What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Mind you virtually every independent candidate since 1960 has polled really high before the real election season. Lots of people like the idea of an option outside the two major parties.

Not to say RFK couldn't become a spoiler like other major independent candidates have been, but I would be surprised if he doesn't experience a crater--a big issue candidates like him always suffer from is they are more appealing in the hypothetical than in the reality, and most independent candidates either run bad campaigns or have very fringe views that get a lot of exposure closer to the campaign season.

RFK has a collection of views fairly unpopular with mainstream Democrats and mainstream Republicans, which I think will ultimately come to light as general understanding of who he is spreads.

[Admiral Yi]

And how can it be that the die hard Trumpist quartile of 65+ is smarter than everyone else?

[Josquius]

No poll this far out is worth anything yadda yadda. But still

Alex Seitz-Wald
@aseitzwald
New Quinnipiac Poll with some big 👀 on RFK Jr.: 
- Biden 39%
- Trump 36%
- RFK Jr. 22%

Kennedy has a plurality of independent voters (!!!): 36% for RFK Jr., 31% for Trump, 30% Biden.

Also not representative just a cross tab (like the independent voters - who I've always viewed suspiciously ).....But.....


Edit: Incidentally that's a similar voting pattern for Trump - peaking in working years -  with Biden doing best among the over 65s which is a bit like the patter in a few European countries for the radical right and establishment parties.

Maybe polarisation by age is just a British thing not even happening in the US too

Do they know who this guy is?
As thats insane support from the young.

[jimmy olsen]

Andy Beshear wins reelection in Kentucky.

Right to abortion enshrined in the Ohio constitution.

So far, so good tonight.

[FunkMonk]

Andy Beshear wins reelection in Kentucky.

Right to abortion enshrined in the Ohio constitution.

So far, so good tonight.

 

[jimmy olsen]

Wasserman just called the Virginia senate for Dems.

[jimmy olsen]

GOP being annihilated in the NJ legislature. They lost a plus 35 Trump seat. 

[jimmy olsen]

NY Times just called the PA supreme court for the dems.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/07/us/election-day-2023?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20231107&instance_id=107175&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=61766558&segment_id=149434&te=1&user_id=46483dfd2e0439e08007edad90672d1b

[HisMajestyBOB]

Wasserman just called the Virginia senate for Dems.

I did my part by voting straight Dem ticket. Even for the three seats on the county Soil and Water Conservation board, whatever the fuck they do.

[jimmy olsen]

Wasserman just called the Virginia senate for Dems.

I did my part by voting straight Dem ticket. Even for the three seats on the county Soil and Water Conservation board, whatever the fuck they do.

He just called the Va house for the Dems to!
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722105171684016601

[Razgovory]

Why is this happening?  Did the abortion thing just piss off democrats?

[jimmy olsen]

Why is this happening?  Did the abortion thing just piss off democrats?

Yes, pretty much.

[Josquius]

Wasserman just called the Virginia senate for Dems.

I did my part by voting straight Dem ticket. Even for the three seats on the county Soil and Water Conservation board, whatever the fuck they do.

Whatever it is, it certainly sounds like somewhere you don't want Trumpists.

[Admiral Yi]

Ohio approves getting stoned.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Why is this happening?  Did the abortion thing just piss off democrats?

That's a big part of it. In Virginia there was a perfect storm in 2021--the Dems ran a former Dem Governor, Terry McAuliffe, who ran a really bad campaign. He refused to address many of the issues Youngkin did because he "didn't like" the narrative of those issues.

Youngkin ran as a moderate conservative businessman who cared about "fixing" Virginia's schools. If you did much research on him at all, it was obvious he was a far right MAGAt but most voters don't research to that degree. He was an affable, middle aged white businessman who didn't openly say crazy things. Dems ended up losing the Governorship, and then Youngkin proceeded to start pushing very far right MAGAt stuff.

Including encroaching on reproductive rights. I think given the ever bluing demographics of Virginia it was always very doubtful Youngkin was going to build on his 2021 successes--once he showed his cards as full MAGA as Governor he was immediately a turn off to a lot of VA voters, so instead of his dream of flipping the Senate, the Dems retain the Senate and flip the House. It is unlikely unless the Dems nominate a really shitty candidate again that the GOP retains the Governorship in 2 years (reminder VA only allows Governors to server 1 term at a time, they can run again if they sit out for 4 years, but they can't run for reelection as an incumbent.)