Israel-Hamas War 2023

[OttoVonBismarck]

Russia has wanted to destroy the U.S. since the days of Josef Stalin. I'm not going to vote for an anti-Israel party.

Russia has nothing to do with Joe Biden deciding to abandon Israel. And frankly, the idea that Russia controls the GOP or that the GOP is going to ally with Russia is nonsense. There is an element of the party that buys into certain Russian narratives because the incidents in 2016 and subsequently have created a perception that doing so burnishes ones opposition to Democrats. But in actual office the Republicans have done little to show an affinity for Russia.

You do remember that it was Trump who was the first American President to ship Ukraine lethal military aid, right? After coward Obama refused to do so for years.

If anything the big defect in modern Republican thinking is the prevalence of isolationism--but frankly, isolationism doesn't put me at risk from Russia. It may put weak European countries at risk--the same countries that happily want to see Israel destroyed. Fuck em.

I do think the GOP in power will be robust defenders of Israel.

[The Minsky Moment]

You do remember that it was Trump who was the first

The Trump *administration* shipped lethal aid under the policy of Mattis, Pompeo, Bolton, etc. But Trump's own view was shaped by his failed attempt  to use that aid flow to blackmail Ukraine into fabricating dirt on Biden.

The guys in the Trump admin that resisted Russia and people like them will not be any future Trump administration. Any thought that Trump will not betray Ukraine is delusional.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Eh, Trump cares a lot about being perceived as strong. His rhetoric has often been "I would force them to accept a peace agreement on day one." When Putin publicly humiliated him by refusing, I think you would see Trump take a different path--he is unable to tolerate anyone crossing him even a little.

[The Minsky Moment]

Eh, Trump cares a lot about being perceived as strong. His rhetoric has often been "I would force them to accept a peace agreement on day one." When Putin publicly humiliated him by refusing, I think you would see Trump take a different path--he is unable to tolerate anyone crossing him even a little.

Tell that to the dead Kurds that faced down Isis for us, only to be slaughtered by Turks when Trump folded lack a pack of cards in a hurricane to Erdogan and forced American special forces to turn tail and run.

Trump knows that for his idiot base all he needs to do to appear strong is talk loudly and say idiotic things. He's already tipped his hand; he's being "tough" because the deadbeat Ukrainians are looking for handouts.

[frunk]

Trump also claimed he would make Mexico pay for the wall and that North Korea would be brought to heel when all he did was give them photo ops.

Much more important to his persona than his tough guy act is his ability to find a distraction for any given situation.

[grumbler]

The idea that you think Israel should have to let Hamas survive to get its people back--which is Hamas's red line for negotiating, is ludicrous and disgusting. They need to just let the Muslims overrun the country today and pogrom all the Jews if that is the line Israel is going to draw. That just says "hurt us more, it gets the results you want." Hamas wants bombs to stop dropping, it should return the hostages and agree to let its leadership go into exile.

I don't know where this comes from.  The question on the table is whether Israel should cease operations until April 9 in the hope of a hostage release.  No plan against Hamas is going to seriously compromised by that. If Hamas has not been destroyed in 24 weeks of continuous military acton, a 2 week hiatus is not going to be critical. If Hamas doesn't comply, Israel will have a green light and UN will be neutered.

That's my argument as well.  Israel is not militarily ready to move on Raffa ight now, by their own admission.  The UN has given them the perfect excuse to hold back on an action they couldn't take anyway, and the fact that it also stops them from bouncing the rubble hurts Israeli security not at all.  By accpeting this resolution and ceasing military operations for two weeks, Israel gets to call the UNSC's bluff and either:
1.  get their hostages back, if Hamas also meets the UNSC's demand, or
2.  eliminate any chance the UNSC can credibly pass any additional resolutions, because Hamas won't meet their demands.

Win-win for Israel.

I suspect that Otto's frothing has much more to do with his desire for an excuse to support Trump than anything to do with the Middle East.

[Jacob]

Trump voters will have Ukrainian blood on their hands if he wins, and will be responsible for emboldening both Russia and China. Extremist Islamists will be emboldened too via their patrons in Iran, as Iran's patron Russia scores a number of victories.

100% Trump is going to undermine Ukraine. He's a coward through and through. He has two modes of interaction with enemies of the West:

1) Bluster and tough talk for his meme-projects and his ego, which unceremoniously folds in the face of any real resistance or potential pay-off; and

2) Sucking up to dictators because he really wishes he could wield that kind of power.

Trump will also undermine NATO and other American alliances and accelerate the estrangement between Europe and the US, but I don't expect that to weigh too heavily for his voters either - it seems to be a desired feature.

[crazy canuck]

I will always stand with Israel, but I hate what is now coming for the Palestinians who aren't part of this insanity and who have just been struggling to get by--because they will bear the brunt of the pain.

While I am not quite sure Netanyahu would knowingly "allow this" to happen, and intelligence failures do happen--I can think of few developments more beneficial for him.

This is the end of public political opposition to his coalition. The end of drama over his authoritarian reforms.

It may even benefit them diplomatically, because all signs are Iran gave blessing to this. A major driver of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been a shared enmity towards Iran, and IMO this could actually help move more of the formal governments of the Arab world into closer relationships with Israel. Maybe not formal signed peace treaties, but I think this actually helps Israel diplomatically in the long run.

It is interesting to compare and contrast what Otto said just a few months ago with the MAGA extremist he has become.

[Josquius]

I want civilians to stop dying in the Levant.
But if it means Russia is stopped then let Israel completely annex and ethnically cleanse Gaza as the nutters want.
It's a drastically less important issue and not one that would be influencing my vote in a meaningful election.

Russia, and through their influence China, are a threat to the world.
Israel is just a threat to their neighbours. Islamic extremists too are no serious threat outside the middle east (   in the way general murderers aren't a threat - it happens but isn't going to destroy the country...unless they are allowed to succeed and we allow Putin analogues to power here)

[DGuller]

I feel like I'm witnessing a mental health crisis unfold.  This is not a rational reaction.  Either that, or it's some Dorsey-level trolling.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I feel like I'm witnessing a mental health crisis unfold.  This is not a rational reaction.  Either that, or it's some Dorsey-level trolling.

Seems like an end of season cliffhanger...

Weird though: Trump sucks Putin sausage, Putin is allied to Iran, which is run by islamist a-holes that want to destroy Israel...

[crazy canuck]

I feel like I'm witnessing a mental health crisis unfold.  This is not a rational reaction.  Either that, or it's some Dorsey-level trolling.

Seems like an end of season cliffhanger...

Weird though: Trump sucks Putin sausage, Putin is allied to Iran, which is run by islamist a-holes that want to destroy Israel...

And destroy the United States.  But apparently that is of little concern.

[Valmy]

John Bolton is outraged and now telling everyone both Trump and Biden will destroy America.

This seems like a pretty unhinged reaction to what seems like not a big deal to me. One would think the entire purpose of the United States is to give Israel money and veto UNSC resolutions about them.

Anyway there is no cease-fire. So who cares what the technicalities of the resolution said?  The main thing this does for us is washing our hands a bit of the blood of all those dead Palestinian Civilians which I guess is fitting during Holy Week.

Israel will continue to push forward and ultimately we will still keep them from most of the potential consequences of that.

[crazy canuck]

It was during my lifetime that we looked to the US for models of good governance. 

[grumbler]

It was during my lifetime that we looked to the US for models of good governance. 

Dubya has a lot to answer for.  He was the first president to embraced the Imperial Presidency.