What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[grumbler]

The exit polls give very strong evidence that voters flipped.

The exit polls give very VERY strong evidence that there was no major flip:


98% of those who voted Trump in 2020 voted Youngkin in 2021
95% of those who voted Biden in 2020 voted McAuliffe in 2021

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor

That's your source, btw.  I have no idea how you could have missed that direct comparison.

The problem was that not enough of those who voted Biden in 2020 voted at all in 2021.

[DGuller]

Democrats really need to figure out how to get their voters out to vote.  If Mike Bloomberg has another few extra billions burning a hole in his pocket, it would be a good use of his money to create an organization that would hire hundreds of really smart people for the sole purpose of solving this riddle.

[garbon]

Democrats really need to figure out how to get their voters out to vote.  If Mike Bloomberg has another few extra billions burning a hole in his pocket, it would be a good use of his money to create an organization that would hire hundreds of really smart people for the sole purpose of solving this riddle.

One thing that might help is if headlines or opening lines of articles about Dems/Biden continued to hammer home how Republican obstruction is the reason for failure of legislation passing.

As it is, all too easy to just seem the Dems as all at fault as that's all a quick scan of the headlines reveals.

[alfred russel]

The exit polls give very strong evidence that voters flipped.

The exit polls give very VERY strong evidence that there was no major flip:


98% of those who voted Trump in 2020 voted Youngkin in 2021
95% of those who voted Biden in 2020 voted McAuliffe in 2021

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor

That's your source, btw.  I have no idea how you could have missed that direct comparison.

The problem was that not enough of those who voted Biden in 2020 voted at all in 2021.

The exit poll indicates Biden won the 2021 electorate by 4 points. Youngkin won the 2021 race by 2. That is a significant shift in voter preference.

The numbers above tell the same story (they were part of the same exit poll) but it is tough because of rounding. The mcauliffe loss of 5% of biden voters (who were the majority) rounds to 3% of the total electorate. Youngkin lost just 2% of trump voters who were also a smaller subset of the voter pool: just those switches may have been decisive in teh election outcome -- I'd consider that significant without even looking to third party vote switching.

[Barrister]

Democrats really need to figure out how to get their voters out to vote.  If Mike Bloomberg has another few extra billions burning a hole in his pocket, it would be a good use of his money to create an organization that would hire hundreds of really smart people for the sole purpose of solving this riddle.

One thing that might help is if headlines or opening lines of articles about Dems/Biden continued to hammer home how Republican obstruction is the reason for failure of legislation passing.

As it is, all too easy to just seem the Dems as all at fault as that's all a quick scan of the headlines reveals.

Is it though?

A number of Republicans have voted in favour of the bipartisan infrastructure deal.  It's the progressive democrats who are insisting they'll only pass that bill if they also get their Trillion-plus "human infrastructure bill".  And the democrats, who have thin majorities but majorities nonetheless in both houses, who can't manage to move either bill forward.

[grumbler]

The exit poll indicates Biden won the 2021 electorate by 4 points. Youngkin won the 2021 race by 2. That is a significant shift in voter preference.

Or a significant shift in who voted, as the evidence indicates. 

The numbers above tell the same story (they were part of the same exit poll) but it is tough because of rounding. The mcauliffe loss of 5% of biden voters (who were the majority) rounds to 3% of the total electorate. Youngkin lost just 2% of trump voters who were also a smaller subset of the voter pool: just those switches may have been decisive in teh election outcome -- I'd consider that significant without even looking to third party vote switching.

Again, you assume that 100% of the people who voted in 2020 voted in 2021, which the evidence overwhelmingly show is not the case.  The problem wasn't Biden voters flipping to Youngkin (5% is quite typical, and was even less significant because of the Trump voters who flipped to McAuliffe), the problem was the Biden voters from 2020 that didn't vote at all in 2021.

I don't know why you have this contrarian desire to fly in the face of all the evidence to make points that are clearly not true.  There simply is no evidence that there was significant flipping, and lots of evidence that there was not.

[alfred russel]

Grumbler, the exit poll shows that the voters for governor in the election were Biden +4 in 2020 preference.

Considering the exit polls are the best evidence we have of what happened, and in light of a 12 point shift to Youngkin versus what Trump got in 2020, that means that:

a) 2020 Biden disproportionately failed to turn out versus 2020 Trump voters,
b) there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin.

There is going to be a lot of noise in the numbers, but it looks like the magnitude between those two effects is roughly equal - each are responsible for about half the swing to youngkin.

[Sheilbh]

Another way of putting it is that they doubled down on a shrinking demographic.  It's telling that the GOP policy agenda is increasingly centered around voter suppression and gerrymandering.  They don't feel as confident about their electoral prospects as you do.  This is a party that in the last 30 years and 8 presidential elections won the national popular vote once.  A party that just last year lost two Senate elections in Georgia.

Absolutely - but my perspective is that's a feature not a bug. They haven't chosen voter suppression and gerrymandering because they have failed to persuade, they chose it because they would rather that than to try and expand their base (W tried - but since then tax cuts and judges which can't win a majority). Though the US system privileges rural votes.

But the flipside I would worry about if I were in the Democrats that they're non winning non-referendum elections. My understanding is that in 2016 and 2020 Trump did worse than the GOP in the House and Senate, for example. They have not been able to develop a criticism of the GOP that's landing.

I also think there's a lot to Nate Cohn's point that Youngkin may be one to watch and the CRT issue is going to stay because it is fundamentally a criticism of liberalism from the left (which I think has a lot going for it) but that does mean that there is space for a liberalish (sounding) GOP candidates who won't feel like voting from Trump for the anti-Trump types even if once in power they're perfectly aligned.

[grumbler]

Grumbler, the exit poll shows that the voters for governor in the election were Biden +4 in 2020 preference.

Considering the exit polls are the best evidence we have of what happened, and in light of a 12 point shift to Youngkin versus what Trump got in 2020, that means that:

a) 2020 Biden disproportionately failed to turn out versus 2020 Trump voters,
b) there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin.

There is going to be a lot of noise in the numbers, but it looks like the magnitude between those two effects is roughly equal - each are responsible for about half the swing to youngkin.

Again, the evidence points overwhelmingly to a Democratic failure of turnout.  Almost all of the Biden voters voted for McAuliffe, so there was not significant net movement of voters to Youngkin, and the ratio of exit polled voters who said they voted Biden in 2020 (48%) almost exactly matched the percentage of all voters that voted for McAuliffe (48.40%).  Your guess that half of the swing to Youngkin was due to the fact that "there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin" just don't hunt, no matter how much you want to believe it.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm tempted to bitch about the knuckleheads who didn't bother to vote, but people could say the same thing about my failure to vote in local elections.

[alfred russel]

Grumbler, the exit poll shows that the voters for governor in the election were Biden +4 in 2020 preference.

Considering the exit polls are the best evidence we have of what happened, and in light of a 12 point shift to Youngkin versus what Trump got in 2020, that means that:

a) 2020 Biden disproportionately failed to turn out versus 2020 Trump voters,
b) there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin.

There is going to be a lot of noise in the numbers, but it looks like the magnitude between those two effects is roughly equal - each are responsible for about half the swing to youngkin.

Again, the evidence points overwhelmingly to a Democratic failure of turnout.  Almost all of the Biden voters voted for McAuliffe, so there was not significant net movement of voters to Youngkin, and the ratio of exit polled voters who said they voted Biden in 2020 (48%) almost exactly matched the percentage of all voters that voted for McAuliffe (48.40%).  Your guess that half of the swing to Youngkin was due to the fact that "there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin" just don't hunt, no matter how much you want to believe it.

I think you are an idiot who can't admit you are obviously wrong. Biden was +4 among 2021 voters (per the exit polls) and Youngkin +2. A 6 point shift is just 1 in 16 or 17 voters so I guess you can hedge that with an "almost all" but the result is the same: enjoy the almost complete republican control of your state government.

[The Larch]

Justice Department sues Texas over new voting restrictions

(CNN)The Justice Department is suing Texas over new voting restrictions that the federal government says will disenfranchise eligible voters and violate federal voting rights law.

The lawsuit filed Thursday in federal court in San Antonio challenges the law known as SB1 passed earlier this year to overhaul election procedures in the state.

The law, which bans 24-hour and drive-thru voting, imposes new hurdles on mail-in ballots and empowers partisan poll watchers, was signed by Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in September.

The Justice Department lawsuit said the law illegally restricts voters' rights by requiring rejection of mail ballots "for immaterial errors and omissions." The law also harms the rights of voters with limited English proficiency, military members deployed away from home and voters overseas, the Justice Department alleged.

"Before SB 1, the State of Texas already imposed some of the strictest limitations in the nation on the right of certain citizens to voting assistance. SB 1 further, and impermissibly, restricts the core right to meaningful assistance in the voting booth," the Justice Department said.

Earlier this year, the DOJ sued Georgia over its new voting law, similarly arguing a violation of federal voting rights law.

The Texas law passed following a contentious debate in which some Democrats left the state to try to prevent its approval. It was among a spate of similar laws in Republican-run states aimed in response to false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.

"It does make it easier than ever before for anybody to go cast a ballot. It does also, however, make sure it is harder than ever for people to cheat at the ballot box," Abbott said when he signed the law.

The lawsuit is the latest legal fight between the Biden Justice Department and Texas, which are battling in court over abortion rights, immigration enforcement and vaccine mandates.

"Finally, a Justice Department that fights for justice. Texas is torpedoing American democracy and our constitutional right to vote. We are encouraged to see the DOJ pushing back," NAACP President Derrick Johnson said in a statement to CNN about the Texas lawsuit.

President Joe Biden said during a CNN town hall in late October that the US is experiencing "the greatest assault on voting rights in the history of the United States -- for real -- since the Civil War." But the President said that pushing his massive Build Back Better plan has prohibited him from putting a major focus on voting rights, while promising to focus on the issue once his agenda is passed.

Biden also signaled he would be willing to fundamentally alter or completely get rid of the filibuster, which has effectively been used as a tool to block voting rights legislation on a federal level. He had previously supported preserving the rule.

Senate Republicans blocked the John Lewis Voting Rights Act on Wednesday from advancing when the Senate took a procedural vote on whether to open debate on the legislation. The bill which would fight voter suppression and restore key parts of the landmark Voting Rights Act, originally passed in 1965, failed in 50 to 49 vote. GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican to vote along with Democrats.

Other changes

The law introduced new mandates requiring Texans who vote by mail to provide either their driver's license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number twice: once on their absentee ballot application forms and once on the envelope in which they return their ballots.

Those numbers will then be matched against voters' records to confirm they are who they say they are -- a change from the current signature matching process.

Under the law, the Texas secretary of state's office is required to check monthly to make sure no one is on the state's voter rolls who said they were not a citizen when obtaining or renewing their driver's license or ID card.

It also makes it a felony for a public official to send someone a mail-in ballot application the person did not request, or to pre-fill any part of any mail-in ballot application they are sending to someone.

[crazy canuck]

Grumbler, the exit poll shows that the voters for governor in the election were Biden +4 in 2020 preference.

Considering the exit polls are the best evidence we have of what happened, and in light of a 12 point shift to Youngkin versus what Trump got in 2020, that means that:

a) 2020 Biden disproportionately failed to turn out versus 2020 Trump voters,
b) there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin.

There is going to be a lot of noise in the numbers, but it looks like the magnitude between those two effects is roughly equal - each are responsible for about half the swing to youngkin.

Again, the evidence points overwhelmingly to a Democratic failure of turnout.  Almost all of the Biden voters voted for McAuliffe, so there was not significant net movement of voters to Youngkin, and the ratio of exit polled voters who said they voted Biden in 2020 (48%) almost exactly matched the percentage of all voters that voted for McAuliffe (48.40%).  Your guess that half of the swing to Youngkin was due to the fact that "there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin" just don't hunt, no matter how much you want to believe it.

I think you are an idiot who can't admit you are obviously wrong. Biden was +4 among 2021 voters (per the exit polls) and Youngkin +2. A 6 point shift is just 1 in 16 or 17 voters so I guess you can hedge that with an "almost all" but the result is the same: enjoy the almost complete republican control of your state government.

There are two different characteristics you are ascribing to Grumbles.  The first is not true.  The second is a much stronger claim.

[grumbler]

Again, the evidence points overwhelmingly to a Democratic failure of turnout.  Almost all of the Biden voters voted for McAuliffe, so there was not significant net movement of voters to Youngkin, and the ratio of exit polled voters who said they voted Biden in 2020 (48%) almost exactly matched the percentage of all voters that voted for McAuliffe (48.40%).  Your guess that half of the swing to Youngkin was due to the fact that "there was a net movement of 2020 biden voters to youngkin" just don't hunt, no matter how much you want to believe it.

I think you are an idiot who can't admit you are obviously wrong. Biden was +4 among 2021 voters (per the exit polls) and Youngkin +2. A 6 point shift is just 1 in 16 or 17 voters so I guess you can hedge that with an "almost all" but the result is the same: enjoy the almost complete republican control of your state government.

And I think that you are an idiot who doesn't even know how to find the relevant data.  It doesn't matter that Biden was "+4" compared to Trump, because the exit polls showed that he got the same percentage of the vote FROM THE ACTUL VOTERS that Biden did in 2020.  The "+6" you keep talking about was the 3% who voted third candidate and the 3% who didn't vote in 2020.   It wasn't Biden voters who flipped to Youngkin.  If you actually look at the actually relevant data, instead of making up shit to avoid admitting that you are obviously wrong, you will see that there was clearly no significant "flip."  What Biden voters did flip, if there were any, were made up for by Trump voters who flipped to Biden.  McAuliffe's loss was caused by the failure of 600,000 of the missing 900,000 Democratic voters to show up at the polls.

[Syt]