IRA and take direction from them. They are not a democratic party in any normal sense of the world, according to both the Garda and British police forces.

They've not had a breakthrough in the south but haven't come first in an election and there's still a cordon sanitaire around working with them for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. I think that will break down. I think part of that is declining and distorting memories of the Troubles, their position as a left-wing populist party and, for some in the south, I think a slight cosplaying of radical Republican politics. However I think during the Troubles, Sinn Fein never won more than 2% of the vote in the south.

In the north they have come first. They are, under power-sharing, required to be part of the government - you can't form a government without Sinn Fein and I don't think there's been any point since 1998 when you could have. There is a significant chunk of nationalist opinion in Northern Ireland that believes in physical force republicanism and the violence by the IRA. I don't think it was ever a majority and elections show that nationalists tended to favour the SDLP who were committed to non-violent nationalism. They were also essential in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement, as were, on the other side, the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party. However both have ultimately been supplanted by more radical forces on each side: Sinn Fein and the DUP (who have never endorsed violence and don't have links to loyalist paramilitaries). That might reflect an increasing distance from the violence, but I think it also reflects that mandatory power sharing is pretty zero sum. It normally exists in a post-conflict society and if each community has a say by law then I think that structurally encourages you to vote for the more hardline voices within your community (which I think has also happened in Bosnia and Lebanon, say).

[viper37]

I have no idea how a medical doctor looking up at the night sky could identify F-16s.

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/profzaherkuhail

Prof. Zaher Kuhail (Kyle)
Prof.Civ. Eng., LSBU President,Academy of eLearning-Britain Former Dean Eng.ASU, Founder&President, Univ. of Palestine

It's likely not a typical night sky, it's probably well lit up.

If he saw two fighter aircraft, it's logical to assume he saw F-16s, since that's what the Israeli Air Force mostly use.  They only have an handful of F-35 and they will keep it in reserve for a conflict with a major power.  F-16s are sufficient to destroy Gaza and they are often seen by Palestinians of the area, so they are easily recognizable.

As for the number of casualties, we will have to wait to be certain, but it will be high.

[Sheilbh]

Sinn Fein signed the Good Friday Accords in the 90s.  I don't think they've ever formally renounced the IRA or violence in general, but there hasn't been republican-sponsored violence in Northern Ireland for almost 20 years.

Yeah 2005 is when the IRA announce the end of their "armed campaign" and they decommission their weapons.

There has still been Republican (and Loyalist) violence in Northern Ireland, but it is at a far lower level and it is by dissident paramilitaries, not the main parties to the Good Friday Agreement.

[Jacob]

... there hasn't been republican-sponsored violence in Northern Ireland for almost 20 years.

I'm not sure that's correct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Real_IRA_and_New_IRA_actions#2023

Though Sinn Feinn is not associated with the Real IRA or the New IRA as I understand it.

[viper37]

Sinn Fein were and are run by the IRA's Army Council. They are not merely associated, Sinn Fein are the public, political wing of the IRA and take direction from them. They are not a democratic party in any normal sense of the world, according to both the Garda and British police forces.

See, I knew I could rely on you.  Quicker than to read all of Wikipedia's sources.

[Valmy]

Also I am cynical enough about this conflict that if a Hamas or Netanyahu supporter insisted they had reasons other than wanting to win a victory over their enemies through war or other means...I would be suspicious they are lying either to me or themselves to cover up the fact that they are a bad person.

[Maladict]

Hezbollah is calling for a day of rage tomorrow.

[viper37]

None-the-less in an election where moving forward in the peace project was the main thing the United States was hoping for, putting the extremist war party in charge sent a clear message. Palestine doesn't want peace. If, in fact, they elected the extremist war party for reasons other than their desire for extreme war, well that's just another Palestinian tragedy.

I agree they fucked up royally, whatever their reasoning.  Fatah may have been corrupt, but it was sincere in its desire to move toward peace while Hamas clearly clamored for war against Israel, and that end result was more suffering for the Palestinian people.

Still, the US chose poorly in a couple of elections too.  At the Federal level, anyway.  But Americans had the chance to correct their mistakes (and make others ).  Something the Palestinians never got a chance to, either in Gaza because of Hamas, or in the West Bank because it's unmanageable.

[viper37]

We have also seen that there are large numbers in the west far more than fine with Israeli casualties. There's far more partying in the streets when Hamas kills Israelis than the other way around.

I'm not so sure about that.  It used to be that way, but it's no longer that.  There's a lot of partying in many communities when an IDF strikes kills Palestinians.

[Maladict]

Big job for Biden tomorrow. Imagine Trump flying out there to make a deal with everyone.

[Sheilbh]

Jordan have I think said they won't meet with Biden - I assume because of the hospital.

[Hansmeister]

Big job for Biden tomorrow. Imagine Trump flying out there to make a deal with everyone.

You mean like the Abraham Accord?

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up." - President Obama

Diplomacy isn't going to fix anything in this situation, no matter who is President, the probably that Biden can fix anything (other than some bribes for his family members) is zero.

Israel either invades Gaza and crushes the Palestinian's will to continue fighting, or there is another half-measure that just creates another temporary cease fire.  Most likely just as Israel starts to make progress the rest of the world will pressure Israel to stop short of victory, which means nothing will be resolved and the can will get kicked further down the road until the next attack will be even worse.

[DGuller]

Does a typical Hamas rocket even have the sort of power to level such a large building? I'm obviously viewing things from a perspective of extreme skepticism towards anything reported "from" Hamas, but there is some pictures / video coming out showing a large hospital in ruins, and IDF as far as I can tell has not explicitly said what would happen, just that they "can't confirm."

Yeah, it strikes me extremely unlikely that a single Hamas rocket could do so much damage.  The only scenario that makes sense is if they were firing from the hospital, and the launch accident blew up the whole cache at the launch site.