What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[The Brain]

a chant of "Fuck Joe Biden" by a crowd at a Nascar circuit in Alabama

[Josquius]

But what about teh liberals forcing their political views on you like forcing you to sit next to a gaysexual.

[Josquius]

So... How about that Virginia....

[The Minsky Moment]

In 2020, Bergen County - the largest county in New Jersey went for Biden and Cory Booker (Senate) by 15+ margins; similar results for House seats.

Right now the unofficial tallies issued by the county show the Republicans leading in all the county-wide races.  The margins are very small and it appears all will lose once the mail-in votes are counted.  But the margin of victory will be narrow.

In case one thinks maybe the Republicans ran really good candidates, they didn't. Robert Kugler - running for sheriff, the top law enforcement officer for the county - is currently under criminal indictment for official corruption.  The GOP candidate for county clerk is most famous for her role as one of the Christie aides responsible for the Bridgegate scandal.

the Democrats have less than a year to get their act together or the activist base will be pining for the days when the worst they had to deal with was Manchin and Sinema.

[Josquius]

So what is it?
Turnout down? Republicans  who just hated trump and think the coast is clear? Biden getting the blame for something?

[grumbler]

Turnout was down in Virginia, disproportionately from Democrats.  I don't know why.  It's not like the Democratic candidates didn't spend money and it's not like the Republican candidates were mostly acceptable to moderate Democrats.  The new governor is a man who had never run for any office ever.  He got the nomination (after seven ballots) because he was rich enough to self-finance his campaign.

[The Minsky Moment]

Two obvious factors are that nationally Biden's approval ratings are weak and with no Trump in office, there was no patrie en danger mobilization by Democrat voters and RINO segments to come out and vote blue.

[HisMajestyBOB]

The stupid CRT scaremongering and blaming Democrats for school shutdowns during the pandemic seems to have worked in driving Republican turnout in Virginia, particularly in NOVA. McAuliffe also didn't seem to run a particularly inspiring campaign, and independents started really turning to Youngkin after McAuliffe's schools gaffe.

That doesn't explain results everywhere else. Most likely Democrat enthusiasm was dampened overall by the continual lack of progress on the big bills. Biden and the Dems came into office with lots of promises, and so far there haven't been the results voters want.

Sucks because the solution is more and better Dems in office, not GOP control.

[Admiral Yi]

Very disappointing.  I had thought the Old Dominion was solidly blue now.

[Sheilbh]

The Trump bargain paid off. They got tax cuts. They got a 6-3 Supreme Court. They have a (over-represented) rural party base with a high floor that is the only outlet for dissatisfied voters. It doesn't take many suburban voters to swing for them to win things. Basically their vote can't fall much and the Democrats don't have much room for comfort.

Democrats probably need to think about why voters who were with them one year ago have flipped - some of that is just being in office and blue states sometimes like Republican governors (America's dream: GOP executive, Democrat legislature - Massachusetts, Maryland, the 80s). But I'm not seeing much self-reflection.

[grumbler]

The Trump bargain paid off. They got tax cuts. They got a 6-3 Supreme Court. They have a (over-represented) rural party base with a high floor that is the only outlet for dissatisfied voters. It doesn't take many suburban voters to swing for them to win things. Basically their vote can't fall much and the Democrats don't have much room for comfort.

Democrats probably need to think about why voters who were with them one year ago have flipped - some of that is just being in office and blue states sometimes like Republican governors (America's dream: GOP executive, Democrat legislature - Massachusetts, Maryland, the 80s). But I'm not seeing much self-reflection.

Where are you getting the idea that voters flipped in this election?  In Virginia, the results were that Youngkin got 300,000 votes less than Trump did last year, while McAuliffe got 900,000 less votes than Biden did last year.  No flipping required.

[Razgovory]

This happens in nearly every mid-term election.  The party with the Presidency is sated and are less compelled to go out and vote.  The party out of power is now hopping mad and is much more likely to vote.  The only time I didn't see it was 2002 and that was because of the impending war with Iraq and the ongoing war in Afghanistan.

[HisMajestyBOB]

The problem now is that the GOP plans to lock in any gains as much as possible. Even "moderate" Youngkin talked about election audits. If this was 2010 and McDonnell taking office, I'd be disappointed, but eh, sometimes you lose one. Now the stakes are higher.  If the GOP controls the legislature here in 2024, will they certify the results if Virginia votes blue?

[The Minsky Moment]

t. They have a (over-represented) rural party base with a high floor that is the only outlet for dissatisfied voters. It doesn't take many suburban voters to swing for them to win things. Basically their vote can't fall much and the Democrats don't have much room for comfort.

Another way of putting it is that they doubled down on a shrinking demographic.  It's telling that the GOP policy agenda is increasingly centered around voter suppression and gerrymandering.  They don't feel as confident about their electoral prospects as you do.  This is a party that in the last 30 years and 8 presidential elections won the national popular vote once.  A party that just last year lost two Senate elections in Georgia.

[alfred russel]

The Trump bargain paid off. They got tax cuts. They got a 6-3 Supreme Court. They have a (over-represented) rural party base with a high floor that is the only outlet for dissatisfied voters. It doesn't take many suburban voters to swing for them to win things. Basically their vote can't fall much and the Democrats don't have much room for comfort.

Democrats probably need to think about why voters who were with them one year ago have flipped - some of that is just being in office and blue states sometimes like Republican governors (America's dream: GOP executive, Democrat legislature - Massachusetts, Maryland, the 80s). But I'm not seeing much self-reflection.

Where are you getting the idea that voters flipped in this election?  In Virginia, the results were that Youngkin got 300,000 votes less than Trump did last year, while McAuliffe got 900,000 less votes than Biden did last year.  No flipping required.

The exit polls give very strong evidence that voters flipped.

In 2020, for President, democrats were 36% of the electorate, republicans 34%, and independents 30%.

In 2021, the numbers for governor were identical: 36%, 34%, 30%.

The biggest changes between the years: the GOP margin among the GOP vote improved from 81% to 94%, and among independents went from -19% to +9%. It is tough to explain those swings just with changes in turnout.

When voters were asked their 2020 vote, Biden won by 4%, which is well down from the 10% he actually won by (indicating the 2021 turnout was different than the 2020 electorate), but also indicating that a lot of voters shifted from Biden to Youngkin.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/virginia

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor