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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:07:22 PM

Title: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:07:22 PM
Discuss.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on November 07, 2020, 12:10:21 PM
Complete obstruction by Republicans which will be blamed on the Democrats who lose house majority in 2022. (probably not the latter, but surely the former)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 12:13:55 PM
Lots of men shutting up.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 07, 2020, 12:20:00 PM
everything gets blocked, nothing changes. President is literate.
so some improvement overall
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:20:51 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 12:13:55 PM
Lots of men shutting up.
The downside being?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:21:13 PM
Will Biden serve only one term and retire?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zanza on November 07, 2020, 12:30:14 PM
I think Biden will carry on with a tough stance on China and Russia in general and tough on trade and defense expectations with Europe. However, he will strengthen multilateralism and the rules based international order. Definitely better for international relations than the swooning dictator fanboy before him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 12:31:53 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:21:13 PM
Will Biden serve only one term and retire?

Yes, Harris will run in 2024, and the thought of a black lady being Prez will drive people to elect whichever Trump will run against her.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 12:32:41 PM
I think Biden will successfully push for the infrastructure bill that Trump forgot about.  US national infrastructure is in terrible shape and it's hurting competitiveness.  That's an investment both parties say they want.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 12:34:03 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 12:31:53 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:21:13 PM
Will Biden serve only one term and retire?

Yes, Harris will run in 2024, and the thought of a black lady being Prez will drive people to elect whichever Trump will run against her.

I'm not sure Harris will get the nod in 2024.  If I had to bet Harris against the field right now, I'd bet the field.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 07, 2020, 12:38:09 PM
Biden is pretty ancient so I'm wondering if Harris will be busier and have a higher profile than the average VP? If she does then she will also have the chance to make herself look like presidential material or the opposite.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PJL on November 07, 2020, 12:41:44 PM
Let's hope it won't be a shitshow like the last time a Democrat president resigned before the term of office was up, in 1968.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 12:46:34 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 07, 2020, 12:38:09 PM
Biden is pretty ancient so I'm wondering if Harris will be busier and have a higher profile than the average VP? If she does then she will also have the chance to make herself look like presidential material or the opposite.
It's crazy - just think that Biden's first campaign was de-railed beceause he plagiarised his British contemporary Neil Kinnock :blink:

I was looking at this recently and it's amazing how many of the leaders in the US are older than the Father of the House (Sir Peter Bottomley) - I think McConnell, Trump and Biden are, Pelosi is 5 years younger.

I wouldn't be surprised if Harris has a more fulsome role, as Biden did, and I suspect she'll impress. Could be wrong.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 12:49:40 PM
I'm wondering if the assumption that Biden won't run for a second term actually increases his chances of getting legislation through the Senate.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 07, 2020, 12:50:27 PM
Pelosi is 80 btw.

I'm hoping that Harris will be great, but always try and purge such wishful thoughts, too many disappointments over the years.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 12:51:27 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 07, 2020, 12:50:27 PM
Pelosi is 80 btw.

I'm hoping that Harris will be great, but always try and purge such wishful thoughts, too many disappointments over the years.
Oh wow - so she's far older. Bottomley is only 76 and first elected, I think, in 1974.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 07, 2020, 12:52:39 PM
My biggest prediction is that Biden will likely announce after the 2022 midterms (regardless of their result, I think he just won't announce before them) that he will not seek a second term.

I think Biden will try genuine bipartisanship and not succeed.

I think the more interesting questions will be how do the Democrats and Republicans go forward. There have been a few times in history where Presidents have been able to run vigorous midterm campaigns against inactive congresses and won, but that has usually been "riled up" Presidents good at riling other people up, which Joe Biden isn't. I think the Republicans are still on their same bad demographic track, but will be well positioned to win elections and keep fighting through 2030. I think the biggest issue the GOP will have going forward is to some degree Obama and Hillary were perfect for getting right wing agitation really high. I have a strong suspicion muddling Joe, who won't actually get any far lefty policies passed with a Republican Senate, will be much harder to keep people riled up about. At the same time I think the Democrats don't have any amazing way to rile up their people either.

I think until further demographic erosion of the white grievance base fundamentally alters America forever, if Democrats want to wield the kind of power they briefly had in 2008-10 they have to find a way to message to and win more votes with the white working class and white rural class. Not "win", not "kowtow to", but at least find a way to get those votes. They aren't even trying now. Even Trump tried to get black votes, which is more than we can say for Dems and rural voters the last few years. If you don't try at all you certainly won't get any.

I hear a lot of people expecting the "Trump surge" voters are hear to stay, but we had a historically high turnout election and those are rare. Voters drawn off the sidelines by a charismatic politician, in American history, rarely become permanent voters when they spent the previous 30-50 years of their lives not voting. Likewise Biden likely got a surge of voters that are either not here to stay, or possibly were quasi-Republicans (like me--although I'm not going back to the GOP unless they shift things a lot, my quixotic goal will be to try to advocate for the Dems being a true centrist style Merkel type party with broad appeal to the broadest portion of voters possible--I doubt me and the people like me will succeed.)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on November 07, 2020, 01:02:55 PM
AOC will run against Don Jr. in 2024 and both will cause a split in their respective parties. US will continue with a 4+ party system, joining the civilized world. :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 01:11:55 PM
I am not sure I am comfortable with Cal jumping FunkMunk's claim like this.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on November 07, 2020, 01:14:38 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 01:11:55 PM
I am not sure I am comfortable with Cal jumping FunkMunk's claim like this.

I'm alright having lived through the horror that transpired after Funks presidential thread.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 07, 2020, 01:15:56 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 01:32:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2020, 01:11:55 PM
I am not sure I am comfortable with Cal jumping FunkMunk's claim like this.
Claim Jumper  :w00t:

(https://www.claimjumper.com/perch/resources/backgrounds/land-sea-desk.jpg)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 01:35:03 PM
Is that a jumper? :blink:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on November 07, 2020, 02:06:47 PM
I have it on good authority, that Pelosi is going to invoke the 25th against Biden and Kamala will be the president before the end of 2021
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2020, 02:29:32 PM
Qanon is not good authority.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on November 07, 2020, 02:35:42 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2020, 02:29:32 PM
Qanon is not good authority.
well thankfully it wasn't  from Q then
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2020, 02:37:32 PM
Some equally reputable source though.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 02:37:40 PM
He will reverse almost everything Trump has done in foreign policy.  He will spend a great deal of time trying to convince hoaxers and antimaskers to behave like grown ups.  He will eventually propose significant Green legislation that will fail in the Senate.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
Don't agree on foreign policy - I think arguably China policy is Trump's only real success that will endure.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 02:39:48 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
Don't agree on foreign policy - I think arguably China policy is Trump's only real success that will endure.

A big order for soybeans in exchange for years of tarriff disruptions?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 07, 2020, 02:41:03 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
Don't agree on foreign policy - I think arguably China policy is Trump's only real success that will endure.

Yeah it was time China was called out on all the BS.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:45:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 02:39:48 PM
A big order for soybeans in exchange for years of tarriff disruptions?
Bipartisan consensus that China is a strategic competitor and can't just be integrated into the international system.

Edit: Which I don't think existed in 2016.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 02:57:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:45:29 PM
Bipartisan consensus that China is a strategic competitor and can't just be integrated into the international system.

Edit: Which I don't think existed in 2016.

I don't think Trump has created an enduring bipartisan consensus that the best way to deal with China is to force them to buy more soybeans and ban Tik Toc.

It will be interesting to see what Biden does about Israel.  Pretty hard to reverse the location of an embassy, and very hard to go past rhetoric when it comes to annexation and all that occupied territory stuff.  Obama tried rhetoric alone and that bluff got called.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on November 07, 2020, 02:58:13 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2020, 02:37:32 PM
Some equally reputable source though.
well it is Tucker Carlson so...
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:03:11 PM
I think that Biden will have a big, fat, neon sign that says "Transitional president" right from the start.  As such, I don't expect him to do anything groundbreaking, Green New Deal style, just steering the country back to a rational course will be already a difficult chore in some aspects, and a possibly obstructionist Senate won't allow him to do anything radical anyway (not that I think that Biden would do that even if he could). With that in mind, I think he'll try to be a "healer" kind of President, bringing the coutnry back together and rebuilding bridges. How successful he'll be will remain to be seen.

His objectives will be, in the short term, applying a logical strategy against Covid and building an appropriate stimulus package to kickstart the economy and support those struggling during the pandemic, as well as bringing the federal apparatus back to speed. I guess he'll have to nominate bucketloads of people to all kind of agencies, some of them to positions that Trump left purposedfully unoccupied, and there'll be a lot of stuff catch up to do. Internationally I see him rejoining all the international agreements that Trump rubished, beginning with the Paris Agreement, and maybe rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal. Just undoing all the Trumpian crap he can will be quite a tall order.

Long term, and if it's pretty clear that he'll be a one term president, he should focus on building up his successor, and logic says that it should be Kamala Harris, so I can see her taking up plenty of responsability during the presidency in order to increase her profile towards the 2024 elections.

The biggest dilemma he'll have to face is if he will really want to investigate and/or prosecute Trump. I'm pretty sure that if a serious investigation takes place enough shit will be found to warrant a proper trial against him. On the one hand it might set up the terrible precedent of a president investigating his predecessor, which might create plenty of bad blood for future elections, but on the other hand doing nothing basically condones doing all kinds of corrupt stuff during a presidency. If I had to bet I'd say he might investigate but won't really prosecute him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
Does Congress need to approve agreements with foreign powers? If it does, will it approve undoing Trump's stuff?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
Which artists will play at Biden's inauguration? All of them?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 03:08:47 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
Does Congress need to approve agreements with foreign powers? If it does, will it approve undoing Trump's stuff?

The Senate needs to approve *treaties* but not things like the Paris Accord or Bubba's memorandum of understanding with North Korea.  IIRC the Iran deal was one of those memo type deals.

So as a side note maybe the formal treaty is dead like the official declaration of war.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 03:11:26 PM
Yeah - Paris was deliberately drafted the way it is to avoid having to get Senate approval.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 03:14:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
Don't agree on foreign policy - I think arguably China policy is Trump's only real success that will endure.

Well Obama was already building an anti-Chinese coalition that Trump split from.

I hope Biden works something out with TPP, though we probably can never join. Not even a Democratic Senate would let him do that now.

But China has worked for a long time to make themselves our enemy. No use pretending otherwise.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 03:21:39 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:45:29 PM
Bipartisan consensus that China is a strategic competitor and can't just be integrated into the international system.

Edit: Which I don't think existed in 2016.

Xi didn't consolidate his power before about 2016.  He's the game-changer, not Trump.

Trump really wasn't that hard on China.  The tariff war hurt the US far more than China, and pretty much ended when China made some vague (and unfulfilled) promises to buy some US stuff. 

Biden isn't beholden to any Chinese banks, so has more room to maneuver with regard to China.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2020, 03:22:39 PM
Also, Biden's IQ is over 50.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 03:26:45 PM
Fine - Trump has no enduring achievements :P

But personally I think it's fair to say that his campaign changed the politics of dealing with China in a way that will last and changed the attitude of Dems as well as the GOP.

I agree he didn't create a new policy consensus but he changed the mood/politics of dealing with China and that matters significantly more than any individual policies. Unrelated to Trump it is a sentiment that has become common in Europe over the last year too so Biden will be able to build an actual policy consensus and actually make it more effective by leveraging US alliances.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 03:26:49 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:03:11 PM
The biggest dilemma he'll have to face is if he will really want to investigate and/or prosecute Trump. I'm pretty sure that if a serious investigation takes place enough shit will be found to warrant a proper trial against him. On the one hand it might set up the terrible precedent of a president investigating his predecessor, which might create plenty of bad blood for future elections, but on the other hand doing nothing basically condones doing all kinds of corrupt stuff during a presidency. If I had to bet I'd say he might investigate but won't really prosecute him.

I think that a "truth and reconciliation" approach is more Biden's style and better for the country.   The excesses need to go on the record, but a trial would be counter-productive.

New York state charges, though, are likely.  As is DJT's bankruptcy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 03:26:49 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:03:11 PM
The biggest dilemma he'll have to face is if he will really want to investigate and/or prosecute Trump. I'm pretty sure that if a serious investigation takes place enough shit will be found to warrant a proper trial against him. On the one hand it might set up the terrible precedent of a president investigating his predecessor, which might create plenty of bad blood for future elections, but on the other hand doing nothing basically condones doing all kinds of corrupt stuff during a presidency. If I had to bet I'd say he might investigate but won't really prosecute him.

I think that a "truth and reconciliation" approach is more Biden's style and better for the country.   The excesses need to go on the record, but a trial would be counter-productive.

New York state charges, though, are likely.  As is DJT's bankruptcy.

Do you think that something from the Mueller Report will be able to be used against him?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 03:47:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
Do you think that something from the Mueller Report will be able to be used against him?

Used "against him" in the Truth and Reconciliation sense?  Yes.  As the basis for criminal charges, no.

I think that we will see the evidence that has not been produced yet.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: 11B4V on November 07, 2020, 04:23:55 PM
Quote from: Caliga on November 07, 2020, 12:07:22 PM
Discuss.

Sanity
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 07, 2020, 04:51:30 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
Don't agree on foreign policy - I think arguably China policy is Trump's only real success that will endure.
China policy was a disaster.  Farmers only live with government grants now, instead of exporting their products.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 04:56:24 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 07, 2020, 04:51:30 PM
China policy was a disaster.  Farmers only live with government grants now, instead of exporting their products.
Fine. It's not a million miles away from that in Australia because China's imposed huge tariffs on certain agricultural products that are heavily exported to China. That isn't because Australia's started a trade war, it's because Australia won't row in behind Chinese political goals.

We may have to subsidise a lot more than farmers to preserve autonomy, but that's worth it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on November 07, 2020, 05:58:45 PM
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 03:26:49 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 07, 2020, 03:03:11 PM
The biggest dilemma he'll have to face is if he will really want to investigate and/or prosecute Trump. I'm pretty sure that if a serious investigation takes place enough shit will be found to warrant a proper trial against him. On the one hand it might set up the terrible precedent of a president investigating his predecessor, which might create plenty of bad blood for future elections, but on the other hand doing nothing basically condones doing all kinds of corrupt stuff during a presidency. If I had to bet I'd say he might investigate but won't really prosecute him.

I think that a "truth and reconciliation" approach is more Biden's style and better for the country.   The excesses need to go on the record, but a trial would be counter-productive.

New York state charges, though, are likely.  As is DJT's bankruptcy.


I would happily forgo the pleasure of seeing Trump jailed if it meant that we could heal the rifts in our society.  I don't want to see anymore street fights between protesters.  I want everyone to take it down a notch.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Monoriu on November 07, 2020, 06:45:47 PM
First thing he needs to do is do something about the pandemic. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 07:09:52 PM
Hope that vaccine is ready soon.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on November 07, 2020, 08:01:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 07:09:52 PM
Hope that vaccine is ready soon.

Trump has it in his back pocket, but since people rejected him he's not going to play ball and will leave the game with still in his possession.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on November 07, 2020, 08:10:34 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

It'll be kinda cool to not have to bother about the US president from one week to the next.

I can just safely assume he's trying to do an good, honest job.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:34:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.

That's encouraging. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:54:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.

Jesus dude. That got dark.

What do you think of his speech?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:55:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:54:01 PM
What do you think of his speech?

Didn't see it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 07, 2020, 08:57:28 PM
One slightly thrilling aspect of a Biden Presidency: a leader who will simply read their speech off a teleprompter.

Never thought I'd miss it so much.

Edit: Also a politician talking about "action plans" and being able to take some hope from the fact that there are actually plans, not just large binders filled with blank sheets of paper propped on a table next to the President.

Edit: And when he quoted from "On Eagle's Wings" I had an alarming moment of recognition. I am 90% sure my nan had a CD with Daniel O'Donnell  doing that song. As someone said on Twitter: Irish Catholic cringe is the next President  :ph34r:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 08:57:35 PM
Ah well it just ended. Very kumbaya, I dug it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 07, 2020, 10:29:36 PM
We need more pics of Biden flirting with biker chicks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 10:54:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.

Haven't seen any of that from him lately.  Are we talking about the same guy?  I'm thinking about the guy that just won the election, and gave a long victory speech that was pretty much memorized.

He seems less prone to gaffes and senility than Bush Jr, or Sr, though not as energetic as, say, Obama or Bill Clinton.

Yeah, we might end up with premature senility, but he doesn't show signs of it.  He's smoother than all but a handful of his competitors, Republican or Democratic.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: derspiess on November 07, 2020, 11:21:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.

Duh.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2020, 11:32:50 PM
We'll see.

He is a baby compared to the fossils running the house  :ph34r:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on November 08, 2020, 12:00:49 AM
Quote from: grumbler on November 07, 2020, 10:54:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
Quote from: Maladict on November 07, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
This thread is not going to sustain Languish like the previous one. :(

I think we might end up with a lot of  :pinch: from Biden's gaffe's and senility.  Maybe some discussion of Article 25.  Maybe discussion of resigning.

Haven't seen any of that from him lately.  Are we talking about the same guy?  I'm thinking about the guy that just won the election, and gave a long victory speech that was pretty much memorized.

He seems less prone to gaffes and senility than Bush Jr, or Sr, though not as energetic as, say, Obama or Bill Clinton.

Yeah, we might end up with premature senility, but he doesn't show signs of it.  He's smoother than all but a handful of his competitors, Republican or Democratic.

I just watched tonight's speech.  It wasn't super-amazing oratory... but it was solid.  It was good.  And it was gaffe-free with no sign of senility.  And miles better than anything out of Trump.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2020, 12:06:56 AM
I mean Biden has been prone to stupid gaffes in the past, and he had some in this election. The hairy legs thing. The you are not really black if you don't vote for me thing. I think he was joking around in both instances but I can never tell.

However since he is following Trump those are not nearly as big of a deal as they used to be.

As far as senility, I don't know. I have a 99 year old great aunt who has no senility at all so I guess it depends if it runs in his family. I don't know. Do you know something Yi?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 08, 2020, 04:21:25 AM
My 91-year-old mother-in-law is still completely sharp....unless she is tired, then things can go downhill. Many (most) people never go senile but everyone's energy levels lower with age. I hope that the new president has a workload that doesn't completely knacker him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on November 08, 2020, 04:24:07 AM
My 20 or even 30 year old me never imagined I'd become an old fart yearning for politics to be boring.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2020, 05:19:22 AM
Quote from: Barrister on November 08, 2020, 12:00:49 AM
I just watched tonight's speech.  It wasn't super-amazing oratory... but it was solid.  It was good.  And it was gaffe-free with no sign of senility.  And miles better than anything out of Trump.
It was a bit one-tone shouty. But I think we should be sympathetic that he's dealing with novelty of giving a speech to hundreds of cars :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on November 08, 2020, 06:31:44 AM
Soooo.... I just learned Joe Bidens middle name is Robinette. Which in French is apparently a random female version of a tap.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 08, 2020, 07:07:04 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 08, 2020, 06:31:44 AM
Soooo.... I just learned Joe Bidens middle name is Robinette. Which in French is apparently a random female version of a tap.

Or a female version of Robin.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zanza on November 08, 2020, 08:19:33 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 08, 2020, 04:21:25 AM
My 91-year-old mother-in-law is still completely sharp....unless she is tired, then things can go downhill. Many (most) people never go senile but everyone's energy levels lower with age. I hope that the new president has a workload that doesn't completely knacker him.
There is precedent for taking several hours executive time per day.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:46:07 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 08, 2020, 12:06:56 AM
As far as senility, I don't know. I have a 99 year old great aunt who has no senility at all so I guess it depends if it runs in his family. I don't know. Do you know something Yi?
Both my paternal grandparents suffered from dementia/alzheimer.  I'm quite certain my grandpa had full blown alzheimer but his stupid doc never bothered with a full diagnostic.  He spent nearly 10 years not talking, not recognizing anyone.  My grandma had the same thing.  And I fear my father is losing memory too, but it seems related or at least worst when he becomes stressed.

And my grandma always troubled with names.  She would name all my uncles and my cousins before getting to my name.  My dad is really bad with names, but his nicknames are more generic than Yi ;).  And I also have some problem with names.  I'll need to have a name repeated quite a few times until I can remember it correctly.  I'll remember a phone number right away, after one reading, but I'm always having a hard time remembering to whome it belongs :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:50:08 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 08, 2020, 06:31:44 AM
Soooo.... I just learned Joe Bidens middle name is Robinette. Which in French is apparently a random female version of a tap.
robinet would be a tap.  robinette would be a deformation of the noun.

Don't think I've ever heard of a woman called Robinette, but maybe the french speaking Euros do have some. They're all weird folks over there, with weird accents. :P

The only instance I would hear Robinette would be to mock someone called Robin, kinda like merging tapette (faggot) with his name.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
I don't think she has a strategy.  She's just pissed off the "establishment" of the party blames her team for not winning more House seats.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
I don't think she has a strategy.  She's just pissed off the "establishment" of the party blames her team for not winning more House seats.

Wasn't her "team" like the most successful of the Democratic party in these elections?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 10:29:32 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
I don't think she has a strategy.  She's just pissed off the "establishment" of the party blames her team for not winning more House seats.

Wasn't her "team" like the most successful of the Democratic party in these elections?
Wouldn't be surprising; when radicals set the agenda, it is moderates who pay.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party

Beat on the table louder?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 10:49:35 AM
BTW, I don't think people like AOC need to be marginalized, I think they're adding a lot of energy to what would otherwise be a geriatric ward.  I also think that they do know something about winning elections that the mainstream Democrats don't. 

I just think they both AOC and her fans have to realize that politics is often like a cornstarch:  a soft touch gets you further than a hard whack.  It's better to help people move in the right direction slowly than to involuntarily aid people to move in the wrong direction quickly.  I honestly believe that nothing in the US stands in the way of progress, not even the severely lopsided political system, if very progressive voters embraced pragmatism without losing their enthusiasm.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on November 08, 2020, 11:03:13 AM
Obama had the birth certificate and "secret Muslim" nonsense going on.

I presume that Biden will have to deal with the "stolen election" stuff during his presidency. Which is even more destructive and will likely have more adherents.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2020, 11:10:22 AM
Why is AOC blamed for "ending the truce" when it was John Kasich the one who made the first shot, blaming them from "almost costing Biden the election"?

QuoteProgressives Outraged as Biden Ally John Kasich Warns Democrats on the Far Left

Progressives in Congress fired back at former Republican Ohio Governor John Kasich on Saturday after the Joe Biden ally issued a warning to Democrats on the far left.

After media outlets projected President Donald Trump's defeat, Kasich—one of the Republicans reportedly being floated as a potential Cabinet choice for Biden's administration—said "the Democrats have to make it clear to the far left that they almost cost him the election."

Just a stunning statement from, again, Biden surrogate John Kasich: "The Democrats have to make it clear to the far-left that they almost cost him this election." https://t.co/Am9lcQ1WSq

— Hanna Trudo (@HCTrudo) November 7, 2020

Members of the so-called "squad" immediately responded to the remark. "Every single swing-seat House Democrat who endorsed #MedicareForAll won re-election or is on track to win re-election. Every. Single.One," Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York tweeted.

Anyone saying this after immigrant organizers delivered AZ, Black grassroots flipped Georgia, MI going blue w reality-bending 94% Detroit margin @RashidaTlaib running up the margins in her district & Trump publicly challenging @IlhanMN in MN and losing isn't a serious person. https://t.co/2FtJzqGki8

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 7, 2020

In another tweet, Ocasio-Cortez quote tweeted Kasich's warning, and asked: "Anyone saying this after immigrant organizers delivered AZ, Black grassroots flipped Georgia, MI going blue w reality-bending 94% Detroit margin + @RashidaTlaib running up the margins in her district & Trump publicly challenging @IlhanMN in MN and losing isn't a serious person."

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota joined Ocasio-Cortez in defending progressives. "And every single swing-seat House Democrat who is a member of the Progressive Caucus won or is on track to win re-election," she tweeted. "Every. Single. One."

And every single swing-seat House Democrat who is a member of the Progressive Caucus won or is on track to win re-election.

Every. Single.  One.  https://t.co/asmBijiXrP

— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) November 7, 2020

Ocasio-Cortez urged Democrats to embrace progressives and activists instead of blaming them.

"One thing I'll say: for the last two years, I and progressive candidates have been unseating powerful Dem incumbents supported by DCCC. Not *once* has anyone in the party asked me what weaknesses I've found in their operation. If they stop blaming progressives, we can help," she wrote. "I saw party consultants take over a Congressional swing campaign operation this year and was it wasn't good."

"The blind impulse to blame activists and the left both demoralizes a key constituency and distracts from asking real Qs & fixing serious operational issues," the lawmaker added.

One thing I'll say: for the last two years, I and progressive candidates have been unseating powerful Dem incumbents supported by DCCC.

Not *once* has anyone in the party asked me what weaknesses I've found in their operation.

If they stop blaming progressives, we can help.

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 7, 2020

Newsweek reached out to Kasich for comment.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 08, 2020, 11:18:20 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2020, 11:10:22 AM
Why is AOC blamed for "ending the truce" when it was John Kasich the one who made the first shot, blaming them from "almost costing Biden the election"?

QuoteProgressives Outraged as Biden Ally John Kasich Warns Democrats on the Far Left

Progressives in Congress fired back at former Republican Ohio Governor John Kasich on Saturday after the Joe Biden ally issued a warning to Democrats on the far left.

After media outlets projected President Donald Trump's defeat, Kasich—one of the Republicans reportedly being floated as a potential Cabinet choice for Biden's administration—said "the Democrats have to make it clear to the far left that they almost cost him the election."

Just a stunning statement from, again, Biden surrogate John Kasich: "The Democrats have to make it clear to the far-left that they almost cost him this election." https://t.co/Am9lcQ1WSq

— Hanna Trudo (@HCTrudo) November 7, 2020

Members of the so-called "squad" immediately responded to the remark. "Every single swing-seat House Democrat who endorsed #MedicareForAll won re-election or is on track to win re-election. Every. Single.One," Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York tweeted.

Anyone saying this after immigrant organizers delivered AZ, Black grassroots flipped Georgia, MI going blue w reality-bending 94% Detroit margin @RashidaTlaib running up the margins in her district & Trump publicly challenging @IlhanMN in MN and losing isn't a serious person. https://t.co/2FtJzqGki8

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 7, 2020

In another tweet, Ocasio-Cortez quote tweeted Kasich's warning, and asked: "Anyone saying this after immigrant organizers delivered AZ, Black grassroots flipped Georgia, MI going blue w reality-bending 94% Detroit margin + @RashidaTlaib running up the margins in her district & Trump publicly challenging @IlhanMN in MN and losing isn't a serious person."

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota joined Ocasio-Cortez in defending progressives. "And every single swing-seat House Democrat who is a member of the Progressive Caucus won or is on track to win re-election," she tweeted. "Every. Single. One."

And every single swing-seat House Democrat who is a member of the Progressive Caucus won or is on track to win re-election.

Every. Single.  One.  https://t.co/asmBijiXrP

— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) November 7, 2020

Ocasio-Cortez urged Democrats to embrace progressives and activists instead of blaming them.

"One thing I'll say: for the last two years, I and progressive candidates have been unseating powerful Dem incumbents supported by DCCC. Not *once* has anyone in the party asked me what weaknesses I've found in their operation. If they stop blaming progressives, we can help," she wrote. "I saw party consultants take over a Congressional swing campaign operation this year and was it wasn't good."

"The blind impulse to blame activists and the left both demoralizes a key constituency and distracts from asking real Qs & fixing serious operational issues," the lawmaker added.

One thing I'll say: for the last two years, I and progressive candidates have been unseating powerful Dem incumbents supported by DCCC.

Not *once* has anyone in the party asked me what weaknesses I've found in their operation.

If they stop blaming progressives, we can help.

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 7, 2020

Newsweek reached out to Kasich for comment.

It seems to me there are two things going on here.

Progressives are beating out moderates within the party. So they point out they have the advantage over moderates. They also point out that they are winning their races.

Moderates are claiming progressives are costing the party, as a whole, against the other party in races where the areas are contentious between the parties.

Both of these things can be true at the same time, though. The end result, assuming they are both true, is a party dominated by progressives that does less well against Republicans overall, because they can't win in contentious areas. The party becomes localized in safe Democrat areas that are very progressive ... but can't command majorities.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 08, 2020, 11:19:13 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.

To be fair, on the right leaders like Trump aren't afraid to put all their points in INT and CHA. That gives them an advantage here.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:23:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 08, 2020, 11:19:13 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.

To be fair, on the right leaders like Trump aren't afraid to put all their points in INT and CHA. That gives them an advantage here.

CHA maybe but INT? the elder Bush maybe but his son, Trump, or Reagan? Come on.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 08, 2020, 11:25:44 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 08, 2020, 11:03:13 AM
Obama had the birth certificate and "secret Muslim" nonsense going on.

I presume that Biden will have to deal with the "stolen election" stuff during his presidency. Which is even more destructive and will likely have more adherents.

I think this is a reason a lot of establishment Republicans are still not openly acknowledging Biden's victory, although there's been a lot of careful messaging and dare I say hedging among Republicans regarding the election results.

They know, and reasonably sensible people around Trump know, and I suspect even Trump himself knows, that they have nothing that will overturn the election in the courts. Everyone knows they are going to lose these extremely dumb and baseless lawsuits. But the base needs to see that they at least tried and that they had their day in court. If the Rs don't at least appear to put up a fight then the base will never forgive them for not fighting the good fight. It's a case of the tail wagging the dog again.

It's absolutely insane than the party itself is scared to death of their own voters but that's where we are.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 08, 2020, 11:30:35 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:23:30 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 08, 2020, 11:19:13 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.

To be fair, on the right leaders like Trump aren't afraid to put all their points in INT and CHA. That gives them an advantage here.

CHA maybe but INT? the elder Bush maybe but his son, Trump, or Reagan? Come on.

Do not question my jokes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2020, 11:32:09 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 10:49:35 AM
BTW, I don't think people like AOC need to be marginalized, I think they're adding a lot of energy to what would otherwise be a geriatric ward.  I also think that they do know something about winning elections that the mainstream Democrats don't. 

I just think they both AOC and her fans have to realize that politics is often like a cornstarch:  a soft touch gets you further than a hard whack.  It's better to help people move in the right direction slowly than to involuntarily aid people to move in the wrong direction quickly.  I honestly believe that nothing in the US stands in the way of progress, not even the severely lopsided political system, if very progressive voters embraced pragmatism without losing their enthusiasm.

All fair points.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on November 08, 2020, 11:38:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.

Yes and no. Yanks correct me if I'm wrong, but during 2017-2018 the Republican party seemed completely uncapable of passing legislation despite dominating all the branches of government (i.e. the attempt to repeal Obamacare via legislation fell flat on its face). So it's not like they are such an homogeneous coordinated front.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: frunk on November 08, 2020, 11:41:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 08, 2020, 11:38:22 AM
Yes and no. Yanks correct me if I'm wrong, but during 2017-2018 the Republican party seemed completely uncapable of passing legislation despite dominating all the branches of government (i.e. the attempt to repeal Obamacare via legislation fell flat on its face). So it's not like they are such an homogeneous coordinated front.

Where they are effective at circling their wagons is when protecting their "tribe".   Democrats tend to throw their members to the wolves as soon as there is anything they don't like.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 08, 2020, 12:14:38 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
I don't think she has a strategy.  She's just pissed off the "establishment" of the party blames her team for not winning more House seats.

Wasn't her "team" like the most successful of the Democratic party in these elections?

I don't think so.  They took no seats away from republicans.  That's the measure of success that matters. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 08, 2020, 12:40:16 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 08, 2020, 11:14:49 AM
I guess this is always going to be disadvantage of the Left. On the Right you have people who get all their submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen. People on the left are much less inclined to do that.

if we look at where the leftist radicals find themselves ideologically I wouldn't be so sure they don't get their "submissive and authoritarian erogenous zones tickled when required to fall in line behind the latest leader chosen".
The only redeeming factor there is that there are so many radical leftist ideological variations at play and that they generally all hate each other's guts, meaning they can't form front.
Which is a bloody good thing given the history of radical leftism.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
You guys do realize that your "leftist radicals" are basically like the centrist social democrats in Europe, right?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2020, 12:43:33 PM
Yeah our Radical Left is Bernie. He just wants to tax the capitalists, not hang them with the rope they sold him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on November 08, 2020, 12:52:19 PM
Will not AOC making a lot of noise help Biden? It underlines just how moderate and centrist he is to have an actual leftist making a splash.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2020, 12:59:40 PM
In any case, it seems to me that all this talk of Dems infighting is wildly blown out of proportion. My impression is that they've actually managed a pretty tight campaign with everyone doing their part and former rivals coming together to help Biden. Now that the campaign has been won it will be a different deal, but so far all the dem "rebels" were actually pretty good team players for Biden.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2020, 01:03:38 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
You guys do realize that your "leftist radicals" are basically like the centrist social democrats in Europe, right?
It is a weird culture war issue. So Kasich complained about the radical left talking about things like "socialism" but said Biden should focus on policy priorities like establishing nationwide broadband and protecting social security :hmm:

Apparently this would help reach out to Republicans :huh:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 08, 2020, 01:06:15 PM
Yeah, the Biden campaign benefited from the fact that the Dems united behind him pretty firmly. It's helpful when everyone more or less actually personally likes the candidate. Bernie and Biden are apparently good friends.

Big contrast from the Hillary campaign, where it always seemed there was lots of sniping back and forth between the progressive wing and the Clinton people, and Bernie really dragging out his endorsement.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 08, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
The above makes me wonder if any other Democratic candidate would have won against Donald, now that the election is more or less behind us and we know what we know.

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth when Biden became the presumptive Dem nominee. A lot of posters here, including myself, were unconvinced by Joe and thought the Dems had better choices.

As it turned out, Joe united the party, returned much of the Midwest to the Dems, and flipped Arizona and Georgia in an election where 71 million Americans voted for Donald Trump! Would any of the other candidates have been able to do that? I don't know.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on November 08, 2020, 01:18:56 PM
I still want to weaken the Presidency.  Trump showed that there's a lot of holes in our laws.  Things that Presidents don't do only because it violated norms rather than the law.  The imperial Presidency needs to die.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 01:20:20 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 08, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
The above makes me wonder if any other Democratic candidate would have won against Donald, now that the election is more or less behind us and we know what we know.

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth when Biden became the presumptive Dem nominee. A lot of posters here, including myself, were unconvinced by Joe and thought the Dems had better choices.

As it turned out, Joe united the party, returned much of the Midwest to the Dems, and flipped Arizona and Georgia in an election where 71 million Americans voted for Donald Trump! Would any of the other candidates have been able to do that? I don't know.
I got a couple of things badly wrong in 2020, and Joe Biden was probably the biggest one.  I really did think for a long time that he was a completely uninspired choice, so uninspired that he could hand Trump a second term due to lack of enthusiasm.  I now think that he was the best candidate Democrats could have, and I think that other candidates may have very well lost us the election.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 08, 2020, 01:53:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2020, 01:03:38 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
You guys do realize that your "leftist radicals" are basically like the centrist social democrats in Europe, right?
It is a weird culture war issue. So Kasich complained about the radical left talking about things like "socialism" but said Biden should focus on policy priorities like establishing nationwide broadband and protecting social security :hmm:

Apparently this would help reach out to Republicans :huh:

I guess the real issue though is whether the policies expressed can win over American voters, who tend to be far more right wing.

Democrats have to win elections in a climate where nearly half the voters were willing to vote for Trump and the current Republican Party. The balance is this:

- push leftish policies to fire up a progressive base and get them to vote;

- but risk firing up the right against you/failing to win over voters in the middle.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: fromtia on November 08, 2020, 02:05:09 PM
I'm very very pleased, like nearly all of you I think , that Biden won the presidency. Trump is booted and the toboggan ride to hell has been stopped for a moment as we have collectively grabbed a passing tree branch and halted.

Biden won a great win, not the nuclear bombardment landslide  that was hinted at, assured even by polling and pundits, but decent enough. Didn't seem to have much of a platform , some "soul of the nation" stuff , pretty meaningless, campaigning seemed to center around watching Trump actually campaign. Might have been the best strategy. I think that Biden is a pretty uninspiring candidate , but I take a great deal of comfort in imagining that people just really, really didn't want Trump to be president.

Not expecting much from his presidency - return to the 2015 status quo, cabinet of business titans and a perhaps a couple of Republicans, absolutely nothing for the progressive wing despite them fighting hard on his behalf. If the people in GA who worked hard to flip it for Biden can do the same thing in January, that would be amazing, if not blocked in the Senate obviously.

Return to default position of the last 70 years on Foreign policy, put some lipstick on the ACA and pretend it's good. No substantive reforms to SC, Healthcare, Police etc. Overturn Trumps executive orders by executive order and return to Obama immigration.

And while Im thrilled, as a non citizen, that Stephen Miller will now not be legislating against me and my family, Im very fearful of the future. If Democrats dont do something, anything, to start addressing or understanding why 70 million people voted for Trump they are going to be boned in 24 and in the future. Start addressing the cares and concerns of working Americans outside wealthy suburbs, in poorer areas, in economically ruined areas and rural areas and do it like it's a fucking emergency, because it is.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 02:32:33 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 12:41:40 PM
You guys do realize that your "leftist radicals" are basically like the centrist social democrats in Europe, right?
Who cares?  Our radical right is basically like the centrists in Saudi Arabia, so what?  The best path towards winning elections in the US in 2020 is to know what is radical and what is mainstream in the US in 2020.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2020, 02:40:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 01:20:20 PM
I got a couple of things badly wrong in 2020, and Joe Biden was probably the biggest one.  I really did think for a long time that he was a completely uninspired choice, so uninspired that he could hand Trump a second term due to lack of enthusiasm.  I now think that he was the best candidate Democrats could have, and I think that other candidates may have very well lost us the election.
Agreed. I've always quite liked Biden but I thought he had weaknesses but he delivered on his promise of winning back the rust-belt states. I still think that Bernie might have been able to do that, but was certainly the only candidate with that priority. And ultimately you can't win the Democratic nomination without strong support in the black community which none of the other candidates had or even feinted at.

I do think the map points to a strategic choice for Democrats and Republicans though. Lot's of possibilities.

QuoteI guess the real issue though is whether the policies expressed can win over American voters, who tend to be far more right wing.
I don't thnk American voters are far to the right of John Kasich.

QuoteDemocrats have to win elections in a climate where nearly half the voters were willing to vote for Trump and the current Republican Party. The balance is this:

- push leftish policies to fire up a progressive base and get them to vote;

- but risk firing up the right against you/failing to win over voters in the middle.
There's always going to be a fight within the Dems. I think both sides are probably, possibly right - it's too soon to tell based on an election day poll givent that we know election day was far more pro-Trump. We need to wait for more detailed analysis of the whole 2020 votes including the overwhelmingly Biden mail-in and early voters.

But without that analysis I think it's probably true that the progressive wing energised their base in swing states (e.g. Ilhan Omar in Minnesota with far better numbers than for Clinton in 2016) which helped win the Presidential election. I also think it's probably true that centrists lost their seats or failed to win seats because they were portrayed as tied to the progressive wing. I think both of those are true and are being amplified in each sides' preferred arena: the progressives in social media, the centrists in the traditional media.

I don't think we'll know until we have the analysis and I think there's always going to be a fight at this stage of a new administration as people are scrapping for power and influence in it. It's frustrating because I actually think both sides need to put that aside (as they did in the 2020 election) and focus on Georgia.

I think it's the internet that's the issue for Democrats. Progressives doing well in progressive areas and pushing for left-wing policies is how the party should work - and they will have valuable lessons on mobilising voters etc. Centrists being able to push their message elsewhere should also work. As it is social media emphasises both sides of the fight and Republicans take advantage (this is like my thought that maybe the issue with Democrat targeting races is that it's the internet/social media campaigns and online donors that are allocating their funds badly, not the party). The left in the US are far more constructive than they are here (except for the DSA types) and the key is how they can all work together and not let each other's messaging get in the way.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: frunk on November 08, 2020, 02:50:31 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 08, 2020, 01:11:23 PM
The above makes me wonder if any other Democratic candidate would have won against Donald, now that the election is more or less behind us and we know what we know.

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth when Biden became the presumptive Dem nominee. A lot of posters here, including myself, were unconvinced by Joe and thought the Dems had better choices.

As it turned out, Joe united the party, returned much of the Midwest to the Dems, and flipped Arizona and Georgia in an election where 71 million Americans voted for Donald Trump! Would any of the other candidates have been able to do that? I don't know.

I still don't think Biden was the best choice, but I am glad he was good enough.

To a large extent I think he won by staying quiet and letting Trump speak for himself.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on November 09, 2020, 01:19:23 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-gsa-letter-biden-transition/2020/11/08/07093acc-21e9-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

QuoteA little-known Trump appointee is in charge of handing transition resources to Biden — and she isn't budging

A Trump administration appointee is refusing to sign a letter allowing President-elect Joe Biden's transition team to formally begin its work this week, in another sign the incumbent president has not acknowledged Biden's victory and could disrupt the transfer of power.

The administrator of the General Services Administration, the low-profile agency in charge of federal buildings, has a little-known role when a new president is elected: to sign paperwork officially turning over millions of dollars, as well as give access to government officials, office space in agencies and equipment authorized for the taxpayer-funded transition teams of the winner.

It amounts to a formal declaration by the federal government, outside of the media, of the winner of the presidential race.

But by Sunday evening, almost 36 hours after media outlets projected Biden as the winner, GSA Administrator Emily Murphy had written no such letter. And the Trump administration, in keeping with the president's failure to concede the election, has no immediate plans to sign one. This could lead to the first transition delay in modern history, except in 2000, when the Supreme Court decided a recount dispute between Al Gore and George W. Bush in December.

"An ascertainment has not yet been made," Pamela Pennington, a spokeswoman for GSA, said in an email, "and its Administrator will continue to abide by, and fulfill, all requirements under the law."

The GSA statement left experts on federal transitions to wonder when the White House expects the handoff from one administration to the next to begin — when the president has exhausted his legal avenues to fight the results, or the formal vote of the electoral college on Dec. 14? There are 74 days, as of Sunday, until the Biden inauguration on Jan. 20.

"No agency head is going to get out in front of the president on transition issues right now," said one senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. The official predicted that agency heads will be told not to talk to the Biden team.

The decision has turned attention to Murphy, whose four-year tenure has been marked by several controversies involving the president, an unusually high profile for an agency little known outside of Washington.

"Her action now has to be condemned," said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.), who leads a House oversight panel on federal operations. "It's behavior that is consistent with her subservience to wishes of the president himself, and it is clearly harmful to the orderly transition of power."

The delay has implications both practical and symbolic.

By declaring the "apparent winner" of a presidential election, the GSA administrator releases computer systems and money for salaries and administrative support for the mammoth undertaking of setting up a new government — $9.9 million this year.

Transition officials get government email addresses. They get office space at every federal agency. They can begin to work with the Office of Government Ethics to process financial disclosure and conflict-of-interest forms for their nominees.

And they get access to senior officials, both political appointees of the outgoing administration and career civil servants, who relay an agency's ongoing priorities and projects, upcoming deadlines, problem areas and risks. The federal government is a $4.5 trillion operation, and while the Biden team is not new to government, the access is critical, experts said.

This is all on hold for now
.

"Now that the election has been independently called for Joe Biden, we look forward to the GSA Administrator quickly ascertaining Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the President-elect and Vice President-elect," a Biden transition spokesman said in an email. "America's national security and economic interests depend on the federal government signaling clearly and swiftly that the United States government will respect the will of the American people and engage in a smooth and peaceful transfer of power."

As the campaign wound down, President Trump gave signals that he would not easily hand over the reins to his successor, if there was one. But for people who have been through them, a presidential transition is a massive undertaking requiring discipline, decision-making and fast learning under the smoothest circumstances. Each lost day puts the new government behind schedule.

"The transition process is fundamental to safely making sure the next team is ready to go on Day One," said Max Stier, president and chief executive of the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service, which has set up a presidential transition center and shares advice with the Biden and Trump teams. "It's critical that you have access to the agencies before you put your people in place."

The Biden team can move forward to get preliminary security clearances and begin FBI background checks on potential nominees requiring Senate confirmation.

Another senior administration official who was not authorized to speak publicly said each agency has drafted detailed transition plans for a new administration, but they will not be released to the Biden team until a winner is formally declared.

Trump has been resistant to participating in a transition — fearing it is a bad omen — but has allowed top aides to participate as long as the efforts do not become public, administration officials said. He is unlikely to concede he has lost or participate in traditional activities, the officials said.

In a call on Friday with administration officials, Mary Gibert, the head of the presidential transition team at the GSA, told colleagues the agency was in a holding pattern and not to host people from Biden teams until there is "ascertainment." She gave no specific timeline on when it was expected.

The delay has already gummed up discussions on critical issues, including plans to distribute a possible coronavirus vaccine, this official said.

GSA has been part of transition planning since the Presidential Transition Act was signed in 1963. Since then, the agency has identified the winner within hours or a day of media projections, and weeks before the results were made official by the electoral college.

Chris Lu, who served as former president Barack Obama's transition director in 2008, recalled that after Obama was declared the winner over the late senator John McCain on Nov. 4, he went to sleep to get up early the next morning to open the transition office. He missed the call from GSA's acting administrator, Jim Williams, informing him that he had signed over transition resources to the Obama team.

"Jim made the call at 1 a.m.," Lu said. "There was simply no controversy involved."

Robert C. MacKichan Jr., an attorney who served as GSA general counsel for presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, said that because Trump is contesting the election and the electors have not yet voted, it's too early for Murphy to make a call. Once the administrator issues the letter, the funds can be spent and can't be recouped.

"I don't think, at this point, I would feel comfortable making that determination now," MacKichan said. "It's premature."

MacKichan said he was confident Murphy would handle a difficult situation fairly. "As an attorney and as a procurement official, I think she has the highest standard of integrity," he said.

Murphy has not sought the limelight during her tenure and was described by former colleagues as a by-the-book person. She's regarded as well-qualified, an expert on contracting with experience both at the agency, where she had previously served as chief acquisition officer, and on Capitol Hill, where she had been a staffer for multiple committees. Heading a federal agency unknown to most Americans seemed like an ideal assignment.

But under Trump, two issues of personal importance to the president became almost constant sources of controversy for her: the lease Trump's company holds with the agency for its D.C. hotel, located in the federally owned Old Post Office Pavilion, and the planned consolidation of the FBI headquarters.

Both projects have pressed Murphy into duty defending the president, and her actions elicited criticism from the agency's watchdog as well as from congressional Democrats.

Trump's hotel lease was signed with the agency before Trump took office, and he resigned his position with the company when he entered office. But he retained ownership of his business, allowing him to profit from the property while in office.

Democrats held repeated hearings to get a better explanation of how the agency decided to allow Trump to keep the lease given that the Constitution bar presidents from accepting gifts or payments from foreign governments, which often patronize the hotel. Under Murphy, the GSA repeatedly declined to provide documents to House Democrats, including the monthly income statements it receives from Trump's company.

Last year, the agency's inspector general determined that GSA "improperly" ignored those concerns in allowing Trump's company to keep the lease. GSA defended itself by saying that the investigation "found no undue influence, pressure or unwarranted involvement of any kind by anyone."

Trump has personally intervened in the most prominent real estate project in the agency's entire portfolio: the plan to build a new FBI headquarters that would allow the bureau out of the crumbling and insecure J. Edgar Hoover Building. During his first year in office, Trump and the GSA abruptly canceled a bipartisan plan to build a new suburban headquarters for the agency, infuriating Democrats who had worked more than a decade on the project and who alleged that Trump canceled the project so a competing hotel could never be built in place of the Hoover building, a site down the street from his hotel. The White House said the president's business had nothing to do with the decision.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Monoriu on November 09, 2020, 04:03:22 AM
If the transition is that important, the process should be stipulated in law. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 09, 2020, 04:20:12 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 07, 2020, 01:02:55 PM
AOC will run against Don Jr. in 2024 and both will cause a split in their respective parties. US will continue with a 4+ party system, joining the civilized world. :P
I could see her primarying Schumer, depending on how things play out.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 09:11:18 AM
I think AOC is still too young in 2024 both in eligibility & actual age. It's only a max of 8 years, ending your 2 terms before you are 50 makes for a very long post-presidency life.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 08, 2020, 01:53:56 PM
I guess the real issue though is whether the policies expressed can win over American voters, who tend to be far more right wing.

Democrats have to win elections in a climate where nearly half the voters were willing to vote for Trump and the current Republican Party. The balance is this:

- push leftish policies to fire up a progressive base and get them to vote;

- but risk firing up the right against you/failing to win over voters in the middle.

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of the country, one that I shared until relatively recently too. America isn't particularly against left economic policy, in fact it probably leans towards it. What America is against is "left cultural" issues, and of course even then I mean more the Republican base, but they represent a lot of the country as proven by last week's election. The biggest lesson, IMO, to draw from Trumpism is for a very significant portion of the electorate cultural issues outweigh anything else. Democrats have largely not spoken to these issues since about 2004, and they haven't spoken to them effectively since before then. Do we need to? Can we? Hard to say, but when people go after AOC on the right it's not actually her socialist economic policies, it is what she represents culturally. The vast, vast majority of this culturally conservative base are low propensity and low information voters, that couldn't discern socialism from liberal market economics if their lives depended on it. These are people who probably support Medicare, Medicaid, probably support Obamacare if you only describe its policy impact and don't use the word Obamacare, probably support higher minimum wages, more rights for unions, more limitations on U.S. corporate behavior etc etc. But to this segment of the population the right has successfully transmogrified the word socialism to mean a cultural left set of ideas that really have nothing to do with what educated people mean when they use the word, but that doesn't matter. We can't "out educate" people, we have to recognize the political reality and respond accordingly.

To a broad swathe of the country you say socialism and they think "my car will be taken away because city dwellers think we should walk and ride buses everywhere", "my Church should have to marry two transgenders because the pastor will be forced to do so", "my daughter will have to go to public restrooms with adult men", "they hate our soldiers", "they hate our country", "they hate people who live outside of the big cities."

The answer to these misguided and malformed views, unfortunately, is not to explain what socialism really is and how they probably approve of it economically. You lack the cultural believability and currency to talk to these people, so they won't even let you (you being the left) past the front door. You're the other. Socialism is the other. It is not an economic philosophy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:10:59 AM
Yes. It's also what makes all this talk of compromise and moderation particularly abhorrent for large swaths of the left, because it's read (rightly) as a compromise over who they *are*, not over what they propose. Be less gay, less black, less urban.

This is why AOC is right: not because her politics are objectively right (even though I tend to agree with them) but because she advocates a campaign of proximity, which incomprehensibly seems utterly foreign to the Democratic establishment. I do think COVID here hurt the Democrats who largely stopped going door to door, while Republicans had no such qualms.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 10:26:14 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 08, 2020, 01:53:56 PM
I guess the real issue though is whether the policies expressed can win over American voters, who tend to be far more right wing.

Democrats have to win elections in a climate where nearly half the voters were willing to vote for Trump and the current Republican Party. The balance is this:

- push leftish policies to fire up a progressive base and get them to vote;

- but risk firing up the right against you/failing to win over voters in the middle.

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of the country, one that I shared until relatively recently too. America isn't particularly against left economic policy, in fact it probably leans towards it. What America is against is "left cultural" issues, and of course even then I mean more the Republican base, but they represent a lot of the country as proven by last week's election. The biggest lesson, IMO, to draw from Trumpism is for a very significant portion of the electorate cultural issues outweigh anything else. Democrats have largely not spoken to these issues since about 2004, and they haven't spoken to them effectively since before then. Do we need to? Can we? Hard to say, but when people go after AOC on the right it's not actually her socialist economic policies, it is what she represents culturally. The vast, vast majority of this culturally conservative base are low propensity and low information voters, that couldn't discern socialism from liberal market economics if their lives depended on it. These are people who probably support Medicare, Medicaid, probably support Obamacare if you only describe its policy impact and don't use the word Obamacare, probably support higher minimum wages, more rights for unions, more limitations on U.S. corporate behavior etc etc. But to this segment of the population the right has successfully transmogrified the word socialism to mean a cultural left set of ideas that really have nothing to do with what educated people mean when they use the word, but that doesn't matter. We can't "out educate" people, we have to recognize the political reality and respond accordingly.

To a broad swathe of the country you say socialism and they think "my car will be taken away because city dwellers think we should walk and ride buses everywhere", "my Church should have to marry two transgenders because the pastor will be forced to do so", "my daughter will have to go to public restrooms with adult men", "they hate our soldiers", "they hate our country", "they hate people who live outside of the big cities."

The answer to these misguided and malformed views, unfortunately, is not to explain what socialism really is and how they probably approve of it economically. You lack the cultural believability and currency to talk to these people, so they won't even let you (you being the left) past the front door. You're the other. Socialism is the other. It is not an economic philosophy.

You have made a case for what the answer is not; what in your opinion is the best course?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:10:59 AM
Yes. It's also what makes all this talk of compromise and moderation particularly abhorrent for large swaths of the left, because it's read (rightly) as a compromise over who they *are*, not over what they propose. Be less gay, less black, less urban.

This is why AOC is right: not because her politics are objectively right (even though I tend to agree with them) but because she advocates a campaign of proximity, which incomprehensibly seems utterly foreign to the Democratic establishment. I do think COVID here hurt the Democrats who largely stopped going door to door, while Republicans had no such qualms.

Whether the talk is abhorrent or not to progressives isn't the primary concern; of course progressives believe that failing to follow progressive policies to the letter is abhorrent - putting everything in moral terms, where progressive policies are moral and those who do not follow them are not, is a basic feature of progressivism.

The real problem is whether or not following progressive policies risks losing elections for the left, hence losing power to the Trumpite right.

I get the point that, for sone progressives, the Democrats gaining power is meaningless if they don't actually enact progressive policies - why bother supporting them, if they are basically indistinguishable from conservatives? Problem is that Trumpite Republicans are not merely conservative - they are, as we have seen, dangerously insane. So keeping them out, even at the expense of electing relatively conservative Democrats, has value.

This is why refusing to "compromise" by progressives risks making the perfect the enemy of the good.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 10:35:20 AM
Uhh, I'm not sure we get a good outcome, I'm in kind of wait and see mode. I am from these people in a sense, the right cultural people. I don't know that there is much reaching these people. The ones I'm thinking of tend to be uneducated and belligerently so, anti-expertise and anti-knowledge. I'm not sure how I'd begin to reach them. I am an educated individual, so is my wife so are my close friends, many whom have similar cultural backgrounds (white people, from religious families etc), but my family also had a bit more money and such and more respect for educational and occupational attainment. Like while I grew up around a lot of cultural conservatives, it was in an environment where people really respected those with more education than them, those with professional degrees and etc, and they genuinely listened to and respected them when they would try to explain things. Today the attitude is more that those people are just elitist cucks who can fuck right off.

I don't know how you penetrate through that. I see a lot of similarities to what's gone on in places like Poland and Hungary, and even to a lesser degree in the United Kingdom with some of the messaging that you saw around Brexit and that wing of British conservatism.

I wish I knew what an answer or a good ending looked like. Maybe for America just our diversity of those age 40 and under and revulsion towards white grievance culture will mean the "good guys" to be simplistic, simply outlast and out breed the bad.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
Whether the talk is abhorrent or not to progressives isn't the primary concern; of course progressives believe that failing to follow progressive policies to the letter is abhorrent - putting everything in moral terms, where progressive policies are moral and those who do not follow them are not, is a basic feature of progressivism.

The real problem is whether or not following progressive policies risks losing elections for the left, hence losing power to the Trumpite right.

Didn't you just read OvB's post? He just explained it very clearly: it's not about policies. It's not about progressives scaring away good moderates. It's about the Other scaring away people who do not like them. It's about identity. How do you compromise on identity? When people are proposing identical policies, and one is termed anti-american and the other one is celebrated, it's difficult to not read it as a rejection of who you are, rather than what you say. And if you can't understand how being told "be a little less black, a little less Mexican, a little less gay" is received poorly, I don't know what to tell you.

I understand you really are committed to the narrative of moderation is the greatest thing ever for a political regime. I sympathize with that, but I think this is the product of the political 90s, when such a stance was possible, because a lot of people more or less agreed on some version of neoliberal order. Or so we thought. But this is no longer the type of climate we are in; and the sort of gentleman's agreement about neoliberalism was shown to have been an agreement of elites. We no longer live in the type of political climate where moderation does the sort of work that you think it does.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 10:54:39 AM
When perfect makes itself the enemy of the good, it implicitly makes itself the ally of the terrible.  I think what progressive fail to understand is that things are going to gradually change for the better just as long as you don't let people get elected who would move things backwards.  I really have no sympathy for the view that it doesn't matter for them whether Democrats or Republicans get elected, and I have a lot of disdain for it given what that attitude accomplishes in practice.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:58:09 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 10:54:39 AM
When perfect makes itself the enemy of the good, it implicitly makes itself the ally of the terrible.  I think what progressive fail to understand is that things are going to gradually change for the better just as long as you don't let people get elected who would move things backwards.  I really have no sympathy for the view that it doesn't matter for them whether Democrats or Republicans get elected, and I have a lot of disdain for it given what that attitude accomplishes in practice.

I don't see how that is responding to what I wrote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on November 09, 2020, 11:00:44 AM
Short of voting reform (HINT HINT) the only way socialists are going to make a break through is if the moderates can cement their hold so much that being crazy just doesn't work for the republicans anymore and they have to fight for the centre (ala Cameron with the Tories).
When the alternative is things going backwards then it makes sense for the Democrats to stick with safe options to secure the sane conservatives.
If the Republicans are angling for sane people though then the way is clear for the Democrats to try something outside the box and try to push forward.

All said though full support for there being socialists within the democrat party. Overton window and highlighting that the moderates are what they are and all that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
Whether the talk is abhorrent or not to progressives isn't the primary concern; of course progressives believe that failing to follow progressive policies to the letter is abhorrent - putting everything in moral terms, where progressive policies are moral and those who do not follow them are not, is a basic feature of progressivism.

The real problem is whether or not following progressive policies risks losing elections for the left, hence losing power to the Trumpite right.

Didn't you just read OvB's post? He just explained it very clearly: it's not about policies. It's not about progressives scaring away good moderates. It's about the Other scaring away people who do not like them. It's about identity. How do you compromise on identity? When people are proposing identical policies, and one is termed anti-american and the other one is celebrated, it's difficult to not read it as a rejection of who you are, rather than what you say. And if you can't understand how being told "be a little less black, a little less Mexican, a little less gay" is received poorly, I don't know what to tell you.

I understand you really are committed to the narrative of moderation is the greatest thing ever for a political regime. I sympathize with that, but I think this is the product of the political 90s, when such a stance was possible, because a lot of people more or less agreed on some version of neoliberal order. Or so we thought. But this is no longer the type of climate we are in; and the sort of gentleman's agreement about neoliberalism was shown to have been an agreement of elites. We no longer live in the type of political climate where moderation does the sort of work that you think it does.

I did read his post. I am not, however, committed to moderation as "the greatest thing ever for a political regime".

What I am committed to, is avoiding disaster. I see Trumpism as the road to disaster for us all. The pandemic has demonstrated that Trumpites have no answers to dealing with problems, other than retreating into fantasy. Should other serious problems arise - and they will - Trumpites will have no answers for them, either. So avoiding that "trumps" (to excuse the expression) following policies I may prefer.

The question is this: can Democrats best win through moderation, or through adopting progressive policies that we know large swaths of the US public have been programmed to hate? If I was convinced the latter was true, I'd agree with you.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 11:14:13 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
I did read his post. I am not, however, committed to moderation as "the greatest thing ever for a political regime".

What I am committed to, is avoiding disaster. I see Trumpism as the road to disaster for us all. The pandemic has demonstrated that Trumpites have no answers to dealing with problems, other than retreating into fantasy. Should other serious problems arise - and they will - Trumpites will have no answers for them, either. So avoiding that "trumps" (to excuse the expression) following policies I may prefer.

The question is this: can Democrats best win through moderation, or through adopting progressive policies that we know large swaths of the US public have been programmed to hate? If I was convinced the latter was true, I'd agree with you.
This is sort of my calculus as well.  There is a huge pressure for society to be more progressive on a lot of things.  That means that the only relevant objective is to minimize the electoral chances of Republicans.  As long as Republicans won't be there to fight the pressure by any means possible, often of dubious democratic legitimacy, progress will find its way through the political process.  The marginal difference between AOC and Joe Machin is an order of magnitude smaller than the marginal difference between Joe Manchin and Susan Collins.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 11:22:40 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
The question is this: can Democrats best win through moderation, or through adopting progressive policies that we know large swaths of the US public have been programmed to hate? If I was convinced the latter was true, I'd agree with you.

I feel I am repeating myself: It's not about policies. Progressive policies have support from much larger swaths of the American public than what was previously thought. To the amazement of people like Krugman. It's about *who* carries those policies. Obamacare, bad. Comprehensive medicare that is essentially obamacare, good.

Thus, if it's about who carries policies, rather than the content of policies - which, as experience has shown, isn't actually how voters form their mind - what does moderation look like? How do you moderate who you are?

If both you and BB were essentially saying the exact same thing, and I just always agreed with him, and never with you (with insults thrown in from time to time for good measure), how would you compromise with me, exactly?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:24:52 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
Whether the talk is abhorrent or not to progressives isn't the primary concern; of course progressives believe that failing to follow progressive policies to the letter is abhorrent - putting everything in moral terms, where progressive policies are moral and those who do not follow them are not, is a basic feature of progressivism.

The real problem is whether or not following progressive policies risks losing elections for the left, hence losing power to the Trumpite right.

Didn't you just read OvB's post? He just explained it very clearly: it's not about policies. It's not about progressives scaring away good moderates. It's about the Other scaring away people who do not like them. It's about identity. How do you compromise on identity? When people are proposing identical policies, and one is termed anti-american and the other one is celebrated, it's difficult to not read it as a rejection of who you are, rather than what you say. And if you can't understand how being told "be a little less black, a little less Mexican, a little less gay" is received poorly, I don't know what to tell you.

I understand you really are committed to the narrative of moderation is the greatest thing ever for a political regime. I sympathize with that, but I think this is the product of the political 90s, when such a stance was possible, because a lot of people more or less agreed on some version of neoliberal order. Or so we thought. But this is no longer the type of climate we are in; and the sort of gentleman's agreement about neoliberalism was shown to have been an agreement of elites. We no longer live in the type of political climate where moderation does the sort of work that you think it does.

I did read his post. I am not, however, committed to moderation as "the greatest thing ever for a political regime".

What I am committed to, is avoiding disaster. I see Trumpism as the road to disaster for us all. The pandemic has demonstrated that Trumpites have no answers to dealing with problems, other than retreating into fantasy. Should other serious problems arise - and they will - Trumpites will have no answers for them, either. So avoiding that "trumps" (to excuse the expression) following policies I may prefer.

The question is this: can Democrats best win through moderation, or through adopting progressive policies that we know large swaths of the US public have been programmed to hate? If I was convinced the latter was true, I'd agree with you.


Great, so Trumpists win either way.  either they win power outright, or they get non Trumpist politicians to govern in a way that won't upset people who might vote for a Trumpist candidate. 

What a perfectly horrible society that would create.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 09, 2020, 11:28:20 AM
Democracy isn't for everyone.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:29:55 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 09, 2020, 11:22:40 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:03:33 AM
The question is this: can Democrats best win through moderation, or through adopting progressive policies that we know large swaths of the US public have been programmed to hate? If I was convinced the latter was true, I'd agree with you.

I feel I am repeating myself: It's not about policies. Progressive policies have support from much larger swaths of the American public than what was previously thought. To the amazement of people like Krugman. It's about *who* carries those policies. Obamacare, bad. Comprehensive medicare that is essentially obamacare, good.

Thus, if it's about who carries policies, rather than the content of policies - which, as experience has shown, isn't actually how voters form their mind - what does moderation look like? How do you moderate who you are?

If both you and BB were essentially saying the exact same thing, and I just always agreed with him, and never with you (with insults thrown in from time to time for good measure), how would you compromise with me, exactly?

If it is all about identity, and nothing else, then the US would indeed be doomed, as the majority would always win, and Trumpites have a lock on the majority's identity politics.

However, it would appear that this thesis is simply not true - yes, for many on the right as on the left, identity politics trump everything - but not for all. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain how Trump lost.

What progressives must grapple with is that if their own theory is correct - that identity is all - they will always lose. Because the US remains a nation where the majority identifies as Christian, White, and heterosexual.



Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:32:23 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 09, 2020, 11:28:20 AM
Democracy isn't for everyone.

Only if one accept Malthus' premise.   However, if it is for everyone then political leaders should act that way.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:34:29 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:24:52 AM


Great, so Trumpists win either way.  either they win power outright, or they get non Trumpist politicians to govern in a way that won't upset people who might vote for a Trumpist candidate. 

What a perfectly horrible society that would create.

Point is to find a compromise that garners enough votes to win elections. Please note that this does not mean doing everything Trumpites want. No doubt there are many Trumpites who will refuse to accept anything other that everything they want. You will never reason with them, but you also don't need 100% of votes to win elections. You just need a majority.

One again we see how, for progressives, the perfect is insisted upon (and so becomes the enemy of the good).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 09, 2020, 11:36:20 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:32:23 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 09, 2020, 11:28:20 AM
Democracy isn't for everyone.

Only if one accept Malthus' premise.   However, if it is for everyone then political leaders should act that way.

I have no idea what you are talking about.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: fromtia on November 09, 2020, 11:37:31 AM
I'll agree with OVB here and I think his recent posts on the subject have been on point. I don't think leftish economic policies are hated by the US electorate, they are hated by the Republican donors and pundits. I think they are fairly popular with Americans around the country and some of the ballot propositions that have been voted for overwhelmingly seem to attest to that. A minimum wage in crazy red state Florida? What?

I do think Wokism is hated though, I mean I'm pretty left wing and I absolutely hate the "Woke" left and all of the bizarre posturing and maoist cultural revolution LARPing. But talking about "the left"* as if it is solely represented by the Wokesters isn't accurate, I don't think.

Reaching out to working people around the country with determined campaigning, grassroots organizing, and a soft left economic policy platform and focus on peoples material concerns in poor and rural areas would be a good place to start I think. I understand that the conventional wisdom is anything other than kneeling in Kente cloth or a policy that has something to do with vouchers and a website where you can learn to code is the preferred method, some telegenic faux blue collar identity (Scrappy Scranton Joe!) and so on, but I think a change of tack is urgently needed.

The Republican party has the ear of working people , it speaks to them. We understand that it doesn't actually help them , far from it, but Republicans wouldn't need to modulate on policy much to completely thrash the Dems - I think some hints of that with Latino votes in Texas for example.


* I well understand the Languish tradition of defining "the left" as everything you hate , or just whatever you say it is in general.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2020, 11:39:01 AM
I think if the left can find a way to bribe the lower classes into putting up with their cultural policies, like they did in decades previous, they will be fine.

It's totally messed up that the healthcare system is a red line (haha) for a lot of people over there, as that'd be the most obvious start in building a non-terrible society for the disenfranchised. But perhaps silly subsidies for industries and such could work. On the plus side some of the GOP-leaning rich folk could be convinced to join in on looting most of the budget spent on this via getting grants to build and maintain unproductive factories etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:39:11 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:34:29 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:24:52 AM


Great, so Trumpists win either way.  either they win power outright, or they get non Trumpist politicians to govern in a way that won't upset people who might vote for a Trumpist candidate. 

What a perfectly horrible society that would create.

Point is to find a compromise that garners enough votes to win elections. Please note that this does not mean doing everything Trumpites want. No doubt there are many Trumpites who will refuse to accept anything other that everything they want. You will never reason with them, but you also don't need 100% of votes to win elections. You just need a majority.

One again we see how, for progressives, the perfect is insisted upon (and so becomes the enemy of the good).

We are always hearing about Democrats having to compromise.  What about Republicans.  What if the narrative became one of the Democrats turning out more people who normally don't vote because they have policies that are not restricted by worrying about pissing off the people who might vote Republican. 

What if the Republicans realized they had to start building a bigger tent.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:47:48 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:39:11 AM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:34:29 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 11:24:52 AM


Great, so Trumpists win either way.  either they win power outright, or they get non Trumpist politicians to govern in a way that won't upset people who might vote for a Trumpist candidate. 

What a perfectly horrible society that would create.

Point is to find a compromise that garners enough votes to win elections. Please note that this does not mean doing everything Trumpites want. No doubt there are many Trumpites who will refuse to accept anything other that everything they want. You will never reason with them, but you also don't need 100% of votes to win elections. You just need a majority.

One again we see how, for progressives, the perfect is insisted upon (and so becomes the enemy of the good).

We are always hearing about Democrats having to compromise.  What about Republicans.  What if the narrative became one of the Democrats turning out more people who normally don't vote because they have policies that are not restricted by worrying about pissing off the people who might vote Republican. 

What if the Republicans realized they had to start building a bigger tent.

The Republicans have found a strategy they think wins elections - just lie about everything, spread fear, use white, Christian and hetero identity politics. Unfortunately the left can't win using the same strategy only on reverse - as I've noted, in a straight contest between White and non-White, Christian and non-Christian, hetero and non-hetero, the former wins every time because they are in the majority in the US and likely to remain that way.

If the Republicans embraced compromise, building a bigger tent, ditched the divisive  identity politics, stopped the lying and fearmongering, in short became a boring ordinary right-leaning political party ... that would be awesome. In a perfect world, that's what I'd want to see happening.

Unfortunately it seems unlikely, as the Republicans are in a cancerous state. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:00:23 PM
Nate Silver predicts that this noncharismatic 80 year old Biden will reach 80 million votes. While barely campaigning, during a pandemic, with all the attempts from the GOP at voter suppression.

The answer is not to try and reach the Trumpers. They are impervious to facts and policy. The answer is to turn out your voters and start building an organization that can win local races at every level.

The Obama-Trump voter exists, but if they haven't gone back to Biden after 4 years of Trump, there's no reaching those. Either they're too low-information to reach or they've drank the kool-aid and are now Q-anon retards.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
White Christians make up less than 50% of the US population - its somewhere in the low 40s.  The return of white identity politics is not a confident assertion of a majority population, it is a backlash from a group that sees itself in danger and under siege.  That is why it is so tough to root out and so dangerous.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 12:07:28 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:00:23 PM
Nate Silver predicts that this noncharismatic 80 year old Biden will reach 80 million votes. While barely campaigning, during a pandemic, with all the attempts from the GOP at voter suppression.
You make it sound like this is the worst-case outcome.  There are a lot of reasons to think that this was actually the best case outcome.  One of the obvious reasons is that Biden won when his party itself seems to have lost.
QuoteThe answer is not to try and reach the Trumpers. They are impervious to facts and policy. The answer is to turn out your voters and start building an organization that can win local races at every level.
The answer is to not push people towards Trump.  You can judge people all they want for voting for Trump while not being a terminal imbecile, but their vote counts just the same.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on November 09, 2020, 12:11:48 PM
The answer is to nuke from orbit and start over in a million years.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 12:07:28 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:00:23 PM
Nate Silver predicts that this noncharismatic 80 year old Biden will reach 80 million votes. While barely campaigning, during a pandemic, with all the attempts from the GOP at voter suppression.
You make it sound like this is the worst-case outcome.  There are a lot of reasons to think that this was actually the best case outcome.  One of the obvious reasons is that Biden won when his party itself seems to have lost.
QuoteThe answer is not to try and reach the Trumpers. They are impervious to facts and policy. The answer is to turn out your voters and start building an organization that can win local races at every level.
The answer is to not push people towards Trump.  You can judge people all they want for voting for Trump while not being a terminal imbecile, but their vote counts just the same.

Who pushed people to vote for Trump exactly? How does that even work?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 12:13:01 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.
Is there any evidence supporting this theory at all?  I get the impression that people talk about "economic insecurity" as the cause of Trumpism because there is no way to discuss racism productively.  Unfortunately bad diagnosis rarely leads to good treatment.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 12:13:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
White Christians make up less than 50% of the US population - its somewhere in the low 40s.  The return of white identity politics is not a confident assertion of a majority population, it is a backlash from a group that sees itself in danger and under siege.  That is why it is so tough to root out and so dangerous.

True - those who identify as White and Christian make up less than half the population. The problem with identity politics, though, is that not only those who fall into both categories at the same time can join - those who identify as White or Christian make up more than 50%.

By appealing to that, Trumpites can win. People who are not White can be persuaded to vote for them because of "Christian" issues (think of abortion). That's how you get sone Blacks and Hispanics voting Trump against their best interests. People who are White but not Christian can be persuaded to vote for them "because White lives matter".

Throw heterosexuality into the identity politics mix, it becomes even more one sided.

Also - it is one of the fundamental tricks of this sort of right wing populism to convince their audience that they are under siege, wherever it is true or not.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
Who pushed people to vote for Trump exactly? How does that even work?
Asked and answered gazillion times by now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 12:14:10 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2020, 12:04:50 PM
White Christians make up less than 50% of the US population - its somewhere in the low 40s.  The return of white identity politics is not a confident assertion of a majority population, it is a backlash from a group that sees itself in danger and under siege.  That is why it is so tough to root out and so dangerous.

Right, I mean this is not likely a winning thing for Republicans long term, which is why I mentioned outbreeding and outliving them. Which is more or less what is happening. It does look like the GOP is trying to takes its unvarnished message and expand it to culturally conservative black men and Hispanics, and got a little (tiny) bit of play with the former and a bit more play with the latter in 2020. But I am skeptical they can meaningfully widen the coalition without changing the core message at all.

That's why I go back to not really knowing that I have any magic answers here. The Dems can't get in bed with angry white racial grievance, that's not viable for a number of reasons. Oddly enough the suggestion by AOC to do "Deep Canvassing" may be one way that works, but that's incredibly labor intensive and only reaches smallish numbers of people.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 12:18:42 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.

Rural areas are fucked. You don't need many people to work on farms, and whatever low cost manufacturing used to be available has generally evaporated.

No one is going to fix rural income insecurity because the immediate future is with urbanization.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
About 1/3 of GOP voters have a college degree, which is more than in 1996 when Bob Dole ran.  10% of GOP voters have post-college university education (same as in 96 and compared to 15% nationally now).  Trump actually increased his vote share among high income (100k+) voters compared to 2016 and got a majority of that vote.

Trump got 70+ million to vote for him because he attracted a broad coalition of very different kinds of people.  Not just evangelicals, "very fine people" and trailer park denizens, but also small business owners, sunbelt professionals, and a good chunks of Latino men enticed by his fake tough guy image and appeal to traditional values.  Some of those people are true believer Qanon suckers impervious to reason, some are not.  There are plenty of people out there who had considerable recognition of Trump's many faults and voted for him anyways
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:19:46 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 09, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2020, 12:12:19 PM
Who pushed people to vote for Trump exactly? How does that even work?
Asked and answered gazillion times by now.

Sure, whatever. You do you, believe what you will.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 12:19:53 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:47:48 AM
The Republicans have found a strategy they think wins elections - just lie about everything, spread fear, use white, Christian and hetero identity politics. Unfortunately the left can't win using the same strategy only on reverse - as I've noted, in a straight contest between White and non-White, Christian and non-Christian, hetero and non-hetero, the former wins every time because they are in the majority in the US and likely to remain that way.

If the Republicans embraced compromise, building a bigger tent, ditched the divisive  identity politics, stopped the lying and fearmongering, in short became a boring ordinary right-leaning political party ... that would be awesome. In a perfect world, that's what I'd want to see happening.

Unfortunately it seems unlikely, as the Republicans are in a cancerous state.

I would not say unfortunately when describing the fact the Dems can't use the same tactics.  Why would they want to be Republican light?  I would say, very fortunately, the left will use a strategy that will not cater to the same smaller group of Republican voters.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2020, 12:40:51 PM
For what it's worth I think AOC makes some good points about organising and campaigning here which I feel are very valid. It almost feels like the talk about how progressives messaging cost votes is distracting from talking about the substance here:
QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Biden's Win, House Losses, and What's Next for the Left
The congresswoman said Joe Biden's relationship with progressives would hinge on his actions. And she dismissed criticism from House moderates, calling some candidates who lost their races "sitting ducks."
By Astead W. Herndon
Nov. 7, 2020

For months, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been a good soldier for the Democratic Party and Joseph R. Biden Jr. as he sought to defeat President Trump.

But on Saturday, in a nearly hourlong interview shortly after President-elect Biden was declared the winner, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez made clear the divisions within the party that animated the primary still exist. And she dismissed recent criticisms from some Democratic House members who have blamed the party's left for costing them important seats. Some of the members who lost, she said, had made themselves "sitting ducks."

These are edited excerpts from the conversation.

We finally have a fuller understanding of the results. What's your macro takeaway?

Well, I think the central one is that we aren't in a free fall to hell anymore. But whether we're going to pick ourselves up or not is the lingering question. We paused this precipitous descent. And the question is if and how we will build ourselves back up.

We know that race is a problem, and avoiding it is not going to solve any electoral issues. We have to actively disarm the potent influence of racism at the polls.

But we also learned that progressive policies do not hurt candidates. Every single candidate that co-sponsored Medicare for All in a swing district kept their seat. We also know that co-sponsoring the Green New Deal was not a sinker. Mike Levin was an original co-sponsor of the legislation, and he kept his seat.

To your first point, Democrats lost seats in an election where they were expected to gain them. Is that what you are ascribing to racism and white supremacy at the polls?

I think it's going to be really important how the party deals with this internally, and whether the party is going to be honest about doing a real post-mortem and actually digging into why they lost. Because before we even had any data yet in a lot of these races, there was already finger-pointing that this was progressives' fault and that this was the fault of the Movement for Black Lives.

I've already started looking into the actual functioning of these campaigns. And the thing is, I've been unseating Democrats for two years. I have been defeating Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-run campaigns for two years. That's how I got to Congress. That's how we elected Ayanna Pressley. That's how Jamaal Bowman won. That's how Cori Bush won. And so we know about extreme vulnerabilities in how Democrats run campaigns.


Some of this is criminal. It's malpractice. Conor Lamb spent $2,000 on Facebook the week before the election. I don't think anybody who is not on the internet in a real way in the Year of our Lord 2020 and loses an election can blame anyone else when you're not even really on the internet.

And I've looked through a lot of these campaigns that lost, and the fact of the matter is if you're not spending $200,000 on Facebook with fund-raising, persuasion, volunteer recruitment, get-out-the-vote the week before the election, you are not firing on all cylinders. And not a single one of these campaigns were firing on all cylinders.


Well, Conor Lamb did win. So what are you saying: Investment in digital advertising and canvassing are a greater reason moderate Democrats lost than any progressive policy?

These folks are pointing toward Republican messaging that they feel killed them, right? But why were you so vulnerable to that attack?

If you're not door-knocking, if you're not on the internet, if your main points of reliance are TV and mail, then you're not running a campaign on all cylinders. I just don't see how anyone could be making ideological claims when they didn't run a full-fledged campaign.

Our party isn't even online, not in a real way that exhibits competence. And so, yeah, they were vulnerable to these messages, because they weren't even on the mediums where these messages were most potent. Sure, you can point to the message, but they were also sitting ducks. They were sitting ducks.

There's a reason Barack Obama built an entire national campaign apparatus outside of the Democratic National Committee. And there's a reason that when he didn't activate or continue that, we lost House majorities. Because the party — in and of itself — does not have the core competencies, and no amount of money is going to fix that.


If I lost my election, and I went out and I said: "This is moderates' fault. This is because you didn't let us have a floor vote on Medicare for all." And they opened the hood on my campaign, and they found that I only spent $5,000 on TV ads the week before the election? They would laugh. And that's what they look like right now trying to blame the Movement for Black Lives for their loss.

Is there anything from Tuesday that surprised you? Or made you rethink your previously held views?

The share of white support for Trump. I thought the polling was off, but just seeing it, there was that feeling of realizing what work we have to do.

We need to do a lot of anti-racist, deep canvassing in this country. Because if we keep losing white shares and just allowing Facebook to radicalize more and more elements of white voters and the white electorate, there's no amount of people of color and young people that you can turn out to offset that.

But the problem is that right now, I think a lot of Dem strategy is to avoid actually working through this. Just trying to avoid poking the bear. That's their argument with defunding police, right? To not agitate racial resentment. I don't think that is sustainable.

There's a lot of magical thinking in Washington, that this is just about special people that kind of come down from on high. Year after year, we decline the idea that they did work and ran sophisticated operations in favor of the idea that they are magical, special people. I need people to take these goggles off and realize how we can do things better.

If you are the D.C.C.C., and you're hemorrhaging incumbent candidates to progressive insurgents, you would think that you may want to use some of those firms. But instead, we banned them. So the D.C.C.C. banned every single firm that is the best in the country at digital organizing.


The leadership and elements of the party — frankly, people in some of the most important decision-making positions in the party — are becoming so blinded to this anti-activist sentiment that they are blinding themselves to the very assets that they offer.

I've been begging the party to let me help them for two years. That's also the damn thing of it. I've been trying to help. Before the election, I offered to help every single swing district Democrat with their operation. And every single one of them, but five, refused my help. And all five of the vulnerable or swing district people that I helped secured victory or are on a path to secure victory. And every single one that rejected my help is losing. And now they're blaming us for their loss.

So I need my colleagues to understand that we are not the enemy. And that their base is not the enemy. That the Movement for Black Lives is not the enemy, that Medicare for all is not the enemy. This isn't even just about winning an argument. It's that if they keep going after the wrong thing, I mean, they're just setting up their own obsolescence.


What is your expectation as to how open the Biden administration will be to the left? And what is the strategy in terms of moving it?

I don't know how open they'll be. And it's not a personal thing. It's just, the history of the party tends to be that we get really excited about the grass roots to get elected. And then those communities are promptly abandoned right after an election.

I think the transition period is going to indicate whether the administration is taking a more open and collaborative approach, or whether they're taking a kind of icing-out approach. Because Obama's transition set a trajectory for 2010 and some of our House losses. It was a lot of those transition decisions — and who was put in positions of leadership — that really informed, unsurprisingly, the strategy of governance.

What if the administration is hostile? If they take the John Kasich view of who Joe Biden should be? What do you do?

Well, I'd be bummed, because we're going to lose. And that's just what it is. These transition appointments, they send a signal. They tell a story of who the administration credits with this victory. And so it's going be really hard after immigrant youth activists helped potentially deliver Arizona and Nevada. It's going to be really hard after Detroit and Rashida Tlaib ran up the numbers in her district.

It's really hard for us to turn out nonvoters when they feel like nothing changes for them. When they feel like people don't see them, or even acknowledge their turnout.

If the party believes after 94 percent of Detroit went to Biden, after Black organizers just doubled and tripled turnout down in Georgia, after so many people organized Philadelphia, the signal from the Democratic Party is the John Kasichs won us this election? I mean, I can't even describe how dangerous that is.

You are diagnosing national trends. You're maybe the most famous voice on the left currently. What can we expect from you in the next four years?

I don't know. I think I'll have probably more answers as we get through transition, and to the next term. How the party responds will very much inform my approach and what I think is going to be necessary.

The last two years have been pretty hostile. Externally, we've been winning. Externally, there's been a ton of support, but internally, it's been extremely hostile to anything that even smells progressive.

Is the party ready to, like, sit down and work together and figure out how we're going to use the assets from everyone at the party? Or are they going to just kind of double down on this smothering approach? And that's going to inform what I do.

Is there a universe in which they're hostile enough that we're talking about a Senate run in a couple years?

I genuinely don't know. I don't even know if I want to be in politics. You know, for real, in the first six months of my term, I didn't even know if I was going to run for re-election this year.

Really? Why?

It's the incoming. It's the stress. It's the violence. It's the lack of support from your own party. It's your own party thinking you're the enemy. When your own colleagues talk anonymously in the press and then turn around and say you're bad because you actually append your name to your opinion.

I chose to run for re-election because I felt like I had to prove that this is real. That this movement was real. That I wasn't a fluke. That people really want guaranteed health care and that people really want the Democratic Party to fight for them.

But I'm serious when I tell people the odds of me running for higher office and the odds of me just going off trying to start a homestead somewhere — they're probably the same.

Astead W. Herndon is a national political reporter based in New York. He was previously a Washington-based political reporter and a City Hall reporter for The Boston Globe. @AsteadWesley
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on November 09, 2020, 12:55:38 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 12:19:53 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:47:48 AM
The Republicans have found a strategy they think wins elections - just lie about everything, spread fear, use white, Christian and hetero identity politics. Unfortunately the left can't win using the same strategy only on reverse - as I've noted, in a straight contest between White and non-White, Christian and non-Christian, hetero and non-hetero, the former wins every time because they are in the majority in the US and likely to remain that way.

If the Republicans embraced compromise, building a bigger tent, ditched the divisive  identity politics, stopped the lying and fearmongering, in short became a boring ordinary right-leaning political party ... that would be awesome. In a perfect world, that's what I'd want to see happening.

Unfortunately it seems unlikely, as the Republicans are in a cancerous state.

I would not say unfortunately when describing the fact the Dems can't use the same tactics.  Why would they want to be Republican light?  I would say, very fortunately, the left will use a strategy that will not cater to the same smaller group of Republican voters.

I guess it depends whether we are talking about winning or what they do when they get there.
If somebody lies and cheats and indulges in all manner of nonsense to get into power but then turns out to actually be a lovely guy who helps the needy, sets the economy on a positive tack, etc... Then that is somewhat forgivable....
Which is the same attitude a lot have to trump et al. Only theyre being tricked about good things happening once they get into power.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2020, 01:08:43 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 11:47:48 AM
The Republicans have found a strategy they think wins elections - just lie about everything, spread fear, use white, Christian and hetero identity politics. Unfortunately the left can't win using the same strategy only on reverse - as I've noted, in a straight contest between White and non-White, Christian and non-Christian, hetero and non-hetero, the former wins every time because they are in the majority in the US and likely to remain that way.
The massive caveat all of this conversation needs is that we don't have much information about the voters at this stage. We have exit polls - in a year when polling companies got things wrong (especially at state levels) - of election day voters when we know a huge chunk of the electorate voted early or mail-in and we also know there was a partisan split beteween those groups. I don't think we're in a position yet to reach conclusions.

Which is partly why everyone I see in the media is regurgitating their opinion piece "The main lesson from the US election is that, once again, I am right".

The only point I'd make on this (and I've always thought all politics is identity politics and literally no-one cares about policies so I am an extremist on this :P) is that you're limiting identity too much to the obvious categories. So what you're saying works if everyone equally values their white, Christian, heterosexual identity - but we know they don't. They also value education, status, cultural signifiers, class as other identities, for example. Not all people assign the same value to the different bits of themselves/their identity and how they weight that possibly matters more. In the UK class used to be the biggest predictor of how someone votes, it's now education. There is a possibility that something similar is happening in the US (it's too soon to tell given the information we have) but in 2018 there was a big swing of college educated white people to Democrats and that seems to have largely held up. So for some white, Christian, straight people that's the bit of their identity that has valence not the other stuff.

QuoteYou make it sound like this is the worst-case outcome.  There are a lot of reasons to think that this was actually the best case outcome.  One of the obvious reasons is that Biden won when his party itself seems to have lost.
I really wonder about the impact of not doing any on the ground campaigning for down-ballot races. I can see a Presidential campaign being 90% air war and working, I'm not sure that the other races don't need door-knocking, canvassing, traditional GOTV (all of which can be done safely).

The other big point on this is I wonder if this changes the GOP. They've had a high turnout election but run ahead of the President. And I wonder if they move from thinking they can only govern as a minority to actually thinking they could win votes in a high turnout election and that turnout isn't necessarily bad for them.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 01:11:46 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
About 1/3 of GOP voters have a college degree, which is more than in 1996 when Bob Dole ran.  10% of GOP voters have post-college university education (same as in 96 and compared to 15% nationally now).  Trump actually increased his vote share among high income (100k+) voters compared to 2016 and got a majority of that vote.

Trump got 70+ million to vote for him because he attracted a broad coalition of very different kinds of people.  Not just evangelicals, "very fine people" and trailer park denizens, but also small business owners, sunbelt professionals, and a good chunks of Latino men enticed by his fake tough guy image and appeal to traditional values.  Some of those people are true believer Qanon suckers impervious to reason, some are not.  There are plenty of people out there who had considerable recognition of Trump's many faults and voted for him anyways

I'm holding off on analyzing any of that until we have better data, exit polling this year is particularly unrepresentative of who actually voted, and I'd avoid using it to make points. Also, cultural conservatism isn't limited to poor people, Like I myself said I come from cultural conservatives who didn't fit that mold. But I do think it's more commonly seen among the white working class than it is among the upper middle class suburban whites.

I also think it's worth noting that it probably doesn't apply as much to the actual white poor--who have cultural associations not easily generalized about, but by and large the true poor do not vote, which is something easy to forget. Most of the true white poor don't vote at all, and probably never will. We're usually talking about the lower income bands of the middle class when we generalize about the white working class.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 01:16:46 PM
Right, so I'm not putting a ton of stock in exit polls and am putting stock into county level data. I have a reasonably good chance of knowing what the demographics of a county are and a reasonably good chance to draw conclusions from them. Throughout the Midwest aside from Pennsylvania, Biden actually didn't substantially outperform Hillary. In some cases he did worse (like in eastern Ohio.) Why Pennsylvania doesn't tell the same tale is probably interesting and worth investigating. But it's on the basis of his performance in these counties that I'm making the claim the drew even more white working class to the polls than ever before.

His much diminished performance in suburban Georgia and Pennsylvania, as well as several other suburbs, is why I know he lost even more suburban vote. I haven't looked at the full Texas data--but it is worth noting he did worse among Texas suburban county voters than he did in 2016 but he did better than Cruz did when Beto ran against Cruz in 2018, which is probably also food for thought.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 01:24:18 PM
Beto ran a much better campaign then the Democrats did in 2020. And Cruz is disliked by Trump supporters which hurt his cause in 2018.

This whole "Texas tough! I like trucks and shit" thing the Democratic strategists have tried to do in Texas forever just falls flat. Your voters here are immigrants and urban and suburban dwellers not 1920s ranchers. Beto had messaging actually designed to work for 21st century likely Democratic voters.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2020, 01:24:55 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 01:16:46 PM
Right, so I'm not putting a ton of stock in exit polls and am putting stock into county level data. I have a reasonably good chance of knowing what the demographics of a county are and a reasonably good chance to draw conclusions from them. Throughout the Midwest aside from Pennsylvania, Biden actually didn't substantially outperform Hillary. In some cases he did worse (like in eastern Ohio.) Why Pennsylvania doesn't tell the same tale is probably interesting and worth investigating. But it's on the basis of his performance in these counties that I'm making the claim the drew even more white working class to the polls than ever before.
On this, looking at that NYT map is fascinating - the swing in eastern Ohio just stops at the state border with Pennsylvania. No idea why, it's really interesting.

This is part of the reason why I think US news organisations maybe have too many data reporters (again I do not see the news value of building a model to predict the outcome) and could do with more actual reporters.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2020, 01:29:08 PM
Some interesting counties:

Trumbull County, OH (rural, white):

2016 Trump = 51.1% 49,024 votes
2016 HRC = 44.8% 43,014 votes

2020 Trump = 54.5% 53,756
2020 Biden = 44.1% 43,534

Biden didn't lose votes here--Trump gained new voters.

Cuyahoga County, OH (Cleveland, black inner city, white suburbs):

2016 Trump = 30.6% 184,211
2016 HRC = 66.1% 398,271

2020 Trump = 32.3% 195,089
2020 Biden = 66.6% 402,315

They both gained, but Trump gained quite a bit more.

Franklin County, OH (Columbus, more diverse and higher education than Cleveland)

2016 Trump = 34.5% 199,331
2016 HRC = 60.7% 351,198

2020 Trump = 33.6% 203,154
2020 Biden = 64.8% 391,584

Biden gained 40,000 votes, Trump gained a few thousand. I'm looking at a lot of counties and this is a very small number, but it's very interesting to me to see the differences between Columbus OH and Cleveland OH. Cleveland proper has a lot in common with Detroit and Baltimore, typical northern industrial cities with high black populations. The suburbs of Cleveland are also much more white working class, these are "white industrial suburbs", small ring towns that used to have factory industries of their own. Biden about held his own here, but Trump did a good bit better.

Columbus is a very different city. In the 1980s it had something like 250,000 people now it has almost 900,000. It was never an industrial hotbed, it was the centrally located state capitol and location of the state's big land grant college. In the latter half of the 20th century and first 20 years of the 21st, Columbus has grown almost exclusively due to white collar jobs. There's a fusion effect of having state government + education in the same place. Huntington National Bank (a regional bank w/15,000 employees) is headquartered here, Nationwide Mutual a national insurance concern with 30,000 employees is headquartered here, J.P. Morgan Chase built their national IT services campus in the suburbs of Columbus in a sprawling campus that employs some 15,000+ people.  In the Northwest suburbs is where Cardinal Health, the 14th highest revenue generating company in the United States with 50,000 employees is headquartered, American Electric Power (one of the largest utilities in the U.S.) has its corporate headquarters in Columbus. Wendy's has its corporate headquarters in the northwest suburbs.

What all of these jobs have in common is these are jobs for educated people, these are not blue collar jobs. Columbus is a city that is rapidly growing as a result of 21st century jobs and its population looks like it--and Joe Biden gained 40,000 votes over Hillary Clinton there, and despite his big turnout over 2016, Trump barely gained any votes there.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PJL on November 09, 2020, 01:52:06 PM
It's not surprising to see old industrialised areas become more right-wing as time goes on. After all, they're going that way because of the 'old', much like the old peasantry in low industrialised countries were compared to the new industries. And like the peasantry in the countryside, a lack of opportunities in these left-behind towns causes their areas to progress slower and they become relatively more conservative compared to the norm.

But these voters do vote in their best interest. All voters do. People who say otherwise are really saying they're stupid but in a 'nicer' way. What the issue is, is that these voters are willing to forgo economic prosperity in return for more security/control.  But measuring security is harder to achieve than calculating economic propensity. Sure you have crime figures etc, but that's just part of the picture. Security is more of an emotional state than prosperity. So Democrats (and the left in general) need to appeal to their emotions to convince them to vote for them. It's why Brexiteers managed to win the 2016 EU referendum, despite all the economic doom & gloom of leaving from the other side. Tony Blair understood this, which is why New Labour was keen to make sure they were good at security & law & order. Even Iraq helped in a way, as it bolstered their patriotic credentials, though that was evident even when they came to power and the years preceding.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PJL on November 09, 2020, 02:02:07 PM
I also think people are focusing too narrowly on the pure political angle (left / right), and need to broaden it to the wider societal / cultural angle. There's a perception that Hollywood is a cultural liberal centre, which has been around for 20-30 years. But more interestingly has been how progressive corporations have become in recent years, or at least perceived to be. Normally they have historically been more conservative in their approach, but social media has made them more culturally progressive, for fear of bad press. As a result, they may have been a backlash against the progressive values, but one which has been projected through elections, rather than actual protests (other than the usual extremists). In a way, this has provided the necessary checks and balances to keep things level, at least to those who have felt being left behind.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 09, 2020, 02:32:48 PM
Quote from: PJL on November 09, 2020, 02:02:07 PM
I also think people are focusing too narrowly on the pure political angle (left / right), and need to broaden it to the wider societal / cultural angle. There's a perception that Hollywood is a cultural liberal centre, which has been around for 20-30 years. But more interestingly has been how progressive corporations have become in recent years, or at least perceived to be. Normally they have historically been more conservative in their approach, but social media has made them more culturally progressive, for fear of bad press. As a result, they may have been a backlash against the progressive values, but one which has been projected through elections, rather than actual protests (other than the usual extremists). In a way, this has provided the necessary checks and balances to keep things level, at least to those who have felt being left behind.

That is a great point.  I have noticed a dramatic shift in corporate leadership over the last decade or so.  Corporate leadership is a lot more interested in exceeding legal requirements so that they can be perceived as being more culturally in tune.  I don't know for sure but I think they want to keep in touch with the values of the 20 somethings, which is very different from your typical Republican voter.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on November 09, 2020, 04:52:15 PM
71.798310185186 day's till Biden is sworn in.  :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
So far, Trump seems more focused on golfing, tantruming and firing people than on wrecking the US. Hopefully that will continue.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on November 09, 2020, 06:23:07 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
So far, Trump seems more focused on golfing, tantruming and firing people than on wrecking the US. Hopefully that will continue.
That's always been his focus, so why should it change now? :sleep:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2020, 07:00:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 11:00:44 AM
Short of voting reform (HINT HINT) the only way socialists are going to make a break through is if the moderates can cement their hold so much that being crazy just doesn't work for the republicans anymore and they have to fight for the centre (ala Cameron with the Tories).
When the alternative is things going backwards then it makes sense for the Democrats to stick with safe options to secure the sane conservatives.
If the Republicans are angling for sane people though then the way is clear for the Democrats to try something outside the box and try to push forward.

All said though full support for there being socialists within the democrat party. Overton window and highlighting that the moderates are what they are and all that.

This would make sense only if the objective is to *propose* as many new progressive policies as possible rather than see them implemented.  If Republicans present a sane alternative, then more wacky ideas from the left are going to push more moderates to vote on the right.

Trump in many respects presented an ideal opportunity for progressives.  Force the country to choose between progressive ideas and insanity.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:01:36 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
So far, Trump seems more focused on golfing, tantruming and firing people than on wrecking the US. Hopefully that will continue.

He probably won't do anything to wreck his future in the GOP. He, or a member of his family, would be a front runner in a 2024 GOP primary.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: 11B4V on November 09, 2020, 07:03:48 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:01:36 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
So far, Trump seems more focused on golfing, tantruming and firing people than on wrecking the US. Hopefully that will continue.

He probably won't do anything to wreck his future in the GOP. He, or a member of his family, would be a front runner in a 2024 GOP primary.

They're all poison and nuts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 09, 2020, 09:10:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 07:01:36 PM
Quote from: Malthus on November 09, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
So far, Trump seems more focused on golfing, tantruming and firing people than on wrecking the US. Hopefully that will continue.

He probably won't do anything to wreck his future in the GOP. He, or a member of his family, would be a front runner in a 2024 GOP primary.

I don't see this at all.  Once Trump can no longer muster the power of the US government to hide his misdeeds, his name is going to turn to mud.  There are plenty of republican demagogues ready to step on his face to move up the political ladder.  The party doesn't need him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:19:03 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 08, 2020, 10:17:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 08, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2020, 08:45:12 AM
AOC is wasting no time... What's the strategy to force the Republican senate to accept progressives in the cabinet?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party)

QuoteAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning 'incompetent' Democratic party
I don't think she has a strategy.  She's just pissed off the "establishment" of the party blames her team for not winning more House seats.

Wasn't her "team" like the most successful of the Democratic party in these elections?
Yes, but they were all in relatively safe districts.  Everywhere they thought they could flip, the Dems didn't.  McConnell, Graham and Collins are still Senators, no gains there.  Being re-elected in a place where 60% of voters picked Dems the last time ain't such a great achievement.

They scared the centrists away, so now, they want to go further left to piss off the rest of the voters.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:24:46 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2020, 10:49:35 AM
BTW, I don't think people like AOC need to be marginalized, I think they're adding a lot of energy to what would otherwise be a geriatric ward.  I also think that they do know something about winning elections that the mainstream Democrats don't. 
I like her style.  But her political ideas, in the US context leave me totally cold, and I'm sure a lot of centrists, moderate right-wingers prefer voting for the GOP rather than risk having that kind of policies put forward.

Quote
I just think they both AOC and her fans have to realize that politics is often like a cornstarch:  a soft touch gets you further than a hard whack.  It's better to help people move in the right direction slowly than to involuntarily aid people to move in the wrong direction quickly.  I honestly believe that nothing in the US stands in the way of progress, not even the severely lopsided political system, if very progressive voters embraced pragmatism without losing their enthusiasm.
Well, that's the thing with radicals, they never learn their lesson until its too late.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:43:17 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 08, 2020, 12:43:33 PM
Yeah our Radical Left is Bernie. He just wants to tax the capitalists, not hang them with the rope they sold him.
that's what he says.   -_-
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:54:53 PM
Quote from: fromtia on November 08, 2020, 02:05:09 PM
Start addressing the cares and concerns of working Americans outside wealthy suburbs, in poorer areas, in economically ruined areas and rural areas and do it like it's a fucking emergency, because it is.
How would they do that?  They had Obamacare, and they got slapped in the face right after that.
They fixed the China problem by isolating them, Trump wins, flipping Democrat bastions.
It seems everything they do short of giving money away like Trump did, they get hated for it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 11:55:25 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:19:03 PM
Everywhere they thought they could flip, the Dems didn't.

So far we have flipped three districts. Can't we at least wait until all the races are finalized before announcing our big sweeping conclusions?

QuoteThey scared the centrists away, so now, they want to go further left to piss off the rest of the voters.

Trump scared the centrists. As we saw there are not just a ton of centrists left.

This country seems to be growing more radical at both ends. I am not so sure centrism has a strong future, the Republicans sure as fuck have no use for it.

But we will see what comes after Joe Biden.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:34:16 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.

This.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:37:18 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 12:18:42 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.

Rural areas are fucked. You don't need many people to work on farms, and whatever low cost manufacturing used to be available has generally evaporated.

No one is going to fix rural income insecurity because the immediate future is with urbanization.

I actually wonder if remote working won't do this to some degree.

I have several coworkers who are moving out of the Big City and into small towns. They'll be spending their Big City money in those small town shops. That's going to help. Those dying small towns are suddenly not dying. They're growing and thriving.

This isn't a policy thing, though. It's just a shift in economic reality. But I do think that if the shift is big enough, there's a chance that it will have a direct impact on how rural folks vote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 12:57:29 AM
I thought the internet would help revitalize small towns but so far it has only enriched the cities more than ever.

But hey we will see.

I mean if you get 200 of your friends to follow you, you can achieve total political control of Loving County Texas.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:59:46 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 12:57:29 AM
I thought the internet would help revitalize small towns but so far it has only enriched the cities more than ever.

But hey we will see.

I mean if you get 200 of your friends to follow you, you can achieve total political control of Loving County Texas.

I'll let you handle that city. ;)

I'm working on Peoria, Illinois.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 01:02:06 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:59:46 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 12:57:29 AM
I thought the internet would help revitalize small towns but so far it has only enriched the cities more than ever.

But hey we will see.

I mean if you get 200 of your friends to follow you, you can achieve total political control of Loving County Texas.

I'll let you handle that city. ;)

I'm working on Peoria, Illinois.

It is a county that has only 134 people living in it, the least populated county in the entire continental United States. It has nothing approaching a town much less a city :P

But it is 350 miles from my house so it is only a suggestion for city dwellers wanting to turn a red county blue :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2020, 01:23:59 AM
It's most likely a place not worth living in.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 01:27:34 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2020, 01:23:59 AM
It's most likely a place not worth living in.

Unless you love deserts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 10, 2020, 05:37:57 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 09:11:18 AM
I think AOC is still too young in 2024 both in eligibility & actual age. It's only a max of 8 years, ending your 2 terms before you are 50 makes for a very long post-presidency life.

She turns 35 in 2024, which is the minimum age to become president. I don't think she'll do that, though.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 10, 2020, 06:46:25 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 01:27:34 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2020, 01:23:59 AM
It's most likely a place not worth living in.

Unless you love deserts.

Or Westerns.  :P

(https://assets.landsofamerica.com/resizedimages/10000/10000/h/80/1-3768475239)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 06:53:59 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 12:57:29 AM
I thought the internet would help revitalize small towns but so far it has only enriched the cities more than ever.

But hey we will see.

I mean if you get 200 of your friends to follow you, you can achieve total political control of Loving County Texas.

Because, as usual, americans let private enterprise dictate development priorities.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2020, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:37:18 AM
I actually wonder if remote working won't do this to some degree.

I have several coworkers who are moving out of the Big City and into small towns. They'll be spending their Big City money in those small town shops. That's going to help. Those dying small towns are suddenly not dying. They're growing and thriving.

This isn't a policy thing, though. It's just a shift in economic reality. But I do think that if the shift is big enough, there's a chance that it will have a direct impact on how rural folks vote.

There are small towns that will probably be helped, but there are a LOT of small towns. City dwellers may move to that quaint town in the mountains or by the lake, but no one is going to relocate from NYC to some random dot on the map in Kansas or Oklahoma.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 10, 2020, 10:09:38 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2020, 11:55:25 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:19:03 PM
Everywhere they thought they could flip, the Dems didn't.

So far we have flipped three districts. Can't we at least wait until all the races are finalized before announcing our big sweeping conclusions?
The GOP has gained 4 seats in the House.
So far, the Senate is neutral, 1 gain, 1 loss each side, Georgia remains for January, but somehow, I doubt it will flip to the Dems.  But we'll see.  As a foreigner, I'll be happy for you if the Dems gain at least 1 of those seats :)

Quote
Trump scared the centrists. As we saw there are not just a ton of centrists left.
Well, yeah, he demonized the party by using the left wing of your party and he managed to convince voters he was right.  If you can't counter the message, there is a problem.

Quote
This country seems to be growing more radical at both ends. I am not so sure centrism has a strong future, the Republicans sure as fuck have no use for it.
You are right about the Republicans.  But I still think the future of the Democratic party is at the center-right.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 10, 2020, 10:14:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 06:53:59 AM
Because, as usual, americans let private enterprise dictate development priorities.
Here, the government dictates where electricity goes.  Lots of people, including me, even though I ain't that far from civilization, have constant problems with electricity.  In the last few months, I've lost my microwave, my pellet stove broke, my dishwasher keeps freaking out and I have a bathroom light that will often burn because of a power surge.  I've had to buy UPS units for all electronics and computers in the house because I lost two power supply and one motherboard.

For some of my clients, they fought tooth and nail with Hydro-Quebec to get them to recognize they had a parasitic problem.  Millions of $ in lawyer fees to get your government to fix something.

At least, with the private, there's some competition.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 10, 2020, 10:16:59 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 10, 2020, 09:45:31 AM
There are small towns that will probably be helped, but there are a LOT of small towns. City dwellers may move to that quaint town in the mountains or by the lake, but no one is going to relocate from NYC to some random dot on the map in Kansas or Oklahoma.
I feel all these moves may be temporary.  Sure, people like the quietness of the countryside.  But then, they want everything they left in the city: veganism, reserved bike lanes, lights everywhere, asphalt everywhere, no trees that block their view, etc
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 10, 2020, 10:23:57 AM
What exactly is the problem with the countryside? That there aren't enough jobs? Or that there are few high-paying jobs? Other?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2020, 10:57:58 AM
QuoteI feel all these moves may be temporary.  Sure, people like the quietness of the countryside.  But then, they want everything they left in the city: veganism, reserved bike lanes, lights everywhere, asphalt everywhere, no trees that block their view, etc
There's definitely something to this to an extent. The draw of the city, particularly for the young, is just as much in the life as the jobs.
We already have a bit of a trend in the UK with everyone (without their dog) moving to London immediately post uni as its the only way to get started in a professional career, then as soon as they can over 30 moving out to breed.

Quote from: merithyn on November 10, 2020, 12:37:18 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2020, 12:18:42 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 09, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Fix rural income insecurity & you'll see change.

Rural areas are fucked. You don't need many people to work on farms, and whatever low cost manufacturing used to be available has generally evaporated.

No one is going to fix rural income insecurity because the immediate future is with urbanization.

I actually wonder if remote working won't do this to some degree.

I have several coworkers who are moving out of the Big City and into small towns. They'll be spending their Big City money in those small town shops. That's going to help. Those dying small towns are suddenly not dying. They're growing and thriving.

This isn't a policy thing, though. It's just a shift in economic reality. But I do think that if the shift is big enough, there's a chance that it will have a direct impact on how rural folks vote.
A bit different in the UK with the scale of the move being less but I do suspect this trend might happen here too. More remote workers only going into the office in the city a few times a week, the rest staying in their small town.... Leaves a lot of opportunity for more of an upmarket economy in the small towns with cafes et al.

A big business idea I'd be curious to do some research into if I had anything like the funding for such a thing is to look into flexible meeting spaces in small towns outside the big cities- if you've a meeting with 5 people who all live SW of the city then why treck into the office just for that, why not just meet in the small town SW of the city that is closer and more convenient for you all?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 11:34:26 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 10, 2020, 10:14:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 06:53:59 AM
Because, as usual, americans let private enterprise dictate development priorities.
Here, the government dictates where electricity goes.  Lots of people, including me, even though I ain't that far from civilization, have constant problems with electricity.  In the last few months, I've lost my microwave, my pellet stove broke, my dishwasher keeps freaking out and I have a bathroom light that will often burn because of a power surge.  I've had to buy UPS units for all electronics and computers in the house because I lost two power supply and one motherboard.

For some of my clients, they fought tooth and nail with Hydro-Quebec to get them to recognize they had a parasitic problem.  Millions of $ in lawyer fees to get your government to fix something.

At least, with the private, there's some competition.

If it was private you wouldn't have electricity from them. You would have it from a small local coop, because Hydro-Bell refuses to lay down hundreds of km of line to service 5 households. So sorry.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 10, 2020, 11:41:32 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 11:34:26 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 10, 2020, 10:14:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 06:53:59 AM
Because, as usual, americans let private enterprise dictate development priorities.
Here, the government dictates where electricity goes.  Lots of people, including me, even though I ain't that far from civilization, have constant problems with electricity.  In the last few months, I've lost my microwave, my pellet stove broke, my dishwasher keeps freaking out and I have a bathroom light that will often burn because of a power surge.  I've had to buy UPS units for all electronics and computers in the house because I lost two power supply and one motherboard.

For some of my clients, they fought tooth and nail with Hydro-Quebec to get them to recognize they had a parasitic problem.  Millions of $ in lawyer fees to get your government to fix something.

At least, with the private, there's some competition.

If it was private you wouldn't have electricity from them. You would have it from a small local coop, because Hydro-Bell refuses to lay down hundreds of km of line to service 5 households. So sorry.

Hydro-Bell seems to be a type of culvert design so probably not interested in laying down any kind of power lines under any circumstances.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: fromtia on November 10, 2020, 11:49:48 AM
Quote from: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:54:53 PM
How would they do that?  They had Obamacare, and they got slapped in the face right after that.
They fixed the China problem by isolating them, Trump wins, flipping Democrat bastions.
It seems everything they do short of giving money away like Trump did, they get hated for it.

Campaigning and organizing are always a good place to start in a democracy. What do most people want? I think most people want more or less what I want, I want to be left alone and I want the opportunity to make as much money as I can because that solves most of my other problems. If we can address the calamitous cost of housing, education and healthcare then that ties into the money thing. That's the broad approach I would take. The economic cares and concerns of ordinary people. Trump won in part because he gave people the false hope that he was addressing those concerns by talking about China and NAFTA.

The ACA is unpopular (although some small parts of it are popular) because it's a moderates answer to the healthcare problem - arcane and complicated, it overpromised and under delivered. Buy some health insurance you can barely afford with the help of a government subsidy - perhaps for the first time in your life, use it and get fucked with a bill for $10,000 including hidden out of network and facility fees you knew nothing about. Don't buy it and get fined by the IRS. I'm not surprised people were mad, before the GOP and Fox etc had demagogued it to death on the national stage.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: fromtia on November 10, 2020, 12:00:06 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 09, 2020, 11:19:03 PM
Yes, but they were all in relatively safe districts.  Everywhere they thought they could flip, the Dems didn't.  McConnell, Graham and Collins are still Senators, no gains there.  Being re-elected in a place where 60% of voters picked Dems the last time ain't such a great achievement.

They scared the centrists away, so now, they want to go further left to piss off the rest of the voters.

I'm not sure this is accurate. I know the traditional calculation is that if Democrats run left then its McGovern* all over again and doom is imminent because the American voter only cares about firearms(or something). Personally I think this is out of date. I do think that if you run on some kind of vapid identity politics of a leftish sort that's a mistake though, I think people rightly hate that. 



*In one of several Zelig like moments in my life I had the opportunity to wait on George McGovern in his later years. He was very polite. He ordered the special.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:19:29 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 10, 2020, 10:23:57 AM
What exactly is the problem with the countryside? That there aren't enough jobs? Or that there are few high-paying jobs? Other?
both.  And they're Christians.  conservative Christians.  You talk to them about immigrant rights, lgbt rights, people changing sex, it's like the Apocalypse has begun.  Many aren't still over that whole freeing the slaves thing, so we have to give them time ;)
Seriously, there are the jobs thing and the fact that people have a huge mistrust of government interventions in private lives.  It's even worst in the US than elsewhere.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:21:49 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 11:34:26 AM
If it was private you wouldn't have electricity from them. You would have it from a small local coop, because Hydro-Bell refuses to lay down hundreds of km of line to service 5 households. So sorry.
We have internet services from a couple of providers, which disproves your point.  So long as competition is allowed to flourish, it ain't much of a problem.  Whenever it's a monopoly though, private or public, it's the same.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
Quote from: fromtia on November 10, 2020, 11:49:48 AM
Campaigning and organizing are always a good place to start in a democracy.
IIRC, they were supposed to do that after the 2016 defeat and it got them a House win for 2018.I figured they were still doing it, but it's quite possible I am mistaken.

Quote
What do most people want? I think most people want more or less what I want, I want to be left alone and I want the opportunity to make as much money as I can because that solves most of my other problems.
That's a problem right there.  Anything the government will do will cost money, and while in the US there is a lot of room to re-tax the super rich, at some point, anything that requires fixing will require more taxes and be a break on your opportunity to make as much money as you can.

Quote
If we can address the calamitous cost of housing,
That's mostly for States/Cities, though.  I can't really see the Fed gov having much to do about it given the vast differences between the various States and cities.

Quote
education
That means increasing the taxes.  Never popular.
Quote
and healthcare then that ties into the money thing. That's the broad approach I would take. The economic cares and concerns of ordinary people. Trump won in part because he gave people the false hope that he was addressing those concerns by talking about China and NAFTA.
China must be dealt with, but the US can't go at it alone since it's a global problem.NAFTA made the US much richer, it's only been used as a scapegoat for the loss or productivity in the US.  Which ties to education who happens to be a local issue, mostly.  Colleges are one thing, but there are good jobs to be had with non college education too.  But you still need some professional training.


Quote
The ACA is unpopular (although some small parts of it are popular) because it's a moderates answer to the healthcare problem - arcane and complicated, it overpromised and under delivered. Buy some health insurance you can barely afford with the help of a government subsidy - perhaps for the first time in your life, use it and get fucked with a bill for $10,000 including hidden out of network and facility fees you knew nothing about. Don't buy it and get fined by the IRS. I'm not surprised people were mad, before the GOP and Fox etc had demagogued it to death on the national stage.
Well, yeah, the ACA was a compromise that got gutted by red States enabling restrictions on it from what I understand.
Medicare for all would likely be a solution, but that is unacceptable to a majority of the people who currently vote Republican and they are in the countryside...  I think it's a dead-end for the Democrats like AOC to insist on this.  Imho, as Berkut pointed out a while ago, it'd be better to extend coverage while keeping private insurances around, at least for a while, because Americans are scared about losing their actual coverage.

And nothing will ever get done on the ACA side of things as long as people in the countryside who want this fixed vote GOP...
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 11, 2020, 06:38:51 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:21:49 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 10, 2020, 11:34:26 AM
If it was private you wouldn't have electricity from them. You would have it from a small local coop, because Hydro-Bell refuses to lay down hundreds of km of line to service 5 households. So sorry.
We have internet services from a couple of providers, which disproves your point.  So long as competition is allowed to flourish, it ain't much of a problem.  Whenever it's a monopoly though, private or public, it's the same.

The cost of building a network of telecommunications is vastly inferior to the one of building an electricy distribution system. Especially when it's heavely subsidized.

You have 2 backbone provider, Telus & Cogeco, maybe.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: fromtia on November 12, 2020, 01:39:57 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
IIRC, they were supposed to do that after the 2016 defeat and it got them a House win for 2018.I figured they were still doing it, but it's quite possible I am mistaken.

Yeah, it worked pretty well for this one Kenyan guy two times. He went on to ruin the US by wearing a tan suit. More recently it also delivered GA for Biden and horrible leftists Rashida Tlaib spent more time banging on doors for Biden than anyone from Bidens campaign did in MI. This is a proven approach.

Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
That's a problem right there.  Anything the government will do will cost money, and while in the US there is a lot of room to re-tax the super rich, at some point, anything that requires fixing will require more taxes and be a break on your opportunity to make as much money as you can.

You say this with the certainty of someone who just read Atlas Shrugged for the first time, and I am not going to be able to penetrate that forcefield. You may not be correct, possibly.

Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
That's mostly for States/Cities, though.  I can't really see the Fed gov having much to do about it given the vast differences between the various States and cities.

Housing costs are a problem in rural areas as well, so federal programs that help with housing costs in rural areas and also incentivize or subsidize construction of affordable rental options in those areas could be an approach to take. Yes, I agree housing costs are most acute in cities which isn't necessarily what we were talking about, but I think they are an issue in a great many places. Yes, also agree that addressing housing costs are more municipal/state level.

Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
That means increasing the taxes.  Never popular.

AZ just passed 208, increasing taxes on wealthy people to pay for education. Food for thought.

Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
China must be dealt with, but the US can't go at it alone since it's a global problem.NAFTA made the US much richer, it's only been used as a scapegoat for the loss or productivity in the US.  Which ties to education who happens to be a local issue, mostly.  Colleges are one thing, but there are good jobs to be had with non college education too.  But you still need some professional training.

Did NAFTA make working people in the US much richer? In a way it's not the point I was making - Trump talking about NAFTA is part of his popularity whatever you personally believe about it's merits, there is a broad and common perception that NAFTA is responsible for good paying jobs in the US disappearing. Trump was not afraid to talk about that and Democrats need to counter. I agree with you wholeheartedly about the importance of vocational and technical training.

Quote from: viper37 on November 11, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
Well, yeah, the ACA was a compromise that got gutted by red States enabling restrictions on it from what I understand.
Medicare for all would likely be a solution, but that is unacceptable to a majority of the people who currently vote Republican and they are in the countryside...  I think it's a dead-end for the Democrats like AOC to insist on this.  Imho, as Berkut pointed out a while ago, it'd be better to extend coverage while keeping private insurances around, at least for a while, because Americans are scared about losing their actual coverage.

And nothing will ever get done on the ACA side of things as long as people in the countryside who want this fixed vote GOP...

All the Democrats who ran on support for Medicare for All won reelection. I don't think that healthcare reform, of some kind is as unpopular with rural Republican voters as you claim. I think a good way forward would be to introduce a public option ( I think this was originally planned ) and lower the age from 65 to 60 for medicare, or 55. All pretty moderate stuff. That's what I would do at least.

If you have already capitulated completely to any idea of addressing some problems that people face because Fox News might have a field day with it, then fair enough.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 03:38:23 PM
Trump nominated Judy Shelton to the Fed - she's a goldbug who is not a huge fan of the Fed, used to militate for far tighter monetary policy (she opposes the dual mandate and wants a 0% inflation target) and disagrees with Federal deposit insurance.

During the Trump administration she was an enormous fan of low interst rates and expansive monetary policy (she also moved from supporting free trade for most of her career to supporting trade wars).

Given her eccentric views her nomination has been on hold for about 18 months.

Inevitably and terribly on brand Republicans are now proceeding with hearings to approve her appointment :lol:

Edit: And no better sign that Republicans are very aware that Trump's lost.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2020, 06:51:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 03:38:23 PM
Inevitably and terribly on brand Republicans are now proceeding with hearings to approve her appointment :lol:

Not seeing what they get out of this.  Is there really mass popular movement to appoint Shelton to the Fed?  I very much doubt it.  For the monied element of their constituency - i.e. the people that sustain the party and its candidates - this is just more confirmation that the Biden Democrats are the safe pair of hands.

Shelton will have zero clout on the Fed so there is no policy impact either.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 13, 2020, 05:01:57 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 12, 2020, 06:51:35 PM
Not seeing what they get out of this.  Is there really mass popular movement to appoint Shelton to the Fed?  I very much doubt it.  For the monied element of their constituency - i.e. the people that sustain the party and its candidates - this is just more confirmation that the Biden Democrats are the safe pair of hands.

Shelton will have zero clout on the Fed so there is no policy impact either.
They'll start moaning about loose monetary policy want things tightened up and militating for changes on the Fed under a Biden policy. Just like they'll start wanting tighter fiscal policy too.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on November 13, 2020, 01:04:51 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/secret-service-coronavirus-outbreak/2020/11/13/610eebcc-2539-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

QuoteMore than 130 Secret Service officers are said to be infected with coronavirus or quarantining in wake of Trump's campaign travel

More than 130 Secret Service officers who help protect the White House and the president when he travels have recently been ordered to isolate or quarantine because they tested positive for the coronavirus or had close contact with infected co-workers, according to three people familiar with agency staffing.

The spread of the coronavirus — which has sidelined roughly 10 percent of the agency's core security team — is believed to be partly linked to a series of campaign rallies that President Trump held in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, according to the people, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the situation.

The outbreak comes as coronavirus cases have been rapidly rising across the nation, with more than 152,000 new cases reported Thursday.

The virus is having a dramatic impact on the Secret Service's presidential security unit at the same time that growing numbers of prominent Trump campaign allies and White House officials have fallen ill in the wake of campaign events, where many attendees did not wear masks.

Among those who are infected are White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and outside political advisers Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie.

In addition, at least eight staffers at the Republican National Committee, including Chief of Staff Richard Walters, have the virus, according to officials at the organization. Some of those infected are in field offices across the country, including Pennsylvania, where some believe they were exposed in large staff gatherings, an official said.

White House spokesman Judd Deere said the administration takes "every case seriously." He referred questions about the Secret Service outbreak to agency officials. A spokeswoman for the Secret Service declined to comment.

Trump went on a travel blitz in the final stretch of the campaign, making five campaign stops on each of the last two days. On Nov. 2, Trump's campaign schedule required five separate groups of Secret Service officers — each numbering 20 to several dozen — to travel to Fayetteville, N.C.; Scranton, Pa.; Traverse City and Grand Rapids, Mich.; and Kenosha, Wis.; to screen spectators and secure the perimeter around the president's events. President-elect Joe Biden made two campaign stops that day that also required Secret Service protection, but in smaller numbers.

The agency is also examining whether some portion of the current infections are not travel-related, one government official said, but instead trace back to the site where many Secret Service officers report for duty each day: the White House.

White House staff largely eschew wearing masks, despite public health guidelines that they help contain the spread of the virus, and some Secret Service officers on duty at the complex have also been seen without them.

The Secret Service employs roughly 1,300 officers in its Uniformed Division to guard the White House and the vice president's residence. The officers are also the backbone of security for presidential trips out of town and other official events. Officers are distinct from agents, most of whom work in plainclothes and provide close security of the president, his family members and other senior officials.

Earlier this week, agency supervisors told other staff about the large number of officers who have contracted the virus and said there has been expanded testing to help limit the spread, according to the people familiar with the situation.

The number of officers who have been pulled off duty creates a major stress on an already overworked team and will force many officers to forgo days off and work longer hours to compensate for absent co-workers. A 2015 blue-ribbon panel identified overworked Secret Service officers as one key factor that contributed to security breaches at the White House.

"Being down more than 100 officers is very problematic," said one former senior Secret Service supervisor. "That does not bode well for White House security."

It's not the first time the Secret Service has been hit hard by the decisions of Trump and Vice President Pence to travel during the pandemic. This summer, dozens of Secret Service agents fell ill or were sidelined and forced to quarantine in the wake of the president's massive indoor stadium rally in Tulsa in June and the vice president's subsequent trip to Arizona.

At the time, Secret Service spokesman Catherine Milhoan said in a statement to The Washington Post that the agency "continues to methodically assess the unique requirements necessary to operate in the ongoing pandemic environment."

But many of Trump's own choices put his protection team at heightened risk, specifically his choice to travel out of state and hold large public events. Secret Service agents and medical professionals were shocked early last month when Trump — then being treated at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for the coronavirus — insisted on taking a ride outside the hospital to wave to supporters from inside a government sport-utility vehicle. He wore a cloth mask, but many feared he was unnecessarily endangering the Secret Service agents inside the vehicle.

Deere defended the outing at the time, telling reporters "appropriate precautions were taken in the execution of this movement to protect the president and all those supporting it." He said precautions included personal protective equipment, without elaborating, and said the trip "was cleared by the medical team as safe to do."

While many people in Trump's orbit have contracted the virus this year, the most recent outbreak at the White House has been particularly extensive. Many of those who are now sick attended a campaign party last week in the East Room, or were exposed to someone who did.

Meadows was among those in the East Room of the White House when Trump gave remarks around 3 a.m. Wednesday to a crowd of about 150 of his top aides, donors and allies, as well as family members. During that event, Meadows worked the room extensively, without a mask, speaking to dozens.

More than a dozen White House aides have tested positive for the virus in the past week, including a range of low-level assistants and secretaries, officials said. Offices that have been affected include political affairs, legislative affairs and communications.

Meadows's positive diagnosis was revealed last week, along with the fact that he had urged staffers not to disclose it. The chief of staff is not expected to return to the office until next week, a person close to him said.

People present at Wednesday night's campaign party in the East Room who were around Meadows, Lewandowski and other now-sick staffers say they have not been contacted by the White House.

Several staffers said they were nervous about going to work because there has been such an outbreak. "I'm trying to work from home," one senior administration official said Wednesday afternoon. "It's not really safe to be in there right now."

Several aides said they were frustrated by a lack of transparency from their superiors, particularly Meadows, and that they did not notify more people of diagnoses.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 14, 2020, 08:14:37 PM
Quote from: fromtia on November 12, 2020, 01:39:57 PM
AZ just passed 208, increasing taxes on wealthy people to pay for education. Food for thought.
Seems to be the exception, though.

Quote
Did NAFTA make working people in the US much richer? In a way it's not the point I was making - Trump talking about NAFTA is part of his popularity whatever you personally believe about it's merits, there is a broad and common perception that NAFTA is responsible for good paying jobs in the US disappearing. Trump was not afraid to talk about that and Democrats need to counter. I agree with you wholeheartedly about the importance of vocational and technical training.
Since these jobs went to China and Vietnam, I'd say it's a sure bet NAFTA isn't the problem.
The wage gap between auto plants in the Southern States and those in Michigan is huge.  Yet, GM, Ford and Chrysler produce most of their cars in Ontario and Northern US States.  Some of them are made in Mexico.  But the reality is, globally, since NAFTA, US manufacturing output has increased.  Real wage has not, but it does not depend on NAFTA, or any single culprit.


Quote
All the Democrats who ran on support for Medicare for All won reelection.
Most of them ran in safe places.  If I tell you Liberal MPs gets elected in Western Montreal ridings with a 95% margins election after election since the 1960s, could you deduce the candidates won their last election because the party did an incredible job at managing the economy?


Quote
I don't think that healthcare reform, of some kind is as unpopular with rural Republican voters as you claim. I think a good way forward would be to introduce a public option ( I think this was originally planned ) and lower the age from 65 to 60 for medicare, or 55. All pretty moderate stuff. That's what I would do at least.
But that's far from medicare for all as envisionned by the AOC wing of the party, afaik.
It's what Berkut said should e done earlier in the Trump thread, if I'm not mistaken.

Quote
If you have already capitulated completely to any idea of addressing some problems that people face because Fox News might have a field day with it, then fair enough.
After Trump, I'd prefer not to have another Republican US President during my lifetime, but I have no control over it, sadly.

I'm just brainstorming to find the best way to reach all Americans and bring them back to the Dem fold, until such time as the GOP has renounced its populist&racist ways.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on November 15, 2020, 12:23:20 AM
Quote from: fromtia on November 12, 2020, 01:39:57 PM
You say this with the certainty of someone who just read Atlas Shrugged for the first time, and I am not going to be able to penetrate that forcefield. You may not be correct, possibly.

I haven't said this yet, but I missed you, fromtia
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 15, 2020, 05:05:43 AM
Quote from: PDH on November 15, 2020, 12:23:20 AM
Quote from: fromtia on November 12, 2020, 01:39:57 PM
You say this with the certainty of someone who just read Atlas Shrugged for the first time, and I am not going to be able to penetrate that forcefield. You may not be correct, possibly.

I haven't said this yet, but I missed you, fromtia

Well if you hadn't he wouldn't be posting, would he?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 15, 2020, 05:42:43 AM
PDH is as accurate as a Wyoming QB.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 04:43:55 PM
Well lets see if the democrats don't dick this all up.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 15, 2020, 08:15:57 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 04:43:55 PM
Well lets see if the democrats don't dick this all up.

Which part?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 08:29:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 15, 2020, 08:15:57 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 04:43:55 PM
Well lets see if the democrats don't dick this all up.

Which part?

The next four years.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on November 15, 2020, 08:48:07 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 08:29:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 15, 2020, 08:15:57 PM
Quote from: 11B4V on November 15, 2020, 04:43:55 PM
Well lets see if the democrats don't dick this all up.

Which part?

The next four years.

What administration in US history has gone four years without dicking it all up at some point?  You standards are too high.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on November 20, 2020, 01:59:10 PM
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/11/20/hoyer-earmarks-are-likely-coming-back-next-year/

QuoteHouse Democratic leaders are proceeding with plans to bring back earmarks for the 117th Congress, according to Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer.

Hoyer, D-Md., said in an interview that sometime after the Appropriations Committee's new chairwoman is elected the week of Nov. 30, she will begin soliciting House lawmakers to "ask for congressional initiatives for their districts and their states."
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on November 20, 2020, 02:01:36 PM
Good.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 20, 2020, 06:28:45 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.

Easier to bribe reps to vote for important legislation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 20, 2020, 08:07:47 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.

What it says to me is that they are going to have a small majority so they probably need to make it worth the reps while to pass legislation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 11:19:45 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.
.

Old style corruption that encourages members of congress to cooperate across party lines is better the new style corruption where nothing gets done and politics is about how much the President can steal for friends and family while passing out Get out of Jail Free cards.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 21, 2020, 08:49:06 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.
What Yi and Minsky say.

I'm not convinced by the argument. I also don't think it works for everyone, but we may well discover West Virginia's been renamed Joe Manchin State by the end of Biden's term :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on November 21, 2020, 10:17:26 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2020, 11:19:45 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 20, 2020, 06:15:19 PM
So, what's the case for earmarks? I know plenty against.
.

Old style corruption that encourages members of congress to cooperate across party lines is better the new style corruption where nothing gets done and politics is about how much the President can steal for friends and family while passing out Get out of Jail Free cards.


I prefer to think of it as "incentivized bipartisanship".
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 21, 2020, 10:28:22 AM
An imperfect solution for an imperfect world.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on November 21, 2020, 12:51:15 PM
It may be a fix, but it is not a repair.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.

God I hope he got his mother's looks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 21, 2020, 01:19:29 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.

God I hope he got his mother's looks.

Are you his father?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 02:18:46 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 21, 2020, 01:19:29 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.

God I hope he got his mother's looks.

Are you his father?

That hurts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on November 22, 2020, 09:00:06 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 02:18:46 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 21, 2020, 01:19:29 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.

God I hope he got his mother's looks.

Are you his father?

That hurts.
answer the question.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 03:39:45 AM
Quote from: katmai on November 22, 2020, 09:00:06 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 02:18:46 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 21, 2020, 01:19:29 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 21, 2020, 12:54:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 20, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Merrick Garland is reported to be under consideration to be Attorney-General under Biden.

God I hope he got his mother's looks.

Are you his father?

That hurts.
answer the question.

Wrong elephant man.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 23, 2020, 04:18:31 AM
I'm pretty sure Merrick is his given name.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 04:43:00 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 23, 2020, 04:18:31 AM
I'm pretty sure Merrick is his given name.

I can only work with the clay the Lord has provided.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 05:46:30 PM
Looking at the rumours/confirmed appointments by Biden and while I'm sure they're competent and will be good at their role (especially Yellen), it does really add to that feeling of American gerontocracy. So far John Kerry (76) has a climate role, proposed UN Ambassador is Linda Thomas-Greenfield (68), Janet Yellen for the Treasury (74).

There's Antony Blinken (only 58 - but that would make him the oldest member of the UK cabinet).

Obviously I've mentioned Pelosi etc before. But the thing with these executive positions that I wonder is, can't they be used to promote young talent (especially with similar politics to you)?

Also there's been loads of talk about the weakness of the upcoming Democrat bench - how much of that is there fault and how much is just people not getting out the way to let the young(er) generation come up?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 23, 2020, 06:03:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 05:46:30 PM

There's Antony Blinken (only 58 - but that would make him the oldest member of the UK cabinet).

And what a gathering of young statesmen that UK cabinet is! :p
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 06:11:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 23, 2020, 06:03:01 PM
And what a gathering of young statesmen that UK cabinet is! :p
:lol: Comparatively - I just feel like in your late 60s-70s you should be moving into "party grandee" or "big beast" territory rather than actively running things.

I wonder if it's a cultural thing and similar in the corporate world - there are very few CEOs in that age bracket - they're mainly late 40s-50s.

But also it's just really important that you don't keep the seat warm for so long that there's no chance for other people to rise up.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 23, 2020, 06:12:12 PM
On one hand, young people suck.

On the other, old people have sucked longer.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 23, 2020, 06:22:54 PM
Corey Booker should get something.  Booty Judge should get something.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on November 23, 2020, 06:40:49 PM
Apparently the GSA administrator has finally ok'ed Biden's transition efforts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 23, 2020, 06:44:04 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 05:46:30 PM
Looking at the rumours/confirmed appointments by Biden and while I'm sure they're competent and will be good at their role (especially Yellen), it does really add to that feeling of American gerontocracy. So far John Kerry (76) has a climate role, proposed UN Ambassador is Linda Thomas-Greenfield (68), Janet Yellen for the Treasury (74).

There's Antony Blinken (only 58 - but that would make him the oldest member of the UK cabinet).

Obviously I've mentioned Pelosi etc before. But the thing with these executive positions that I wonder is, can't they be used to promote young talent (especially with similar politics to you)?

Also there's been loads of talk about the weakness of the upcoming Democrat bench - how much of that is there fault and how much is just people not getting out the way to let the young(er) generation come up?

Same reason many of our movie blockbusters are sequels and remakes: familiar characters and storylines so it's considered a lower risk.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
How common are antediluvians in top jobs in other kinds of organizations in the US? Like major corporations?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:34:42 PM
Andrew Yang for Secretary of Commerce.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:36:27 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
How common are antediluvians in top jobs in other kinds of organizations in the US? Like major corporations?

Very common in the olde thyme industries. Tech has broken that recently but some day Bezos and all them will be old and still probably CEOs.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 23, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:34:42 PM
Andrew Yang for Secretary of Commerce.

Commerce doesn't do anything.  All the cool parts of the job got sucked out by the Trade Rep.

Well, they do stuff like weather forecasts, but the Secretary himself has a lot of time to kill.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 23, 2020, 07:40:58 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 06:11:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 23, 2020, 06:03:01 PM
And what a gathering of young statesmen that UK cabinet is! :p
:lol: Comparatively - I just feel like in your late 60s-70s you should be moving into "party grandee" or "big beast" territory rather than actively running things.

I wonder if it's a cultural thing and similar in the corporate world - there are very few CEOs in that age bracket - they're mainly late 40s-50s.

But also it's just really important that you don't keep the seat warm for so long that there's no chance for other people to rise up.
I think, usually, the average cabinet member of a US administration lasts longer than in a British parliamentary system.  In our system, we can have junior ministers, either in terms of portfolio or age, and if they screw up, they can get thrown to the wolves.  In the US, it's usually the fault of the President since he did picked them himself, not through the hazardous election process and generally, he's stuck with them for the ride, bar something really important, where as our opposition parties ask for a minister dismissal every week or so.

I guess it's more important to them to avoid risks caused by inexperience.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:47:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 23, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:34:42 PM
Andrew Yang for Secretary of Commerce.

Commerce doesn't do anything.  All the cool parts of the job got sucked out by the Trade Rep.

Well, they do stuff like weather forecasts, but the Secretary himself has a lot of time to kill.

Which is probably why he is considered a front runner :lol:

But Yang had ideas about better economic metrics to measure the health of the economy, maybe he can do some of that in Commerce I don't know. But him being in the cabinet at all would be a big win so I am hoping this rumor turns out to be true.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 07:50:57 PM
Quote from: viper37 on November 23, 2020, 07:40:58 PM
I think, usually, the average cabinet member of a US administration lasts longer than in a British parliamentary system.  In our system, we can have junior ministers, either in terms of portfolio or age, and if they screw up, they can get thrown to the wolves.  In the US, it's usually the fault of the President since he did picked them himself, not through the hazardous election process and generally, he's stuck with them for the ride, bar something really important, where as our opposition parties ask for a minister dismissal every week or so.

I guess it's more important to them to avoid risks caused by inexperience.
I get that - the UK system is far more political. Although here I don't think firing a junior minister would ever satisfy the press - if it's not a cabinet minister, it's not a real scandal.

It just seems like possibly Biden especially should be using this to promote younger talent/give them a chance rather than people from his generation (and should be promoting young figures on his wing of the party). But also I know people have commented on the lack of depth/underwhelming candidates in the Democrats but if so many senior positions are taken up by people in their 70s that might be part of the problem in the modern age.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:54:27 PM
Biden is trying to do exactly the opposite of that and assure establishment politicians they have nothing to fear, which is precisely what I expected him to do.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:24:21 PM
What has Yang accomplished, though, besides being a rich businessman who's actually not at all rich?  Does he bring any proven skills to the table?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 08:27:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:24:21 PM
What has Yang accomplished, though, besides being a rich businessman who's actually not at all rich?  Does he bring any proven skills to the table?

Well he ran non-profits and you don't get rich that way.

Any particular skills you are thinking of? He is an idea guy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:31:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 08:27:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:24:21 PM
What has Yang accomplished, though, besides being a rich businessman who's actually not at all rich?  Does he bring any proven skills to the table?

Well he ran non-profits and you don't get rich that way.

Any particular skills you are thinking of? He is an idea guy.
Skills that translate to managing a large bureaucracy.  Ability to effective fight political battles.  Idea guys don't necessarily make for good managers.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 23, 2020, 09:06:33 PM
Avril Haines named for DNI.  Worked as Deputy Director of CIA under Obama.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 09:16:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:31:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 08:27:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 23, 2020, 08:24:21 PM
What has Yang accomplished, though, besides being a rich businessman who's actually not at all rich?  Does he bring any proven skills to the table?

Well he ran non-profits and you don't get rich that way.

Any particular skills you are thinking of? He is an idea guy.
Skills that translate to managing a large bureaucracy.  Ability to effective fight political battles.  Idea guys don't necessarily make for good managers.

Ah good points.

He has managed organizations for most of his career so he has management skills but I don't know if any jobs prepare you well enough to be skilled at running a Federal Bureaucracy. I think his last two or so years have demonstrated he is politically savvy, at least savvy enough for this kind of consideration, but that is a different kind of political battle. I think he is as prepared and skilled as a political appointee to a lower level cabinet position would be expected to be, if not more.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on November 23, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
fanboi
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:27:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:36:27 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
How common are antediluvians in top jobs in other kinds of organizations in the US? Like major corporations?

Very common in the olde thyme industries. Tech has broken that recently but some day Bezos and all them will be old and still probably CEOs.

Well owners are a special case that's not really comparable to hired people or elected politicians. I was looking for a pattern in the US of picking ancient people for important top jobs, if such a pattern exists. When major corporations in America hire someone for the top job, do they often hire people who are pushing 80?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 03:29:36 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:27:13 AM
Well owners are a special case that's not really comparable to hired people or elected politicians. I was looking for a pattern in the US of picking ancient people for important top jobs, if such a pattern exists. When major corporations in America hire someone for the top job, do they often hire people who are pushing 80?

Doesn't happen.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on November 24, 2020, 03:39:07 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:27:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:36:27 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
How common are antediluvians in top jobs in other kinds of organizations in the US? Like major corporations?

Very common in the olde thyme industries. Tech has broken that recently but some day Bezos and all them will be old and still probably CEOs.

Well owners are a special case that's not really comparable to hired people or elected politicians. I was looking for a pattern in the US of picking ancient people for important top jobs, if such a pattern exists. When major corporations in America hire someone for the top job, do they often hire people who are pushing 80?

I'm not sure how elected politicians are like hired people.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:42:35 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 24, 2020, 03:39:07 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:27:13 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 23, 2020, 07:36:27 PM
Quote from: The Brain on November 23, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
How common are antediluvians in top jobs in other kinds of organizations in the US? Like major corporations?

Very common in the olde thyme industries. Tech has broken that recently but some day Bezos and all them will be old and still probably CEOs.

Well owners are a special case that's not really comparable to hired people or elected politicians. I was looking for a pattern in the US of picking ancient people for important top jobs, if such a pattern exists. When major corporations in America hire someone for the top job, do they often hire people who are pushing 80?

I'm not sure how elected politicians are like hired people.

What do you mean?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on November 24, 2020, 03:50:01 AM
What I said.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 24, 2020, 03:52:45 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 24, 2020, 03:48:57 AM
Presumably those two things would need to be similar to make it worthwhile comparing them to top corporate jobs.

I don't follow. They are both positions that other people pick you for, unlike owners of corporations or politicians that don't bother with elections.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 24, 2020, 12:40:47 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 23, 2020, 07:50:57 PM
It just seems like possibly Biden especially should be using this to promote younger talent/give them a chance rather than people from his generation (and should be promoting young figures on his wing of the party). But also I know people have commented on the lack of depth/underwhelming candidates in the Democrats but if so many senior positions are taken up by people in their 70s that might be part of the problem in the modern age.
I agree, but it would be against his nature: play safe, seek agreement from as much people as possible.
Americans tend to be much more conservative than we are, in their politics.  And even here, they talk all they want about how nice it is to have "youngsters" (meaning 40-50 I guess :P ) actually interested in politics, but whenever a younger candidate presents itself in any kind of leadership position, he gets slammed for his/her lack of experience.  Fringe leftist party get away with it, because the electors figure they won't do anything in the opposition (and they're right), and if one of the major traditional party does it, these kind of candidates serve as back benchers with no real responsibilities, and if they ever commit a mistake, they lose whatever responsibilities they have.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on November 24, 2020, 02:57:49 PM
It's done in Europe too. Our 35-year old female PM is still slammed by right-wingers for "lack of experience" (despite having served in municipal politics for 10 years). Meanwhile, the previous PM (a conservative middle-aged man) had nothing of the kind despite having come to his party leadership directly from business with no political career.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 24, 2020, 07:10:07 PM
Quote from: PDH on November 23, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
fanboi

I am keeping a spot for you on the bandwagon!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on November 25, 2020, 04:54:14 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJcuYKyHEgs
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on November 25, 2020, 06:39:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

The Quebec media is pretty in love with him already. (He speaks French.)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 25, 2020, 07:33:32 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

Eh?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on November 25, 2020, 08:21:14 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 25, 2020, 06:39:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

The Quebec media is pretty in love with him already. (He speaks French.)

He is half Hungarian which for the Hungarian press makes him Hungarian period.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 25, 2020, 08:27:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

A. Blinken?
:hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on November 25, 2020, 10:09:54 AM
 :hmm: :o
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on November 25, 2020, 12:18:05 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 25, 2020, 10:09:54 AM
:hmm: :o

What's worse is apparently in being introduced by Biden yesterday, Blinken apologized for his "insatiable appetite for bad puns".  :bash:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on November 25, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
I'm not sure why you'd want "exciting" cabinet nominations, Yi.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on November 25, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 25, 2020, 08:21:14 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 25, 2020, 06:39:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

The Quebec media is pretty in love with him already. (He speaks French.)

He is half Hungarian which for the Hungarian press makes him Hungarian period.

Even though he is Jewish?  How does that cognitive dissonance work for them?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 25, 2020, 02:43:44 PM
I'm looking forward to see what posts are offered to Winken and Nod.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on November 25, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:
that's the guy who speaks French, right?  Should be a change to get someone cultured at this position.  Then again, just about anyone would seem perfect for the job after this administration :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on November 25, 2020, 03:24:02 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 25, 2020, 01:22:15 PM
I'm not sure why you'd want "exciting" cabinet nominations, Yi.


I sure as hell don't.  I want government I don't have to think about.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on November 25, 2020, 03:25:57 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 25, 2020, 08:27:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 24, 2020, 10:25:11 PM
Antony Blinken for Sec State.

There's a nomination to get people's pulses racing. :mellow:

A. Blinken?
:hmm:

A secretary of state with a record of opposing slavery might hurt our relations with China and Saudi Arabia.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on November 25, 2020, 04:18:06 PM
I think all world leaders appreciate a Men In Tights reference.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on December 04, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
I'm chiming in now.

It'll be hell on Earth.  Socialism. Leftism.  Communism.  SUpermarkets will be empty.  Long lines to get 15.00 dollar gas.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on December 04, 2020, 03:41:17 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 04, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
I'm chiming in now.

It'll be hell on Earth.  Socialism. Leftism.  Communism.  SUpermarkets will be empty.  Long lines to get 15.00 dollar gas.

Dammit - why didn't you warn us before the election! :o :mad:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on December 04, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 04, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
I'm chiming in now.

It'll be hell on Earth.  Socialism. Leftism.  Communism.  SUpermarkets will be empty.  Long lines to get 15.00 dollar gas.

Everybody only moderately right of center is now a communist.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on December 04, 2020, 03:50:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 04, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on December 04, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
I'm chiming in now.

It'll be hell on Earth.  Socialism. Leftism.  Communism.  SUpermarkets will be empty.  Long lines to get 15.00 dollar gas.

Everybody only moderately right of center is now a communist.
Everyone not giving their money to the dear leader, and prepared to go on a violent rampage, is a traitor.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 02:32:43 PM
Pete Buttigieg is to be named as Biden's Secretary of Transportation.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/15/biden-cabinet-pete-buttigieg-transportation-secretary-445515

I'd been waiting to see where he wound up.  Stories were he wanted UN Ambassador, but he really has no foreign policy experience.  There were stories he turned down VA Secretary (a notoriously badly run part of the government).  Ambassador to China was also floated, but not really a position that would raise his profile.

So, they settle on Transportation.  Buttigieg really has no meaningful Transportation expertise (South Bend Indiana had a fleet of 60 buses).  In the Westminster system where you're limited by who is in your caucus it isn't unusual for Ministers to have no real experience leading their departments, but it's more unusual in the US I think.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2020, 02:34:19 PM
Better than Ambassador to China I guess.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on December 15, 2020, 02:52:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 02:32:43 PM
I'd been waiting to see where he wound up.  Stories were he wanted UN Ambassador, but he really has no foreign policy experience.  There were stories he turned down VA Secretary (a notoriously badly run part of the government).  Ambassador to China was also floated, but not really a position that would raise his profile.
Well Ambassador to China would have meant fuck all really - I think Ambassador to Australia could have been an interesting and potentially more profile raising role depending on how it was managed. A major democracy so far fewer limits on what he can say, plus a country on the sort of "frontline" of US v China tensions and a regional leader where he'd be helping build/coordinate the alliance on a day to day basis.

QuoteSo, they settle on Transportation.  Buttigieg really has no meaningful Transportation expertise (South Bend Indiana had a fleet of 60 buses).  In the Westminster system where you're limited by who is in your caucus it isn't unusual for Ministers to have no real experience leading their departments, but it's more unusual in the US I think.
Yes. But I don't see what difference it necessarily makes given that in the US you also have loads of basically partisan career civil servants to support the cabinet members. I feel like if he could credibly be President the fact he's not a wonk in x policy area shouldn't matter. I'm also not convinced appointing subject area officials helps - look at Obama's often wonky choices - what's more is credibility and closeness or not to the President - x policy expert who's been doing the rounds in Democrat think tanks strikes me as someone who'll be a less effective Secretary of whatever than someone who has politically helped Biden get elected/been a great surrogate and has a bit of capital.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maximus on December 15, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
I thought foreign policy was considered his strong point.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:10:17 PM
Quote from: Maximus on December 15, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
I thought foreign policy was considered his strong point.

He's a 38 year old former mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana.  In the past he did a tour in Afghanistan and worked for McKinsey consulting.

Other than speaking multiple languages (I read 8) there's nothing that really shouts foreign policy as a strong suit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2020, 04:11:28 PM
And none of those languages is Mandarin.

I am just glad Rahm Emmanuel did not end up at Transportation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maximus on December 15, 2020, 04:16:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 15, 2020, 04:11:28 PM
I am just glad Rahm Emmanuel did not end up at Transportation.
Isn't that the truth.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on December 15, 2020, 04:19:27 PM
I've always quite liked Rahm Emanuel :blush:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:25:11 PM
While I'm aware of who Rahm Emmanuel is, and that he was a former White House Chief of Staff for Obama and former Mayor of Chicago, what exactly is the knock against him?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 15, 2020, 04:27:58 PM
That he was mayor of Chicago.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on December 15, 2020, 04:46:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:25:11 PM
While I'm aware of who Rahm Emmanuel is, and that he was a former White House Chief of Staff for Obama and former Mayor of Chicago, what exactly is the knock against him?

I am not going to go into it unless his name crops up again. But Max lived in Illinois at the time so he is probably the man to go into the dirty details.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:49:21 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 15, 2020, 04:46:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:25:11 PM
While I'm aware of who Rahm Emmanuel is, and that he was a former White House Chief of Staff for Obama and former Mayor of Chicago, what exactly is the knock against him?

I am not going to go into it unless his name crops up again. But Max lived in Illinois at the time so he is probably the man to go into the dirty details.

I love Max, but I'm pretty sure the fact that Emannuel is a centrist is all the reason Max needs to dislike him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on December 15, 2020, 04:59:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 15, 2020, 04:25:11 PM
While I'm aware of who Rahm Emmanuel is, and that he was a former White House Chief of Staff for Obama and former Mayor of Chicago, what exactly is the knock against him?

IIRC he's a very divisive figure amongst the Democrats, already from his time as Obama's chief of staff. Apparently he has a very abrassive personality and his style of negotiating is of the "take no prisoners" style, which rubs a lot of people the wrong way. He has also been criticised for his tenure as major of Chicago, as he seems to have worsened the city's inequality issues, including the handling of some police shootings.

I managed to find this article on the issue:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/11/rahm-emanuel-joe-biden-cabinet-chicago-mayor (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/11/rahm-emanuel-joe-biden-cabinet-chicago-mayor)

QuoteNews that Rahm Emanuel is being considered for transportation secretary or another position in Joe Biden's cabinet or senior team has sparked outrage among Chicagoans who believe his controversial tenure as mayor of that city should disqualify him from a return to the highest echelons of Washington.

Emanuel is a Chicago native with a track record as an Illinois congressman before serving as Barack Obama's chief of staff then two terms as Chicago mayor.

But he's a divisive figure who long ago upset liberals, most prominently in Washington, by discouraging Obama from pursuing what became his signature legislative achievement – healthcare reform via the Affordable Care Act – and then in myriad ways as mayor of Chicago from 2011 to 2019.
(...)
But prominent progressives in Chicago and elsewhere are livid that Biden would even give his name an airing, accusing Emanuel of exacerbating the city's entrenched, acute inequalities and, most dramatically, botching the handling of Black teenager Laquan McDonald's killing by a white police officer in 2014.

Rahm Emanuel "covered up the murder of a young Black man in Chicago in order to advance his political career", city alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa said of his potential appointment.

Dashcam footage of 17-year-old McDonald being gunned down by officer Jason Van Dyke, who was convicted in 2018 of the murder, was suppressed for more than a year before a judge ordered it released. Emanuel's role in that delay ignited weeks of local and national protests and calls for his resignation. It left an indelible stain and he didn't run for a third term.

So, maybe not the best appointment for the BLM era.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on December 19, 2020, 04:18:03 PM
So what are the odds on Georgia?
I'm skeptical. I'm guessing a lot of anti trump republicans voted Biden but will vote republican in the rerun.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on December 19, 2020, 05:48:11 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 19, 2020, 04:18:03 PM
So what are the odds on Georgia?
I'm skeptical. I'm guessing a lot of anti trump republicans voted Biden but will vote republican in the rerun.


Who knows?  Everything is so fucking weird right now.  Normally it should be an easy win for Republicans, but this year Stacey Abrams produced a miracle (the women should run the party), and you have a large number of Republicans who take Donald Trump's statement about a rigged election at face value and say they won't vote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on December 19, 2020, 09:09:01 PM
Polls suggest a Republican win...but as Raz said it's weird. So I have no idea.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on December 19, 2020, 09:31:38 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2020, 05:48:11 PM
Who knows?  Everything is so fucking weird right now.  Normally it should be an easy win for Republicans, but this year Stacey Abrams produced a miracle (the women should run the party), and you have a large number of Republicans who take Donald Trump's statement about a rigged election at face value and say they won't vote.

If Stacy Abrams could produce electoral miracles she would be governor now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on December 20, 2020, 02:56:06 AM
Quote from: The Larch on December 15, 2020, 04:59:34 PM

IIRC he's a very divisive figure amongst the Democrats, already from his time as Obama's chief of staff. Apparently he has a very abrassive personality and his style of negotiating is of the "take no prisoners" style, which rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

His brother was the inspiration for the character of Ari Gold in Entourage, I can see abrassiveness running deep in that family  :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 01:04:28 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkwktQ93Qvw

Biden's nomination for Attorney General going to be...wait for it...

Merrick Garland.

That's SASSY.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 06, 2021, 01:11:33 PM
Putting that chip on his shoulder to good use.  :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 01:17:22 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 19, 2020, 09:31:38 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 19, 2020, 05:48:11 PM
Who knows?  Everything is so fucking weird right now.  Normally it should be an easy win for Republicans, but this year Stacey Abrams produced a miracle (the women should run the party), and you have a large number of Republicans who take Donald Trump's statement about a rigged election at face value and say they won't vote.

If Stacy Abrams could produce electoral miracles she would be governor now.

Or two senate seats.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 06, 2021, 06:45:05 PM
I was wondering something that is not clear to me.  Does the new legislative assemblies (House&Senate) begin governing (voting laws, approving budgets, etc) before the new President is sworn in or are they just doing "extraordinary" short sessions to approve the vote of the Electoral College?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on January 07, 2021, 02:11:30 PM
Biden is announcing his DOJ nominees.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 07, 2021, 03:38:15 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 06, 2021, 06:45:05 PM
I was wondering something that is not clear to me.  Does the new legislative assemblies (House&Senate) begin governing (voting laws, approving budgets, etc) before the new President is sworn in or are they just doing "extraordinary" short sessions to approve the vote of the Electoral College?

It's a new Congress, so they can do as they please.  The new President of the Senate doesn't take office until Jan 20th, however.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on January 07, 2021, 05:39:48 PM
I thought his response yesterday to the Capitol invasion/violence and calling out Trump has very good, maybe a couple of minutes too long, but he can be forgiven for being somewhat angry having seen the shameful events taking place at the heart of US democracy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 08, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 01:04:28 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkwktQ93Qvw

Biden's nomination for Attorney General going to be...wait for it...

Merrick Garland.

That's SASSY.
Is there any reason for this beyond owning the cons? Like is there reason to Garland has the right sort of skillset/experience to be a good AG? Because in my head being an AG and Supreme Court Justice are quite different :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 08, 2021, 06:33:20 AM
Who is this man and why do right wingers hate him?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on January 08, 2021, 06:38:01 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2021, 06:33:20 AM
Who is this man and why do right wingers hate him?

He reminds them of their hypocrisy and Obama.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 08, 2021, 06:38:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2021, 06:33:20 AM
Who is this man and why do right wingers hate him?

Merrick Garland? He's the candidate for the Supreme Court nominated by Obama that the Republicans refused to consider because it happened in his last year of the presidency.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 08, 2021, 06:43:11 AM
Quote from: The Larch on January 08, 2021, 06:38:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2021, 06:33:20 AM
Who is this man and why do right wingers hate him?

Merrick Garland? He's the candidate for the Supreme Court nominated by Obama that the Republicans refused to consider because it happened in his last year of the presidency.
Ahh, makes sense now.

Seems a nice move to give him this position then after he had the other big one unfairly denied him at the last moment.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 08, 2021, 10:18:41 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 08, 2021, 06:19:57 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 01:04:28 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkwktQ93Qvw

Biden's nomination for Attorney General going to be...wait for it...

Merrick Garland.

That's SASSY.
Is there any reason for this beyond owning the cons? Like is there reason to Garland has the right sort of skillset/experience to be a good AG? Because in my head being an AG and Supreme Court Justice are quite different :hmm:

He worked in the us attorneys office in DC and as deputy associate AG under Clinton before becoming a judge
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 08, 2021, 10:20:40 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 08, 2021, 06:43:11 AM
Seems a nice move to give him this position then after he had the other big one unfairly denied him at the last moment.
Yeah, and I would love to see him put a bunch of Trumpists, and possibly even Trump himself, in jail.  Oh the delicious irony....
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 08, 2021, 10:32:53 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 08, 2021, 10:18:41 AM
He worked in the us attorneys office in DC and as deputy associate AG under Clinton before becoming a judge
Okay that is a reasonable background - although query if you'd be better appointing someone with more recent experience than the 90s.

QuoteYeah, and I would love to see him put a bunch of Trumpists, and possibly even Trump himself, in jail.  Oh the delicious irony....
I've read that Trump is considering self-pardoning and it's interesting because I think if he just leaves office Biden will want to move on (and I personally feel that after Iran-Contra, after torture, after the entire Trump administration that some Republicans need to see consequences for what they do when they're in the executive). But if he self-pardons I sort of feel like the DoJ has to prosecute him to challenge the scope of a self-pardon.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 08, 2021, 12:01:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 08, 2021, 10:32:53 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 08, 2021, 10:18:41 AM
He worked in the us attorneys office in DC and as deputy associate AG under Clinton before becoming a judge
Okay that is a reasonable background - although query if you'd be better appointing someone with more recent experience than the 90s.

*cough* Bill Barr *cough*
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 08, 2021, 12:11:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 08, 2021, 12:01:35 PM
*cough* Bill Barr *cough*
:lol: See also Rudy Giuliani.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
So McConnell has said there will be no rush to deal with the Trump impeachment - it can wait until after Biden is sworn in.

This has the effect of turning the whole problem over to the Dems and gets Trump, even after he leaves office, to still dominate the agenda even during Biden's first 100 days.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on January 13, 2021, 05:21:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
So McConnell has said there will be no rush to deal with the Trump impeachment - it can wait until after Biden is sworn in.

This has the effect of turning the whole problem over to the Dems and gets Trump, even after he leaves office, to still dominate the agenda even during Biden's first 100 days.

Trump and his crew were going to be on the agenda, anyway.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on January 13, 2021, 06:00:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
So McConnell has said there will be no rush to deal with the Trump impeachment - it can wait until after Biden is sworn in.

This has the effect of turning the whole problem over to the Dems and gets Trump, even after he leaves office, to still dominate the agenda even during Biden's first 100 days.

It isn't a nefarious plot--he really didn't have a choice. Biden takes office in 7 days. Aside from the reality that the Senate is in recess until then, how are you going to hold a trial in 7 days, presided over by the Chief Justice?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 13, 2021, 09:25:17 PM
He was able to do a Supreme Court Justice confirmation is record time. It is amazing how fast the political process can be when the politicians want it to be fast.

But those two Georgia Democrats will not be in DC until after the 20th and those might be two pretty important votes to convict...

I am just glad we got that impeachment through the House quickly. There is a lot of important business to get to.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 14, 2021, 12:19:34 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 13, 2021, 06:00:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
So McConnell has said there will be no rush to deal with the Trump impeachment - it can wait until after Biden is sworn in.

This has the effect of turning the whole problem over to the Dems and gets Trump, even after he leaves office, to still dominate the agenda even during Biden's first 100 days.

It isn't a nefarious plot--he really didn't have a choice. Biden takes office in 7 days. Aside from the reality that the Senate is in recess until then, how are you going to hold a trial in 7 days, presided over by the Chief Justice?

There's an emergency Senate rule that allows the Senate to be immediately called into session if the Majority and Minority leader agree. This is just Mitch pushing things down the line so he can take up some of Biden's time and see what other information comes out on this attack.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2021, 06:51:45 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/biden-stimulus-package-details-checks-unemployment-minimum-wage.html

Uncle Joe's relief bill proposal.

Quote
    Direct payments of $1,400 to most Americans, bringing the total relief to $2,000, including December's $600 payments
    Increasing the federal, per-week unemployment benefit to $400 and extending it through the end of September
    Increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour
    Extending the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums until the end of September
    $350 billion in state and local government aid
    $170 billion for K-12 schools and institutions of higher education
    $50 billion toward Covid-19 testing
    $20 billion toward a national vaccine program in partnership with states, localities and tribes
    Making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable for the year and increasing the credit to $3,000 per child ($3,600 for a child under age 6)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 14, 2021, 08:11:38 PM
Oh look that local government aid Pelosi promised. And just throwing in $15.00 minimum wage...

Well good luck getting Manchin on board Joe.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 04:54:56 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 14, 2021, 12:19:34 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 13, 2021, 06:00:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 05:08:05 PM
So McConnell has said there will be no rush to deal with the Trump impeachment - it can wait until after Biden is sworn in.

This has the effect of turning the whole problem over to the Dems and gets Trump, even after he leaves office, to still dominate the agenda even during Biden's first 100 days.

It isn't a nefarious plot--he really didn't have a choice. Biden takes office in 7 days. Aside from the reality that the Senate is in recess until then, how are you going to hold a trial in 7 days, presided over by the Chief Justice?

There's an emergency Senate rule that allows the Senate to be immediately called into session if the Majority and Minority leader agree. This is just Mitch pushing things down the line so he can take up some of Biden's time and see what other information comes out on this attack.
That rule requires unanimity of the Senators, IIRC.  Otherwise, they can not rule on anything.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 15, 2021, 07:33:05 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 04:54:56 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 14, 2021, 12:19:34 AM
There's an emergency Senate rule that allows the Senate to be immediately called into session if the Majority and Minority leader agree. This is just Mitch pushing things down the line so he can take up some of Biden's time and see what other information comes out on this attack.
That rule requires unanimity of the Senators, IIRC.  Otherwise, they can not rule on anything.

I don't believe that this is true - the Senate is in recess, not between sessions.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 15, 2021, 07:33:53 PM
Jeff or regular?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 15, 2021, 07:45:28 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 15, 2021, 07:33:53 PM
Jeff or regular?

Yes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 08:06:56 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 15, 2021, 07:33:05 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 04:54:56 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 14, 2021, 12:19:34 AM
There's an emergency Senate rule that allows the Senate to be immediately called into session if the Majority and Minority leader agree. This is just Mitch pushing things down the line so he can take up some of Biden's time and see what other information comes out on this attack.
That rule requires unanimity of the Senators, IIRC.  Otherwise, they can not rule on anything.

I don't believe that this is true - the Senate is in recess, not between sessions.
In a memo a few days ago to Republican senators, McConnell had suggested the trial wouldn't start until Biden becomes president, saying all 100 senators would need to consent to change the Senate's schedule. He indicated that the earliest the Senate could take up any House-passed articles of impeachment against Trump would most likely be right after his term ends

I have no idea if it is true or not, but that's what he said.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 15, 2021, 08:25:45 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 08:06:56 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 15, 2021, 07:33:05 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 15, 2021, 04:54:56 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 14, 2021, 12:19:34 AM
There's an emergency Senate rule that allows the Senate to be immediately called into session if the Majority and Minority leader agree. This is just Mitch pushing things down the line so he can take up some of Biden's time and see what other information comes out on this attack.
That rule requires unanimity of the Senators, IIRC.  Otherwise, they can not rule on anything.

I don't believe that this is true - the Senate is in recess, not between sessions.
In a memo a few days ago to Republican senators, McConnell had suggested the trial wouldn't start until Biden becomes president, saying all 100 senators would need to consent to change the Senate's schedule. He indicated that the earliest the Senate could take up any House-passed articles of impeachment against Trump would most likely be right after his term ends

I have no idea if it is true or not, but that's what he said.

I think that what he is saying is that the Senators who don't want to come back will deny the Senate a quorum.  It would be almost impossible to enforce a quorum in the few days allowed, and Senators wouldn't want a quorum to be established in the absence of a large portion of their own caucus, so they'd not show up for a special session unless they knew everyone in their caucus was going to.

The emergency action provision mentioned by Schumer would bypass this by requiring Senators to return to the chamber.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 18, 2021, 04:23:44 PM
Ah.  Not what I thought it was.  Thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 19, 2021, 03:40:27 PM
Apparently tomorrow Mike Pence will attend Biden's inauguration, but will skip Trump's send-off, saying attending both would be "logistically challenging".

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1351584529652322310
(WaPo's White House reporter)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on January 19, 2021, 04:18:46 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 19, 2021, 03:40:27 PM
Apparently tomorrow Mike Pence will attend Biden's inauguration, but will skip Trump's send-off, saying attending both would be "logistically challenging".

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1351584529652322310
(WaPo's White House reporter)
I'll bet it would be.  The logistics of not smashing someone who near got you and your family killed by a coked up mob would be more than most could overcome.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on January 19, 2021, 05:38:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.


I think there might be genuine disgust on Pence's part.  He's been the loyal lackey this whole time and all it got him was a band of crazy people who tried to lynch him.

He is now the best example of a politician who gave himself entirely over to Trump and got nothing in return.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:51:21 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 19, 2021, 05:38:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.


I think there might be genuine disgust on Pence's part.  He's been the loyal lackey this whole time and all it got him was a band of crazy people who tried to lynch him.

He is now the best example of a politician who gave himself entirely over to Trump and got nothing in return.

He got exactly what he was supposed to get. Ain't nothing ever as good as we want it to be.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 19, 2021, 05:54:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 19, 2021, 05:38:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.


I think there might be genuine disgust on Pence's part.  He's been the loyal lackey this whole time and all it got him was a band of crazy people who tried to lynch him.

He is now the best example of a politician who gave himself entirely over to Trump and got nothing in return.

He rode that Trump train almost all the way to the end, suffering any end of indignities in order to assure there was no daylight between him and Trump, but at the last hour found something that even he couldn't do - a blatantly unconstitutional move to refuse to count electoral votes awarded to Biden.

And in exchange he gets death threats and is excommunicated from Trumpworld.

We should of course be grateful that he did so and make some level of "room" for ex-Trump officials who did break from Trump, no matter how late.  But we should never forget the preceeding 5 years either.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 19, 2021, 08:22:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 19, 2021, 05:54:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 19, 2021, 05:38:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.


I think there might be genuine disgust on Pence's part.  He's been the loyal lackey this whole time and all it got him was a band of crazy people who tried to lynch him.

He is now the best example of a politician who gave himself entirely over to Trump and got nothing in return.

He rode that Trump train almost all the way to the end, suffering any end of indignities in order to assure there was no daylight between him and Trump, but at the last hour found something that even he couldn't do - a blatantly unconstitutional move to refuse to count electoral votes awarded to Biden.

And in exchange he gets death threats and is excommunicated from Trumpworld.

We should of course be grateful that he did so and make some level of "room" for ex-Trump officials who did break from Trump, no matter how late.  But we should never forget the preceeding 5 years either.
he did ask for different legal advices first.  At least two.  It's not like he didn't entertain the thought.  I wouldn't sing his praise just because he's been backstabed by Trump
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 07:44:38 AM
It has been reported that Biden will sign 17 executive orders as soon as he's sworn in. Amongst those orders there'll be the following:

- Rejoining the WHO.
- Rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Blocking the funding for the construction of the border wall.
- Repealing the travel ban from a number of majority muslim countries.
- Allowing "Dreamers" to stay in the US.

A new Covid taskforce will probably be announced early next week.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 07:46:31 AM
Geez. Pick a lane.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 07:46:48 AM
Also that he's going to sign up to Covax which will be huge news in distributing to many developing countries (and I really think it's morally wrong but also practically stupid to have very slow roll-out of the vaccine in the developing world).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 07:55:14 AM
Other measures that will be passed in the early days of the Biden presidency (no idea if as part of the 17 exec. orders or otherwise):

- Eviction moratorium until the end of March.
- Moratorium on the payment of school loans until the end of September
- Mandatory use of face masks and social distancing in federal buildings for 100 days.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 07:58:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 07:55:14 AM
- Mandatory use of face masks and social distancing in federal buildings for 100 days.

Even for intruders?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 08:03:37 AM
A more comprehensive list:

QuotePresident-elect Joe Biden plans  to sign 17 executive actions today in the Oval Office including:

-National mask mandate
-Establish a WH COVID-19 team
-Cease withdrawal from WHO
-Restore national security pandemics office
-Extend pause on student loan payments and interest
-Rejoin Paris Climate Agreement
-Government agency review focused on equity
-Extend federal eviction moratorium
-Rescind Census orders to exclude non-citizens
-Preserve and fortify DACA
-Revoke Muslim ban
-Rescind 1776 commission
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on January 20, 2021, 08:21:58 AM
Not bad for a first day on the job.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:35:34 AM
America really is the world leader in marching band songs.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:41:42 AM
Dick Turpin is at the ceremony? Or did I mishear?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 20, 2021, 10:42:05 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:35:34 AM
America really is the world leader in marching band songs.

Gotta keep the Nazis a distant second.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:44:19 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 20, 2021, 10:42:05 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:35:34 AM
America really is the world leader in marching band songs.

Gotta keep the Nazis a distant second.
American marching band songs are notably more jaunty :lol:

It's a really uniquely American/turn of the century sound. You even get it on things like the West Wing - I don't know what the equivalent musical cue would be in the UK.

Edit: It must be kind of crap being Dan Quayle and 30 years later still just survive as a punchline. Wonder why Al Gore isn't attending? :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:46:15 AM
Remember when Dan Quayle was a joke? :wub:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 20, 2021, 10:47:13 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:44:19 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 20, 2021, 10:42:05 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:35:34 AM
America really is the world leader in marching band songs.

Gotta keep the Nazis a distant second.
American marching band songs are notably more jaunty :lol:

It's a really uniquely American/turn of the century sound. You even get it on things like the West Wing - I don't know what the equivalent musical cue would be in the UK.

I was looking at Sousa's wiki page as an aside reading for this post, and it compares him to a Kenneth J. Alford, the "British March King'.  Though I think Sousa probably eclipsed him in overall fame/notoriety.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on January 20, 2021, 10:49:25 AM
Dan Quayle, VP from over 30 years ago, is younger than both Trump and Biden.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:52:17 AM
I assume there has been a good handover from Trump's people to Biden's people?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 10:52:42 AM
I can't get use to the way Washington DC looks like in winter.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on January 20, 2021, 10:53:32 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:52:17 AM
I assume there has been a good handover from Trump's people to Biden's people?
Probably very few turds left in the water tanks of the WH toilets.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:53:50 AM
Crowd doesn't look that impressive.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 10:52:42 AM
I can't get use to the way Washington DC looks like in winter.
:hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 10:54:45 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 20, 2021, 10:47:13 AM
I was looking at Sousa's wiki page as an aside reading for this post, and it compares him to a Kenneth J. Alford, the "British March King'.  Though I think Sousa probably eclipsed him in overall fame/notoriety.
Huh :hmmm:

Sousa has definitely eclipsed him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 10:55:11 AM
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 10:52:42 AM
I can't get use to the way Washington DC looks like in winter.
:hmm:

Everyone is wearing winter clothes, even tuques for some, but it looks so warm. (And usually is).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on January 20, 2021, 10:56:28 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 19, 2021, 05:51:21 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 19, 2021, 05:38:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 19, 2021, 04:24:43 PM
Also, Pence is trying to rehabilitate his reputation now, so going to Trump's bullshit thing isn't the smartest way to go about doing that.


I think there might be genuine disgust on Pence's part.  He's been the loyal lackey this whole time and all it got him was a band of crazy people who tried to lynch him.

He is now the best example of a politician who gave himself entirely over to Trump and got nothing in return.

He got exactly what he was supposed to get. Ain't nothing ever as good as we want it to be.
To paraphrase Spock, "having is not the same as wanting." Good point. He should have realized what was going to be the endgame. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 10:59:44 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:52:17 AM
I assume there has been a good handover from Trump's people to Biden's people?

Live shot of the handover

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82RIfy-gRa4
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:00:06 AM
Who's that lady I saw Pence with?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:00:17 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:53:50 AM
Crowd doesn't look that impressive.
Definitely low energy crowd, far cry from two weeks ago.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:01:21 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 10:59:44 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:52:17 AM
I assume there has been a good handover from Trump's people to Biden's people?

Live shot of the handover

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82RIfy-gRa4

Looks good, but I don't really know baseball.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 11:09:18 AM
Who are the 3 Hot wearing Pink, Beige & White girls?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 11:11:16 AM
Pete Buttigieg's hair really is a disgrace on a man of his age <_<
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on January 20, 2021, 11:17:59 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 11:11:16 AM
Pete Buttigieg's hair really is a disgrace on a man of his age <_<

Why exactly?

*takes notes*
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:25:26 AM
What's with the speeches. Sheesh.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 11:26:34 AM
:lol: It's just the haircut I had as a kid and all my friends had.

I feel like by the time you're in your thirties you should have some specific hairstyle you're going for - whether it's side-parting and short back and sides, or buzz-cut, or man-bun.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 11:36:13 AM
Bernie looks comfy.  :lol:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsMF4ZaW8AQyjCf?format=png&name=900x900)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 20, 2021, 11:37:39 AM
Gaga's badge has Hunger Games vibes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:37:48 AM
It's Enrico Pallazzo!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:46:59 AM
OMG Karens will go nuts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 11:48:07 AM
From mainstream Catholic Twitter:
QuoteMichael Peppard
@MichaelPeppard
Kennedy: don't be scared of us Catholics

Biden: light these candles, join me at Mass, and also here's a priest quoting the Pope at the inauguration
:lol:

The fact he also quoted the kitschest/naffest Catholic hymn which I've heard at numerous funerals in his victory speech adds to this.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:54:21 AM
So Trump's nuclear codes are deactivated now, right? :unsure: Or are they still good for 6 minutes?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 11:58:35 AM
Comparing himself to Lincoln. Nice that he opts for some continuity from the previous administration.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 11:59:10 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:54:21 AM
So Trump's nuclear codes are deactivated now, right? :unsure: Or are they still good for 6 minutes?

They are(were) still good but the Marine is in the bathroom.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 20, 2021, 11:59:54 AM
Biden is really putting the boot into the Trumpies :D
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 20, 2021, 12:12:38 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 11:59:10 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:54:21 AM
So Trump's nuclear codes are deactivated now, right? :unsure: Or are they still good for 6 minutes?

They are(were) still good but the Marine is in the bathroom.

Weirdly, he was in there since early January.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 12:24:17 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 20, 2021, 12:12:38 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 11:59:10 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:54:21 AM
So Trump's nuclear codes are deactivated now, right? :unsure: Or are they still good for 6 minutes?

They are(were) still good but the Marine is in the bathroom.

Weirdly, he was in there since early January.
I'd be shitting bricks non-stop as well in his place.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 12:30:44 PM
Wait, Q said that everyone at the inauguration was going to get arrested and that Trump's plane was going back to DC????? What is happening???????
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:31:11 PM
Q who?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 12:32:53 PM
Suddenly I feel a great weight lifted
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 12:34:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 12:32:53 PM
Suddenly I feel a great weight lifted
Is this still about your haircut? :unsure:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:34:37 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 12:32:53 PM
Suddenly I feel a great weight lifted

Nice. I have been very regular lately. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 12:40:21 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 12:30:44 PM
Wait, Q said that everyone at the inauguration was going to get arrested and that Trump's plane was going back to DC????? What is happening???????
Seeing some screenshots of the Q forums and group chats. Going about as well as you'd expect :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:41:51 PM
People are gushing online about the poetry reading section of the inauguration. Did anyone here catch it?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 12:42:57 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:41:51 PM
People are gushing online about the poetry reading section of the inauguration. Did anyone here catch it?
Yeah - she was very good.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 20, 2021, 12:48:07 PM
(https://preview.redd.it/bj5dy1p72ic61.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=719c3a8cb9fac40b46c8d917a9dbdc072f569f2c)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 12:48:47 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 12:50:24 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 12:30:44 PM
Wait, Q said that everyone at the inauguration was going to get arrested and that Trump's plane was going back to DC????? What is happening???????

Don't worry, it's all part of the plan.

(https://forumcontent.paradoxplaza.com/public/660400/1611155380787.png)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:50:31 PM
Well, Maya Rudolph is the official Kamala Harris impersonator at SNL, so it's close enough.  :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 20, 2021, 12:52:04 PM
https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1351934178493935620?s=20

QuoteMark Leggiero is the one lone Trump supporter out in front of the NYS Capitol. He says he expected a few thousand ppl here and is disappointed. He said he drove 45 minutes for a peaceful protest

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsMI90wXYAI4eb_?format=jpg&name=small)

:(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:53:41 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 12:50:24 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 12:30:44 PM
Wait, Q said that everyone at the inauguration was going to get arrested and that Trump's plane was going back to DC????? What is happening???????

Don't worry, it's all part of the plan.

(https://forumcontent.paradoxplaza.com/public/660400/1611155380787.png)

Onoda Hiroo would be proud. :cry:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 12:55:24 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 20, 2021, 12:52:04 PM
https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1351934178493935620?s=20

QuoteMark Leggiero is the one lone Trump supporter out in front of the NYS Capitol. He says he expected a few thousand ppl here and is disappointed. He said he drove 45 minutes for a peaceful protest

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsMI90wXYAI4eb_?format=jpg&name=small)

:(
It is peaceful, I'll give them him that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:56:14 PM
LOL trick of the camera angle. The crowd is a lot denser.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 12:57:29 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:41:51 PM
People are gushing online about the poetry reading section of the inauguration. Did anyone here catch it?
Shit didn't rhyme. :mad:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:58:32 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 12:57:29 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:41:51 PM
People are gushing online about the poetry reading section of the inauguration. Did anyone here catch it?
Shit didn't rhyme. :mad:

I'm surprised the word was used at all.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 01:00:01 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 12:58:32 PM
I'm surprised the word was used at all.
MERICA  :cool:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on January 20, 2021, 01:02:15 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 11:26:34 AM
:lol: It's just the haircut I had as a kid and all my friends had.

I feel like by the time you're in your thirties you should have some specific hairstyle you're going for - whether it's side-parting and short back and sides, or buzz-cut, or man-bun.

Mine is somewhat similar, if not nearly as neatly kept.
And I've started combing it increasingly sideways to cover the impeding chasm.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 01:15:26 PM
How long will it take to search the White House for Russian bugs?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 01:16:27 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 12:42:57 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 20, 2021, 12:41:51 PM
People are gushing online about the poetry reading section of the inauguration. Did anyone here catch it?
Yeah - she was very good.

Agreed, at points I would say brilliant.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on January 20, 2021, 01:30:28 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 01:15:26 PM
How long will it take to search the White House for Russian bugs?

I didn't get the impression they needed bugs.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 01:32:56 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 01:15:26 PM
How long will it take to search the White House for Russian bugs?

He left for Florida this morning.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 01:32:56 PM
He left for Florida this morning.
:lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 01:42:40 PM
Quote from: Maladict on January 20, 2021, 01:30:28 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 01:15:26 PM
How long will it take to search the White House for Russian bugs?

I didn't get the impression they needed bugs.

Not under Trump. Biden is president now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 02:11:08 PM
I've always loved the pageantry of presidential inaugurations. Nothing else quite like it in American ceremonies.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 02:18:42 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 02:11:08 PM
I've always loved the pageantry of presidential inaugurations. Nothing else quite like it in American ceremonies.
I love them even if some of it is a little absurd. They are very unique - the only natural habitat of those Sousa marches.

British Twitter always splits in two between people who wish we had something similar/a setting where the PM could set out their vision and people who are very glad that when we remove elected leaders you know because a delivery van turns up outside Downing Street :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:25:27 PM
I personally like it too, but then I imagine it transposed to Spain or Catalonia and I kinda squirm in disgust.  :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 02:26:32 PM
We haven't had a change of head of state in Sweden in my lifetime.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 02:30:03 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:25:27 PM
I personally like it too, but then I imagine it transposed to Spain or Catalonia and I kinda squirm in disgust.  :hmm:
Yeah. It's republican paegentry which I love - same goes for France. But add it to a monarchy and it's just weird and why is a politician saluting the military marching band :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 20, 2021, 02:42:37 PM
In Germany we don't really do much pageantry around politicians anymore -_-
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:47:44 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 02:30:03 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 20, 2021, 02:25:27 PM
I personally like it too, but then I imagine it transposed to Spain or Catalonia and I kinda squirm in disgust.  :hmm:
Yeah. It's republican paegentry which I love - same goes for France. But add it to a monarchy and it's just weird and why is a politician saluting the military marching band :lol:

I guess I'm just more on the "moving van pulling up" crowd, and I just watch the yanks doing their yankness like I was watching sleazy porn :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 02:49:35 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.

Even when our actual military was five guys in a fort in Kansas we still had big military parades for it. It is just part of the tradition for some reason.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 02:57:31 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.
I think there's a military march but that's it in terms of normal inaugurations - the visit to Arlington etc I think are Biden's choices.

And there is a degree to which that makes sense - new Commander in Chief etc. There'll be a pretty heavy military side (processions etc) at the Queen's funeral and new coronation here.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:00:04 PM
Queen? Funeral? :unsure:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 20, 2021, 03:02:51 PM
Officer Goodman, the Capitol police officer who lured the mob away from the Senate chamber, was made acting Deputy Senate Sergeant-at-Arms and given a role in the inauguration. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 03:10:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:00:04 PM
Queen? Funeral? :unsure:
Codename - "London Bridge is down":
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

I found the piece weirdly fascinating.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on January 20, 2021, 03:11:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.


Didn't notice that before, but yeah I think you have a point.  We need to cut back on that stuff.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:15:11 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 03:10:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:00:04 PM
Queen? Funeral? :unsure:
Codename - "London Bridge is down":
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

I found the piece weirdly fascinating.

I am having a hard time believing Elizabeth Windsor will ever die. She is the Lich Queen. Clearly the British Public agrees with me  :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 03:29:05 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 20, 2021, 03:11:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.


Didn't notice that before, but yeah I think you have a point.  We need to cut back on that stuff.
For me personally the eye-opener was when I went to see a NASCAR race in Pocono about ten years ago.  The pre-race ceremonies for a fucking NASCAR race looked like a Victory Day parade on Red Square.  I found it creepy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 03:37:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.

Well we're basically electing a monarch for 4 years so that's par for the course. What is actually disturbing is the amount of militarism in normal American life.

Military parades are fine and proper for inaugurating heads of state imo.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 03:40:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 03:29:05 PMFor me personally the eye-opener was when I went to see a NASCAR race in Pocono about ten years ago.  The pre-race ceremonies for a fucking NASCAR race looked like a Victory Day parade on Red Square.  I found it creepy.
Yeah - this is the bit I find a bit weird. The military at private things like sporting events etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on January 20, 2021, 03:53:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.

You can really tell that the US has not been thoroughly whipped and near-destroyed in a war like the Europeans. We have beaten this jingoist nonsense out of each other during the 20th century.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 20, 2021, 04:02:57 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?

Traditionally fuck no.
There is a creeping tendency for such though.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 04:10:18 PM
Please let this thread remain boring as hell for the next four years ...
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 04:13:05 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 04:10:18 PM
Please let this thread remain boring as hell for the next four years ...
Early indications are good:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsImMitW8AUFkEq?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 04:27:28 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?

Actually it is the military that paid the NFL.  And when that came to light, the NFL repaid the money.  It seems the practice has now stopped.

Don't know about NASCAR

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 04:30:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?
:lol: Probably not the best game for that sort of thing. But no. You might get a military marching band at like FA Cup final or national team games and a few soldiers when its remembrance day but I feel like that's about it?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 04:32:50 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 04:10:18 PM
Please let this thread remain boring as hell for the next four years ...
Sorry we couldn't keep you entertained, sir.  :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 04:35:15 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 04:27:28 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?

Actually it is the military that paid the NFL.  And when that came to light, the NFL repaid the money.  It seems the practice has now stopped.

Don't know about NASCAR



Ah. Wow I clearly got that backwards.

But the NFL, at least before all the knee-taking started, was huge in playing the patriotic "we love the military" card as much as possible. Things might be different now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 04:40:17 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 04:35:15 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 04:27:28 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 03:53:25 PM
The military is popular. NASCAR and the NFL pay them to show up and perform at their events. Does the RAF not fly over and parachute into Everton-Liverpool matches?

Actually it is the military that paid the NFL.  And when that came to light, the NFL repaid the money.  It seems the practice has now stopped.

Don't know about NASCAR



Ah. Wow I clearly got that backwards.

But the NFL, at least before all the knee-taking started, was huge in playing the patriotic "we love the military" card as much as possible. Things might be different now.

Yes, but it was paid patriotism - ie the NFL was getting paid to showcase the military they way they did. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 04:44:45 PM
Fuck. Our tax dollars at work.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 04:51:46 PM
Hope people can see this without a subscription.

The poet - amazing

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/us/who-is-amanda-gorman-poet-inauguration.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2021, 04:56:10 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 20, 2021, 03:53:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
Never paid attention to the pageantry of US inaugurations before.  A lot of militarism involved.

You can really tell that the US has not been thoroughly whipped and near-destroyed in a war like the Europeans. We have beaten this jingoist nonsense out of each other during the 20th century.

Hmm that's not exactly the vibe I get from the Hungarian politics thread.  Seems like Trianon revisionism is more in vogue these days than light balling.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on January 20, 2021, 04:57:45 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2021, 04:56:10 PM
Hmm that's not exactly the vibe I get from the Hungarian politics thread.  Seems like Trianon revisionism is more in vogue these days than light balling.

They're trying to be heavy ballers?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: HVC on January 20, 2021, 04:59:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 04:44:45 PM
Fuck. Our tax dollars at work.

Recruiting budget no doubt :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2021, 05:00:43 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2021, 04:13:05 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 04:10:18 PM
Please let this thread remain boring as hell for the next four years ...
Early indications are good:

He has the Amtrak branded Peloton.
You can take rides through Youngstown and downtown Sheboygan.   The trainer is Jack LaLanne and the music is all from the Lawrence Welk band.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 05:03:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 04:32:50 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 20, 2021, 04:10:18 PM
Please let this thread remain boring as hell for the next four years ...
Sorry we couldn't keep you entertained, sir.  :(

I want to be bored! 😄
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on January 20, 2021, 05:35:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 11:00:17 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 20, 2021, 10:53:50 AM
Crowd doesn't look that impressive.
Definitely low energy crowd, far cry from two weeks ago.

:lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on January 20, 2021, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 20, 2021, 03:53:51 PM
You can really tell that the US has not been thoroughly whipped and near-destroyed in a war like the Europeans. We have beaten this jingoist nonsense out of each other during the 20th century.

Wish it had stuck in Russia.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 20, 2021, 08:15:00 PM
This is the longest the President of the US has gone without doing something stupid in the last four years.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 09:06:29 PM
During dinner I was telling Emily a story while we were listening to NPR.  Then Biden came on and I said "Hang on, I want to hear The President's speech here."  Felt good.  I have not said "The President" like that since 2017.  I refused to address Trump as President.  Most people didn't notice, but I don't care. :sleep:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 09:12:31 PM
It is weird not having a narcissistic reality TV star as my president for the first time since 2017.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 09:20:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 09:12:31 PM
It is weird not having a narcissistic reality TV star as my president for the first time since 2017.
Yeah.  You have a good man as President now (not to mention, an amazingly qualified one).  I was lucky enough to grow up in PA and saw quite a bit of Biden on TV (I mean, Wilmington is basically a neighborhood of Philly).  Biden will do this country proud.  Trust me. :cool:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2021, 10:08:28 PM
Did Trump end up getting his glorious military sendoff?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 10:08:52 PM
So they spent all the money they couldn't spend on inaugural balls on the fireworks because holy hell that was a lot of fireworks.  :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 20, 2021, 10:14:53 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on January 20, 2021, 10:08:52 PM
So they spent all the money they couldn't spend on inaugural balls on the fireworks because holy hell that was a lot of fireworks.  :lol:

Yeah I saw that :lol:

At least it did not spell "BIDEN 2020" across the sky.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 20, 2021, 10:15:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2021, 10:08:28 PM
Did Trump end up getting his glorious military sendoff?
I think I read that he did end up getting the 21 gun salute he asked for and totally did not deserve. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 20, 2021, 10:28:57 PM
Right now, I do not know what the President of the USA did tonight.

It is so refreshing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 04:33:31 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-cVf53pFcM

Anti-Biden loonie left protests in Portland.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 21, 2021, 04:40:49 AM
:tinfoil:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on January 21, 2021, 04:45:54 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 20, 2021, 02:42:37 PM
In Germany we don't really do much pageantry around politicians anymore -_-

Yeah, it was too campy anyway.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 21, 2021, 08:27:36 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsM_cjTVgAAW69M?format=jpg&name=small)

(The episode aired March 2000.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_to_the_Future
QuoteThe episode mentions that real estate mogul Donald Trump became president, and caused a budget crisis that Lisa inherits. In 2015, news media cited the episode as a foreshadowing of Trump's future run for president;[16] the episode was produced during Trump's 2000 third-party run. Dan Greaney told The Hollywood Reporter in a 2016 interview that the thought of a Trump presidency at the time "just seemed like the logical last stop before hitting bottom. It was pitched because it was consistent with the vision of America going insane."[17] In an interview with TMZ in May 2016, Matt Groening said he thought it was unlikely that Donald Trump would become the president of the United States.[18]

On November 8, 2016, Trump was elected as the 45th president of the United States.[19][20] Four days later, in the opening credits of the episode "Havana Wild Weekend", aired on November 13, 2016, Bart writes "Being right sucks" as the chalkboard gag.[21]

Scenes from a 2015 Simpsons YouTube post "Trumptastic Voyage" (which references real-life scenes of Donald Trump around that time) have been mistakenly identified as those from "Bart to the Future".[22]

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on January 21, 2021, 10:55:19 AM
Anyone know who the 'Sanitiser-in-chief' was during yesterday's ceremony.

Quote
Sanitiser-in-chief' takes social media by storm

Forget the almost life-size Lady Gaga dove brooch and barnstorming tunes of Katy Perry et al, one guy has been drawing the awe of social media by just doing a normal job, diligently and repetitively.

The grey-haired, masked and scarfed destroyer of all things Covid made more appearances than the VIPs - dutifully wiping down the podium after each speaker.

Some have called for him to be put in charge of the vaccine rollout.

Remarkably, his name doesn't seem to be out there in the cyber ether yet either.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on January 21, 2021, 10:56:45 AM
It was a pretty shitty episode as well.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on January 21, 2021, 11:08:23 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/484150492520382484/801613534596825099/bernie_and_keanu.jpg)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 21, 2021, 11:21:50 AM
Why would someone put on their mask so crooked? :bleeding: He can always use a mirror if he has such a hard time feeling out the center by feel.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 11:22:49 AM
He tilts left in all things, DG.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:05:19 PM
So, Biden is starting to reverse the Trump legacy, just as Trump was trying to reverse the Obama legacy. Which Republican will try to reverse the Biden legacy?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on January 21, 2021, 12:09:40 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:05:19 PM
So, Biden is starting to reverse the Trump legacy, just as Trump was trying to reverse the Obama legacy. Which Republican will try to reverse the Biden legacy?

Ivanka.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 21, 2021, 12:10:16 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 21, 2021, 12:09:40 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:05:19 PM
So, Biden is starting to reverse the Trump legacy, just as Trump was trying to reverse the Obama legacy. Which Republican will try to reverse the Biden legacy?

Ivanka.

There is no chance in hell Ivanka is ever President.

Don Jr, on the other hand...
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:12:43 PM
I do find it problematic, though, when successive governments of opposing parties primarily try to revert what their predecessors did. Some of it is natural, due to opposing policies, but for Trump it seemed to be a staple, and obviously the Democrats want to undo his damage. I expect, though, that the next time the Rs have the power again, they will try to re-undo things.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 12:32:34 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:12:43 PM
I do find it problematic, though, when successive governments of opposing parties primarily try to revert what their predecessors did. Some of it is natural, due to opposing policies, but for Trump it seemed to be a staple, and obviously the Democrats want to undo his damage. I expect, though, that the next time the Rs have the power again, they will try to re-undo things.
So I don't mind it in theory because as you say it's partly in the nature of elections in a two party system. I think the bigger issue is that because Congress hasn't worked for some time a lot of the agenda of both parties is being implemented as far as possible by the executive. Whether that's lots of executive orders or the Paris Agreement being deliberately drafted in a way to avoid the Senate ratification requirements.

For some reason it feels okay for me to try and overturn, say, Obamacare. But it's more problematic that the lives of so many people because of their immigration status can be based on executive orders and that they'll just ping-pong on this - same for climate.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on January 21, 2021, 01:08:28 PM
I think there isn't an equivalence between Trump's trashing of US institutions or international involvements and most of Biden's new executive orders, it's not a ping-pong situation where those are two opposing sides either side of a balanced middle.

Trump was an extremist, exiting WHO, something the US had a major hand in setting up and funding was a hollow domestic political act, no other US administration had ever planned on leaving it.

Similarly leaving the open skies treaty was just wanton vandalism, damaging US national security by losing access to a useful set of international protocols.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 21, 2021, 01:10:10 PM
Relax. A generation from now the US may have built a reputation for stability again.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 01:14:39 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 21, 2021, 08:27:36 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsM_cjTVgAAW69M?format=jpg&name=small)

(The episode aired March 2000.)

(https://imagenes.20minutos.es/files/image_656_370/files/fp/uploads/imagenes/2021/01/21/kamala-harris-y-lisa-simpson.r_d.513-261.jpeg)

:ph34r:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 21, 2021, 01:17:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 12:32:34 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 21, 2021, 12:12:43 PM
I do find it problematic, though, when successive governments of opposing parties primarily try to revert what their predecessors did. Some of it is natural, due to opposing policies, but for Trump it seemed to be a staple, and obviously the Democrats want to undo his damage. I expect, though, that the next time the Rs have the power again, they will try to re-undo things.
So I don't mind it in theory because as you say it's partly in the nature of elections in a two party system. I think the bigger issue is that because Congress hasn't worked for some time a lot of the agenda of both parties is being implemented as far as possible by the executive. Whether that's lots of executive orders or the Paris Agreement being deliberately drafted in a way to avoid the Senate ratification requirements.

For some reason it feels okay for me to try and overturn, say, Obamacare. But it's more problematic that the lives of so many people because of their immigration status can be based on executive orders and that they'll just ping-pong on this - same for climate.


It all revolves again back to Moscow Mitch & the abortion issue.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 21, 2021, 01:19:00 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 01:14:39 PM
:ph34r:

:lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 21, 2021, 01:33:38 PM
Wow. That is pretty close.
Wonder if she did it on purpose?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on January 21, 2021, 01:36:05 PM
Hopefully the QAnon people don't see that post. :ph34r:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 01:44:27 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 21, 2021, 01:08:28 PM
I think there isn't an equivalence between Trump's trashing of US institutions or international involvements and most of Biden's new executive orders, it's not a ping-pong situation where those are two opposing sides either side of a balanced middle.
I'm not saying there's a balanced middle but because these things are done by executive orders they're easy "wins" for both sides to overturn their opponent's achievements. So it seems likely to me that the next Republican administration will pull out of the Paris Agreement, I wouldn't be surprised if they pissed about with DACA again.

QuoteTrump was an extremist, exiting WHO, something the US had a major hand in setting up and funding was a hollow domestic political act, no other US administration had ever planned on leaving it.
I swear multiple Republicans have over the years said that the US should leave the UN? I'm not convinced Trump's foreign policy stuff (which was less damaging than I expected) is actually that far from other Republicans. I'm not convinced that Trump is actually an extremist compared to the GOP - that's the bigger issue and they will win the White House again.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 01:46:19 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 21, 2021, 01:33:38 PM
Wow. That is pretty close.
Wonder if she did it on purpose?

If you are interested, there is a great article in the NYTimes about the fashion choices and the reasons they were made. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 02:01:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 01:44:27 PM
I swear multiple Republicans have over the years said that the US should leave the UN? I'm not convinced Trump's foreign policy stuff (which was less damaging than I expected) is actually that far from other Republicans. I'm not convinced that Trump is actually an extremist compared to the GOP - that's the bigger issue and they will win the White House again.

There is a long history of anti-UN sentiment in the modern Republican Party, and there was precedent in Reagan's withdrawal from UNESCO, which Trump also withdrew from.  That's not the same thing as withdrawing from WHO however, which is a much bigger deal and more obviously counterproductive.

Trump's views and policies on trade and immigration were definitely outside the GOP mainstream, although not *too* far outside - it is basically the old Buchanan program which did attract a non-insignificant number of the GOP voters.  It was surprising how quickly the mainstream party rolled over on these issues and how the policy debates play out on those issues may be the key to understanding how the post 2020 GOP will evolve.  The immediate attacks Biden is getting now from usual media suspects seem to focus heavily on immigration - it will be interesting to see if that remains the main focus or attack.  A GOP that realigns permanently as a hardline anti-immigration party would mark a significant break from postwar party - essentially a belated victory of the deviant Buchanan/Pete Wilson wing over the long dominant Reagan-Bush-McCain wing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 02:36:49 PM
I just hope Biden notices how aggressively deporting people on an unprecedented scale did little to counter the charge that Obama was pro-open borders. What you actually do as President doesn't really matter, it is always about what you represent.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 02:59:45 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29O2PE

QuoteBiden will recognize Guaido as Venezuela's leader, top diplomat says

By Reuters Staff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration will continue to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the South American country's president, Anthony Blinken, Biden's nominee for secretary of state, said on Tuesday.

Blinken told members of the U.S. Senate that Biden would seek to "more effectively target" sanctions on the country, which aim to oust President Nicolas Maduro - who retains control of the country. Blinken said the new administration would look at more humanitarian assistance to the country.

Fuck. Can we stop this? I mean I get that Maduro sucks but he just sucks for Venezuela. He poses no threat to us and there are plenty of other terrible regimes out there. Why are we still doing these regime change conflicts? I am so frustrated about this.


Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 03:14:49 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 02:36:49 PM
I just hope Biden notices how aggressively deporting people on an unprecedented scale did little to counter the charge that Obama was pro-open borders. What you actually do as President doesn't really matter, it is always about what you represent.
But also what you present, no? Did Obama want to give the impression that he was aggressively deporting people?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 21, 2021, 03:15:32 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 02:59:45 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29O2PE

QuoteBiden will recognize Guaido as Venezuela's leader, top diplomat says

By Reuters Staff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration will continue to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the South American country's president, Anthony Blinken, Biden's nominee for secretary of state, said on Tuesday.

Blinken told members of the U.S. Senate that Biden would seek to "more effectively target" sanctions on the country, which aim to oust President Nicolas Maduro - who retains control of the country. Blinken said the new administration would look at more humanitarian assistance to the country.

Fuck. Can we stop this? I mean I get that Maduro sucks but he just sucks for Venezuela. He poses no threat to us and there are plenty of other terrible regimes out there. Why are we still doing these regime change conflicts? I am so frustrated about this.

But this one makes (or at least made) sense.

Back in 2019 there was a real groundswell in Venezuela against the Maduro regime.  The recently held Presidential elections were largely seen as illegitimate, so Guaido stepped up and said under the Constitution he was then interim President until free and fair elections could be held.  There was thought that the protests on the streets, combined with international pressure (by governments recognizing Guaido as President) could spur a change.

Over 50 governments recognize Guaido as President.

Of course in the end... it didn't work.  BUt the Maduro government has done nothing since then to warrant the reward of US recognition.  It's not like there was meaningful diplomacy going on between the two governments in any event.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 21, 2021, 03:32:38 PM
Being recognized as the leader of a country that you are obviously the leader of shouldn't be viewed as a "reward".  That said, what is happening in Venezuela is a humanitarian catastrophe, and I'm not sure that having a failed state in that area is in our interest.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on January 21, 2021, 03:37:03 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 21, 2021, 03:32:38 PM
Being recognized as the leader of a country that you are obviously the leader of shouldn't be viewed as a "reward".  That said, what is happening in Venezuela is a humanitarian catastrophe, and I'm not sure that having a failed state in that area is in our interest.

There's all kinds of these situations though.  US never recognized the USSR's annexation of the Baltics, for example.  US right now does not recognize Taiwan (though the two do have a deep relationship).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 21, 2021, 03:42:24 PM
In any case, regardless of who we recognize, I think Venezuela is a textbook case of an intervention for humanitarian reasons being warranted.  The country is being turned into a wasteland by an extremely unpopular leader who by now must be holding on to power by authoritarian means, with the aid of the Axis of Authoritarians.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 04:14:05 PM
Venezuela used to be a functioning state; it's not a basket case like Syria. I don't think it's a great idea for the US to just neglect a failed state in the region - eventually those problems will becomes US problems one way or another.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 04:19:01 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 04:14:05 PM
Venezuela used to be a functioning state; it's not a basket case like Syria. I don't think it's a great idea for the US to just neglect a failed state in the region - eventually those problems will becomes US problems one way or another.

They already are US problems. Look how many Venezuelans in the US voted for Trump.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 21, 2021, 04:33:15 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 04:14:05 PM
Venezuela used to be a functioning state; it's not a basket case like Syria. I don't think it's a great idea for the US to just neglect a failed state in the region - eventually those problems will becomes US problems one way or another.
BTW, is Monroe Doctrine still in use, officially?  Or has it been discarded?  China's and Russia's involvement in Venezuela seems to be something that the Monroe Doctrine meant to head off.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 21, 2021, 04:40:19 PM
They've been in Cuba since the 50s.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 21, 2021, 04:42:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2021, 10:08:28 PM
Did Trump end up getting his glorious military sendoff?
Sadly, I think the firing squad is no longer in vogue in the USA :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 21, 2021, 04:44:20 PM
Beautiful visualisation but depressing

(https://i.redd.it/rw0vrjakuoc61.png)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 21, 2021, 04:48:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 21, 2021, 02:59:45 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29O2PE (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29O2PE)

QuoteBiden will recognize Guaido as Venezuela's leader, top diplomat says

By Reuters Staff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration will continue to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the South American country's president, Anthony Blinken, Biden's nominee for secretary of state, said on Tuesday.

Blinken told members of the U.S. Senate that Biden would seek to "more effectively target" sanctions on the country, which aim to oust President Nicolas Maduro - who retains control of the country. Blinken said the new administration would look at more humanitarian assistance to the country.

Fuck. Can we stop this? I mean I get that Maduro sucks but he just sucks for Venezuela. He poses no threat to us and there are plenty of other terrible regimes out there. Why are we still doing these regime change conflicts? I am so frustrated about this.
Drug cartel.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 21, 2021, 04:50:25 PM
Yes, people are living longer and are more active longer. That shouldn't be depressing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 21, 2021, 04:58:01 PM
Man, Lost really is old now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 05:22:11 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 21, 2021, 04:44:20 PM
Beautiful visualisation but depressing

(https://i.redd.it/rw0vrjakuoc61.png)

Why depressing? Because there are millenials old enough to be senators?  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 21, 2021, 05:32:20 PM
It's depressing if your an X. Most of them couldn't displace their parents.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 21, 2021, 05:38:32 PM
Yep. Consider the oldest gen x is now, what?  55?
People 55 and under are the majority of the population.... And they're so massively under-represented.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 21, 2021, 05:40:21 PM
Maybe if they didn't play videogames all day they'd get ahead.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on January 21, 2021, 05:41:55 PM
That graph sucks.

Because if you understand what it says, it is really very depressing.

But when you look at it, it is not at all intuitive what it is really telling us. It isn't about the current state, it is about how things have changed.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 05:43:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 21, 2021, 05:38:32 PM
Yep. Consider the oldest gen x is now, what?  55?
People 55 and under are the majority of the population.... And they're so massively under-represented.

Yep, the Boomers all decided to stick around for a couple more decades - and they called the millennials entitled....
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Savonarola on January 21, 2021, 05:48:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 21, 2021, 05:38:32 PM
Yep. Consider the oldest gen x is now, what?  55?
People 55 and under are the majority of the population.... And they're so massively under-represented.

Truth in advertising; "Senate" means council of elders.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 21, 2021, 05:52:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on January 21, 2021, 05:41:55 PM
That graph sucks.

Because if you understand what it says, it is really very depressing.

Not at all. We'll all get our turn, it just comes later due to longer life spans.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 21, 2021, 05:53:56 PM
"Wah people live longer and stay healthy longer. DOOOM"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 21, 2021, 06:00:01 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 21, 2021, 04:50:25 PM
Yes, people are living longer and are more active longer. That shouldn't be depressing.
Maybe. I think that Ben Smith piece in the NYT was very good about the conversations reporters have about how they cover Senators who are physically and mentally ailing (the answer: generally they don't). So it may not be obvious to the public even if it's an open secret in DC.

It's not easy but it's a conversation that seems important in the US given the number of leadership positions held by very old people.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 06:48:02 PM
There are more "Generation x" six years after the first entered the Senate than there were "Baby Boomers" six years after the first entered the Senate.

I'll just note once again that this whole "generations" thing is moronic and those who think it meaningful are mistaken.  "Generation" does not mean random grouping of people and 20 years hasn't ben a generation length since the mid-20th Century, if even that late.  The current generational length (average age of a woman giving birth) in the US is 27 years.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 06:52:53 PM
The idiot wing of the GOP is at it again:

QuoteRep. Marjorie Greene files articles of impeachment against Biden

Rep. Marjorie Greene (R-Ga.) said Thursday that she has filed articles of impeachment against President Biden, only a day after he was sworn into office.

The text of Greene's articles of impeachment specifying any impeachable offenses committed by Biden was not immediately available. But Greene indicated that the articles accuse Biden of abusing his power while serving as vice president by allowing his son, Hunter, to serve on the board of a Ukrainian energy company.

"President Joe Biden is unfit to hold the office of the presidency. His pattern of abuse of power as President Obama's Vice President is lengthy and disturbing. President Biden has demonstrated that he will do whatever it takes to bail out his son, Hunter, and line his family's pockets with cash from corrupt foreign energy companies," Greene said in a statement.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 07:00:35 PM
At least until she is arrested or resigns.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 07:21:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

No one will out-stupid her, that's for sure.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on January 21, 2021, 08:00:13 PM
Ban anyone over the age of 70 from holding office. Simple and elegant solution.  :bowler:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 08:08:43 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

Short list is Jim Jordan, Mat Gaetz, that chick with the gun, and this chick.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 08:55:19 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 07:21:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

No one will out-stupid her, that's for sure.

When it comes to stupid, never count out Gohmert.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 09:56:42 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 08:55:19 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 07:21:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

No one will out-stupid her, that's for sure.

When it comes to stupid, never count out Gohmert.

Gomert has gallons and gallons of stupid, but Greene has the distilled essence of stupid.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 22, 2021, 04:07:29 AM
I assume Biden will collect his Nobel Peace Prize this year? Since Obama got it for not being W, Biden not being Trump must make it pretty much automatic. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on January 22, 2021, 04:19:37 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 22, 2021, 04:07:29 AM
I assume Biden will collect his Nobel Peace Prize this year? Since Obama got it for not being W, Biden not being Trump must make it pretty much automatic. :)

They should give it to the as yet unknown people who talked Trump out of doing really stupid things, or refused to carry them out.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 22, 2021, 04:23:17 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 08:08:43 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

Short list is Jim Jordan, Mat Gaetz, that chick with the gun, and this chick.
I think Cawthorn may be a dark horse this year.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on January 22, 2021, 06:35:43 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/k41c9Lh/140922451-3990947577630951-4803123788787636247-n.jpg)

Oh dear :lol:

Seems he is setting himself up as the successor of Trump.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 07:28:44 AM
He'll never get elected with that beard.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 22, 2021, 07:31:03 AM
Cruz always seems completely phony to me when he tries to play the Trump card. I assume republican voters will think the same.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on January 22, 2021, 07:34:57 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 07:28:44 AM
He'll never get elected with that beard.

FYP.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 22, 2021, 07:55:28 AM
I read some posts that Biden gets instructions via ear piece because he apparently said "salute the marines" when passing marines without saluting them. Supposedly he was confused and repeated the instruction instead of following it. :tinfoil:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 22, 2021, 08:02:48 AM
Write something inane and push the post button.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 08:35:20 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 22, 2021, 07:55:28 AM
I read some posts that Biden gets instructions via ear piece because he apparently said "salute the marines" when passing marines without saluting them. Supposedly he was confused and repeated the instruction instead of following it. :tinfoil:

Saw the video, and on the face of it, comes across as depicted.  Could the audio have been spliced in?  Sure.  Is the President supposed to salute the Marines in that instance?  Not sure.

All the video sources I've found, as expected, come from right-wing sources.  So, who knows.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 08:54:13 AM
If anyone cares (or if you think this is even some kind of importance), and wants to dodge the biased sources...here is a link to the original video, so the audio itself, at least, is genuine.

https://youtu.be/ZwvbQR887W0?t=12567

I also cannot be sure if the first word he says is "salute", though "marines" is pretty clear.  He could have been saying something else in reference to them.

If one were to want to nitpick...it was from the inauguration ceremony, and before Biden was sworn in, so technically not POTUS yet.  I don't know if that matters from a protocol perspective in this case...but what I do know is that typically the lesser rank should salute first, and the higher up returns the salute (in previous POTUS saluting gaffes, you will always see the Marine presenting, or already holding, a salute). These Marines don't salute at all, but they're also holding the door, and may be excused from that in this instance.  The USMC may also have their own protocol, I am not qualified to speak for them.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 22, 2021, 10:19:13 AM
Is it possible he's just saying "look at the marines" to his wife?

In the way that my dad (and I assume most older men) just sort of say what they see on holiday :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on January 22, 2021, 10:34:28 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 21, 2021, 08:55:19 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 07:21:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

No one will out-stupid her, that's for sure.

When it comes to stupid, never count out Gohmert.


I still believe that sending Gohmert to Washington is a Texan plot to destroy the city by placing a man in the capital of such immense density that he can pull satellites out of orbit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 11:11:47 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 22, 2021, 10:19:13 AM
Is it possible he's just saying "look at the marines" to his wife?

In the way that my dad (and I assume most older men) just sort of say what they see on holiday :lol:

Hard to say.  In my professional experience, when there is a word or two that you cannot fully make out, oftentimes you will fill it in either with what you want to hear, or more often, the first "worm" (this "worm" often comes in the form of someone else telling you in advance what is said, as in this case) that gets in your brain, and then you will always hear, and be convinced you hear, that "worm" until there is absolute proof otherwise.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on January 22, 2021, 11:13:13 AM
If that's going to be the level of Biden's scandals, you should be pretty safe. :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 11:14:52 AM
Oh I agree.  Better than the issue of "ZOMG BIDEN DIDNT SALUT OUR HEROS!!!111", is the issue of; even if Biden does have aids giving him prompts via earpiece...is that really a big deal?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 11:19:30 AM
Only because it amuses me...I took one of the shorter clips (I used this one: https://youtu.be/ZwvbQR887W0?t=12567) , and ran it a couple lower speeds (which Youtube lets you do)...and I am almost convinced that the person who tells him to "salute the Marines" is his wife, walking next to him.  You can see her tilt her head just slightly, and just barely hear something from her (she is further from the mic) say what is likely the same phrase.  She cannot confirm if he did or not, of course, because she is slightly ahead of him.

Otherwise we have to presume there is a "watcher" somewhere who gives him prompts at just the right times/locations. Which is:  :tinfoil:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 22, 2021, 12:49:36 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 06:48:02 PM
There are more "Generation x" six years after the first entered the Senate than there were "Baby Boomers" six years after the first entered the Senate.

I'll just note once again that this whole "generations" thing is moronic and those who think it meaningful are mistaken.  "Generation" does not mean random grouping of people and 20 years hasn't ben a generation length since the mid-20th Century, if even that late.  The current generational length (average age of a woman giving birth) in the US is 27 years.

While I agree that arbitrary assignment of generation identities is moronic, there has been a shift to people working much longer and as a result the positions they hold not becoming vacant for others to progress into.  The Senate is a bad example because it has been the place where the olds historically hang on.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 22, 2021, 01:22:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 22, 2021, 12:49:36 PM
While I agree that arbitrary assignment of generation identities is moronic, there has been a shift to people working much longer and as a result the positions they hold not becoming vacant for others to progress into.  The Senate is a bad example because it has been the place where the olds historically hang on.

The "hanging on" bit is, indeed, a problem, but it isn't a new one.  Healthy life expectancies have gone up for a long time.

In Roman times, a man on the Cursus Honorum would enter the Senate at age 30 and reach the peak of his career at age 42, when he would stand for Consul.  Plenty of complaints in the late republic that older men were standing for consul and preventing the younger men from achieving the office in their year.

I'm not sure that there is a good way out of the problem of the ever-escalating "blocking the path" problem.  It's human nature to want to hang on to power, whether in business, politics, or family life.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on January 22, 2021, 02:47:31 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 22, 2021, 01:22:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 22, 2021, 12:49:36 PM
While I agree that arbitrary assignment of generation identities is moronic, there has been a shift to people working much longer and as a result the positions they hold not becoming vacant for others to progress into.  The Senate is a bad example because it has been the place where the olds historically hang on.

The "hanging on" bit is, indeed, a problem, but it isn't a new one.  Healthy life expectancies have gone up for a long time.

In Roman times, a man on the Cursus Honorum would enter the Senate at age 30 and reach the peak of his career at age 42, when he would stand for Consul.  Plenty of complaints in the late republic that older men were standing for consul and preventing the younger men from achieving the office in their year.

I'm not sure that there is a good way out of the problem of the ever-escalating "blocking the path" problem.  It's human nature to want to hang on to power, whether in business, politics, or family life.

I am fortunate that the folks 10-20 years older than me in the firm voluntarily and affirmatively gave over control.  Very different in other places where mandatory retirement policies needed to be put into place to remove overholding partners.  It worked out very well for our firm because it has become known as a place where an older lawyer (kicked out of their firm) can hang a shingle.  We have picked up some amazing talent that way and they play an active role mentoring our junior ranks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 22, 2021, 06:26:35 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 21, 2021, 07:21:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 21, 2021, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 21, 2021, 06:58:50 PM
I think it's probably best not to report on Greene at all. Will never be anything of value.

The competition for being the most terrible person in the House must be hard, but she's really working for it.

No one will out-stupid her, that's for sure.
one of her co-worker tried to enter the Senate floor with his gun, after the attempted coup.  I don't know if it qualifies, but it's close. ;)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on January 22, 2021, 06:27:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 22, 2021, 07:31:03 AM
Cruz always seems completely phony to me when he tries to play the Trump card. I assume republican voters will think the same.
You assume... much :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Solmyr on January 25, 2021, 04:13:07 AM
Man, this presidency sure is boring.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 25, 2021, 04:15:20 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 25, 2021, 04:13:07 AM
Man, this presidency sure is boring.


You know, you've made realize I just have no idea what the US president did the past 2-3 days. I missed that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 25, 2021, 04:22:02 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 25, 2021, 04:13:07 AM
Man, this presidency sure is boring.

Not if you're a fan of the previous administration:

QuoteIn 2 days... Biden has Canada pissed off, closer to war in Syria, obliterates women's sports, allows boys in girls locker rooms, admits he doesn't have a plan to contain the pandemic, he wants to vaccinate 1M people a day for 100 days( but the last week of trump admin they were doing 1.2M people a day), Biden responsible for covid deaths of 4,300 people since his inauguration, doesn't return salutes from marines, doesn't wear a mask on federal property after mandating it, already has articles of impeachment filed against him, put approx 52,000 people on unemployment, uses Betsy Ross flag at inauguration after republicans were told it was racist when it was displayed at trump rally, said " no comment" when asked about the Portland violence on Inauguration Day, rejoins Paris climate accord, fires a well qualified black man (Obama's surgeon general) gets locked out of the white house( he fired the usher that opens the doors to the White House 5 hours earlier) wants to raise minimum wage to $15 hour during a pandemic( non partisan congressional budget office says raising minimum wage to $15 will kill over 4 million jobs). He's been busy.... busy screwing Americans.
I cut and pasted this from another but felt it needs to be heard.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 25, 2021, 04:48:33 AM
Cut and paste is so lazy IMHO.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on January 25, 2021, 06:47:51 AM
Quote from: celedhring on January 25, 2021, 04:15:20 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on January 25, 2021, 04:13:07 AM
Man, this presidency sure is boring.


You know, you've made realize I just have no idea what the US president did the past 2-3 days. I missed that.

It's wonderful, isn't it?

Like, I don't know what the US president is doing right now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 25, 2021, 07:48:24 AM
Meanwhile, from the opposition ...

(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/ny-post-cover.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=618&h=410&crop=1)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 25, 2021, 07:55:17 AM
Hard to believe it's the same newspaper that gave us Redford and Hoffman. :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2021, 07:57:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 25, 2021, 07:48:24 AM
Meanwhile, from the opposition ...

(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/ny-post-cover.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=618&h=410&crop=1)
https://twitter.com/Mike_Shapes/status/1347860463577608193?s=20
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 25, 2021, 08:14:00 AM
Well yeah, there's no self-awareness about how many communication channels and amplification they have while whining about being silenced.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2021, 09:39:31 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 25, 2021, 08:14:00 AM
Well yeah, there's no self-awareness about how many communication channels and amplification they have while whining about being silenced.

I kid you not, it was just last year that a Hungarian government official complained about the "Liberal-left media dominance" in Hungary, after a decade of them gaining control each and every media outlet they could grab, at a time when supposedly entirely independent regional newspapers publish copy-pasted identical Orban interviews and other designs, not to mention the absolute control of all state media and varying level of control over most private TV channels.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 25, 2021, 10:26:07 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 25, 2021, 07:55:17 AM
Hard to believe it's the same newspaper that gave us Redford and Hoffman. :(

Washington. :contract:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 25, 2021, 11:02:26 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 25, 2021, 10:26:07 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 25, 2021, 07:55:17 AM
Hard to believe it's the same newspaper that gave us Redford and Hoffman. :(

Washington. :contract:

Sigh.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 25, 2021, 12:40:19 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 25, 2021, 09:39:31 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 25, 2021, 08:14:00 AM
Well yeah, there's no self-awareness about how many communication channels and amplification they have while whining about being silenced.

I kid you not, it was just last year that a Hungarian government official complained about the "Liberal-left media dominance" in Hungary, after a decade of them gaining control each and every media outlet they could grab, at a time when supposedly entirely independent regional newspapers publish copy-pasted identical Orban interviews and other designs, not to mention the absolute control of all state media and varying level of control over most private TV channels.

Narrative counts more than truth. Sure, there's been duplicity and lies in politics since forever, but now groups can insulate themselves in their respective bubbles and can have their beliefs reinforced independent from petty things like "facts."
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 27, 2021, 05:08:25 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 25, 2021, 07:48:24 AM
Meanwhile, from the opposition ...

(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/ny-post-cover.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=618&h=410&crop=1)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Djf-zdQUYAAhPkQ.jpg)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on January 27, 2021, 05:25:20 AM
That's probably the least fun example of that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 27, 2021, 06:34:52 AM
https://www.dw.com/en/us-russia-agree-to-extend-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty/a-56354318

QuoteUS, Russia agree to extend 'New START' nuclear arms treaty

The extension of the landmark arms control treaty will continue to limit the number of nuclear missiles and warheads each country can deploy.

The Russian lower house of Parliament, the Duma, on Wednesday ratified a new START nuclear treaty with the US.

The United States and Russia had "agreed in principle" to extend the arms treaty by five years following a phone call between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday.

A Kremlin description of the call between the two leaders said they had both "expressed satisfaction" that diplomatic notes had been exchanged earlier Tuesday confirming that the treaty would be extended,

The extension doesn't require approval from lawmakers in the US.

Deadline approaching

The White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the two leaders agreed to have their teams "work urgently" to iron out the details of the extension before the treaty's expiration date, February 5.

The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart at the time, Dmitry Medvedev.

The treaty limits each party to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, and 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers.

It also envisions a rigorous inspection regime to verify compliance.

The last nuclear arms control agreement

Biden had indicated during his presidential campaign that he favored extending the treaty, and Russia has long proposed its extension without any conditions or changes.

However, negotiations to extend the treaty were stalled by the administration of former US President Donald Trump, which insisted on tougher inspections for Russia and for China to be included, which Beijing refused.

During Trump's term, the US withdrew from a separate nuclear weapons control agreement with Russia, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, making New START the last  remaining nuclear weapons control treaty between Russia and the US.

(https://static.dw.com/image/42459491_7.png)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 27, 2021, 06:45:45 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 27, 2021, 05:25:20 AM
That's probably the least fun example of that.

The video in the tweet Sheilbh linked did the exact same thing (inspired the strip, I'm sure) but in a clever way.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on January 27, 2021, 08:25:45 AM
Quote from: grumbler on January 27, 2021, 06:45:45 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 27, 2021, 05:25:20 AM
That's probably the least fun example of that.

The video in the tweet Sheilbh linked did the exact same thing (inspired the strip, I'm sure) but in a clever way.

Exactly. That Death to 2020 clip was clever, as you say, whereas this later posted comic strip was not. :D
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 27, 2021, 09:06:12 AM
Amazing to think that the B52 will still be in service into the 2040s, getting close to a century. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 27, 2021, 09:45:53 AM
Just read that Biden signed an Executive Order requesting the DoJ to end federal contracts with private prisons. I don't know how effective will that be (IIRC there aren't that many federal prisons compared to state prisons) but seems at least a step in the right direction. The concept of a private prison seems abhorrent to me, and everything that I read about them has always confirmed that bias.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on January 27, 2021, 10:17:02 AM
I would get behind federal legislation making private prisons simply illegal, whether state run or otherwise.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on January 27, 2021, 10:44:49 AM
But if the states run prisons then they'll have to pay that money directly to running them instead of giving it to companies who can skim off profits and run awful places that the states "don't have direct control of."

Commies.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 27, 2021, 10:45:47 AM
Quote from: Berkut on January 27, 2021, 10:17:02 AM
I would get behind federal legislation making private prisons simply illegal, whether state run or otherwise.

Would this be constitutional? Non-rhetorical.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 27, 2021, 10:58:29 AM
It should be but commerce clause jurisprudence is in flux and there is new personnel on the court.  State criminal law is a traditional core state competency and the feds tend to stay out but if a state contracts out its prison system that concern is vitiated.  I believe most if not all the significant prison companies are multi state enterprises so it should be a no brainer that it can be regulated under the commerce clause.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 27, 2021, 11:38:51 AM
I would consider attacking on tsgt tsgt, if not inherently cruel, one could consider private-run prisons as "unusual".
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:56:52 AM
I recall once listening to a report on some criminal justice reform in New York State.  It was casually mentioned that the reform was opposed by some because their districts have prisons.  I was beyond disgusted, it's like funeral industry lobbying against the Covid vaccine.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on January 27, 2021, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:56:52 AM
I recall once listening to a report on some criminal justice reform in New York State.  It was casually mentioned that the reform was opposed by some because their districts have prisons.  I was beyond disgusted, it's like funeral industry lobbying against the Covid vaccine.

That is quite horrific.

The whole private prisons thing reminds me of the movie the Shawshank Redemption. It's line the evil warden's scheme to profit personally off of prisoner labour, but on a huge scale.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 27, 2021, 12:34:01 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 27, 2021, 10:58:29 AM
It should be but commerce clause jurisprudence is in flux and there is new personnel on the court.  State criminal law is a traditional core state competency and the feds tend to stay out but if a state contracts out its prison system that concern is vitiated.  I believe most if not all the significant prison companies are multi state enterprises so it should be a no brainer that it can be regulated under the commerce clause.

Thanks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on January 27, 2021, 12:36:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 27, 2021, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:56:52 AM
I recall once listening to a report on some criminal justice reform in New York State.  It was casually mentioned that the reform was opposed by some because their districts have prisons.  I was beyond disgusted, it's like funeral industry lobbying against the Covid vaccine.

That is quite horrific.

The whole private prisons thing reminds me of the movie the Shawshank Redemption. It's line the evil warden's scheme to profit personally off of prisoner labour, but on a huge scale.

Heh, I'd have thought having a prison in your district would elicit a NIMBY response, not the opposite.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on January 27, 2021, 12:40:52 PM
In the US, those districts are typically very rural, and the prison is, or has the potential to be, the #1 source of employment/tax revenue.

In an urban/metro area, the normal NIMBY rules could easily apply.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on January 27, 2021, 01:00:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 27, 2021, 12:36:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on January 27, 2021, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:56:52 AM
I recall once listening to a report on some criminal justice reform in New York State.  It was casually mentioned that the reform was opposed by some because their districts have prisons.  I was beyond disgusted, it's like funeral industry lobbying against the Covid vaccine.

That is quite horrific.

The whole private prisons thing reminds me of the movie the Shawshank Redemption. It's line the evil warden's scheme to profit personally off of prisoner labour, but on a huge scale.

Heh, I'd have thought having a prison in your district would elicit a NIMBY response, not the opposite.

The way some look at it, the prison is generating large sums of cash paid for by other areas in the form of tax money used to finance the prison - and that cash then benefits the lucky area the prison is in, in the form of jobs and other economic activities.

Thus, if the state passes laws that effectively imprison a large percentage of that state's lower class inhabitants, paid for by the dutiful taxes of the tax payers who are not imprisoned - and the prisoners are put to productive work, generating yet more local economic activity, which local politicians find beneficial (also with the possible benefit of undercutting the labour of those lower class inhabitants not yet imprisoned, thus increasing the prison population yet further! It's a virtuous cycle ...)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 27, 2021, 05:22:43 PM
Quote from: The Brain on January 27, 2021, 10:45:47 AM
Quote from: Berkut on January 27, 2021, 10:17:02 AM
I would get behind federal legislation making private prisons simply illegal, whether state run or otherwise.

Would this be constitutional? Non-rhetorical.

You could probably make the argument that it was a civil rights issue.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 27, 2021, 06:07:23 PM
Yes but not in this Supreme Court
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on January 28, 2021, 05:55:59 PM
Biden's Presidency will still have to contend with the Republican moral and political bankruptcy:

Proposed bill in Missouri: immunity to those who run over protesters with their cars; authorize the private use of deadly force against protesters.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/missouri-bill-would-allow-deadly-force-against-demonstrators/article_3ad28172-efb2-5b65-aa63-56f54d9a7585.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on January 28, 2021, 06:23:51 PM
Why not just arm the the cars with machine guns to cover all our bases?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on January 28, 2021, 06:25:57 PM
Does it have money for the perverted arts?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on January 28, 2021, 09:59:33 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 28, 2021, 05:55:59 PM
Biden's Presidency will still have to contend with the Republican moral and political bankruptcy:

Proposed bill in Missouri: immunity to those who run over protesters with their cars; authorize the private use of deadly force against protesters.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/missouri-bill-would-allow-deadly-force-against-demonstrators/article_3ad28172-efb2-5b65-aa63-56f54d9a7585.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

If that law passed, there would be so many antiabortion protestors gunned down on abortion clinic property that Jesus himself would cry for joy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on January 29, 2021, 06:46:21 AM
Quote from: grumbler on January 28, 2021, 09:59:33 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 28, 2021, 05:55:59 PM
Biden's Presidency will still have to contend with the Republican moral and political bankruptcy:

Proposed bill in Missouri: immunity to those who run over protesters with their cars; authorize the private use of deadly force against protesters.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/missouri-bill-would-allow-deadly-force-against-demonstrators/article_3ad28172-efb2-5b65-aa63-56f54d9a7585.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

If that law passed, there would be so many antiabortion protestors gunned down on abortion clinic property that Jesus himself would cry for joy.

Silly, that law will only be applied to left-ish protests, of course.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:48:29 PM
Does this thread really need to be stickied?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 08:58:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:48:29 PM
Does this thread really need to be stickied?
It does, if we want to keep it on first page.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: katmai on January 31, 2021, 09:07:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:48:29 PM
Does this thread really need to be stickied?
are you questioning me?!?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 11:40:11 PM
Yes boss!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 02:23:37 PM
Interesting scenario...only 6 cabinet picks have been confirmed so far, in large part due to a late start with the election nonsense.

Apparently the priority is now to focus on the budget/relief bill. Next week the impeachment trial starts. For some reason the senate is taking a week off at the end of the month.

Republicans are signaling that the budget/relief bill "requires" their undivided attention, as does the impeachment trial.

The takeaway is that unless something changes, cabinet appointments are going to be getting into place extremely late.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 03, 2021, 02:46:46 PM
Why does anyone care what Republicans think?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 02:51:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 03, 2021, 02:46:46 PM
Why does anyone care what Republicans think?

Because there are filibuster rules and cloture rules that can grind everything to a halt so long as Democrats leave the rules in place, as they seem inclined to do.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 03, 2021, 02:57:28 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 02:51:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 03, 2021, 02:46:46 PM
Why does anyone care what Republicans think?

Because there are filibuster rules and cloture rules that can grind everything to a halt so long as Democrats leave the rules in place, as they seem inclined to do.

The Republicans already eliminated the filibuster for nominations, I believe. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 03, 2021, 02:59:15 PM
I though there were some issues with it being split 50-50 (despite the VP tie-breaker) and not a "real" majority, but I will admit to not being clued in on the details of any consequences from that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:04:33 PM
Quote from: grumbler on February 03, 2021, 02:57:28 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 02:51:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 03, 2021, 02:46:46 PM
Why does anyone care what Republicans think?

Because there are filibuster rules and cloture rules that can grind everything to a halt so long as Democrats leave the rules in place, as they seem inclined to do.

The Republicans already eliminated the filibuster for nominations, I believe.

I think they did, though you can still hold things up for 3 days or something.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 03, 2021, 03:12:52 PM
The Republicans are intentionally trying to fuck everything up to score big wins in 2022. You are about as able to get help from an arsonist in fire-proofing your house as to get reasonable cooperation from them. We have seen this game for a decade now and how they play it.

Maybe there is one or two who might be willing to cooperate in some circumstances but otherwise the Democrats need to get their own house in order and do everything they can with what they have. Expecting anything out of the Republicans is a fools errand.

Sure there might be one of two Republican Senators who might work with you on this issue or that issue but they are pretty disciplined under McConnell's leadership generally. Splitting them in a significant way on anything the Democrats might want to do is almost impossible.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 03, 2021, 03:12:52 PM
The Republicans are intentionally trying to fuck everything up to score big wins in 2022. You are about as able to get help from an arsonist in fire-proofing your house as to get reasonable cooperation from them. We have seen this game for a decade now and how they play it.

Maybe there is one or two who might be willing to cooperate in some circumstances but otherwise the Democrats need to get their own house in order and do everything they can with what they have. Expecting anything out of the Republicans is a fools errand.

Sure there might be one of two Republican Senators who might work with you on this issue or that issue but they are pretty disciplined under McConnell's leadership generally. Splitting them in a significant way on anything the Democrats might want to do is almost impossible.

I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake. The outcome is preordained--there won't be a conviction. The priorities right now need to be covid relief and getting a team in place. They are trying to rush covid relief in before the trial, but republicans are going to drag both out which is going to result in delays.

What is supposed to be a presidential honeymoon period is going to sidetracked with this trial and cause a rapid descent into the standard partisan nonsense, when the trial could have been in April or May when we naturally would be there anyway.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 03, 2021, 04:45:24 PM
In what fantasy world were any Republican supporters going to have a honeymoon phase with Biden
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 05:06:11 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM
I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake.

when should it be held?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 06:30:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 05:06:11 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM
I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake.

when should it be held?

A couple months from now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 05, 2021, 09:27:12 AM
Well, I guess we can lock the thread, it's decided:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EteAnERXAAUKY2C?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on February 05, 2021, 10:00:19 AM
That's, well, uh, a reasonable critic.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 05, 2021, 12:48:53 PM
Is that accurate though? I thought he was trying to get schools open ASAP.

Ah well. Hard to get good accurate information these days.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 01:40:02 PM
I can't believe that so many of your schools remained closed to be honest.  Having our schools open is one of the better things Alberta has done in fighting Covid.  There's been very, very little spread within the schools themselves.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 05, 2021, 01:42:05 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 01:40:02 PM
I can't believe that so many of your schools remained closed to be honest.  Having our schools open is one of the better things Alberta has done in fighting Covid.  There's been very, very little spread within the schools themselves.

Yeah our schools are open. I can see why we closed them at first, before we had more information, but now we have data that suggests that they can be opened safely. The high cost of closing those schools does not seem worth the price at all based on what we know now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 02:06:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 05, 2021, 01:42:05 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 01:40:02 PM
I can't believe that so many of your schools remained closed to be honest.  Having our schools open is one of the better things Alberta has done in fighting Covid.  There's been very, very little spread within the schools themselves.

Yeah our schools are open. I can see why we closed them at first, before we had more information, but now we have data that suggests that they can be opened safely. The high cost of closing those schools does not seem worth the price at all based on what we know now.

But in other jurisdictions (I keep hearing about NYC for example) they're closed.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 05, 2021, 02:10:18 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 02:06:14 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 05, 2021, 01:42:05 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2021, 01:40:02 PM
I can't believe that so many of your schools remained closed to be honest.  Having our schools open is one of the better things Alberta has done in fighting Covid.  There's been very, very little spread within the schools themselves.

Yeah our schools are open. I can see why we closed them at first, before we had more information, but now we have data that suggests that they can be opened safely. The high cost of closing those schools does not seem worth the price at all based on what we know now.

But in other jurisdictions (I keep hearing about NYC for example) they're closed.

I know. But NYC might be a bad example since they have been such a hot spot. It might make sense there where it might not in Alberta or Texas I don't know.

But generally we need to get schools open. Education, and all activities for kids, are really suffering during this thing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 05, 2021, 04:00:26 PM
The POTUS doesn't decide when schools open.

My school has been open since the beginning of October, with a two-week break after an outbreak of Covid that was not really related to school (a parent of the baseball team decided to have a team cookout). 

But this is in a small rural county with much less student interaction with crowds.  I think that things have to be decided on a case-by-case basis, which precludes a presidential order.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 05, 2021, 04:03:58 PM
Yeah. Schools in Fairfax county (densely populated DC suburbs) have been closed, reopened with restrictions, and are now closed again, but recently announced a reopening plan targeting mid-March. All of the (private) preschools we're looking at, however, have been open with reduced class sizes, social distancing, and other precautions.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: saskganesh on February 05, 2021, 09:47:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM

I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake.

I believe you are somewhat right, and there will be political loss over the short term, but they really have to. No other President has started an insurrection, went home to watch the spectacle on TV, and refuse to take phone calls while he was enjoying his show.

There just has to be a trial.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on February 05, 2021, 09:59:38 PM
Quote from: saskganesh on February 05, 2021, 09:47:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM

I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake.

I believe you are somewhat right, and there will be political loss over the short term, but they really have to. No other President has started an insurrection, went home to watch the spectacle on TV, and refuse to take phone calls while he was enjoying his show.

There just has to be a trial.

I agree with this - not doing the trial would be a mistake.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on February 06, 2021, 12:45:05 AM
Quote from: Malthus on February 05, 2021, 09:59:38 PM
I agree with this - not doing the trial would be a mistake.

Yeah, if for no other reason than to bring more evidence of the organization into public view.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2021, 12:52:20 AM
The trial has value in setting an historical record of the vote and compelling Republican senators to vote on something they would rather duck.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: saskganesh on February 06, 2021, 01:04:48 AM
I'm reading Grant lost Reconstruction, because he did mass arrests but there was not enough legal followup, legal capacity and too many sympathizers in the judiciary.

Good luck, honestly.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on February 06, 2021, 03:25:10 AM
You must kill the sons of Brutus.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 06, 2021, 01:44:56 PM
Quote from: saskganesh on February 05, 2021, 09:47:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 03:55:48 PM

I realize I'm in the minority on this, but I think holding the trial now is a massive mistake.

I believe you are somewhat right, and there will be political loss over the short term, but they really have to. No other President has started an insurrection, went home to watch the spectacle on TV, and refuse to take phone calls while he was enjoying his show.

There just has to be a trial.

Imagine the political price of condoning the actions of the past president by taking the unprecedented step of not holding the trial in the Senate and the vote to impeach has already occurred in the House.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 06, 2021, 07:59:12 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 06, 2021, 01:44:56 PM


Imagine the political price of condoning the actions of the past president by taking the unprecedented step of not holding the trial in the Senate and the vote to impeach has already occurred in the House.

I was just curious so I checked wikipedia--if it is accurate it looks like it would have precedent for the senate to not proceed to a trial for an impeached official who left office.

That said: I want to be clear that I was in no way saying there shouldn't be a senate trial. I was saying that there shouldn't be a senate trial right now. The senate has only approved 6 Biden senior posts, and if they aren't approving more while the trial proceeds, we will likely be at 7 at the one month mark of Biden's presidency. The optics will be that litigating the past is more important to senate democrats than putting in place the administration, and I think the optics will have truth to them.

A couple months from now, that won't be the case.

The real trial for Trump shouldn't be in the Senate anyway. There should be a criminal trial--or more likely multiple criminal trials.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 06, 2021, 08:04:33 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 06, 2021, 01:44:56 PM
Imagine the political price of condoning the actions of the past president by taking the unprecedented step of not holding the trial in the Senate and the vote to impeach has already occurred in the House.

Nobody is suggesting that though. Only that we get the important legislative agenda done first, and that is often done in the first few months of a Presidential term, and then we can have the trial. It sounds good to me if the trial will slow the vital legislation we need, especially with the crisis our nation is facing and the politically precarious position the Democrats currently are in. They need to have a big string of successes to take to the voters in 2022.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 12:50:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 06, 2021, 07:59:12 PM
I was just curious so I checked wikipedia--if it is accurate it looks like it would have precedent for the senate to not proceed to a trial for an impeached official who left office.

What precedent is that?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 07, 2021, 01:00:55 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 12:50:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 06, 2021, 07:59:12 PM
I was just curious so I checked wikipedia--if it is accurate it looks like it would have precedent for the senate to not proceed to a trial for an impeached official who left office.

What precedent is that?

I think a couple of judges resigned rather than facing impeachment trials.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 07, 2021, 09:49:07 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 12:50:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 06, 2021, 07:59:12 PM
I was just curious so I checked wikipedia--if it is accurate it looks like it would have precedent for the senate to not proceed to a trial for an impeached official who left office.

What precedent is that?

As I mentioned I only checked wikipedia, but it seems (per wikipedia) Mark W. Delahay was a federal judge impeached due to drunkenness that resigned and didn't get tried back in the 1870s, and there were a couple other similar ones as well.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 11:12:07 AM
It says impeachment articles were never drafted for Delahay nor sent to the Senate. So they couldn't have held a trial.

Both the House and Senate have the discretion to decide that removal of office is sufficient sanction and elect not to pursue matters further. That is very different from the constitutionally and historically absurd claim that the Senate lacks the power to try such cases.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 07, 2021, 11:54:44 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 11:12:07 AM
It says impeachment articles were never drafted for Delahay nor sent to the Senate. So they couldn't have held a trial.


I'm just going off the list here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Impeachment%20in%20the%20United%20States%20is%20the%20process,President%20for%20misconduct%20alleged%20to%20have%20been%20committed.

It looks like there were 3 judges that have dates of impeachment but no trial was held (again just per wikipedia):

Delahay
English
Kent

Maybe I'm missing one because the article states: "Of the 21 impeachments by the House, eight were convicted and removed from office, four cases did not come to trial because the individuals had left office and the Senate did not pursue the case, eight ended in acquittal and one is still pending."

QuoteBoth the House and Senate have the discretion to decide that removal of office is sufficient sanction and elect not to pursue matters further. That is very different from the constitutionally and historically absurd claim that the Senate lacks the power to try such cases.

That was never my point. My point was that CC is wrong (at least per wikipedia) to say it would be unprecedented.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 03:21:25 PM
OK - I think I get your point - that the Senate could delay or elect to forgo a trial in its discretion.  That's true, the Senate is the master of itself.

But the objection raised by the minority is a constitutional and jurisdictional one, and that is without support.

I personally don't see much benefit in pulling the bandaid off slowly.  Get it done and one way or other put the man in the rear view mirror.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 08, 2021, 07:56:33 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 07, 2021, 03:21:25 PM

But the objection raised by the minority is a constitutional and jurisdictional one, and that is without support.

That was not my objection.

QuoteI personally don't see much benefit in pulling the bandaid off slowly.  Get it done and one way or other put the man in the rear view mirror.

Imagine a counterfactual. Mitch McConnell has a majority and sets a pace for approving nominees. He says, "We'll approve 7 in the first 3 weeks of Biden's term, take a week or so off, and then take up others. Seven in month one seems like a good number. I don't see much benefit in going faster than that." Democrats would be losing their shit that he was obstructing the Biden administration.

It is also suspicious that the covid relief package is destined to come back from the house only after the senate trial is expected to end. It isn't a stretch to wonder if holding the trial now is slowing down that package.

Trump isn't going into the rear view mirror. He is destined to be acquitted and is probably the most likely person to be the GOP nominee in 2024. My hunch is that some of the procedural issues -- like witnesses -- are being decided based on Democratic senators seeing the same pressures I'm pointing out and just wanting the trial to end as fast as possible. If you put this off a few months, you could be much more thorough. Or--even better--you could piggy back off of a criminal trial.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
The impeachment trial is just an excuse; the Senate can walk and chew gum at the same time if it wants to.  If Zombie Scalia came to life, McConnell would get a vote to have him reinstated to the Court through committee and on the floor in nano-seconds, even if was December 24 and a Martian-Jewish alliance was assaulting DC with orbital space lasers..
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on February 08, 2021, 10:30:32 AM
Lawfare's podcast had a good review of the constitutionality of "late impeachments" that was worth the listen, the guy they had on is more or less considered the only real expert on them since it's not an area of law frequently explored or typically of any real import. That guy came down on the side of believing they are constitutional, but acknowledged the people raising claims that it is unconstitutional have arguments with merit even though he disagreed with them. His core reason for coming down on the side of them considering all of the facts, was that the contrary belief would be that a poorly behaving official could simply resign to avoid the penalty of lifetime disqualification, and then simply be reappointed (in the case of appointed officials) or re-elected, which he thinks would not have been the intent of the founder's. He also mentioned that the constitution uses language about impeachment that highly suggests it's largely congress's sole discretion as to how to use it, suggesting there was not an intention for the courts to adjudicate the constitutionality of an impeachment proceeding, but rather the discretion of the congress itself.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 08, 2021, 11:03:48 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
The impeachment trial is just an excuse; the Senate can walk and chew gum at the same time if it wants to.  If Zombie Scalia came to life, McConnell would get a vote to have him reinstated to the Court through committee and on the floor in nano-seconds, even if was December 24 and a Martian-Jewish alliance was assaulting DC with orbital space lasers..

I'm confused on this...McConnell isn't in charge...the Majority Leader is Chuck Schumer. Absent a trial, it does seem likely they would be proceeding with other business.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 12:41:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 08, 2021, 11:03:48 AM
I'm confused on this...McConnell isn't in charge...the Majority Leader is Chuck Schumer.

Incorrect.  Joe Manchin is in charge.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 01:32:29 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on February 08, 2021, 10:30:32 AM
Lawfare's podcast had a good review of the constitutionality of "late impeachments" that was worth the listen, the guy they had on is more or less considered the only real expert on them since it's not an area of law frequently explored or typically of any real import. That guy came down on the side of believing they are constitutional, but acknowledged the people raising claims that it is unconstitutional have arguments with merit even though he disagreed with them.

I'll put aside the expertise claim; there are many people who have written books or academic articles on the impeachment power.  I have heard people say that the unconstitutionality argument has merit; what I haven't seen in any arguments that seem meritorious. I would compare that with say the self-pardon question which I think has a clear answer -- it's not permissible - but for which there is an obvious meritorious argument to the contrary - namely that the pardon clause contains no such limitation.  There doesn't seem to be an argument of that strength on the former impeachment question.

Let's start by approaching it like Justice Scalia would.  First look at the text of the impeachment power: "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment".  That is pretty straightforward. The power of impeachment is given to the House, there is no limitation to sitting officers. OK what about the Senate - does the Constitution remove their jurisdiction to try former officers?  No is it also unqualified in the same way: "The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments."  I.e. if the House can impeach, the Senate can try.

The one argument I've seen is that Article II states that: "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors".  The argument is that since impeachment entails removal of a sitting officer, it must be the case that former officers can't be impeached.  Even stating the argument, it makes no sense: how does the conclusion follow from the premise?  To analogize to another example, it is correct statement of law to say that that an alien convicted of a crime of violence is deportable.  Does that mean US citizens can't be convicted of crimes of violence because they are not deportable?

OK but what if the *ONLY* sanction available for crimes of violence was deportation?  Then the argument might hold because what would be the point of trying a US citizen?  So if the only sanction available in impeachment was removal, the argument could hold pragmatically.  But of course that isn't true either -because the officeholder bar is an available sanction that can apply to former as well as current officeholders.

Then there is the next element of the Scalia analysis: the original "public meaning" of the impeachment clause at the time it was adopted - i.e. was it understood at the time to reach former officers.  That one is easy: not only did the known 18th century English precedents involve impeachment of former officers (not current), but at the time the Constitution was being drafted, debated and then ratified, one of the biggest news stories in the English speaking world was the impeachment of Warren Hastings - who was impeached about 2 years after holding office.

Given that background, it is not surprising that the very first known federal impeachment involved the trial of a former officer - more than a year after he fled the District for good - and that there is no record of any objection raised on that ground.  Eighty years later, when Belknap was impeached, the issue was raised but then rejected, and Belknap was also tried despite having already left office.

When one leaves Scalialand and considers question like purpose and likely intent, the question is even clearer, as the dangers of allowing officials to escape the consequences of impeachment through resignation ae obvious.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2021, 04:43:41 PM
Thought to post in the Texas thread but didn't want to hijack....
There going to be any movement on Puerto Rico statehood with Biden?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 04:53:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 08, 2021, 04:43:41 PM
Thought to post in the Texas thread but didn't want to hijack....
There going to be any movement on Puerto Rico statehood with Biden?

DC is more likely.

It's not entirely clear whether PR wants statehood or not.  It would mean many profound changes to life on the island (They'd have to pay income tax, but would also qualify for other benefits).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 04:54:16 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 08, 2021, 04:43:41 PM
Thought to post in the Texas thread but didn't want to hijack....
There going to be any movement on Puerto Rico statehood with Biden?

That probably depends to a great extent on the people of Puerto Rico wanting statehood.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2021, 05:56:54 PM
They voted yes on a referendum last year iirc?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 05:59:34 PM
Shoot, my bad.  I thought the most recent was the three way split.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 06:01:01 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 08, 2021, 05:56:54 PM
They voted yes on a referendum last year iirc?

Boycotted by pro-independence groups.

There's 3 factions in PR: statehood, independence, status quo.  None of the three have a majority support.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 06:03:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 05:59:34 PM
Shoot, my bad.  I thought the most recent was the three way split.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum#:~:text=A%20referendum%20on%20the%20political,overwhelmingly%20chose%20statehood%20by%2097%25.

97% support for statehood, but only 23% turnout.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on February 08, 2021, 06:08:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 06:01:01 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 08, 2021, 05:56:54 PM
They voted yes on a referendum last year iirc?

Boycotted by pro-independence groups.

There's 3 factions in PR: statehood, independence, status quo.  None of the three have a majority support.

The boycotted one was in 2017, IIRC. The one last year was not boycotted, AFAIK.

In any case, the pro-independence camp is a very minoritary one, they only got like 5% in the last referendum in which it was an option on the ballot.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2021, 06:08:46 PM
This is the more recent one

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum


The dreaded 52-48. Clear sign that Puerto Rico overwhelmingly wants to become a state, ban Spanish, and form a NFL team.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on February 08, 2021, 06:17:48 PM
Considering the gains Republicans made among Hispanics in the last election, it isn't unreasonable to say Puerto Rico has a decent chance of sending a Republican to the Senate. PR probably has a better chance at statehood than DC.

I can't imagine DC ever achieving statehood, absent an agreement that, say, Texas splits into 2 states so they can send an additional 2 Republicans to the Senate.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 06:21:17 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 08, 2021, 06:17:48 PM
I can't imagine DC ever achieving statehood, absent an agreement that, say, Texas splits into 2 states so they can send an additional 2 Republicans to the Senate.

Most reasonable solution is folding DC outside a "federal enclave" back into Maryland.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 06:56:13 PM
I tend to agree.  I don't think DC should be a state...either back to Maryland as Yi said, or maybe throw them a huge boon for lacking federal representation, such as making DC residents (and they'd have to very strict on verification of this to avoid exploitation) exempt from federal taxes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 08, 2021, 07:48:46 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 04:53:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 08, 2021, 04:43:41 PM
Thought to post in the Texas thread but didn't want to hijack....
There going to be any movement on Puerto Rico statehood with Biden?

DC is more likely.

It's not entirely clear whether PR wants statehood or not.  It would mean many profound changes to life on the island (They'd have to pay income tax, but would also qualify for other benefits).

Well they have voted for it multiple times now. But beyond that ut isn't clear at all.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on February 08, 2021, 08:38:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 05:59:34 PM
Shoot, my bad.  I thought the most recent was the three way split.

Just went to look it up. They voted 97% in favour of statehood, but with a 23% turnout. The pro-status-quo party encouraged a boycott, so read that as you will.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: celedhring on February 09, 2021, 03:37:21 AM
Yeah, there has never been a strong and clear mandate either way. So for now everything defaults to status quo. I'm not cognizant enougn on PR politics to know if the issue truly important there, or they are just happy to chug along.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 09, 2021, 07:38:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 06:21:17 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 08, 2021, 06:17:48 PM
I can't imagine DC ever achieving statehood, absent an agreement that, say, Texas splits into 2 states so they can send an additional 2 Republicans to the Senate.

Most reasonable solution is folding DC outside a "federal enclave" back into Maryland.

Yep.  Solves all the problems and has a precedent.  Maryland would need some compensation for all the tax-exempt properties, but that's just negotiating the details.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:47:04 AM
Can it be renamed Marylamb?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 09, 2021, 07:48:55 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:47:04 AM
Can it be renamed Marylamb?

No, but you can find a woman there named Mary Lamb.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:58:45 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 09, 2021, 07:48:55 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:47:04 AM
Can it be renamed Marylamb?

No, but you can find a woman there named Mary Lamb.

Is she into... kind of nerdy baby-faced Scandinavians?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 09, 2021, 09:36:37 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:58:45 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 09, 2021, 07:48:55 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 09, 2021, 07:47:04 AM
Can it be renamed Marylamb?

No, but you can find a woman there named Mary Lamb.

Is she into... kind of nerdy baby-faced Scandinavians?

Add "who like to be spanked" and you're on to something.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 09, 2021, 09:44:42 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 08, 2021, 06:17:48 PM
Considering the gains Republicans made among Hispanics in the last election, it isn't unreasonable to say Puerto Rico has a decent chance of sending a Republican to the Senate. PR probably has a better chance at statehood than DC.

I can't imagine DC ever achieving statehood, absent an agreement that, say, Texas splits into 2 states so they can send an additional 2 Republicans to the Senate.
Given Texas is currently inching towards being a true swing state might not splitting it gift one of the two to the Dems?
Unless there's some serious gerrymandering of course.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 10:58:44 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 09, 2021, 09:44:42 AM
Given Texas is currently inching towards being a true swing state might not splitting it gift one of the two to the Dems?
Unless there's some serious gerrymandering of course.

It's a bit tricky to gerrymander Senate races.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on February 09, 2021, 11:06:38 AM
Merge the Dakotas. There is no justification for there being two Dakotas <_< :ultra:

Also the civil war is over - go back to one Virginia <_<
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 10:58:44 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 09, 2021, 09:44:42 AM
Given Texas is currently inching towards being a true swing state might not splitting it gift one of the two to the Dems?
Unless there's some serious gerrymandering of course.

It's a bit tricky to gerrymander Senate races.

True but when you are splitting a state in half you have a unique opportunity to do so.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2021, 11:43:51 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 09, 2021, 11:06:38 AM
Merge the Dakotas. There is no justification for there being two Dakotas <_< :ultra:

The Dakotas are so nice they made two of them. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on February 09, 2021, 11:44:10 AM
Maine should return to Massachusetts.

Oklahoma should be divided in half, with one side becoming a true Native American state.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 09, 2021, 11:49:37 AM
Reunite the Virginias!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:51:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
True but when you are splitting a state in half you have a unique opportunity to do so.

Leaving aside the issue that the Texas state legislature would not be the body drawing the new state line, how does one split a purple state into two parts so that the splitting party gains an electoral advantage in state-wide races?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 09, 2021, 11:51:37 AM
While at it, let's redraw all the states to make it more equitable when it comes to representation. :P

(https://i.redd.it/nt4u2y10k5511.jpg)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:52:20 AM
Annex American Samoa and Guam to Hawaii.

Am I forgetting one?   American Marshall Islands or something?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2021, 12:02:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:52:20 AM
Annex American Samoa and Guam to Hawaii.

Am I forgetting one?   American Marshall Islands or something?

Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 12:05:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 09, 2021, 12:02:37 PM
Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands?

By "one" I meant Pacific territories.  Annexing US VI to Hawaii would be stoopid.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 09, 2021, 02:09:11 PM
Ya'll need to give up on splitting/combining States.  The requirements to do that make it probably the most impossible/unlikely to happen mechanism in the Constitution.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 02:27:28 PM
If the democrats want to play hardball they should add 100 states, each of which is about a block or so of DC.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 03:09:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:52:20 AM
Annex American Samoa and Guam to Hawaii.

Am I forgetting one?   American Marshall Islands or something?

Ok there are five inhabited territories with various statuses:

Puerto Rico 3.2 million people
Guam 168K people
US Virgin Islands 106K people
Northern Mariana Islands 51K people
American Samoa 49K people

My idea to handle the problem was this:

Create two new states: a Pacific one (combining Guam, Northern Marianas, and American Samoa) and a Caribbean one (combining Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands) and then let them draw out their constitutions deciding how each area is to be represented in the congress, locally governed, and how to divide their electoral votes.

Then I would give all of DC, except for the federal buildings themselves and places like the national mall, back to Maryland.

Then expand the House of Representatives by 100 members.

And that, to me, would guarantee that everybody in the United States had representation in our federal government.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 09, 2021, 03:12:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:51:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
True but when you are splitting a state in half you have a unique opportunity to do so.

Leaving aside the issue that the Texas state legislature would not be the body drawing the new state line, how does one split a purple state into two parts so that the splitting party gains an electoral advantage in state-wide races?
For the dems I'd imagine a natural split would do the trick. You'd have urban Texas and cowboy Texas.

If the intention is to give two republican states though... You'd have to really be careful to split the cities between the two I guess?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 03:16:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 11:51:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
True but when you are splitting a state in half you have a unique opportunity to do so.

Leaving aside the issue that the Texas state legislature would not be the body drawing the new state line, how does one split a purple state into two parts so that the splitting party gains an electoral advantage in state-wide races?

Well the trick that is used is to split the urban areas into lots of rural dominated districts. Probably hard to do with a state :hmm:

But hey it all comes down to how you group the cities together.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 03:26:45 PM
I'm honestly perplexed, not trying to play a gag on youse guys.

Say for the sake of argument Texas is 51/49 GOP/Dem.  How do you split that electorate in two in such a way to disadvantage the Dems? 

Seems to me the absolute best the GOP could hope for is two cloned states that split 51/49.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 03:36:42 PM
A problem with "no gerrymandering" is there isn't an organizing principle in US politics to move to.

For example, if you were to say, "the 435 house of rep districts should be drawn so that the partisan balance of each district reflects that of the whole" the result would be a democratic advantage in the house of 435 - 0 (as democrats had the edge in overall house voting - a 51/49 edge for the democrats in house voting would be matched in every district).

If a first principle is the urban core areas have their own districts, those will be hyper democratic and be an effective republican gerrymander. If the first principle is rural districts are created, those will generally be hyper republican and an effective democratic gerrymander.

You can develop more neutral rules than those (and of course people have), but the problem is there isn't a consensus on what the principle should be and everyone is gaming the outcome.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 09, 2021, 03:43:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 03:26:45 PM
I'm honestly perplexed, not trying to play a gag on youse guys.

Say for the sake of argument Texas is 51/49 GOP/Dem.  How do you split that electorate in two in such a way to disadvantage the Dems? 

Seems to me the absolute best the GOP could hope for is two cloned states that split 51/49.

It's closer to 55-45 really. Cornyn got 61-36 in 2014.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on February 09, 2021, 04:14:07 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 03:36:42 PM
A problem with "no gerrymandering" is there isn't an organizing principle in US politics to move to.

For example, if you were to say, "the 435 house of rep districts should be drawn so that the partisan balance of each district reflects that of the whole" the result would be a democratic advantage in the house of 435 - 0 (as democrats had the edge in overall house voting - a 51/49 edge for the democrats in house voting would be matched in every district).

If a first principle is the urban core areas have their own districts, those will be hyper democratic and be an effective republican gerrymander. If the first principle is rural districts are created, those will generally be hyper republican and an effective democratic gerrymander.

You can develop more neutral rules than those (and of course people have), but the problem is there isn't a consensus on what the principle should be and everyone is gaming the outcome.

The solution, it seems to me, would be to hand over the task to a politically non-partisan election tribunal working with agreed rules - as is done in other countries.

In Canada for example, the federal electoral districts are re-drawn every decade by a set of commissions, to take into consideration population changes.

Each province has its own boundary commission, working independently, and drawn from allegedly non-partisan individuals - usually retired judges and senior civil servants. The provinces have a number of seats assigned to them based on a particular formula. The districts are supposed to be roughly equal in population, though they can depart from that in special social and geographic circumstances. The boundaries are subject to public hearings and debate in parliament, but ultimately the decisions are made by these commissions.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red&document=index&lang=e

The advantage is that this type of system appears to curtail gerrymandering. The system was adopted in the 1960s because, prior to that, gerrymandering had been a serious problem in Canada.

Now obviously the US is not Canada, and the constitutional rights of states to govern their own process is different. However, states could adopt a similar solution if they wanted to.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 04:17:27 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 09, 2021, 03:43:33 PM
It's closer to 55-45 really. Cornyn got 61-36 in 2014.

Yeah it was 53-44 vote in the House races. And yeah it was much larger just a short time ago. The trends are good at least...if you are on the blue team anyway.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 04:26:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on February 09, 2021, 04:14:07 PM
The solution, it seems to me, would be to hand over the task to a politically non-partisan election tribunal working with agreed rules - as is done in other countries.

In Canada for example, the federal electoral districts are re-drawn every decade by a set of commissions, to take into consideration population changes.

Each province has its own boundary commission, working independently, and drawn from allegedly non-partisan individuals - usually retired judges and senior civil servants. The provinces have a number of seats assigned to them based on a particular formula. The districts are supposed to be roughly equal in population, though they can depart from that in special social and geographic circumstances. The boundaries are subject to public hearings and debate in parliament, but ultimately the decisions are made by these commissions.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red&document=index&lang=e

The advantage is that this type of system appears to curtail gerrymandering. The system was adopted in the 1960s because, prior to that, gerrymandering had been a serious problem in Canada.

Now obviously the US is not Canada, and the constitutional rights of states to govern their own process is different. However, states could adopt a similar solution if they wanted to.

Of course, you are overlooking my point: there is no agreed set of rules. And at this point, both sides have gamed the potential rules out and know what the outcomes will be.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 04:39:52 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 04:26:12 PM
Of course, you are overlooking my point: there is no agreed set of rules. And at this point, both sides have gamed the potential rules out and know what the outcomes will be.

I think most people know a weird shaped district when they see one.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Malthus on February 09, 2021, 04:40:17 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 04:26:12 PM
Quote from: Malthus on February 09, 2021, 04:14:07 PM
The solution, it seems to me, would be to hand over the task to a politically non-partisan election tribunal working with agreed rules - as is done in other countries.

In Canada for example, the federal electoral districts are re-drawn every decade by a set of commissions, to take into consideration population changes.

Each province has its own boundary commission, working independently, and drawn from allegedly non-partisan individuals - usually retired judges and senior civil servants. The provinces have a number of seats assigned to them based on a particular formula. The districts are supposed to be roughly equal in population, though they can depart from that in special social and geographic circumstances. The boundaries are subject to public hearings and debate in parliament, but ultimately the decisions are made by these commissions.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red&document=index&lang=e

The advantage is that this type of system appears to curtail gerrymandering. The system was adopted in the 1960s because, prior to that, gerrymandering had been a serious problem in Canada.

Now obviously the US is not Canada, and the constitutional rights of states to govern their own process is different. However, states could adopt a similar solution if they wanted to.

Of course, you are overlooking my point: there is no agreed set of rules. And at this point, both sides have gamed the potential rules out and know what the outcomes will be.

There aren't any right now, but there could be.

I rather suspect the impossibility of finding a solution lies in the fact that each side, when it gets into power, now decides to perpetuate the system, hoping to remain in power. It is a failure of political will, not from some inherent impossibility. It would be easy enough to establish neutral rules (others have done so) if the motivation existed.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2021, 04:46:24 PM
The problem on both sides in the US (Both-sides-ism! :o) is far too much short-term thinking.  Yes, if you gerry-mander when you're in power you can "lock-in" your advantage... for awhile.  If you refuse to consider a judicial nomination you can "take" a USSC seat.  If you blow up the fillibuster or pack the Supreme court you can get to take advantage of your momentary position of power.

But these things never last.  In particular with gerry-mandering - depending on how aggressively you do it if there's even just a moderate shift in public opinion the gerry-mander can suddenly work against you.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on February 09, 2021, 04:49:54 PM
California draws the districts with a group of 5 Dems, 5 Repubs, and 4 non-affiliated.  It seems to work fairly well, in a state where the overwhelming blue coast could swamp the eastern counties with wildly drawn districts there is instead regional and mostly compact districts that seem to represent the makeup of the populace.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 04:56:12 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 09, 2021, 04:46:24 PM
The problem on both sides in the US (Both-sides-ism! :o) is far too much short-term thinking.  Yes, if you gerry-mander when you're in power you can "lock-in" your advantage... for awhile.  If you refuse to consider a judicial nomination you can "take" a USSC seat.  If you blow up the fillibuster or pack the Supreme court you can get to take advantage of your momentary position of power.

But these things never last.  In particular with gerry-mandering - depending on how aggressively you do it if there's even just a moderate shift in public opinion the gerry-mander can suddenly work against you.

I think this kind of played itself out in this last election in Texas :hmm:

The Republicans shifted the vote in their direction a few percentage points in 2020 from 2018 and the result? They lost one State Senate Seat and traded singular flips in the State House. Somehow they managed to lose ground despite winning a larger percentage. The same thing with the US House of Representatives in Texas. They shifted the vote in their favor and yet gained no seats. Status Quo of the Democrats at the gates remains...for now. We will see how they redraw things now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on February 09, 2021, 04:56:55 PM
A possible rule could be "no splitting counties amongst different districts" as well. Districts must include only entire counties, that leaves vastly less room for gerrymandering.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 09, 2021, 05:00:35 PM
Quote from: Malthus on February 09, 2021, 04:40:17 PM
There aren't any right now, but there could be.

I rather suspect the impossibility of finding a solution lies in the fact that each side, when it gets into power, now decides to perpetuate the system, hoping to remain in power. It is a failure of political will, not from some inherent impossibility. It would be easy enough to establish neutral rules (others have done so) if the motivation existed.

It isn't just the majority taking advantage of the minority. A very notorious example is republicans supporting majority minority districts, which elements of the democrats also support. Obviously grouping very democratic demographics (generally black people) in a handful of districts is how you would want to gerrymander to create a republican map, but a lot of minorities support it as a way to get their own representation.

Also politicians are drawing their own boundaries, directly or indirectly. This is a very passionate subject for them. :) It seems unlikely they will turn it over to a third party voluntarily. It also limits the amount of effective gerrymandering -- super safe districts are theoretically counterproductive to the party in charge, but they still get drawn from time to time. :D
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 09, 2021, 05:40:54 PM
We had a funny gerrymandering case in BC years ago.  A cabinet minister's riding was redrawn so that it included a very narrow long territory which attached to the rest of her riding.  It was a corridor of very high value homes in more downscale neighborhood.    It became known as Gracie's Finger.  When that government fell BC went with a non partisan commission similar to what Malthus described.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 06:47:01 PM
    Sen. Susan Collins of Maine
    Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana
    Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
    Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah
    Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska
    Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania

6 who voted impeachment trial constituiional
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2021, 07:23:57 PM
So the usual suspects plus Cassidy who I admit I don't know much about.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 09, 2021, 11:23:56 PM
Out of the 6, who will vote to actually impeach though?

4, maybe? Cassidy won't and Collins is a cunt.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 10, 2021, 12:43:58 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 06:47:01 PM
    Sen. Susan Collins of Maine
    Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana
    Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
    Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah
    Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska
    Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania

6 who voted impeachment trial constituiional

So are the remaining GOP senators saying that if an outgoing president engages in impeachable behavior and there's not enough time to go through an impeachment trial until after that president leaves office, then that president walks away without consequences? That would seem like a blank check to do whatever for any lame duck president.

(I understand of course that Republicans would happily reconsider their position if an outgoing Democrat president gave reason to impeach in the last week or two in office.)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 10, 2021, 02:02:47 AM
That is what it sounds like to me.

For myself, I think the Constitutional position to proceed is ironclad.  That those GOP are taking their stand there I think only further exposes their intellectual bankruptcy.  It is the legal foundation (incitement to insurrection) of the case, when it comes to actual conviction/acquittal phase, that is far more debatable, and thus would be a more defensible position to take one's stand.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 10, 2021, 04:12:21 AM
Quote from: Syt on February 10, 2021, 12:43:58 AM

So are the remaining GOP senators saying that if an outgoing president engages in impeachable behavior and there's not enough time to go through an impeachment trial until after that president leaves office, then that president walks away without consequences? That would seem like a blank check to do whatever for any lame duck president.

(I understand of course that Republicans would happily reconsider their position if an outgoing Democrat president gave reason to impeach in the last week or two in office.)

It doesn't seem like a blank check unless he is also somehow absolved from criminal charges.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 06:56:21 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 10, 2021, 02:02:47 AM
For myself, I think the Constitutional position to proceed is ironclad.  That those GOP are taking their stand there I think only further exposes their intellectual bankruptcy.  It is the legal foundation (incitement to insurrection) of the case, when it comes to actual conviction/acquittal phase, that is far more debatable, and thus would be a more defensible position to take one's stand.

I agree, but which vote do you think would be easier to explain in a primary?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 10, 2021, 07:14:44 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 06:56:21 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 10, 2021, 02:02:47 AM
For myself, I think the Constitutional position to proceed is ironclad.  That those GOP are taking their stand there I think only further exposes their intellectual bankruptcy.  It is the legal foundation (incitement to insurrection) of the case, when it comes to actual conviction/acquittal phase, that is far more debatable, and thus would be a more defensible position to take one's stand.

I agree, but which vote do you think would be easier to explain in a primary?

Always nice when politicians make dumb decisions and take ridiculous positions because the reasonable way to act doesn't carry the vote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 10, 2021, 09:42:48 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 06:56:21 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 10, 2021, 02:02:47 AM
For myself, I think the Constitutional position to proceed is ironclad.  That those GOP are taking their stand there I think only further exposes their intellectual bankruptcy.  It is the legal foundation (incitement to insurrection) of the case, when it comes to actual conviction/acquittal phase, that is far more debatable, and thus would be a more defensible position to take one's stand.

I agree, but which vote do you think would be easier to explain in a primary?

I doubt most senators are more concerned about primary challenges.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 10, 2021, 04:20:33 PM
So a sad update on my life/the Biden presidency.

As some of you may remember, I bet $20k on the presidential election, mostly in low risk bets. Ended up winning about $4.5k. Kept rolling that over into other bets on other current events, and got up to $28k total ($8k of profits).

I have now bet most of that on cabinet selections. But it looks like there is more republican opposition to the education and EPA appointments than I thought, and I thought that there would be more cabinet approvals than there have been (I have $1,700 just on Gina Raimondo getting approved by March 1, and after I made that bet Ted Cruz put a hold on her nomination). I may be fucked and losing all my post election profits. :( Even worse, since I made some of these bets when they seemed low risk, I have almost no upside.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 10, 2021, 04:47:11 PM
The House always wins in the end. You should know that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on February 11, 2021, 10:40:04 AM
Here's a bit of advice for you: gambling is for idiots. :sleep:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Habbaku on February 11, 2021, 10:50:08 AM
 :hmm: But an idiot won't take your advice.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on February 11, 2021, 10:52:26 AM
 :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 11, 2021, 11:38:21 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 11, 2021, 10:40:04 AM
Here's a bit of advice for you: gambling is for idiots. :sleep:

Or for entertainment.  Accept that you will lose money and calculate whether the entertainment is worth the cost, just like any other entertainment.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 11:51:03 AM
I think I might be able to make money. We will see how bad the carnage is on this very bad series of bets I've made, but if it isn't too bad I'll stick with it. Only I'll be a lot more conservative and update you guys periodically if I'm winning or losing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 11, 2021, 11:53:07 AM
Gambling is a very bad investment dude...unless you already know the results but you don't strike me as the 21st century Arnold Rothstein.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 11:56:00 AM
Gambling with no vig is a break even activity if the odds are fair.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2021, 11:56:17 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 11, 2021, 11:53:07 AM
Gambling is a very bad investment dude...unless you already know the results but you don't strike me as the 21st century Arnold Rothstein.

Some might even say it is not an investment at all.  :D
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 12:10:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 11, 2021, 11:53:07 AM
Gambling is a very bad investment dude...unless you already know the results but you don't strike me as the 21st century Arnold Rothstein.

We shall see--though if I get crushed here I'll probably drop out. I will post updates.  :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 11, 2021, 01:34:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 11:56:00 AM
Gambling with no vig is a break even activity if the odds are fair.
:yes:  And sometimes, very rarely, but sometimes some players know enough to make gambling an investment for them (i.e. a +EV risky activity).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on February 11, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
No vig, what's that? You almost always have a service provider.

Like in online poker. If you are breaking even with other players you are in negative thanks to rake.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 01:43:40 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 11, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
No vig, what's that? You almost always have a service provider.

Bar bets, online forum bets, etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 02:05:12 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 11, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
No vig, what's that? You almost always have a service provider.

Like in online poker. If you are breaking even with other players you are in negative thanks to rake.

I used to make money playing online poker. Extremely extremely limited money. I wanted to see if I could make money with just the house money, so years ago when poker was the rage I signed up on a site that gave like a free $10 without deposit and went to low stakes tables. After a month I had like $40 and then gave up.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 11, 2021, 08:42:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 11:51:03 AM
I think I might be able to make money. We will see how bad the carnage is on this very bad series of bets I've made, but if it isn't too bad I'll stick with it. Only I'll be a lot more conservative and update you guys periodically if I'm winning or losing.
didn't you have an option of offsetting these potential losses by taking opposite bets, sort of like how we close a deal on futures?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 12, 2021, 05:50:08 AM
Quote from: viper37 on February 11, 2021, 08:42:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 11:51:03 AM
I think I might be able to make money. We will see how bad the carnage is on this very bad series of bets I've made, but if it isn't too bad I'll stick with it. Only I'll be a lot more conservative and update you guys periodically if I'm winning or losing.
didn't you have an option of offsetting these potential losses by taking opposite bets, sort of like how we close a deal on futures?

Yes, you can bet on both sides to reduce risk, but why would you do that? You get 90% of gains and 100% of losses (after taking into account the vig), so that is the one guaranteed way to lose.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 12, 2021, 08:15:48 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Me6MfRG58A

Biden has 62% approval out of the gate.

That's encouraging.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 12, 2021, 03:37:11 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/media/tj-ducklo-white-house-suspended/index.html

Not a scandal insofar as any impact on Biden or his presidency, but I think it easily can be said that if this occurred with a Trump staffer, the calls for a firing would be much more publicized, and I think justified in either case.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 12, 2021, 03:42:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 12, 2021, 03:37:11 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/media/tj-ducklo-white-house-suspended/index.html

Not a scandal insofar as any impact on Biden or his presidency, but I think it easily can be said that if this occurred with a Trump staffer, the calls for a firing would be much more publicized, and I think justified in either case.

It would also be pushed off the front page within 12 hours after Trump tweeted something much worse, and with poor spelling and grammar to boot.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 12, 2021, 06:58:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 12, 2021, 05:50:08 AM
Quote from: viper37 on February 11, 2021, 08:42:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 11:51:03 AM
I think I might be able to make money. We will see how bad the carnage is on this very bad series of bets I've made, but if it isn't too bad I'll stick with it. Only I'll be a lot more conservative and update you guys periodically if I'm winning or losing.
didn't you have an option of offsetting these potential losses by taking opposite bets, sort of like how we close a deal on futures?

Yes, you can bet on both sides to reduce risk, but why would you do that? You get 90% of gains and 100% of losses (after taking into account the vig), so that is the one guaranteed way to lose.
it's called cutting your losses.  Like selling an underporming stock.  You sure are losing money, but not all of it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 12, 2021, 07:29:55 PM
When is losing less money better than losing no money?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 12, 2021, 09:57:50 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 12, 2021, 07:29:55 PM
When is losing less money better than losing no money?

When trying to lose no money will end up losing you more money.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 12, 2021, 10:18:29 PM
Err, to lose no money all he has to do is not make a bet.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 12, 2021, 10:59:04 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 12, 2021, 09:57:50 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 12, 2021, 07:29:55 PM
When is losing less money better than losing no money?

When trying to lose no money will end up losing you more money.
This.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 12, 2021, 10:59:23 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 12, 2021, 10:18:29 PM
Err, to lose no money all he has to do is not make a bet.
But it's been made already.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 13, 2021, 09:34:08 AM
Quote from: viper37 on February 12, 2021, 06:58:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 12, 2021, 05:50:08 AM
Quote from: viper37 on February 11, 2021, 08:42:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 11, 2021, 11:51:03 AM
I think I might be able to make money. We will see how bad the carnage is on this very bad series of bets I've made, but if it isn't too bad I'll stick with it. Only I'll be a lot more conservative and update you guys periodically if I'm winning or losing.
didn't you have an option of offsetting these potential losses by taking opposite bets, sort of like how we close a deal on futures?

Yes, you can bet on both sides to reduce risk, but why would you do that? You get 90% of gains and 100% of losses (after taking into account the vig), so that is the one guaranteed way to lose.
it's called cutting your losses.  Like selling an underporming stock.  You sure are losing money, but not all of it.

I could just sell my bet at the current value rather than by an opposite bet. Taking an opposite bet gets charged a vig--no vig involved in closing a bet in a losing position.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 14, 2021, 03:55:19 PM
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1360963559820320773?s=20

QuoteLindsey Graham suggests Kamala Harris will be impeached if Republicans take back the House next year
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 14, 2021, 04:03:26 PM
He's not wrong with his underlying point though...would anybody really be surprised if the current crop of Republicans wouldn't just start throwing impeachments willy-nilly?  Even if they're spurious, and DOA in the Senate, it will always be a good way to either grab headlines, or kill off some other political embarassment.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on February 14, 2021, 04:28:59 PM
All Benghazi all the time.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 14, 2021, 04:34:36 PM
They could impeach Hilary Clinton for that, even as a former SoS, sure.  A good bone to throw to the base.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2021, 04:35:36 PM
What is he accusing Harris of?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 14, 2021, 04:37:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 14, 2021, 04:34:36 PM
They could impeach Hilary Clinton for that, even as a former SoS, sure.  A good bone to throw to the base.

90% of Senate republicans have already voted that holding such a trial after the individual has left office is unconstitutional. They couldn't hold a trial because that would be transparently hypocritical.

:P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: mongers on February 14, 2021, 04:39:52 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2021, 04:35:36 PM
What is he accusing Harris of?

Un-American activity, that is her parent's because they both indulge in affairs with foreigners, something no true-blue Trumpist would ever consider.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 14, 2021, 07:02:26 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2021, 04:35:36 PM
What is he accusing Harris of?

She sent out a tweet supporting a NGO in Minnesota that raises bail money for BLM demonstrators.  That same organization bailed out someone was than charged again for possession of a controlled substance while also in possession of a firearm.  THE HORROR

Her real crime is of course something very different.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 14, 2021, 10:14:52 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 14, 2021, 04:37:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 14, 2021, 04:34:36 PM
They could impeach Hilary Clinton for that, even as a former SoS, sure.  A good bone to throw to the base.

90% of Senate republicans have already voted that holding such a trial after the individual has left office is unconstitutional. They couldn't hold a trial because that would be transparently hypocritical.

:P

They would just figure that, plus their Supreme Court hypocrisy would be like multiplying by zero, and thus cancel each other out.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2021, 10:17:48 PM
I don't think one can be successful in politics without being comfortable with hypocrisy.  :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on February 15, 2021, 04:55:41 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2021, 04:35:36 PM
What is he accusing Harris of?

It's a weird coincidence that the GOP always zones in on people who are women and/or non-white. Uncanny.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2021, 10:05:21 AM
Booty Judge confirmed.  First openly gay cabinet member, for people who care about that sort of thing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on February 15, 2021, 10:23:23 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2021, 10:05:21 AM
Booty Judge confirmed.  First openly gay cabinet member, for people who care about that sort of thing.
Who has been confirmed - as Richard Grenell loves to point out even though it feels like it's drawing attention to the fact that the Senate would not confirm him (and not for reasons of homosexuality) :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2021, 10:28:26 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 15, 2021, 10:23:23 AM
Who has been confirmed - as Richard Grenell loves to point out even though it feels like it's drawing attention to the fact that the Senate would not confirm him (and not for reasons of homosexuality) :lol:

I have no clue what you're talking about. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on February 15, 2021, 10:31:06 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2021, 10:28:26 AM
I have no clue what you're talking about. :)
Richard Grenell was made Acting Director of National Intelligence by Trump.

He's the first openly gay cabinet member. But he was never confirmed by the Senate for reasons.

So Buttigieg is only the first who's been confirmed :)

Edit: Grenell points this out a lot in his ongoing LGBT for Trump advocacy :bleeding:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2021, 10:33:30 AM
grazie
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 15, 2021, 10:36:26 AM
Isn't that what the T stands for?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 15, 2021, 11:42:54 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 15, 2021, 10:36:26 AM
Isn't that what the T stands for?

I have mixed feelings on this idea of yours that we should make "Trump" the new term for being transgender. :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 16, 2021, 01:38:02 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 14, 2021, 07:02:26 PM
Her real crime is of course something very different.

I won't asked how you figured that ;) , but do you think Graham came up with this idea on his own, or was he wispered something by someone who's now living in Florida?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:16:08 PM
Unsurprisingly, the much lauded Lincoln Project has collapsed because of sexual harassment allegations, a toxic work environment, and the funneling of most of the funds raised to board members' own businesses and projects.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/15/inside-lincoln-project-claims-harassment-sexism-toxic-workplace/4483922001/

That Regeneron ad was good though.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 16, 2021, 03:20:57 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:16:08 PM
Unsurprisingly, the much lauded Lincoln Project has collapsed because of sexual harassment allegations, a toxic work environment, and the funneling of most of the funds raised to board members' own businesses and projects.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/15/inside-lincoln-project-claims-harassment-sexism-toxic-workplace/4483922001/

That Regeneron ad was good though.

Why do you say "unsurprisingly"?

The sexual harassment allegations are not good, but the sending money to companies controlled by the controllers is basically how every PAC ever operates.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:28:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 16, 2021, 03:20:57 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:16:08 PM
Unsurprisingly, the much lauded Lincoln Project has collapsed because of sexual harassment allegations, a toxic work environment, and the funneling of most of the funds raised to board members' own businesses and projects.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/15/inside-lincoln-project-claims-harassment-sexism-toxic-workplace/4483922001/

That Regeneron ad was good though.

Why do you say "unsurprisingly"?

The sexual harassment allegations are not good, but the sending money to companies controlled by the controllers is basically how every PAC ever operates.

Some of the founders were kind of scummy and the whole thing smelled of a grift, hence the "unsurprisingly"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 16, 2021, 07:09:19 PM
Sounds like it is now the Benjamin Butler Project.  :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2021, 07:28:07 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:28:42 PM
Some of the founders were kind of scummy and the whole thing smelled of a grift, hence the "unsurprisingly"

I don't get how you think it was a grift.  They said donate money to us and we will make ads that attack Trump and the current GOP.  People gave them money, and they made ads that attacked Trump and the current GOP.  Did they fraudulently promise to make the ads for free?

Can't say anything about the other members, but I like Steve Schmidt.  He gave heartfelt, honest interviews in the aftermath of the McCain/Palin loss.  He and the others had a great interview on 60 Minutes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 16, 2021, 08:13:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2021, 07:28:07 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 03:28:42 PM
Some of the founders were kind of scummy and the whole thing smelled of a grift, hence the "unsurprisingly"

I don't get how you think it was a grift.  They said donate money to us and we will make ads that attack Trump and the current GOP.  People gave them money, and they made ads that attacked Trump and the current GOP.  Did they fraudulently promise to make the ads for free?

Can't say anything about the other members, but I like Steve Schmidt.  He gave heartfelt, honest interviews in the aftermath of the McCain/Palin loss.  He and the others had a great interview on 60 Minutes.
I'm guessing that the money taken in by the founders and their companies is not commensurate with the services provided by them.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2021, 08:54:35 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 16, 2021, 08:13:48 PM
I'm guessing that the money taken in by the founders and their companies is not commensurate with the services provided by them.

Why do you guess that?  You're starting with the conclusion and working backwards.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on February 16, 2021, 08:59:26 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 16, 2021, 08:13:48 PM
I'm guessing that the money taken in by the founders and their companies is not commensurate with the services provided by them.

Isn't that how PACs work? Like isn't the bulk of the GOP funding and grifting apparatus centred on taking donors' money, providing some service for it but mostly pocketing the cash or hiring friends and associates for cushy consulting positions? I thought that was how the whole system worked...?

I guess you're more idealistic than I am on this. Weird.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: FunkMonk on February 16, 2021, 09:22:56 PM
I mean, institutionalized grifting is still, uh, grifting.

I don't blame them for making a quick buck taking people's money to make dumb internet memes. Easy money, sure, I'd probably do the same if I were them. Still makes me a grifter.

I would just save myself the pain and leave out all the sexual harassment and cover-up.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2021, 09:54:39 PM
That doesn't make you a grifter any more than a little girl running a lemonade stand is a grifter.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 16, 2021, 10:02:10 PM
I'm not understanding how one gets from the fact that the donors voluntarily donated money and seemed to be satisfied with what their money bought to the claim that this was all just a grift.

I think that Yi is right; people are starting with the conclusion that this was a grift and working back to claim that all of the evidence just magically provides evidence that it was a grift, because reasons.

It seems to me that the whole organization was so ad hoc that pretty much any of the founders could claim that "their understanding" of the deal wasn't what the deal looked like in the end.  You often see that in cases of unexpected success in a loosely-organized endeaver.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Larch on February 22, 2021, 09:42:28 AM
QuoteRepublican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine joins Democrat Joe Manchin, saying she also will vote against Neera Tanden as Biden's budget director. Says Tanden showed "animosity" on Twitter, and deleting her past offensive tweets "raises concerns about her commitment to transparency."

Cancel culture!  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 12:19:35 PM
Quote from: me, beginning of the monthImagine a counterfactual. Mitch McConnell has a majority and sets a pace for approving nominees. He says, "We'll approve 7 in the first 3 weeks of Biden's term, take a week or so off, and then take up others. Seven in month one seems like a good number. I don't see much benefit in going faster than that." Democrats would be losing their shit that he was obstructing the Biden administration.

It is also suspicious that the covid relief package is destined to come back from the house only after the senate trial is expected to end. It isn't a stretch to wonder if holding the trial now is slowing down that package.

Trump isn't going into the rear view mirror. He is destined to be acquitted and is probably the most likely person to be the GOP nominee in 2024. My hunch is that some of the procedural issues -- like witnesses -- are being decided based on Democratic senators seeing the same pressures I'm pointing out and just wanting the trial to end as fast as possible. If you put this off a few months, you could be much more thorough. Or--even better--you could piggy back off of a criminal trial.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
The impeachment trial is just an excuse; the Senate can walk and chew gum at the same time if it wants to.  If Zombie Scalia came to life, McConnell would get a vote to have him reinstated to the Court through committee and on the floor in nano-seconds, even if was December 24 and a Martian-Jewish alliance was assaulting DC with orbital space lasers..

Here we are three weeks later, with only 7 cabinet positions confirmed, and a bullshit senate trial at a historically breakneck pace without witnesses.

It turns out the Senate could not walk and chew gum at the same time. You willing to admit I was right on this?

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 12:39:57 PM
Are there any studies measuring the IQ of Trumpists vs the general population?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: garbon on February 22, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 12:39:57 PM
Are there any studies measuring the IQ of Trumpists vs the general population?

To what end?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:04:28 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 12:19:35 PM
Quote from: me, beginning of the monthImagine a counterfactual. Mitch McConnell has a majority and sets a pace for approving nominees. He says, "We'll approve 7 in the first 3 weeks of Biden's term, take a week or so off, and then take up others. Seven in month one seems like a good number. I don't see much benefit in going faster than that." Democrats would be losing their shit that he was obstructing the Biden administration.

It is also suspicious that the covid relief package is destined to come back from the house only after the senate trial is expected to end. It isn't a stretch to wonder if holding the trial now is slowing down that package.

Trump isn't going into the rear view mirror. He is destined to be acquitted and is probably the most likely person to be the GOP nominee in 2024. My hunch is that some of the procedural issues -- like witnesses -- are being decided based on Democratic senators seeing the same pressures I'm pointing out and just wanting the trial to end as fast as possible. If you put this off a few months, you could be much more thorough. Or--even better--you could piggy back off of a criminal trial.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2021, 10:18:26 AM
The impeachment trial is just an excuse; the Senate can walk and chew gum at the same time if it wants to.  If Zombie Scalia came to life, McConnell would get a vote to have him reinstated to the Court through committee and on the floor in nano-seconds, even if was December 24 and a Martian-Jewish alliance was assaulting DC with orbital space lasers..

Here we are three weeks later, with only 7 cabinet positions confirmed, and a bullshit senate trial at a historically breakneck pace without witnesses.

It turns out the Senate could not walk and chew gum at the same time. You willing to admit I was right on this?



No, the claim is that the Senate can do something, the reality is that the Senate is not doing something.

I am 100% certain that absent a trial, McConnel would be doing the exact same thing in regards to holding up nominations.

McConnell is a lying, deceitful piece of shit. He has shown that he will say he will do something, and then turn around and immediately do the opposite the moment whoever he "convinced" agrees.

So if McConnel CAN hold up nominations, he will do so. It matters not whether there is a trial going on or not.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 22, 2021, 01:10:30 PM
Quote from: The Larch on February 22, 2021, 09:42:28 AM
QuoteRepublican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine joins Democrat Joe Manchin, saying she also will vote against Neera Tanden as Biden's budget director. Says Tanden showed "animosity" on Twitter, and deleting her past offensive tweets "raises concerns about her commitment to transparency."

Cancel culture!  :P

Much as I hate Twitter, this is such a Boomer thing to do.    :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 01:21:54 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:04:28 PM
No, the claim is that the Senate can do something, the reality is that the Senate is not doing something.

I am 100% certain that absent a trial, McConnel would be doing the exact same thing in regards to holding up nominations.

McConnell is a lying, deceitful piece of shit. He has shown that he will say he will do something, and then turn around and immediately do the opposite the moment whoever he "convinced" agrees.

So if McConnel CAN hold up nominations, he will do so. It matters not whether there is a trial going on or not.

My claim was it was stupid to have the trial when they did because the result would be that we would get to this point with only 7 cabinet members approved and with a rushed trial (because the trial would table everything else requiring senate floor time, including future cabinet approvals and covid relief). That is exactly what happened.

I've been following this extremely closely and the republicans have not been obstructionist on the nominees so far. Seven have been approved and half the republican senators have either voted against no nominees or only one. Only Mayorkas has been contested and I think the lowest vote total besides him was Blinken with 78 votes. McConnell himself has only voted against Mayorkas.

This is an epically slow pace and is due to:

-Republicans weren't holding many hearings while Trump was still president because Trump was claiming he won,
-A significant amount of floor time was devoted to impeachment and matters around impeachment, which the republicans did not cooperate regarding,
-Time was spent around covid relief, which republicans fought (and continue to fight) tooth and nail,
-The senate decided to take a week's vacation last week.

Due to the way senate rules are structured, it would be very difficult to conduct contested floor business with a Senate trial of the president ongoing. When the Senate voted to approve witnesses, some knowledgeable republicans were absolutely gleeful that this was going to stall covid relief and the approval of any new cabinet positions for weeks and maybe longer. It is why it is very believable that some senate democrats lobbied the house prosecutors not to call witnesses: if they had it really would have delayed a lot of business further than it already has been.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:31:14 PM
So you agree with me that they could in fact do both, they simply chose not to - thanks.

And no, the Senate rules do not make it difficult, GOP obstruction makes it difficult. Absent a trial, they would be doing the exact same thing, and I don't buy for a second your "just so" story about how their ability to obstruct and delay is ONLY based on their being a trial.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on February 22, 2021, 01:38:39 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:31:14 PM
So you agree with me that they could in fact do both, they simply chose not to - thanks.

And no, the Senate rules do not make it difficult, GOP obstruction makes it difficult. Absent a trial, they would be doing the exact same thing, and I don't buy for a second your "just so" story about how their ability to obstruct and delay is ONLY based on their being a trial.

There's a pretty strong narrative that whenever the GOP obstructs the Democrats, it's the Democrat's fault for being stupid. If they'd just changed their approach or rhetoric to match the one favoured by the speaker, they could've outmanoeuvred the GOP for sure.

Personally, while I'd love to see a Democrat masterstroke to circumvent the GOP's obstruction I believe the responsibility for the GOP's obstruction lies with the GOP.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 01:40:57 PM
Good news, Berkut, feels well enough to post
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 02:05:22 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:31:14 PM
So you agree with me that they could in fact do both, they simply chose not to - thanks.

And no, the Senate rules do not make it difficult, GOP obstruction makes it difficult. Absent a trial, they would be doing the exact same thing, and I don't buy for a second your "just so" story about how their ability to obstruct and delay is ONLY based on their being a trial.

I don't agree with you and don't think you understand the senate rules on holds and cloture for nominations.

Joe Biden became president on January 20. There have been four full weeks since then. In that time, 1 week was completely dedicated to the trial, and 1 week completely dedicated to vacation.

The other two weeks included the first round of passing a covid relief bill that was $1.6 trillion. The republicans fought that tooth and nail and the floor fight didn't end until after 5 in the morning. They offered over 700 amendments and in the end it passed with a 50-50 vote and Harris being the tie breaker.

Schumer is the majority leader and he has prioritized covid relief (no argument with that) over nominations. It is the other use of time that is disappointing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 22, 2021, 02:06:24 PM
Well the point is that at least it was short. So much business still to achieve in such a short time. I hope by this summer we can look back at this period as a success. We'll see.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 03:14:47 PM
The problem with saying, "republicans are obstructionist" as the default for anything behind schedule is that it perversely destroys incentives to cooperate for republicans (why cooperate if we don't get credit) and also incentives for leadership from democrats (why work hard to push stuff through if we can just blame republicans).

It is insane that I lay out for you people that:
-if the trial was to be held, we would get to this date with very limited cabinet positions filled,
-the trial would need to be rushed and probably have no witnesses because the calendar there are too many competing priorities.

Here we are with just 7 cabinet positions filled and with a rushed trial without witnesses and all we get are "republicans sure are obstructing shit!" It isn't republicans fault--it is a fault of democratic leadership that they scheduled the trial a few weeks into Biden's administration when it could have been delayed until the middle of the year.

Republicans have not been obstructing most nominees--so far only Mayorkas was contested--my guess is as good as yours as to why--probably McConnell is calculating that they will be better served not to fight everything but instead cooperate and save their powder for fights they can win.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on February 22, 2021, 03:22:31 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 22, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 12:39:57 PM
Are there any studies measuring the IQ of Trumpists vs the general population?

To what end?

Smugness, obviously.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 03:29:38 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 03:14:47 PM
The problem with saying, "republicans are obstructionist" as the default for anything behind schedule is that it perversely destroys incentives to cooperate for republicans (why cooperate if we don't get credit) and also incentives for leadership from democrats (why work hard to push stuff through if we can just blame republicans).

It is insane that I lay out for you people that:
-if the trial was to be held, we would get to this date with very limited cabinet positions filled,
-the trial would need to be rushed and probably have no witnesses because the calendar there are too many competing priorities.

Here we are with just 7 cabinet positions filled and with a rushed trial without witnesses and all we get are "republicans sure are obstructing shit!" It isn't republicans fault--it is a fault of democratic leadership that they scheduled the trial a few weeks into Biden's administration when it could have been delayed until the middle of the year.

Republicans have not been obstructing most nominees--so far only Mayorkas was contested--my guess is as good as yours as to why--probably McConnell is calculating that they will be better served not to fight everything but instead cooperate and save their powder for fights they can win.

So the Republicans have not been obstructing nominees, but they have been obstructing other things, and those other things have stopped the nominations.

But this is the Dems fault, for wanting to hold Trump accountable now, instead of pretending like murdering cops while trying to murder members of COngress is no big deal and can wait until later...

What is insane is the arrogance of predicting the utterly predictable, having everyone say "Yes, that is predictable, but there are good reason to do it anyway" and then slobbering all over yourself about how brilliant you are for predicting that the sun would rise in the East and that might mean it gets more light out.

If there was no Senate trial, McConnel would be doing everything he can to obstruct everything he can. If there is a trial, he will do the exact same thing. The difference is in details, and I have seen nothing that suggests that those details matter. You are so impressed with your ability to predict that yes, McConnell and the lickspittle pieces of GOP shit would suceed in doing the onlly thing they know how to do. Nobody disputed it. The only dispute was the claim that there is just no other possible way it could have turned out, when even you admit that is not true.

The Republicans could have held the trial AND not been onstructionists assholes. They chose not to. Why we would assume they would not be obstructionist assholes anyway, that is the part where, as usual, you fail.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 03:30:11 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 22, 2021, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 12:39:57 PM
Are there any studies measuring the IQ of Trumpists vs the general population?

To what end?

more of a beginning than an end.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 03:31:07 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 22, 2021, 01:38:39 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 01:31:14 PM
So you agree with me that they could in fact do both, they simply chose not to - thanks.

And no, the Senate rules do not make it difficult, GOP obstruction makes it difficult. Absent a trial, they would be doing the exact same thing, and I don't buy for a second your "just so" story about how their ability to obstruct and delay is ONLY based on their being a trial.

There's a pretty strong narrative that whenever the GOP obstructs the Democrats, it's the Demcrat's fault for being stupid. If they'd just changed their approach or rhetoric to match the one favoured by the speaker, they could've outmanoeuvred the GOP for sure.

Personally, while I'd love to see a Democrat masterstroke to circumvent the GOP's obstruction I believe the responsibility for the GOP's obstruction lies with the GOP.

Indeed. McConnell is a master at being a lying, deceitful piece of shit. I see no reason to pretend that of all the times he has done the same thing over and over and over again, if ONLY the Dems had gone along with the GOP on THIS occasion, they would have totally tricked him into being a decent human being!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 03:52:34 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 03:29:38 PM
So the Republicans have not been obstructing nominees, but they have been obstructing other things, and those other things have stopped the nominations.

The republicans are in the minority and nothing that requires a 60 vote threshold to break a filibuster has come before the Senate since Biden became president. Their ability to "obstruct" thus far is somewhat limited - they made covid relief round 1 very painful and did all they could to stop Mayorkas.

It is a bit disingenuous to call fighting a $1.6 trillion covid relief bill that the entire caucus voted against as being "obstructionist"--versus fighting a bill they don't like.

Quote
But this is the Dems fault, for wanting to hold Trump accountable now, instead of pretending like murdering cops while trying to murder members of COngress is no big deal and can wait until later...

The trial was 1/3 the length of the shortest previous trial and ended in acquittal. There is now going to be an additional congressional inquiry because the impeachment and trial was completely half assed.

Is there going to be any criminal prosecution of Trump regarding the events? If so, has the criminal justice system decided it was no big deal because they haven't prosecuted him already? Why did the Senate need to try Trump and reach a verdict in 5 days in February versus say taking the month of May?

QuoteWhat is insane is the arrogance of predicting the utterly predictable, having everyone say "Yes, that is predictable, but there are good reason to do it anyway" and then slobbering all over yourself about how brilliant you are for predicting that the sun would rise in the East and that might mean it gets more light out.

If there was no Senate trial, McConnel would be doing everything he can to obstruct everything he can. If there is a trial, he will do the exact same thing. The difference is in details, and I have seen nothing that suggests that those details matter. You are so impressed with your ability to predict that yes, McConnell and the lickspittle pieces of GOP shit would suceed in doing the onlly thing they know how to do. Nobody disputed it. The only dispute was the claim that there is just no other possible way it could have turned out, when even you admit that is not true.

The Republicans could have held the trial AND not been onstructionists assholes. They chose not to. Why we would assume they would not be obstructionist assholes anyway, that is the part where, as usual, you fail.

You fucking idiot. The Senate took a week long recess last week. Schumer is the majority leader. Keep believing it is all the fault of republicans.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 04:31:04 PM
So you are now claiming that they took a recess because there was an impeachment trial, and they HAD TO TAKE THAT RECESS because there was an impeachment trial, and absent an impeachment trial, there would not have been a recess?

YOU are the one claiming everything is all about the impeachment trial. One would think pointing out that the Senate decided it needed a week off would argue against blaming everything on the trial.

It's very odd how selective you are in how you evaluate data. Oh wait.....no it isn't. It is utterly predictable.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:23:03 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 04:31:04 PM
So you are now claiming that they took a recess because there was an impeachment trial, and they HAD TO TAKE THAT RECESS because there was an impeachment trial, and absent an impeachment trial, there would not have been a recess?

What could possibly lead you to conclude that?

The recess is not because of the impeachment trial (only an idiot would think that). But that is one of just 4 full weeks that have transpired since the inauguration.

If you want to spend time on covid relief (justifiably), and a week on an impossibly rushed impeachment trial that borders on a show rather than something of substance, that week of recess is going to put you at a historically slow pace of cabinet approvals.

You are blaming McConnell and Republican obstructionism for the super slow pace of cabinet approvals. I'm telling you that you are wrong and that a giant chunk of time was spent on the trial and recess. Of the other two weeks a chunk was spent on a $1.6 trillion covid relief bill.

You are a simp if you are buying the slowness is due to republican obstructionism.

Quote
YOU are the one claiming everything is all about the impeachment trial.

Certainly not! I'm not claiming that at all.

[/quote]
One would think pointing out that the Senate decided it needed a week off would argue against blaming everything on the trial.

It's very odd how selective you are in how you evaluate data. Oh wait.....no it isn't. It is utterly predictable.
[/quote]

How I interpret the data? You are a fucking idiot. I looked at the calendar and could see that if they scheduled a trial that:
a) it would have to be wrapped up very quickly because apart from cabinet approvals there is also a revote needed on covid relief,
b) the recess was already scheduled and LOL at Senators canceling their vacation,
c) even a one week trial would produce a historically delayed cabinet.

I thought a better alternative would be to delay the trial. Of course that didn't happen, and JR was like "the senate can walk and chew gum at the same time".

Turns out I was right on the money. Sucks for the people entitled to some of the billions in aid that need an approved cabinet member to get it to them, or the people in legal limbo if they have to return to federal prison, but it is what it is and Berkut is blaming Mitch McConnell.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 22, 2021, 05:26:02 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:23:03 PM
Sucks for the people entitled to some of the billions in aid that need an approved cabinet member to get it to them

wut?  Do you know something about confirmation and cutting checks that I don't?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:33:01 PM
He knows everything about those things. And he will tell you all about it.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:40:41 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:23:03 PM

Turns out I was right on the money. Sucks for the people entitled to some of the billions in aid that need an approved cabinet member to get it to them, or the people in legal limbo if they have to return to federal prison, but it is what it is and Berkut is blaming Mitch McConnell.

The Senate CAN walk and chew gum at the same time, it just requires the Senate to actually decided to do so, which means that they senators have to decide to do their job instead of not doing their job.

You keep claiming that it was the trial, and absent the trial, nothing else would matter. Except you bring up them taking a recess. Well, they could have not taken a recess in the exact same manner they could have not had the trial - just decided to do so.

So why is it the trial that is at fault, while you keep mentioning other things?

They could have had the trial, AND gotten confirmations done, had they wanted to do so, and had Senate leadership in the minority decided to do so - they didn't, which is entirely predictable.

It's funny how you are pretending to not know that all these confirmations could have been done prior to Jan. 20th anyway - when McConnell still controlled the Senate. Of course he did not, because your dear McConnell is a fucking douchebag, and now you are sitting here blaming his refusal to do his job on the Dems.

Pathetic. There is one reason and one reason only there has not been the normal confirmations done - because McConnell did not act when he was supposed to do so, safe knowing that his faithful would invent all kinds of reasons why it was actually someone else fault.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:44:36 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 22, 2021, 05:26:02 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:23:03 PM
Sucks for the people entitled to some of the billions in aid that need an approved cabinet member to get it to them

wut?  Do you know something about confirmation and cutting checks that I don't?

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/02/18/the-biden-backlog-491804

QuoteThe Agriculture Department's Covid relief payments to farmers, for example, are on hold until Vilsack is confirmed. The Justice Department's review of a last-minute Trump administration legal opinion stating that federal inmates must be sent from home confinement back to prison once the pandemic is over can't be completed until MERRICK GARLAND is confirmed as attorney general.

The Biden administration has largely run their pandemic response out of the White House but the delayed confirmation of XAVIER BECERRA as Health and Human Services secretary has slowed the department's effort to review what it can do about high prescription drug prices, according to a person familiar with the matter.

"Timely confirmation of the President's deeply qualified and crisis-tested nominees is more critical than ever to defeating the pandemic, putting the American people back to work, ensuring families have food on the table, and re-opening our schools," ANDREW BATES, a transition spokesman, said in a statement.

Vilsack's confirmation delay has been particularly consequential, holding up billions of dollars in relief payments to farmers and giving some farm-state lawmakers anxiety.

The Agriculture Department suspended the checks after Biden's inauguration as part of a broader regulatory freeze, which is standard practice in a new administration.

"There are a lot of important decisions awaiting feedback from an eventual Secretary of Agriculture, including the direction of the [farm aid] program," MATT HERRICK, an Agriculture Department spokesman, said in a statement.

The Senate Agriculture Committee tried to fast-track Vilsack's nomination, citing the need for him to review the relief efforts. The committee approved his nomination hours after the hearing — an abnormally fast turnaround — but he still hasn't received a vote on the Senate floor.

That's left Vilsack — and the farmers who were counting on the aid money — with no choice but to wait. (Local Agriculture Department offices are still taking applications, but they're not mailing any checks.)

The Senate is expected to vote on Vilsack's nomination when senators return next week.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:33:01 PM
He knows everything about those things. And he will tell you all about it.

I don't know everything, but I know more than you, obviously.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:51:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:33:01 PM
He knows everything about those things. And he will tell you all about it.

I don't know everything, but I know more than you, obviously.

No, you only know what you need to know to confirm your defense of Moscow Mitch. The rest you just ignore. Classic cognitive dissonance.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 22, 2021, 05:59:54 PM
Fredo, I draw a different conclusion than you do.  I don't see anything there about a legal requirement for the SecAg to be confirmed before those checks are sent.  What it looks like to me is Biden holding up money to a Republican constituency in order to speed Vilsack's confirmation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 06:03:29 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:40:41 PM

You keep claiming that it was the trial, and absent the trial, nothing else would matter. Except you bring up them taking a recess. Well, they could have not taken a recess in the exact same manner they could have not had the trial - just decided to do so.

So why is it the trial that is at fault, while you keep mentioning other things?

I brought up before the trial that this would happen. They would have a sham trial, then a recess, then a big cabinet backlog. A proper trial would have probably taken a few weeks, and that is out of the question. They could have canceled the recess, but LOL.

QuoteThey could have had the trial, AND gotten confirmations done, had they wanted to do so, and had Senate leadership in the minority decided to do so - they didn't, which is entirely predictable.

No, actually they couldn't. They had recess last week.

QuoteIt's funny how you are pretending to not know that all these confirmations could have been done prior to Jan. 20th anyway - when McConnell still controlled the Senate. Of course he did not, because your dear McConnell is a fucking douchebag, and now you are sitting here blaming his refusal to do his job on the Dems.

Pathetic. There is one reason and one reason only there has not been the normal confirmations done - because McConnell did not act when he was supposed to do so, safe knowing that his faithful would invent all kinds of reasons why it was actually someone else fault.

I don't know that a nominee from an opposing party has ever been approved prior to the next inauguration. That said, McConnell absolutely could and should have been holding hearings prior to Biden being inaugurated. They did hold five hearings before but there should have been more and earlier. The Trump nonsense was obviously a problem.

But Schumer has to play the hand he is dealt, and two weeks have been spent on impeachment and recess. We will see if it changes, but Friday is possibly also going to be recess. The Senate didn't convene today after the vacation until 3 PM.

It is possible for McConnell to be an asshole and for Schumer to also be a lackluster majority leader providing poor support for the new administration, and unable/unwilling to lead a body walking and chewing gum at the same time. These are not mutually exclusive opinions.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:51:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:33:01 PM
He knows everything about those things. And he will tell you all about it.

I don't know everything, but I know more than you, obviously.

No, you only know what you need to know to confirm your defense of Moscow Mitch. The rest you just ignore. Classic cognitive dissonance.

Berkut, I'm going to speak to you from my heart. I want you to absorb what I'm saying, reflect on it for a few moments, and contemplate the possibility that it is true.

You are a useless fucking idiot.

Three weeks ago I was arguing it would be better for Schumer not to schedule the Senate trial in February. I gave several predictions on what I thought would happen if the trial was held in February, and why I thought a delayed trial would be advantageous. MM and others disagreed with me. Schumer apparently does not read m posts on languish, and the trial was held anyway. What I thought would happen has indeed happened, and so I'm making an "I told you so" post to those who disagreed with me earlier.

I'm not defending Mitch McConnell. This was about a decision point the democrats had weeks ago.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 06:24:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 22, 2021, 05:59:54 PM
Fredo, I draw a different conclusion than you do.  I don't see anything there about a legal requirement for the SecAg to be confirmed before those checks are sent.  What it looks like to me is Biden holding up money to a Republican constituency in order to speed Vilsack's confirmation.

That doesn't make sense, and it highlights that you guys don't follow the process. Vilsack was approved by the committee unanimously on February 2. The only think that needs to happen for him to be approved is for it to go to the senate floor for a vote. The holdup isn't republicans--no republicans have put a hold on the nomination.

If you look at a calendar, the second half of February 2 was dedicated to covid. There was some extra time used to approve the VA nominee. The next week was impeachment, then vacation. Vilsack is going to be approved tomorrow. All the pressure in the universe to republicans won't speed this up. Schumer just needed to schedule it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 07:14:53 PM
AF, you are going to a lot of trouble explaining why your bets didn't work out.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on February 22, 2021, 09:30:15 PM
I wonder if Joe Biden could get away with raising taxes and claim that China is paying them.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 04:21:03 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 22, 2021, 07:14:53 PM
AF, you are going to a lot of trouble explaining why your bets didn't work out.

We will see how bad the carnage gets. I'm spending a ton of time in the comment section spinning why the ultimate outcome will be worse than I bet on and then trying to escape some of my positions, and then if the price moves saying "oh wait I was think I missed some stuff, it will be better than we were thinking" and posting arguments in that direction to escape the others.

I thought I had the potential to really get hammered, because I was afraid that covid would come back to the Senate this week, but that isn't going to happen so the Senate is using this week to catch up on confirmations (most of the bets expire March 1 at midnight).

I had $1700 bet that Ramiando would be confirmed by midnight March 1--that seems very unlikely at this point. That is the one I'm going to take it on the chin.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2021, 05:28:27 AM
Sooo.... the dollar seems to have crashed a bit? :unsure:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 08:51:45 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:51:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 22, 2021, 05:33:01 PM
He knows everything about those things. And he will tell you all about it.

I don't know everything, but I know more than you, obviously.

No, you only know what you need to know to confirm your defense of Moscow Mitch. The rest you just ignore. Classic cognitive dissonance.

Berkut, I'm going to speak to you from my heart. I want you to absorb what I'm saying, reflect on it for a few moments, and contemplate the possibility that it is true.

You are a useless fucking idiot.

Three weeks ago I was arguing it would be better for Schumer not to schedule the Senate trial in February. I gave several predictions on what I thought would happen if the trial was held in February, and why I thought a delayed trial would be advantageous. MM and others disagreed with me. Schumer apparently does not read m posts on languish, and the trial was held anyway. What I thought would happen has indeed happened, and so I'm making an "I told you so" post to those who disagreed with me earlier.

I'm not defending Mitch McConnell. This was about a decision point the democrats had weeks ago.

Of course you are.

You think Schumer should "Deal with the hand he is dealt" when it is dealt to him by your lovely Moscow Mitch, and in the process, make sure poor Trumpy and is buddies are let off the hook.

Democrats shold make decisions based on reality and what has happened, and what is likely to happen. Letting McConnell set the terms for all decisions is stupid.

They could have had the trial, AND got confirmations, if the GOP had cooperated. Of course they did not, but that is because people like you encourage them to act exactly as they are acting, and cheer them on for it, and turn around and blame the Dems for not cooperating with the GOP and doing their bidding, like "Hey, lets just have this trial of attempted insurrection in, I don't know...some time when there isn't anything more interesting happening...I am sure that will totally come up soon. Give it a few months, and then we can discuss if the timing is convenient for Mitch and Lindsey!"

Fucking GOP sycophant tool.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 08:56:28 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 22, 2021, 12:19:35 PM
Here we are three weeks later, with only 7 cabinet positions confirmed, and a bullshit senate trial at a historically breakneck pace without witnesses.

It turns out the Senate could not walk and chew gum at the same time. You willing to admit I was right on this?

No capability is not the same as result.

It's clear that the slow pace on appointments has nothing to do with the impeachment trial, which as you correctly point out, was carried out very quickly - because that was in the interest of all factions.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 09:12:38 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 08:51:45 AM
Of course you are.

You think Schumer should "Deal with the hand he is dealt" when it is dealt to him by your lovely Moscow Mitch, and in the process, make sure poor Trumpy and is buddies are let off the hook.

Democrats shold make decisions based on reality and what has happened, and what is likely to happen. Letting McConnell set the terms for all decisions is stupid.

They could have had the trial, AND got confirmations, if the GOP had cooperated. Of course they did not, but that is because people like you encourage them to act exactly as they are acting, and cheer them on for it, and turn around and blame the Dems for not cooperating with the GOP and doing their bidding, like "Hey, lets just have this trial of attempted insurrection in, I don't know...some time when there isn't anything more interesting happening...I am sure that will totally come up soon. Give it a few months, and then we can discuss if the timing is convenient for Mitch and Lindsey!"

Fucking GOP sycophant tool.

God damn you are an idiot. Chuck Schumer is the majority leader, not Mitch McConnell. The filibuster for nominees has been removed. McConnell voted that the trial was unconstitutional, and yet it happened against his objections. Covid relief passed in the first round despite unanimous GOP objection. McConnell seems to be some sort of all powerful boogeyman in your mind that can determine Senate results and Schumer is powerless.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 09:14:27 AM
Yes, your right, Schumer has the power to let Mitch tell him how to run the Senate, and if he doesn't go along with Mitch, why, then its his fault for not cooperating with your Dear Leader and his lackeys when shit does not get done.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: 11B4V on February 23, 2021, 09:28:28 AM
I fear  Alfred has lost it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2021, 09:38:42 AM
I can vouch for him being much more lucid in person.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on February 23, 2021, 09:38:56 AM
I think you guys need a chill out a bit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 10:00:08 AM
While the Democrats can win any vote in the Senate IF they maintain 100% discipline and IF everyone is healthy and present, they can't drag in the VP to force things every time they want to schedule a hearing or a committee meeting.  Even without the Manchin issue, as a practical matter they need some degree of cooperation from the GOP to operate, even if it is passive.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 10:42:39 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 08:56:28 AM

No capability is not the same as result.

It's clear that the slow pace on appointments has nothing to do with the impeachment trial, which as you correctly point out, was carried out very quickly - because that was in the interest of all factions.

That is indefensible. In the first 4 full weeks since the inauguration we had 7 confirmations. Why?

One week was designated for recess, leaving 3 weeks. The trial lasted 5 days, and that doesn't include floor time used for pre trial activities. Without a trial you would have an almost 50% increase in available floor time. There were only 7 confirmations before the trial in part because the priority was covid relief, which may have actually used most of the time (since they stayed until almost 6 in the morning one day).

Under current senate rules it is probably difficult to process more than 1 nominee a day on average - if you are focused on nominees. Schumer setting a schedule of a week for impeachment with a week of recess already scheduled after predetermined that we would enter this week with very few confirmed nominees. That was his play. You can argue the rules of the Senate suck, but they command a majority support of Senators.

You are totally spinning the Senate trial being fast "because it was in the interest of all factions." Republicans wanted a fast trial because it was politically damaging and humiliating for them. Democrats wanted a fast trial because -- as I was saying before the trial was scheduled -- Senate rules meant pressing work for covid relief and cabinet nominations would be delayed for the duration of the trial. Politically, they couldn't run a legitimate trial with witnesses if the cost was delaying covid relief and putting in place the Biden administration for a month. You disagreed with that back then, and yet now seem to be agreeing with the argument without admitting I was right!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 10:52:24 AM
Your dedication to the GOP is admirable, really. You should get a little Brown star for your shirt.

It is "difficult" to process nominations because the GOP has decided to make it difficult. It could be trivially easy of they wanted it to be, but they don't. Schumer knows that perfectly well.

The trial took 5 days. They could have confirmed nominees before or during it, but the GOP would not let that happen, they would use the standard delaying tactics to do so, and that was understood.

And it was understood by your boy McConnell, hence the attempt to use the nominees as hostage to get the trial delayed.

I think the right move was made to tell you and McConnell that no, the GOP doesn't get to mandate the Senate schedule when they are not in power, and don't get to try to shovel the impeachment trial onto a back burner.

You are so proud that you successfully predicted that the GOP would act in exactly the same way they have acted for the last 10 years, and so happy that your team was able to hold up some nominations as the price for having the impeachment trial.

The GOP has the ability under Senate rules to make sure everything takes a long time, and they are going to use it as a chip to try to force Schumer to act as if they are still the ones in the majority. McConnell is, if nothing else, incredibly competent at just that. That is the reality, but we don't have to pretend that it is some great thing and all the GOPTards who get all swole with pride at their leaders are some prescient wizards for predicting that douchebags actually are douchebags.

But you keep on patting yourself on the back for predicting the obvious.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 23, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
AR, did you watch any of the confirmation hearing for the AG yesterday?  If so, did you detect just a hint of the Republicans dragging it out as long as possible?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 10:57:11 AM
The US is increasingly run as a gerontocracy. Trump is 74, Biden is 78, Schumer is 70, McConnell is 79, Pelosi is 80.

Of 100 Senators, 26 are older than 70. Another 24 are 65 or older. Literally half of the Senate is at or beyond retirement age.

It isn't hard to see why: we increasingly don't expect those in charge to deliver results. People like Diane Fienstein and Chuck Grassley are 87, may be senile, and increasingly frail, but its cool to leave them in some of the most important leadership roles of the country because they vote against the right people. 74 million people voted for Trump whose main activity as president seemed to be shit tweeting at 3am.

I've reviewed the reasons for this, and I have determined it is the fault of Berkut. People like him just reflexively blame the other side for a lack of results. Senate procedure is complicated, but if in the first month of Biden's administration, Trump is acquitted in effectively a show trial, very little movement on nominations has happened, and the Senate took a week's recess, it must be McConnell's doing!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 10:58:49 AM
A show trial. That is how you characterize it. Well done. You are doing good work for the right people.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2021, 10:59:49 AM
It wasn't a show trial. In show trials, innocent people are found guilty. This one was the other way around.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on February 23, 2021, 11:03:49 AM
Quote from: Syt on February 23, 2021, 10:59:49 AM
It wasn't a show trial. In show trials, innocent people are found guilty. This one was the other way around.
In a way, wasn't it?

In show trials the verdict is pre-determined and the trial makes no impact. It's for communicating outside of the court. That feels like what happened here and it was important that it did happen. But it was never going to produce another result.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 23, 2021, 11:07:55 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 23, 2021, 11:03:49 AM
Quote from: Syt on February 23, 2021, 10:59:49 AM
It wasn't a show trial. In show trials, innocent people are found guilty. This one was the other way around.
In a way, wasn't it?

In show trials the verdict is pre-determined and the trial makes no impact. It's for communicating outside of the court. That feels like what happened here and it was important that it did happen. But it was never going to produce another result.

I just wanted to make a flippant remark and didn't think it through. :(
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 11:10:13 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 23, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
AR, did you watch any of the confirmation hearing for the AG yesterday?  If so, did you detect just a hint of the Republicans dragging it out as long as possible?

I didn't, but while the hearings have been delayed for a number of reasons they can be blamed for, I don't think they are delaying it as long as possible under the rules. Why their motives for allowing the process to be expedited a bit can be debated (I'm sure it isn't out of kindness), they aren't dragging it out as long as possible.

For example, a committee vote is going to happen next monday. They could have delayed that vote longer (I think a week after written responses are received, which are expected Friday), but agreed to an accelerated vote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 23, 2021, 11:24:33 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 10:52:24 AM
Your dedication to the GOP is admirable, really. You should get a little Brown star for your shirt.

It is "difficult" to process nominations because the GOP has decided to make it difficult. It could be trivially easy of they wanted it to be, but they don't. Schumer knows that perfectly well.

The trial took 5 days. They could have confirmed nominees before or during it, but the GOP would not let that happen, they would use the standard delaying tactics to do so, and that was understood.

And it was understood by your boy McConnell, hence the attempt to use the nominees as hostage to get the trial delayed.

I think the right move was made to tell you and McConnell that no, the GOP doesn't get to mandate the Senate schedule when they are not in power, and don't get to try to shovel the impeachment trial onto a back burner.

You are so proud that you successfully predicted that the GOP would act in exactly the same way they have acted for the last 10 years, and so happy that your team was able to hold up some nominations as the price for having the impeachment trial.

The GOP has the ability under Senate rules to make sure everything takes a long time, and they are going to use it as a chip to try to force Schumer to act as if they are still the ones in the majority. McConnell is, if nothing else, incredibly competent at just that. That is the reality, but we don't have to pretend that it is some great thing and all the GOPTards who get all swole with pride at their leaders are some prescient wizards for predicting that douchebags actually are douchebags.

But you keep on patting yourself on the back for predicting the obvious.
:unsure: Since when is AR dedicated to GOP?  Did I miss some update?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 11:29:01 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 10:58:49 AM
A show trial. That is how you characterize it. Well done. You are doing good work for the right people.

"It is hard to imagine a trial without documents and witnesses," Schumer said. "If it doesn't have documents and witnesses, it is going to seem to the American people that it is a sham trial, a show trial."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/12/26/chuck_schumer_if_senate_impeachment_trial_doesnt_have_witnesses_it_will_be_seen_as_a_sham_trial_a_show_trial.html

That is what Schumer said about the first trial.

There easily could have been witnesses--but it is very tough to do with the calendar the way it is. There was no compelling reason to hold the trial now except Valmy's argument "to rip the bandaid" and get this behind us asap. Well guess what? That didn't happen because the trial was not thorough and now there is going to a deeper congressional inquiry. That didn't need to be the case if the trial was held a few months from now.

I mean, when Trump was actually still president, the trial lasted 3 weeks and was considered superficial--the fastest in history. The house inquiry started in September and ended with a verdict in February. There wasn't a need to run this fast.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 11:35:47 AM
What witnesses should have been called and what would they have added?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 11:52:11 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 11:35:47 AM
What witnesses should have been called and what would they have added?

There is going to be a criminal trial, right? Do you think they will have witnesses there? Do you think it will be wrapped up in one week?

Is the additional congressional inquiry going to have witnesses?

Give me a break...you know the trial was cut way short because there are too many political pressures on the Senate (covid relief, confirmations) to make tolerable a long trial right now.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 12:05:29 PM
It was cut short because the GOP made it clear, again, that no matter what witnesses were called and no matter what they said, or what documents were produced, the result would be them voting to acquit.

This isn't a criminal trial, it is a Senate "debate" and vote where a big chunk of those voting stated ahead of time they don't care what evidence is presented. Comparing it to a criminal trial with an impartial jury that needs to be convinced is rather laughable - indeed, the only reason I could imagine doing so is so you could then smugly declare how it is all fake news.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 12:17:37 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 12:05:29 PM
It was cut short because the GOP made it clear, again, that no matter what witnesses were called and no matter what they said, or what documents were produced, the result would be them voting to acquit.

This isn't a criminal trial, it is a Senate "debate" and vote where a big chunk of those voting stated ahead of time they don't care what evidence is presented. Comparing it to a criminal trial with an impartial jury that needs to be convinced is rather laughable - indeed, the only reason I could imagine doing so is so you could then smugly declare how it is all fake news.

Seriously, there have been 4 senate trials of presidents in history, and only in the case of Andrew Johnson was the outcome in doubt before the trial began. Before this trial started, enough republicans voted that the trial was unconstitutional that it was impossible to get a conviction.

The trial was to determine if Trump was guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors. Under the constitution it is actually considered a trial and not a debate.

I don't get your need to have the trial--and was absolutely a trial--on a super expedited basis at a time there is a lot of pressing business for the senate, only to then hold a more extensive inquiry later. It was one of the worst options of those available.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on February 23, 2021, 12:19:15 PM
With democracy in the US failing holding the trial before the next coup happens made sense.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on February 23, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 23, 2021, 11:03:49 AMIn show trials the verdict is pre-determined and the trial makes no impact. It's for communicating outside of the court. That feels like what happened here and it was important that it did happen. But it was never going to produce another result.

I strongly disagree, and find myself agreeing a lot with AR here. (though not because I had placed bets on the outcome) If the only possible result is the verdict, then yes. Justice requires indeterminacy. But that's such a narrow view when it comes to corruption and political matters. If this was a show trial, it was a very poor show.

Corruption is one of the hardest thing to investigate and judge through the ordinary means of justice. If the appropriate judgement of corruption is political, it requires a whole lot of pedagogy to be effective. By expediting the trial, the Democrats just botched the whole thing, and deprived themselves of the resources of explaining why exactly the Trump administration was corrupt and dangerous. Yes, it was one of the things that is "self-evident" to many non-Trumpist, but there is immense value for democracy in rehashing these reasons, and indexing the principles to the mundane matters of how a government is run. So much of Trump's power stemmed from just how opaque, and divorced from principle is can be. Rushing through the whole thing will not have disturbed this impression.

It's only a waste of time if politics is only defined by outcome. Cleaning the rot at the heart of the republic will require more than outcome driven process; something easy to miss if anything else is seen as posturing. I think there is a need for pedagogy - which I think people like Katie Porter, or AOC have only begun to understand.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 23, 2021, 01:48:57 PM
Even if Mitch & Republicans bear moral responsibility for obstruction, one can still criticize Democratic leadership for being "outplayed" based on results. AR's belief that holding the trial was a tactical mistake doesn't absolve the GOP of anything.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2021, 01:54:46 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 11:29:01 AM
There was no compelling reason to hold the trial now except Valmy's argument "to rip the bandaid" and get this behind us asap. Well guess what? That didn't happen because the trial was not thorough and now there is going to a deeper congressional inquiry. That didn't need to be the case if the trial was held a few months from now.

Well there is the political advantages to have it while it is still fresh in the news.

But generally I am getting very anxious the Democrats are blowing their chance here. I would be much more comfortable with us getting our confirmations and legislative agenda done as soon as humanly possible, preferably while ignoring the Republicans entirely. Quickly get done everything we can and then double back and work on the hard things, including a big trial for the former President.

Instead we are month in and still no stimulus checks despite promising to deliver these one week 1. I am getting nervous about 2022, we seem on the way of handing power back to Trump's supporters. That needs to be priority #1, showing good results with big successes to point to. Pointing to where the Republicans foiled our plans doesn't do anything for us.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2021, 01:57:43 PM
Just to re-state we just barely won Georgia on the back of a promise of stimulus checks in the first week. We have broken our promise and thus are the biggest friend Donald Trump and his Republican allies have. If you want to hurt Donald Trump and our political enemies you do that by delivering on your promises to the people, not fucking around doing lost causes.

And let me remind you this was no implied promise, Joe Biden went down to Georgia in person and made this promise. His failure either means he is a liar or a failure. Not a great look.

But hey still a few months to go, so still time to get done what we need to get done before the summer but I am very nervous so far.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 02:00:40 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 23, 2021, 01:48:57 PM
Even if Mitch & Republicans bear moral responsibility for obstruction, one can still criticize Democratic leadership for being "outplayed" based on results. AR's belief that holding the trial was a tactical mistake doesn't absolve the GOP of anything.

Only if you assume the being "outplayed" means "Not going along with GOP demands to back burner the impeachment trial".

AR's belief that this was a mistake is based on his desire to find a reason to blame the Dems for what the GOP is doing. Had they not held the trial, and the nominations would have gone through, but the POTUS would basically have been exonerated politically for insurrection, then he would be sitting here telling us how Schumer, if he is smart, will go along with the next thing that McConnell demands.

Schumer is a fool if he ever agrees to anything McConnell demands, because there is no compromise with him. He will only take whatever you offer on your end of the "compromise", then immediately ignore whatever he promised the instant it becomes expedient to do so. The only way to beat McConnell at McConnell games is to refuse any accommodation other than what can be immediately enforced in the particular moment. His word is garbage.

And telling the American people that the President's attempt to murder members of Congress can wait a few months to be acted upon is fucking stupid. It absolutely drains the "trial" of any political weight it could have, and since the outcome was already stated by the GOP to be acquittal no matter what, getting them to have to pay whatever political cost there was to pay was worth the price.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 02:21:44 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on February 23, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
(though not because I had placed bets on the outcome)

What I find absolutely fascinating is the fierce partisanship of Berkut on this, just assuming any criticism of the democratic leadership is endorsement of McConnell, to the extent his is saying I deserve a brown star for my shirt, which I guess is a Nazi allusion?

It was very early in the Biden administration and I wanted to participate in a betting market on cabinet approvals--so I researched the rules and scenarios rather obsessively. I have bet ~$26k on the cabinet outcomes--most of the bets were relatively low risk: like Vilsack would be the sworn in Secretary of Agriculture on 3/1 at the end of the day. On most bets I risked the max amount of $850 to make $75 or so.

The risk seemed to be that if Schumer through some combination held a trial in February, took a one week recess, and had covid relief come up a couple times, there would be no time left for confirmations. My calculation at the time was the obvious priorities of the country would be 1) covid relief, 2) confirmations, 3) the trial (which was not pressing) and the trial would be pushed off. When they announced going with a one week trial in February, that didn't make sense to me, and I posted that here. I obviously bet money, but my issue was that I don't think Schumer is acting as an effective leader.

I think I'm being even handed about this - I'm getting bailed out massively by the nominations getting approved today - but I would not criticize Schumer for putting them off had covid relief come back to the Senate (as it was originally scheduled to this week) - obviously that is a higher priority than the UN Ambassador and Secretary of Agriculture.

The intensity of the partisanship to just assume that any criticism of someone on team democrat is an endorsement of team republican must be corrosive.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 02:32:30 PM
Dude, piece of advice: nobody gives a shit about your bets. Kindly shut the fuck up about it.

Thanks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on February 23, 2021, 02:36:37 PM
I care. It is quite entertaining.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 02:40:01 PM
Il est épuisant avec ses histoires. On s'en calisse!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 23, 2021, 03:04:43 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 02:32:30 PM
Dude, piece of advice: nobody gives a shit about your bets. Kindly shut the fuck up about it.

Thanks.
I imagine if no one truly cared about AR's bets, then no one here would be endlessly blabbing on about "you're just saying that because you made a bad bet".  To Berkut's credit, though, he didn't blab on about AR's bets, he just invented a differently reality altogether to justify his abusive behavior.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:35:22 PM
Tell me more about your bets Fredo.  I can't get enough of this stuff.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 03:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:35:22 PM
Tell me more about your bets Fredo.  I can't get enough of this stuff.

I don't want to make Zoupa unhappy. :(

I just had $1.7k pay out today with the two confirmations, but still have bets of $25,840.82 outstanding. I'm really sweating it out right now! :) The dust should mostly settle by Monday night.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on February 23, 2021, 03:53:41 PM
Such a degenerate.

:lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 23, 2021, 03:57:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 03:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:35:22 PM
Tell me more about your bets Fredo.  I can't get enough of this stuff.

I don't want to make Zoupa unhappy. :(

I just had $1.7k pay out today with the two confirmations, but still have bets of $25,840.82 outstanding. I'm really sweating it out right now! :) The dust should mostly settle by Monday night.
Hopefully your efforts to hurry the confirmations along in this thread will work out for you.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on February 23, 2021, 04:00:33 PM
Once you convince Berkut of something the rest of the world is easy. :berkut:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 04:11:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:35:22 PM
Tell me more about your bets Fredo.  I can't get enough of this stuff.

<_<
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 04:16:02 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 04:11:45 PM
<_<

Don't speak on my behalf. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 04:41:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 11:52:11 AM
There is going to be a criminal trial, right? Do you think they will have witnesses there? Do you think it will be wrapped up in one week?

Is the additional congressional inquiry going to have witnesses?

Give me a break...you know the trial was cut way short because there are too many political pressures on the Senate (covid relief, confirmations) to make tolerable a long trial right now.

Very unlikely there will be a criminal trial of Trump on this issue.  If there was then obviously it would like quite different due to the rules of evidence.

I assume the congressional inquiry will have a much broader scope but we will see.

This impeachment was quite different from the Ukraine one.  On the Ukraine affair, the relevant conduct occurred in secret, outside the public eye.  The real problem was that even though some witnesses came forward - enough to prove the case - the President was allowed to withhold the documents that would have shown what really happened and to order the key witnesses like Meadows and the OMB guys not to cooperate.

On this impeachment, the relevant conduct occurred out in the open - Trump made public statements in speeches and in the debates, in tweets, in court papers, and in the rally itself.  The trial itself was mostly superfluous - packaging and reminding us what we already knew happened.  The question is whether sufficient numbers of GOP senators would have the courage to do the obvious.  There wasn't and no procedural rejiggering would change that.  The other question that Oex raises is to the potential political impact of a more elaborate trial, even if it would not affect outcome.  That is a different question.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.

This is bullshit. The GOP wanted the trial to go away, because they knew they would acquit no matter what, and the least cost they could pay to get away with that, the better.

So McConnell did his thing, and AR bought it. Oh yeah, if only Schumer was clever enough to do exactly what McConnell demanded, why, that would be ever so much better for everyone! The cabinet would have been confirmed for sure!

Horseshit. This is just him going after Dems.

I could not give two shits about Schumer or the Dems for that matter. Despising McConnell and the modern GOP is not about being a partisan Dem, it is about being a partisan American who cares about America.

And I am perfectly happy to admit that I will default to the position that if McConnell wants it, history shows that anyone not a GOPtard Trump tool should probably want exactly the opposite.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on February 23, 2021, 06:02:19 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
And I am perfectly happy to admit that I will default to the position that if McConnell wants it, history shows that anyone not a GOPtard Trump tool should probably want exactly the opposite.

Umm, yeah, I think that's been pretty obvious for awhile there Berkut.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on February 23, 2021, 06:15:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 23, 2021, 03:44:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:35:22 PM
Tell me more about your bets Fredo.  I can't get enough of this stuff.

I don't want to make Zoupa unhappy. :(

I just had $1.7k pay out today with the two confirmations, but still have bets of $25,840.82 outstanding. I'm really sweating it out right now! :) The dust should mostly settle by Monday night.


You might want to see a doctor about that.  That's not normal human behavior.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 23, 2021, 06:18:33 PM
Neither is renting a property a couple miles from a vacant one that you own. Dorsey has too much money, he needs to find ways to lose it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 06:53:04 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 23, 2021, 04:41:25 PM


Very unlikely there will be a criminal trial of Trump on this issue.  If there was then obviously it would like quite different due to the rules of evidence.

Why not? Ford pardoned Nixon to avoid a criminal trial.

Quote
I assume the congressional inquiry will have a much broader scope but we will see.

This impeachment was quite different from the Ukraine one.  On the Ukraine affair, the relevant conduct occurred in secret, outside the public eye.  The real problem was that even though some witnesses came forward - enough to prove the case - the President was allowed to withhold the documents that would have shown what really happened and to order the key witnesses like Meadows and the OMB guys not to cooperate.

On this impeachment, the relevant conduct occurred out in the open - Trump made public statements in speeches and in the debates, in tweets, in court papers, and in the rally itself.  The trial itself was mostly superfluous - packaging and reminding us what we already knew happened.  The question is whether sufficient numbers of GOP senators would have the courage to do the obvious.  There wasn't and no procedural rejiggering would change that.  The other question that Oex raises is to the potential political impact of a more elaborate trial, even if it would not affect outcome.  That is a different question.

Uh...the republican senators clearly and openly stated the answer to that before the trial began--only a handful would even concede the trial was constitutional. Your assertion is the trial had to be "right now!" to solve the question of how GOP senators would vote? That was never an unanswered question either.

Witnesses could add quite a bit of context. Speech writers could provide evidence on where the language in the speeches came from, what direction Trump gave them, what edits he made, etc. Advisors could give evidence on the information that was being provided to Trump. Obviously there seems to have been unconstructive communication between republican members of congress and trump during Jan. 6.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 07:00:15 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.


The standard way to attack democrats is to complain about Schumer's management of the Senate? I deserve a brown star for this?  :hmm:

This is all deeply disturbing and hurtful for me, from someone who has known me 20 years. By this time you should know I'm much less interested in partisanship, or even money, and much more by being able to say, "I told you so!"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 07:17:23 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.


There is the corrosiveness of not being able to criticize your team's leader without getting awarded brown stars for supporting the other side. I also disagree with the characterization that the slow progress is primarily due to republicans (on the confirmations so far at least). But whether McConnell is being an asshole here seems really irrelevant.

Me: Don't drive the lane or your shot will get blocked.
Others: Nah, it won't get blocked.
*The team drives the lane and the shot gets blocked.*
Me: They were idiots for driving the lane, I said if they did that the shot would get blocked.
Berkut: The other team had Mutumbo in the lane and he blocks everything that comes his way! You can't criticize someone for that! You should be in the Hawks fan club Hall of Fame!

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 08:03:00 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 04:16:02 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 23, 2021, 04:11:45 PM
<_<

Don't speak on my behalf.

You're taking all this very seriously dude. Chill.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on February 24, 2021, 09:27:24 AM
Speaking on behalf of Yi, I'd like to say a few words:  "Pft Aika Zang!  Chev Nya-Nya-Qork"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on February 24, 2021, 10:48:39 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 08:03:00 AM
You're taking all this very seriously dude. Chill.

Yi would like you to know he's very chill.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 24, 2021, 10:54:46 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 24, 2021, 10:48:39 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 08:03:00 AM
You're taking all this very seriously dude. Chill.

Yi would like you to know he's very chill.

Yi would like you to give him a nickname few will understand.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 02:54:21 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 08:03:00 AM
You're taking all this very seriously dude. Chill.

You're not taking all this seriously enough.  Be a mensch.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 24, 2021, 02:55:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 07:17:23 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.


There is the corrosiveness of not being able to criticize your team's leader without getting awarded brown stars for supporting the other side. I also disagree with the characterization that the slow progress is primarily due to republicans (on the confirmations so far at least). But whether McConnell is being an asshole here seems really irrelevant.

Me: Don't drive the lane or your shot will get blocked.
Others: Nah, it won't get blocked.
*The team drives the lane and the shot gets blocked.*
Me: They were idiots for driving the lane, I said if they did that the shot would get blocked.
Berkut: The other team had Mutumbo in the lane and he blocks everything that comes his way! You can't criticize someone for that! You should be in the Hawks fan club Hall of Fame!



No, thats not right.

Its more like saying "Hey, if you drive the lane, you are going to get fouled because they fucking cheat!
Yeah, but do it anyway, because we need to force the refs to make the call.
Drives lane, gets fouled, ref makes call, you miss the free throws
SEE I TOLD YOU YOU SHOULD JUST STOP DRIVING THE LANE!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 24, 2021, 03:02:06 PM
Maybe there was someone open near the basket.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:09:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 02:54:21 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 08:03:00 AM
You're taking all this very seriously dude. Chill.

You're not taking all this seriously enough.  Be a mensch.

How would I take it more seriously? Real question, I'm not even sure what that means.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 24, 2021, 03:20:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 06:53:04 AM
Uh...the republican senators clearly and openly stated the answer to that before the trial began--only a handful would even concede the trial was constitutional. Your assertion is the trial had to be "right now!" to solve the question of how GOP senators would vote? That was never an unanswered question either.

I don't think I made that assertion.  The discussion we were having was whether there should have been a more elaborate trial. The fact that the outcome was predetermined seems to favor my position.

Separately I did support doing the trial right away but that had nothing to do with how the GOP senators would vote.  I thought it best to get it done right away rather than have it linger on.  Whenever the Senate scheduled the trial it would impact on business.  Approving executive appointments is important but so is passing legislation, reviewing treaties, approving judicial appointments etc.

QuoteWitnesses could add quite a bit of context. Speech writers could provide evidence on where the language in the speeches came from, what direction Trump gave them, what edits he made, etc. Advisors could give evidence on the information that was being provided to Trump.

The Senate would never see those witnesses for years if ever.  Trump and the the lawyers would have asserted executive privilege.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 03:23:08 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:09:46 PM
How would I take it more seriously? Real question, I'm not even sure what that means.

You would stop speaking for other people.  You would realize this is not a good thing to do. 

No more "nobody gives a shit about your bets."  "Everybody here doesn't care about this or that."  If people don't give a shit about Fredo's bets they can say so themselves.  You don't have that right.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Syt on February 24, 2021, 03:26:15 PM
https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1364657790900449282

QuoteRoger Marshall's argument for not raising the minimum wage is that he had a minimum wage job and it paid for his entire college tuition.

When he graduated from Kansas State University, tuition was $898/year. It is now $10,000/year. The minimum wage then was $3.35. It's now $7.25
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 03:23:08 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:09:46 PM
How would I take it more seriously? Real question, I'm not even sure what that means.

You would stop speaking for other people.  You would realize this is not a good thing to do. 

No more "nobody gives a shit about your bets."  "Everybody here doesn't care about this or that."  If people don't give a shit about Fredo's bets they can say so themselves.  You don't have that right.

I kinda take that right when it comes to Dorsey, mostly to take a dump on him since I don't really like him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 03:46:40 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
I kinda take that right when it comes to Dorsey, mostly to take a dump on him since I don't really like him.

If a person asking you nicely to stop doing something isn't enough, think about the fact that the only posters who do this are you and grumbler.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 04:24:44 PM
All remaining election law suits dismissed by the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 24, 2021, 04:46:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 03:46:40 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
I kinda take that right when it comes to Dorsey, mostly to take a dump on him since I don't really like him.

If a person asking you nicely to stop doing something isn't enough, think about the fact that the only posters who do this are you and grumbler.

Oooh!  A drive-by lie.  Hope that burn attempt was worth it.

I don't say that "no one here cares about" whatever.

I did say, in 2009, that "No one really cares about opinions that are rooted in absurd premises and lack any evidence of careful consideration," but that's clearly a figure of speech (and untrue, of course).

How about you (and Tamas, for that matter) stop using my name as some sort of stick to beat people with?  "Only you and grumbler [do that]" is almost always a lie, and just a sad anguish cliché used by lazy people with no actual concern for what I do say.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 24, 2021, 04:51:34 PM
To be fair, grumbler, and I don't mean to dump on you, but at least in the past you did have the tendency to go "we can all see that you're weaseling here" or something to that nature.  I don't recall you doing that in the last couple of years, however, so maybe you don't do that anymore.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 24, 2021, 05:01:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 24, 2021, 04:51:34 PM
To be fair, grumbler, and I don't mean to dump on you, but at least in the past you did have the tendency to go "we can all see that you're weaseling here" or something to that nature.  I don't recall you doing that in the last couple of years, however, so maybe you don't do that anymore.

I still call a weaseling a weaseling.  But that's hardly unique to me (even if others might use other words). I don't pretend to speak for others, and don't call out uninvolved people as being archetypes of some bad habit.  I may say something along the lines of "I think that it's clear to everyone..." but that's clearly a statement of what I think, not a statement of fact.  That's permissible in polite conversation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Razgovory on February 24, 2021, 05:11:38 PM
https://comb.io/QtO16K
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 24, 2021, 07:20:32 PM
Everybody generalizes sometimes.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 24, 2021, 07:53:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 24, 2021, 04:51:34 PM
To be fair, grumbler, and I don't mean to dump on you, but at least in the past you did have the tendency to go "we can all see that you're weaseling here" or something to that nature.  I don't recall you doing that in the last couple of years, however, so maybe you don't do that anymore.

Oh, and I appreciate your moderation in this.  You and I haven't always seen eye to eye. In fact, I've been more brutal with you than I am comfortable with.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on February 24, 2021, 09:15:28 PM
Quote from: grumbler on February 24, 2021, 07:53:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 24, 2021, 04:51:34 PM
To be fair, grumbler, and I don't mean to dump on you, but at least in the past you did have the tendency to go "we can all see that you're weaseling here" or something to that nature.  I don't recall you doing that in the last couple of years, however, so maybe you don't do that anymore.

Oh, and I appreciate your moderation in this.  You and I haven't always seen eye to eye. In fact, I've been more brutal with you than I am comfortable with.
:hug:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 10:11:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 03:46:40 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
I kinda take that right when it comes to Dorsey, mostly to take a dump on him since I don't really like him.

If a person asking you nicely to stop doing something isn't enough, think about the fact that the only posters who do this are you and grumbler.

I think you're too nice to the likes of Dorsey or Mono, but yeah sure, next time I take a swipe at them I'll write more accurately.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 24, 2021, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.
I do think the Dems look fool and weak, in face of the Republicans, as in, they seem to cower in fear of what they do, or, simply, take punches and don't fight back, hoping, just like Rocky, that the ennemy will tire of this and they'll end up somehow exploiting that weakness before the 12th round.
But I am not a GOPtard, at least, I wouldn't define myself as such, ever since I started following US politics, I kinda rooted for the Dems, except when they were being dickheads like Bernie&Trump ranting about how evil Canada is for doing what is allowed under NAFTA while the US keeps losing arbitration trials.  But that's another matter, entirely :P
I just think you and most people here are a little unfair toward AR on this.  Frankly, from up here, he looks like one of the sane ones, the few left in the Republican Party.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 10:27:32 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 10:11:14 PM
I think you're too nice to the likes of Dorsey or Mono, but yeah sure, next time I take a swipe at them I'll write more accurately.

Thanks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: grumbler on February 24, 2021, 11:02:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2021, 10:27:32 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on February 24, 2021, 10:11:14 PM
I think you're too nice to the likes of Dorsey or Mono, but yeah sure, next time I take a swipe at them I'll write more accurately.

Thanks.

I note the response to Zoupa about accuracy but not to me.

Feel free to ignore what I wrote, but don't think that nobody sees that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 24, 2021, 11:13:31 PM
Quote from: viper37 on February 24, 2021, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.
I do think the Dems look fool and weak, in face of the Republicans, as in, they seem to cower in fear of what they do, or, simply, take punches and don't fight back, hoping, just like Rocky, that the ennemy will tire of this and they'll end up somehow exploiting that weakness before the 12th round.
But I am not a GOPtard, at least, I wouldn't define myself as such, ever since I started following US politics, I kinda rooted for the Dems, except when they were being dickheads like Bernie&Trump ranting about how evil Canada is for doing what is allowed under NAFTA while the US keeps losing arbitration trials.  But that's another matter, entirely :P
I just think you and most people here are a little unfair toward AR on this.  Frankly, from up here, he looks like one of the sane ones, the few left in the Republican Party.

I don't think he's actually a Republican.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 04:50:22 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 24, 2021, 02:55:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 24, 2021, 07:17:23 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 23, 2021, 05:49:35 PM
I don't think AR is going on about this because of his bets, he is going on about this because this is the standard way you attack Dems. They are fools, and weak, and if only they would do what McConnell wants them to do, then everything would be better.


There is the corrosiveness of not being able to criticize your team's leader without getting awarded brown stars for supporting the other side. I also disagree with the characterization that the slow progress is primarily due to republicans (on the confirmations so far at least). But whether McConnell is being an asshole here seems really irrelevant.

Me: Don't drive the lane or your shot will get blocked.
Others: Nah, it won't get blocked.
*The team drives the lane and the shot gets blocked.*
Me: They were idiots for driving the lane, I said if they did that the shot would get blocked.
Berkut: The other team had Mutumbo in the lane and he blocks everything that comes his way! You can't criticize someone for that! You should be in the Hawks fan club Hall of Fame!



No, thats not right.

Its more like saying "Hey, if you drive the lane, you are going to get fouled because they fucking cheat!
Yeah, but do it anyway, because we need to force the refs to make the call.
Drives lane, gets fouled, ref makes call, you miss the free throws
SEE I TOLD YOU YOU SHOULD JUST STOP DRIVING THE LANE!

Man this metaphor is getting complicated!

What you seem oblivious to is that the republicans haven't been generally obstructionist on the nominees (they have on some like Mayorkas and Becerra).

The republicans have agreed to expedited timing on most of the nominees. For example Garland finished his hearings on Tuesday. The process goes to him receiving written questions, and after receiving responses the committee votes. Garland committed to returning responses on Friday, and Republicans agreed to a committee vote on Monday, though by the rules they could have insisted on a week to review them.

The reason Garland has been so delayed (he is the last of the major cabinet positions) is the hearings were delayed due to Republicans fighting tooth and nail over Judiciary Committee rules, which is probably because they intend to be maximally difficult on judicial nominees.

A guy like Vilsack is illustrative of what is going on. He had his hearing on February 2 and the committee unanimously approved him the same day. Nothing was preventing Schumer from bringing him up for a vote since February 4 but that didn't happen until February 23 - when he was approved 92-7. Rouse was approved by her committee 24-0 on February 4 and is still waiting for a vote.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 09:42:06 AM
OK, so some background on why I went off an AR so hard. Probably unfairly hard, but I think this is important.


In my view, the GOP for the last decade at least and probably longer has been infected by this cult of populism, anti-science, and anti-government pseudo libertarianism "Tea Party" bullshit. This has manifested in all kinds of shitty ways.


But specifically around how the Senate and House GOP members have chosen to govern, it means that they have embraced a form of bad faith partisanship that says that when in power, they will do almost nothing, except those things that most crassly benefits their donor base. And not much more than that. When not in power, they will take it as their mission to obstruct, sabotage, and actively destroy democratic institutions as a way to make sure that their narrative that government is universally bad and incompetent is supported, while pandering to their remaining minority base who thinks politics is now pretty much just about sticking it to the libs.


Now, the reason this should not work is that in normal circumstances, there should be a political cost to this kind of utter bullshit. Senators and Representatives have to answer to voters. And *normally* just trying to stick it to the other guy while letting the house burn down only gets you cheers from a radical fringe, and you need votes from more then just them. But today, the radical fringe is the party. There are a bunch of non-radicals, but they have bought into this poisoned narrative that the alternative are Dems intent on turning the USA into Venezuela. With a combination of legacy broken representative systems like the Senate being stupidly skewed right and the electoral college being accidently "modified" to help exactly what it was originally designed to explicitly prevent, the GOP has become a party of minority rule.


Here is the part that upsets me. McConnell and people like him know that continuing to pursue this "strategy" of embrace of minority rule while telling most American to go fuck themselves and ignoring of norms of behavior can lead, in the end, to only two possible long term outcomes:


1. The destruction of the GOP, or
2. The destruction of what remains of democratic rule in the USA.


But they have decided they don't care, because the only way they can remain in power in the meantime, regardless of either outcome, is to continue to run out the course they've painted themselves into. They don't have any way to save the GOP or American democracy and stay in power, because their political base is now so extreme, and they've pandered to it exclusively for so long, that there is no path back to sanity that leaves them in power in the process.


So what they care about is staying in power. McConnell wants to run the Senate, or barring that be the minority leader. Running America, or even saving the GOP, is a secondary concern.


His path to doing that is relying on the same things he has done for the last decade plus. He will lie, he will play the Dems, he will obstruct, he will not govern in good faith. But he gets away with this because he has convinced his base that whenever something doesn't get done, why, it's because the Dems are stupid and incompetent and fools! If there are no witnesses for Trumps first impeachment, that must be because there isn't any evidence, not because the GOP illegally denied subpoenas, and then had their GOP SC say that the redress to ignoring subpoenas was impeachment!


They key to this strategy working is that they keep their hard core base mollified with this total bullshit, and they keep a bunch of people who mostly don't pay that much attention at least kind of buying into this shallow narrative that the Dems are incompetent and lazy and probably a bunch of liars about what they claim, but cannot seem to prove. So we see 74 million people vote for more of that.


What does this have to do with AR?


He is *exactly* supporting *exactly* the narrative Mitch wants to send. He could not support McConnell any better if AR was a McConnell sock puppet. The story Mitch is selling is the story AR is repeating word for word. Don't have the trial of the President! Lets do that later, when surely there won't be anything important going on! And if you DO have the trial, why, it will just fail anyway. And golly, wouldn't it be a shame if we just could not possibly vote on those nominations in the meantime! And this is because the Dems are so dumb dumb dumb!


I am absolutely positive that if they waited three months, there would be some other "critical" business that would gee, cannot possibly get done if you want to have a trial! Which we are telling you ahead of time we won't convict on btw, so how about we just do it later maybe? I mean, Trump is out of office, so how important can it be? Don't you want a vote on those judges? And that new climate treaty? Is this really important? Oh, we aren't going to vote for that climate treaty anyway, but maybe if we pretend like maybe we will...lets unite and come together on this! <SUCKER>


And back to my earlier point - this is all in service to two possible outcomes:


1. The eventual destruction of the GOP when their minority finally implodes, or
2. The eventual destruction of what remains of democracy in America if it does not.


Obviously I prefer option #1. I think Mitch doesn't care at this point, he figures he will be gone before either happens, or that is what he is playing for - to hang onto power, as much as he can, for as long as he can, and the consequences be damned.


So yeah, I think non-fucking crazy ass Trumper/Mitch sycophants have only 1 real option, and that is to try to make #1 happen before #2. That is not a "Dem" thing, that is a not-modern GOP thing.


And I think #1 won't happen until at least some of the people willing to buy into this "story" that Mitch and the GOP has sold that when nothing gets done, why, its the Dems fault for not going along with whatever THEY want! rejects that narrative completely. Because that is the only way we will see the GOP pay the *political* cost for their actions, and that political cost is them being voted out of office in large enough numbers to destroy the modern GOP and force a new moderate party to emerge.


AR, and people like AR, are a huge part of why Mitch and the GOP are succeeding at what they are doing. They are selling the narrative Mitch wants them to sell.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 10:17:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 09:42:06 AM
OK, so some background on why I went off an AR so hard. Probably unfairly hard, but I think this is important.


Here is why you are a fucking idiot.

-There weren't just 7 approved nominees at the start of the week because of GOP obstructionism. The GOP has not been obstructing nominees, for the most part. I'd be happy to speculate as to the reasons they haven't been, but the reality is nominees just haven't gotten put to the senate floor because all the floor time has been used for other shit -- and besides recess the biggest chunk went to the impeachment trial.
-McConnell and almost the entire GOP delegation went on record as considering the trial to be unconstitutional. Delaying the trial was not their position. It was that the entire process should never take place as it was illegitimate.
-At the beginning of the Biden administration, I looked at the scenario and thought holding the trial in February was not in the interest of the Democrats, the incoming administration, or the actual trial. I bet ~$25k thinking they would follow what I thought was their best interest.  When it looked like they would hold the trial anyway, I posted that I thought it was a mistake because we were destined to end up in the scenario we are now. I was told I was wrong, and yet here we are.

Your interpretation of what has been happening in the Senate is wrong, your interpretation of my thought process is wrong, and your statement that I'm mirroring McConnell's position is wrong. You saying that I should get a brown star for my shirt is absurd.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Grey Fox on February 25, 2021, 10:29:46 AM
Why is he an idiot because the GOP delegation are obstructists liars?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 10:30:44 AM
Mitch is please with your work. Keep it up.

Its not the GOPs fault, golly no! It's those dumb Dems! Vote for us again! We went on record saying this was unconstitutional, so heck, it must be so! I mean, we would not GO ON THE RECORD otherwise!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on February 25, 2021, 10:41:58 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 10:17:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 09:42:06 AM
OK, so some background on why I went off an AR so hard. Probably unfairly hard, but I think this is important.


Here is why you are a fucking idiot.



And just when Berkut, DG and Grumbler were doing their best to de-escalate.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 10:46:10 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 10:30:44 AM
Mitch is please with your work. Keep it up.

Its not the GOPs fault, golly no! It's those dumb Dems! Vote for us again! We went on record saying this was unconstitutional, so heck, it must be so! I mean, we would not GO ON THE RECORD otherwise!

McConnell: a senate trial should never be held and violates the constitution.
Me: holding the trial in February is counterproductive and a bad idea, because time sensitive priorities will be delayed and putting them on pause will cause the trial to be rushed.

Berkut: The story Mitch is selling is the story AR is repeating word for word. AR should wear a brown star on his shirt!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 10:54:01 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 10:46:10 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 10:30:44 AM
Mitch is please with your work. Keep it up.

Its not the GOPs fault, golly no! It's those dumb Dems! Vote for us again! We went on record saying this was unconstitutional, so heck, it must be so! I mean, we would not GO ON THE RECORD otherwise!

McConnell: a senate trial should never be held and violates the constitution.
Me: holding the trial in February is counterproductive and a bad idea, because time sensitive priorities will be delayed and putting them on pause will cause the trial to be rushed.

Berkut: The story Mitch is selling is the story AR is repeating word for word. AR should wear a brown star on his shirt!

But nobody, even Mitch, believes that it is unconstitutional. Well - you might.

That is NOT the story Mitch is selling, of course. That is his excuse for acquiting Trump, which you seem to accept as being the "real" reason. Which is funny - since not even Mitch thinks that is true, and neither does even his most ardent sycophants.

The story he is selling is that the trial is a waste of time, and the Dems are dumb dumb dumb for even making him go through with it, since the outcome was pre-ordained, and there was all this super duper critical things that can only possibly be done if they do NOT have a trial.

Of look - that is exactly what you are telling us.

But we know, and you have admitted in fact, that the trial could have been held AND they could have gotten through those nominations, with adequate basic cooperation - or even just not taking off for a week.

And it's all good - it's not like the story you are so fond of actually has to make any sense, you just have to keep repeating it as if it does. Well done.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 11:00:35 AM
Berkut, he literally went on the floor of the US Senate and cast a vote that it was unconstitutional.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=117&session=1&vote=00057

I really have no idea regarding the laundry list of arguments McConnell stated at various points in time, but he went on record that the trial should not be held because it was unconstitutional. That isn't a timing or practicality argument, and if he made those as well, it would seem they were ancillary to this point.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 11:04:34 AM
Wow, so as long as McConnell voted a certain way, the that is all the evidence you need that he believes it to be true?

I don't even think YOU believe that, but I guess it reinforces your narrative, so you don't really care whether it is true or not. Funny how that works.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 11:15:27 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 10:54:01 AM

But we know, and you have admitted in fact, that the trial could have been held AND they could have gotten through those nominations, with adequate basic cooperation - or even just not taking off for a week.


I have not admitted that under current rules they could have gotten through very many more nominations with adequate basic cooperation--which I think they have been getting in any event. It would have helped not taking off a week, but the minority leader doesn't get to send the senate into recess.

It looks like they are going to take tomorrow off as well. I realize getting the Secretary of Commerce confirmed a day later is not a crisis of government, and but I was focused on this because I had $1700 riding on her getting confirmed by Monday midnight. Based on the order they are to be processed it looks like that could have been Monday if they worked Friday, but will now likely be Tuesday (or Wednesday if they are less diligent, or much later if they take up covid relief before they get to her). It is indicative of the lack of urgency.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 11:22:44 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 11:04:34 AM
Wow, so as long as McConnell voted a certain way, the that is all the evidence you need that he believes it to be true?

I don't even think YOU believe that, but I guess it reinforces your narrative, so you don't really care whether it is true or not. Funny how that works.

No I don't think that McConnell really thinks the trial is unconstitutional. I think that if the shoe was on the other foot he would try to convict a democratic president, if he believed that was to his advantage.

But by the same measure, if he ever made the arguments I've been making, I don't think he believes them either. I think he is the ultimate partisan, doing whatever it takes to get every narrow advantage for the GOP.

His ultimate argument was that the trial was illegitimate and unconstitutional. I don't think that is the case. If McConnell didn't believe that, I'm not sure why are you are saying I'm somehow I'm following his party line by arguing something he may have secondarily argued, but likely didn't believe either.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 11:41:43 AM
Because McConnell doesn't care if it is true or not, he just counts on there being people out there who will reinforce his overall narrative to justify their obstruction in general: The Dems are all dumb, and this is really their fault, and if only they were willing to cooperate and compromise, why, surely these kinds of things would not happen.

At the end of the day, your claim is that somehow getting some nominations done is so critical that the Dems should have gone along with McConnells demand to back burner the trial.

1. They aren't that critical, and certainly nowhere near as critical as holding the POTUS to account directly for an actual attack on the Capitol, and
2. The idea that if Schumer had gone along with McConnell, he could then trust McConnell to cooperate is completely stupid. Schumer should assume that nothing McConnell ever says is true, that he will always renege on his word the moment it is convenient to do so, and in general, if McConnell/GOP want something, barring some extraordinary evidence otherwise, he should assume that he should oppose it.

This is exactly like playing a multiplayer wargame with someone who has shown that they are willing to make a deal, get their side of the deal, and then immediately simply refuse to honor their own side. The moment that happens, you have to then continue playing the game assuming that they will always break their word, and deal with them appropriately.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 11:59:00 AM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 11:41:43 AM
Because McConnell doesn't care if it is true or not, he just counts on there being people out there who will reinforce his overall narrative to justify their obstruction in general: The Dems are all dumb, and this is really their fault, and if only they were willing to cooperate and compromise, why, surely these kinds of things would not happen.

At the end of the day, your claim is that somehow getting some nominations done is so critical that the Dems should have gone along with McConnells demand to back burner the trial.

His demand wasn't to back burner the trial, it was to not hold it at all, which he considered illegitimate / unconstitutional.

But I guess no one can question democratic strategy at any point in time, because that plays into McConnell's narrative somehow?

You have McConnell derangement syndrome. You see McConnell acolytes under every rock, and seem to think McConnell has some sort of magical control of the senate. Schumer is the majority leader, and could set the timetable of the trial and nomination approvals without the agreement of McConnell. Neither the trial nor nominations would be subject to a filibuster. Schumer is still constrained by Senate rules, which have the support of the majority of Senators, and limit the pace of proceedings so it is very difficult to process many things at the start of a new administration quickly.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 12:11:10 PM
Schumer is the majority leader of a Senate that is split, and would need to call on the VP every time they needed to break a tie without some basic cooperation from the "minority".

Mitch is going to exploit that of course, and he will do so in the same manner he did when he was the previous minority leader, and when he was the majority leader - in whatever manner is necessary to allow him as much control as possible.

I notice you keep just cutting out my posts that are talking about WHY this is a problem, and why we should not be just rolling over for Mitch, even if we did bet heavily on him.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 25, 2021, 01:24:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 12:11:10 PM
Schumer is the majority leader of a Senate that is split, and would need to call on the VP every time they needed to break a tie without some basic cooperation from the "minority".

Mitch is going to exploit that of course, and he will do so in the same manner he did when he was the previous minority leader, and when he was the majority leader - in whatever manner is necessary to allow him as much control as possible.

I notice you keep just cutting out my posts that are talking about WHY this is a problem, and why we should not be just rolling over for Mitch, even if we did bet heavily on him.

I didn't bet heavily on Mitch. If you think that Mitch somehow kept the democrats from approving many nominees, which I don't, I bet against Mitch. Which just highlights what a dumbass you are.

Mitch can not command 50 votes on most issues in any event--there haven't been any nominations that went through with less than 56 votes. People like Romney and Murkowski have voted for every nominee. Murkowski dropped some hints that she is open to leaving the party. It is the same as Schumer, who can't dictate the votes of all 50 democrats--and thus it looks like the Tanden nomination will fail (she seems to be the first candidate with unified republican opposition and Manchin is opposed).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: viper37 on February 26, 2021, 04:14:35 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 25, 2021, 09:42:06 AM
OK, so some background on why I went off an AR so hard. Probably unfairly hard, but I think this is important.
Oh, I agree with everything you said about the GOP.

Quote
What does this have to do with AR?

He is *exactly* supporting *exactly* the narrative Mitch wants to send. He could not support McConnell any better if AR was a McConnell sock puppet. The story Mitch is selling is the story AR is repeating word for word. Don't have the trial of the President! Lets do that later, when surely there won't be anything important going on! And if you DO have the trial, why, it will just fail anyway. And golly, wouldn't it be a shame if we just could not possibly vote on those nominations in the meantime! And this is because the Dems are so dumb dumb dumb!


I am absolutely positive that if they waited three months, there would be some other "critical" business that would gee, cannot possibly get done if you want to have a trial! Which we are telling you ahead of time we won't convict on btw, so how about we just do it later maybe? I mean, Trump is out of office, so how important can it be? Don't you want a vote on those judges? And that new climate treaty? Is this really important? Oh, we aren't going to vote for that climate treaty anyway, but maybe if we pretend like maybe we will...lets unite and come together on this! <SUCKER>


And back to my earlier point - this is all in service to two possible outcomes:


1. The eventual destruction of the GOP when their minority finally implodes, or
2. The eventual destruction of what remains of democracy in America if it does not.


Obviously I prefer option #1. I think Mitch doesn't care at this point, he figures he will be gone before either happens, or that is what he is playing for - to hang onto power, as much as he can, for as long as he can, and the consequences be damned.


So yeah, I think non-fucking crazy ass Trumper/Mitch sycophants have only 1 real option, and that is to try to make #1 happen before #2. That is not a "Dem" thing, that is a not-modern GOP thing.


And I think #1 won't happen until at least some of the people willing to buy into this "story" that Mitch and the GOP has sold that when nothing gets done, why, its the Dems fault for not going along with whatever THEY want! rejects that narrative completely. Because that is the only way we will see the GOP pay the *political* cost for their actions, and that political cost is them being voted out of office in large enough numbers to destroy the modern GOP and force a new moderate party to emerge.


AR, and people like AR, are a huge part of why Mitch and the GOP are succeeding at what they are doing. They are selling the narrative Mitch wants them to sell.
Here is where I think you are a bit unfair toward him, re: Impeachment.
The Dems could control the agenda.  They knew the GOP would not vote to impeach.  That wasn't a certainty, but a near-certainty.  Imho, the best strategy was to expose that level of corruption with a long hearing, dragging witnessess and exposing Trump's corruption and manipulation of the crazies AND pointing how all of that was made possible by the Republican enablers.  That was the goal, imho.
Now, what did we have?  An expedited trial were the Dems rushed through the process because they were in a hurry to get their nominations passed.
There was a good reason to not delay the trial, because the longer they wait, the more the GOP's spin could work: it was the work of Antifa.  And Antifa = Democratic Party = AOC = The Squad whatever boogeywoman they can use at the time. Of course McConnell wanted to drag things along.  But just agreeing that right now, before the nominations are confirmed is too soon does not mean is an enabler.  It's too early to tell.

Now, the result of the impeachment process... Tt was, at best, a draw.  The GOP is solidly rallying behind Trump and Taylor-Greene is exhonorated by her party, free to keep up with her harassment bullshit.  The Dems are solidly convinced Trump and Trumpism are a moral stain on your country and will keep doing business as usual, playing by the rules, hoping the GOP will somehow self-clean its act, all on its own.  AR did say something like that would happen, and he criticized the Dems strategy for it.  This is how I see his position.

Won't happen, of course.  And I doubt the 2022 mid-terms are going to radically change the portrait of the Congress.  The Dems did lose seats in the House and made moderate gains in the Senate.  Shouting victory and going on a triumph over flipping 2 seats in Georgia is premature.  I sincerely doubt Georgia is now a solid blue State with 2 guaranteed seats to the Dems for the next senate elections over there.  And I doubt these Senate gains will automatically translate into house gains in the mid-terms.  The Republicans are fighting back all over the country by trying to change electoral laws to suppress votes.  Lots of things are in movement in Georgia and Pennsylvania to deter absentee mail vote, for example. 

Hearing Stacey Abrams claim she has the recipe to turn a State from Red to Blue makes me cringe, because I fear a repeat of 2016.  And I don't think anyone criticizing the democratic strategy in the US is an enabler of Moscow Mitch ;)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 27, 2021, 10:59:09 AM
I did not say anyone criticizing Dem strategy is an enabler, I said parroting the GOP narrative is enabling them.

It is a very specific kind of criticism, that excuses the GOP for anything they do (by never criticizing them, or doing so only in passing as you move along to how dumby dumb dumb those Dems are) while criticizing the Dems for not doing what the GOP oh so reasonably demanded that they do.

That is the key here - that AR's critique is not in general, it is very specific - that the Dems refused the GOPs demand that they set the schedule. He is claiming not that the Dems made a mistake, but that their specific mistake was to not go along with exactly what Moscow Mitch said, and casting that as the Dems being their normal, dumb Dem selves. If only they would just listen to Mitch Fucking McConnell, why, THAT would clearly be the strategically smart move and then we would all be saying "Gee, look at that Schumer! He is a bright guy, letting McConnell tell him how and when to schedule things!"

Not buying it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 27, 2021, 01:38:45 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 27, 2021, 10:59:09 AM
I did not say anyone criticizing Dem strategy is an enabler, I said parroting the GOP narrative is enabling them.

It is a very specific kind of criticism, that excuses the GOP for anything they do (by never criticizing them, or doing so only in passing as you move along to how dumby dumb dumb those Dems are) while criticizing the Dems for not doing what the GOP oh so reasonably demanded that they do.

That is the key here - that AR's critique is not in general, it is very specific - that the Dems refused the GOPs demand that they set the schedule. He is claiming not that the Dems made a mistake, but that their specific mistake was to not go along with exactly what Moscow Mitch said, and casting that as the Dems being their normal, dumb Dem selves. If only they would just listen to Mitch Fucking McConnell, why, THAT would clearly be the strategically smart move and then we would all be saying "Gee, look at that Schumer! He is a bright guy, letting McConnell tell him how and when to schedule things!"

Not buying it.

You are a worthless piece of shit.

I can't find anything indicating I'm parroting the requests of McConnell. I've seen:

-McConnell requesting the trial be held mid February so that Trump's team had more time to prep for the trial, which in fact happened, and
-McConnell saying the entire thing shouldn't be held at all.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/us/politics/trump-impeachment-trial-mcconnell-senate.html#:~:text=Senator%20Mitch%20McConnell%E2%80%99s%20call%20to%20delay%20former%20President,to%20the%20request%20to%20delay%20the%20impeachment%20trial.

The link above is the first point, I've already linked to the actual vote he cast on the senate floor for the second.

Maybe at a certain point he commented that the trial should be delayed until after covid relief and the biden administration put into place...but at that point he would have argued for basically for a timing from mid February to not at all so any point I raised would have been in line with some McConnell argument at some point.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on February 27, 2021, 02:17:40 PM
McConnell saying it should not be held at all.

Which goes right along with trying to delay it as long as possible.

It's not like you know what went on behind the scenes. I like how you insist that we all just take poor Mitch at his word - he is SAYS something, why, that MUST be what he actually believes!

Buck keep up with it, you are doing Gods Work.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 27, 2021, 02:49:45 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 27, 2021, 02:17:40 PM
McConnell saying it should not be held at all.

Which goes right along with trying to delay it as long as possible.

It's not like you know what went on behind the scenes. I like how you insist that we all just take poor Mitch at his word - he is SAYS something, why, that MUST be what he actually believes!

Buck keep up with it, you are doing Gods Work.

I criticize an approach taken by Schumer, you allude to me as a Nazi for "parroting" McConnell's line, I point out that McConnell's lines were actually other stuff, and somehow now you are saying I am taking McConnell at his word?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 27, 2021, 03:07:06 PM
Lets be real about the situation. If there were three competing priorities at the start of the Biden administration:
-covid relief
-impeachment trial
-getting the administration officials in place

I don't think covid relief has been in any way held up by scheduling. But getting the administration officials in place is clearly at a historically slow pace.

So was the much abbreviated impeachment trial worth it?

https://nypost.com/2021/02/16/trump-remains-top-2024-choice-with-gop-voters-poll-finds/

QuoteFormer President Donald Trump's popularity with Republicans has increased in the wake of his impeachment trial, with 59 percent of GOP voters wanting Trump to play a major role in the party going forward, a new poll found.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted in the days after the Senate trial in which he was acquitted Saturday found 59 percent of GOP voters want Trump to be heavily involved in the party's future direction — up 18 percentage points from a poll conducted on Jan. 7, the day after the Capitol siege over which he was impeached and then tried.

The betting odds on Trump getting the GOP nomination in 2024 went from 20% at the start of the trial to currently 34%.

The abbreviated trial actually left Trump in a stronger position than he was prior to the trial.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 27, 2021, 03:07:52 PM
Question: which dog lets go of the bone first?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 11:11:31 AM
So AR do you think a long drawn out trial would have convinced Trump's base and caused his support to wane?
Or the opposite?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 28, 2021, 10:18:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 11:11:31 AM
So AR do you think a long drawn out trial would have convinced Trump's base and caused his support to wane?
Or the opposite?

His base? Probably not. I do think additional evidence can cause his support to wane. If the general public is impervious to facts and reason then why should we keep democracy?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 28, 2021, 10:27:00 PM
His base is not 74 million strong.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 10:34:36 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 28, 2021, 10:27:00 PM
His base is not 74 million strong.

And yet it was sufficient to cause him to win 2 presidential nominations. 

We are nearly 5 years from the time that Trump openly committed a criminal act - asking a foreign power to break into his opponent's computer systems and release the information stolen.  He has since committed multiple criminal acts culminating in an attempted coup against the constitution and a violent insurrection in the nation's capital.  He also demonstrated the most staggering incompetence the US has ever seen in a high public official - admittedly a tough standard and yet one Trump easily surmounted. 

AR's argument is that millions of people who continued to support him after all that would finally turn against him if one of his speechwriters gave unfriendly testimony to the prosecution in the Senate.  I don't find that argument credible.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on February 28, 2021, 10:56:48 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 10:34:36 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 28, 2021, 10:27:00 PM
His base is not 74 million strong.

And yet it was sufficient to cause him to win 2 presidential nominations. 

We are nearly 5 years from the time that Trump openly committed a criminal act - asking a foreign power to break into his opponent's computer systems and release the information stolen.  He has since committed multiple criminal acts culminating in an attempted coup against the constitution and a violent insurrection in the nation's capital.  He also demonstrated the most staggering incompetence the US has ever seen in a high public official - admittedly a tough standard and yet one Trump easily surmounted. 

AR's argument is that millions of people who continued to support him after all that would finally turn against him if one of his speechwriters gave unfriendly testimony to the prosecution in the Senate.  I don't find that argument credible.

My argument was that holding a trial in February would be counterproductive because it would sideline other actually pressing priorities and force a short trial due to those pressing priorities.

If your argument is that the trial could not move public opinion in whatever form it was held, and acquittal was a preordained outcome, then why was it so important to hold in February?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 11:19:13 PM
I think I've answered that a few times in this thread.

A trial had to be held because the rule of law requires such a fundamental assault of the integrity of the nation to be tried, even if it is known that some jurors will turncoat and other will chicken out.  And it is better to get it done soon and quickly.

There are always pressing priorities.  There were pressing priorities in February, there are pressing priorities in March, and there will be pressing priorities in April, May, June and every month beyond.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 01, 2021, 08:42:12 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 28, 2021, 11:19:13 PM
I think I've answered that a few times in this thread.

A trial had to be held because the rule of law requires such a fundamental assault of the integrity of the nation to be tried, even if it is known that some jurors will turncoat and other will chicken out.  And it is better to get it done soon and quickly.

And yet you expressed earlier that there wouldn't be a criminal trial.... :hmm:

QuoteThere are always pressing priorities.  There were pressing priorities in February, there are pressing priorities in March, and there will be pressing priorities in April, May, June and every month beyond.

Almost all floor time used in the US Senate is dedicated to legislation and nominations.

Yes there will be competing demands in April, May, and June. Holding a trial in those months would cause other priorities to be delayed. However, at the current moment you have demands of approving an entire incoming administration and a $1.6 trillion covid relief bill that needs to be approved by March 14 to prevent benefits from expiring. It is likely there will not be any greater demand for floor time in the US Senate than in February and March of this year until the next administration.

You are acting as though they didn't feel pressure to abridge the trial because of these pressures. You are acting as though you didn't tell me that the Senate could walk and chew gum at the same time before the trial started when I warned that we would end up in this situation, and yet here we are.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 09:03:43 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on February 23, 2021, 12:46:57 PMI strongly disagree, and find myself agreeing a lot with AR here. (though not because I had placed bets on the outcome) If the only possible result is the verdict, then yes. Justice requires indeterminacy. But that's such a narrow view when it comes to corruption and political matters. If this was a show trial, it was a very poor show.

[...]

It's only a waste of time if politics is only defined by outcome. Cleaning the rot at the heart of the republic will require more than outcome driven process; something easy to miss if anything else is seen as posturing. I think there is a need for pedagogy - which I think people like Katie Porter, or AOC have only begun to understand.
I agree with this but I don't think it works in practice. A longer trial would have been one with witnesses - unlike in the Russia/Ukraine impeachment basically all of the people the Democrats would be calling as witnesses would be hostile. There are no Vindmans or Fiona Hills - it would be the Republican operatives, staffers and politicians around Trump on January 6. Democrats would have little to no idea what they would say and I'm not convinced those witnesses would take the risk of perjury seriously. It would not have the sort of lesson that I think people would want - I think it'd be a shitshow of people like Kevin McCarthy challenging the very basis of the trial and, frankly, probably lying. It's the same challenge that pervades so much of US politics - how does it work when one side stops operating in good faith. And that would just be the Democrats' witnesses.

The Trump legal team would also have the opportunity to bring witnesses and I think that would be entirely designed to muddy the waters and throw other unfounded allegations around.

I think in this case looking at what having witnesses would mean and the outcome would lead to the same conclusion - it's not worth the risk. Instead you make opening and closing statements where you can play the minute-by-minute storming the Capitol plus Trump's speech/Trump's tweets, you get to make the most persuasive case you can.

QuoteCorruption is one of the hardest thing to investigate and judge through the ordinary means of justice. If the appropriate judgement of corruption is political, it requires a whole lot of pedagogy to be effective. By expediting the trial, the Democrats just botched the whole thing, and deprived themselves of the resources of explaining why exactly the Trump administration was corrupt and dangerous. Yes, it was one of the things that is "self-evident" to many non-Trumpist, but there is immense value for democracy in rehashing these reasons, and indexing the principles to the mundane matters of how a government is run. So much of Trump's power stemmed from just how opaque, and divorced from principle is can be. Rushing through the whole thing will not have disturbed this impression.
Perhaps - but we see today Sarko being convicted. I believe there have been corruption convictions for Kohl, Chirac, Berlusconi, the King of Spain, multipe British former cabinet ministers, an Israeli President and the current Israeli Prime Minister. There are many countries that have or believe they have similar systems to the US that have managed to investigate former politicians, heads of state or government for corruption or other crimes and has managed to punish them.

I think there are two things going on for me - one is that I don't think corruption should be fundamentally a political judgement and I think it can go through the normal justice process. The issue in the US, it seems to me, is that there is no trust or belief by Republicans - so about 30-40% of the population - that either the criminal justice or the political system is capable of investigating and judging fairly. That's a bigger issue that I'm not sure how you solve, it reflects what we've all talked about with the GOP before. The other point is that I think impeachment is a political not a criminal process and the reason for that is because it's not necessarily linked to crimes and the punishment is political: removing a validly elected President from office or barring someone from running for office. I think that is the right approach in theory - how it works now with US politics as they are I don't know.

I think the only solution is ultimately political and relies on voters - the Republicans need to lose (at state, local, congressional and national levels) and lose so badly that they change. But I'm not sure that's likely.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:29:31 AM
I frankly think to some degree "we" pick on the Dems too much. A lot of things that get labeled Dem "stupidity" are actually just caused by the Dem being a big (and growing) tent party with lots of internal divisions that can't be easily papered over when it comes to tactics.

The GOP is fracturing off people in a more concrete sense, but those are the people prone to disagreement, so the GOP will only be getting more unified in rhetoric and goals. When people like AOC and myself support the same party now, you have an extremely broad ideological scope which will make lots of situations much more difficult to manage. I know a lot of people don't believe it now, but I do think this is long term a good thing for the Dems. The less tolerant the GOP becomes of any ideological impurity, the harder and harder I think it is for them to find winning coalitions. With gerrymandering and the unequal distribution of voters in the states, the GOP is going to continue to wield far outsize influence for a good while, much longer than most people want. But the fact they are doubling down now (as you can see from CPAC) on pure white nationalism really means they have no long term future. A decade or more being an openly white nationalist party is going to make the GOP brand massively toxic to any voters who grow up in this environment. Someone who comes into politics and sees white nationalism as the brand of the Republican party is going to be far less likely to ever be open to voting Republican throughout the course of their entire lifetime.

This sort of effect is real by the way--the damage done to the Republican brand by Herbert Hoover created a huge crop of voters who aligned with the Dems, but not only that--a huge crop of voters who never considered a Republican (other than Eisenhower) for any office at any level ever again.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 11:30:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 09:03:43 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on February 23, 2021, 12:46:57 PMI strongly disagree, and find myself agreeing a lot with AR here. (though not because I had placed bets on the outcome) If the only possible result is the verdict, then yes. Justice requires indeterminacy. But that's such a narrow view when it comes to corruption and political matters. If this was a show trial, it was a very poor show.

[...]

It's only a waste of time if politics is only defined by outcome. Cleaning the rot at the heart of the republic will require more than outcome driven process; something easy to miss if anything else is seen as posturing. I think there is a need for pedagogy - which I think people like Katie Porter, or AOC have only begun to understand.
I agree with this but I don't think it works in practice. A longer trial would have been one with witnesses - unlike in the Russia/Ukraine impeachment basically all of the people the Democrats would be calling as witnesses would be hostile. There are no Vindmans or Fiona Hills - it would be the Republican operatives, staffers and politicians around Trump on January 6. Democrats would have little to no idea what they would say and I'm not convinced those witnesses would take the risk of perjury seriously. It would not have the sort of lesson that I think people would want - I think it'd be a shitshow of people like Kevin McCarthy challenging the very basis of the trial and, frankly, probably lying. It's the same challenge that pervades so much of US politics - how does it work when one side stops operating in good faith. And that would just be the Democrats' witnesses.

The Trump legal team would also have the opportunity to bring witnesses and I think that would be entirely designed to muddy the waters and throw other unfounded allegations around.

I think in this case looking at what having witnesses would mean and the outcome would lead to the same conclusion - it's not worth the risk. Instead you make opening and closing statements where you can play the minute-by-minute storming the Capitol plus Trump's speech/Trump's tweets, you get to make the most persuasive case you can.

QuoteCorruption is one of the hardest thing to investigate and judge through the ordinary means of justice. If the appropriate judgement of corruption is political, it requires a whole lot of pedagogy to be effective. By expediting the trial, the Democrats just botched the whole thing, and deprived themselves of the resources of explaining why exactly the Trump administration was corrupt and dangerous. Yes, it was one of the things that is "self-evident" to many non-Trumpist, but there is immense value for democracy in rehashing these reasons, and indexing the principles to the mundane matters of how a government is run. So much of Trump's power stemmed from just how opaque, and divorced from principle is can be. Rushing through the whole thing will not have disturbed this impression.
Perhaps - but we see today Sarko being convicted. I believe there have been corruption convictions for Kohl, Chirac, Berlusconi, the King of Spain, multipe British former cabinet ministers, an Israeli President and the current Israeli Prime Minister. There are many countries that have or believe they have similar systems to the US that have managed to investigate former politicians, heads of state or government for corruption or other crimes and has managed to punish them.

I think there are two things going on for me - one is that I don't think corruption should be fundamentally a political judgement and I think it can go through the normal justice process. The issue in the US, it seems to me, is that there is no trust or belief by Republicans - so about 30-40% of the population - that either the criminal justice or the political system is capable of investigating and judging fairly. That's a bigger issue that I'm not sure how you solve, it reflects what we've all talked about with the GOP before. The other point is that I think impeachment is a political not a criminal process and the reason for that is because it's not necessarily linked to crimes and the punishment is political: removing a validly elected President from office or barring someone from running for office. I think that is the right approach in theory - how it works now with US politics as they are I don't know.

I think the only solution is ultimately political and relies on voters - the Republicans need to lose (at state, local, congressional and national levels) and lose so badly that they change. But I'm not sure that's likely.

I think where people are going wrong is they are equating what happens in the Senate with a trial.  It is isn't a trial - show or otherwise.  It is purely a political process. There are speeches, not cross examination of witnesses - even if they are present.  If the Senate had the procedure to hold an actual trial (or something closer to a trial) then I think Oex's argument would be much stronger.



Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
I mean the Senate does have procedures for conducting a form of trial for impeachment, it just chose not to use them. Lawfare blog did a good podcast on "Late Impeachments" that covered some of this, impeachment as per Senate rules is conducted much like a trial. It's not the same form of trial we use in our ordinary criminal or civil courts, but it has counsel for both sides, an adjudicator, rules of procedure, the ability to submit evidence and call witnesses, to mount a defense, etc etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 11:40:59 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
I mean the Senate does have procedures for conducting a form of trial for impeachment, it just chose not to use them. Lawfare blog did a good podcast on "Late Impeachments" that covered some of this, impeachment as per Senate rules is conducted much like a trial. It's not the same form of trial we use in our ordinary criminal or civil courts, but it has counsel for both sides, an adjudicator, rules of procedure, the ability to submit evidence and call witnesses, to mount a defense, etc etc.

If you are referring to the process where Senators have 5 minutes to ask questions of witnesses, you and I have very different ideas of what a cross examination looks like.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:46:08 AM
The Senators are jurors, the actual counsel in a normal impeachment trial can do more cross examining. In a typical trial the jurors don't ask many questions at all.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 11:48:19 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:46:08 AM
The Senators are jurors, the actual counsel in a normal impeachment trial can do more cross examining. In a typical trial the jurors don't ask many questions at all.

You are correct, in a typical trial the jurors don't ask questions, never publicly take a position before they have heard the evidence presented at trial, and certainly don't meet with the defendant.

But of course all of that happens in a Senate hearing and so I don't find your answer very compelling.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:49:23 AM
I mean like I said it's a form of trial, I specifically said it is not the same kind of trials you'll find in civil or criminal courts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 11:50:56 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 11:49:23 AM
I mean like I said it's a form of trial, I specifically said it is not the same kind of trials you'll find in civil or criminal courts.

That avoids the question.  It is a form of trial in a very very remote sense.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 11:54:04 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 09:03:43 AM
I agree with this but I don't think it works in practice. It's the same challenge that pervades so much of US politics - how does it work when one side stops operating in good faith. And that would just be the Democrats' witnesses.

It's true that in the current operating mode of the American democracy, the process would have required a thorough deconstruction. The temptation to turn this into grandstanding, cheap one-liners, infantile presentations may have been too strong on both sides of the aisle, and the compulsion of 24h news network would have been to exhaust every possible talking point within a couple of days. But I still think that part of the solution - in this case - would have been to stretch procedures to a very long time. Or perhaps to simply hold the same type of trial, but removed from the immediate moment, if only for Democrats to hone the message and the delivery. Some things take a long time to set in. Let some police inquiries unfold. Get some of the Capitol stormers arrested. Use that time to hone message and delivery.

QuoteI think there are two things going on for me - one is that I don't think corruption should be fundamentally a political judgement and I think it can go through the normal justice process.

Just a nuance: corruption is a fundamentally political judgment because it concerns the appropriate uses of authority, which transforms what is either theft, or a personal act, like gift-giving, into something reprehensible. And it thrives on ambiguity and time (which is why people indicted for corruption have usually left office). This is why it is often quite difficult to prove, in courts, and why the idea that someone is corrupt ought to rest upon non-judiciary criteria. In other words, one should be able to judge Sarkozy as corrupt, even if courts don't find him guilty of such. Danger comes when either people think politicians are *all* corrupt (and thus, like Berlusconi, it doesn't matter much), or that corruption is only a legalistic matter - for which a ton of loopholes and reasonable doubt can easily be found.

QuoteI think the only solution is ultimately political and relies on voters - the Republicans need to lose (at state, local, congressional and national levels) and lose so badly that they change. But I'm not sure that's likely.

Indeed, it's not likely at all. This is why any hope of change requires a multi-pronged strategy by Democrats. Aggressively disempower Republicans at every level, which requires dropping a lot of stupid ideals about bipartisanship. Aggressively invest in local politics, which Democrats have abandoned for much too long. And a continuous effort of education in the media and in the institutions about principles. Reclaim the language of ideals and the Constitution. Democrats have been afraid to talk of big ideas, because they always feared to be tarred with the brush of the evil "Isms". The Republicans were the party of principles. That is clearly gone now. Republicans can't claim principles. They don't have good parry against such speech today.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:01:03 PM
Oex, I disagree with both the proposition that corruption is fundamentally a political judgment and the proposition that it is difficult to prove.

There have been a number of convictions now for leaders who have engaged in corruption.  It does not seem to be all that difficult to prove. The reason these prosecutions occur after a person leaves office is because of immunities which attach to the office which make prosecution while a person is in office very difficult. 

As for judging someone to be corrupt even if tried and not convicted, that is problematic.  On what basis would one do that?  Simple belief based on whatever incomplete information one might have at hand? 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on March 01, 2021, 12:11:23 PM
There's a difference in the United States between 'ethical corruption' and 'legal corruption.' Trump has done both. However, it's worth noting that both things for which Trump was impeached, any sort of conviction in a regular criminal court would have been very unlikely. Other than the article referring to obstruction in the Ukraine impeachment, Trump was really being accused of an ethical lapse. His dealings with Ukraine fall into vague areas of law that would be difficult to prosecute on in a normal court (even a prosecutor looking to try the case after he left the White House.) Inciting a riot is an actual crime, but it's one with a lot of precedential protections for the accused and a broad assumption to try not to infringe on speech except where absolutely necessary. With that framework getting convictions for inciting a riot is incredibly difficult at all in the United States, even moreso in a case like Trump's.

These are because of "process failures" in our politics, it's because the specific things Trump did and how they did them, don't easily constitute unambiguous violations of law, at least sufficient to overcome the burden of proof on the prosecution. Note that right now I'm restricting myself to the two things he was impeached for--and in the case of Ukraine there were two articles of impeachment--in a traditional criminal court he'd have been in more peril of being convicting on the obstruction article than anything else he was impeached for, but even that has barriers.

I do think Trump committed crimes while President that would result in fairly easy convictions, but I think a lot of the evidence of those crimes was successfully stonewalled out of making it into the public eye for the entirety of Trump's Presidency. One big process failure Trump really exposed is the absolute inability of Congress to get any information from an unwilling executive, about any matter. The norm used to be the executive was entitled to secrecy around things relating to his advisors giving him advice on running the country, things of that nature. Not refusing to let entire agencies of government respond to normal congressional inquiries.

Trump also almost certainly has a long list of business related crimes he committed prior to his Presidency, some of which I suspect will see the inside of a criminal court.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 12:43:08 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:01:03 PMThere have been a number of convictions now for leaders who have engaged in corruption.  It does not seem to be all that difficult to prove.

It is very difficult to prove. Corruption is a quid pro quo exchange, which - if you are wise - you never really tie very explicitly. It also frequently evolves very gradually from acceptable forms of sociability: people you meet, services you give, people that have mutual friends. A service is rendered that may easily be camouflaged under a lot of others. It requires considerable resources to go through books, administrative correspondance, etc. It usually involves people who have extraordinary means at their disposal. Compared with other types of crimes, it requires a ton of efforts. Quebec recently had a whole extraordinary commission tasked with analyzing corruption in the construction industry, tied to political parties. It mobilized considerable resources, and ended up with precious few results. It wasn't the first time. I had followed closely the sponsorship scandal in Canada, and it followed the same script. A lot of things revealed to be clearly unethical, and money disappearing for little service rendered. Very few condemnation. One guy plead guilty to save a lot of others.

QuoteAs for judging someone to be corrupt even if tried and not convicted, that is problematic.  On what basis would one do that?  Simple belief based on whatever incomplete information one might have at hand?

Yes. :) That's the essence of political judgment. The same way that I could judge Andrew Scheer to be less than straightforward about his intention regarding social conservatism, or that I can say that Trudeau's involvement in the appointment of judges is a form of ordinary political corruption.

To illustrate: I think it very clear that Trump is incredibly corrupt. I also think it is very likely, considering all of the above, that he is never found guilty of corruption in a court of law. Would I therefore reserve my judgement, and find Trump fit to serve? Absolutely not. If not found guilty in a court of law, I don't think he should go to jail. But I don't think he should be rewarded with office, time, or consideration.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:46:01 PM
If you are proposing making judgments on rumour and innuendo rather than a fact based analysis (which occurs in a real trial) then that is definitely where we part company.  I don't think that approach is any better than the Q nutters.  Truth then becomes a matter of whoever has the best pitch devoid of facts.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 01:59:49 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:46:01 PM
If you are proposing making judgments on rumour and innuendo rather than a fact based analysis (which occurs in a real trial) then that is definitely where we part company.  I don't think that approach is any better than the Q nutters.  Truth then becomes a matter of whoever has the best pitch devoid of facts.

This is not what I wrote. Not all facts are those established by a court of law. Nor are political judgments reducible to facts. Some facts are incontrovertible and yet, will support very different political judgement about whether or not one is fit for governing or not. That's the essence of the philosophical problem of the "reasonable nazi". And some "facts" are quite open for interpretation - those of the court being only one among many.

I can judge Trump unfit for duty based on his demonstrable behavior, even if the very same facts may not land him in jail. It doesn't mean either that such judgment is only whim and detached from principle. An impeachment procedure, even if the outcome is foreordained, plays that role. Much like the Charbonneau commission was able to expose the mechanism of corruption, even if few people were convicted. We are far from QAnon territory.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:09:23 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 01:59:49 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:46:01 PM
If you are proposing making judgments on rumour and innuendo rather than a fact based analysis (which occurs in a real trial) then that is definitely where we part company.  I don't think that approach is any better than the Q nutters.  Truth then becomes a matter of whoever has the best pitch devoid of facts.

This is not what I wrote. Not all facts are those established by a court of law. Nor are political judgments reducible to facts. Some facts are incontrovertible and yet, will support very different political judgement about whether or not one is fit for governing or not. That's the essence of the philosophical problem of the "reasonable nazi". And some "facts" are quite open for interpretation - those of the court being only one among many.

I can judge Trump unfit for duty based on his demonstrable behavior, even if the very same facts may not land him in jail. It doesn't mean either that such judgment is only whim and detached from principle. An impeachment procedure, even if the outcome is foreordained, plays that role. Much like the Charbonneau commission was able to expose the mechanism of corruption, even if few people were convicted. We are far from QAnon territory.

I am not sure I see a distinction.  You agreed that even if a court does not find someone guilty, people should still make their own judgment based on whatever information they have at hand.   How is that any different from making judgments based on rumour and innuendo.  I have no problem with political judgments being made based on facts.  But it must be based on facts.  For example, I have no problem with someone taking the view that ,after reading a decision of the court, they come to the conclusion that the court got it wrong.  But all too often people come to a conclusion based on what they read on social media.  Hardly a fact based analysis.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on March 01, 2021, 02:19:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:09:23 PM
I am not sure I see a distinction.  You agreed that even if a court does not find someone guilty, people should still make their own judgment based on whatever information they have at hand.   How is that any different from making judgments based on rumour and innuendo.  I have no problem with political judgments being made based on facts.  But it must be based on facts.  For example, I have no problem with someone taking the view that ,after reading a decision of the court, they come to the conclusion that the court got it wrong.  But all too often people come to a conclusion based on what they read on social media.  Hardly a fact based analysis.

Do you think Trump is unfit for office? Even if he hasn't been convicted in a court of law?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:28:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 01, 2021, 02:19:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:09:23 PM
I am not sure I see a distinction.  You agreed that even if a court does not find someone guilty, people should still make their own judgment based on whatever information they have at hand.   How is that any different from making judgments based on rumour and innuendo.  I have no problem with political judgments being made based on facts.  But it must be based on facts.  For example, I have no problem with someone taking the view that ,after reading a decision of the court, they come to the conclusion that the court got it wrong.  But all too often people come to a conclusion based on what they read on social media.  Hardly a fact based analysis.

Do you think Trump is unfit for office? Even if he hasn't been convicted in a court of law?


I think that is a different and purely political question.  I think he is unfit for reasons other than whether he can be proven to be corrupt. 

The question I posed to Oex was a hypothetical of what occurs after a court has made its finding and only on the question of whether or not he was corrupt.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:28:39 PM
I should add that five years ago I probably would have agreed with you Oex.  But, particularly in the US, the news has been viewed as something which is created to serve a political agenda.  If there is no reporter of record which people trust as a source for factual information, then you are just left with Trump world where facts are irrelevant.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 02:52:43 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:28:02 PM
The question I posed to Oex was a hypothetical of what occurs after a court has made its finding and only on the question of whether or not he was corrupt.

I don't know how to answer that. Has the person been left off the hook on technicality? Has it been decided at the end of a super transparent process? Do I think that the law is too lenient? Is it okay for a Prime Minister to spend so much time with that private citizen with a clear political interest? Or even: do I think that the end justified the means - which, I should note, is the conclusion that many thought re: wartime profiteering.

I think you are making this too strict an either/or proposition. Either it's decided in a court, and therefore facts, or it's all hearsay, therefore fake news. By its very nature, corruption cannot fit neatly in these boxes.

(As an aside, I recommend Zephyr Teachout's Corruption in America for a neat intro to the matters of corruption in (US) democracy.)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 03:15:57 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 02:52:43 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 02:28:02 PM
The question I posed to Oex was a hypothetical of what occurs after a court has made its finding and only on the question of whether or not he was corrupt.

I don't know how to answer that. Has the person been left off the hook on technicality? Has it been decided at the end of a super transparent process? Do I think that the law is too lenient? Is it okay for a Prime Minister to spend so much time with that private citizen with a clear political interest? Or even: do I think that the end justified the means - which, I should note, is the conclusion that many thought re: wartime profiteering.

I think you are making this too strict an either/or proposition. Either it's decided in a court, and therefore facts, or it's all hearsay, therefore fake news. By its very nature, corruption cannot fit neatly in these boxes.

(As an aside, I recommend Zephyr Teachout's Corruption in America for a neat intro to the matters of corruption in (US) democracy.)

Fair questions.  lets assume for our hypothetical that no evidence was excluded because it was unlawfully obtained and so there was a full record of all the evidence.  The process is transparent in the sense that the court set out all the evidence of importance in its decision that was available (as is the usual practice). 

I don't think I am being overly restrictive at all.  Rather I am pointing out that a court process is much preferable to anything that might be achieved in a Senate impeachment trial.  After such a process the facts come out and can be known by the public.  The alternative is the word of rumour and innuendo (and actually worse, false facts) which I think leads further to the destruction of Liberal Democracy.

Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 04:07:58 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 11:54:04 AM
It's true that in the current operating mode of the American democracy, the process would have required a thorough deconstruction. The temptation to turn this into grandstanding, cheap one-liners, infantile presentations may have been too strong on both sides of the aisle, and the compulsion of 24h news network would have been to exhaust every possible talking point within a couple of days. But I still think that part of the solution - in this case - would have been to stretch procedures to a very long time. Or perhaps to simply hold the same type of trial, but removed from the immediate moment, if only for Democrats to hone the message and the delivery. Some things take a long time to set in. Let some police inquiries unfold. Get some of the Capitol stormers arrested. Use that time to hone message and delivery.
Perhaps. My counter would be the trial gets power from its immediacy - I think that is part of the reason why McConnell didn't deal with it when the House voted up charges on January 7. I think it's possible that you can construct a better argument and you can develop that, but I think it's equally likely that through 24 news, multiple news cycles and nomination fights and politics as usual between January 6 and a trial that the shock and the impact of the Capitol being stormed dissipates. I think there is a risk that it just becomes memory holed.

I'm not convinced of what was right, but I think there's good arguments for "rushing" it and for not wanting witnesses. Plus I think there's a Sorkin tendency on the American left that one act of political theatre or speech will be enough to transform things. I don't believe that and I think some - not you or AR - of the people who'd like a longer trial imagine that there could be a successful impeachment and it would serve that purpose.

QuoteJust a nuance: corruption is a fundamentally political judgment because it concerns the appropriate uses of authority, which transforms what is either theft, or a personal act, like gift-giving, into something reprehensible. And it thrives on ambiguity and time (which is why people indicted for corruption have usually left office). This is why it is often quite difficult to prove, in courts, and why the idea that someone is corrupt ought to rest upon non-judiciary criteria. In other words, one should be able to judge Sarkozy as corrupt, even if courts don't find him guilty of such. Danger comes when either people think politicians are *all* corrupt (and thus, like Berlusconi, it doesn't matter much), or that corruption is only a legalistic matter - for which a ton of loopholes and reasonable doubt can easily be found.
The other side to Berlusconi - which I think Trump plays on - is that his argument is all politicians are corrupt, and the legal system is corrupt and (or perhaps because) it is political.

But I think the US is quite far gone in both of the dangers you've highlighted (I think the UK is pretty far gone down the "all politicians are corrupt" route).

QuoteIndeed, it's not likely at all. This is why any hope of change requires a multi-pronged strategy by Democrats. Aggressively disempower Republicans at every level, which requires dropping a lot of stupid ideals about bipartisanship. Aggressively invest in local politics, which Democrats have abandoned for much too long. And a continuous effort of education in the media and in the institutions about principles. Reclaim the language of ideals and the Constitution. Democrats have been afraid to talk of big ideas, because they always feared to be tarred with the brush of the evil "Isms". The Republicans were the party of principles. That is clearly gone now. Republicans can't claim principles. They don't have good parry against such speech today.
There's a lot I agree with here - though as a long-standing Labour party member I come out in hives at people suggesting "political education" as a solution to almost anything :lol:

But I actualy think the most helpful thing would be if Democrats were able to get things done. The GOP has in many ways run against the idea of government and even of politics as a way of doing anything for a long time. And I know technocracy and populism are normally seen as enemies but there's huge overlap: they're both very sceptical of politics, politicians and ideology which is the way, in a democratic, we negotiate alternative visions of our future. Trump was in a way a technocratic and populist candidate - "I alone can fix it". But he wasn't a million miles away from Romney's campaign focusing on his time as a consultant/businessman/Olympic-Games-Saviour or, for that matter, McCain's which emphasised that he's a different kind of politician (because of his military history) who'd put country first. I think America is uniquely susceptible to this type of technocratic pitch - the generals have been successful with this pitch, so have some businessmen like Hoover - but every election there's a yearning for the technocrat who, allied with the people, can resolve political issues - Bloomberg most recently, Clark not too long ago etc. The European equivalent is probably the Central Banker summoned to save his country.

One way to counter that I think would actually be to achieve things - just pass legislation (and sell it in the media).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on March 01, 2021, 04:15:30 PM
Glad the House finally passed Covid Relief. Better late than never. Now pass a version in Senate ASAP. We needed this a month ago. Get something out there Dems.

Any chance you could get a Marijuana decriminalization bill out there as well? And I only mean a FEDERAL decriminalization. Texas can still lock up all the potheads it wants, as is its right.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on March 01, 2021, 04:27:07 PM
I would LOVE that.  I usually connect thru Denver when I fly to California, and I'd love to toke up in the airport.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/65/OzzyOsbourne_FlyingHighAgain_Single_1981.jpg)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on March 01, 2021, 04:32:01 PM
Well you probably still cannot smoke anything in an Airport Cal :P

Also this business with the minimum wage is why I wanted these bills passed on day one. Suddenly the Senate cannot pass it because of some rule. Better to pass the bill first and ask for forgiveness later. Now moderate Dems can easily refuse it on principle.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on March 01, 2021, 04:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 01, 2021, 04:32:01 PM
Well you probably still cannot smoke anything in an Airport Cal :P
Something tells me that if the federal ban on marijuana is abolished, DEN will suddenly have some smoking rooms. :sleep:

If not, I'll settle for gummies I guess. :)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:53:38 PM
Did Denver finally close down its smoking bar?  They had one when I flew through a while back. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:36:08 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 01, 2021, 04:35:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 01, 2021, 04:32:01 PM
Well you probably still cannot smoke anything in an Airport Cal :P
Something tells me that if the federal ban on marijuana is abolished, DEN will suddenly have some smoking rooms. :sleep:

If not, I'll settle for gummies I guess. :)

You strike me more of a brownie guy anyway.  :P
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 05:53:43 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 04:07:58 PMPlus I think there's a Sorkin tendency on the American left that one act of political theatre or speech will be enough to transform things. I

That's very true. I seem to recall Jill Lepore making a similar point - perhaps on the Talking Politics/LRB podcast which I think you listen to.

Quoteas a long-standing Labour party member I come out in hives at people suggesting "political education" as a solution to almost anything :lol:

I'd call it "reeducation" but I suspect it may be objectionable.

In all seriousness, it's a fair reaction - but I think mostly because the left (and it is the same here) imagines their/our perspective to be self-evidently superior, and thus simply in need to be taught to the ignorant awaiting their epiphany. I'd perhaps characterize what I favor as "indexing", i.e., linking policy to principle.

QuoteOne way to counter that I think would actually be to achieve things - just pass legislation (and sell it in the media).

Sure. But you'd have to ruthelessly exploit the division between the rump Republicans and the Trump Republicans.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 01, 2021, 07:10:00 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on March 01, 2021, 05:53:43 PM
That's very true. I seem to recall Jill Lepore making a similar point - perhaps on the Talking Politics/LRB podcast which I think you listen to.
Quite possibly - normally I consciously steal ideas from there but this one may be sub-conscious :lol:

QuoteIn all seriousness, it's a fair reaction - but I think mostly because the left (and it is the same here) imagines their/our perspective to be self-evidently superior, and thus simply in need to be taught to the ignorant awaiting their epiphany. I'd perhaps characterize what I favor as "indexing", i.e., linking policy to principle.
I agree with that I think that's a better way of putting it. But yeah I've spoken to enough people on the left who basically think that if we do enough screenings of Ken Loach we'll end up winning elections again.

QuoteSure. But you'd have to ruthelessly exploit the division between the rump Republicans and the Trump Republicans.
Yes. And that's just good politics in my view and it's the basic pre-condition for anything else the Democrats do to work. Given that, I am profoundly pessimistic.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 07:23:46 PM
"Stop what you're doing, or I'll be even more outraged than I already am!"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on March 01, 2021, 08:29:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:53:38 PM
Did Denver finally close down its smoking bar?  They had one when I flew through a while back.
Dunno.... if there's one there, I don't know where.  All I know is that there's a killer tamale restaurant and a good coffee place called Moose coffee or some shit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 08:33:15 PM
Looks like they still had the Smokin' Bear Lounge in 2018, but killed it since then.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: PDH on March 01, 2021, 08:48:28 PM
Everyone knows smoking weed doesn't hurt your lungs.  At least everyone here in Santa Cruz knows that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Tamas on March 03, 2021, 11:23:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:53:38 PM
Did Denver finally close down its smoking bar?  They had one when I flew through a while back.

Warsaw has wonderfully small glass cages situated in the middle of the walking corridors where maybe half a dozen people fit at a time, to be then visible to everyone as the addicts who just had to. Sufficiently humiliating for a disgusting habit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on March 03, 2021, 11:29:37 AM
That's like, not cool man.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 03, 2021, 12:53:56 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 03, 2021, 11:23:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:53:38 PM
Did Denver finally close down its smoking bar?  They had one when I flew through a while back.

Warsaw has wonderfully small glass cages situated in the middle of the walking corridors where maybe half a dozen people fit at a time, to be then visible to everyone as the addicts who just had to. Sufficiently humiliating for a disgusting habit.
I used to fly to Bosnia fairly often to see a friend which meant changing in Vienna airport. The bit that connects to London is a really sleek, ultra-modern recently constructed airport that (like the best transport infrastructure) looks like the setting for a near future dystopia. In that section there are or were smoking rooms/booths which basically have jet powered extractor fan air conditioning.

But for the flights to the Balkans you need to move to the older terminal which is just very 70s. There the smoking booth was in a coffee shop area and, instead of having, an extractor fan just had holes in the glass walls :lol:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2021, 06:16:21 PM
Liz Warren is pushing her wealth tax again.

She also wants to ban stock buybacks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Caliga on March 04, 2021, 08:41:08 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2021, 06:16:21 PM
She also wants to ban stock buybacks.
:wacko:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:02:30 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2021, 06:16:21 PM
Liz Warren is pushing her wealth tax again.

She also wants to ban stock buybacks.
Both sound like very good ideas.

Taxing wealth is something we really need to work out how to do well.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:07:55 AM
Why do you want to ban stock buybacks?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:09:41 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:07:55 AM
Why do you want to ban stock buybacks?
What's their benefit to the economy?

I'd also be open to not banning them but making them very unattractive through tax policy.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:40:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:09:41 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:07:55 AM
Why do you want to ban stock buybacks?
What's their benefit to the economy?

I'd also be open to not banning them but making them very unattractive through tax policy.

So you are a leader of a corporation with excess cash that you don't have a useful way to reinvest.

-You can keep the cash sitting idle in the business (unattractive, and not a good use of resources)
-You can make dumb investments anyway, or even better give the money to consultants you will tell you to use the rest on stupid M&A activity

You correctly resist the above two strategies as being stupid. You decide to return the cash to shareholders. You have a couple options:

-dividends
-stock buybacks

Absent taxes, $100 spent on dividends will give your shareholders $100. $100 spent on buybacks will result in stock appreciation of $100. Your shareholders should be more or less indifferent (again ignoring taxes). There are advantages in sometimes using a stock buyback versus a dividend: a one time / extraordinary dividend has administrative costs, and can increase the volatility of the stock by creating a "lottery event" of a windfall dividend payment - traders will want to own the stock on that date. There is a good argument to align taxation of capital gains and dividends.

Companies that pay dividends usually keep them consistent: this year we pay $1 a share, next year we pay $1.05 a share, etc. If they have an extraordinary year/build up excess cash, they use that for buybacks so that the dividend stays consistent.

Of course there are reasons as CEO you may prefer buybacks: your stock options become more valuable with a buyback, but less valuable with a dividend.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on March 04, 2021, 09:49:24 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:40:15 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:09:41 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:07:55 AM
Why do you want to ban stock buybacks?
What's their benefit to the economy?

I'd also be open to not banning them but making them very unattractive through tax policy.

So you are a leader of a corporation with excess cash that you don't have a useful way to reinvest.

-You can keep the cash sitting idle in the business (unattractive, and not a good use of resources)
-You can make dumb investments anyway, or even better give the money to consultants you will tell you to use the rest on stupid M&A activity

You correctly resist the above two strategies as being stupid. You decide to return the cash to shareholders. You have a couple options:

-dividends
-stock buybacks

Absent taxes, $100 spent on dividends will give your shareholders $100. $100 spent on buybacks will result in stock appreciation of $100. Your shareholders should be more or less indifferent (again ignoring taxes). There are advantages in sometimes using a stock buyback versus a dividend: a one time / extraordinary dividend has administrative costs, and can increase the volatility of the stock by creating a "lottery event" of a windfall dividend payment - traders will want to own the stock on that date. There is a good argument to align taxation of capital gains and dividends.

Companies that pay dividends usually keep them consistent: this year we pay $1 a share, next year we pay $1.05 a share, etc. If they have an extraordinary year/build up excess cash, they use that for buybacks so that the dividend stays consistent.

Of course there are reasons as CEO you may prefer buybacks: your stock options become more valuable with a buyback, but less valuable with a dividend.

What about investing it in the people who actually made all that money? You know, the employees?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Threviel on March 04, 2021, 09:54:13 AM
A company does not exist to make the employees more qualified, a company exists to make money for its owners. It would be extraordinarily irresponsible if Volvo sent all its employees on a knitting course for its owners money.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 09:57:53 AM
And employees who have invested in the company get money as shareholders.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:58:34 AM
I think the IMF has estimated that about a third of US stock buy-backs are funded by bonds, so it's not always just cash-rich companies making this decision. Given that a significant proportion is being funded by debt I'm not sure that it's companies lacking a way to usefully re-invest as much as a preference for buybacks which have hugely increased in the last 20 years. In addition from studies done by groups like the IMF it is a large drain on corporate treasury.

Also shareholders' reaction would depend on the type of shareholder - shareholders that are holding as long-term investment (often included as part of employee schemes) benefit more from dividends than a buyback. Shareholders that are looking to or able to sell (pension funds, institutional investors, senior leadership/management) benefit from buybacks more than dividends.

But all of those benefit (some) shareholders of the company which is fine for the company to care about, from a regulatory/government perspective though I think it should be looking at what is the benefit to the economy. It's not clear there is one - so banning might be a bit strong - but I'd certainly look at tax incentives to make buybacks very unattractive compared to dividends or re-investment.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 04, 2021, 10:02:45 AM
Quote from: Maladict on March 04, 2021, 09:49:24 AM
What about investing it in the people who actually made all that money? You know, the employees?
How much you should invest in employees shouldn't really be a function of how much excess cash you have on hand.  It's either a worthwhile investment or it isn't.  Whatever is a worthwhile investment in employees wouldn't be counted as excess cash anyway, excess cash is the money that you can't invest at the required return.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Maladict on March 04, 2021, 10:09:10 AM
Quote from: Threviel on March 04, 2021, 09:54:13 AM
A company does not exist to make the employees more qualified, a company exists to make money for its owners. It would be extraordinarily irresponsible if Volvo sent all its employees on a knitting course for its owners money.

If the company had a particularly good year they would be wise to share the rewards with the employees. So they don't have to deal with those employees taking their skills elsewhere, if nothing else. But we might well be talking about different things here.

Quote from: DGuller on March 04, 2021, 10:02:45 AM
How much you should invest in employees shouldn't really be a function of how much excess cash you have on hand.  It's either a worthwhile investment or it isn't.  Whatever is a worthwhile investment in employees wouldn't be counted as excess cash anyway, excess cash is the money that you can't invest at the required return.

Fair enough, if that's the definition.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Threviel on March 04, 2021, 10:18:14 AM
Quote from: Maladict on March 04, 2021, 10:09:10 AM
If the company had a particularly good year they would be wise to share the rewards with the employees. So they don't have to deal with those employees taking their skills elsewhere, if nothing else. But we might well be talking about different things here.

Bonus?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 10:31:11 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 09:40:15 AM
So you are a leader of a corporation with excess cash that you don't have a useful way to reinvest.

Unless the company is a dying cash cow, how could it be that there are no useful investment options for a profitable company?

Quote$100 spent on buybacks will result in stock appreciation of $100.

What is the mechanism that ensures that result?  If the company spends $100 on a buyback, it acquires stock worth $100 but loses cash worth $100.  It's a wash - EPS may tick up but it is offset by the loss of cash or increased leverage.  The selling shareholder(s) gets the $100 but what do the remaining shareholders get?  The transaction makes sense if and only if the company stock is undervalued by the market, and if there are no other better investment opportunities in the world.

The reason why stock prices tend to go up on a buyback is that buybacks are often interpreted as a signal from management (insiders) of their confidence in the company.  But sometimes it is perceived as a gambit and there is little or no effect.

QuoteOf course there are reasons as CEO you may prefer buybacks: your stock options become more valuable with a buyback, but less valuable with a dividend.

Now you've got your finger on the issue.  And that is why a left populist like Warren sees a target.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 10:48:03 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 10:31:11 AM

Unless the company is a dying cash cow, how could it be that there are no useful investment options for a profitable company?

There aren't any that exceed the working average cost of capital. Seems like a common occurrence...

Quote$100 spent on buybacks will result in stock appreciation of $100.

What is the mechanism that ensures that result?  If the company spends $100 on a buyback, it acquires stock worth $100 but loses cash worth $100.  It's a wash - EPS may tick up but it is offset by the loss of cash or increased leverage.  The selling shareholder(s) gets the $100 but what do the remaining shareholders get?  The transaction makes sense if and only if the company stock is undervalued by the market, and if there are no other better investment opportunities in the world.

The reason why stock prices tend to go up on a buyback is that buybacks are often interpreted as a signal from management (insiders) of their confidence in the company.  But sometimes it is perceived as a gambit and there is little or no effect.

[/quote]

Theoretically the benefit of either a dividend or a stock buyback is getting cash that is unable to invested effectively by management out of the entity and to shareholders who can reinvest appropriately.

As a shareholder, I invest in a corporation making paperboard with expected equity returns of 10%. It has cash that is unable to be invested to generate sufficient returns to provide that return. It can hold the cash in money market accounts -- which is inefficient because they aren't a cash management company and that isn't what I want to be invested in (I invested in a paperboard company) --  maybe it could also invest in computer software, but I think we can all agree a computer software company might have better expertise to do that.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 10:51:34 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 04, 2021, 09:58:34 AM
I think the IMF has estimated that about a third of US stock buy-backs are funded by bonds, so it's not always just cash-rich companies making this decision. Given that a significant proportion is being funded by debt I'm not sure that it's companies lacking a way to usefully re-invest as much as a preference for buybacks which have hugely increased in the last 20 years. In addition from studies done by groups like the IMF it is a large drain on corporate treasury.

Also shareholders' reaction would depend on the type of shareholder - shareholders that are holding as long-term investment (often included as part of employee schemes) benefit more from dividends than a buyback. Shareholders that are looking to or able to sell (pension funds, institutional investors, senior leadership/management) benefit from buybacks more than dividends.

But all of those benefit (some) shareholders of the company which is fine for the company to care about, from a regulatory/government perspective though I think it should be looking at what is the benefit to the economy. It's not clear there is one - so banning might be a bit strong - but I'd certainly look at tax incentives to make buybacks very unattractive compared to dividends or re-investment.

Debt is super cheap and readily available. I don't think it takes an Ivy League MBA to see that companies are going to want to shift their debt / equity ratio in this environment toward debt.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 10:59:02 AM
While share bybacks might theoretically benefit a shareholder, if management does it like Buffett does - only use it as an option when he makes an assessment that the market value has undervalued the the share price.  A problematic proposition for those who believe the market is always right, but I digress.  In those limited circumstances shareholders are not harmed.  But of course the reality is that it is mainly used as a tool by the executives controlling the public corp to maximize their pay packages which have been designed to incentivize short term thinking, amply demonstrated by AF's example of it actually being a virtue to use cash for this purpose.  As Buffett has famously observed, corporate America shows an embarrassing record of doing exactly the opposite of what he does in their approach to bybacks.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 11:03:53 AM
If the owners want short term thinking and even put bonus systems in place to achieve it, then why deny them this pleasure?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:06:47 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 10:48:03 AM
Theoretically the benefit of either a dividend or a stock buyback is getting cash that is unable to invested effectively by management out of the entity and to shareholders who can reinvest appropriately.

Correct, but in the case of stock buybacks only the selling shareholders get the benefit of the cash.  The loyal shareholders who remain get nothing.

QuoteAs a shareholder, I invest in a corporation making paperboard with expected equity returns of 10%.

I'm not familiar with the manufacturing process but is there no possible way to make the process more efficient?  No way to improve distribution or product quality?  Has paperboard manufacturing remained exactly the same for a century?

It's possible that the answers to some or all of those questions are yes but is that uniformly true for all companies that buyback shares?

In recent years, the companies with the largest buyback programs in terms of dollars were Apple and Microsoft.  Part of the reason is that they are such big companies that if they do a buyback it will look big.   But are these companies that really have absolutely no other investment possibilities?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:19:11 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:06:47 AM

Correct, but in the case of stock buybacks only the selling shareholders get the benefit of the cash.  The loyal shareholders who remain get nothing.


That isn't true. Imagine there are two groups of shareowners: call them A and B. Both expect 10% returns on their investment (the risk adjusted market rate for an entity such as this). The ownership is divided evenly between the two groups.

The company's value (absent excess cash) is $100. The company has excess cash of $100 - the returns of which are negligible.

The company's equity is worth $200. Each shareholder group thus has stock with a market value of $100.

If the Company keeps operating as it is, without a dividend or buyback, it will produce returns of 5% -- below market and neither investor will be happy.

If the Company buys back the stock of shareholder group B for $100, they then get the market value for their investment which they can reinvest to get a market rate of return.

Shareholder group A is left with a company with a value of $100 - and that will be the value of its equity (unchanged). But the company without excess cash should be able to produce the 10% returns that are expected by shareholders and in line with market rates.

Both groups of shareholders are made better off by the buyback.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:22:44 AM
There was a recent story about how TSMC of Taiwan is spending $24 billion on a new chip fabrication plant in Taiwan.  That is no happening in the US.  There are fabrications plants in the US - TSMC built or is building two of them and the other major player is US registered company that is actually owned by Abu Dhabi.  I'm not saying that a US company *must* be involved in building such plants in the US but they do have strategic value in an era of heightened conflict with China and there isn't any good reason why US companies shouldn't be involved in this kind of investment.  The money though substantial is no real obstacle - Apple alone spent more than three times that amount in share buybacks in 2019.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:24:35 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:06:47 AM

I'm not familiar with the manufacturing process but is there no possible way to make the process more efficient?  No way to improve distribution or product quality?  Has paperboard manufacturing remained exactly the same for a century?

It's possible that the answers to some or all of those questions are yes but is that uniformly true for all companies that buyback shares?

In recent years, the companies with the largest buyback programs in terms of dollars were Apple and Microsoft.  Part of the reason is that they are such big companies that if they do a buyback it will look big.   But are these companies that really have absolutely no other investment possibilities?

Absolutely there are ways to improve paperboard process and generate better returns for shareholders!!!

But there are diminishing returns to the investments that can be made, and at a certain point they will fall below the cost of capital. At that point it is counterproductive to continue investing, which results in excess cash being generated.

In my career, I've never seen a major investment initiative without accompanying projections of the effect on future cash flows and whether the benefits exceed the estimated cost of capital. I've probably seen hundreds of them. I'm sure that Apple and Microsoft are doing these analyses as well.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:28:22 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:19:11 AM
Shareholder group A is left with a company with a value of $100 - and that will be the value of its equity (unchanged). But the company without excess cash should be able to produce the 10% returns that are expected by shareholders and in line with market rates.

You've just described the theoretical benefits to ROI of greater vs lesser leverage and not any specific benefit to share buybacks as a mechanism.  You could get the same result from a leveraged recap or an old fashioned MBO/LBO.

If Modigliani-Miller holds, changing the capital structure should not change value. In your example, EPS should go up as it typically does in a share buyback but there is greater risk because if the company experiences an adverse event - e.g. an unplanned global pandemic - it has no reserves and could be forced to liquidate assets.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:40:46 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:28:22 AM

You've just described the theoretical benefits to ROI of greater vs lesser leverage and not any specific benefit to share buybacks as a mechanism.  You could get the same result from a leveraged recap or an old fashioned MBO/LBO.

I didn't explain why a share buyback is a better mechanism for some corporations than a leveraged recap or an old fashioned MBO/LBO because I think that is obvious.

Companies sitting on cash that can't be invested in an efficient way need a way to return that to shareholders. I don't think we want a legal structure where companies are like, "well we've accumulated a ton of excess cash that we can't efficiently reinvest, time to find someone to do a leveraged buyout of our company!"

Quote
If Modigliani-Miller holds, changing the capital structure should not change value. In your example, EPS should go up as it typically does in a share buyback but there is greater risk because if the company experiences an adverse event - e.g. an unplanned global pandemic - it has no reserves and could be forced to liquidate assets.

Well no shit. Usually the capital structure of a company balances higher EPS from greater leverage versus higher risks due to greater leverage. But I don't think the way to ensure those decisions are appropriately made is to stop buy backs. If the government is concerned that corporate boards are not able to determine appropriate capital structures, perhaps a better reform is for the government to take control of the boards? :hmm:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:41:34 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:24:35 AM
and whether the benefits exceed the estimated cost of capital.

Which raises the question of how cost of capital is measured.  The debt component is pretty straightforward - and in recent years has been quite cheap.  But the equity component comes down to what percentage returns the company decides it should (or "needs" to) deliver to shareholders. If on a national basis the economy is run on the assumption that the private sector should do nothing unless the ROI exceeds 15%, you end up with an economy where equity holders earn very fat returns but where a lot of worthwhile investment projects that could return 12% (and employ people and purchase goods and services from other businesses) don't get done.  And that justifiably feeds into the belief of the Elizabeth Warrens of the world that there national economic implications to this kind of thinking.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:44:42 AM
AR I think you just set forth a good arguments why dividends should not be tax disadvantaged as compared to other forms of corporate cash distributions.  Which is my personal position.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:53:44 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:41:34 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 11:24:35 AM
and whether the benefits exceed the estimated cost of capital.

Which raises the question of how cost of capital is measured.  The debt component is pretty straightforward - and in recent years has been quite cheap.  But the equity component comes down to what percentage returns the company decides it should (or "needs" to) deliver to shareholders. If on a national basis the economy is run on the assumption that the private sector should do nothing unless the ROI exceeds 15%, you end up with an economy where equity holders earn very fat returns but where a lot of worthwhile investment projects that could return 12% (and employ people and purchase goods and services from other businesses) don't get done.  And that justifiably feeds into the belief of the Elizabeth Warrens of the world that there national economic implications to this kind of thinking.

I'm the real world, I've seen wacc rates under 5% in some countries (we use different waccs based on country). Our auditors generally push back that they are too low. The bias is to go low for a long list of reasons.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 12:16:29 PM
Quick google search indicates that hurdle rates in the US private sector have held pretty consistently in the 12-14 percent range.  I would not be in the least surprised to learn  that similar rates are lower elsewhere. Hence the TSMC example.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 12:39:46 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 12:16:29 PM
Quick google search indicates that hurdle rates in the US private sector have held pretty consistently in the 12-14 percent range.  I would not be in the least surprised to learn  that similar rates are lower elsewhere. Hence the TSMC example.

I'd have to look up our us wacc but I would bet it is under 6%. For a large multi national like apple or Microsoft, I'd be surprised if it is double digits. The debt side of the equation is going to be trivial and for equity they aren't exactly start ups.

Private companies are obviously a different ball game. But this really gets back to the question of how to lower the cost of capital for smaller and midsize businesses, and I don't think restricting buybacks is the way to get there.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 12:59:57 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 11:03:53 AM
If the owners want short term thinking and even put bonus systems in place to achieve it, then why deny them this pleasure?

If only the world of publicly traded companies worked that way.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 02:12:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 12:39:46 PM
I'd have to look up our us wacc but I would bet it is under 6%. For a large multi national like apple or Microsoft, I'd be surprised if it is double digits. The debt side of the equation is going to be trivial and for equity they aren't exactly start ups.

Double digits according to this 2011 survey: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6717216.pdf

Same according to this in 2017: https://www.cfo.com/budgeting/2017/09/getting-hurdle-rates/
Reports wacc around 10% but investment hurdles a bit higher at 12-13.5% (median/mean)
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Jacob on March 04, 2021, 02:25:26 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 12:59:57 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 11:03:53 AM
If the owners want short term thinking and even put bonus systems in place to achieve it, then why deny them this pleasure?

If only the world of publicly traded companies worked that way.

Every decision made in the board rooms are shaped by the current regulatory and tax environment. Changing the regulations and tax legislation will shape the decisions to be different, but there's nothing about the current state of affairs that's particularly objective or neutral or anything.

So the answer to the Brain's question is "because it's in society's interest to deny them this pleasure." Just like it - apparently - has been in society's interest previously to encourage them to indulge in that pleasure (that, or because society has messed up the way they've implemented various regulatory schemes).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2021, 02:26:14 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:06:47 AM
Correct, but in the case of stock buybacks only the selling shareholders get the benefit of the cash.  The loyal shareholders who remain get nothing.

They have the option to sell at the new, higher price.  :huh:
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 02:41:49 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 02:12:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 12:39:46 PM
I'd have to look up our us wacc but I would bet it is under 6%. For a large multi national like apple or Microsoft, I'd be surprised if it is double digits. The debt side of the equation is going to be trivial and for equity they aren't exactly start ups.

Double digits according to this 2011 survey: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6717216.pdf

Same according to this in 2017: https://www.cfo.com/budgeting/2017/09/getting-hurdle-rates/
Reports wacc around 10% but investment hurdles a bit higher at 12-13.5% (median/mean)

The 2017 figure doesn't indicate large multinationals...it could include private companies as well. Also we've significantly revised down our WACC estimate in recent years...I wouldn't be surprised if others have as well.

Looking up Apple, their effective interest rate on debt appears to be below 3%: they had $2.8 billion of interest cost on $106 billion of debt. The beta of apple is 1.25, so if you use an estimated market return of 8% for an S&P 500 company, they are probably around 10% on equity. I really doubt they are over 10% for WACC as the debt will drag the weighted average down.

For Microsoft, their beta is 0.81 so I'd expect their WACC to be lower (I didn't look up their effective interest rate but assume it is roughly in line with Apple).
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:30:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2021, 02:26:14 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:06:47 AM
Correct, but in the case of stock buybacks only the selling shareholders get the benefit of the cash.  The loyal shareholders who remain get nothing.

They have the option to sell at the new, higher price.  :huh:

That assumes that the price goes up on a buyback, covered above.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:32:58 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 02:41:49 PM
Looking up Apple, their effective interest rate on debt appears to be below 3%: they had $2.8 billion of interest cost on $106 billion of debt. The beta of apple is 1.25, so if you use an estimated market return of 8% for an S&P 500 company, they are probably around 10% on equity. I really doubt they are over 10% for WACC as the debt will drag the weighted average down.

For Microsoft, their beta is 0.81 so I'd expect their WACC to be lower (I didn't look up their effective interest rate but assume it is roughly in line with Apple).

The fact is we don't know what hurdle rate Apple or Microsoft are using in evaluating investment projects.  What we do know is that they elected to spend well over $100 billion in a year to buy their own shares.  I have a hard time believing that those two companies lack the ability to find investment projects that could return 5-8%.  And if THEY can't, the future of the American economy is more bleak than I thought.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on March 04, 2021, 03:41:40 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:32:58 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 02:41:49 PM
Looking up Apple, their effective interest rate on debt appears to be below 3%: they had $2.8 billion of interest cost on $106 billion of debt. The beta of apple is 1.25, so if you use an estimated market return of 8% for an S&P 500 company, they are probably around 10% on equity. I really doubt they are over 10% for WACC as the debt will drag the weighted average down.

For Microsoft, their beta is 0.81 so I'd expect their WACC to be lower (I didn't look up their effective interest rate but assume it is roughly in line with Apple).

The fact is we don't know what hurdle rate Apple or Microsoft are using in evaluating investment projects.  What we do know is that they elected to spend well over $100 billion in a year to buy their own shares.  I have a hard time believing that those two companies lack the ability to find investment projects that could return 5-8%.  And if THEY can't, the future of the American economy is more bleak than I thought.

I think that's actually a problem for Apple.  They have more money than they know what to do with.  They like having a fairly narrow focus on a few specific products or categories, and they like having enormous profit margins from those areas.  I'm sure they could find plenty of investment projects that would return 5-8% - but that would actually dilute their overall profitability.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:47:29 PM
I agree BB and that's a problem. Because the talent and resources that Apple has built up as an organization could bring significant economic benefits if deployed more aggressively and bring more gross profits to Apple, even if it might depress their percentage ROI.  That's why even though I find Elon Musk pretty deplorable as a human being, I admire the business drive - that's a guy who knows how to put money to work. 
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 04:04:44 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:32:58 PM
The fact is we don't know what hurdle rate Apple or Microsoft are using in evaluating investment projects.  What we do know is that they elected to spend well over $100 billion in a year to buy their own shares.  I have a hard time believing that those two companies lack the ability to find investment projects that could return 5-8%.  And if THEY can't, the future of the American economy is more bleak than I thought.

We don't, though I suspect the hurdle rate for Apple is higher than 5-8%.  However, their financials are publicly available:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019320000096/aapl-20200926.htm

Last year they had about $7.3 billion in capital expenditures, $1.5 billion in acquisitions, and $18.8 billion in R&D expenses.

They had $72.3 billion in stock repurchases (in line with the previous several years), and are sitting on almost $200 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Apple is obviously having enormous success, but I'm not sure they could deploy an extra ~$70 billion every year and do so effectively. If you exclude the cash and marketable securities it is sitting on, the assets of the company are only ~$180 billion. You are talking about radically increasing the size of the company in a very short time, which not only seems likely to lead to ineffectiveness in the new ventures but also distract from the highly profitable current ones.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 04:13:16 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:47:29 PM
I agree BB and that's a problem. Because the talent and resources that Apple has built up as an organization could bring significant economic benefits if deployed more aggressively and bring more gross profits to Apple, even if it might depress their percentage ROI.  That's why even though I find Elon Musk pretty deplorable as a human being, I admire the business drive - that's a guy who knows how to put money to work.

I'm sure that there are spreadsheets in Apple headquarters showing that the decision making path being followed by Apple is maximizing total shareholder returns.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2021, 04:16:34 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:30:15 PM
That assumes that the price goes up on a buyback, covered above.

A pretty safe assumption in my experience.  Are you aware of any stock buybacks that have not raised the share price?

Your statement that the increase in EPS is a wash with the cash pile is pretty cavalier.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't book value the lowest valuation metric?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on March 04, 2021, 05:14:39 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 04:04:44 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 03:32:58 PM
The fact is we don't know what hurdle rate Apple or Microsoft are using in evaluating investment projects.  What we do know is that they elected to spend well over $100 billion in a year to buy their own shares.  I have a hard time believing that those two companies lack the ability to find investment projects that could return 5-8%.  And if THEY can't, the future of the American economy is more bleak than I thought.

We don't, though I suspect the hurdle rate for Apple is higher than 5-8%.  However, their financials are publicly available:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019320000096/aapl-20200926.htm

Last year they had about $7.3 billion in capital expenditures, $1.5 billion in acquisitions, and $18.8 billion in R&D expenses.

They had $72.3 billion in stock repurchases (in line with the previous several years), and are sitting on almost $200 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Apple is obviously having enormous success, but I'm not sure they could deploy an extra ~$70 billion every year and do so effectively. If you exclude the cash and marketable securities it is sitting on, the assets of the company are only ~$180 billion. You are talking about radically increasing the size of the company in a very short time, which not only seems likely to lead to ineffectiveness in the new ventures but also distract from the highly profitable current ones.

Those are kind of crazy amounts of money.

News reports Apple wants to enter the car business, but is having trouble finding someone to manufacture their car for them.

They could basically take that stock buyback money for one year and go out and buy GM (total market value $74 billion, though obviously you'd pay more on a takeover).  Ford would be even cheaper, but I think the Ford Family still has control over the company.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 05:25:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 04, 2021, 05:14:39 PM

Those are kind of crazy amounts of money.

News reports Apple wants to enter the car business, but is having trouble finding someone to manufacture their car for them.

They could basically take that stock buyback money for one year and go out and buy GM (total market value $74 billion, though obviously you'd pay more on a takeover).  Ford would be even cheaper, but I think the Ford Family still has control over the company.

Exactly.

But who would be better at running GM, Apple management or GM management? Cynicism aside--the expertise of Apple is software and GM automotive--presumably the answer is GM.

Rather than Apple buying GM, wouldn't it be better to give the shareowners of Apple the $74 billion to invest in GM, or whatever company they want? Or for their kids college, a new house, etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Barrister on March 04, 2021, 05:34:23 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 05:25:43 PM
But who would be better at running GM, Apple management or GM management? Cynicism aside--the expertise of Apple is software and GM automotive--presumably the answer is GM.

I know Apple has basically no experience in manufacturing... but this is GM management we're talking about.  I'm not so sure about that answer.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 06:22:23 PM
GE?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 04, 2021, 06:24:32 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 11:22:44 AM
There was a recent story about how TSMC of Taiwan is spending $24 billion on a new chip fabrication plant in Taiwan.  That is no happening in the US.  There are fabrications plants in the US - TSMC built or is building two of them and the other major player is US registered company that is actually owned by Abu Dhabi.  I'm not saying that a US company *must* be involved in building such plants in the US but they do have strategic value in an era of heightened conflict with China and there isn't any good reason why US companies shouldn't be involved in this kind of investment.  The money though substantial is no real obstacle - Apple alone spent more than three times that amount in share buybacks in 2019.
I agree that strategically it's very important for there to be a big chip fabrication capacity in the US, just like it should've been important for Canada to have a vaccine production capacity.  I don't see how stock buybacks have anything to do with this, however.  Companies typically don't make investment for the sake of strategic interests of some country out of the goodness of their heart; typically the country has to offer subsidies to companies if it wants to have more manufacturing capacity than what they get organically from the private sector.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 06:38:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 04, 2021, 02:25:26 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 12:59:57 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 11:03:53 AM
If the owners want short term thinking and even put bonus systems in place to achieve it, then why deny them this pleasure?

If only the world of publicly traded companies worked that way.

Every decision made in the board rooms are shaped by the current regulatory and tax environment. Changing the regulations and tax legislation will shape the decisions to be different, but there's nothing about the current state of affairs that's particularly objective or neutral or anything.

So the answer to the Brain's question is "because it's in society's interest to deny them this pleasure." Just like it - apparently - has been in society's interest previously to encourage them to indulge in that pleasure (that, or because society has messed up the way they've implemented various regulatory schemes).

There are two different issues here.  One is the one you have identified which is that the regulation is in the best interests of society in general.  I don't disagree with that at all.

However, I was addressing the second issue of whether it is even in the narrow interests of the shareholders.  I don't think that it is as a general rule, and so even if one discounts the benefit to society, and fixates entirely on what is best for shareholders, Warren's proposal still makes good sense.

Brain somewhat naively posits a situation in which shareholders somehow run the show.  There are a lot of efforts being made by shareholders' rights lobbyists and activists (if we can use that term in this context) who are pushing for greater shareholder rights, but we are a very long way away from the "owners" getting the corporate decision making they want.   
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 04, 2021, 06:39:25 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 04, 2021, 06:22:23 PM
GE?

They bring good things to light.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 06:41:56 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 04, 2021, 05:25:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 04, 2021, 05:14:39 PM

Those are kind of crazy amounts of money.

News reports Apple wants to enter the car business, but is having trouble finding someone to manufacture their car for them.

They could basically take that stock buyback money for one year and go out and buy GM (total market value $74 billion, though obviously you'd pay more on a takeover).  Ford would be even cheaper, but I think the Ford Family still has control over the company.

Exactly.

But who would be better at running GM, Apple management or GM management? Cynicism aside--the expertise of Apple is software and GM automotive--presumably the answer is GM.

Rather than Apple buying GM, wouldn't it be better to give the shareowners of Apple the $74 billion to invest in GM, or whatever company they want? Or for their kids college, a new house, etc.

Yeah, who would ever think a tech guy could run a car company and become the richest man in the world.  Crazy talk!
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 04, 2021, 09:23:19 PM
And Apple has in fact been looking at autonomous driving and made some tentative investments.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: alfred russel on March 05, 2021, 06:39:01 AM
If you guys think that Apple's competitive advantage is superior management skill and they are better placed to run companies in unrelated industries, you don't have to convince me. Apple has the money to make it happen: you just need to convince their board and shareholders, who are presumably unconvinced at this stage.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 05, 2021, 11:21:24 AM
The three principal places where people use electronic devices and interactive services are the home, the office and the car.  If I were on the Apple board I would want to know what we are doing on category 3 and why we are behind.

The premise stated earlier - "who would be better at running GM, Apple management or GM management? Cynicism aside--the expertise of Apple is software and GM automotive--presumably the answer is GM" is mistaken because it distinguishes between "software" and "automotive".  "Automotive" - to the extent that it connotes the substantial expertise and knowhow relating to the production of mechanically complex internal combustion engines is rapidly becoming obsolete.  The modern electric car is basically software on wheels.  The key value add components are battery technology, software, and interior design.  GM doesn't really have historical expertise in any of those areas except the latter, and even there GM outsources a lot of that work. 

Elon Musk correctly saw that the kind of skills and expertise found in Silicon Valley would be critical to the next generation of automobiles and that the traditional car companies would have to struggle to adapt themselves.  I would question why Apple didn't see that and why the roads are filling up with "Teslas" instead of "iCars"
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 05, 2021, 11:30:24 AM
Another way to look at it is imagine it is 2005.  Apple has become the dominant player in the music industry with the hugely successful iPod and the iTunes store.  They also have a profitable niche line of premium computing products.

At this point someone goes to the board and suggests that Apple should enter into a completely new market.  One that is presently characterized by razor thin margins and brutal competition from powerful well resourced companies like Nokia and Motorola: mobile phone handsets.

If Apple had followed AR's reasoning, that suggestion would have laughed out of the board room.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
This line of discussion strikes me as a silly rabbit hole.  Taking the chain of logic from the beginning to end, it seems like we're saying that Elizabeth Warren is right to want to forbid stock buybacks because Apple needs help understanding where they can make profitable investments.  We think Apple management is smart enough to be able to do a better job in an industry completely foreign to its core competency, but dumb enough to not realize it.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Berkut on March 05, 2021, 11:40:22 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
This line of discussion strikes me as a silly rabbit hole.  Taking the chain of logic from the beginning to end, it seems like we're saying that Elizabeth Warren is right to want to forbid stock buybacks because Apple needs help understanding where they can make profitable investments.

I think it is more that rejection of the Warren position that stock buybacks should be restricted based on the presumption that companies are all super smart and know best what is best for everyone is pretty easily refuted with some examples that in fact companies often do not make optimal decisions, and there is no particular reason to believe that buying back stock is somehow magically a thing where simply because a company does it, we should a priori assume that was the best possible use of that money for all stakeholders involved.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 11:44:32 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 05, 2021, 11:21:24 AM
The three principal places where people use electronic devices and interactive services are the home, the office and the car.  If I were on the Apple board I would want to know what we are doing on category 3 and why we are behind.

The premise stated earlier - "who would be better at running GM, Apple management or GM management? Cynicism aside--the expertise of Apple is software and GM automotive--presumably the answer is GM" is mistaken because it distinguishes between "software" and "automotive".  "Automotive" - to the extent that it connotes the substantial expertise and knowhow relating to the production of mechanically complex internal combustion engines is rapidly becoming obsolete.  The modern electric car is basically software on wheels.  The key value add components are battery technology, software, and interior design.  GM doesn't really have historical expertise in any of those areas except the latter, and even there GM outsources a lot of that work. 

Elon Musk correctly saw that the kind of skills and expertise found in Silicon Valley would be critical to the next generation of automobiles and that the traditional car companies would have to struggle to adapt themselves.  I would question why Apple didn't see that and why the roads are filling up with "Teslas" instead of "iCars"
For what it's worth - and Zanza will know a lot more - the whole connected car market and use of software in vehicles, but also use of data from vehicles is from my understanding very big and very important for the car manufacturers (and insurers) now.

From a quick look at Wiki the US manufacturers seem a little behind the South Korean, Japanese and German ones in getting into this market.

QuoteAnother way to look at it is imagine it is 2005.  Apple has become the dominant player in the music industry with the hugely successful iPod and the iTunes store.  They also have a profitable niche line of premium computing products.
Yeah - this also goes for other areas like payments where they're not dominant but you would not have expected them at a certain point. And it's a big fear of the banks that a company like Apple or Amazon moves into the profitable areas and the banks get turned into low-margin utilities businesses like water or electricity companies.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 11:46:47 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
This line of discussion strikes me as a silly rabbit hole.  Taking the chain of logic from the beginning to end, it seems like we're saying that Elizabeth Warren is right to want to forbid stock buybacks because Apple needs help understanding where they can make profitable investments.  We think Apple management is smart enough to be able to do a better job in an industry completely foreign to its core competency, but dumb enough to not realize it.
So my point isn't that it's about the companies but about the economy. There may be lots of good reasons for individual companies to make this decision - looking at it from a macro/regulatory perspective do those decisions help or harm the economy in general and then we should try to create incentives for decisions that do and restrict decisions that don't or at least make them unattractive.

This is why my question to AR wasn't what are the benefits to a company for doing buybacks, but what are the benefits to the economy for buybacks because I think that's the frame that government should look at things.

Edit: Just as a tiny example - AR could be right that the companies using bonds to fund buybacks are actually just making a smart decision given the cost of debt right now. That may be true on an individual level but does it create credit risk looked at from a wider perspective - are there companies issuing speculative to fund this, is there concentration in specific markets, how much are companies already leveraged etc.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:52:53 AM
Quote from: Berkut on March 05, 2021, 11:40:22 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
This line of discussion strikes me as a silly rabbit hole.  Taking the chain of logic from the beginning to end, it seems like we're saying that Elizabeth Warren is right to want to forbid stock buybacks because Apple needs help understanding where they can make profitable investments.

I think it is more that rejection of the Warren position that stock buybacks should be restricted based on the presumption that companies are all super smart and know best what is best for everyone is pretty easily refuted with some examples that in fact companies often do not make optimal decisions, and there is no particular reason to believe that buying back stock is somehow magically a thing where simply because a company does it, we should a priori assume that was the best possible use of that money for all stakeholders involved.
I don't know if anyone is saying that companies are super smart about their stock buybacks, but you don't need to say that in any case to defend their right to buy back stock.  When you say that companies shouldn't be able to buy back stock, you're basically saying that some entity other than those companies in general know the best how the corporate money should be invested. 

All of us who worked in corporations know that the decisions made are often suboptimal, it's just that there is no evidence that Elizabeth Warren or Minsky making investment decisions for corporations is an approach that would reduce the number of such suboptimal decisions.  When you have systems with people making decisions, every system is the worst, but some are more worst than others.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:58:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 11:46:47 AM
This is why my question to AR wasn't what are the benefits to a company for doing buybacks, but what are the benefits to the economy for buybacks because I think that's the frame that government should look at things.
The benefit to the economy is that companies aren't forced to make investments that are suboptimal because they have no other means of getting rid of the excess cash.  Every suboptimal investment decision is ultimately a waste on the economy level, sooner or later that percolates down to lower productivity, and productivity is ultimately what determines the standard of living.  The capital that dilettantes use to dabble in areas they know little about is the capital that can't be used by more competent actors, or by Elon Musks of this world.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 12:36:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:52:53 AM
Quote from: Berkut on March 05, 2021, 11:40:22 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
This line of discussion strikes me as a silly rabbit hole.  Taking the chain of logic from the beginning to end, it seems like we're saying that Elizabeth Warren is right to want to forbid stock buybacks because Apple needs help understanding where they can make profitable investments.

I think it is more that rejection of the Warren position that stock buybacks should be restricted based on the presumption that companies are all super smart and know best what is best for everyone is pretty easily refuted with some examples that in fact companies often do not make optimal decisions, and there is no particular reason to believe that buying back stock is somehow magically a thing where simply because a company does it, we should a priori assume that was the best possible use of that money for all stakeholders involved.
I don't know if anyone is saying that companies are super smart about their stock buybacks, but you don't need to say that in any case to defend their right to buy back stock.  When you say that companies shouldn't be able to buy back stock, you're basically saying that some entity other than those companies in general know the best how the corporate money should be invested. 

All of us who worked in corporations know that the decisions made are often suboptimal, it's just that there is no evidence that Elizabeth Warren or Minsky making investment decisions for corporations is an approach that would reduce the number of such suboptimal decisions.  When you have systems with people making decisions, every system is the worst, but some are more worst than others.

No, there is nothing about this policy about what a company ought to invest in.  This is about restricting one of those options -  the ability of the executive of a company to act against the interests of shareholders and general societal interests.  That is the point of regulation.   The company can make what ever other investments it wants. 



Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 12:42:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:58:27 AM
The benefit to the economy is that companies aren't forced to make investments that are suboptimal because they have no other means of getting rid of the excess cash.  Every suboptimal investment decision is ultimately a waste on the economy level, sooner or later that percolates down to lower productivity, and productivity is ultimately what determines the standard of living.  The capital that dilettantes use to dabble in areas they know little about is the capital that can't be used by more competent actors, or by Elon Musks of this world.
But surely that applies to any way of returning capital to shareholders? So in what ways is this better for the market (including all shareholders) than other methods of doing that such as dividends?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 12:52:32 PM
My understanding is that stock buybacks were illegal until the 1980s and have been controversial ever since. I usually hear that some company fired tons of people or got some big bailout and then used the money it saved to buy back stock.

So I guess my question is why was it originally illegal and why was the decision made it should be legal? What benefit does society actually get from it?
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 12:56:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 12:52:32 PM
My understanding is that stock buybacks were illegal until the 1980s and have been controversial ever since. I usually hear that some company fired tons of people or got some big bailout and then used the money it saved to buy back stock.
In the UK they're allowed but there's a lot of process and transparency around them. Also in the sort of guidance by investment trade bodies - so associations of asset managers, pension fund managers etc - they are generally viewed negatively and dividends are preferred.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 01:03:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 12:42:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:58:27 AM
The benefit to the economy is that companies aren't forced to make investments that are suboptimal because they have no other means of getting rid of the excess cash.  Every suboptimal investment decision is ultimately a waste on the economy level, sooner or later that percolates down to lower productivity, and productivity is ultimately what determines the standard of living.  The capital that dilettantes use to dabble in areas they know little about is the capital that can't be used by more competent actors, or by Elon Musks of this world.
But surely that applies to any way of returning capital to shareholders? So in what ways is this better for the market (including all shareholders) than other methods of doing that such as dividends?
It's desirable for dividends to be stable and predictable.  You don't want to ramp them way up one year and ramp them way down the next year.  However, your excess cash may not come and go on such a precise schedule.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 01:05:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 12:52:32 PM
My understanding is that stock buybacks were illegal until the 1980s and have been controversial ever since. I usually hear that some company fired tons of people or got some big bailout and then used the money it saved to buy back stock.

So I guess my question is why was it originally illegal and why was the decision made it should be legal? What benefit does society actually get from it?

The law used to do a better job protecting shareholders.  Then de-regulation hit, riding high on the market knows best - the best government involvement is no government involvement mantra.  Some of that regulation was built back after Enron, but has since largely been gutted again.

The greatest ill is the fantasy that there is a perfect market in which all decisions ought to be made.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 01:20:42 PM
Yes I am aware of all that. I was just curious about the legalization of stock buy backs and why they were illegal in the first place specifically.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 01:24:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 01:20:42 PM
Yes I am aware of all that. I was just curious about the legalization of stock buy backs and why they were illegal in the first place specifically.
I imagine that a lot of financial regulations that existed at one time were well-intentioned but ill-advised.  Just because the regulatory regime was more robust 50 years ago, and arguably better served the interests of society overall, doesn't mean that every regulation from that time was benefitting society.  The development of taxpayer-insured casino economy in the financial industry definitely hasn't been a good thing for society, but I fail to see how stock buybacks are in any way the culprit.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 01:29:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 01:24:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 05, 2021, 01:20:42 PM
Yes I am aware of all that. I was just curious about the legalization of stock buy backs and why they were illegal in the first place specifically.
I imagine that a lot of financial regulations that existed at one time were well-intentioned but ill-advised.  Just because the regulatory regime was more robust 50 years ago, and arguably better served the interests of society overall, doesn't mean that every regulation from that time was benefitting society.  The development of taxpayer-insured casino economy in the financial industry definitely hasn't been a good thing for society, but I fail to see how stock buybacks are in any way the culprit.

Yeah I wasn't saying we should outlaw buy backs I was just curious what the rationale was for outlawing them and why it is a good thing they are currently legal, or at least not a bad thing.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 05, 2021, 01:58:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 01:03:52 PM
It's desirable for dividends to be stable and predictable.  You don't want to ramp them way up one year and ramp them way down the next year.  However, your excess cash may not come and go on such a precise schedule.

the concept of a special (extraordinary) dividend has been around for a long time.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 05, 2021, 02:13:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 11:52:53 AM
All of us who worked in corporations know that the decisions made are often suboptimal, it's just that there is no evidence that Elizabeth Warren or Minsky making investment decisions for corporations is an approach that would reduce the number of such suboptimal decisions.  When you have systems with people making decisions, every system is the worst, but some are more worst than others.

That's a strawman argument, no one is taking that position.
Every economic system consists of a set of rules, norms and practices: the question is at any given time is whether those rules, norms and practices are working they way they should to give economic actors the proper incentives.

The US has struggled to maintain full employment since recovering from the 08 financial crisis.  It has succeeded in keeping unemployment rates down but the employment rate never returned to pre crisis levels - and even that was achieved by running continuously large government deficits.  This all points to a chronic post-crisis weakness in private investment and raises the policy question of whether economic policy should be oriented towards encouraging more productive investment and less financial card shuffling.  The alternative is a future where the government has to assume a increasing role as investor of last resort while the private sector retreats into expertly managed and profit generating stagnation.
Title: Re: What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?
Post by: Sheilbh on March 05, 2021, 02:20:42 PM