What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't think there is any question the US economy has done well through since Jan 21, both relatively in comparison with peer nation and in absolute terms.  However, it is true that real wages have been stagnant and that obviously impacts perception.  The other issue is inflation.  The COVID exit inflation was a global phenomenon; the US experience was not particularly severe by international standards and inflation rates have quickly cooled off.  But that is a reduction in the current and future rate of price increases; it does not counteract the prior increase in the price level.  People are still reacting to and processing the prior level increase.  So even though from an economic point of view, inflation is no longer an urgent concern, from a political point of view, it is still highly salient.

[Admiral Yi]

Manchin announced he will not run in 24.  AOC got what she wanted, time to profit.

[jimmy olsen]

Eh, I'm still worried that Manchin might try to go No Labels

[Admiral Yi]

Eh, I'm still worried that Manchin might try to go No Labels

Why does that worry you?  What's the downside?

[Jacob]

Eh, I'm still worried that Manchin might try to go No Labels

Why does that worry you?  What's the downside?

Presumably that it'll split the Democrat vote and result in a guaranteed GOP pickup?

[Admiral Yi]

Presumably that it'll split the Democrat vote and result in a guaranteed GOP pickup?

West Virginia is like 70% Trump country.  Without Manchin it already is a guaranteed GOP pickup.

[jimmy olsen]

Eh, I'm still worried that Manchin might try to go No Labels

Why does that worry you?  What's the downside?

I mean for president. Downside is obvious

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW there is pretty strong evidence that there is a large element of partisanship to views of the economy. Republicans are simply far less likely to view the economy as bad when a Republican is in the White House--this is regardless of how the economic statistics are looking. There is a similar effect for Democrats, although less pronounced.

This has been studied quite a bit--and I don't actually think it is very accurate to cherry pick some aspects of the economy that are bad (some aspects of the economy are always bad, in some regions)--the simple reality is all real evidence shows most American voters are doing "fine" as an average in terms of personal economic situation--a not insignificant amount are doing "well or very well."

It should also be noted the GOP still are the party of people who earn over $100,000; just looking at limited local reporting, I see negative sentiment in areas around here that are red but wealthy areas--and where I know "people are not struggling." This is partisan economic sentiment.

This shouldn't be confused as saying "there are no problems with the economy", but rather--the "perception" of the economy, which is what actually matters in politics, is very significantly driven by partisanship. It is also significantly driven by the media--and due to an endless desire to "be skeptics" of the sitting President and to encourage a "horse race." Mainstream media, which at this point is far more consumed by Democrats than Republicans, has endlessly reported "economy Bad, Biden struggling" for 2 years. Any positive economic data such as on jobs, declining inflation rate, sectoral wage growth, GDP growth etc get minor blurbs, while "economy Bad, Biden struggling" are regularly front page on NYT, CNN, WaPo etc.

This absolutely does affect perception. And of course Right Wing media is doing this but cranked to 11.

To some degree it isn't the job of the MSM to campaign for the Democrats, but I do think some of their natural instincts are actively contributing to a pretty unreasonable negative view of the economy.

There is also a significant amount of "propaganda" about inflation. On Reddit and other social media I see an endless deluge of posts about grocery prices with figures that, frankly, aren't real. We know how much groceries have increased in price since 2020, but we regularly see posts on social media where people are claiming they are paying crazy amounts like "3 to 5 times" more than they did back in the Good Ole Trump days.

That just isn't real, no one is paying 5x their grocery bill unless they added 3-4 people to their household.

Part of the political issue with "most" of the negative economic sentiment not actually being directly connected to the real economy, is that it isn't easy to "fix" politically. I have seen it suggested Biden and the Democrats should "demagogue" against entities that are easy to blame for some of the high prices that really anger voters--in housing and groceries. Demonize landlords and corporations, but a common problem for modern day Democrats is the Clinton coalition brought in a lot of people that are in bed with these corporate interests, and a lifetime "center of the party" Democrat like Joe is not going to attack corporations with the vigor of an "outsider" like Bernie Sanders. Just isn't in his DNA.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - on the economy specifically because I think there's other issues with the MSM coverage especially. I think that's fair on how they've covered the economy, but I also think their coverage has been basically justifiable on the economy.

The reality is (and we see this across the Western world) inflation has been higher than it's been in 50 years and - in the US (also most of Europe) - wages haven't kept pace which means there's a real impact on people's cost and standard of living. I think it is 90% caused by the same mix of factors: covid, China (both zero covid and then increasing trade disputes), issues with globalised supply chains, one of the world's biggest producers of hydrocarbons invading one of the world's biggest producers of food. I think that makes things politically challenging for every incumbent in the world. Because there is a real hit on people, but also the policy levers that incumbents have are limited and largely outsourced to technocratic central banks who deliberately don't have the same political horizon. I I could be wrong but I think there's been studies and historically inflation is really really bad for incumbents in democracies in the way that unemployment just isn't.

The thing I find a bit more baffling and I think should cause a bit of introspection is that a lot of the predicting/economic analysts feeding into newsletters seem to have been far, far more negative about the US economy than the actual stats would seem to deserve. I'm not sure if this is basically because they represent asset holders and that is the perspective that dominates media coverage. If you had lots of tech stock it's been a bumpy few years.

[Valmy]

So the point being is that currently Biden is hurting a little bit due to the perception of weak economy, which along with his age and the current Israel-Palestine shit, make him vulnerable.

I get that currently Texas and California's brands are in the shitter and generally people across the country dislike both places immensely but I just think Gavin Newsome would be a better candidate.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, I think there's a few things going on--but Biden being a weak candidate is definitely one of them. But most of the viable alternatives also ran in the 2020 primary and consistently polled worse than Biden in a head to head (Pritzker and Newsom were never in the primary.)

There is probably a better Dem out there, but I do think there is a risk of that move, which is probably why Biden has faced very little serious pressure to not run.

[DGuller]

How much time is left for plan B anyway?  I really hope someone is working on one, even if for obvious reasons you wouldn't want to publicize it.  The 2024 elections are just too important to leave such things to chance.  If Joe kicks the bucket, surely no one thinks that Kamala Harris would be the person to save us from another four years of Trump?

[The Brain]

Is it from outer space? I mean it might as well be.

[Josquius]

The key I guess is  less about selling Biden and more, as per 2019, boosting fear of Trump?

Curious though that there's all this talk of Biden being old and his health. He seems in much better shape for his age than Trump does- both on paper and to look at them.

[The Brain]

With Trump potential death or disability makes him more attractive to sane people, with Biden it's the other way around.