What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[alfred russel]

Right, the biggest defense for Biden's action is literally nothing else will be done in the current political environment.

So Biden can't use broad executive authority to impose tighter lending restrictions or even just disclosure on the future prospects of the major / university combination? This is all he can do?

[alfred russel]

With perfect hindsight would means testing have worked?  Honest question.

A high net worth owner can lay off staff due to covid-induced lack of business just as easily as a lower net worth individual can.

I think the issue is the amount of high net worth folks who had personal LLCs, who took large PPP loans that they just pocketed rather than use for wages. Or, slightly less noxious but still far from ideal, who took large PPP loans and paid for wages when their LLC weren't really distressed, meaning the PPP went straight to the bottom line as increased profit.

For the former, do you know how that worked?  I would have expected there to be *some* relationahip between payroll and the loan amount, but OVB is saying only 25% of PPP loans went to wages.  I personally don't know.  Did rich LLC guys say "I have one employee, me, and I made $2 million so lend me $2 million to pay myself?"

I don't - I'm seeing a fair amount of suggestions that it happened at scale, but I don't *know*. I'm definitely interested in having that confirmed / debunked one way or the other.

As to the latter, how would you know ahead of time if a loan recipient is going to be profitable or not?

You wouldn't, but I perhaps forgiveness could be tied to profitability?

The amount of the loans were capped at $100k per employee.

They could have tied forgiveness to profitability but they didn't. The situation was that there wasn't a ton of time to work out the most equitable and cost effective legislation. The perception was that the entire economy was melting down and while large and wealthy businesses had access to financing, the bulk of companies did not and we were facing massive layoffs in the very short term. The theory was the government was just going to pay payroll for a little while and that could keep everything going while there were lockdowns.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAgcx61xdyw

Democrat Native American Mary Peltola projected to defeat Sarah Palin for Alaska's sole Congressional seat (I think) in special election.

Not that big a deal as they will just rerun this in November, and I expect turnout was very low, but still some nice signs about how the midterms might go.

[mongers]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAgcx61xdyw

Democrat Native American Mary Peltola projected to defeat Sarah Palin for Alaska's sole Congressional seat (I think) in special election.

Not that big a deal as they will just rerun this in November, and I expect turnout was very low, but still some nice signs about how the midterms might go.

Yes, the Trumpist rump republican party is so extreme, that it'll probably drive lots of undecideds/former moderate republicans into the democrat (anything but Trump) camp.

[alfred russel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAgcx61xdyw

Democrat Native American Mary Peltola projected to defeat Sarah Palin for Alaska's sole Congressional seat (I think) in special election.

Not that big a deal as they will just rerun this in November, and I expect turnout was very low, but still some nice signs about how the midterms might go.

Yes, the Trumpist rump republican party is so extreme, that it'll probably drive lots of undecideds/former moderate republicans into the democrat (anything but Trump) camp.

in the wide open primary, republicans got 57% and democrats about 17%. Republicans finished 1 and 2, an independent was 3, and the top democrat was 4.

The independent withdrew from the 4 person run off...which left 2 republicans vs. 1 democrat. The reason republicans lost is the top republican in the ranked choice voting runoff was sarah palin who is super unpopular.

I think the result tells us that very republican states will go democrat if the republicans nominate especially bad candidates, which is meaningful because they nominated a bunch of them in high profile races, but I don't htink it tells us the party is now a rump party or being repudiated.

[Valmy]

Alaska is kind of a weird state anyway. And besides the Democrats now face the daunting task of having to pull this miracle of a second time in two months.

The Republicans are underperforming right now but a lot can change in two months. In order to believe they are truly declining they will need to underperform for a few cycles in a row.

[Valmy]

I also just want to point out that ranked choice voting is so awesome and we should have it nationwide. Maine and Alaska have shown us the way.

[The Brain]

Alaskans are especially rank.

[Josquius]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAgcx61xdyw

Democrat Native American Mary Peltola projected to defeat Sarah Palin for Alaska's sole Congressional seat (I think) in special election.

Not that big a deal as they will just rerun this in November, and I expect turnout was very low, but still some nice signs about how the midterms might go.

Yes, the Trumpist rump republican party is so extreme, that it'll probably drive lots of undecideds/former moderate republicans into the democrat (anything but Trump) camp.

We said the same in 2016.
Fingers crossed 2020 wasn't a one-off.

[Valmy]

Did we say that in 2016? The situation seems much different now. Back then Trump was promising 10,000 unicorns for every fairy princess.

[Sheilbh]

I think people definitely said it in 2016. That was the Muslim ban, Mexico's sending rapists, "I alone can fix it" etc Trump.

I even believed it in 2016

[crazy canuck]

I think most did - including the pollsters.  His victory was a big surprise shock.

[Valmy]

I think people definitely said it in 2016. That was the Muslim ban, Mexico's sending rapists, "I alone can fix it" etc Trump.

I even believed it in 2016

I don't remember it that way at all. Trump was calling out corruption and the failure of the elites and making long lists of promises he was going to fulfill. Sure I knew he wasn't going to do any of that and it was all bullshit but many people figured they would take a chance on him.

That dynamic doesn't exist anymore.

And as far as being shocked, the poll margin going into the election was very small and we were all nervous as fuck. CDM specifically pointed out how grim things were in key places like Pennsylvania.

Sure it was very distressing he won and the margin was extremely thin but it was hardly something that came out of nowhere. That entire election was horrifying, not just the result. If Hillary had barely clawed through, like it appeared she would, it would have only been marginally more comforting.

Back then he had a lot of shallow support but most of that is gone and now he has his true believers and while there are a shitload of them, between 30-40% of the population, he doesn't have a lot of space to grow that at this point. It was easier for him when he could still be an outsider and an unknown quantity people could project shit on.

[Valmy]

I think most did - including the pollsters.  His victory was a big surprise shock.

I recall the polls being very close throughout with Hillary threatening to pull away a few times only for it to tighten up again.

[DGuller]

I hope Trump's 2016 victory inoculated just enough people against a repeat.  Hopefully at least some liberals learned to take the threat seriously, because clearly most didn't, and at least some conservatives would recoil from seeing what came.