What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[Sophie Scholl]

I'd imagine police are very, very Trump heavy in their support percentages and are unionized.

[Barrister]

I'd imagine police are very, very Trump heavy in their support percentages and are unionized.

IIRC police unions are some of the few unions that did endorse Trump.

[Savonarola]

Democrat Jamaal Bowman pulled fire alarm on Capitol Hill before House vote

Don't worry, though, he's got a totally believable excuse:

Speaking to reporters, Bowman said, "I thought the alarm would open the door."

Jamaal, Jamaal, Jamaal, you don't need to pull the fire alarm yourself; this is why you have interns and pages.  (And really, the fire alarm?  Are you in fourth grade?)

[viper37]

AOC wants to vote for the destitution of Kevin McCarthy, saying he's too weak as House President.

Announcing she will not support him is a good move.

Going through with it however... I'm not so sure.  I mean, he's weak, but they could get worst too.  I don't think it's be Gatez of Boebert, but it could be something just as bad.

[Grey Fox]

I don't think Gaetz and Boebert can actually do the job of House leader. These people are lazy grifters.

[Zanza]

Is it possible to remove the speaker without electing a new one? The GOP by itself will not be able to elect a new speaker with their paper-thin majority and the split between Freedom Caucus and remaining moderates.

[Admiral Yi]

Is it possible to remove the speaker without electing a new one? The GOP by itself will not be able to elect a new speaker with their paper-thin majority and the split between Freedom Caucus and remaining moderates.

My understanding is they are separate, stand-alone acts of Congress.

[Jacob]

So what happens if there's no speaker? How much business can be done?

[OttoVonBismarck]

A Speaker vacancy in the middle of a Congress won't be quite as complex as one at the beginning--when Congress is being seated, all of the members need to be sworn in and a rules package has to be passed. This cannot happen without a Speaker, so if you can't elect a Speaker at the beginning of the Congressional term it kind of puts the whole body into limbo.

Since this is the middle of a Congressional term, a rules package is in force and all the members are sworn in, so the House will be able to function a bit more. In fact, we have an official list of people who can server as "Speaker pro Tempore" if the office gets vacated, passed as a continuity of government matter after 9/11:

If a resolution were to pass, the House would enter into unchartered waters of making new precedent. Under continuity of Congress procedures enacted after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, there is a list of people who can act as speaker pro tempore in an event where the speakership is vacated. This was created in anticipation of a mass casualty event like a terrorist attack, but it would apply if the speakership is vacated. The irony is that list is written by the sitting speaker — so McCarthy knows who is on the list — and it is kept by the House clerk and only to be made public in the event of a vacancy.

In terms of the politics--if Gaetz or someone makes a motion to vacate, they have to hold a vote on it within two days. There are any number of procedural votes that can occur before the vote, if any of them obtain a majority, they can block the vote and kill the attempt to vacate.

If the motion to vacate reaches the floor, a simple majority of House members present voting for it, vacates the Speakership.

Now, the GOP hardliners only number around 20 from the last Speakership election. It is possible there are more who would vote against McCarthy, but how many more is not clear.

There are definitely enough who would vote for McCarthy's removal that he can't survive the vote without help from Democrats. The standard play for Democrats in such a motion vote would be to vote to vacate--since Democrats would presumably not ever vote yea on a Republican Speaker. But they are not bound to do that. Hakeem Jeffries could release the caucus and let them vote as they please, if that happens it seems fairly likely enough moderate Democrats would vote to save McCarthy.

The rumors out of Capitol Hill are that the Democrats are not very inclined to save McCarthy--they actually said they would help save McCarthy from a vote to remove if the hardliners went after him over the debt ceiling deal, but instead not long after that deal was inked, McCarthy reneged on the terms of the deal that relate to the budget.

Lots of House Democrats view that as a major betrayal by McCarthy, and they don't think he is an honest broker and aren't interested in saving his job. There is also broad Democratic view that McCarthy is too weak and craven towards the far right, as seen by his behavior around January 6th and his kow towing to what most view as a bad Biden impeachment inquiry.

The big issue for Republicans if Kevin is removed, is none of the prominent hardliners would come close to getting enough votes--which they need 214 Republicans. Most of the GOP hardliners would probably top out around 30-40 votes total. Additionally, a huge swathe of the Republican caucus loathes the hardliners for the shenanigans they've been pulling, so it is highly unlikely any of them would agree to vote in someone the hardliners view as one of their own.

There are likely some Republicans who aren't part of the recalcitrant hardliner caucus who could potentially get enough votes, figures like Steve Scalise for example, but it is genuinely difficult to guess what will happen. The House GOP caucus is tremendously fractured.

[Tonitrus]

I wonder if the Speaker Trump idea of will get floated again. 

[Syt]

[Zanza]

My understanding is they are separate, stand-alone acts of Congress.

That's one of the things we learned from the Weimar Republic: You can only remove someone from their office by finding a majority for someone else.

[DGuller]

Is it just me, or does it seem ironic that Gaetz and company needed the help of Democrats to oust McCarthy, for the crime of seeking help from Democrats to pass a spending bill?  Gaetz needed a bit more help than McCarthy as well.

What was the logic of Democrats helping oust a guy that went to them to break the deadlock within their own party?  Aren't they just making themselves irrelevant?

[viper37]

What was the logic of Democrats helping oust a guy that went to them to break the deadlock within their own party?  Aren't they just making themselves irrelevant?

See OVB's answer to that a bit above.  He wasn't reliable.

[The Minsky Moment]

McCarthy burned a lot of bridges over the past few months.  He consistently pandered to the worst elements of his caucus.  I agree the Democrats should support a GOP speaker candidate if needed to restore function to the House, but I fully understand why they don't trust McCarthy.